The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Crash: Is The Worst Finally Over? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: July 9, 2024

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Bitcoin has arguably seen its first significant correction in this bull market, 27%, still par for the course, even low for previous bull markets, but starting to feel more significant, retracing from the highs at 74,000 all the way below 54,000 recently. But there are a lot of reasons to believe the bottom could be in. I'm sure that we will have quite a debate about that. Also, we've got Chairman Powell today and a list of things happening in macro worth discussing. It's not Macro Monday. It's Macro Tuesday today because I was traveling yesterday. And we have no James Lavish, but we can one-up that. We've got the amazing Noelle Atchison joining Mike, Dave, and myself. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Going to bring on my three, we'll call them co-hosts mike dave and noel i gotta say noel i'm nervous because last time you were on macro monday i wasn't here and i was told that you outposted me by a dramatic margin i just lose my job that's hilarious i can't think of a better compliment, but I don't believe it for a second. Thank you. It's what I heard even maybe from some of the people on the screen. Maybe. I'm just saying.

I've known Noel longer than you, Scott. That's fair. I have no problem being outposted by Noel. But we have a lot to talk about today, obviously. I think the first thing where we start is price. We're seeing a bit of a bounce here over the last few days we got bitcoin back to about 57 000 uh if over three it begs the question i think for many people if we think this is one of those kind of bear market bounces where we've actually topped and we're just uh seeing you know a nice reaction to oversold RSI and

all these things that we know? Or is this a, you know, is it yes, or doldrums and 27% read rate is going to tell us we're leading indicator for the markets drop. And then we get to get a fresh perspective from Noel. But Dave, do you think I personally think we might have just bottomed for a little while, just based on technical just to be clear. Absent something new. Yes. I mean, the most fascinating thing to me is either there are people who were trying to create a flush yesterday or whoever the German government is responsible for executing their trades are functional morons. And I don't know which it's possible either. Normally, I would say it's very weighted towards trying to create a flush, but it's kind of

hard to see that. Now, why do I say that? We were on Spaces yesterday and the tweet came came across the post came across as that dutch coins had moved to to so many so wallets etc and it wasn't that much but it was you know it was a substantial enough amount that it could have done something if you look at the market action within less than five minutes, the entire $2,000 downdraft happened. Now, it would more or less have taken, looking at the liquidity in the market, it would more or less have taken market selling or a really stupidly designed smart order router, which I would call it a dumb order router, or calling up every OTC desk on the planet and asking them to bid. And the ones who didn't bid could then be free to sell. Something that dumb.

The reason I'm on this rant, Scott, is because we used to see this all the time. When we founded CoinRoutes in 17, it was de rigueur. Even 18 and all of 19, we would see these massive candles because people didn't know how to buy or sell but on both sides we really don't see that much anymore except when there's a liquidity flush which generally requires there to have been uh significant leverage in the system well guess what we don't have significant leverage in the system. The funding rates have been close to neutral to low. So there's not a lot of longs to liquidate, relatively speaking. In fact, on the size of that flush, the amount of liquidations was less than half what it would normally have been for that sort of size.

So it makes me think there's a chance that whoever is advising the German government to trade are functional morons. And they didn't use a system like CoinRoutes provides our clients or Coinbase in their prime has bought a company called Tagomi that does this. There are a couple of others that do this. But if you don't trade like Michael Saylor does, I mean, you don't know Michael Saylor's trade until after he's traded for a reason, because they use intelligent, smart algorithms to conceal what they're doing. If you don't do that, yeah, you're going to have these things. And it was the funniest thing, because we saw this $2,000 flush, and almost within minutes, 50% of that had retraced and it ground higher. Now we're back to exactly where we were before that. So actually a little bit

above that, but it doesn't matter. I mean, it's like, why do people do this with Bitcoin? And so when Mike gets up on his soapbox and talks about Bitcoin's bait volatility, I mean, it's true. Bitcoin has more intraday volatility than a lot of other assets. It's partially because of the, you know, I could call, I'm calling them morons, maybe they're just ignorant, but whatever. But we're giving matches to children, basically. People who don't know how to trade are in the system with lots of money or lots of coin to trade, and it creates this volatility. Does that really matter from a macro point of view? In the long run, no, not at all. But if you look at bar models or other models that you program with this stuff, yeah, it's going to be an input to it.

So sorry for the soapbox and the rant, but Mike and I have every single week about whatever. And I just want to point out that something that I was watching live yesterday, knowing that the same sorts of trades being done by clients of CoinRoutes would have been done at a tenth to maybe a hundredth of the market impact that we saw yesterday. And so it's kind of interesting. And it's worth it. Breaking news headline from this is Dave just called the German government children and morons. No, I said whoever is advising them, telling them Bitcoin. I heard what I heard. I will stand on that. Whoever advised them or executed the trade. And we've seen that before, right? We've seen huge tranches sold inefficiently many, many times.

And we know that in an asset like Bitcoin, that's going to have a meaningful impact. But still, Noel, right? We talked about this range, $74,000 to $60,000. We were in it. It's definitively broken. The $200 MA on the daily's definitively broken. The 200 MA on the daily is definitively broken, right? And so there are signals that a lot of technical traders would look to to say trouble, right? Maybe not just the normal. Yeah. Absolutely. And, you know, I'm

definitely, as you know, Scott, I'm not a technical trader, but I do respect that they do sometimes have an influence on the mood. I have to apologize to all your viewers. I'm afraid I have to drop off at the half hour. I have a meeting I couldn't move at last minute. I have to apologize to all your viewers. I'm afraid I have to drop off at the half hour. I have a meeting. I couldn't move at that minute. But two things to say on that, Dave. I'm sure you all know that one person's bad trade is another trader's opportunity. This has always been the case in markets, especially one as nascent as Bitcoin market still is. It's all relative. I don't think the German sellers, the authorities, were advised in their selling at all, which is an example of the disdain in which they even hold this market. And many authorities around the world are probably in the same kind of view.

It's not even worth getting advice on trying to sell. Well, it's not even a real asset. Why should we treat it with that level of respect? Obviously, this is something that they're going to regret. Obviously, it's something that their political opponents are going to hold against them. We're already seeing some signs of that. It is a fascinating example of how markets can sometimes just reflect political opinion. But I totally agree with you. This is temporary. It's going to be out of the market fairly soon. I think the market's already

discounting that. And the dip is an opportunity, as we have seen. That floor was strong. I do think we may have some bad times ahead. I don't think this is the floor yet. I think it's a temporary floor. But I'm still, as I said many times before, even on this show, I'm concerned about the stock market crash. I think one's coming fairly soon. We have Powell's testimony today, which is probably going to start dropping from heavy hints about a rate cut coming in September, which everyone seems to assume would be very good news to markets. But if you look at the three previous instances in which the Fed was cutting rates, the stock market absolutely tanked. And that was without the level of concentration that we have today, which is at a 60-year high.

And that was without what I'm starting to see is waning confidence in the AI narrative. Goldman Sachs published actually a really interesting report a couple of weeks ago. I forget the title, but the tone of it was that what's priced in is actually unlikely to materialize. And this is from Goldman Sachs, very senior people, not even the junior analyst team was on this. It was very senior people. A lot of interviews from industry experts as well. I'm starting to see some skepticism. So if the stock market does turn, Bitcoin is going to get hit. But yet again, that will provide yet another floor for the longer term investors to pile in. Yeah, quickly. And Noel, I want to throw this out to you and to Mike, a couple of stats that I read about that historic sort of S&P run we've been on. Obviously,

it made another all time high yesterday, but it's been 343 trading days since the S&P fell 2% in a single session. Astounding. But less than a quarter of S&P 500 names have outperformed the index over the last three months, and the S&P 500 has hit 35 closing highs this year, including yesterday. But very clear that a few names are driving returns, and so it's become basically impossible for stock pickers unless you're in a few of those names. So we do have the S&P at these all-time highs. We're not seeing the retracements you would normally see. It's basically parabolic. But most stocks aren't doing

that well, relative. More new lows than new highs. I saw the other day. So there are more new lows reached on a daily basis than new highs. And that is just not sustainable. Mike, a lot here. I can really, I think, back up most of what Dave and Noel said. But to me, it's mostly focusing on what Noel said. And Bitcoin has broken down below its 200-day moving average. Sure, you can try to buy that again, but it's been indicating divergent weakness since its peak in March. It was a perfect storm for a new high, and the hangover should last for a while. So first, I want to piggyback on what my colleague said in yesterday's meeting. First of all, Chief Economist Ana Wong said she expects 4.5% unemployment by the end of the year, potentially 4.2% by the SEPA FOMC.

Gina Martin-Adams, our chief equity strategist, has been spot on. The bull marketer quote is the foundation is pretty weak. Expectations are high in vulnerability in tech. I haven't heard her that bearish in about three years, and she's been spot on. Ira Jersey thinks the 10-year deal is potentially going to end the year around 379. And then you tilt over to my outlook is look at Bitcoin right now. It's the same price right now as when it peaked in 2021 or just right around 2021. Over that time, gold's up 30 percent. S&P 500 is up 50 percent.

Nasdaq's up 60 percent and Nvidia is up 50 percent nasdaq's up 60 percent and nvidia is up 800 so who cares about bitcoin and i think that should last until it proves something that other than enduring hangover and other than being the leading indicator what i see is the beginning of a significant deflationary period on the back of and worthy of the inflation we had and it's all starting to trickle in there so we'll just look at s p 500 if it were to return to its 200-day moving average with bitcoin did it have to drop 12 it's normal nothing happens but imagine deflationary implications from that because yeah i look at here's a bloomberg commodity index it's one of the leading indicators for inflation on the year it's about about six percent the s p 500 is up 18 it's market is begrudgingly lifting commodities.

I think everything is just tilting that way. I look at crude oil. It looks like it potentially just put a peak in here. Natural gas is way too long. It looks like it's rolling over. Copper is way too long and over. Corn just hit a multi-decade low around $4. Way too oversupplied.

We're heading towards deflation. And I think Bitcoin is just a great leading indicator for that. You should heed it. It's just following Chinese bond yields. And I'll end with this one little story that I like to point out. I have to lead to China. I think it's significantly leading global deflation as it reverts and as emerging market, very similar to what Japan did a few years ago, 20, 30 years ago. And here's a headline from Bloomberg's story. China's super cheap batteries power a major shift. And to me, that's where everything is going. Bitcoin's just kind of guiding us. It's broke the 200-day moving average.

Expect the S&P 500 to actually do that. And questions when? Yeah, quickly, Noel, I want to ask you, because I have this chart I've shared a million times, it's exactly what you said, which is, okay, blue is a yield curve. So it's obviously historically inverted at this point. Red is Fed funds rate. So you can see that I've circled where they actually cut, right? We flattened out and they cut. Black is the stock market, which has literally left my chart. I can't even index it now to have the stock market still on the chart. But every single time, or at least certainly the last three, but every time I can look back, you get the Fed pivot. You get the first, you get the un-inversion or normalization of the yield curve, which we've not gotten yet. Then you get a Fed pivot in red, and then you get a major stock market correction. I still don't understand why people are cheering for a rate cut if we know that it means something

is broken or that is about to break. I just, I still don't get it. Recency bias makes us focus on liquidity. Liquidity is what drove the last bull run. So we assume it's going to continue to drive the next bull run. We tend to overlook the fact that liquidity is about one factor in investors thinking. And when investors get scared, liquidity is actually not what they're focusing on. Maybe smart investors are. Hopefully smart investors are. But the rest of us are going to be thinking, holy shit, things are bad. Holy shit, this is not worth the P.E. that I paid for it. And holy shit, I need to rush to safety.

And that safety is gold. I do think that safety does include Bitcoin. I'm not as convinced about the disinflationary narrative. It makes sense in a stable world, but we're not living in a stable world at the moment. There are some very deep geopolitical shifts. There are some climate shifts. And I do think that inflation is here to stay,

largely because of energy costs, but also because of the fiscal stimulus that we are going to be seeing across the board, across nations, across jurisdictions in years to come. That is not only going to fuel inflation, it is also going to fuel a flight of capital around the world as everyone's looking for the rather elusive safe havens.

So my longer term view is, yes, short term, we could be seeing some hopefully deflationary numbers. That would be very good news, but they're going to be transitory because politics is not heading in that direction. Dave, to your point about Germany, Bitcoin Ether reverse losses as Germany gets back 200 million Bitcoin from exchanges.

This is old news to people who've been around, but this is our first show of the week. But just to show how ridiculous they are. First of all, they were sending it to open exchanges, cracking Coinbase literally just to sell on the market. To your point, that was obviously inefficient. But they basically sold a ton, then for some unexplained reason bought back 200 million no no no no no no and then sold 900 more what happened that's what i read yeah not what happened what happened was they sent they had open orders that didn't get filled

and so that reverts so what happens is is when you have a position on an exchange, I have an order to sell 100 Bitcoin. And the exchange basically takes that away from your position and puts a hold on the wallet. And if 50 sell, you get 50. And the other order cancels, you get 50 back. So they didn't buy it back. Failed sale. Failed sale. But they did end up selling.

You know, more than half has been sold. It was just sold stupidly. But every time, and I mean every time, you know, we're getting to, you know, a week. We're getting to, you know, almost once a week. I have to push back on this notion of deflation. Milton Friedman said inflation is an always everywhere monetary phenomena in the sense that it is that can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than an output. I know Keynesians disagree with that. And I know Mike obviously is a Keynesian,

certainly the Bloomberg economics team is. But let's understand that corn could drop and commodities could drop. But the cost of insurance and the cost of services and the cost that people expect to get paid and all of those other things, when most of you look at the last job report, what created the jobs? Government. We have a peacetime deficit in the trillions. Peac time, good economic times, what happens if we do get a recession or a great reset? Our deficit will balloon, would be insane because neither party seems capable of cutting. It is impossible to look at global macro without understanding that the government is literally printing trillions. And that's just in this country. It's not like we're alone.

Basically, Germany is the only country in the G20, I think, certainly in the G7, that isn't running massive fiscal deficits. That is liquidity. The rate is the cost to borrow excess liquidity. So when rates go down, it allows people to pay more on margin. It makes the cost of investing. It lowers your hurdle rate that you need for an investment to take risk. But real liquidity is being pumped into the system constantly. And so to ignore that is to say is, is I think absolutely wrong. There's still more money created. The denominator is such that the more there is to stay in the same place, the price has to increase. And I think that is what we're

seeing. That's point one. Point two is when we look at the stock market, and I've been saying this for well over a year now, and people have scoffed at me, but I think that at this point, it's pretty clear. If you want to make an argument that markets worldwide aren't manipulated, that the government doesn't know about the wealth effect and doesn't care about it, well, I'm not saying they can manipulate it completely. And certainly in the case of a crash, it's kind of hard to see it. But these markets are not free markets. Anyone who thinks they are, you know, I got a bridge to tell them. And it's really important to look at that. If you look at, you know, Mike kind of said, put something in his thing, which is fascinating. And look, they're halfway there. I mean, on the long bond, the long bond ending at like, what do you see, three, seven, nine.

So, you know, basically another, you know, I guess another 40 basis points lower from where it is today. But we were 40 basis points higher than we are today, not all that long ago. That's what the Fed wants. They need to lower the long end of the curve in order to fund the U.S. deficit. And for as far as the eye can see. So they're doing a good job of doing what they want to do. So it's not like I'm saying they're doing a bad job of manipulating. Actually job manipulating actually doing a good job of manipulating. But when you do that correlations and markets get screwed up. And so assuming past correlation when the causation is different, is a problem. And it look, I spent over a decade

running quant strategies. And one of the first things you understand that you worry about, in fact, the the thing you worry about, in almost every quant strategy is something called overfitting. And there you're looking for correlations and you're worrying about spurious correlations. And I think and we all know why I think it. I think that the correlate, the Bitcoin divergent weakness narrative is more based on idiosyncratic things that have happened in the Bitcoin ecosystem since 21. We had this little thing in 22, which was serial bankruptcies that almost destroyed the entire sector. And yet we did get back to where we were in 21. And the network is four times stronger at the same time.

So looking at that as divergent weakness, I mean, I look at it as massive strength. I think it's just a question of what your time frame is. And so all of these things together are important. But what I like to hear from Noel from the macro side is the reason that rate cuts always do what your chart said, Scott, is simple. The expectation of rate cuts always is bullish for the markets. Then once they happen, people say, well, wait a minute, why did they cut? What's going on? Exactly. It's almost like for those fans of Charlie Brown comic strips.

Yes. Why does he keep trying to kick the football? Oh, no, no, no. You know what I mean? And that's not even taking into account the impact of tariffs, which are always inflationary, and the impact of lower immigration, which is always inflationary. Right. And so the other macro event, which we should, I'd love to hear what your guys said, Mike. We had two elections since we last talked. Before we go there, we have Noel for five more minutes, Dave. So I just wanted to, no, but I specifically wanted to ask Noel because I showed that chart and then Dave made a very specific point about liquidity. I don't have the historical context and maybe you guys can answer.

Have we had this sort of situation in the past before those Fed rate cuts when we actually were getting liquidity on the fiscal side, but not on the monetary side? Or is this, can we say this time is different? So maybe that chart doesn't apply in the same manner i mean this time is always different as we all know the river is never the same no matter how often you step in it but the difference now is liquidity is a much bigger role in the market than it has in any of the previous cycles we've never gone through the liquidity flush that we've had over the past few years before and liquidity has never driven exclusively a kind of bull market that we saw post the pandemic when things were really scary. Fundamentally, the market should not have been doing what it was

doing. So the mindset is different. And in the end, it's mindset that drives market. This time is different on that front. People are so excited for the cut, as we've said. I mean, it's been it's been and Mike will get into this after. I mean, it's been, and Mike, we'll get into this after Noah leaves, but it's been the singular driving factor in my mind where for the reason that people remain optimistic and we still have this wealth effect because there seems to be this just massive consensus that it's about to be a liquidity party of epic proportions and nothing can ever go down ever. That makes me very scared. It's okay to say that when debt to GDP is low and the market cap, the stock market cap to GDP is low. Now it's the highest on the way up since 1929 and volatility is the lowest in

15 years. I'd like to say good luck with that one. Yeah. I mean, Noel, is that aligned with sort of how you're thinking? I mean, you laid it out before. You do think, obviously, a stock market crash or correction is coming. This feels like Bitcoin at 69K last cycle euphoria in the stock market. Got to go to 100, right? And, you know, even going further back, I'm old enough to remember the dot-com boom. And this was very much how the internet is going to revolutionize everything. It's going to produce efficiencies that we've never seen before.

And sure enough, they were largely inflated. On the market, again, it's different now. We didn't have the same role of liquidity back then. It was all about the impact of technology. We also didn't have the same concentration that we have now. And back then, there were many, many more stocks that were trading without having any inkling of revenues coming in. You didn't need any business plan to fill this on the stock exchange.

And now those stocks are going the private equity venture capital route. They're not trading. So it's different. But the concentration is dangerous. And the other sectors that are not doing so well, they're sending a very large fundamental signal. Got to keep an eye on employment. Got to keep an eye on housing. It's a very large part of the economy. And one thing that people are overlooking, and then I'll hop off if that's okay with you, is that even if the impact of AI is as the hype masters are predicting, then that is also very bad news for the economy. Sure, there's going to be some excellent efficiencies.

Sure, companies will be able to save costs on workers, but where are those workers going to go? I think, personally, the biggest impact of AI is going to come through the military. The U.S. Department of Defense will be able to reduce a lot of personnel. The thing is, the Department of Defense is the world's largest employer. And again, where are they going to go? This is going to boost the budget deficits even further as you can't exactly let them go hungry on the streets of America. And the spending is going to be even more runaway than it is today in that kind of scenario. Yeah, I'm just laughing because we know that no matter how theoretically efficient they can make the military, they're just going to spend more in principle because that's what we do.

They'll just fail their next audit and only be able to account for 20% instead of 30% of the budget. Yeah, that is our performance chance. Anyway, it's been so great being with you. I'm so sorry I can't stay for the rest of this. I'm going to come back and watch it, though, because they're always interesting, these chants. Thank you so much, Doelle. Mike, you're up. What's your teams talking about, both the hung parliament in France and the massacre of the Tories in England?

The key sense I was hearing is getting rid of incumbents. The quote I heard from our British guys, he expects a more stable environment in England for a while. France, it's a drag on GDP. So I can't really, that's just the basic stuff that most people know. But I always want to pull back a little bit on the military. I have a son who's a captain in the army. He's in harm's way. So we know some of us have little different views of us going out and defending other countries. And the stuff he was telling about some of the technology you're adopting is just shocking. So one thing, the big difference between the U.S. military and the Federal Reserve is the U.S. military 24-7 focuses on error correction. What we did wrong, what we can do right, what are happening in other places. The CIA is in deep in – intelligence forces is in deep in Ukraine well before the invasion.

And you just can't hear about that stuff. But it's just assumed. You know that's going on. So I do – it's great to have low expectations. So I hope we keep that and never have to use it. But the key thing going back to markets is sentiment is shifting except in the stock market price. And that's the bottom line. Sentiment's shifting everywhere in crude oil. Finally, people are starting to come over to, oh yeah, what happens when you go up in crude oil, finally, people are starting to come over to, oh, yeah, what happens when you go up in a rapidly in a world that's shifting, you go down. That's happening in crude oil. It's happening in natural gas. It's happening in corn. I mean, it's happening in food. It's happening in

all commodities. So I'd like to point that's a severe deflationary force. And despite that, a massive money pump, people think people remember. I'm glad you pointed out. It's just classic human nature. It's wonderful how it hasn't changed changed there's one thing i've done in the last two years and gone back and done tons of reading the latest book was um uh the devil take the hindmost by edward chancellor and it's just human nature will never change we are in the midst of a pretty massive speculative frenzy bitcoin was classic leader i just remember going to those conferences and these people were so drunk on enthusiasm going up. And now I just point out it's in a hangover. It's probably going to last. I'll just point out key facts. It's just like Bitcoin divided by the S&P 500. The peak was

around 15 in 2021. This peak was around 13 and change. Right now it's at 10. That's the ratio. Easily can go back to seven. That's where just a normal cycle and reversion. Bitcoin versus gold. The peak was around 35 in 2021. The peak this time was 32. It's at 24 now. Can easily go back to 15. That's just normal. I'm pointing out these are particularly when we get that little backup in equity. So here's the key thing I keep pointing out. You have to have the stock market going up. And that's why we've had only one five percent correction once we see a ten percent correction we'll see who's wearing clothes and right now i think bitcoin's telling us that's what's going to happen so i i wish luck to anybody who plays otherwise but i just have to point on a four-year basis you're really getting hurt in bitcoin there's so many alternatives that are doing much better. They have much lower volatility, typically like NASDAQ, that I think this most hype liquid

asset that was born in the financial crisis ever is just in a hangover that's going to last a while. And it's showing it now. I just give, show me the beef, show me some strength. And every time Dave says that, it keeps breaking down through support. Yeah. And both you and Noel have pointed out, and we've all pointed out countless times, the stock market, as you said, is the one thing that's high. Everything else sort of screaming, right? And this was just one that I pulled up. U.S.

corporate bankruptcies in June reached highest monthly level since early 2020. I mean, I think it's important to note that small businesses and your average people are not feeling the wealth effect of this all-time high stock market. It's not that great out there in the street, right? Well, it depends which part of the street. That's the thing. Yeah. If you're favored by the administration, then you're doing well.

And if you're not, you're not. I mean, if you look at the large versus small businesses, that's amazing. Even people look at it as a proxy as the russell i'm talking about below the russell you look at small businesses versus large businesses that there is divergent weakness that's a real correlated divergent weakness as opposed to bitcoin which i haven't said in a few weeks so let me repeat it again just to understand if you want to look at the correlation of an option to an asset, it's going to look very, very strange, particularly on short time periods. Bitcoin is going to eventually equilibrium for Bitcoin.

The first equilibrium for Bitcoin is equivalency to the market cap of gold, which I haven't done the math, but the numbers you're talking about will look tiny, right? I think Bitcoin is going to be 100, the Bitcoin gold ratio will be well over 100 to, I think it's 150 to get to equivalence. And that's a 5x compared to the kind of small range you're talking about. And it's a question of optionality. Will Bitcoin become digital gold? You're predicting the future like it's a fact. I'm not predicting it. I'm telling you it's not binary in the sense of it could either be that or nothing. It could stay in this for years. What I'm saying is the investment thesis of most of the long-term holders of Bitcoin is a 10x with everything else being equal. That's the investment thesis. So when you look at the correlation of how that thing

moves, I mean, you made the statement, which is just completely wrong. You said, if you bought it, you've been outperformed. Yes, if you bought into Bitcoin only at the top, if you dollar cost average and bought every day, every week, every month over any three year period, you're pretty much, I mean, unless you timed it. So why is that different with any other asset? So why is that different than the other asset? I'm just pointing out the last four years, it's showing that it's potentially its peak. There's no question it got ahead of itself in 21. And there's no question that there was massive waves of forced selling due to over leveraged and fraud in 22. And so, you know, if you look at the correlation of Bitcoin to the stock market, it's from I mean, it's almost non-existent.

Right. You know, depending on how you look at the period, certainly over the last several months, it's been non-existent. I mean, you know that. And, you know, it depends on how you zoom out, zoom in, zoom out. The only correlation there is, the only causation there is, the one thing you said that is absolutely right. And I totally agree with is the pandemic sparked the greatest set of infused liquidity that the world has ever seen. And your comment that we're going to end up in a great reset. I mean, yeah, I think the government can't afford it. But yeah, that's likely. I mean, you know, we have the stock market continuing to outperform and something Noel said is very relevant here. If you look at it on a fundamental basis, and you said it as well, the stock price to GDP is dramatically, it's not at all time highs. We just don't know when the all time highs will stop. There was something I remember before the great financial crisis, there was this, it wasn't a meme then, they were called videos.

Someone did a cartoon which showed the difference in the housing market and on real estate versus affordability in the run up to the global financial crisis versus 1929. Well, this was six months before the top. And it was dramatically higher than in 1929. And it kept going and going and going and going eventually it corrected. Well, markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Correct. And the stock market right now feels into visa V GDP relative to GDP feels very much like that. And what you're seeing is,

as the rocket goes up, peace is falling off the rocket, and it's only just the stuff that is going up. But Bitcoin's not doing that. Bitcoin, compared to its network strength, compared to all of its metrics, it looks cheap. And that's different. And so it's one asset. It's not an asset class. And yes, it led in a sense. It led in the sense of on that day in March, when Powell basically said, here comes my bazooka. I'm not going to let you all fail. Bitcoin was the only market open. So yeah, it led in that sense. But that's not the same thing as leading the economy. It's a very tail wagging the dog here, right? I just told you a sovereign government made a decision worth billions

of dollars on asset that they basically did offhandedly and probably had some undersecretary of undersecretary or whatever they call them in german uh makes an idiotic decision they don't care it's a small asset we care about it because it matters to us because they're just selling off some yeah they don't care at all yeah it's what we think it will be that's all but but your point and and what what what's the what's frustrating to me and a lot of the audience at times is I agree with you that I think, however, Bitcoin, yes, if there is a crash, not a slow motion train wreck driving thing like happened in the 70s, where the stock market starts ratcheting down and ratcheting down and it feeds on itself slowly and surely. I think Bitcoin outperforms. I think it's a hedge in that. Why? Because of those fundamental reasons, because people will start to put money into it because the size of the Bitcoin market is tiny. As long as the Bitcoin

market is being led by leverage, then you're right. And so right now in a stock market sell-off, leverage will contract and you will be right. As fundamental long-term buyers start coming in and saying, okay, this is what we believe in, then you'll be wrong. And if you look at it, we saw this happen once before. It's called the Great Depression. And I've made this point before, but it's worth bears repeating. In the beginning of that, you were not allowed to trade on gold. You couldn't.

America banned it.'t america banned it now they banned it for a specific reason they banned it so that they could steal a lot of money not and canes at the time was by the way was talking about inflation as a stealth ax it was it was banned in 1933 so it was after the crash that was it was a reason for that it well yeah it was banned in 33 in order to reflate the government yeah but we had to have the you have to have the the tide has to go out first before those that's right so that's right but now now look at what happened because if you look over the course of the market the markets went into a everyone knows the 29 crash people don't realize that the bigger losses

happen later as we started moving in and as those bigger losses in those financial companies and other companies were going up, people were buying the home state mining. It was the largest gold producer at the time. Yeah. And it massively outperformed over the tail end of the Great Depression by a historic amount. And honestly, I don't know when we get to that. The thing about markets is every time people say this time is different, well, what they mean to say is this time we're going to anticipate what happened and do it quicker or try to. And that to me is the issue here. I think there are a lot of people who are in Bitcoin who understand what you say is true if we get a massive global liquidity crunch caused by

a destabilized market and a negative wealth effect that is going to be bad for every single financial asset that monday morning or whatever it will be everyone will be on the trading desk everywhere around the world saying sell whatever the hell you can. We can't go bankrupt. Yeah, you're right. Correlation of growth is one. Just a few things there. First, negative wealth effect is way overdue. It happens. It's part of capitalism. And we just haven't had it in a long time. I mean, where a stock market stays down and doesn't make a new high for five years. It's just overdue. It's always happened in history. A key thing I want to push back a little bit is, and you can respond to this later. I've heard this pushed back to me. I used to use that metric, the hash rate, when I was bullish Bitcoin, I pointed out is there is nothing. And what is the direct connection between the growing network of Bitcoin,

which is expanding, that increasing hash rate and people buying the actual, creating more demand, buying more of this actual speculative digital asset. Now remember, in the long term, I'm still bullish Bitcoin. But first of all, at least finally, it's good to hear from Bitcoiners saying, I want, like you said, you think Bitcoin's going to outperform the stock market on the way down? And I see that happening with gold. And as I say, I don't disagree with that in the long term. I've been writing about that for five years. I have not seen proof of it.

And that's what I'm pointing out right now. I've seen proof of the opposite, certainly since March. And we kind of, all of us waited for that fully expected new highs. We got that. And now it's showing that maybe beta needs to go down and then Bitcoin will go up. But my point is you're talking about a couple of bridges down the road and there'll be a lot of pain on the way. I'm talking to the first bridges. We need to get through this period where we can prove that. And right now it's proving that you probably, Bitcoin to me is telling me you're supposed to liquidate all risk assets and be focused on gold and treasury.

That's what my takeaway from what it's telling me right now. Maybe it'll flip around, go right back above that 200-day mover. It has to prove me an idiot, but all the fundamentals are shifting towards following the rules of, I'm sorry, the guidance of Japan. Remember, debt to GDP is 300%, yet the rates are zero and they have zero inflation. So that's where we're potentially going. They own a lot of the assets in the country. That's where we're potentially going.

And that's what's happening in the second largest country at the moment right now. What stops us from falling? The main thing is our stock market has to stay elevated. Bitcoin is telling me it's probably not going to last much longer. Mike, I have to ask you a question. Maybe it's just a very single event. The one time we did see it happen was when the banks collapsed and Bitcoin skyrocketed. So that's not the same, obviously, as a stock market retracement. But when the weekend Silicon Valley collapsed, I think Bitcoin went from 19 to 25 in a matter of days. I think it was pretty clear it was a reaction to that, or at least those manipulating and trading the market wanted you to believe that.

But does that at all change the thinking, or is that a meaningful factor, or is it just too small of a sample size? David Steinberger, I'm glad you pointed out, at least it was an incident that shows that, yes, we've seen that happen before in some other sovereign risks, assets, sovereign debt issues. Yeah, that's good. It's good to see. I mean, it's what you want to see in the long term. But that was now we're past the launch of the ETFs. We've had this massive pump to new prices. We've had an event that some of us have been waiting for for a decade and it's over. And now we're in the hangover. So it's just the lessons that I've learned in commodities.

They go down because they went up. Bitcoin might be like that. Now, the stock market goes up because it goes up. But commodities aren't. Don't do that. So right now, we're going down because it went up. And the question is, when does that flip? And right now, it's telling me it's still going lower. Okay. I have to push back two things. First, commodities go down because economic incentives make people produce more of it more efficiently you mentioned corn now frankly i'm doing everything i can not to eat the shit that archer daniels and and monsanto creates because of uh the gmo the genetically modified i was there for that conversation where you were swayed by the way it was you but it matters and you've made the point many times, and I violently agree with you, that the fact is our technology is why we're able to produce more oil, why the U.S. should be by far and away the dominant producer.

And we are one of the dominant producers of oils because of technology. You cannot create more Bitcoin. So that is literally that one. No, I'm going to push back on that. Every Bitcoiner will push back on that. So let's just bury that one. I don't think you meant to say it that way. I think what you meant to say is the demand for Bitcoin will go down because people don't care or because it's a financial, it's a nuanced view that I have, and I want to be clear about this because we keep talking about it. When the marginal buyer of Bitcoin is hot money, i.e. people speculating, it trades like a risk asset, and it has been like that for a long time. The marginal buyer, the difference in the ETFs, you said that it's over, we're past it. We haven't even scratched the surface of it. State of Wisconsin, everyone made, oh, my God, look, they bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin. They put their pinky toe in. They're a tenth of what even anybody who does a recommendation of asset classes. They're at a tenth of a percent. What we've seen in Bitcoin ETFs, most of the predictions for Bitcoin ETFs were that the real buying would happen from 12 to 18 months and beyond after launch, because it takes that long for institutions to get into it. We're six months in.

And it's just really important to understand that. And a lot of us said this. I said it at the time. I said, yeah, the hot money is going to chase it. But the key with the Bitcoin ETF is in this ridiculous system where the SEC picks winners and losers and tells you what you can and cannot invest in. There was no way for 50% of the world's assets to invest in Bitcoin without paying a huge premium or suffering a large discount. What we call the widowmaker trade, the GBTC trade, the trade that caused the essence of all the bankruptcies happened because the SEC wouldn't let anybody buy Bitcoin for years except through that. And so it went to a 50% or 25% premium. And then as soon as there were futures and other things that the rich could speculate on, the premium went boom, went to a discount, causing a disaster. But the total size

of that trade relative to our capital markets is still infinitesimal. And that's what matters here. It is absolutely a net that the ETF was a necessary condition for institutional adoption and asset allocation, it is not sufficient. What becomes sufficient is what it builds on itself. Now, it may not. You're right. It is an option. But that is the point. Does that narrative gain strength or does it fade out? That is the key for Bitcoin. Notice in none of that am I looking at, well, what's going on with the price of NVIDIA in the stock market? And that's kind of the point. It is not a correlated asset per se, but when the pot money has been pushing into it, and you're right about that, that's what's driven it. Now, are we out of that?

Is this cycle the cycle where that ends? I don't know. But one last word on cycles, because Scott and I, I think the answer is no. Scott and I have both said we expect Bitcoin to stay in a trading range until the fall. And I still think that. And I checked my, well, OK, what is it? OK, July 9th. Yeah, we're not into the fall yet.

So do I expect more divergent weakness based on if the stock market continues to go up until October? Yeah, I guess I do. Do I think this might be a year where we get a correction in August and a Fed that panics because the White House says, oh, my God, you can't let our economy go into the shitter before the election. And so we get a liquidity pump in the fall, which will coincide with Bitcoin. Actually, yeah, it's a reasonable scenario. I want you to talk about that, Mike. So I want to just look just quickly, because we do have for people to know Powell is on the floor today and tomorrow. Listen, when we usually see these Fed chairs and SEC chairs and stuff, it's very scripted. And the opposing side gets to yell out their questions, not expecting any answers just to show their bluster and play the political

side. But Powell is going to have to sit there now and answer questions about rate cuts and about less fractional reserve banking and a lot of things that are hot button issues right now. Is any of this going to matter? And one of the key questions they're expecting him to answer is, are you political, basically? We have a good juxtaposition here. Scott, you in the middle, Dave, very much on the conspiracy theorist side, and me very much on the more rational side. I don't really think, I think Powell's already proved his initial pushback to Trump was profiles encouraged. And I think he's thinking more legacy legacy and he's not going to go down in history as an idiot who just did what the government wanted. I think that's the superior force here, particularly particularly people in that position. You know, you're going to be measured for history the rest of your life. And he's that kind of person.

He's talked about previous Fed governors. So I don't think he's going to deliberately avoid that. But first, I want to push back on what you said. And not just point out, you said what's going to happen, Dave. I want to see proof of it happening. Show me that proof. I will be on top of it right away. It's my pattern recognition skills, which got me out of that trading pitch in Chicago to New York trading desk, was show me, I'll show you the minute I see those pattern recognitions of bitcoin doing what you say it's going to do then i will be all on top of it but right now i'm telling you it's not only do it's doing the exact opposite of what you're saying it's going to do and i'm hope you'll be right but right now i'm saying you're you're being wrong you've been wrong on that part of it and

pointed out at some point that's going to flip and i'll be i'll let you know but right now i'm saying to me it's showing that you we should all be more worried about just a normal reversion in all risk assets. And the riskiest is Bitcoin at three times the volatility, a history of being average of five times the volatility of beta. To say it's going to go up when beta goes down at some point, that might work. But right now, here's the main problem. It's telling you.

It's telling us. Yeah, and everybody keeps saying it's just a little correction, a little correction. But it's you know, it's just it's point out the facts right now. It's underperforming. So at some point for everyone who loves to our banter, I want to be clear. I totally agree with you from a trading perspective. What you're saying is right. If anybody who worked for me when I was running Trading Desk said, I'm holding on to this boss because I really believe it in the long run, they wouldn't have been employed as a trader for very long. You're absolutely right. If you're

a long-term investor and you're not leveraged and you're not worried about getting wiped out of your position and you have a piece of your portfolio that you're placing there for multiple years in your time horizon, that's who I'm talking to. And everybody watching this should understand that difference because I say this a lot. I mean, I mentioned the state of Wisconsin at 0.1%. If you have 2%, 3% of your portfolio in Bitcoin as a hedge or whatever, or even if you use Bitcoin as a savings vehicle for cash that you have as savings and you only spend and you're using it, but that's not what you're spending. You don't care if Bitcoin drops 20% now, which is a normal correction for it, or even 30% from here, and then does whatever if you have conviction in the long run. And maybe you'll be wrong, but it's a safe part of your portfolio. What Mike is talking about are everybody who actually are the marginal buyers and sellers in the market. They trade. And traders, the one thing you don't want to do is get wiped out.

Money management matters. And so most of what's happening in every asset class, and the reason we have crashes, is because the crash happens when the last skeptic buys the overinflated asset, right? And so we always laugh about this. We see the markets, there. There's all sorts of great trading things. But when does the crash happen? Well, when everybody who was skeptical about NVIDIA finally says, okay, I'm going to go to overweight in NVIDIA and there's nobody else left to buy at these prices. And then it starts selling. And then all of a sudden it's like,

oh my God, what am I going to do? And people start panicking and it drops and the whole market drops with it. That's where it's at. That didn't happen recently. Oh, no. And I'd say you're absolutely right. It's a perfect example. But I kind of, like I pointed out, I kind of thought it was crazy when Vidya hit 140, dropped all the way to 118. And what happened was all the other tech stocks made multi-mise.

It's a frenzy. It's just, who knows what it's got. And Mike is right. It is, you can't, trees don't grow to the sky. The stock market can't be worth that much more than GDP, unless you expect GDP to catch up because we're inflated, because we're reprinting so many more dollars that our nominal GDP is going to go up that much more. That's the only way that you could rescue it, literally, you know, in the end. I mean, it's just the way it is. I mean, you mentioned Japan. I mean, you said Japan has no inflation. My brain can't understand this. The Japanese currency in three years has devalued 40 percent for zero.

How is there no inflation when they import all their raw materials? They you know, it is what it is. I mean, I am sure the cost of a melon, which, by the way, is a princely gift, always has been around for the holidays holidays in Japan has gone up dramatically. Yeah. I'm sure that, that, you know, they've outsourced, they've done other things, but it's really hard for me to understand how an aging population who's been forced to keep their money in their postal bank, getting paid just about no interest, how all of that, that that's working, you know, it's just, there's something going on there. It feels-

Simple reversion. Reversion. Okay. We've recently accelerated the value of the stock market in Japan up to those highs, but the price of real estate of Japan was the biggest issue. It just got way too expensive and reverted. That's where the deflation came from. Now, obviously it's reinflating, you pointed out, but you know how expensive it was in the end of 1994 times GDP. The state of

the Paris Palace was valued at the same amount as the total real state of California. It's just simple reversion is what happened. And that's what I'm pointing out is going to happen here. It's happening in China now. Yeah. I think that it's funny when I listen to you guys because you generally agree. We just don't agree on Bitcoin, but I agree on effectively. We do. We do. It's all about time. I always say that Mike doesn't get credit for the fact,

if you've been reading Mike's writing for years, you've always been very pro-Bitcoin and you do believe in it long-term and so it's just important for people to specify or understand time timeframe when we're talking about this. Yeah. And that's something that Dave points out with the state of Wisconsin.

I was running commodities at S&P and back then the story was all the pension funds, endowments, family wealth funds were allocating to commodities, partly for the diversification, equity-like returns and insurance policy to inflation. They got stopped out. I remember all the people I knew in this business, they just got hammered. Barclays wiped out. Goldman Sachs, the whole team there wiped out. CalPERS, I met the people there, wiped out.

It just didn't work. And it took a long time, but they all bought into it. Just sensing the same thing now, and I have to point out what I've seen before. And you also point out some other things. It's just a little lesson you learned when you were running data and running trading. I was in the trading pits. The lesson we learned was from market wizards. And obviously, I'm from a leveraged futures background, I think long-term, but the bottom line is a statement. And the lesson I learned is if you're losing money, statement's all that matters.

I mean, that is true. I mean, look, the biggest difference between you and I is I'm much more of a monetarist than you are, which is actually kind of amusing because I've been the one pointing to what's going on on the fiscal side. But we have this crazy world where the populations of most of the advanced countries are more disaffected and are surprising their leadership with the amount of that disaffection. I mean, the effect in France was crazy because now Mario is hosting a roundtable now and his the title actually it's it's I don't see it anymore, but the title was about, you know, the left in France is going to tax crypto and so blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I mean, yeah, like like that's going to tax crypto and so blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I mean, yeah, like that's going

to be enough. I mean, is France going to pull themselves out of the EU or they're just going to tax gains? And so everybody in crypto will leave Paris and go to Dubai. I mean, I'm sure that I'm sure that I'm sure the Emiratis are salivating at more European taxes because and the US should be too. I mean, you know, I'm not saying that they'll win, but if we either got a Trump or RFK administration, crypto innovation in the United States will have a renaissance. And if France actually did do that, it would be horrendously dumb on their part. But, you know, who knows? I mean, we don't know what's going to happen. We know is there's a lot of pissed off people out there, because most of the economic

strength has been going to basically to I hate to use the 1% I will pick a percentage, but we are disproportionately economically globally, mostly benefiting the already rich by a combined great jacket of more regulation and financial liquidity pumping. That is exactly why I am in Bitcoin, has been from the beginning, because I see it as a way out. Do I see it as a way out this cycle? No. Do I see it as a long-term answer for people? Yes. And long-term is long-term answer for people yes and it long term is long term now we're starting to see the

the thing that's happening and and i saw uh the new english pm you know they haven't said much about crypto but they are big fans of two things one that that that really scares me and one that i i take as as absolute what scares me is they want a CBDC. They want a digital pound. And two, they believe in tokenization, which I believe will happen that the entire world will end up tokenizing all assets, including equities. None of that has anything to do with Bitcoin. It's just about technological efficiency. But we have no idea what that means is, is they would tolerate Bitcoin. They're not in a situation where they want to promote it. They want to promote the pound. The US is different. And to go back to something Mike McGlone gets credit for, because you're one of the first people that I heard

talking about it years ago now, is the same thing is true if you look at the Republican platform, which we also didn't mention and deserves comment. The Republican platform is massively pro-crypto, but if you look at the actual planks of the platform, one of the first things is to keep the US dollar as reserve status, and he sees, the Republicans see, crypto dollars, as Mike calls them, as a key way to do that. Now, think about this. Let's play the game of chess. We don't have to play 10 moves in advance. But if you think just a little bit in advance, you end up with a very simple point. If all the major civilized countries in the world want to go to tokenization, meaning you're going to have everything trading pairwise digitally, and if the US dollar is backing the vast majority of stable coins throughout the system,

then effectively the U.S. dollar becomes a reserve asset for the entire global asset market. If you're not allowing that to happen, the U.S. dollar will eventually lose its reserve status. So to criticize crypto and tokenization and the notion of crypto dollars is devastatingly dumb. And the Republicans are trying to stake out a world where they're the ones who are saying, we're going to support the dollar, and they're just trying to pigeonhole the Democrats. I can only hope that smart young Democrats like Richie Torres and others in the Democratic Party who understand what I'm saying is true, don't let the octogenarians in the Democratic Party force them into being on that side. That is literally what we face because, and Mike, I give you credit, you said it before a lot

of other people did. Mike, last comment. Your follow-up question on that, Dave. What stops this process of tokenization? It's a better technology. I look at it. It's like I saw the advent of futures. We saw the advent of ETFs. Tokenization is next. I don't see what stops it. The only thing that stops it are entrenched interests and government regulation. They don't stop it. They delay it. In 1990- Exactly. It's just a delay. Just a delay. We knew that all the world stock markets would go electronic because it was a much faster, you know, it was just much faster. But the specialists in the New York Stock Exchange still had to approve every single trade until finally 2005.

So 13 years later, when regulation broke their monopoly, That is what's going on. When Jamie Dimon can call the shots with Elizabeth Warren to claim in public that they fight each other, but in private to keep the banks in charge of the system. And that's why, you know, John Deaton is so important. And you can see what they're doing, right? You know, they understand that. That is what they're doing.

That is what stops it. It doesn't stop it. It delays it because there's a lot of money being made i mean just the notion of float think about it i mean i i want i told you i won i came in second in a world series of poker circuit online event and i went to withdraw money on on on the weekend from my account still hasn't hit my bank account so for multiple days some bank owned by caesar's corporation or my bank city bank is making money on the interest on my winnings and that is normal in our system as soon as we tokenize everything as soon as everything moves with the speed of light which it does with it does with any stable coin or any crypto,

that goes away. That's billions of dollars the banking system makes. They're going to fight that. They're going to keep fighting until people realize, oh my God, they're stealing from us effectively. Mike, any final comment? It's 10.04.

I think you and Dave, I think Dave nailed it. It's good. It was great having No and Dave, I think Dave nailed it. So it's good. Love it. It was great having Noelle, even if only for 30 minutes, she offers such great perspective. And James will definitely be back next week. And Mike, I know you might be traveling for a while, finally taking that brain out of the market holiday soon, right? I will jump on if I think it's worthy. I don't want to keep repeating the same thing to annoy our listeners. But if it's something, if it's volatile, I can't get away from markets. I'm addicted. David Collum You, me, Dave, I can speak for all of us.

That's one thing we could definitely do. It's really hard to turn off. All right, guys, thank you so much. See you on Spaces in 10 minutes, obviously back tomorrow. And thank you guys for doing it on a Tuesday. Appreciate it. See you next week. Bye.