The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Has Never Been This Bullish – How Long Will It Last? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: July 21, 2025

Trump just green-lit stablecoins, Bitcoin funds scored a record $4.4 B inflow, and Strategy’s stash tops 600K BTC. Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish unpack why this could be crypto’s... most bullish week ever on Macro Monday. Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE WOLF PACK - FREE Telegram group where I share daily updates on everything I'm watching and chat directly with all of you. 👉https://t.me/WolfOfAllStreet_bot ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 The setup for Bitcoin has arguably never been this bullish with Bitcoin Treasury companies buying Bitcoin at an astounding rate following the lead of Mr. Michael Saylor, who now owns over 600,000 Bitcoin for MicroStrategy. We also have DJT, Donald Trump's company amassing $2 billion in Bitcoin out of their $3 billion in available cash. I think it's clear to say we have a marriage here between what's happening with institutions and the United States and Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:00:29 How long can this last? Are these actually top signals? We're going to break that down. And of course, everything happening in the macro. It's Macro Monday after all. Let's go. Without further ado, we're gonna bring on Mike, Dave and James to get the show started. Mike, we're gonna start with the morning meeting, but man, it's hard to talk about much other than Bitcoin and crypto right now, but we should still frame it
Starting point is 00:01:07 with what's happening with the back row. Yes, that's good, because it is a summer market, not a lot going on in terms of, Stuart Hall, our senior economist who works around a warm point out the, obviously the inflation number is a little bit better expected last week, but monthly core is running 2.3%.
Starting point is 00:01:27 It's too hot for the Fed. He pointed out retail sales surprised the upside, but there's been downward revisions and tariff price increases were a big part of the recent uptick. Personal spending growth is running below 1%, which is quite weak. Doesn't really see that improving. That's big of a problem. Inventories of new homes is very high, and he expects at the Fed meeting this week, Fed Waller is going to dissent.
Starting point is 00:01:50 The key thing is we'll see if any of the other members dissent with him. Gina Martin Adams pointed out S&P 500 earnings have been good, but not the price results. The Ford forecast is only being revised upward for tech. Most are vulnerable. She pointed out that US, I think I mentioned this last week, US valued at 55% other global equities, almost the highest ever, still quite high. And she pointed out a lot of risks in US stocks. Ira Jersey, our chief interest rate strategist, pointed out that curve steepening is likely to continue. Fed versus Trump, that's a good sign for, or Trump versus Fed, for a curve to continue
Starting point is 00:02:34 steepening. Our FX strategist, Surly Bulleball, pointed out that the ECB meeting this week might be a dovish hold, expects two to three more cuts are in store, which is going to be a problem for the Euro. It may be good for the dollar as we get those yield differentiations, differentials widening. I pointed out, I dug into crude oil a little bit, just pointing out the season on the crude oil market. It's a bear market. I don't see what gets above 80 and it it's probably heading below 50. Most notably, crude oil, if the stock market drops. I was in the grain belt, corn belt last week,
Starting point is 00:03:13 just massive supply, it's a wonderful thing. Weather's good, should see more pressure there. Copper's been the outlier. I mean, it's pushed up on tariffs. Question how long that's gonna last. It's only US copper around 460, I'm sorry, 560. In Europe, it's pushed up on tariffs. Question how long that's going to last. It's only U.S. copper around 460. I'm sorry, 560. In Europe, it's trading a buck below that.
Starting point is 00:03:29 It's a risk. And gold is still the main commodity that's going up. I'm pushing 3,400 an ounce this morning. To me, it's a bit of an indicator that gold is not really buying into this U.S. stock market or Bitcoin rally. It's still outperforming certainly this year. And to make gold go lower, we've got to have that stock market to keep going up.
Starting point is 00:03:52 And then there's a risk that as we get towards the more volatile part of the year that we get a little correction. And I just point out some of the ratios, the gold crude oil ratio at 50. If we end the year there, that's 15 barrels of crude for one ounce of gold. That would be the highest year end ever. The highest two records in the past was around 39, and that was in 2019 or 2020 and 1934. So pretty unusual.
Starting point is 00:04:16 And then I just point out that Bitcoin, the gold ratio hovering around 35, Dave loves this one, but it's still below that peak from 2021 in that used to lead beta, and it's been lagging for a while. So I'm sticking with gold, and I pointed out that it's not a good indication that the rock this year, the first year of Donald Trump's administration is actually beating well ahead of stocks and still beating Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:04:42 Back to you. So I just have to jump on that one thing because it's, I keep making the point the reason that I've been calling for 300,000 Bitcoin is because that would match the euphoria from 2021. Okay. Honestly, that feels very conservative right now. Now, why do I say that? I say that because in 2021, we hit much higher levels of Bitcoin versus gold and the adoption of Bitcoin is at least five to six times higher. That's really it because if you look at it, the people who are adopting Bitcoin, the people who are buying Bitcoin, not the ones who are selling it, the ones who are buying it, for the most part, think Bitcoin will get to somewhere within,
Starting point is 00:05:26 it depends on the range, 75% to 90% of gold's price, of gold's market cap, which would make the ratio a hell of a lot higher. So the fact that since 2021, we're sitting here in the same range, tells you we haven't even gotten close to euphoria side, part of this market, given where adoption is.
Starting point is 00:05:46 And we could debate whether or not adoption is real. I mean, okay, we have the Secretary of Treasury of the United States effectively declaring himself a Bitcoiner without using the word Bitcoin, you know, in the Walter Bloomberg point about the Fed argument this morning. And that's definitely something we have to talk about. We have the president and his family of the United States basically saying they're Bitcoiners. You know, we have the head of the largest asset manager in the world saying he's a Bitcoiner. So yeah, you know, but none of that was true in 2021. And yet here we are. Now, that is a really
Starting point is 00:06:20 important, simple ratio to look at. And that's the that's that's the core of an investment thesis. Is that a grading thesis? No. Bitcoin is stuck in a range. It's still stuck in a range, burbling where it is. And we're clearly, it's almost a classic alt season and we'll see how long it lasts. Yeah, I was just going to say, I don't want to interrupt as well, show the chart because it's stuck in a range, but this is Bitcoin dominance. And in past bullish cycles for crypto, not just Bitcoin, this is what happened. Bitcoin hits a new tall all time high. Bitcoin goes sideways a few percent off the all time high and all coins go nuts. And this is the largest
Starting point is 00:06:54 drop in Bitcoin dominance I've seen we I think we've seen in a week in literally years. So well, but let's put a bow on this one for Mike, because and every time Mike uses the word beta, I cringe, but this is beta. There's no question about it. The beta of the S&P of Bitcoin, vis-a-vis the S&P and Bitcoin versus that stuff, that thesis is deader than, well, it's deader than what you find inside sarcophagi You know, it's just there is no frigging beta from Bitcoin to the S&P if anything, it's been less volatile than most of the mag-7 but
Starting point is 00:07:32 the real beta in our market that we cover here is crypto versus Bitcoin and crypto versus tech stocks and that's very very real and So and you're seeing that now. And that that's the cycle. And as I said before, it's notoriously unstable, it changes, but it's undeniably. Now, this isn't, you know, this basically shows something, another thing that Mike says that has the kernel of truth to it, which is, it's not that there's 2 million competitors to
Starting point is 00:08:02 Bitcoin. But there's no question that within the crypto ecosystem, that allcoins, I don't like the word compete, but at the end of the day, it's still money. People are taking some money off the table in Bitcoin and putting some into alt's looking for higher beta. And is that a long-term competition? I don't know. But what do you think James? The reality is, I think one of the really good point here and to kind of turn it on its head a little bit is we have not seen retail euphoria in Bitcoin yet. We haven't and you know that because Google searches, the headlines, people talking about it. I haven't heard people talking about it
Starting point is 00:08:38 in grocery stores or at the gym. It's just not hearing about it. And anybody in the comments, please let me know if you think you've heard euphoria because I have not, I don't see it. And one of the important things about this and what you're talking about with the beta to Bitcoin, with the altcoins is that, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:56 you would think that, well, Bitcoin is a gateway drug to the altcoins, but that's not really the case. The case is, is like Mike points out, one thing you do point out astutely, Mike, is that Bitcoin has tens of thousands of competitors as an entry point for retail investors, because they don't know the difference.
Starting point is 00:09:14 They really do not know the difference between Bitcoin and all the other garbage. And so they're going in and saying, well, Bitcoin's $110,000, $120,000. I'm not buying that. It's over. I need to buy something that's 50 cents or 12 cents or $3 because that's gonna get me juice because maybe that'll become $100,000
Starting point is 00:09:33 and then I'll become rich. And that's literally the mentality of it. I mean, I've been speaking with friends and family for years about this stuff and they still, it's difficult to understand unless you really dig in and go down the rabbit hole. And if you've done a good job of the people around you, they do understand it. But you can see how difficult that hurdle is
Starting point is 00:09:56 if they're not doing the work themselves, and that's just reality. So what we have seen is we've seen OGs selling and monetizing their HODL strategy, which they've been doing for many of them for over a decade. And so here you are, you've got how many coins came this weekend? 80,000 from one seller? Was that the number, Scott? Yeah, it was 80,000 tokens. He sent them to Galaxy. There was two weeks of conjecture as to who it was. A lot of people
Starting point is 00:10:29 thought it was actually Adam back sending for this SPAC. It wasn't a lot of people still saying Roger Veer. But yes, somebody literally unlocked 10 wallets, 8 wallets with 10,000 coins each sent them to Galaxy without any test transactions and sold them. And here we are still at 118,000. And so, you know, we, that person may have other wallets that we don't know about, you know, and it is understandable that somebody wants to take it and go buy houses or cars or whatever they want to do with it and say, I'm done. I'm going to redistribute this wealth in another way. And so, you know, I think that's the way that we're going to take it and go buy houses or cars or whatever they want to do with it and say, I'm done, I'm going to redistribute this wealth in another way.
Starting point is 00:11:10 So that's not really surprising. But the reality is we haven't seen that retail craziness yet. And that's why what we're seeing in the activity in Altcoins in my mind, it's kind of an indication of that. I think you make a great point in having been here for roughly 10 years, okay, nine years. My first cycle when I came in, the only way to access altcoins was to buy Bitcoin. So you bought Bitcoin on Gemini or Coinbase,
Starting point is 00:11:41 then you sent your Bitcoin to Bittrex because you were in the United States, Binance didn't exist yet, and you swapped your Bitcoin for Ethereum or XRP or whatever the new hot thing was. Nobody knew what those were. You had to be very crypto native or at least getting the rumor,
Starting point is 00:11:56 but everybody's gateway back then was Bitcoin, 100% because there was no way to access the rest of the market. There were no stable coin pairs. You couldn't buy them. That changed entirely in the 2021 cycle when people started trading alt coins in USDT. And you'll remember almost everybody who came into crypto came through either buying Doge or an NFT, not through Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:12:20 And that has remained the case James to your point, I think now. So I think there's been a wild bifurcation of the market that didn't exist in the first eight or nine years that Bitcoin existed, that now is there. But a lot of people are still stuck in the Bitcoin gateway mentality. I think there's more of a chance that people find Bitcoin through buying other things and realizing how dumb they are, than they find dumb things by buying Bitcoin. At this point. I agree. And that's clearly what we're looking for here. And that's where, Mike, I think the only point that I,
Starting point is 00:12:55 when you point this stuff out, what I differ on you on is clearly is that Bitcoin does not react to the altcoins. It's the other way around. is clearly is that Bitcoin does not react to the altcoins. It's the other way around, you know? And so the data- I would say at this point, yeah, I would almost make the argument as I think through it, that the ETH altcoin comparison now
Starting point is 00:13:19 is probably more accurate than Mike's Bitcoin to all other altcoin strategy. I think if you're trading altcoins right now, you're trying to beat ETH because it's going up. So you have to be concerned with whether ETH because a lot of them are competitors directly to Ethereum. I just think there's Bitcoin and everything else. But I mean, Mike, I don't know your thoughts, but that's how I view it now. Well, to me, let's focus on the big picture macro. And I stick with the premise I had at the beginning of the year that the best for Bitcoin and cryptos have been priced in. You
Starting point is 00:13:51 typically don't want to buy an asset when the masses love it, which is what Dave points out. I get it. It's great. You want to buy asset when Michael Saylor discovered 2020, Bitcoin was at 10 grand. Now it's above 100. President loves it. I get it. They jumped on board to help them get elected. But you look at the actual performance this year, it sucks. I'm sorry. Risk adjusted. This year, I get it. It's a point in time, but it is the first year of a significant new administration. Bitcoin's up 26%. Gold's up 29%. Sticking with the rock. And unfortunately, I hate to say it, but it's keep beating. But that's an environment with the S&P 500 up about 8%, which is the historically annual gain. You got to have that. That to me, it's the key thing for the whole crypto space. Bitcoin is just a little bit different. Obviously, it's the first, but then we
Starting point is 00:14:33 do point out there is about 19 million now. Call them what you want, but there is that many. Unlimited supply. Just look at it as a commodity guy. Sure, there's competition. But the point is this year, if you've been allocating the the Bitcoin you have to realize that Past performance is not indicative of future volatility and bitcoins reach near the lowest ever versus the gold and versus SMB 500 Why because it's in the main space in mainstream once you got into ETFs. Yeah, the mainstream now So just I'll finish with this I think as long as you can assume the stock market is gonna go up the end of this Let's look at the rest of this year. Let's say we're in December, end of the year, we're doing macro Mondays.
Starting point is 00:15:08 If the stock market's up say 10, 20%, yeah, Bitcoin and alt should be up. What if it's up only two to 3% to me, that's what you're doing here. If you're buying Bitcoin now, you're buying leveraged stocks and its performance is showing just that. I don't see a big difference so far. Yeah. The difference is people are looking at what it used to do in the past and you can get Dogecoin, it's worth 40 billion, but you can buy that at fractions on the dollar.
Starting point is 00:15:29 Which is why I would say that the four-year cycle is kind of dead. I think that the significance here, Mike, is yeah, you can't, past performance is not indicative of future results, especially with something like Bitcoin, which has only had a few of these cycles. You know, it's a very small data set. And the difference here is that you have, you now have institutions and sovereigns who are wading into this market,
Starting point is 00:16:00 and that changes it entirely. So it's very difficult to know exactly how this is going to play out. One thing we do know is that Bitcoin has been very closely correlated to the expansion of the money supply and liquidity in particular. So, and we know that it lags it a little bit. And the reality of the fiat world is we have these
Starting point is 00:16:24 vicious expansion and contraction cycles in in liquidity and debt. And so well, debt just keeps expanding ad nauseum, but the liquidity around it is it it can be violent and some of these contractions. And so we will still get volatility in Bitcoin. And I still I think we will get up and down cycles. It's just I don't think they're going to be correlated directly with halvings. And probably not directly correlated to elections unless we start getting socialists elected around the world, which is possible as, as we were kind of joking about before the show even started in Manhattan or in New York City. But, you know, I mean, there will be cycles, there will be expansions and contractions
Starting point is 00:17:17 of liquidity and credit. And I do believe that Bitcoin will follow that. And why is that? Because it is literally the opposite of fiat. And so if you want to protect your money, you buy gold or Bitcoin. I mean, there's just really, you can buy real estate but there's a whole lot more, you know,
Starting point is 00:17:37 there's a handful of headaches that go along with real estate and they're extraordinarily sensitive. So, you know, I do believe that we you're right. There's that there the future is you can't be predicted by the past. I agree with that. And especially because of Bitcoin's name, nascent nature and and it's changing dynamics. And and it's going to be very different this next four years, I believe.
Starting point is 00:18:07 I just want to talk about really briefly before you jump in Mike, the setup, because Bitcoin has never been this bullish, right? And we've had it repeated here and Matt Hogan said it, you know, on a risk adjusted basis, this is probably the safest time to buy Bitcoin. Doesn't mean there's necessarily the most upside, but just digging into why price is going up.
Starting point is 00:18:25 I mean, it's pretty simple. A I'm just going to cook through a few stories. So we get them out of the way. We got the stable coin legislation. We know that market clarity is on its way. Charles Schwab plans to launch Bitcoin ether spot trading CEO says, and said very vocally, they're going to directly attempt to compete with Coinbase. Trump media, 2 billion of their three
Starting point is 00:18:46 billion in liquid holdings is now in Bitcoin. Michael Saylor buys 6,220 more Bitcoin. Crypto investment products see record 4.4 billion in weekly inflows. Jack Dorsey's Block, which owns Bitcoin, set to enter the S&P 500. Peter, we will save that one. And then of course, the title somewhat coming from Brandon Lutnick, Howard Lutnick's son, pushing Cantor to go all in on crypto. Spack says, I want to be sitting at the heart of crypto.
Starting point is 00:19:14 I don't think there's ever been a better time to be pro digital assets than right now. I know that's a lot. And I know that when, Mike, I know that when you're in markets, those can be glaring spidey sense, top signals happening. But to me, the fact is right now there's just a hell of a lot more buyers than sellers. Well, before Mike jumps in, I want to repeat something from
Starting point is 00:19:36 the from the 1998 through 2000. 100% when those IPOs when you've had a certain, when the cycle is there and the investment banks are using IPO's as currency allocations of those stocks, that's the Spidey Sense top. The Spidey Sense top isn't people filing for the beginning and one IPO. I mean, this feels much more like 1996. Circle feels more like the Netscape moment from 96 than it does the pets.com moment from 2000. And this is the hill I will die on
Starting point is 00:20:14 rhetorically because I've seen this before. So it's funny with Bitcoin treasury companies, people are so scarred in the crypto world that they're looking for the top signal to be terrified to get the hell out. I'm coming around, by the way. What do you say? I'm coming around even. No, I'm just saying that's what happens. Markets are funny that way.
Starting point is 00:20:36 Everybody is terrified in the beginning. You have to climb a wall of worry. We haven't had it. But yeah, BitGo, bullish, all the things you're talking about. Hell, I mean, I'm not going to lie. I mean, I'm the second largest shareholder in a crypto company that would be in the Russell 2000 were we a public company. So clearly, and I'm looking at this saying this is good. Someone should figure this out and figure out how to monetize it. That's true. That's what every single person in the crypto sphere is going to look at. But why does this matter?
Starting point is 00:21:10 I'm sorry, Mike. You'll get to talk, but this is an important point because so many crypto tokens that people are used to trading are complete vapor bullshit. When you're in equity with real earnings, it's different. I had an argument on Crypto Town Hall last week. You might remember it. Someone talked about Pump.Fun. They're all jazz saying how great it was. It's real earnings. And I asked this bull, I said, listen,
Starting point is 00:21:32 dude, what percentage of those earnings do you get by owning the token? What's the economics? I don't know. I'm like, what the fuck? What do you mean you don't know? You're buying a financial asset without any clue what your economic rights are. That's bullshit. And frankly, people are going to say the same thing.
Starting point is 00:21:54 Now, Michael say the entire crypto sphere is that way. I do not. I think quite a few crypto assets are going to have economic models that will create supply and demand, Bitcoin being the most obvious. But why the equities matter is because the equities are going to massively outperform and the people in crypto aren't stupid. And so those governance tokens are going to quickly turn into economic tokens. And what does all this mean? Well, this means you have to start hiring armies of lawyers to figure out securities versus not. So what's the other thing that happened last week? Well, gee, we had a much larger Democrat, you know, join over in the clarity act. Because what is going to happen, and this is with 100% certainty now, you're going to get a market structure bill. Paul Atkins and the SEC and Jamie, you know, Selway, who runs Trading in Markets, are going to be full on writing rules for digital asset securities that allow Coinbase, you know, Selway who runs trading and markets are going to be full on writing rules for digital asset securities that allow Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, etc. to compete in that market without without getting rid of them. That is going to happen. You're going to see the ability for US customers to be able to buy these things to eliminate
Starting point is 00:23:01 the risk to people. That is certain. Now it might not be until 2027, but it's going to happen. And so investors are smart, and they're going to start looking at this stuff. So what you will start to see is this trend. I know this is a big rant for a Monday morning, but we saw this all last week. And to, you know, when Mike starts talking about 2 million competitors, my thought is maybe there's 50 that have real value. And what's that 1,900,000, you know, you get the, you get the, you get the joke that are complete fluff that are going to fall away to nothing or be, you know,
Starting point is 00:23:34 memes trading around and who knows what they'll be. But I think it's really important to make to distinguish. I'm sorry, Mike, for jumping in front of you, but you can frame it with a, your rants are priceless. I'm not only, I learned from them you, but you can frame it with A. Your rants are priceless. And not only do I learn from them, we all learn, but our audience does. So thank you. And also it's a thing I learned day one
Starting point is 00:23:51 starting in the business of late 80s. If I just, I always have to, I gotta be contrary. I gotta be against consensus and point out different things. All right, so I know to add no value to clients, to my trading, to investing, particularly in this environment. So first I wanna touch base a little bit
Starting point is 00:24:05 with James said about liquidity. Don't underestimate what's happening to liquidity. The number one source for liquidity on a global basis, bar none, the biggest in almost history is US stock market going up. If we just drop that 10, 11, maybe 12% or so, that's the liquidity thing. You might see massive pumping of liquidity
Starting point is 00:24:23 from a prime, a prime pump or like the government, like what's happening in China right now. But that's the only thing that matters for liquidity when they get to these levels. We're at that unique stage in history. So I like to point out as far as money supply in China right now, current money supply is around $46 trillion. It's double the U S they have to do that. They have to pump the system liquidity just to support, to lift out the massive deflation from the stock market. We saw obviously bonds a little bit this year, but 20 years unchanged, certainly from housing, which is what we've seen in Japan a while ago.
Starting point is 00:24:54 So that's what's happening. The key lessons I like to point out is you always get pretty significant deflation from inflation now, which is the question of when. China is happening, the rest of the world is happening. And then I like to point out what Scott said. Everything Scott said is classic selling when they're yelling kind of stuff. I mean, I love Matt Hogan. Matt Hogan and our friends, but he's selling a product. He used to sell products too, I get it. He's, you know, and obviously he's making money
Starting point is 00:25:18 with that product people are buying and he goes up. So just remember what's happening and what people are doing. And then I just take out performance. This is what I've done with the stock market for a while when you see the rock beating stocks And all you see on cnbc is nothing about a i-driven stock market. That's a problem It still is a problem and it's still beating stocks. It's happening with bitcoin now for a while I'm just pointing out facts of performance you get a much better performance this year with a much lower
Starting point is 00:25:42 Vialtel the acid if you would stay with it and still I think it's gonna be kicking by the rest of the year. Now if I'm wrong, come December, yeah I gotta stop out and move on. But that's still the case this year. Bitcoin's so great. I get it. Why is it not beating gold? I'll stick with gold and that's the point is when you hear people doing the lamps, you know, look at me. I made money doing this and you can too. It's just a classic case. I remember one key example was in commodities when the whole world says, oh, you got to buy commodities. They diversify your portfolio. This was 20 years ago. Rowan Gert was the facts and fantasies and that put in a bit of a peak for decades. It's just the way things work. Remember
Starting point is 00:26:23 the housing market, it wasn't supposed to go down after 2006. It did. It's the widely red and red. I hear from everybody now how you have to buy Bitcoin. That's great. I love it. That's why my spidey contrarian sense comes out and says, yeah, when people, when Trump administration hated the first, the first administration, that was the time to buy. And now that they love it, well, good news is as long as Trump administration is successful and there's no bumps in the road, cryptos will be okay, as long as stock market's going up. Again, though, Mike, we haven't seen retail euphoria in Bitcoin. We're picking out headlines because we're paying attention to them.
Starting point is 00:26:57 We are really paying attention to the game theory that's going on at the corporate and now sovereign level. So I just shared a chart here, Scott, and this is Bitcoin over gold. So what time period do you wanna pick out here, Mike? Just pick out the time period. You can see clearly that Bitcoin is just eating gold alive. And so if we just look at 2025, sure, but Bitcoin, look at
Starting point is 00:27:32 where Bitcoin ran before 2025 against gold, from the election forward. And then it had- Just a line from the middle. What would a chartist call the trend line? What's the trend line from the middle? What's the trend? What would a chartist call the trend line? Yeah, the trend line.
Starting point is 00:27:44 We'd do the trend line. That is a bull market. Now I agree with that. But it's been a bull market for a very long time. Do you want me to go all the way back? Because if I go all the way back to 2009, it gets ridiculous. But just look at where it is, you know. So I know it's a classic, the best techno signal ever.
Starting point is 00:28:02 You have to buy it. It went up, you have to buy it because it's going gonna go up. Just point out that high we made in 2021 was on the back of a 100 year event, the biggest money pumping history in COVID. Yes, we should have pumped anybody to go to the show. Right, okay. We're still at that same level. My point is, but beta has gone up to record highs
Starting point is 00:28:19 and continues to record highs. That's weakness, that shows the verge of weakness. My point is, as long as this talk right now we switch the point is that chart used to lead beta now it's lagging. Okay, yes, it's a point of thing but the point is the beta I just keep keep thinking you have to point this out the stock market's up 7% this year bitcoins up the the risk adjusted amount goes up a lot more as long as stock market keep going up that chart will go up that's the point. Okay, we might reach that inflection. that chart will go up. That's the point. We might have reached that inflection.
Starting point is 00:28:46 I disagree on that. And here's why I disagree. Do you believe that the money supply is going to expand or contract contract between now and 10 years from now? As long as of course. Well, we know the answer to that. But remember, I just pointed out what's happening in China. It's doubled in the US, but the stock market's gone down. That's the point is we've potentially, do you believe that history is, it's different this time that you'll get to 2.2 times GDP in the stock market, it's not gonna matter. From the future you're gonna say,
Starting point is 00:29:13 well, gosh, that was just on the way to three times GDP. No, but I think that the, I think the difference between you and me is that, I don't think we've learned our lesson. I think that we are a terminal patient that is hooked up to a series of drugs and those drugs have to do with liquidating expansion of money supply. And we cannot stop it.
Starting point is 00:29:36 So my answer is, I believe that GDP is going to catch up to the stock market before the stock market falls apart to collapse, to mean revert, as you say, back to GDP levels. I believe that we're going to continue to expand the money supply and continue to expand liquidity to have those metrics come more into line. And it may be both, maybe we'll have a little bit of a, you know of a pullback, but it's not gonna be a 20, 30% pullback in the stock market in my mind. And if it is, it's going to be momentary because they will flood the market with a print.
Starting point is 00:30:13 And that's just reality. I don't think, it's not about whether or not we've learned the lesson. It's about the fact that we have no incentives to do the right thing from the, from the White House all the way through every single chamber of Congress, every, every single committee, and every single individual legislator only cares about one thing. And we've said this before, they care about getting elected. They don't care about their people. We see that because of the things they do and say, you know. You think that Elizabeth Warren cares about the people? No. She cares about getting reelected, you
Starting point is 00:30:53 know. And so, and she's obviously owned by big banks, or else she wouldn't do the things she's doing. And so, you know, the, it's, it's not about them learning the lesson. It's about them not being able to take away those drugs because the patient will die. And that patient is the US Treasury. And the US Treasury can't die or the whole world collapses financially, the entire world. And so the whole point of stable coins is not to get banking access to individuals,
Starting point is 00:31:20 it's not to allow the people to have access to more yield. It's to enable the banks to offer a way for the treasury to get more treasuries out to any nook and cranny they can stuff them into across the entire world. That's all they care about. Can I riff off of two things here? So one, I want to take us in any direction and talk about what the sent
Starting point is 00:31:53 and the administration have been saying. But the point that you keep making Mike about and it's not different this time, et cetera. Bitcoin is, you guys are tired of me talking about an option but the fact is Bitcoin is evolving. It is still a baby. It is still worth a fraction of what it would be if it grows up.
Starting point is 00:32:14 When it grows up, it is pari-pissu with gold. Gold going up. Or 10 times the size of gold in 15 years versus gold being used as money for thousands of years. That's right, but the point being that as gold rises, that's bullish for Bitcoin. Full stop. You just have to ask yourself the question. If you're a Bitcoin bull, do you want to see gold go up or down? The answer is up. Now, do we think that over time, just like the chart James put up, that Bitcoin will eat more and more of it? Eventually, yes, I do
Starting point is 00:32:43 think that is true. But it is a long time thing. There are people out there until the boomers in every country are all dead until I am literally not able to talk anymore. There are people who will hold on to their gold as yellow rocks as their store of value forever. That is not something that happens immediately. So people in the Bitcoin world, oh, Bitcoin is going to leave gold in the dust in the next two years. They're out of their fucking minds. This is a, this is, we're talking generations, we're talking
Starting point is 00:33:11 generations of generations of people who believe gold is a store of value for holding on to and maintaining purchasing power parity. And it's done a great job with that. It's done a horrible job of being the value standard for the entire financial economy. Don't forget Dave, it's US centric mentality. You know gold is store value across these regions that are oppressive. How about India? It's the largest store of value in India, which is the world's largest growing economy. I mean it's not just there. But the point here is, is the Bitcoin gold ratio is really a question of, and I keep saying it, does Bitcoin live or die? Does it succeed or fail? We're not at that point yet, but it certainly feels
Starting point is 00:33:55 like there's more likelihood of success. And that's why we talk about that. But every argument you use for the shiny rock is applicable to people who are younger than the four of us as they look at storing value and understanding. So that's thing number one. But thing two, it is so important to look at what's happening with the Fed right now. You know, you have the Secretary of Treasury who was an avowed Bitcoiner before he took the job. He gets the joke.
Starting point is 00:34:24 This is the most powerful man in the economy and he gets the job. He gets the joke. This is the most powerful man in the economy, and he gets the joke. He knows that the only way out is to grow and pump nominal GDP as fast as humanly fucking possible. At the same time, you push as much inflation into financial assets, including treasuries, as you can vis-a-vis consumer assets or consumers. This is not great. This will create more wealth inequality, but it may very well be the only way out. And that is why they're pairing this with populist policies. The Democrats and the media that support them are so disingenuous, it's beyond belief. I mean, I'm not fully Republican-pilled here, but let's face it, what are you seeing?
Starting point is 00:35:09 The tax bill that just passed, the only differences were for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime up to 12,000, 500, and 25,000 on tips, things that are to try to improve the standard of living for Trump voters, all the quote, you know, giving stuff to billionaires, bullshit. That's just continuing what we already had, lest they derail nominal GDP. And so, you know, this administration is trying to walk a dance.
Starting point is 00:35:38 And it's really important that they've been doing it to try to pump nominal GDP without costing them votes by increasing wealth inequality. Understand that's what has to happen. So if you think that's what they're going to do, and by the way, the Democrats, if they manage to win, are gonna realize that they need to do the same thing because they have, this has been bipartisan. Right now they're doing it for political points,
Starting point is 00:35:59 but as James puts it, if you wanna get elected, you don't cause a recession or a depression. You just don't do it. And so we have a world where for at least the next three years and a half, we have an administration that wants to pump GDP, pump financial assets, notably treasuries among them. And in doing so, try to unleash productivity so that consumer inflation won't be as bad. That's what they want to do. Now whether they'll succeed or not I don't know, but if you want to ask yourself what's the official policy, that's what we saw. So that's what the budget bill was. Recisions will go after some small pieces,
Starting point is 00:36:38 but they're not going to be able to really cut spending. They have to grow their way out. So where does this leave us with the Federal Reserve? Well, the Fed is an independent agency. That's what they say. What it really is, is a group of private bankers who have control of the economy that lean Democrat, and it's a war. And it's a war where they just gave ammo to the opposition. By spending, you know, trying to spend two and a half billion dollars on an office building. I don't care if it has asbestos. You could literally bomb it and build a new one for half that price. You could build, we build football stadiums for a billion and a half, right? You know, it's, it's, it's unconscionable and they are going to eat, that is going to be the thing they're going to use. And they're going to use it relentlessly until they can get the political acumen
Starting point is 00:37:26 to start auditing the Fed. And when they audit the Fed and you start finding out how much private bankers make money because of their coziness with the Fed, when you start looking at all the receipts Caitlin Long has had, a lot's gonna happen. If you don't realize that a fundamental reshaping of our economic policy is underway, you're
Starting point is 00:37:46 not paying attention. Now, I think that to me is unbelievably bullish for Bitcoin. I'm not saying it's necessarily all going to be good. It won't be. There's going to be lots of bumps along the way. But it is we are going to have a fundamentally reshaped economic policy here. You take this one to the bank. If there's any alpha in what I'm saying this morning, if I'm right, invest accordingly. I want to show you guys something while we're
Starting point is 00:38:09 discussing this because in the midst of this, obviously, our favorite topic of conversation is treasury companies. We had the announcement this morning, Pantera Capital backed Ether Machine to go public via merger with 400,000 ETH on its balance sheet for treasury strategy. Bang, 400,000 ETH on its balance sheet for treasury strategy, bang, launched today, just like that. Look at that chart. Now, the question is, when you look at these, how could a company that's dead, Dynamics, have this many people to sell on this much volume
Starting point is 00:38:37 on the day it launches? It's curious, curious. Don't know how we can figure that out, but if anybody's wondering how people are making a lot of money, this is all season. This is all season. Right, but, but understand the the backdrop here. But Mike, I'd really like to hear your comments on this, because I know, you know, you think we have an independent Fed, which I
Starting point is 00:38:56 think is complete nonsense. I mean, the rate cut last year was about it was the smoking gun, as far as I'm concerned, in terms of politics, but it's private. The Federal Reserve Chairman is nominally not by the chairman, but the Board of Governors, it's a private organization. And the markets like the fact that it's independent. Sure, they do.
Starting point is 00:39:16 And so that's why I think the other stories this morning out are Trump isn't gonna fire him because he's listening to aides, namely Scott Bissette, telling him, don't do anything precipitous. Let this all play out. So I think it's very important, Dave, what you said, is putting Trump and Powell and the Fed in the same statement as gold.
Starting point is 00:39:37 My first thought is Bitcoin. I start with gold. Anytime I hear Trump push back on this traditional form of separation of the executive branch and the Fed, at least in theory, I think, all right, well, if you're going to push back on what's really got the US exceptionalism, the US premium and asset price is the highest in history, good luck. It's like good luck without a stake with gold. And so remember what's happening. And let's remember the facts of performance. Cryptos and Bitcoin are risk on asset. Gold is a risk off asset. And the fact that gold is beating
Starting point is 00:40:11 cryptos, certainly one more Galaxy Crypto index one way up about the same as S&P 500 this year. That sucks. That's bad performance. I got to finish this point. But you keep me making how great it is everybody's buying. We pointed out last year was a watershed year in crypto. We got that. Now, it's just kind of, I think, potentially, yeah, we're making record highs. But all that other stuff is kicking in. Remember, it's July. So to me, it's very important to look at what's happening and what markets
Starting point is 00:40:40 might be telling us, not what the sell side people is going to tell people are going to be buying more of this asset. Just be very careful. It's telling us, gold is telling us there's something wrong with all this bullishness. And the key thing is, one thing we also have to remember is the last president who got elected with the stock market this expensive was Herbert Hoover.
Starting point is 00:40:59 It's just, let's remember the facts of what I understand. Everybody knows what the Trump administration wants, but how much can they do to make things more expensive when they're already doing a major cutoff on what's really got the US stock market expensive? And that was earnings, partly because they could offshore and buy and bring in stuff cheap and adding tax to that via tariffs.
Starting point is 00:41:20 That might be a hurtful for earnings. Now it's obviously not happening yet, but the bottom line you have to, I think in this standpoint, I can't even have a view on cryptos or gold or crude or copper anymore without having to view in the stock market first. It's got to go up first. Mike, I guess, so I have two questions historically. So how many times have we seen gold perform exceptionally well when stocks are actually still up. Wouldn't we anticipate, pardon my ignorance, but wouldn't we anticipate if gold is on the historic run that stock should
Starting point is 00:41:50 actually be suffering? Also in the Herbert Hoover days, I guess is my next question, how much QE and money printing did we have? Well, that's a key point is, and I want to mention that to James, we will get money printing when risk assets go down. And that's my point, when risk assets go down, which so far has been wonderful. The risk is- What you're seeing, Mike, is that you're seeing a collective around the White House trying to push for liquidity before we have that drawdown because of midterm elections coming up, right?
Starting point is 00:42:27 Got it. Yeah, in the meantime, why is gold beating that whole crypto market and certainly beating Bitcoin? That's my point. Yes, they're trying to do it. We all get that. Everybody in the market, it's a no-no. We can talk about it.
Starting point is 00:42:39 I mean, it's a no-no. The market's how much can they do it? That's my point. If you look at the actual performance of markets the fact that gold is doing this and even bond Can you know yields are down 30 basis points on the year? There's something to kicking in like my our Thomas pointed out that you know actual consumer spending is just Very recessionary 1% it's nothing. How are you gonna fix that right now now it's transition. So yeah, I get it. The midterms, of course. But key thing for midterms is you want low energy prices, that's happening. Low bond yields. And by the way, it's a stock market, corrects 10%. It's
Starting point is 00:43:13 much more likely going to get that. And we know 80% of stocks are owned by the top percent of the population who do not vote for Mr. Trump. It says 55% of the population which are wage earners and just got a cut on the taxes on tips and Social Security and overtime. Yeah those people more concerned I think if you get those yields lower they can refinance mortgages and you get the price of gasoline lower sure I'll vote for Trump but the stock market for them doesn't matter as much. But if you take out the MAG-7 from that stock market for them doesn't matter as much. All right, but if you take out the MAG-7 from that stock market calculation, it's a completely different world.
Starting point is 00:43:50 You know, so, and that is an important thing. Yeah, I know most people own those things because most people own ETFs through their retirement funds, 401ks, IRAs and all that stuff. But the reality is the vast majority of companies are not overpriced, you know, not to that stuff. But the reality is the vast majority of companies are not overpriced, not to that level. It's the mag-7s that are driving all of it, and that's reality.
Starting point is 00:44:11 And the second thing is that, I mean, we can pick and choose, again, what time frame you want to compare gold and Bitcoin, but the reality is Bitcoin made a massive run prior to gold even taking off. And so I've been waiting for gold. I've been advising people gold. I own gold and waiting for, waiting for, waiting for it. And finally, you know, it finally got a lift this year. And so, but I've owned gold long before I ever owned Bitcoin. And now my preference is clearly Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:44:49 It's not even close. But that's just and that's me. But because I believe that what you're saying, I agree. Here's the problem, Mike, and this is why we have a hard time arguing with you is that I agree with 98% of what you're saying. I just disagree with a few key points that are critical. And that's where we differ. And, and, but there's no learning from this. And I just believe that we're not going to wait for, we're not going to wait for the stock market to crash. It could, on
Starting point is 00:45:18 an event, you could have a black swan, and that's always, you know, a risk. I mean, like we've talked about before, we've had, we had 1987, we had 1998, 2000, you know, tech bubble, you had the 2001, you know, 911, you had 2008, you had 2020, I mean, you have a hundred year event every few years. So to not expect there to be a black swan is ignorant. You know, we should expect something, but on the backside of that, I think it's gonna be a V recovery and ridiculous amount of printing. Like Larry Lepard likes to say the big print
Starting point is 00:45:59 and he wrote all about it because there is no way to stop this. There's just not possible. Okay, so last week's obviously big story was will fed will Trump fire Powell or not right or can Trump fire Powell? Did he write a letter? Did he not write a letter? Okay, we I don't think we need to unpack that. But I think it's fair to say that even if he doesn't fire Powell, which I don't believe
Starting point is 00:46:22 for one second that he's going to, Powell is going to be gone next year. And whoever Trump does put in is going to print the hell out of money, right? So they're gonna definitely throw gasoline on this fire, whether it's today or next year. Mike, I assume we all agree with that in theory, or at least that's what they want to do, correct? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:41 It works exactly. Scott, can I push back a little bit about the fire part? People keep making the mistake of assuming that consumer inflation, while correlated, is causally related to asset inflation. It is not. It is absolutely not. We've seen this for 40 years. CPI is very sensitive to two things
Starting point is 00:47:10 that have absolutely nothing to do with money printing. It is sensitive to energy cost, which Mike points out all the time, and Mike could easily end up being right-ish. I think 50 may be tough with the amount of, with the denominator of dollars going up, but energy prices, we have, it is, technology has improved. It is way cheaper to extract it and regulations are coming down at the same time. So energy is not going to be feeding into consumer prices as long as we don't get a more war in the Middle East. So that is very important. Second, productivity
Starting point is 00:47:48 with AI and everything that is going on in the world to assume that we are not going to get another burst of another hold back on consumer inflation at the same time we're inflating the money supply is also delusional. So yeah, you may see consumer inflation hanging around 3% and asset inflation going back way above trend again. There is nothing in the world stopping it when you cut interest rates. This notion that you allow people to refinance their homes and all of a sudden that's going to stimulate aggregate demand and that there's no slack in the productive side of our economy is just,
Starting point is 00:48:27 I mean, it's been demonstrably wrong for 40 years, yet people keep assuming it. And the Fed's models that I, the fact that they have 20,000 employees and maybe 10 of them have common sense is insane. I mean, honestly, I could hire, I could probably have taught a college level economics class,
Starting point is 00:48:45 taken the graduates after a couple of years and staff the economics departments of the Fed and come out with economic models that were at least as accurate. Frankly, I'm not sure monkeys throwing darts at dark boards aren't as accurate as the Fed has been. But for them to have missed for 40 years that aggregate demand is only one input into inflation is
Starting point is 00:49:06 Beyond insane and and so yeah, I'm pretty pissed off at the Fed. I think the Fed should be gone I think an audit a real audit by a real organization would basically say these guys are all basically holes and filling things I just want to say like the the president firing the Fed chair because he doesn't like his policy is very different than the old good old Bitcoin like abolished the Fed because no, no, no, no. I've been between hundreds of years, but but you would.
Starting point is 00:49:36 But that's my point, Scott. You know, the Treasury Secretary also, Scott told him, don't do it. Let's get political wins to audit these guys and let the Congress go to work and let Democrats die on the Hill of defending it. They're not going to, by the way, Elizabeth Warren might, I mean, she won't die because she just got reelected. But you know, is there not, the Democrats are not going to die on that, that Hill. They are, they are doing this smart for a change, right?
Starting point is 00:50:04 They're letting the papers go at it. They're letting the talk shows go at it. They're doing this smart for a change, right? They're letting the papers go at it, they're letting the talk shows go at it, they're letting it build, build, build, but the momentum to starting to understand what the Federal Reserve does and invalidating it is what's happening. These things don't play out over days. They don't even play over weeks. We're talking months here. Mark my words, by the midterms, there will be momentum to, at a bare minimum, audit or investigate what the hell's going on in that building in that organization. And people will start to learn that it's a private company. Now, why this matters is it means that the people at the Fed who want to keep their jobs are going to start realizing they're going to need to play ball sooner rather than later. But I do think that it's entirely arguable that
Starting point is 00:50:46 it's not throwing gas on a fire, that it's a fire of financialization. Yeah, that I think we all agree. The fire is already the fire is already raging. People are starting to realize that this whole the whole, you know, all the information coming out about this $2.5 billion renovation of a building is just the tip of the spear. You know, I wrote about this a few weeks ago. The operating budget for the Fed last year was $10 billion, $ have 21,000 people that work for the Fed. What 21,000 people what on earth do we need 21,000 people for to manipulate money? And how much money those banks make by getting a favorable interest rate free of risk from
Starting point is 00:51:48 the United States government simply to hold the money. Right. And at the same time, the Fed has run up a $240 billion bill, a quarter of a trillion dollar bill that it's got to pay back the Treasury before it starts, you know, giving its profits to them. I mean, so we're, the Fed is creating a larger deficit. It used to help the deficit. Now it's creating a larger deficit. This is a major, major problem, and people are waking up to it. And, you know, the White House is waking up, and they're putting pressure on them about it. And so that's what Besant is doing. Because he wants, he wants to be able to, you know, have his yield curve control in order to, like Dave said, deflate away this bond problem before it gets, gets completely out
Starting point is 00:52:40 of control. It is already raging. This fire is raging. The spending at the Fed is raging. The ridiculous number of employees they have, it's raging. And they're, they're starting to figure it out. And so in the Fed, yeah, it's big, Bitcoiners love that. But I think it extends far beyond Bitcoiners. And it's going to go mainstream this year, in my opinion. and it's going to go mainstream this year, in my opinion. Gold, by the way, loves it too. Let's be really clear, that's the thing. I mean, it's literally the same trade. It's just that one has an order of magnitude
Starting point is 00:53:16 more upside than the other, but it's the same trade. Yeah. And whether we're right or wrong or not, time will tell, but our belief is it's the same trade. And the point here, and this is why, from a macro point of view, this is Macro Monday, the macro situation in a world without a central bank cabal controlling everything is very different. It's not necessarily better.
Starting point is 00:53:39 I think it is better, but there's going to be bumps and bruises along the way. This is not going to be smooth. This is going to be bumpy, rough, political. There's a lot that's going to happen. Yeah, it's going to be vicious. It's going to, you're going to have a lot of volatility. And Mike, I appreciate that you're sitting at Bloomberg. And there's, if I were you, there's very little you could really say about this subject, because it is a touchy subject with mainstream media, and I get it. But the reality is, the Fed is a problem. It is a massive problem. It's only getting worse, and people are waking up to it. Hopefully they wake up to it fully this year. Well, one thing we, I think we can appreciate from the Trump administration, they're at least attempting to purge a lot of those
Starting point is 00:54:24 bureaucratic excesses. I mean, we needed that and hopefully it will continue. Will it work? Well, it's the best thing I think sometimes you just cut off a lot of stuff and if it's that important, you replenish it later. But what I want to point out, one thing you pointed out earlier is I've always viewed owning gold without Bitcoin in that space would be inconsistent in ignoring what's happening in the world going digital. But there's time to overweight the rock,
Starting point is 00:54:51 the low volatility risk off asset, and there's times to overweight the crypto, the high volatility risk on asset. And the fact that this year and a risk on year that Bitcoin's still underperforming gold, to me, those are the signals I've been looking for. I'm worried about that we've reached this year and a risk on year that Bitcoin's still underperforming going to me those are the signals I've been looking for I'm worried about that we've reached near the end game of this high volatile speculative digital asset. Now I have to point out my outlook. My outlook initially was years ago once we had launch of widely disseminated ETFs in the US that would be a bit of a peak in cryptos. I still stick with that. I've been early, can say wrong, but I look at this space needs excess. So for me, for now, the way I'm looking for
Starting point is 00:55:30 a bit of a bottom is when we have a bit of a purge of the excesses. Now we're seeing massive speculative excesses right now. You can disagree with it all you want in Bitcoin, but looking at $40 billion valuation of Dogecoin, we will look back from that from history and blame me if I'm wrong, is that was about $40 billion too high. We need a purge in this space. We need to find out that you can't just put Bitcoin on your balance sheet and then your stock goes up two or three times. It's at that stage I think now.
Starting point is 00:55:59 Again, everything's fine. It's July, stock market's doing fine. Let's think of how things are gonna be towards the end of year. To me, the indications are you should stick with the risk off assets. Here's my mentality around it. We believe as Bitcoiners that Bitcoin is not a risk on asset.
Starting point is 00:56:20 And we believe that eventually the world figures that out. And eventually that it overtakes gold as the premier store of value asset of the entire world, the entire global financial system. That's the bet. And we're willing to ride out the volatility between now and then, because we believe that that is the end game. And what may happen before that, and I hope it doesn't happen, is that we have a violent collapse of the entire system because of the stupidity that we have from the people who are manipulating the fiat currencies. And if that happens, good luck to everybody. Gold will go to 70,000, you know, but Bitcoin will eat up most of the financial
Starting point is 00:57:06 markets because you're going to find people are going to need somewhere to go with their capital in order to preserve it without hyperinflation across the entire world. I hope it does not we do not get the hyper Bitcoin ization and in a violent move, that would be terrible. I think that would be catastrophic for the whole world. And it would make a lot of people poor and it would be an ugly World to live in for a while. I don't want that What's that So where are they going in China what you described what we're having in China is a severe deflationary
Starting point is 00:57:38 Normal reaction from merging market that grew too fast We've had one of the biggest bull markets in history has been in the CGBs, Chinese government bond markets, 1.68. That's where they're going in China. In the U.S., wow, we're still buying Bitcoin. I just say good luck. Hopefully we'll be okay with that. Well, me too. That's my point. Where are they going to go? Yeah. It's interesting we're buying Bitcoin in gold, you know? And so let's see. No, I pointed out that. But China is, but you have to understand something about China. I mean, that's a macro people are going in.
Starting point is 00:58:11 So, Mike, you talk about China a lot and for very good reason and there's a lot of important information in what you're saying. But the United States, you know, is different than China in multiple respects. We always talk about creative destruction, but we don't allow it anymore. We allow zombie companies, but it's on a really small scale. China has zombie cities. They literally built enormous amounts of infrastructure with
Starting point is 00:58:44 no utility simply because there was so much money that people built and employed it. We've never done that. I mean, yeah, we get the occasional bridge to nowhere. We get empty shopping malls. You know, we get stuff that we could use more housing. Let's face it. Yeah, we actually are short of housing. China went and just built and built and built. The answer is, it's sort of like, why did the chicken cross the road? Why China build excess cities?
Starting point is 00:59:09 It's because they could. Now they have all this, this, this mal, we call this mal investment in economics, where you, you invest your productive capacity in things that are not necessary because you could, because rates are artificially too low. So of course, what's their cure? Their cure is to cut their rates even lower and inject even more
Starting point is 00:59:27 liquidity into the economy. But it's exactly what, what James, I was talking about the general economist tone for this is pushing on a string. You know, the other analogy is it needs more and more drugs to keep things going. They have no choice, but to either keep pushing or just say, okay, we don't care, and just allow it to collapse and then just dust themselves off and get back up again, as they build their capacity with more STEM engineers and more stuff and more stuff. But the reason why we're not hearing about Chinese tariffs and people are realizing is they're realizing that trying
Starting point is 01:00:02 to put themselves on the wrong foot. And it you know, it's like, if you're in negotiation is like jujitsu, right? You know, what's the what's what is the first statement of jujitsu? Use your opponent's momentum and power against them. Well, that's what's going on here. China built too much productive capacity. And as you would jointly have noted many times, and it's very important, you know, they now have deflation in the consumer side, and inflation on the monetary side, because they have no choice. And that's what's going on. And this too shall pass. But right now, that's what you see. That's one thing we don't generally have in the US we don't I don't think there's a whole lot of, you know, condo building sitting empty. Right?
Starting point is 01:00:41 You know, we don't have that problem. Maybe Miami is going to have we did that in Miami. Yeah, we did't have that problem. Maybe Miami is gonna have- We did that in Miami, yeah. We did it. We did it. We did it three years ago. Yeah, but it just, but it's nothing, it's the scale is different, Scott. It's orders of magnitude more in what they did in China.
Starting point is 01:00:55 And so yes, everything Mike is saying is true. And the question is, is, and you also, well, you haven't said it in this show, you also extol the virtues of our system versus a one man system in China, which is also a big deal. So you're right about that. And so what does all that mean? Not sure, but it seems likely that it means more liquidity coming out of China and more productive capacity coming out of China at the same time, which, oh, by the way, is disinflationary for the rest of the world. Yeah, I know that we're over time.
Starting point is 01:01:26 Yeah, go ahead, go ahead. Go ahead, I mean, it's just that the key thing is we're gonna see major technological competition out of China, as Jeff Booth pointed out, which means earnings. I mean, you have to have tariffs to protect yourself from China. It's not just the US, the whole world now
Starting point is 01:01:42 has to protect themselves from massive deflationary forces come out of China and then being able to do some of what our tech companies do, but maybe cheaper. Yeah, I mean, just circling back on Bitcoin as we conclude, I just still see right now, more demand and supply. I don't know if that's indefinitely, but I find it hard to see announcements like this. I brought this up, Charles Schwab plays large Bitcoin ether spot trading and saying, you know, aiming to attract clients who want to consolidate crypto holdings with their traditional assets. I mean, this is really the Holy grail of any asset classes
Starting point is 01:02:16 that you can go buy your Bitcoin and Ethereum on Charles Schwab and then use it as a part of your entire portfolio to take loans against. I mean, it's just very hard for me not to think that at least we go a bit more higher, a bit higher at some point in this cycle with all this because these people haven't even been able to buy it. I don't know. We'll debate it for another time. But that story just kind of got washed, you
Starting point is 01:02:40 know, because I think it happened on Saturday, but just absolutely incredible what's happening in this market, guys. I love the debate, as always. Really appreciate all of you, Mike. Looking forward to seeing people walking back and forth behind you in the Bloomberg offices soon, but enjoy the rest of your vacation.
Starting point is 01:02:56 Other guys, see you on Monday. Thanks, guys. Let's go.

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