The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin DUMPS As Fed Rate Cut Threatens Crypto Rally!

Episode Date: December 11, 2025

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in December but opened the door to potential cuts in early 2026 as economic data softens and recession risks rise. While inflation has cooled faster than expected, Fed officials stressed they need more evidence before easing policy, noting pockets of labor-market weakness and tightening financial conditions. Markets reacted sharply as investors priced in a more dovish trajectory for next year, with traders now expecting multiple cuts if growth continues to slow.

Bitcoin is dumping, even as the Fed cut rates, apparently now threatening our crypto rally because we live in the upside down. Last I checked, it was supposed to be bullish for Bitcoin when rate cuts happened. We got the move up. And then, of course, a move right down afterwards. Jerome Powell was predictably unpredictable. He had some hawkish comments, some doveish comments, took some shots at Trump about jobs. And, of course, was very, very ambiguous about what's coming in the future for more rate cuts.

Markets are all over the place. Luckily, we've got Marcus Thieland here to help us unpack all of it. Let's go. What? is up everybody i hope that you are having a wonderful morning today it is thursday and the talk of the town obviously was the fed yesterday i'm going to dig into that with marcus also his thesis on everything that is happening right now in markets he might be a little more bearish than me i might be a little more bullish still so it should be a good conversation maybe he can convince

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the normal credit card because you can actually collateralize the assets that are in your portfolio. So I highly recommend that you check that out. I'm going to go ahead now and bring on Marcus, who's been patiently waiting in the wings. Good morning, sir. Hey, how are you? How are things? I'm doing great, man. Can't complain. I know that you and I might have some slightly different takes, but I'm very cautious with the market right here. What we got here? Bitcoin 90,000. Went up to about 94, kind of saw a move back. I always joke that, you know, the first reaction of the market to news, like a Fed meeting is usually

wrong. So if I see things go up quickly, I just assume that it's probably like a very quick short and you should see a reset. We kind of just have ended right back. around 90,000. I can't hear Marcus, if you guys can, and he's frozen, but... Sorry. I didn't exactly ask you a direct question. Just kind of your comments on the price action there. Yeah, so I think, you know, the market, of course, now looking, you know, what Powell actually

said, you know, can Powell, you know, really moves the needle here? And it's not just about Powell, right? It's about the committee. And I think that's where a little bit the confusion is. You know, when Powell started to talk, he, of course, was a little bit more sort of like, first of all, he was a little bit more, you know, neutral. And I think over the Q&A session, he turned more and more dovish, really. And I think that surprised a lot of people on the positive side.

And that's why we had this little pump to like 94, especially when he said that the, you know, the labor data has actually overstated right now. You know, there might be like a, you know, difference of like 60,000 jobs, really. So the market actually looked at as, you know, the fat has to cut. But I think then people realized, well, you know, the statement itself was actually quite hawkish because they only expect one more cut next year and then another cut in the following year. So it's almost like they have always been, you know, almost done really with the cutting cycle here. And I think when you look back what happened actually last year in December, I think we had a very

similar environment right now. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, it seems like this is. the first time because Trump has obviously put me around in there and there's some other confusion. There actually is dissent and not so much consensus at the Fed. I would argue that's probably a good thing in general, right? You don't want the whole panel to just blindly agree with the chairman, which is something that sort of, I think, started happening under Volker. It's not a thing in most other countries. You get divided central banks all the time on what they should do with policy

and it's a little less predictable. So, I mean, maybe checks and balances obviously is a good thing, but to your point, I think it just leaves a lot of confusion. I mean, you even look at the articles. You know, you have that one I just had up here, which is a, you know, divided Fed approved third rate cut this year, sees slower pace ahead. Then you jump ahead and you have Bitcoin jumps to 94,000, but hawkish Fed cut threatens crypto rally. And as you said, a lot of the opinion was that he had turned sort of doveish

throughout the conversation, right? So I don't even think people have watched the speech and had the same take necessarily. And here, you know, he's basically admitting 20,000 jobs a month have been lost from able to September. So it's just very mixed data and I think still a lot of confusion. Yeah, but when you look, you know, what happened actually in 2019 and in 2024, right? So just, you know, I mean, it's probably easier to remember what happened last year in December. You know, we also had like this 50 basis point cut in September. We had this massive rally, you know, when Elon Musk started to support Trump in October and then of course Trump was elected in November.

But then sort of like the party was over middle of middle of, middle of, December, and that's exactly when the Fed meeting was, because Powell started to talk a hawkish, because in anticipation of the Trump tariffs. And I think then, of course, the Fed stayed on pause, basically, up until September this year. So we had almost like a nine months, you know, quite pause, which a lot of stuff did happen. That's why I think Bitcoin was more or less in the range, you know, we sold off, we rallied. We, you know, were sort of like nowhere, really. And I think we're a very similar scenario where the Fed has cut now. three times. And yes, the committee is divided. It's good to have a discussion. But at the same time,

I think there is actually some heavy pushback. And I think that's when Powell, and I think he has been flip-flopping a lot. And I think that has been really difficult, I think, for macro investors, for crypto traders, because there is not a long trend, you know, as macro traders, you know, used to be, you know, kind of like a 12 to 18 months trend at least, versus now, it seems like every two months, every three months, things reverse. And I think it's really because of this, you know, Powell, again, he started in a, you know, with a balance view. He started the press conference saying that actually where rates are right now, they're really in a good spot.

We are close to neutral. And that's actually a sign that actually the Fed does need to cut. And that's exactly what actually the statement was saying where, you know, all the Fed members basically agreed upon. But of course, the longer the discussion went on in the Q&A, he became more and more dovish. And I think that's confused people initially. But then the realization is actually, you know,

Powell has only like one vote. It's going to take until the next June meeting, until the new Fed chair is in. But then again, the new Fed chair also needs to build consensus and need to get the votes from everyone else. And, you know, unless really inflation falls off here, which doesn't seem to be the case, even Powell suddenly, like, was assuming it would, you know, it's really like a kind of like a matter of labor, the labor data weakens. And I think that's actually sort of like a worry for risk assets.

Yeah. Let's see what he actually had to say about future cuts because it was pretty ambiguous. that's not the clip I was looking for one second I keep botching it when I share the thing I ended up sharing my screen at the video a rate hike is anybody's base as the next thing is anybody's base case at this point and I'm not hearing that what you what you see is some people feel we should stop here and and that we're at the right place and just wait some people feel like we should cut once or more this year and next year but the but the but the but

But when people are writing down their estimates of policy of where it should go, it is either holding here or cutting a little or cutting them more than a little. So I don't see that as, I don't see the base case as involving that. And of course, you know, a data set of two, now three is not a big data set. But you are right about that. I mean, I guess the good news is they're not saying there's any chance they'll hike. But when you hear the Fed chairman say, some people think we should stay here, some people think we should cut more, some people think we should cut a lot more, we're not sure how

much we should cut and we're thinking about when maybe we should cut. I can see why there be some confusion. Well, you know, as a leader, you need to put a, you know, a strong word forward, right? I mean, you cannot just like, you know, fumble, you know, every time and every meeting. And I think that's really what the market is looking for. I mean, you know, take a stand here. But I think you didn't want to really commit to, you know, to January. But again, I think it's quite unlikely that the committee will cut in January because, again, they are so divided. I think they pushed this hike, this cut through because, you know, the odds were just high, right? We went to like 90% probability.

So everybody was expecting this cut. And then everybody was expecting, actually, that it would be like sort of like a hawkish cut with a pause. And I think we have now around 80% probability that the Fed will stay on pause on, you know, in January. And I think the derivatives market came in actually quite, quite short. So they had people had to cover. I think that's why we had this rally. But of course, we faded out quickly because there's not a lot of money coming into the market. And I think that's really the main concern.

Because even if the Fed would cut, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's really benefiting crypto. I mean, in the past, it did because there was a lot of retail investors. But this time, you know, there's just not a lot of retail investors around. And I think it's institutions, which is trading a lot more carefully here, especially as we get closer to the Christmas holidays. Okay. So you sent me a bunch of charts. So I think we should go through them because I think right now probably zooming out and looking at the market is the most interesting conversation. We have these endless debates about the four-year cycle or where we stand about liquidity, all these things.

You have a pretty strong set of charts here that I think give you a, and obviously as a researcher, they give you a pretty strong premise. So just let me know when you want me to move through them, but we start here with Bitcoin's Broken's 2023 bull market channel. Yeah. So that's really, really, the bull market. You know, we have been, you know, looking at really the last, well, a couple of years really now, right? came from like 20,000 rallied. But now we're really in this bull channel and we broke the bull channel. We are now at the lower end and we're trying to break back in, but we're failing. And I think that's kind of like, you know, the key risky. And I think that's why the market has lost momentum. But when you look at the next chart, you know, the Bitcoin ETFs actually have rolled in a lot less

money than than a year ago. So last year we raised almost like $34 billion. But this year, it's only like $22 billion. And I think that's quite interesting how. how actually there's not a lot of money coming in. And, you know, when you look carefully, we actually, we started to peek out a lot earlier in the year. And it's precisely because of the October FOMC meeting where Powell indicated that the next meeting might actually not be a cut. Of course, we have gotten now the cut. But it was really when sort of like the, you know, the big institutional Walter investors, you know, dialed back their buying of Bitcoin ETF, despite all this approval from, you know, vanguards and so on.

the mortgage Stanley's private wealth management and I think you know Bank of America you know suggesting investors should have 4% of their assets in digital assets really but I think the interesting aspect is really that we you know we started the year relatively slow because of the Trump tariff hiccup and then you know we didn't really push through and I think that's kind of like an indication but then you look at the next chart which I think where we look at more at the end up the ETF inflow interesting because you can kind of see that 2025 was actually leading, you know. It really had a nice move up until, as you said, kind of in September and October, then predictably, I guess, you know, when we drew down from

125 to 80, we saw the inflows echo that. But, you know, last, when you look at last fall, it was pretty parabolic there. Yeah. And when we look at when we look at the actual on-chain data, you can see how much money actually has come into Bitcoin. So obviously, we need more and more money to push prices higher, especially as the market cap increases. But so far in December, we are actually losing very small. But I think it's the first time since August 2023 that we're actually seeing for the first time net outflows. There's net selling. And of course, that explains why we're down here.

But you can see even a year ago in December and in November, we had like these $80, 79 billion of inflows and that was really what pushed bitcoin to a hundred thousand and then even this summer with a genius act we had another 63 billion but now you know last month was only 11 billion and you know the slower the inflows are the less upside pressure there is and i think unless we really get more inflows the market is not going to turn around so even if the fat cuts the actual inflows that's really what counts it's not really macro liquidity it's not money supply is the actual data we can see on on chain, and that's not really accelerating right now. Okay.

And when we look at, you know, yeah, have considerably slowed down. I actually find a bit of this data, like, surprising, I guess, anecdotally, it just didn't feel like it, but it's pretty clear when you look at it. Yeah, it's, it's really unfortunate. I mean, we just have to, you know, of course, we all want the market to go up. We all in crypto, you know, we all, of course, into the ethic about it. But, you know, when you just look at the same data, they're really on a 30-day rolling basis,

you can really see the big pumps. And when the, when the pumps stopped and then, you know, the music. unfortunately stopped. And I think we can actually make an argument that actually in July, sort of like the market peak, because that's when the inflows peak. And now the influx, I just like, you clarify what this chart is showing, inflows into Bitcoin, because this isn't the ETF products, which we just looked at before. Is this really just Bitcoin buying? Yeah, this is on-chain, right? This is like, this is on-chain data that we can look at the realized cap and it really aggregates the data and it shows it quite clearly that right now

not a lot of money is coming in. So really, unless this data picks up, we're in the consolidation mode. And that's exactly, I think, where we're struggling with this bull channel in the first chart. So unless you really break back into the bull channel, you know, I would stay on the sidelines. I would stay conservative.

You know, we have been recommending a lot of like options selling just to harvest some yield to make some returns. and I think especially into a year end, no lot of stuff is happening. And, you know, implied world was relatively high. So money is to be made, but it's just tactical trading right now and not just, you know, long-term holding right now. So I want to present somebody who maybe is taking the opposite side.

I have a video here from Tom Lee, who we know is the Megabole. I don't think he could be deterrent of anything in the world with any evidence. But this is what he had to say. And this actually aligns very well with what Raoul Paul has been saying. for kind of years about the business cycles and such. But let's just see what Tom Lee said. I would love your opinion. 2026 is a year like there's a new Fed, right?

But a dovish tilt. And at a time when the ISM has been below 50 for a record more than three years. So that's really good for small caps. And as Barry says, if they deregulate banking, and we were talking about this offline, that's really good for small caps. But that's also really good for small caps.

But that's also really good for the business cycle. And we've talked about this in some of our past research. Crypto prices are really sensitive to the ISM. So the ISM moving back above 50 has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum. ISM going into expansion territory is positive for Bitcoin? Correct. Interesting.

Yeah. And so if you look at ISM and Bitcoin and you detrend Bitcoin, essentially look at its distance from the 200, it's almost perfect. correlates to the ISM. Surprising. And same thing with copper to gold prices. So copper is an industrial metal versus gold. Right, but all of that tells you that it's basically just risk on, that they're all behaving like an economy.

And is that, am I over characterizing it? Yeah, I think that's right. I think Bitcoin's a bit of a chameleon because there'll probably be a time when it acts like gold, but right now it acts a lot more like it's sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle. And both are about to turn up. So that would mean anybody who thinks the Bitcoin four-year cycle means crypto prices are down next year. We're betting against that thinking that new highs come. I mean, there it is really at the end, right?

But, okay, so long story short, ISM is manufacturing, right? You wouldn't necessarily think that that's correlated, but I think it gives you signals maybe of where liquidity is. And what they're saying here is that a hell of a lot of liquidity is going to come in. They think next year, four-year cycle is dead, and that can continue to push the price. of these assets. Well, as you said, you know, some market commentators have said for a couple of years now that the ISM should rebound. It's usually very cyclical.

It has been, you know, on the floor here for the last, you know, two to three years. You know, is it really going to pick up because there has been some rate cuts, some expectations? I think it's difficult to see because the economy seems to be just driven by a couple of companies that are not really part of the manufacturing base per se, right? It's all more like services driven. It's all tech driven. So, and I think, you know, you can make a, you know, a different argument really why the four-year cycle is actually, you know, alive.

And, you know, and so I wouldn't really, you know, believe it that that Bitcoin is like so correlated to the ISM. We actually looked at it more really on a rate of change basis of the ISM. So, you know, how did the ISM, not at the absolute level that a lot of people look at, but how did the ISM actually improve from a year ago? And that has actually tracked quite well the Bitcoin cycles. But of course, suddenly the data point doesn't really work over the last kind of two, three years because we are so at the low here. And I think it's probably also indicated that the economy is no longer really like capital, you know, fixed capital, you know, spending really driven, rather more tech, right?

I mean, you don't need, you know, you don't need to borrow a lot of money to build a factory and nobody really builds a factory except data. does really. But I think the economy has changed. And, you know, manufacturing only, I think it's like 10, 15 percent of the U.S. economy versus the rest is really all services. So I think it's the wrong metric. I really look at more that the four-year cycle is actually alive from the simple fact is that it's not about the halving. It's more about the midterm elections. And that's usually when stock market tends to struggle and consolidate. And that's kind of our big thesis. And I think when you look at that Bitcoin broke the 12 months moving average for the first time really since this bull market started, we are actually right on time of this metric to

be valid really. And I think it's not so easy. Of course, some people always find something positive to say, right, even if there's a nuclear winter, the world would blow up. I mean, there's always something positive because then there's always Mars to go to and everything. So I think it's just very, very difficult and a little bit, you know, I think, you know, a misconception and just that everything is bullish all the time, right? Yeah, there's some strange, kind of a lot of nuance there to how you unpack that, right? So first there's the is the four-year cycle intact, but I guess more importantly is the conversation of what is the four-year cycle at this point, as you just said, right?

Because it was always the halving cycle for the first few, but we all know that the having is a rounding era and if anything is self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. I mean, Michael Saylor buys more Bitcoin in a week than the halving probably affects in a year, right? So was the four-year cycle always about elections because, you know, you usually get the halving in the spring and then the presidential election in the fall, right? And you've seen those cycles long before Bitcoin existed, or is it actually this business and liquidity cycle? And so if it is those things, perhaps you would think that we could get a ramp up in 2026, but that is assuming that you get a ramp up, as you said, in ISM. or in liquidity. So, like, what if ISM just stays flat for another year?

Like, I guess they're just defaulting to it's got to go up because it's been low, but we all know that any indicator in markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Well, it has not gone up. And I think, you know, I personally always looked at the, you know, that is driven by the four-year cycle, is driven by the halving. I think it's a misconception because the halving kind of moved around in the year. It's not really clear, you know, when the market should peak or when it topped.

But it's very clear when you look at, you know, when the market peaked, let's say, 2013, which was in December. When you look at when the market peaked in 2017, it was in December. When you look at when the market peaked in 2021, it was in November. So now we are sort of like in October. So it's always like Q4 really, versus the halving has actually becoming like closer, you know, from the end of the year to the early of the year. Of course, it depends on the block rewards and everything.

But it's not really like a constant versus the previous peaks. They have always been in the constant in the Q4 with a tendency to sort of like in the December area. And that really, I think, aligns quite well with when we come then into the new year. And the new year is really where historically the S&P has literally gone sideways from January until October. because there is this uncertainty that the sitting president's party is going to lose a lot of seats. And I think that's also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the house. And therefore, maybe he's not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore. And I think that's where kind of like we, you know, peak out here right now because we sort of like

drop below the 12 months moving average. And that's sort of like the sign that has always actually happened into all these. bare market. So of course, you need to correct. But I think that's really, you know, I think it just aligns almost like perfectly. I'm not saying we go down 80%, but I do think we're going to consolidate for a bit longer than people are expecting. Yeah, I don't buy the 80% drawdown. I mean, we need to get that kind of upside. I don't see why I would get that kind of downside, just rationally, right? I mean, if the argument is that volatility has dampened, even your bare market should be 30 to 50% instead of 75 to 80, we, we need to, we, we

didn't even get a 2x from the previous all-time high to the upside if we believe the top is in. Yeah, I mean, we have already gone down, you know, 30%. And of course, around like, you know, 70K, there's a lot of support. So, you know, we were already at 80. So it's not actually too much downside. But it's unfortunately a little bit where we need to look at the real money that's really coming into the market, right? And we can, of course, look at market structure. We can look at, you know, volumes. Is retail involved or who is buying? But, you know, we all know that, you know, if Wall Street, these institutions are the main driver of these ETFs, for example, I mean, they're going to wind down a little bit the business going into the holidays.

I mean, nobody's going to YOLO in a billion dollars now just before Christmas and then go, you know, two weeks on a ski holiday to Aspen or Whistler or something. So they'd rather wait for next year. And I think that's where we come into the period where volatility is going to get crushed. I think we're seeing this already now after the FMC meeting. So selling sort of like the rangers, selling, you know, the hundred. K or sort of like the, you know, the 80K put, you know, that's sort of like, I think the strategy that we were pursuing here because we expect actually that Bitcoin is going to stay in the

range and, you know, and not much is going to happen until the end with this catalyst now out of the way. In an effort to be less depressing, let's talk about potential catalysts that could change your thesis or move things around, right? Because, I mean, we all obviously can be forward looking. We can use the data that we have, but in this market, we've seen things rapidly change. the approval of the ETF, obviously sent Bitcoin to an all-time high much earlier than anyone would have expected in a cycle if you believe in it. We have, I would say, potentially the Clarity Act

coming, although odds of that happening, I would say diminished by the day as we come into midterm season. I think it's still a priority and should happen. I mean, this one was put on my radar. U.S. lawmakers sent a formal letter to the SEC urging them to implement President Trump's new executive order. The one that opens up the 12th. 12.5 trillion 401k retirement market to crypto and alternative assets. I mean, do you think that that could be a potential catalyst, any of these unlocks and flows, right? PNC Bank now partnering with Coinbase to offer crypto services to their clients, like are, you know, Vanguard coming online and allowing UTFs after saying they never would. Do any of these, like could any of these

be the thing that sparks it? Yeah, as you said, the market can actually change, you know, quite quickly. And I think that's how the market has changed compared to previous years. I think you really need to focus on the market, you need to follow it every day because you don't want to miss it, right? And I think we have seen this, you know, in this cycle, you know, if you would have been out of the market or have not caught some of these quick rallies, these quick pumps, you know, I think then you missed a lot of the returns. And I think that's kind of like how we need to look at it. You know, we have the market structure bill, you know, still coming. You know, people want to invest, but maybe not before Christmas. Maybe they're waiting for it for

the new year. And then I think the, so the game starts. I think we're going to get a lot of data really on the labor market. So what's also interesting is, you know, the U.S. labor unemployment rate is sort of like above the 12 months moving average for now, you know, almost like two years now. And historically, we always have seen a ramp up and that has always been followed by a recession. Of course, a recession would not be great. And then that's not really the base case scenario. But of course, then we're going to get a lot more stimulus, a lot more liquidity.

You know, we're doing some sort of like, you know, soft QE. Some people are talking at now the 40 billion of, you know, bills buying that the Fed is going to do. Of course, bills buying is not QE. It's really more in the longer end, the 10 year, the 30 year. But it's a toe in the water here, right? And historically, you know, the TGA, the Treasury General account usually takes around like two months before Bitcoin has really reacted. I think that's what we saw when it started to release liquidity in February this year. But then Bitcoin only bottomed in April.

So maybe if they're going to start now releasing it, we're going to see, you know, some trigger there. We also, of course, have in January, potentially another government shut down. And I think the interesting aspect that nobody really talks about is that in July this year, we got the, you know, big, beautiful bill, the $5 trillion debt ceiling increased. But we have already depleted 42% of that amount of money. So a lot of money has already been spent. And at one point, the market will wake up and say, like, hey, I rather want to. an alternative asset, and I think that's when Bitcoin can shine. But of course, it's anybody

guess when this is going to happen. That all makes sense. Is there anything else on your radar that I might have missed here? We cook through your charts, obviously. This actually is what I want to ask you. So what does it all mean for altcoins? Obviously, if you have a bearish tilt, you can't be particularly bullish on all coins. I think we know that. Because even when people have been bullish on Bitcoin, it's been hard to be bullish on all coins. But is there any catalyst you see? I mean, clarity, I think, could be a catalyst if we get that specific clarity on a lot of these all coins. I mean, you have Paul Atkins, the chair of the SEC, literally saying he doesn't think these things are securities unless they're tokenized versions of securities. We're seeing some chatter, but like what that means for token 73 on coin market cap, I have no idea.

Well, we have around $59 billion U.S. dollars of unlocks per year in the Alcorn space. I think a lot of VC investors from the last cycle to cycle before, you know, their LPs, you know, they want to redeem some money. So I think that's why we have always some headwinds there. And of course, we know that retail is not really the driving forces cycle. It's more Wall Street. And Wall Street is really buying Bitcoin and, as, you know, we know now buying Ethereum since the summer to, you know, to some vehicles.

I'm, you know, more bullish on B&B, you know, simply because I think it's a great play for the ecosystem. I think Binance is probably, I would actually favor B&B over Ethereum because I think it's actually has a better ecosystem. I think it's going to spin out more companies. I think you get actually around

10% yield. If you participate with some of the launch pet tokens which you can do as a B&B holder. So if I would do hold one Alcoin, it's probably B&B because it's one of the large cap ones. And I think it has a lot more potential. Also from a yield generating

perspective. So it's not that the space is dead. I think a lot of stuff can be done. You know, volatility can be sold, especially, again, if it's a smart way. And I think we have seen a lot of activity in action actually in the crypto stock. So I think a lot of IPOs are coming. And I think that's not going to go away. And I think we have seen how, you know, how Circle attracted so much money. I wish there would be some some other IPOs really, you know, being out late right now. I think Bracken's coming. I think Gemini's likely. I mean, well, they did.

Yeah. So, I mean, I think there's going to be quite a few with time. I think that you kind of had this early wave and they were so good. E. Toro out of nowhere, bullish, like companies that maybe people wouldn't have even expected to do so particularly well after. And then with Circle, I actually made the joke repeatedly on my show that that was alt season. It was like IPOs in public markets or anything crypto adjacent in public markets was like the alt-season. was like the alt seasons of the past because the money pool is different.

It's tradify money that's moving Bitcoin. That money doesn't trickle down to your random alt coin, right? But it can trickle down to some other riskier crypto-adjacent asset in public markets. And so I think that we saw that, right? Miners would be kind of

was one huge, like, you know, move, I won't call it a bubble because they've performed well, but all the IPOs or the exchange stocks and everything. So I just think that that's where the money is playing right now. Yeah, I think that's actually an excellent point because we can actually look at the the U.S. equity buying from Korean investors. So we have seen that Koreans, I think they bought like $1.5 billion of bitmine. So of course, it helps that there is some link, you know, if there's Tom Lee

into Korea, you know, to attract really some of the capital. But they have also, you know, they have bought iron energy. They have bought, you know, circle. You know, they have been a big investment. before in micro strategy. So we're seeing these flows from Korean investors. And yes, as you said, traditionally, they used to be very big in alcoins, but I think the market has moved a little bit more to the stock market. So the stock arena just needs to have more crypto companies. And we can trade those as well. I think there's a lot of stories, a lot of trades can be done. And the market is, you know, liquid. I mean, even Robin Hood falls into this category. And all these companies are expanding and attracting a lot of capital. I mean, remember, like, Robin Hood used to be like

at $10, you know, three years ago. It's crazy. The move on Robin Hood's crazy, but I think justified, right? Because if you view them as Charles Schwab of the future for this next generation, then it makes a lot of sense that they were wildly underpriced, especially because their revenue generally supports it. I love the point about South Korea. I was unaware of it. But I don't think people realize how much of crypto speculative volume comes from Asia in general, but South Korea specifically. Like the disproportionate amount of volume and trading that is pushed from that country is absolutely. insane. I didn't realize that they had access to the public markets in that way and that you were tracking it, but that really, really supports my theory and gives me a lot more faith that I'm correct there. Next time, I'll bring you some charts, but I give you just one data point. So the Korean stock market, all Korean stocks, you know, Samsung Electronics, the largest one, they trade 15 billion dollars a day, 15 U.S. billion U.S. dollars a day. But last year, at one point, the crypto markets in Korea, So, you know, Upbit, for example, and, you know, all these other crypto exchanges traded 25 billion at one point.

So crypto market traded 50% more than all the stocks. That was at one point last year. So that's how crazy it is. Doesn't surprise me. And they're on heavy leverage, too. I wonder how much like the events of October 10th and such affect volumes like that. When you see 19 billion in liquidations in a single day, 19.2, whatever the number was. And apparently 1.1 million individual accounts liquidated.

You've got to imagine that that puts it down. and that risk appetite, or at least who has the capital to do it. Really crazy. Really crazy. Anything else, Markis, before I let you go? You know, that's it. I think, you know, we started to look a little bit more at, you know, poorly market at these, you know, betting markets because, you know,

they have raised $3 billion, you know, among them in Kaltje. It was the last couple of weeks. I think they're listing more crypto products. So maybe that's sort of like a niche. You know, we come out with some ideas there. So I think there's always something to do, right? I mean, the whole thing is that crypto is never boring. I think there's always something, you know, cooking in the background.

We just have to find these gems. Yeah, totally agree. Thanks for your perspective. I love it's very balanced, very data-based as usual, I guess, you know, as a researcher, that makes a lot of sense. And I love when people have strong opinions, but they're loosely held. They're willing, obviously, to pivot and make a change. So, yeah, that's it.

Thank you, guys. You can give Marcus a follow his Twitter is right down on the description and obviously check out 10x research otherwise i will be back tomorrow for the friday five with nlw and of course hosting crypto town hall on x spaces at 1015 marcus thank you very much deeply appreciate you being here hopefully we'll do this again soon everybody else we will see you Tomorrow. Peace.