The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Crashes Below $50K Amid Global Market Turmoil! Black Macro Monday.

Episode Date: August 5, 2024

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1  James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish  Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11  ►► IS THE BULL MARKET OVER? LEAVE YOUR ANSWER HERE! 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/B1zE3hB ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin dropped below $50,000 today in a broader crypto bloodbath, but also obviously related to what's happening in macro. Dollar getting absolutely slammed by the yen. We have turmoil in the Middle East. Basically everything you could have on your bingo card for a bad day on a Monday. We're going to be calling this a Black Monday. I have a feeling for years to come. These are the days that I'm really glad I have three incredible experts around me

to unpack what's happening. Mike McGloin, James Lavish, and Dave Weisberger. I have a feeling this is going to be an epic Macro Monday. Don't leave. Stay tuned in. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. Although there's not that much to like on a day like today. I'm going to bring out Mike, James, and Dave right now.

Gentlemen, there's a hurricane in the markets. There's also a literal hurricane at my house. So if I happen to disappear because of my internet or something, just keep talking and we'll sort it out. Dave's good at that. Yeah. Is anything going on, fellas? Yeah, guys.

Yeah, you know, it's probably worth starting. You know, Danish and I on crypto on on on crypto town hall on on Friday had this conversation and I explained that we together, a ton of tag team, explained the end carry trade. I think before Mike talks about things, people should understand what the end carry trade is and why it matters. And then Mike can put a lot of meat on the bones. But just for those in the audience who don't know what this is, because generally people think, oh, well, it's all liquidity. It's this, it's that. We've been talking about it for months.

Right. You and I have talked about it as well, James. I mean, look, the simple to refresher course is simple. Somewhere north of $20 trillion of value have been borrowed in yen to buy other stuff. And it's really easy to understand when you think about it that way. Now, what that other stuff is, is where it gets interesting. It started back in the days when I didn't have gray in my beard. By borrowing yen. Mine went gray this morning.

Basically, for Japanese people to reach for yield because the yield, they've been at zero interest rates for a very, very long time to buy higher yielding stuff. And then hedge funds figured out, well, I could do that if I have a billion dollars in, you know, I can borrow 10 billion or 20 billion and lever it up and buy and get, make, you know, N number of basis points by buying higher yielding stuff, eventually buying the US bonds and stuff, which which was three or 4%. You lever that 10

times, all of a sudden, that's 30% annual returns, that's pretty good. When you're getting paid a 20% fee on your returns for taking that risk. The only problem with that trade, the real risk is what happens, not if the currency moves, because you can hedge small moves, whatever, if there's a sharp, sudden move. And a sharp, sudden move means you lose all of that move before you can do anything. And so if you're unhedged on your yen, that's the problem. So I just want to, under background, now the last thing I'll say before we stop is at this point, because we asked and we were talking to a lot of people last week, what kind of stuff did people buy with the yen and how much of it is?

And what we saw this weekend was, and what we see now, is basically everything. There are probably people who borrowed yen to buy gold. Silver, silver's down 6% today. You want to explain that one? It's the same thing. So, okay. That's my point. So now everyone knows the context. Have fun, Mike. Yeah. The carry trade seems to be the story of the day if you're listening to the pundits in the news. But I have a feeling Mike will tell us it's a hell of a lot more than that. That's right.

I think Dave nailed it. I mean, it's one thing thing you get the macro so well and you teach us all. I learn a lot from you. And this is just a classic unwind of and it's global, it's macro, it's everywhere. And Bitcoin's the best leading indicator. So I have to admit, I watched it way too much this week and I came in the office and I kept saying, OK, if it breaks below 60, that's your indication. Why 60 significant Bitcoin? Not only is it the 200-day moving average, it's also about the average price since ETFs were launched. So now all that money,

all those massive, the biggest ETF launch in history, which looked very suspicious, is now underwater on an average basis. And so I just look at it as a leading indicator. And the problem is, and I love you get this lesson from the anchors when they come in and say Bitcoin's down 5% or 15%, which is actually down 20%, because they measured on a one-day basis. It trades on the weekend. It's the only thing you could sell this weekend when you saw the world's going to hell in a handbasket. At least it's just normal version.

So that's what's happening now. At some point, that's going to stall and stabilize. But you sell what you can, not what you want. And that's clearly showing up commodity. This is a sell what you can market. Why is crude only down 1%? And you mentioned silver's down almost 6% and gold's down 2% because hedge funds are way long silver and gold, and they're sold out of crude oil a couple months ago. So there's not a lot to sell

there. And of course, we have geopolitical risks. So to me, this is just about a massive unwind. And the question is how far it goes and how long it lasts. I had to go back and revisit some of the things I started writing two years ago. Hand up, if I was trading, I probably would have been stopped out writing about things like reset and crude oil going to 50 after it went to 130. But now it's all tilting that way. So from our morning meeting, Ira Jersey pointed out, we've had an inverted curve for two years. People forgot what matters. And now we're all tilting towards that recession that didn't happen. Yes, there's climbing for the Fed knees, but there you go. You saw that inverted yield curve. It was normalized for about 10 minutes earlier, but hasn't closed there. But it was above that red for the first time in two years. So we're going to, let's tilt. I'll end

with one thing I enjoyed reading is, I got sick of hearing all the narratives. Some people still saying buy the dip. And I say, yeah, sell the rips. This is just wait till you can see the white of the eyes. This is a hundred year event kicking in. So I listened to part of market wizards, unknown market wizards. I used to be in a trading business when the first one was coming out. And I remember one key person they featured. You guys probably know him, Marty Schwartz. He was a customer. I was at a firm. I had just started in trading pits in 1988. He kept trying to buy bonds. He was early. And I remember getting yelled at him because I wasn't executing properly. I was a kid. Still am a kid, I hope. But what I want to give telling the story, because what happened is he kept trading for that long bond to drop in yield. He was it was around nine percent. He kept buying T-bonds and it didn't. He got stopped out. Finally, he got back in. But it's what you do in leverage. I come from leverage. You get stopped out and you go in. By the end of 2089, it was about seven point eight percent.

So he made a killing. But you had to get hit first. To me, that's what happened in T-bonds. The biggest case ever seen people bought into a lien and stopped. Now everything's starting to tilt towards, I think, what really makes sense, the inflation we got reverting to deflation. That's everything I see from commodities. And you have to hope what stops it. And at this stage, I think, sure, the Fed's going to ease, but every single time they ease, the market will bounce. I think that'll be your opportunities to be more tactical. And this is a tremendous environment for those who are more tactically orientated. Hey, Mike, I saw Jeremy Siegel, obviously from my alma mater. I took his class at Penn calling today for 75-bit rate cut.

This is the nonsensical panic that would cause exactly the chart that I've showed you guys so many, it feels like a million times at this point, which is Yelker uninverts, Fed pivots, stock market crashes. Can you imagine the lack of confidence in markets if they came out with a 0.75 emergency rate cut today? Please save us. jeremy single has been a permable i mean he's the biggest boulder is but i i remember um joseph paddy pagley and when in in 2000 in 2000 finally getting stopped out when that's when the nasdaq dropped 80 that's what's happening maybe we'll get lucky if you look at the nick it's just overdue so let's start with first the first bridge s&p 500 200 day moving average is 5,000.

All right, well, below that was resistance, now support. Let's get there first and see what happens. And every other market I see, we're below those levels. So this is what's changed is the whole psychology of human nature is the Fed will save us. But then you have to point out, remember, volatility in stock markets at the lowest level in almost two decades. And the market cap to GDP is the highest it was on the way up since 1929. At just some point, you have to get back and look out and get out of risk assets and focus on risk off assets. So I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy US treasury bonds when they have those dips. And to me, that's going to be the most

enduring trade for the next few years. To me, this is just getting started, but there'll be a lot of volatility in this trade. So you're telling me my TLT buys at 84 that I've held through all of this are going to look pretty good. Well, this is what happens in treasuries. My lesson is most treasuries, it's the most leveraged market on the planet, which is what I learned when long-term capital management blew up in 98. Some of us actually did pretty well in that trade. I was just buying out of the money calls and yeardows because they were going up for no reason. Like, okay, well, this means something's going on. That's the kind of signals we're getting now is this is just a bit of an unwind. Now, hopefully in the short term, we're always going to have those periods of calm

and it's okay. It's over. You bought the dip. Everything is fine. But to me, this is when you get an inverted curve, the longest inverted for two years on the back of the biggest money pump in history, you have to expense some reversion. Some of us, it was early. We're now starting to tilt back that way. I think it's important when we keep talking about curve and uninverted and whatever, it's really important to distinguish. We're talking about two to 10, zero to two is still ridiculous. So, and, and so it's, it's, it's important to understand what we're saying. Yeah, but the, the, the long-term, the long-term indicator, the benchmark for, for watching for a recession is the two to 10 inversion.

The two and 10 has been inverted from for two years and it's just un-inverted for the first time, which is, I'm not underestimating. Right, exactly. But generally, what you would expect a normal yield curve to look like is people pay more for risk out on the curve. You know, people pay, the government has to pay, attract a higher yield. Weirdly, with the carry trade being the cause, it's a very strange scenario. Now, the reason I say it's a

strange scenario is because the original thought process was that people were buying U.S., that Japanese big mound of U.S. treasuries would be at risk, and those are 10 years. And that would actually cause yields to go up if those get sold. That did not happen, or very little bit happened relative to all the other assets. So it speaks volumes to what hedge funds have actually been doing and what the holders of those are. Meanwhile, the market, for those who don't understand it, is basically pricing in one and a quarter basis points actually fairly quickly, but over the next two years

is what the market... I was just on spaces and there was a bond expert saying that bond market was telling us, and I was sort of superficially listening while prepping it. It was basically saying nine cuts by 2025, if you're looking at bonds. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think what Dave just described is described as one and a quarter would be five cuts and that's pretty soon so um i mean look let's let's go back to i want to go back to the japanese unwind here and so i just shared something with you uh scott i don't know if you can you see it all right so this is this this right here is structurally what has been going on so if you look look at that blue line, that's the yen. And that white line is the difference in yield between the U.S. 10-year and the Japanese government bond 10-year, the JGB 10-year.

You can see that just about a month, month and a half ago, just about a month ago, not even, it just really widened out, right? The spread between the two, which means that the yen was a lot weaker than the, than that spread and the spread was coming in. So that had to, it had to revert. You can see how it tracks almost, you know, perfectly and it had to revert. And so what we're seeing is this trade is being unwound. The funny thing is, and not really funny, and the powerful thing is, and why you saw the Nikkei down 12% last night, is it feeds on itself. selling, as you are covering your JGBs, you're causing that yield to go lower, which causes that spread to go wider again, which causes the need for the yen to go to be stronger, which causes the need for you to go and sell more risk assets overseas, bring those US dollars or euros or whatever over, convert them to yen, and it just feeds on itself.

And this is what's been happening. And I've heard the same report, Dave, and I haven't seen the numbers laid out specifically, but I've heard the same report that this is about a $20 trillion book across all the investment firms and that this is the problem. And so then to Mike's point is why was, why was Bitcoin getting hit over the weekend? What's the only thing it's trading. It's the only thing that was trading. And so if you're going to take something off your book, you're going to start there. You can start over on a Saturday afternoon, on a Sunday afternoon, you can start selling it. And so that has been going on, but that's why this has been so powerful, this move. And then the second thing is something we haven't seen in a while, which is really interesting

is look at this chart. When you look at the VIX, we haven't seen a move like this. You have to share your screen again. Sorry. I'm going to share it right now. If you, if you haven't, you, we haven't seen a move like this in a long time. It's insane. I mean, this tells you that what Mike was saying is we haven't had volatility.

We have volatility in the market this morning. Yeah, that we are back to volatility in the market. And so the issue here is for investors is, okay, you can't go buy protection now. Protection is too expensive so you have to actually take assets off the book and this is exactly why all assets correlate to one and which we're seeing this morning even gold is down this morning right so i mean it's not severe yet and i don't expect us to get a crash but we are going to see a sell-off here and we're opening what in 12 minutes.

What's that? Where are the futures, Mike? We'll just piggyback on that a little bit. You mentioned the VIX. So let me share screen as soon as you can grab that, Scott. This is one of the key things that got me really bearish, unfortunately, in 2006. And 2007 was a bad year for me, but 2008 was wonderful. I was a trader back then.

This is an indication, this line here is the VIX 52-week volatility index minus T-Bowl rate. It's just starting to turn up. Early days. I mean, this is the lowest since 2007. I overlay this with Bitcoin divided by S&P 500. This is going to go back to a mean, whoever knows where that is. It's just the crocodile jaws narrowing. That's how early days we are.

But Scott mentioned this earlier on the program. Let's look at Bitcoin versus gold. This is one of my favorite charts for Bitcoin versus gold. It's the one I've been showing for a while. It brought me back to things I used to make a lot of money in the trading pits, and that is trading more gaps and things. So it's reverting lower. It was showing the virgin weakness. It's trading 21.

Maybe it goes back down to 15 where it was before the breakout. Not a big deal in the long-term narrative of Bitcoin. But the key thing I want to show you is this is the S&P 500 E-mini. It had, on a weekly basis, on a continuous chart, started since 1997. I used to trade this a lot. We've never left a weekly gap gap for this long it filled the gap from here it still has that gap back down from the end of last year this signals that were just so profound they're kicking in what stops it again so i don't

know but in the meantime yes we should expect gold to sell off there's a lot of leverage longs in there copper still a lot of longs there but But gold's the one more likely to recover. And this, where do we come out from here? How do you trade it? And I look at it as this, to me, is the beginning of a normal recessionary reset. And it means that at some point, Bitcoin will be the outperformer. But for now, it's a high volatility speculative risk asset. And that's what the market's treating it as.

Yeah. And Dave, I was trying to remember, you guys made the bet earlier in the year. I think it was maybe February or March. We'll talk in March. Bitcoin versus gold. We'll talk in March. We'll talk in March. I just want to remind that now- No, no, I understand. I understand. Just like, you know, I thought that Bitcoin would languish this summer. And I did not obviously think that we were going to have, like, you know, it's I thought that Bitcoin would languish this summer. And I did not obviously think that we were going to have. No, but I talked about it. Look, last weekend, this past weekend, someone asked me a question.

So I'm glad that we have the Internet never forgets. The Internet never forgets. I tweeted. I got to find it again. I had it out here where notifications. Someone asked me about the jump trading when when Bitcoin had gone down to 56. And my answer was was pretty straightforward. I said, oh, Christ. Do you have any insight, by the way? Can you see jump trading? I mean, no, I have no I have no idea about it. But but I'm trying to find it because these things get- For those who don't know, while he's looking for this, Jump Trading, obviously one of the biggest market makers and investors, everything in crypto, and they unstaked, I think, a huge amount of- What I wrote was, someone asked me if Jump Trading was trading, so I wrote, not a clue, but there were likely a lot of funds nervous about monday's market action fearing a crash friday felt like force selling across all risk assets

potentially from some hedge funds blowing up due to the end carry trade if that triggers a cascade dot dot dot meanwhile crypto markets are open while equities are shut there you go and so you know it's like that, that's the thing. And people, you know, ever, you don't understand the panic that's running around outside out there. I've been made, I've made the point innumerable times that the reason why I can be relatively, I don't care, right. About my portfolio is because I don't trade it and I have no frigging leverage. I mean, even as unlevered as this market was on relative basis, if you look, the last 24 hours was a spike to a billion dollars wiped out in leverage in the crypto market. Gone. Poof. And yeah, the people on the other side made money, but that billion dollars is gone. If you look

over the last, since February the when i'm just looking at the chart uh you're seeing there been one there was one day in february uh the pro you know bitcoin was at you know what was that what was it 63 000 and it went kaboom and it it was higher than this list this amount and there were two days in April when we had, you know, the long, you know, basically this amount we're at that amount you would expect. You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two days like this, and then it flushes. And then we go back into whatever trading range we're going to be in if global markets don't seize up. But here's the rub. What, you know, we can talk about, you know about risk assets and talk about pricing. In a world where

the monetary plumbing seizes up, all bets are off. That's what happened in 2008. We saw a couple signs of that this weekend. It's worth talking about. The Korean government stopping people from trying to stop people from selling. Stop-sell orders. First sign. Can't short-sell. That is panic on a global scale. It's like the Fed cutting it under today. That's a problem. People also need to understand it's not the price of money that's the issue

here. It's the availability of money. In other words, it's liquidity. It's not the price. People keep saying, oh, cut rates. Cutting rates actually is like throwing water on an oil fire. Not a really good idea. It's much worse. Because if the U.S. cuts rates, then that triggers that loop that James was describing. Now, of course, the yen has already corrected back down in the middle of its normal range.

And there's no real, you know, we were talking about watch the end, watch the end, watch the end on this show many times, because we knew the Japanese government, there's becomes a point where they can't afford it to depreciate more. Well, now they're perfectly happy in this range. They're not going to do anything else. Right. But it's the losses and what we never know. And what's the unknown unknown in this market is if you're, if you had the end carry trade on from two years ago, if you can put that chart back up there that james had if you look i i just want to get the dates right i'll uh i'll pull it back up so if you look at you know at the it's the sharpness of the move what what is it what does that mean that means new money or new leverage or increasing your leverage back

at these levels. If your average cost of your yen that you borrowed was when it was at 145 to the dollar, the move to 142 is painful, not that big of a deal. If on the other hand, your average cost because you topped up your leverage was at 160. Well, now your body might be floating to the top of the pool as it were, or the top of the, you know, it's that, that's, that's what the, the, the analogy that I used on Friday was it's a depth charge in the market. And what you don't know is, is how many hedge funds had re-established their leverage at a borrowing in at 160 or 158. And then at 142, at 20 times leverage or 15 times leverage, they're gone. I mean, which what are prime brokers going to do? Prime broker is going to say, you got to sell everything

and I want to get as much back as I can. Yeah. To that end, I just want to talk about jump crypto because we have a lot of narratives happening. I think the end carry trade, the big one for crypto specifically, a lot of people were talking about Jump Crypto, one of the biggest prop firms in the market. People might remember in June, there was a CFTC investigation announced into Jump. They had a lot to do with Terra Luna, reportedly, and they've moved $277 million worth of Ether in the past 10 days to exchanges. This is in line, obviously, with the Ethereum spot ETFs. The conjecture here, and we don't know, and even Arthur Hayes tweeting, where is it? My Trad5 birdies are telling me somebody big got smoked and is dumping all crypto. No idea if this is true. I won't name names. The idea here is that

either they're getting margin called in other markets and need to liquidate or there's something regulatory happening. But these guys are one of the biggest players in crypto and they're selling in line with one of the worst macro possible situations. Understand how market makers, market makers are, it's like blaming the telephone when someone places a call. They're not just market makers though. If they're unloading their entire crypto portfolio. Yes. The question is beg then, why are they unwinding? Where's their exposure that's forcing them to unwind this? That's the question. They're not doing that on a Sunday into an illiquid crypto market by choice. I'll tell you what would cause it. There's two things that could cause it. And it's really simple.

It's were there hedge funds who owned a ton of crypto and had used yen, borrowed yen to do it. And if they did that, then their losses on the yen were sufficient. They had to sell their God, do what they had bought with it.

And boom, are there japanese-based funds are there japanese-based banks smaller banks bigger banks whatever you know funds that are sitting out there or funds that are had significant japanese investments that did that and if the answer is yes then that's exactly what happened yeah uh now understand right there that's it right there of course that's why i said made the. We don't know what the stuff they bought. Now, understand something. The end carry trade, when we say it's $20 trillion, we say that blithely.

The entire Bitcoin market is, what is it, a trillion now at this price? I don't know. It's a 20th of the size of that market. Bitcoin is tiny. There's a lot of stuff. There's a lot of pain out there when this sort of thing goes bad. I mean, the Nikkei being down 12%, what I don't know, because I'm not current on the market structure rules, that sounds a lot like some circuit breakers being hit. And we don't know what will happen tomorrow.

Mike, I mean, markets go live in two minutes, right? Yeah. I just got to follow up on that a little bit. To me, the yen carry trade is a significant leave in the forest of what's happening here. It's the major source for funding, but it's also indicative of very liquid markets, massive liquidity, and extremely low volatility. So when you borrow that money, you're a hedge fund, you're levering 20 to 1, which was all my futures customers. You're finding places you can get in to make money, low volatility, and you hit your stops and you just put in stops.

That's what I point out that volatility chart. It's just getting started. So that's one of the best ways. The VIX hitting the high 60s, it hasn't hit that since the start of the pandemic. That's my point, but it's that moving average. Just one day, okay, sure, that makes the Fed ease. Everybody says, oh, the Fed's going to ease and bounce. We should talk through that.

Finish your thought, Mike, and I want to talk through the Fed because this is what people are talking about now. Here's what's going to happen, and I'll make a risk of saying this. We just went through the biggest period in history of what Jeff Booth warns us about is humans are about error correction. We created way too much liquidity and the biggest pain from it was the biggest inflation of most of our lives. And we learned that lesson. So when the Fed starts easing without the severe deflationary forces, there'll be pushback, but they will ease on the back of the severe deflation forces. But remember, the pushed back, but they will ease on the back of the severe deflation forces. But remember, the plateau is so high now for, look at all these massive cryptos, they're just the average price of a home. For everything, just to revert maybe 25%,

that to me is what's happening. It's just getting started and the cycles are, so here's one thing I'll end with this. I've been wanting to pen a piece for a while throughout the models and break out the history textbooks, which is what I've been doing, the history books. And all the cycles here are just kicking in. It's going to be nuances in between. And this is just one. OK, it's a couple of days now, but Bitcoin's the best leading. But also there's I used to say Bitcoin and 30,000 wannabes.

Now there's maybe a million wannabes. That's just too much speculative froth and ask people buy because they go up. They have to stop going up to take out that froth. And there we go. This is what we're doing now. Yeah. And I think that I agree. And I think that the Fed actually is welcoming this. They're welcoming a sell off in the stock market. It helps them. It helps them on the inflation side because our economy is so financialized and it's so tied to the stock market that having the market sell off is actually

helps them for the first time. They're getting help rather than fighting the headwinds of fiscal dominance coming out of Washington. Now they've got a little bit of help here. They're not going to come out and say, we're going to cut rates intra intra meeting here yet. they could deal with a nice 15%, 20%, maybe even 25% ease. What they would do is they would step in when the credit markets start to look shaky. We don't see that yet. But if we see the credit markets start shaking and we have a problem with those assets, and we've got a three-year, a 10-year, and a 30-year auction this week, I expect there's going to be a flight to safety in that two and 10. That's my expectation. If that doesn't happen, if there's a greater problem and you're seeing asset managers having

to step back and not take on the twos and tens because of this massive unwind of the carry trade, then that's going to be an issue. And that's when the Fed and the Treasury will step in and say, hold on a second. Okay, enough's enough. Well, maybe we should, you know, we're going to back off QT altogether and maybe we'll have a new acronym or whatever. And maybe we'll pump the brakes on intermeeting here and have like a 25 basis point cut just to calm the markets. But that doesn't help really to spur

demand for the twos and tens anyway. So that's what you got to be looking for is the credit markets. So the market just opened. So obviously it's worth discussing. I've got SPX here. Obviously I think closed 5,300-ish, opened 51.50 down. But look at the Dow. I mean, the Dow closed at 39,729, opened at 39. The S&P is down four. It looks like the NASDAQ is down six, 6%. This is truly significant. Now we're in significant territory. So let's point out what Dave said early on. The T-bond yield right now is 4.01. Effective Fed funds upper bound is 5.5%.

So there's a lot of room to ease. But the thing has been restricted forever. And I agree completely with what you said, James. But this is what's different is we is the delayed reaction of getting too expensive. Just the Fed knows we're two times GDP in terms of market cap and stock market. And if you want good deflationary force, just look on your screen at S&P 500.

That's your number one. That's a 10 on deflation or inflation. And it's all heading that way. And what stops it? I don't know. To me, this is just early days. So to me, from a tactical orientation, what do we do now? I think you're supposed to sell rallies and risk assets and buy dips and risk off assets like gold and treasury bonds and wait for those opportunities. And there'll be plenty of them.

Now, I have to say a couple of things. First, I want to go back. I want to put a pin in what you just said, because I would put an asterisk on it. But yes, that's fine. And I'll explain myself. We'll pin the asterisk for you, Dave. Pin the asterisk. But what James said about the financial plumbing, about the treasury is true. But there is one thing that people need to understand, and it is not necessarily the cost of money, i.e. rates. It's the availability of liquidity. What we do not know and will not know is, are there banks that are prime brokers, i.e. because they're all banks, that are in severe distress? And if the answer is no, then this is going to be a buy the dip.

There's only one way to find out. If the answer is yes, then we might finally get that delinking that we've been talking about after a serious amount of pain. Because the answer being yes is not obvious. We don't know. I mean, U.S. regulators, U.S. banking regulators have a pretty good idea. And if you think that there haven't been emergency calls over the weekend to every one of the money center banks from the OCC and the Fed and the Treasury, then you're literally smoking something and it's not a high quality thing that you're smoking. Those meetings, those calls happen every time you get a weekend like this. It's like, how are you? What's your balance sheet look like? Are there any issues?

We need to know. Don't you dare lie to us. I don't care what your bar model says. You know, et cetera, et cetera. Talk to me. And so those conversations. The Goldman CEO is on the phone with the New York Fed right now. A hundred percent.

But this is not that. The likelihood is, is there are Japanese banks or Asian banks or European banks that got in and provided too much leverage to some funds that are floating at the top. Is it enough to bring, to trigger issues in the, in the banking system, which people have to understand one of the reasons that I'm so bullish on blockchain. I'm very bullish on Bitcoin. We understand why I talk about it a lot. And I'm going to get back to you, Dave. The bullish on blockchain is one of the obvious use cases that will happen and it will be triggered by the next big financial crisis, which by the way, I don't believe this to be that, but that is what it is. It could happen. Is the fact that Lehman went under in 2008 and this state is still

not unwound. Just think about that for a second, 16 years. The reason is derivatives are by party or tri-party and that's it. And there's no mechanism in the world to step into that and clean it up without armies of lawyers and forensic accountants dealing with it. So why do I might, what is the point of this rant? Point of this rant is if there is a body floating to the top of significant size, it may have thousands of trades with other counterparties, such that those counterparties have no idea what they're really- Don't even know they're counterparties.

And that, if you want to understand what happened in 2008, because look, I have friends that are in emerging market debt, and they were telling me they've never seen anything like it. There were two or three months where they couldn't do a trade, like nothing. They didn't know. You asked them the question, are you bankrupt? I don't know was the most common answer. Now we're nowhere near that. Yeah. I think that this is probably closer to a multi-fund situation a la long-term capital management.

I think it's closer to a 1998 style fear here. I'm not worried about there being a structural issue across all financial markets like we did with the mortgage market. This is a little bit different to me. It might be like I think Mike was saying, you're going to see one of these funds, you're going to hear somebody blew up.

And when you hear that, then you're going to say, okay, where's the contagion? And how big is the spread? And does it spread to the big banks? Just like you guys are saying. And so what does one do in that scenario? One, if one hasn't levered, one backs up the freaking truck. And I

just want to be really clear. No, I'm not giving financial advice. Buying Bitcoin under $50,000 10 minutes ago, you're up $2,000. There you go. It's a significant trading vehicle on the planet.

Play around. Bitcoin is different than altcoins. Understand, when you get a billion dollars in liquidations in the crypto market, almost all of it, and by the way, it's fascinating how much of it, I wish I knew the answer to this, is Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. So it's clearly cap-weighted. Usually, when you have these big liquidations, it's not necessarily as cap weighted as this, but this one is ridiculously cap weighted. It's 347 million liquidated in Bitcoin, 315 million in Ether, which by the way, that is crazy. More Ether liquidated than Bitcoin relative to its cap by a lot. Solana more or less on point at 48. Then you're all the way down. XRP is 10. Doge is 13. And then you start getting into the

single digits throughout the rest of the cap structure. So basically this was a high, a, a, despite what your portfolio of crap. So with all due respect to Mario and Rand, who we'll talk to in crypto town hall. I also have a portfolio of crap. Okay. The portfolio of crap may very well be doing worse, but the fact is, is it wasn't leveraged worse. The leverage was all on the large caps. And that tells you that it was for selling. That's how you know.

Okay. Mike, I have a question specifically for you. And I'd like you to unpack everything you've been hearing this kind of a mic day, in my opinion. But we have the dollar obviously absolutely dumping, DXY. We know that this is a function of what's happening with the yen, but I think amateur traders expect that when you see the dollar or DXY, which is the dollar versus a basket of currencies to be clear. It's a basket of, it's not that many currencies. It's not across the whole world. So the yen is a big portion.

Heavily weighted. Correct. But people expect, your amateur trader goes, I need the DXY to dump so that my risk assets can go up. Right? That's what people think. Listen, we all know- Go get a mic.

I know we're going to agree. Right. The lesson we learned when S&P downgraded the U.S. debt is never be short U.S. dollar when there's some major calamities kicking in. Now, obviously, it's weaker today. And certainly, if there's missiles flying globally. Seriously, that's the way I point out when people are bearish about it. I'm like, where are you going to go? Right.

Go buy those yuan bonds. They're really going to do well for you. So what I like right now is you look at the dollar index. It's still up 1% on the year. The trade-weighted broad dollar index is up about 4% on the year. That includes the renminbi and the yuan. So, yes, we're having a pullback here. But we did see a rate hike in Japan.

Well, markets are cutting rates in the rest of the world, most notably the U.S. Some of the rest of the world are cutting rates in the rest of the world, most notably the US, and some of the rest of the world are cutting. So I look at it as I always tilt over the crypto. When some of my strategists were getting bearish the dollar a few years ago, and I pointed out, are you ignoring what's going on in the cryptos? I mean, the base layer is the dollar. Most widely traded crypto is Tether. That's a pretty significant statement that the dollar is still the profound global currency, and more so.

So right now, I see this as more knee-jerk reaction. It's markets pricing in a significant amount of easing, which means lower yields in the U.S. That's been the higher yields in the U.S. has been a key support factor for the dollar. But I'll end with this. The key thing that's been consistent with a strong dollar versus a basket of fiat currencies for at least a decade has been

the US stock market outperforming the world. So I don't know exactly what the dollar is going to do, but I do point out this is the lose-lose, and I have to admit, I started pointing out too early, that's just starting to kick in. US stock market goes down, the dollar initially goes down, but it brings everything lower. And that's why I always tilt over to beta as the number one thing that matters here. So is this a situation then really quickly, dollar goes down in the short term because it's very yen specific, right? And as James said, I mean, maybe it stabilizes here, right? So then if DXY is going to go back up, it's going to wreck everything. Yeah.

If you look at the dollar against everything, it'd be a different calculation than you're seeing the DXY. That's the point. That's what the trade-weighted broader dollar does. It can't trade it, but you can look at it. It's on a trade-weighted basis. Fed's been publishing it for, I think, 60 years. I watch it closely. It's got the highest negative correlation to commodities.

But again, the DXY is, what, two-thirds a euro. Yeah. Yeah. Trade-weighted broader dollar is 20% that you want. At least it used to be. That's trade's decline. Yeah. I mean... Look, everybody's... This is

one of those mornings where you're trying to find your mooring. What are you balancing here? And I'm just going to keep coming backoring you know like what do you like how do you what are you balancing here and i and i'm just going to keep coming back to is just watch the credit markets if you want to know if there's something really structurally wrong watch the credit markets and so we are going to see a flight to safety here i agree to i agree with mike yeah you know but it's not they're not going to be buying duration you're going to be you're going to see a flight to duration you're

going to see a flight to safety in the u.S. Treasuries for anywhere from T-bills all the way up to 10-year likely, which is the benchmark treasury of the world. And so that's kind of what we're watching for here. And if you start seeing dysfunction there, then something bigger is happening. And, and that, and so that's kind of your clue. But like Dave said, you know, look, if you have powder on the, on the sidelines, I have, I have powder on the sidelines. I'm using some here. That's me, you know, that's me. I'm using some here and I'm, and that's, that's okay. It doesn't, I'm not going all in. I'm not backing up the truck yet, but that's, that's me. It's everybody. Just like Scott joked about it. And this is not investment advice.

But it's truly everybody's in a different situation, very specific. So be careful. I would be very careful with leverage. Because if we do see some sort of structural issue with credit, then your leverage is going to get blown up. You're going to blow up your portfolio right in your face. So I would just be extraordinarily careful and I personally don't use it. Dave, before you jump in, because I know you want to, I just want to say to that point, these are the situations where everybody loses. If you believe in the market inflicting max pain,

I literally tweeted about it. It says, what would be the worst thing? You have this huge dip, then a huge bounce this week. Everybody gets long. They get liquidated. Longs and shorts all get liquidated. Everybody loses. Back down. Right? I mean, there's just the volatility here. I mean, Dave made the point. Listen, if you bought Bitcoin under 50, you're up 2,000, but in 10 minutes, you might be down. You're down to 51. But the traders that are watching this and jumping in and out are making a fortune today. That's always the days that happen. I mean, I'm not going to complain, you know, considering what my company does for a living. You know, we provide software for those traders to do a better job trading. And so, you know, that's what we do.

But, you know, it's it is what it is. The simple reality is that people in crypto feel like we're in a bubble or looking at what Bitcoin's doing. But it's in the context of a broader market. And it is absolutely true that the Fed, that inflationary pressures are being stoked by the wealth effect. There's also political year and what's going on. I don't think this S&P move matters at all to them. The Nasdaq move, maybe so, maybe not much. The issue is, is there stress underlying it? And that's what James nailed. He's absolutely right. If there's no stresses, then the reality is they don't have to do anything. People like Jeremy Siegel could tweet whatever he wants. I mean, that's the old, is the Fed put alive? All three of us have agreed on this. And we've all been saying it for, Jesus, a long time now,

that the Fed doesn't care about the stock market. The Fed cares about the credit market. What has happened? Well, if you're sitting there in Powell's shoes and you look at your long bond and you know that, hey, guys, our yield is actually 3.7 and it's actually doing okay. It's going down. That's what they want. I lost track of how many times on this program I've said the Fed wants our yields to be lower so the government debt doesn't go up by as much. So when James- Isn't that- This little thing, yeah, absolutely. They want that.

All in a day. They're not going to do anything to change that. Why would they? Let's do it with political pressure. Now, I'm not saying there won't be political pressure, but that's the issue. If the market does crash, which, you know, we're having a solid sell-off here. If the market does crash for two, three, four, five days in a row, there will be tremendous political pressure

for the lower rates for optics. But just like you guys said, that's not going to help really the stock market. It's, you know, that's just... Well, NatSense recovered 2% of its falls, down 4%, not 6%. Yeah. Dave, I also highly recommend people, if you didn't hear my conversation with Lynn Alden eight days ago, she made the very clear point. And we talked about the fact that everybody watches monetary policy and the Fed, but we might be in a fiscally dominated situation where the Fed really is kneecapped because of what the treasury is doing. Right. So like, like James just

said, it would be a kind of a bandaid in a situation where fiscal dominance might be rising. So I enjoyed that interview you had with Lynn. I think she pointed out, it might've been Jim Bianco pointed out that government spending is about 20 percent of gdp now which is about the highest since the war but i want to go back to what you said earlier scott a lesson i learned from a former hedge fund manager i worked for is bear markets will take money from everybody but the difference now what i think is shifting and i agree with what james says there's going to be tremendous opportunities to buy dips but this is what things that really shifted in commodities it's commodities about this year. It shifted from a commodity to market to a market of commodities. And this is what I think we're

way overdue for. This is tremendous for the tactically oriented. But buy and hold, good luck. I mean, it's just maybe in treasury long bonds until they get to where they are in the US and China. It's just the way it works. So we should get decent bounces. There should be feel-good periods in the state. And who knows where the level is? Maybe S&P 500 drops to 5,000, then rallies, and everybody feels good. But to me, that's the opportunity. Buy those dips, but be tactically orientated. Remember, keep stops. And think more tactical now. And there's tremendous opportunities. And then at some point we get those rallies, be very careful when volatility drops, everybody's complacent.

Because to me, this is the turn that's way overdue. A lot of us have seen this before, just to get some normalization and risk asset valuations. They're so expensive. Right. But what's normal here, Mike? So we've got- Exactly. We want to determine that. Well, what's normal is shifting back to one-to-one market cap to GDP, gold, maybe going back to one-to-one S&P 500. No stuff that used to matter. The curve going back to at least 100 basis points premium in 30-year bonds versus short rates, just a matter of time. And that stuff will come back. It's just a matter of time. And that stuff will come back. It's just a matter of time. And now I think we're in the transition now. Anyone want to continue there? Go ahead,

James. Yeah, no, I mean, that's the difficult part of these kinds of markets. The difficult thing is that you just don't feel like you understand what's going on. If you understand that, like everything we've laid out here, if you understand that you can, you can just keep your head and not panic over your portfolio likely looks like dog do today, but it's okay. I mean, like the, the, these are periods that occur. It's a time not to get shaken out and panicked or over levered, but there are opportunities that can be provided. You can shift some assets into less risky assets like gold and all that. I can't do that in my portfolio. I'm a Bitcoin hedge fund, but there will be opportunities to take advantage of.

I mean, I'm seeing tons of them and that's good for me. I mean, but I have a long term view. These are the periods when, I mean, look, this is when opportunity is made from, right? You know, when correlation goes to one because of exactly, and Mike, your exact words are great. You sell what you can sell, not what you want to sell. What does that mean? That means the market is mispricing stuff. What is the number one thing the market is mispricing today? Bitcoin. Because the,

the option value of Bitcoin and its chance of getting long-term acceptance is probably 10 X what it was six months ago. And we are at the same prices that it was six months ago, in the same range, with the same volatility around the same stuff. And that matters. Now, does it matter for a day or a week or a month even? No. Well, it could. But the simple fact is, six months ago, you had one fringe candidate talking about it. Now we have a roundtable today with the Democrats and you have the Republicans basically saying- That's been delayed. Yeah, it's been delayed. Well, obviously there's crap going on, but you have all sorts of reason to believe that global

acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset, as opposed to as a toy is increasing. And it has not been reflected in the price. That is that delinking. And that can only happen from the ashes of pain. And because that's where it was born from, that's where it's there. So the only thing that Mike has said today that I disagree with, and it's been what I disagree with the whole time, is that gold Bitcoin ratio when you're at when one is an asset and one is an option. And so I don't think that the world works as it will gap in the other direction. I think that it will be a series of gaps. But I think the time period that you look at that ratio matters because the ratio itself is only relevant in this period of time since we had a massively over levered ahead of ourself

price in Bitcoin. I just want to tell people on Down Detector this morning, this is on Bloomberg, users are reporting issues with many of the most popular online trading platforms. I'm seeing it in my group chats everywhere. Nobody can trade anything right now. Schwab's down, you trade down, Robinhood down, Fidelity not working. I mean, it's a man out there. Everybody goes to the same exit once. I really appreciate when Dave praises the Bitcoin Lord and I say pass the ammunition. And I still think- Well, you're right. Exactly. So I'm looking on my radar for, I hope what you said is going to be right,

but I'm on my radar to looking for the pattern recognition and the signs that it will start showing that. And I still point out that it's showing me the opposite. It depends on how you look at it. So at some point, you're probably going to be right. But right now, I look at it as if there's any kind of dip people should be looking to buy, it's good old US Treasury long bonds and gold. And Bitcoin at some point, but when you feel good about buying something that's three times the volatility of beta, then go for that. But right now, it's still, that's the problem. It's just the highest, it's the fastest horse in the race and the whole race is going down. Yeah. But the thing that's interesting, and I've said this before,

and James is about to nod, it's not the beta. When you look at the beta of high beta stocks, it's yes, it's unstable. And yes, because look, I manage portfolios where, you know, we've actually studied this stuff, whatever. The difference is most of that volatility is you can pretty well know, you know, it's a pretty good relationship. You give a 50 basis point or 1% move in the underlying something beta 2, it's moving 1% or 2%. That is not what Bitcoin is. What Bitcoin is, is gap volatility, like massive gap volatility. What is it? 20 days, holding Bitcoin for 20 days is all of the rally.

And it's been negatively correlated to the stock market for the last six months overall. So beta, when you're negatively correlated, basically means it's bullshit. It's sort of like a famous statistical thing. We always worry about overfitting and quantitative finance. And there have been a lot of famous ones. I mean, the yak production to the S&P was a famous one of overfitting. It was yak milk production in Tibet was correlated to the S&P for a couple of years. And it's like, you can find stuff like this. I just think that your theory on what Bitcoin is, is overfitting and using too much in the way of smooth moving averages to be incredibly meaningful. Now that's it. Everything you've been saying about the great reset and what's in there and pumped up is there. The only real issue is, will this be that great unwind? I got to tell you, I think when the great unwind happens, treasury bonds is not where you

want to be because people will have lost it. Not long term. That's my point. So there's some hopefully- Clearly it's going on today. So whenever someone- There was an alteration and a great reset. I just want to make one last point. When someone asks me, is this the stock market crash of 87 style crash? My answer is going to be only if the bonds and stocks are going down together and they're not. So in 1987, Martin Martin's why did made a killing long us treasury long bonds. They went limit up three days in a row. I stick with that same outlook. And I want to see signs of that not happening because here's the problem. One of the things

I do is I sit at the desk and I talk, what's the most highly valued, I think, position that's underweighted and that's probably po-pooed on and pushed back upon, I think, for the next period. I'm thinking a couple of years. That's why I've been pointing out TLT. And that's what I tilt back over to. This is the most hyped up market I've ever seen. That's Bitcoin, particularly when they launch those ETFs. Like I said, go back and listen to Market Wizards or the latest one. It's just a classic science that I learned in the trading business. When I look at all my screens, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, when they all kind of point out the same thing, how good stocks are doing, typical trader environment. of point out the same thing, how good stocks are doing. Typical trader environment?

I'm doing the signal from the pit. Most hype market you've ever seen? Were you not on Trading Desk in 1998 from the time that long-term capital was resolved? Clap a.com on it and you get a billion-dollar valuation. We've been in a trading range. It's been flat for six months now. We're not in a range. Not anymore.

Because of the signals I saw in 1998. So in 1998, if you want to go back there, I was long way out of the money. Eurodollar calls with clients. And we had levers. The first series expired worthless. And then we bought some more. Why? Because the Fed had not started easing,

but all these markets are tilting higher. Something's going on here. So we just started buying these out of money calls. When long-term capital hit management, we had lost a few times, went up 10X. The same signals I've been seeing lately and it's just starting to kick in now. Maybe it's wrong. But what happened right after that? What happened right after that was one of the most ridiculous bulls out rungs in real life. How long did it take? It's not a day. It's just getting – this is like one week. Absolutely.

And now we get to – so all your viewers who love to watch Mike and I spar, now I disappoint them. Exactly right. I'm not calling for a day. If I was calling for a day, I would say lever up. If you ever hear the words lever up out of my mouth on this show, it's proof that some pod person has taken me and I've been replaced by somebody else because I'm not saying that. I agree with you. But the point is, anybody who bought risk assets, particularly at the, tech stocks, any of them, from 98 through 99, when Y2K, everyone was afraid the world was going to end because, you know, planes are going

to fall out of the sky. You did ridiculously well. And then, of course, if you didn't sell them, you ended up getting crushed. So, you know, a year and a half later, but the fact is, is that run-up was epic. And all I'm saying is that the, that in certainly Bitcoin, I'm not talking about all coins, but certainly in the case of Bitcoin, because it's narrative, it could easily de-link from all this crap. I don't know that risk assets have a whole lot on the upside. I agree with you. I think that most, you know, having a GDP ratio of market cap to GDP where it is means there's not a whole lot of room on the upside because that market cap is literally of companies that are producing the GDP. So you need to have something that's outside of that system. And that's all I'm saying. That's

where our difference is. And half beta is in the system. That's all. I wish this could be a three-hour show on a day like this. And I wish it could be macro Monday every day. I would like to just invite you guys back. It would take all the stress off me of planning shows. But I do want to say something. So it's funny watching the chat and the Twitter comments. Mike, people have been criticizing you for what now, a year and a half on this show, something like that. It took all of one day of price action for the consensus to be Mike was right. That's how fast sentiment changes. It's just a really good gauge of how fast things can change.

And I want to say, we all make predictions. We're right and wrong about a lot of things. I said March. I think we've topped. Right. Okay. I also said trading in a range. Totally fine. Can't say we're trading in a range. Now, we went back to the price of when the ETFs were approved today, guys. No, the ETF approval, the spike on that day was to 49.

Okay. I'm saying, and we hit 702 today on Bitstamp and below that on Binance. I hate to tell you, I hate to say this, but I'd have to go back and look. Look at August of 17 and the price action in August of 17. Yeah, I mean, Peter Brandt literally tweeted that now we have the normal correction. Here it is. I found it. Please note that Bitcoin decline since having is now similar to that of the 1570. Exactly right. Yeah, I'm it. Please note that Bitcoin decline since having is now similar to that of the 1570. Exactly right. Yeah.

I'm glad. I'm glad. I, I, I, if there's, if I've heard that with all due respect, Mike, when I'm on the, uh, when you and I are on the other side, I think that, you know, we agree actually, and we joke it with each other. We have, we do. I do not want to be on the other side. I think I, I, I posted, I posted this recently.

I had to put it on an X. I had to take 2017. You take the 200-day moving average of Bitcoin, overlay with the 200-day moving average of S&P 500. It's the same chart. Bitcoin just moves more. Why? Because that's when futures got started. I was asked to comment twice, two Sunday nights in a row, by Bloomberg Radio on Sunday night about these futures launches. I remember that's your key sign.

When they asked me to comment on these things, there's a peak. But that's the point is, I want to see those 200-day moving averages, maybe 20-day moving averages just diverge. Right now, they're all starting to roll over. That's just- The only thing we differ, for trading capital, I agree with you.

For, I have money that I want to tuck away for a long-term investment. I don't want to miss those, the next five of the 20 days that are all of it. That's the difference for people. It's a very big difference. But what mattered is, look, the introduction of futures, in retrospect, is one of the most obvious, ridiculous signs. Why? Because it was the first time that people in the US could actually take the other side of that market. There was no way to short it in the US, literally none the other side of that market. There was no

way to short it in the US, literally none. And so that was a big deal. We don't have anything like that. There's no capital mismatch here. This is, oh crap, I got to sell shit because I'm going to call by my margin collector and I don't want to go bankrupt. And this is one of the things I own. And we always have to come back to that. And so if you believe the world is going to, that we're going into a serious, massive reset, yeah, everything is going to fall. If you believe that they will stabilize the markets and that the yen is already back and the pain is there and we'll see what happens as a shakeout, then this is a really great opportunity to buy things that you believe to be undervalued in the longterm.

This is not a good time speculating on, on, you know, whatever Armadillo JPEGs. I don't believe, but I could be wrong. I don't know, man. So I did tweet last year.

I know we got to be done that jokingly when board apes were at 300 grand floor, I went on a spaces and I said, I'll buy one at 25 grand. And they all told me I was nuts. I haven't had time, but I think they hit $18,000 today. Wow. Typically the time to buy Bitcoin is, if I can show that screen real quick, I'll finish up, is when that 200 day mover average gets lower, tilts lower, everything's low and everybody's

bearish. And right now it's everything's still pointing upwards. We're just, this is like day one and you're going to get bounces. Exactly. Traders love this, but that's my point. Just look at that. I'm like, all right, when that diverges, I see significant signs early on. I'm with you. But right now it's still showing that this is a problem. Forget leverage, dude. Had you paid, had you bought Bitcoin when, when James and I were trying to calm people

down, you know, at the beginning of this show, you're up $3,000 now. I mean, exactly. But that's the key thing. What is it just, I just, just to put, put my line in the sand because, you know, I like making fun of myself, you know, we fell from 62, you know, wherever, you know, where were we at 62, 63, when I was trying to write my newsletter down to 49. Oh, I wrote my newsletter last night, dude. I had to literally, I had to throw mine away too. And I'm about to jump in a car for seven hours. So I'm going to be up late tonight writing my weekly newsletter, but okay. Screw that for a second, but just do the math. We talk, we have $14,000. I would say

that I would be stunned if we don't hit 56, because that will be retrace at least half of that down loop. I'd be stunned if we don't hit it will we hold it i don't know but will we get back up toward where we're always get the 50 i would be surprised oh by the way it's 53 7 now so now we're almost four thousand dollars and if we by the time we get on crypto down home i think i would literally be surprised if that doesn't happen yeah well that's wonderful for the trader This is an ideal environment for the tactically ordered traders. For the buy and hold, people are way overdue for a little bit of wealth destruction. And I think it's just getting started. But trading people have a great time. Dave, I literally just pulled the terminology levels.

Buying and holding is you want to hold something that has actual fundamental value tailwinds and not something that is at the most stretched debt GDP to market cap to GDP in history. And that's my point. So what's the trade that I said people should be thinking about it with the appropriate betas is long Bitcoin short overstretched. Right now you got a 50 you just had a 50 retrace of today's candle okay well that was the age of 49 and bounced back to about 53 7. right there there you go okay fine cool there you go yeah yeah nasdaq is now only down three and uh you know the s p is only down two and a half so there you go mike you got to be just shaking your head, man. It's the first reaction.

Oh, no, this is great. So when I was in, and all the time I spent with clients in trading, this is an ideal environment for trading. But that's my point. That's not a trading. This is not a buy and hold environment anymore. It's now for traders. It's now market of stocks rather than a stock market that just goes up.

There was a market of commodities that's going up. The commodities led the way here. It's tremendous for trading. So trade. Trade all you can. Trade with stops. Always have your stops. I'm owning no leverage.

It's my background. But the macro is, you see what I showed here, the turn is happening. Yeah. Okay. Well, Dave's got to drive. James has to trade. And Mike, I'm assuming, has to dance. If you don't, I'd be very disappointed.

I literally wish we could do this for hours. Now we got to go to Spaces. By the way, Spaces is on Mario's account instead of Crypto Town Hall. I was hosting it before this because they didn't want to. The finance space is just rolling into the Crypto Town Hall spaces, which makes a lot of sense. Also, yes, I'm aware. I said Fidelity in my interview with Urien Timmer instead of Fidelity. But I still can't pronounce Fidelity.

Oh, how dare you? I know. But when you're on the street, you just call them Fido. That's right. Fido. It's fine, man. But that podcast yesterday was pretty epic as well. So you guys check that out.

Guys, I know this is one of those days. Everybody's got stuff to do. Thank you so much. out. Guys, I know this is one of those days. Everybody's got stuff to do. Thank you so much. I can't believe I'm going to be in a frigging car for the next seven hours. I'm going to go check out my traders. All right, guys. They had all their orders pre-market.

Let's see what happens. Yeah, we're going to come back in 20 minutes and see if everyone was liquidated or celebrating. That's all we got for today. Thank you. Bitcoin 53,500. What a day. got for today. Thank you. Bitcoin 53,500. What a day. Thanks, guys. Take care.

Bye. Bye.