The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Gets A Massive Boost: Here Is Why The Bitcoin ETF Options Launch Is So Important

Episode Date: November 20, 2024

I’m joined by James Seyffart, ETF Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to dive into the successful launch of Bitcoin ETF options and explore why this milestone is crucial for the crypto market. James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►JOIN THE CRYPTO DISCUSSION ON ROUNDTABLE (CHAT WITH ME DIRECTLY!) 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/ApwkJIW ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFoptions The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Breaking news, and this is massive. Bitcoin just made a new all-time high, broken from checks notes yesterday. Bitcoin seemingly going up every single day, making new all-time highs, and it feels like nothing stops this train. But what's giving it this boost? We have a ton of tailwinds for Bitcoin. Obviously, everything happening with the election and new appointments. But I think one of the factors driving it hard today specifically is the approval and trading

of Bitcoin ETF options. And when we want to talk about ETFs, you know who we bring on. It's James Saifert from Bloomberg. We're going to talk about the reason these are so bullish and how they're driving price up. And of course, we've got Christopher Inks of Texas West Capital on the back half to show you a bunch of squiggly lines on charts. Let's go. the Bloomberg ETF bros and specifically James Safer today, who is celebrating Movember in spectacular fashion. I'm jealous. Maybe if I got rid of all of this, I could do something by the end of the month. Yeah, I'm not messing around this month. This is a go full stash. Serious full stash. For those of you who are listening on audio, you're missing just a thing of true glory. It's really spectacular. And I see that you went and

threw on your vest so that you could be the Wall Street meme guy as well. A little bit, but I'm also actually cold and it's the nearest thing I had to me. And I didn't want to put on a hoodie. So maybe I should have. I would have matched you. That makes perfect. I really got dressed up for today's show. You can tell how seriously I take it when you come on. So listen, let's talk about ETF options. So we'll talk about the general success of these ETFs. Of course, the numbers are obviously astounding. We've gone over it a number of times, but ETF options launched relatively quickly. So they were approved quite a while ago. We thought maybe Gensler would kick the can down the road, but it seems like the CFTC went ahead and just approved

these the minute that they had the opportunity. And they turned around and were trading very, very quickly. But holy crap, man, these things really, really successful. Debut of Bitcoin ETF options is latest boost for crypto from US. Bitcoin ETF options attract $2 billion on day one, shifting Bitcoin's market structure. Your tweet here, final tally, $1.9 billion. And then of course, Eric jumping in and saying this is absolutely unheard of. So I think fair to say that this is a big deal. Yeah. I mean, $1.9 billion on day one. So to be fair, that's also notional exposure. It's not like $1.9 billion traded day one. So to be fair, that's also notional exposure. It's not like 1.9 billion traded hands. Some of those contracts were worth like, you know, 15 cents on the dollar,

essentially. So it's not actually that much money turning in, but it is that much notional exposure to iBit that traded hands. And as that chart showed, it's heavily skewed to the calls. Like if you look at call options, I think over 90% of the call options that traded were heavily out of the money, above the current price. Overall, it was just a heavy skewed out of the money option, specifically call options, no matter how you slice it. And I'm staunchly of the opinion that if it wasn't the driving factor, it was very impactful in driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs of about 94K yesterday. And today, so yesterday it was only iBit that was allowed to start trading.

We're going to have a few more ETFs go live today with options trading. Not all of the 11 or 12 Bitcoin ETFs are approved, but a select handful. So we got, yeah, as you see here, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise. So you have Bitwise, you have the two grayscale products, Fidelity, and and it looks like arc also are going to have options the rest are not going to have options trading uh grayscale still exists that's cool for them congratulations i yeah i mean hunter sent me this quickly it's great to see that these are going to be followed up uh just a day later because i think there was a lot of the classic crypto tin hat conspiracy theory going around. Of course, BlackRock gets it first. They're going to be the only ones. The regulators are choosing winners. They did get a nice one-day head start,

which I think is meaningful, but we're going to see these on all these products, right? No, not all of them, actually. The big ones, the ones that trade the most are going to get the first one. Honestly, it wouldn't have been out of precedent to only give it to iBit. They do have very, they're like on these types of options approval processes, like these 30, 33 act funds,

these ones that have to go through that 19 before process. I've come on your podcast to talk about a bunch. Never heard that term before. Yeah, the normal like 1940 act open end fund ETFs, they can have options like literally starting day one. It's just a separate process. And in that separate process, they're very restrictive about what ETFs can and cannot do and do not have options. The one thing I will say is though, iBit and NASDAQ, so iShares and NASDAQ where iBit is listed, they filed earliest. So they were the

first ones out the door to get a filing. They were also the first ones out the door for a filing for the Ethereum ETF options, though I think NYSE and CBOE were very close behind on that front. So Ethereum options are likely on deck sometime in probably the beginning of Q2 of 25. I want to take a look at this chart again, just so people see it. 82% calls, 18% puts. Then you have an article here on CoinDesk. Pro crypto traders are leveraging iBit options to bet on BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF doubling to $100. So interestingly, I mean, these are just straight up bets that Bitcoin is going to go up, right? I think that there was a lot of concern, actually, that what you would see was a lot of puts or shorting of the futures,

you know, using options and such and getting long Bitcoin spot for that cash and carry trade where you can sort of earn a yield. But it looks like when you take a look at this, people are just betting on the price of Bitcoin going up at least this first day. Yeah, I mean, that's 100% what it is. I mean, here, I actually, I'll send you some other links via Twitter DM while we're on here, some other charts, but the $100 strike price was the third most traded contract price. That would be equivalent of just shy of $180,000 Bitcoin.

So that's a lottery ticket. And honestly, one of the top 10 most traded contracts was the $100 strike price for December 20th, 2024. So people, that's less than a month, that is a month away. So I mean, there's a lot of- Are there people betting on effectively $170,000, $180,000, $190,000 Bitcoin in the next 40 days? Yeah, that's just a call option. Or maybe they're trying to, you know, Delta, like Gamma Squeeze, you know, who knows exactly what different people are trying to do. Maybe they're trying to go for a GME, uh, short squeeze type of situation here, gamma squeeze. Um, that said it's, it's going to be a little bit harder to do that with, uh,

with an ETF because unlike, uh, I mean, granted Bitcoin does have a very limited number of coins out there. It's very hard capped at 21 million. Theoretically though, with these options, one that we did something we didn't get into is that they're limited to 25,000 contracts. So each person can only hold the position limit is 25,000 contracts, which is the lowest position limit you can have essentially, which doesn't, I mean, I bits volume alone justifies having like a, the, the largest limit. So most ETS have a limit of 200,000 contracts or 250,000 contracts. I bet volume alone justifies that it's just that the CFTC and SEC are worried about using these options to manipulate the underlying market. Um, I guess it's not that crazy of a concern to be worried about,

but a 25,000 position limit is, uh, is rather low. That said it will likely increase in like drive competition. Cause theoretically, right drive competition because theoretically, if you're really trading this and you get up to $25,000, 25,000 contracts on iBit, you can just go to Fidelity's FBTC or Grayscale or Bitwise or- Just because I do it across seven products. It almost forces people to use other products and drive liquidity to other products. I mean, at the beginning of the day, it's like not very, you know, capitalistic to do it this way, but I think it is going to help drive liquidity to other products. Preston Pyshko That makes a lot of sense. I mean,

I'm still stuck on the people that are betting on $180,000, $190,000 Bitcoin by the end of December. You know, when we were talking before the show, I made a no nut November joke. You were celebrating November. I may have or may have not asked if you're made a no nut November joke. You were celebrating November. I may have or may have not asked if you're also celebrating no nut November. Guys, it's casual Wednesdays. But this is like these guys are celebrating huge brass balls December. I mean, to say that you think Bitcoin is going to double in the next 40 days and actually put your money on it is really bold. Yeah. I mean, as far as I'm concerned, it is a lottery ticket. I mean, we've seen Bitcoin do stuff like that, but I mean, a hundred percent

after a rally like this within a couple of days, I mean, the one that comes to mind is when in 2017, in December of 2017, when Bitcoin went from like around that 10K number right up right to 20K at that really high number. Yeah, but 10 to 20 at that market cap size is a very, very different move as we are 94 to 190. Right. I mean, the amount of money that has to flow in is just remarkable. And maybe some of that can happen, you know, with these options. But listen, I think, you know, 100K by the end of the year seemed crazy before. That's easy, right? We're less than 10% away from that.

I think everybody can imagine it. But starting to talk about anything above the 120-ish area starts to sound a little crazy. But you just sent me this. What do we got here? Yeah, I mean, so the orange bars there, amber bars, if you will, those are put contracts. And this is a number of traded contracts by the strike price. So this is across all different maturities. So the furthest maturity out, which goes out to 2027.

But for the most part, all of this was heavily around out of the money options. So you can look like the number one there was the $55 strike price. Right now, IBIT's trading about 52. So 55 is going to be like 97, 98K roughly. So that's where a lot of the trading volume is happening over varying different maturities. But you can see no matter how you slice it, those blue bars are the call options. One, they're way bigger than the put options, which you showed in that pie chart I tweeted yesterday. But it's also just shows the skew to heavily out of the money, basically upside

bullish calls, call buying to bet on Bitcoin continuing to run here. I mean, these are huge bets relative to the size of Bitcoin. And people have long sort of pointed to the fact that once we get options approved, the amount of just volume surrounding Bitcoin is going to increase by many, many, many multiples, right? So it may be a 2X, 5X, 10X. These might be people who never even would have bought Bitcoin or traded even the ETFs themselves, who are just going to find creative ways to use these options to make yield and such. But this is a massive unlock for general interest in trading Bitcoin or trading around Bitcoin. Yes, exactly. I mean, most people aren't going to run into that 25,000 contract

position limit. I mean, obviously institutions can, but one thing that will definitely be limited is some of those products that would offer something like trying to get income or structured defined outcome, like limit risks on the downside, but with capped upside exposure to Bitcoin, they can't really launch those types of products until those position limits are higher and we get flex options, which is basically more flexible options that those also aren't allowed just yet. So, I mean, I think all these things are going to happen. I think the position limits are going to increase. I think a lot of different things are going to happen, but they're not happening anytime soon. And things are off to a fantastic start and we'll

see how the trading goes with the other ETFs that are getting options starting today. Right. So what do we got here? You sent me this one as well. Yeah, this is the trading volume based on the expiration date. So it's no surprise if anyone looks at options or trading or even futures, any sort of derivatives, the things that are going to trade the most are the things that are expiring closest. So that's the December 20th, 2024 contract that had 41% of the contracts traded. The next one was the following month, January 2025, 30%, and then so on and so forth. So basically, as you get further and further out, the amount of volume and options contracts that were traded gets lower.

But you can see that May of 2025 and January of 2027, we go out pretty, pretty far. And this is the total number of expiration dates on the contracts right now. So it's rather small. Usually there tends to be a lot more expiration dates. There's weekly expirations. I mean, there's plenty of stocks now that have zero day expiration products. They basically have one day options. So this is just where we are to start. I don't know exactly how long it would take to build up to have other expiration contract dates, but that's where we started and we'll see how quickly things progress. But based on how fast things picked up yesterday, I think they're going to progress pretty quickly. How firm are the conclusions that we can draw from one day? I mean, today we see

like a million puts come in because people are doing the cash and carry trade or other things like that. Or is this a pretty good idea of what's going to come as these build, at least while price is bullish? I mean, like you said, let's see if it drops 10 or 15% what those options look like, right? The price of Bitcoin. I mean, because we will get pretracements, Scott. I don't want to be a bearer of bad news, but there will be a time when Bitcoin goes down 10 or more percent in probably a couple hours. Yeah. I mean, I would argue you could get much higher percentages if you expand that time range of downturns. But yeah, I don't know. I tend to lean on the fact that I think one, no matter how you slice it, the options on these ETFs are going to be impactful to price. Like I said at the beginning, I do think the fact

that this was heavily skewed toward calls and out of the money bullish calls to be specific. Anyone selling those options has to hedge those positions. So if things start moving in one direction, these options and the different Greek letters that these dealers are exposed to could start driving Bitcoin price itself. So I think one, it's going to be impactful on the price. That's something we can definitely say. Is it going to stay this heavily skewed towards calls? I don't know. You're right.

We could have puts come in like today and overwhelm the trading that we saw yesterday, right? But while it's bullish and while things are on a bull run, while Bitcoin price is running up, it just seems like to me, we're probably getting a little bit more of the same. I mean, time will tell. I'm going to be watching today to see exactly what type of trading volume we see in these contracts. But I tend to think this is a little bit at least indicative of where things are going to go. Maybe not as extreme, but I think this is what these are going to be used for, for the most part, at least until, you know, it might take some time for some maturity to enter the space, particularly if we get, like I said, higher

position limits, flex options are allowed, all these different things, then we'll see a much more diversified exposure across like, you know, different strike prices and different expiration dates and put more better ratios to put contracts being allowed out there. Yeah, man, I'm taking a look at the Bitcoin chart. Like I said, another new all-time high today. Hey, there was a period there of like four days where it didn't make an all-time high. I know people were very panicked that we need one every single day, but I mean, here we are at $94,300. But I look at that chart and then I click over to this one, MicroStrategy. Holy shit. Pre-market $462.12. It just passed 300 last Monday. It just passed 400 yesterday. It just

passed 200 like two weeks ago, three weeks ago. Now it has more than doubled at 462, making MicroStrategy one of the top 100 US public companies by market cap. And a lot of people, the reason I'm bringing this up, viewed MicroStrategy and options on MicroStrategy as a proxy for trading Bitcoin or sort of a leveraged bet on Bitcoin and showing the roadmap of what could happen with options. Now I'm at the point where people are sending me screenshots of how much they made on their call options, on MicroStrategy. But I mean, is this kind of laying out the path

of what could happen? Or has MicroStrategy now jumped the ship completely because of his convertible notes and the amount he's buying and the amount of money he's spending and raising to do it? Yeah, I think it's a little, I think a micro strategy is a unique situation here. I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on the flywheel that Michael Saylor has created in demand for his

stock and being able to turn that demand into owning more Bitcoin, which creates more fervor. I mean, it's basically a flywheel as best I can see. And those numbers are just absolutely infinite money glitch, I think is the term that you're looking for. Yeah, essentially. Not a scary term at all, guys. Well, the other thing I would say is like, I talked about the fact that 40-act products can have options listed on day one. I mean, there's a bunch of levered micro strategy ETFs that now have like multiple billions of dollars in them, both because of the run and because of money is pouring

in, MSTU, MSTX, their 2X MicroStrategy, they had options from day one when they listed. So did some of the other ETFs. So those ETFs are trading heavily. They're extremely heavily traded. There's a lot of options trading on them. So people are not only just doing call options on MSTR, MicroStrategy, they're also doing on the 2x leveraged version. So if you had out of the money call options on a 2x leveraged MicroStrategy ETF with a strike price way out of the money, you've done extremely well over the last few days. I mean, I constantly get people asking my opinion on MicroStrategy and I work in TradFi. So I talk to a lot of people and they're like, yeah, I think I want to short it. It doesn't make sense.

And I'm just like, dude, I am like, this is not something I would mess with. Like I personally like short, if you want to go along this and take a shot on momentum continuing, I guess I can understand it. But like betting against this cratering while it's on this run, like I, you have, you, you could easily get run over in the way things have gone. So some of the people that like have asked me this question in the last couple of weeks, I hope they didn't actually enter those short positions. I mean, we saw and I've talked about this a lot, but even on these huge, huge Bitcoin upside days where price went up $8,000 in a day, the largest day ever, half the liquidations were longs because donkeys use 50X leverage and that move during the day for one hour where it goes down a couple percent gets them liquidated. I mean, you don't just jump in front of a moving train. And those are people who

are right. So imagine being on the wrong side and trying to short it, right? You can get liquidated going long on the best day ever just because of the volatility within that day. And MicroStrategy, I've got to imagine now, is far more volatile even than Bitcoin. I look at MicroStrategy pretty much every day now. I just look at the price chart to see what's going on. I only started doing that within the last couple of weeks because I've been like, this is getting absurd. But yeah, definitely not a micro strategy expert, a huge fan of Michael Saylor, but not, not an expert enough to talk about exactly, um, what he's doing there. And I mean,

all I can say is he's been, it's been extremely successful. Anyone arguing that, like, I see people talking about how it's a sham and all this stuff. And it's like, dude, the scoreboard in this world is the price of the stock. And it's the same thing when people argue about Elon Musk. I'm just like, just look at his companies. Look at the valuation. Look at what the market's putting on it. Yeah, this is the scoreboard. This is it.

It can change theoretically, yes. But right now, this is the scoreboard. I'm old enough to remember when Michael Saylor was going to be poor. He was going to go broke. He was going to get liquidated if price went below $20,000. It was all over. He was the dumbest person in all of finance, and now he's like the Warren Buffett of our century,

and it happened in a year. Yeah. We will see. Yeah, we will see. Listen, the game is like I brought up that meme, but you know, the famous meme of the football, the high school football players, like, I'm not going to lie. I thought they had us in the first half. I mean, my thing is like, you talk about price under, under 20 K. It's like back in like 2018, 2019. I remember. And even in 2020, it's like, Bitcoin's dead. It's

under 10,000. It's down at like $3,000 a coin. Like this is completely dead. It's worthless. It's going to zero. And then in 21, it was like, this thing's down under 20K. It's dead. It's going to zero. And I just look forward to seeing next year or wherever, like what number that is.

It's like, oh, it's under 90K. It's dead and it's going to zero. Every couple of years, the number that the people who hate this space point to gets higher and higher and higher. So that's been the trend. Obviously, it can reverse, but I wouldn't bet on that. So we got another piece of news here. I love your take on Justin. Switzerland's 21Shares introduces Ethereum staking and Ethereum Core ETP, rebranding it as Ethereum core staking ETP. Now, that's not a

United States product, obviously, but 21 shares does operate in the US, or at least they participate in a number of the ETFs that we have. But it is interesting to see staking happening elsewhere, because I think a lot of people have pointed to the Ethereum spot ETFs having no real chance unless they introduce staking because anyone sensible would just buy Ethereum and stake it and earn a yield instead of buying the ETF. Yeah. I mean, there's a bunch of staking ETFs in Europe. I guess they want to put that in the name so it's clear front and center because a bunch of other issuers have launched products that have staking in the name. There's one in Canada. And like you said, that's one of the detriments of the spot Ethereum ETFs here in the US. But if you look at what's happened to the flows for Ethereum ETFs over the last,

basically since the election, they've risen from the ashes. They've risen from the dead. So they had net outflows of over 500 million initially through November 5th. They launched at the end of July and they flipped to a 300 plus million inflow. So that's an 800 million flow swing, basically of people pouring money into the Ethereum ETFs right around the election. So there is demand coming in from the space. But again, as you said, until we get staking, I think it's hard to justify if you can access another product that another ETP or another product that allows staking, or you can just stake yourself. It's hard to justify unless you're forced to, unless you actually can't touch the underlying asset and you need the ETF wrapper. It's kind of hard to justify buying an Ethereum ETF, no matter how bullish you are, because it just makes more sense to

get the asset yourself, stake it or go somewhere else where you can get into a product that offers staking. Yeah. I just want to, as we got a couple more minutes, there's an article here that kind of touches on a topic. Robinhood is the top crypto deregulation trade, Bernstein says. Okay. But I just want to generally ask you, how much do you think the election is going to sort of unlock the crypto space? And of course, how much will it affect the platforms like Robinhood where you will be able to trade these options and these ETFs you already can? Obviously, I mean, it seems like a pretty big deal that these guys are going to basically be able to list whatever they want. Yeah. I mean, to basically be able to list whatever they want.

Yeah. I mean, will they be able to list whatever they want? I don't know that's necessarily the case. I do think like we're going to get some clarity about what's required to list these things. What's security? What's a commodity? I also think some of that clarity is going to like the space is like we're finally getting a clarity here. Even if we get the best people in these positions, there's likely going to be things that are outlined that this space is not going to like. They're just not going to be happy

with it. It's going to be like, we wanted clarity, but not that clarity. That's the way I view it. But I really do, this is extremely bullish for the space as far as I'm concerned, the election. I mean, you can just look at the prices of all these different coins, particularly Bitcoin, Solana, you name it. The DeFi tokens like Aave and others, they run big time. And I think that makes complete sense. I mean, even if we don't get the complete regulatory clarity, there's not pro crypto bills coming through the Senate and the House. There's not all these different positive things that potentially happen. Even if we don't get a strategic Bitcoin reserve, what have you, right? Just the fact that it's not going

to be an administration with regulatory agencies across the US with their foot on the throat of the industry. I mean, there's plenty of companies that couldn't just get bank accounts. These companies, Coinbase, Kraken, you name it. They're spending tens of millions of dollars on a regular basis to defend themselves in court. Like if, if that just, even if that doesn't fully stop, I think it will stop. And I think it's definitely going to slow. Even that is extremely bullish to space, let alone the other things that could happen to help like, you know, clean up exactly how this, this space needs to be regulated, how

it should be viewed and what have you. So I don't know. I just think it makes complete sense. I've actually talked with a bunch of people internally, like this is overdone. This doesn't make sense. It's just an election. And I'm like, honestly, I tell people for stocks and other things, like, don't worry about the election for like your investments. Like it's no matter how you look at it, like the stock market tends to go up into the right because capitalism takes over. The president can only do so much, but in the crypto space, the way things have been in the last four years in particular, to go up into the right because capitalism takes over. The president can only do so much. But in the crypto space, the way things have been in the last four years in particular,

this is extremely positive for the space. As I said, even if we don't get half the things that Trump and different people have promised. All right, man, we ran into 930. Perfect timing. People are naming you over here. We've got Mike Schmidt, 1983 for your mustache. I don't know if you're old enough for Mike Schmidt. We got Ron Burgundy, whale's vagina. Yeah. I mean, guys, who do you think that, you know, before I let James go, who do you think he looks the most like? I like Ron Burgundy. That's pretty good. It's pretty good. I'll take it. That's a solid stash. Yeah, I just, I mean, it is,

it is a solid stash. All right, man, guys, you can follow James on X, of course, tag down below James. Thank you as always. Uh,

now I'll let you get back to your actual job. Thanks, Scott. Have a good day. Have a good one. All right, guys, always magnificent to talk with James.

I can't grow a mustache like that. My face gets very, very itchy. Bitcoin currently trading at $94,678.94. Astounding. Astounding. And you know what? We were talking about, obviously, the volume of options and ETFs in the United States, you know, it's actually getting a lot more volume where it counts. Doge and XRP, if you guys didn't see this. South Korean traders are known for pushing euphoric rallies on tokens. Understatement of the century. These guys are gambling crackheads with huge stacks and they DGAF about anything. And they are trading Dogecoin and XRP

with higher volume than Bitcoin. Absolutely amazing what is going on in this market right now. I'm going to bring on Chris. Maybe you can calm us down and chill this euphoria that the South Koreans are having. Yeah, I don't think I've got that kind of pull. By the way, I just saw, I just happened to see the market open and MicroStrategy up today. What do we got? Yesterday opened at $3.87, up another $90. Today, since yesterday. What the

is going on here? Well, I'll tell you, man, you know, everybody getting excited about Bitcoin, right? I mean, whether you're, you know, everybody getting excited about Bitcoin, right? I mean, whether you're, you know, whether you're looking at the proxies, you're looking at Bitcoin itself or whatever you're doing. I mean, everybody's getting kind of excited about it. And it's hard, you know, it's hard not to, right? I mean, we can even look at the at the miners right now, and they're all up green right now at the beginning of the day, other than, well, I've got about 17 of them here, but other than GREE, it's the only one that's down. It's down like half a percent and even that's raising. So, I mean, you know, if we look at our, you know, our list of miners here,

our public miners, it's just, everybody's going green with it. MicroStrategy, no surprise. We had an initial target there at around 466.66 with a secondary target right here that we just hit at that 474 or so. And, you know, and I said the likelihood was because we were coming so strongly through these pivots that we would overextend into the R5 pivot area at least. And so that's kind of getting us up there on 521, maybe, you know, 532 at least as we kind of continue to push that rally so um you know again Michael Sturges is not really a surprise you know I've been talking about this triangle for a while we usually get a thrust out of the triangle which was what we've got here um it's just it's just been a good play overall I saw that Wall Street Bets is trying to load up on puts. So the Wall Street Bets.

Have fun staying poor. Man, I'll tell you. That's ballsy. Well, you know, it is. If you step in front of a moving train, I mean, technically, you look at the chart and you go, yeah, it's probably topped out or pretty close to it. Yeah, but if it goes up another 20% before crashing 40, you'll be liquidated 10 times over and it'll be irrelevant.

There's no fundamental or technical reason to look at the chart and pick a number where this is going to stop. Yeah, and that's the thing I think that a lot of retail misunderstands. They want to time these reversals, these tops and these bottoms. But the way you make money consistently in the markets is you trade in the direction of the trend. Don't step in front of a speeding freight train. It's just crazy that we see this cycle after cycle. And sometimes even with the same people, some know, some of the same accounts, bigger accounts will be out there and they'll be trying to continually top time that, you know,

I'm going to short it here. I'm going to short it here. But why would you do that? Especially with something like Bitcoin or, you know, Bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy, you know, and miners and whatnot. Why are you going to step in front of them when they're really just kind of flying? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense other than you think you want to be cool and you think you can do it. But man, I'll tell you, 30 years of doing this, you stay, you just trade in the direction of the trend. I mean, for most people, if that's what they did, that would eliminate at least half the bad trades they take,

at least, you know, and put them a lot further up. And at the end of the day, trading is all about making money. I mean, well, you know, and I saw your guest earlier and he said, you know, when he was talking about the big scoreboard thing, right. It's about the price. Right. But I mean, for traders, that's what it's about. It's, can you consistently lock in profits? That's your scoreboard. It's not, oh, I got this one trade this one time where I was able to make a few bucks you know i was able to guess properly because most of the time you know prices you know when it gets going it's not going to stop often where you think it is so you know where we just continue riding micro strategy up further and

uh you know we'll look for the reversal when it happens we're not going to try and guess you know you know just automatically put in a short at these targets that doesn't make a whole lot of sense right yeah so listen we got bitcoin making you all- just automatically put in a short at these targets. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Right. Yeah. So listen, we got Bitcoin making new all time highs seemingly on a daily basis. Hey, we just mentioned maybe you don't want to just short this at any arbitrary moment. But is there a target you're looking for where you think at least this could, you know, lose a bit of steam or consolidate? We kind of just did it. And then obviously we'll sort of segue into what this

means for altcoins as Bitcoin dominance seemingly continues to make a new cycle high, not all time high, obviously, but new cycle high after new cycle high. I guess last week it got up to 61. Now it's back to 60.7, but still it was below 60 just a day or two ago. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. And, you know, with Bitcoin, it hit the initial pattern target. So again, you know, I always do this thing where we kind of measure out the pullback. And then you're looking at that 1618. It's right up there, just shy of that 95,000 area, and we're hitting that. So I mean, that's an initial target. I, you know, but with Bitcoin, we often go well beyond the initial target. So again, I've always said,

you know, listen, that'll be the first kind of thing we look at generically. Again, like microstrategy, you know, where you have this strong movement through the pivots, it is very aggressive movement. We're seeing that same thing here with Bitcoin. And so wouldn't be surprised at all to see it rallying up here to 108, 108.5 up here at the R5 pivot on this daily chart. If we zoom it out to the weekly, let's see if we can get TradingView to pull up. There it is. This R5 pivot again is up here at around 117 or so. Again, very aggressive movement here and then a lot of sideways.

But here we go aggressively moving up again so you know what i found with trading pivots um was that when you get this type of aggressive movement up through them usually you're going to hit at least the r4 most often the r5 or higher you're going to run through all the resistance pivots here and just kind of make your run through so um, um, you know, again, that's kind of where we're at here. Uh, right here, I've got, this is a five, you know, I've got a one, two, three, four, and five here, but that again, just a generic count. I do think wave five here will continue to overextend much higher. Um, so, you know, I've given some targets out of the past, you know, we look up around 125, 132, 146, 172, 174, potentially 224, 228. Yeah. You know, it depends on how much it overextends, but these are the different target

levels that I'm kind of generically, you know, general, generally watching as, as we continue to rally up. The real question is what happens here at a hundred thousand, right? So a hundred thousand is a really psychological round number, tens number, zeros number, all that stuff you want to say. Usually there's one of two things that happens. Very rarely in psychological levels are like that where you pull up above it and then break back down through it and then back up and kind of just hover around it. Most of the time, what you'll do is you'll get an impulsive breakout through it, pull back and retest as support and continue higher, or you'll get rejected at it,

pull back and then do the impulsive breakout. And so that's what I'm kind of interested in seeing here. How do we approach that 100,000 area? Do we get the rejection and the pullback, maybe 80,000 or something? I told you we're going to $99,999.99, then back to test the old all-time high at 74,000. And you know what'll happen? Some fool will be out there going, man, I had a target at 100,000. It was just one penny away. It has to get up there before I take

my profit. Oh, no. Can you imagine though how depressed people will be at 74 000 if we go to 99 when they would be dying for 74 like two weeks ago that's the that's the part i love i mean i also love the people that like i literally saw people on x i'm not going to name names who i remember when bitcoin was at like 15 500 at the bottom of this cycle or 15,800 who are saying, I'll buy at 12,000. And I've seen people who didn't buy the entire time who are now saying they're looking to buy at $74,000 on the retest of the all-time high. Yeah, but that's what happens. It happens every cycle, right? Retail comes in, really kind of starts thinking about coming in when you get to new all time highs. They miss the entire run up. You miss that 15, 16,000 to 74,000, you know, heading up there.

And it's you know, it's it's painful for me to watch. You know, I've been watching it for years in different markets and different cycles, you know. And but the one thing people should understand is obviously that people are the same. Right. Every second we get new people into the markets and they do the exact same thing over and over again. And it's the same thing whether you're in stocks, whether you're in Forex, whether you're in crypto, whether you're in whatever it is. It's always the same thing because human beings tend to act a certain way. Um, and so, yeah, you know, we just get there and, uh, you just kind of write it up and then they kind of come in, you know, in the new all time high and you're like, where have you been the last, you know, for the recent four X, where have you been? So, but yeah, probably actually buy the 99,999

cause they're waiting for the explosion through $100,000, and then they'll just be down 25% like a week later. Have fun. There you go, right? And they'll sell $74,000 instead of buying it. That's my new scenario. Buy $99,000, sell $74,000, goes to $150,000. Okay.

Well, real quick, before we jump on to Altier, I just wanted to point out, again, when we were down here, I talked about likely just getting the breakout and then this accumulation on the rise here as it continues going. It looks a lot like we're getting a similar move here. We've got the big breakout. We've got this overlapping slightly higher highs and lows coming up here as we're doing here. So, I mean, realistically, we could, I'm not saying we have to, you know, just copy this move and paste it over here and we go. But, you know, we're realistically seeing the same kind of idea where we're just kind of getting some reaccumulation as it continues to rise slowly, grind up higher there. And, you know, a lot of times that's the product of this long sideways here. The longer you go sideways, the stronger and further your breakout is going to be. So, you know, again, the idea that

the top is in now or whatnot, I still think just makes absolutely little sense. We are the same. You say, oh, but look at how overbought we are on RSI and stochastic RSI. But again, same thing right here, right? And we completely reset the stochastic RSI here as we continued to rally and we kind of just pulled back. I mean, look at this. RSI from well overbought here, 90, about 90, 89, all the way down here to around 36. And what happened during that time? We just kind of rallied up here from like 32 up to the pullback there at 38. And I see, listen, I see some, I mean, you can see that there's potential bearish divergence right now, right?

It's not confirmed, but it was there, but it's, you know, it just gets followed by hidden bull divs and, you know, ends up pushing up. But I mean, yeah, if we put in a lower high here on RSI, maybe we get that pullback, but that could be well over a hundred thousand, even if that happens. And the weekly is just getting back into overbought, which is the power zone. Like, you know, people get worried about overbought RSI,

but timeframe matters. I mean, you can stay overbought. Look, Bitcoin in the last cycle, October 20th hit, October 2020 hit overbought and stayed overbought until price was 65,000. Yeah, yeah. You want to be overbought. The moral of the story is you want to be overbought on price was 65,000. Yeah. Yeah. And that was a big move. You want to be overbought. The moral of the story is you want to be overbought on

RSI on the weekly. That's just when you're getting started. Yeah, exactly. Overbought just tells you that the trend is extremely bullish. Undersold or oversold just tells you the trend is extremely bearish. It doesn't mean it's going to reverse immediately. So again, if you're trying to short micro strategy, you know, what are you doing? Right. Let it tell you it's ready to kind of potentially do a reversal. Don't, don't be guessing at it because, you know, but again, we get out there, people use, you know, trading as a gambling thing instead of, you know, being realistic about it. So, well, let's go ahead and jump over here, man. We've got some, uh, some alts here.

Um, I've got BAL USD here. Uh, we've got in a lot of these, when you see a lot of these, um, alts, this is what we're seeing. Uh, we're seeing these ranges, these accumulation ranges that they're just now breaking out of. Now, some of them have already taken off, but you're going to see it more than a few like this here today. But we've got a one and a two here, three minimum expected at $3 and one center. So secondary target up there, $3 and 47 cents. So, you know, we're getting ready to kind of break out, really kind of take off in this range and head on up. And that's just way three. So, you know, we've got a way three, we'll get a four pullback, we'll get a five higher, we'll get a pullback and then we'll, you know, jump up higher again. But the, the entries are looking pretty good right now. Uh, we've got Bobo USD here again, large accumulation range, no spring, just the last point of support

right here at the S1 pivot here on this daily timeframe. We're trying to, uh, break out above the pivot after the descending wedge and throw under i mean every it's such a perfect setup to go long right here um initial target 31.17 cents secondary target 36.30 just coming up here big picture on boba though is that's a one that's a two right around 78.6 so i mean i think you know ultimately we end up breaking out higher just to get to the all-time high it's already a dollar 28 or so from you know we're sitting kind of at 20 cents right now you can see the weekly has a ton of room here i mean the setup is there right i'm just laughing at boba like i don't know if you're

making boba fett boba fett boba fett joke or the kind of tea with the little tapioca balls. There you go. That's what I was thinking, the tapioca ball one there. My son loves that. The name I'm speaking up with. Yeah. HFT here, USD. Again, multi-month accumulation structure here.

This one had a spring right here around the s1 pivot we had the breakout through the descending resistance jump across the creek here which is the uh breakout through the um through the supply here and we're heading up higher i've got initial target up there at around uh 0.2396 on that as can see, that's the previous kind of level of support and resistance as well. Low volume node. It aligns really well as well as being the target there. So we'll look for that breakout to kind of carry us up there. And most likely, you know, we get rejected. We pull on back down here to around 16, 15, 16 cents. And then we kind of really take off for the next move up. You know, you get like a one

and a two and you get that three heading back up there. So pushing through this other low volume node here, getting around 40 cents or whatnot as it heads up higher. KSM USD here, again, multi-month. And all these are coming right here from that August 5th flush that we had, right? Everybody's coming right here from that, that August 5th, uh, flush that we had, right. Everybody's all worried about was like, Oh my God,

you know, yen carry train implosion, blah, blah, blah. But again, pull back right to the S1 pivot. The,

all of these such great, you know, areas of where you're looking for to get that reversal. Um, that gives us, you know, this is a one or two. We've got a three up here. Minimum 3260, secondary target at 3935.

So, you know, either before or after the low volume node here. Pond USD, what is it again? Same thing. Cumulation, we have this descending wedge, throw under, S1 pivot. Huge bullish divergence here. And so we get a 1 and a 2. And I believe that's a 3 and a 4 is complete here.

Almost 50% pullback on that 4. Well, actually not quite. Let me see here. Got that wrong place. There we go. Yeah, 50% pullback. Perfect. Secondary wave four target. Based on the height of this pullback, that gives us wave five up here at about 0.0311. So, you know, a lot of these given us just about 100% or so on the next move coming up. But again, that would also give us five waves up here right around the previous swing high, which is what we generally tend to look for in Elliott Wave. We got RPL USD here. Yeah, once again, same idea here, though not quite as far back because this August 5th was higher than here. But nonetheless, still looks like we got

accumulation here, good volume and price action profile here. a one it looks like we have a two here so if we can get a breakout back above this swing high right here at the uh was that the daily pivot right around nine dollars and 75 cents being impulsive breakout and close about you know close above that minimum expected wave three target up at 1790 secondary target at $20 and 85 cents. So, you know, again, a lot of alts, it seems like every few weeks we come on and we talk about alts for the last few months and the structure and how similar it is. And, you know, again, this is something to pay attention to because, you know, crypto is a really unique market in that everything kind of moves together. So you're all generally tend to look about the same structurally, which means if you get in one,

you can probably find multiple others to get into as well. Now you're going to have some that have already taken off and gone well and done their thing, but you know, a great percentage of them are going to look about the same. And so, you know, if you're looking across the charts and you're seeing that gives you a little bit more comfort, I guess, uh, in potentially getting in, uh, and, you know, and, and even finding multiple, uh, trades to get into with that. Man, I'm lucky. I just happened to take a peek at the Coinbase chart because somebody mentioned it and it's, it's back to, uh, same levels that traded at the first day. Back, back when, uh, when Kramer said that it was a long day, it was a great buy?

Yeah. First day right there. We're higher than it closed on the first day of trading. I had a good squiggle on this one. I should have paid better attention to that. Coinbase is my largest stock position because I love exposure. That was a pretty good squiggle right there. Went a lot higher, but still 116 to 208 but i mean everything that's you know bitcoin adjacent is absolutely flying

i you know i used to make a lot of coinbase jokes like when price was down here i would post pictures of scuba divers holding bags and say i was so underwater but i bought this whole time because now i've accumulated such a massive coinbase position it's almost uncomfortable and i'm and i love it oh yeah it's been it's been absolutelybase position, it's almost uncomfortable. And I love it. Oh, yeah. It's been absolutely great. I mean, it's following. We've got a trade out with that right now with our Traders Club.

And, you know, we're finally starting to get near the take profit on that. But it's been in for a while. It's been a good trade. The MicroStrategy, of course, has been a great trade. A lot of miners. We've had some really good trades with that, especially when people were all downtrodden about it uh you know the other one's ethereum ethereum's been another one everybody's still kind of downtrodden about it but it continues to move higher um so you know there's there's something in that you know when people are overly you know

negative about a specific kind of uh stock or something, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, but you definitely should really start paying attention to that point and looking and going, is this going to be another one of those trades where we can really kind of bank on there just being so, you know, so negative about it. I found, I found that I tweeted it. I found the squiggle, the squiggle. Look at that. that there it is at once it's just for proof this is on uh november 28th 2023 a year ago man what a squiggle that was all right guys you can find tx west capital on x you can check out everything he's doing join his group learn to trade from him like i did come on do it this is the time This is the time. This is the time. Although you should

have learned before so that you actually don't suck now, but this is the time to be active. Yeah. If you're not, if you're in there gambling, it's just, don't do it guys. It's such a waste of money. You're going to waste so much money on the losses on just gambling. Even if it's not for me, figure out how to trade from somebody. The lifestyle they can give you is amazing if done correctly. All right. I agree with him. Most of you won't do it correctly though, so be careful out there and just maybe buy some Bitcoin and be Michael Saylor. All right. That's all we got for you guys today. Thank you so much. See you guys. Well, next week won't be because of Thanksgiving.

We'll be here Monday, Tuesday, but probably not wednesday thursday but uh we'll see you guys soon thanks chris always appreciate it take care