The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin FLAT, CZ apologies, FTX to DUMP SOL! | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

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I'm like the old lady on the Titanic today waiting for the other co-hosts to arrive. So we can just start chatting without them because who knows, man. It's been 84 years. I'm assuming that Ran and Mario will be here eventually. If you guys were here yesterday, spaces were an absolute disaster. Not just us, elsewhere. A lot of glitching on this platform. Very often co-hosts get removed or we can't hear one person or two people on the panel,

or an outright rug pull, which is what happened to multiple spaces yesterday. Good times, but we power through it. Some of my favorite people up on stage today, which is exciting. Always happy to do this. Actually, I had a great talk on my YouTube show this morning with Mark Yusko, who's one of my favorites.

I've got this awesome panel today. And then I'm interviewing, which we've done here, I'm interviewing Peter Schiff at noon, which will be recorded, which is always eventful, I'll say. Although this time I definitely intend to not focus so much on arguing with the guy about Bitcoin, because what's the point? Interesting. I'm curious the panel's thoughts on this. But I think if you actually remove the emotion of arguing with people like Peter Schiff, that we probably agree on 98 or 99% of things, just not on the end result or what asset's supposed to protect us from those things.

When I listen to Peter Schiff, I actually agree with most of what he says. I just don't agree with what he thinks of Bitcoin. Mike, you're here. What's your opinion? Do you think gold bugs and Bitcoiners are more similar than we like to admit? Oh, yes. They're very entertainingly similar, particularly those of the extremes but i think what you said is just right it's not worth arguing in fact sometimes it's better to let the gold bugs win the argument we want to win the award of performance and i just like to say for but probably five years and i've been saying it's to invest in gold and not have some crypto. Bitcoin in that space is just seriously scary. Why would take that risk in life?

So, I mean, to me, that's where it goes. I enjoyed going to the Bitcoin Energy Conference yesterday. Of course, there was a lot of energy, quite bullishness. But to me, the whole space right now comes down to beta. If we finally have started a way overdue correction in beta, which means the S&P 500, we all know the risks. And for now, Bitcoin's doing great. But I think the key levels are 5,000 in the S&P 500

and 60,000 in Bitcoin, both key support levels. And everything is trickling down from there. Beta can stay strong. The whole world moves forward. And beta continues to correct, which is my bias, just a normal correction. Then we have to see how the domo, and that's a great trading environment for a lot of people. No matter how many times I mute you, Ran, your mic goes hot.

Good job. Mic goes hot. You're here. There you are. I'm here. I'm here. I'm here. I have a different theory and I broke down the theory on my show today. And I think I'll share the theory with you guys around Bitcoin and gold and everything else. And then you tell me whether the theory actually makes sense because I may be delusional, but maybe the theory actually makes sense. So here's the theory. If you look at the Chinese market, there has been excessive buying of gold in the Chinese market, specifically to the point where they've recently for the last couple of months, often been paying a huge premium on buying gold and building up gold, right? So you got to look

at the psychology behind the buying of gold in the Chinese market. The Chinese safe haven asset has actually always been property. Chinese people have always prided themselves on property. The sign of being well off, the sign of like how people show their wealth is actually by buying lots of property. That's been the prestige symbol in China. Problem is the property market is pretty much collapsed. Evergrande started this massive collapse, but we all know that the the property market is pretty much collapsed. Evergrande started this massive collapse, but we all know that the Chinese property market is in a complete shambles. So now what you have is you have the Chinese guys going, shit, we need to get out of the Chinese property market. Actually, we want to get out of China, but we can't get out of China. The reason

why we can't get out of China is because there's this thing called foreign exchange controls, which Americans don't know anything about. But lots of countries don't actually allow you to take money out the country. So like in South Africa, if I want to take money out the country, I'm allowed to take out the equivalent of $80,000 a year, unless the government gives me special permission to take money out the country. So very often when I travel, they come back to me and they say, look, you've taken out too much money because you spent too much money on hotels and accommodation and whatever else.

And that happens in China as well. And so what's happening right now is that the Chinese people cannot invest in property because they're too scared and because the property market is completely collapsed. At the same time, they want to externalize money out of China and they can't externalize money out of China. So what are they doing? They're running to buy gold? They're running to buy gold and they're running to buy gold so much

that they're creating, that they are buying it at a premium to the spot price. It's like they're panic buying gold and there's not enough gold for them to buy so they're willing to pay a premium and they'd end up buying the gold. That's the first part of the puzzle. That is what I think one of the drivers,

not the only driver, but I think that that is one of the drivers of why gold is trading where gold is trading. Now, on Tuesday in Hong Kong, they're launching the Bitcoin ETFs. And maybe some Chinese investors, maybe some, not a lot, maybe some Chinese investors will be tempted to put money into the Bitcoin ETFs. And that could get a lot of money into the Bitcoin ETFs. And that could get a lot of money into the Bitcoin ETFs. Only problem is that I did a little bit of research and Chinese investors are not actually allowed to take to buy stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

unless the stocks are part of what they call a Stock Connect program. And the Stock Connect program, I think, has some kind of betting procedures in terms of only accredited investors in China can participate in it. And it's only certain qualified stocks, when I say stocks, stocks and ETFs, assets that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange or any other international stock exchange. So here's the theory. Right now, the Chinese guys don't wanna buy property and they wanna externalize, they're too scared to buy property,

they panic selling their property and they need to put their money somewhere and they wanna put their money outside of China so they're buying gold. The next move is to watch if Bitcoin ETFs, the reason why the Chinese government banned Bitcoin trading is because for them, it represented people taking money out of China without the Chinese government being able to control it. And that's what they were scared.

They were scared that people were taking their Chinese currency and getting their money out of China. But now there is a scenario playing out where, hold on a second, if they put the ETF on the Stock Connect program, then they could allow people to buy the Bitcoin ETF without the risk of people transferring these Bitcoin outside of the system. And so I think there is a chance, and I don't think it's going to happen immediately, but I think step one is the Bitcoin ETF launches on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday. And Ethereum, right? And then on like, I think a couple of months from now, and look, I may be completely wrong in my timing. And you know what, like some of the analysts have said it will never happen. I don't believe it will never happen. I just, I think it's just a matter of time. But because, but if I think about it logically, if I think about it logically,

if that scenario lands up playing out, then there may be a legal way for Chinese people to actually buy Bitcoin. And it's a legal and almost like in a way that, you know, the government is like pretty happy because it's like, you know, we're actually controlling the Bitcoin, so to speak. In other words, you know, we have full sight of it. And, you know, you can say Hong Kong is not Hong Kong is not China, but Hong Kong actually is China. No, it's not, but it actually is. You know what I'm saying? So that's my theory. My theory is that the reason why Chinese people are buying gold is because they want out of property or because they can't be buying property anymore and they're looking for the next asset.. At some point, we can replace it. I was just going to say, Mike, as you jump in, have you seen this?

We've heard a lot, Ran and Mike, about central banks, specifically Chinese central banks, stacking gold. I had not heard about the actual retail side. Interestingly, anyone who's paying attention in the United States, I wrote a newsletter about it today. Costco is also selling out of gold in the United States, although I don't think that you can extrapolate the same level of detail to it. Yeah, I have to piggyback on that a little bit. Certainly what Rand was saying. Let's just look

at some of the macro facts of China. The U.S., the government 10-year note yield in China right now is 2.26%. You can't really mess with that. You know, they can distort all their data, and they clearly are. I mean, they can distort all their data and they clearly are. I mean, they can. Why not? Um, that's the lowest in our database since 2006. That's 225, 240 basis points less than the U S you know, how much, um, less than half of the U S two year note.

And that's not just China. We have the similar things in Japan and Germany and Germany, not so much in Mexico, in Greece. I mean, the rest of the world, in terms of their bond markets, are tilting towards deflationary, recessionary indications for bonds. And then we have things like, yeah, OK, that's why you're going to buy gold. So here's the facts about gold buying. In the last three years, central bank buying of gold, according to the World Gold Council, has been colossal, was the word they used. I did the math. It's been about 90 million ounces, to put that in context.

The amount of ETF outflows in gold ETFs for the last three years has been about 30 million ounces. So triple the amount of selling from U.S. investors. And that to me is why I'm still quite bullish gold. It's the only major commodity going up. But the bottom line from a global macroeconomic standpoint, I think it's silly when you hear things like, oh, Germany is coming out of their malaise. And these things don't happen until a long and variable lag to central bank easing. We haven't even started that process in Europe. So they're still tilting towards recession. You get a little bit of a bounce. China's the only major country with significant cutting rates, and China's just turning Japanese. It's just classic the case. They probably will be buying.

The central bank will probably be doing just like the Japanese did buying stocks. They kind of have to. I mean, HHSI, the Hong Kong Shanghai Index, just reached the lowest level versus S&P 500 since when Chairman Mao was president. So, yeah, they have to. But to me, this is part of the macro bent. And the whole world has never been more dependent on the U.S. stock market going up than now, in my view. And that's why the risk is it goes down. I saw some others, Matt Matthew, I saw you kind of giving the thumbs up on the Costco point.

I mean, do you think that we're at a point where Americans are actually thinking about hedging with Bitcoin or gold? Or is that a maximalist fantasy for all of the above? I feel like people are just buying gold at Costco because they saw that people are buying gold at Costco and they think it's cool. Yeah, I saw that same thing about folks buying gold at Costco and they think it's cool. Yeah. I saw that same thing about folks buying gold at Costco. And I think one of the things from that article that I read was that now you kind of have an issue with trying to sell it or offload it, which is kind of an interesting dynamic where

people are buying something and then not being able to sell it, trying to consider to store a value. So I think that's a little bit of a challenge. But there was something today that came out from Hunter Horsley from Bitwise saying that new RAs are coming in and they're basically deciding that 2% of all allocation is just going to be proposed to Bitcoin or 2% allocation to Bitcoin is going to be proposed to all clients and 3% to 10% allocations are going to be made by discretion. And so I think what we're seeing now is this general consensus that this is an absolute thing that needs to be in your portfolio to, you know, whether it's a hedge against other things or just an uncorrelated asset, it's going to be a blanket investment across many, many portfolios over the course of the next few years.

Yeah. And I think that, you know, Andrew just jumped up, always kind of gives us the inside, but we haven't even seen the majority of the potential buyers and demand unlocked for the phenomenon you just described, right? I mean, we talk about it ad nauseum, so I don't think we need to get too deeply into it, but most people and certainly most RIAs still don't even have access, right? So if that's a slow bleed, slow trickle, it should, you would imagine, continue up with price, right, Matthew? Exactly. And as an RIA, I see this all the time and I'm down the rabbit hole and I'm like, oh, my God, it's all over.

Everybody's got their RIA, everybody's got their stuff allocated and it's just all over. Nothing, nothing left for Matthew. But at the end of the day, we have to realize that, you know, again, only 100 million or I guess one in five people in this country own a cryptocurrency at all. So you still have about 100 million people of investable age and eligibility that don't have access or haven't even dabbled into this asset class yet. So a lot of a lot of. Yeah, I've been working on something quietly that's RIA involved with Bitcoin. So we've been surveying and talking to quite a few RIAs. And the overwhelming sentiment that we get from all of them is that whether they

love, hate, or are completely indifferent to Bitcoin, they're absolutely terrified that the boomer money is going to go to kids who will not hire them. And their biggest fear right now is that all this boomer wealth is sitting with an RIA. And then they're like Gen Z kid comes into the meeting and says, I want to buy meme coins, or I want to buy GameStop, or I'm not going to buy mutual funds and moves on. So we're at this point where the RIAs feel from what I've seen, some of even the most conservative, Bitcoin RAs on the planet, that they at least need to have an education and allow it for their clients so that they don't lose the next generation. I mean, the wealth transfer from boomers to their children that's

coming and is inevitable is trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. And beyond even the wealth going, I just don't think most 20, 30-year-olds are going to trust dad's guy. And so I think that that's a huge, huge point here because those people probably want Bitcoin. Andrew, I saw you left your mic, then Tom. Yeah, well, in terms of those demographics, we have to realize that maybe 30% of them hate their dad, so they're going to hate their advisor anyways. So that's something to consider. On top of that, though, you know, I put a post up really late last night. It is truly remarkable.

You know, we're talking about 71 straight days of debt inflows for for blackrock but bitwise has only had one tiny day of outflows or else they would also have 71 days of you know consecutive inflows into their product and that goes directly to the hard work that they put inIAs, anybody that will let them in the door, right? Like they're not spending all of their time pounding on Merrill Lynch's door slash Bank of America's door who owns Merrill Lynch to try and evangelize those folks on Bitcoin, but they're doing it literally on the ground level every single day. And every week I get a note from somebody in the wealth management industry saying, man, these guys have, they work hard and they know

their stuff, but they're more impressed by how hard they work. And there's a direct correlation between that effort and the fact that 70 of 71 days they've had inflows. I don't know. That's pretty cool stuff. It needs to be mentioned more. It needs to be talked about more. In this industry, there's a lot of stuff that goes on that's, I don't know, it's half-cocked. It's Larry Kinkish.

It's not real. It's not legit. But what Bitwise is doing, a real upstart, a real underdog in the space, you got to commit it. You really have to. Yeah, I agree. Tom? Yeah, so totally agree with all the points made here. Cerulli, which is a big services company, did a survey a few years ago that said $84 trillion by 2045 are going to be transferred to the next generation. And while the money, it'll be important to have Bitcoin, it's also going to be really important to have altcoin allocations and advisory services, not just for Ethereum, Solana, but as you said, meme coins, right? Because if we want this money, if they want this money to stay on their platforms, they're going to need to offer the full suite of services. So I have no idea how these big wire houses are going to start servicing Do you know, Doge and Pepe and, you know, just up and above the other major assets that are out there. So it's going to be, is it going to, the money going to stay personal or are they going to offer these services and keep some of that money on platform?

So I think there's going to be a big trend to outsource a lot of this stuff. And that next generation of managers, of altcoin managers is going to be a lot of us, a lot of the younger guys. And I think it's going to look totally different than the last generation of money managers. Sorry, a cerulean associates mention on a Bitcoin and crypto spaces is it's got to be an all-timer. I know Tyrone probably realized it's like Cerulean associates are, you know, they've been around forever in TradFi and frankly, they're the only one. Andrew, we've lost you, buddy. Your sound is bad and you keep cutting out. I don't think you can even hear me andrew uh you're cut out um you have bad signal um so yeah

we're going to continue on i think uh we we have a title here obviously bitcoin flat cz apologizes ftx to dump soul uh we can dig into those a bit i would say bitcoin maybe not flat since we uh started let me uh check the chart again but i was taking a look and it looked like it was down below $65,000 already. I think when we started, it was probably trading around $66,000. Anyone have a theory on why we are, I won't say dumping, $1,000 when it goes from $6,000 to $65,000 is a rounding error. But any theories on the price action today from anyone on stage? If not, I can give mine, which is that we're sideways. Go ahead, Oscar.

Hey, thank you, Scott. I appreciate that. And I appreciate Crypto Banter for the invitation. What's going on, guys? Happy to have you. One of the things that I think makes total sense is since we already have the Bitcoin halving, we're waiting about today's the let me check my watch the 24th um i mean the fomc as we're heading today 30th to the 1st of april

that one is going to give us some rates that uh decisions right that can affect the whole market so that's one thing i'm looking at. And eventually what happened yesterday could also have maybe impacted too a little bit when it comes to Adara and BlackRock. Mostly the token, right? It was pretty interesting to see. I'm looking at that. And I mean, particularly Bitcoin. I was honestly looking personally for more blood under $60,000. We've reached 59 three times.

But it was impressive how it held really strong. Anything right now above $60,000, I think that's nothing. And we could definitely have much consolidation until we see any result from the Fed. I don't think anyone expects the Fed to really do anything at this meeting, right? I don't expect the Fed to do anything all year unless maybe they need to impact the election. But Mike, we talked that one to death.

Matthew, you have your hand up. You can go. Then we can talk about the odds of the Fed. Go ahead, Matthew. Yeah, just the trading sideways piece. I think it's an interesting caveat because for a long time, at least in the last six months or even potentially last year, we don't have a narrative that people can look to to be bullish or bearish in one direction or another. Now we're just kind of like, well, four years until the next halving and we'll see what happens. Maybe we'll get an Ether ETF.

We might get something else. But I think people are just kind of like treading sideways, trying to see the ramifications of post having and where we go. We almost always trend sideways after the having too, right? I mean, regardless of narrative, you get the having and you go, yay.

And then you go back to your life and then four or six months later, things go up. If you believe that the cycle will repeat, um, Matthew Dixon, go ahead. Matthew Dixon. Uh,

can't hear you for now. If you can, go ahead. Sorry. Go ahead. Could it be durable goods orders? Because it's not just Bitcoin that's gone down. It's across the market. And even the S&P is down.

It's actually taken quite a turn. The futures are taking quite a turn. So I think it could be the durable goods orders, which are stronger than expected. And when they came out, as soon as they came out, that we got a turn down in the market. So obviously, higher than expected durable goods, inflationary pressures, meaning the Fed interest rate decision or the cut we put back even further. So real mixed signals we're getting from the US economy. And I do think we need to start thinking more and more about macroeconomics when we're talking about Bitcoin. That wasn't always the case, but certainly now it's a, you know, well-accepted risk asset across,

you know, on a par with likes of S&P 500. So as I say, they've actually turned in concert together. And I think it's a macroeconomic effect that there's more fear of higher interest rates or interest rates higher for longer. I think that's the Fed would hike because it would be so politically unpopular. But if you believe their data, there's a little and I've been saying this for over a year, so I'm not crazy, but the Fed has literally no reason to cut. Mike, we talk about this all the time. And they've got no wriggle room to move. They can't move either way. You know, obviously, you know, a hike would make more sense with the inflation figures we're getting, but they can't hike because there are other signs showing the economy's not as strong as it looks. I think the key thing is, I'll stick with the same views, the Fed's not going to cut until a stock market goes down and tells them to cut. Yeah, I agree. Then why, we've talked about it before, but why do predictive markets and dot plots and

CME continue to believe we're going to get this multiple cuts? December was supposed to be six or seven cuts this year. Now we're down to, will they cut at all? And people talking about hikes. Well, that's a wonderful thing about human nature and markets. It always gives you great tactical trading opportunities. Yeah, makes sense because people are wrong. But I mean, do anybody, I mean, Oscar, you made the point that you think that, you know, Bitcoin could move based on what the Fed does. But I've seen very little expectation that the Fed does anything but stay the course of the pause, right?

Absolutely. I mean, it was crazy. You know how before the prior CPI data, I was looking at headlines like three cuts, 2024, it's going to happen. And now, will they even cut it all? 2025, delayed. I'm like, whatever, right? Not really expecting Jerome Powell to solve anything. But absolutely, I think a cut happening in April or summer, I think I don't see it as inflation is still sticky. And I mean, what we also saw that affected a lot of Bitcoin, right, was the conflict and the response from Israel and Iran and that conflict that really had a volatile movement. But we saw how BTC established itself at once again, 60,000 flat, which that's what we're talking right now.

So what's going to really bring the price of BTC to, let's say, 70, like you mentioned? And it's, I mean, just go back in history. We go sideways for a while, 2020, I remember that one. 2016, you can also take a look at that. And then all of a sudden, right, as we're heading into the end of 2024, that's when we see the liquidity come in. So excited for that and obviously preparing right now. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I mean, I don't know if any of you saw this story about FDX to dump solds, that they're going to actually auction some solana tom you're one of my go-to uh if i hear the word solana people but do you think that this is

meaningful at all uh for the market for solana this to me just sounds like the endless uh unlocks and dumps we're supposed to get from news like this that never happened but But Tom, what do you think of the FTX continuing to auction off and sell soul? Yeah. They want to get the highest price for these assets possible. So they're not going to dump the market by just doing a big market TWAP. And we've had other events like this that we said, oh, the US government's selling or this entity's selling their seized coins or whatever. and they haven't moved the market as much as everyone thinks. I think they're also selling a bunch of alternative assets that are really not meaningful anymore. So I'm not worried about this at all. It's still

very, very bullish Solana, the ecosystem and the technology there. I mean, we're still worrying about Mt. Cox since the day I got into crypto right so it's just that these unlocks that are supposed to come and always dump the market never seem to be particularly meaningful or we find out about it after it happened which i think has been the case a lot with you know grayscale for example gbtc you find out that it was you know a week or two later you find out it was genesis or ftx dumping their gbtc go ahead mat Matthew. Is it also kind of funny that the government doesn't do it this way? Whenever they seize the tokens, they just dump them all in the market at the same time. They're not exactly looking for the best price in this sense.

Yeah, I think it seems like the government just takes Silk Road Bitcoin and sends it to Coinbase and YOLO market sells. Really fun. But yeah, it seems in this case that it should be a nothing burger. I agree with Tom, but always news when we see FTX selling anything. Do we have an idea of when FTX creditors? Anyway, I don't know the answer. Does anyone on stage know when they might start to see funds returned? Anyone?

I've heard maybe Q4 or Q1 of next year from Tom Braziel, who we've had up, but I haven't really seen much news on that of late. So Mike, I want to ask you, Matthew said that he thought that Bitcoin was dropping today because of durable goods. I mean, do you think that we're that closely correlated right now? It seems to me like Bitcoin's just sideways generally and everything else is sort of having its own party or up and down. Right now it's noise. I mean, it's still 65,000.

Where was it a year ago? It's stuck in that between 60 and 70 at the moment. To me, it's noise. But I think he's right. And because when Durable Gold was printed and the S&P 500, even though he's up like about 10, now it's down in the day. But this is all kind of noise in the big picture that I see. That's just a significant rollover.

And the question is, how much can this 24-7 traded leading indicator buck the trend? Or is it going to lead us? And so for now, to me, that's the biggest risk is pointed out early. It's beta going down. We all know just 5% by the dip itself, it's going to work forever as you're overdue for a little bit more back and fill in the stock market. I just point to point out is, you know, have volatility, the VIX volatility in the next 50 week, two week moving average and TBL rates are near 20-year extremes. You just don't want to be overweight equities in that environment.

So the question is, what's going to be the next catalyst? Then I look over to what I see in commodities. It's a pretty significant peak in crude oil. I see just the normal dip in gold. And I see most of my other commodities, for instance, the grains, tilting over to severe deflation, which is normal after big spikes. So the question is, how much can the stock market hold up and is Bitcoin going to lead it? And if the stock market does go down,

how can this high volatility risk asset not go down with the stock market? So that's kind of, we're just waiting for that. The phones are going off at Bloomberg. I love it. What would be your signal that it's leading? Is it a break of 60,000, which you sort of highlighted as support? Is that? It is 60,000 key support. Anybody else view? I mean, if you look at the chart effectively, I think most people would agree we're sort of ranging between that 74-ish high and 60 low. Anyone else here view a different level of support as key here or is literally everybody watching 60,000? I mean,

Tom, is there something meaningful that could happen with Bitcoin here that would trigger some sort of bearishness for you? For me, I don't think there's anything that can make me bearish on Bitcoin or crypto more broadly for the rest of the year, even with a broader economic sell-off, unless we get some material rate cuts or something along those lines that Mike and others have kind of touched upon. I'm fundamentally just very bullish for the rest of the year with these continued flows, continue regulatory uncertainty being cleared up. It's up only for me for the rest of the year. And I was really bearish last year. So I'm not a permabull by any means, but I think even with 5, 10, 20 interim corrections, we end the year by early Q1, my prediction is 150 Bitcoin, 1200, 12K ETH, and then Solana 500.

So the direction of travel is only one way. Yes. Standard charter, they tend to make bold predictions, but they reiterated, I think today or yesterday, their $150,000 Bitcoin and $8,000 ETH by the end of 2024. Negligible if it's Q1 right to your point of 2025 or by the end of 2024. But it is interesting that people are expecting, I think, those high of targets. Tom, I mean, along those lines, you said obviously there'll be corrections along the way. They've been shallower this cycle. Do you expect the shallower corrections to continue? Do you think

we get back to the old days of 30, 40% retracements before heading back up? And to that end, like I said earlier, in a halving cycle, we tend to sort of have a very boring summer, you know, the last few times, low volatility, which all markets, but, and then it's sort of up only in September, October. So can we see, you know, even with those high targets, can we see a very boring four or five months here and then it just goes nuts in the fall? Yeah. And that would be very much in line with not only the flows that we've talked about many times in this show, but what previous equity market regimes have done in election years when we've had a strong start to the year. So if you look at the last,

I think, 12 presidential election cycles where there's been a 10% move up to start the year, we've been range bound for the next quarter until we kind of pick it back up at the end of the year and finish much, much higher. And that's very much in line with the heuristics that we've, we've talked about and have thought about that, you know, definitely the democratic, Democrats don't want the stock market to go down, um, going into, you know, those, those Q4, uh, elections. Right. Right. But they could let it go down all summer and still win. Right. Yeah. I think it's range bound is what the, what the data has shown us, um, is it has been the trend. So I don't think they'll let it go down all summer, but people still take off.

People still go to the south of France and the flows in the summer are still much, much lower than they used to be. Is there anyone on stage who believes that we see those kind of highs or much more significant price action to the upside sooner than the fall? It just concerns me when everyone has the same sort of base case and path in mind. Does anyone think passionately that we go down or up significantly before summer or fall? Would love to hear people's positions or predictions. Go ahead, Matthew. Yeah.

If we survive this little sell-off at the moment, then the likelihood is we're just seeing, just from a technical perspective, we're seeing a very clear ABC correction down where C wave equals A wave precisely. So we should head up to, you know, very, very quickly. We should head up to the 84,000 82 84,000 next stop and then that'll be another decision point decision time there but yeah technically as i say this is just looking like a very normal correction as you'd expect and i do suspect that we're going to continue the

impulse to the upside so it's just been very clear impulsive the impulse to the upside. So it's just been very clear, impulsive price action to the upside. This is clearly corrective, very overlapping where C equals A, as I say. So I would definitely hang on to your position for at least 82,000 minimum. Matthew, do you know Texas West Capital? Do you know christopher inks i'm just curious because i had him on my youtube show this morning and he laid out the exact same elliot wave case and target like precisely yeah i mean this elliot wave is obviously it can be interpreted different ways but there are only a few alternatives and when you look at the overall wave structure, it very clearly tells you that the impulsive direction is upside at the moment. And this is a clear correction.

No, I don't know him. I didn't listen to him. But I've been following Elliott Wave for 20 years now. Yeah, I was just sure if you're, yeah, I wasn't implying. Sorry, just to be clear, I wasn't implying. You copied him. I just found it interesting to hear. Because, you know, you show 100 analysts the same chart and you get 100 different interpretations.

So to be that closely aligned always sort of piques my curiosity. Yeah, interesting. I don't think you will find 100 different alternatives in this case. Long term, you'll find different alternate scenarios or interpretations. Long term, there are two completely opposing scenarios here. But short term, I think that definitely the trend is to the upside. Yeah. Oscar. Tarek, I mean, I think a month ago,

it was much easier for us to predict or forecast a bearish outlook, given the fact that we were waiting on the correction of the possible Bitcoin hub in Selaf. And we were, you know, listening to the escalations in the international conflicts that we're seeing right now with the wars. But given the fact that we just, you know, finished March and then now April and all of that has passed and the speculation, the volatility and growing fears of more maybe compliance regulation and the wealth notices that I have seen, even going to Uniswap, Coinbase and other different entities and we still can hold this awesome level at 60 where you know in the past it was very difficult to even come to this level um i think it just shows how strong um this web tree and digital space is that now having blackrock bitwise panic uh we're looking at ark invest obviously last last time last thing i know is that banger is still is not on board correct me if i'm wrong right but that's what i heard

uh fidelity and other ones right uh microstrategy of course in a blackrock that just launched oh i mean not that long ago the etf and that has more collected Bitcoin than MicroStrategy. I saw that post not that long ago. I'm like, wow, like they might not be heavily promoting it online or being very vocal about it, but on the back end, they know that they don't want to really be later because they're already late. But I think they don't want to be later than any other party involved in Bitcoin. Bottom line, I think we should have been already down under 60 by now if we really had to see that worst case scenario. But I think 58,000, 59,000 is the first line of defense that we have to break down. 60 is obviously the obvious one that if we we get anywhere close then we got to be

alert but as 64 63 65 66 is in that's sort of a normal and uh it's just another case for us to see well we just need a little catalyst or eventually waiting a few months so bitcoin can rise back up and one one thing is confirmed once we get to 70 000 it might be too late yeah we we need to find some we need to go uh bear hunting and find some people to give uh contrary opinions on the show it seems that we've got uh nothing but bulls it always worries me right i i think that uh even you know peter brandt came on he said there was a 25 chance based on his analysis he laid it out actually very eloquently uh that top could already be in, but then said, listen, that means 75% chance that we follow the cycles.

And he's like, I'm very heavily long. So, you know, even the bearish case is people coming on and saying, I'm super long, but 25% chance that I'm wrong. The last story that we had kind of had in the title was that CZ apologized. I don't know if you guys saw, but the Department of Justice is asking for three years for CZ, not saying that he'll get it. But I think a lot of people surprised at that number of people, you know, his lawyers asking for probation, saying, obviously, he already paid a huge fine, and that he willfully turned himself in. But, you know, CZ kind of wrote this letter to the judge saying he made poor decisions,

has accepted full responsibility, that he'll never, he said, this is what he said, there's no excuse for my failure to establish the necessary compliance controls at Binance and gave an assurance that this would be his only, quote, encounter with the criminal justice system. So kind of the opposite of SBF, who even when he had a chance at sentencing to speak, basically just coped and pretended he did nothing wrong and didn't quite understand what was happening. I think CZ has, from the very beginning, sort of taken ownership of this situation. Hopefully it will not be three years for him, I think. But guys, I think we pretty much covered everything. Go excitedly watch Bitcoin price action because we like watching paint dry.

And we'll be back tomorrow. Hopefully, I have a little more excitement to talk about. Thank you, everybody. Everybody, check out all our speakers. Give them a follow. See you tomorrow. Bye.