The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High & Will "Eat" Gold

Episode Date: March 13, 2024

James Butterfill, Head Of Research at CoinShares, and Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, join me to discuss the latest in crypto: Bitcoin reaching $73K and ETFs experiencing record inflows.  Chris Inks will join in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  James Butterfill: https://twitter.com/jbutterfill Matt Hougan: https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► Sponsored by DevvE DevvE is a next-generation cryptocurrency - DevvE addresses Bitcoin’s most significant weaknesses—regulatory compliance, energy consumption, costs and speed! 👉 Follow DevvE on X for Updates: https://twitter.com/DevveEcosystem  👉 Join the DevvE Telegram group to stay in the know! https://t.me/DevveOfficial  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:00 Demand shock 4:20 Why are miners down? 7:00 Bitcoin is eating gold 11:50 2 Bitcoin narratives 16:45 ETF inflows 18:15 Massive inflows will continue 22:30 Still not late to buy Bitcoin 23:40 RIAs to add Bitcoin to portfolios 30:15 Devve 31:30 Bitcoin chart 38:00 Ethereum chart 39:20 Litecoin chart 41:25 TAO chart 42:25 IMGNAI chart 43:55 Maple finance chart 45:05 FTM chart 47:35 Injective chart 48:20 How to be patient in trading 49:40 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

After some rollercoaster price action yesterday, Bitcoin once again hit a new all-time high and seems like it's going to just keep hitting new all-time highs every day. But more importantly, Michael Saylor has made the claim that Bitcoin will eat gold and inflows into Bitcoin products and outflows from gold products seem to indicate that that may actually be the case. I'm so excited to have two of my favorite guests here. We've got James Butterfield from CoinShares and, of course, Matt Hogan from Bitwise and Chris Inks, Texas West Capital, on the back.

We're going to talk about what's happening with Bitcoin, where all these inflows are coming from, and what we can look forward to as they continue. Let's go. Let's go. to the channel and hit that like button. I saw that quite a few of you guys tuned in last night to the new Alpha show with Joe Vizzani from Lunar Crush. First show that I wasn't on. It was weird being in the comments on my own channel, but I'm glad that we're able to expand here, offer you guys new content. So I suggest that if you didn't watch it live last night, that you go ahead and check it out on the channel. I'm going to go ahead and bring on our two guests today. We call this

three men in front of cream colored walls, the wolf edition. We were trying to get James to get a curtain, but we couldn't get one in time. Sorry, it's okay. I won't hold it against you this time. But listen, we've got a massive day yesterday, Matt, right? Bitcoin I74K is Bitcoin ETFC record 1 billion in net inflows. I believe the best day was between 600, 7 million before yesterday. Is that correct? That's right. Yep. Trace commas yesterday, pretty big day. I mean, a billion in inflows in a day, we said maybe 9, 10 net inflow, hard to calculate thus far. So that's 10% of all inflows in a single day. And they continue to rise seemingly every single day, even in the face of actually somewhat increasing GBTC outflows.

That's exactly right. The demand for these ETFs is off the charts. They're obviously the strongest ETF launch of all time. And it seems to be accelerating. And there are reasons to believe it will continue to accelerate. I'm on the road right now talking to financial advisors and platforms, and they're just turning on these ETFs. So this was the first billion dollar day. I don't think it will be the last. We bought 15,000 Bitcoin yesterday. That's 16 days of new supply. The demand supply imbalance is really remarkable. So yeah, new all time highs highs and i don't think we're done there's an interesting what is this go ahead yeah there's an interesting point here um we in 2021 the best year for flows we saw 10.6 billion dollars this year to date we've seen just over we

just hit the 12 billion dollar mark so this is the largest year for inflows and there is that link between price and flows and i think we're experiencing now this a demand shock so in the commodities world china's a good example the early noughties steel prices went up 800 with the property boom that was a demand shock but usually there's like a supply response, i.e. miners, they mine more iron ore and they produce more, they increase the supply. Obviously that can't be done in the Bitcoin world. And to make it worse, we're having the halvings, we're going from 900 to 450 a day. Suddenly this is what's really pushing up prices, kind of exciting time to be in the market.

Yeah, I'd say to make it better on that one rather than to make it worse, because that seems to be positively affecting the price, right? You have spot Bitcoin ETFs captured 90% of market share, leaving futures ETFs in the dust, right? So BITO, all of those, their afterthoughts, it's happening much faster, I think, than we thought. Futures ETFs are inferior products. We know that. But James, really quickly, what's happening to the rest of these products that were either acting as Bitcoin proxies? We talked about miners a bit. I would love to get into that before.

What's happening to everything else? We'll talk about it eating gold, but it seems like the spot ETFs are eating everything Bitcoin related at the moment. Yeah. I mean, on average, Bitcoin miners last year, they were up about 130%. So that was really good. This year, they're down, which doesn't seem to make sense initially when you think about it. Down 45% on average.

And I think it's because people are freaking about what happens at the halving to these Bitcoin mining companies. We've done a lot of work into looking at average cost of production for each Bitcoin mining company. So CleanSpark at one end 26 000 per bitcoin after the halving but um something like new hut it used to be high eights at ninety thousand we estimate so you know after the halving so there's real divergence and fortunes but i think the market's being pretty cruel on most of the miners and they're down a lot this year and i think that's a great potential opportunity those that have been kind of unduly punished from a price perspective. And yet they're going to survive the halving and do quite well, in fact. And I think the market's missing that.

So we're going to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Basically, for once, you can't just say all miners are good, all miners are bad. You have to find the ones that are actually going to be profitable after the halving. But right now I've heard the miner floor is roughly 45,000. We're trading at $73,000 Bitcoin until the halving, all of them are making money right now. Yeah, exactly. And well, the post halving floor is about 44,000, 45,000. So I think well north of 50, 60% will be fine as long as the prices remain above that point i do like historically we do see hash power decline so they turn off rigs that's most likely going to happen given how competitive it is and how high the difficulty is um but i think given the price

environment that hash rate whilst it might fall recover very quickly as people buy new mining rigs so matt i think people that understand agree with James, they're probably scared of the halving. But I think your average retail person who probably was investing in miners is just FOMOing out of miners and into spot ETFs. Do you agree? That's right. I think it's both of those things at once.

I think it's people afraid of the halving and it's substitution. And we've seen that in the past. And I think people are getting it wrong. I'm with James as well. I mean, I'm looking at Riot's substitution. And we've seen that in the past. And I think people are getting it wrong. I'm with James as well. I mean, I'm looking at riots chart, riots down 25%. Bitcoin's up 73% this year. That's 100% spread. I also think the miners generally are in a better position now than they were before 2022. I think 2022 shocked the miners. And many of them have cleaned up their balance sheet. I think they're better positioned in aggregate. I agree that not all of them are well positioned, but they're better positioned in aggregate than they have been in the past. I think it's an

interesting trade. Gold's an interesting one too. We've seen gold outflows, fund flows of $20 billion since the start of 2023. And Bitcoin's seen $13.5 billion of inflows since 2023. So definitely there's this substitution. People are looking for assets that diversify, that are gold-like. And I think Bitcoin really fits that bill and actually diversifies way better than gold does. So it's kind of a no brain on why we're seeing such demand this year. You gave me a great segue into the title, which was Bitcoin hits new all time high and will eat gold. That was based on the fact that

rapper Drake, you guys may have missed this, but Drake shared a Michael Saylor video to his Instagram. He has hundreds of millions of followers or something. And it was the core of it. We know that Drake's kind of a Bitcoiner. I think he made a million dollar Bitcoin bet on the Super Bowl in 2022. But this was the interview from Saylor, a really quick clip talking about gold exactly. DRAKE TILLERY, CFO Alphabet and Google Certainly, at least digital gold, it's going to eat gold. It's got all of the great attributes of gold, and it's got none of the defects of gold. If you could teleport gold from new york to tokyo in a in a few minutes people would like it um it he also said this just to be a currency or do you think it ever becomes a

quote-unquote currency i it doesn't have to be a currency uh you know nobody's trying to buy a cup of coffee with a fraction of their building on Fifth Avenue. I mean, is this the correct positioning for it? Because it's ironic. We're saying, you know, Michael Saylor is saying that it's digital gold. It's better than gold. But flowing out of an ETF and into a spot ETF at Bitcoin isn't exactly like owning it as a store of value. There's something different here, right? So there's the trade and then there's the Michael Saylor, you should self-custody and own it and hold it forever mentality. I was just having this conversation with a client earlier that in many ways, Bitcoin is very similar to gold, but you just can't sprinkle gold down a telephone line.

So exactly that point. But it is different to gold in an important aspect. And that is, you know, from an investment management perspective, it's a growth asset. It's connected to stuff that's growing on the internet. And that's something gold doesn't have. And that's what's really, I think, compelling for a lot of people who really like gold, that Bitcoin has this store of value component. It also has this growth component. Yeah, I think that's right. It's also just better in a portfolio than gold. The problem I've always had with gold is gold itself may hedge against inflation if it was 100% of your portfolio. But if you're adding a small amount of gold to

your portfolio, it doesn't have the beta to hedge the rest of your portfolio against that risk. And Bitcoin right now has that beta, by which it means it can go up a lot, which gold just historically can't do. It doesn't move that much. So I do think it's eating gold. I think we're going to stop framing Bitcoin's potential as a fraction of the gold market and start framing it as a multiple of the gold market. I think that's going to be a shift that people make during this cycle, which is a. I really agree with that.

If I say to a client, oh, yeah, Bitcoin's going to 100,000, they think I'm a little bit mad. But then if I say, what is the Bitcoin's price if it comprises 14% of gold's market share, that's 100,000. And in that perspective, it doesn't seem so unreasonable in that point. It could eat a lot more than 14% of gold's market share. So it could be well north of 100,000. I think that's exactly right. People used to laugh at the things Saylor said. It's like gold without the defects, but that's really true. Nostalgia is not an investment thesis, which is what people are betting on when they're betting

on gold. And it really has most of gold's characteristics and then better characteristics. So yeah, I think it's going to be multiples and not percentages. And that means those price targets, as James said, they can get much larger without it seeming ridiculous. Yeah, James, you said you can't sprinkle it down a phone line, but I found out in college that you could sprinkle it into terrible alcohol and get very sick from drinking it if you've ever had Goldschlager in the 90s. But I'm curious if part of your pitch now, this has been my pitch to no-coiners, is exactly what you guys just described. I've been using the, even if you hate Bitcoin, it improves your Sharpe ratio argument. That's how I've been approaching people. And then maybe we'll get them into the actual

important attributes and reasons to hold it in the future. But you're like you're on the road right now, Matt. I talked to Ryan and Juan on Spaces in the last week. You guys are just no sleep till Brooklyn out there, just, you know, in hotels and pitching in these small rooms and RIAs. Are you selling them Bitcoin? Are you selling them all of the above? Are you saying, listen, this just improves your portfolio. Get it in there. That's right. My life is a series of beige curtains right now, which is fine. Wouldn't have it any other way. It's different. There are

actually two narratives that are really working right now. One is the price narrative and the supply demand dynamic. Investors can easily understand that. And they don't want to be the ones who looked at this, passed on it. And three years from now, two years from now, one year from now, their clients said, why didn't you invest us in Bitcoin? Right. They don't want to answer that question. So that's part of it.

I tweeted about this earlier. The other thing that's really changed from past cycles is I'm hearing more advisors worried about the U.S. debt, worry about the fiscal situation and using Bitcoin as a release valve to hedge their clients against that risk. That wasn't visceral for professional investors in previous cycles. I don't know if it's the election. I don't know what's driving it. But in each of the, say, seven meetings I've had over the last two days, that's actually come up as one of the theses so some people price some people sort of economic fundamentals and bitcoin can welcome

them both in we have we have a survey with all our clients um and asking them you know what's stopping them buying bitcoin or what are the key worries and a government ban and regulation comprise 70 of of the responses. So they're seriously worried about it. And, you know, we wrote a paper called A Little Bitcoin Goes a Long Way four years ago. And it's kind of people agree with it and liked it. But they said, oh, yeah, but, you know, it's the government could ban it. I mean, what if? And now that argument has completely disappeared.

It feels like there's really it's very hard, I think, to resist once the clients understand it better. It's very hard, it seems like you have like a three-pronged challenge when you enter these rooms. You have to sell them on Bitcoin, then you have to sell them on the actual ETF and add it to their portfolio. Then you have to sell them on BITB as the one that they should buy, right? Or the one that they should approve. So it's kind of like you have to educate them on Bitcoin, get them to want the ETF and understand how to buy it, and then tell them yours is the best one to buy, right? That's exactly right. That's the one, two, three. I love that. Fortunately, there are strong arguments for each of those. But a great thing is actually what James said. You no longer have to deal with some of the foot. You don't have to worry as much about government banning. That doesn't come up. Tether doesn't come up. Criminal use doesn't come up. Many of

those traditional things that we used to spend 60, 70% of the meeting talking about, those have honestly just disappeared over the last three or four months. And that's a real change. Those were holding Bitcoin back and now they've just been released. Is that simply because the ETF has been approved and that was the stamp and that's all we needed? Is it Larry Fink out there? Because it seems like, I mean, we still have the anti-crypto army raging about terrorist financing, right? We have the digital asset mining, whatever the tax that's being proposed again in the 2025 budget by the Biden administration at 30% effectively taxed on Bitcoin mining that would kill the United States. So those narratives are still coming from the people that are actually in power. It just seems like nobody cares.

Just like nobody seems to care about Gary Gensler anymore. They don't fear him because they keep losing. It just seems like it's still there. It's just being ignored. I think that's right. I mean, they cried wolf for years with those narratives and nothing happened. I do think the ETF is just a watershed moment. Larry Fink is a watershed moment the ETF is just a watershed moment. Larry Fink is a watershed

moment. BlackRock is a watershed moment. Soon, Morgan Stanley, UBS, et cetera. I think there's just no way people realize there's no way that genie goes back in the bottle given how far we've come. So those narratives are still there. I'm not so sure there's an army anymore, Scott. I think it may just be a few people rattling spears and trying to be loud. But I'll just say that investors are no longer worried about it, whether it's BlackRock, whether it's ETFs, whatever. It feels like a scene in the movie where Elizabeth Warren's like run out in front of her army, like in Braveheart to go fight. And then you turn around and everybody betrays her and slowly trickles off into the woods. That's what it's starting to feel like to me. Go ahead, James. Matt, I agree with two of your three points in terms of the pitch.

The third point is we must consider BRR, so Bruce from Valkyrie. So it's known that CoinJS has just acquired Valkyrie. And so we also have an ETF. So just throwing that out there. Yeah, that has happened. I'm a Valkyrie investor. It didn't go that great for me, but I'm glad for you guys. So BRRR has actually, I mean, I think it's generally underperformed and probably because maybe it was in this phase of transition. VanEck was also trailing, but I believe I want to bring it up. I believe they

just made a pretty big strategic move here, right, Matt? They saw a huge inflow day. They've waived their fees for a year or until they reach 1.5 billion AUM. And I believe they're giving the profits to Bitcoin core contributors. I mean, there's so much jockeying still here happening in the background after all the success. I think there was this impression that the whole pie would be $3 to $5 billion or something like that, maybe $10 in a year, and that most of these would just go away. But it seems like there's just so much interest that everyone's actually kind of doing well. I mean, you guys got to $2 billion in yours, and you're still behind GBTC, BlackRock, these huge names. But $2 billion, you guys can ride for a very long time with low fees at those numbers.

We're really happy. For what it's worth, we love BRR. I love HODL. I love seeing more crypto native managers gathering inflows. And so I love that all of these companies are doing exceptionally well. That's right. The pie is bigger than people thought. And I think ETF managers realize that this is a decade long play. This is a play that's just getting started. We're

in month two, but these inflows are going to continue for a while. There'll be more products. So people are establishing their footholds. We're thrilled to get to 2 billion. We think we'll be at 20 eventually. And I think BRR will be hugely successful as well. And that will be great for Bitcoin. It will be great for everybody. And one of the reasons why I think the flows will be sustained is so far, the RIA market has been pretty much closed. I think Carson Group is the only one that's really allowed green light, green lighted Bitcoin ETFs. And now as Vanguard and some of the others open up that market, there will be demand from there too. And so I think someone heard it's a $50 trillion market

from the RIA. So we could well see these flows continue for some time. Wait, is Vanguard actually going to open it? Because last I checked, we were boycotting Vanguard. I might've been the one who started that hashtag. I'm not going to make any claims. And I switched away. But we know their CEO left. And the Bitcoiners love to pretend that had anything to do with Bitcoin. But we all know rationally that it didn't. But I mean, Vanguard would be a huge unlock.

I mean, Matt, you said we do have Merrill now saying that they're coming online. We know that there are others. And James, you made the best point, which I've been making. It sort of ended up being bullish that nobody had access to these things because it's keeping a trickle out of the demand spigot instead of that early flood and then having it turned off. Yeah, I mean, I totally agree. I mean, I just it's hard to see a downside picture for Bitcoin prices at the moment, just given how strong the demand is. Yeah, I did see in see in your comments section on Twitter that someone said a lot of flows in could mean a lot of flows out.

And I think that's the beast. At some point, you will see some people taking profit at some outflows. But in the face of cutting interest rates this year at some point, the halving, the ETF demand, it's hard to foresee in the near term at the very least. Yeah, I think what we see happen is kind of what we saw yesterday. Bitcoin's wild four hours, new record of 73K, tumbled 69K, rebound to 71K, 360 million in liquidations. I think what we see

in those is we get this fever pitch in leverage, and there's this underlying spot demand. The leverage gets flushed. We see these big drops, you know, and then it goes right back to where it was. Right. So it kind of explains this crazy price action. Literally, all you have to do is ever have bought Bitcoin and waited. What's really interesting is looking at the futures market positioning on Deribit and a few others. We aggregate the data together.

And, you know, when we saw that correction at 69,000 down to 59, that was kind of obvious because we saw a lot of futures positioning around that kind of level. And now we've smashed through that. There was some positioning at 70,000, we smashed through that. Now, if you look at the futures curve, what price point is the largest positioning now? It's 100,000. So it doesn't feel like there's a huge amount of resistance between here and 100,000. Massive contango. Yeah, Matt. I absolutely think that's true. I mean, I think there's a behavioral answer for that, right? The

price will rise as long as demand outstrips new supply until long-term investors sell. And they're humans. So they sell at known levels. They sold at all-time highs. That wasn't surprising. They'll sell at a hundred thousand. That won't be surprising. So those are the obvious walls. And I do think there's, you know, there's not much between us and a hundred thousand dollars. But hey, if you want to leverage, I just want to say really quickly, if you want a lesson on leverage, the people who are getting liquidated are long. These are people who are betting on price going up, you know, at first and they're just too over leveraged. So somebody just crushes them, makes a bit of money by pushing price down,

it goes right back up. So all you ever have to do is just hold Bitcoin and watch it go up. These are people primarily who are betting the market going up and getting liquidated. But go ahead, James. Yeah, I mean, I read some some a lot of clients start saying to say now okay it's all-time highs why should I buy now and you know I think the futures positioning point is important but I also think it's just important to take like a bigger look at a bigger longer term picture here than just how much it's run out in a very short period of time just the point I made about gold earlier you know 100,000 is only 14% of gold's market share. I think that's a very good rationale. And the diversification merits suggest

hodling, buying and holding for a long period of time, essentially. Yeah. Yeah. I would add, I think that's actually hugely important. One of the biggest pushbacks I get from people today is, are they late? And that's why those Twitter jokes like it's $0.07 million are actually relevant. Right. You do need to show people the size of this opportunity so they don't feel like they're late. Right. It always feels at this stage in the cycle that you're late. And I don't think people are. Did anyone who's ever bought Bitcoin thinks they're late because they meet someone who bought it six months ago or six years ago? 2016 class hates the 14 guys. The 14 guys hate the 12s, and the 12s really hate the

10s, you know? I've seen a few tweets comparing Michael Saylor to Bunker Hunt. I don't know if you've seen these, but what's interesting is Bunker Hunt in the 70s cornered one third of the market, the silver market. I mean, I just, you can't compare it. I mean, Saylor's got 1% of Bitcoin. It's just not the 33% that the bunker hunt had. So I don't think Saylor's a systemic risk to the Bitcoin price. And Bitcoin has just eclipsed the market cap of silver. And like, I think kind of under reported or under notice this week but bitcoin's

now a bigger asset than silver it's insane it is amazing it is amazing but you know just getting started but it is amazing matt i want to circle back to the point uh that we were talking about before i started talking about price which is this kind of slow trickle of unlocks of rias speaking to your team i know you guys have been convincing a few of these, I guess, smaller RIAs, a billion, 750 million here to start allocating BITB and 1% or more to portfolios. And we haven't seen any of that yet, but that narrative is really happening, that this is going to be a percentage of everyone's portfolio that they manage and passively without you having to call and request it.

That's exactly right. I was just on stage with an advisor at a conference. I didn't know this, but he had a 3% model allocation for all of his clients, manages multiple hundreds of millions of dollars. I actually think that percentage, Scott, has gone up. It was 1% previously. It's now more like 3% for aggressive portfolios, 2% for moderate portfolios, and 1% for conservative portfolios. So these advisors that have discretion over their client assets, meaning they decide what to invest in, they're putting these ETFs into their models and automatically investing. As more money comes in, they'll buy more. That's how this thing scales. That will ultimately impact how this asset performs too, because these are long-term investments.

They're also rebalanced regularly. I think it'll have a small dampening effect on volatility, but it's a big deal. These are tens of trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines. It's just starting to come in. But James, that's tens of trillion dollars that's starting to come in that has no decision making behind it. That's the difference here. We see BlackRock talking about a percentage in their global allocation fund, whatever it's called, and another fund. This is when it gets really interesting because this isn't convincing

a client to buy something. This is them having no idea that they have Bitcoin in exposure and it's just in the fund that they bought. Correct? Yeah. And yeah, if you are sort of tracking some sort of index, that's absolutely right. A lot of people probably don't realize that in a pension fund, they probably own MicroStrategy because it's in the S&P 500 right now. But people love to say that BlackRock owns 10 or 15% of MicroStrategy as if that was like Larry Fink called and did an earnings report, an earnings report and did, that's passive. They have to do that to index.

You know, most fund managers, they risk budget and they'll say, okay, well, I've got X amount of risk to buy some sort of asset. So if you said, okay, I've got a hundred basis points, 1% of risk budget. So you're happy with it going up, your volatility in your portfolio going 1% on an annualized basis. Actually, at the moment, if you look back just at the last year of a vol of equities and bonds and Bitcoin together, that would suggest an 8.5% Bitcoin position, just with 100 basis points of additional risk when you're regularly balancing. So, yeah, I think there's a very compelling story to our Bitcoin.

If you're worried about the volatility, just do regular rebalancing. That's right. Isn't the volatility the boon? That's the whole point. But yeah, go ahead, Matt. Volatility is a boon, particularly if you rebalance. I just add one more perspective to put on like a Vanguardian hat, to put on Jack Bogle's hat. His core thesis is basically you should own the world.

You should own the world's capital assets. You shouldn't bet on this or that. Just own the world's capital assets. Right now, you know, Bitcoin's a trillion and a half. U.S. stocks are 50 trillion. If you have zero percent Bitcoin, you're like two percent under allocated to Bitcoin. You're effectively short this market. If you just own the world's assets, you need a one percent exposure to Bitcoin. That should be the starting point. If you're under that, you're short this asset class. And I think that's sort of a game changer in how people think about this market. Yeah. As we come to time here, is there anything I missed that you guys want to make sure that the audience knows here?

I think that's it. I don't know. There's not much else to say. No, I think we covered it well. But I mean, Matt, is there anything else you're out there pitching that we might have missed here? I would just know that there are a lot of people like me on the road right now talking to trillions of dollars of assets. I'm on the road for 20 straight days and I'm not the only one. And I think that means we are still early in this process. There's still large unlocks coming. So it's an exciting time. I just want to bring up one of those guys who's not on the road.

Jamie Dimon defends rights by Bitcoin, even though he never will. I mean, this is made news, but he's always said that. Isn't that just the obvious position? Oh, man. Never say never, Jamie. It's tough to have that on the record. Yeah, but that's happening everywhere. They have trading businesses. They're building in this space, just like everyone else. You can't not. JP Morgan coin, not Jamie Dimon, right? James,

I mean, JP Morgan will be here just like everyone else. Well, I'd say it's a lot safer buying Bitcoin than it is buying cigarettes. So you're saying that Jamie Dimon hasn't been on the right side of history multiple times in the past. How dare you that they don't pay? You know, it's a they're the classic like everything we've ever done wrong. Let's just throw it as a criticism at Bitcoin and wag the dog, you know, because money laundering, all the KYC AML that they've done it all. Right. Of course. Well, guys, thank you very much, James. You're not invited unless you get the curtain next time. The wall is right. I need the curtain. Guys, you're both amazing. Thank you the curtain next time The wall is right You need the curtain

You're both amazing, thank you so much For taking the time this morning Thanks, see you soon I'm trying to like DJ this stream On a tiny little laptop Instead of with multiple streams Moving things around, it's kind of fun It's a big challenge

I do want to play you guys a quick video Since we circled back with Michael Saylor. And I see you guys talking about it in the audience. I don't know if this is a top signal, but I laughed really hard when I watched this. So we're just going to do this for Chris really quick. But like most of the people who are buying assets at some point want to sell the assets out of profit people people that use fiat currency as a store of value we call them we core we call them we core people that use fiat currency we call them we callrency We call them the core

We call them the core We call them the core We call them the core There's a name for it That sounds like something I would have made, honestly, in my DJ career. I used to make sort of these joke tracks, but man, that's good. I think we might have to like reincorporate that music into some of our, our shows. I know you guys love my trumpets, but maybe we'll have to incorporate that. And really quickly before I bring Chris,

I've got to talk to you, of course, about Debbie. You guys know, I've been talking about them endlessly. Got a brand new website, our sponsor once a week on here. So now the website's amazing, really explains everything that they're doing. I've talked to you guys about the incredible team that's involved in this, the people that are building this, but also all the things that they're doing. You can really get that entire informational download here on their website. I suggest you check it out. They're really solving a lot of problems or at least addressing a lot of the criticisms of the

blockchain space. And they're getting a lot of regular story approval for doing that and working with some of the largest corporations. A lot of it I'm not allowed to share yet, but I can't wait until I can. Nothing in it for me except for you guys clicking on the link and making me look good, I guess. But I ask that you check them out. They're amazing. And yes, Little Bubble is great to those of you guys mentioned there. All right. Time for us to look at these charts. Brianna Guy, who's going to say, of course, we're at 73, 72, whatever the price is right now. What have I been telling you the entire time I've been on this show? Chris, are you shocked?

Of course, we're at 73, 72, whatever it is. I've been talking to you guys, telling you that's going to happen, right? You have. You have. Where are we at? 72, 820 right now. I'm going to go ahead and bring it up. I mean, what are you looking at right now on Bitcoin? Man, nothing's changed. There's a lot of similarity between the breakthrough, the all-time high here in 2020 to 2017. And we've got pretty much the same thing here. It's just, this took us two weeks. We broke out just above it and then pulled back and then rallied back up in two weeks. And then that third week we kind of broke out. This one, we did it all in one week there. And here we are breaking out. Man, I keep changing targets here because we continue to be aggressive. We continue to rally stronger. If you remember a while back when I finally, when know, when we got the breakout

over here and I changed this alternate account and I said, okay, we've got this at the time away triple three target up here at 75, things have changed. I mean, you know, we look back and we go, well, you know, the ETF flows, you guys are top. I would have great show today, man. I love Matt Hogan and those guys over at Bitwise. Seriously. They just, they're out there with the community so much. Unbelievable. They're on every single show. And it shows there are 2 billion AUM versus all the other crypto natives who are trailing. And there was no really solid reason. Yeah. Exactly. And so, again, a billion dollars net inflows. I mean, it's ridiculous. And I mean, we can't ignore iBit jumping there with five hundred and sixty million inflows themselves when GBTC had that huge day of almost, you know, four hundred and five billion.

They're at fifteen billion. It's just over two months into this. It's so crazy. So my targets have changed. You know, I move them into a gradually more aggressive kind of situation. And that has us up now with about 110,000. So I've got this as a one, two, and then a one, two, three here at about 110,000. Ultimately with this right here, if we're getting this, we kind of fall through with what I'm kind of looking at. I mean, man, we're looking at there like 240,000.

And it doesn't mean it can't go higher. Also, something else I'm working on. What if, I kind of floated this out there on Twitter recently, what if we've got one more cycle still to go? So everybody's been talking very much about end of the world, blah, blah, blah for three years now, right? But what if, What if we've got at least one more cycle here? And so I've gone back in Bitcoin. I'm going back here and I'm redoing the count. And I'm seeing a possibility that we could still have one more. And all of a sudden, you know, depending on how these ETF flows continue, you know, over the next few years, you know, Kathy Woods says some crazy things, it seems like, but we thought it

was crazy to hit all time highs before having, right? So I don't know. You can just look at your chart right there. It looks like a one, two, three. So where's four, five, right? I mean, if you just look, I, you know, I'm not an Elliott waiver, but my brain says that when I see it right there. I don't think those are hyperbolic price targets at all. And I do think we have more cycles. Every time we get the, this time is different, super cycle, blah, blah, blah. We get the 85% correction. Everybody says it's dead. And then we go back up. And by the way, people, I see like you over here say 240K, I just passed out. Guys, talk about hyperbolic. That was my target for last cycle. When 65 broke and we went to 69, I thought we were going to two thirds. Like I really did.

So nothing surprises me now. Yeah. Yeah. But I mean, it's there, you know, the structure is there. The possibility is there. I'm not saying that we have to do all these crazy things, but what I am saying is if you're in this and you're not really kind of considering this possibility and looking at what's really happening, I think you're doing yourself a great disservice. Again, I talked about it before. I think by the time, you know, we've got usually like this 90 day, 120 day kind of period where these very large RIAs, these very, very big RIAs kind of go and they do their due diligence. Right. They don't want to get you into an ETF, you know, that's going to fail. And so they go for, you know days 120 days whatever they're looking they're watching they're doing their homework uh remember a lot of these guys don't really have much of a clue about

bitcoin so they have to go and they have to learn all this thing that a lot of y'all are here and you already know because you've been here for years right but these big platforms you know they they will actually allocate for their, um, investors. And so the investor won't even know that would just be like, yeah, we, you know, we decided 2% in here or 5% of Bitcoin or whatever, and the allocated to it. And I think we start seeing that here, you know, as we start getting into summer, which, um, you know, what we're getting now is not even that what we're getting now is like the bottom rung basically of, of, of what we can get for the ETF. So, uh, of what we can get for the ETF.

So I think there's a good possibility we might even see these flows just kind of continue to accelerate into the summer and through that. And if they do, things just get really wild because guess what, guys? A lot of people talk about the halving and how it doesn't. They're like, oh, well, just remember, it's just the future supply that's halved. And they're right, it is. But if we keep having this, just this ridiculous, voracious appetite for ETFs, where in the hell is all this extra Bitcoin going to come from? Right now, there's buyers at all levels. There's always buyers, guys. And as price goes up, you're going to find buyers. But the reality is price will have to go up because you're going to be taking everything that's coming new plus whoever they can get from the sides as price continues to go up. So I think something I've

talked to you about a long time, Scott, and something I continue to tell people about is even if you're a trader, you should have a bag of Bitcoin in a wallet that you don't touch. Don't make it easy to trade with because once you kind of mess up your other wallet that you're trading with, you're going to, oh, it's so easy to pull it over. Don't do it. Just leave it. It's your protection against yourself. And just enjoy the ride. I've always been a, and it changes, but I've always believed, or at least I was taught long before crypto in the 70-15-15 portfolio, right?

70% investments, 15% to trade, 15% in cash so that you're able to buy the dip. Yep. Pretty simple, right? So, like, I think even the most sort of accomplished traders know that your investments are likely to outperform you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and, and, you know, and that's what people that trade for a living, you know, we always take that position that those are going to do it. And, you know, having the skill of trading there, you can, you know, if you do it right, you can kind of figure out where these macro tops and bottoms generally are, allows you to get into your investments early. And man, it just looks good. So yeah.

Yeah. And today, by the way, I think in 15, someone said in 15 minutes in the comments, my news today, the Denkun upgrade is coming for Ethereum, which is going to bring layer two fees basically down to zero. And seemingly nobody's even talking about that. So what else you got there beyond Bitcoin? I agree with the high targets. We'll see what else you got. Real quick here. You know, we talk about Ethereum and Bitcoin. I think I'm going to talk about this kind of more regularly, but again, here's the, the Wachovian structure here, this reaccumulation structure. I don't have it all labeled here, but basically your price action and your volume look amazing through this. You've got a little bit of a spring here

on some low volume, especially when compared to your selling climax over here, this automatic reaction selling climax. So, I mean, again, I'm still looking for the breakout here above this weekly pivot at about, what is it, about 0.06. And then, you know, I think even if you're just kind of really not aggressive at all, you know, you should be looking up here toward the top of the range up here, you know, 0.08, 0.09. But I do think, again, we do break out there based on the height here. I don't have it drawn on here. So let me grab it real quick here. I think we've got a minimum

expected target up there at around 0.129, at least. So, you know, again, and they say, oh, but if Bitcoin's doing all this, then what's going to, well, Bitcoin rallies and Ethereum rallies with it, right? Ethereum's just going to rally at a greater clip. That's all. Yeah. And so, yeah. I've seen it every cycle.

I like it, man. I like it. The other thing I want to say, everybody's getting all excited about LikePoint all of a sudden because it had a big move there right over here. This is the weekly chart. So we had a big rally up i'll pull back another big rally up and here we go popping out again uh really this looks like a giant fourth wave guys this looks like reaccumulation look at this how long this is from december of 2017 oh my god that's like seven years here leading into this accumulation um so yeah so i'm looking for this thing to really break out here and based on the height here and i'm you're you know you're

about to see a lot of hate if i say this but 2486 2486 dollars is where that target is based on the height here so we just broke impulsively you know through this, the weekly pivot here, rallied up to the R1. You know, I think minimally, locally, you look at 160 and 184.50 are my local targets right here. But again, you know, you should be looking then toward the top of the range up here at about 375. And once we're breaking out, it's blue sky territory and things can get kind of hairy. If you think Bitcoin is going to get a little wild, why wouldn't you think that everything kind of gets a little wild, right? Yeah. I love when people think that this time is going to be different and all coins won't go because Bitcoins, and then you have meme coins making 500% gains in a day. So yeah, we know that

humans are going to human, the casino is always open to crypto. But what else? Like Litecoin, it's funny. I always get the comments are like, when we start talking about Litecoin, it means it's the top. Yeah. Only when it actually goes up to the top.

Only when Litecoin tops is at the top. Yeah, there you go. And we understand people, and they feel a lot of people bring in narratives that they think are true. They haven't really researched them, just things that we've people, you know, and they feel they a lot of people bring in narratives that they think are true. They haven't really researched them, you know, just things that we've repeated over and over throughout the cycles. But, you know, again, I don't worry about that kind of stuff. I look at the charts and say, well, here's what I'm looking at.

Here's what the charts are saying to me. And that's what I do. And it works out pretty damn well. So people are talking about Tao here i've seen that uh i've got this on a movement up here minimum 1056 secondary target at 1255 so uh just kind of looking for a breakout here above what is this 734 here uh we we coming in sideways between the pivot and the r1 we're you know kind of pulled back to previous support here We're getting these dojis. It looks like it wants to rally. We've got reset down here and oversold on the Daily Stoke RSI. RSI remains bullish above neutral.

I mean, everything says it wants to go up further. So I think we've got further on that. It looks good to me. And by the way, that's just the wave three. So we'll get the wave three, we'll get a wave four, and then we'll get a wave five from there. I've also got... Yeah, go ahead.

Do it. I keep seeing a lot about Tao. It's one of those that I kind of missed, but socially I can tell there's a lot of engagement on it and interest, yeah. Yeah, exactly, exactly. I've got this I-M-G-N-A-I. I don't know, maybe it'sgna i i don't know maybe it's imagine ai i don't know um i see i have no clue i have no clue uh but the chart looks pretty decent it looks like we've got four is done or four sprinting a triangle here uh so looking for five of three up here at about 0.07162 pull back for a wave four right back around kind of where we're at down here

and then wave five up there at 0.09550 so you know from now it'll get you basically 100 from where we're at here these are not time-based by the way for those of you looking here i don't do time-based i just give you the levels here just kind of space them out a bit so they're easy to see but yeah so um i think that one's looking uh pretty good there you know we're just about to break into an all-time high here so we had this high all time high back here in November so yeah so we're getting ready to break out on that um and and you know this is just this local count here Generally, what I'll do is I'll take this kind of pullback here on a target there. Almost like what you would do with a cup and handle almost.

It's just a target based on the pullback here. But instead of doing 100%, I look at the 1618. So that gives us a 14 cent kind of target up there as well and potentially further. So I think it looks good overall. Get a little pullback here, probably finishing up this sideways and then higher there. What else do I got here?

I've got MPL USD again. I don't know what it does. Well, actually, I've had Sid Powell from Maple on quite a few times and they're really actually awesome. So there you go. All right, so you know what it does. Okay, so there. Scott knows what it does. Nothing matters, but I do. Yeah. Tokenizing

real world assets. Yeah. Very cool stuff. Go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. So I like it. You know, we got the wedge here. We got the nice break of the wedge, you know, rallied up through the pivot here on the daily, all the way up to the R3, pull back the R1. Ultimately, once we can get this breakout above, what is this, 1877 here, I'm looking at 2755 and then 3620. Those are my local targets on that right now. Well, they had a great accumulation period here from February 6th through the breakout here on about November 3rd. Yeah.

So this was last year. Great long accumulation period here. You got to jump across the Creek here, which is just your breakout, you know, right in this area through your resistance. Looks good. You know, you got basically your backup here looking to head further. I like it a lot. And let me see here. What else we got? No, not that one. FTM here. here uh ftm is another one i keep getting asked a lot about um again another great accumulation period going on here uh back here from november of 2022 and we're just now breaking out up here i've got a wave three target minimally up at around two dollars and eleven and a half cents right now. And that's a minimal target guys, you know, that could overextend here on the way heading up, but that would give us about five waves up around the swing high,

all time high there, which is usually what we look for in that first kind of sub wave up. So yeah, I think, well, that would be five of three here to get us up there. It's bigger. I'm struggling to find it looks really good yeah i'm just struggling to find the ones that are lagging like everything looks now it's like breakout retest you know it's very hard to find anything that's still finding a base or accumulation anymore this market is yeah you gotta the train's left the station yeah yeah if you're a trader now you know it was easy well see here's the thing it was easy before when they were all setting up like that. If your emotions didn't get in there and keep you from doing it, right? The setup was easy. Now your emotions are going to make it difficult because

it's like, oh God, well, what if it's topped out? What if I buy the top and it drops back on me, right? I made a whole Twitter post about that. And I ranted about that, about how we talked about it yesterday. Bull markets are much more stressful than bear markets because you have to actively make decisions. It's easy to slowly buy and accumulate with whatever you have in the bear market and have conviction it's going to go back up. Now you're always fearful that that paper number at the top of your portfolio is the very top and you've missed it. And it's very hard. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So yeah. Anyway, I agree with you man it is it's tough it's tough it is people people think everybody becomes everybody's a genius in a bull market well they're a genius

saying price is going to go up they're not a genius trying to trade it most people are still going to be lucky if they break even after a bull market um which is sad but it's the truth you know so yeah yeah absolutely you got anything else no no I see a question here somebody's asking about Link and they said um it hasn't it just moved first yeah exactly exactly Link's still going guys um I I wouldn't be unhappy with Link so um you know it's one that I've shown many times before. We talked about it being a buy there on that dip, $4 or $5 area. Man.

Let me show something really quick. I'm trying to navigate this tiny computer. This is Injective, guys, right? So Injective, like Link, was one of the first movers of this market ahead of everything else, ahead of meme coins, ahead of nonsense.

And it topped, quote unquote, topped here in December. So three months ago, and it's basically just reaccumulated for three months. And I had people saying, yeah, Injective is one of your biggest positions. It's so boring now. What's going on? Well, now it's made a new all-time high and it's in blue sky breakout. Guys, after these huge moves like a link, you could take profit at the top of that move, move those assets somewhere else that you think has more. But just because it's topped and accumulated for a while does not mean that the top is in and that you should exit the market. You just need to be a little bit patient. It can't go up every single day. Exactly. Exactly. But patience, that's the

key word. As human beings, we're emotional. It's tough, man. It's tough to be patient, right? Especially if you don't have any practice doing it, not just in trading, we're emotional. It's tough, man. It's tough to be patient, right? Especially if you don't have any practice doing it, not just in trading, but in life. We're always impatient and everything. Social media doesn't help. We want information instantly. We want five second clips now. And it makes trading very difficult, guys. One of the best skills. And you're watching people make thousand X a day gains, which is probably fake on X, which you never saw in the past. You were happy with your 10% a year when I was growing up, you know? Oh yeah. We talked about that a lot when, when,

when I first started TWC there, how man we would have loved in stocks. You know, we were, if you're getting 10, 12% a year, you're like, yeah, I'm killing it. Now, if you haven't done it in an hour, you're literally pissed and asking influencers if you should exit. It's unbelievable. Exactly. Exactly. It's sad. It's sad. But hey guys, listen, if you're going to trade, honestly, one of the biggest things you can work on is patience. It really is. Especially when you're in a bull market, you're going to have pullbacks. You're going to have reaccumulation

periods. It's going to get boring. Go get a hobby. Stop, stop, stop trading out of, out of whatever you have thinking you're going to get something out because it's popping. And then you jump, you know, jump in on that at the top. And then you're, what you're holding is it's falling down and you're losing money. And then what you were in originally, and you know, finally starts taking off. Yeah. Story as old as time, I guess, right there. Yeah, man. All right, Chris, thank you so much. Everybody follow Texas West capital. I see Fibo Swann and your buddy over here. Good morning. You guys have a whole bunch of new stuff going on, by the way, right? Oh, yeah, man.

We've got we just released a new monthly subscription product. So we do go. We do our group coaching for three, six or 12 months. But if you if you're interested more on doing it on your own and you get one group coach session a month and whatever, and all our education, everything, and amazing community, you can jump on that. And that's our C3 Charts Forces Community subscription. And that's just a monthly thing, $97 a month. So yeah.

Awesome, man. Guys, you should all absolutely check that out. Chris, thank you as always for all the alpha. Oh, go ahead. And real quick, you can jump on Fibbo's Threshold Theory as well over there at members.texaswestcapital.com. Nice. I like that you got him in there since he's over here always. And he said, as Guns N' Roses said it best, patience. Yeah. Awesome. All right. All

right, man. Thank you, Chris. Guys, I'm going to let you go, Chris, say a few more things. All right, guys. So listen, obviously we had the alpha show that's going to be every night at 9 PM Eastern standard time. I know it's hard to get used to looking at a different, more handsome face on the channel, but that is Joe. And to be showing up in the middle of the night, I think for a lot of you, but I highly suggest you watch that back today. I am still doing my afternoon show with WIC, the trading alpha, of course. So if you like Chris's trading alpha, I got more trading alpha this afternoon, which should be amazing. And finally, before I go, we got to just do this one more time. We have to. We're going to do it on the way out. If it works, it's not working now, is it? Is it working for you guys? Can you see it? It's not working. Dang, I was going to play the little bubble track again. Maybe you guys see it, but I don't see it.

If it is working, it's not working for me. Oh, well, guys, that was an amazing show. We had Matt Hogan, James Butterfield, and Chris. Thank you to all of them. I will see you guys on Spaces in 20 minutes. And then this afternoon, 3.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time for Trading Album.