The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Falls Below $100K! Has The Bear Market Begun?

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark this morning as volatility continues to rattle the crypto market. Despite the pullback, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $240 million in inflows, ending a six-day outflow streak and signaling renewed institutional interest. At the same time, Trump praised crypto for easing the dollar’s global burden, while one of his advisors warned of an incoming market shock tied to tightening liquidity. Still, Samson Mow remains optimistic, insisting the true Bitcoin bull run hasn’t started yet and predicting a major rally leading into 2026 — leaving investors divided on whether this drop marks fear or opportunity.

Bitcoin once again fell below $100,000 American dollars per token, leading many to believe that we are entering or already in a bare market. Even Jim Kramer said that consumer stocks specifically and potentially crypto have entered a bare market. NLW is away today, so you get yours truly on one of the deadest newsweeks in the history of this space. I know that that's the hook that's going to keep you guys watching. Let's go.

Good morning, Wolfpack, and welcome to the Friday 5, which this week, strangely could have been called the Friday 1. There's absolutely no news. The only news really is price action, a few comments by big institutions, but a lot of things that are effectively par for the course of what we've been seeing for the past few weeks of crypto. No massive announcements. Obviously, the government shutdown is slowing things on the United States side. Just a lot more things that continue to happen and drive prices annoyingly sideways, seemingly

indefinitely. We're going to just take a really quick look at the. Bitcoin chart because I think it's a important time to do so. As you can see here, if we haven't mentioned this before, spoiler, we have. We have Bitcoin on the weekly chart here. A huge line for the bull bear thesis is the 50 MA here on the weekly in blue. You can see that it's been tested with small wicks below three times since the lows, since we actually broke above it in March or Aprilish of 2023. Obviously, every time we've ever seen that 50 broken, We've gone down to the 200, which is currently at about $56,000.

I do not think we're going down to $56,000. Sentiment is horrendous. People are giving up. Obviously, all coins have gotten absolutely destroyed. I think that we're starting to see a tradable bottom here on Bitcoin. But hey, what do I know? Anything can happen. Of course, you've got my favorite indicator here, which is a line chart to get rid of all the noise with RSI.

We've got the four hour right here. with some potential bullish divergence. You can see a higher low on RSI, a lower low on price. Maybe we need to see that confirm. But it's also there on the six hour. It's also maybe there on the 12 hour. And finally, it's almost there on the daily, even though we have not gotten to oversold.

So I remind you guys, stop freaking out $100,000 Bitcoin. Pretty good price. Not something that has me deeply concerned as people call for the depths of a new bear market. I will talk a little bit more later about where I think we're at in the cycle. And a lot of that came from a conversation I'm releasing tomorrow with Rand Nooner. As you know, I have a couple friends who I'll occasionally record with and just talk about where we think the market is at, sort of hash out our thoughts and just record it so that everybody can benefit from it. That's coming out tomorrow. But I will talk about that a bit more in a

moment. Maybe the biggest news story of the week that I broke yesterday that literally nobody engaged with or saw that I have to, have to bring some attention to. Breaking leaked legal letters. These letters had never been seen before. I got my hands on them. Confirmed them with the sources. Leaked legal letters reveal CZ's attorney, Teresa Goody Guillen, demanded Senator Elizabeth Warren retract what she called objectively false and defamatory statements about CZ's pardon. Warren's lawyer has already replied. Both documents are verified and attached below. I have the full documents here. This was the letter that went from CZ to Elizabeth Warren. Now we had seen on Twitter that he was thinking about maybe going after her for defamation, but these are the actual

letters. Some absolutely remarkable points here. I'm not going to go so deeply into it. But if you just go to the last page, market reactions and misleading inferences, you point to a temporary two cent increase in World Liberty Financial WLFI token as opposed evidence of enrichment. You neglect to mention that world liberty financial remains down for the month, or that major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin E, the sole XRP, also rose following the pardon. Markets rallied not from corruption, but from confidence the war on crypto had ended. So basically, we get into actual price action this letter, but the ending is the best. Mr. Zal will not remain silent while a United States senator seemingly misuses the office to

repeatedly publish defamatory statements and impugn his reputation and cause him further injury. Quarterly, Mr. Zau respectfully request the immediate retraction of these false statements, both within the resolution and on X, should you wish to discuss this matter in more detail? You are welcome to contact me. Okay, that's really cool, but what nobody knew is that she actually hired some like employment attorney who has nothing to do with this and wrote a very long letter saying, yeah, right, dude, I didn't lie, everything I said is protected by the First Amendment, go kick rocks, basically. So if you read through these, there is a very serious intention seemingly for C's.

to actually go after her for defamation. If you missed it, this was the tweet that got her in trouble. Cizzi pleaded guilty to a criminal money laundering charge and was sentenced to prison. Of course, yours truly had one of my most viral tweets in a very, very long time where I said, shame on you, Senator. He basically said that because of the Bank Secrecy Act, that he was guilty of running an exchange that did not do enough to do KYC and AML. He never said he was money laundering.

He said he didn't do enough to make sure that the platform prevented potential money laundering, two very different things, and went for the full community note, which we got, which has now led to this entire nonsense. But what would make us here on the Friday 5 more satisfied in life than seeing Elizabeth Warren sued for defamation by a billionaire in the crypto industry? Amazing. I hope it happens. I probably shouldn't say that out. out. I don't know if I'm in trouble. We leaked the documents. I was told I can leak the documents. They should be everywhere in the world. So go ahead and share those if you feel like it. In other news, Kazakhstan, nice. To launch one billion crypto reserve fund using seized assets by

2026, Bloomberg. It's very clear that the whole world is going to form strategic Bitcoin reserves, much like the United States. The problem is our narrative always was that the United States will lead by buying Bitcoin. We saw Cynthia Lemmas, you know, present the bill, Donald Trump had the executive order that if we could find a budget neutral way to buy Bitcoin that we would. But what did we actually do? We took Bitcoin that we had already from Silk Road and Biphanix, which isn't even ours, and then went over to Cambodia, grabbed another 127,000 Bitcoin because of the pig-slaughtering scheme going

over there that we generally shouldn't have any right to and made those are strategic Bitcoin Reserve. So instead of buying a billion dollars worth of crypto, Kazakhstan and probably what every country will do is just going to go ahead and seize it from people. Seems bad. Listen, I'm all for strategic crypto reserves. I'm all for governments not selling their crypto, much like that German state did last year when Bitcoin was like $50,000 or something. But getting aggressive with trying to seize people's assets to create that reserve seems like a suboptimal path for our industry that are going on. Either way, though, I will go ahead and cheer the fact that Borat's home country of Kazakhstan, my wife, she

is going to launch a $1 billion crypto reserve. Now, we're getting some alarmist takes if we want to talk about the bear market about the credit crisis that is looming in default. Trump CryptoAdvisor warns incoming Defi credit crisis to trigger a crash bigger than October 10th. Actually said October 10th, part two. This is David Bailey, of course, from Bitcoin Magazine, Nakamoto, the guy who got Trump up on stage. She said, fire Gary Gensler. That sounded great. You guys like that.

Let me say it again. Fire Gary Gensler. But he's saying that basically under the surface in defy, which I have not seen much evidence of besides one collapse of a very small platform, a few stable coin DPEGs that are not really stable coins that you've never heard of. And of course, the balance are hack, which has very little to do with it. But basically saying that there's a credit crisis growing, a defy credit crunch, and that we've got to be careful. And another October 10th is coming. I guess we will see if that happens or not. But I do think it is fair to say that we will continue to see bodies rising to the

surface from that $19 billion liquidation event in October. And nobody, I mean, nobody would be surprised if some name brand entities blew up to some degree during that event. That said, almost everything liquidated was on finance and it was retail and we all know that they kind of failed us in that regard. So not that great. Moving on to the next topic. I'm not going to call it a story, but we got a bunch of big names with big faces talking about crypto. I pulled these. We've got FedChapal on CNBC yesterday saying that every bank can now offer Bitcoin and crypto services. Here's exactly what he said. Our role with Bitcoin really is to look at with crypto really is to look at the banks. And, you know, we, we think it's, you know,

banks are perfectly able to serve crypto customers as long as they understand and can manage the risks. And it's safe and soundness. Many of our, a good number of our banks, right, that we regulate and supervise do that. You know, the threshold has been a little, little, hire for banks engaging in crypto activities, and that's because they're so new and, you know, we don't want to make the mistake. If you're making a choice to conduct that activity inside a bank, which is inside the federal safety net with deposit insurance, then you want to be pretty sure that that this is safe and sound activity. So, you know, we're not against innovation, and we certainly don't want to take actions that would cause banks to, you know, to terminate

customers who are perfectly legal. Which apparently is still happening, by the way. We're hearing reports of Operation Chalkpoint 2.0, not being over yet, but Jerome Powell, who is doing a lot of this, that reeks of Steve Buscemi with the skateboard. You know, hey, all you fellow kids. I mean, I guess it's great that the Fed is finally saying that we can do the things that we should obviously be able to do that should have never been a problem in the first place. but I don't see it as like bullish news that banks can be banks and that they can bank us.

That said, it's nice to know that we have tailwinds as far as Operation Chokeboin 2.0 and that potentially it is ending. I would say that these comments by Fed Chairman Powell are encouraging. But last week's comments by, or two weeks ago, Fed Governor Waller saying that crypto is woven into the financial system and that the Fed itself is going to start looking at, you know, stable coin settlements and things like that, a lot more bullish and interesting. Still, like, I don't know, man. I'm not a fan of the Fed. I'm not going to do the whole, like, cheer for the Fed thing. The next big name, big face we got. Justin, 11 trillion, Charles Schwab, CEO confirms they're still launching Bitcoin trading in the first half of 2026.

We're having a lot of success in the crypto space. Let's see what he had to say. Come on. Let's do it. You're launching Bitcoin trading next year. How's that effort going? And what are you seeing so far in the plans? Well, we're having a lot of success in the crypto space. Our clients are engaged in it today. If you look at the exchange-traded products that are crypto-related, our clients actually own 20% of them. And our clients are coming to our research site 90% more than they were last year. So as a group, our clients are engaged in it, very interested in it.

And for most people, they're not actually going on to the blockchain to spend or use Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. And so for them, the exchange-traded product is a safe. and comfortable way for them to invest. All that said, we will get into stock crypto, and we plan to do that in the first half of next year, and we're thrilled about that because we know we have lots of clients

who have the vast majority of their assets at Schwab, but are holding some at digitally native firms and keep asking us to launch this so that they can bring their crypto assets to us, and we're thrilled to be able to do that. I think that's the really important part is obviously none of these institutions wanted to do this from the very beginning.

We know that, a few of them did, the fatalities of the world. But their clients are asking, they want to do it, they want to send their crypto over to Schwab and they want it to be a part of their portfolio so they can take a big ass loan and buy, borrow, and die and never pay that loan back and use it as part of their securities portfolio. Listen, we know that every institution in the world is coming, but it's nice to get further reinforcement that that is actually happening. Chuck Schwab, pretty big deal. I don't know if you know those guys, but pretty big deal. And finally, breaking 10 trillion BlackRock CEO, Larry Fink says tokenization is probably the most important component in the evolution. of the world's financial plumbing. That is a lot of big meaningful words in one sentence. Should we see what he had to say?

Here's Big Larry, let's go, who Andrew on Tuesday said he has a think kink for it. Opportunity for tokenization is probably the most important component of how we are going to see the evolution of the financial plumbing of the world. And the reality is, if we could tokenize all our ETFs, all $5.3 trillion of our ETFs, and provide that in a digital wallet, you could seamlessly without fees going from a digital currency or a stable coin or whatever that may be in your digital wallet and buy bond or stocks. And I believe that is going to be the future.

Yeah, I mean, Larry's obviously a mega-gigga super epic bull on the crypto space, but I think it is notable as people continue to just talk about the most successful ETF of all time, which is BlackRock's Ibit and Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. He's been talking about tokenization for just as long, and BlackRock is clearly trying to lead the way on that. We can have a very long discussion about whether we want Wall Street and these institutions and the government. government to be the ones tokenizing our assets for trading in the future or whether we would prefer that to be decentralized and coming from a crypto native side. But either way, I think it's fair to say that this is happening and there will be some way eventually to capture that value for us lowly retail traders who, until now, basically, just get liquidated. Worst bull market ever, as I've said. And we'll talk about that in a little while. And listen,

I think a reason that we've been chopping sideways, we have Bitcoin trading right around $100,000, if we're being intellectually honest, obviously, is the government shut down the longest of all time already. But the Senate will vote today to advance a deal aimed at ending the U.S. government shutdown. Spoiler, probably won't get it done. But either way, you can debate which party did it, who said who to what, who slapped who, who kissed, who, who played seven minutes, you know, heaven and sit in the closet or whatever that game was when we were kids. Doesn't really matter who's at fault. They're all at fault because our government just sucks at getting things done.

But while this is happening, we can't get more movement on the Clarity Act, which sucks because that was supposed to be done already and giving us market structure. SEC is working with a skeleton staff and can barely get ETFs approved, which has, by the way, been kind of good for Solana because they launched the Salana staking ETF BitWise, which has been wildly successful. We can talk about that relative to every other crypto or every other ETF in general launch this year, and they're not getting much competition, even though we do have speculation, there will be an XRP spot ETF next week.

But the government shutdown is obviously slowing all of the momentum that we had in this industry, and they need to unshut it down. I mean, this government shutdown is getting ugly. For those of you who are not in the United States, here's some stats. 42 million people face interruption of SNAP. Go donate food to your local food bank. If you can, people are going to starve. Non-political, just if you don't want to see extremely hungry children.

Give them some of your extra food. 3.5 million people have seen airfare disruptions. I got an email yesterday. United is canceling flights. One of my friends had his flight canceled on JetBlue, get to the airport three to four hours early. These TSA employees and air traffic controllers are not even getting paid and 20 to 40% of them are not showing up.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster. 750,000 employees furloughed. 5,000 flights set to be canceled per day. That's going to increase each day. 15 billion in U.S. GDP loss per week. 10 billion of SNAP payment at risk. risk, 23% of federal employees set to be furloughed, 10% reduction in flight capacity at 40 airports, day 37 of the government shutdown has a ride. That just seems bad. Nobody wants to do all that.

It's terrible. And meanwhile, while the poor are suffering and air traffic controllers are showing up for quintuple shifts and not getting paid, the top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class. Crypto is supposed to solve this. I'm not convinced it will if everybody just buys, you know, BlackRock and Charles Schwab denominated funds and tokenized assets. But that is a pretty astounding stat to throw in here right in the middle of all of this nonsense. And perhaps the biggest story, it's weird, right? There's no news this week. Find it very weird that there's no news this week. But we do have this. We saw this before. Bitcoin shaken by long-term holders dumping $45 billion. This was on that move down just a few

days ago. On that dump, we had $45 billion, but we know that in the previous 30 days, 400,000 tokens were sold by long-term holders to all of us who want to buy the dip and to the institutions and Wall Street and governments and all of their friends. But there is no question. These dudes are dumping their faces off and they're dumping on our faces. OG Bitcoin whales are dumping. This chart gives a good visual of how many super whales got to be a super whale are cashing out of Bitcoin. All, lines here are seven plus year on-chain spends from pre-2018 era OG Bitcoin holders. Orange is 100 million OG dumps. Red, 500 million OG dumps. The chart is very colorful in

2025. OGs are cashing out. These guys are getting busy. Now, we can't say we talk about it. It's all conjecture. Like, do they know something we don't know? Yeah, they know that they're really fucking rich. And I think that if we're being intellectually honest, every single one of us, If we were sitting on like $10, $15, $20 billion in Bitcoin, we had never sold and we're like living in a small apartment, driving a Camry because we never wanted to sell, would probably go get a yacht and chill and sell some Bitcoin. So this doesn't worry me that much to be quite honest, but it's a fact. These dues are selling and they are selling it to us. Let's talk about those ETF. Bitcoin ETF snap six-day outflow streak with 240 million inflows.

Six days of outflows over the past, over the past, you know, a week or so. not great. And now finally, 240 million in inflows coming right back in just a day later. That is a good thing. And I have a tweet here, though, that I think you will find relatively interesting to follow that up. Good morning, guys. Salana ETF flow continues with its streak of inflows, now eight straight days. During those historic outflows that we've had while there's been pain and death and misery in the market, Solana ETF, obviously, which is new and has staking, just seen inflows every single day. I think that's pretty crazy, to be honest.

I would not necessarily have expected that to be the case, but the party just keeps going, showing that there is definitely appetite on Wall Street and beyond for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, at least exposure to them. Now, here comes this. Can't even see it, can you? Bitcoin Bull Run hasn't started yet.

January 3rd, Samson, now. So I don't think that this end of itself is, like incredible news or an announcement, but he said, OG's selling or overblown, those fears, and traders should focus on the next bull run rather than self-owning themselves. I don't feel self-owned.

That's because I'm buying and not selling. Do you guys feel self-owned? That one hurts. But this does lead to something that I want to discuss, and we'll be hashed out much further in tomorrow's podcast with Rand, and this was sort of, we talked for an hour, And the grand conclusion at the end was this, right?

You can take a look at the wayback machine or corn market cap to the prices of January 1st or the first week of this year. The reality is Bitcoin went over $100,000 at the end of 2024 and we're at $100,000 now. Ethereum was trading higher at the beginning of the year. Salana was trading much higher at the end of the year than it is now. And we know that every other Alcoin is down bad bad. like, you know, 80%, 70%, 40%.

So if in the calendar year of 2025, Bitcoin is completely flat, not even outpacing inflation, as he points out here. Literally if you bought it and didn't do anything in between, you're not even outpacing inflation right now if you bought it at the end of the year. And all coins are down. Have we been completely wrong about this being a bull market?

Yes, yes. There's no question. You can't look at that. And listen, I never kind of looked back to the beginning of the year until I was talking to Rand and thought about how long it's been that we've effectively gone from, you know, we went 100 up to 120 110 all the way back to 75 in that period, which was an awesome buy opportunity, back up to 126 and chopped around in this whole area. But if you just zoom out and look at what the prices were basically a year ago, certainly at the beginning of the year, everything is down. So 2025 has basically either been, I wouldn't say, a light bare market, but I would say that 2025, while we've been screaming the bull market, maybe has just been sideways chop. So that begs the question, was there a bull market that we completely missed at some point here?

Probably not. Or is there going to be no bull market? That's one argument. Or have we literally not even hit the bull market yet? If you don't believe in the four-year cycle and you believe more liquidity, is going to come, especially after the shutdown and with business cycles and election cycles, then there should be more liquidity coming in. And maybe we have not even started having a bull run yet.

Listen, maybe you're all coins are dead, going to Hades, never coming back. I have no idea. This guy points out Zcash is killing it. What are you talking about? Zcash, new value up 604 this week, 10th this year. Everything is down as wrong. Dude, listen, B&B had a run. Solana, like I said, was way up at the beginning of the year because of meme coin Z.

DeCash is having its run and now is the new Bitcoin. Yes, I hear you. You can have a bare market, you can have literally a miserable bare market in stocks and then point to the three or four or 10 or 50 companies that are up. If you're looking at the space, everything being non-specific is down. It's been miserable. Yes, Zcash is doing exceptionally well. Okay. I'm not talking about outliers. I'm talking about as a market. Unless you happen to be the guy who bought Zcash right before this run, you're probably down. And if you bought any crypto-related stocks towards the top, you're probably down. If you bought any of those IPOs, you're probably down. So right now, I would say we've been in a really sideways market that's been bleeding, and hopefully a bull run

is yet to come. But I guess the Grand Theses is at 2025, not that much of a bull run. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I don't even know if this is worth discussing, but hey, here we are. breaking Michael Burry goes short on Palantir and Vidia. Yeah, Zion Capital just bought put options on a million of video shares and five million Palantir. Well, Palantir is crashing since his public filing down $73 billion in market cap.

This, of course, the guy who was super right about the big short that they'm so right that they made a whole movie about him and about it, but has been a pretty super wrong since. But I think it's very interesting that there are people that are willing to put massive money into the market believing that tech is topping what that would do to bitcoin i have no idea but yeah walter white saying good to hear accepting we were wrong yeah listen you welcome to uh the world so there's people in the world who have a thesis and then no information

in the world can change that thesis and so they end up emotionally tied to their thing whether that be a token or a narrative or their cycle views and they never give up until they're poor. Listen, like, you can't look back at 2025 objectively and be like, wow, raging bull market, man, that was awesome. It's bad. Most people are down. That's a fact. So it felt like a bull market for a lot of it.

And then we were like, yeah, at the beginning, you know, things had gone up, back down to 75, all the way back up. And then in the summer, you're like, well, it's the summer doldrums and it's bad. But like October down, we'll see what happens. in November. Right now, just doesn't feel that great. And I don't think you can objectively scream about this amazing bull market that we have been a part of. But like I said, maybe that means, you know, 100 or wherever it goes down to here. If it continues down, 75, who knows? Maybe these are the depths, the real opportunities to buy before the next bull run. Because if you look at all this

new Schwab, Fink, Powell, everybody else, if you look at them, like there's nothing but good news here. Nothing but good news here. The only thing that could drag Bitcoin down it would be temporary is if we go into like a massive recession or Great Depression, but they won't even let you know that there's one if there is the lie. Yeah, if the stock market goes down 20%, Bitcoin might go down 30%. Oh well, but what do you want to buy if that happens, Bitcoin and ride it all the way up? Bitbilly says that we're a downer. I'm not saying we're going into a bare market at all. I'm saying we're actually probably going into a bull market. How's that a downer? Looking back and saying shit wasn't good, like, which is not even debatable, is not a downer.

Yeah. DJNet asking how my arch public is doing, absolutely crushing it. I think I'm down 9% on the entire dip on the whole portfolio while the market is down 27% and bought, was buying more this morning. It's amazing. Amazing. I don't know if you were like, uh, trolling or being serious, but it's amazing. It's amazing.

I'm sure I have a chart. Like I know it bought some more salon this morning. I had sold some yesterday, and then it went down and bought some more. I mean, it's awesome. It's awesome. He's serious. He's serious. It's doing great.

It doesn't matter. Whatever. Someone had commented Scott was giddy at 1.26K, so take profits. That is wildly unfactual. Now maybe our titles were giddy because we make big titles. But I went on Market Mavericks on October 9th, the day before the crash, when Mike McLaughone said, you know, sell everything kind of famously. And we were at 126. I said we have overbought conditions, bearish diversions.

And my expectation is that we chop between $100 and $126,000 for a while. I'm now going to go, because we're doing this, I'm going to go find the video. I don't know where that is. I don't know if I'm going to be able to find it. But we can try. I don't know if I'm going to be able to find it. That could be a lot of digging. But yeah, I did.

And it's, I've shared it a number of times on my X feed. It's what I said. I said there was too much euphoria. It was a weak break of the all-time high and that I thought we were going to head down. And listen, I'm often wrong. Like, it's not, I'm not trying to say like I'm always right. But that one, I didn't think we were breaking to new highs. I actually thought we'd come down to 100.

And now 100 feels the exact same way 126 did on the other side. Like the same level of fear relative to the euphoria. I'm a big buyer here. That's it. Even if it goes down further, don't really care. Guys, that's all I've got for you today. We missed NLW, but we got through it. And to be honest, there were five stories to talk about this week.

So I just kind of talked about what's happening right now. I hope that you all have an amazing, amazing weekend. And we will be back for Macro Monday, the greatest show in the history of television and entertainment. You guys are the best. Thanks for showing up. Love y'all. See you soon. Peace.