The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin CRASHES To $74K As Global Chaos Erupts! Worst Yet To Come?

Episode Date: February 2, 2026

Bitcoin has plunged below $80,000, kicking off a broader wave of selling as uncertainty ripples through global markets. What started as a crypto move quickly spread into other asset classes, with prec...ious metals, equities, and derivatives all feeling the pressure as leverage unwinds and liquidity tightens. In this livestream, we break down what’s driving the crash, why correlations spike during moments of real stress, and whether this is a temporary volatility flush or the early stages of a deeper, cross-market reset fueled by macro risk and policy uncertainty.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:01 Bitcoin crashed to prices not seen since April right down to the 74,000 lows that we saw almost a year ago. In the meantime, we have the Epstein documents Warsh being appointed as the likely next Fed chair and gold and silver trading like the worst all coins at the dead bottom of the market. What is going on? Are we once again seeing signs of the end times? We're going to dig into all of that right now with James, Dave, and Mike on Macromon. it. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Scenic Epstein Island. You can see that I've decided to buy the island now with all of my Bitcoin gains. No, I do have, though, four gentlemen here who are all marked safe from the three million emails and files for the Epstein documents. We made it, guys. You know what the best part about the Epstein documents, though, is that people
Starting point is 00:01:12 said Michael Saylor was in there, and Epstein and his publicist hated Michael Saylor. It's like the greatest compliment you could ever, you could ever achieve. So, all right, we're not going to spend the whole day on the Epstein documents. Mike, let's start, man, because wow, what a few days since we spoke last. Yeah, well, may you live in interesting times? And it sounds like some of us, you know, I think we're going to have a year like 2008. But let's go to what the meeting, the people in the meeting said. Stuart Pauls, our economist, who works with Anna Wong. His key quote was, we spoke a little bit about Warsh. We all know he's a hawk, but his quote was he thinks Warsh
Starting point is 00:01:51 will be potentially spooked if inflation stays sticky. Non-Farm Pails, he's way below consensus, expecting about 15,000, the birth death model, hiring Dahl, some things that do with consensus and expecting 4.4 rate. Ira Jersey spoke, he mentioned Warsh. He says Warsh tends to be pragmatic. He He agreed with what Stewart said that he probably could get easily spooked by inflation. And his key bottom line is productivity to drive inflation over time. I think that really fits into that Jeff Booth scenario. But his quote was, I was a bit surprised. He expects next 18 months or so that 10-year-note yield could pop up to around 4.5%
Starting point is 00:02:33 with 2-year-note dropping to 3%. Wednesday is a refunding announcement. He's not expecting a big change. but the key thing that's not really priced in is he said there's a decent chance we'll see a reduction in tens 20s and 30s he says that's not priced in the market yet he says that makes sense overtime longer term but maybe not tomorrow he says it's a chance Michael Casper our equity strategist pointed out Warsh balance sheet hawkiness is probably bad for the small camps and he did point out earnings have been great beats have been in focus but the problem is poor performance beats aren't driving excitement And he pointed out Microsoft is a key one. Sergei Volkov pointed a little bit, a few things about what's happening with the dollar and warsh. And he thinks it's a likely scenario that Iran will be U.S. will strike Iran. And then I jumped in and I focused on them.
Starting point is 00:03:30 I think metals have peaked. I think crude oil is peaked. I think copper has peaked. And the bottom line thing I want to mention for everything. Even gold and silver, I think a peak is one fact. 180-day volatility in that NASDAQ is 15%. That's the lowest in eight years. If you're buying risk assets, you've got to expect that level to stay the lowest in eight years.
Starting point is 00:03:51 And this is probably not a good idea. So I want to, I guess, start with Warsh here because I've seen quite a few articles that say it was Warsh's pick. This is CMEC Daily. Market C-Warsh is a safe pick for Fed Chair, causing gold and silver to plunge. That seems like an aggressive narrative. I've also seen an article saying it's the reason for the Bitcoin crash. I mean, is the rationale here that Warsh is too pragmatic and rational? And so he's not going to be a Trump stooge in some way.
Starting point is 00:04:24 And therefore, we don't need to hedge. I don't really understand the rationale. Now, if that was the case, Bitcoin would have gone down on Friday. So, but you saw the, I mean, the markets were kind of haywire, right? you had fed funds the the probability of rate cuts um they just they stayed where they were okay so they you know they they basically priced in exactly what was already priced in yields went all over the map um you know the the the two year the 10 year the 30 year they were up and down um you know 20 30 basis points um and so that was kind of
Starting point is 00:05:08 strange but then you had gold and silver just collapse and other metals just collapse on Friday which was interesting now that could have been also you know margin requirements stepped up and and forced selling it could have been margin calls and forced selling which wouldn't that just fit you know the way that banks work they you know they if they're caught off sides maybe they'll get help a little help from the exchanges. And then something was interesting is that the I was reading that the breakers didn't work properly. Is that is that right, Dave? Did you see that? Did you see how the breakers were not working properly on Friday? The problem is that's a lot. And that could or I don't, I've never traded physical silver in large contracts. So it's,
Starting point is 00:06:04 That would be interesting to me as well. It's a little bit conspiracy theory. I'm not typically a conspiraced on that kind of stuff, but it was definitely an odd set of events on Friday. Well, I mean, the big conspiracies theory before Dave jumps in just to mention it is J.P. Morgan manipulating Silver again, just like it did in the past. We obviously know that... Well, that's happened.
Starting point is 00:06:30 That's no secret. It's like this stuff has happened. I don't know about J.P. Morgan, other banks, like this stuff has happened before with with banks. You know, I'm not going to call out JP Morgan today because I don't know what's going on. Right, but people are saying that there is evidence that they had a massive short. I am not going to speak to that obviously, but just kind of echoes what you're saying here that maybe there's a little something going on and somebody saw an opportunity, whether legal or
Starting point is 00:06:54 otherwise, to make a hell of a lot of money. But, I mean, Mike and I were on. Protect them. Yeah. That's the point. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Mike and I were on.
Starting point is 00:07:04 Market Mavericks on Thursday. I think you may have even said it here last Monday, Mike. You said, listen, Silver is going to 50, right? We went from 126 to 70. We did, you know, more than half the way by far, you know, 60, 70 percent of that in two days. And I did enjoy, I had a call this morning with an old guard, classic, very wealthy New York investor has been in precious metals forever. And I got my lecture. And she, you know, just, and it sounded just like the conversation. had about this time last year from crypto people and how all the demand is here and there and then I pointed out one simple fact is there's about 800 a year's worth of supply of silver sitting in ETFs and that's already that's come to the market 5% has come to the market that this year
Starting point is 00:07:51 so far they've been selling so it doesn't matter the fundamentals now the fundamentals that we talked about in all metals 5 10 2 years ago have all shifted now the prices have adjusted and you have to look forward. And silver just, it's a lessons I've learned the hard way. Losing money and making money in that market is when it goes up a lot. That's a last thing you want to do is jump on board. So look for a decent dip. Is this the price? I doubt it. You have to cause more pain. And the bottom line for all industrial metals now, which is how the answers have changed. Silver is now 60% industrial in the past was 50 or below, is the prices have shifted everything. And it's probably going to go back to 50 notably. And the bottom line for all these metals,
Starting point is 00:08:33 copper, platinum, pladium, even crude oil to go up, the stock market volatility has to stay low. And that's going to happen. It's going to go up. Just a question of when. And that's where I look at it is as a risk man. I switch over the risk manager, take off the fundamental hat and say, don't buy at these levels. And so far, that's working out. And I stick with my bias. I would, you know, if I was a trader, I'm not. I think it's worthy of a short copper, a short silver, short crude oil. 65 was a good level. And your main risk, when you sit at your desk, you look over to your shoulder, what's the main thing that's going to hurt me? If the stock market keeps going up, what's the main thing going to help me?
Starting point is 00:09:11 Stock market goes down. China, all this stuff is on minor now. And cryptos are guiding the way for where things are going. Risk cuts are going down. Valta is going to go up eventually. Just riding the game. Ride the wave. That's the question.
Starting point is 00:09:24 The question is, you know, Bitcoin down over 30% of its, from its highs already before. Friday. And then over the weekend, the de-leveraging, and, you know, I'm not talking about perpetuals. I'm talking about just de-leveraging from across the board from either hedge funds or European or Australian or Asian investors. You know, the one thing you could do on the weekend is obviously Bitcoin. And you can set yourself up. If people are worried about a market drawdown on Monday, of course, they're going to sell Bitcoin. That's just another leg down. So the question is, is that what we're being shown here?
Starting point is 00:10:07 Is Bitcoin, again, once again, at the tip of the risk spear, telling us, hey, be aware there are market dynamics that are headed our way that we've got to be careful of. Okay, tip of the risk. Here's the silver chart, which looks like the worst of the pump fund meme coins at the peak, right? You've got a 41% drawdown since last Tuesday. The bulk of that kind of happened in a 36-hour period, you know, going into the weekend. You can't call Bitcoin the tip of the risk spear when Bitcoin's entire drawdown from the all-time high months ago is 126.
Starting point is 00:10:43 This took a few days. That's right. That's why I said on Friday. It already had a drawdown. It was different dynamics, in my opinion. Yeah, I'm just saying like I find it hard to. make the Bitcoin tip of the risk be your argument when these safe assets are far more volatile and dumping much harder and much faster. Now there was, I want Dave to jump in, but there was
Starting point is 00:11:07 some evidence last week. I had a tweet. Maybe we discussed it on Market Mavericks, but it was largely the price of paper silver in the United States on futures contracts that were all over the place. And actually, at one point, the price of silver in India and in China, I believe, had gone up and was trading at a spot premium. It was like $90 on futures in the United States, but 128 or 130 on spot. I mean, I think there are clearly market mechanics here at play that have played into this. And Dave, I know you're looking at that. Well, one's physical, one's paper, right? So. I'm saying having a 30, 40 percent gap while they're paying a premium and it's dumping here is a
Starting point is 00:11:46 really interesting dynamic. So, God, there's so much to unpack. Let's start with something Mike said that there are two things that when people say it, my hackles go up and I know that they're full of shit. The one that everyone focuses on is this time is different. But there's another one when you say fundamentals don't matter. Anytime someone says fundamentals don't matter, in the rearview mirror of history, they look like a moron. And it's, it's, I sorry, but they do matter. They don't matter in the short run, but they absolutely matter in the long run. And there is some, there are some very massive change. that have gone on that the world figured out.
Starting point is 00:12:25 Now, if you want to understand the poster child for fundamentals mattering, it's NVIDIA, and when NVIDIA started first rallying, there were many people saying, short this thing, it can't be that big of a deal, et cetera, why do people need graphics chips? Oh, well, whatever, you know, oh, this crypto thing, it went on and on and on.
Starting point is 00:12:43 And yes, it had enormous volatility as it went up. It was not a straight line. So we understand that. People learn and they internalize. So what happened with Silver was insane, but let's get some history here, recent history so we understand it. We were on the show over a month ago and the CME raised margin requirements. I remember, Silver had this massive rally up from 50 all the way into the 70s and it was pushing 80. And the CME raised margin requirements.
Starting point is 00:13:13 And what happened? Well, yours truly made a statement and turned out to be one of the most prophetic statements I've ever made. The statement was, well, this market is disjointed. This market is no longer only speculators are not on the CMA anymore. In fact, a large part of the CME volume is hedging from market makers that are responding and providing liquidity to the contract for differences markets and the other markets around the world. Now, crypto, hell, you could trade silver on hyperliquid. In fact, coin routes trades, you know, is trading a fair amount of precious metal stuff.
Starting point is 00:13:46 With this volatility, it's one of our biggest products. So, you know, there's a lot going on, but the market makers need to head. So what I said was CME raising margin requirements means less liquidity and more volatility. So what did we see? We saw an absolute rocket ship parabola, you know, asymptotic rise. And whenever you see an asymptotic rise, it always ends badly, right? You know, there's a certain thing about markets. Markets need time.
Starting point is 00:14:10 So if you might, the silver market may very well, even Peter Brandt thinks the silver market's going to go way the hell higher. But he thinks it's going to take years to do it. And he's probably right. It is going to take years to do it. But the fact is when you see a move from, you know, it breaks 80 and goes all the way to 120 in a matter of days, I mean, that is a 50% increase in a $5 trillion market cap at one point.
Starting point is 00:14:35 You know, that is not something that happens very easily. So of course it's going to come down to earth. It's there's a lot of air. It's sort of like, it's sort of like in market terms, it's sort of like an old warfare. Remember, Game of Thrones when John Snow, was a moron and whatever that hell that episode was. And he and his people ran way ahead of their infantry support and everybody else. And then they got hemmed in by the other people because they
Starting point is 00:14:57 were out there and they didn't have the support of the Bowman and all the other stuff that you need in warfare. And then you get crushed. And so then, of course, you have this air pocket from 120 all the way back down to 80. And guess what happened? The air pocket from 120 down to 80 happened. And where are we right now? We are battling it out between the high, 70s and the mid-80s. That is not surprising. And that is not the same thing. And Scott, you're right. It's like an all-coin because a lot of these old coins are the same thing. What happens at the top? And why do the all-coins look like they do? They look they do because the founders rugpole people. So the people you expected were going to be in with liquidity didn't show up. And all of a sudden,
Starting point is 00:15:38 people start looking around saying, wait a minute, who can I sell this to? And there isn't anybody. And back down you go. But the fundamentals on silver are very different now. And there's another major difference between silver and Bitcoin that needs to be stated. Bitcoin has a 24-7, highly liquid, highly transparent electronic market for the actual commodity. I don't want to say physical, because that's stupid. It's virtual, but we understand that. Silver, the actual physical commodity, the dealers price it off of futures, and they try, and they don't know, and it's widespread. We're talking 10 plus double-digit percentage spreads. For those who are playing along at home compared to Bitcoin, that is 100 to 1,000 times, two to three orders of magnitude wider spreads on the
Starting point is 00:16:20 physical. And we have the same thing that was happening that used to happen in Bitcoin, as you pointed out on your show last week. Remember the kimchi premium in 2017? The silver market looks like the Bitcoin market did in 2017 only worse. Think about that. Anyone who remembers those days when you had multi-thousand-dollar differences between Bitcoin on Cracken and Coinbase and bigger than that difference is being Coinbase and Upbit, or BitThum, or however you pronounce the Korean exchanges, you have to understand these markets, the silver market between what's going on in Shanghai. Try getting a price from Shanghai. You're sitting in America unless you're actually in the no. I mean, there are sites that purport to do it, but you don't really know. So,
Starting point is 00:17:04 let me land the plane on silver before I talk about some of the other ridiculous crap that I just sat here listening to. The first one is the first. The silver point is we are shots fired early Monday. Yeah. By the way, Dave, what do you drink it? I got to have some money.
Starting point is 00:17:22 This might not end for 940. If you notice, you might notice that I, this is important here. Everybody who is listening, I need you all to do me a favor. If you want to keep hearing me is please direct message at premium on X because those morons said,
Starting point is 00:17:41 told me someone stole my account. I, like an idiot, responded to a copyright infringement email. It had an X.com extension. I don't know how the hell they did that. Very did the same thing like this last week. Right. And so someone came in and took my account, but the idiots at Twitter said they can't verify that I am me.
Starting point is 00:17:59 Meanwhile, obviously I'm going to stop paying for that account and whatever. But if you want to keep hearing me, tell them that they may want to reconsider. That someone who is visible, you should be able to know who it is. It's just, it's beyond belief. But anyway, that's why I'm so fired up. So sorry about the extra. It has nothing to do with the matcha tea or the fact that it's 39 degrees in Miami. All those things would actually, I would find them funny.
Starting point is 00:18:22 But no, the silver point is we are back to an equilibrium price around here and we'll see which way it goes. Speculators are having a field day. You know, things that you never even consider. Just think about the notion of it looks, oh, the market's calming down and the range is only between 84 and 78. Just think about that. You know, a 7, 8 percent range is common. coming down in this market. Price discovery is a bitch. And whenever you get into price discovery, you get this volatility. And that's where silver is. And we don't know where it's going to go in the
Starting point is 00:18:53 short run. In the long run, it goes higher. But that long run could be a decade. And all you have to do is look at the involving technology and understand just how important batteries are. How, you know, there are so many different things that you can go on and we can do a whole space about it. I don't want to do that. But I do think you have to look at the fundamentals. If a back of the envelope says that if the Samsung battery technology using silver and there isn't replacement for it could easily quadruple industrial demand where we're always already in deficit.
Starting point is 00:19:20 I said quadruple, 60,000 tons a year of demand. That is an enormous amount. Grandma's presets won't do that. Before you move on to the next points, I want to make sure you're drinking, we do need some to keep. I just want to make sure, like, we wrap the conversation on silver
Starting point is 00:19:37 before you jump into the other stupidity that you heard if anybody else has comments on gold or silver. over here before we move on. Mike does. Yeah, well, let's just clarify how dumb I am. And Dave, I love you as a big brother because you don't make me better. And the key thing is the fundamentals used to matter. The answer is just changed.
Starting point is 00:20:01 When silver gets most expensive ever versus crude oil and copper, everything shifts. And that's my point. I have shifted. You can look at your old statement, watch you lose money. I'm going to look at the statement of watch it gain money by not being long silver, although I've been bullish medals forever. No longer. This is the first time in almost two decades.
Starting point is 00:20:19 I'm just sorry because they've already done it. They've shifted all the supplied demand balances. It's just economics one and one. You have supplied demand and price. Price is the most volatile. When it shifts exponentially, everything does. So to me, I think, again, I will restate. I think silver's put in a long-term peak at least for a year.
Starting point is 00:20:36 I think it's going back to 50 in a heartbeat. I started sending to my editors on Friday. I started writing when silver was just below the buck. It's going to 50. I had to rewrite the whole thing because it dropped to 85. I'm like, oh, this is fun. But this is the way the devil's metals work, but the way markets work. It's never forget the bottom line in all markets.
Starting point is 00:20:52 It's a key thing that you're still fighting in cryptos. Simple fact, the markets, they went up too much. Now, remember, silver is not one thing is really changed about silver. And the past was more somewhat metallic, was more like, you know, a store value. Now it's 60% industrial. As, you know, in the amount of the demands coming from China. and China's facing a big screw from the U.S., their bond yields are collapsing. Yeah, I've been early on that one, but this is just the market,
Starting point is 00:21:18 and also the bottom line for anybody. Anybody's taking any risk position. Please look at volatility. You're buying volatility at the lowest in eight years in the NASDAQ. Pre-cogniz of that, and that's what I mean. The metals have figured out. I want to ask Mike a quick question, just because is there a world, Mike, where you see silver dumping but gold maintaining or rising?
Starting point is 00:21:39 It reminds me, and I said this over and over again, of alt season in the past. Like silver was moving like all coins in all season, right? And maybe the money just goes back to gold because it's the better store of value. Central banks are buying it. Kind of like money would flow back to Bitcoin. So the bottom line for the silver gold ratio, which right now is at 58. The low I think was 47. Last year I was way too early, stopped out, got to buy it again.
Starting point is 00:22:03 The bottom line for that ratio to go down is stock market value has to stay down. It's almost a one-to-one correlation historically. And stock market volatility goes up, gold always outperforms silver. Now, that's in the past when silver is less industrial. Now it's more industrial. Same with copper. The problem I have with gold now is even versus copper. It's almost the most expensive ever.
Starting point is 00:22:22 That's why the whole space, I'm even starting to get bearish gold. And you're not supposed to do that because I had a few people tell me. People I've known who's held it for decades. No, Mike, I can't sell my gold. I'm like, that's exactly why. It's what people say about Bitcoin. No, Mike, I can't sell my Bitcoin. That's why you're supposed to.
Starting point is 00:22:35 Because when it gets ingrained that much and it goes up that much, You got a pair. All right. We can move on for the next topic of rant if you had something geared up, Dave. Yeah. So silver in price discovery, we understand where we're at. You know, volatility is way higher. That still means that the momentum traders who are playing in that game are still there
Starting point is 00:23:01 are going to stay in that game until proven otherwise they lose all their money. We do not know. And this is a really important point. The last point that I didn't hear anyone mention is we have no idea of the magnitude of the losses. And understand something, like 10-10 prove something. Yes, it's a zero-sum game. Some people make money. Some people lose money. But the problem is, is the overall pool of traders, when they get wiped out, decreases when you have these massive volatility events. And it tends to create a period of lower volatility afterwards. One would think with the magnitude of the silver and gold
Starting point is 00:23:34 move, too, because gold, I mean, a 30-plus trillion-dollar asset moving as much as it did is just an insane amount. I mean, if you look at past market events in markets of similar sizes, when there have been that sort of a rise and fall, you get a lot of people wiped out that are now no longer in the investing pool than that result is lower volatility. That's generally what happens. We're not seeing it yet. And I don't know why. Honestly, I am highly confused by that. But unfortunately, unlike crypto, where we actually have data that tells us how many people got wiped out, We know over 19 billion got wiped out on 1010. We've seen estimates of over 100,000 individual accounts gone.
Starting point is 00:24:16 And we're seeing two or three billion a day right now, by the way, still. Yeah, that's right. Doubles and triples Ft X's on random. The thing that people have to understand about crypto is, yes, there's two different types of people, people who push all their chips in the table and get wiped out. And there are some of those. And that's horrible and people, and, you know, we all of us, all four of us, consistently warn people never do that. And then there are intelligent professional investors who
Starting point is 00:24:44 use crypto perps on high leverage the same way you and I or any of us would use options. So we might take a thousandth of our portfolio and buy an option, you know, that will expire worthless if, in fact, we're wrong. And the same type of way, you take a thousandth of your portfolio and you do a hyper-leverage crypto trade. And if you're wrong, you lose everything. But if not, you make a lot of money. And so some of those accounts that get wiped out are not really accounts. They're just, you know, effectively the piece of your portfolio. But my point is, we have no idea the damage that was done in the gold and silver markets. And in fact, the market does not look the same. It is, it is different. So when you could say words like Bitcoin is the tip of the risk spear and you have that amount of risk on an asset
Starting point is 00:25:27 and a complex that's combined 15 times larger than all of crypto, then I start thinking the only tip of the spear thing is the fact that you can't really trade gold and silver for a period of time on the weekend. You have to understand, Dave, that when I say that, it's just the way that it's been treated. No, no, no, I understand why, because we've been taught about it. But Bitcoin's volatility, even with everything that happened this weekend is still way lower than a lot of these other markets. And weekend trading, I mean, look, there was a time and there will be a time when you'll be
Starting point is 00:26:00 able to trade stocks on weekends. So it used to be when you could trade stocks after hours and the volatility of that. on stocks after hours was enormous, I mean, literally enormous, to the point where regulators started getting pissed off because people would do this, particularly around earnings, right? You know, when there was after earnings and you had to wait for the next day and you see all sorts of stuff. I mean, liquidity is one of those things. There are a lot of people out there who will play in the weekend areas and ultimately end up
Starting point is 00:26:26 getting hurt. But more often than not, the volatility decreases once futures open on Sunday night in New York time and Asia's open Monday morning. And that's generally what happens. But the point that Bitcoin is the tip of the risk spear at this point, I mean, when its volatility is lower than most of the Mag 7, I'm sorry. It's it's, it is true on the weekend, but it is not true from the time that people are listening to us.
Starting point is 00:26:51 That's all I was trying to say. It's just different. Now, look, what's going on in Bitcoin is the same. I mean, I don't want to say it every week, but fuck it. I'll say it again, which is you have time-based capitulation, right? You know, we are in the middle of something that takes time. And everyone who believes that you're going to see a V-shaped recovery because all of a sudden some catalyst is going to save us, they're the ones who get wiped out. And so that creates a slow grind lower until you end up with a slow grind higher.
Starting point is 00:27:18 And then that changes. I mean, directional changes don't happen overnight. And yeah, we might want them to. And there's some good reasons why it should happen. But, I mean, we'll see. I mean, we didn't hold the range, right? You know, let's call it what it is. We had this low 80s to low 90s.
Starting point is 00:27:34 We were at 98 two weeks ago. So it's not quite sad. We knew that if we broke 85, we're going to get in that 77 to 82 pocket. Right. We drop down below it. It's invalidated. And now we're back into, I'm not going to say negative price discovery, but we're in this place where people are talking about whether it's 68 or 58 or
Starting point is 00:27:55 blah, blah, blah. You know, the technical traders are all bearish. I mean, look at the greed and fear index this morning. We're down to 14th, right? You know, we had like three days where we got to neutral, but we've been fewer extreme. It looks pretty bad. What?
Starting point is 00:28:10 Yeah, I mean, like, if you look at it pretty severely oversold in the short term, but look, if you look at as a chartist and where the support levels are, we're testing the last support we have here until the 60s. That's just reality. 100%. I mean, we ticked it 80 bucks above the low from April. So right now, if you look, I can bring it up. I mean, if you look at the chart, so for those who view
Starting point is 00:28:35 more markets, you know, higher lows and higher high, we still have that by 80 bucks right here. So technical bull market in that perspective, and as James said, the 74,000 level has been key, you know, going all the way back to the beginning of 2024, lose that. And actually, you know, you technically have a lot of other reasons. But listen, there's key MAs above price.
Starting point is 00:28:56 It's a pretty ugly chart beyond that. 100%. A chart that technically. are terrible, sentiment is terrible. We broke through a range. The question is, who has much left to sell of the people who are selling? And where are the buyers? I mean, we know sailor is going to sit there buying. We saw Justin's son buying, et cetera. Look, there are some things that are going on in the market, which are problematic. There's no doubt that the Epstein files and people hysterical about Trump and all the various people arguments. I mean, I hate to even say it, that Jeffrey
Starting point is 00:29:29 Epstein was involved in Bitcoin in the beginning, you know, all of this stuff. There's no doubt that this stuff affects people. And, you know, this two shall pass, right? Because it's just, it's, that's an absurdity. But you see that he almost got dinged from his block stream investment because he was looking at ripple and stellar. Yeah. More interesting emails. But yeah, go ahead. Yeah, well, XRP is at 1.6 right now, right? You know, just, just keep that in mind. I mean, that's from, so, you know, the, I, I, I don't know, I lost access to X. So I can't. interact with the ex-rp army today, but I can only imagine that there are some people who are like, what the hell happened? You know, it's like, there's got to be a lot of moroseness going on.
Starting point is 00:30:08 But look, the truth is that the entire, we are in, I said it a week and a half or two weeks ago, that this is what crypto winter feels like, and we're in crypto winter. And it's kind of, it's poetic that it's 39 degrees of Miami and 10 degrees in New York City as we're in crypto winter. We're real winter and crypto winter. There's no doubt. I mean, there are people out there who, believe that it's all over. And it's exactly what happens. It is, it is literally textbook. I mean, here it is. There's one common denominator with every crypto crash in history. They always seem like the end of crypto and they always become rounding errors in the long run. Right. And so it's a question of that's where fundamentals matter. And frankly, some things in
Starting point is 00:30:47 crypto fundamentally have value and some do not. And we'll see how all that goes. I want to address what you just said, Scott. To me, that's so prolific. It is what I love the about Trump one and Biden was I could write stuff that was so logical, stuff, great stuff to look forward to. Bitcoin was cheap. We all knew the bottom base layer was a dollar and crypto dollars are all investing in treasuries and they didn't get it. That was wonderful. We knew that was going to be a matter time to figure out. ETS were going to be launched. We knew it was a matter time. How they did is matter. All that stuff is over now. It's in the mainstream. It's getting out. It's done. The whole space is done. So my point is we're in the purge stage, was get through that purge stage. You mentioned X, It can easily go back to 50 cents. I mean, it's where it was right before Trump was elected. That's nothing. Doesn't mean a big deal. Look at Dogecoin.
Starting point is 00:31:36 Finally, it's almost two-thirds of the way there. If we can just take a rest of that $17 billion and get it to zero, then we'll find the bottom. The bottom line for anybody and anybody who's not stuck in this space until trying to fight a beer market is, you don't buy risk assets when you have volatility, unless you expect stock market volatility, they stay inordinately low. You wait for rallies to sell or you stay away. To me, that's still the case. Now what we've had happening in the precious metals is truly historic.
Starting point is 00:32:02 Now, I've only been in the market for almost 40 years. I never thought I'd be able to say, a chance to say, hey, I sold silver at the highest price of it versus copper and crude oil. Just to be able to say that, it's like, oh, wonderful, what are you supposed to do? You're not supposed to buy it. That's my point. We're in that stage now. This is to me, this is setting up to me like a 2008 year, and you have to sit there
Starting point is 00:32:19 and hope and pray. Someone in the Bloomer chat this morning said, hopefully, you know, when I pointed out my outlook of Bitcoin going to 50 and NASA, I'm sorry, silver going to 50 is, hopefully you're wrong and they'll just add zeros. I'm like, hope is the worst trade. That's what's still happening. We're seeing people fading. They're trying to, it's a classic thing that happens in bear markets, too much false hope. And then you look over what's the fundamentals have changed, have shifted. Wait for it to all pan out. I just, people looking for bottoms and cryptos, I'm like, yeah, good luck. I just love to see it, but I don't see any signs of it yet. And now we just,
Starting point is 00:32:52 we had this narrow range since November. We just broke down. You're supposed to go with that trade. That's a fair point, but there are two points on one of each that I want to make one in terms of silver. My thesis is simple. It's not an absolute price level in silver, although I think it will get there. It's silver to gold. The gold silver ratio, and silver has actually fallen more than gold, has actually gotten worse since Friday. But my prediction is the silver gold ratio will get back to where we were in the 70s, which is the mid-30s. By the way, in the Earth's crust, it's 20s, just to understand.
Starting point is 00:33:28 When gold was the massive beneficiary of financialization and silver was effectively demonetized by gold, and you said it was 60% an industrial metal, I don't know what the percentage was, but I think for the most part outside of China, silver wasn't a monetary metal. It was an industrial metal that had monetary ability to buy it. So you could buy peace dollars or pre-64 silver or Eagles before the mint basically said no, you know, because they ran out of silver to produce it, you know, that ratio is one of those statistical things. It's a long-term statistical thing, but maybe the ultimate, the ultimate stat arc, which is silver should be somewhere around 120th gold based upon the way you recover it,
Starting point is 00:34:13 et cetera. And that I still believe in. I don't think we, I don't think 20, like a lot of people do. But look, the entire decade of the 70s, it ratcheted in the mid-30s, mid-to-high 30s. And that was the last time we were in a kind of monetary situation where we are seeing a reset. Now, the one thing about Kevin Warsh that everybody needs to understand is Kevin Warsh and Scott the center are on the same page. They're playing from the same playbook. And that matters a lot. Both have bought into the notion that we need to reset our policies from where we were since the 70s in terms of U.S. dollar privacy, U.S. as a reserve currency, and allowing us to let our industrial capacity get hollowed out. They both understand that we need to rebuild American productive capacity. And to do that,
Starting point is 00:34:59 many things have to happen. So when you look at that, that has a bunch of implications that go just that go beyond interest rates. They can't afford, and neither of them are dumb. They're both incredibly smart people. They cannot afford to lose the long end in a way that looks like some of the charts you see at a Weimar Germany, right? They can't afford that. So they can do everything they can to stop that. Behind the scenes, they want a weaker dollar in the sense of one that doesn't disadvantage American manufacturing and disincentivized investment. They want more investment here. They want to run our GDP as hot as possible.
Starting point is 00:35:35 I mean, 5% GDP. And at the same time, just instill confidence that Warsh is a hawk. He's not going to let things get out of control. In the meantime, you're going to find Operation Twist before you know it. That's exactly right. just don't have a choice. It's not about them learning their, like, Mike, I, I, I, this is the spot where you and I differ.
Starting point is 00:36:00 It's not about them learning their mistakes. They don't, they, they don't have any other play in the book. That's it. It's, you know, I mean, there was part of what I wrote about, Warsh being the, the pick this weekend. I wrote about it in my newsletter. There's four doors. And the only door that's, that's been open, since we got.
Starting point is 00:36:20 deficits out of control and our debt spun out of control that you've got one door and that door is to print more money and keep interest rates lower it's everybody is turning japanese period that's just watch japan that's where we're headed okay so by the way i want to talk about one other one other point the policy tools of this administration are about to slam shut of them it's essentially whatever the agencies can do so whatever the fed and treasury can do whatever the cfdc can do in our world, et cetera. I mean, we just, we got a preview of the midterms that just recently. There was a seat up in Texas that Trump won by 17 points and it flipped Democrat. Trump is going to spend two years fighting off impeachment. We're going to get no policy done whatsoever because everybody is going to be
Starting point is 00:37:09 the only thing the Republicans are going to care about. The only thing the Democrats are going to care about is 28. It's going to start. It's going to be 24-7 once the Democrats win in in November because the Republicans refuse to coalesce. Maybe, maybe they grow a pair and pass the Save Act, and maybe we get elections that aren't quite so bad. But the truth is, they're going to lose no matter what. I mean, you can't just fix it when people are pissed. The one thing that we now know, based on the budget, but on this partial shutdown and everything else, we know 0.00% chance they're going to be able to cut all the crap that they thought they were going to cut. I mean, If you listen, I was at an event yesterday and was listening to Van Jones, who is,
Starting point is 00:37:52 oh, God, for God, see. No, no, no, no, no. Look, he is much more common-sensical than you give him credit for. There are some real issues here. He pointed out some things, which I didn't know, that the data backs them up, which is that the cuts that did happen in the federal government and through the NGO complex did disproportionately hurt minorities. Absolutely did.
Starting point is 00:38:15 And you go back and you can look at the data. unemployment rates among, you know, in his particular case, he talked about college-educated black women went way up. Now, what does this tell you? This is a massive political thing. And so they are not going to, watch the Republicans, and they're already doing it. We didn't know why. I didn't know why anyway. Maybe I'm not as smart as a lot of people, but they're already backpedaling from budget cuts. There is zero that they're going to be cutting this stuff. They're not going to cut the loser. It is absolutely impossible. And so, yes, they want to run the economy hot, but they can't cut the spending side of it.
Starting point is 00:38:52 So you're going to see, the only way you're going to ever see deficits go down is if we tremendously increase revenue. And yeah, Trump will talk about tariff revenue. Other people talk about economy hot. All right. If we got to move to James, because I know he had some, Jay, I can literally see you dying. Sorry, I want you to get a chance. Go for it.
Starting point is 00:39:11 No, I mean, it's, it, what you're saying is, is mildly. it is true. What you're saying is that there's no way around, you know, the fact that we're going to be spending money. The question is, like, we keep talking about, yeah, we're going to raise productivity. We're going to raise productivity. But at the same time, you're seeing the raise in productivity because of this rise in AI and taking out a number, just a swap of that lower economic base of white collar jobs. You know, you're talking about all these administrative entry. level jobs that are that are you know have to do with data accumulation and analysis that's just
Starting point is 00:39:52 it's getting they're getting wiped out and you're seeing tens of thousands of jobs you know just lost and in the layoffs last week i don't know mike maybe you have a number that came out in the morning meeting but tens of thousands of jobs last week of you know these tech companies just announced it the the problem is the the productivity miracle is it's it's bringing deflation at the same time, you know, so because it's off of AI. It just, it's, it's, it's, this is, we, this is a spot that I don't think we've ever been in in modern finance. And so with debt and deficits so high, the need to have a, a larger revenue base, you know, larger GDP, at the same time that you, the, the productivity miracles is coming at the cost of
Starting point is 00:40:43 pricing, you know, everything's going down. It's absolutely deflationary AI. So what's your choice? This is Jeff Booth's thesis of, you know, the price of tomorrow is you've got a productivity miracle coming, right? But at the cost of GDP. And so this is literally what the price of tomorrow is about, the fight between the natural deflation effects of the advancement and technology versus the absolute need for expansion of GDP nominally by debt-laden economies. So how is that going to, how is that going to play out?
Starting point is 00:41:28 And you've got Warsh, who's the pick here, who's supposedly a hawk, that, you know, like you said, Mike, they're going to move away from tens and, and twenties and 30s on issuing debt because they can't issue debt at this rate. they need those rates lower. They can't lock them in for 30 years. Here are those job numbers, by the way, that you were somewhat referring to. Yeah, there you know, exactly.
Starting point is 00:41:56 I mean, like we, I'm trying to warn people who are not on X. The only people who are, you know, aware of this stuff are the people who are on X and talking about this and listening to people like, you know, not just me. There's a lot of way smarter people. people to me online and in the news talking about productivity and, you know, the all in
Starting point is 00:42:22 podcast, like these guys and Scott, the guys you've been having on, like, this is real. And if you talk to normal people, they will be completely blindsided by this. They have no idea what's going on. None. I talk to, I could talk to 20 people, 20 of my friends who are not in finance and not plugged into this. Exactly. They have absolutely. no idea what's going on. They're completely lost. They've, they're, they're clueless that this is happening. Forget about claw bot. Oh my God. Like, forget about having an AI agent running on your own machine. Like, they're just, it's already, people are already using that, by the way, to hack people's crypto. Of course, they are. You know, I would caution people, you know, but
Starting point is 00:43:07 this is, this is something that's real. And yeah, I mean, like, or Mike, what is, what is the response of your economists. And I'd love to know what Anna Wan thinks about this stuff because, you know, this is the kind of thing that's keeping me up at night trying to figure out how to how to approach that from an investment perspective. So I have a trade for you. You mentioned turning Japanese. I agree. You know, I traded those JGBs 30 years ago. I remember this well. Tenure note right now in Japan is 2.22. Now, finally, coming up, it just took 30 years to come out of that. Let's look at China. Tenue note yields 1.8-1. Both of those countries, have massive deficits, are expending, expending massively, maybe Japan a little bit, just to keep their
Starting point is 00:43:50 economies afloat, yet their 10 year notes are around 1.8.1%. I look over at this U.S. Treasury bond. I started in this trading pit in 1988. I've been dead wrong for three years. The 100-week, Bollinger ban is the narrowest since 2008. I just look at this since you can buy calls for a year or a little less. You're supposed to be buying calls in U.S.T bonds. Yeah, maybe you lose some of your premium. Sometimes you lose all the premium, then you reset. And when you're right, you get 10, sometimes you get you get many X. These are so cheap. It's kind of laughable, you know.
Starting point is 00:44:21 Yeah, at some point that trade's going to kick in and all takes one little thing. One little thing is guiding everything. It's just a little pick up in stock market about it. It'll happen. All the markets are telling us. Cryptos are telling us. Precious metals are telling us. And yet we're back up again in the stock market.
Starting point is 00:44:35 It's never going to go down. But when it does, I guess it's going to be some great opportunity. To be clear, to be clear, for people who are listening, what Mike is saying is that if you look at long bonds and TLT, that is a, I would say it's a trade, Mike. I don't think it's a long-term thesis to stay in long-term bonds. I would say it's a trade that the rates will come down because of a flight to safety. You know, you can't have a flight to safety in something like silver or gold when these things are moving 10, 20% of the clip. That's now suddenly that comes off the table as a flight to safety, right?
Starting point is 00:45:06 So maybe gold becomes, you know, the ultimate flight to safety again. but that's what you're saying, I think. If I can translate for the listeners and help them understand. Well, typically, treasuries are less of a trade, but here's the bottom line so far this year is we try to get above 5% and couldn't do it. I think it goes back to 3%. Try to get crude above $65, so far, can't do it. Try to get Bitcoin above $100,000 couldn't do.
Starting point is 00:45:35 Try to get silver above $100, couldn't do it. Try to get copper above $6, couldn't do it. You see the trend there. It's only February. There's stuff going on. The thing that's still staying strong is the stock market. But all these other things are tilting towards what you expect is normal post inflation deflation. I'm sticking with that bias until proven wrong.
Starting point is 00:45:55 You got to at least stay above these levels. And that's where maybe it all starts with that S&B 500. It's got to stay above 7,000. And maybe it goes back to 5,000. You know, stuff like it used to do. Yeah, but you just, but you just, here's the point is that your, your economists at Blum, I, Rubeberg, agree with me. Because they know that the Treasury is going to, they are, they are migrating away from issuing debt that's longer dated than just a couple of years.
Starting point is 00:46:23 And because they know that they can't afford this. The government simply cannot afford to lock in a 30-year rate at 5%. That's, they just can't, we just can't afford it. So you got the government on your $10 trillion is going to come due this year. They're going to roll that right into T-bills. They're not going to do what's called term out the debt, meaning moving it out on the curve. They're not going to do it. They want to, but they can't.
Starting point is 00:46:54 So that's where the percent is stuck. Let's say we're walking into midterms. What's the key themes and things that helps the incumbents? Natural gas has to go down, crude oil has to go down, and bond yields have to go down. Okay. You got, exactly. You got to get on the trade. You got to get mortgages cheaper.
Starting point is 00:47:14 You've got to get groceries cheaper. Energy is the single largest input. If anything we do and of inflation, I agree. You know, but here, here, I've shown this before. Just want to show this again for people to understand what we're talking about. Mike, you know this chart well. You love it. You see this, Scott.
Starting point is 00:47:34 This is how much debt is, this is maturing this year. It's going to be between here and the beginning of 27, we're talking about 14 plus trillion of debt, not including the two plus trillion dollars that they're going to pile on this year for additional deficit. It's mental. I just can't see rates long term going back to 2% on the 10 year. Why? Because people are going to demand a return that gets them closer to a real yield.
Starting point is 00:48:07 They won't get a real yield. I don't think for a while, but they're going to demand it. Unless you are, you know, you are absolutely, you have no other choice but to put your money into 10 to 30 years, you're going to demand a better rate. So when's the last time we had at least in the amount of, we finally have only, what, almost not even six months yet of negative sentiment and cryptos just started. We haven't had six months or a year, a couple years of negative sentiment stock market a long time. We're just overdue for that. what precious metals are telling me this year is it's going to happen this year.
Starting point is 00:48:40 And so I look at those long bonds. I love cryptos forever, got out, jumped off that horse in 24. I love gold and metals forever, jumped off that horse this year. And now I just see bonds, get through that trade and we can move on the next trade. But right now, I, this is a year to be in treasuries, I think. I don't disagree with you. They may be the ultimate flight to safety here. If we have a correlation of one event, I don't disagree with you.
Starting point is 00:49:05 But where I think we disagree is that they're a long-term holding. I just don't see you getting a real rate of return on holding bonds. It just doesn't make sense to me. Well, you did very well in Japan for a while, and then they went negative. We got too long. And China did very well, one of the best performing bond markets the last couple of years. Now they're too cheap. I think the U.S. is just going that way.
Starting point is 00:49:28 It's global. I mean, the problem with deflation is not to go all Milton Free. on you guys, but inflation is a monetary phenomenon and we are making more money every single year. And not by small amount. And it's not just dust. When now the Germany is paying for defense, it's literally every single member of the G7 plus, you know, plus China, plus, you know, et cetera, you know, throughout the emerging markets. The entire world is, is a wash in printing new money. So when you talk about the, you know, deflation, you're fighting a, a, a, to 10% increase in global monetary supply every single year, it's pretty hard to get negative
Starting point is 00:50:11 numbers there. That's, that's thing number one. Thing number two is when you talk about price levels and we need to see this, we need to say that from the technical basis, I mean, that's jibberish. I mean, that's backward. You know, Rob Arnott, who's one of the smartest, smartest quantitative minds out there. I mean, I'm sure Cliff asked us, if he listens to this, would say, no, no, no, but whatever. But there's no question that Professor Arnott is a smart guy. He once had said something that I've always taken to heart, which is quantitative trading, and the same is true with technical trading. It's like driving a car looking out of the rear view will mirror.
Starting point is 00:50:42 Sure, you kind of see, you know, trends in the road, but that doesn't mean that you see what's actually happening. What's actually happening is the entire Fiat system that's in the world, the entire can, down the road, continue to take out debt, debt-fueled economies are coming to an end. The fourth turning is upon us. It's been, in the global scale of economic history from 1971 to today is just not that long a period of time. And the dollar being a global reserve currency has the benefit of, you know, lasting the longest in this whole charade. But the benefit is at a cost.
Starting point is 00:51:21 We literally have, that's the point. That's exactly the point. A cost is our bond yields are 200 basis points at least above everyone else. else with the exception of the UK, which is a total dumpster fire. You know, in terms of that. In more ways than one. Oh, yeah. No, I mean, look, I was very close to UK citizenship.
Starting point is 00:51:42 I lived there for a bunch of years. I love the country, but the economics in this, they're a dumpster fire. They're, you know, the poster child for the collapse of a mercantilist economy. And we all kind of know that's true. But so the U.S. pays higher rates. We just do as part of this thing. It's part of the grand bargain. the grand bargain, we get to keep the dollar, we get to import stuff and send out IOUs,
Starting point is 00:52:06 and that's what this administration is trying to end. How does ending look? Well, ending looks like significant dislocation. Now, that dislocation could be, is going to be some things that are going to be good, some things that are not going to be good. But the truth is that there's no way out, at least for a short time. You know, Lynn Alden gets quoted, nothing stops his train. But what she means by it is we are going to continue to continue to
Starting point is 00:52:30 print until we get to a time where we can get seven, eight percent GDP growth and massive increases in taxes, you know, increases in tax revenue. And frankly, without any legislative changes, and I don't think we have a chance of legislative changes, I don't see how that's going to happen. So what you're good to see is the one thing they can do is they can deregulate. They can because they control the agencies for three years. And they're going to get very aggressive with that. What they can do is on the monetary policy and Treasury is coordinate a policy
Starting point is 00:53:00 of relatively easy money and telling they're going to do the they're going to do what the high school magicians do remember i always used to do this you know you do all that you just tell people about this and everything's happening back here this is i'm a hawk i'm going to control inflation this is we're going to be printing right you know i have a choice we have to print exactly that's right so you see that and and we always called it jawboning back in the day that's what the fed is going to do they get a lot of jawboning But the truth is, liquidity spigots need to be on because they need to grease the economy. They need massive investments in things like rare earth refining and things like productive capacity. They want to resour steel.
Starting point is 00:53:41 I mean, no rational human being thinks it makes sense to have the coal and the iron ore mined in one place shipped halfway around the world to be processed and then imported back to the United States. We want to fix that. And the only way to fix that is massive investments. How do you do it? right you know it's it there's a lot it wouldn't hurt to have the proper refineries either but that won't happen well but that's the point they they need to get through the environmental stuff i mean trump in the last the last time he spoke actually mentioned lee zeldon for the first time that
Starting point is 00:54:11 i had heard him speak about lead zeldon may be the most important person in reindustrializing america leaseldon for those who don't know is the head of the epa i thought he's from led zeppelin at the time but it's it's but but yeah but but but but but yeah but but but but but yeah but but but yeah but but yeah but but yeah but yeah but You know, getting environmental rules to be able to allow for building in this country is what they're trying to do. These are things they want to do. You know, they don't care about, you know. And at the other time, the other thing is, is people talking about Bitcoin. The last point about Worse that I possibly make is, and you have had Caitlin Law on your show many times, Scott.
Starting point is 00:54:47 Don't underestimate the change in direction of the Fed's regulatory power. Do not underestimate. Don't fall asleep on it. That is a major long-term thing. Mike is right, though. That long-term thing, that fundamental, that's not going to show up in the price anytime soon. It is from some people, but it's not enough. But it is a big deal.
Starting point is 00:55:07 And what I mean by that, just to land the plane, is once Bitcoin can be adjudicated to be pristine collateral and usable in the financial system, it opens up Bitcoin banking and many other things. I was talking, I had dinner at, you know, Matt Rozak is another friend of your show. Yeah. Matt was talking about this, how important Bitcoin banking. will be, you know, as things move forward. And that's going to become legal in the United States. And that's a big deal. But it's not going to happen tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:55:33 It's not going to save. It's not going to be the next tick in the price. And so for that, we are still stuck in where we are. Okay. I gave you guys a lot of stuff there. Yeah. I mean, we're kind of at 7, 957, if either you guys want to respond. If not, there's one more thing I wanted to point out.
Starting point is 00:55:51 Yeah, it's here. This is indicative of the state of things. Bitmines BMNR, unrealized ETH losses rise to $6.6.6 billion now on track to become the fifth largest documented principal trading loss in history if sold. Unrealized losses are now at 66%. The size of ArchGhost in 2021, the largest loss ever recorded. It's not going great. Maybe they should have used the 200 million from the Mr. Beast deal to buy the lows here with Eath. But I'm not sure if they've been buying. buying, but it was at the moment that there was a strategy pivot. I think it's pretty ugly for treasury companies is what I was getting here. I mean, this is disgusting. I had to mention one thing about ETH. I enjoyed posting last night.
Starting point is 00:56:37 You know, Heath has been stuck between 2000 and 4,000 forever. And it's never been a good one to buy when stock market volatility is very low. I just point out, yeah, 2000 support, but you really realistically look at it. It's probably not going to bounce there. It could easily go to 1,000 just because stock market volatility is too low. Oh, it's the bottom line. I think people have to remember that when you're buying these risk assets with a high correlation. And then I keep it thinking the big picture macro and everything is we're in the U.S. stockmark 2.2 times GDP.
Starting point is 00:57:05 If it drops 10%, that's almost 25% of GDP. We're overdue for that. That's going to be your deflation. That's going to be what's going to get those bond calls to kick in. That's what cryptos are predicting. Precious metals are predicting. If we can get through the year and avoid that, that would be wonderful. But easy as you mentioned, after the midterms, Mr. Trump's going to be more of a lame duck.
Starting point is 00:57:25 And if he keeps inflation high, he's going to be a super lame duck. Yeah, I think he's good. I think Dave is right, though, in that he may be a lame duck legislatively and have problems, but the regulators are going to be effectively able to do whatever they want for the next three years. Matt Hogan made that point pretty eloquently last year. So I don't think it's, quote, unquote, over for this industry, regardless of what happens with Trump or with the Clarity Act, which I think is dead in the water personally. but some people seem more optimistic than I do.
Starting point is 00:57:57 There's a meeting today, I think, with the leaders of the crypto industry once again at the White House to try to shore things up. But I don't think it's looking particularly good. Anyone here right before we end? I mean, sitting here with depression and Bitcoin hit 74,000 and we're back to the April lows, I do feel like this move has reached a fever pitch of bearishness that we look for for capitulation. I can tell you anecdotally, sitting here, with my producer, Ryan, and he said he had to explain to his whole family all weekend why they shouldn't sell everything right now at the lows. I had my friend who was a Citadel guy who's
Starting point is 00:58:34 now somewhere else of a similar out saying, hey, Bitcoin trades like shit. I just got into this thing starting at the highs. Like I think I'm done. What are we doing here? There's a lot of it going on. This is starting to feel like a 41% retrace in a after a bull market that didn't even pull a 2x from the highs last time. This may be. or bare market. Listen, if my, listen, Mike, if stock market volatility goes crazy and stock stump, like, look out below, I agree. But if they find a way to, you know, patch a few holes in this ship, for a little while, this could be the lows. What, you hope so, but that's the key thing. If stock, the thing, it doesn't have to go crazy,
Starting point is 00:59:14 just a modest rebound. His story, I remember being in the trading pits in Chicago and with a New Yorker, and one quote from this New York trading person, you know, Mike, stock market, or volatile, is always mean reverting and I'll never forgot that because I made a lot of money on it. Nasdaq 180-day volatility average is around 20, well, 23, 24 percent. Right now it's 15. That's the problem. What you mentioned, all these people who are way overweight cryptos, they're going to lose a lot of wealth that's going to shut off spending. And we even even touch that's just the tip of the iceberg. So I point out, this is so overdue for that. So I point out, this is so overdue for that 50, you know, that 5% long bond. They go to 3%. Maybe it's a trade according to you, James, but I'll take that's
Starting point is 00:59:53 pretty good trade. Once you get past that trade, then you have a lot of other stuff you can buy. On Thursday, you made the best point, the one that I love because all week I was pounding the pavement on why would we get a natural rotation from metals into Bitcoin? That seems to be the coping narrative in the Bitcoin community is that once silver and gold top, everything's going to flow into Bitcoin. And you made the very simple statement, you kind of said what profits, right? Because if this thing falls off a cliff, which it hadn't yet, that money is just destroyed. There's nothing to rotate. And it happened an hour later, right? Last I checked, when silver went down 41%, we didn't see a rotation into Bitcoin.
Starting point is 01:00:29 No, of course not. The rotation, as it were, is when silver gets boring again. Yeah. And that, you go away for that. This isn't a rock and a pond. This is an asteroid in the ocean. Anyone seen any of those movies. I mean, you know, it doesn't go from the biggest single move in a large-cap asset,
Starting point is 01:00:51 like in recorded history, to. to calm, boring. You know, we talk about Bitcoin being boring, and so the people look for other stuff and they look for other narratives and they left. Yeah, okay, that happens. That's a real thing. But you don't leave when you have this massive waves
Starting point is 01:01:09 and incredible volatility out there. So, yeah, you know, that rotation could occur, but it doesn't occur for when it falls. It occurs for when it gets boring. And I think we've got a long way to go for boring. Agreed. Well said. I have not bored. Yep.
Starting point is 01:01:22 Are we not amused? That's the Russell Crow thing, you know. Are you not entertained? Are we not entertained? Or we can say that this vexed is me. I'm terribly vexed. From the same movie equally powerful, quote. Well, we nailed it 10-303-703 for James.
Starting point is 01:01:44 Thank you for, as always, waking up early. My temporary Twitter handle is David Weiss-Buch. 34397. We'll see if that could work. Are you going to come on spaces with Dave Weisbe? Well, no, it says Dave W, but my at is at David Weissboot. We need you on Twitter space. Oh, I'll try to join.
Starting point is 01:02:08 We'll see. And then a bad and hacking keep you off. Yeah, I mean, you know, the whole thing is just, I'm just pissed off. But whatever. Well, okay. Sorry for taking it out and you guys. I'm going to be honest, just as we wrap, I bought $100, Solana, I bought the bottom here on Ethereum, and I definitely bought Bitcoin from 74 to 77,
Starting point is 01:02:29 largely algorithmically, but I also spazzed and did some myself because, listen, if it goes to 50 or 60, great. I'm still making money. I'll still buy more. If it doesn't, great, I bought the lows. And either way, I think I'm going to be fine in a few years. That's all I really care about at this point. So we'll see how it turns out.
Starting point is 01:02:48 Mike, I know you want to yell at me. No, no, but you're trading. You're trading, you're trading Scadion. I'm sure you have some tight stops. Yeah, not so much on somebody. It's not levered. I'm not leveraged. I'm not leveraged, but I'm ready to ride the roller coach.
Starting point is 01:03:05 All right, guys, that's all we got. That was a great macro Monday. The crowd was back. We had 3,000 people here. Sometimes, unfortunately, it just market to dump for people to pay attention. It's sad. But that's what we got. Thank you, Dave, Mike, James.
Starting point is 01:03:17 Dave, I will see you on Crypto Town Hall. Dave Weissbe. Thanks guys Bye

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