The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin & Crypto DUMP! Should We Be Worried?

Episode Date: September 22, 2025

Markets are on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key rate decision after over $1 billion in crypto liquidations rocked traders, stocks slid across the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, and Asia-Pacific markets weakened on China policy uncertainty and new headlines from Visa. At the same time, Trump’s push on TikTok, immigration, and visa policies is adding political pressure, while oil prices climb on supply concerns and gold slips as investors weigh the Fed’s next move. In this livestream, we’ll break down the biggest stories moving global markets and what they mean for crypto, stocks, and commodities this week.

Bitcoin dumped overnight. Altcoins dumped harder. We are back to familiar territory from previous cycles. All while this was happening, gold made a new all-time high above $3,700. Is this a warning? As Mike has been saying, is this yet another leverage flush as I'm sure Dave will be saying, we're going to get into all of that and everything happening in the Macro News for Macro Monday with Dave, Mike and James. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and happy Macro Monday, give the channel a quick subscribe and give the video a quick like as I bring on the gentleman, the gentleman, the unhappy McLaren guys, you know, across the board we got it all we won't talk about the cowboys no they're so good sucking anyways let's not do sports because we'll end up having a macro monday sports podcast for an hour obviously

the story right now is what's happening in the crypto market bitcoin trading below 113 traded down to kind of the low 112s i think maybe even the high 11th's depending where you were looking And once again, this was a monster liquidation flush, which is something that we've seen many, many times. Dave, you are the master of digging into these. I just want to show this is the biggest since the 9th of December, December 2024 on Bitcoin over here. Most longs basically liquidated. And the largest nominal ETH liquidation since May 2021, when price dropped 45% in a single day. Last I checked, at least price didn't drop 45%.

No. And actually, let me share a screen here. Hold on a second. Because there's a- We'll do the morning meeting in a minute. We're going to do liquidations first. Yeah, I think we have to. Can you guys see?

You're showing me? Yeah, I got you. Let me put this in a separate window so I can see what you're actually seeing. I don't know. Why is this not working? We can see it, though. Okay, you can see it. Okay.

So first thing that you have to notice and you look at this screen, And that is Bitcoin was less than $300 million in the liquidation. Ethereum was almost double, not quite, but $500 billion, $500 million out of the liquidation. Others, which does not include Salana, which was almost $100 million, XRP, which was $80 million, Dose which was $60 million, chain link, and all these other ones. Others was $260 million. What is that telling you? That's telling you a few things.

It tells you the bid for Bitcoin is probably bigger. and it was less of a liquidation flush there, more of a liquidation flush in the all-kind market, in the all-kind market. Unfortunately, it's hard for me to, and so that, and put that in perspective, this is total liquidations going back this year, and you see this is the green bar

of the longs being liquidated, and it is almost twice as big as all the other peaks. So what was this? This was a coordinated liquidation cascade, and you can, and I can go through a bunch of charts to show you. I'm gonna see. shockingly. Well, that's what happens on the Sunday. I'm going to describe the anatomy of what this is. And it's funny, I'm writing a letter to the SEC, which I was going to hit the send button on this morning. I now need to rewrite it to include this data, which I will, in terms of oversight. And we can talk. That'll be something we can talk about on crypto town hall. It's more long, long form. But hold on. So let me unshare this screen. And now let me see if I can share this screen. my coin route screen will it let me do it a window assuming the tlDR is that there was a lot of

leverage on really stupid coins well the tlDR is no the tlDR is it was it was it was definitely a liquidation cascade started in eath and done in a few coins simultaneously this was well done so let's talk about what is a liquidation cascade what what happens is in almost every one of these coins whether it's on hyper liquid or in this case mostly looking like actually bi-bit, but it doesn't matter. I mean, where the volumes were. And you can go back and on that same page that Coinglass does, you can see which exchanges had the most liquidations. By-bit, by-far had the most. It was 894 million of, or 874 million of the longs liquidated, more than double Binance at 322. Hyperliquid was actually small. So this was a by-bit liquidation. Now, what does that

mean? Is it by-bit's fault? Absolutely not. What it means is that people, establish, established long, you know, long spot, short perpetual swap positions across a bunch of different crypto and, you know, where the perpetuals are on by bit, slammed the spot at the most illiquid time and waited to buy back the perpetuals at a lower bottom. So as you're slamming the spot down, you, of course, get an average price down, you know, from the high to the low, get somewhere in the middle and where do you buy it back now how do you know this and this is why i'm trying to i want to show another screen let's see if i can get this yeah okay good i can so hold on let me try sharing screen again uh and it's it's okay here we go so this is a coin routes dashboard and

just and we're just going to look at a bunch so you can see bitcoin usdc this is the spot see it's trading you know did did do boring weekend boring weekend all of a sudden look out be row within you know these are all, you know, minute candles, you know, down. And so it goes from 14 to 25 to the bottom to 113, you know, 113, which is a big move. Now, look at Eith. Heath had a spike up, which is weird, but it probably was only just a bullshit, bullshit flush. It went from 4-280 down to 4028, and that's the spot. Now look at the perp, ether perp, 4-280 down to 4.35.

Now, you notice two or three things about this. The first thing you notice is the perps went to the same spot as the spot. Most of the traditional liquidation cascades, the perps go further because they're liquidating on the perp markets because of what was happening on spot. So it generally goes further. It didn't. There's probably a bunch of reasons for this, and most logical of which, is they didn't need to sell below that level. So it kind of went down together.

The second thing you notice is an immediate, as it was happening, an enormous amount of volatility, you see this. I can't really get the cursor to. It's kind of hard to see, Dave. Can you honestly give us the TLDR on it so we can. The TLDR is while those few minutes was happening, there was obviously a liquidation, which pushed down forced liquidations and traders scrambling to try to get to the middle

of that range. And you notice how it went to low, volatility almost immediately after that. If you look at the same thing for Solana, Chainlink, XRP, it's all the same. Smash down immediate recovery back to a small piece of it, back where things were after the liquidations were done, and then low volatility immediately after. So this was clearly, the only other word I can use for it is engineered. And it's the kind of-

He doesn't want to say manipulation, yes. No, I don't mind using the word manipulation. I think that if there were a provincial regulator or a prudential regulator that had perpetual swaps and spot regulation and could do cross regulation, they would do something about this. Now, the interesting thing is in the U.S., you don't even have that. The CFTC does one, the SEC does another, and they can't. And it's well known that if you tried to do this, you'd probably get caught. Who knows which one would deal with it. But this stuff happens.

and what's interesting is it's happened in crypto many, many times almost every single time and I'll let other sloths go through this when you see these liquidation cascades and you see it in the middle of the range of the cascade you end up basing there

for a little while in almost every case with the exception of the sequential force liquidations off of FTX it was a really good time to go along now the problem is that that's the TLDR. That's the TLDR.

So, you know, obviously we still have all the things we're going to talk about in a minute in the economy. All the reasons gold and silver are screaming higher and markets are kind of, you know, meandering higher other than gold and silver. But this is a separate event. And so anyone who looks at this as meaningful, talk to me in three days. If we're at toward the bottom of this range, remember 112 is basically the bottom of the Bitcoin range, 4200, the bottom of the eth range. If we stay here, yeah, there's vulnerability. If we rally off of this, well, okay, so be it. If we crash through here, yeah, it could be a signal.

But honestly, what happens at 4 a.m. or 3 a.m. or whatever frigging time it was in the morning when the U.S. is asleep, you know, in Asia coming into a weekend right before Europe gets in, because I think it was right before, maybe just when they did get in, if that, that is not going to be determinative of the next phase of the market. And that's supposed to be everybody who just, who wasn't here for the last five minutes, the TLDR is by the dip. by the dip Mike Net, which is the great subway to segregate a Mike. Sold to you, my man, sold to you. Gold is up and I have a feeling

Mike might not say buy the dip. So, I have to, what's piss off Dave first? Because it's fun to piss off, Dave. Because Dave, you're so smart and you just rip people apart. I love it when you rip me apart because that's just a hug. So what do you just spent five minutes,

five minutes? It was a waste of time. There's more sellers in 21 million cryptocurrencies, most of which tracked nothing. I got back from London last week. It was so cool to see with people. I know I've known for sometimes four decades who are all wealthy, who trade well. And the sense I got, well, yeah, some of them made some money in cryptos.

Now they're just highly speculative digital assets. And I'm sensing people willing to test shorts now. Now we had this discussion a couple months ago. No, I wasn't even willing. Now I'm sensing people willing to do that because you see what's happening. We're going in the fourth quarter. Everybody knows September is supposed to be going down. So obviously it won't.

It'll go up and then it'll go down later. And we're tilting towards something has something has. something is telling us something that there's something really wrong here, and that's gold. Now, to legitimize gold's 42% rally this year, having a little more weakness in highly volatile cryptocurrencies and a little bit of uptick in the VIX, which is picking up from that low in August around 14, right when Bitcoin peaked, right now VIX is, what, 16? Just getting the VIX to 20 is nothing. Getting the Bitcoin to 100 is nothing.

It's what happens after that. So you're supposed to buy the dip if it gets, I fully expect you're going to get a chance to buy Bitcoin near 100 or a 99. handle before the end year. I fully expect you're going to get a chance to sell the VIX and 20 handle above by the end of year. What happens by the end of years, what matters. To me, this is just starting to roll over now.

And gold is the key thing to put in, you know, one thing I also want to put in context is, you know, the best year in gold since 1979. And let's put that 1979 in context. I was a teenager, gas jockey back then. And I remember, I will never forget, oh, wait, to start selling the price of a gallon a gallon of gasoline and half gallons because none of those analog pumps are configured to go over a buck. So gallon, crude up popped up. We had the Iranian revolution. CPI was running 10%. Stock market had a problem and only went up because inflation pulled it up. And that's what gold's

telling me there's a problem here. So then I tilt over to really what's driving gold. I look at managed money net positions. They are way down from last year's extreme. In futures, there's about 16 million equivalent of longs in gold. That's the Comax futures. Last year, the peak was around 25 million. So they've been selling off. ETFs are just starting kicking. But They're just following that gold rally. They're lagging way behind. Certain if you look trends since 2008. So who's buying?

Some maybe central banks. But it's not showing any of those kind of tilts you usually see that shows an overbought market. So I'll first start with gold. 3,500 is very good support. That was old resistance. 4,000 is good resistance. It's unlikely to trade much higher from here without the stock market giving it fuel by going down. And to me, the macro is the best indication for all that is cryptos.

And they're just starting to give back a little. But right now it's just nothing. It's just going back to 100,000 Bitcoin's nothing. nothing. But then I point out some of the things that have been happening all year. Bitcoin and crypto's have been way underperforming gold. Risk adjusted basis way under performing. And I'll tilt over something to fire up James a little bit. Now we get that 20 plus year index in the U.S. bond index. It's up 5% on the year. And it's just starting to kick in, I think. Well, one of the things, though, Mike, we got to pull apart is back in the 70s and early 80s

was the reason for inflation was what you said, the Iranian revolution. evolution, we had a serious drawdown on the availability of oil in this country. And so energy was way expensive, which is the main component of pretty much everything. Right. So it's different this cycle. It's not different this time. It's different this cycle in that the reason for inflation is because we printed $5 trillion in 2021 in 2022. That's the reason. So it's completely. So it's completely different. So that's why I don't think we can compare this cycle back to the 80s. And we've seen the inflation, you know, charts. And it's kind of like a natural progression of the spike and then the rise again. But yeah, thank you. This is, this is a structural difference from

the 80s, or at least the late 70s, right? Yeah. And this is interesting. Mike, I wanted you to jump in on that, but the follow-up tweet to this from the Kobesi letter, U.S. nominal GDP has grown 54% since the 2020, marking the strongest economic expansion since World War II. This surpasses the 53% growth record from 75 to 78. So just so you know, it was 23% from 2008 to 2014. So basically the economy is on this massive heater experiencing a historic run. But I love the next tweet response to this. Wait, the key word you said there was nominal. Yep. But real GDP did change only 13% since 2019. So the rest must be inflation.

Money printing. Right? Which is asset prices, which is why assets are up and why denominating in dollars conceals a lot. Gold is sniffing that out perfectly. All other financial assets, it's not a question of sniffing it out. It's just a denominator. And that's a very, very important point. I mean, look, you know, when you talk about, when Mike gives his 21 million thing, which is, by the way, unless you've been on Pump.com, dot fund and you know that 98. Plus percent of people lose money in most of them. There's about 100 crypto assets that make up almost all of the trading. I just showed you today, this weekend, they probably flushed out, you know, probably anything but the top 50 got probably really hammered. I'd have to look down, but if I had to guess, I would say there's some much bigger falls. But, you know,

need to look at it. It's not a beta question. Beta is a weird thing. It's a liquidity question. Bitcoin dropped a few percent. You know, Ethereum and the other alts dropped anywhere from seven to, you know, 10 percent. They've all bounced a little bit now, and that's not terribly surprising. But when you see that differential, that's telling you something. Most of those ones, as you say, and you and I agree on this, I mean, you can't wind me up. Most of them are They are valueless. I mean, if you use pointing a million, I mean, it's 99.99% that are valueless. And it's just like NASDAQ in the internet bubble, there were, okay, admittedly, they didn't have a pump dot fund where you could spin up a company still to do a registration

statement or something to have a pink sheet equity. But there were 14,000 companies of which all but probably, you know, 500 to 1,000 in the internet space were valueless. I mean, they were probably a little bit not quite as horrible because you couldn't just stay, you know, in your underwear, in your mom's basement and create an asset. But, you know, it is what it is. And when you look at crypto, I still look at many assets and I say the question, Scott's used to hearing me say this. What the hell is the value of the token? I ask that question all the time. With Bitcoin, I have a resounding answer, which is it's very, very cheap. It's going to be, it's going to surpass gold. With everything else, I have questions. Now, it doesn't mean.

I don't own anything else because I do. I think there are a few you can answer the question. But you just need to understand that most of the stuff is bullshit. And so let's not talk about that. But there's tons of speculation on that bullshit. And this weekend saw a absolute bloodbath in many of those assets that were total speculation. And when you see it, it's sort of like whoever was selling. And it was, by the way, the selling, this isn't, just to put this in perspective,

when we see selling in a normal market, It goes on for hours or days. This happened in three to five minutes. It's not like people had a chance to think about. Oh, I lost money. Maybe I need to sell. The head trader calling down saying, oh, you got to live. No, this was all programmatic.

Boom, done. It was less than five minutes. That is not the same thing. And you need to distinguish that. Now, if it can, these a fall, like if you look, I'm writing a chapter in the book on the 1987 crash right now in my book. And I know what happened. But that felt that that that played out over an hour in the morning and a lot of other crap and then an hour in the afternoon where it was in went into free fall. But these are this is much longer time scales. And anytime you see a crash,

even the flash crash of 2010 played out over 10 minutes. Right. And there it was programmatic. It was very similar. How many people thought the flash crash heralded a major doom event? If they did, got poor. It was, and, and, and, and, and that, so these flash events are not the same thing. Now, that said, you may end up being right in the end, Mike, but this isn't the same. Oh, by the way, one more point. I am so happy to hear you tell me that all the trad-fi guys you're talking to are thinking about shorting now. That makes me so much happier than hearing that they're all bullish and piling it. So much. So I wouldn't call, um, these groups trad-fi. They're just some of the smartest, best trading people I've ever known.

And because they, and here's one entity that told me, I can't mention their name, but very much run institutional money from their boutique. And I've known them for three decades. They jumped in cryptos, they said by five, six years ago and just got out recently because they said it's too speculative. And they, everything they do is, there's things in markets called basis. And that is, when you trade commodities and trade anything that's a number on a screen, there's a basis underlying that.

For instance, I trade treasuries. There's a basis in, I trade futures. There's a basis in treasuries. I trade copper futures. There's a base in the underlying copper. 99% in the cryptos have no basis. Now, crypto dollars do. I'm very bullish crypto dollars.

$300 billion or so, I think that's going to go up. Maybe some of them do. There's gold, but the other 99% have no basis. At some point, they're going to go Poof. And I want to show you a few screen. I think the Poof has started. And yes, yes, I've been early. Gold's can gain that signal.

First, a short little signal. The micro strategy, the leading indicator of this oxymoron of Treasury and Bitcoin in one sentence is rolled over. The 200-day moving average is rolled over. It's bumped up there Friday, and it obviously is going to be much lower by the opening this morning. And one thing is bond, U.S. Treasury bond, you know, so this is the pinnacle of risk assets, it's micro-strategy. And the absolute opposite is the U.S. Treasury long bond. I say this because that's why I started in the trading pits in the 80s. I thought I knew that market better than ever, and I've been wrong about this downward trend.

It looks like it's training back upwards, particularly if cryptos go down. I just want to show you a few little things. This is just my normal little chart where this is a little trade and then you get to the big picture. Bitcoin and Vix. Vix just goes back to 20. Bitcoin goes back to $100,000. And the year, it's a trade. No big deal.

Here's a macro big picture thing. That's something that's never happened. We have U.S. stock market cap to GDP, the highest ever going back. In this case, I'm only going back 50 years. The highest ever, 2.3 times. But then you take gold divided by net. Treasury, Treasury bond and the Treasury Index, I was finally able to go back about 50 years. I have to go back to 1983 how cheap treasuries are.

And then I just show one thing that's pumped me up recently. I've seen Dogecoin jump up to $43 billion. I think that's going to lose a zero. I mean, to me, that's short trying to get going there. And then I just look at my old Bitcoin gold cross. It's just breaking down. It's going to go back to $25. Not a big deal.

It failed at 36. Just what commodities do, this is a classic commodity. It gets people bullish at the upper ender range, gets some bears it. the range and they just trades the range. But the key thing I want to end with is this is the key thing for everything. You have to, if you're bullish, any type of crypto right now, most notably Bitcoin, you have to expect a U.S. stock market to keep appreciating yet on a normal backup, this is 2.3 times GDP. It goes down the back 1.75. That's been a pivot for five years. Not a big deal. And it might be just getting started.

So we talk about the, uh, Bitcoin. Go ahead. Yeah. Well, one of the things, you know, We talk about the 10-year, the long bond, all that. But one of the things that's happening in the 10-year is that we've now heard that the Fed is considering basically a third mandate. And that third mandate is to keep a lid on long-term bond yields. And so that's keeping a lid on the 10-year, the 20-year, and the 30-year on those yields. So that's a that again, that's a structural, another structural issue that has not been there before. We're talking about yield curve control on the U.S. Treasury, which goes to your point, Mike, which you've said a long time, we've all been saying that we're all turning Japanese. We're like, we're headed toward massive money printing to keep these yields down because if you're going to accept.

3% inflation now. What do you think happens 2026, 27, 27, 28? If we don't have a recession, if we don't get that reversion and the stock market crashes, or even if it does crash, we're still going to get the money printing. So it doesn't, there's no way around it. It's not that, again, it's not that the officials, the central banks, it's not that the Fed, the Treasury have learned their lesson, it's that they are absolutely trapped by the math of the situation. And they know it. And that's why they're, they're kind of whispering this out. Hey, you know what? We're close enough to 2% inflation. We're nowhere near 2% inflation. We're 50% higher than 2% inflation. Number one. Number two, yeah, we're buying back bonds because they're illiquid.

You're buying back bonds to keep lids on yields for illiquid securities. Like that's, that's yield curve control, you know? And then when you start leaking that, we're going to make sure that we manage the yields of longer treasuries. Again, that just points to further money printing. So I don't know, I don't know exactly where the stock market goes. Nobody does if we have a Black Swan event or not. but all things being equal here, unless we grind into a recession, there's a reason of 10 years where it is. It's interesting. Another great tweet here.

Current situation, stops are rising like the economy is soaring. Oil prices are falling like a recession. Gold is rising like the Fed is cutting rates into inflation. Bitcoin is falling like Fed rate cuts are postponed. Home prices are rising like more rate cuts are coming. Treasury yields are rising like stagnation has arrived. Good luck. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it is really, a lot of what Mike said is what needs to, people need to understand. There's a lot of cross currents here. So when you look at Bitcoin different than, and you look at the strength of the network, people haven't talked about it. But I will continue to make the point that the total hash rate peaked and is well over.

well, I mean, they're at crazy levels, but, you know, the network itself has been going gangbusters. I mean, about a teeny pullback over the last few days, but it continues to grow. And so, unlike, it's literally the opposite of commodities in the sense, in one sense, in, and I keep making this point, as the price goes up in gold, gold miners find it more economical to dig out more gold and mine more gold, because there's a market. marginal cost of production and the least productive mines, you get more. With oil, obviously, that effect is huge, which is Mike's constant point, which is I totally agree with, which is technology enables you to extract more, cheaper, faster, stronger. With Bitcoin, it is literally the opposite. As the hash rate is basically showing, you know, whatever, it has no impact whatsoever on price because you can't mine anymore. There's the same block reward's

going to happen every 10 minutes that it happens regardless of any of this. What that's showing is strength of the network. And so it's different. And it is indicative of something. Now, with the rest of crypto, all of them, every other coin, including the XRP army, including the hexacons, including all the others, there's none of that. It really isn't. It's a question of, is there going to be a use case and will that use case be passed on to investors? And in many cases, the answer is going to be no and other cancers in other other other examples the answer is going to be yes and we're going to see what that means and so it's a lot more the rest of crypto is a lot like what was going on in the internet at the end of the 90s and I will remind people what happened at the

end of the 90s to today is the vast majority ended up either worthless or acquired by other things the aggregate was up huge because there was a massive technology expansion and value creation, and we now have the MAG 7. We do not have the MAG-14,000. We do not have the MAG-500. We do not have the MAG-100. We have the MAG-7. And keep in mind, crypto is going to look the same way when we look back in 10 years.

So what does that mean? Well, what that means is understand what you're buying, understand what you can buy. And there was a piece of news last week, which is worth talking about, which is the SEC making it easier. You know, it's not done yet, but the SEC making it easier to. create indexes to trade crypto. I'll make one other point back historically, which I made on other shows, but it's relevant here, which is if you bought a basket of the S&P 500 that existed in 1990 and held it for 35 years, you more or less doubled. If you bought the S&P index and held it for 35

years, it went up 3.7 times, so almost double the performance. People know this. Rebalancing as part of indexes is something that's very important for passive investing. The same thing will be true in crypto. And that does not mean that jump into one token and hold it for 20 years. If you do, better be lucky because you know, you got to make sure you hit the right dartboard. So that, all of that matters. But now take all that aside, I'm curious, you know, from a macro perspective, gold and silver being up, markets doing what they're doing, it feels like what happened this weekend was completely idiosyncratic. I'm curious what from your morning meaning because we never talked about it. I mean, what is going on in the macro world? Were you guys actually talking

about crypto this morning or talking about everything else? No one mentioned, but I have to address some of those things. First of all, the Bloomberg, Bloomberg launched a Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index in 2018, partly because McClone said we have to have an index in space. Maybe ETS will track originally. That's probably about when I got on Scott's show. Thank you very much. partly because I've been really bullish and still am, but the things you said were things I said many years ago, oh, definable demand supply, increase in demand adoption. That completely shifted. It's all changed now. That's what thing you have to sometimes market shifts. It's my job to be head of the game. Particularly, you almost never ahead of the game when you have vested money

in the space. You get distorted by that. And I see it so much. And the point I want to make now is we do have unlimited supply now and high correlations in people like Tommy Lee flipping over to things like Ethereum. The space needs a good index situation. track it. I would love to be able to buy it in an ETF someday. We will have that. It might not be Bloomberg Galaxy CryptoLandX via an ETF. But what's shifted now is this, we just got to the point where before it was you should be buying when they're crying and Trump administration helped create that. Thank you very much. And Biden too by pushing back on it. And now you're supposed to sound when you're yelling. And to me, that's starting to kick in. So yes, I'm putting my

spidey senses, a word I learned from Scott into order here. I think the cell signal is kicking in. it's tapping towards that end year. I show you the indications for that. I'm showing the trade. Maybe I'll be wrong. Hopefully for most of the listeners, I'll hope I'm wrong. But I point out the things that have really kept me right this year is that stupid rock is outperforming everything. It's the big picture macro that I'm concerned about. And to me, it's all showing up and I just can't help but going back and studying 1929. I feel very similar potentially happening in cryptos in the last few months. And it's just normal. We have to flush out 90% of this stuff, come to a decent base, which means at least a 50% correction in Bitcoin,

and then we'll have a place to reset. It might take years, but it also might coincide with the U.S. stock market, just doing a normal 50% correction. It's already to be the third time of the century. So I can end there, some of those things. I do agree with, but the thing is, Dave, I flipped. I mean, I've changed. ETFs have been launched, and now it's, we have to,

we pointed out there's a little bit of lack of governance in this space. There's a little bit of, you know, switch it back to the other way. What happens is you see things that shouldn't be happening that make prices go up too much. But I can switch over to the meeting. I just want to put those things in unless you have to want to retort that. Yeah, just one really quick thing is I don't disagree with any of that, really, except for one, which is instead of saying what's a normal correction in price space, do a normal correction in liquidity space.

The fact that Bitcoin volatility is so much lower that the amount of cascade, it went down so much less. It is, I think, extremely relevant, right? The same exact kind of cascade with the same kind of volume in dollar terms caused a fall from 20, you know, basically caused a fall that was quite four times larger than this, no less than two years ago. So, you know, when you say normal 50% volatility, that normal is relative to liquidity available and bids available in the market. A 50% correction in Bitcoin, you know, four years ago, the same causes now might be maybe 12%. I don't know, but it's a lot different. I mean, as I've said to you many times, betas, correlations, and volatility are very, very unstable. And so when you say something has a beta to whatever, I mean, last night, the quote, beta of altcoins to Bitcoin was two and a half to three X.

I have no idea what will happen in the next time. But that actually four years ago, that wasn't the case. They all moved together. Yeah, Bitcoin's a little bit less volatile than some of the crazier alts, but not really to Ethereum, not by this amount, not by three to four X. And so understand these things move. But generally speaking, what you said is true. I'm just saying that what happened in the middle of the night last night is not

this positive. That's really the point that I'm making. That doesn't mean that it can't happen. it means is not dispositive. That's all it means. Anyway, I am curious about what's going on in the global macro project. So Anna Wong, our chief economist said the Fed's reaction functions obviously switched to more dovish.

He thinks that FOMC is penciling another 25 base points cut this year, expecting strong spending retail sales, 0.5% monthly pace of consumption growth, personal income, 310%. So her quote was, how do you score that? expecting she's expecting July and August non-farm payrolls to revise back up, which I thought was quite a profound statement. Personal income growing faster, Friday's report will show 0.310%. She's expecting coming month's CPI will be hot. Use car models, auto dealers passing through higher costs. The baseline for the Fed is to cut only 50 basis points for this year. That's her view. Skip the Ock meeting and go another 25 in December. That's her view. Switching over

Chris Kane are more quantitative-focused equity analysis. It's not much to not liking stocks. He's calling it a small cap jailbreak, small caps breaking out. His quote was, our size is overbought, but that's what's supposed to happen to bull markets. His point was stocks usually do well if inflation is 3% or lower, certainly if there's strong growth. And it's unusual for cutting cycles to cut for cutting cycles since all-time highs.

It's usually good for markets. And then he put out the exception of 2007, which is, one of those things that I'd like to point out. Sure, if you expect when it goes, point out when it goes down, it's okay. But, you know, those of us who did well in those periods. Ira Jersey, his neil-curfocus remained still on the steepener, the steepering curve the bias. He pointed out supply recently has been taken down very recently, very well, I'm sorry.

And our equity strategy, I'm sorry, FX strategy, just Audrey Chilbred from point out to them. She points out lots of dollar bearishness has been pricing. She's been very bearish on the dollar. She's been top of that, and it seems like she's pulling back a little. She's not jumping onto the dollar's bearish next anymore. And your fear is gold just keeps pushing higher. So let me ask some, Mike. So let's go back to Anna Wong, and I do appreciate her work.

I think she's very smart, obviously. But, Mike, or Scott, I just pulled up this, the Bloomberg Fed, future is to show that okay so let's just let's just pull this apart so honest says that they skip this cut which the market is giving a 91% chance that there's going to be a 25 basis point cut in october she says they skip that and only do one in uh in December which they're giving an 87% chance on that meeting alone on top of this one so and she's saying so she's saying because she thinks that job numbers are going to be revised upwards for last month rather than our typical downward revision. And that's why, right? Because we're looking at Friday, we've got the PCE numbers.

And so she thinks that this PCE number comes in at point three. Is that what I heard you say? Yeah. So all things being equal, the reason that she thinks we skip the October cut is because the job market firms up in the eyes of the Fed and because they're data dependent. Is that, is that fair? Yeah, I would agree with that. Hmm. Okay. I mean, she's, she's done a lot more work on the jobs numbers than I, than I do. But again, our issue with the jobs numbers have been continuously over and over and over and over again, which she admits, and I've actually exchanged with her on X about is that we have a problem with the birth death model, you know, and that's the issue.

So if maybe suddenly that changes for the positive for the recent numbers, but that's hard for me to get there. I don't know how she's getting there. I wish I did, but that's interesting. Yeah, I think that all roads point to stagflation right now. I don't know. So even on along the saying CPI is going to go up, right? Mike, that's an inflationary trend, obviously.

We've given up without getting to 2%. We didn't even talk about the Fed meeting, but Powell looked like he'd just done 10 rounds with Tyson and his prime when he walked out there. I mean, the guy was not happy to be where he was. That was ugly, right? I mean, a risk management cut, like, you know, intentionally vague, as always, but basically saying jobs are pretty bad and we're going to give up on inflation. I mean, that's what it sounded like. Yeah, and then, yeah, go ahead.

I was actually, I wanted to frame the question for you, James. It sounded like to a lot of people that there's some stresses in the system that are, that we're not, quote, seeing. And I was curious what you thought about that. Well, I mean, I think what, no, I think what. we're seeing is the Fed worried about exactly what Scott said, stagflation, and they're kind of towing the line here. They're like, we are seeing some evidence that there's not been as strong of a job growth, you know, as we thought. Well, maybe that's because 900,000 fucking thousand jobs were revised out of the numbers last year. That made the reason, you know, whatever. But the,

the other reason is that they keep saying they're fed their data dependent and working for the american people you heard them say that three times in that in that uh presser is that am i right i felt like he said it more than that but i heard at least two i think it was three times he said we're working for the american people well they're in a really tight spot here because they understand that they're normalizing inflation up here at these rates that's that's one key And so, and they're hoping that the job market doesn't fall apart. And so if, if Ana's right, then they did the right thing by cutting 25 basis points and stepping back.

Let's see, you know, but I don't, I mean, this morning, Bostick is saying that he doesn't see any, any reason to cut more gut rates again. We should just hold steady here. So, you know, I guess all things being equal. You know, we're expecting inflation to continue to stay here at the rate to stay here at around 3%, or rise slightly, and for the employment market to stabilize. I mean, nobody knows who full employment is, but we know it's, we have more unemployment than we did last year. That's what we know. Right.

I mean, I also thought something over the weekend that I just thought was one of the most ridiculous things I've seen in a while. but I think it is going to matter. So our New York's favorite talking head, Chuck Schumer, came out, and they're talking about the government shutdown. And it was amazing to me what he said. I mean, absolutely amazing. He, in their Democrat talking points for why they need to do the shutdown said, blamed Trump and what they're doing for inflation.

That's literally what they said. And what they're arguing for is for a billion and a half dollars over the CBO. not a billion and a half, trillion and a half, excuse me, over CBO estimates to extend Obamacare subsidies. Now, let's understand something. I'm not making a statement. I have no force in this race of whether or not we should extend those subsidies or not. It is a, but the question should not, should be, are the, do people need this for their health and what's their access to health care? That is not the statement they made. Because that will be a very, a very reasonable debate that rational people can have do the people in this economy need subsidies for their health care

or they're going to die and i i would find that persuasive and you can argue it you can talk about it either way but that's not what he said somehow he's making the argument that spending another trillion and a half dollars over the over the current estimates is going to somehow help with inflation and so it tells you a couple of things tells me a couple things it says number one The Democrats have no idea what he's talking about. Well, yeah, he has no being obstinate. It's just, it is what it is. I mean, as I said, there is a viable, reasonable argument over health care that has nothing to do with the economy.

And I'm not taking a position on that because, honestly, I think that there's a first principle involved with health care, but let's not go down that rabbit hole. What does matter is the Democrat talking points, they understand they can't afford to be seen as the inflation causers. And they also understand that the public blamed them for the Inflation Reduction Act leading to inflation. And it's called the Inflation Reduction Act, Dave. Exactly. It's ridiculous. What it's telling you is something that is relevant, which is the Fed and where they set their rates is not the causative factor here. The causative factor here is the fiscal deficit.

It's constantly spending more and pumping more money into the economy. I mean, the Fed could have rates at 10%. And if you have this fiscal deficit, which is why we're hearing them talking about keeping a lid on rates. But here's the point. Let's say you use the Fed as your only tool to control inflation. The only way they can control inflation is by crushing aggregate demand and basically squeezing out spending. But what will that do to the federal budget deficit? It'll explode it.

It'll explode it for two reasons. Reason one, obviously, it'll make debt service more expensive. reason two it'll decrease tax receipts so you could make a very good argument that if you want to control the deficit the best thing you can do is to cut rates which by the way is exactly what percent is saying it is literally the argument you could argue both sides of this the question is what's driving inflation aggregate demand by by cheaper money and we all agree that that money is not cheap right now or is inflation being driven by the fact that we're printing more freaking dollars And I think that's what you were you and I come down.

And that, to me, that's where this whole debate doesn't get framed. And of course, when you get these debates, what is? Dave, the question, James, Mike, whatever. If we are not seeing an increase in inflation, if what you just described is true, obviously you can see it in that dollar chart I posted before. I'll try to bring it back up. But I mean, the dollar is having its worst year in decades. That's not just happening.

This is the TLDR. The TLDR is, and to quote, Linole, then nothing stops this train. Right. And it can't. It literally can't unless they get the deficit under control, which means. Which is mathematically not possible right now. Well, yes. But one, I'll keep coming back to two stats, 20 out of the last 25 years.

So it's a very large sample size. We've had negative real rates. Okay. That's crazy. At the correlation between negative rates and inflation in consumer inflation, because of what Mike McGlone always says, which is technology, has radically decreased the cost of extracting energy and producing stuff, that's why. But, so we need to understand that that is a large part of it.

The other part is that we have such a structural deficit that the higher the rate, the more the deficit. And so we do need to understand that. Now, the second point is that that chart that we brought up a few weeks ago, Scott, which says, which on the whole stock market to GDP, Jaws that Mike said, which, by the way, scared the hell out of me, still does, except if corporate profits have been tracking the S&P, what is that telling you? It's telling you that capital has been prioritized over labor, that we've made,

we've had a bipartisan policy for decades to effectively help corporations make more money, per unit of work. And so stock prices should outperform wages, real earnings, and that sort of stuff, which is why we have such a big wealth gas. But it's also why that chart is less threatening to me. I still think that there's a reckoning coming. I can't imagine that we're going to be in a situation where we've outlawed the business cycle and outlawed the investing cycle.

And on that, I agree with Mike. I just don't know when it will be. I loved what you said. You snuck it in there, Mike. but you said something really interesting you said everyone expects to see a crash or things to drop in the fourth quarter and we'll go up and so that means the the crash will be later well i meant september it's everybody you know when you hear me september it's all price and you get short you get stopped the year shorts then you go down so my point is september's ending and now what yeah well i mean you know it the last right when the fiscal book's closed at the end of october is arguably the most dangerous always is always is almost like me talking about the Bitcoin four-year cycle, always twice in our history. We've had two massive events in our history, that's always, both occurring at the end of October for a reason. Are we set up for another one? Maybe I tend to doubt it, but maybe it's certainly

a non-zero chance. And that does matter. And if you think that Powell isn't worried about that because that will be on his watch. Do you imagine a major stock market crash, which is calling the global financial crisis or market crash of 25 happening because at the next Fed meeting, they hold rates steady? Do you imagine what that does to his legacy?

I think he does. Well, you just, I think you did a great job of lining up what Trump is setting up for his plausible denialability. When this happens, because to get through four years of Trump administration without a 20% correction in the stock market that stays down will be just as unlikely as me not dying someday.

It's going to happen. We did have one. It didn't stay down. It was a B-shaped correction, but we did have one. Exactly. That's my point. And it was the thing is it reversed so fast. The signal I got from that is one of the quickest recovers in history is that's the kind of thing you see before the big one.

Obviously, I'm in, here's my indications for that. Gold, waning cryptocurrency performance, waiting performance, the Bloomberg total of the total return, the S&B 500 since 1997. and I want to show you one chart that I think just kicked in. So the Fed just started easing as soon as you can feature this chart. They just started easing. And we're going to be, and based on Fed Fund futures, if you can show it, it looks like it came back. We're going to be at 3% Fed funds this time next year.

It's going to happen. Questions are we going to be lower or we're going to be higher? But in that same scale, and this is Fed just started easy. On the same scale, I like, I just played around with it. I just played S&P 500 turns of balances and gold. The Fed starts easing in 2001. Some of us remember that well, and you want to be long gold-shold S-B-500 takes down. Fed starts easing September 2007.

Some of us remember well. Stock market made a new high a week or two later, and you want to be short that in long-gold. Same thing. They start easing in 2019. You want to be long-gold short to S-B-500. Is it different this time? The gold, S&B-500, turn the balance of gold, has broken down through its enduring pivot since 2006. I'm going with the trade.

Stop me out. Make the market stop me out. Bitcoins continue to go higher. That might be a stopout. If we just continue, I'm afraid now, as you head towards fourth quarter, this whole little thing might accelerate. The only place for you and I disagree is I think Bitcoin's cap is the price of gold, and it will delink from risk assets towards where gold is sooner rather than later after a crash starts.

But I agree with you. I think gold is a more or less pure representation. of the monetary debasement that I've been talking about, whereas stocks are tethered to profitability. And if the Fed believes or comes to the conclusion or they overstep and they overreact and they, or they leave rates too high for too long and aggregate demand drops, what will that mean?

Well, it will mean exactly what you just said? So I know it's much more fun when you and I disagree, but honestly, I don't. I just think that the other thing that people do is more money is made in bear markets than bull markets by buying the stuff that actually matters. And so that's part of what we're trying to do is understand, well, do you want dry powder going into that sort of thing? Yes. And I think that's what all your professional investors are

saying. And do you want to ride that down while it happens with tight stops to the upside? Yeah, maybe all those things are perfectly reasonable. There's nothing wrong with that. That said, I'll continue to point out. You mentioned micro strategy, Scott. You just tilted. I think you'll look micro strategy was at the same price it is today last week right i mean it it's actually performed pretty well uh so far today compared to what you might have expected and and i will tell you why so micro strategy is down 2% bitcoin's down you know a little bit more than that why because the more signs of bitcoin volatility are good for micro strategy and so every time people look at at msterr understand what it is.

It is a company that is they are telling you they deserve a premium to buying Bitcoin because they can make Bitcoin when they sell Bitcoin volatility, when they sell products based on it that are rate dependent. I mean, you can make an argument that the more you cut rates, micro strategy may be one of the most interest rate sensitive companies on the planet because the yield that it can get compared to the yield people will be able to get from the risk-free rate. And that is something that if you really, really do believe that rates are coming down, you know, across the curve, then Micro Strategy

is a great buy here. Now, if you don't believe rates are coming down across the curve and that the long end is going to go up and you're going to end to get, you know, a bigger steepening of the yield curve, then that's absolutely the opposite. So, but do understand that's true. And, James, certainly you've looked at this, right? So let me just, one thing in Micro Strategy, I'll make a prediction. The peak was what? Five hundred. Yeah, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I'm just technically, my analysis thinks it's going back to 120. Okay. That would be the 200, I may almost on the weekly here.

Completely disagree with that. But let me ask you this, Mike. I just shared a screen, Scott, maybe pull this out. What do you make of then? I'm interested to hear what you make of this. What are we looking at? Right here, this is the corporate spreads. Okay, this is corporate spreads to the tenure, meaning if this is going up,

that means that spreads are going. wider and that there's more, that you're being compensated, investors are being compensated for the risk of those corporate treasuries, right? When you see the Fed funds down here is the blue line, the upper bound rate, Fed funds raises rate, the Fed raises rates, corporate spreads blow out. Fed raises rates, corporate spreads blow out. Raises rates, blow out. Raises rates, they've been continually condense consolidating coming down what what do you make of that and and i i have an idea of what i think is going on but what you're missing a big part of that chart first all the scale of the rates should be on a normal scale right and like that a big part of that chart

is what's it doesn't matter me let me point out that when first to in beginning in 2000 and corporate rates spreads peaked when fed funds were bearing on the way down and and Again, in 2008 or so, they peaked right about the time when Fed funds went to zero. But wouldn't you argue, do you think there's no correlation between Fed raising rates and the corporate spreads blowing out? My point is corporate spreads are so narrow now. There's only one little room for the month. Yeah, exactly.

They go up. And Fed's cutting rates to help because they know what potential might be happening, like they started in 2000 and then in 2007, is that tilt towards a recession that hasn't happened for two years. And they're just trying to be ahead of that game. And I think the bottom line is what they should be talking about really what matters the elephant in the room is that stock market has to go up. If it goes down, then there's your recession, there's your corporate rates blown out. It's just a matter of time. I mean, come on, they're narrowest in how long? Is that 25 years? James, can you put the S&P on that chart too?

The reason I ask is because my memory, maybe it's flawed, is that spreads blew out. Yeah. Spreads blew out at the same time market We're getting crushed in every one of those other cases And you see you do see dips right So fed funds goes up spreads blow out market gets crushed Up blowout market gets crushed It happened a little bit here but then this is this is the This is what I'm talking about right here Mike

Right here this is the five trillion dollars that was printed That's what's going on here It's looking for pockets of return. It's looking for pockets of return in corporate. Looking for pockets of return in those seven stocks in the in the S&P. Yep. If you did that person. That's my point.

And it continues that. And these continue to go lower as the Fed, as the Fed just keeps rates here. So the spreads being low and staying low or is basically people stretching for yield. There's always a bid. and there's no fear. Now, does that mean no fear continues? Well, no.

What it means is lots and lots of brush being built up for a fire. That's right. It's something that concerns me for sure. And this is my experience. We're reaching. On Wall Street, it's called reaching for yield. And we're watching it. And every crash that's ever happened happens because you get to a period of

complacency where everybody thinks they're covered, their hedge, they're this, they're that. I mean, as I said, I'm writing about portfolio insurance in the crash of 87. The same thing happened in 2007. We saw all the signs and nobody cared, right, before the GFC started, because that won't happen. Right now, it feels early in this, but that chart should concern everybody. I certainly, it would certainly concern me if I were long corporate debt. I'd be terrified.

Yeah, and Mike, I didn't go, I didn't go out longer on the chart because it gets really noisy in the 70s and 80s. Yeah, I mean, you shouldn't. You shouldn't. Great. But that is something, and I'm with you, Dave. But the reason for it is $201, $5 trillion printed. That's the reason that we see those divergences. And so that's the big print that Larry LaPard wrote about. The problem is he should have published his book in 2019. Now we're going to head towards what. Now we're going to head towards the, the. The normal lesson is the price of time by Edward Chancellor is very similar to the price of tomorrow by Jeff Booth. We always go through deflationary cycles after periods like this. It's happening in China. And I think the next key catalyst for that to happen in this country is the cryptocurrency market,

just having some normal 50% correction and leading everything lower and getting that deflation that we normally get. I hear you, but I think Chancellor's next book is going to be the price of printing. Right. And so keep in life on the print of tomorrow. We got the big print from Larry, and then he's going to come in with the second, you know, installments, which is not the price of time, but the price of printing. Now, here's the fact. The fact is we printed $2 trillion in 2024. We're going to print $1.8 trillion in 2025, and the CBO is predicting we're going to print between $1.5 and $2 trillion every year for the next 10 years.

Just keep printing. So let me, let me, that is why I expect that. the risk off asset gold to continue outperforming the risk on assets led by cryptos for a long period at some point when we get those risk on assets to correct treasury bonds will kick in you'll have that rally that's way overdue some of us have been wrong for too long and then at some point it'll be time to buy when the dust settles and right now all those incations are right there if we get through the next three months mcglom might get stopped up but gold being up 482% on the air and Bitcoin's only 20%, yet Bitcoin trades two to three times of volatility is a poor performing asset.

Listen, I think you can't do it. I can't do it by year. You have to do it from the start of the election in November. Okay. That's the time. Let's not quibble over performance. Let's talk about the words you just used. Gold is not a risk off asset.

Gold is a denominator asset from that printing. And we just said it's going to, we're going to trend two trillion a year. It's going to go up 8% a year every year for the next 10%. years and if it doesn't do that i'll be really surprised it won't do it in a straight line but that's a huge rally you start at when you start getting that kind of compounding returns on gold that's going to happen now the question is what are the assets that will underperform the assets will underperform are the ones that are tethered to earnings that don't keep up because people can't afford them there's a business cycle lots of it the ones that will outperform are the ones that have

some form of speculative reason or story why it could outperform dynamic change AI, Bitcoin because it's going to catch up with gold. Some cryptos where you're claiming you're going to have a new revolutionized financial system. We're going to talk about that on Crypto Town Hall with some people later today. And the ones that are going to absolutely get annihilated are going to be the ones that have no story that makes sense anymore and the bottom drops out. Companies that can't work in an environment, in an inflationary, in a monetary inflationary environment, they can't keep up, ones that are selling to people who just are totally tapped out and have to deal with the business cycle. Companies that get over levered and are truly risk. The fact is markets are

not monolithic. There are many things that are going to happen over the next end years from what you're just saying. It's not pure risk on risk. It's like left versus right. I'm tired of these binaries. It's not a binary. What's missing in 99% of cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin is at least companies have people behind them with innovation and they'll try to to create earnings and the best thing they can. You have Dogecoin. It's created in about a couple minutes and it tracks. Exactly.

So that's my point. We're going to flush that stuff. Like, I'm just reversing my indication from the last five years ago. I mean, we walked through this as Bitcoin. Cryptos, I think, would peak when we had widely disseminating ETFs.

I never, of course, we had the Trump administration kick in. Now I think that's part of the peak. And I think the bottom now is going to come when things like this just wipe it off, flush them out. And that'll be a nice bottom.

And maybe it's starting now. And maybe I'll be wrong. It'll stay. of 100,000. But I must suspect I'll be right. Well, I think the most, the thing that makes me the happiest about the market today is looking at some of, some of the things that are here. So our favorite to beat on fart coin is down 19%. 19%. Frankly, that means there's still 100% to go, but it's 19%. So, you know, it's down to 620 million, which is, I think, 600 million two up.

And so it is, but you're right. But the point that people would make about Doge, which is a really interesting example, is that there is a community of people behind Doge and that there might be certain utility that could come out of it. And I am not going to make that bet one way or another. That is not something that I want to short. I would be much, and by the way, I wouldn't short any of the meme coins either because frankly, they're too damn speculative.

But if you want to get an, if you want to know what's healthy, what's healthy is, seeing, I can't say another way. When the shit starts falling more than the stuff that has value on the downside, and when it rallies, it doesn't outperform on the upside. When that starts happening, that is incredibly bullish. Will it happen? Probably not. It probably will rally more if things rally, but I hope not. It's a question of mob psychology and what's going in. And so I guess that's my point, Mike. I mean, you and I don't disagree conceptually. It's just a question of what? Well, we both learn more from each other.

Audiences learns more from each other when we disagree. And I appreciate that we do it agreeably because it makes both of us better. And I appreciate that from you. Oh, I appreciate that from you as well. And you, I would just like to say, as a final thought, I think all of you are wrong. Perfect. You think part coin is going to a trillion? Fart coin to a trillion.

signal of a new speculative era for stocks, bonds, gold, and everything. Yeah, it's an interesting conversation once again. Bitcoin will be higher next Monday than it was when we started the show today. I do. I think you probably will. I don't know. That's what's a good trade. We'll make a good market.

James, I wanted to talk about strive, but we don't have time. Well, and I can't talk about it anyways, but yeah. Oh, yeah, congratulations, James. they did a good thing. James on the board. Check him out. Look, look. There's his name right there. And I'm not going to, this is the news he can't talk about is the fact that they decided to acquire similar scientific and bought a whole lot of Bitcoin. So I'm just going to say it, not ask you for your comment at all. But I have been saying that a Bitcoin treasury acquisition Paluzza is coming. And you guys may have been the first to do that. Yeah, we were, I mean, yeah, I've been everything for a long time. Before I joined the board, I've been thinking of it. Yeah. Yeah. Obviously, I know securities laws.

James has no comment because we like James on the show and don't like James doing a show from the SPF scale cell. So it's perfect. Awesome. Guys, it's 1006. We ran it over. Amazing show. As always, thank you guys very much. We will see everybody, of course, next week on Macromonday and tomorrow here.

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