The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Crashed! Should You Buy Bitcoin RIGHT NOW? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: January 27, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Noelle Acheson as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Noelle Acheson: https://x.com/NoelleInMadrid Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  Subscribe to Crypto is Macro Now by Noelle Acheson: https://www.cryptoismacro.com/ ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

China released a chat GPT competitor called DeepSeek and rocked global markets. Of course, that means Bitcoin also dropped to around $97,000, currently trading back above $100,000. But global markets clearly wobbling and concerned what cheap AI from China might mean for everything, especially for big tech in the United States. We have an incredible panel, as always, here to discuss this. We've got Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and Noel Atchison. Note, James Lavish today. You guys don't want to miss this conversation about what's happening with Bitcoin, where it's going, and how that fits in to the macro. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets.

Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Sorry for the slight late start. We had a collective tech woes across the board. I've got Mike, Dave, and Noelle. Hopefully, Noelle can hear us. Maybe not. She wasn't able to hear us before, so hopefully, she'll be able to. But Mike, we're going to obviously start here with China and with DeepSeek because, wow, it really rocked markets this morning. NVIDIA was down 12%, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap. I believe I saw a tweet that said NVIDIA erased one Ethereum this morning in market cap. But to put that in context, we have DeepSeek, which is basically a chat GPT competitor, the most downloaded thing, I think, in the App Store right now for a day,

which blows my mind that we're banning TikTok with downloading Chinese AI, but we can discuss that another time. And they did it for less than $6 million. And the United States has spent billions of dollars on this technology. It sounds like the U.S., the Soviet Union using a pencil in space in the U.S. trying to develop the weightless pen.

But the key thing about – and I enjoy getting that laugh and that giggle out of Dave. But the key thing about deep-seeking brings me over to the macro big picture. It was just a matter of time, according to Jeff Booth, who wrote about this price of tomorrow. Why deflation is a key to an abundant future. It's obviously a big Bitcoiner. I had the honor of sitting next to Jeff at a conference well before COVID. And this is just a matter of time. When you have massive, rapidly increasing technology and profits, you're just on the radar for someone else to help figure it out how to do that. And we've seen that everywhere. So right now, the good news is this is just a one-off. It's just a shot across the bow.

We're at absolutely record lofty levels in equities. And good news is Bitcoin's just pinned at 100,000. So Bitcoin doesn't matter to me until it stays above 110,000 or stays below 90,000. Right now, it's just pinned there. But to me, the macro is very much deflationary bearish. And from my call this morning with Bloomberg Economics, Gina Martin-Adams has still pointed out there's just tech earnings are the biggest problem. There's just the valuations are too lofty.

And her point was that really struck me. Well, operating margins just look peakish. That really triggered for me because I think WTI crude oil has peaked at 80. I think natural gas has peaked at $4 per MMB to you. I think copper has probably peaked at $4.50. We've all bounced up to these levels. Corn has peaked around $5. Everything I see looks peaking, and probably because of what happened last year when copper peaked at $5.20.

Right now it's around $4.20. You look at managed money net positions, futures, speculators get way too long. And that looks like everything's tilting lower. At the same time, the crude oil peaked around 80. And that natural gas peaked around four. So did the US long bond around 5%. So the bottom line roping it all together. If the US stock market has a little bit of back and field, God help us if we have a 10% correction. That's pretty severe deflation kicking in. I think the best performance in that environment will be gold. Maybe not initially.

Dave always points out that right. It will be TLT or long bonds. The key question is, are we going to avoid a normal 10% correction? Maybe we finally have the reason. And the bottom line, I've enjoyed speaking with my colleague who's here from Venezuela. She has to be because of the volatility of their leader. We have a very volatile leader that every day that goes by, there's going to be more volatility in markets.

Since when is volatility good for equities? Noelle, can you hear us? Yes, I'm sorry about the tech issues to start with. I could only hear Mike, which is a wonderful thing to hear. Hi, Mike. But I couldn't hear the rest of you. Apologies.

It's Chinese AI. They heard me say deep seek and they canceled my voice for you so that you couldn't participate in the conversation, obviously. I mean, that's what I get for being in Europe and closer, right? Yeah. I mean, so this has obviously rocked markets, right? And I'm trying to unpack whether it should or it shouldn't, right? I mean, obviously you get the immediate, hey, they're using black market NVIDIA chips. This is just like stolen chat GBT with a couple of little updates. Hard to really know at this point what's going on here.

But it does sort of expose potentially the overvaluation of the biggest tech stocks in the United States. The overvaluation and the concentration. And this is something that you and I have talked about often before. And I know Dave is impiding on this also. The concentration has been a massive risk, but that's always the case with concentration in absolutely anything. It always increases vulnerability, and we generally don't realize it because concentration is convenient until it bites us in the ass, if I can say that, in public. And that's what we're seeing here today.

It's not just the necessary re-evaluation of the expected earnings per share, as well as prices, as well as CapEx for the big tech companies, but it's the concentration in the market. However, moving beyond that, this is arguably excellent news. I mean, cheaper AI is good for everybody and everybody is going to win. What we could see, and this is going to be very good news for all of us watching this, especially you knowing what your viewers are interested in, this is good for the decentralization of the power of AI. And if I may be so bold as to say so, anything that weakens some outruns potential influences, good news in my book. So, yeah, I'm glad you said that, Noelle, because my first thought was, oh, here we

go again, stupidity in the way the masses are trading. And, you know, it's not stupid for NVIDIA to go down, although I think that we're going cooler heads are going to prevail at some point. It's not stupid for big tech and big indices to go down, but it's idiotic for the Russell or small caps or crypto to go down in a sense. But let me clarify. So there's two possibilities here. We game theory it out, right? So you got possibility one, this is real.

Possibility number two, this is a bunch of horseshit. Or let's phrase it differently. There's actually a third possibility that it's real, but it was real because they stole the IP. So those are the only three possibilities. We agree on that? Okay. If it's real and you can train an AI model really cheaply,

then that is bad for NVIDIA because it means people are going to spend less. You're going to need less chip power. You're going to need less whatever the hell they use. Now, of course, we have no idea at this point how much actual compute power these guys use. And we have no idea if NVIDIA chips were involved. So you don't really know what the story is. I'd be very curious to see that. But let's just take the posit and say, okay, it's real.

It's cheaper. What does that mean? Well, that means, as Noelle said, exactly my thought. I mean, that's why, you know why you and I have been friends for years. I love the way your mind works. It's exactly what I thought. It's like if you are building a decentralized application, if you are doing anything, it's going to be cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and easier to make this stuff work. And it's going to pervade our lives. To quote the great Mike McGlone, it is a deflationary force in the same way that outsourcing was a deflationary force in the same way anything, if this is real, it will hasten global liquidity to fly in because it means that people who are put out of jobs or

whatever are going to put strains on government. We already have multiple reasons to believe that liquidity is on the way. And we can talk about that normally on MacroMoney, that's what we'll be talking about. But there's very good reason to believe that that's true. The bond market is telling you that it's likely true. I mean, the 10-year is now relaxing back down. It's now at, what, four, five, three, something or other. And it's telling you, hey, we don't give a shit anymore. So fine. So the government can do what the hell they want in terms of liquidity. And I think that's what's going to move markets. I've seen a bunch of posts over the last week. I was skiing, so I wasn't following it very carefully about how the expectation of M2 continuing to move higher is happening.

So that's if it's real. Now, I don't see why that crushes Bitcoin. Anything, however, can prick a bubble. And we've seen a bubble in meme coins. You know, I saw, I happened to see Ran, you know, our friend from Crypto Banter posted his bubble chart this morning. And the biggest bubble down was Fartcoin, which makes me smile. But, you know, it's, you could look at it. I mean, I'm looking at my portfolio and, you know, I'm mostly Bitcoin and Solana. I've said that. And XRP is my third biggest holding. So,'m looking at my portfolio and you know i'm mostly bitcoin and solana i've said

that and an xrp is my third biggest holding so you know my portfolio is down sure but i couldn't care less and there's no leverage i'm not planning on touching that for for quite some time so i don't give a crap but when you look at at what's going on in the market i mean you see there's a lot of things with like stupid evaluation so we've talked this. What's been driving the meme coin market? Well, profits from Bitcoin spill out into that. And so what you're seeing is traders decreasing their continue. And I tend to agree completely with Mike. I think as long as we're in the, you know, I had 92 to 102 as the main range. You know, we've kind of gone above it. Whatever, you know, we're quibbling. But we're in the same idea.

We're stuck there until we see, you know, the next leg of real buying exhaust supply and people will take whatever profits they're going to take. And things like this are an excuse for people to either take profits or, as we always say, Mike, what do people sell? What they have to, what they can, what they have to. And so people, when their markets start going down and markets are closed, they're like, well, do I sell, you know, these tech stocks before the market opens or do I sell my liquid Bitcoin? Well, you sell your liquid Bitcoin. What does that do? That causes people in crypto to go, uh-oh, and they sell everything. And that's what we've seen. And so, you know, be calm and understand what's happening. So anyway, we talked about the scenarios. If it's fake, this whole thing, this is going to be a bear trap, right? If it turns out that it's complete fake, it will be a bear trap, the likes of which people will be whining about markets are rigged and, you know, investigations, et cetera. And if it's stolen IP, then you're going to see our president talk about it and say, you see, this is why we can't trust them.

And this is why we need more IP protections. And this is why we need more protectionist policies. And this is why my company or this company is going to buy ByteDance. Everything will be okay. You guys are whining about this. It's going to cause all sorts of politics that we have no idea which way it's going to go. Now, what do I think it is? I have no idea.

What do you guys think? So I got to follow up on that one. First of all, there's always saying in markets that he who panics first panics best. I suggest panic. And obviously, but I got to disagree with you, Dave, because it's more fun. And let's do that and just play that game a little bit. And so first of all, is it real? The deflationary forces from China are significant and very similar to what we saw from Japan, but much more extreme 30 years ago. Just look at EVs and renewables. They shifted, according to a couple of books I read, they

shifted almost complete banking focus from housing. We see what's happened with housing, that's deflationary, towards things like you're seeing happen, hit the tape today. And again, this is just the things that were predicted by Jeff Booth. It's all happening that way. So the key thing I want to rope over to is the 10-unit yield in China, 1.63, severe deflation. I think that US 10-unit is going that way. You look at the other top five countries in the world, their average 10-units is about 120, 130 base points below the US. It's just a matter of time. The one main pillar holding everything up is that wonderful US stock market, which we all know at some point, nothing matters except prices when they go too high and they go down. It doesn't take any. It just takes a tweak.

It doesn't need a reason. And is it now? No. But the key thing I'm seeing in commodities is every single major commodity, with the exception of gold, looks like they've peaked for a good reason. Crude oil's got to go down or Trump's going to get upset. But he has fundamentals in his favor. Copper's look, it's peaked. I mentioned all those. Natural gas, corn, all those. And the key thing I want to really tilt over is I've never, you know, I was really bullish cryptos

many years ago and mine was around 10,000 and 5,000 Bitcoin. But then I can look in coin market cap and there's only a couple thousand listed. Now there's 10 million cryptos. And I run a repeat of headline I saw this weekend on Bloomberg. Coinbase CEO says surge in new tokens making evaluations harder. It's just you got to point out, Brian Armstrong has pointed out the fact that massive excess of supply, speculation, ease of entry has never been good for prices. So to me, Bitcoin does have competition, potentially from gold, but most notably from all the other cryptos. So this is what I'm really worried about in this space is to look at it and say it's different. Yes, we have the president involved. It might be so extreme now that I'd love to see the same.

We'd get that 10% correction in the equity market and say Bitcoin doesn't go much below 70. That would be wonderful. But at some point, we're going to get it. I think it's going to happen this year. My chief equity strategy is on top of that the stock market needs to go down. It's too expensive. And now do we have a reason? But it's also the time of year that you make, you get all the new decisions have been made to get long. They all got long commodities, all got long cryptos in the stock market. And now the first month's over, let's get some reality,

see what happens. I'm obviously from a commodity standpoint, I'm with this. With the exception of gold, I think they're all going down. And in the meantime, Dave always points out knee-jerk reaction. So you got to sell a little bit of that store value. So there's so much.

I would love to respond, but I'd like Noel to respond first because I don't want to talk too much. I totally agree that, thank you so much, Dave. You are the best. I totally agree that, it is being sold by those that are selling, you know, want to take some weight off anything when they can. But that's mainly from those that have always seen Bitcoin as a risk asset.

Many of the long-term holders, and I know there will be two on this call, were not heard by this. We still believe in the tailwinds. And we can respectfully disagree with Mike that it's heading down to around 70. If it did, that is the almighty buying opportunity because liquidity trends are positive. We can agree on that. And I believe that what we've seen from Deep Seek is going to add even more power to the move towards greater liquidity. Because what is Trump's potential reaction. We've seen that tariffs aren't going to be effective here because it is precisely the blockage of sending Nvidia chips to China that encouraged, shall we say, some experimentation with what they had on hand. It is that that has driven this breakthrough necessity being the mother of invention. Tariffs aren't going to work here. They're not going to stop China's innovation and

potential lead in this. What will? More expenditure on the US competitive position. We know David Sachs has often warned before about the threat from Chinese innovation. He's spoken about this often. He's also spoken publicly about how tariffs don't really work. So what can he do? Get more money thrown at the problem. This is going to be good for AI because there's a lot of clearing out of barriers coming. There's a lot more incentivized investment coming. And this will also spill over into the other main technology under his purview, which is going to be crypto. This is even before we get into the impetus for decentralized services. So I need to jump on top of that because that's exactly right. And we've had probably the single best politically obvious demonstration of just how horrendously bad government regulation is over the last few weeks.

So in California, there was this press conference with Trump who made, of course, the mayor of California does a great job of making herself look like a horse's ass without any help. Trump absolutely did. He destroyed her, and millions upon millions of people have watched this. The idea of, well, we need a week to clear out debris. We need to make sure of this. We need to protect people. People are desperate to actually go get things done. People are now starting to get the aha moment that regulation is disastrous for innovation and building. Now, why does this matter? Because if, and we'll go to the is it real part, if it's real, what is going to be Trump's and Elon and other people's response? It's going to be let's let innovators innovate. Who will be the biggest single beneficiary of letting innovators innovate? Well, it will be tech startups and it will be protocols and companies that are well positioned.

Is there anybody alive who knows anything about crypto who doesn't believe that a decentralized crypto model won't require crypto incentive structures where you can incentivize developers, incentivize users, incentivize people to contribute data, et cetera. Anybody who believes that. You want to understand why things like, I don't know who the winners will be, whether it be Solana or Sui or any of the other networks, doesn't matter. But that's going to be a big deal for crypto and crypto companies in the US. At the same time, is any of this likely to require the United States to spend less money and print less money, or the G7 spend less money or print less money? And if the answer to that is yes, okay, Mike, you're going to be right, right? If liquidity is big, it dies down.

But I don't think that's the case. I think it's the exact opposite. I think what you could see is the next space race and people willing to, asel said throw money at it so you can call it sputnik moment you you combine more liquidity into markets and letting innovators innovate and you're going to see all sorts of weird stuff happening sure uh things that have nothing to do with this are hopefully will will drop but things that are ai related you know look if you're an ai star now i i hate doing a shameless plug but i'm going to anyway so uh you know i what my my one of my small investments uh is with a ai dog coin that my son and his friends are sparky token and you know what he did is he he this this actually happened you look it up sparkytoken. And, you know, what he did is he, this, this actually happened. You can look it up

sparkytoken.com and you can see this dog. So he bought this robot dog from China and realized that the AI interface and the software was awful. And he rewrote it and is now teaching the dog new and new stuff and making the interface much better. And, you know, whether that creates a community or not, I don't know. You can all check it out, look at it, right? But the fact is that if AI gets cheaper and cheaper and better and better and easier to train, you're going to see all change that happens. There will be winners and losers. And Mike is right about one thing very important, which is the stock market, which is the engine of wealth and the engine of keeping our economy going, is so dependent on the mega caps in the stock market. And so many people have their 401ks and mega caps that could be getting disrupted. That's a big deal.

Now, if you think about it, and people who go through indexes don't think about it this way, people in the 90s, before the internet bubble, were massively overweight things like General Electric, which lagged awfully. And so, you know, we don't know what will happen. Now, then, obviously, if things go completely to the upside on all the smaller stuff, the disruptive stuff, then yeah, people will do okay. But there were some very bumpy rides along the way and people do not remember. It's like, it's really hard for people to understand just how crazy things got before they corrected to create what we've seen since 2009. I mean, historically, Mike, have we ever

had a period where from 2009, from the bottom of the GFC to now, has there ever in history of markets been this long of a sustainable market without a major, without a 20% correction? Has it ever happened? The only near examples are the 90s and the 50s, and they always have had issues. Yeah. Right. So we're kind of in an unprecedented time where, and I believe, and I think Noel agrees with this, that it's unprecedented in part because global monetary authorities in the fiat system have been engineering it to be so. And the question is, is how long can they continue? And in my mind, the opt out is Bitcoin. That's why I still think at some point we're going to get a major delink over time. And I don't know whether it will be because of a strategic reserve. I don't know what will be the actual proximate cause. We've talked about

ad nauseum what could be the cause. I just think there are people patiently accumulating and eventually the crypto community will run out of supply and at which point things will take off. And I still think the four year cycle is intact. I always tend to think that what Scott says is true, that we should just shut the hell up, not do anything and know that, yeah, we're going to have a lot of bumpiness. But at some point we look back and we're sitting in April or May, you know, we're 160, 170, 180 in Bitcoin. And there's been another upcycle in some related crypto that, you know, all this stuff doesn't matter. We're just all following

this preplanned script. Now, I'm not saying that's true. Well, let's back and go. Why did we talk about DeepSeek? Or why did we talk about Evergrande? Do you guys remember? How about BYD? Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, Evergrande. DeepSeek is just part of the macro here, the world's second largest country that has nowhere near the innovation. They can't, their system doesn't support it. Why? They had to push back on cryptos, completely autocratic led more than Mao, Chairman Mao. And it's going to fall behind virtually guaranteed. You want someone to blame, but I'm going to follow up a little bit. I used to agree with you about Bitcoin until what I saw happen this year. And now this is massive

access to supply, the massive hubris space, the valuations, and things like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu can drop the zero off the valuation and still be expensive. I want to tilt over to one key measure right now, $65 trillion. That's the market cap of the US. And I look at that, it's the most ever versus the rest of the world. The U.S. is about almost 70% of total market cap. We're about 20% of global GDP and only 5% in the population. When Mr. Trump says he's going to make things better, you just can't get much better than that. Maybe you get a little bit, and that's that 70, 60, 70% of market cap GDP. That's the number one thing that matters.

I want to tilt over to tariffs. I'm going to take the back. I I got to be a contrarian here. One thing about tariffs is profits. Why not so much tariffs is the US offshoring and importing from other countries. I mean, remember, I'm the only one here, I think, from the Rust Belt. We call it the Rust Belt for a reason. I've seen it happen. And I remember the rules of the 90s in the Clinton administration, oh, free trade is great for everyone. It's not. We've proved that, that when you're the world's largest demand pool economy and you have the world's military, keep the world safe and the currency, everybody else is going to take advantage. There's no such thing as free trade. The key thing I'll point out is one thing the tariffs will do and Trump will do it.

If he doesn't, he'll go back in history as President Weenie, which he won't do, is earnings. They will hurt corporate earnings. That's the bottom line. Because why did we import so much and offshore and move a lot of my friends and family and relatives and ruin their jobs and move on over to Mexico and China was for the money, the profits. That's what's going to happen. I don't think, I think he's starting to realize it and the market's going to pick up on it.

So to me, that's the first iteration. Let's get through that corporate profit backup, a little bit of a correction. Maybe it's done. Maybe we're going to be fine. It'll just be another minor dip and we buy into it. Everything is fine because of all this innovation regulation. But that stuff takes years. It takes acts of Congress.

It takes a lot of time to work in. And things like reducing taxes and stuff, you're going to have to battle in the Congress for those. It's going to be a while. So in the meantime, in terms of markets, like I said, I see deflationary forces from commodities with the exception of gold. If Bitcoin drops down, that's a severe deflationary force because what's lifted up everything because it would push back in a Trump administration. That's to me why this used to be a market that used to be number go up technology. Now I look at it, it's the price has to go higher or else

in terms of cryptos. And that's just too much risk. I think we have a situation now, Mike, I would argue where we have a larger bifurcation than ever between Bitcoin and everything else in crypto. I'm definitely sympathetic to the, we have millions of coins launching a day argument, but I don't think outside of maybe Trump token that any of that money is coming out of Bitcoin. I think that if you look at the total market cap and the market cap of Bitcoin, that it's all coming out of other altcoins, which are cannibalizing themselves in this sort of washing machine casino that's happening over there. Right. I mean, Trump token at one point was what, 70 billion market cap at the peak, 75, something like that that and the total altcoin market cap did not rise and other

altcoins were down 15 20 30 while that was happening and bitcoin was sort of fine i think this institutional money that's coming into bitcoin maybe some of it will find ethereum spot etfs or xrp or solana as it goes but i would say the bulk of that is just ramping up, is in its own market. And those people have zero interest in Farcoin. So they do, but other people do. And the facts are, and Dave will push back this, that when the correlation to the stock market debate is very high, the highest ever on a 100-day basis, yet Bitcoin has a much higher correlation to all these altcoins than it does the stock market. So, yes, maybe short term we'll get that divergence continue. The Bitcoin dominance continues. That would be great. But in the meantime, I think it's just, I've just never seen a space with massive competition, massive excess supply. This is the first one. Yes,

then it has 10 million other wannabes that can just make it and do fine. I just kind of, I'm just concerned now. And also it's the humory of the people who are blushing along. It's just, they're just too, they're too bold. I agree with the sentiment. I just don't see them as wannabes. I see them as just these gratuitous cash grabs happening over in the casino while, you know, the gold is in the vault down the road.

I just view them as totally different at this point. Yeah, let me respond to it because since you invoked my name, I do not believe Bitcoin is uncorrelated to altcoins. OK, let's be really clear. What I believe is in the way that the market cycles are going, it's all about liquidity. It's all about money. And so what happens is when Bitcoin rallies, altcoins go up. Why? Because people in crypto who have leverage say, okay, I now have more collateral. I can buy altcoins. And when Bitcoin goes down, their collateral goes down and they therefore

have to sell altcoins and it creates liquidations. And that's what you see. It is a dynamic of a market. It's not a closed system, but it's not that open. That's within crypto. Now, at the same time, there are exogenous forces, people outside crypto in the far larger is crypto is a puddle where compared to the ocean of the world financial markets and the world financial markets are all whether it's Larry Fink telling people at Davos that Bitcoin is going to 700000. By the way, that's kind of an important thing. And these people believe there are more and more believers in the ocean of the world financial markets that are accumulating Bitcoin. Now, these people are not stupid. You know, people in crypto don't understand just how dumb trading in crypto is. I mean, I founded a company, you know, CoinRouse, right? You know, and, you know, my son is running this company. And we help people buy and sell crypto spot cheaper than the institutional size orders,

multi-million dollar orders, cheaper than people buy equities. Why? Because of so many stupid traders and cryptos that our algorithms dramatically outperform the buy button and the sell button that people are trading in crypto. I don't care if it's derivatives or if it's spot. Algorithms will outperform and they will outperform more in crypto. Why? Because there are a lot of people who are dumb and they just puke stuff up when they're selling. And when they buy, they just say they want to buy. But the institutional buyers in Bitcoin are going to be patient and they know

they've already learned. Their FAs and the RIAs are saying, well, wait a minute. This thing is volatile. Be a little bit patient. Average in, and you'll do better. And so what you're seeing is smart buying and stupid selling every time you get one of these dips. And then when you see it get ahead of itself, it's like clockwork. I was looking, you know, even from the plane coming back from Colorado.

I think it hit 107 this weekend, didn't it, Scott? Yeah, close. And I'm like, I'm like this thing, you got to fade this if you're trading it. So traders are like looking at this market like 105. Yeah, 105. The traders look at the Bitcoin market like Homer Simpson looks like a pork chops and say, OK, great. I can take advantage of these idiots who are piling in at the top. And so you can't ignore that dynamic when you understand what's going on. That's why I always

say to do a zoom out lens doesn't mean that I'm also thinking about how to trade it. But Bitcoin is still a play on monetary policy, and it is still one fifth or one tenth valued if you believe that Bitcoin has reached escape velocity to become digital gold, which, you know, I love the narrative that people are now talking about. It was, I forgot who tweeted it, that said, if Bitcoin only becomes digital gold, it will have failed, which I think is funny. I think it's actually partially true in a sense. That was Jack Dorsey. That was Jack Dorsey who tweeted that. Right. So he's not crazy. And, you. And that's kind of what's going on.

So anyway, to sum up, my point is Bitcoin is going to react to liquidity and it's going to react to the inexorable force of people realizing that they need to opt out of this fiat bullshit. And until that happens, and we are a long way from that, you're not going to get any pushback from government, from any government now. Not what you've seen here, not with the Trump administration. And I doubt you're not going to get any pushback from government, from any government now. Not what you've seen here, you know, not with the Trump administration. And I doubt you're going to see that anywhere else that that's going to matter. So that's thing one.

Thing two is crypto is right now very, very, very, very, very autocorrelated to itself. And Mike is right about that. It is absolutely autocorrelated. And people don't know what to buy and sell. The big thing that's going to happen and news over the last week from what I saw snippets tell me that it's a certainty by the end of the year is you're going to have crypto ETFs. I don't mean Bitcoin ETF, Solana ETF or XRP ETF. I mean, you're going to see a layer one ETF. You're going to see your index. You're going to see actual index products that people can invest in. Now, do I think the meme

coin ETF that is inevitably going to happen is going to be popular? I don't know. I tend to think not. Imagine having to rebalance that. Yeah, but understand that this market is getting to the point where people are going to be able to trade this crap through their brokerage account. And that is just not priced in, in any way. And I'm not sure what will happen. I'm curious what you think, Noel, because it's a certainty that that's going to be the case.

Yeah, it's definitely not priced in, not just in the United States. We haven't even really begun to see the impact of the recent spate of executive orders and the regulatory clarity that's coming through. And that main impact is institutional grade services. I mean, sure, we have some, but we haven't yet got the big name banks offering crypto custody. That's probably going to come any day now. And that gives not just protection to crypto, it gives comfort to the really big investors who have not yet seen it an asset class worthy of their time. That's in the US, the world's largest financial market. That's very important. That's not priced

in. We're not taking into account the change we're seeing around the world. We're seeing, as you mentioned, a scramble at the global level to catch up with the US. Many jurisdictions, such as the European Union, were taking their time because they figured the US was far away from offering some institutional regulatory support to this. Well, they were wrong. Over Asia, just since the beginning of the year, we've seen announcements from Japan, from Thailand, from Malaysia, from Indonesia, from pretty much everywhere that have been looking at this over the years. They are now scrambling to approve ETFs. They're scrambling to approve tokenization services.

They're scrambling to approve regulatory clarity. And let's face it, crypto is a global asset. Unlike many of the other risk assets that people can trade, they are global. Bitcoin is exactly the same in Ankara as it is in Seattle. Last week had to be one of the craziest in the entire history of crypto for the news cycle. And I take for granted that on Monday, macro Monday, we haven't discussed a lot of what happened last week. I think you just brought up worth noting the biggest story of last week, which was not even the executive order. I think it was the SEC without executive

order, right? The SEC themselves canceling crypto accounting rule SAB 121. We've talked about it a lot here. I'm sure everybody at least is superficially aware, but that will allow the biggest banks and custodians in the world to custody Bitcoin, as you said, without counting it as a liability on their balance sheet, which will lead to the full suite of financial services

that we have on every other asset, like lending and yield and borrowing. And that's going to send, but like I i said that shouldn't matter for fart coin right that matters for bitcoin what what it matters for is i mean the biggest banks were always going to be able to offer it because counselor was giving them the sweetheart deals of come in kiss my ring and i'll let you do it uh but what this is is hester and Mark basically saying, listen, you know, if you are, if we're going to have one rule

and that's going to be it, and if you want to offer this stuff, offer this stuff. We're going to try to come up with a regulatory regime around it that will ensure people's safety. And it is irrespective of whether you donated millions

to your favorite political party or are friends of the SEC chair. And, you know, I know that sounds horrible. And that's because the Gensler administration, the Gensler-Warren administration was horrible. It was the ultimate club. And as much as people want to say, the amount of people, it's funny, the amount of people lately that are willing to say, oh, my God, we dodged a bullet with this election. When you have Stephen A. Smith saying he was a fool for voting for Kamala, when he sees what with a rot that's starting to come out.

I mean, there is a lot of stuff here that people don't realize how bad it is. I mean, you know, Nick Carter has done an amazing job, you know, helping to expose choke point. But when these hearings get started, you're going to see some unbelievable crap. Like I saw this weekend redacted, there are people at the FDIC who covered up what they were doing in a way that makes the Watergate break in and cover up. They changed the entire website. Did you see that? You can look at it from a year ago and you can look at it now and they just pretended it never happened. What they viewed as high risk. Yeah. It makes it almost inconceivable that crypto, that anybody in the United States is left. And by the way, it wasn't just crypto. They also were debanking

gun shops and gun owners and businesses and debanking legal marijuana places and debanking anything that they found that they didn't want. And so, you know, that kind of force applied against an industry, when it relaxes, it's not going to be zero. You're not going to have, oh, okay, it's okay. No, this is good. There will be an equal and opposite reaction. It's physics. And that equal and opposite reaction has not happened yet. Now, that doesn't mean by fart coin, okay? It doesn't mean by Trump coin either. It doesn't mean by meme coins. It means if you are a founder and you believe that there's value being created in an asset, then buy it because there's going to be possibilities. And that's why index funds are going to get very, very popular this year. And you're going to see them. So let me let me piggyback on that. A lot we agree with.

The reason we and it was on my first idea, I launched Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index in 2018, 4 was exactly that purpose. The benefit about an index is it has a survivor bias. I mean, there's obviously 10 million cryptos, but if it just tracks the top 20 or 10 that do well, it survives over time. I think that's a good way to track cryptos to be long in the market long term. But the key thing I have to push back on is when you make statements of facts based on your perception of the future that do not fit with the past of non-income producing risk assets, which this is. These are non-producing risk assets, just like gold and ETFs. Gold's total market holding in terms of ETFs is 220 billion. It's been stuck there for a couple years. We've had outflow for four years, particularly because Bitcoin's had such consignificant inflows. Right now, we have Bitcoin ETF holdings around $140 billion. It's much more

volatile. It has no income. And the things I've learned in my lesson in commodities is every FA in the planet said, yeah, great. Where's the income? Where's the returns? Now, you're telling me otherwise. I want to see the beef. And then they'll go do their due diligence. So we've only, and then they'll go do their due diligence. So we've had 2022, the S&P 500 was down 9%. Bitcoin was down 64%. 2018, S&P 500 was down 6%. Bitcoin was down 73%. They'll do their due diligence and say, yeah, it's great. What's in this portfolio is to our portfolios of risk assets.

We're just adding risk, a lot of risk. It's positively, highly positively correlated history of to the beta S&P 500. Just the fact, just want to point that out. Those are two key facts. When people tell me the opposite, who are trying to sell products, I say, sorry, but I've learned that lesson in commodities is most people say at the RIAs and say, yeah, I want that income I can get from something like a XLE in terms of energy or in terms of gold or anything in that space. And I don't want to hear Noel, but there are two very quick points. Point one, indexes in crypto, not Bitcoin, are going to be those tokens, those assets are going to rise or fall based on people's perceived ability for them to,

based on their TVL or based on the income generation that will cause supply burning or whatever. Whatever the mechanism is, if you can give, if those assets do return value to the shareholders, it's the joke with Solana, do you want to own the casino or do you want to put that at the table? But that has nothing to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a separate thing. Bitcoin is an option.

Bitcoin is an option with an asymmetric positive return. And, you know, my brother's an F.A. You know, you know, he's a financial advisor. And, you know, I talked about him a year ago and now he has clients calling up saying, listen, you know, what should I put in my portfolio in here in this positive option? And the positive option means that when you look at things like when you look only at the down years, you know, that's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is to zoom out you look at things like, when you look only at the down years, that's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is to zoom out and look at the correlation of Bitcoin to the stock market over the last 15 years

and you get a very different answer. And so we've talked about this ad nauseum. And Noel, what do you think about that? Really quickly also before Noel jumps in, I should note that all of these index funds that are coming or many of them, A, will have staking because Perse has made it clear that Ethereum will have staking. So there will be yield associated. And we are 1,000%

going to see them blended with stable coins earning yield to make sure that there's some underlying mechanism there and hedge. The way that we're seeing yield on USDC and USDT and all these things being created in DeFi and beyond are going to be part of these index products. So you're going to see blended things, 70% Bitcoin with a 30% USDC earning yield, things like that. And that's even before we get into Bitcoin yield, which we are going to see some big moves on this year. And who knows if that ends up getting wrapped in traditional wrappers. But I'd like, if it's okay, since we haven't got that much time left, to take a step back and ask what you all think about the timing of the move. I mean, the deep seek R1 came out on Monday. So why did we have to wait until this weekend for things to throw a total squiffy? My

working theory is that it's not just deep seek that people are freaking out about. Sure, it's relevant, especially given the concentration, as we've talked about. But Colombia is not totally insignificant in the shift in mood either. The spat between Donald Trump and President Petro of Colombia over the weekend where he threatened to slap 25 percent tariffs because he was pissed off that Colombia wasn't going to allow the planes to land. And then it worked. Colombia walked it back pretty fast. That adds to the uncertainty. And this ties in a little bit with what Mike has been hinting at, that Bitcoin is a safe haven asset as well as a risk asset. And arguably going forward with this kind of degree of uncertainty, not just on the

effect of tariffs, but also on currencies, the demand for a liquid hedge against the uncertainty is going to be increasingly important. And in the theses that we are going to see emerging from not just the retail investors, but especially institutional investors around the world. Many people were overlooking the fact that Colombia's largest export to the United States is oil. Noelle, I also, because you brought that up, you sent an article that sort of relates, right? Which is obviously here, energy's holy grail may soon be reality. A global race is on to produce cheap, virtually unlimited and environmentally friendly energy via nuclear fusion. China's at the forefront. I mean, they literally created, as you can see,

something on earth reached a temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius, seven times hotter than the sun and lasted for 18 minutes. This also just happened during that time. Mike, this has to be on your radar. Noel, obviously you sent this. Noel first unpacked this, but then Mike, your thoughts. I mean, what this does to energy. It's a matter of time. I look at my 2014 Chevy Volt. It's a plug-in hybrid. It's 11 years old now. I can get that same vehicle, twice as good, much better vehicle at half the cost. So it has three to four times the range in China now from BYD. That's why the US and the Germans and the Europeans have to have 100% tariffs on these vehicles. Why is Germany heading towards recession?

Why is Volkswagen and Mercedes and all these internal combustion producers getting hammered? The technology is shifting rapidly. Bitcoin is a big part of that. The difference is Bitcoin is in cryptos are currencies, are highly speculative digital assets. And that's the way i look at is i bottom line simplistically is i think the whole space in cryptos will be fine as long as the u.s stock market keeps going up and that's the problem maybe it's going to just have a couple years or

it's not make a record high you know stuff that used to happen and this is what we're at that stage now it's complete no known everybody in the even children, get how expensive the U.S. stock market is. It's just how long can it stay here? Can our new saviors keep it expensive? It's already expensive. So that's why I look at it. Just expect more and more deflation, significant deflation from China. Jeff Booth predicted it.

But what does that mean for highly expected digital assets and valuations that are just silly? Okay. People tell me it's great for Bitcoin. I agree. But I've just never seen the whole space go down with Bitcoin going up. I've never seen the stock market stay down with Bitcoin going up. And Dave, you're right. It's outperformed for its only 15 years around.

But remember, it was born of massive money pumping and financial crisis. The best way to really look at Bitcoin is since futures started in 2017, I think. Because that's when it brought in the ability to hedge and brought in the real hedge funds who really run the hot money, which I see in commodities are just very bearish. Nice $5,000 bounce this morning on Bitcoin. Now we're back to $100,000.

Yeah, exactly. I'm going to disagree with Mike, respectfully disagree with Mike on two things there. One, Bitcoin is not pure speculation. It is also a technology. Bitcoin is a token that represents a new technology. It is a technology that is accessible to invest in for anyone, anywhere in the world, unlike most new technologies, which are limited to the wealthy accredited investors. Bitcoin is a new technology.

And I know many investors personally who are investing in it on that basis alone and I raised my hand in that group as well. And two, the assumption that China is always going to lose when it comes to technological innovation. That's why I shared this article on energy. Up until now, the longest anyone was able to get that nuclear fusion was six seconds and China managed it for 18. And the technology is not necessarily worse. We don't hear about it in the Western media because of prejudice, because of bias, because of the assumption based on ancient history that China is cheap and therefore low quality. I also subscribe to the South China Morning Post, which regularly has on its top headline major achievements from the science from Chinese scientists largely because one they actually do have funding and two

they don't have the red tape that their counterparts and western economies have and sure maybe part of that is exaggerated as we can probably see in the op-ed that I shared earlier but not all of it the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. We can't be lazy and assume that China is not going to change the way we see technology. We saw this with artificial intelligence, assuming deep seek is real. And I think we're going to see this in energy as well. I will agree with Mike. And I say this grudgingly because I used to disagree with Mike on this, but I'm not coming around to his view that, yes, this is going to be deflationary? Well, deflationary for consumer prices, yes. I think that people, you know, you can't, if you have a major disruption that are affecting jobs, any real politic president who understands, I mean, you have literally Elon Musk sitting next to Trump in the Oval Office talking about this stuff.

And if you think he isn't telling him, listen, you know, we need to unleash American innovation. And we need to allow merit-based immigration as fast as we possibly can to get more of these top people in here and see the ones who don't want to be in a tyrannical regime. I think you're crazy. I mean, you know, they see this stuff. I mean, the Columbia thing is exactly the point. I mean, the gall of the Colombian president not taking back their own citizens that they dumped on us was ridiculous. And under Biden, they would have been okay, fine, whatever, you know, they wouldn't have done anything. Trump was like, no. And who won? And if you think that the world doesn't understand that, that, you know, he doesn't give a shit. Right. About what people think he's going to do what he thinks is right. And for America and frankly, as an American, I'm happy as hell that he did it. I mean, I saw this story and I saw, oh, that's not going to play well. And I'm watching it. And then it didn't play well.

And then finally, they offered to use their own presidential jet to take back people and said, okay, fine. Because at the end of the day, the things that matter to this administration are going to happen. They're going to do whatever they can. And one of those things they want to have happen is America to lead in technology and not be hamstrung by Elizabeth Warren's, you know, Senator Karen's stuff saying, okay, you can't do this because we need to protect people from what you're doing. You know, the ethos, if you put David Sachs in the White House, what you're basically saying is the ethos of move fast and break things is now going to be American, you know, what would define American exceptionalism. And people who studied history know that that's exactly what happened, right? Look at the industrial revolution. Look

at the history of why the U.S. is half, literally half the world's investable assets are here, despite being 4% of the population. It's because we used to have an ethos of move fast and break things. And that's coming back. And to ignore that, yes, I guess in a sense that's deflationary for consumer products, yes, but it's not deflationary for in terms of money supply. And the dollar is still going to be the denominator. And that's why we have these differences. So we can unpack this as much. I know, Scott, you want to talk about microstrategy also today, which is another. I do. Well, it's funny because, you know, we talk about the strategic Bitcoin reserve and what might be coming. I mean, maybe Michael Saylor is just

the strategic Bitcoin reserve at this point. I have no idea. They bought another billion dollar, 10,000 Bitcoin, a billion dollars, 105,000 cost basis. Let me bring it up. Right. And they're now announcing another unique strategy for creating more stock, raising more money, buying more Bitcoin. For anybody who didn't see this, I know that we need to unpack it, but pretty astounding what MicroStrategy is doing right now. But I want to link that into another thing is Mike, Noel, I think both of you said kind of Bitcoin 70,000, 75,000. People keep mentioning it. That number I've now seen five times this weekend. A lot of people predicting that's going to happen. Arthur Hayes, I love his work. Not sure he's ever been right, and I'm interviewing him tomorrow, but he gets these hyperbolic predictions. Double top to $75,000.

Link that to MicroStrategy. I don't know what his cost basis is. It's probably here, $64,000. I mean, if we see Bitcoin at $70,000, we have a major narrative shift if we're within 10% of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy's average price, cost basis. I mean, Noelle, what do you think of that? I haven't crunched the numbers on MicroStrategy, I confess, but the sinking feeling, the instinctive feeling that I'm sure is shared by many is that this could be a risk should he need to unwind for whatever reason. However, given the structure and given the intelligent financial engineering he has behind it,

I suspect it's a lot lower than 75. That may be where his last purchases were, but let's face it, if he's going to be averaging, which he can, then it's a lot lower, and Bitcoin would really need to tank for it to be a danger. So while the fear could accelerate any downtrend, I don't think it's a real danger just yet. To be clear, I'm not saying he gets liquidated. Those were nonsense narratives in the past. I'm just saying that the public perception

of what MicroStrategy is doing, how it relates to Bitcoin, the asset in general, if he's not in a massive profit, becomes very different. So let's follow up on that a little bit. It's easy to say, hard to do. From a leveraged hot money standpoint, microstrategy is an ideal thing to buy when it's at somewhat of a discount to Bitcoin. Now it's at extreme premium. And he's adding supply to his base of equities and buying Bitcoin. So to me, that register me as someone who's got the ability to do it as hot money. I'll sell a little microstrategy and buy a little Bitcoin because MicroStrategy is just very expensive now. And he's increasing his float. I mean, just look at the fundamentals here.

Sure, he's buying Bitcoin, but that peak we put in MicroStrategy back in, it was really high in November. That's, you know, it's versus Bitcoin. Just look at Bitcoin to the Bitcoin ratio. It's very, you know, very dicey. To me, this is an ideal spec. But now the problem is it's very dicey. To me, this is an ideal spec. But now the problem is, it's just too expensive. That's what I hear from people who have accounts with Vanguard and they can't buy anything with cryptos, which is still silly. They want to buy MicroStatic. I'm like, oh, please, be careful with that one because you're buying it. It was like buying GBTC when it was up 20% above Bitcoin. When it dropped to that discount, that was the time to buy. That's the key thing

to be careful about here. And then we also where those lessons in life has never put all your assets in one uh your risk in one asset well he's doing that and thinking and saying it's the right thing to do and people say it's the right thing to do i'm like good luck but i this bottom line i have to point out is this is this macro thing theme of we are just one morning a little bit of a backup in the stock market this This is nothing. This is what we have to get through. We have to have this asset that everybody says so great. I used to agree it was so great until it got too expensive.

I just think it's too expensive. Proves that it's just not leveraged beta, not just the asset, the whole space. And that's why I tilt over the number one trade of crypto is Tether. And then there's all the other US dollar crypto dollars. I still completely believe in the technology, but we did have a lot of history of new technologies

pumping up asset prices really high and then dumping. But the technology is overwhelming, which is what's happened with the internet. Can I share my screen for a second? Just to, because I love to, let's get this one. Dave, I also just wanted to mention as you're doing that, that of course, which is something you're, maybe you're about to point out,

but the minute we were down at 97, funding rates went negative. Right, of course. And we bounced $65,000. I'm going to say two things before I look at this chart. First, nothing makes me more bullish than hearing everyone calling Bitcoin to drop, you know, 30%.

That makes me incredibly bullish, and nothing makes me more bearish when everyone says it's going to 250,000 like me. I prefer to be contrarian. When I'm not contrarian, I get nervous. It doesn't mean it's wrong in either case, but I'm happy about that. Now, Mike basically made a statement.

He said, well, it's too expensive to go to NAB. Well, that's the orange line. If you're a chartist and you see down here and you know it's gone to up here before, I mean, yeah, you know, maybe you don't want to catch a falling knife, you know, if it's on the value trap, but this is not expensive.

In fact, by eyeballing it, it's toward the bottom of the range of its NAV. And now he's doing it in preferred structure, so it's not to be selling common shares. So honestly, you know, right now in terms of MicroStrategy versus Bitcoin, if you think Bitcoin is going to have a major rally, it's a really good point of entry as opposed to a bad point of entry. So just to say, and, you know, it depends on what you think. I'm not saying go buy MicroStrategy and mortgage your house to do so. That would be insane.

What I'm saying is if you want a little bit of leverage, well, there are people who do that shit. So, you know, you have to make these things. I don't want to lead anyone down the road. Saylor told people to do that for Bitcoin last cycle, by the way. Well, I mean, look, you could make an argument that if you think something's going to go up 5x, your house is going to go up. If a house goes up 2x, like my house in New Jersey, over 18 years is basically doubled,

which is not really that great if you think about it. You know, if you make an argument that says you should rent and use your capital to buy something that's going to go up more, I mean, you can make that argument. Personally, I think people should be prudent

with their finances and have enough liquidity to live for a couple of years and make sure that they're not taking a risk that they're out on the street. But that's a different story. But this chart basically makes you look at the orange line. It's like MicroStrategy is still happily in its normal range. Yes, we had that blow off when Bitcoin was going up.

But ask yourself what's going to happen if Bitcoin does go on a big rally and breaks out of the range. And, you know, that's all I'm trying to say there's nothing yeah it's done it in the past and it could do it in the future but now is not anything particularly horrible my point dave is you're looking at just from a more of an outsider now because bitcoin i'm sorry bloomberg has asked me to and i'm telling you abby the podcast I've been listening to and watching for a decade, well, not a decade, about half a decade now, the extreme bullishness is the most I've ever seen. Now, there's a few people, like Scott pointed out, it's the most I've ever seen. And that just brings up my contrarian bent.

I have to admit it. Curse of being a contrarian. It's helped me do great in 2008 and 2000. But yeah, just the curse of contrarian. When everybody's bullish, which I sense is now the extreme bullishness, most notably our president. Then you have to just find alternatives. That's I'm not that complicated about it. It's only getting more interesting. That's all I can say. I can't wait to just keep talking about this every Monday. I mean, it's crazy. Like I said, that the news cycle was so insane last week that we didn't even talk about the executive order or

any of the other Trump things today because we had so much to talk about with just China and Bitcoin price action and predictions. It's really like we're living in a simulation, I think. And I think deep, deep seek in the rest are only going to increase that feeling as we go. Noel, we absolutely love to have you. I wish we could go for longer. It's 10.03 here. For those who are interested, I do obviously host Crypto Town Hall Twitter spaces at 10.15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. And today we have Roger Veer joining. And this could theoretically be his last day of freedom. And he is obviously pleading to the White House for a pardon. No longer technically a United States citizen. So there's a lot of nuance there, but many viewing him sort of as the person

who's taking yet another major target on behalf of the entire crypto industry like Charlie Shrem was in the past, or even John McAfee. And so the tax evasion charges for him, very, very interesting and something worth discussing. So I would say maybe check that out if that's interesting to you.

Dave, you look like you have something to say. No, I just happen to that out if that's interesting to you. Dave, you look like you have something to say. No, I just happen to have a conflict this morning with another meeting. But if I get off that, I'm going to jump on because I'm definitely I'll listen to the tape for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Perfect. All right, Mike, Dave, Noel, it's been wonderful. Thank you to everybody. Sorry, we ran over time again. We're getting bad at that. But we appreciate all of you joining and listening. See you next Monday for Macro Monday. Thank you all. Good talking to you all. Thanks. Bye. Let's go. you you you you you you