The Wolf Of All Streets - BITCOIN COLLAPSES! $11 TRILLION ERASED | GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS COMING? | BLACK MACRO MONDAY

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin held strong through the fire last week. Two of the worst consecutive days in market history before seeing a significant drop on Sunday, leading many to believe it's the canary in the coal mine for a massive Black Monday 2.0 futures opened extremely down but have bounced since what is going to happen today. Does Trump actually have a plan? And what does this mean for Bitcoin and markets moving forward?

There couldn't be a better setup for a Macro Monday than we have today with markets opening mid show. We've got Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger and James Lavish here to unpack it all. This is a Macro Monday not to be missed. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. What's up everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel

and hit that like button. Without further ado, Dave, Mike and James. Mike, here's your flowers. What, from my grave? All of our graves. Listen, it's not like you ever necessarily wanted to be right, but we have a long way to go to prove if Bitcoin is going to 10,000 or Ethereum to 1,000, a lot of the predictions

you've had, but directionally, we're clearly seeing exactly what you've predicted for a long time, even if this is just the normal mean reversing correction that you've talked about. Now, we're taking the elevator instead of the escalator to get that there, but we're likely in bear market, bear market territory for S&P, NASDAQ, Dow and such. Go ahead. So I think that's a good place to start. I just want to show one screen and point out why I think I want to go with the iteration of, you know, if you keep saying the same things sometimes eventually you're right. And this is a chart I pulled up from a year ago, and actually I think I started publishing

on two years ago. It's just a simple stock market cap to GDP, which pushed back on it again. And also I overlay the S&P 500 divided by gold. I think they're both going to one question of when. Will I live this seed? Will it happen this year? Will it happen in 10 years? They're just starting to roll over. The key thing is we've had a situation, US equities in this country, the most overvalued since 1929 in the US or 1989 in Japan. You don't have to put that screen on anymore if you want. What I think is happening now, first let's talk about the good news and a trader standpoint. This is an awesome trading environment for the tactically orientated.

Yet most people aren't and they shouldn't be unless that's their primary profession. Otherwise, it's too encompassing and taxing. Now Dave and you and James can do that well, but most of our listeners I don't think are full-time traders and if they are they have bots doing it for them. But the key thing that's happened, good news overnight, is we did get the VIXX to 60. We do have a gap lower in S&P 500. I remember when that happened in August and James and you and Dave were all buying Bitcoin around 50. Now it's 77. The point is the difference with how you started is when I made the call for 100,000 Bitcoin in 2020 when it was around 10 after you'd seen what Michael Saylor was doing and what

the Fed was doing and we were doing the biggest liquidity pump in history, making a call to 100 grand was a bit profound. It'd never been there. Now I'm just making a call for normal reversion. And that's what I pointed you in on the chart. That for normal reversion. And that's what I pointed you on a chart. That's normal reversion. And do we have a catalyst for it? Yes.

So the key thing I want to point out is something, I got my MBA in 93 at DePaul University. It was so cool because it was a five minute walk from the Board of Trade. So I went to school at night. I worked in the trading pits during the day. I was an awesome intellectually stimulating environment, a little bit taxing mentally or physically.

But the thing I learned in grad school is how great free trade was. I mean, this is all academic. And that's what you still hear people repeat. It's just BS. It hasn't worked for the US. The thing I learned in trading pits was, yeah, everybody wants free trade

as long as they can run net exports to the US. We're shutting that off. So let's not complain about it. Let's point out the facts. We shut it off fast. And what does it mean? Complete global reset, which is happening this morning. Gina pointed out how that's going to really crunch profits for the US multinationals. And I encourage everybody to listen to the Scott Besson interview this weekend with, the Scott Besson interview this weekend with, what was his name? Tucker Carlson.

Yeah, Tucker Carlson. And the key thing that he pointed out is things that have been resonating with me forever. First of all, we have leaders in this country who are some of the best traders and market people on the planet compared to as Zena is the chief economist, chief editor at Economist, Zinni Meadows pointed out that Mr. Z was an economic accountant. These people get markets and they get where it's going on. Mr. Besson pointed out the top 10% of his country owns 80% of stocks. They did not vote for Trump, but the last 50% who want gas prices lower, which I'll make a prediction, I think the average gas price is going to drop to two bucks by the midterms.

They want interest rates lower so they can buy a house and get a mortgage, even sell a house and mortgage. I suspect the average mortgage rate will drop to 4%. And lower inflation, which I think will be negative by the time we get to the next election and a CPI basis midterms, which is just a normal reversion. So the key thing that we've done so far is we added $12 trillion of market capital stock market last year, and we just wiped that out. Not a big deal.

But now you're going to see that effect to consumer spending. And part of the reason we pumped up so much was in the massive fiscal, that's been shut off, and the Fed started easing, which we all pointed out the risks of doing that. So I'll point out right now from our morning meeting, both Ana and Gina and Ira are our chief strategists at the Fed can't ease right now and they won't. And they may not even in the May meeting, they'll wait for some kind of event, which means the first iteration. Market keeps going down, tide goes out, and might force them to ease.

And so to me, that's what I think people are missing is we've reached that inflection point in history of too much liquidity inflation, the can't ease, markets up too high. We've reached the inflection point of too much fiscal stimulus that's being cut off. And now the rest of the world's facing this recession because I like to point out is the whole world became completely dependent,

increasingly dependent on exporting to the US. It's being shut off. Now like it or not, that's the facts of what's happening. And unfortunately, like you pointed out, it might be happening too fast, but this is where we are. In the meantime, we're going to have a great trading environment, but I'll stick with that call. Bitcoin is one of the most highly speculative leveraged assets. It went up a lot and it's just mean reverting. Where does it stop? Well, tell me when the stock market stops. And we're learning that it's much more leveraged beta

or much more leveraged stock market than digital gold. Dave, I'm not gonna let you lose your mind on that one yet because we're gonna get to Bitcoin in a minute. I still wanna stay on the macro for a second just to give some perspective about the last two days of trading, top five worst consecutive days of all time. If we get a significant down day today, three, four%, 5%, it would officially be the worst three-day

slide I think in the history of markets. Pretty astounding when you take a look at that just to see how global markets are reacting today because they've obviously been open. You can see outside of Saudi Arabia, it's a slaughterhouse across the world, circuit breakers firing everywhere. Singapore, worst day in 30, 40 years. That's happening across the world, circuit breakers firing everywhere, Singapore worst day in 30, 40 years, that's happening across the board. Not trying to be hyperbolic,

but I just want people to put the context of how bad these past few days have been, leading to wonder what will happen in the next few days. Now, I think Besson's is very smart, Mike. I thought that interview was great. Yeah. But I will all, and I agree with you. I think actually the average Trump voter is probably cheering for this at the moment. You've seen it

everywhere, but I disagree with you that the rich people didn't vote for him and I think there's a lot of pain and anger there. Well, it's in the masses that'll make a difference in the polls. I mean, I love going to the Grenin-Chek and Obrich Forum in October right before the election and vote. Everybody said, why vote? It doesn't matter up there. It's mostly a democratic leaning state and they were voting for Kamala. But I'm from the heartland.

I'm from the rust belt. And they don't, you know, remember when I first said I was moving to New York, people would say, why are you going to New York? Most people there present New York and they vote against New York. And New York means a high stock market and all those rich people. Yeah. Who wants to go next?

So I'd like to take a guess. I'm going to ignore the foolishness, because I agree with- We're not going to argue beta. Well, let me just fire up Dave a little bit. Let me fire up Dave. Because Gina mentioned it this morning, Gina Martin-Adams. OK, what did she say? She mentioned the US stock market is the highest beta stock

market, and she mentioned Saudi Arabia is one of the lowest. And he expects that to continue in the market, de-globalization US stock market continues suffering. And then she just mentioned it's the highest beta, and it's 65% of market cap and that's probably going to drop. Well it's certainly when you're talking about stock beta, of course the S&P is the beta engine in the world.

I mean, look, let's give some perspective. Before we actually talk about anything else, let's talk about Black Monday because I ran program trading technology, was on the trading desk. On that Monday, I have very clear recollections of what happened, had to testify in front of the Brady Commission in terms of the causes of the crash and what went on. But what a lot of people don't know, a few fun facts, Hong Kong was closed for a week after Black Monday, right? You know, the US sneezed and the rest of the world caught pneumonia. You know, as bad as it felt in

the US, it was so much worse everywhere else. So what Gina Martin Adams is, is she was probably out of grade school, you know, not born yet. I don't know. But you know, I talked to most people in this industry aren't around as long as I have been. It is 100% true that if the US did continue down and, you know, the hit limit down on the futures after the last two days, which it didn't. And we'll talk about why I think that is in a second. But had it done so, the rest of the world would have been catastrophic. And that is true from a stock market perspective. So that's thing number one. Thing number two is part of the reason that it was so catastrophic doesn't exist today. So why did I say Kramer was wrong over the weekend?

Because Kramer predicting a crash, because in 1987, between five and 8% of the entire market cap of the S&P was portfolio insured. What did that mean? That meant that somewhere between five and 10% down triggered between five and 8% additional of the entire market cap, additional forced selling. So what happened was the markets opened down

and people had to sell futures and there just wasn't enough liquidity to buy it and it kept going down. And then it paused in the afternoon and then margin calls came in at three and there was literally no one left to buy. And I sat and I watched all sorts of funny stories. People literally wouldn't answer the phone because remember, when you wanted to sell

something in NASDAQ, you had to actually pick up a phone to consummate the trade. So you know, it was, there's a lot of shit going on. None of that exists. People point to circuit breakers is the reason. Look, I helped design the circuit breakers, right? And limit up, limit down. I sat in that committee. I understand that wasn't necessarily,

that's not really the issue if it was a fundamental lead drop, but it is something to stop forced selling liquidation. By the way, in crypto, we don't have that. And so Bitcoin's drop was because the highest, I don't know the data because I only saw pieces of it, but I saw almost half a billion dollars of Bitcoin liquidations over the last 24 hours. Now that matters because even when we see a billion dollars of liquidations,

Bitcoin is usually three or four hundred million. So, you know, its percentage of total liquidations is way higher. Somebody or some people got caught and we saw a wave of forced liquidation selling in Bitcoin, which is interesting and the markets could have to digest that. But understand the market mechanics here. The other thing that changed since 87, which people don't like to talk about. To add to that, Dave, the market mechanics of that, and people are wondering why would it sell off on a Sunday?

Well, because you've got hedge fund managers, massive hedge fund managers, who are expecting to have very large margin calls on Monday and what can they sell on Sunday? Like what is the only asset that they can sell on Sunday? Right, exactly. Well that was what I thought and I still think that's true and I think that people were surprising. Everybody, I think a large number of people figured the administration would blink over the weekend as opposed to double. Right. And so those and so that's the proximal cost. But let's go through that. Let's get to

it later. I just want to talk a little bit, teeny bit more about mechanics so that everyone understands where I'm coming from. The other change that was made from 87 was that they established the presidents, like some funny group like the presidents working group on capital markets, AKA on Wall Street, they called it the plunge protection team. And they have the ability to buy futures, they have the ability to buy stock,

they can do whatever the hell they want to reassure markets. Now, I'm not saying they did it, no one talks about it, but it certainly feels like the plunge protection team swung into action last night when it was looking like it was going to go towards a limit down and it didn't and we're down about two percent now across two to three percent on now every significant when it opened yeah right now that's a significant bounce personally is it a dead cat bounce you know to to quote mike because i tend to agree with mike i think it probably is a dead cat bounce the To quote Mike, because I tend to agree with Mike. I think it probably is a dead cat bounce.

The real question is, if you're Scott Bessent and you're Donald Trump and you're sitting here, you want, if you're gonna see the stock market revalue lower, you want it to get orderly re-lowered. And as long as it's orderly, they don't care that much until people start screaming. The other last point I wanna make on this opening salvo is what do they truly care about? They care about where people are thinking in about 17 months. They don't give a crap what they think about today.

They don't freaking care. And if you think they're American, their people say oh it's gonna kill them in the election. I'm sorry you have millions of people protesting based off of paid scripts this weekend, none of which made any sense. In fact, most of it was based on a lie. And now there'll be more people will be protesting, you know, whatever. I mean, protests don't matter, because I think all the Republican voters like me are look at this and say, you know what, in 2020, we said, you know, we were tired of mean tweets, we were tired of protests, but then we saw Afghanistan, and then we saw the border get opened up,

and then we saw a lot of other things that we've, so we saw our, my own industry destroyed, we saw free speech being censored, we saw all this stuff, and it's like, you know what? No more Mr. Nice Guy, and I think the average Trump voter doesn't give a crap about any of this stuff, and so you're not moving anybody, and the center,

can kind of starting to see what's going on. So what you're getting is look, they need to do a reset. I mean, they'd want to reset. There's no question about it. My concern with this reset is I think it could have been done better, done in a way not to screw up capital markets. I tend to think Bill Ackman, he wrote a long screen this weekend, Cliff Astness wrote a long screen this and that which if you're sitting in, if you're Bo or if you're David Sacks, you're saying, there's something that needs to happen here. Don't be surprised. You really, really shouldn't be surprised. Remember, follow the money guys and understand what's going on. I would not be remotely surprised to see almost anything happen. Based off of what's going on, this feels like state actors who are moving into Bitcoin mining are just pushing the accelerator at a time that they think they can cripple for profit American miners.

That's what it feels like. Now, I don't know, James, I'm curious, what do you think? It doesn't make any sense otherwise, really, financially. You know, it just doesn't make financial sense for these miners to be throttling forward like this. They would be pivoting to the high-speed computing. But look, going all the way back to the top, thinking about what percent needs, what Trump wants. And what percent needs is he needs to push out on the curve. But he doesn't control the curve, and neither does the Fed.

The curve is controlled by bond traders, But he can't, he doesn't control the curve and neither does the Fed. You know, the curve is controlled by bond traders and it's controlled by their appetite for duration and interest rate risk, right, Mike? And that's just reality. And so, but what can they do? So if you look, I'm not the guy who's over here saying that, that Trump is playing 4D chess, whatever. They're simple levers, though, that you can allow to be pulled. And there's a legend that goes around.

I'm sitting in Dallas, and I remember this story that goes around in Fort Worth, it was Sid Bass who was talking to Richard Rainwater. For those who don't know who these people are, the Bass family is the richest family in Fort Worth and many billions of dollars. And Richard Rainwater is the most successful hedge fund manager in Fort Worth. But there's a story that goes around that the Bass family was buying up all these buildings in downtown Fort Worth back many decades ago and letting them just kind of fall into ruin and just not putting any money into them. And they're just getting worse and worse.

And Rainwater said, what are you doing? You're ruining your investment. You're ruining your investment values. And Sid said, you know what your problem is, Richard? Your problem is you don't know how to be really rich. And so the point was, he said, I'm gonna let everything fall, fall and ruin. Let it become, you know, lower the property rates, the property values, now

you go in there and buy the whole thing. And they did. And so now the whole downtown Fort Worth is called Sundance Square, and they own it. And so that's kind of a little bit of the thinking here, is let this stuff fall to ruin. And what do we get out of it? You know, well, I'm not worried about the stock market now. I'm worried about the, you know, the inflation. I'm worried about the interest rates and resetting the debt because we have $9 trillion of debt that's coming due this year, right?

We're back over 4%, by the way. So if the goal is way diminished debts after what we've seen for the past four days, rates should be at 3.5%. So that's not even working, by the way. Well, it's not yet. But there can be economic pain. I agree with both Dave and Mike that there

can be economic pain between now and midterms. And what they want, what Trump really wants, he wants the big prize. He wants the grand prize, which is, I fixed the trade imbalances, I balanced the budget, I lowered the debt, I got us into surplus. Well, how does he do that? He does it by raising revenues,

and whether that has to do with just nominal revenues raising because of the tariffs or it has to do with a crash in the economy and knowing that the Fed's going to lower the rates, they're going to come in and print money, we're going to balance the budget and by the time I'm leaving office, we're going to have a surplus. We're going to be, we're, we're going to be moved out on the, on the curve on our, on our treasuries and we're going to have a lower rate on our, our interest rate on our, um, and expense on our bottom line there. And, uh, and I'm going to be seen as the president that fixed the problem. And that's the golden,, that's the big prize.

Can you get there? Well, I don't, I personally don't think he can. Yeah. I just, I don't think they can. Can I ask one question, James? And this is the simple one. If you push us into a recession, tax revenues go down. And they do.

That's my next question is how does that align with massive tax cuts? Well, it only aligns if if if if the if the tariffs make up so much of that tax loss, it's the only way it works. But I don't see that math work. I'm not saying this is this playbook is going to work. I'm just saying that I think they're willing to I think they're willing to go there.

That's the point. I agree. I don't want to make the point because from Bitcoin perspective, everyone worries about sound money. From gold's perspective, people worry about sound money. And I don't see any way around this other than monetary printing. I think the question is, where does that monetary printing go? and what does it do for? So look, the only strategy, and I've said this on the show many times, so let's be really – this is simple – is deregulation is the most important thing that Doge can do. You're going to find, okay, let's be expansive. I mean at the outside, absolute tippy-tippy top of what they could be able to cut of spending

without people whining and complaining and screaming in the streets and, you know, and the hanging effigies of Elon Musk is fraud and waste and some abuse. And yeah, there's probably billions of fraud. There's not enough, there's not enough to balance the budget. Exactly. So the absolute outside of what they could cut by Musk's own words is probably half a trillion dollars. That's the outside and they're probably gonna not gonna get more than $100 billion of remember, remember, do remember, do remember, Dave, we have we have a trillion 1.2

trillion dollars of interest expense annually now 1.2 trillion in interest expense that That could be brought down severely if we get back towards ZERP. I don't think we should go to ZERP. I think it'll only exacerbate the issue and then we'll have a catastrophic event later. But that's the thought, right? I think the two things that they're gonna try to force

are as close to ZERP as possible, get half a billion, half a trillion dollars of waste, whatever, give back most of that in the form of no tax on tips and paying people in the middle class. And so you're going to end up with more monetary printing. The question is, where does it go? The monetary printing that happened in the last wave, a huge chunk of it went towards globalization. Companies spent a lot of money. And this is why people are pissed. People, a lot of Trump supporters spent a lot of money moving from China to

Vietnam, for example. It's not cheap to build a factory. I don't care where you're building a factory. Maybe it's cheaper in Vietnam than it is in Texas, but it's still not cheap. And so a lot of money got spent on a lot of stuff, right? You know, I think he has this deal with Taiwan Semi to build here. You think they haven't spent a ton of money in Taiwan? You think they're not saying, well, wait a minute, you're going to kill us before you're going to, or we're going to do this? This is a problem. So there's all sorts of little bits here. Well, there's, there's another thing, but just going, just extending on that, Dave, even if it does work, it takes years and years and years to build the fact, to source the land, to design the property, to build the property. Regulation is still in place also. It's not happening by midterms.

It's not happening by midterm. The most important person in America is probably Lee Zeldin because right now it takes 18 months just to get an environmental impact statement. That doesn't mean you're going to get the permit. It means it's a statement when you want to build a factory. You know, to build something. They have to get all of this crap down and it is non-trivial to say the least. Now I'm not saying that I want them to butcher the environment. I mean frankly it's most of that time is bureaucratic waste. It's sort of like anyone who's done any building locally, knows how the permitting process works and knows what it is. It doesn't mean we don't want standards with you, right? You know, I live in Florida, you know, we saw what happens when you allowed people to build buildings without standards, right? You know, they fall, right? It's, it's not good. So, but that doesn't mean you have to have six bureaucrats with different paper stamps going around it. But look, you don't build that stuff that quickly.

The point is, is that the part of the narrative of everything you said of what he wants to accomplish, a lot of it is feasible. What is not feasible is balancing the budget unless we do something like basically sunsetting old rules, right? And understanding what those costs are, and cutting out the ability and doing the things that Doge should really do. I mean, this is great speech from Obama in 2012,

basically saying literally exactly the same shit that Elon has said. And unless you get both parties behind it, and you're not because of this environment, it's gonna be really, really hard. And so hopefully, they can cut regulation and create an economic boom. But that created economic boom is really hard when even,

look, you look at Tesla. Made in America, American car, 70% to 80% of the car is made in America. Assembled in America. 20% to 30% of the car is made in America. 20 assembled in America. 20 to 30% of the parts are made by factories outside of America because American factories don't exist to build them. And so you end up destroying supply chains and they're going to figure it out. Yeah, and you want what Elon

came out very clearly alongside a lot of rich people who are getting hurt that he wants a global free trade alliance that these tariffs should go to zero. It's a negotiating tactic. Meanwhile, you have Navarro who constructed this, wanting to blow everything up, keep them forever. You have Besant saying this is about negotiation and fair deals. Trump's saying he'll never change.

And you have Lutnick saying let's bring it all back home, external revenue service. So the issue here is messaging. So the issue is, let's point out, be careful about complaining versus the facts. We have the highest tariffs in this country right now in 100 years. We have the most expensive stock market in 100 years and last recent example is 1989 in Japan like some of us who traded Japanese government bonds. On one measure. Market cap to GDP and even some of the things that Gina pointed out,

just pure PE versus the rest of the world, she pointed out a month ago, we are on a scale of about 20 with the top. So, I think- And I'm gonna share this so you can see this. And I want you to talk to this too, Mike, because this is important too. You see that?

Yeah. Not yet. Yep, bringing it up now. Right, this is so, I mean, this is where the forward PE ratio has come down quite a bit. Is it back to normal levels? It's getting pretty close, you know, but it was at historic highs. It's true, however. So these things don't bottom out on a dime without significant fiscal and monetary stimulus.

That trigger is shifted off, turned off. That's what I'm trying to point out. We are looking at just two years ago, the highest inflation in some of our lifetimes. Those of us who live in the 70s saw it, but we are younger. It's what's changed. And now we have a paradigm shift with the rest of the world's post-World War II paradigm shift.

The rest of the world depending on us for defense, most of it, and to export to, that's being shut off. I'm pointing out this is a paradigm shift to get those valuations to cheap. So, give you an example I learned in commodities. Commodities go down because they go up. One example is copper. Why is copper down more than a buck from its highs, 537? I'm an ex-trader. I would have been stopped on the way up, and I guarantee I would have put a short back on it around 537, and now we've already dropped the full point. That's what's tilting over to the US stock market and all risk assets. The most expensive housing market versus income ever is being flipped back. This all helps Trump's constituents.

My point is this trade is early days. It's just getting started. The concept of potentially pulling back on those tariffs is only going to happen if the market forces them by going lower or there's significant negotiation. It's just what's happening now. So we're gonna have some great trading environments. We're gonna have some great short covering rallies. Just last night was a great bottom indication.

The VIX got to 50, we had a 60, we had a gap lower. The point is in the macro, risk assets are probably gonna get cheap, like they usually do in commodities. I mean, we're nowhere near that because we've reached that point of inflection. Like we pointed out last year, when the Fed started easing and the stock market's in a tear, we're nowhere near that because we've reached that point of inflection. Like we pointed out last year when the Fed started easing and the stock market is in a tear.

We predicted this, pointed out the risks of that, and it's happening. What stops it? You keep pointing. I mean, and so here's a one to 10 scale what matters for treasury yields. Inflation, stock market rally, the mark of the debt is a one. Just look at right now, 1.64 in China. By the way, there're somewhat, if you can figure it out, some, I think Goldman Sachs says their debt to GDP is over 300%. In Japan, it's maybe 200%. My point is, let's get through the first iteration in this cycle right now is to get everything cheap, which is a normal cycle after getting too expensive. Run that cycle right now. You give me a good reason for that to stop. Fine, I'll give you bounces, I'll give you stops. I think like the next key place in cryptos is

Ethereum being flipped in by tether. Right now it's 1500, it gets around 1200, gets flipped in by tether, but that shows that massive significant technology in this space. We're all learning that why do you need to have things like XRP when you got a great crypto dollar like USDC or Tether to transact instantly? Why do you need this peer to peer capital that Bitcoin was supposed to be when you have crypto dollars? That, to me, is what's happening.

And again, I just think, point out, we have to wipe out many zeros off of some of these silly expensive Dogecoins and things like that. So this is just where we're going right now, which trade accordingly, and let's point out, it's just a thing I've enjoyed seeing. I saw a lot of the chats when the market went after, on Wednesday, Thursday morning, everybody's complaining. I obviously knew they were losing money. Okay, I'm sorry.

But those of us who've been overweight risk off assets, who are supposed to analyze the market openly, I just point out on a year today basis right now, gold's up 15%, Bitcoin's down 18%. I just expect simply that to widen. You know what's one of the next best performance? The US Treasury 20 plus long bond, it's 7%. Yeah, it's hurting a little bit this morning. Just fully expect that to continue.

Now let's think about the time we get to midterms. This will be over. The market would have stabilized. The Fed will probably ease probably a couple hundred base points. And by the way, they don't go 25 when it gets bad, they go 50 or more. But it's got to get really bad for it to go that much. Okay, that's the next topic. Okay, first of all, I just brought up the Ethereum chart when you mentioned it, just so people realize how bad that is back to the 2018 bull market highs. Just absolutely astounding. But I want to talk about the Fed

because we have an emergency meeting, which I don't know is really an emergency meeting. I think it was actually announced last week, closed door meeting today. But Trump, a lot of people believed on Wednesday when he announced the tariffs that this was a high stakes game of chicken with China and likely with the Fed because he continues to say that Powell needs to cut, Powell needs to cut, Powell cut pal needs to cut right and pal keeps saying he's not going to cut he's focused on exactly China came back with 37 percent tariffs and pal immediately in his statements on Friday said I'm worried about inflation my mandate is inflation we have this interesting scenario where the rate cuts are being priced in more now for the coming months.

See, you can pull it up. But Powell, who's been very honest, you can disagree with Powell's moves, but you can't disagree that he's said exactly what he's going to do the whole time. He's saying he ain't going to cut and he's worried about inflation. And by the way, I would also make the point worth discussion. I don't think Fed rate cuts matter at all right now. I think they only matter with massive QE and fiscal stimulus, but we are fiscally dominated and rate cuts already they cut before and bonds went the wrong way interest rates went up.

So the Fed the Fed will be forced to cut by the market going down and wiping out all that extraordinary wealth created last year. Cryptos are the riskiest. It's already there. I mean, 11 trillion gone, like you said. That's exactly, but you got to get cheap.

No, that was too expensive. Lessons of history. Oh, you're saying we're back to the mean. Now we got to get cheap. Exactly. Now let's get cheap. Go ahead, James. So for people who are wondering what this means, if you look at the dates there on the

left, you can see 12, 10, 10 25 that's one of the fed meetings and so this is saying that um here are the next fed meetings and you're expecting there's a there's almost a 50 chance of a cut in may there's um you know over there's a 100 chance of a cut in in june but it's saying this pricey and 1.4 cut. So now it's saying that by the time we get to December 10th, there's four point, you know, there's over four cuts basically because of the probabilities of how they weight these things. But the market's telling you they want, they want, you know,

four cuts, which is 1% taken off Fed funds rate. But like Mike said, like this, when they come, when they go and they cut and they have to cut They'll do it mid meeting and they'll probably do it 50 basis points and that's and that's the that that's not gonna happen today this this emergency meeting that That they're having is probably just it. It's just a cover You're asking where they got to say well the markets were in turmoil right now the equity market We don't control that we're gonna meet and see and talk about it.

You know? Well, I can tell you really quickly just not to interrupt, but the S&P did just, I mean, the markets did just open. The S&P futures were down to something percent while they're already been down about another 2% since the open. So no bounce. Follow through. Yeah. I mean, the only people who knew that was going to happen are the ones who have all the retail orders. And given the way the world works today

versus the way the world worked, you know, 20 years ago, 20 years ago, they were actually orders called into brokers. So there are people on the floor, knew there are people in Wall Street, knew the futures would have been more accurate. The reason you get these gaps around the open now is because most of these open orders are electronic and individual brokers and traders don't know anything about them. They're done via online.

So you get a wave of retail selling. It catches people, I won't say by surprise, but they just know about it. I think most traders are smart enough to understand that this can happen. So we do have a different type of market than we used to, and that's non-trivial and so that's why you see a lot of that. So that's why you see dislocations around the open now that you didn't used to and that's from the futures nearly as much and that's why around between 245 you know 315 at some point when margin calls start happening you see a dislocation at that period of time as well

on days like today. You know, I said it on Thursday on the Crypto Town Hall, it then happened the Thursday afternoon. I repeated, reminded people again on Friday, it happened again Friday afternoon, and I'm gonna say it again this morning, although I'm not gonna be on Crypto Town Hall because I'm at the New York Stock Exchange

for our Security Traders Annual Conference, but the- What a place to be today. Oh, yeah. Well, I'm wearing you might have noticed, you know, black wearing my my full black. So for Black Monday, I got my Johnny Cash outfit on. Now it's a New York look to look. It's the stock market has is comprised of of a lot of stocks, but the indices are dominated by a few stocks.

That's why it matters. I mean, there were some stats the other day about number of stocks making 52-week lows that were extraordinary. You wouldn't think that with the market having performed as well. Mike makes the comment that the market is... Whether we've gotten the market back down to fair or whatever the number is, it does matter. The Russell, which is the smaller caps, got absolutely annihilated last week. It was down to what, 12% in two days or something like that. Am I getting that about right?

I think that's about right. It was pretty bad. And so, you know, when you see this crap, you need to understand that it's, there is, I mean, 60% of people in the country, 60% of voters do have some stock exposure. They can't ignore it. And so they're going to figure out something. And we'll see what they're going to do. You're going to see all sorts of weird stories coming out, dribbling out over the next few days. You know, even I've seen people who you would never expect to say that there's going to need to be a blood sacrifice, whether it's Navarro or Lutnick or somebody else. I mean, I'm not making this.

This isn't coming from me. I mean, there are people who are generally well-informed. Well, Trump said, take your medicine. Trump literally said, sometimes markets need to take their medicine, not to quote it exactly, but clearly, you know, unfazed by the market moves at least publicly. But one thing that's absolutely true in all this conversation of macro is that there in a reset, there will be different winners

and different losers. And so you know, treating everything based upon statistical relationships that existed before a reset is exceedingly problematic. In other words, when there's a regime change, things change. So what will be the market leaders in this world? The market leaders in this world will probably not be multinationals that depend on incredibly complicated supply chains, because they're going to take a long time for their profits to come back because they're going to take a long time for their profits to come back because they're

getting slaughtered. Right? Dave, you know, I understand that. Yeah, you know, who's been a market leader in this market? Mike, you love this chart. Love it, because you've been saying that Michael Saylor tempted the market gods. Yeah. Who's the best performing billionaire out there? Warren Buffett's up 12.7 billion cash is humongous stack of cash or 45% in United States T bills. Listen,

man, you know, it reminds me of you, but people who have been here for a while can be quote unquote early and tell you what's coming but still have the conviction to be patient. to be patient? Well, I look at it as early, wrong, stopped out, ex-trader, I get it. Sorry, if some people didn't do the opposite, I say, but the key thing is that's going to go in my book. I mean, there's some things I remember from the past that are just striking. I remember being on my trading desk. It was 1999, and I was talking about zero-coupon bonds with a client, and a salesperson walked

by and said, are you an idiot? I mean, unsolicited. I was on the phone with bonds with a client and a salesperson walked by and said, are you an idiot? I mean, unsolicited, I was on the phone with a customer, are you an idiot? Didn't you see what Internet Socks are doing? I was like, I'll never forget that. It's going in my book. I called my father's money manager,

Northern, I think it was, yeah, Northern Trust a year ago. And I'll title one of my chapters, Why. When I said, the guy's 88 years old, why do you have him 50% in stocks? And his quote was, why? And I'm like, stop out, get me out. And I remember I put them all in just T bonds, T bills, he's been happy clicking coupons. And that statement from Saylor, he got me really bullish in 2000. It was the opposite. It's never under separate markets from human nature. And the human nature we're

seeing here, now with even my colleague wrote about it it with your average retiree in Florida really getting hurt by the stock market, they should not care too much about the stock market unless they're doing the classic human nature thing as well. My wife's best friend's husband's killing the stock market. I want to kill it. This is happening. It's happening in Japan in the late 80s. It happened in the US in 1929 and 1999. It's happening now. Act accordingly and get out of things like Dogecoin. I mean, Mike, that begs the question. If you're sitting in specular, if you're sitting in tech stocks right now

and you've already seen, you know, 20, 30% drawdown or 10, 15% in the last few days, is it too late now to sell or is this? SMB 500 total return on a two-year basis is 22%. Here's my violin. I'm sorry, but you look to just liquidate and that's what's going to happen. People will not play that narrative. I've always heard long time. So I quoted this morning, what does hold them mean? It means the thing I learned in 1999, everybody's in for a long haul as long as it's going up. That's being

switched. So what's going to happen and Dave will point it out. He's just pointed out with margin calls, people are going to unfortunately sell at the lows. That's just the. So what's going to happen, and David pointed out, as you just pointed out with margin calls, people are gonna unfortunately sell at the lows. That's just the way it always works. Those people who are playing the game, and this is why you're supposed to look to sell rallies, maybe we'll be lucky enough to get them, but I'm pointing out the fact is we're probably gonna, maybe it's gonna happen this year, maybe it's 10 years,

maybe within by the time we get to midterms. We're going back to one-to-one stock market cap to GDP. Remember, Bassant even said it, we're switching away from Wall Street back to one-to-one stock market cap to GDP member bass and even said it we're switching away from Wall Street back to Main Street So my suggestion is for people if you look around look to buy some land in the Midwest, which I used to own I just don't anymore. I miss that it's just this is what's happening right now What's gonna take to switch that typically it takes a major paradigm a major reset?

Which means markets going down for them. Just flip on a dime No, but it means the feds can ease. Yes. Okay, we're gonna have problems with the fiscal But we remember we have some of this the most significant business sharks on the planet running his government So yeah, it's gonna be hurting in the long term but give it That's a key thing. I think Lotnick got wrong. He pointed out fourth quarter is gonna be the Trump quarter and the first quarter was Biden quarter. He's missing by years.

These things take years. I just wanna point out this truth social point post from Donald Trump because it outlines exactly what you just said and what you said at the very beginning. This is going to be the narrative. Oil price is down, interest rates are down, slow moving Fed should cut rates, of course, take you a shot where it can. Food prices are down, I don't think that's moving Fed should cut rates, of course, take you a shot where you can.

Food prices are down. I don't think that's true. There's no except for eggs, which are because of bird flu, but there's no inflation. And the long time abused USA is bringing in billions of dollars a week from the abusing countries on tariffs that are already in place. We can dive into that. I mean, I'm still like pretty confused as to how tariffs are a good idea in this in this situation.

I mean, these are American companies that are paying the tariffs to United States customs short term. And we and the idea I actually want to talk about this idea. Are we being abused by foreign countries? Yes. Or is exporting dollars and inflation abusing them? Because the average person in Vietnam, like who's sitting in a factory making Nikes for a dollar an hour,

certainly isn't like consuming American goods. We are the consumers, we buy the dumb shit endlessly, and we do it with money that we print effectively for free that we export to them and force them to use as a global reserve currency. I mean, it's the Tiffin Dilemma, whatever you wanna call it, but our export that makes it even in my mind, in the mind of many is our inflating dollars that we force them to use.

I'm sure Dave and James have comments. And let's point out the facts. When you're a net exporter, that's a drag on GDP. I'm sorry, when you're net importer, it's a drag on GDP. When you a net exporter, that pushes up, it helps your GDP. Lessons of Alcon than are Hamilton. We need to export. We did. So I just want to point out the facts. The top three export predators on the country, Germany, China, and Japan, I was just doing notes on this morning, they're on average, their total GDP of exports of GDP is about 24%. Now, Germany is a leader, and in total is $6.6 trillion. The US exports, 10%, that's $3 trillion. Their net exports are 2.2 times. This is an economic war.

The word, a book I'm reading right now is called Choke Points. Fishman, I think is his name. And the world's gone economic, completely economic war. And we have the best team possible to do it. Now, yes, they're gonna piss people off unfortunately But that's always happens when you have paradigm shift. That's the key thing

I want to point out is this is just a reordering of the post-world war two order when yes We won we provided security and yes, if you want to get back you export to us now Dependents abuse that it's being shut off and that's the basis of the book. No price the, No Trade is Free, by Robert Lighthizer, which is happening exactly the way he expected. One other thing I'll mention is the book by General McMaster, No Trade is Free. Trump's going to have nothing but loyalists. So there's an article on Friday about how Bassett might be the first to leave. These guys are loyalists.

They've been thinking these things for decades. Good luck with this one. They're going to write it out. Well maybe, maybe they'll write it out. Or maybe, you know, we have 10 days, right, or not, not anymore, to enact these things. And that's not enough time to negotiate. If you have 50 to 100 countries that come to the table, I think Ackman was talking about this this weekend, and I think he's right. You can't just not give him a chance to negotiate,

you're going to give him a chance. So maybe you hit the pause button, right. And so you say, well, we'll, we'll, okay, 10 days, we're gonna, we're gonna postpone that because we've had 200 countries come. We've had 50 or 100 countries come to the table and they wanna negotiate and we're gonna give them the chance to do that. And that would be a businessman's approach which these people are businessmen.

And that does make sense to me. Right, and maybe they're just saying these are permanent because that is the negotiating technique to look crazy enough to do it and to maintain it and to call it the long-term, but they're saying it's not a negotiable. Half of them are saying it's not a negotiable. That's part of the negotiation tactic.

I mean, again, I love when people said how sharp the Russian negotiators were. I'm like, have you dealt with New York real estate people like Trump or Musk? Why is he from South Africa and America? Because he's the greatest country in the world. He came here for a reason. And I just, you know, I just look back at this,

trying to look back at this from two years from now, or midterms, and I think you can see where it's going. Like you said, we're gonna have major deflation cutoff. And he's gonna point out the list of all these investments in the US. Yes, sorry, the stock market's down 50%, but we'll check out the next two years, it's gonna go right up. That's probably what he's going to point out the list of all these investments in the US. Yes, sorry, the stock market is down 50%, but we'll check out the next two years, it's going to go right up.

That's probably what he's going to say. Mike, in the context of these tariffs, though, you've been long sort of pointing to deflationary trends. We talk about the price of tomorrow with Jeff Booth. We talk about this being an incoming Great Depression. Do tariffs change that in your mind at all? Because obviously, many point to the fact, most point to the fact that tariffs are likely to be inflationary. Yeah, 10% of the economy versus, let's see, stock market cap to GDP is down, what, $12 trillion before. That's how many times X is that's 40% of

GDP? I just pointed out the number one deflationary force is the number one lesson, the lessons of inflation. It always comes in the back of deflation. You have to get prices up high, and then deflation is when they go back down. We have just started going down. Just look at housing, it's just gonna get started. You remember 2000, I shouldn't say eight, it's six. They peaked in 2006, it's all getting started that way. Trump's gonna be able to say,

hey, you know that house that you couldn't buy last year, couldn't afford because mortgage rates were 7%, well guess what, they're 4% now, and now you can afford it. And by the way, flip side of that. Sorry, you're right. I didn't mean to interrupt you can finish. No, you're right. I mean, and here's one thing that the flip side of tariffs send up lumber and then people are going

to be saying, Wow, it's so expensive to build a house. It will be down by the way, it and I don't want to use it will be but it's just the key thing. Remember, I'm the guy from the Rust bill. I've seen it happen. And here's the point. Here's the key thing about this. This is part of the great natural self-correcting mechanism of this country is no other country can do this to this certain scale.

Certainly not Mr. Z in China. It's not China, Mr. Z. If it doesn't work in four years from now, we're never going to do again. If it does work, Trump might end up on Mount Rushmore. It'll still change the world. That's why you got to get through the period.

This is a major shift, and it's a great opportunity for traders. But buy and hold risk assets? Probably not. Which means you need to distinguish between what's a risk asset and what isn't, and what's the winning technologies and what isn't. And that is what matters.

And when you start looking at various things, whether it depends, right? Inflation, you talk about inflation as if there's no such thing as a printing press, as if we aren't inflating the amount of dollars in circulation. And I hate to go, look, Keynesians have had their day in the sun.

I think that we kind of know that the reason that we've had 30 plus years of asset inflation that has helped moderate consumer inflation because it's a substitute capital for labor. It is not an accident that you saw over the last week, people saying, well, it really isn't about labor because we're going to have robots in the factories. And it's not fully robotic. I mean, come on. It's both. But this substitution effect is not going anywhere. That's one thing they can't afford to change. They want asset inflation. They want people to say that we're going to continue to run these deficits and

you're going to continue to have, you know, we're going to be able to finance long bonds. And yes, your reason, if you think, if you're right let's just say you're right and They're gonna be able to equalize the US and the rest of the world They're gonna eliminate it US part you as long rates have to be the same, you know as German long rates Well Germany's debt to GDP is one fourth ours Right, well how about Japan in China?

Right. Well, how about Japan and China? Well, I understand. So let's point out the three major net exporters on the planet have very low interest rates. Why is that? Well, I'll give you the answer. China because it's manipulated and there that it means because it's because the government wants it. Japan has been manipulated for relentless yield curve control. Right.

Japan has manipulated and it's manipulated because they have a captive population that they've imposed effective capital controls on because they're only allowed to do certain things. Their postal system and their savings rate is off the frickin' charts from their old population that it's just living that basically has it all locked in. Inflation in Japan is a very big deal

and that's why they care about it so much because as long as they can control consumer inflation their aging population which is very bad and if you Listen Elon Musk talk about what's the real existential risk its population decline because that's what Japan is going through And so those savings are what they're living off of and if their life expectancy keeps going up They are utterly screwed right, you know, and how did they get wealthy? But that's why they're, how did they get, everyone of them got wealthy by exporting to the US. That's been shut off. They all, they all, they, they, well, it has not been shut off. But what has happened is that the word

manipulation is what they're going, that's what's shut off. They're basically what these guys are saying, and I agree them I mean I support the policy of saying listen if you're manipulating your currency and You're you're you're giving your domestic producers not paying that when when our producers have to pay that that's a tariff And all of that should be equalized. I understand that but I think it has to be in strategic industries I also think that we need to let RFK fix our food supply because when Lutnik is talking to the Europeans and saying well You should take our cattle and our chickens and they're saying you shoot them full of hormones And we don't want them because they don't qualify under our food safety standards and you look at their rates of obesity versus ours We need to fix that shit first, which the good thing is he actually put someone in charge that will fix it

But once again as Scott Mentioned this takes time and so we time is what's going on here. I think the bottom line is, is that he doesn't have electoral time. And so what he needs to do is create the shock to the system now. And that's what you're seeing. But get it over with really, the only reason that people would be selling Bitcoin, forget the rest of crypto for a heartbeat, the only reason people will be selling Bitcoin is if they really think they actually think that we're going to stop printing money, we're going to get debt under control. If you think that then my old apartment in New York had a view of a

bridge, I'd love to sell you that as a bit as a Bitcoin or Dave, like people should, myself included, should support some form of ripping off the bandaid fixing things, you know, but so like, it feels like it feels like, as I said on Twitter before, it didn't feel like a bandaid rip. It felt like nuking the entire hospital instead. Let's talk about this. Okay, stop. You we keep talking about beta and everyone points to Sunday's Bitcoin raid, which I

think was a cleverly designed trade that someone made a fuck ton of money on. In the last 25 minutes, the Nasdaq has dropped two and a half percent, give or take. Am I getting that about right? I think that's about right, right? It's down since last, since Friday, but actually up on the day. Yeah. And we've got some great oversold signals.

The NASDAQ? Yes. The NASDAQ opened at 408, it's at 4012. No, no, it's talk of futures. NASDAQ futures open up then. Okay, so S&P 500 opened up down 4%, now it's down 2.8. NASDAQ opened up down around 5%, now it's down 2.6. Up since the open of trading, but down. Absolutely. The low low so that I mean this is a classic shortcoming kind of day. 60 VIX

we saw last night, big gap lower. Yeah but ignore the trade the nuances unless you're a trader. I mean I'm talking macro. Well you and I agree on that one completely. I think people ask me what do I want? What do I think? My strategy is simple buy Bitcoin Sleep well, don't use leverage What happened when Bitcoin to bitcoins when futures are launched sorry This is my background is now Bitcoin has massive leverage and especially with ETFs and we're finding out the truth of Bitcoin It's the best performing ass in history. It's gone up way too much and is going back down.

It has 13 million dependents. Gold has three. My point is when those dependents get purged, that's when it's time to buy Bitcoin. I think it's around $10,000. And now you know who to blame if it doesn't do that. The entire market cap of non-crypto, of non-stablecoin, non-crypto is rounding error in where Bitcoin goes as it achieves adoption. It's rounding error. That's a great prediction, I love it. Some of us made those kind of things eight years ago

and we were bullish when it was cheap. Now it's just expensive, that's not complicated. You know, Mike, the difference is, the difference is, let's, We're holding you to the board. The difference is, Mike, is that those other 13,000 cryptocurrencies are in the they're they're they're in the casino. People are they're they're trying they were they were trying to get rich off of them. That's all they were

trying to do. Nobody's trying to get rich off of Bitcoin. They don't think it's gonna grow a lot of traders. They are well, not not the people are not the real Bitcoiners. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Look, in short term-bottom, not in the short term. Not the real Bitcoiners, yeah. Yeah, look, in the short term, you're not getting rich off of Bitcoin in the short term, but you are holding value in the long term, and that's the point that I believe Dave is trying to make, and that's how we view it, or that's how I view it,

is that, look, if you really believe that we're gonna stop printing money then yeah and we're gonna have deflation you know well then that's probably not what you want to own but you can the the reality is I just I have zero I cannot get to a path there I have I have racked my brain on it Mike I can't get to a path where we don't continue to print money and expand the money supply because the entire system, not just the US, the entire system is built on debt. All of it. It's all built on borrowing.

There's paper. The Fed knows that. There's no real money out there anymore except gold, which has been bastardized, as you know, because of all of the leverage on it and all of the, you know, the fractional reserves. And you can't tell me that gold has not been held down with all of the paper that's on it. It has been. And just to look at even within crypto, James, I mean, Bitcoin, ether is now at point below point oh two. I mean, you know, the rest of crypto, the speculative part of crypto, which by the way, is as a total undervalued compared to where it's going to be. But as a individual, people don't know what's going to be the winners. And so you see that it's a very different trade, the Bitcoin trade Bitcoin, even with Sunday's catastrophe, is still dramatically outperforming stocks any metric since last Monday, since we last met.

Bitcoin is down $4,000, the stock market is down double or triple that in percentage of any how you look at it. Absolutely, Dave. You got that beef. It's been doing that. It's been showing that. That's significant. If it can keep doing that, that's wonderful.

For meantime though, most people bought it. And by the way Mike said on Thursday we did a show on Thursday and Mike said wow it's amazing that Bitcoin is showing divergence strength in the face of this. I just want to get to where we're not screaming at each other because I think that when you look at the hash rate stuff and you see what's going on and understand financial incentives there's one financial incentive we know that our administration has more than anything else. He is very loyal to his friends and his family and his family are into this shit hip deep. And they, it's not like they don't,

you could laugh if you want, but you know, there is a time for a trade here. If I were Ryan Cohen at GameStop, I would have deployed my $1.24 billion today. Oh my God. the they made the announcement. So that's a big discount. Right. So, and so, you know, when you look at GameStop, where, where is GameStop right now? GameStop is at 23 bucks. GameStop, when the whole thing, you know, it's like, it was down as low as, in the 20, you know, with a 20 handle. That's a pretty big move, right? You know, it's a, there's, and that's without any knowledge of what he's actually done. The point is, is I just want to extend. And as we're, and as we're talking, but as we're talking,

you know, everything is rallying, but Bitcoin is rallying up on today from yesterday, you know, it's again, it's not from Friday. Friday, it's still down significantly, but- Six percent. Right. Remember, it was up on Friday. It's showing right now pretty good significant divergence strength, which means from this, I'd expect a decent short covering bounce in all risk assets. Most know the stock market might have just bounce. It might end up up on the day or these bounce.

But it's a macro that matters. And I think if you're depending on Mr. Trump to make your Bitcoin go higher and your desires, I'm like saying good luck. What's happening, I think,'s creating. The divisor. It's the divisor. It's how the way Jim Tramer is the one who called a black Monday of 20, 25% down. So maybe we get black Tuesday.

Well, we knew that that was, that was great. But all kidding aside, the issue is most of the people, I'll keep pointing this out, Mike, most of the people who own Bitcoin that are the smart money, I'm gonna go up into this room and there it's filled with pretty much all the senior traders on Wall Street who will now start filtering in as the markets seem to be stabilizing. And most people who own it believe it's 90% undervalued at least. So that's the point.

So you can call it a risk asset, but that's what they think. So but here's the volatility, I get that. It's wonderful. I mean, like we anticipate often does not occur. I get that. Understood. But first of all, for our audience, we need to disagree. Else, if we all agree, we provide no value. So let's do it cordially and disagree. It's fun to do it. We have to disagree. But I just point out what's, you know, I think, remember, this is like, I was very bullish Bitcoin, but I just have a sell signal. I stick with that sell signal for now. I'd like to be wonderful if I'm stopped out and everybody makes some money on their Bitcoin. But the point is the narrative has shifted. The whole system is going down. I think all the smart people you're going to see get it. I bet most of them are probably underweight equities are looking to sell.

If they're not, they're not as smart. But the key thing I remember learning in 1999, everybody's in the long haul for long haul as long as it's going up and there's always a good narrative, always. I just pointed out again, and there was one crypto in 2009, now there's 13 million, they're all dependent on Bitcoin going up. There's massive excess supply and Bitcoin's great, I get it. But I'm pointing out, I'm just calling for normal mean reversion, I'm sticking with 10,000 for now and if I'm stopped out, you know what I'm saying?

Most of those are going to zero whether Bitcoin goes up or down, just for the record. That is a very important point though. Just like in the internet bubble, most of the assets numerically, north of 99% of you're going to go to using Mike's numbers, way north of 99%. Even when tech went way up. Will be worth zero. Most of the 14,000 internet companies that existed in the OTC and NASDAQ markets back then went to zero. But the net aggregate value of the sector went up by two orders of magnitude or an order plus of magnitude,

between one and two orders of magnitude over the next 15 to 20 years. There you go. In the next 15 to 20 years, I'm in with you. I'm with you. I'm with you there, Dave. That's a long time. I hope I'm alive. What you're buying. That's why I don't, you haven't heard me disagree

on the theory, I have it. I mean, I don't know where it goes. I have. And I know you have it. Look, I own some, but it's whatever it is. It's part of a basket and I reorganize the basket every once in a while. And look, it's something's it's something it is what it is, but

It's it really is a question of the macro side is we are signing up for a world Where we change we really want someone is trying to change the global supply chain on a dime and that doesn't work And so you're gonna end up seeing all sorts of stuff The stories are gonna go back and forth and forth and back. I mean, Japan comes in, they say they want to do this. There's a limit to what Japan can do. They're an export led economy. And the difference in Japan and Vietnam is there aren't any Japanese workers making a dollar an hour or a dollar a day. If you believe that Trump is not going to win concessions, then yeah, go ahead, sell the market, it's gonna be a disaster. Exactly, I think he will. But I think he's gonna win concessions

and we'll come out better from it. And that's the play. And the question is when and how much pain is there between now and then? And Mike, I hear you that there's significant pain between now and then, but I still think, and I'm somewhere between you and Dave, I think that there's significant pain between now and then, but I still think, and I'm somewhere between you and Dave, I think that there's levers they can pull in between

to get there. There's way to save face, you know, and still win. And that's what I think is what I wanna do. Since we're running over time, lightning round, what do you think is now? I'm good till 10, 15, I don't know about you guys. Okay, just. Between don't know about you guys. Between now and next Monday, where do you think the S and P is next Monday when we start our show?

And where do you think Bitcoin is between, you know, where we are next, next week? Let's do now and next year. Next Monday can just rip off. I understand that. That's why it's fun. I'm not saying I'm planning on being right. What I'm about to say, I'm going to be at like 55%. What's your view? My view is the S&P will be down another

5% but it'll be somewhat orderly from where we are now and Bitcoin will be back into the low 80s again, where we were sucked most of last week. That's what I think will happen. But I think it's going to be volatile to get there. David, if that happens, that can start to flip some of my views that it's less tilting towards being digital gold rather than leverage beta. Right now I'm quite convinced it's much more leverage stock market. I won't say beta, you don't like that term. But that would start tilting the view and I think that would start tilting the market's view. Right now, we're just seeing little

nitpicky stuff. To me, the macro is Bitcoin's down 16% in the year, gold's up 15%. I just expect that to continue in the macro. Yeah, it's your time period to drive you crazy. But okay, James, what do you think? I agree. I think that Bitcoin does recover into next week. I don't know what the market's going to do, but I think that, you know, look, has Bitcoin found a local bottom? Who knows? This thing is so volatile. It's hard to tell. It's hard to tell what everything that you say, Dave, is it makes sense. But the problem is it assumes that we're kind of at status quo here and we don't get any comments from the Fed and we don't get any comments from the Senate and we don't get any tweets from Trump. But we're gonna get all of those

between now and the time we get off this call. So, you know, that's the hard part. Yeah, but that's why it's a hard to pay the uncertainty and that's a terrible situation. Yeah, but that's why it's a terrible situation. And we know holding all things constant. What's that? Holding all things constant. I agree with you, but I don't,

who knows what's gonna happen. The volatility that comes out of commentary is incredible. Yeah. The 10 years are ripping right now, by the way, almost back to 4.1%. So, the 4.06%. The wrong direction? Oh, yeah.

Going right back up. Oh, it's risky. There's clear signs from last night's low. There's risk back on. I mean, you can just see the way that it's trading. The VIX at 60, you don't want to be short in the market. You hit stops, but that's what makes it go up to 60. And that's what James did last year when it was at 50. Bitcoin dropped to 50 and evicts was at 65. You bought the market, but we're seeing. I can tell you anecdotally that my, you know, I think that rarely I get pissed off or really euphoric in markets. And I was feeling pretty pissed off this weekend. And there was actually a moment when I woke up really early this morning yesterday, I was like, I'm gonna sell a bunch

of stock today. And instead, I counter traded myself and bought Bitcoin around 76 instead of selling off my a bunch of coin base at 143 after the market opened while we were doing this. Maybe I'll be wrong. But I know I know when I'm getting too, too depressed or too euphoric and generally counter trade myself. So that's what I do. Well, we we we we we had we had bids down and we had stink bids out there and then in the mid 70s. And so yeah, and I think it's by the way, worth noting overnight and we

got hit. We got filled good. So you filled I mean, it's worth noting that Bitcoin basically just after all that time came back to retest that March 2024 high, Mr. Depending on the exchange, but I mean, no way everybody can be right. That was the most gratuitous level that everybody was watching. Usually that means you either bounce to 77 or you nuke to 65. Right? If that is where we end up at a 75 low,

I'm gonna have to rethink everything about the crowd. But you're talking about a great trading environment, continue to trade, make some money, just don't get married to positions too long. To me, this is just a great environment for what I used to do for a living. I'm glad I don't do it anymore. It takes a special person to do it.

And I respect anybody on our call does it, and you, Scott, and Dave, James, and Dave, who actually do it, I just say it. But it you Scott and Dave James and Dave who actually do it I just say it but keeps me out of the fray Dave if I had to take that bet I would probably Default around where you are, I think but I think that we get a lot of volatility in stocks I mean Mike always points out and it's very true and I don't know what my camera decided to do again But we get these face-ripping rallies in bear markets in the downtrends. I mean, the biggest

moves up like today always kind of happen when things are bad. So it's gonna be really interesting to see, I think how that ends up playing out in the end. But gosh, I can't believe we have to go I could have done this for 10 hours. By the way, I think at one point, we had like 3400 probably our biggest macro Monday ever not surprisingly on a black Monday. Yeah, I wish we could just stay on the entire day and see how the market closes because I want to see if Kramer was ready.

Wait another minute. I want to take the temperature of the of the traditional financial community where I'm actually sitting. So it should be amusing. But we'll see. Yeah. The NASDAQ is only down one tenth at the moment. Yeah, I mean, if these candles close this way, like on the NASDAQ, I mean, this is what it's a long day but I mean, the epic bottom type candle on the SPF SPF the daily of something like that. Kramer is undefeated.

Didn't they close the inverse Kramer ETF man I'd love to get a part of that. Oh my god. Yeah, this is gonna I have a feeling we're gonna have big numbers and very entertaining shows all the way. Well, just close the gap. It just pumped even more. Look at that thing. Yeah. Okay. Well, we've got until next Monday to see if our bets are right. And we're gonna come back. It's gonna be like S&P down 47% Bitcoin 81,000. Awesome. James, Dave, Mike, another epic episode

of macro Monday. Thanks for staying a little late. Everybody else, I'll see you tomorrow and we'll see these gentlemen next Monday. Have a good one. Let's hope we're up from here. Have a good one. Bye. Let's go. Let's go.