The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Falls To $82K After ETFs Just Bought $2.4 BILLION

Episode Date: September 28, 2026

Bitcoin falls back toward $83K despite a massive $2.4B week for ETF inflows, as oil spikes above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield surges to 5.2%. We also cover Trump considering a diesel export ban, California cracking down on political memecoins, and Bitget recovering from a $352M hack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Where some see heroes and others see egos. Bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. Learn more at Bloomberg.com. Bitcoin dropped to nearly $82,000 after a week that saw the largest Bitcoin ETF inflows since October 2025, around $2.4 billion. So we have price dropping. while institutional and retail buying is arguably increasing.

A lot of this obviously ties to everything that's happening in the macro, which we will discuss today with Mike, Dave, and David Young. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the show. Happy Macro Monday to all of you. We're going to bring on Mike, Dave, and David Young today. Welcome, gentlemen.

A lot going on. Mike. you're the first to unpack it. Let's go. Thank you. And good morning, Dave. Both daves. The first Iowa jersey came on. His quote about this multi-decade highs and yields is what stops it. And he says he's not seen a lot of leverage long bets, seen mostly de-leveraging potential for more flattening of the curve. His key level on the tenure note, which right now at 522 is 532, it's a pretty significant level for him. He expects to see pretty significant nibbles near there's levels.

He says lots flowing into money markets. About $8 trillion. He fully expects a lot of that to go to things like two-year-notes at yielding almost 5%. I'm expecting more bare flattening to the curve. Nominal GDP growth is the main driver, but markets not pricing for an uptick inflation. It fully expects the Fed to get inflation under control. Chris Kane, our equity strategist pointed out, just as Ira pointed out, too, the stock's holding up really well is what's really also pushing up yields.

current factor. Chris Cain just pointed out, Manempton still fine, but he pointed out one key thing that's happening, that earnings are kicking in for 3Q in the beginning of October. And he just gave Micron as an example.

Micron's earning per share is up 10x from this time of year ago. It's pretty amazing. David Santana, who came in on foreign exchange, he just pointed out the elections in Brazil. And then Andrew Sasha, her economist,

said, deployment rate is probably going to be close to 80,000. He's expecting it's kind of there with the consensus. Expects the right to probably pick up the 4.2%. It's October 28th for that mating is still priced for 70% of a hike. He thinks the data this week will probably push it back towards 50-50. PC is coming out. He's looking for 0.3 tenths of percent, which is kind of consensus.

It might be reduced a little bit lower in the year-over-year. is at 3.7%. I spoke about commodities, which are all about energy, but I pointed out the fact today that gold's down 3%. And crudeals up 2%. Gold might be mattering more. And I brained IRA and the treasury yields for the energy market's breaking stuff. Energy markets contrises will break stuff. It hasn't broken the stock market yet, but certainly breaking the bond market. It's just a question of how far the surge goes before the purge. Because part of this is, First of all, we're seeing the demand destruction faces everywhere. Massive supply coming out of the U.S., decreasing demand from China.

And what usually happens, you get that high-price cure. Just the question of higher it will be. And then we also have midterm elections coming up. This whole situation is based on the decisions of one human being. President Trump was getting quite desperate, and his party is pushing completely against him in the midterms. If he doesn't do something soon, there'll be something done after the midterms. Meaning if you want to get elected now, one of the best things to do is push back in the war, inflation, and even mistridden. Trump, unfortunately. That's just the way we've cycled. So he's got to find something to do.

Diesel exports, I don't know. But then I point out in commodities, the key theme is what's really happening in metals is that two, that five percent, almost five percent in that two, you know, it's just too high, Fed tightening. The key thing is, and it's never fight the Fed. That's a key pressure on cryptos and Bitcoin and metals. And the one that's really at, we're at next on the list that might be on that pump, then dump list so far, which includes Bitcoin, gold, silver, platinum, plate of Myron ore is copper. Still keeping my eye on copper. I expect that's the one that's going to have the problem and get smacked a little bit. Just follow the trend. Back to you. All right. There was a lot of things there we can start at. So listen, it was funny when I checked

the crude price prices this morning. It was 108 or something. Now it's 99. So obviously that's coming off the highs. Gold prices, Mike you pointed out, break below 4,200, gold down over 3% today. You think that's kind of the big signal. A lot of that obviously tied to U.S. 10, your Treasury here at 5.2-2-1%. Bessent has got to be pooping his pants right now. I mean, this is bad, bad, bad, right? I mean, I don't even know what direction to go in, obviously, we'll get to Bitcoin. I think that's kind of trading like gold at the moment, 83,000, we're 60, as I'm seeing it here.

But it seems like there is a lot of macro pressure on risk assets right now. I mean, either, Dave, jump in. well i mean i i i found like a broken record and it's i find it amusing uh yes the long bond is moving higher yes it is at a price that is making the federal budget deficit oh you know at this point about given the effect it's some closer to 50 basis points move somewhere between a hundred and two hundred billion dollars a year more deficit to fund uh the fed is absolutely trying to keep their credibility to keep the long bond from absolutely exploding. But you also have to look at what's going on in Japan with their yield.

And that's a big deal. And the currencies and all the stuff going on around it, it's all kind of tied. I mean, I keep saying to Mike that being bond bullish is actually the same thing as being Bitcoin bullish. If there were to be a big rally in bonds, it would benefit Bitcoin more. because for all host of reasons, but if you're incredibly bearish on bonds, then you can make an argument that that will be destructive for what we term risk assets. I will, however, report something, and we're now coming up on the one-year anniversary of a complete delinking

between Bitcoin and risk assets. In fact, all of crypto and the rest of risk assets, where the crypto markets got absolutely hammered, while stock markets and other risk markets did extremely well. And so to say that it can't be going opposite directions is wrong. They can. But obviously, if you're having a massive sell-off, it won't. So if risk markets, the stock market keeps doing what it's doing, which is meandering, which is rewarding companies whose earnings are going much better and punishing ones who aren't. But more or less, the indexes are kind of chopping around pretty close to the highs. If that stays, then there's no reason to be looking at that as destructive. You know, gold has become ridiculously volatile because of that hot ball of money, but yet,

if you look at the range gold has been in over the last end number of months, and I haven't done of the research this morning, I won't lie about that, but between somewhere around 4,100 and 4,400, it's been chopping around, volatily, but it's been chopping around. It's still been in the same range. And it didn't violate the range last night. It just kind of plunge right back down towards the bottom of its range. And so a lot of momentum traders are trading that. The real question that you have to ask is what will happen with liquidity, because the one thing we do know is liquidity up until very recently, and I'm not sure what I haven't seen the last week's data, has been moving higher. And while rates are going up, okay, that's fine. But the market is the one that forced the

Fed's hand. I personally, you and I don't think they should. have raised, but they did because they did not want to, quote, disappoint the market, which was already pushing rates up. And so nothing really has changed. The only thing that has changed is more and more silliness. I mean, I titled, you know, I saw this tweet about the fact that they're about to release a new America.gov website. And all the internet went crazy saying it's going to be a doomsday clock, you know, kind of like remember independent states got, you know, and And this is the world we live in, people waiting for something just horrendously bad to happen. I mean, obviously bad things can't happen, but it seems extraordinarily unlikely.

And that's sort of the, that's the mentality that we're seeing going on in market. So, you know, if you step back, I mean, last week, Bitcoin was what, at 84. Now it's at 83. You know, we were, for the three weeks before that, it was at 78. So it really hasn't done a whole lot. Bitcoin is sort of like copper, as Mike says. It's kind of hanging around, you know, towards the high end of its recent range, although in Copper's case, its recent range is more of a historic range.

But I think you have to put all the stuff in perspective. Yeah, I'm taking a look at the gold chart. I think, you know, let me bring it up really quickly. I think Bulls would tell you we're in a bull flag, right? And Bears would tell you that we've had one, two, three, four, basically six or seven weeks of downtrend now and, you know, get down below here and you're in a bear market. So, you know, that, that, yeah, and I go back to, I mean, go, go back six months instead of however long that was. That's why you'd say it was a bull flag, right? Because you have a, I don't know if it's a bull flag or if we're just, if it's in a range and it's going to bounce back and forth for a while.

I mean, gold is capable of staying in a range for a very long time. Yeah, like decades. David, what do you think? Yeah, it's funny. Like, how do you square the circle? because you, Mike, Dave, all through a ton of things at this because there's a lot of things going on. I mean, there's really only one question that I think really matters right now, which is, should you worry about higher yields right now as an investor?

And that, of course, kind of depends on what asset class you have. Are you holding stocks? Are you holding crypto? But the problem is that we are looking at this picture and saying, like, there's a thousand things that's kind of contributing to this move. It's what, like, Besson's doing because he's been trying to play with the treasury yield curve. and he's failing at this, and it's the Fed hiking rates, and is there another rate hike here? And what about the AI boom?

Is it going to bust on us? And there's all these kinds of things. And in the middle of that, there's a war. And so we're talking about inflation expectations. Honestly, I think that most of those things are red herring. I think that this, for example, is not an inflation expectations move. I don't think this is about what's going on with oil prices. I mean, in fact, if you're looking at inflation breakheavens right now, they're falling.

Despite the fact that oil prices have been incrementally rising. Of course, as you said this morning, it kind of dropped again. But it's been in this kind of seesaw pattern. That is not what's driving this. I wish it was because then we were like, oh, then we'd have like a very clear answer. And we can just say like, okay, right home tomorrow. Well, this is the problem. And this means that we need to treat risk X, Y, and Z.

But what I think is happening is that this sell off in the treasury curve is a real yield move. And if that's the case, then I think what we need to be paying attention to is what's happening with the growth story. And we got the S&P comments from last week, for example, saying that the U.S. is actually overheating in some ways in its growth. And if that's the case, and that's what's contributing to inflation, this isn't necessarily the worst picture. Like what I think is happening with the Fed, for example, is that these are insurance hikes. I think I said the same thing last time I was here because, you know, like I played devil's advocate and said like, what if there were to be a Fed hike? Would this be like the end of all things? We've clearly seen that after the rate hike, it wasn't in part because we know this isn't a trend of the Fed constantly hiking rates.

So I think that this is a management of the yield curve, which granted, it's not great because this is like a 19 year high on the 10 year and the 30 year. but I think that if we're thinking about the risk picture, this is not the problem that's kind of taking us out. This is not what's contributing also to why Bitcoin dropped over the last two days. Can you explain what the real yield move means? Yeah. So it's obviously like most people are paying attention to the nominal rate because if you're looking at the nominal rate,

you're like, oh man, it's pushing above 5%. That's very scary. You're looking at the real yield, which is, you know, like I'm trained. in bonds. That's just my history. And typically what you're doing is you're looking at the difference between the nominal and the inflation linked bonds so that you get the real yield. So you actually care about whether this is moving away from like two and a half percent up to like, you know, one percentage point higher or lower because depending on where inflation goes, your real yield is what you're actually earning. So this is what is the most important number.

it's not necessarily the nominal, which is what, of course, the news wants to report. Anyone? Dave, Mike? I just want to add to that and just to push back a little bit on what Dave said. I think the key theme that's happening now is this is the macro situation kicking in where we are way overdue for some normal volatility. Now we're seeing that happen. It's the volatility season time of year. We all know it was about two weeks from now that crypto's peak last year.

And they're still in a pretty severe bear market, despite the S&P 500. up 15%. They're complete stock puppets so far. If the stock market drops 15%, the whole crypto space will drop me about drop 30%. A Bitcoin might drop a little bit less. But that's the key thing I'm pointing out now. We're getting now, and Dave touched on, and we're getting equity-like returns in that 10-year-note yield. For the first time, and for some lot of investors who haven't seen these things in a quarter century, this is part towards the end game. But we're also happening the situation we're having a global energy crisis, which we know break stuff. It's breaking stuff. It's breaking the bond market.

And central banks are hiking, the Federal Reserve is hiking. We're going to look back from the future and say, yeah, that was a pretty good sign of the peak, the wrong thing to do, just like Europe did in 2008 and 2011, when they hiked rates, when they should have been cutting rates. So to me, this is part of that macro kicking in. Bitcoin is a good leading indicator. It's still bare market heading lower, despite the stock market going up. Gold's had its run.

Silver's had its run. Metals had its run. Copper is a complete stock puppet. If stocks go up, maybe it can inch higher. And now we're all just a bunch of stock puppets. And that's where it's volatile season. And I look at it is there's one good solution. If we wake up and crude oil drops back to its cost of production, the U.S. is around $55 a barrel, which is a matter of time.

It's a question of when that happens and how it happens. That'll be bullish for everything, certainly for bonds and yields. But it's a question of what happens with the stock market eventually. So I look at right now is cryptos and metals are complete stock puppets. At least the metals have had a decent year in that environment. Can't say that for cryptos. So what happens when that stock puppet elevation reverses? See, this is why I disagree with because I think that.

So what I'm acknowledging is that we have seen a real yield shock. Like, that's no surprise. Like, we've seen like real yields go up by 50 basis points. Like, obviously, there's something being impacted. The question I think we need to ask is what is contributing to that? Because if this is a fiscal blowup, then we have a huge problem. If this is because we're on a trend for like higher rate, and this is going to continue on for another like four or five, six meetings, we have a problem.

If this is because this is nominal GDP and, you know, yields actually, like sitting at equilibrium, yields going higher because growth is actually increasing because we're kind of pricing that in and like the inflation trend as a result over the long term, not thinking over the short period hit by oil prices, then this could actually be considered. just equilibrium levels that could be good for risk. So I'm not saying that like we are not going to actually, you know, have some retracement in some of these things. In fact, I think that that's kind of what's happening with Bitcoin and we can kind of get

into that because I think a lot of that has to do with profit taking and short gam positions held by the dealers. But I think that right now the level of yields can actually rise without the inflation story being the key here. And I think that it can actually go up while risk actually does. fairly well. I think that this is going to be a short-term problem, not a longer-term, medium-term issue. Dave. Well, there's two things. I mean, the sock puppet narrative is just nonsense. I mean, the correlations are

less than half. What? Stock puppet. Stock puppet. Stock puppet is his new term. I liked it. Okay. Yeah. I mean, what's interesting is when you look at the correlation, the intraday correlation is really crap. The interday correlation is relatively high. So what you see is Bitcoin goes off and does whatever it's going to move while it's trading overnight. And its comparison, it's closed to open volatility, if you look at it from the U.S. Open or correlation is actually, it has not been very good, obviously, because you can look at the total of the levels of where it is. But it's

correlation during the trading day when there are movements is actually relatively high. And that's very different. So we always talk about Bitcoin in a certain way, and it's actually very true, which is the number that people use is 10, whether it's 10 or 15, it doesn't matter. But that's the number of days that encapsulates the move that matters for the entire year. So like we had a three-day move of $20,000. We had a one-day move of $5,000 all within the last six weeks, except for the rest of that six weeks, it didn't move at all. But what it did do is during the day, it moved in the same direction at the S&P.

But in those days, it didn't. And the correlation was completely broken. This is not a stock puppet or anything like that. It is an asset that is part of the global trading marketplace that when traders are awake and they're trading at the direction of the move, although the magnitude is different. the direction of the move tends to be the same. If you trade that way, if you trade based on observed beta, one of the things you'll know, and I used to run a book at 2 Sigma where we had 15 different correlations

that we would match in order to try to keep our book balanced. And one of the first things you know when you study beta is they are notoriously unstable. And there are certain assets which drive you absolutely crazy. One of the assets that back in those years, that was the biggest problem was real estate. So REITs would move directionally the same. And the math would say that it's correlated more or less where Bitcoin is, 0.49, 0.48, whatever. It would be somewhere just a little bit below 0.5 correlation. But the beta would move from, you know, sticks to negative to, I mean, it would be all over the place.

And that made it very difficult to hedge to the point where we had to, pull real estate out of portfolios because there was no way to put it within it because it would get masked. And you could have a pretty small percentage of your portfolio causing really adverse risk. If you trade Bitcoin in any way or crypto in any way other than that relative to a stock portfolio, you get monkey hammered. I mean, you absolutely get carried out because you can't. And so we tend to make these talks about these macro correlations that just aren't true. But look, the truth is, if Bitcoin marches to its own drummer, it has done so for 15 years. And whether you believe in this four-year cycle being handed down from, you know, Satoshi at some mountain and tablets to the Bitcoin gods or not, I am a knot, so that's why I'm making fun of it.

But, you know, whatever you believe, the observed fact is that Bitcoin has its own pattern around its adoption curve. Now, why am I mentioning that? I'm saying it because Mike started by talking about something called Micron. Now, Micron is a stock that was very high-flying relative and looked very expensive in every metric a year ago, and all of a sudden today doesn't look so expensive. It's done extraordinarily well, but it does look so extensive because its earnings have just absolutely gone crazy. And at the end of the day, stocks move on fundamentals, Scott. All assets move on some version of fundamentals. But I would say, I would change that to say assets today move more on narratives than anything else. But the narrative is what's described in the quote fundamental.

So people believe SpaceX is going to own the most important frontier of power generation, of data centers, of exploration and mineral rights, etc. It hasn't manifested in earnings yet, but that's the story. It's a fundamental story. People buy Bitcoin because they believe it has a higher probability than the market is saying it has of becoming digital gold and beyond, a new monetary standard. And the market's pricing that at somewhere still, well less than 5%. And so people look at that asymmetric bet and they buy it. And so you see more and more adoption and you see adoption courage. You see people, I'm going to be at the Bitcoin Treasury Conference today in New York.

that's why I have this on them. I'm in a hotel. But, you know, people there are buying Bitcoin because they think it is a long-term outperformance and narrative. And that power law is relative. And so what we saw last year was a fall below the value of the narrative that careened from 126 down to, you know, 60, a little bit below. I personally was wrong last year. I thought that it would kind of find support in the high 80s, and I was wrong. It went well below it. Well, guess what? We're now kind of sitting right up against where I thought would be support, and now it's resistance. And that's what happens. A few weeks ago, we all thought resistance was in the high 70s. And now that's kind of functioning as support based on a lot of technical guys. These sorts of things go cyclically.

But the point is you can't ignore the fundamentals. And the charts that do are going to be problematic. And so when David is talking about real rates, that's very important. Real rates are inflation or rates over inflation, and real rates are a drag on excess investment. And so high real rates make it more expensive to deploy capital. So the real question is, what does that mean for the AI boom, which is very, very real, right? People will probably overinvest in certain aspects of it. but it is making enormous changes throughout the economy. But that is the fundamental question when you're investing is what does,

what's the hurdle rate for that investment? And that's why, you know, you could make an argument. That's why gold fell, but I still think it's just in the range. It's just gold fell because gold fell. But yeah, that that is the argument that as real rates go higher,

it gives you a higher hurdle rate. And so Mike's point is true. If the, if you can get, if there is a real. turn perceived over 10 years in bonds at 5%. Then that's helpful. I think a lot of people would worry about that.

But if that's what it takes, that's what it takes. Does that make sense? It does. And I think you talked about people buying Bitcoin, so it's a nice segue. We have strategy has acquired 1665 Bitcoin and repurchase 152 million of STRC. This was all done by selling MSTR this week. So, you know, we can have the dilution argument. But this week, they used a tiny bit of that new cash reserve to buy a bit of this, but mostly it was funded by MSTR.

But then, of course, the bigger story, Bitcoin ETFs turned positive for 2026 with 2.4 billion weekly inflow their largest since October. So sort of as I mentioned there in the intro, and David, I would love your opinion on this. We had, you know, kind of Bitcoin topping up in the high 80s after, you know, breaking above the 50 moving average and making a new higher high and sort of killing. the bearer market argument. Now coming back to retest those, but doing it with massive inflows behind it. Yeah. And I think one thing that you didn't mention in that, and it's not in the headline, I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to. And I think Bloomberg did actually mention this, James Aford anyway, said that we've now reclaimed the $81, $82,000 average cost bases for those ETF holders. And I think that part is what's important because that, I think, is what's driving the price action over the last 24 to 48 hours because it's huge.

But then it's very hard to reconcile of, well, if we're flipping positive on all these flows, then why is it that we were down $2,000 on Bitcoin or whatever it was, like $2,000, $3,000? And the big part has to do with the fact that people want to take profits when they actually reclaim those levels because they're like, oh, man, I've been holding this forever. like, you know, like, what's that? They're like, I'm up. Get me out of here. Yeah.

And they're not like your, maybe your average or not, I wouldn't say average, but like probably like the Bitcoin holders that would listen to the show, which are like, are you kidding us? Because we've been holding for like 10 years. Like, what are you talking about? You've held it for like two years. But, you know, they probably are like, oh, we need to like, you know, sell some because we've probably reclaimed the, that cost basis.

And on the other side of that, like I said, You also have a lot of dealers who are now kind of sitting on short-gown positions on Bitcoin. So probably the combination of the two is kind of what's dragged us a little bit lower. But this is obviously an unequivocal good for Bitcoin. And I think that probably you'll see it reset here. And I wouldn't expect it to like reset below 80. For example, I think it's probably going to get to the 80 level again. And you're going to start seeing buyers come in.

But I would expect that this is a place where you're going to see more accumulation. rather than people trying to capitulate. I mean, this current move down to this price is still in the realm of healthy retraced, right? I mean, you broke that line at 82,800, and two days in the last five, it's been tested as support. I know not everybody cares about technicals, but if you do, that is exactly what you are looking for to confirm that this sort of break to a new higher high is real. I mean, you take a look at the weekly, and we now have two weekly closes above that 50, right and still holding that line so I you know I think from a technical perspective the bear

market is over Mike I know you'd probably push back on that you know you would say if I'm assuming you based on the percentage that it's still down it can still be obviously in a technical bare market it just depends on how you look at it but I think you have to at least say hey this thing is now trading above all of its meaningful moving averages it's made a higher high there's a lot of reasons to believe that this move has been confirmed. So Bitcoin's glory days are over. We have to be very careful from a macroeconomic strategist like me who jumped into and loved it. When we're in this environment when the Fed's pumping a lot of money in the system,

we had the biggest money pumping history. It was cheap and there was only a couple thousand of them like gold and Bitcoin. Those are the things buying 2020. It's exact opposite now. The Fed's hiking. Every central bank in the planet is hiking. And we still haven't had the test. Bitcoin's already flunked the test. First of all, got to 100,000, got to two high plateau.

It's brought all the other bogus coins with it. Didn't need a purge. They're just getting started. We've still seen a purge. We're almost a year after that purge started. We've had a bounce. It's a gift to sell. I still think you've got to be careful what's happening in this space. Five years now it's trades at three times of volatile S&B 500 and it's underperforming. Your typical money manager looks like that guilty here, FRM, is that's a dot of an asset. Show me it's going to change. I don't see it. So I see the. down 5% in the year, S&P 500 up 16% a year. It's still another dud.

Three or four years in a row now. Sure, we have people jumping on board, but we should get a lot of those people who are coming off chain to get the safety of an ETF. And the key thing is, why did I stop watching gold ETF signals? Because they gave me a tremendous single in 2012, 2012. Now they don't matter. It's a macro that matters.

5% on the 10-0 is all that matters. And you should be selling gold and Bitcoin and rallies. That usually happens, particularly assets that go up way too much, you have no income. The difference with gold is it's a bunch of dogs. With Bitcoin, it's among a bunch of pigeons. We've got to purge those. It's just getting started. You see the stock market go down. You're going to see that stock puppet kicking in, and we haven't even seen yet. It's sort of showing it's nothing but a stock puppet so far. Down in the air, stock market's up. Give me the stock market down. Before you interrupt me, Dave, I know you're going to do

it. Just give me the test, Dave. Give me a 10% drop in S&B 500 and see what Bitcoin does. And maybe I can get bullish again. But again, this is within a space of unlimited supply. the glory days are over. We've had ETFs. We've had Trump kick in. And what's happening to Trump now? Getting pushed back weighing the polls. This is the trade's over. Except for that's actually extraordinarily bullish for Bitcoin. I mean, look, I missed two narratives last year. There's two reasons why Bitcoin fell from, and I'm not saying from 126. So the 126 down to the high 80s, 90s was, you know, typical Bitcoin cycles, et cetera. you know, it was not the hot money it came along, but there are two things that we missed. One, and both narratives are fading, one because of time and one because it was stupid to begin with.

One who was quantum. Lots of people basically said, oh, well, Bitcoin can't defend itself against quantum. Now we have, not only is there a lot more question as to whether you'll be able to break quantum. Quantum cryptography can get enough stable qubits like ever, like, you know, in terms of the physics. But more importantly, there's at least two proposed solutions that most people agree would safeguard Bitcoin cryptography against it. And so you're not seeing that narrative nearly as important. That matters. But the second narrative, which is the one that I miss completely, is half the country, actually probably more, half the world was turned off crypto because they identified it with Trump. And that has a time decay, right?

He only has two more years. We're going to have the midterm elections. how many people will do that. I mean, there was a time when people would not buy R.J. Reynolds and Philip Morris because of all the bad press on cancer, most portfolio managers for a while, most portfolio managers disagreed. Then there was this whole ESG thing and they got purged. Their performance actually has been more or less in line since then because, you know,

effectively people said, well, okay, it's more about earnings than it is about anything else. You know, Bitcoin will be more about adoption. And there's lots of reasons to talk about that. But every time you say infinite supply, you know, it's like part of your credibility dies because Bitcoin, in fact, is the single asset out there with no infinite supply. It's actually a clear, verifiable supply. Yeah, there is a supply concern with Bitcoin, no doubt. It is the old coins that are locked in wallet, Satoshi's, et cetera, whether they will ever come back,

whether from quantum or some other reason. But that's to me a non-event. That gets overblown by the Bitcoin community because look at SpaceX, look at any IPO. Every one of the tech companies has locked supply from insiders. So if Bitcoin has 20% of its lock supply are old insiders, okay, so what?

That puts it more or less the same as most of the best performing assets over the last two decades. So I don't see that as a problem. But that's not the same as infinite supply. what you're missing when you talk about millions of cryptos is the fact that every single asset is going to be on chain within the next 10 years probably a lot sooner than that all you have to do is I've been to multiple wall street conferences I'll be down for STA national in Washington everyone's

talking about tokenization why because the technology is superior than paper stock certificates full stop so now that everything is going to be tokenized comparing assets is let's look at the asset what is the difference between chain link and bitcoin well chain link which happens to be up today interestingly is a protocol that may or may not pass on its economics to its holders by the way i own chain link have for a long time and have been frustrated with it but the issue with chain link is it is a protocol that helps the on chain economy work full stop it's plumbing bitcoin isn't plumbing for the on-chain economy, it is a basic denominator for it. And that is very different. So, you know, we have this, a lot of people are coming along to the point of view that I've had.

That's, I think Scotch had as well. You know, people ask, you know, are you a Bitcoin maxi? It's like, no, I'm a monetary maxi, but I am not a total maxi. Why? Because there's lots of different value pockets within crypto. Now, do I believe that a lot of, quote, crypto assets are garbage? Yes. Do I believe that lots of OTC stocks are garbage? Yes. In fact, people love to speculate on garbage. That's just a fact. If you look at the way the pink sheets are, remember the Wolf of Wall Street, right? You know, Stratton-Ocmont, all those companies like that, there's no difference between that and when you start going beyond the top 10 or 15, 20 cryptos. Except for the difference is every once in a while, one of those weird cryptos that explodes

turns out to be something that becomes relevant to the mainstream, whereas it's almost never that an OTC stock gets graduated to NASDA. I mean, it happens, but it's really, really rare. And so I just hate that infinite supply argument. It just makes no sense to me. But other than that, you have to ask yourself about value. And that's where the fundamentals are different for different assets. And I think you have to look at it that way. Mike, you like that when you said the glory days of Bitcoin are over, I didn't have a chance, but, hey, I made this image for you of you as Bruce Springsteen. Thank you. Thank you. That's part of it. of what's from from but so you have to it's it's just what I love about people who are deeply in

this space and completely dependent on it going up to make more money which Dave just admitted he is and most people are I get that but the key thing to remember about this is from an outside standpoint there is an unlimited supply of what Bitcoin started it was one and now there's millions of cryptos we can't deny that but you try to demonize me by saying there's unlimited supply of crypto's I didn't say there's unlimited supply of Bitcoin but there is Bitcoin cash between Sosci's Satoshi Vision, Bitcoin gold. There's plenty of other knockoffs, which means, okay, well, there's more than this is one of them. The point is we've had our best run.

That 10 yields at 5.2%. It's telling you that's it. It's equity-like returns. Bitcoin is just a, you know, it's a number on a screen. That's the key thing that you miss about tokenization, Dave. When you get numbers on that screen are tokenized, say if you get B&Y melon next to Dogecoin, which I love them pointing out when Dogecoin was the same values, B&Y Mellon two years ago, which one you're going to buy, which one you're going to sell,

which has earnings. Micron has earnings. Every other asset, at least has a potential for earnings. Technology is working against the space. I think it's a waste of time to keep focusing this, partly because you can keep pushing back in my unlimited supply factor, but it's been right for almost a year now. So I'm looking forward to next week I'm going to be going to the Greenwich Economic Forum. And that Bitcoin panel last year got me so bearish.

I just saw 430 something speaking to a crowd of a bunch of. of 15-somethings, very wealthy people, worked hard to make their wealth all their lives, and they were so bullish on Bitcoin in the whole space. And I just looked around, a lot of people rolling their eyes. Now, this year, they asked me to moderate the panel. I can't wait to do that because I'm a former Bitcoin bull. It was very bullish. And now I see a space just like I saw in silver and gold that just got way too high. The difference is that has value going back many years. This space still needs a massive purge. It hasn't even, it's just getting started. And we haven't seen the test. So let's go through that test. Stock market down a little bit. What is the crypto

space do? Flush it all out. And then guys like me can get bullish again. And right now it's still, I don't see anything that stops that view yet. Like S&P 500 down 15% in the year and Bitcoin down 10%. No, that would be a bullseye. I kind of take issue with this because I was on the Greenwich Economic Forum, a Bitcoin panel, a crypto panel last year. So I'm like, I think that was me on stage. Regardless, nothing but bullish. Well, by the logic that you're professing, I mean, you're basically saying, I mean, we have an infinite amount of stocks if that's the logic that you're kind of going with. Well, you can't just take a whole ass to pass. What's the difference with stocks?

Dave, the difference in stocks is you have an index that has a survivor bias. You have an index in crypto and you can differentiate. But I'm not going to keep going down this rabble. I think I went down this path like last time as well. I mean, I would say that I mostly agree with Dave. I do kind of say that I don't think the two narratives you pointed out was why Bitcoin actually suffered in 2025. I think a lot of it had to do with the aftermath of 1010 and trying to rebuild technical structure. I mean, I don't disagree that quantum became a discussion that people had,

but I feel like it was a justification ex post that people had for why Bitcoin wasn't doing well rather than the cause. Because there were other chains, Solana, Ethereum. I think Ethereum was a definitely huge one because they were proposing a path to actually correcting quantum, had be quantum resistant, for example. And no one actually paid it any intention. And Eith, you know, just did as poorly as Bitcoin did. And maybe you could all say Bitcoin need to be a precondition for ETH to kind of do well because people kind of put in the same bucket.

Regardless, like, I don't think that's kind of what was driving it. I think that we were rebuilding market structure. It's taking us time to kind of get there. This is why, like, I was on a different podcast and they asked, oh, do you think that like, you know, Bitcoin needs to reclass? claim the de-dollarization theme in order to do well. And I said, no. Like, I think Bitcoin's going to do better, and it will do better irrespective of that. Now, ex post, we've kind of attached this de-dollarization narrative to it. And this kind of goes back to what Dave was

saying earlier, that like narratives matter and it matters a lot in the marketplace that we have right now. And that's not just crypto. That's stocks. That's everything that we're kind of dealing with right now. SpaceX is a good example of that. And, you know, I think that some people treat SpaceX as nothing more than a meme coin and it's kind of going up in the short term, but there's also this longer term narrative about, is it possible that we put data centers in space? I don't know. Like it's kind of a coin flip. Like something hits it and it all just like go wonky. So like I'm kind of like surprised that that's a thing. But it's the pitch. And it's the idea that like we need these data centers. And this is why hyperscalealids are kind of going up. So there is a fundamental

narrative attached to that. And that's a part I agree with Dave about. I do want to point out one thing. Dave, really quickly, I just want to say once again, Bitcoin will go up because Bitcoin's gone up. Right. But I also will point out that because we've been doing this show a long time, I'll remember when Mike, for years, I mean, this was a daily occurrence because remember in the history of this show, we had two year yields, we had overnight yields at 5%. And Mike was saying, If I can get 5%, for sure, in my one or two year, why wouldn't I take it?

And I'll put it in and go home. If you did invest on that, you missed a massive run in risk assets, particularly stocks. And there's no magic to 5%. You know, while I think at 5%, you can make an argument in terms of consumer yield, if you think that that 5% is going to be the cap on all risk assets deployed over the next 10 years, then you're in the dramatic minority of investments, right? You know, if not inflation expectation, asset expectations are higher.

Actuarial assumptions are much higher for every pension fund. Declaring 10% percent as what you're going to get would put virtually every pension system underwater because their actuarial assumptions are between 7 and 8%. And so there's no magic at 5%. I know people like to think of it that way because it's a level we haven't been in for a while. when the long bond gets to 7.5%. Now you're talking, now all of a sudden it's like,

okay, a pension funds, you know, Calsters, CalPERS, all the various ones. Now all of a sudden they can say, you know what, we can meet our actual assumptions with no risk. Let's just do it. And that is a magic number when it starts getting to those numbers. But we're nowhere near a magic number right now. 5% has no value. Is that the level that if you're a pension or an endowment, you say, okay, that's enough for the year. I'm just going to put it all in bonds? There are actuarial assumptions built into most pension funds. They vary. But somewhere between seven and a half and eight tends to be where most of them think they can achieve.

So when the S&P gives you 13, you've had a great year. When the long bond is at five, and in fact, if you've owned long bonds all year, you've gotten absolutely crushed. Because, as we all know, as yields go up, prices go down. So you're all in return on long bonds this year has been catastrophically bad. So you have to understand all of these things matter, but there's no magic at 5%. It's not a level that means a damn thing. It means a lot for newspaper and financial markets reporters because they look at the chart and they go, oh my God, look at this.

This is a big deal. But the truth is markets are yawning and they're yawning for a reason outside of fixed income. Credit default swap spreads, credit spreads, those do matter, right? That shows underlying stress. So you have to be careful what you're looking at in terms of stress. There's no doubt that diesel is going to be is a problem, right? Because without diesel, you don't get food. It's that simple, which is why, you know, why things are there.

So there are undeniable signs that there are some stressful things going on. But the market is more or less ignoring them, which is sort of surprising, but it is what it is. I think that's the real question. Like, why is it that the market is ignoring it? Like, I think that you're right, Dave, 5% is just a number. I mean, yes, like, as Scott was kind of alluding to, there are things attached to it. People run barbell strategies on the back of 5%. Like, you do have pensions that need to, like, meet a hurdle rate.

And therefore, like, that can become, like, an important number. But, like, that's typically higher, yeah, 78%. But, like, the question is, like, if the market is truly offering a risk rate of 5% that is attractive to a lot of people, then why haven't we seen volumes go down on AI names? Why haven't we seen like stock markets start to, you know, moderate a little bit? A lot of people have said it's frothy, but at the same time, that investment is still there. And I think there are other social aspects of this that have changed over the last probably just five years, honestly,

in terms of how much additional wealth is out there. It's definitely changed how much more people actually hold risk in their portfolios. because once upon time, it was something like 60% of American households that actually own stocks. That number has gone up. So, you know, like, and, you know, this, I'm not trying to kind of feed Mike's point, but this is kind of like the same households that are willing to kind of go long or risk might be willing to go long on crypto. So in that way, like, you know, maybe equities at crypto are somewhat linked.

But, you know, to your point, I think, I feel like there are periods where that correlation does go up, and that's periods where you see liquidity shocks, where there are monetary policy shocks, which is not what we're going through right now. But right now, I think the big question still is, like, at 5% are greater on the long end, why is it that people are still buying risk right now? And I think that a lot of this has to do with the social aspects that are happening that are changing inside the U.S. more so than what we're seeing in the markets themselves. I mean, I take a look at TLT, obviously, I think, which is the most traded, you know, asset around bonds. And it's been in a bear market, obviously, for a very, very, very long time.

I mean, it's just making a lower low this month here on the monthly chart. So bonds are looking worse in a clear bear market and confirming further bear market. So, like, when you look at a chart like this, that's not the one that you want to buy. Right. Now you need to be back above 82, 83 to start. aren't even looking at it from a technical perspective. So I mean, Mike, like, what's your, do you just buy bonds because the premise and it's time to dollar cost average into them because they're low? Because if you looked at that chart on Bitcoin, you'd be telling us we were

confirming lower lows and going to 10. So it's a lesson from Dave. You've got to watch up for squiggly lines. It's the fundamental sometimes that matter. And if you focus on all my bad calls, yeah, they're all bad. So we can do that if it helps you. But I'm talking about Dave in this case. So the key thing I'd say about bonds is let's remember key fact here is we have, I think that that 5% and that 10, you know, that some point is going to do potentially what it did in 1987. And that was when futures went to limit up a few days in a row. The Martin's why I got that point very well. What market is why really want us, don't fight the Fed, anybody who's bullish risk assets,

most and only stocks, the highest weighting in the history of mankind and U.S. average citizen now ever, A highest versus debt in 25 years, the highest versus GDP in 100 years, should not be fighting the Fed. And they are. If you're on Bitcoin, you're fighting the Fed. If you're on gold, you're fighting the Fed. If you're on copper, you're fighting the Fed. Just a fact. Martin Dwight taught us that lesson.

Don't fight the Fed. Simple. And right now, I think that's what's going to happen. Long bond, it kind of broke the market. Bonds broke the market 87. It's breaking the market now. And I think it's just a matter of time that that squiggly line does a hockey stick. And sure, I've been wrong for a while.

You know, the lessons of gold. Gold did pretty well from idiots like me who nailed it last year. And that is that when gold, it's exciting. Investors should be cautious. Now, I've been saying that for a little too long. But gold's volatility right now, 260-day valetilies, two times that has to be 500. That's the most since 2007. And people like me who got really bear stock market used that signal back then.

Yeah, I've been early. But, you know, you're not going to lose much in bonds. You just kind of hang out, but you're getting crushed in cryptos for a year. Now you're down 30%. Yeah, you're missing the stock market a little. bit, but there's times you're supposed to say, thank you very much. There's other alternatives. And it's like I say, I don't think it's magic, but 7% long bond means we get a crush and everything. But when people talking about severe inflation, we've already had that. Now it's

tilting over to the opposite. That's the right thing. Everything. We're all stock puppets. You can deny it all you want. See the test. Let's see a test of us not being stock puppets. Give me a 10% correction. See what happens. Ases. Mike, if Bitcoin's going to 10 and TLT is rising, where is where's your bottom on gold? So that's the problem with gold. If you look, at any long-term moving average on gold, it's running around just below $3,000. And also a key thing about goal, it's the highest versus the long bond index in four decades. It was its highest versus 60-month moving average beginning of the year in four decades. It's just so many singles, and we see central banks doing stuff.

That's great. That was a signal 2022, but they're not known as being the best traders on the planet. Just be careful with that. So the relative values there, it's all dependent on the stock market going up for inflation. to stay high, for the Fed to keep tightening, for Bitcoin to not to drop, for copper not to drop. That's my point is. We're the most dependent in history, and I always look for all terms, that environment, and it's October. So give us a couple months. But I remember that panel last year, Dave, I may, are you on it this year in the Greenwich, now for him?

I'm not, no. This is why I'm wearing a sweatshirt and you guys are wearing tuts and in college shirts. Well, it's just a classic sign that, you know, we had sound when they're yelling signs at Bitcoin a year ago. We all in acknowledge it. We had major sounds. We had major selling when they're yelling signs in precious metals a few months ago. We all check that out. We clearly get selling when they're yelling risk in heating oil and energy. I mean, there's major distress in that system right now. And we've had someone when they're selling yelling signals in stocks forever, but stocks the last one that usually go down.

So I have three points. Point one, you're absolutely right. We are dependent on the stock market. The wealth effect is exactly what's keeping the U.S. economy afloat. And there's no doubt about that. Anyone who disagrees with that is just, I don't know what you're looking at. The policymakers care about this more than almost everything. I mean, hell, you know, we, who is it that got fired because, you know, at her press conference said, yeah, but the Dow was up when it had nothing to do with that. I mean, it's like, our leadership is obsessed with the stock market. There's no doubt about that. But that should also tell you something about the direction of policy. So you need to understand that. The second point, which is totally different, you went back to 97. From 97 through 2000, that big run,

you know, through the, you know, whatever, depending on when you want to mark the high of the internet bubble, rates went significantly higher. The Fed was raised. It was a raising cycle. You know, they had a cut before 99, you know, because they were worried about Y2K. But for the the most part, the meta cycle was raising. And their last raise, the end of that raising cycle is, most people would consider it a mistake these days. They went too far and they, quote, prick the bubble, blah, blah, blah. We all know what happened.

But the truth is, rates were at a much higher level than they are now. I mean, the long bond was closer to seven than it was to five. And that was during a period of time with massive, you know, the ratios, the valuation metrics, yes, stock to GDP is higher today, but PEs are way lower today. So the earnings has actually caught up, but it's because earnings as a percentage of GDP are way the hell higher. Now, this isn't necessarily good. Let's be careful about this, because what you're actually seeing is earnings moving in the opposite direction of wages. And that is a political minefield. And that will cause potentially a very dramatic overreaction.

I mean, we'll see it in the midterms in 28 as well. We'll see it. Make no mistake, however, neither party has the will for austerity. That is the most clear thing here. And so what you are going to see, you keep saying the biggest money pump in history is if they learn their lesson. They have not learned their lesson. Let's be very clear about this. the fiscal dominance is actually bigger.

Our deficits, other than if you take out, are at a much more unsustainable long-term path right now. And if we do go have a tilt to the Democrat side in Congress, which means that there's no chance of it going down now, and we do end up with a Democrat sweep in 28. You're going to see fiscal dominance at levels that we've never seen before, because every time they do revenue assumptions on taxes, it turns out not to do what they think it's going to do, and transfer payments will go higher.

And so we do have to understand that. And Bitcoin is going to start trading based on that eventuality, not now, but it will. That's what your people are going to be. That's going to be the narrative people that talk about when Bitcoin makes its new all-time high. Notice I said when. I'm not saying if. But when you start seeing that narrative, it's going to be based on that debasement trade. It's going to be based on died in the world.

Now, if there's somehow a math of surprise in the midterms, all bets are off. But I would be stunned if that's happened. I think you're going to be right. I think people are rejecting the status quo. I think the debasement. Sorry, go ahead, Mike. I just want to ask all you the same question, especially you, Dave, Scott, and you, David, is, what's different? Everybody keeps pointing about, yes, we all get, that's what politicians have to do to get elected.

That's always been the case. We've had this democracy for 200 years or so. We get that. It always happens. But it's always going to happen. But the point is we get to levels that sparks it. What was the Great Depression? What was after the dot-com bubble?

What was after 2008? Always happens, but you have to have those events first. Why is it different? Point in making is, let's forget about GDP. Let's look at that debt. The key reason people unstoppable debt, the key people use for buying gold and Bitcoin. Well, the stock market is two times that.

That's the highest in 25 years. And we have a much higher correlation in the stock market. Certainly Fed tightening does than the debt. David. Well, I was going to say that, you know, to today's point, like, number one, I think that some of these are longer-term themes. And he did correctly say, like, this probably won't really hit until 2008. It might even go a little bit longer. I mean, austerity has been something that's a problem, like, since the beginning of time.

Like, there was a great quote from Jean-Claude Juncker, which is, he's a, you know, prime minister from Luxembourg. I don't expect anyone to know who that is. But, like, he once said, like, we all know what to do as politicians. we just didn't know how to get reelected once we do it. And I think that's kind of the epitome of like, you know, how politics works. Now, I think that the dollarization theme is definitely one that drives Bitcoin. And I think to, you know, a longer term kind of like thinking, this is definitely how I see Bitcoin fall inside people's portfolios. Because this is the hedge against, you know, like whether any of these kind of currencies, including the dollar, probably won't have long.

long-term value because of, you know, it's, it's a demand destruction and other things. But it's just whether it's something I'm pricing right now, that's the only kind of pushback I would have. I don't think it's what truly is driving any purchases that we get in the short term. I think the short term has a lot more to do with like, okay, technicals have been pretty poor for a while, things are recovering, liquidity is back. This looks like an asset that looks attractive right now. And I think this is kind of why we're seeing Bitcoin, creeping higher. I could even see creeping above like 100,000 by the end of the year. But, you know, like this is irrespective of, I would say, the fundamental kind of macro that's

a lot of people are trying to attach the story to. Well, Mike's consistent because, Mike, you know, if you think gold's going below 3,000 that aligns with many people's view that Bitcoin would go down, I would just push back that Bitcoin and gold trade the same. I think we get these very brief periods where you hear to baseman trade on Bloomberg and everywhere for a week or two, like when Bessent obviously announced the intervention and maybe both go up to a degree. I go back to just looking at the charts and it looks like gold is just entering a bear market, as I said. I mean, just breaking below the 50 weekly M.A hasn't made a higher high. Bitcoin is just breaking out from those very same things.

I mean, it's above the 50MA and has made a higher high. They're not trading together. And I also didn't realize TLT here is made now an all-time low. I don't know. Okay, but TLT is a TR. Put a total return behind that. The key thing, remember, is watch up for the squiggly lines. And the two key sectors in my stock puppet categories are metals of which gold is beta and cryptos of which Bitcoin's beta.

Just their stock puppets. And by the way, you're fighting the Fed if you're bullish. Yeah. Cryptos are not beta. I mean, Bitcoin is not beta to cryptos. Okay. So if Bitcoin drops 25%, what does it do for the rest of the cryptos? If Bitcoin's up 25% what does the Zouvrests or cryptos, that's beta.

Now, if you disagree with that, what's proven? I can show you what the history. Yeah, beta as in they move. It makes they move on the back of Bitcoin. It's the beta. That may be the one thing Mike says that I unequivocally agree with. I mean, I think that that you can't look at this without looking at fiscal dominance. I'm sorry, you just can't.

And if you ask what is different, the difference is we have, since the pandemic, we have had a massive regime shift. Here we have people talking, David made the point that we have above-trend economic growth. Find a period in American history with above-trend economic growth and fiscal deficits. I mean, you can't. That's the difference. And that is a very big deal. So when you talk about not fighting the Fed, I want to be clear. I always use this analogy. There's two things. rates, but what they're really doing with liquidity back here to monetize debt. This, you're fighting. This is helping you. And which one matters the most? It is, I mean, the Fed balance sheet is expanding again. And that matters. And by the way, if it didn't, rates would be even higher on the long way.

So it's very important. You know, you're right. You don't want to fight the Fed. You don't want to fight the treasury because today the biggest sock puppet is the Fed to the Treasury because you can't finance two to three trillion dollar deficits without you know it without breaking it because if you break it it's it's yeah it's not you to say don't fight the Fed is an incredible lesson of history but not if the Fed is dead and and right now I would say don't fight the Treasury I was going to make that joke and markets have been fighting the Fed here for quite a long time actually I just don't think that the markets are viewing the Fed is particularly relevant at the moment for maybe the first time that I can recall. No, I think the Fed's relevant.

I think that it's credibility is a question for both the Fed and the Treasury right now. Like, I think there's skepticism around the Treasury's action, for example. You wind down the TGA balance in order to kind of defend the long end. I think that there's definitely questions around the politicalization of that. But beyond that, it's also like magnitude. it's like, okay, it's very questionable as an action. But if you're not putting enough firepower behind it to actually move that, then like, you know, I think that is almost the bigger issue that a lot of people have.

It's like you do something that we don't think you should be doing in the first place, but then to like be ineffective at it, like that's, then you're turning it into a joke. And I think that's kind of the problem with these things. Okay, so here are the numbers that matter, so I just did the research. So federal out, not federal, government outlays total government per capita. Fifty years ago were $2,000. Today, well, let's say in the pandemic year, it hit $29,000. This year, it's $32,000 per capita.

So we're actually at a higher government spending per person, even than the previous blowout high of the pandemic. So when you ask what has changed, that's what's changed. And to me, I would normalize any chart by the rise in government spending per person. Now, that's not inflation adjusted. That's true, but that's because that is what's causing inflation. You want to correlate those two things. And that, by the way, is not the dollar debasement trade because the dollar is actually doing really well. The dollar is arguably doing the best of all the fiat pieces of paper. It's the fiat debasement trade because remember people, 1971 was the starter's gun on the era of no major government with

fully back currencies. And this is economically speaking a blip in terms of, you know, thousands of years of recorded human history. That's what's going on. And that narrative is powerful. And yeah, I mean, whether Bitcoin's going to be the answer or not, that is, I mean, look at the market saying it's a small probability, right? There's no doubt. But when you look at gold, that's why gold is where it is. The reason gold is where it is, and not back at that trendline at $3,000 is because our government spending. And by the way, the same thing is throughout the world.

You can make a global chart. It will look very similar to that. Government spending per person being at all-time highs is an enormously important factor. we lost Mike. Well, it's 10.03. You're going to lose me in a second, too. Okay. Before I lose you all, thank you, double daves.

And thank you to Mike for being here. Another great conversation. The comments are just so aggressive. People just can't take a contrarian argument. It's fun. Make, make, make, makes for a good debate. Appreciate you guys both. And obviously, we'll be back next Monday.

Thank you. Bye, guys.