The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin HITS $66K as Trump Clears the Way for the CLARITY Act | Jeff Park

Episode Date: July 21, 2026

Bitcoin climbed to a two-week high as risk appetite returned to global markets, helped by five straight days of Bitcoin ETF inflows, easing geopolitical tensions, and a rebound in technology stocks. We discuss whether this move marks the beginning of a sustainable breakout or just another rally within Bitcoin's broader consolidation. We also break down the biggest development yet for the CLARITY Act after President Trump reportedly agreed to an ethics provision, dramatically improving the odds of comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Hulu original series Furious is coming to Disney Plus, starring Emmy Rossum. Furious follows FBI agent Alice Black on the hunt for a mysterious and calculating serial killer. Both walk their own paths toward justice, and as their lives start to intertwine, the line between right and wrong begins to blur. Don't miss the three-episode premiere of the Hulu original series Furious on July 27th, Only on Hulu on Disney Plus. Bitcoin is trading over $66,000, presumably on news that the White House has provided ethics language and is sending it to Republicans to hopefully get the Clarity Act passed

in the coming weeks before the deadline is up. Obviously, we're out here on location today. We're going to talk about that and everything else with the amazing Jeff Park. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the beautiful North Fork here in Long Island. We are at the Out East Summit here presented by the Thai and lucky enough to have Jeff with us today. Good morning, man. How are you? Nice to be here, Scott. Long time in the making.

Yeah, I know. We woke up for a lot of wind and some potential rain here, but it's a beautiful, beautiful spot out here. So listen, let's start with the market, right, obviously, as I mentioned in the beginning, 56,000. You know, things have been kind of rising slowly, even in the face of some bad news, I would say, you know, people were very concerned about strategy. I think that's kind of out of the market. I mean, just broadly, what do you think? moving the market right now and what do you make of the price action? I think there's a lot of focus on the Clarity Act for sure and the next two weeks is pretty much the gap in which the fulfillment of its dreams have to be realized or not. And as a result, there's a lot of bids towards not just Bitcoin and alt tokens for the

construct of that potential tail outcome, but in crypto equities as well as I've seen it. So some of the term structures across the volatility surfaces of equities that have some acts to the passage of clarity has an upward kink over the next few weeks versus the rest of the year. So there's definitely focus on it. And I think Bitcoin, you know, if you asked me, will Bitcoin trade up or down base in the passage of clarity? That, for me, is a little bit harder to assess than, say, Ethereum or other tokens that have a more direct acts into legislative efforts that touch their revenue model. But I suspect Bitcoin would do well, nonetheless. And I think I think in general, like beyond clarity, people are focused on midterms. And, you know, if you have

the chance to really kind of bring more bipartisan support outside of just the Clarity Act for crypto to evolve much further, I think that would go much longer. So we actually, I think, need to see more movement from the Democrat side in the dialogues that we're seeing. Right now, if you look at the news flows, most of the stories that are coming out or being leaked is strictly from the Republican side. Yeah, I think that's what people are missing in the headline. So, like, obviously we only have Ellie who's here, Eleanor Turin, I think she's here, but we only have her reporting on it, you know, and it's kind of, I've heard from multiple sources that, but it seems like the White House created their own ethics package and is now sending it to select

Republicans, which people are reading as the White House has agreed to ethics, but I think the White House has crafted an ethics proposal that they're comfortable with, which to me is still very doubtful. It says Donald Trump can't make money in crypto. Yes, yes, yes. This has a tinge of some of the dynamics in which Trump has historically navigated coalition building with some exclusionary efforts towards Democrats. And until you see that break through some language come through the other side, I think my instinct is still that it's probably a low, likely outcome. But we'll see. I mean, that's why I think the market is pretty interested over the next two weeks. And we could, as a result, therefore, see like a meaningful squeeze up from unexpected outcomes. So names like

Circle, Robin Hood, tokenization names, like securitize, all these things. things I think are kind of interesting in play. Yeah, it's interesting. I looked at the Hal Sheet last night, so I haven't even checked it this morning. I can't speak. It had pumped marginally, you know, like passed by January 1st. And I think it was 39% and it, you know, off recent lows in the 20s, but it was kind of 36 to 39. But will they vote in Senate? I think spiked to like 80%. Like will we get a vote by August? Right. Whether that means a positive vote or not, that seems like people are actually starting to believe that they might get it to the floor. Maybe that's meaningful. Once again, I mean, now you have Lindsey Graham died, right? So that's

one Republican out, which is kind of a question mark. Mitch McConnell's missing. And you still need at least without that seven Democrats, right? And it just doesn't feel politically palatable right now, but I would love to be proven wrong. And, you know, I got a DM from Patrick Witt that was like, see what I'm working on. So maybe it's, yeah. Yeah, no. And certainly that newsful was also a little bit hard to digest too with departures around the focus groups because you saw also with Paul from Coinbase taking his leave from Coinbase and he's of course been such a stamp supporter for kind of where we are today. And so the timing also felt a little awkward from at least the market participants view that this is kind of the final podium moment and we're seeing some transitions

in the leadership for those that have been most vocal about pushing clarity. So I think all of these kind of mosaics are adding up to a pretty unsure and uncertain outcome. Yeah. So clarity aside, we're going to find out, right? So we can talk about what might happen endlessly. I mean, what else do you think the market's pricing right now? I mean, I think we're, my feeling, you can see it in socials, you can see it in engagement, you can see it in price, just feels like we're in the doldrums of the end of summer. And now a lot of people are sort of hinging on the four-year cycle being a thing again and just hoping that September and October, we start to ramp up and this was all forgettable. Yeah, you know, capital kind of moves in

rotation and I think we've seen lots of different movements in this closed ecosystem. I would say on one hand, there was a ton of activities for the friction markets on the back of the World Cup and of course the NBA. And you may have seen that the open interest in those contracts now that the World Cup has ended has collapsed. So where is that capital going to go next? So there's a little bit of like sequencing, I think, as to where is the fervent appetite for this notion of, you know, the degenerate economy is chasing. To that end, even though the crypto market's been a little bit lackluster from price action and dispersion, where I've found a lot of vibrancy is actually in our U.S. equity stock market. So if you've looked at some of the stats that are coming through by way of measuring, a 99th percentile high in three-month, single-name stock implied volatility in S&P 500 names over the past 15 years. Non-specific to crypto, just S&P 500 broadly. Probably.

Broadly. Single name, implied volatility, all time high in the past 15 years. On top of that, implied correlation of that index is at an all-time low, zeroth percentile in the 15-year duration that we're having this observation window, which means that there's basically incredible dispersion. And it's basically the most right time for fundamental, long, short, alpha-style, stock-picking environment. And so some of, I think, the ability to discover alpha has much.

moved away into that world where for so long after in the past GFC years, like the stock market felt like an index. And now we're really seeing some movement where the index constituents as a whole is showing some meaningful dispersion. What do you make of that? I mean, what does that tell us about the market? Is that a healthy market? Is that an unhealthy market? You know, is it, you know, the bears will say it's a sign of like the end time's coming or something, right? Well, I don't know. I personally think it's a very healthy market because we are having having the ability to vote with our feed and money to prove that there will be winners and losers

and not driven by the hidden forces of global macro, interest setting policies that basically cheapen money to allow asset inflation. So I think actually having losers in the stock market is a very healthy and almost welcome change. So I think some of course is coming from the tremendous volatility on the back of AI themes and people's expectations that there will be losers in the AI themes. Now, whether they will be losers or not, I think will depend on kind of ultimately where the market goes. But the idea is that people are pricing disparate outcomes, which I think for a long time hasn't really been the case with the bid on passive flows on generally being long index. Yeah. Long everything. Interestingly, though, this comes at a time when you would think it could go

the other way because there are such large macro drivers. I mean, there's a war, right? At the beginning, you would kind of see maybe the whole market dumps or goes up. We obviously saw what happened with tariffs, you know, a year ago when we had this massive down in the biggest V recovery in history. But that was everything. Yeah. Right. So now it seems like the market doesn't care about broadly about these macro events anymore. You can literally pick a winner based on wanting to pick that winner or based on a narrative or based on the fundamentals or any metric that comes with that specific company. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And to be fair, there is a lot of focus, nonetheless, on the macro because we are actually seeing some meaningful this location with the Fed curve.

because there is a term structure, right? So there is a bare steepener right now where people are expecting higher for longer that is implying that fiscal dominance is still very much likely in play, and some of those overwhelming effects will also dominate where people expect investor flows to come. So the dollar's done relatively well this year

versus last year, and expectation is that rate differential continues to be pretty attractive, so dollar strength is probably likely to continue. And those things still, I think, serve as an undercurrent for why U.S. equities market as a whole is a valuable asset class for wealth preservation. I suspect also on the frenzy behind the launch of Trump accounts and things like that will continue to put some passive bid into our equities market from a generational perspective as well. In context of all that, how are you viewing crypto-specific equities?

Like, you know, obviously, Sarko had huge moves yesterday, likely on clarity, I would assume sort of on the same announcements. Do you think that there's anything particularly interesting in the crypto equity space? Well, I think the universe of crypto equities has expanded much more beyond what the limited scope of what historically we would have called crypto players, because the reality is the Tratify business and the crypto business is merging. So when you hear traditional firms like Morgan Stanley or even Robin Hood that are not what you would have called typically crypto names come into the lanes of what crypto represents, I think

the universe is far bigger than people expect. In other words, you know, crypto sometimes can pigeonhole itself into the sandbox of being this play thing on defy and on-chain finance. But if you really like reinterpret the other side of that coin, crypto is just a frontier of finance in many ways about unlocking new financial primitives that people can find capital efficiency or solving asset liability mismatches or bringing different kinds of retail distribution. And so all of those constructs are just becoming more viable in the age of hyperfinancialization. If you look at prediction markets as a category, for example, most people don't really think about that as a crypto company in the sense that there isn't a natural like asset or role that crypto necessarily plays into what consumers

want. Now, if you look under the hood, there could be for some companies, but the reality is most people don't care. Crypto just exists kind of in the backdrop. And really, what you're finding out is people are excited about new ways to pursue capital efficiency and investing. And so I think crypto as a category is just increasing. And that's, of course, just on the exchange side of the business. But if you look at the stable coin universe, that space is, you know, augmenting even faster. And the Clarity Act, of course, is a big component of the relevancy for some of the traditional players to find their way to push draft in. I want to circle back to fiscal dominance in a bit.

You talked about prediction markets, obviously, and I think talk about a frontier, right? I think people, A, they don't view them through the proper lens of what's possible with them, but B, I don't think they realize that institutions are probably already looking at them and using them in novel ways that retail isn't when they just bet on how many goals, Spain. Yeah. Now, I think the holy grail of prediction markets always is to bring more flows that are not driven by speculation alone, but truly by the needs of natural hedgers. And so some of the frontier event contracts that they're trying to launch is really meant to

bring in insurance. And whether that creates the effective insurance or causes more dislocation by the frenzy of speculation is unknown. And we won't know until we actually experiment further. But the general signs of there being value and sponsors being able to hedge outcome, and even things like sports is probably. a worthwhile endeavor, even things like weather contracts where people are then correlating that to whether there will be delays on flight departures, on a timely way or not. From the surface, it looks really speculative, but there are truly meaningful billions of dollars of capital that move

behind ensuring these types of risks. And so I think price discovery is genuinely a useful tool. That being said, we'll see where the market participants come for that. Otherwise, I think what prediction markets is unlocking is they're bringing liquidity into a type of outcome that is finite in nature, which is in some ways really good and long for the perspective that I have in which so much of finance is broken today because of this asset liability mismatch across the timeline. So the greatest Ponzi, if you will, of the dollar and the treasury bond market is really because there's a generational theft of pooling forward termed risk. And prediction markets, are basically not termed risks.

It happens and it's over in a timeline that you and I can end a season with. And there's something quite beautiful about just having risk that expires in a termed way where there is no manipulation of time. And in some sense, that's what perps are, right? Perps are a novel way of interpreting swaps without termed duration risk

because you're letting the funding leg float dynamically based on the liveliness of now. And if there's one kind of antigeness, to the to the travails of kind of what's poisonous right now about our fiscal deficit on this termed duration concept. Prohibition markets like stands a bit alone in being totally different to rewrite and underwrite what that risk capital could look like. So you're up you've now moved to terrify right? You're a partner. You're managing risk again. You're very very active. I'd imagine in the market are you already taking for example you know like a calcium you know end of day 68,000 above

below. I have no idea what it is, right? Is that something that you're now taking into account when you're looking at the market? Are prediction markets actively a part of the information that you're utilizing now on a daily basis for your trading? Yeah, so first of all, I should mention that none of the things I'm saying here is investment advice. These are all views of my own. And the reality is like, production markets are information markets. And so everyone should pay attention to some level to figure out what the mosaic theory of price action could look like by paying attention to all these differentials. And the thing that is interesting about production market as a primitive when it comes to

some of these event contracts are their binaries. And so binary options are essentially digital options where the payoff is one or zero based on an event happening or not happening. And binary options have actually existed in traditional finance for a long time. In fact, I started my career at Morgan Stanley as an exotic options trader where the entire business was about pricing binary risks, meaning discontinuous. risk that experiences these kind of jumps and gaps where basically a log normal distribution wouldn't be able to account for a hedging portfolio and that is

structured by building very tight levered call spreads if you imagine a call spread where you have one strike you're long and one strike you're short and you have like a linear path of achieving in the moniness you tighten that as much as possible and eventually you can almost close your eyes and graphically imagine it you tighten it very narrow it becomes a binary option and so what I mean by that is prediction markets are ultimately still priced out of traditional risk. So if you can play in both sides of the world, have an appreciation for these crypto primitives, but understand that a lot of these financial underpinnings have been discovered and stratify for a long time and practiced in its own ways.

There's opportunities, I think, in the merger that is possible today. So let's go back to the fiscal dominance conversation. Everybody's eyes have been on Warsh. Obviously, he's kind of changed the way that the Fed approaches markets know, you know, guidance and very vague, I think, in his commentary, but I think people are still expecting, even if the market's pricing rate hikes and really believes it, I don't believe it. And I think they're thinking that cuts will likely come, but does that matter in a fiscally dominated world? And is it actually important that he and the percent are seeing eye to eye

and kind of working together? Yeah, well, telltale sign of fiscal dominance taking hold is when the Fed policy is looking for monetary loosening as the term structure is steepening because the market is feeling it's not being compensated for the risk. So this is exactly the battle that Kevin Warsh has to now journey upon. But still, like the picture is pretty bleak in one way. So if you look at our federal budget deficit, we're going to hit 40 trillion by the end of this year. I mean, 40 trillion is an astronomical number. Just to put that in perspective, that's $20 billion a day. And that's about $120,000 of debt per Americans. That also is growing. by $200 per day. You and I just sitting here, our debt grows by $200 a day. That's like,

I don't know, a budget for eating that just is happening invisibly behind you. And the question is like what is going to stop that? And generally you look at kind of how much the war in Iran has been costing. It's north of almost, I think, $2 trillion projected. You may have seen that the Pentagon is actually looking for emergency funding that has been at stalemate. And of course, the worst part of this all is the cost of servicing our debt. So one out of every $5 of intake and gross receipts goes out back as interest payment. That is not sustainable. And that, I think, all points to a particular direction of fiscal dominance being in play

that feels almost unavoidable. And then you add, of course, the demographics inversion on top with rising health care costs and general benefits, there really is no other way to imagine solving this problem. So can we grow out of it? Because I mean, listen, in theory, Worc's job isn't the national debt, right? That's why I kind of asked about Treasury working with the Fed. I mean, their mandate is inflation and jobs, right? And that's what you're supposed to be looking at.

But if this debt is going to refinance at 5 or 6% instead of the 3% that it was at, we have an even bigger snowball. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's right. And I'm glad you asked because this is a large part of why the Clarity Act is so important long term for the health of the U.S. economy. There's this misconception that most of our monetary basis, is measured by this M1, M2 liquidity constructs.

But practitioners know that these mechanisms are totally flawed because deposits alone don't paint a picture of what the health of that global leverage or even national leverage could look like. So you have to pay attention to repos, collateral ratios, and general funding stress. And M2 as a construct doesn't capture any of that. But why is this becoming more important?

It's because there is so much leverage in our system for which there has to be a bid for rates and generally dollars. So the thing that can unlock in the future that can help us get out of this is you need more capital intake for probably what is our greatest export, the dollar and US equity markets

and other financial assets that offshore investors want access to. And that's where on-chain tokenization, stable coin access plays a really, really meaningful role because we're unlocking lows that can offset what I described as kind of the generational issue that we're experiencing across time. If you can't expand vertically across time,

well, it's time to expand four horizontally across other countries and take offshore capital onshore. And that's why I think the Clary Act is one of the bullets that people are looking at, and those who are very progressive and forward about health of the U.S. financial system, solving problems through the lens of these conduits that crypto-suit have building. And Bessent understands that. When you hear him talk about stable coins and hyper-dollarization, and you see him get giddy when he freezes Iran.

Indeed, indeed. No, and this is proven time and again, too, in U.S. history, where if you think about the success of the U.S. financial might after World War II, it was really because of the Eurodollar market in which people wanted safe dollar deposits offshore, but they could not access bonds. And so there was a phantom market that was created called Eurodollars. And that what we're saying is there's the Eurodollarization of other U.S. financial assets, too, that I think can be really interesting.

Look at our stock market. It is the greatest in the world. And people want to bet on innovation. and there is ways to attract that capital that I think these rails could unlock that allow us to increase their degrees of freedom on the leverage picture. And most of the world doesn't have access to the U.S. equity market. That's right. I don't think Google will kind of realize that, but it's very much, you know, us and professionals.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you look at some of the semiconductors that are listing here in the U.S. to the format of ADRs, and you see already the value premium trading at multiples, meaning the ADD. E.Rs trade at a premium to the actual local stock market price. And that I think is showing you that there is some kind of bid for these types of things in the other direction as well. So actually just making a global kind of market in general where you can bet on growth, as you pointed out, is where I think capital tends to gravitate towards pursuing. And crypto just unlocks that much more naturally for any investor. And so broadly, it sounds like you're not concerned about

a devastating recession, depression, or bear market in the immediate future. I mean, if there's one thing to take away and there's one TLDR, right now, we are running the deficit at a level as if we are in a recession while simultaneously being at an all-time high employment. So this is very not natural, meaning when we hit a recession in the future, this will be the first time in U.S. history where our percentage of debt to GDP will be 100%. First time in history, when we hit the recession when it comes. And so this is really uncharted territory in some sense. And in that sets, you need creative people and you need creative expansions of policymaking beyond the toolkits of monetary policies, which is why I think there's so much other legislative efforts being put in place to augment monetary policies.

I've been blown away by whoever the Wizard of Oz is back there, pulling the strings and levers and pushing the buttons to keep this thing going. It's been impressive. So I want to talk about, I know we got eight, nine minutes left, radical portfolio theory. Indeed. Because I think you brought a prop. Yes. Yes. Well, that text from you, you know, getting on the dignity. Well, listen, I think the radical portfolio theory is so near and dear to me because in the age of fiscal dominance, what are you to do? And the truth is a lot of folks don't have options beyond what they readily see in their brokerage. But the key is you have to think about flows. And flows means you have to own things that other people can't readily access. And that's why I think Bitcoin was really interesting at the beginning. It was hard to buy Bitcoin. It was risky to buy Bitcoin. And because, it was hard to unlock flows, you were benefiting by being an early participant ahead of flows. Most of trading, if you ask anybody, comes down to being ahead of flows.

And so when you trade assets that are outside the system, as we know it in 6040, that's kind of where the greatest opportunities could be. And so the radical portfolio theory is really enthusing that mission towards alternative asset classes that can hinge upon that. And there's many ways you can think about what alternative assets can look like outside of stocks and bonds. And one of the categories that I love is collectibles. And so, Pokemon cards are a cultural mainstay. It has performed exceptionally well.

I believe it's up 5,000% since 2004, which is 10 times the SMP. I don't know why I ever bought crypto. I could just blast toys. If you bought vintage PSA 10, Charzars and Blastoyces, you would have done well. And of course, you've got to make sure there's numbers that are being truthful about indexing versus single cards, and that goes with any market. But in general, these things have been interesting because it's preceded flows.

And also, there's interesting dynamics on Pokemon cards too, where all cards that are vintage by definition are out of supply, and yet these are companies that continue to print new supplies. So there are new cards also coming online, and there's different kind of supply dynamic. Now, to that point, Pokemon's really interesting, and the reason it's really interesting this year

is because they're celebrating the 30th year anniversary, which is a big deal. And it's a big deal because it's one of those kind of milestones for which people have high expectations. So you get to observe these like mini cycles of micro liquidity even amongst that small pool of capital. Meaning if you want to have capital on the sideline to be able to participate in the launch of the 30th anniversary, well, you got to sell stuff. And so you get to see these microbearable markets and the reason I pay attention to collectibles isn't just because it's fun. I found it to be a really powerful tool in being able to understand liquidity before almost anybody else. Almost always, these markets react much more violently when there's stress in the consumer market

because the people that are collecting these are not very deep in the ability to otherwise relinquish for liquidity if you catch my dream. And so it's actually a market that everyone should pay attention to and one that I would enthused by. Anyway, so in terms of props, look, the Pokemon... We got lucky. I got very lucky. The lore behind these packs, by the way, is... I haven't done this ever before. Show that camera.

But these cards just came out this week. It's their new series. It's called pitch black. Called pitch black, because that's the color of the abyss of your wallet when you open these. How much of the pack cost? So these packs, MSRP are around $5. But actually, if you go online, you'll see most of them trade at 10 to 15. And I got very lucky because as I was waiting for the Jitney here, I stopped by a children's clothing store in the Upper East Side and they happen to have these parts.

So I thought why not? We should open a pack and devalue this right away to negative EV. Yes. You should never open them in theory, right? Yes. For all the people that are watching, in general, the values retain by keeping vintage packs unopened because people love the idea to speculate on agency. And that's why people still like opening packs and find it to be a positive. EV experience, even if it's a negative EV financial outcome.

So if you want, you can do the honor. Is it positive EV if I pull the right one, though? It is. And so there is some chase cards that. Is there like a, you know, I don't know if in Pokemon cards. My kids do it. I'm going to, I got it. You got bad fingers.

You got nifty hands. I got bad fingers. I got it. I just thought I should be doing it in the camera here. You got to do it this way. So you don't bend any corners. That's right. Yeah.

Yeah, you're going to luck, though. All right. We start with a bomb bier. I don't really know. They're all French to me, Bombardier. This one's Bombardier. That's not a good moment for our situation. We got some, honestly, new species I've never known before.

But the rare ones are almost always towards the back. Looks like we got one called Dark Bell. Looks glossy. That seems good. I think that seems pretty good. We got one called Scarmony. Have you seen that one? No, I don't know Scarmony.

And this one looks like, Scarmony. We got this. Fifth Scarmony was a band screen. A spirit bomb. That sounds good. Like, does the number in the corner have any, it's their power,

but it has nothing to do with their value, right? No, no, no. I think they have a marker. Charzards, like three. What is that it? I think that's it. Yeah. Those are the shiny cards.

I don't think it's a good pack. But we had fun. It didn't get as lucky as we thought. So, you know, if you pull the right one, what do you do? Well, I get to see my kid. I teach him a lesson on pristine collateral because you never start too early for that. And otherwise, yeah, you inflate away.

You know, I, like I was, I told you this before, I was a huge baseball collector, baseball card collector in the early 80s, but like 1986 when I got super passionate about it was when they massively overprinted by like 10x what they'd been doing before because of popularity. And I would buy these boxes and wax packs and save them. I saved them for decades. Yeah. I brought them into a store finally and set them in a cellies and they told me that they're

not like worth the paper. Brendan on and I ended up donating what I had spent probably thousands of dollars in uh in uh in money that I had made you know washing cars and stuff in the 80s you know I donated them to the friends of the library in Gainesville Florida so some kids could pop them so well look I think sports heroes are also generational too right because in some sense legends are eternal but many also lose relevance and memory but the nice thing about IP like Pokemon is Pikachu is never going to die yeah yeah Mickey Mouse will be around forever and and hopefully as long as the corporations behind them are able to keep up with their IP value,

they remain nostalgically relevant for many generations. In 86, we were trying to pull Dwight Goodens out of the 1986 tops and a couple of Daryl Strawberries. All right, guys, that's all we got for you today. We're going to be doing a lot of content out here. So look for that. And I'll be back tomorrow with Josh Frank from the tie at 9 a.m. All right, Jeff, man. Thank you.

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