The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Faces Its BIGGEST Test Yet As Oil Nears $100 And CPI Looms

Episode Date: September 8, 2026

Bitcoin is stuck below $80K as markets wait on CPI and PPI, with Fed hike odds still near 60% and oil pushing toward $100 on renewed geopolitical pressure. We also cover Hunter Biden’s new LAPTOP memecoin, governance concerns hammering Metaplanet shares, and white-hat hackers returning most of the $320M taken from Liquid. Plus, South Korea says stablecoins could save merchants billions in annual payment fees. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming, Ontario. Bitcoin faces its biggest test yet as, oil nears 100 American dollars per barrel. And CPI is looming. We're getting August CPI inflation data on Friday and August PPI inflation data on Thursday because we all deeply care about CPI, PPI, and the price of oil. We're going to talk about that and a lot more today with Tillman, who decided to show up today with Andrew. And of course, with our friend from Bloomberg, one James Safer. It's going to be a great show. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? Happy Day after Labor Day. To those who celebrate, I still don't know what Labor Day is, and neither do you. But we were not here because we were not allowed to labor. So there was no Macro Monday, which meant you did not get to hear Mike McClone tell you that your favorite investments are going to zero. But what you can hear is Tillman, Andrew and James tell you that your investment is going to zero. Welcome, gentlemen. I would just like to say that if Mike is listening, James gets a raise. and Eric Balchunis does not because he showed up 37 minutes late last week. And Andrew and I had to just talk amongst ourselves.

You'll do a good job. I was doing family stuff, taking my son, you know, getting him set up. I apologize for not being here. But I think my attendance record this year is even better than yours, Scott, honestly. Yeah, you've been in Bermuda like six times, haven't you? I've never been there once. So they've got that triangle thing, I don't know. Okay, so let's start here.

So like this title's not hyperbolic. I'd like you guys to know that because Big Quix clearly never faced a bigger test than oil near 100. And looming CPI. But what I will say is that we do have some data coming this week, you know, that my screen is not even shared. Look at how ready for this show I am. You guys like that screen? Looks good. By the way, not to ruin the show, but it is.

is it is appropriate that we have the ETF guys back to back because that's pretty much all that matters with Bitcoin anymore. Nothing else matters. Only inflows and outflows matter. That is what we need to price. I'll take the other side of that statement. Thank you. Take the other side of that statement.

They're just a piece of the pie. I mean, honestly, they reflect what's going out in the broader market more than anything. There was a time where you got an ETF on underlying asset and that actually. move the market. Like people thought it was going to come to the market and, you know, more demand, whatnot, yada, yada, yada, yada. I mean, there's some argument true to that, but for the most part, it's just reflecting what's going on in the market. We had some puking in June when the whole market was puking, which was the first time the ETS really puked up some Bitcoin. It's really just a reflection of what's going on. And some underlying

heartbeat of demand, I think is true from advisors. But yeah. Okay. So we, but we had, you know, Bitcoin obviously made this massive move up a couple weeks ago, 22% ish on the week. And we know that that was sort of Treasury and then short squeeze. But then we've seen pretty steady minus a day or two demand coming from ETF. So I guess you could make a compelling narrative that the short squeeze was kind of the technical move, but at least that demand has maintained price at this higher level and that we've seen the flows. I mean, we've seen some massive days here, right? I mean, you take a look at the time and try to bring it up.

But, I mean, we've had some big days of late. One of the biggest days since the second biggest day of the year or something we just had, didn't we? I'm very good at knowing what happened. Yeah, no, you are. I mean, things are looking good right now for the Bitcoin ETS. But I mean, you got like we're still below the all-time like cumulative inflows that we've, we peaked at in October of last year. There was like a bout of inflows we happened in late spring into early May.

And then we, you know, July, July. June, late May was a nightmare. And right now we're back at like all time, you know, things are humming along. Basically, since August 17th. Ironically, it started coming in right after the cold part hack. So I think money started pouring in because some of that was like, people are like, all right, I need to get my money off these cold cards. Where do I put in?

I'm sure some of them put in exchange. Some people bought the Bitcoin ETS because they're like, this is the way I'm just going to get exposure from now on. And it's kind of continued for the most part. And we've seen some serious inflows into the ETS. Yeah, I mean, we had cold cards. obviously. So we've had this sort of self-custody crisis. I'm going to just go ahead and right before we talk about ETF some more and bring up this amazing story. Liquid Network gets back, 3,400 Bitcoin from White Hat hackers. Talks are underway, guys, for the rest. I'm trying to stay in the stream.

So if you guys miss this, basically, they minted a whole bunch of extra Bitcoin and then stole it, and then they returned it. But your take here is the best, James, because they were white hats and said they were going to return it all, but they kept 600. 600. I don't know. I have no idea. I mean, it's the largest. Yeah. It's the largest bounty ever by like orders of magnitude.

I mean, I would say gray hat, I guess right now, but they're still talking with them back and forth. I saw tweets now from Galaxy out this morning. They're still going back and forth talking about like what's going on with these hacks. So we'll see what happens. Maybe more of it will go back. But I mean, that's a pretty healthy tip. I mean, that is 600 BTC.

But at the end of the day, like if I got hacked and I had the opportunity to get 85% of my Bitcoin back. I had to give up 15. I'd probably take it in this position, but White Hat probably goes away if that's what they keep. I think the interesting story is the recent attacks and who the targeted audience is. It's like the old guard is getting bullets shot at them left and right. Blockstream, right? I mean, you talk about like, you know, hitting home plate.

That's as close to home attached to cold card as it gets. And so to me, it's almost like a reinforcement of the Wall Street narrative that paper products offer benefits. You know, the response of Black Rock quickly thereafter to go, hey, tax-free, you know, like-kind exchange, lowered down to a million dollars. Like, that's incredibly coincidental, in my opinion, and I don't believe in coincidences. So to me, it's like a maturing of the market. And these are the old guards that are theoretically the smartest people in the room. And so to be humbled on the world stage, you know, they get to participate in the market, but they don't own it psychologically anymore.

Like there's a chink in everyone's armor. And when you talk about kind of how you patch that hole, like what really can you do? Wall Street's already had all these things in place. Like, you insure. You do traditional silo type. You know, the fact that a hacker could get into one bridge and one peg and get 300 plus million to me is ludicrous. Like, there's a lot of management that can be applied here.

Right, but this wasn't a, right, so this, what I think is interesting is we're seeing, like, new and novel hacks. You know, this isn't like the keys were compromised or anything like that. This is kind of reminiscent more of all those. crazy defy hacks we've seen. They basically created a bunch of like LBT through a software bug and then they redeemed it for actual Bitcoin and there were only 4,200 actual Bitcoin in the pool, which are supposed to be one for one backing the LBT and they redeemed 4,000 of them. Right? And this is, oh, by the way, I'm not going to say also coincidence, but like, you know,

we got mythos and fable and then we just got whatever it's called. What's it called? Do you do one from chat, GPT? I know, I guess my broader point is, is if you're going to move. Yeah, if you're going to move 4,000 Bitcoin, you might have some humans involved. Like, that would be my take on it. You probably get some real people in the real world that can't get tricked. And you have layers and layers in departments. You know, that's the reason why big companies move slowly.

Have you ever tried to get anything done with them? Like, they don't do anything quickly. And this is why. Because they want to grind the truth out of every vendor, grind the truth out of every marketing campaign, grind. Like, they have the money to do that. That's the game you play. That's the bully at the poker table. You just pressure everybody with your stack. Yeah, that's crazy to me. Like, this is Adam back. Like, I'm not saying he's involved, but Blockstream. You know, like, this is,

yeah, these are the biggest names in OG crypto, guys who have been floated as Satoshi Nakamoto and like their, you know, Bitcoin defy is being. That's not an accident, in my opinion. It seems like they were. like in the process of fixing this bug. So whoever did it, like caught it like real quick and executed on it. So it has to have been like what you're saying. There's no way this wasn't found out with like AI assistance. And Rob Hamilton, I saw it tweeted out basically like if you point one of these models at this thing, it finds it out in a couple of minutes if you know how to prompt it and what to ask for. So I don't know. I'm with Tillman completely. I mean,

I work in Tradify and sometimes it's really frustrating. But like T plus one settlement, like it's not just that they can't do atomic settlement. They probably could figure out ways to do it. But also it like it forces things to slow down. It forces netting. It forces people to figure exactly what's going on. You're not going to lose, you know, nearly 100% of your money via some hack this way. I don't have Astor yet, apparently.

I'm checking because I just asked how I can get Stochi's Bitcoin. Yeah. It doesn't work. Like you'll be really, Astro will be released and you'll have Stoci's Bitcoin tomorrow. Well, I mean, I think for the broader conversation, everyone should start digesting that thesis now. Like, what happens if those coins start moving? What happens? I'm just like in general right now. And this isn't maybe the conversation for today.

But like how, you know, like when you're watching this from the outside, how do you feel safe about holding Bitcoin? Go ahead, Andrew, ETF. Well, again, the price, all this happens and price just does basically nothing. I love that. And that's been happening for months now. The latest and greatest, you know, crisis in, you know, Cypherpunk Bitcoin world just means nothing. It's fun to talk about on Twitter and it's fun to see nerds talking about

OP messaging each other. What I have no idea what that even is. Like I guess they're messaging each other in on Bitcoin. I don't know. nobody knows and well very few people know and everybody else think that they're nerds uh that they think it's cool to do messaging in that way um and so again to my point about the scale of of movement uh having to do with bitcoin it's it's it's generally very very very tethered to inflows associated with spot bitcoin ETFs so you know when you have meaningful outflows as

as James said, you know, March, June, July, May, April, when that was happening, what was Bitcoin doing? It was moving meaningfully to the downside. And when you had, you know, ETF inflows sort of starting early for the sell in May go away crowd in August, Bitcoin moved from 62 to 82. So yeah, you know, it may be boring, but it's also very, very highly correlated. And there aren't meaningful narratives other than, you know, what data leakage happened this week over the past, you know, six or so weeks. There's nothing else happening in the space that is all that interesting. that isn't sort of manufactured, right? Like Bitcoin credit or the latest meme for Michael Saylor,

like it's all just manufactured. And then you have the real world of asset movement, capital movement, either out of Bitcoin or into Bitcoin. When it moves out of Bitcoin, the price goes lower. When it moves into Bitcoin, the price moves higher. And the best metric, the best way to evaluate what that looks like is spot Bitcoin ETFs. I can hear James also trying to act. Sorry.

That's what a year of being trained on the Bloomberg machine. That's what it sounds like. Labor Day weekend, I forget to mute myself when I hit my mechanical keyboard. I was going to chime in with the exact number. So I was looking at it. I mentioned August 17th. We had $3.8 billion come in since August 17th, which is huge. That's a lot of money.

And the day you're talking about, we had $730 come in last Thursday. So, I mean, the money is pouring back into this space. And I don't know, as somebody, I've been told that the Bitcoin ETS were going to drain out to zero. I've been told that Bitcoin is going to go down to 10K and a bunch of other things. So we're just, I just think these things are here for the long term. and we're going to continue to see advisors adopt these types of assets. It's a small portion of their portfolio, two to five percent. And I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon.

Though these hacks are definitely going to scare away some advisors. I mean, if I talk to an advisor, I can explain to them why the liquid hack is not a hack on Bitcoin itself. But like from a high level, this just doesn't look good for the whole industry, especially if anybody knows what block stream is and what liquid, who is involved with liquid. Like this is not some like upstart group of people that have never dealt with crypto or Bitcoin. It's it's something that is going to keep people. away. The cold card hack, all of this is going to keep people like second-guessing investing in this space. And so, yeah, there might be- People need to harden up their services. Yeah, there might be two Morgan Stanley financial advisors on the planet who know what liquid Bitcoin is. Like, I'm serious.

There might be two on the entire planet who understand what-Bloomberg. James, did that hit the terminal? Do you know? Because I remember Cold Card hit the terminal. I'm sure. Actually, I didn't even look. I get most, I get a lot of my crypto news on this type of stuff. It's so much faster on Twitter. I don't even, I don't even bother reading the Bloomberg news on this stuff until afterwards. I'll check right now.

You're going to get a call from Bloomberg sales. You're going to get a call from Bloomberg sales. James, we're trying to sell more terminals to crypto people. Don't you think. If getting news stories is the reason. If getting news stories is the reason you're paying, you know, however many thousands of dollars per month per year, you have a terminal for the wrong reason probably. Yeah, yeah, that's true. Don't you think that this is just a precursor to the big print that's coming and, you know, the bond buyback already is an indicator of massive quantitative easing efforts that are going to be on the horizon?

And, you know, the last number I heard was over $10 trillion sitting in money market accounts doing nothing. That would be a reason to get some of that money out of the money market accounts is if you knew that the big print was coming. And I think we're going to have to print our way out of the issues that, you know, are right in front of us. And the one thing that I think most people miss, you can read Twitter, you know, all day long about, you know, this is unsustainable. This is, you can't keep doing this. This is a parabolic curve. Yeah. Listen, everyone dies in a relatively short period of time.

And people forget what relative pricing is. My grandkids are going to go to the store and buy potato chips for $84.28. And they're not going to blink about it. They're not going to care. They're going to throw a taffy on there too. We're just because the myth that the military isn't. the thing that keeps our dollar in place is crazy. We have, we're the strongest military in the world or one of them,

no different than any other strong military out there. It supports an economy behind it. And our economy is going to continue to get to print money for a lot longer than we're going to be alive. And we're going to continue to see prices go up across the board. Ask your great grandparents what their price of their house was. And your jaw will hit the floor. It'll be like, you know, a sack of peanuts and 40,

two cents. Another, you know, another missed opportunity by a former DJ Scott Melker. Whenever the term taffy is mentioned on this podcast, a few bars of Laffy Taffy should be played in the background, okay? That's how it should go. Did nobody tell James that this is an insane podcast every Tuesday? He seems to not, but he's a little surprised that it's a little weird on a Tuesday, okay? I'm here for it. I love it. This is a good, like, my brain is still, on Labor Day weekend, so I'm ready. This is giving me a good wake-up call to get back into things, just like a gradual assumption. Yeah, it is asset prices, again, the resilience of asset prices across the board, right?

The news is begging for asset prices to go lower, right? All sorts of, you know, things happening in. the world, whether it's war, whether it's politics, whether it's policy, everything in between. There's always a reason for asset prices to go lower. And they just don't. They just don't. Yeah, there's another one. Brent Coote nears $100 dollars. Strikes, Saudi, blah, blah, blah, blah. Chinese will demand unexpectedly soars. Shanghai crude above 100. Brent prices set to follow. This one's actually interesting, which just, I laugh. Bitcoin's trading like a different asset than it was in March. back then its 90-day correlation with the NASDAQ 100 was 0.57 with gold.

Point-21. Today the readings are swapped. 0.22 NDX and 0.57 gold. Hey, guys, I look at this and you know what I think? Uncorrelated asset. Yeah. Yes. Like, I love that.

That is my takeaway, too. Regains correlation with this. That just is a random walk in the park. There's going to be times when it's with both. But if it's not correlated to either consistently, it's uncorrelated, which is the whole point. Breaking news. Seattle didn't get rain yesterday. It's turning into a desert.

I mean, this is, this is, this is indicative of the headlines in the crypto space. It's just most of the time junk in my opinion. It is, by the way, I'm a zero hedge fan, but that guy's been calling for some sort of recession slash deep, uh, adjustment to the markets for a decade. I mean, that's just kind of the next thing is, is bad as happening. Oh my God, the next thing bad is happening. Like, that's just what zero hedge is. And again, I'd like that. account. But it's indicative of, you know, the markets are extremely resilient. And underlying all of the

resilience of the market are boomers and to some extent Gen Xers now that just say, none of this really matters. Here's more money for my account. Just put more money in my account. Put more money in a cross-section of investments that just seems to keep going up or not going meaningfully down for me to care for over a decade at this point. So, you know, that's the, put, let's call it, underneath the market, it's, it's, it's pretty extraordinary. Investor behavior is, again, you can boil it down to just, you know, one narrative often, and that's really boring, especially for podcasts, but investor behavior is kind of where we're at. Like anytime there's a point and a half, you know, 120 basis point dip.

in the market, oh, another buying opportunity, right? It used to be like six or seven, you know, a percentage down would be a buying opportunity. No, I don't want to miss it because it'll, it'll pop back too quick. It's not going to get three percent. Let me put more money in. Let me put more money in. Let me put more money in. And people don't get spooked anymore. I mean, my goodness, war with Iran. You would think, again, I don't know at what point there's going to be something that spooks the market to the downside of 17, 18, 25%. But man, if we covered the gamut of what could have or should have over the past, you know, two years. We got wars.

We got, you know, bond market intervention, like broken bond markets. We got soaring interest rates. We have confusion as to what's going to happen. The yen carry trade. Oh, yeah, there's everything. Everything has been thrown at that market. Bitcoin slips under 79K. apparently that's bad.

Fed height odds hold near 60%. It's over. Fed's going to hire. Okay. Yeah. All right. Go ahead. Yeah.

I mean, we do it here too. So we're guilty. Zcash leads losses. If somebody told me a headline with Zcash leads losses when it's trading at $1,100, I would have been like, what are you talking about? That is insane. That is an insane headline. I was sitting at, I think, a lunch.

I was in Vegas a few months ago. and Zcash was, I don't know, 400, something, whenever it was. And we're sitting with a guy who, like, you know, he's a crypto guy, like, crypto marketing and stuff. And he was like, Zcash is going to like, he's like, it's going to 700. He's like, then there'll probably be a dip. And then it's gone. And I was like, okay, yeah, we buy Zcac.

And it dipped to like, went to 700, dip to 250 and now to like 1,200. And I am retarded. Is that really how he talked? Is that how you talked or he talked? Was that he had an accent? Was it Bitcoin? Were you with, Bitboy in Vegas. Just admit it. Were you with Bitboy in Vegas and we just don't know he's back?

At the time so I can factually say that was not. Not the case. I mean, so I think that the overwhelming consensus here is that we had a whole lot of bad news and Bitcoin went up and we've still got a lot of bad news and Bitcoin is staying up. And to me, that's a lot of signal. Like I just don't see. Maybe I'm wrong and maybe I'm blind. But like, is anyone here see a specific catalyst that could send Bitcoin to new lows, the new low, you know, below 57 or 58. Satoshi's wallet's moving, you know, that would be my... Yeah. You know, Satoshi's wallet, you know, if money starts moving out of all Satoshi's wallets, that would get the attention.

I think maybe, but to your point, probably of all the people who don't matter anymore, I think the money speaks. And the people who are in the know are just out after the transatlantic. transactions, and they're implementing this as a mainstay in their entire ecosystem, which means we haven't even scratched the surface in terms of onboarding of new customers. If you look at the healthiest power law correlation that I've ever seen to Bitcoin is the wallet creation curve. It's like adoption. If you get adoption, the price goes up. And I don't think we've seen the first inning of adoption.

if you then factor in the AI models that are going to need to settle in something. And Bitcoin, if you ask all the AI models right now, obviously Bitcoin is going to be the first answer. And it probably will be for a long time. Like I don't know of another network. This is a good discussion. And I'll leave it here. It's like I got into a lot of debates over the weekend about Zcash.

And it's because they're calling it Bitcoin 2.0. And that's what's getting people's attention and some very big heavy weights and have very loud voices in the space are calling it Bitcoin 2.0. Well, I have a thesis and I don't think it can be argued. I don't think Bitcoin would survive if it started right now. I don't think the age of AI and a proof of work network and the susceptibility to a brute force attack at the 51% mark. I think the critical mass point that you need to get to is almost not achievable with the technology we have now. I think that's days old. I think Bitcoin's going to be. be enshrined in that regard. I don't think that it's going to lose its place. I think it's only

going to gain market share in that regard. Largest proof of work network ever created, and it's the largest network in the entire world. And that is valuable in it of itself. You talk about use case, talk about value proposition. That's valuable whether you see it or you don't. You know, you're going to use it at some point. Sorry, soapbox. That was a good soapbox. I've actually never thought about that. like trying to create a new Bitcoin in the age of AI. You're dead. You're dead. Your brute force attack at some point.

We almost lost Bitcoin at one point. We actually had a mining pool that got to like 50%. And you know what, though? It didn't. It didn't work. And that's the point. We survived. And to say that Zcash now is going to survive when it's literally like to add 30%

to the Zcash mining network is one back. of run from the biggest producer. It's like literally one batch. Like if Bitmain said, hey, you know what? We're going to point our efforts to Zcash. They could control 30% in one run batch. It takes nation states to control 30% and gig.

I mean, more power. Bitcoin's just at a different level. There's levels to the game in terms of real world networking that has to happen in order for you to call Bitcoin or Zcash Bitcoin 2.0 in my mind. And so that's a real bad analogy I wouldn't give people because it suckers them in. I don't know. I haven't seen anybody calling it Bitcoin 2.0. I've seen I've seen Bitcoin like with privacy and stuff like that. But I, my only pushback would be like the market caps dick agree with you, 100%. Like we're talking orders of magnitude and size of the protocols, right?

Like if you if if if if if Zcash gets the same market cap as something like XRP, we're talking like a 5x or 10x multiple. I don't know what the exact number is anymore. But like there's it's still like not really valued anywhere near the level of Bitcoin. So I think I, I, I, I get, like, I get, there's a lot of Bitcoin maxis really pushing back hard on Zcash saying it's a joke. I'm not completely there. They've done a lot for ZK proofs and stuff like that. They've done a lot of, like, infrastructure on that front. And, but it's obviously rubbing the maxis the wrong way in the same way that Ethereum and Bitcoin maxis went against each other.

I just think, like, this is interesting tech if it actually completely does work. But yeah, people saying this is equivalent to investing in Bitcoin, like, they need to understand. way further out in the risk curve. Yeah, but that, they use that as the argument. It's like the same as like if Bitcoin gets to the market cap of gold. Yeah, like it's the market cap of Bitcoin. Imagine the price. You're buying Bitcoin. It's like buying Bitcoin in $1,000. Well, and that's how it was even born. I mean, it had a $5,000 launch price because it was trying to be the Bitcoin 2.0. And, you know, there's a lot of people that haven't said that exact same same phrase, but they've said things like this is the finality of Satoshi's dream. I mean, give me a break. This is a joke.

Now, granted, privacy matters in some areas. But just build a private database and merge it with a public blockchain and make that the private. Like, I just don't think this narrative of the government is coming to get us all and you need to, you know, I just think that's, I think it's again, fear mongering like Andrew was saying earlier. It's like it's fear sell. and the big bad boogeyman that can come get all your stuff, you know, sells. But at the end of the day, you're the big bad boogeyman. You lose your wallet. You lose your seed phrase.

Like there's more risk in that than there is. Yeah. It feels pumpish. It also feels weird that long term, you know, not even frenemies, but they hate each other, the Winkle Boss twins. and Barry the Great involved in the feels a little yuck. But at the same time can feel a little yuck, and it goes from where it was two years ago to now 1,000, right?

That again is, you know, that now we're talking about Wall Street type of thinking, right? You can hate an investment, but you may. have to hold it for the percentages. 40% of Zcash in the public arena that you can see, not in the black box, 40% is held by 100 wallets. Yeah. No, I get it. Again, I just describe it as something.

I don't want to touch. But at the same time, it's, you know, going from where it's been to where it is now. There's no liquidity in it is my. point though, like if 40% of the float that's publicly visible is held by 100 wallets, it's no wonder the price has gone crazy. But that's why I think this whole notion of like looking at market caps to judge how liquid or how good in one of the crypto, I think it's crazy. I literally think it's like smoke and mirrors most of the time.

To say that this thing has gained this much market cap and this much period of time, try selling into that curve. try it. I mean, I guarantee any meaningful sales. That's not, that's, that's, that's just a very high bid based upon people wanting their bags to go higher. And it's been played out through the history of crypto. These are the same, this is the same stuff that we watched in 2017, all coin pumps. I mean, it's, it's, it's, same narratives, different day. I mean, we got those coins at a 14.13.91 billion. Leo

quite everybody loves to use 8.46 billion I mean yeah I think you know Bitcoin cash still sitting at 5.13 billion but honestly I would like to push back on something you said before Tillman which is the idea that you can't launch a new Bitcoin in 2026

because the biggest coin that's ever going to be launched in history Yeah, that's right. Hunter Biden debuted Bitcoin targeting Trump holders It's actually pretty interesting. So if you haven't looked into it, the tokenomics are tied heavily to politics.

So founders, including Biden, received 30% of supply, blocked for six months, investing over more than two years. Another 30% can be burned if events such as a Democratic win in 2008, a new Bitcoin all-time high or laptop overtaking Trump's market cap occur.

So Trump holders are being directly targeted. They get a part of the 20% air drop allocation. We'll go to wallets that are underwold. on the Trump meme coin alongside Hunter Biden's substack. What if this is the tip of the belief? Are you guys subscribe to Hunter Biden's substack or are you losers? Listen, I hate to admit it, but I have read and seen him. He's been plastered everywhere.

But what if this becomes the tip of the political spear, meme coin capital campaign competition? That's the final boss of raising capital in the political arena is launching your mean going and saying what your your donors will give. Well, you know, Elon said it. The craziest outcome is probably the way that things are going to happen. And we see this all the time, especially in finance. Like the stuff just gets weird. I mean, you know, James and Eric talk about it almost on a daily basis. Like the the strangeness of ETF submissions and an ETFs that come out on a daily basis is just, you know, it's the land of misfit toys, but it's a version of does something

hit. If something hits, then a new entry into the ETF world is now going to survive and potentially thrive. Like, you know, talk about the corgi phenomenon, you know? I mean, that's that, that, that, that basically encapsulates it in a meaningful way, right? And just nearly every week, there's 30 new submissions, right, that those guys do. More, more. I mean, people, they're, they're, we call it the spaghetti cannon.

They're just throwing spaghetti at the wall. And it's, I mean, it's expensive. We're talking tens or 100,000s of dollars to launch these ETFs and keep them operating. But you get one or two. They gets a billion dollars in. And all of a sudden it funds the launch of like 57 more, right? And so that's kind of where Corgi is leaning towards a lot of other issuers going this. A lot of these products are not products.

I would say that you should be holding long term. They're treating vehicles, leverage single stock products. Crazy shit. Not that dissimilar from weird meme coins, I guess you could say. I mean, theoretically, the underlying companies, most of them have like a real true long-term basis. But when you have a leverage version of it going up and down every day, like anyone knows when you're playing with leverage, it can burn you. The other thing on the laptop thing, going back to that, did you guys see that like Channel 5 News just handed Hunter Biden the like subscriber list to Channel 5 news? Which, you know, the YouTube guy, I guess I would have to ask Scott to show it up.

But essentially they was like, no, we didn't partner with him. We just gave him our subscriber list for emails. so you can be eligible for the airdrop. I was like, I was like, what am I reading? Like, I don't know if this is real or if I'm getting punked by like some scam online, but it's actually crazy.

Listen, hunters crack the code for data collection. You just go to all the news, you know, agencies and say, hey, we want to, you know, give away tokens to your, if I wanted to be able to give away tokens to people, I would just call ledger or treasor or bits of it. Because apparently you can get, hundreds of thousands of crypto enthusiasts full information by going to all them. Yeah.

It's, uh, no, our victims. It's wild. And it's the wildness is not going to stop. You know, we talk about this a lot. Volatility is not going to slow down. That is functionally, you know, probably the,

the most meat on the bone associated with markets these days. You know, every day there's, there's some new leveraged ETF that, that comes out. Every day there's a resurrected asset of some sort that goes parabolic, whether it's sand disk or micron or Zcash for that matter. Like, why wasn't Zcash pumped to all heck three and a half years ago? But I don't know.

Just because they didn't want to. They weren't thinking of it. There was something else that they were doing. But every day across, you know, all sorts of markets, the amount of volatility is increasing across the board. James, you and I, we just did like a telepathy thing because I looked at X, which I never do during the show, right when you sub-tweeted this to me so that I can bring it up. Shout out to the homie is the sign-off. From Channel 5? Is this real life?

This is a YouTube guy. He does a lot. He goes like, he does his own stuff and interviews people. If you saw a clip of him, you would recognize him for the guy who this is. He used to go around in a van and go to places where like real news channels wouldn't go, essentially. Yeah. Well, I mean, we have gotten to a point in society where those guys are frankly a little more interesting slash have more followers or viewers than actual like channels. Yeah.

So there's that. Objective fact. Yeah, there's that. Oh, shout out to the homie. Shout out to the homey. Yeah, about the Bloomberg terminal earlier. And as also telepathy, my friend just. sent me this. Look at me.

Whoa. How about that? There it is. I made it into your $30,000 a month subscription. When you asked before, if Bloomberg News covered the liquid hack, they did. And you know what, with the article had as his main image and source of information? Not you, but Alex Thorne. They used the tweet from Alex Thorne where he was talking about this. And like, that's what's on the terminal right now. So again, I got the news before BN even wrote it up. Should we talk? James, how much time do you have, by the way? I didn't even look.

I can go for another 10 minutes or so. I'm good. Another 10 minutes of James. Should we talk about strategy? Because he's doing stuff. We got strategy over here. Repurchase 176 million of STRC, increase in size of blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, all the things. Let's check STRC price while we're at it. So what's interesting here is, though, is that, so they obviously didn't buy or sell Bitcoin. STRC is 97.96 right now. It's getting close. But, you know, they had raised a second cash pile. And they used that second cash pile to buy back STRC. So they didn't do any diluting this week.

But also in Treasury news, just to give us more to talk about, Metaplanet slide 17% this week as CEOs, public note fails to ease investor concerns. I don't know if you guys saw this, but just so you know, like buying MSTR and Metaplanet is not the same as buying Bitcoin for anyone who is wondering. But basically, I don't know if you saw this, but the CEO, so here's, dilution. Metaplanet Series 10 executive option pool expanded from roughly 46 million shares to 319 million shares as the company repeatedly issued equity to buy Bitcoin. So they were diluting shareholders, but increasing the amount of shares that the executives got. And then the CEO exercised 92,000 Series 10 units and received more than 64 million shares after they tried to fix

this by capping the pool. So basically people are saying you diluted everybody. to buy Bitcoin while giving yourselves huge bonuses in shares. Good times in Treasuryville. Yeah, the way I understood it was like they had a certain percentage of like the company and shares outstanding rather than a number of shares. So is that right? Is that exactly what's happening when I like skimmed at what was going on here? Like it wasn't like you get this many shares.

It was like you get this percentage of shares at that time. It's like if you keep diluting, you keep getting it. Yeah. I think that's correct. So the more you dilute, the more shares. on a percentage basis go to CEO and friends. I don't know much. I'm just saying like treasury company thing, man, you know.

You just buy that. That's an ugly footnote, isn't it? That's a, that's a, oof. What's ugly about it is the fact that it's, it, it was designed that way. I mean, what, what is the very nature of a treasury company? It's designed to extract liquidity from a future value, from an MNAV. And that's why MNAV, we even used that term now. We didn't even use it before treasury companies.

And so everybody back in the heyday was looking at two plus MNAVs. And they, all the documents, all that was written back then, all of the payouts, all of the structure of the deals, you know, that was the design. Now, it probably wouldn't be making such negative headlines of Bitcoin was at $250,000, But it's not. And that's the nature of playing in the public market space. Yeah, James. James, you're correct.

So I just, I use the Astra, it's very high-powered. The protective reward pool is 20% of meta-planets fully diluted share capital, not as a fixed number of shares. So it created an automatic expansion mechanism whereby diluting, you know, by minting shares to buy Bitcoin, and they were just increasing their own percentage and shareholdings massively. You know, really the story behind... If you can get it. That is a good, good word.

Really the story behind Treasury companies is, you know, one of the famous lines from succession. The old man just says money wins, right? So ultimately, this large swath in 2025 of tried and true Bitcoin Maxis slash, you know, just Bitcoin evangelists. They were faced with a decision. You know, do I take 300 million, 400 million, 700 million, a billion, you know, whatever the number was, you know, to kind of sell my Bitcoin soul for, you know, an equity

position. And no, almost all of them did it. Almost all of them did it. And, you know, I've said it a few times, but yeah, we need to, you know, the followers of Scott and the people that follow this podcast need to be reminded. Literally that happened at the Bitcoin conference. And in that particular moment before it was even obvious to anyone, Scott was like, holy, this is bad. This is a bubble. This is going to be a real problem.

And, you know, you were getting hit up by everybody. I got to find me because we had the room upstairs and we were recording content and I had Jack Maulers. And they announced 21 like that week, right? Somewhere around that. And I said to him in the interview live in front of everyone, I said, explain to me how this isn't a bad idea. Explain to me, I don't remember the exact words. I was like, come on, man. I said it.

I was like, I've been pitched a thousand of these. Explain to me how they don't go under. And he said, this is great. And listen, he would admit, you know, he's come out and said this was, right? He was like, because they'll go under and we'll be well capitalized and we'll buy them up. Maybe that something like that will happen and it just won't be them. But they were already thinking about that at the time. It's just such a weird thing.

James, I know you got like three or four minutes. So, you know, if you want to comment on treasury companies or tell us about your book that you might have written it's coming out any time soon. Well, I will say we wrote that we started this book and before, you know, in the last heyday of the market, most of it. So we obviously have done some editing beforehand. But we made the conscious decision just kind of to mention treasury companies because they're, like you said, I get it. I can make the argument for them or why they could potentially outperform Bitcoin in certain cycles and what have you with your putting leverage on it. It's just not something that we wanted to dive into. So like I said, we made the constant decision when these things were popping off still, like not to really do much more than mention them in the book.

So I guess I should explain. Eric Boutunis and I wrote a book, writing about crypto and Bitcoin. It's basically for those types of Morgan Stanley advisors that Andrew was talking about before to kind of like get them into Bitcoin and why they should consider a portfolio or maybe not. My biggest pet peeve nowadays when I go around, obviously I'm a believer in this space for the most part. I talk to people and they are so against anything going on here and they couldn't explain to you how any of it works. They just think like it. They have no idea how this works, how it came about. So this is kind of like a 101 for people who kind of understand finance is the way that I would describe it.

But yeah, as far as going back to one, there's too many of them. I mean, anyone, everyone was saying that. I mean, it was the objective fact that everyone was launching one of these things and it was, they are not all going to survive. I think it makes sense that one or two, you know, have found product market fit. Obviously, if your strategy has found product market fit in some way. I mean, he just, he just issues more common and buys other shit with it like every other week. The amount of money that he can do this with is thoroughly impressive, whether it's financial engineering or your full believer in what he's doing.

My view is like, it's just impressive. I'm not somebody that, like, needs to be doing that. And something I was saying for a long time is, like, when you get to those really high multiples, it makes absolutely no sense to be buying up there. Like, you're basically, you're, you're just buying to sell to somebody higher at some point and you're, it doesn't make sense. So my, my view is like, I think that I thought the MDMDM multiple should always be closer to one than what they were trading at, you know, in mid-2025.

Now we're here. I mean, I guess we'll see if we go into another bull market, if things go back up into those really high MNF multiples, but I think the market has kind of figured it out and that's not going to happen anymore. Well, it's hard to blame advisors being, you know, meaningful, skeptical, and worse when, you know, that the headline that they see from crypto is laptop, right?

I mean, I can understand when they go to take another look, Oh, Bitcoin's up. What's going in the crypto world? Laptop. That's what's going on in the crypto world. So, hard to blame them. There needs to be self-policing in this space is really what it comes down to. And I think that's happening.

Like people are calling the shit out a lot more, more prominent people are calling the shit out in this space. And I think that's a good thing because, I mean, no matter how you slice it, when you have something that goes up, you know, thousands of percent, you're going to attract a lot of people that are really interested in. You're also going to attract people that are just straight up scammers. They're going to go where they can make money and scam people. And no matter what you do, that's what's going to happen in the space. Well, I think also we've been a depegging of the downgrading of the holier than now, maxis with all these kind of the liquid hack and the cold cards. Like nobody really claims superiority right now.

It's a healthy thing, I think. I agree. Make everybody down a peg. All right, James, I'm going to let you go. When can we get the book? Thanks, guys. Where can we get the book? November 10th, wherever you get your books, Barnes & Noble's, Amazon.

It's pinned on my Twitter, but yeah, wherever you can get your book is where it would be out. The launch is of every 10th. It's available for pre-order now. It's called both sides of the coin, and it's by Eric Balchunis and I. Are you going to narrate the audiobook? We're talking about that right now because Eric didn't want it to have somebody else to do it. I can't tell you how many people were like, can one of you narrate it because I can't stand when I'm like buying a book from somebody and somebody else's reading. I've had like nine people tell me that over the last week.

I need a British guy doing different voices for the two of you. that's what I need. I mean, I guess it's like, if you wrote the book, you know where you want to show emphasis and importance. And if it's just somebody who's reading books all day, like, who knows? I don't know. I've heard it's brutal. Like you can't even like move a leg while you're doing a recording that it's like a real

serious process to do an audiobook. Exactly. There's a sign felt for this, by the way. There's a signfeld for the audio book conversation. Okay. Well, I'm going to let James go before you sign fell to us. All right. Thanks, guys. When Costanza has to read the risk management book in his new job,

Rast Management, he's like, this sounds like me. This is me. I can't listen to this. It's me. Also, it needs to be noted on this podcast that I shot up 37 on the front nine yesterday. All right? I just want the audience to know that. I want them to understand this. You need to put a disclaimer next to that. Okay, all right. Here's the disclaimer. I only use the toe wedge about three times, all right? That only thrice.

All right. That's the disclaimer. So in the world. Why are kicking it entirely out of the jungle? No comment. You play golf like 90% of traders trade. It's like they lie to you about the only part that. So basically what you're telling us, you shot a 40 on the front night.

Awesome. That's a good job. That's actually still pretty good. All right. I bet you hit the ball far. I actually do. There are moments where it goes far in the wrong direction. But, you know, there are some nine holes where it goes pretty straight.

You know what? I'm enjoying myself. Let's just say that. Yeah, I don't know if this is the – I just brought this up when you made that joke, Tillman, about the success of traders. But this is, I think it's actually worse than this, but you know, the FOMO app or everybody's trade now, it says 94% of meme coin traders losing money. Okay, that's a surprise. But I saw something, I don't want to misquote it, but like, whatever it was, it really shocked me. Because it was like only 200 people have made more than 10 grand or something. Listen, I've played in that space for a long time. And I still play in it occasionally and get burned. And the only thing I will warn everyone to is that it doesn't present itself the way that. it actually is, like a lot of things in life, to be honest with you. And I have people reaching out

to me today going, is the U.S. Oil Reserve going to really be tokenized and is Trump leaked it out a first to Coinbase? And here's the sad part. The only reason why I'm getting those calls is because that scams working. And so, you know, it's sad because, again, self-custody comes with responsibilities and an understanding of the technology that a lot of people don't have and a lot of people get scammed, you know, out of their hard-earned money when they're trying to do everything right. And I think that's the message here is like, don't try to do everything right when you can't understand something. That's like me trying to do a wheelie on a ninja motorcycle at a hundred miles an hour. You know, I might pull it off. The mental image of that is really striking me right now.

I just wanted to get that knee on the back of it and, you know, get it up there and see if I can hold it. But, you know, it's a death trap. And markets, meme coins are the same thing. Like, you put money into those things. And as soon as the liquidity level gets to the enticing point of the major holders, you see the rug pulls happen. And you see it across every board. So here's the point. I brought up earlier about like 40% of the public pool is owned by 100 wallets in Zcash. They may all be diamond hands like board eight yachts and like crypto punks are.

I'm just saying that's the only reason why those things still command the price tag. It's because the people that own them are rich enough where they don't have to sell them. And if the 40% of wallet holders on Zcash don't have to sell because the price is up this high and they don't need the extra billion, then the price could go up higher. But that's not real, is the point. And people need to understand that. Like, that's not a real market when you have concentration of, you know, that much of the currency in that few hands. What you want is, you know, very, very shallow, very wide pool of holders. And the point that I was bringing this back to from a meme coin perspective is there's technology now that these scammers use to fake that.

You can look and go, oh, it's been fairly and equitably distributed through airdrops to 10,000 wallets. No, it's just 10,000 wallets that were created in an instant by the scammer. And one AI bot controls all the wall. Let me just tell you, it's very sophisticated. It presents itself very differently than the public realize. and it's it's uh it's fraught with risk fraught with risk i mean it's like drinking moonshine in the hills north carolina yeah they have a biot club floor price it's still fix money to east that's pretty good it is interesting just in the aggregate to look at

you know anything whether it's mean coins or whatever happens to be you know most people in my generation and then previous to me boomers they they they love learn that lesson with penny stocks. Like it's the same concept as penny stocks that, yeah, you can make a 10 or 15 or a 30x, but you're going to just as quickly or more than likely lose your money, again, because of liquidity. There's a reason why penny stocks are penny stocks,

because at any moment, whoever owns the most of it can just do something small and hammer that price to the downside or to the upside. and people learn those lessons. Well, those circles are very small. Go listen to some podcasts about how the board ate yachts and how Gary Vee was on a phone call with dozens of celebrities and was like, buy these things. It takes very few, very, very rich people to affect a small market.

And they have then a very large incentive to publicize that market and to grow that market. That is investing, whether you like, like it or not in the U.S. It happens from literally the floors of Congress all the way to, you know, all, every, that's, that's, that's markets. And it's not going to go away. It's only going to get worse. And that is a new website. That's what that is.

That is a new archipublic website. Your assets, your exchange, your control. Yeah. And so the purpose of this website, in short, is to get people to realize what automated tools look like as quickly as possible. So if you're a concierge right now, you can literally go into the recipe lab and drag and drop all of the different. So no more going through the tedious process of checkboxes and little settings by decimals. It's all the user interface is extremely friendly.

And so the point of this is to make it really easy for millions of people to see behind the curtain of what automated tools can provide you. So if you have a Coinbase account, if you have a Gemini account right now, soon, Tasty Trade, you will be able to literally owe off into your account and get going within minutes. You go off your Tasty Tasty. Did you guys actually spend money on that website or did you vibe code it? Because I don't want to brag or anything. But while I was on a show the other day, Grokbot, I made, created, and launched.

Launched a new website. We definitely did not vibe code it. definitely not there's a lot of infrastructure not just uh there's not just curb appeal here if there's a lot of stuff going on and we took about six months to get it yeah if you you know there's there's connection to your actual accounts you can see your balances you know uh natively and inside of the of the website instead of having to you know back and forth between your exchange and all sorts of stuff. Yeah, this is a huge, huge upgrade and update to the experience at Archpublic in a very, very meaningful way. We sort of seed gave this out to, you know, our concierge folks over the last

couple of weeks and have just gotten enormous amounts of positive feedback given both the user interface, the user experience, the ease of use. everything that they can see on the website as opposed to it being a place where they stop just once to kind of sign up or check out and then they're in a bunch of other places to follow things. Now it's now it's all here. So it's pretty extraordinary and people should go take another look, use our products for free and get involved. Is any of these you'd like me to click real quick? Recipe Lab. A steady support.

Like any of these? Yeah, go for it. You know, also you... Yeah, yeah. Pretty easy and simple stuff. If you click the crypto box on the left-hand side, you're going to end up with a whole lot of... How many are in there?

Quite a few. Yeah, so between equities, ETS and crypto, the amount of recipes is, I don't know, 60 plus or something. And what's great is, is these recipes get... are getting created literally every day, not only by us, but also by our users. So if you have some settings that you love and that have done well for you

to accomplish a specific goal, then reach out to us because this is what it's about. It's about making it easy. And you can drag and drop these and get all of them added. The thing that I've been impressed with is a lot of our customers, you know, to set up one instance, if you will, it's a 15 minute process. Well, they're now setting up 10 plus in a matter of five minutes.

And so it's just shrunk the process down. And it allows you to then set all those volatility traps across all the different markets that are available. And you don't know when the market's going to become volatile enough to trigger the events and get you where you want to go. But having them all set, having 10 plus instances out there watching for that event to take place, when it does, it's incredibly satisfying. And that's what we're seeing from all of our customers is them seeing an increased frequency of those satisfying goal achieving events. That's sweet. I had not taken a look at the recipe lab. Yeah. But now I'm feeling compelled to add some recipes. Well, if you want to make millions of dollars on Zcash,

we're going to have somebody put in a recipe in there at some point. I'm pretty mad at you for not, you know, telling me to automate my decash strategy. Put the equities and ETS back in there. It looks cooler, dude. Yeah, Intel, Microsoft. Yeah, well, you know, the interesting thing, and to your point earlier, Andrew, like the noise versus the signal. You know, Coinbase, one of the noisy things I heard was they added a bunch more symbols to their non-U.S. available tokenized stocks. The theme, though, is that these things are not going away.

They're getting added by the dozens. Robin Hood's right on the front edge of it. Crackens right on the front edge of it. Coinbase is right on the front edge of it. All of this is about to become really just a volatility farming heaven because there's going to be new derivative products that come out that are tokenized oil funds. with proven reserves and then everybody's going to rush in. You know, it's just, it's exciting. Tools make managing that not chaotic and not emotional and not doom, you know, doom or gloom every single day. It's, it's systematic.

And you just set it and forget it. And you let the volatility work to your advantage no different than, you know, putting catch basins at the end of your gutter system on your house. You're not thinking about every time it rains, but when it rains, you're catching water. This one looks like I took a lot of LSD. This is our LSU chart. It'll be more of a yellow than a green, I guess. It is.

What's extraordinary about our tools is I've yet to find even the worst equity charts that you can find. And if you're using our tools to, again, use voluminous. to your advantage, you just get a positive outcome. Like I, you know, I don't want to name some equity names, but there are some case studies that we've done year to date that are just absolute nuke bombs to the downside, but yet because of the volatility on a day-to-day basis, even to the downside, you're still up and it's extraordinary. And so again, whether it's to the downside or to the upside, using our tools is a net just meaningful exponent associated to what you're trying to get accomplished.

Whether it's cash yield or whether it's accumulation with upside percentages attached to it, you should be using these tools. And I've said it so many times. I'll keep saying it. If you're not using those tools, these tools, you're going to be forced to in the future when everything is tokenized. 24-7 trading, which is happening very fast. And send an optimist robot to your house with a gun. Well, here's the truth is you're going to, if you don't use them yourself, you're going to pay somebody a lot of money to use them for you. And that's what they're going to be doing anyways.

And that's what you're going to be doing anyway. So you must have to get to the illusion that anything is going to be actively managed by human. There's only one thing that's going to be actively managing things in its automation. I'm going to want to see how many advisors are using Arch Public and charging people as if they're not your arch public. Yeah. Our enterprise business model, Scott, if you have an interest in that, reach out to

arts public. Well, like you guys said, that this is another not-so-well-disguised ad for these Algo guys. Like, guys, we pretty transparently do this every week. Yeah, I've been doing it for two plus years. I don't know if you've noticed. It's not well-discized because we all use it and believe in it. Anybody notice the logo?

The giant arch-public. order a right I was like that over there did you notice we all are wearing the same color shirt I mean I don't know

I was just we actually didn't talk about that I don't think we disguised it 21 shares has nothing to do with us thanks Scott that's just the do you like that shirt we'll send you an arch public shirt

to wear it up man where's all the where's all my swag swag you know how badly I wanted to ask James if anybody has ever pronounce his name safe fart you know what I mean?

Saferred, it's safe fart, you know what I mean? You've asked him, of course you have. You beat me to it, man. You really beat me to it. You definitely. What a better time to ask him than he's not here. I know, I know. I know.

I should have asked him to his face. Has anyone ever said this to you, James, or am I the first? Like, every kid in your kindergarten class. Every kid. Andrew, you're a genius, man. You came up with that one today. I did.

I really did. How do you? That was almost as, you know, you were the first, just like that 31 shot or whatever. Well, I thought that through. I thought to myself, you know, even though I find it marginally funny, he probably doesn't. He's probably heard it way too many times. And to just do it, you know, to his face might be a bit too much. So I decided to do it after he had left the podcast.

This reminds me of all the people on Twitter that hate on me by saying, this is stupid and I would never comment on anything stupid before. I never know you said it. I just reply back, got it. No commenting. I will not comment on this, but I'm too good to comment on this. Okay, well, we're off the rails and we're past 10 o'clock. Check out Archpublic.

Archpublic.com. You're watching my five-coded websites. Amazing. I think I didn't read it. How many times have you read on your website in like the last three years? That's it. Like several times. I feel like it's been all the time.

Yeah, it may be. I don't know. Shut up. Shut up. Shut up. Shut up. Your brain is a candy shell. Off the rails.

Your brain's got a candy shell. I'm going to get the favorite part and put it all over X with him tagged just so that we can make this as awkward as possible. We should. That's the clip of the show is this. Stay part, yeah. We're here for it. All right, guys.

It's been a real pleasure. As always. The Royal Canadian Legion is celebrating its 100th anniversary. And now our change has a $2 coin to mark this milestone. Honor the Legion's mission to carry forward stories of service and sacrifice to new generations. And their dedication to supporting veterans. and their families from coast to coast to coast. Celebrate this enduring legacy.

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