The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Holds STRONG as Peace Talks Collapse - What Happens Next?

Episode Date: April 20, 2026

Global tensions are escalating fast, with conflict in the Middle East now threatening one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world. Oil markets are on edge, geopolitical risk is rising, and yet—stocks continue to rally at one of the fastest paces in decades. So what’s really going on? In this stream, we break down the disconnect between rising global instability and bullish market behavior, the growing risks in energy, debt, and liquidity, and why some experts are warning of a potential breaking point ahead. Are markets pricing this in—or completely ignoring it? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bitcoin is holding strong at $75,000, even as peace talks are seemingly falling apart in Iran. Every day we have a new headline that conflicts with the headline we saw yesterday. Hell, every hour we seem to have a headline that conflicts with the headlines we saw just an hour ago. But with all of that happening, as I said, Bitcoin's still strong and markets still relatively resilient. Will that remain? I don't know, but it's a conversation worth having today with Mike McGlone, James Lavish, and Dave Weissberger. on vacation. We've got Peter Cheers standing in. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday and welcome to the show. Macro Monday, as you know,

is the best hour of the week. That's not my opinion. That's actually a fact. I saw it on Wikipedia. I think we got Mike, we got James, and we got Peter here. Peter, I was going to say, you know, when you popped on, you looked different today, Dave. But Dave is trouncing around Italy with his wife on vacation, so we're going to let him be and not get his blood pressure up on a Monday. We know that this sets the tone for his entire week. I don't even know where to start, gentlemen, so we're just going to start at the morning meeting and take it from there, Mike. Yes, we'll start with Anna. She came out, pointed out retail sales is probably the significant data this week, expecting to be up 1.2%. That's actually below consensus. Consensus is 1.4%

all by gasoline. And she said auto sales is part of it, which she finds surprising typically for this kind of environment but didn't really put in a good reason why. The control group, which was really lagging before the oil shock, is expected to be two-tenths, which is basically ex-oil and a lot of stuff like that. She said consumers were actually getting squeezed and falling behind on payments and things before the issue with spiking energy prices. The risks of the Iran oil shack on consumption is really the key theme for her is about the top 20% of households, but if you look at the stock market, it's not a problem so far. And her key theme was, as long as the stock market mechanism is not adjusting inflation and consumption will stay higher, as you know, that's been my theme for a while.

She talked a little bit about Warsh today, but Ira Jersey had some more significant comments about Warsh's testimony tomorrow, expects it to be somewhat dovish. He says, he thinks the 10-year note's not going to really break out of a range for quite. a while. Rail even still made somewhat high despite the breakdown in crude oil. Chris Kane, our equity strategies came and pointed out things that I think we've seen a lot before. It's this 10 to 12 day return we have had in the stock market is the most in about 100 years. And it rarely happens outside of bear markets. We know sharpest rallies usually happen in bare markets. And typically typically from deep below 200-day moving average, this was just kind of a normal one. So he's a bit, And he didn't point out typically when these things happen in the next period afterwards,

the usually market continues to trade well. And then he pointed out the halo, the trend, a heavy asset, low obsolescence trend. You expect that's going to continue beating capital light kind of stocks. And that was really it. And then I jumped on and pointed out how the number one bull market I see in commodities is elasticity. And that is what you saw in natural gas here. it's down 20% on a year of her basis because it was up 100% beginning year. I fully expect that to happen to crude oil.

So I reiterated my call that WTI Crudeau might get to $40 a barrel in 4Q, just following what natural gas did because it went up too much. And the key theme for that is what does Mr. Trump want? It's a normal cycle. And the key prerequisite for that is the stock market going down, which it's not doing right now. So maybe that'll cover my C-Y Amy. I'm not trying to do that.

I'm just pointed out this is what typically happens in markets. And then I wrote up in all the other ones I've been looking at. They had good resistance in Bitcoin around 75. I think that's still significant here. Good resistance in copper on six. Still significant there. No, those are. And then you look at silver and gold and even pretty good pumps we've had in soybeans and corn.

They've all have these cycles that I think are still heading lower and are incomplete. So that's probably good enough for me. Back to you. Okay, so markets can't go down. It's science. They've genetically programmed them with modified ingredients to never go down. You mentioned it, and I want to bring it up here because I had this pegged. S&P 500 rebound rally is now the fastest in almost 45 years.

We take a look at this chart of S&P 500 fast-paced weakness to strength rallies going back to the 1950s. Here we have number two, right? Mike, we talked about this on Market Mavericks last week. We basically had a 10% drop in the S&P, and I think it took about 10 days to not only come back to where it started, but then to break it and make an all-time high. By some metric, I looked at that and it appeared to be the fastest V-shaped recovery in history, depending on how you look at it. I joke here, Peter James, you know, either, but it seems like nothing in the world can make this go down. I mean, Peter, you and I talked the other day, right? We don't have any more clarity.

This was markets rallying back on, you know, peace talks and the end of a war. The headlines every minute are different. Yeah, and it started on Friday mornings, you know, big rally. And it was, you know, one of the Bloomberg reporters that supposedly called Trump and Trump said, oh, yeah, we're near a deal. We're getting the uranium. And you kind of kept these headlines all throughout the day. There was zero confirmation from Iran.

You've had a sloppy weekend. And yet you can just tell. No one wants to sell anything, right? Everyone's now prepared for the next positive headline. NASDA actually probably be down one, one and a half percent. down what a third of a percent or something right now. I think that one, we're running out of room to rally anyways. We solved software last week.

We solved, you know, private credit last week. We solved the war last week. And markets respond to that. And I don't think any of those are really solved. Maybe the war is close, but even that doesn't look like it's close right now. James, I mean, this is just wild. I think everybody realizes that, you know, whether you want to call it taco or you want to just call it first principles of the timing of midterms coming up this this war is not going to drag

on i mean it's just not going to they're going to figure out a way to get to a resolution one way or another all trump wants to do is he in my opinion is he just wants to have a demonstrated win and if he can have a demonstrated win coming out of this conflict that you know he started then then he'll be satisfied and he'll declare a peace treaty or whatever they want to call it. And, you know, the markets are just, they're sniffing that out. They know that he does not want to destroy the economic value of the market. You know, this is where I think Mike and I differed last week when I said, you know, the market is not the economy.

And what I meant was that by that was that it doesn't show you everything that's going on the economy when you just look at the S&P. especially when you have such heavy rotation, as Peter just kind of alluded to, when you have heavy rotation of one sector to another and you've got money just moving around. That's one part of it. The second part of is he's got a casehaked economy that we keep talking about. And so, yeah, the market is the economy in the sense that it needs to stay high for us to avoid a recession, right?

and that is clear. Trump talks about the market nonstop, and he hasn't this term as much, but the first term, you remember, it's almost every single press conference he was talking about the market. And so it is very heavy on his mind. You've got so many factors that are involved here, Scott,

that are way above all of our pay grades, and there's so many intricacies of geopolitical conflicts that it's hard for us to parse it out. But when you just boil everything down to what does the one person who is leading this charge want, what he wants to be successful in the midterms, because that's going to cement his legacy. And if he doesn't, then that's going to cement his legacy the wrong way. And it's going to be a difficult hill for him to climb up for the last two years of his presidency. So I believe that that's what he wants. And I think the markets already sniffed that out. They're like, why would he, it doesn't make any sense for him to continue on this.

Keep oil prices high. Keep inflation high. Drive a great swath of the economy, of the, of the demographic against him. It doesn't make any sense. But that's what people are seeing. That's what you're seeing in the market. It's just reflecting that back to us. It's interesting because obviously it implies that he's just talking the markets up and down, right?

You see a certain amount of retracement, and he sends a strategic truth, social message. And you saw, did you see that meme from the Mad Men meme where John Hamm is standing there in front of the board? And he's like, he's like, you know, his marketing idea, which is peace, but only during market hours. So it's perfect. Right. And here's the question, I guess, is market is just people, right? Why does it work? like how when you sniff enough bullshit like at what point do you just say i'm not going to react to

a headline or maybe it's exactly the point you made it's not the headline it's the fact that you know he's going to do anything humanly possible to talk the markets back up or move the markets back up is that what it is yeah i mean it's not taco it's it's his this is how he he has negotiated everything in his life you know it's it's it's do or die it's i'm going to fire you or else It's like it's just way, way, way over the top. He says things that you can't even imagine that you would say if you were a president. He types things into, like I can't believe some of the stuff they let him post. It's just incredible.

So, but, you know, unfortunately, it's becoming the thing where the market is saying he's crying wolf in effect. And that's the taco meme of Trump always chickens out. It's not that. I don't think it has to do with him checking it out. I think it has to do with he. He moves the marker so far out of range of what people think is reasonable that when it comes back into range, he wins and people are like, yeah, he didn't get what he wanted. He's like, I got plenty, you know?

Yeah. So far in the distance that the entire negotiation shifts. Exactly. Exactly. It's like the negotiation is I'm going to wipe an entire civilization off the planet. Okay. Okay. That's that's one end of the negotiation.

And then when he doesn't get that, you know, like, it's like, so you're somewhere in way over here in reasonable land. And you're like, yeah, but I still won. So it's kind of, yeah, I'm not saying that it's a reasonable approach to negotiation, but that's what I believe he's doing. So sorry, Peter, go ahead. Yeah, no, the only other thing I would add, I think this also continues what we've seen pretty much all year and maybe slightly longer is when people get long, something, whatever, that inexplicably goes down. When people get caught short, you've had massive rotations, right? everyone loves software, boom, boom, boom, keep selling off. Finally, everyone hated software,

rebound. So I think a lot of the market's very mechanical. You've got zero data expiration options. You have these things that kind of force the issue. So I feel you see all these rotations and the only thing you can kind of look back in hindsight to say, oh yeah, it was just clear. Everyone was bullish this and something happened to snap that

and it's very punishing. I think that hedge funds and a lot of the risk management firms that really run tight stop losses are contributing to this volatility, right? So they put on position and put on position It starts going against them and they get forced to cover out. People pile in. So I think all these moves, both directions tend to be amplified.

It is slightly weird to me that this time around might be the first time I can really remember where the up moves seem more amplified than the down moves. Normally we kind of take that elevator down and crawl back up. This has been a little bit opposite. We kind of slowly dragged down and then took the elevator up. To me, I think this is all this kind of full liquidity where it's all this algal driven and it doesn't really capture the leveraged ETFs and these things, which really just make every move a bit more exaggerated and very painful if you're on the wrong side of it.

Yeah. We've been conditioned to the market has been absolutely conditioned to do not be caught short or do not be caught without a position. Because if you did that in 2020, you lost a lot of opportunity because that V-shaped recovery was so severe. It was so violent that by the time you had Ackman on the TV crying for more liquidity, it was already happening. It was like it was so fast that you couldn't be caught without positions. And so I think that's what we've been conditioned to. This is where your point of the market is never allowed to go down again. It's kind of the truth.

It's just will it? Of course it will. But the recovery we've been conditioned to learn is that the recovery will be pretty quick. So you can't be left without holding something. Mike, I was going to say, now is the time when you tell us that all those things Peter just described are the sign of top and end times. Well, I got a lot. I want to share a few screens. There's a lot that James said and Peter said, I can piggyback on.

The key theme is right away is we have, we're living through the most substantial president in U.S. history. And to, like the first book I read when before he just got elected was at work with ourselves where General McMaster. He predicted exactly what happened. He's going to get nothing but loyalists. Yes, sir. We'll just do what you say. And that's what's happening. But the key thing that James said is, what does he want for midterms?

You got to look at where the puck's going in WTI crude oil future. I look at the December future. It's going to, it's the big one. It's the one that matters. It's going to be front month right before elections. It's at $74 dollars a barrel. I fully expected to be $20, $50 or even lower by midterms. What does he want?

What does he need? Does he have the ability to do that? I just published that today. If prices don't go lower, that excess surplus of U.S. crude oil, liquid fuels and supply versus demand in U.S. Canada, it's around $8 million barrels a day. It's going to $10 million. It's a shift over to what's happening in the world. Yeah, the Gulf's a problem.

The market's looking at the Gulf is a bit of the battle of the bulge. I think James and Peter both nailed that. But this is now the key theme is unless something happened, with price to offset that, we're going to have a big problem. I just pointed out here. Here's WTI crude oil. This, you can go back to 2007, almost 20 years. It just had a pop above 100.

What's the key theme in WT crude oil? Every time it goes above 100, we bring on that more supply, and this is what's happening. This simple regression, U.S. and Canada supplied demand. It's on 8. It's going to 10. It's just a matter of time. But this is the one key theme that has to, I think, my key theme for prices to go back to 40, which is a normal cycle.

We're at right now at 2.4 times GDP. Now, in this measure, I'm using it, 2.4 stock market cap the GDP. That's got to keep going up. Crudel's going to even, you know, typically has been going down in the environment. When that does drop at some point, that's going to be my catalyst.

I want to point it's already happened this year. Natural gas this year was up 100% and now it's down 20%. It's a big green, big red, quarterly candle. And you just look over at Crudel. It looks like it just peaked at about 100 bucks. That's steady elasticity.

I'm talking about. It's the most significant bull market commodities. And you get it every time I go out to the corn bill, too. You look at corn. Corn. Corn is now covers almost up to 15% of gasoline consumption in this country through ethanol. And then we're trying to bring more bile fuels for diesel. Corn does not care about this rally in crude oil, which means crude oil maybe should and just go back to what it normally does. Or will corn go up? That's just the key thing people on talking about. It's not just corn. It's soybeans. Even copper's had a problem. And this is a one key theme that I want to point out. And it's a key measure that I've been pointed out with James is I do get the whole bias towards stuff that's got to go up in an inflationary environment. But you get to a certain point. All I do is take care is you take the Bloomberg Treasury total return on hedge index. You divide by gold. It's the lowest since 1982. So if you're buying gold and selling treasures here, you're doing it at a 44-year extreme.

Probably best to do that. I just point out not to do it. I just point out one key. I'm going back 100 years on this. chart s mp 500 divided by gdp it's the highest since 1928 in the way down bitcoin just led the way i think it's that's the problem i think it's going to lead the way back down and we're at that key level 75 remember that was 95 early in there now we're 75 it's still underforming beta and here's the key thing i've been wrong on so far this year and this is just we've never had this is a measure of

volatility 180 day volatility on gold it's the highest since 2009 running 29 percent 180 the volatility in the NASDA. Maybe that just bought them from the lowest level since 2008. But this is the key thing I've been wrong on. This is starting to go up. It's just we've never had this kind of spike in gold and oil volatility without a trickling of stock market. We all know stock markets can't go down. But that's my key thing is I keep looking at. If it can't, then why can't Bitcoin's got to stay above 75? Copper's got to stay above six. And the last one, silver, should stay above 85. And they're not.

They're hovering at those levels right now. Let's see if they can do it. Yeah, we keep coming back to the, what is it different this time because of what you're talking about with U.S. treasuries and gold being the wrong trade. But the reality is what central bank, what large investor, what institution wants to own treasuries rather than gold? Who wants to own duration? Nobody wants their own duration here. You know that they're structurally, that there's no option but for long. term structural inflation. That is the word structural. Like that is where we are. It's not about it's being different. It's where we are in this great experiment of fiat. And we're so far down the

road on this that now you've got you've got emergency measures on every single corner about, you know, treasuries and liquidity and liquidity coming from the Fed, liquidity coming from the U.S. Treasury, like make sure that this market stays held. Like we've got to keep it going. And so if you're any kind of investor, and I'm not saying central banks are, you know, they're tremendous investors, but they know what they hold. And do they want to be holding U.S. treasuries long term? Well, we're clearly seeing the answer is no. And so that's why they've been buying gold. So the question is, do you want to be holding something that you think that people are going to continue buying, whether it's central banks or its institutions. And institutions don't,

by the way, own that much gold yet. Funny enough, it's not like it's a huge allocation across the board. It's not. So this is just something that is a structural, it's not a trade. It's a structural balance. And where do you want to be, where do you want to be sitting long term? Do you really want to be sitting in U.S. Treasuries? I hear you want to trade in that maybe the interest rates coming in pretty quickly because of exactly what you said. And if we have a roll over in the economy, you know, if inflation does come way back down and you're, you don't need to be paid that long term rate in order to, you know, have a real return in long term paper, maybe. But the reality is that I wouldn't want to be holding U.S. Treasury's long term if I'm an institution for two reasons.

especially not at Central Bank. A central bank, they could be seized or they could be frozen. So that's not something I want to be holding. If I'm not a perfect ally with the U.S., and which we've seen, there is no perfect ally with the U.S. right now. Not with Trump in office. He could pull the switch on anybody, including anybody in Europe,

which we're watching kind of real time. So do you want to be a central bank holding U.S. treasuries, knowing that if you're out of favor with the U.S., They may just, you know, lock up your supply and your liquidity. No, you don't want to do that. Do you want to hold U.S. treasuries if you're a long-term institution? Like, if you're a pension fund trying to match what your obligations are long-term, do you want to be holding 20-year, 30-year treasuries?

No, that's not a really good plan. Now, they have to in some instances, but it's not a great, the math doesn't work out for you. So where do, like, how are you going to deal with this? Well, gold is a pretty good option and people are starting to trickle in there. I don't think that gold is at its structural high. And then the Bitcoin conversation is back again, you know, Bitcoin is marching to its own beat here. It is not leading anything at this point. Is it part of the risk asset structure still?

I believe it is. It's acting like it is. but it's also acting on its own. It's not, it hasn't been the tip of the risk spear here. In fact, when the, when we had conflict breakout and or when this war began back in March, the first thing it happened is gold repriced, not Bitcoin. Bitcoin had already repriced. And it had no idea we were going to war with Iran.

It had, it was something completely different. And it was a de-leveraging event that started in October. So that's my, you know, that's my, you know, that's my. my kind of lens and I'm looking at all of this through. And that's why this is where we come to a disagreement kind of weekly here. And, you know, we, we see the world in the same way in so many ways. But this is the point where we differ, where I just don't see that there's a path for the treasury and the Fed to take that's any different than what we saw in the great financial crisis are 2020. And this time it's going to be worse. Peter, I asked you last week, but,

Where do you stand on Bitcoin right now? I know the answer, but I'm going to let the new here. I think it's got a chance to break above this. I think people are starting to look at it. Things are calming down. You make some progress. But again, it feels like it's no longer, as you pointed out, no longer the tip of the spear, right?

People are looking at it and like, okay, can we get comfortable with this? As you mentioned, I think, you know, just before the show started, Sailor's been buying more of this. I think it can go higher. So I'm kind of keeping an eye on that as a potential for breakout. because to be honest, it's underperform at some of these other assets. And having said that, I think the one thing Mark brought up is people keep talking about the K-shaped economy.

I'm much more talking about the working poor. And people kind of looked at me all weird when we're talking about the working poor because everything has kind of been indoctrated to the K-shaped economy. And K-shaped, you know, seems some are doing well, some are doing poorly or going up or down. And my sense is what's happening is this affordability crisis is working its way up the economic food chain, that people making whatever the number was, 50, 60 grand were struggling to make ends meet. People now making 100 grand are struggling to make ends meet. So this affordability crisis has kind of been moving up and it's making everyone kind of this working poor where you have little or no money left at the end of each month just to keep this lifestyle that you thought

wasn't lavish, that it was fairly sustainable. And I think that's a little bit different. It's funny. I was on Schwab network and talking to someone there, indeed.com person, I believe the CEO said, over 20% of people on Indeed.com making 100 grand are doing side gigs. So like this economy, I think that's where the affordability pressure is. It's moving up and it's not this case shape, which really implies me people are going up or down. This is kind of the affordability is inching its way up and it's hitting more and more people. And that with all the jobs losses that are you're starting to see, especially these kind of white collar job losses,

I'm a little bit nervous about the economy regardless of anything else that plays out. And so maybe that's where you could get the sort of thing where we take a breath, of relief, oh, great, we're done with this war. And then you get back to economic data, you see pricing, you see where consumers are, and then we get a little bit of a pullback from that. Peter, I would agree with you on the case. The middle class is getting eaten away here. And we've been watching it for years. And if you believe that CPI is just 25% from 2020, you know, you're not really paying attention. It's not true. Or you're not paying attention to your own bills. I mean, it's insane how much insurance and, you know, other costs have gone up. So health

insurance, car insurance, house insurance, whatever it is. So the K-shape to me is there's just two different economies. And I agree with you. I think that the middle class is getting eaten away and more of the middle class is falling into that lower demographic of struggle than is graduating to that upper demographic of, you know, what we call the boomer generation, which is just enjoying the fruits of buying, you know, a house back in 1963 for half a pickle and a bag of corn chips, you know, but, and now it's worth millions. So, you know, it's a completely different world for them. And, and it's not just their age. It's people who own assets. It's people who have owned assets for the last five years that have done okay. You know, if you made it through the great financial

a crisis and you actually had some assets on your book, whether it's gold or stocks or, you know, IRA or 401k or a house or a profitable business, whatever it is, then you've done okay. But otherwise, man, you've been struggling to keep up. And that's just the reality. And that's the reality that Trump is fighting against. And he's saying that he's for the every person. But the reality is that the stock market is not helping the everyday person. It's helping, you know, that upper leg of the K.

And that's just, and unfortunately, we're just, we just keep feeding this engine. And we're not going to stop it. You know, it's not like we're going to get some sort of great austerity plan out of Congress someday. I mean, Jesus, every single time we get to the debt limit, we have a short-term crisis. They pretend to fight about it, and then they raise a limit. It's systematic. It's almost every two or three years now.

So, I mean, we've got to be coming up. I think all politicians love the debt ceiling because it gives them a reason to yell, scream, and then collect more money for themselves. It's been insane. Right. And so when you have people who are hard right or hard left, it's like, you guys, man, you're not really seeing the big picture.

The big picture is they're all in this club together. They don't care what's happening down, you know, on Main Street. They truly don't. You know, there may be a few people who have your idealistic. that go into Congress, that think they're going to change the world. But the reality is, it's like we were, like I've described before. I mean, in hockey, we would be out there just bashing each other's heads in. But afterwards, you know, during the game, then afterwards,

we'd all be at the pub or the bar and having beers together and high-fiving. Because, you know, it's still any way you cut it, it's still kind of a show. And so it's the same thing up there, man. They're high-fiving each other in chambers when the cameras aren't on. They don't care. They're all protecting each other. And so they're just trying to make sure that they get reelected. And that's the problem that we have in this country.

The system is not set up in a way that's going to benefit everybody. It's going to benefit whoever it's going to help those people get reelected. And it doesn't matter what side they're on. You think that anybody's going to get arrested for the fraud in Minnesota or L.A. or, you know, like, you think that anybody. I forgot about that. That's so, like, last month. You think anybody's going to get arrested for Epstein?

Like, anybody's going to get, like, no, no. They're all protected, you know, they all have information on each other, whatever it is, and they're all protected. And so we're left to deal with it. And the way to deal with it for us is, like you just described, Peter, is be careful that you don't slide too far down that lower leg of the K. because you're not going to have the ability to get out of it. And, you know, if we do have a crisis here,

and we've got another big, huge print that comes down the line, you know, just another fire hose of liquidity, it's going to be difficult for people. And so you just got to be careful. Can you be hedged? Yes. You know, do I think that Mike's scenario of a market down draft is real? Yeah, I do.

I think it's a serious consideration. But do I think you should pull all of your money out of the market and sit in T bills and wait for it? No, I think you got to be careful about that. You have to remain exposed in some way. You know, one of the things you can do is you can be diversified. Another thing you can do is you can have hedges on, which is what we do. So, you know, but you can't just be out of the market. I think that would be dangerous.

Mike, there's a lot there to unpack, but I wanted to ask you a very specific question going back to Bitcoin. You've kind of been alongside a lot of people saying 74, 75 is a line in the sand. obviously we're trading right at it. I'm just wondering for you, we're trading at 75, we got above it. We're sort of, I guess you could say it's resistance or support when we're trading right on it. If we pop up to 80 or 78, 79 and hold there for a week or two, does it change your view? Not really. I got a classic, which show another screen, a classic sign I'll be right.

Again, I just saw a few people reiterate in their view that I'm retarded. The things mean I said, and I said, you know, from a hundred was going to drop a zero. I was like, thank you. Should he understand a person who has four brothers, four sons, and there's a father and son of a U.S. Marine, that's just a big hug in love. And I'd love to give you a reciprocal hug in love. And I've got to show you a chart. It's a key thing.

If you're bullish, any cryptos, most of them, certainly space, certainly the small caps, large cast Bitcoin, you have to have one prerequisite for a market to go up. Stock market has to go up, virtually guaranteed. This is what's people are stuck in that glory days this week. And I had to say to it on national TV when I remember Bruce Springsteen song. They keep thinking of what's happened. It's over.

The trade is over. Mr. Trump peaked it. Thank you very much, but it's not going to get better than that major shift from, you know, as they say, there's no zeal like a convert. He shifted. That put in the peak. And this is like to show you here. So we're at 75 right now. Again, I view this is, as I viewed, you know, early in the year, anything near 100 was a spot to sell.

We got to, what, 96? Now, this is just the next level. Stay above that. But the key thing I want to show you is it's stuck there. 75 was right about where to put that. peak after ETS and I thought it was going to end and then Mr. Trump got elected. But here's S&P 500. It's got to go up for Bitcoin to go up.

And it just made a new high. And Bitcoin's barely getting above 75. You see, that's just simple pattern recognition analysis. It comes down this performance of this asset socks since 2021. And most normally since versus a stock market and most normally since ETS from launch. And I just point out, look at the small camps. Why do I look at small camps? This is just the market vector's 100 cap index because it shows the whole space.

Bitcoin's great, but it's one, it's beta amongst numerous assets. Now, there's just so much in that space. As a commodity guy, just look at there's unlimited supply of cryptos. And I look at this market has been going down, Bloomberg Galaxy Crypti, and the crypto index has been going down since $20. Do you say Bitcoin is beta to the crypto space? Of course. Let me give you the example. That's absolutely incorrect.

That's not the exact opposite. Let me explain. Let me explain. So S&P 500 is beta everything. Crude oil is beta to energy and all commodities. Corn is beta to agriculture and copper and gold. Gold is basically beta to metals. I can prove that historically.

But if Bitcoin goes up 10%, most cryptos go up. If Bitcoin goes down 10%, most cryptos go down. So to me, my view, and you can dispute all one, is Bitcoin is beta to cryptos. Yeah, but they go down more. If Bitcoin goes down 10%, crypto's quote-unquote, exactly, it's the beta. So Bitcoin is not beta to them. It is their beta, meaning they have to measure versus Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's a stable standard beta. So if you're Dogecoin and Bitcoin's up 10% and you only have 5%, that's a problem. You have to keep track in a volatility adjusted basis to beta. I mean, it's number one. So it's absolutely and it's beta in the space. So I just want to finish my key theme is we have the high. highest volatility of Bitcoin versus other cryptos, most minority small camps ever. Just makes sense.

The space has unlimited supply. I think it's peak. And if stock market goes up, you might be okay. If stock market goes down, you're going to lose probably two to three times on a volatility adjusted basis. The argument that Bitcoin needs the stock market to go up to go up, hasn't that been invalidated by the fact that Bitcoin went down while the stock market went up for the past six months?

Okay. On the year, Bitcoin's down 14%. S&B 500's up 4%. It's still failing. Sure, it got a bounce. It was down six months in a row, got to that great support level. I saw you buying it around 64 or so. Now we've bounced to 75.

So it's just bounce from an oversold level. And I point out, well, the rest of the space is still wagging. Maybe some of them are doing okay. So that's my point. You want uncorrelated assets in your portfolio, and it's a really convenient narrative to only say Bitcoin is correlated in one direction, right? And I hear it all the time. I'm not saying specifically from you, but the beauty of an uncorrelated asset is sometimes when everything else goes down, your thing goes up, your thing goes

down. People hate it when that happens, but it actually defines the correlation that improves the sharp ratio of your portfolio to have something, even if it's five percent, that will be something different because there will be times when everything else goes down and your thing goes up, right? And so like, I don't see how right now we can say that Bitcoin's either leading or trailing. when the stock market has made a new all-time high and Bitcoin's tied nothing. It's lagging. It's the leading indicator that started lagging last year. Let's remember it move to all-time highs?

Let's remember the- Isn't it leading the unknown move of the SMP down that hasn't happened yet? That's what I don't understand. We'll see. That's my point earlier on. We've never had this kind of volatility high-velocity picks up, pickups in volatility and gold, most of that last year and this year, and crude oil without trickling up to stock market. Now, we still haven't had that. Been wrong on that.

But Bitcoin is still down. It's back to the first resistance. But remember the essence of money management. You just pointed out, it's okay to have high volatility. As long as you have negative correlation, a comprehensive portfolio. That's the lose-lose of Bitcoin. Since ETSs were launched, I pointed out, it has a much higher volatility than S&P 500. And it trades about the same or less.

It's a poor and is a very high correlation. That's poor. So, let me example. How that happened, these commodities was on home published like in 2003. Goldman Sachs jumped on board. A lot of institutions jumped on that trade, jumped in. And the essence was equity-like returns with very lower negative correlations of stock market. What happens the minute the institutions jumped on?

Poof, the trade was over. What happened when the ETF's launching in Bitcoin, poof, the trade's over. I'd still pointing out the trade is over. Well, I mean, it went from 40 to 126 when the ETF's launched. But, yeah, I do think that that was ETF momentum. Listen, I actually agree with most of what you're saying. I just think definitionally we have to be very careful about lead and lag and bull and bear because it lines up on certain timeframes and certainly not on others.

I really wish that Bitcoin had made a V-shaped recovery to 130,000 this week. And then it was truly the stock market. I just don't see what's happened. I mean, James, I know where you stand on this. I mean, Peter, how do you kind of view this before James jumps in? You know, I think I really don't pay attention to anything other than maybe Eith, Salana. I just feel like the rest are kind of noise at this point. I don't think that's how now 99% of people approach this market, which is why I think

the unlimited supply of crypto is becoming less important. Go ahead. Yeah, that could be. So again, I focus on kind of what I think are the bigger ones, anything that might benefit if we move towards, you know, some sort of stable coin and actually start getting that progress. So, again, it feels like a market that has been front run so often by people expecting the next wave of liquidity only to be disappointed. Like that to me, the one issue I still face at this is who's really going to get convinced now that Bitcoin is the way of the future? If you're not already in Bitcoin and haven't already ramped up, it feels like it's getting harder and harder to convince people that you need to be in this.

And, you know, you've watched the narrative switch and now the last narrative seems to be scarcity, right? And it's there. Again, I don't, I'm still slightly bullish and I think we can break through. I want to maybe see us go through. But having said that, I don't see this huge rush of people saying, I really need to be in Bitcoin right now. I just feel like it's kind of lost that little bit of allure. And again, those who were the early adopters got in. And those are down on the fence.

Like, you know, you can see like nothing's been compelling enough. And the arguments come, it goes, and then it keeps fading. So I think it's going to take something a little bit more. to really kind of boost it a lot other than trading ranges. So I think you can trade it. You know what it's going to take, Peter, Bitcoin above 90,000. Yeah, so that's probably it, right? Higher price is the old meme of people lining up at 126 to buy Bitcoin,

but nobody in line at 35. All it's going to take is higher prices. And I think what you're saying is actually really interesting and probably correct. I think that I get the texts all the time from my trad-five friends. You know, they just don't quite get it anymore. Oh, it was so exciting before. Why is it trading like shit? hear it all the time. But in the meantime, Morgan Stanley launches an ETF, Goldman

launches income Bitcoin ETF. Charles Schwab launches Bitcoin and a theory of like Charles Schwab's an oxygenarian. Guys like 88 years old. It's not like he's like deep on his iPhone looking at yield, yield, you know, yield farming on Uniswap. Yeah, so I took a look at that one, for example. Really some demand, right? You know, I think the one thing, though, never forget, Wall Street's always good at trying to figure out where the profit margin is. And, you know, stocks trading, you know, thousands of a cent per share or whatever. They're looking at something where I think Schwab's at 0.75% for, you know, Bitcoin. I mean, it takes a lot of stock trades to make that much money as if you can get one person.

By the way, I didn't realize fidelity is at a full point one. Like, so this is actually cheaper than federal. Right. So it's coming down, which is encouraging. But again, that also, I think, makes it hard in this day and age where everyone's kind of very conservative. But everyone seems to want to risk manage, right? So Bitcoin is not a particularly efficient way to risk manage if you think you're going to be buying and selling. And the cost of entry is quite high relative to, you know, trading an ETF. Yeah. James, I know you don't want to have the same old debate.

You can jump in, but I do actually, once you do want to talk to you about this guy right here, which is Michael Saylor, obviously, and I'm going to definitely be talking about this headlessly. Casually bought another 34,164 Bitcoin for $2.54 billion. cost basis is right where price is now. You know, it's 75,000, 527. They've got 815,000 Bitcoin, but to me, the bigger story is the way they're buying it now, right? Obviously, last Monday they announced that they had bought 14,000 Bitcoin

right around a billion dollars, so much less, even though huge, but it was all STRC. Right? I think this time it's $2.2 billion of it is STRC, and 200,000 plus is from MSTR, which is down on the day. but like he seems to have found a pretty solid way here. Yeah, I mean, and this is this is telling. So, you know, when you start having, this is kind of a layer two, right?

So what he's doing is he's, he's arbitraging the fiat markets by saying, look, I'm going to, I'm going to sell you this preff. And I'm going to borrow money from you. And it's, you know, the preff, it, it's never has to be. paid back, you know, so and because it's a perpetual preferred. And so he, what he's doing is he's just, he's just borrowing, basically he's borrowed $8.5 billion from the markets and saying that I'm going to pay you an 11.5% dividend on this. And, you know, for that, I'm going to turn around and buy Bitcoin. And so his bet is that Bitcoin is going to, it's going to grow, than 11.5% over the course of the life of this, this security. I think it's a pretty good bet.

I think you would take the exact opposite side of Mike on every single conversation. But, you know, it's working. And so what he's doing is people, people are looking at balance sheet and say, oh, my, he's going to get blown up. He's going to get blown up. He's not going to get blown up. He's got, he's got $8.5 billion. He's got to pay back there. You know, I mean, his total debt is 8.2 trillion or 8.2 billion, right, on all the converts, you know, like, but he's got $61 billion worth of, of Bitcoin just sitting on the balance sheet. And so, and that's with Bitcoin down 50% from its highs, or not 50% anymore, but, you know, 40% from its highs. And so, you know, he's made, he's, he is creating a situation where he's drawing capital, slowly

albeit from places that are looking for yield. You know, when you're reaching for yield and you're buying high yield bonds that what's the average high yield bond trading at now, Mike? I don't have it up on my, on my monitor, but you've got it up on your Bloomberg, I'm sure. But when you're, you're talking about buying high yield bonds that, I mean, just a few percent over what you could buy a treasury at. It's just maddening to think of the risk that you're taking on, especially with private credit.

I mean, the obvious bucket for him to draw capital out of that it hasn't even begun yet is private credit, where you've got these, you know, the institutions that are searching for yield, they're reaching for yield and they're pouring money into private credit. A lot of endowments, pension funds, you know, And nonprofits are pouring money into the private credit buckets to try to get yield. And Sailor's offering them a better yield, but almost what is it, Mike? Did you say it?

Did you find it? It's about 200 basis points. Yeah, about 200 basis points above. So he's got his at currently about. By the way, the tax benefit because it's treated differently. So the effect of yield is 17, 19%, yeah. Exactly. So if you're getting, if you're getting about six and a half percent above the 10,

getting six and a half percent, which is two percent above the 10 year, okay, then you're getting, you know, another five percent over that to own stretch. You know, it's a no-brainer. And you've got liquidity, right? And you've got the return of capital. It's not a, it's not a taxable event because it's a return of capital, the dividend. end. Now, I'm not saying, Mike, you laughed. I'm not saying that it's a no-brainer to take your entire bucket and put it in there, but it's a no-brainer to layer some in because you can raise

the profile of your entire yielding. I mean, especially as a yielding portfolio. Yeah. If you believe in Bitcoin, this is an obvious play for someone who needs to yield. What's that? That's the key thing, James. Everybody says it, you got to believe. Like, that's the worst thing ever. You don't have to believe. Let's just finish one thing about Michael Saylor. Thank you very much. He was wonderful. In 2020, when I felt like I was the idiot in the room by being bullish Bitcoin and making the prediction from a $10,000, it would add a zero.

Yes, I didn't ride that the whole way. But when he jumped on in July 2020, my thank you for helping me not be the only guy who felt this way. I appreciated that from him. But when I got to $100 and he got a 10x and he doubled down and made fun of Warren Buffett for not investing in Bitcoin when micro strategy reached $400, I said, thank you. you forgive me the sell signal because he double dog there in the market gods now you made a statement i just find shocking that he's not going to blow up james he's buying an asset that has no underlying basis and has one and now there's millions of similar type of assets now you can go down the curve we all agree 99% don't matter those space that space has started the purge there's got to be a place he's

stopped out what level is that is that bitcoin 57 bitcoin 37 we know how much markets work. You know this. I remember being in a trading pitch. You just try to figure out where the stops were. People would go, hey, hit the stops, run through the stops and then go away. The other way. That's what I think's going to happen. The market's going to run through his stop. And then we'll maybe have a bondman, maybe when we'll go in bullish again. But I just still see this is a market that's in purge mode. People are still living the glory days. He already has. He should have been getting out. And the whole rest of space needs to purge. That's my point out in that other chart. The correlation between Bitcoin and all the other cryptos is only increasing. That's my point.

is they all have to go up, which means the stock has to go up. So I see what Mr. Saylor's doing is triple leverage on the stock market in an asset that is highly liquid that's already somewhat peaked and markets usually stop them out and then gives you buying an opportunity. Stock market has to go up for that trade to work. I would just say, the crypto market's not coming back. People are not coming back into cryptos to help Bitcoin. When they trickle back into crypto, they're going to trickle back into Bitcoin. It's not they're not coming back into, you know, doge coin or maybe they will have Doge coin, but not going to come into some of the other nonsense, you know, fart coins. There's 20. When I talk to. Yeah, I would rather own 1%

put some percent into Bitcoin itself where you have the upside than a larger amount into this thing paying 11, some odd percent. Like if you're right on the Bitcoin side, you left all this money on the table and your downside case is probably going to look somewhat similar. if things go really wrong. But I'm talking about people are looking for yield. What I'm saying is the yield bucket is going to start trickling into this.

But I think you heard of people look at it. It has to be with the time. It is going to start trickling into this. Yeah. I think people, if they're looking at it properly, they're looking at their yield bucket versus their other risk buckets and saying, if I want exposure to Bitcoin,

do I want to put it this way in my yield bucket? But Peter, I'm talking about, I'm talking about institutions. But institutions are going to look at that way, too. They're going to say, where do I want my exposure to Bitcoin? Do I want it in my yield bucket where I'm capped or do I want it in my risk bucket?

I'm not capped. I don't think you're wrong. I just think that there are a lot of people out there who, if this evolves and continues, will not compare it to their Bitcoin bucket or the risk bucket. They'll compare it to the rest of their yield bucket. They'll say,

why buy a treasury if I can get, you know, a 17% effective yield here with a part of that yield. There's a very limited audience that can buy perpetual debt anyways. It's unsecured. It's like there's a lot of issues that turn this very different. Why it doesn't it? It doesn't have a rating and all that.

Of course. Yeah. Of course. So that's what I'm saying. It's small institutions. It's family offices. It's smaller endowments that don't have the same kind of, you know, risk measures and oversight that a University of Texas or, you know, a CalPERS has.

Like that's a completely different bucket. We're nowhere near that world. I concede that. That's reality. It's not, we're nowhere near that. But, you know, the point is that it's just like Scott just said, they're not looking between, you know, do I want exposure to Bitcoin over here or over there? They're saying, I need some yield. I need some yield.

Can I trust this thing? And then they look at the coverage and they say, well, you know, if I believe in Bitcoin enough. And this is what actually makes me happy to hear is that when you've got people saying it's over, it's over, it's dead. This place is dead. and it's never coming back, oh, man, that is the right time for you to start getting long something. And so when you say nothing backs Bitcoin, nothing backs, you know, there's a limited amount of utility for gold. It's not, you know, it's not in the $30 trillion level. Clearly, the largest driver of gold's price is not utility.

It's the belief that it's exchangeable at a certain price. It's the same thing as Fiat, you know, like you know they're printing more. It's a monopoly game and they're just pouring money into, you know, pockets that need liquidity left and right. So you know that they're making more of this thing, a lot more. It's not like just a percent or two. They're making 7% plus every year more of these dollars. And it's not just a U.S. dollar. It's all of it.

So the only thing that really, you know, if you go back to, you know, if you go back to, just, again, the first principles of exchanging something with somebody else, they believe that dollars are worth something, even though you can't really exchange it for anything, except for something that somebody's willing to give you for it. You can't go to the government and say, ah, okay, I don't want your note anymore. Give me back what, you know, the value on it. They're going to be like, there is no value. That's it. It's, it's that paper. You have it. That's it. So the belief system is very strong. So don't take that as me being flippant about fiat currency or about US dollars. I happen to believe that US dollars are going to be around a whole lot longer than

many Bitcoiners believe because the belief system is structural. We were born into there's very few people on this earth that remember a world where dollars weren't driving it. Right. So we were all born into this. U.S. dollar is the great almighty fiat currency and you can exchange it anywhere in the world for anything. People will take it. Oh, it's a dollar. Yeah, I'll take some of that. You know, I don't care if you have my local currency. I'll take dollars. That's, you know, that's been a quite a luxury for United States citizens for a very long time. And I think it's going to continue. And it probably will only get worse per, you know, Brent from San Diego Capital. is, you know, I think that it's only going to get worse and that the milkshake theory is going

to continue. Dollar is going to get stronger, you know, against other fiat currencies. So, but it's still on a belief system. And I do believe that someday that belief system cracks and fails. I don't think it's in the near future. It's pretty far off. It's not in years, but more like decades or even longer. But that's the reality.

It's only based on the belief system. You believe that it's going to be. be that somebody is going to accept it for exchange like a piece of silver. Yeah, I agree with all of that. A lot there to unpack. There was one thing that I just wanted to peg because it kind of aligns with maybe a stock market topping and a top topping could be a fun piece of conversation, but retail investors are leading the historic rally. Retail's favorite stocks are outperforming mutual fund favorite names by 11% points so far in April. This puts retail on track for the best relative months since November 2020 after five consecutive months of relative.

underperformance. I mean, to me, this is kind of noise, but it's going around. But another thing we maybe should touch on before we got five minutes to talk about it. But Warsh is, he's having Senate confirmation hearings this week. So it's kind of interesting that this is all happening right now with everything that's going on in the market. So I'd actually be interested to hear what you guys have to say about what you think is going to happen at the Senate this week with him. I think he's going to have great hair. I think we found out he's worth $192 million,

so I think he's going to be fine. Peter, Mike, I mean, any thoughts on the odds of him? I think he's going to come in a little more doveish than people expect. But yeah, go ahead, Peter. Yeah, I think he's going to stick to kind of the script that he has under President Trump, right? That he's going to be dupish, that he's looking for reasons to cut.

I think he'll try and stick to, I think Moran has probably had the best attack point, just arguing that the neutral rate is lower than the Fed currently has priced in. So he's trying to use some math. And the neutral rate's so fuzzy anyways, it's anyone's probably, yes, between zero and five percent. So say it's 2 percent instead of 3 percent and use that as an excuse. So I think he will push that. I think he'll be a little bit careful in terms of balance sheet usage and growing. He's going to say some of the right things in terms of that,

but I think he's going to be more focused on cuts than balance sheet growth. And I think he will kind of work his way through the system. I guess if he'll even get confirmed at all. He's smart enough to say the right things to get confirmed. That's basically a done deal. But he's not dumb enough to go down in history as Trump's lackey. And every single person on the planet gets now what's happening, Mr. Trump. He is sincerely now a lame duck.

He's lower in the polls than Mr. Nixon was at his lows. And we're all looking to a post-Trump world. He's changed the world, most substantial president in history. But who's going to go down is the, the, uh, the, uh, and the people that we're going to emulate in the world, Mr. Powell, who's going to go down right now, particularly if this war has a problem, is Mr. Trump has changed a lot of things, but, you know, some of the things certainly pissing off a lot of Catholics recently by using profanity on Easter Sunday. He's going to see what's happening, but Mr. Warsh is not going to go down as a lackey.

And that's what Mr. Trump has found out. Remember, he, there's two of the three judges he appointed his Supreme Court, voted against his his tariffs. And this is what's happening. It's a wonderful thing about the U.S. system. The check and balance system is being stronger than ever. Mr. Trump has tested it, and we're going to swing back the other way as we get to the midterms and the next elections.

Yeah. I mean, I don't disagree with you that Warsh is going to want to be his own man. He's not going to want to be seen as making the – securing the tie to an administration with the Fed, because the Fed is already barely hanging on by a thread that it's actually an independent institution, which is arguable in many ways. But he's not going to want to come in and just, I agree, I don't think he's just going to come in and lower rates. It's not going to happen. But what he can do is he can tip the balance. And he can start convincing other governors and other officials that they should be voting for a dovish kind of stance. And we could see that

the Fed Fund futures start swing in the opposite direction or further in this direction now because you're back to what maybe half a cut to the end of the year but I think there's going to be somewhere between two and three cuts by the end of the year. I just don't think they're coming in the summer.

I don't think that Worse is going to come in and suddenly we just get rate cuts. It's not going to happen. But it could happen sometime around the election and that wouldn't surprise me. Yeah, go ahead. No, we don't have a rate cut by 25 base points plugged or priced in until July. And there's one simple thing that'll make them cut so fast and 50,

25 basis points will be nothing. Stock market going down. Just imagine we're down 10% this year. God hell, you can't happen. That's why that's the main thing. It took all of 10 days to be back. Yeah,

but it's just a specific thing. As we get later in the year, you see the psychology of this. If it trickles down to say 10%, it's not going back up for a long time. That's the point we are now. It's got to go up. and stay up. It doesn't have any room as we get towards the end of the year past summer,

trickling down into the midterms when everybody's priced for one trade. Mr. Trump's got to keep prices up like they did in cryptos and Bitcoin. That didn't work. You see the psychology of this, that's why I say stay away in treasuries, look for spots to pick at. And I still pointed out Bitcoin selling on rallies and copper selling on rallies, even gold. That's the way the world is so far. Yeah, final question for you, Peter, since we have you. I mean, with all the rhetoric over the weekend on the war. I mean, where do you think this just stands and how does that relate to markets? Because for those, once again, for Peter's credentials, but he talks to, you know, many admirals and generals and works with them on a daily basis. So I think when we talk about this, the only way he can

really get a clear win that the public will buy into is to end the nuclear program for a significant period of time. So whether he does that via some treaty or whether we've used the last two weeks, to reset ourselves up for another round of attacks. I think ultimately the public will judge him on whether he stopped the nuclear programs in Iran or not. And I think that's why he's been floating out all these various messaging. That's the one messaging that seems to be able to convince people,

whether it's regime change or not, if he can end the nuclear threat, certainly for at least 10 years, that would be a win. So I don't think it matters whether he doesn't be a deal. And if they don't do a deal, I would expect another round of attacks where we've prepped this last two weeks to set up to go in to go in and get that. So I think he kind of knows that anything less than kind of an end of the nuclear program will not serve them well in the midterms. That won't be a win. He can claim it's a

win as much as it wants. The certain base will say it was a win. So I think that's what's key. I don't think he cares about regime change. It's getting that nuclear. And if we don't get it through peace in this maybe next day or two, I would look for another round of attacks where we take out more and more of their facilities to put pressure on and set the conditions to get that. So that's how we're kind of looking at it, the only way you can truly convince the American people will win, and it would be a real win. Again, if we can do this with permission where we are allowed to take, that would be a huge win, and it would make that region a little bit better. You know, icing on the cake would be if there's any ability for U.S. companies to do business in Iran,

that would be kind of part of a longer-term regime change shift. That would be very positive. But I think it's 50-50 right now, and certainly if we don't get a deal in the next two or days, that we probably have to go after another round of attacks because there's no matter, James, I think is right. He has to sell this as a win. But I think the only way he can convince the American public it was a win is to end the nuclear threat. And so I think that comes either via negotiation or another round of attacks. The only thing that's going to matter for him in midterms are gasoline prices, higher or lower is the stock market higher or lower. Gasoline has to be lower. They're going to just say, sorry, dude, you fail. I don't care about the nuclear. They're getting crushed. People can't afford it. It's all that matters. Yeah, I don't disagree with that. I guess the question was, you know, from the market perspective, if the war just keeps going, the market doesn't seem to care yet.

Is there anything that could actually make the market dump that's a news headline from this war? Yeah, I think, so when we look at the other side, you know, we're all talking about what the U.S. is probably done in the last two weeks. If Iran has more missiles, if they are able to attack some facilities in the region, I think that's really scary, right? So the risk of escalation, I think, is the assumption that we're in better shape, which I think we largely believe, but Iran's had 47 years to plan for this. They've had the last Trump 1.0 to think about what he would do.

So they're pretty well prepared about this. I don't know what they've been able to pull out of the caves, what they've set up, if they've got any new equipment in from China. So I think that would be the real fear. If they can launch successful attacks right now, because I feel the market's position that we're in a relatively dominant military force, there's no chance of us losing, just a chance of this extending. If there was something to say that we actually have to pull out a little bit,

fearfully or loss of life, I think that's when you get markets to tank again. By tank, you know, down 5% or something. I don't think, you know, this massive sell-up, but I think that's what it would take is some sign that Iran's actually better prepared than the market certainly seems to believe right now. And I think that's a non-zero probability. Yeah, of course. All right.

Well, we made it. 10.03. Thank you, gentlemen. Peter. Always wonderful to have you here. Dave was missed, but I know that he will be back. Just really quick. Sorry, guys, I got to do this, but I have to announce once again, today my.

show on Yahoo Finance is launching live at noon called The Daily Wolf. If you watch my Friday solo show, it's going to be kind of like that, but 15 minutes, which is basically for some reason, they're trusting me to just be unhinged and riff on headlines as they come out. But if you want to watch it, it's on Yahoo Finance. You'll go over here. It'll probably be on the front page. Actually, hit watch now and you'll see that this is their live channel. I don't think people realize how big Yahoo Yahoo Finance is. They do 220 million uniques a month. It's about three times bigger than CNBC on their video. So even though it's not on your TV, this is, oh, there it is. Look, The Daily Wolf was Scott Milk for Life.

I never saw that. But should theoretically, so I can't blow it, this should be the first and only for now, I think, mainstream crypto show that's daily, maybe ever. So I'm going to go get ready for that. And hopefully you guys will tune in at noon. And if you miss it at noon, it will be on my YouTube, probably within 30 minutes after they put it on their YouTube. It will be collabiet there.

So thank you, guys. It was a great show. Hopefully I'll see the rest of you. around noon today. That's all we got for you. Peace.