The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Explodes! What Should You Do Next In The New Bull Market?

Episode Date: October 24, 2023

Bitcoin reached $35K before the correction yesterday on the optimism of the upcoming ETF approval. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, and John Wick, analyst and trader will provide their opinions on what happened with the Bitcoin price and what else we can expect.  Matthew Sigel: https://twitter.com/matthew_sigel John Wick: https://twitter.com/ZeroHedge_ ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA - Ready to trade like the pros? The best traders in crypto are relying on these indicators to make trades. Use code ‘2MonthsOff’ when visiting my link. 👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin absolutely exploded since the last stream. Yesterday, we were so impressed that it was around $30,000, $31,000. And then seemingly within a matter of moments yesterday, it took the rocket ship up to as high as $35,000. What is going on? Why is Bitcoin skyrocketing? And should we take any deep meaning in the fact that some altcoins actually seem to be following this time? Is this time any different? Are we back in a bull market? I've got two amazing guests to discuss this with today. I've got Matt Fucigo from VanEck. You want to talk ETFs, this is definitely one of your guys. And I've got Wick on the back edge to share some charts and trades for us to look at on the back end. Let's go. Not because I'm euphoric or FOMOing, just because, man, it's been a long time and it feels good

to have those moments where we get these massive green god candles to the upside. And for me, it was also nice to see some movement in the altcoin market. As a result, you guys are funny. FPL wannabe said, Scott is busy taking profits. I'm not going to lie. It wasn't Bitcoin or ETH, but about four minutes ago, I was selling something. I did take some profit in a few altcoins that went massively up to the upside, but we're talking about 10 to 20% of positions, certainly not exiting things right as things might be getting going, but always good to

take profits when you see those big candles. I'll tell you the other thing that I am mega uber long right now is TLT. And yesterday I started aggressively scaling into bonds. And then 15 minutes later, Bill Ackman sent a tweet saying that he was covering his shorts on his bonds. And I made me feel really good, like I was on the right side. But then again, it made me feel like maybe I was getting played and I was going to be on the wrong side of a contrarian play there. But none of that is either here nor there. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Matthew now. VanEck is a huge part of this Bitcoin spot ETF hype, Ethereum ETF hype, Ethereum futures ETF hype. Is that why the market is moving right now?

I think it is, Scott. I mean, I was looking at all the charts also in the last couple of days, and what I noticed was that yesterday was the highest spot volume day in crypto since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, $30 billion yesterday across 200 exchanges. That's three times the daily average volume of the last three, four months. Bitcoin ETFs saw $43 million in inflows just yesterday, which is 10% of the year to date total. Whoa, 10% of the entire year. You're talking about into the Bitcoin futures ETFs, Valkyrie, BNB. Yeah, all the various products that are out there. So it does look like this was a spot-driven market yesterday. I know that open interest has ticked higher, funding rates are higher, but the spot to futures ratio increased. Bitcoin dominance now at 51% continues to rise sharply. So I think this

is most of all a spot driven market on the news that BlackRock has a ticker for their Bitcoin ETF. Right. So what's interesting, we saw obviously the fake news pump last week, right? Everybody was, we were literally live on Monday. It was a pretty exciting hour. It was 28 when we started, 30 in the middle, and 28 when we ended the stream because of the perfect diary of being here at this moment. I think a lot of people thought, uh-oh, that was going to be a top. It was interesting watching price continue to push back up through those levels throughout the week. And like I said, yesterday, we were back above that kind of trading 31, pushing towards a new yearly high. What do you make of the fact that we made that

move all the way from 28 up to 31 before that BlackRock news? I tweeted about that news, by the way. If people are curious, I'll just give you the quick summary so you guys understand what we're talking about, because it was right after this news that we saw the move to 34, 35 very quickly. Effectively, BlackRock has taken the next step, I guess we can call it. And Matthew, perhaps you can clarify the next step in preparing to launch an ETF. That means that they've got a ticker now with DTCC, the Depository Trust and Clearing Company. The ticker will be IBTZ. And as a part of this, I think the part that got everyone excited, whether rightfully or not, is that usually that means that there's going to be a seed creation basket for this ETF, aka they're going to start

buying. This is not unique to Bitcoin, whatever the ETF is. They're going to start buying or have started buying the underlying asset in preparation for offering that product. That could be a half a Bitcoin for all we know. But it is an indication that we're seeing them stepping up their game, preparing. It seems that whether they're going to get approved or not, that BlackRock is planning to be approved. They believe they're going to be approved. So that means they're going to have to start buying some Bitcoin. Yeah. You could tell from Gensler's body language in recent interviews where he basically punted it to the rest of the SEC. There's a lot of operational details behind the scenes from the various divisions of the SEC that have to go through this paperwork, proposed changes, market update. These are outside of Gary Gensler's individual opinion, and that process does appear to be moving forward. Okay. So we know what BlackRock's doing, obviously, but they're not the only ones, and they're certainly not the first ones. You guys maybe could take part of that title. So VanEck has obviously been in the ETF market for ages and one of the first

to really be pushing the narrative that we should get Bitcoin spot ETFs, Bitcoin futures ETFs, everything. Where does VanEck now stand in this process? Are you also going to now be looking to get a ticker and seed this? What's everyone else doing? We're in line waiting for the agency to push the paper around. And we're hopeful that all these products will go live and effective at the same time. But that's a big question mark, which is out of our control. So what we can control is that we've got $77 billion in assets and only 500 million of that is in crypto. And we expect that number to grow over time. So we're not getting cute about shorting coins and taking counterparty risk. We're long only

investors. We're taking our clients' money and putting it to work in the best risk reward situations that we can find right now. And Bitcoin is one of them. Yeah. So do you have an expectation? I think the consensus is that we'll see an approval of a number of these ETS at the same time. That could or could not happen, as you said. But do you have an idea in the current market how much AUM ballpark we would see in the first weeks, months of this approval? We have BITO, I guess, as a bit of an example,

very quickly did a billion dollars, I think under 72 hours. I think that actually surprised a lot of people, but that was peak bull market euphoria when it happened. And so maybe this time is a bit different. My assumption is that a BlackRock doesn't launch an ETF and hope they land 50 million in AUM. There's a plan here. But better question, what would you consider a successful first week or month for these approvals as far as AUM or a complete failure? Yeah, I'd say any ETF that launches and manages to get a billion dollars in the first week is a success, period. And then when you take our price expectations for Bitcoin, I think we would expect $10 billion in spot ETF AUM within one year. And anything less than 100 million on day one, or the first three or four days, would be a disappointment to me.

Robert Leonardus Does it surprise you that the ETH futures ETFs did so poorly in that context? Jason Lowery I mean, the futures-based products are substandard. There's a lot of additional costs. You're paying the cost to roll these future contracts. They are pretty much destined to underperform the spot products in a bull market. So those are placeholder products, I would say. It's sort of funny I alluded to the fact that BITO launched into a raging bull market sort of at the top. And a few days ago, I would have said, man, this is a bad time to launch an ETF. It's a bear market. But maybe not if we're seeing price

rising this hard and this fast. I mean, it doesn't really matter, I think, where the price ends up. But I think that we just got a very, very clear green light that there's a hell of a lot of people waiting on the sidelines are excited for this to happen. And I guess more importantly, that they truly believe it's going to and maybe are trying to front run it. Yeah, I think that's spot on. I mean, another indication of the optimism around simply the Bitcoin hash rate, which continues to explode, right? It's almost a double this year. It's having the side effect of eroding miner profitability. So there's a number of similarities here between late 2019, I think. One is the Bitcoin dominance rising sharply. And another is the divergence between the Bitcoin price and the miners, right? So we've got

a lot much bigger sample size on Bitcoin miners this time around because many more are public. But they're up 4% in the last month, right? BTC is up 18%, 19%. And what we can see by watching these stocks is that it's the low cost of production, debt-free miners like Cypher and Riot that have been outperforming. And it's the high cost miners with debt that have been underperforming. So most Bitcoin miners now are no longer selling more than 100% of their coins like they were in the first half of this year because their balance sheets are much improved. They've been restructured. And mining machines also look really cheap relative to the Bitcoin price.

So I think Bitcoin miners, given the volatility in the space and given the differentiation between those equities right now, that it's a really fertile hunting ground for alpha. So in other words, perhaps the miners are lagging and there's an opportunity there, but you have to choose the right ones. Because we all know that when the halving comes, that puts actually a lot of stress on miners. So you have to be well positioned as a miner with newer machines and lower costs to be able to actually suffer through the reduction in supply. So are the names that you just mentioned, the ones that because they're low cost and they're effectively the most efficient,

are maybe the ones worth looking at even through the having next year? Yeah. So I think there's some miners that you can look to hold through the cycle, as long as they are completely debt-free and have a low cost of production. And then there's others that you really might want to buy right after the halving when everything dumps. But those aren't the ones that you want to own throughout the cycle. And what's really interesting this time around is that there's a dozen of these stocks. So you've got a lot of movements to play with and given the volatility of the space, a lot of alpha. But yeah, basically, I agree with your conclusion. I haven't taken a look at all at the machines. And you just actually mentioned the ASICs

being extremely cheap. I know that they were like, we went from $20,000 for a miner to like $1,500 or something at one point I had checked. Have they come off that floor or are they still exceptionally cheap? They're pretty much right at the all-time lows still. So very cheap. So what does that tell us? I mean, shouldn't we all be... Well, we do have the halving coming, so it's going to be increasingly difficult for individual

miners as well. You're going to buy a machine that might be basically ineffective 10 months from now or nine months from now. Exactly. But historically, that's where the most beta in the space is. And mining machines that are barely profitable, those have the most beta to the upside. So that's not what I would own in a strategy over the cycle. But if we're talking about the tactical similarities to late 2019 here with BTC price, BTC dominance, rising sharply, Bitcoin miners underperforming six months ahead of the halving, I'd want to stick to your low cost, no debt miners at the moment. Makes sense. You keep mentioning dominance. I just happened to pull up the chart and

going equally as parabolic as Bitcoin, basically, if you look at it. But interestingly, so I think we all know, listen, when Bitcoin rages, your altcoins do well in USD, but are actually getting absolutely destroyed by Bitcoin. But in this case, versus even last week, when we saw that fake news pump, we are seeing some alts outperform. A few, right? Selective, injective, I saw. Link has been performing exceptionally well. We all know that Solana's been performing exceptionally well. Are we at least seeing a bit of a decoupling where a few of these projects could exit that cycle of boom and bust that's basically just dependent on what Bitcoin's doing at any given moment? The history of this space is that Bitcoin is the tail that wags the

dog. And once Bitcoin holders are sitting on a bunch of unrealized gains, then they look to speculate on riskier projects with possibly more upside. I would expect this cycle to look quite the same. And we have a lot of differing views in-house and how these views are expressed, but I don't want to get too cute about it. I would think that Bitcoin dominance will make a higher high after the halving.

And you want to have larger positions in BTC for the next six months. There are like, you know, case specific stuff going on. You mentioned Solana is really the only layer one that's outperforming Bitcoin in the last month. They've got a big breakpoint conference coming up next week. You know, we're quite optimistic that some DeFi activity may return to Solana, which has been mostly absent of TVL ever since the FTX collapse. So we have pretty good conviction that among smart contract platforms, it's going to be the EVM and then Solana that have the greatest chance of success.

But you can always find some altcoins that are outperforming. I'm just not convinced that that's a sustainable move higher at the moment. Yeah, I tend to agree with you. I mean, I literally even said at the beginning that I'm kind of looking at selling certain altcoins right now. If they're up 50%, 60%, 70%, I'm not going to play games, right? I'm going to take some profit on these positions because I don't know how long it will sustain. And frankly, I'd rather be back in Bitcoin for this part of the

cycle if it is going to repeat and be the same, which you echoed as well. I want to talk a little bit more about Solana actually, because I interviewed Raul Paul yesterday and that's coming out on Sunday, but he was surprisingly, I guess I hadn't been following, but very, very bullish on Solana, largely because of FireDancer and the ability that it actually has, which I didn't know, effectively become faster, but also more secure, which is the first time I think you've ever seen that with people trying to figure out the blockchain trilemma. I mean, the numbers of whatever of transactions they're apparently going to be able to do very soon is absolutely astounding.

But then the question becomes, again, who's going to use it, right? So you can make it as fast and secure as you want, but we're going to start to need to really see these killer apps and things that the mainstream wants to use for that to matter, right? Yeah, totally agree. Firedancer does seem to be a game changer in terms of throughput. We see upside potentially to a million transactions per second. And then the addition of that second client just increases the decentralization. But you need a killer app. And we're hopeful it's going to come in the payments market where the speed and cost of that network makes it feasible for a retailer to take, say, USDC directly from their customer and enter into, you know, essentially a loyalty agreement directly with the customer without these banks in the middle. But that's going to require, just to take that payments case as an example, that would require, say it's Home Depot, right? Okay, come into Home Depot and pay with USDC on Solana, we'll give you a 10% discount.

That would require, I think, Home Depot to buy a bunch of soul for their working capital in order to help make a market there and kind of pay in advance for fees. You know, we haven't really seen that happen yet, but given what I noted earlier about Solana TVL essentially at zero right now, there's, you know, not too much in the price. So we would expect the rejuvenation of that ecosystem to have a positive impact if it happens. Right. At the very least, it's eliminated all of the VC, SAM, FTX, FUD of last year that was supposed to send it to zero because it's trading at higher prices than it was even before that. And I think that, frankly, a lot of those actors have been either washed out or have been somewhat marginalized, at least in the holding pool there, which is nice. You talked about USDC on Solana. That was sort of one of

those big news events that was missed in the bear market. I think if I recall, just something that doesn't move the needle when we're in this part of the cycle. But I've always argued, speaking of killer apps, it's stable coins. Stable coins are and have been, in my opinion, the killer app of crypto for a very long time, not only because it's faster and cheaper payments, but because in places like Venezuela and Lebanon and Ukraine and Russia, where you have either conflict or hyperinflation, we'd love to think people are going to rush to dollars, but they rush to Bitcoin, but they want dollars. And this is the only way that they can get them. But they've been doing it on Tron. Exactly. Yeah. Actually, that was an interesting thing that happened yesterday is that Ethereum

fees finally flipped Tron yesterday, reversing the recent trend. That's probably a positive for the space. But just as an indication of Tether and Tron's recent dominance in the market, Chainalysis just released a report yesterday that showed how much digital assets value has been transacted by region. And what the data showed is that Middle East, Africa, East Asia, Eastern Europe, they are taking a lot of market share in terms of crypto value settled year to date. Those three regions combined are now bigger than North America or Europe, which are both losing share. So my hot take is that the EU's MECA regulation was not as positive for crypto as people think. So we're more focused on the EM story,

watching Argentina disappointed a little bit that Millet couldn't win, but we've got November 19th to look forward to in the runoff. Right. He could still win, obviously, just didn't win outright. But it was a pipe dream even a few months ago to think that you could have this pro-crypto, pro-Bitcoin candidate in the first place who's talking about the death of fiat and central banks. He's like a Bitcoiner's wet dream who came out of nowhere. So I'll take it as a good thing that he was leading and still has a fighting chance there. But I want to touch on something you just said about Mika. Mika always sucked. And it's amazing to me. And I think it was a time in the industry where people were just so down on

the regulatory environment in the United States that they took any regulation, even if it was bad, that gave some sort of clarity as a win. But Mika was, I mean, before the United States cracked down, everybody was terrified of Mika. So why that sentiment shift to where the industry embraced it?

Is it literally just because at least we know what we can do, even if it's bad? Yeah, I think there are some positives in the regulation specifically around the transparency of what is a custodian? What does it mean to be a staking provider? Licensing and registering those types of centralized actors is somewhat positive. But the way that, say, stable coins are treated, and we've looked into issuing these types of coins, either commodity-backed. And even commodity tokens are treated as stable coins in Europe with quite high regulatory capital requirements. And it basically makes it uneconomical unless you're really at scale.

So just another example of Europe, you know, picking winners and losers. You can't even choose your own phone charger over there. It's now illegal to use anything but type C. Yeah, it's not the place where you're going to have freedom. Right. But I mean, there's also like very strict talking about stable coins and why maybe Europe is losing share. I mean, there's very strict KYC requirements on what you can send, who you can send it to, how much of it you can send, what you need to report when you send it. They completely hamstrung the entire stable coin market there. You effectively can't use them.

It's hard to issue a new one. It's not bad if you're an existing stablecoin issue because your regulatory moat just got wider. So there are some self-custody payment solutions like Gnosis has done with Visa, where you can essentially spend your crypto from your self-custody wallet using the Visa network. We'll see if retailers get excited about that. It's going to be demand driven. I think even the Visa Solana announcement that we both just talked about, that's within the crypto ecosystem. Visa is not going to be pushing this on TradFi or bricks and mortar retailers. It's going to be up to people who want crypto to demand that service, to want to spend it and use it out of self-custody.

And, you know, that's what adoption is. That's what Tron has succeeded at. You know, Europe has given itself a framework for that, but it's not given itself a framework for a flourishing DeFi ecosystem. I'm still just shocked how well Tron has done here, which just shows you that regardless of people's, I think, feelings emotionally or sentiments around a project, they're just going to go for cheaper and faster. Yeah, we'll see how that one ends up. It's lagging quite a bit here on the up days. Still have a few legal issues. Why is that lagging? Is it lagging because everything else is becoming cheaper and faster, or is it just the luster is wearing off? I wonder why that would be the case since they've been so dominant in market share.

I think maybe read the CFTC complaint about who's controlling those nodes. And I don't take a ton from the price of that coin. I don't take a ton of information. I think it's correct. But the price of the coin and I guess the utilization of the network for a lot of people could be different. But yes, if you're starting to feel FUD or hesitant to own TRX. Yeah, but it goes back to my point. This is supposed to be decentralized monies, right? So if you're going to be accepting even a stable coin and using one of these networks to facilitate transactions, you want to be comfortable buying this asset for your balance sheet and then not being scared when the regulator comes knocking and asking, what do you own? So in that sense, I don't think Tron is the asset to own. Totally understand from that perspective. I know we're kind of here in the last minutes of this, which is too bad because I think you've just delivered more alpha per second than any guest we've ever had on here. But is there

anything else that you're looking at, excited about, especially in context of this sort of new, renewed, I'll call it a bull market. I think we've been in sort of at least a bullish trend for quite a while here, but in light of this wonderful price action and this real seemingly institutional interest. That's an ad, Scott. Great, great conversation. Good. I love it. Guys, follow Matthew Siegel on Twitter. I literally realized for some reason that I wasn't following you on Twitter, which I thought I was. But Twitter has this bad habit of unfollowing people on my behalf.

I don't know if that happens to anyone else. Or I'll go to someone's profile and I'm just not following them, even people I've been following for like 10 years. But I did it live during the stream just to get all of you guys to do it as well. You can find the description, his Twitter down in the description thank you as always matt and i i hope uh i hope they're all approved right at once or the van eck is first why not thanks brother we'll talk to you thank you all right guys now uh that was uh like i said that was endless alpha the amount of uh information that he just dumped on us,

I'm going to have to go back and watch this like three more times. We're supposed to have Wick coming on right now, but I'm showing his device is not connected in the window, so I can't even attempt to bring him on to stage at the moment. So what we're going to do is cook through the charts by ourselves. And it's been a long time since we've been able to dig through charts. You guys remember every single Wednesday, I used to do chart a Palooza and I would just take like a hundred requests and we would cook through all the charts in my free newsletter,

which I never literally mentioned shill or anything. And's fucking free which you can find down below the wolf den i actually started charting alt coins again guys it happened it's real it's there uh yesterday i think i shared believe it or not shiba inu which i think i shared a uh matic chart maybe link uh showing what i would do there. I know Injective has been absolutely blasting off. As I said yesterday on Twitter, I sold a bit of Injective. I've been in from much, much, much, much lower, but only a little bit, only a little bit, taking some profit across the board. But let's take a very quick look at Bitcoin here. This is the weekly chart, guys. If you're not following the newsletter, I literally lay this out every

single day. But here you go, man. We saw that break above the 200 MA. To me, that was really the signal after all this struggle below the 200 MA to get above, which also coincided, of course, with the break of the 200 MA on the daily. And we just have these two massive weekly charts with major spread. We're already at half of last week's volume. And that's, it's only Tuesday, right? So two days into the week, we're already seeing this massive candle spread. And as I said, for basically the entirety of, you know, we'll call it the, since a year and a half ago, May 22 after this.

So here, starting in March, we've basically been in two ranges. This 25 area up to the mid-28s and then up to 31 and the yearly high of 31, 801. Well, we are above those now, right? We are above those. So now, I mean, when I look at the weekly, I only see the area around 37 as being key. And then you go to the daily, guys, I drew this like 20 times. You saw the box, right? I said, if we get above after rejecting here at the 200 MA so many times, once we get above it, that box, that area is where you're going to potentially want to buy. Well, you can see, I mean, this is an absolute moon mission right now on Bitcoin.

Other things that I had shared before that are good signals just for your education and to understand, you can draw trend lines on your indicators. As you see here, this was RSI. And I told you when this broke out and retested, when RSI broke out and retested, this is all in the newsletter, which I'm accidentally shilling, I guess, right now because it's free. You got the retest here, which usually precedes the breakout on price. And on the line chart, you got that breakout in price a few days later, and you can see exactly what happened there. I think that Wick is here. I'm going to try to bring him up. And speaking of the newsletter, he's, as of this week, we have partnered together and he's offering setups from his indicators, trading alpha

also for free in the newsletter. You can't literally, I mean, I think you should actually sign up for trading alpha. I've been backtesting it. It's incredible. I will be using it much more frequently. I think you should probably purchase it, but you can check it out for free. And actually, I think you get two weeks or two months free as well. John, can you hear me there? Hey, Scott, I'm here. How are you doing today? Holy moly, it works. You had your WIC logo there before, but he's gone. Were you ever able to figure out how to share your screen here? Yes, I did. Let me get it going here. Nice. Let's do it. Because I haven't done the solo hours of charting thing in a long time.

It used to be all I did here. And now I wasn't ready for it. Right. Right. No, I got you. Let me know if my screen's coming up there, Scott. It is. But as of now, I see myself on it.

So we got it. Yeah, there you go. Here we go, guys. We're doing it. It's happening. Okay, guys. So I know everyone is super, super excited. However, I do also see the underlying fear, right? We're asking ourselves, is this move real? Is this sustainable? Was it really

black rock, right? I've heard all the arguments. I've even heard the arguments that was brought up just now by that guy on saying that the open interest kind of collapsed yesterday. So what that means was people were assuming that liquidity pools were hit. And because of those leveraged shorts, that's why we had this pop up. I don't think that's the case. I really think that this is a sustainable move. And I think the bull market has started. Why? Because I have to go back to the technical. So first here's the four hour charts, but actually let me switch to the weekly chart. Okay. This is why I think that the bull market has started. Obviously everyone knows that we've broken out from this level. Okay. But this is a move. This is almost a $5,000 move that just happened. We haven't seen that type of move

in Bitcoin ever, I think, actually, in such a short period of time. Is that right, Scott? I think we've seen them before in other markets, but I think the sentiment is correct. Yeah. Okay. Now, what we really need to pay attention to, right, if we're really just analyzing this technically here, is does this weekly bar close like this? If it does close this way, Scott, this is the bull market has started, right? And then once I take a step back and I start analyzing the structure, you notice that all we've been doing is putting in higher highs. Higher lows and higher highs all the way up. That is literally the definition of a bullish trend. Okay. So if you have to ask me, Scott, the bull market has started. You want some more confirmation? Wait five days and let's make sure that this closes above this resistance zone that we're in. Okay. Another reason why I think the bull market has started, these bees don't print, Scott. I'm going to be honest with you. They don't print until a big move happens that I'm going to show you.

Can you tell me what those bees mean for people who don't understand? Yeah. That is a great, great point. So these B's pick up patterns. They pick up bottoming patterns. One of the patterns that it picks up is a double bottom. So you can see here how we made that first leg lower. We call this the puke low. Everyone is normally, you know, back in the day, calling their broker saying, listen, get me out at any price. This is why there was a squeeze breakout to the downside. Making this next leg, put in a double bottom. And this was signaled by the bees. Let's look at the last time this happened, Scott, just for some context, right? If we go back here, I don't want to show too much of the secret sauce here, but remember this move, Scott, remember dropping from 6,000 all the way down to 3,000. Everyone thought it was- Literally everybody remembers that. I still dream, I have nightmares about that. Yeah.

Anyone that was alive at that point in Bitcoin literally has those same nightmares, okay? But look when that bottom printed. So this bottom, okay, there was no other bottoms anywhere in this vicinity. Bottom printed, letting us know, letting me know that there's a high probability, never 100%, high probability the bottom has been put in. What do we get next? Scott, we get these green dots. And what does that tell us? This is simply the soonest indication that a bullish trend is starting that you can ever get in any indicators, any setups anywhere in the market. I've said it. This is the soonest entry on trends. will get. It turned green right after the bottoming pattern setups. This is telling you that a trend is now starting after a bottom pattern is

put in. Same thing here, bottom put in. What happens? We have green dots, a little fake out, not too much later. We have a squeeze breakout to the upside. This volatility shading, but you know an extreme move is coming. We broke up to the upside. The dots kept you in the move the entire bull market. They only stopped right here. Okay. So if you go here, Scott, and you now look to the current, another squeeze breakout, this started the bear market. We put in our double bottom patterns over here, started to see green trend dots, letting us know the trend is finally picking up after the bottoming pattern. And here we are, Scott. So that kind of says it all for me. I think this bottoming pattern here has also given me much confluence with the breakout from this zone that we were not able to break through ever since May of 22. So these are all reasons, Scott,

why I believe the bull market has started. And if you want me to add another one here, it looks like I don't have it on my chart, but if you put on a 200-day moving average, which- I have it and I just showed it right before you came on. So super easy. There's the 200-day moving average right there, about 28. We're above the 200-day. Broke through it and I was literally talking about it right before you got on. So good timing. Yep. So 100%. So I think even people in the, let's call it legacy markets and stocks are looking at it. Yep. And they're thinking this is the time. And then I want to bring up another point, Scott, that is very interesting. The halving is right here. Okay. So we have this time before the halving. Normally we do have 20% to 30% pullback when we're at this stage in

the market. It doesn't have to happen, but I want to point it out. Now that we're a little higher, Scott, that 20% to 30% pullback, that again, I have no reason to think it's going to happen because we're not seeing it technically show in the charts, but we've got to be aware of it. That puts us at, now that we've climbed higher anywhere from $28,000 to $25,000. So let's say in this range right here, somewhere in there, there's a possibility, who knows, maybe the ETFs, there's a lag and they don't get approved or the first one gets denied or whatever the case. History says that we should pull back here before the bull market. However, I've not seen that, but I just want to mention it so you guys are aware.

It's so funny because that's the price going back to prices not seen since 10 days ago, right? Exactly. That is a clear support zone. Whenever you exit it, you obviously know that there's demand left behind in any zone where price quickly exits. So that wouldn't be a surprise. But what is interesting is when we were just sitting at 25 to 28, not long ago, that retracement people were talking about going back down to 20. And so it's nice to see that that standard retracement we get would be kind of putting in another higher low, most likely. And in previous halving cycles, we didn't

have the Bitcoin spot ETF hype. And we always did kind of get that scary higher low. In the case of 2020, we had obviously the lows of that cycle around 3,200. And then March of 2020, which everyone knows when COVID hit, we went down to like 38, right? That was a really close higher low as well before rocketing up. You showed it over there, you know, 14,000 when the green dots were hitting. But I'm hoping that this time, quote unquote, is different and we don't need to go back and make that slightly higher low, in the 19, 20, 20 region. But I think things have changed here, right? I think that if you zoom out and don't even just stare at the charts, I think it's clear that there's a lot more buying interest than selling interest in context of what's happening with this market.

100%, Scott. I agree with you 100%. In fact, I'll put my name on the line here and say that I don't think that there's almost any chance at all of us breaking below 25,000. That would be the 30% retrace mark from here. Normally, if we do retrace, it's 20 to 30%. In my opinion, there's no ways we go below 25. And yeah, I think this is a really great place. That weekly chart that I showed right here, this is a really great setup if you guys are investors for the long-term. If you're looking for times to buy, you guys know I don't believe in averaging down in a bear market because before you know it, you're at an 80% drawdown and you're reconsidering your life choices. So I do believe that now is probably a good time, right, on this setup, on this breakout arrow here.

This is another thing that I didn't point out. We have a squeeze that just broke out. This actually triggered the squeeze breakout that was right here, similar to right here, and also it started the bull market right in 20. So we're having that same pattern play out now, Scott. So that's- Quickly, does that arrow print before the candle? Where in the candle did that arrow print? Because I can see the red one, obviously, before that huge FTX squeeze down. And then they're hard to find. There's a couple of the green ones before the absolute parabolic move on the left of the

chart. So was that green arrow? Because guys, I'm learning this alongside you, to be honest. I've been digging into it. But those green arrows, was that a signal before this massive candle? Yes, Scott. So the way it works, right? All our indicators, none of them are lagging indicators. So I will say this, the dots print the same time the bar is active live. It doesn't print on the close. And with these squeeze breakouts, right, we actually have another signal that is a potential breakout that would have signaled here if I turned it on. But yes, Scott, I think these breakouts go live. So these do not signal after the bar closes. These do signal live while the bar is in motion.

That's awesome. I see that you have Solana charts there as well. And I think that that's been on a lot of people's mind. Like I said, it was the conversation I had with Raul Paul yesterday. Some cow came to Solana. I just talked to Matthew about Solana. Everybody's talking about Solana. So what do you think?

Do you think that this can continue? Is this a get short? Is it a buy the dip if we get it opportunity? How are you viewing this? I absolutely love Solana. So I'm very much in Rawls camp. It is one of the main assets that I plan to trade in this bull market. I think that it probably has the most upside, right? And I said, think because nothing is absolute, but it is one of the plays where I am putting my money. So let's look at what's happening. Let's skip this four-hour chart. I'm sure you can see here from exactly what I've gone over, Scott. We have these bars here. Nothing is happening.

We have the squeeze shading, litting. You know, a violent move is coming. Eventually, you have a red dot. Okay. It might be the downside arrow. We get the downside action. Okay. While we're getting this, we eventually print these Bs, and we're waiting for a green dot to let us know the trend has changed. Trend changes, and off to the races. Let's get off of this. Let's look at the weekly chart because you asked me when is a good time now to buy. Looking back here on this chart, Scott, I really don't think that... Who made a good

chart of this. I think it was, I think it was Tentoshi made a really good chart of this. But if we go to the weekly, okay, we still haven't broken this resistance. And this is when I think that it happens. This is when I think that would be a great time to enter. So this is what I'm watching. Okay. I do have some soul, uh, but most of my

bags are going to come out when we hit that stage to uptrend, when we break above this resistance, what I don't want to happen is I don't want to have another fake out here. I buy it. A fake out happens and it comes down. So sometimes you have to draw these resistances and really respect them. Okay. Um, another thing, let me see if I have another chart, uh, look on this chart here. Okay. Well, we have the track line, Scott. This track line here is in direct confluence with that gray resistance line that I showed you. So again, I really am waiting for it to break above this resistance area over here before I get in. I think that's a great time to start buying into Solana and looking for bullish setups. So this is one of those things where you had your chance and now you're looking for the next chance, but you don't necessarily need to FOMO in at the exact

moment. I share a lot of things like that where it's like, things are looking good, but you're clearly at resistance. You don't want to buy right into resistance, as you said, because then you get faked out. I can tell you, I was looking at this one today. This is eGold, which everyone who has followed me for a long time, I was first in ERD, which was previously Elrond at 10 sats versus Bitcoin. And it went, I think, to 350 sats. It's literally the reason that my newsletter tripled in followers. And then we sold it, it went way back down. Then it changed to Elrond and we bought it at 10 bucks and we're selling it at well over 200, right? Now I'm kind of interested again, but the point being, this is resistance, right? Like these humongous wicks. This is what you're talking about. You didn't want to buy that right when it was approaching it. That was the absolute rejection.

So now to the same kind of idea, you want to get clearly above and then try to buy the retest. Maybe you don't get it. Maybe you missed the trade. There's always another one, but I think that's kind of the same idea. Yeah, absolutely. So let's talk about this real quick. So with my audience, Scott, I talk a lot about a stage one basing and not being an area to buy. And stage one basings happen just before a stage two uptrend, which is the bull market. Okay. This right here to me, Scott is a classic stage one basing pattern. You don't buy this at all. Okay.

It's only when it breaks out and you see a setup that you get into long positions. Okay. From, from my rules, from being a trader for so long, I never, ever, ever buy the stage one basings on a weekly timeframe. Okay. When I look at this, I tell myself, okay, is there a range to be had? Okay. And if there is a range to be had, then maybe there's some scalp trades, meaning short-term trades. But as far as medium term trades and long-term trades, I never, it's a golden rule. I never, ever getting to them when you're in these stage three basing patterns, no matter what the dots are doing or nothing, it has to break through into that stage two uptrend

before I start looking for setups. Which is interesting because a lot of people, because I think their natural instinct is to want so badly to have bought the bottom, right? We'll say, but you could have bought it for $8 last year, or just in June, it was back down to $12. And you're thinking in lines with mine, which is I would rather buy higher on confirmation because the upside is all the way back to those all-time highs, right? I mean, do I care if I buy above 40 bucks or whatever that is, or if I bought

at 20, really, if it's going to hundreds of dollars? No, I don't. Absolutely. Absolutely. And you know, Scott, one more thing that I want, that I want to really mention here while I'm on the YouTube video is I have a lot of people and, um, they'll say, Hey, but you know, your setups are beautiful, but like, if I miss it, right, I'm probably not going to catch it. And what I, what I tell everyone is, please remember that if you do become a member with us, just right click. Okay. And go to add alert. Right. And if you're trying to catch the green dot setups at alerts, they will let you know exactly when they print. They'll let you know when the bees print, they'll let you know when the dots print, they'll let you know when the

squeeze breakouts print. So these are, these are all methods of how I catch moves. I don't sit there waiting, looking at the charts all the time. I just set alerts and that's it. I mean, I set alerts for everything. Usually for me, it's lines, right? Like when it breaks a resistance, how do you actually add the alert for a dot to appear that hasn't appeared? Great question. Great question. So if you, right, right. Great question. So exactly how I do it, Scott, I look for alerts, but as you can see, these setups are in motion. I would not try and catch these setups or run after them. I think that's awesome. Right. But let's say you wanted to know

when you wanted to be alerted when the next red dot hits. Sure, yeah. So if you wanted to be alerted when the next red dot hits, you would simply go here. You would click on the alpha trend. You would click on, maybe right click it here. And then let's see here. See, I normally go here to settings.

I put them on the spot. There we go. Yeah, there the spot. There you go. There you go. Here you go. Here's where you can set all alerts, right? So if you go and you click on this, it's going to ask you if you want to do with any of our signals here. Holy shit, that's awesome.

Yep. Micro bearish trend. That's your red dot. Micro bullish trend. That's your green dot. You click any one of these and it's going to let you know when it's printing's your green dot. You click any one of these and it's going to let you know when it's printing its first green dot. And that's interesting because usually when I set an alert, it's based on something I drew on the chart. It's not like just something that appears

out of nowhere at an arbitrary level. So I've never seen that. That's amazing. A hundred percent. A hundred percent. You thought of everything. So yes, Scott, just to reiterate, I do think that we're in a bull market. I do think it's wise to start for people to start having kind of a bearish tone on there. I know everyone's been kind of really hurt by this bear market and sideways action where, you know, obviously no long positions in a stage four downtrend are really going to work out in your favor. And I think most people are really not believing this,

or maybe were caught off guard and didn't jump in. Just know that this is not the end of the road. There will be more setups. Most times, actually, on this weekly chart, you do see a pullback to resistance. Scott, you know this, before it breaks out again, right, in a healthy chart. And rarely, very rarely, okay, does it not retest because the asset is so strong. There's so much momentum behind it. It just, it just leaves you. Okay. This is what everyone's worried about. And let me tell you, this has happened very, very, very rarely in my career. When you have a big macro- It happens and there's always something else to buy or the next level. I mean, it happens.

Boom. Exactly. Exactly. And that's what I think most people, uh, this is why they end up making most of their mistakes is because they're pressured and there's a lot of emotion going on. They turn on Twitter and everyone's telling them that they caught the move and they're up, you know, thousand percent. These make us, uh, execute irrational moves. So if you're watching this, just know if you miss any moves ever, you know, don't, don't, don't FOMO in, just be patient. Setups always come again, always, no matter what price we're at. So much alpha, man.

So listen, guys, I told you at the beginning, John, you were probably reconnecting at that time. But we've done a partnership here, obviously. Although you've been on the show even without having to do that. But, and so in the newsletter, you can see his setups that he's sharing with us for free. Of course, if you want to dig in and trade these yourself, you're going to need the bundle and to buy the indicators, which I'm aggressively using.

The only thing I would have asked is if I could make them blue and gray because my charts are so weird. We can make a blue and gray version for you specifically, Scott, if you really want them. But that's me just being a weirdo because it's the way I look at charts. I actually find for me that red and green are triggering. I used to find that it gave me sort of more emotion than these cool calm colors, which for anyone who doesn't know why my charts are blue and gray, it wasn't to stand out. It was literally to avoid triggering emotion, which is kind of interesting. But in the description down below on the YouTube, and it will always be there on YouTube videos from now on, and at the

bottom of the newsletter, you can check more out and you can sign up for this. And to our followers, it's two months free, correct? It is two months free. So Scott has a code. If you take that code and you go to our checkout and you're checking out the yearly alpha bundle, that will- Crap, I didn't put the link in there. I'm just realizing that we didn't have the link. I'm going to go at it right now. It's okay. It's okay. Let me... Gotcha. Gotcha. So use that link that Scott's going to put there. And then when you get that link and you go check out the yearly bundle, that is the one that has the dots, make sure that you input that two months off. That's a two with the number two, two months off, capital N, M, capital O. If you do that for all Scott's followers, it's two months off. You'll see that reflected in the price.

I'm going to have to literally edit this. So guys, you can check it out in the newsletter. The information is there, but my God, the link is not, and I can't change it until we get off, but I'm going to change it immediately when we get off. So wait one minute and then it will be there, man. John, thank you so much. Do you think I could convince you to do this weekly? Scott, I would love to come here and join you guys weekly. Let's do it. Yeah, because we've started like Wednesdays. I have Texas West Capitol Thursday. I have chart guys. I would love to just do this on Tuesdays. Can we do that? Tuesdays. I'll be here. I'll be here, Scott. You got it. Let's do it. Awesome. Can't wait, man. Thank you, everybody. Check him out. Also, of course,

on Twitter, one of my favorite followers. It's called X. I still call it Twitter. It is what it is. Thanks, man. Thank you. Thank you, Scott. Zero hedge underscore, guys. Check me out. Bye. Zero hedge underscore. All right, everybody. That's all I got. I got to go get ready for good old crypto town hall. We did an impromptu crypto town hall last night. I had like 12,000 people there while Bitcoin was pumping. It was crazy. But today should be absolutely epic. Incredible guests. We're going to talk through this. Man, that was a great... Today was amazing. Like these streams are just getting better and better.

It's so much more fun in a bull market, but really just trying to drop the alpha. Christopher Walker says, no golf, Scott. I'm going to play. I said it. I'm going to play golf this afternoon for the first time in like six months. And it's going to be amazing.

And you guys might not hear it for me. That is what it is. All right, guys, that is all I got for you today. I'm going to change the description right now. So check that out, please. Peace.