The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Golden Cross | Should We Expect A Rally? | Week In Review

Episode Date: February 3, 2023

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Surprise, I'm in Dubai and everybody here, not surprisingly, is super bullish on Bitcoin. The consensus here is that the bottom is in, things are going to go up and all is well. But I have a feeling that after today's job numbers, unemployment numbers, that maybe Jerome Powell has a different idea. We're going to discuss all that and more here from Hotel Room on my low budget setup. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Belker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get Let's go. they rent an entire resort. This year is in Dubai. It's called the Satoshi Roundtable. I'm contractually obligated not to talk about the conference too much,

to be quite honest. But I got a last minute invite, luckily, and they rent an entire, one of the nicest resorts in the world for a couple hundred people. We're here by invite only for security purposes. Nobody else is allowed on it for a couple of days. And it's just absolutely nuts. Now, we're not allowed to talk about who

is here. We're not allowed to take pictures, not allowed to take videos. But I can say that it's absolutely nuts. CEOs of the biggest exchanges, some of them whose names may be letters, VCs, like I had lunch with a guy whose name rhymes with Kim Blaper. And it's just the whole resort. You walk around, there's nobody here. And then you walk in a room and it's just the whole resort. You walk around, there's nobody here, and then you walk in a room, and it's like,

but amazingly is that, you know, half the people who have been on this show over the years, there's so many of them are here, and I'm finally getting to meet them in person. There are a few people who I know would allow you to say they're here. Rand Nooner is here. We were just having some drinks.

I ran into Carl the Moon, who's a Dubai guy. There's a lot of people here, but mostly it's CEOs, builders, and just very, very, very, very old school Bitcoiners. And it's fucking awesome. It is really, really, really, really cool. And dinner's happening right now. Instead of hanging out with all these people, I decided I'm going to come hang out with you. Black Diamond off the grid asked Mr. Wonderful. No, he's not here. He's not here. But but I did interview him about two or three days ago, so that'll be coming out next week. You know that we're consistently in touch with Kevin O'Leary and have him here.

Awesome. But someone asked why so secretive? Mark wants to know. A lot of these people value their privacy, A, and B much money in one place, make it extremely, extremely secure. People don't leave and then nobody has to worry about like securing. So I don't think you realize the CEOs of these exchanges and stuff. They roll very, very, very deep with security. Right. So it's a big deal. Big, big deal. So anyways, yes, everyone, SBF there. Yes, that's what I said.

The initials, I was talking about SBF. He's here doing SBF stuff. Des has golf skins. That could get expensive. I am playing night golf tomorrow night in Dubai, but I have a very fucked up elbow. So my tendonitis might get in the way. What's it all about?

Well, it's called an unconference. It's basically just an excuse. People come up with topics and then they're allowed to host a room basically. And you just go around. Some of them are like in the pool and you hang out and you talk to people about crypto things.

Yeah. Anyways. Yeah. Yeah. Understand that if you have a lot of money or a known personality, you need security, especially in crypto, because it's not the same as being like a celebrity. If someone robs you, the bank gets the money back. Right. Not the case in crypto. But guys, nobody wants to hear about that. Just turned tonight. I'm literally like out my window. I'm looking at like Atlantis over the Persian Gulf. This is great. Crazy. I've never been to Dubai before either. So quite an experience. But anyways, so there's a lot of news.

You know, Fridays we do the Week in Review. And there's been quite a lot, but nothing bigger than what just dropped like a new Funk Flex mixtape hot on these streets. I'm doing this with one screen, of course, guys. It's challenging. Jobs report, U.S. economy adds 570,000 jobs in January. Unemployment rate falls to 3.4% as labor market surprises. Holy crap, the U.S. economy is strong AF. Mike McGlone says it every single Monday.

He says, listen, nobody is respecting the U.S. economy, just how strong it is. But says, listen, nobody is respecting the U.S. economy, just how strong it is. But guys, the expectation on the jobs report was like 188,000 jobs to be added. The economy added 517,000 jobs. That has to be the biggest, biggest, biggest hit over prediction maybe in history. And they were expecting unemployment to be 3.6% and it fell to 3.4%. Now this is good news, right? We want people to have jobs that pay well. And no, no. Jerome Powell is sitting at home right now, head exploding, super pissed off, trying to figure out how to take your job. They took our jobs. You want your job.

You need to lose your job if the Fed is going to stop hiking rates. With numbers like this, you can expect the Fed to confidently continue to hike rates, not really give a damn. Or maybe, maybe, guys, maybe their NBA just didn't prepare them for a situation where inflation is high and we don't go into a recession. Maybe this is the maybe this is the soft landing that we were talking about. I don't know. But, yeah, Scott, Scott Crenshaw says still true. Don't fight the Fed. Well, I can tell you right now that the market is fighting the Fed. I haven't checked it in the last 10 minutes, but I'm going to assume that it's down. We will look at that in a minute. But an absolutely smashing jobs report,

unemployment down, U.S. economy humming along, continuing to decrease the odds of a recession unless the Fed forces us to have one. I guess the question is, how many of those are people's third, fourth, fifth, 17 jobs. I don't know. But speaking of old white guys who probably hate you, Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger calls for crypto ban in the US. You're 99 years old or something. Dude, go away. Why do you even care?

You put him and Warren Buffett together and add their ages and you're almost back to the American Revolution. I respect everything they've done in investing, but give me a break. Why is this guy getting airtime about Bitcoin? He said it's gambling and blah, blah, blah, and it should be banned in the United States. And it made me think of this amazing meme. Bitcoin, Bitcoin. The guy's literally, he's literally 100 years old. Like he's literally 100 years old. His chair just, you know, just like you can watch him dying while he's saying it.

I don't want the guy to die. I just want him to like be quiet. I mean, I wonder like if he's wearing Depends when he says this. Is he drinking one of those adult nutrient shakes? I don't get it. He's so old. First of all, how is he so old? Maybe hating Bitcoin is the secret to living to 100.

Did you ever think about that? That's just science. That's definitely possible. That's definitely possible. But this old man is yelling at the cloud. He thinks that we need to ban Bitcoin. And I don't think it's going to happen. I'll tell you that the United Arab Emirates is not going to ban Bitcoin.

Some of the people in the room, obviously, the hosts to some degree are royalty, the heads of state here, blah, blah, metaverse adoption, crypto adoption, Web3 adoption, massive here because this country actually understands. I don't know that there's a future that's not in shit that we developed in the 1930s and 1940s in the United States, you know, like the Howey test. But anyway, so listen, this this next story, we're going to see if it's relevant. Stocks rally as Powell sees progress on inflation. So obviously, this is a week in review. Yesterday was one of the bigger days we've had, certainly in the crypto market, not Bitcoin necessarily, but anyone who's been holding altcoins and stuff, you probably saw like a 10, 15% type day in your portfolio. Obviously, leading stocks and, you know, led by stocks and the macro.

We know that crypto is a high beta asset. Stocks are going to get stocks go up two or three percent. We get a six, seven percent move. But yeah, I mean, Powell started to say those words that we were kind of hoping for. Hoping for if you like Bitcoin, that is. All right. We got the 0.25 rate that we all expected. Everybody knew that was coming. We talked about it on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, that is. All right. We got the 0.25, a rate that we all expected. Everybody knew

that was coming. We talked about it on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, of course. But his tone, a little softer than we thought. He said the process, the exact quote is here somewhere. I don't want to misquote him. Disinflation process has started, right? Basically saying we're winning the fight against inflation. Maybe we get a couple more small rate hikes. Did not say they're going to end the hikes, but I think we just get a series of point two fives now and things start to wind down. But that could actually change now, you know, if people don't lose their jobs. Take a look at the SPY, which is how I like actively trade it. That's the weekly. Let's take a look at the daily. I mean, closed yesterday at 416, open today at 411, moving on the open. Not as bad as I would

have expected, actually. And as you can see, SPY getting the golden cross right there. We're talking about the Bitcoin golden cross, of course, which we'll get to in a few minutes. But SPY has gotten that golden cross already, which we'll talk about it, but not my favorite indicator. Dow Jones daily had already gotten the golden cross and still holding that 50 MA. Not really. I thought the market was going to be getting rocked today, to be quite honest. Coinbase jumps nearly 24% after federal securities suit dismissed. Now you guys know that I could be a professional scuba diver at this point, figuring out how long my oxygen tank will hold and how deep I can possibly go into the ocean

with my Coinbase bags. Because I started buying, the first buy is 320 small, but I bought all the way down to 40 bucks. Right. And I'm almost almost back to my cost basis, which is like the low hundred dollars right now. But a 24 percent day, the perfect storm, because we know when Bitcoin goes up, Coinbase goes up, of course. Right. But also the nonsensical suit, the lawsuit that was happening, the class action that said that Coinbase was knowingly selling unregistered securities was dismissed by a federal judge. You love to see it, right? The judge ruled that the plaintiffs had failed to establish their claims and that Coinbase's marketing efforts did not constitute solicitation. Eat a fat one, class action sewers, right? Coinbase just wants to list

assets that we can trade. What's the problem? I don't understand. But a huge move from Coinbase. Let's see right here. This is, listen, this is since May. We all know, listen, if we zoom out, we all know how horrid this looks, right? Oh, oh. Guys, I'm on a tiny screen here, right? But yeah, I bought that first day after it pumped. I was like, I'm going to buy the bottom of the first day. And it was like $315. I was a genius. But anyways, we all know that it dropped here.

It was ranging. And guys, when it flipped back $40, I said, listen, I think the target's $116. We flipped the range back to support. Should be heading back to the top of that range. And look, that gap up right above the range EQ, maybe you get a retest of 69 bucks and then we should be heading up to $160. I stand by that. And when we get there, I will have fun staying less poor. That would be right about a break even for me. It would be amazing. Fiboswani, I have no idea what

you're saying genius about, so I'm going to assume that you are talking about me. Scott, you're looking better on coin. Still underwater. Yeah, I'm still underwater, dude. Have you been listening? Throw me in the water in the Persian Gulf right out there. Strap some cement blocks to my legs and drop me in. Drop me in. So underwater. Bitcoin S&P 500 close in on bullish golden cross signal. Well, I already told you the golden cross happened on SBY, which is the actual tradable asset.

I find it weird when we talk about SPX, which you can't trade, the S&P, you know, golden cross technical indicators. In the past, Bitcoin's big rallies have started with a golden cross, but not all golden crosses have led to a big rally. So you're saying, in other words, that technical indicators don't work all the time and sometimes don't work and we don't really know. Is that what we're getting at here? Yes, that's what we're getting at. Let's take a look at Bitcoin. There it is, guys. Listen, the daily coming for that golden cross. It's the 50 MA about to cross up the 200 MA. As you know, I was very concerned about the bearish divergence, but we have printed hidden bullish divergence. You can see nice elbow there on RSI. So I'm less concerned and we're now basically out of overbought. I don't love that

candle right there. Listen, I still think we should get a retrace. It doesn't mean that we will, but golden cross incoming. But like these stories, it's the topic of my, it's the topic of my stream. So listen, I guess maybe I'm getting click baited with it, but take a, if you care about golden crosses, right? Bigger timeframes, get more weight. Let's take a look at the weekly. Oh, that's a death cross incoming on the weekly. Dead. It's over. Pack it in. No, it's not over. It's the weekly chart. The reason we're going to get a death cross is because price has been going down consistently for over since 69,000. Of course, you're going to eventually get a death cross. Do you really think that this death cross at this point on a weekly chart or a golden cross on a daily chart is telling you what's going to happen or is an indication of what has already happened? What do you think? What do you think?

What do you think? I would look at the comments, but I only have one screen and I'm looking at the charts. I can't see your comments, but I know what you think. You agree. Lagging indicator, right? But either way, whether golden cross, death cross, golden shower, I don't know, man. You do have a lot of resistance here with the 200 MA, the 50 MA, and of course, 25,212. Now, what really matters here is that line of 25,212. Why? You guys follow me. You read the newsletter, right?

High, low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low. That is bearish market structure. Now, low, lower, high, lower, low, lower, high, lower, low, lower, high, lower, low. That is bearish market structure. Now, how, pray tell, would we break bearish market structure? By breaking twenty five thousand two hundred and twelve, because that was the last lower high. If we get above that line, the bear case from a market structure perspective, I'm not talking about macro. I'm talking about technical analysis. It's over, dead, done. Bury it. We're not there yet. 25 to 12 would be a higher high in the end of bearish technical analysis. That said, we could get a wick right above it, close down below bearish SFP. It's all over. We die. But let's take a look at the SPX. Kind of the same thing. Golden cross happening right now. As we speak, it's happening. Guys, it's all over. We die, right? But let's take a look at the SPX. Kind of the same thing. Golden cross happening right now. As we speak, it's happening.

Guys, it's literally happening. It's happening as a result of today. There it is. Remains to be seen. But as you know, guys, we've beat this to death. But the line on SPX, it's broken, right? I mean, one, two, three, four, kind of five-ish touches, and then a break. Market is looking pretty decent.

I know that when I pushed my laptop, I had to raise it up on a towel. It's kind of moving. Guys touches and then a break. Market is looking pretty decent. I know that when I pushed my laptop, I had to raise it up on a towel. It's kind of moving. Guys, this is a low production. If I brought Ran up here, he'll be like, where are your 17 cameras and 19 mics? And like, I could go downstairs and grab like 20 of the biggest guests

in the history of crypto podcasts and streams. But here I am on my AirPods with a fucking webcam. That's how we roll, guys. That's how we roll. Sorry. It's just how we roll. Didn't we, Scott Melker, didn't we technically break the last lower high? I don't think so. Because this was not a lower high. You'll be talking about this. That's just a line, the red line, because that was a high. But there was no lower low after this high. You need a lower low to confirm the last lower high. So the next lower low was here, making this resistance, but not a lower high. Bitcoin could be in the later stages of the bear market. On-chain data suggests this guy right here whose face is talking into the screen with his computer in the background. He's saying some things that are really important.

I don't know. Some analysts say that while overall market sentiment cannot be called bullish just yet, the recent price non-chain data suggests that Bitcoin will be in the later stages of the bear market. I won't bore you with the details, but there's a whole lot of indicators, a whole lot of signals, a whole lot of things that have happened in the past that say the bottom is in. We've been talking about that forever. Listen, I believe the bottom was in in June and then we got SBF'd, like we've been Gensler'd in the past, right? We got SBF'd, that's a verb, something he did to us, and we got a lower low. But to reinforce my theory, we quickly retraced all that price

action and got higher within two months from the entire FTX saga. So yes, I do believe that the bottom is in and a lot of these indicators would line up with that. And of course, Bitcoin price could reach 45K by Christmas, Christmas, Matrixport. Yeah, and Santa's real. Christmas, we're talking about Christmas, right? When Bitcoin's performance is positive in January, the rally tends to continue through the end of the year. The report said this. They are right here. There's been six years that Bitcoin has rallied in January. This was the second largest rally in history in January after 2013. Five of those six times, Bitcoin has gone up on an average of 245% more in the year. I think 45, actually, I think 45,000 is conservative. That's nothing. Bitcoin could double by next month if it really wanted to. We don't need to wait for Christmas.

We don't need that for a Christmas gift. But I think, honestly, that all of us would be happy in the context of macro, certainly, to see 45K Bitcoin grab Christmas. What do you guys think? Take some guesses. What do you think the price will be? Huh? What do you guys think the price will be by then?

Craig Wright stance, but leaning forward. Yeah, this is the Craig Wright. We've done this before in the past. You know, Sly Fernandez is an OG here when I fun of him. Fiboswani says 35K by end of April. I dig that. 35K, 36, 33, 35, 36, 250. Tyler, my man. 41, 50, 30. Yeah. Max Kaiser says 22 and play. Fibula Swanee says 58. I like that. I like that. And guys, listen,

I got one final story. Uh, then I'm going to drink, drink, drinks. When we're done. So I wanted to, this story doesn't really matter to you. I just wanted to share this with you because maybe you're feeling bad about your losses and, uh, you know, you're not thrilled're feeling bad about your losses and you're not thrilled that the market has gone down. You've gotten crushed. Well, the second richest man in the world as of last year at $147 billion, he lost $57 billion in like a week. His business has lost $108 billion in a week and he personally lost like $57 billion.

He was accused of fraud to inflate revenue and stock prices, and he backed out of a huge $2.4 billion share sale at the last minute. And now people are going after the Indian government for their close ties to this guy. So I just want you to know that when you think you're having a bad week, this guy is having a worse week. Are you where it is time to drink? Oh, well, yes, it's really weird. It's six fifty four p.m. here right now. And I never stream in the evening. It's very strange for me not to be streaming like first thing in the morning, you know, all because of a tweet said, says Sly for dad is. Yeah, there have been a lot of jokes about tweet threads since I've been here and some amazing things. Tyler says thought alcohol. All because of a tweet thread.

Where is it? Thought alcohol was illegal. Not in Dubai. Yeah. Yeah. Anyways, guys, thank you for showing up. I'm going to do it again Monday. We're going to be just like this. Then I'm going to fly home. So I'll be off on Tuesday because it takes like 400 hours to travel. Simon says I look great. This camera, I think, makes me look super skinny and have weird hair. I'm going to be honest, but I dig it though. Dig it. Humbled. But man, I will say in all honesty, to be in a place like this with people like this who have randomly gotten the invite

just a couple weeks ago, pretty amazing. Every time I come to something like this, it sort of reinvigorates my spirit. It inspires me to continue to show up and do more because you get to really see what's being built and you forget about the price.

You know, Jared says, show the hotel view. It's dark. It's nighttime now. It's nighttime. Somebody just asked, you drink. I thought you were on the sober train. No, I just don't drink much. And I intermittent fast. So my drinking ends by like, you know, nowish. I have a couple of drinks and then I fast for the next 16 hours. So, yeah, I don't really. Pretty good day drinker. That's all I got. Anyways, that's it.

I guess it's morning for you guys. Oh, guys, sponsored by PrimeXBT and show up on Wednesdays. We're going to keep bringing Dirk back because you guys love it. He's fucking awesome from PrimeXBT. He's amazing. Quick question. Scott, you brought your shibmit too, though, right? Yeah, and I tried to give it to one of the

to his excellency, whatever his name, and he didn't like it. No, I didn't bring my shibmit. I don't travel with my shibmit. Guys, that's all I've got. Thank you for showing up. I will see you on Monday. Oh, now I gotta get your comment off the screen, Sly. Can't do the thing without the thing.

Love you guys. Appreciate you. Peace. Let's go.