The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Crashes, But October Still Could Be Explosive [Buy The Dip]

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

Join Markus Thielen from 10x Research as we explore what is behind the recent dip and whether Bitcoin will meet the "October" expectations.  Markus Thielen: https://x.com/thielen10x Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU ON ROUNDTABLE 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/r6ZvMws ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

October started with a whimper. We were promised humongous gains, massive pumps like the old October 1st of old. Instead, we got an Israeli-Iran conflict and some serious downside price action across markets, especially, obviously, in Bitcoin and crypto. But does one down day mean that October is canceled? I don't believe so. And I don't think our guests today, Chris Inks, of course, at the back end and Marcus Thielen of 10X Research think that it's over, right? We had a great end to September. We had some fundamental reasons perhaps now that we would see some downside to begin October. But I think things still looking very good. Still could be explosive and maybe these are dips worth buying. We're going to talk about it all right now. Let's go. today. We have a guest that you have not seen, I feel like, for the last six months. I love our

regular guests. We have been in repeat mode. You guys have come to know and love them. Well, maybe you will come to know and love Marcus Thielen as well from 10X Research. Good morning. How are you? Good morning. How are you? Very well. I want to know why the name of your company is so bearish. Why aren't you 100X Research? This is YouTube, man. 1000X Research. I think 100X is reserved for altcoins. We have the name as well, but we haven't launched it yet.

I think we need the altcoins for that. They own 100XResearch.com, 1000XResearch.com, and 10,000XResearch.com just in case the market improves, right? Exactly. Your job, obviously, is to dig very deeply into what's happening in markets on any given day, week, month, or year, I'm assuming, depending on the lens through which you're offering it. Let's just start with the obvious, right? Yesterday, we came out of a pretty bullish September, the most bullish September we've ever had. Price action was

looking pretty good. Altcoins were revving up and we saw the market just get smacked down. So what's your view on what happened yesterday and how meaningful that might be? Well, I think the most important thing is actually over the last three months, every time we saw the first week, actually Bitcoin dipping down 10%. And that's usually coinciding with the ISM manufacturing number being reported. And that has been really quite weak. And historically, it's one of the leading indicators for the US economy. And I think you can see that actually the market was selling off really sort of like ahead of this number, expecting really a weaker number, which we got. But of course, it's sort of coincided with, of course, geopolitical risk, which, you know, we have known from April don't really last that long.

But nevertheless, we have seen a 10 percent correction, you know, in September, 10 percent correction in August and 10% correction in August, and 10% correction in July, only for the market then to rally back once we got actually the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment out of the way. So there's a weak pocket between the first until really the sixth of the month. And then usually we rally. And I think that's what we're going through now again as well. It's a great observation. I just pulled up a chart while you were talking. I mean, this is the first week of July right here, right? This big dip down and then that long wick. This is the first week of August, the huge move that went from, you know, 58 to 48 in a

day, 49 in a day, huge wick. And now we have the beginning of September here, which was from 56, basically down to 52 in the first week of, and now here we are the first day of October. We came into it a little weak, but from 63 all the way down to basically 60,200, that is not an observation I had made. Uh, but that is really interesting, especially since we've rallied off those lows every single time. And October seasonally is supposed to be the best month, period. Yeah. And we also came in quite overbought last week, right? I mean, the RSI actually came to the same level where we peaked out over the last three peaks, basically. Around like 61% of the Rsi level the stochastic

indicator was also massively overbought so we sort of like expected kind of like a two two to three day sort of like dip but we didn't expect such a big dip and of course it was a little bit pushed down because of geopolitical risk and everything and maybe even i think some traders probably sold some btc and bought some chinese stocks even because of the old stimulus factor. But nevertheless, I think actually there is enough stuff suddenly happening in the background that we didn't actually see over the last couple of months. And that actually makes us quite bullish. So we think actually, you know, the market above 61,000 is a buy. And I think this is an opportunity actually to buy the dip into position then for actually not just a stronger October, but also a stronger November and potentially stronger December.

Because that's what we usually see that actually the Q4 is really strong, not just the October. Yeah, that all makes perfect sense and aligns with buy thinking as well. I mean, we were all pretty euphoric last week. You know, I was doing shows saying, hey, man, this is the first time it looks like buying altcoins. But I said, in my opinion, that means buy the next big dip. Right. Because I know myself well enough to know that when I start to feel like it's time and that things are ramping up and this is the part of the cycle where it's not yet good, that there's going to be more flush outs to make sure that it's not that easy. Yeah, but we're seeing some of the altcoins, some of the favorite altcoins actually really coming back very quickly.

And I think that's really a good sign. So I think a lot of people sort of like regretted not having bought the altcoins really after the FOMC meeting. And actually, you know, there was a big turning point around the FOMC meeting where suddenly the Bitcoin dominance, and this has really gone up for almost the last 18 months, has actually started to reverse. And I think when you look at the chart versus Ethereum gas fees, actually something is really cooking in the background here

that a Bitcoin dominance has reversed. I don't know if you can blend in the first chart there. Yeah, sure. plus you know gas fees are suddenly you know ticking up and this is really across the board uh the the third chart the other chart yeah this chart right so you see really the invite the altcoin dominance really reversing right at the fmc meeting uh so suddenly there's more demand really for xbtc tokens uh but you also see in purple really that ethereum gas fees actually have gone up quite a bit. So there's more stuff happening. We also saw revenues, Ethereum revenues.

So how much is really spent really on the whole Ethereum ecosystem going up from 35 million in August to 65 million in September. And that's actually meaningful because these revenues actually fell off a cliff in April and May. And this caused us to actually to be quite bearish. But now we're seeing the first signs of a small rebound, at least. And I think that's really positive. So something is cooking in the background. It's not just really one trade anymore that we have seen basically all year. So we are more optimistic. And I dug in pretty deep into some of this yesterday

with James Butterfill from CoinShares, a fellow researcher of yours who's great. And he showed really how much action there is on layer twos, right? So it's fundamentally good for Ethereum, but it would make sense that Ethereum itself, over time, the gas fees would go down if people are starting to understand and use layer twos.

But like base, the developer activity, and the action, the gas fees would go down if people are starting to understand and use layer twos. But like base, the developer activity and the action, the wallets, I mean, everything going pretty parabolic there. So it does seem like there's a lot of interest coming back to Ethereum and Ethereum layer twos. Listen, I'm like a pretty outspoken Ethereum bull. I find all of this to be opportunity. And one day it's just going to go up 20% and people are going to say, wow, that should have been so obvious. When I hear people saying it's going to zero and it's over and it's been replaced by Solana, I don't see it personally. Yeah, I think the, I mean, that's of course, you know, Solana, whoever it is, I think, you know, what I think the smart people are doing, they're buying a basket of sort of like the top five or top 10 altcoins, really, and really trying to, you know, to push it. And of course, after the Singapore token, you know, 2049, we also heard a lot more about, you know, meme coins, how this is going to become a bigger and bigger market. So I think there is just like stuff happening and it's just not just bitcoin

anymore and i think everybody sort of gets ready for this q4 more bullish environment and of course we had the fat meeting that was quite quite positive but i think the the other aspect you know on that note was really the previous fat meeting because that had also a big trigger so the fat meeting on july 31st after, we saw a lot of stablecoin minting. I mean, you look at the second chart that we sent along, you can really see how stablecoin issuance this year has really been the key driver, actually, of inflows. So around like $39 billion of inflows, you know, more than twice the ETF. I mean, you know, everybody talks about the ETF all day long, right? Because that's what

what red flag can easily like monitor but it's really the stable coin minting that really you know shows really the strong increase and i think when you look at sort of like you know here on the chart around like you know early august really how this line actually started to accelerate so basically the the one week ratio is now at four billion dollars so we have over the one week ratio is now at $4 billion. So we have over the last week, a $4 billion scene of stablecoin inflows. You know, while everybody talks about, you know, BlackRock buying 100 million or 50 million, I mean, stablecoin inflows

has been like a lot of money recently. And I think the interesting aspect here is that a lot of the stablecoin inflows have come actually to a circle, you know, disproportionately, because, you know, it, because, you know, it's much smaller than Tether, but that indicates that probably US institutional buyers or more regulated institutions are suddenly entering the market. And that actually is probably more sort of

like, you know, DeFi space versus, you know, main coin trading through maybe, you know, through, you know, Tether or some other, you know, I mean, call it from, you know, Tron, you know, through, you know, Tether or some other, you know, I mean, call it from, you know, Tron, you know, money inflows suddenly. But it's really, I think, more the DeFi usage that we're seeing because of the Circle stablecoin minting that probably signifies that it's really more a DeFi application that's being utilized here. And I think that's quite a change here. And you can really see how actually Bitcoin ETFs have sort of not done really much since March, but really the stable coins are accelerating now. And that's really helping to push the overall liquidity really to year-to-date highs.

So when we look at the futures leverage at the bottom in green and then in orange, the ETFs, plus then in the greenish, the stable coins, it's really that we have seen around like 68 billion US dollars of liquidity expansion, really directly in the crypto market. And that makes us really hopeful

that we can really break out of this downtrend, this 66,000 level, and then really go to 70,000 and then really make new highs for the year. So that's really kind of like... I look at this chart, leverage is relatively low. ETFs are relatively flat, but liquidity is up and stable coins is up. That feels like a coiled spring when you talk about it in that way.

And the issuance of stable coins, obviously, as you said, we know that liquidity, Bitcoin and crypto love liquidity, right? On Monday, I dug pretty deep into M2 liquidity globally. Lay that over a Bitcoin chart and it's indisputable, right? And it looks like Bitcoin's ready to catch up to that. But the more liquidity we have coming in globally, and then more specifically into the crypto market here, to your point, should send things up. And really interesting nuance that you said, I think we had sort of a washing machine of liquidity in the meme coin cycle on Solana, right? Everybody who is crypto native degenerate trader was on Solana flipping and pumping and dumping meme coins endlessly. That doesn't really show in a chart like this, right? That's the same people just player versus player having

a good time in the casino. This is real, meaningful money, new money, largely coming into the market, as opposed to a recycling of old money, which has always been the question is like, where's the new money going to come from? Who's going to buy all this supply? Yeah, and this is almost like life data point, right? So this is very important because, you know, money supply usually comes with a lag and macro data is usually, you know, a month or quarterly lag. It really takes some time until we really see it and it looks great in hindsight, but this is really live liquidity. And the other very, very important aspect is, of course, everybody knows how Korean retail traders are very active in altcoins.

And they haven't really done much really since early March. And I think in early March, you had like Shiba trading three and a half billion US dollars at one point. And the whole altcoin space in Korea traded 16 billion. And this is compared to the stock market of like 8 billion. So almost Shiba was almost 50% the whole korean stock market but since then not much has happened but also after the fomc meeting we saw actually that bitcoin was no longer the number one traded coin or token in korea it was rather some of the the altcoins so there's more rotation suddenly happening and volumes went from 1 billion to 3 billion now we're like at two, two and a half

billion. So volumes actually have picked up and we were, you know, even like over, you know, below a billion during the summer. So it has been very quiet, but there has been like a reawakening. And I think that these are all these like little nuances, all these little signs that stuff is actually happening in the periphery, you know, on the margin. And I think with, you know, we're seeing the stimulus in China, you know, we're seeing the Fed, you know, these macro data takes a little bit of time, but we're seeing real life action, you know, from the revenue fees on Ethereum, from really, you know, the retail traders, stablecoin issuance, I think it's sort of like all adds up and becomes really, really difficult to be really bearish here. So that's why I think the recent dip that

we have seen is probably like for everybody who sort of like missed this rally in the altcoins and the quality altcoins the last kind of like two, three weeks is probably a good level to buy. Yeah, I mean, it's a tale as old as time as well. Bitcoin ETFs bleed 242.6 million, biggest outflow. We talk about the inflows and the outflows. We know obviously that every time it goes down, we're going to have outflows. But then the real tale, Bitcoin plunge causes $450 million in bullish crypto bets liquidated. Everybody gets bullish. You have this narrative, everything's going to go up immediately in October. That's just a huge opportunity for someone who makes a lot of money to liquidate a bunch of over-leveraged longs, and then we can go back up again.

Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, I think exchange data has always sort of, you know, I think difficult to pinpoint because there has been some change in reporting in 2021. So the number is a lot smaller. How many people are actually getting liquidated? There has been a change what exchanges want to report um but i think one one indicator that we looked at uh you know today is basically on chain data what market makers send around and i think when there's a spike and we saw a little spike last night when they sent more coins around that's usually kind of the sort of the the dip that we have seen in price and this sort of coincides with the last with the last three dips again the beginning of the the dip that we have seen in price and this sort of coincides with the last with the last three

dips again the beginning of the month coincidentally um so i think there is you know one more science uh really the market is trying to turn but the the big thing that we are turning or where we turned a little more constructive after sort of like six months of being cautious is this is really the the monthly reversal indicators for example the monthly rsi with the monthly reversal indicators. For example, the monthly RSI with the monthly data has actually contracted back to the 50% level. And this coincides with, for example, the May 2021 dip. It coincides with the September 2023 dip. And these were sort of like coming off. These dips, you know, in a nice rally. But then we corrected a bit and it took some time and then we pumped again.

And I think that's very similar where we are now, where we had a big high in sort of like the March, April. RSI on the weekly number was massively overbought, but it has come down now really, you know, quite relatively low now. And that's where we think actually the market has actually more breathing room now to move to the upside. I mean, I don't think we ever had this. Usually we had like a parabolic top, we never had this where we go down or we go sideways for six months, still hang in. And you can argue well, maybe it's ETF suddenly buying. But I think it's really more the stablecoin inflows that are still coming,

even at this level. And I think you just see like a broadening out of the crypto, I think, usage. And I think everybody who runs any kind of online business and has some sort of like a stablecoin, you know, attachment payment system around it. I think they understand how valuable it is if you take money from people where have credit cards, that may be difficult to obtain. And I think that's why I don't think that with the business or the digital assets, bull market stops. I think we just have paused. And we're taking really the breathing room to now another bull run. And that's why I think every dip should be bought now. Yeah, I mean, this is weekly RSI just since you were talking about it.

You could see it literally risen to 88, which is really high for weekly RSI, just since you were talking about it, you could see it literally risen to 88, which is really high for weekly RSI. In March, when we went to 74,000 on the ETF hype, we know that that's when the meme coin casino was going crazy. All coins were up and also overbought. Now back to 50, like you said, which is effectively neutral. And we were sitting in this same spot at 65,000. That's only $9,000 off the all-time high, but RSI managed to reset from $88,000 to effectively $50,000 in that time. That's a disproportionately large move, I guess, on RSI, especially on a weekly chart for the lack of price action to the downside.

It just means that, yeah. Yeah. 100%, that's exactly the point, right? I mean, you would have expected a much deeper correction. And when you look back at your RSI chart, I mean, during the bear market, we went only during the bear market, we went really, really below 50, right? That's when really the absolute low was 2022. But I don't think anybody expects this. Plus, we're entering now, of course, the easing cycle from several central banks, so it's not just one. And it takes a little bit of time until it feeds through. But it's very difficult to become really bearish and expect even lower numbers. So that's why, again, every dip, I think, should be bought now. And this geopolitical dip maybe that we saw last night is probably another opportunity.

Come the employment number, retail sales still tends to be relatively strong in the US. And I think that's going to drive more demand and eventually more money will flow also into crypto, as we're seeing already through the stablecoin minting. Yeah, I just want to show this chart. I bring it up quite frequently, but this is the Bitcoin halvings and I have RSI overlaid on it just because it's my favorite indicator, especially when looking for divergences. But you can see every single bottom of these bear markets has been those few times, only one, two, three times in history that we've had oversold RSI on the weekly chart. You can say overbought like through these periods for crazy amounts of time, but oversold to your point is really, really rare.

And that was ZFTX was the last time basically it was there. And now we're basically reset to that point where if you look after the halving, we kind of end up coming back to that 50 level every single time. You know, these are the halvings in blue and you end up in that next kind of few months getting back to that 50 before pushing back up again.

So nothing here is out of line with the four year cycles that we've seen, the liquidity cycles, the election cycles, however you want to look at it. And this is when altcoins should start moving if you simply look at the halving cycles, right? We should have had a lot of a downside on altcoins for the choppy six months after. Yeah, and I think you can see this already,

you know, of course we had also like a huge unlocks, right? I mean, that's also something that is kind of, I think, early October, there's another one week of, you know, massive unlocks. But otherwise, I think the market has digested so far these unlocks relatively well.

But again, I think there's just like a handful of altcoins that are performing well, that are well financed, that are these, you know, these protocols that are basically going on all these conferences that are really on the innovation part. You know, there's, of course, now talk who's going to replace Solana in the next cycle. So people are already preparing for it because people, you know, had this view, of course, that Ethereum got replaced by Solana. And OK, who's going to replace Solana in the next cycle? So we were trying to play this. And I think these are like quality names and quality teams and quality funding.

And we heard, of course, some of the big VCs, you know, Pantera has a new race and everything, you know, for investing in tokens. And, of course, we have also next week on the 7th, the FTX judge decision. You know, who knows when the payout really comes, right? I mean, everybody apparently with 50,000 US dollars stuck on the exchange is going to get paid out probably by this year. So I think it's going to just change a little bit the positive momentum. I think what we've also seen on the Mount the you know, Mount Mount Gox has really hardly any selling scene, right? There was also a big panic, you know, so many

times right where people were playing the fat, but you know, in the end, almost nobody really sold who had still, you know, got the payout from among from on Gox. And I think we expected something like 16 billion of payouts from the FTX 4 billion are probably by distressed funds so they're going to invest back into crypto that leaves sort of like probably like 12 billion you know over in a couple of quarters but if you just assume 50 is going to go back into crypto that's like six billion dollars of inflow that's like another kind of addition to the stablecoin

minting that we're seeing so i think it just adds up to the whole liquidity picture and it's going to become very difficult uh to be very very bearish but also we did this analysis when you look at the the time period between actually october 1st until march 31st you would have made like an an a massive amount of money uh during those six months versus during the you know the april to september period but it has been actually relatively tough to make money you know the last 10 years in crypto so the market is actually going into the super positive seasonality not just in one month not just in one quarter it's actually two quarters so it's actually this period when you look back is exactly where we picked out peaked out this year uh and i think it just kind of like adds up to really the bullish sentiment

yeah i want to talk about something that you just brought up. So to be clear, guys, we say these terms and I take for granted that everyone in the audience knows what we're talking about, but unlocks. What he's talking about here is largely when projects raise money, there's a vesting schedule and a cliff for different levels of investors. It could be a series A if it's equity or in the case of crypto, it's usually like a first private sale round and a pre-sale that maybe goes to influencers and marketing teams. And then there's usually a public round. Well, those are all an investing schedule where let's say six months, after six months, you get the first 10% and after six months, you get the next 20%. Well, we have unlocks still happening from previous cycles,

right? For VCs, we're invested for, let's say, four years or something like that. And then we also get all these new tokens that will be coming on the market. But here's his point. October is set at 3.42 billion set to hit the market. 1.6 billion of those are cliffs, which I was just describing. You dig into some of these, like SUI, for example, which I like, by the way. But 2.4% of its circulating supply being unlocked, Immutable, Aptos, a some of these, like Sui, for example, which I like, by the way, but 2.4% of its circulating supply being unlocked, Immutable, Aptos, a lot of these. These are just scheduled unlocks. But what happens, depending on the market, is that most of those people take this opportunity

to sell and take their profit. Doesn't mean everybody does. TIA, unfortunately, it doesn't have the number because I think this was like a huge percentage of their circulating supply. Like it's a $1.2 billion worth, but like the number, for some reason they're not showing it, but it was a huge, do you know what it was? What percentage? It was like 15 or 20, something crazy.

Yeah, huge. I only know 1.1 billion. I mean, it was massive. Yeah. But I mean, when you look at the market cap of these things or the volume, you would expect that if a billion tokens are going out all at once that you might see a dip. By the way, that could be an opportunity to buy something you really like. I'm not saying that it's going to crush these things, but that's a lot of sell pressure on a market that doesn't

have that much new demand. Right. Well, we don't know if they're all being sold and, you know, what's what's the schedule. Right. So normally they go to market makers and then there's some discretion over a month or two or three you know to to liquidate every day every day something um but of course as you said you know some of those tokens um you know on the ownership of pc funds that are probably some of them under pressure to really sell out you know to their lps really and return some capital so there's certainly some some pressure but you know the market has become pretty smart about these things and knows these things in advance and tries to price in, you know, the cliff really ahead of it. And then usually once it happens, once the unlock happens, then we really start to rally.

And, you know, it's so difficult at the time. You have to really monitor, you know, how the token has been performing into it. And actually, exactly as you said, you know, if you really like it, there's a cliff coming. You see the token has massively sold into the unlock. Maybe that's really the time then to buy it because then we usually reverse because the market maker can also just like

borrow from somebody, sell it, and they get the token. You know, everybody's becoming like smarter, right? It's not like how it used to be, right? There's a lot of tradified people now managing it more really professionally in crypto. and that's how the market has evolved yeah i mean just before i let you go there's actually an article about this in the block and this is tushar jain who's uh from multi coin for those you don't know multi coin he's kyle

samani's partner uh tushar and they they basically led all the initial rounds to solana among others but they did you know they've done exceptionally well. But he says, there's this sort of hangover from a glut. We're not seeing down rounds or things being repriced. And this is alongside all VC in general, overhyped valuations, installed token prices reflect challenges across the crypto sector. So, I mean, honestly, this is probably a good thing for retail, right? I mean, the VCs are struggling to make a ton of money and be able to dump tokens that they got exceptionally cheap is probably a good thing. But it's pretty known now, as you said, across the industry, that this is a problematic structure that might not be as effective moving forward.

Yeah, that's also where retail is focusing more on the new coins, right? Where the unlock is sort of like, you you know sort of just happening just at the beginning and not at the end um really focusing on you know meme coins they don't have any large unlocks yeah so in the end the bcs are stuck with with all these things right and there's not much liquidity but it's very similar as we have seen in previous cycles that you know the darlings of the previous cycle have actually a hard time to really come back and take out the highs. Again, because the market has just moved on, the market has evolved. And I think this is what we're seeing now as well, where people are a little bit sick

and tired of these big unlocks. So unless it's really like a protocol, a token where people have a lot of confidence in, I think the market just moves on to something newer, not much headwinds. And you know, and really where everybody wins that can really pump together. And I think that was a big theme, you know, up the token, basically. Marcus, thank you so much. I really appreciate you joining guys a new face. I know it's crazy. It's crazy, but it's good to have some new blood here. You can follow Marcus right down in the comments. What's your what's your X?

Yeah, 10xresearch.co is our website. You can follow us. We're sending almost everyday market reports, what's going on in the market, our views. And it's written by traders, so it's direct and no wishy-washy really. There. He paid me a million dollars to let him say that. I'm just kidding, guys. Nobody pays me anything. We all know that. I run a non-for-profit. That's my business model. All right. Thank you, Marcus. Really appreciate it. Great to have you. See you soon. Thank you. The one, the only, Texas West Capital, Mr. Christopher Inks, joining the show. It's over. What's going on, man? Every time I bring you on, it's over.

Market's over. You know, it was bound to happen. It was October. First day it pulled back. So, I mean, that's the end of it, right? I mean, tops in, confirms, you know. All right. Let's look at the chart, though.

So, listen, I mean, some of this clearly, you know, I think it is clear that we have these moments when things get a bit correlated, obviously. And we do have, you know, Israel-Iran tensions raging. Although, like, I have to just laugh. Like, if you believe in Bitcoin as a flight to safety and store of value, when you see tensions, shouldn't you buy it and not sell it i don't understand like who sells bitcoin when they're like missiles sell my bitcoin that i'm holding as a hedge against insanity well well you know a lot of this selling that goes on or you know algorithms and in the you know they're based on you know news events that happen they read news events or they you know they digest the words that are used um and that's why you get the you know the bigger sell offs all of a sudden or the bigger, you know, buy ins. People are like, well, how does price move so quick when it happens? Well, it's because the algorithms are out there doing it. Right. And so, you know, and it's always part of a bigger portfolio. You know, it's rarely just, you know, just a crypto portfolio. It's crypto, it's stocks, it's bonds, it's everything. Right. So there's a whole bunch of repositioning going on, you know, when those events come out, and certain words are said in the context, you know,

and algorithms kind of parse through it. And it says, Oh, this is bad. So let's go ahead and sell. And then we get that. And then of course, retail, you know, freaks out and says, Oh, my God, it's going one way or the other, I need to, you know, follow it, whether it's down or up. So what the reality of it is, at the end of the day, news events do not create trends. This is something I try and teach all the time. News events are knee jerk reactions. Trends are already established at that point. So case in point being, you know, yesterday's move down. Sure. It was a move down, but we had already topped out one, two, three, four days prior. Right. And so we had already come down from, you know, 66 and a half thousand down to around

63,400. So we were already, you know, we were already down, you know, 5%. And then, so then we had yesterday continued down. So it didn't create a trend. It was already headed down, right? What I told, you know, our people and everything was that we were looking for this daily pivot to hold, to see how that would work. And so that was the first thing we're looking for. And it did hold, as you can see here, pulled right down into that pivot on the daily. Rallied up overnight. I was looking for further upside.

We didn't get it. Yeah, it was a pretty weak bounce. Pretty weak bounce. So far, yeah, yeah, so far. In order for me to start saying, okay, maybe that pullback is done, I need to go ahead and we need to break out over this high off that low so that on this Bitcoin all-time index chart here, that's 61, 949, and 22 cents. You'll notice it's right there at the low volume node. So again, we expect the rejection usually in that area. If we can get through it, we get up

into price acceptance in this high volume node and things start looking a lot better. We do have a hidden bullish divergence here on RSI. We did have that bigger volume coming in at that low there. I mean, so, you know, right now I'm cautious. I haven't bought in yet. You know, again, I'm waiting for that to see, you know, a move up beyond that 61, 949. I was hoping to get it further up overnight. But, you know, we're not getting it. So if we do drop on down through it, you know, we can look down here toward maybe 58, 770 or so as the next target. And then maybe even all the way down here toward the S1 pivot at 55, 150. So that's if we don't hold here where we're at. Stochastic RSI has reset down here and oversold though. Again, we do have hidden bullish divergence here. So a lot of things going on,

right on support. We just got to let it, we got to be a little patient. Let's not try to catch falling knives. Yeah. I have to say something though. So I made a mistake and I was stupid. And usually my analysis is pretty good, but I was talking to Peter Brandt yesterday, who is the legend. And he basically was like, I see people saying these things and those people are idiots. And I was one of the people saying these things. And I'd like to clarify. So listen, I was talking about how we had the high, lower, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, right? And that then you need to make a higher high finally to break structure.

For some reason in my lizard brain, I was pegging 65 as the level that needed to be broken for a higher high. We had a high low and my brain said, hey, we've made a lower high now. We need to confirm that with a higher low now. We need to confirm that with a higher low now. We need to confirm that with a higher high. So we do have this macro new bullish structure. But the 65 isn't the line. 70 is.

I'm an idiot. Because this lower low, this is the last lower high that was confirmed by this lower low. So for this to be the next lower high at 65, I'm an idiot guys. I made a mistake. We would have had to see a lower low to confirm 65 as the next lower high. So to his point, until we're above 70, actually no structure has broken. And I've been beating this drum publicly and whatever, and I'm just wrong. You know, like, and I wasn't looking at it through that lens. I'm not usually that wrong, but I was pretty wrong on that one. Yeah. Yeah. And a lot of people kind of got that wrong as well. Again, it's the one thing I've

been talking about for a while here, still embarrassed market structure until we do break that last lower high. But once we do, if we do break that, we do have bullish market structure off the swing low, in which case, what you're saying is correct. We do have, you know, a high, a low, a lower high, or a higher low now, geez, always higher high here. Um, so, you know, it's possible that we, that we've got bullish market structure building, but until we do break out above that last bearish market structures, uh, lower high until we break out above that. And for anybody watching, the reason why, um, is, is because we're just sideways here, right? We're sideways between, as Scott was saying, that last lower high and that last lower low. So, you know, there is no, there's a potential lower high here, right? But we have to break

down below the lower low. We have to, I mean, until we do that, this thing can pull back and then it could go back up and make another locally a higher high and still not actually get out above there. So you always have to break that last lower low or that last lower high in order to confirm, uh, what you're looking at there. So yeah, yeah. You know, uh, that's kind of where we're sitting at the moment, you know, um, what's going on here, you know, this price action, no real impulsiveness, no real impulsiveness here. You know, it's for us, you know, when we're trying to look at waves and trying to anchor wave counts, we look for that impulsiveness, uh, to give us, uh, you know, an idea of where we're at. We don't have that here.

So this could still be corrective, which again is why we want that breakout above that last lower high up there. So right now, you know, potentially a one, two, and maybe some sort of one, two working here. But it's also potentially, this is maybe a leading diagonal. You know, again, with this looking more corrective and this looking more corrective,

it's possible this could be a 1, 2, 3, 4, and we get a 5 up around 71,000, which is just prior to the all-time high. And that'll get us 5. We'll pull back here, and then we'll get the breakout. But, you know, it's the same thing I've been talking about as we've been building this for months. The odds are we're going to rally up toward the all-time high area and then pull back and then finally get the breakout it's it's a lot more rare that we actually just get a straight up breakout without retesting that all-time high area pulling back and then breaking out so um what i've been

telling people is you know again i don't think we hit a new all-time high this month if we do it'll be the end of the month but i think it's's more likely that it happens in November if we're going to do it. So, you know, some opportunity here to buy on these pullbacks. Your guest was saying, you know, buy pullbacks. I think that's the way it is as well. So that's kind of what I'm looking at for here. So, you know, it's just about being patient, guys. You know, a lot of people trying to catch falling knives.

Don't do that. You're just going to get cut up. So what are you looking at in the altcoin market then? So as far as the altcoin, alts are really looking kind of interesting here. So I've got this MNDE USD here. And I'm looking, if we can get a breakout here above this 0.1351. For me, initial target is this channel resistance, which will probably get us closer to around 21 cents or so. But then I'm looking really for a target up here of around 29 cents.

So, you know, it'll be a pretty good run if we can, you know, just waiting patiently to get above that 0.135 there, 13 and a half cents. That should pay off pretty well. And by the way, I believe that would just be the beginning. I don't think that's like the end. I think we ultimately continue heading up higher here. So I've got that one. I've got GTC USD here. And so we swept the low down here, printed a bullish SFP, just below 53 cents, broke out of the descending resistance, retested as support, rallied back up into this previous support area here. We've pulled back right around the daily pivot. Again, we've got a hidden bullish divergence here on RSI. Stochastic RSI is resetting into oversold. Pulled back about 50%.

So things are looking pretty good here. We did have the rally up and the pushback. We're looking for a move out above that 69 cent area. And for me, that'll give me an initial target here of $1.13. Again, for me, it would just be the beginning. I think we would continue up higher overall. But right now, that $1.13 area is kind of my target. Once we can break out above 0.69. Now, if we happen to continue to drop down here and break down through

this swing low here at, uh, 52 cents, uh, you know, that invalidates that while we're above that, that's what I'm looking at. Uh, I've also got Rose USD here. Classic. Yeah. Classic here, right? We, right we we got the uh the breakout here we hit it we pulled back we broke out uh volume expansions we continued to go pulled back again to the daily pivot area uh again hidden bullish divergence printing uh rsi is bullish above neutral stochastic rsi has tried to reset and oversold so um you know looking for a breakout above that 0.81 cent area um now what i think may happen we might just get a local run up to about nine and a

half cents and then pull back here again to around seven cents and then take off but ultimately looking for it to get up here almost about 15 cents um from where we're at at the moment here. And again, wouldn't be the end of the run, would expect it ultimately to break out higher. But right now, target wise, that's kind of where I'm looking. And then I just happened to catch this other one here doing pretty well this morning. I didn't plan on pushing this, but then I saw it right before you brought me on here. But it's WCFG. And so we've got this descending resistance that I'm watching here. And we've got the one, two, three touches. So nice trend.

We want the breakout. We're printing bullish engulfing candle right here up into the daily pivot. Resetting, of course, stochastic RSI down here and oversold. Once again, getting some, well well we're getting bullish divergence here the swing low off here but what i liked was we had price closing over here right around this uh 31 and a half cent area and then we pulled back right to it here and now we pull back to this previous and so i like what i'm seeing here looking for a breakout probably around 39 cents or so and i've got an initial target of about 63 and a half cents off that but again as i've been saying the other ones if we're doing that the odds are we're going

to ultimately head higher overall but uh 63 and a half cents there being the target once we can get the breakout and close above that descending resistance. So just got a little bonus one there, I guess you could say. I like a good bonus. I like a good bonus. But yeah, yeah, I think overall alts are potentially setting up here. And so, you know, we've been talking about that for a few months, looking at the market cap and everything else and talking about looking, you know, maybe not be quite the bottom, but pretty getting pretty close to it.

And so here we are. I think there's a lot of opportunity coming up. I could not agree more. Guys, go follow TX West Capital. Check out everything that he's got going on. Appreciate the alpha as always. Be patient, people. It's going to be just fine.

All right, man. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it, man. Have a good one, guys. Later.