The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Crash Alert: Could $70K Be the Next Painful Stop?

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

Is Bitcoin set to drop even further below $80K and test $70K? What's happening with the concept of the crypto capital, and why are Bitcoin and the broader crypto market crashing? I'm joined by Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, along with my friends from Arch Public, Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway, who will share an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio. Jeff Park: https://x.com/dgt10011 Andrew Parish: https://x.com/AP_Abacus  Tillman Holloway: https://x.com/texasol61  Unleash algorithmic trading with Arch Public: https://archpublic.com/  ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Are we having fun yet? Bitcoin crashed as low as $76,500 yesterday before getting a nice bounce. But obviously, nobody thinks that this is over because they're very panicky and always fearful and think we're going to $70,000 or lower. Is this all a result of expectations being too high for Trump and the crypto market? Is this because of tariffs? Is this because of Martin uncertain market uncertainty? Is it all macro? We have so much to unpack. The good news is that

we brought in Jeff Park from bitwise today to make us all feel really stupid. So I'm looking forward to feeling like a kindergartener who's confused by an advanced math professor in college alongside my friends Andrew and Tillman let's do it What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. We have a lot to talk about and most of it is price action and why none of us are having fun staying poor. We were promised a Trump stock market that would go up 40% a day, the Bitcoin would be $150,000

in the first 100 days or else would be a failed presidency. Instead, we're getting some sort of austerity from Doge, threats of tariffs, unthreats of tariffs, Doge, threats of tariffs, unthreats of tariffs, rethreats of tariffs, bigger tariffs, smaller tariffs, and generally insanity and market uncertainty is their plan behind it. Or is Trump just throwing things at the wall

to see what sticks? Tillman's not here yet, but we got Andrew and Jeff Park from Bitwise. Jeff, you were not in the background when I said that we were a bunch of kindergartners that we're going to basically listen to a college professor give us a lecture on the economy as you being the college professor, us being the kindergartners. I won't play the 40-year-old virgin clip again this time. But listen, let's just talk first

about this price action here, right? I mean, we take a quick look at coin market cap, we've got Bitcoin around 81,181. Interestingly, that's only you know, a 2% drop now on the on the on the daily chart, about point 5% on the hour, but it had a nice bounce after going down to 6.765. Then you take a look at Ethereum and Doge. I mean, these things are down 10% in the last 24 hours. We're seeing a serious cleansing of the crypto market alongside obviously one of the worst days we've seen

in legacy markets. I mean, the NASDAQ was down roughly 4% yesterday. That's not a joke. You're talking about $1.5 trillion in market cap erased there. What do you make of that? It's brutal. I'm sad to see it as all of you guys are

in the price section we've been hoping through this year. The thing that I feel is really different, this cycle versus the prior, is really ultimately comes down to the fact that we have a lot of institutional investor type capital in the way that the ETFs represent potentially that have entered the market. Right. And so I think about this a lot where a lot of the Bitcoin price action can sometimes be just determined by profit taking behavior. And the reality is these ETFs are still up a bunch since launch. It's up a lot. It's still up almost like close to 80, 90% since inception of its launch. So what that means is from a cost basis perspective, there's a lot of people who are healthily in the money, but it's going to hit that IRR CAGR type number

in which they're gonna have a benchmark for where they feel like they got enough juice out of it. So if you think Bitcoin CAGR should be 35%, maybe within two years timeframe around 70, that's the number in which people are going to reallocate out of Bitcoin to something else they're gonna feel like there's gonna be a better cost of capital for.

This is like a fundamental tension that all institutional investors ultimately have when they wanna have best ideas of their portfolios on an opportunistic basis. And when you have the equities market sell off like this, what really is happening underneath the hood is that investors are realizing the cost of capital in owning Bitcoin has gone up because

there's actually a lot of other things you might want to own at these levels of dislocation, which has nothing to do with what you think about Bitcoin at all. At this point, it's a question of, hey, I loved Tesla when it was up 100%. Now it's down 50%. Maybe I want Tesla instead of Bitcoin. And those trade-offs are going to be made. And so it's not surprising that equity weakness, of course, is correlated to crypto weakness from those perspectives. And in that sense, I do believe right now it is all macro. The only thing that really is driving Bitcoin day to day at some level is the price action in which volatility of non-crypto assets is actually detracting away from Bitcoin's volatility.

And frankly, it's a tension economy now that we're post the SBR episode. Yeah, I mean, Bloomberg agrees. I just wanted to show this. It's one of the articles that I had here. Traders search for havens as US stocks sell off rattles nerves. People are just looking for greener pastures, right? And maybe this is the time when people actually go full Mike McGlone, as we say on Mondays and start actually

buying bonds, right? Maybe they believe that Trump is going to force Powell's hand and continue to force rates down until we get cuts and things just collapse in that direction. And like, I think there's this tension between whether it's Trump's madness, him just saying what assuages his ego on any given day, 10%, 25%, no tariffs, basically just puppeteer with everybody on the strings, and that there could actually be a master plan here, which is that Powell said, I'm not cutting rates until the data says so, and Trump's going to give me the data. Yeah, yeah. No, that's totally right. I think we're all learning day by day and what Trump's ultimate coherent vision is in the

Terra 4 that he has launched. And I would say recently, the thing that has become a little bit more clear for me, and I'm curious what what you guys think is that it's actually not as coordinated as one could have thought a well strategically thought out plan might be like it truly does at times feel like it is. Let's see what sticks and create volatility for the sake of creating volatility. And the moment for me that became more clear was when Trump actually threatened Japan last week. Trump accused Japan of manipulating the dollar yen without I think maybe even truly explaining the phenomenon of why the dollar yen behaves the way it does in relative value versus U.S. risk assets and threatened that he would put tariffs on Japan if they manipulate their currency like China. And by the way, like China and Japan are very different in the ways that the FX markets exist. So you kind of have to imagine there's literally

no upside that comes from that behavior. Like we can talk about the upside of tariffs to Canada and Mexico and definitely China, but Japan is one of those things where like, it's almost hard to see like what you would extract out of that, given kind of the financial relationship. So to me, it became a little bit of a moment to recognizing, man, like he really actually doesn't maybe have a totally cohesive plan. He may not even really have like an end game

of the protectionist world that people are imagining that could unearth in global alliances. And really, it's just quite simple. He just wants to create as much volatility as possible. And that's actually a very, that's the case, like bad market for Bitcoin for all the reasons we described, because there will be value elsewhere in those scenarios. Yeah, Andrew, I want you to jump in, but a lot of people have noted that it'd be one thing to be doing tariffs, it'd be another thing to be doing Doge.

To be doing Doge and tariffs is a lot for the market to absorb, right? Because Doge, people can call it what they want. I believe it's a form of austerity. By the way, I believe it's something that has to be done. Like I do think that we need to cut government waste and we need to have transparency. But you also have the understanding that you can't necessarily campaign and say in the first 100 days, everything is going to go up, it's going to be the best market ever

while also proposing something that has to send the market down. So I think it's just a lot of confusion and we know markets hate uncertainty. So this isn't even necessarily being critical of his policy. This is the time to rip the bandaid off if it's going to happen because it's the only time it can happen and not affect any elections. So if there's a master plan, this is when it has to be done.

Yeah, at minimum, you know, returning to 2019 levels as it pertains to both spending and then the size and scale of government and certain size and scale of employees at different levels of government. That's a reasonable way to look at adjustments to the growth of government, spending of government. Now, everybody on this panel today would agree that there's probably a better way to message that, a better way to go about doing it. That's a, that's a little more muted, a little more action and a little less bluster. But that's just not who Trump is, never has been, never will be. At the

same time, volatility is here, Volatility is here probably to stay. So the best investors are unemotional about adjustments and changes and then how the markets react. They stay completely on top of and as in front of as they possibly can that volatility and do not care about the whys, the hows or the whats. They're adjusting to make money

based on the adjustment to the markets and the adjustments to the landscape. They don't see Trump as something to have an opinion about. They see Trump as something that has come into the markets, made an adjustment, a wave has hit, and what are the ripples of that wave? Where do those ripples go, and how do they benefit? So, Jeff put out a tweet yesterday associated with adjusting processes and timeframes and thoughts, and then action associated with where we're at with volatility, and specific to Bitcoin, and specific to, again, risk assets,

how do you act as an unemotional investor focused on returns to benefit from where we are right now? And, you know, to me, the money line had to do with, you know, Bitcoin ETF options and where we're headed with those options associated with a commodity that has a cap supply that's never existed before, that dynamic has never existed before. And so what does that opportunity mean for potential investors who are doing their best to be unemotional and to benefit from where

we're at. To me, that's the nature of the best investors is being unemotional, seeing the field for what it is and then making plays on that field as it lies. Right? A lot of people are pointing, I agree with that. I just want to say, sorry, Jeff, a lot of people are pointing obviously to the national debt as a reason that he might be doing all this to force rates down. I think he wants to force rates down just because it'll make assets go up and rich people get richer. That's the benchmark of a great presidency in his mind. But obviously, there's also $7 trillion of debt that's maturing in the next year

that everybody's been talking about. But I think I'm looking at the average rate, I think of financing on that debt right now, about 2% to 2.5% weighted. Obviously taking $7 trillion of national debt and taking the interest rate from 2.5 to 4.2, not great for our debt spiral. So that would be a serious master plan if that's what's behind it. Many pointing to it. I have my doubts, but I do think that's important

that rates are lower, whatever that is refinanced. Absolutely. Absolutely. I agree with this. And even then I would caveat an asterisk, which is there's one thing that even Trump cannot control, caveat and asterisk, which is there's one thing that even Trump cannot control, and that is Japanese rates. And what we're seeing in the past few weeks is Japan is having a very tough time placing their JGB bond auctions. Their 10 years did not succeed in placing out their optimal rates. The five years that they rolled the week after also did not settle at the prices that they would want for. This is a problem because if Japan cannot place their JGBs in rates that then are funneled into the US economy in the way that it allows cheap borrowing, then the actual ponzi of the global carry system itself unravels. And so this is actually something that nothing can be done even by Trump alone in creating US turmoil. And it's singularly the most important thing that macro investors are watching because of that exact nature of it all.

And I really do look at Bitcoin on the other side of this as the most optimistic trade that one can have. If you do believe the unwind of the global carry system represents a new monetary order in which people will rebound their expectations on a price specie mechanism, right? Going back to hard assets as supporting evaluation metric for floating FX rates, that Bitcoin will serve a central role for it. So the long-term picture of Bitcoin has never been stronger, actually. It's just that the path to get there is now becoming extremely volatile because people are waking up to this reckoning.

And I think the SBR is a little bit of this moment where you could have almost imagined a beautiful bridge, like to make that happen. But of course, it would have always been practically challenging in the way that Bitcoin always takes a long time for people to really wrap their head around and take that risk. And it's especially hard to take that risk if you're doing it at a public capacity. This is the other thing that I've mentioned. I've been pitching Bitcoin for years. And it's one thing to pitch to high net worth and family offices because they're selfish and they're motivated to make money off their own capital. So if they believe it, they'll buy it.

It's another thing to pitch to public officials where basically you are making them the decision maker in a very public and transparent way of an investment decision for which you may not have a lot of control for ultimately, right? The price of Bitcoin, but receive all the backlashes in the event that things don't go well. So this is what I call classically, you're short of put, like you're literally exposed to unlimited downside and making that choice, but you get very little upside participation because even if Bitcoin does go up, it's not like the public officials participate on a profit share, right? They're managing public programs. And so if you think about what the Strategic Reserve ultimately represents,

I mean, that's as a public vehicle as you could ever imagine from the executive order in which there's discretionary decisions made by individuals. And you have to really think about that incentive alignment. It's very hard to get those kinds of entities to buy Bitcoin. And it's especially hard to get them to buy Bitcoin when it's high or trending higher. And so it is one where I think people have a lot of expectations for what it might do in the future. I know people are focusing on the wording to say that there's actually more actions to follow.

But I do think that people should have adjustments, not just based on these warnings and legal docs, but really human psychology. At the end of the day, psychology will explain most behaviors of how institutional investors come into Bitcoin. And it's very challenging as a public. Well, and to Jeff's point, it's what I mentioned last week, Scott, trying to move a strategic Bitcoin reserve in a more controlled and via the architecture of the way the government actually works, congressional approval, trying to do that through those means speaks directly to Jeff's point. Like you have a two-seat Republican-controlled house. What is the upside, so to speak, to voting for a strategic Bitcoin

reserve that is actively buying Bitcoin and has been given the stamp of approval by Congress and in the Senate? And then two years from now, you're having elections. And where is Bitcoin at that point? Is it markedly higher? Is it markedly lower? That's a risk that a two-person Republican Senate is probably looking at and saying I don't know if I you know, how am I selling that on the trail? When I'm trying to get reelected in 18 months, you know what what's the downside risk and Looking at the chart of Bitcoin and knowing what it does in cycles and saying It's pretty good chance that this thing may be a little bit lower in 18 months than it is today.

Again, not understanding the processes and having all that stuff associated with Bitcoin price movement. You know, there's going to be folks that aren't going to sign on and rush to go do that type of legislation because there is downside risk. Now take that proverbial downside risk and move it to states, move it to you know education boards and you know all the things that are happening across the country. There is again from a legislative standpoint there's more risk involved than we as Bitcoiners see. And Jeff does a good job of explaining that. But when you've got a two person advantage, you know, in the in the house, makes it very, very difficult to push something through. And Cynthia

Loomis is seeing this right now. Very, very difficult. Yeah, she looks exasperated. Yeah, she talks about this at this point. She thought it was going to be a layup, and she's like, I don't even think they did. It never is. It never is. It never is, because it's not the rational choice. When you involve humans in the ways

that they have accountability in their decisions, it's not always seeking for the maximization of the right choice. There's a lot of other motives that come into play. Look, at the end of the day, I actually think that you can believe that Bitcoin is challenged in the short term, but as a result, the long-term opportunity is even more incredible. And I know sometimes this creates a little bit of mental incongruence, like, Jeff, how can you be like bearish on Bitcoin, but also bullish on Bitcoin?

Like that makes no sense. But literally, like if you think tariffs are ultimately creating all these volatilities in the ways in which that there is going to be further liquidity to come to market, which I think we all do believe that is the end game with what Trump wants to accomplish with 10 year rates and with JGBs and with China's liquidity issues right now, we are gonna go past all time highs.

Like it is almost a guaranteed outcome. And now what you have is actually this coil spring because price is lower. And that's why to me, the most amazing trade right now that I'm trying to enthuse to people is to take the chance of buying very long dated, very out of the money calls. Because these are the things that you don't have

to be super specific about in entry levels, right? Cause it's so out of the money calls because these are the things that you don't have to be super specific about in entry levels, right? Cause it's so out of the money anyway, that the Delta isn't moving so much on the basis of whether it's 77,000 or $81,000 today. But it's almost like your dollar cost averaging the perpetual strip of like a two year option because of the fact that you make a decision once.

And you can actually then not have to think about it and try to be cute about executing all the lowest bids in this crazy market. Most investors cannot do this. Most retail investors and even professional investors are not day traders. And so if you want to capture the convexity of what you think could be in a two-year timeframe of Bitcoin's ultimate destination, this is a gift. You have the chance to buy these things when Bitcoin's at 70k then 100k and you can get two times the leverage now that you could have gotten two months ago. So it's entirely possible to be bullish and also express that we can be a little skeptical in the near term that this might be the better positioning. I set bids in the 70s, I think in like November when we broke the set and high from earlier in the year, and place went flying, and just even

from a technical perspective, I was like, I wanna be there if this thing gets retested as support. Not that it has to, but I wanna be there, right? So I still have bids actually down like 74, and kind of that area from those previous, hopefully they don't fail at this point, to be quite honest. I would just rather go up from here. But to your point,

Mike McGlone yesterday once again said it was the first time he said this he said I think the top is in for Bitcoin and either James or or j was like, you mean for now he's like no, like the forever top basically or the like multi year generational top like crack.com bubble 17 years to come back. Interesting. What was this two sentence summary of that view? I missed it. So I'm curious.

I mean, he's long thought that we're in the midst of the great reset, right? And that this is just things tilting back and it's just about to get disgusting. And that Bitcoin is in his opinion, the tip of the risk spear and therefore, will lead everything down and continue to. And he was making the, I love Mike,

he was making the argument that last week, we were all talking about SBR and bullish and things can only go up. And that was like the biggest sell signal ever. And I said to him, well, hearing that we're never gonna get a higher Bitcoin price to me is the biggest like bottom signal ever. And I said to him, well, hearing that we're never going to get a higher Bitcoin price to me is the biggest like bottom signal ever. Yeah, it's, it's, I mean not that crazy a view from traditional financial minds. You know, triad five minds look at Bitcoin and look at the cycles of Bitcoin.

And they simply do not see what we see as folks that are believers in the asset and the way that the asset acts and reacts and makes its moves. For example, just in a micro way, does anybody, I was surprised to wake up and us be at 81. Why? What happened? Nothing happened.

There's absolutely no, was there news at 3 a.m. that I wasn't aware of that pushed Bitcoin from 76, 77 to 81? No. So therein is kind of- But that went to bad futures for stocks were terrible. I don't know. Yeah. I haven't looked today, but it was, yeah. That's kind of the point is that, you know, Mike has to ignore some really significant macro stuff associated with Bitcoin. Mike is basically taking the other side of Larry Fink.

I mean, I don't know if he's comfortable doing that, but Larry thinks we're going to five to 700K. He's generally, again, and every time I say that out loud on a show or just to myself, I'm kind of taking it back. Larry does not make price predictions, man. Is Mike an equities investor or macro investor? Mike is the head of commodities at Bloomberg. Oh, interesting. Got it.

And I mean, to ran money for decades and was on the trading floor, as everybody in the audience knows the story. But he's been like, you know, he's been long bears. I mean, I had this argument with someone yesterday, similar but different on X, who was, I was basically arguing for dollar cost averaging prices are going much higher. And they were saying, look at the chart and try to predict and we're crashing and you'll buy it 50, all those same things. And my point was like, as an investor, I think Bitcoin goes much higher. And he said, you know, hey, well, why is Warren Buffett in so much cash then?

When I said that the point I made, sorry to be less eloquent, I said the richest people in the world have never looked at a chart, have never even heard of technical analysis. They've just bought stuff over time and let it go up. Right? Like it's not that complicated and that works better for Bitcoin than anything else. And he basically made the argument that we should all be using technical analysis to trade. And look, Buffett's in cash, isn't he a genius? And I said, Buffett is a genius, but he also missed the entire dot com run and has been going to cash

while the stock market has made a historic run here and missed this entire thing. If stocks dropped 30% more, Buffett might be right. If I could raise all that cash. It's just like, I don't see the arguments. Everybody's so concerned with the short term and you just buy this thing. Just buy it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And you know what? Like rich people love Bitcoin, not because they're depending on the value of Bitcoin itself as a way to sustain their lifestyle, but because the volatility of Bitcoin is so high that even

harvesting some of that yield is so lucrative as a base asset that it could fund your own lifestyle. It's basically like a dividend. Look at how abysmal rates generally are and dividends are even with value stocks. And literally with Bitcoin, you can actually own a chunk, never sell it, and do some clever financial engineering around it by engaging in call selling or cash cover puts and generate double digit yield. That will literally fund your retirement lifestyle. And so these folks are not even worried

about the price of Bitcoin in a way that they're saying they need to sell it. Like, no, you hold it because the yield on these things itself is so cashflow positive. And once people realize this, which is that volatility is the reason why Bitcoin generates these yields, and is maybe one of the most orthogonal source of yields away from everything else we know in global macro, there's value there. I'd have to imagine someone like Mike can see through that. I would take that a step further, Jeff and Andrew. I know you love to talk about this, but for those who don't understand how to utilize the option market to make yields. What's coming, and already exists if you use a company like Abra that Bill Barheit runs or something, is you can just take your Bitcoin

and take a 30% loan, you know, LTV, very safe. You need Bitcoin to drop 67%, 60, 70% just to even start getting liquidated. And as long as that variable rate is floating between seven, 10, 11%, which it does, if Bitcoin over a long period of time performs better than 7 to 10% a year, which it has since inception, that's a loan you literally live off of. If you had a $10 million in Bitcoin and you're rich and you take a $3 million loan, you literally

never pay back ever. If Bitcoin goes up, you'd never pay a penny of that loan back in your life, and it only becomes less risky as the price goes up, and you could draw more if you don't believe you'll get an 80% retrace from wherever you've drawn, I mean, and that's simpler. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is how Zuckerberg got a 0% mortgage rate, pledging his Facebook shares as part of his pool that, well, with First Republic,

I suppose, at the time that people were like, how is this possible? And it's because asset rich things can also generate yield in different ways. One thing I should also mention, Scott and Andrew, while we're here together is today's actually the inaugural day of launch of our Bitcoin Standard Corporation's ETF. And you'll see the news having come out 30 minutes ago. You guys are the first person I get a chance to share this exciting update, which is that, look,

markets can be crazy. And today it's obviously nuts. But one of the beautiful things is there's a lot of dislocation as a result in the equities market, including names like Tesla, which happen to own a bunch of Bitcoin on their balance sheet, as you know. And what we're trying to accomplish here with the Bitcoin Standard Corporation ETF is really enthuse that all the companies that are innovative today, mission aligned about the future, understand the value of Bitcoin. And if you're able to invest in an indexed rule of companies who own Bitcoin

on their balance sheet to the methodology that we've described, where they have to have at least 1000 Bitcoins on their balance sheet, I think this is actually one of the more interesting and clever ways to diversify your Bitcoin risk, while having that as a core lever to think about driving returns, where there's going to be additional second-order effects of innovative companies in general that are going to drive returns in different ways. That's not about just the Bitcoin price action alone. I'm super pumped and the Bitwise team is super pumped to see how this index is going to develop over time.

Already, I think we're accessing names in global companies that US investors would have a very hard time being able to participate. That in itself, I think is extremely valuable. I mean, I have a bigger theory for why markets might crash. I don't know if you guys agree, but this is it. Your camera said that the market sell off shouldn't scare investors. Look at him. shouldn't scare investors. Look at him. Just, you know, God love him.

But, but seriously, we are seeing a bounce today. I think, I mean, I really like Bitcoin here, to be honest, like, and I, but I was saying that in the low eighties, but all of my kind of signals are, are screaming, to be honest, even technical, there's like, you know, RSI is massively oversold across the board. Tesla, I think is the most oversold by the way it's ever been. There's, you know, bullish divergences, which I love. We've got fear and greed at max pain. You know, like we start talking about, I saw, I saw recessions and depressions usually at the bottom and we're not going to get a recession. I saw a clip this morning.

Somebody clipped it from several years ago when Bitcoin was at 8,000 and Mark Yusko was on CNBC. And they're like, what are you talking about? Bitcoin goes to 5,000. Are you going to be buying more? And he's like, absolutely, yes. And the point that he made that I found most compelling is every year Bitcoin makes a lower high. Every single year since its existence,

Bitcoin makes a lower high. And that's kind of the point here in terms of Bitcoin price action. We can get all up in its business on a- Higher, lower, lower, high. I just wanna be clear, because- Yeah. Huh?

You said a lower high. You mean a lower high. You mean a higher low? Uh, maybe it's. I don't know. Lower high, higher low. But the point being is his is the point he was making is that, you know, every year a Bitcoin is, is again, making a, okay, higher low, lower high, higher low,

whatever you want to, however you want to say it. Um, yeah. making a, okay, higher low, lower high, higher low, whatever you want to, however you want to say it. Yeah. Is that his point being is that there's all different ways to have a reason to buy Bitcoin and to continue to buy Bitcoin. And whether it's technical, whether it's macro, whether it's Larry Fink says so, there's an immeasurable amount of reasons to do it.

Again, Bitwise is new product. The corporations putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet is not just a trend, it's a mega trend and it's going to continue. So they're gonna have lots of choices to make of companies to put in that index. That index is gonna grow and grow and grow and grow and grow. Yeah, so if you're a retail investor,

should I get in? What's the level that I should get in? Just get in, just get in and continue to get in. Because over the course of time, over the last decade, every single dip for Bitcoin, no matter the size of it, has been for buying. Every single one. Every single one. Down 80%, 50%, 40%, 30%. Every single one has been for buying,

and we've gone higher since then after every dip. Every single one. Yeah. 100% agree. If Bitcoin is never making another high, I'm just like, I'm just throwing me out the window. That's what I'm going to go to. Yeah. Get severed and just send my ending to work at that point. Oh my God. That show.

You know, like I watched that show. I watched Severance this last episode. They almost lost me. I was like, what are we doing here? I can't, but that's probably not the discussion we're having. It's funny. I was like, what are we doing here? I can't. But that's, that's probably not the discussion we're having. It's funny, I'm looking at my Twitter thread, I would let you go in like two seconds, Jeff. But and like, you know, we tweet like all the kind of big economic news. It's so

bad. Yeah, yeah. It's hilarious. Like, like this market slide yesterday, the billionaires who attended Trump's swing in I don't know if you saw the picture. It's like, you know, Zuckerberg and Bezos and Musk all in the picture, they've lost $209 billion combined. And that's just those guys. Right? Delta CEO, corporate consumer said that it's falling. I don't know if you guys saw but they think they adjusted guidance like 50% down. Yeah, Delta, like airline Solana revenue

pledges 90% from January highs. I mean, even my own feed is making me want wanna buy stuff because it's so bearish. Yeah. Very bearish, yeah, very bearish. Well, I guess we'll have to see how it all resolves. Jeff, congratulations on the launch today. That's absolutely awesome.

I actually was, oh wait, dude, can I ask you one more question? Sorry. Yeah. I have to ask Jeff another question because you're the king of strategy, micro strategy that is. Strategy comes off the sidelines with 21 million preferred stock ATM offerings.

So, Sailor didn't buy anything last week. It freaked people out. Obviously, we know the Forbes jinx strategy shares out 30% since he was on the Forbes cover. But what do you make of this new offering? I mean, with micro strategy, I think 60% ish off the highs, mid 50s, 55%, something like that. I mean, is there going to be an appetite for all this right now?

Great question. Of course, this is just a shelf in the ways that you don't have to fill this capacity and they'll manage it as they go. You know, look, I stand by my initial thesis on what drives MicroStategies valuation. I have not budged, which is there's three things that matter. One is the actual absolute volatility level of micro-strategy matters. Two, interest rates matter to the extent

that the arbitrage becomes more possible when rates are low. And the third thing is that the finance team really needs to understand how to dynamically manage the capital structure. And I do think that STRK is the best security of the capital structure today, hands down. And so there's implications when that's the case, what it means to be in a capital structure, right? So I'm very curious how ultimately the team's gonna use this PREF issuance to drive the interest for the common shareholders, something I'll be watching very closely,

but I still continue to think that STRK is the most compelling security in the micro strategy capital structure. Perfect, thank you for that summary. It's gonna be interesting if prices do continue to go down to see what happens with MicroStrategy. Not that I have any concerns. I just think, you know, that what's their cost basis now?

62,000? We start sniffing that, we're gonna see some crazy news stories. Another side story I saw, by the way, is that apparently the Ethereum foundation just like got leveraged long Ethereum at a massive rate I can't confirm if it's true or not, but they're usually the ones selling the top not leverage long in the bottom So that's really interesting story as well, but I do need to let Jeff go Andrew

I'm gonna continue the conversation for a couple minutes Thank you, man. Thank you for having me Jeff a follow. See you hopefully every week man. Love having you on here next time Yeah, thank you See you hopefully every week man. Love having you. See you next time. Yeah here. Thank you All right, Andrew. Thanks to Jeff obviously for being here want to talk about Buying the dip and doing it manually. Yes You know what it what have we been talking about the whole time the whole time we've been talking about Bitcoin price, when do you buy it? Well, I think you know I was you know I was pounding

the table in the low 80s and we went to low 70s, we could go to 74. Those are all things that you've said on this call today. And it's literally the perfect conversation for the Bitcoin algorithm arbitrage strategy. It makes decisions for you in real time while you're sleeping. Like look at that execution at 81, right? Look at that execution down at 77, 78. So you're making decisions. The algorithm is set up to make decisions for you if you want to be long Bitcoin and removing all the emotions, right? You know, every time I've come on to talk about our Bitcoin algorithm and as well as our Ethereum and Solana algorithms that you all get for free when you sign up with us, I get really excited. The reason why I get excited is because

you can't find it anywhere else. At the same time, the emotional quotient associated with Bitcoin and owning it, not owning it, and then when should you own it? When should you double down? When should you buy more? When should you sell a little bit? These conversations are ubiquitous across Bitcoin and crypto Twitter forever. Forever. It's, it's the dominant conversation.

And when you have a tool, an institutional level tool that does that for you with the click of a button, you don't have to sit in front of your computer, you don't even have to look at your phone when you're in the movies with your family. This all just happens for you in ways that you can't do by yourself, right? You simply can't do it.

And it's an extraordinary product. It's an, it's extraordinary technology that's been siloed with institutions for years and years and years. And it's now literally at your fingertips. And so the ability to buy it, 77. The ability to sell a little bit at 81K is exactly what Jeff was talking about. Rich people, they like to create yield, right? A lot of different ways to create yield. This is a way to create yield by buying 2x the amount of Bitcoin that you sell every time there's a trade that happens. So you're accumulating Bitcoin in the long term, but just like early this morning, you're selling a tiny little amount. You're selling $260 worth in our stock parameter settings. So you made 260 bucks on Bitcoin today.

You also made it about four days ago at 94. And you're in your mid-20s. Yeah, so you're making yield on your Bitcoin on a weekly basis and benefiting in a big way from this volatility. When volatility hits, our ARB strategy is a godsend. It's an absolute godsend. You're making decisions with an algorithm

and you're not having to think about it. There's no thought, it's all happening for you. Yeah. And again, it just so happens to be free, right? It's a very good price free. What was it doing on Solana and ETH by the way? Essentially doing the same thing. You know, the parameters are when we're up, when we're down two and a half percent, it's

buying when it goes up 2.1% or more, it sells a little bit. So the parameters are exactly the same. It's just following that volatility. You know, it's following that volatility and taking it where it goes So if you're down two and a half percent again There's a buy that happens if you go down another two and a half percent another buy that happens, right? So it's stacking for you in whatever move is happening at the time. It goes up 2.1 percent again You sell a tiny amount comparative to the amount that that you're buying so

Archpublic.com people should go get involved with the product. It's free the first 10,000 transactions every year are free So if you're only using this for ten thousand dollars of transactions every year You're gonna be able to use this year after year after year after year for free absolutely free year after year after year after year for free. Absolutely free. So go do it, engage with it and allow a tool to do the things that institutional level folks do. The algorithm is going to be better than even they are. It's going to be better than even they are.

How long have we been doing this now? I mean, not even just this, but Archibald, how long have we been doing this now? Eleven months. Eleven months. Eleven months. Yeah, we've been doing this for 11 months. Yeah. Yeah. I've never heard really any complaints. No, no. It's a, we, again, I can't stress this enough that when you take something like this and you put it in the hands of retail, it takes some time for them to

get their minds around it. But when they see that they can do an algorithm inside an algorithm inside an algorithm inside an algorithm and now they're doing things with Bitcoin that they couldn't do even if they're sitting there at their computer it's an aha moment for most people that's like wow I can't believe I have this in my hand I can't believe I'm able to use this. All right, I can really execute without being just scared out of my mind that something bad is going to happen. Yeah, it's a it's a it's it's pretty awesome stuff. Really is it really is. It really is. Well, Tileman ghosted us today. Here, guys, you can

check it out. But they, you know, Tileman is behind this website somewhere. So archpublic.com. It goes, Jeff's amazing. I have to run. So today is going to find this website somewhere. So archpublic.com. It goes, Jeff's amazing. I have to run. So today is going to be really interesting. It's funny because, so, you know, with Crypto Town Hall, it's become basically just me, even though Mario and Ryan get to like have their faces on it and stuff. So I was like, who can, who would be really entertaining

to co-hosts because I can't do it today. Dave Weisberger is going to co-host. He's going to host Crypto Town Hall. Today is the first time we've had a non going to host. It's going to host. It's the first time we've had a non-me. It's gonna be amazing. I can't wait. But I can't do it today because I'm actually about to interview Richard Tang, the CEO of Binance at 10. That's the only time they could do it. Couldn't pass on that one. So that'll be an awesome interview that'll come out on Sunday. And I've got Sergey from Link tomorrow. Like

we're snatching them right now. Love it. Can't wait. Alright, guys, so check out ArchPublic. I gotta got Sergey from Link tomorrow. Like we're wow, snatching them right now man. Love it. Yeah, can't wait. Alright guys, so check out ArchPublic. I gotta run go get ready for this interview and I will see you tomorrow. Thank you Andrew. You bet. Later. Let's go.