The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Hits First Real Resistance After PUMPING 45% This Quarter | Gary Cardone

Episode Date: September 22, 2026

Bitcoin is holding near $85K as ETF demand surges, with nearly $1 billion flowing into U.S. spot funds in a single day. Meanwhile, X is bringing stock and crypto trading closer to its timeline, while Google, Apple, and even the ECB push deeper into tokenization. Copper is also back near record highs as global supply tightens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bitcoin hit its first real resistance at around $88,000 American dollars after pumping 45% this quarter. Quite the move, many calling for 90 and above right now. We're going to talk about that and everything else that's driving markets and the news today. Of course, we have Andrew and Tillman, but because you guys don't really like them that much, we also brought someone you do like, which is Gary Cardone. You guys don't like me either. It's fine. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Today, it is Dawn here in New York City.

As you can see, look at that view. Look at that wolf. I made that on chat GPT this morning. Not going to lie. I vibe-coded a new studio background. Do the other one. Do the other one. Yeah, look at that.

I'm in the window. All right, I'm going to go ahead and bring on Andrew, Gary, and Tillman. Dude, the AI is amazing. Seriously. I did that this morning. I'm not saying it's that great. But I have Grockbot now, too. I was like, whip up a dollar cost averaging calculator for Bitcoin to show the history of dollar cost average at any point.

And I forgot I did it. And then it sent me a video of it like clicking through and showing me all the things that it does. Yeah. It's going to meaningfully change how we do things and what we do and when we do it and where we do it a year from now. There's going to be a lot, a lot of changes, especially in finance. A lot of changing in finance coming to the guys that put on a suit and tie. every day and, uh, and, and, and, and this show is going to be four rock bots. Yeah. Right. Right. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Gary, what's that, man? What's that, buddy?

How are you doing? How are you? I'm awesome, man. I am awesome. Very smiley today. You seem happy. I think you just froze on us again, though. Sweet. Frozen Gary is, uh, is a killer way to start the show. You know what I mean? With a smile. Okay. So let's, uh, we're going to just dive into some news while Gary unfreezes himself. in the Matrix, stuck. Stop. But Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $9 billion

on Monday. Ninth largest infl over. To be honest, that was nine. Yeah, that's not a surprise. We'll probably see a big number as well come through today. You know, I think

we're going to see big numbers happen for the next couple weeks. The interesting thing about that nearly $1 billion is, you know, not half of or more of it came from i bit only 380 million came from i bit it was it was spread across you know the top five also extremely interesting morgan stanley did 61.7 million that's the biggest inflow they've ever had since inception by double right their biggest number on any given day was

30 million 61.7 um that's a that's a that's a that's a big number now that's all demand from Friday. So that's Friday demand showing up on the books for Monday. So we'll see what happens today based on the big Ibit numbers we can point to and say that's option stuff. You know, option stuff and like it's all on IBI because people are shorting, you know, the future, whatever. But if it's spread out that real, this might be the first time we can go, wow, people really bought a lot of this stuff. Yeah. Yeah, Fidelity had big inflows. Arc actually had big inflows, bit wise, big inflows. And again, Morgan Stanley had the biggest inflow day that they've ever had since they launched their spot Bitcoin ETF. So that's retail demand, right? Like,

that's what jumped out to me is that Morgan Stanley number is absolutely retail demand. That's wealth management retail demand jumping into an asset. So important to note and probably is a harbinger of what the next, let's call it 30 to 90 days look like. Hey, Andrew, Do you think that's public that is asking the investment bankers for Bitcoin, or do you think the investment bankers are saying, hey, you need an allocation? Yeah, it's probably, yeah, it's probably 60, 40. They're asking for it and 40 that they're talking about it. So great question.

I know a lot of Morgan Stanley advisors. I've got a close friend who's won in Columbus, Ohio. and what I know about him and his team, I highly doubt they're going out and saying, hey, everybody, you need to add Bitcoin to your portfolio. I doubt that he's doing that. But I would bet that he's getting it from his clients and saying, yep, yeah, let's do that.

Let's add a small allocation. There's no greater marketing for Bitcoin ETFs than Bitcoin price simply going up and being back to you is for being above $80,000, right? That said, I would say that Morgan Stanley, probably might be skewed slightly more towards advisors because they've recently put their sales team on it since they live. I think you're right. I think 90% of them aren't, but I bet there are some Morgan Stanley advisors now who have gotten the message to go out and sell the thing, which is why Morgan Stanley created an ETF when they're not really in the first place.

I spoke to Amy Oldenberg this summer, who's the head of, you know, crypto or whatever at Morgan Stanley. And she said that was actively going to start happening. But I mean, 40 to 80 is huge. like you said, or 30 to 60, whatever it was, and doubling, but still, you know, that's a 6% of the daily inflows on the Bitcoin. Yeah, yeah, no doubt. But again, at Morgan Stanley, that is as pure retail demand

as we're going to see. Like that is, and again, I mentioned it before, the Morgan Stanley spot Bitcoin ETF has seen zero dollars of outflows. Not a none. zero right so that crowd jumping into that asset that is a that is a stick to it i've made a decision to be at one or two or three percent allocation in my portfolio and i'm not coming off of

it um and you know back at it after the after the summer and you know making allocations we're september 22nd people have probably had their q3 or going into q4 portfolio review And so you're seeing some of this movement, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, just to add to this, and Gary, I just want your kind of general thoughts on the move after this. But the average Bitcoin ETF holder is back above water for the first time since January. The rally this morning has Bitcoin above our estimated ETF cost basis of 81,722 per coin, obviously much higher now. I mean, you see these kind of things all the time with Bitcoin pumps, right?

ETF holders are back in profit. Sailor's way back in profit. You know, he had to go to zero. Now he's a genius again because he's billions of dollars. and profit by me. You know how it all really just like rotates with the price. But Gary, you know, like you and I would talk kind of a lot about Bitcoin price action, sentiment, all these things.

I haven't even talked to you since I think the move up. Were you surprised by the move up? You know, did you anticipate lower still? Do you still anticipate lower? Do you think there's a real move? I mean, how are you just framing this right now? Well, look, you know, when sailors stop selling, I mean, we have a price here that like, sailors not selling.

but not buying. When he started selling, I thought, okay, we might be reaching the end. The Satsuma implosion the other day, like I said months ago, hey, all of these strategy companies have to sell their Bitcoin before we can go anywhere. Like 180 companies, I think four of them maybe keep their position. But you got 600,000 Bitcoin that need to come back. 600 Bitcoin from Satsuma came back in. That's good.

We have a lot of pressure on this market and it's holding here. Now, I was bearish all summer because, quite frankly, I wanted to buy more Bitcoin at 57,000 or below. And the market's going to allow me to talk it down. While Sailor couldn't say anything and, you know, the BMNR guys on his back feet, I mean, everybody's struggling. I'm like, hey, if this market's going to allow X Twitter spaces for me to just pound on it, the worst case is my twin brother buys a lot of Bitcoin. He couldn't have bought otherwise. do we'll figure out how thick this market really is. Is this really a market?

Is it an X market or is it a real market? And I want a real market. I am so tired of the X-spaces Twitter. Point two Bitcoin holders thinking that they control anything here. So to me, this is why I came into this market. I've had to wait eight or nine years. But Wall Street's taking over and it's awesome. It's absolutely awesome.

I have been made fun of on my strategy STRC package. I'd love to take somebody through this. I could have bought $98,000 Bitcoin six to eight, nine months ago. And instead I bought STRC and I've been paid $63,000 a month. Yeah. I've acquired 12 Bitcoin. And I'm still going to be able to move from STRC at 99.5. That's what I paid for it.

As soon as it hits 99.5 or 100, I'm going to have to be able to move to move from STRC at 99. or 100, I'm going to move into cash. I've collected all that money. And if I have to buy $80,000 Bitcoin, this has been an awesome trade for me. Yeah. I've made $750,000 on STRC while I didn't know what the market was doing. I was confused.

And by the way, now about you buying it below par? Yeah. And I bought it. Just buy it in LerC and holding it. Like you didn't buy it at 75 or 80 or 85 where there could have been in their bar. And I bought it in there. was never worried about it. People are like, hey, he's getting liquidated. I'm like, nobody called me from the bank. Nobody cared. They're like, dude, the guy's getting 11.5%

with a really cool tax allocation. So for me, having all these tools and being a Bitcoiner and being able to arbitrage between Wall Street and digital assets, dude, it is the ultimate option tool. And why Bitcoiners wouldn't want Wall Street and although to be able to reach in there and go, hey, I'm going to go grab this. Now, I could have just sat in cash. That would have been horrible. I could have sat in Bitcoin at 95 grand and going all the way to 65. I have some of that, by the way.

I have some of that, right? So to me, Bitcoin's actually maturing. And that, to me, is what has to happen. We have to mature. And, you know, I heard somebody say the other day, hey, 7% of the world is allocated to Bitcoin. There isn't a chance in hell. It's 7%.

It's more like 0.7. Yeah. That's the truth. Okay. The world is allocated to any assets. Right. Right. Right.

Assets, period. I think that's more than 93% of the world that's living paycheck to paycheck. Now, I do think we have a lot of wood to chop. And that's what I would like to talk about. Hey, this thing is not going to go straight up. Okay. Anyone sitting here listening to crypto bros going,

it's going to one thing, 47 in one morning. Dude, relax. Okay, talk to experts and buy Bitcoin at the right price. Don't chase Bitcoin. I love the idea that it's raising the floor of the ranges. You know what I mean? Like, that's kind of how I view it.

And the last one didn't like, it was only lasted four weeks or whatever, that kind of 70s to 80s or, you know, mid 70s to low 80s. Now maybe we'll range from mid 70s to mid, you know, to 90. I don't know. I don't see what's going to make it skyrocket to your point. And that's why I use Arch Public. Whatever, but I can tell you, as everybody knows here, just as evidence, because, Gary, you said what you were doing. I'll tell you what I was doing.

I did buy SDRC at 193, 85, 74, not your same size and now have ridden it because I understand that I'm getting paid a dividend on 100, regardless of when I buy it. So I, you know, and listen, I was literally being accused of being a sailor paid shill. I don't know if people remember this at the bottom. I was defending strategy on math and data, not on, like, personality, just saying, like, you can't use words like, will be liquidated or bankrupt or insolvent when you have $850,000 Bitcoin. And here we are. That was ridiculous, okay?

People saying that, I'm like, I don't even think you believe in Bitcoin. If you think Saylor can go down with 800,000 Bitcoin, you are not, you understand a very different Bitcoin than I did. Yeah, but I just, so I bought a bunch of STRC, but with the bulk of my portfolio, I was just using Arch Public. buying Bitcoin and I don't know, we haven't updated in a long time. I bought Ethan Salana at much smaller amounts as well. I am as of this week, I am way in profit. And not only that, it sold a bunch of them, but I got panicked. You know, it was like, why am I selling Bitcoin?

I want to hold forever because it sold it at like, you know, 80 and then it bought again at 75. Just yesterday, like 88, and I'm sure now if it dips to $85 is going to buy more. But my cost basis actually went down when it started selling about four, three or four thousand more dollars in that process. Because my cost basis was maybe like 83, 84, and now it's like 79 or 80. Yeah. Well, let me jump in. I don't want to get into Arge probably, but that was my strategy. My strategy through this whole dip was just this was it.

I started at the dead top. And here we are still 30% off the highs. and I'm in profit on all of it. Well, and you wanted to spend all of it at 126, which would have, you know, emotion is the enemy of trading. And retail is riddled with emotion. One of the things I'll point out about Gary's journey that I've appreciated is that, you know, he's been managing dry powder as much as anything.

Like I've seen all of his posts go back to when you were selling silver and you were posting about getting rid of, you know, depreciatory assets. your vehicles, like all of the game is about the opportunity cost that you can either be patient to take advantage of or that you're not and you miss the boat on. And Bitcoin rewards patient people with dry powder that have conviction. That's just the bottom line. And that's the opposite of what most people who have been in the space live according to. And Wall Street is the exact opposite. That's all they live according to. It's about wealth preservation. It's about having the dry powder when they need it to make the appropriate move into the asset class.

And that's not typically at the dead bottom. It's typically the middle of the trade that they really want to take because that's the most risk-free trade that you can make with the highest upside. And you're just seeing like an evolution of the markets, to Gary's point, Bitcoin is maturing. What did this summer represent to me? It represented a changing of the guard. We had the cold card hack that literally disrupted the very core, pun intended, of the Bitcoin community.

And I think that, you know, then you extrapolate all of the other headlines that have happened this summer. They all have one common theme attached to them. It's like the people who got us here are not the people to take the lead going forward. And the people who have really focused on integrating this systematically into our financial. system, those are the people that are driving the narrative going forward. And those are the people that understand what yield potential is and what volatility potential is. And they're not so attracted to the long-term bet of the appreciation. What they're attracted to is what Gary got after earlier, which is like depth of liquidity

in the market and how much volatility opportunity presents itself. If you can capture a very volatile market with a lot of depth of liquidity and global structure behind it, there is more yield. potential than there is upside potential. And you don't have to be, you know, a wizard to look through your crystal ball to find it. You're literally just playing the ups and down systematically against the rest of the people who are driven by emotion. And I think that's what we've seen over the last 90 days as much as anything is like the real buyers are stepping in and they're not chasing big green candles. They're actually waiting for the red candles.

They're waiting for the retest. And then they're like, okay, this is a prudent time to allocate capital. And those are not soft, weak hands. Those are like the most diamond hands that exist. They don't ever have to sell. Yeah, a couple of things to add to that. First of all, as per Gary's comments about, you know, ex-insanity associated with sailor.

I think they've called 25 of the last zero sailor liquidations over the past six years. I remember the liquidation, you know, conversation, you know, having to do with sailor at 13K. I remember before at 8K. He was going to get liquidated and it went to 15 and he sold a few and bought back to that. And by the way, dead ass bottom of the market. Yeah. Yeah.

And so, you know, again, conversations on X can be interesting and fill a little bit of time, but they have meaningfully adjusted. Again, Wall Street absolutely has taken over. The other thing, too, based on the. fact that that Bitcoin is a meaningful asset across the financial system now, Bitcoin will outperform broader markets, but it's not going to outperform four to five X to one. It's not going to do that over the next three to five years. It will outperform 1.75 to 1 or 1.95 to 1. And that's really, really meaningful, right? But if you're expecting a four to one, three to one, you know,

200 percent year over the next three years, you need to make a mental adjustment. You know, Black Rock's product coupled with their options, I'm telling you right now, will not allow a 250% year in Bitcoin over the next three years. Well, even just to the truth, you may not like it. but that is the truth. I'm just letting you. Andrew, to your point and to Gary's point earlier, not only will they not allow that,

but they're not going to allow a continuation move to keep going after we've been up 40-something percent in the last two weeks or whatever it is. I mean, you're talking about that is the play. If you missed this last move, it's not time to jump in the boat right now. You just literally saw a move off of the VWOP that is three standard deviations above any move that we've had.

We've seen like a massive amount of volatility. So here's what people typically get trapped into thinking. They go, oh, we're at 85 and the high is 126. That means I'm almost guaranteed to go to 126, and they load the boat right now. What I would argue is that when you have a 40 plus percent move, we are 90 percent more likely to go back down to 75 than we are to go back up to 95. then we already go back up to 95. Like take the same 10,000 range above the current price below and above.

What is the probability that it goes down 10% versus goes up 10% from right here? And it's not an emotional feeling-based question. It's like, what's the probability of a continuation event going from 40% plus in a two-week period to a 50%? How big of an anomaly move would that be? Not saying it couldn't happen. but people don't adjust their risk based upon the existing percentage that we've moved. And that's just a major fallacy in their investment thesis, in my opinion. You're supposed to be placing capital based upon the risk-reward ratio that presents itself at the time of purchase.

The risk-reward ratio is materially changed over the last three days than it was three days ago. So if you are taking the same purchasing power into today's market as you were three days ago, I would call you an unsophisticated investor. That's not what Wall Street does is the point. And that's not what all the big heavyweights are doing now. There's a risk-adjusted curve that they always want to go back to, period. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of reasons to believe that this move is slightly overheated, right? In fact, we were going straight to 90, and we went back to 75, right?

And, you know, that was a reasonable opportunity. I mean, you got fear and greed here is what this can stay here for a very long time. But yeah, we've hit extreme greed for the first time here. You know, people are excited again. The Morgan Stanley advisor's calling. Usually, I haven't looked at open interest, but I'm going to assume that it's piling up big time. That said, I will once again say,

and, you know, Gary, I didn't really get to your opinion, I guess, on the market moving forward. But there has been a very clear sort of regime change here. You know, like the things that you're looking for to confirm are there. So there's kind of like there's the DCA people like us, and especially ones using tools. But if you're trading, there's like two kinds of people who have been playing this market in my mind.

Those, the bottom feeders who were trying to buy at 60, maybe thought it was going lower. But you were like pretty excited. You're like, I'm trying to buy a bottom. And the confirmation people, you know, who are waiting for a higher high or the 50 MA on the weekly or whatever. Well, now we're above everything.

Right here you know, Bitcoin has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages. We all know that. If you take a look at the chart, you can see, you know, that was the higher high right there at 82. maybe the proper way to frame this in my mind is in a bear market you were looking to sell rips now you should be looking to buy dips is that an accurate to your point on i saw a post you made about dca and somebody said hey i'm going to start dca and you're like dude you're missing the whole

point of dcate you need a dca when people are bombings and no no hate i think it was lea halpern's brother you know she's taking kind of a beating he was like oh it's almost time to start dollar cost averaging and then no hate I'm like, we're going to dollar cost average at 90 instead of 60 because we think we know something about the market doesn't make much sense to me. Yeah, it is, it is a, you know, everybody has an opinion on X. And again, I think it's the most prescient point that Gary can make is, is we're there, you know, Scott, you're there. It's a, it's a place and a, you know, sort of a holding court of ideas. But the truth of the matter is is no different than what Micron does, what

Nvidia does, what Tesla does. That's not all happening on X. You're not getting meaningful outcomes based on conversations on X spaces associated with Microsoft stock. That's not what's going on. And we've moved into that space with, you know, with with with with Bitcoin. The other thing too, again, Sailor is this. gargantuan figure in Bitcoin and the community and for all the right reasons. He's done incredible stuff with digital credit. Again, to Gary's point, made a lot of money with that, that did some of

his digital credit products. But outside of the Bitcoin community, you know, I don't know how many money, you know, 2020 talks that Sailor's doing. I don't know how many of those trad, phi, he's the headline speaker at. It was last year. I don't know. It was last year, but this year, right. So. 20.

Yes. So it's, there are big differences. But over time, again, Bitcoin is, you know, will be an asset that more and more people own in the Tradfai world. It's just not where we'd hoped it would be as of right now. now. It will be, but again, it just takes time. I think that's all based upon the lending part of Bitcoin. The narrative behind real estate, you can say all you want about real estate and how it's made so many millions of millionaires in America. It's the backbone. It is. But when you really peel back the onion, the reason why it is is because it's one of the most liquid assets that you can

have upside potential against. You can go to any bank and pull a helock literally the day after you close on a property and they'll give you money against the positive equity. We've systematically made liquidity available attached to real estate. When that can be said for Bitcoin, I think you're going to see more people come in because you're going to be, you're going to see lower offerings. You're going to see rates that are more attractive than any other rate that you can get when the collateral is Bitcoin, period of the end. Why? Well, because it's easier to repossess. If you just stop there, it'll be a cheaper rate. There's a lot of other reasons, too, but just there it's going to be cheaper rate. Well, what does that do? It just attracts people to use it as collateral.

And I think that's really where the breaking point happens for like retail in America is when you can go down to a bank and you can go, I own a Bitcoin and they go, great, we'll give you a preferred rate against a loan attached to it. Send it to this wallet and you'll get the money tomorrow. When we get there, It will be a household name like we've never dreamed it would be. I wholeheartedly agree with that. Okay, one day, the collateral value of Bitcoin will be absolutely the crim de la Crem collateral. Now, if you don't really understand that, then maybe you've been spending too much time with some punks and spaces. Literally, I mean, I have people go, they have 100 Bitcoin.

they're not doing something with them like i don't understand that okay i'm either going to borrow against it or i'm going to lean against it one or the other now the question is can i withstand this is why the STRC product was really cool i'm borrowing from coinbase at seven and a half percent i'm borrowing from my bank at five and a half and i'm getting paid 11 and a half Mm-hmm. Fuck. Yeah. And I've removed the volatility from the underlying commodity.

And by the way, I now have a lot of Bitcoin. It allows me to be more, shall we say, I'm not chasing the redhead anymore. Like before when I came in, I'm like, dude, I got to get 100 Bitcoin. I got to get 200 Bitcoin, you know. And it doesn't matter. Price doesn't matter. Fuck that. That is ridiculous.

Price absolutely matters, man. Your entry price, if I'm buying apartments with my brother, I care about what their entry price is. the exit will be easy if my entry price was correct yep well that's where in any asset that's where your money's made is the entry price right totally and that's what you're doing is so important man because like it's hard to pick these prices well i think it's start well you should start with the notion that you can't i think that's what people get the they start to fool themselves even what you are mentioned earlier about like now's the time to start

DCAing. That tells me you don't even understand what DCAing is because DCAing is predicated on one central thesis. I can't time the market, period. If you can't time the market, then you don't try to time it with your DCA strategy. It doesn't make any sense. And I think systematically, though, it gets very boring. And people have to be honest with themselves. They're not chasing profits. They're chasing ego and they want to be right and they want to make the post no different than we've seen. What was the guy that made $100 million this year and fleets? That was last year. I think it was James Wynn or whatever. James Wynn. Everybody wants to be James Wynn. No one wants to be Warren Buffett. And that's just the nature of like fame and everybody looking at you going, look, he's a genius.

I think we all want that more than we actually want to be wealthy because that's what I see most of the being geared towards. Yeah. Listen, everybody wants to be Scott Melker. Warren Buffett never called me a bitch. James Wind did. Where it is a badge of honor? By the way, interestingly enough,

you know, I think Warren just announced that he's stepping down as the chairman, so he's completely out. The truth of the matter is, I don't know, Warren. And I think Berkshire was up something like 6.6 million percent during his tenure. Now, to be fair, that was over, you know, 50, 60 years, whatever it is. But that's a number. 6.6 million percent is saying something. You know, there's value associated with it.

And listen, Warren Buffett was the king of entries, right? He was absolutely the king of entries. I think Warren, I think he was an vulture, dude. Like a total of a investor. He's not like, they say value. No, dude. This guy's a vulture investor. He wants to buy the bottom.

He's going to squeeze Goldman Sachs winning if he can. And otherwise, he'll just sit around, wait for it. Yeah. Yeah. How much powder do they have on their balance sheet right now? He started spending a little, not him, the new Burscher Hathaway cash. It's trillions. I know it's trillions.

It's a big number. I think 360. Bershire Hathaway cash fell from 397 building. billion to $366.6. Okay. Billions. But they had, I remember what they did. They bought Apple, they bought something.

That's cash though, Andrew. So they have $1,000 worth of buying power. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Two trillions, man. We don't even use it, right? With $266 billion, how much buying power do you have? I think banks might listen.

Even the buying power, think about it, though, that you were measuring the buyer power against $2 trillion as if they're buying assets that don't need the liquidity. To Gary's point, they're vultures. They're waiting for the company who is desperate. I mean, look at the last, look at the $30 billion hedge fund blow up and what happened there. Citadel swept in. They bought the book on pennies on the dollar, and then it immediately rebounded and recovered. He who has the gold makes the rules. And if you get to a position where everyone knows you're strapped for cash, your buying power is really irrelevant at that point. You're a slave to the market, and whoever will give you the money is going to get a pound

of flesh out of you because they know they can. And it happens in the oil and gas space all the time. I grew up in Houston. And literally, there are guys in town where you can point out of them and go, he goes bust at $10 a barrel, period. Like, you know what his production costs are. You know, and people try to drive it down there to get them to puke up their positions and they buy them on the cheap. That's the game.

That Citadel story, that situational awareness guy is back in the market now. It's kind of that news has been out there. I guarantee you. You know that Citadel liquidated that entire position within like two weeks, basically. I guarantee you Citadel is. somehow involved in making sure he's got a little bit extra crash to get back in the market. I guarantee you, right? Because they're like, yeah, go do it again.

And they're like, well, you know, if he does well, we've got a little percentage of this and we'll do well. But if he does the same thing, we get to do the same thing again. Like, I guarantee you that that's part of that trade. Yeah, man, finances, it's endlessly interesting. Like, we can talk about Bitcoin all we want. but markets are man the level of resilience associated with the u.s markets is is just unbelievable just absolutely unbelievable like you know you know Patrick bet david you know 11 days ago oh it's

going to be a bloody Monday i can't believe what's going to happen and we're meaningfully higher from when he sent out that tweet like it's just you know yesterday i think the markets added something like $1.5 trillion, which is, you know, nearly the market cap of Bitcoin in one day, just a one day move. And it's not like it was all over the news, all over the papers, all over, holy cow, this is amazing, the biggest thing ever. No, it was just a day in the markets. It really is extraordinary. But that's why I think perspective and history is so important for us to learn. Like I grew up in a gold bug family. My dad was a gold bug in. since the 80s, like 20% interest rate in the 80s.

Like I heard the whole narrative of Bitcoin before Bitcoin was even invented. The same arguments that all the Bitcoiners made about fiat currency collapsing and that whole crap, they act like they invented that narrative. And they literally just repeated something from 40 years ago that has been the fear cells. To Gary's point earlier is like, buy the dips. You know, fear are the very dips that you're. buying and they're most of the time overshadowing the underlying truth that we have to print more money to keep to stay in power period you have to service future debt with cheaper dollars that is

the way our economy works and so you look at how much money we're going to be printing over the next decade i think that's why you're seeing you know kind of a new price discovery happening across commodities, across Bitcoin, and yet we talk about all these surface things as if the rising tide doesn't float all ships. And rising tide is a 10-foot title wave coming in of trillions of dollars of printed money that no one in the world can convince me is not going to be taken until we don't have more guns than everybody else. And, you know, our U.S. currency, no matter how weak you think it is, show me a better alternative. Show me where the world wants to put money in the form of paper that's more attractive than the U.S. government's form of it right now.

I don't think there is one. I don't think that's going to be disrupted for a long time because we have more consumer. We have the best consumer demand of any country that exists. We have the largest economy of any country that exists. We're on the precipice of the biggest AI boom. We're going to take the lead on all that. Why? Well, because we're the innovators. Like, it doesn't matter about who's making the chips.

It's what you're doing with the chips that matter. And we're the guys that know what to do with the chips. So all this is just telling me, you know, it's just noise. It's like everything's going to be more expensive when we, in 20 years than it is now, period. Everything. And Bitcoin, I think, will catch more of that fever than most other assets because it doesn't have any cost to carry. And you can, there's no, there's no scalable problems. that come with ownership, whereas there's a ton of scalable problems that come with everything else,

everything, except for treasury bills. That's literally it. Tillman, I agree with everything you said except one thing, and it's a big one, which is everything would be more expensive in 20 years. I think that's really wrong. I think everything in the next five to 10 years are going to be extremely cheap. Like, and here are examples. I can get an MBA from MIT today for nothing. That's deflation by every, absolutely every definition. I have access to people like yourselves before. I never had access to you. I don't have to go and stand in a convention for, you know, 30 days to get to the CEO of a company. It's like access is so much easier today than it's ever been. If you have a good story, a good pitch and you articulate, it's impossible

not to get to whoever you want today. Nearly impossible. would agree that there are going to be a lot of things that go down in price. You're right. Services, any technology, any code-based product, anything like that. I agree. But if you talk about scarce, hard assets, I don't think that's, I don't think you're like, there is an thing that's scarce. Well, Bitcoin would be one example, gold, silver, houses, land, all of that. Gold and silver at $4,500 gold, man. They're making 60% margins. An oil producer

selling crude oil at $150 is making a 300% return on a science. Now this is no longer art, dude. This is a big fucking G700 flying over Texas going, take some pictures. Hey, we have 8,000 barrels of oil down there.

Go drill it. This is no longer a guess, man. And prices... It's not, but it still requires so much human labor attached. I agree. I agree. If prices go up, though, the capital pours into those resources in volume, 300% return in oil and gas. Everybody in their mother's going to drill in oil well, right? I mean, only the big guys are going to be able to do it.

To your point about Americanism, how you could short America at this venture right here would be, to me, it's insane. Because if you short America, that means the whole world's in a shit show. And we're the only country to date who hasn't invested in its corporates. everyone we compete with, the sovereign entity invest in their corporates and we've never done it. And I think that's what Trump's going to put on absolute jet fuel. And he's going to force the 401ks, the money market accounts. It's all going to go into new investments. And to short this market to me would be crazy, to short America.

That's what I'm very interesting. Because I've seen all the headlines about Trump wanting to do things like that about reinvesting in our businesses and, you know, nationalizing to some degree. Well, he did it with Intel. He did it with Intel. He's doing it, man. He did it. Yeah, he, you know, he did.

I've never thought about the fact that other countries have been doing that for a long time. Like we've, why, you know, that. China. It's like crazy. We cannot compete. All these Americans that go, hey, we should not be buying companies. You can't compete on the global scale if you don't have Chinese, like,

Chinese companies have Chinese sovereign supporting them. So I could easily see us taking 10% stakes in every one of these companies. or forcing the Bank of America's to say, hey, get that shit, get the money out of money market accounts and stick it into our corporates. We want the stock market to fly. And everyone's going to win, dude. It would make it a lot more palatable if they started buying Bitcoin in the strategic reserve if we had a bunch of ownership of other things.

And it was just a diversification play versus like a, you know, I think that, I think you're spot on there. I hadn't really thought about that. That's a, that's a, that's a, that's a foreseeable future. I think. We talk all about that. It's so nonsensical to think about putting the AI genie back in the bottle. Yeah, no, there's no version of that.

You know, we need to slow down. That's like having sex and then putting a condom on later. Yeah. I mean, Chris, right? Feels better and you get that decking. That should be the quote for the month. See, this is, this is what, this is what you're going to get in Tampa, if Gary makes a trip to our offense,

it's the kind of dialogue you're going to get with Arch Public in Tampa at our event. Send it to your wife. She'll appreciate the humor. You can do a whole cold George, hot storage thing, you know. Yeah, there it is. There it is. Oh, man.

What happened to be 942 already? Hey, Gary, you want to see a video? Sure, buddy. The video of the thing they're talking about, because you got to come. Here, I'm going to show you guys a video because Archpublic's coming to Tampa.

Did you know this, Gary? I didn't know it. When y'all coming? October 15th, baby. Do you want to throw a party? Yeah, look. We are throwing a party. We are throwing a party.

We're bringing 250 of our... Yeah, I have to be a... Yeah. I'm excited. It's like a gillionaire playground. That was my voice in the thing. weird. Yeah. Sure.

Who said that? Yep. Yep, that's it. Yeah, Gary. Have you been to the motor enclave yet? No, I haven't. Jared, it's a sec. Can't wait.

A couple of our customers. Yeah, we're going to host a full day there from 830 to 830, 30, 30, Gary. By the way, I did DM you about our Tampa event like two months ago saying, hey, we're coming to Tampa. Do you want to be involved?

No response. Nothing from you. Got nothing. Why don't you pick up the telephone? Well, you're right. Yeah, you're right. If you want to have a date with me, fucking call me on the telephone.

Too many actors online, dude. I don't answer anything anymore. Fuck the DM. Fuck the email. So, yeah. I sent you a link to click on in your DMs. You didn't click the link. I don't check my DMs.

I mean, So, no, we have to get a hole, honey. Yeah, we absolutely want you there. We want you to be on stage of Scott. He's going to host three hours of panels in the middle of the day. To start the day, all of our clients and you and anybody else that comes is going to, we're going to race cars around the track and do some cool stuff there. The 1916 company, which is the world's largest watch retailer,

is going to have $50 million of watches there. Rolls-Royce is also going to be there with a bunch of cars, you know, to the right and left of the stage and another spot. So it's going to be a really, really, really cool, unique event. We want you there. Bring your... I can't believe you guys invited me two months ago because that would have said, hey, let's do a party at the house after or something. We got a month. We've got a month to still pull that off, Gary.

Count me in, dude. Let's have a Halloween party. I don't know. Do something insane. But count me in. And I am a customer, y'all, so I most certainly get to go. I probably need to react. I love them.

Yeah. Did we lose Melker? Yeah, Melker just lost power. And I lost audio for Andrew. Studio. So it's just you and I, Gary. Dude, the show's going to get better. Watch the static show up.

That's right. That's right. They're changing the shit after bringing in the southern boys and the crazy people. $50 million worth of watches and fancy cars. Yeah, no. Exactly. It's going to be a lot of fun. We'll,

you know, not only you and Scott on stage, but I'm sure he'll bring some other folks. Who is the best design for? Like, who's the right customer? It's folks that, you know,

have meaningful capital. So it's all of our concierge clients, Gary. So our top 1,000 clients out of our 30,000 user, they're the ones that are invited this. So we're going to have 250 to 300 people there. So it's folks that have a real interest in a couple of things,

you know, accumulating Bitcoin, using Bitcoin products, but also using our equity and ETF algorithms that we launched two months ago to generate huge amounts of cash flow that they can then put back into Bitcoin if they want to. Some of our systems and setups around that have been just outrace. just urinate. This is a perfect example of what Gary's already doing, but doing it manually, because he's an expert and he knows what he's doing. But when you see markets connect that have never connected before, when you see the opportunity to simultaneously play two different symbols that are inversely proportionate to one another in their moves, there creates an

an arbitrage opportunity in the volatility attached to those two assets like you've never seen before. And so I look at it as like, I give the analogy all the time, it's like volatility is like rainfall. It's really hard to predict. And the further out you try to predict it, the harder it is. But you know rainfall happens everywhere sometimes. You know water, if you're going to put buckets to try to catch rain in New Orleans, well, then you're relying on Gulf systems to produce that moisture. If you're going to put buckets in California,

you're going to be looking at Niño-type... El-Nino. They got it wrong this year again. My point is, is like all of these areas have different drivers for moisture and different drivers that produce the rain. And so in the age of AI and in the age of automation, I think the volatility potential or the volatility yield potential attached to the markets and the ability to catch that volatility is the first time in human history that we've been

very, very close or have arrived at systematic advantage attached to compounding. Like when you can make a quarter percent clip every single day across the markets for volatility, you're harnessing a power that you've never harnessed before. And Einstein calls it the eighth wonder of the world, the most powerful force in nature, which is the laws of compounding. And I don't think most people understand what that looks like. And I think if you play volatility traps across the markets

and you do it according to how proportionate they are in their moves, if they're inverse, then there are little arbitrage opportunities that will yield those types of results. And if you can do that every single day, you will be richer than any of your, wildest dreams. And that's something that's never been available to us before. We're knocking on that door. And so my point to people is, is like, if volatility is good and you can set traps, buckets to catch it, wouldn't you want buckets in as many cities as you can? And all you're

doing at that point is adjusting the size of the buckets based upon the average rainfall. Like, there's no reason to have a massive bucket in the desert because it doesn't rain them. And all eventually investing to me is going to be all about how well you harvest the volatility across all of the markets. How much rain can you catch every single day across these different fronts and across the systems that are moving? And you can't do that manually, period. And so that's where I think we're at the nexus of something really, really special. Well, you can do it manually, but you've got to be a hedge fund that employs, you know, 57 people sitting across trading desks, you know, spending all day, attempting to do it manually.

Well, you can do it manually against one market like that. It's, like, Gary's done it exceptionally well. He, I'd love for you to go through kind of what you did on that trade, but you did it. You took a cash yielding focus product and combined it with a huge upside gains profit or product. And you said, okay, well, I'm going to have the middle ground. I want the best of both worlds. I want my money. every month like a selling of covered call strategy would give me the rich man's gain,

but I also want a bunch of upside potential on the back end of it too. That doesn't show me another asset class where that's actually even existed at the same time. Yeah, really good. You know, I've actually probably underutilized my ability on my position because I've, you know, I've been studying Bitcoin. I didn't want to lose it. I didn't want to do anything stupid. But, you know, you guys talk about volatility as about.

Vitality. I don't think for most people that's true. I think volatility. I lost audio on you. I can't hear you at all right now. I don't. Really? I saw your mouth say vital. Volatility is vitality. And I did see that online. But let me, I'm afraid to jump back out because I don't think Scott will let me back in. I think he got kicked. Yeah. And we lost Andrew. Andrew, no, I'm back. I'm back. I'm back. Yeah, I can hear you, Tillman, no problem. Can you hear me? I can hear you just fine. So Tillman's got the problem. But what I was saying is that I don't think I got it back. I'm back. The reason I went into STRC wasn't because I was brilliant. It was because I was confused a year ago in October, November of last year, when the market just went.

Yeah, yeah. I don't understand any of this. Okay. If I don't understand it and I've missed, you know, I've lost a lot of opportunities and making lots of money. But if if I don't understand it, I can't, I'm not going to go to bed at night and feel comfortable. I'm going to be like, why did I chase?

Oh, Scott Melker told me to buy it. Like, that's not a reason about shit, okay? I mean, I'm better off listening to somebody on the street. I mean, I just, yeah. So for me, the volatility for most people in the audience, I don't think it is vitality. I think it's fear. And that allowed me to go sit the money at $94,000 Bitcoin.

And I'd already bought some 102. In fact, I did some with you guys in the 100. I said, hey, let's go into Gemini. deploy your tool and you did a great job but i was like hey do i really want to buy some more hundred thousand dollar bitcoin right this is the thing for bitcoin to me no one should chase bitcoin ever again it is a lie it is a lie that 300 billioners are telling you they are average cost is 300 bucks dude and they're telling you to buy any level but they're not i am not going to buy 120 000 bitcoin i'm not doing it dude i'm going to wait for it to come back to me and

I'm probably not going to buy 95s because I think I'm still going to see in the 70s again. This product wants to shake people out, man. It really wants to shake people out. What tools allow you to do, though? And to Andrew's point earlier, the volatility attached to leverage trading will keep the market honest for a very forever. Because there's too much money that can be gained with too little capital placed in order for those trades not to be taken. That's why you see these headlines, every time Bitcoin moves, what's the major headline everybody says? This many shorts liquidated at this price or this many longs.

That's all leveraged money. That's all people going, I can put $10 in and get $200 represented. I get 20 to one leverage in some of these cases. Like, why wouldn't I take small bets, you know, when I think it's the bottom? because it can pay 20 to 1% yield on a 1% move. Even if I'm slightly right, you know, I can get a lot of money. That is going to continue. The degenerates are always going to want to try to harness that volatility for quick, get-rich money.

And that you can be a sucker and fall into that game. Or you can play the stupid, simple, like, volatility is an asset, but you only buy on the big red candles. If you really look at what you, it's really simple. Don't chase green candles, which means don't start buying after you see them. Chase the big red candles, DCA into those, and you're going to be really happy one day. And if you don't, you're still going to have the best exposure to the cost curve that you could get in the asset. So you may be wrong in your thesis. You may be wrong.

Bitcoin could go to zero one day. But you're not wrong in the way you've played the cards. Gary, I know you're a card player. do you ever leave a poker tournament where you have the nuts on the turn and you go all in and someone draws you out on the river and you go damn it i shouldn't have done that no you have you had you played it perfectly everything on that trade and it's like hey i still should have now maybe i shouldn't have put maybe i got it in over my head but uh like when you have a chance when the fastball's coming down and you swing at the ball you don't go for a better pitch swing at

the damn ball my god and just well and to your point just don't enter tournaments where if you get knocked out you're broke you know if the buy-in to the tournament is too rich that's where you make the decision but you don't make the decision at the table like you're scared money like oh this guy's pushed all in on me and you've got the nuts and you're scared to call them that tells you the buy-in was too rich for you man And you're playing with money you can't afford to lose. Whereas if you're in a healthy, you know, ratio to your net worth, you're just going, man, I played that hand great. Luck wasn't for me.

It went against me. I got knocked out. But I did it exactly. I'd do it a hundred times the same way again. And I probably would win 190 of the tournaments. You know, that's the way real investors think in my opinion. And that's very different than the way Bitcoin investors think. Very different.

Yeah. They think like my 15-year-old son does. Right. They're the luckiest people in the room all the time. And they play the hands like that. Like, oh, I got a 16% chance of winning. I'm that guy. You know.

That's the way I play blackjack in Vegas. Yeah. That's the way I play blackjack in Vegas. I'm the luckiest guy at the table. Let's go all in on 13. I'm sticking. I'm sticking on 13. Well, we can stay on the stream here and just stare at each other for another few minutes.

Let me ask you a question before we go. Where do you guys think this thing hits resistance and really starts to struggle? I made a comment about, hey, I think we could see 70s ago. I think it would be healthy. Not necessary, but I think it would be healthy to see a retracement and just see another grab at mid-70s, low 70s. You know, and that may be spurred by a nuclear incident or a radiation event or a sunspot moment or who knows. This world is so insane. It's hard to say because we...

I'm looking for a $17,000 pullback before I even think about something because I'm of the firm belief that you always look for a 50% retracement and the balance. And so we've gone up 40%. I want to see a 20% pullback. and when I see the 20% pull back and I see a rounding bottom on the 20% and I see volume step in and I see a confirmation to me that's the most riskless entry that you can get. It doesn't mean that it won't. 72, 75-ish.

Yeah, yeah, that's where I'm thinking. Because I think 75 was a material point in our Bitcoin history. It's reached that. Beautiful the other day, dude. Yeah, yeah. And so I'd be looking for it to hold again after a major pull back because if it does, then you have a very, you've got a higher percentage likelihood that that's actually the bottom where it's going to bounce. And it doesn't mean the permanent bottom. It just

means the bottom for that leg of the journey, you know, that volatility leg, essentially. I made a bet with my brother and some other guy for, I said, look, we see 75 and I was really nervous to the bet. We'll see 75,000 before we see 81.7. It's a week ago. Happened in two days. Grant had to pay me off. But, you know, when it hit 75,000, it was really a bad bet on me. I should have said 75, 800 or something. It hit 75,000 and it just pierce right below it. It stayed there for two seconds, man.

I mean, maybe 20 seconds, okay? And these people, they're sitting there going, hey, I'm waiting for the bottom. Dude, if your bid isn't already there, you ain't getting hit. You're going to be lucky to get hit if it's there, right? If you put in 94-99, right? You, you, you, like, it's, these, these very bottom marks don't last very long. Now, and they squeeze away from you really, really, really fast. Right.

Really fast. Like, you go from that 74, 8, up to 76 in less than an hour. I mean, you, it moves really fast on you. Yeah, it's, it's, yeah, if we see a retracement, great, I don't think it'll be a quote-unquote violent retracement. I don't think that's how. Bitcoin moves anymore. I don't think we're going to see a down 6% day, you know, anytime soon. Again, we're back in the fall, right? Selma and go away is over. It's been over for a month. We're back in this space now where people are making allocations to portfolios that are,

you know, let's call it the bid underneath Bitcoin in a much, much bigger way than it was over the past six months. So, you know, we may get back there. but it would be a slow bleed of some sort. I don't know. I, you know, we'll see. It'll probably clip to 70s, how deep it goes into the 70s. I'm not entirely sure. When I'm seeing Morgan Stanley, you know, double the highest day they've ever had,

that just tells me something. That just tells me that the narrative is starting to grab hold in spaces that, You know, those people aren't going to sell their Bitcoin, no matter what it does, you know, on a day-to-day basis. They are never going to sell. And those people have been taught for the past 20 years. If you purchase an asset because you've made a decision that you believe in its long-term viability, any dip of any kind is for buying. Add money to that position. So again, that's another bid that's just kind.

sitting there, right? That's really hard to break. So we'll see. If we see 75 over the next 90 days, I'd be slightly surprised. I'd be a little bit surprised. Well, I will just say this. I think that the guard has changed officially. And I think whatever bottoms we find are Wall Street bottoms, like you said, systematic buys. And it's, if you look at like old school bitcoins, the hardcore narrative guys, they've moved to Zcash. And that's why Zcash has gone crazy. The narrative that they are married to doesn't exist in Bitcoin anymore. They want the anarchist coin.

They want to feel like the rest of the world's collapsing and they're the smartest people in the room that have the only asset that's going to survive. I just think it's just incredibly naive, very childlike, very foolish. and we're going to see this is the first time in the Bitcoin's history that we've actually seen that take place. The capitulation from the OGs actually come home to they've sold out a lot of those coins. And I don't, to Andrew's point, I don't think the people that bought those coins are nearly as price sensitive or capital sensitive as the people that sold them. And I think that that's going to be a material difference as it pertains to where the future price goes.

you know. If you look at the regular stock market, for example, one of the greatest secrets that nobody really thinks about is not only that inflation drives prices up, but every employee in America is buying U.S. securities every day with their 401K, there is a literal bid. There's a bid floor at plus 1% of the average daily volume. There's more, there's 1% of every day's volume on the bid every single day. whether you like it or not, whether people are feeling good about it or not, because people are at their jobs and their money managers are shoveling their money into Google. And we're going to see that grow over the next 10 years in Bitcoin. And 1% of that pie pushed into Bitcoin is going to have a huge net effect on the price compared to all the other markets. It's just a much smaller market. It's going to move it more, in my opinion. Well, I think that's an awesome way to close.

What else can we say?