The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin In Trouble? DeFi Broken? What's Next For Crypto?
Episode Date: August 23, 2023Joshua Frank and Chris Inks are joining my show to break down everything that's happening now with Bitcoin. Joshua Frank: https://twitter.com/Joshua_Frank_ Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapit...al ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000! 👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/  ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets  ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker  Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io  Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe  Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c  #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:00 DeFi hacks 5:30 The biggest problem with DeFi 9:00 US reserves are a classic shitcoin 12:00 Crypto faces difficulties raising funds 17:00 The hackers 19:20 We need new money in the system 22:30 Binance is in trouble? 28:00 Transparency issue 35:00 A lot of good news coming 37:00 Charts 42:00 Bitcoin to $24K 45:40 BNB fud 53:00 Ethereum The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
I was discussing with my producer yesterday what today's topic should be for the show.
And based on what was happening with Curve Finance and the fact that the CEO, Michael,
could still get liquidated and effectively crash all of DeFi, I said, let's talk about if DeFi is
broken or DeFi is dead. Then doing 10 more minutes of due diligence with today's guest, Joshua Frank,
we found that there were three more hacks just in the last two days, a couple of major hacks last week, last month, probably 75,000 hacks. And North
Korea apparently is hacking everybody out here, going to sell all their Bitcoin, crash everything,
and it's bad. So what we're going to do today, before we have Texas West Capital, Chris, come on
at the end of the show and talk charts, Josh and I are going to go for our Seinfeld Festivus moment.
We are going to air our grievances.
And the next time I have him on, I promise we will talk about how both of us are literally
all in financially in the crypto market and the things that we're bullish on.
But it is an absolute shit show right now.
Bitcoin sitting here at support and DeFi just an absolute disaster.
So if you're here for some extreme positivity, I don't know, man, sign off. Let's go. when I was doing my research, D-Y-O-R, this morning for this show. I didn't think it was
that bad. It was like, we're going to do this clickbait title and talk about how DeFi was in
trouble because of the curve finance hack. I talked that to death a few weeks ago.
But basically, to give you the gist, the CEO took a massive loan using his own founder tokens,
talking about like a $100 million loan
over collateralized with 300 million in tokens. Then Curve got hacked, of course. Curve went down.
Price came very, very close to his liquidation that he had used those funds to buy two mansions
because this is fucking crypto. And then he sold a whole bunch of curve finance tokens over the counter to a bunch of
friends on handshake deals. You guys won't sell, right? Right, guys? Justin's son, you wouldn't
do me dirty like that. For 40 cents, he sold all these things. Well, now we're at 46 cents,
just barely 12, 13% over that price. And we've seen some of those people who did OTC deals sending their
coins to centralized exchanges, but they insist they're just there for safekeeping.
Not going to do anything with them. So if this gets liquidated, it would have massive consequences
on Aave, other lending protocols, and could basically liquidate the limited TVL that we
have left in DeFi. And that's not even the best story, but I'm going to go ahead and bring Josh
on. We're going to talk about this. Josh, it was really fun doing our research
this morning, right? Yeah. Yeah. All great news. All good news. First, I do want to share some
good news. Guys, check out this shirt that I'm wearing. I don't know if you see it.
It's Gary Gensler getting arrested by a bunch of Pepe police. And that shirt came from none other than Joshua Frank at the time.
This is a gift that arrived at my door and it's my favorite thing I've ever
owned in my entire life. Don't tell my kids. I don't know my kids, I guess,
but it's basically my favorite physical possession. What, where, what,
what happened? How'd you make these?
Well, it was, it wasn't made by the tie.
It was made by one of the designers on my team. He just showed up at my desk and he just like he was like, I have a gift for you. And he gave it to me. And then I was like, I'll just post this on Twitter and post it on Twitter. And you liked it. And so awesome. I have to say, I don't know that I've ever seen you here, but in 2017, her and Chris Inks, who I have on the back, those were the only two people
that I followed for trading ideas, learned an absolute ton. Amazing to see you here. That's
really, really awesome. But anyway, so while we're talking about, that was a positive thing,
let's get into a few other positive things
like what's happening in DeFi right now. So first of all, man, what are your broad strokes? I mean,
is it as bad as I'm sort of discussing and just grabbing it here? I think it is, right? Look,
DeFi was really born in the summer of 2020, right? Obviously, DeFi had existed before,
but it really kind of bore out of the pandemic and a low interest rate environment. And it was an area where you could go earn
thousands of percent yield trading on kimchi swap, burger swap, I don't know, all these,
any food items swap back in 2020. And it started there and it started to kind of move to a place
where there are real products and real infrastructure and real tools that are being built that do solve real problems.
The challenge is right now I can go earn 5% in yields from treasury bonds versus I can earn,
in some cases, less than that on DeFi protocols with all of the smart contract risk associated
with it. I mean, the biggest problem that we have with DeFi, the idea of DeFi isn't a problem. I think the idea
of DeFi is great. I think the idea that you can go out and you don't have to interact with the bank,
there's no middleman, and you can go and you can borrow and you can trade and you can do other
things. I think that's a great idea. The problem is right now, how are we ever going to attract
anybody new into crypto? Yes, there are people interacting on
DeFi, but it's the same people. We're just swishing our money around in a circle. When is the last
time, just ask yourself this, when is the last time you spoke to somebody who said, I interacted
with DeFi for the first time this year? Or when's the last time you talked to somebody who said,
I interacted with DeFi and it was super simple, man. The UX UI was great. It's not even the UX UI.
Let's take that aside.
UX UI aside, which is another issue, it's just like, why would you put your money in
DeFi?
I think just to kind of expand on that fact, on the institutional side, we have a ton of
clients that were interfacing with DeFi and they're all afraid.
I mean, if you look
at this, so I actually found this list and I don't, I'm not familiar with this website or this company,
but let me share my screen here. I love lists. So this is this, and this doesn't even have some
of the new hacks from, from since May. So there's a lot more hacks that have occurred since May. So
this is just pre-May. And then, you know, we've had, I don't know, three hacks in the last week or so. You're
talking, I don't know, 148 DeFi exploits, totaling $4.28 billion. If you look at today,
the market cap of all DeFi tokens is only about $35 billion. And that's not TVL, obviously,
but you're talking, I mean, these are gigantic, gigantic, gigantic amounts of money that are being hacked.
And there's a huge I mean, you basically to manage your risk in DeFi, you basically have to operate under the assumption that 20 percent of your money is going to be lost.
Right. Ten to 20 percent of your money. I don't understand how that can how we can live in a world where that happens.
Right. And I think there's obviously, there are different reasons
why all of these DeFi protocols get hacked, right?
You know, some cases it can be a rug pull, right?
Where the founder just goes and steals the money.
In some cases, it could be the fact that,
you know, I don't think people take
smart contract audit seriously.
Like a lot of people are like,
yeah, this protocol is audited,
but was it audited a week ago?
And did they make a code change?
Because if it wasn't audited since the code change came out, you know, and who audited it?
And what's their track record?
And, you know, how many protocols they audited got hacked, right?
It was like a meme.
I remember it.
It must have been 2021 when it was like audited by Certec.
And you'd be like, oh, you're getting hacked like tomorrow.
Like your shit's getting drained.
The best auditing audit means nothing.
There are some, I actually had,
I actually spoke to the founders of Halborn, you know,
maybe six months ago,
they said they'd only had one protocol ever that they audited that had got
hacked. So it sounds like they have a better track record.
I don't know the last six months though, if any of these were them. So,
so I'm not sure. But yeah, I mean,
it's concerning. And it's just like, look, if you're right now for crypto to grow, we need
more capital to come in, right? We need new money in the system. We need new participants in the
system. And there are a lot of problems. One of those problems, and I shared it with you
earlier today, is the fact that the Federal Reserve of San Francisco found that
US savings dwindled from $2.1 trillion in May to $190 billion now, or sorry, in March, and they're going to be basically totally gone by the end of the month. So now we have a situation in which
you can earn 5% yield on treasuries. US doesn't have a lot of savings anymore, right?
And institutions that were interfacing with crypto
or allocating to crypto are like,
why would I go and I take that risk, right?
And so it's, and look, this is coming from somebody,
by the way, who has 99% of his liquid net worth
and illiquid net worth tied to crypto, right?
So I'm a long-term believer in crypto.
We're just not in a good spot right now, right?
I mean, I think the confluence of all these factors are not helping.
I just want to reiterate the number that you just said,
because you said it in passing and you had tagged it for me here.
There was $2.1 trillion in US savings in March, so six-ish months ago.
That's now $190 billion.
I mean, that's like the chart of a shitcoin.
That's down like 90% in six months or something.
And they say by the end of this month,
it's going to be totally gone if you keep scrolling down.
Anecdotally, I keep saying that it feels like
everyone's having their last hurrah summer
before the apocalypse.
Like if this was a movie
and we all knew an asteroid would come in,
what would we have been doing with our savings this summer?
Like traveling on extravagant journeys
and quitting our jobs and
stuff. It feels like that's what everyone's doing before this impending recession that's
inevitably coming and they have no money left. It's like, fuck it. I might as well just blow
off the top before we get there. Yeah. And look, and maybe that happens,
and that's probably a good thing because I I think, you know, we need we need inflation to continue to cool.
We need spending to continue to cool if we want the Fed to to stop hiking interest rates or to to lower interest rates for that matter.
Right. So maybe maybe maybe that's a good thing.
And I think, you know, obviously, every every economist that knows, you know, and a lot of them know a lot better than I do.
Everyone seems to have a different perspective on what's going to happen. Some people think, you know, we haven't yet seen the impact of,
you know, of 5.25, 5.5% rates on the economy yet. Other people do think we've had an, you know,
seen an impact. So, you know, there's, there's a lot of, there's a, there's a lot of, you know,
differences in opinion here, but the U S economy seems to be humming along. But if you look at
Europe, I mean, it's a total fucking shit show. So I don't know. But we're at a point now where if
you're an allocator, if you're a pension fund, if you're an endowment, if you're a sovereign wealth
fund, right now, crypto, that's what fueled a lot of this boom. The boom was fueled by two things.
The boom was fueled by stimulus checks, low interest rates,
and people having a lot of excess spending to go in to crypto. And, you know, I know we're talking
now broader crypto than just DeFi, as well as, you know, crypto funds were able to raise a lot
of money from high net worth individuals and their family offices, as well as from we saw,
you know, we saw the Ontario municipal employee retirement system, invest in crypto companies,
we saw the Quebec Celsius. Right? Yeah, crypto companies. We saw that Quebec.
Celsius. Right. Yeah. Well, that was Quebec. Quebec invested in Celsius. I think Omer's was FTX
and a couple others, but Quebec definitely invested in Celsius. That was not a good investment.
And I don't know how they didn't miss that in diligence because everyone in crypto knew.
Yeah. I mean, you saw Tomasic, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, invest in FTX and a bunch of other companies. GIC, the Singaporean to raise capital, right? They're really struggling to raise new money.
There are some that are, right?
But it's, and that's broad for all investors, but crypto specifically, right?
People are like, why would I give you money right now if I could go earn 5% yield putting
money in treasuries?
Like, why am I putting my money in crypto?
And that's just really not a good place to be in at this point.
Yeah, if the appeal of DeFi can't even get you more than 5%
with more risk, it obviously makes no sense. I just want to cook through some of these hacks,
just so people can see what we're not just making this up. This is what today?
This is a couple days ago. Okay, sorry. Yeah. Four days ago. So old news. DeFi protocols exactly
never heard of it. Harbor literally never heard of it. Hack never heard of it hack in separate attacks a fresh round
of attacks targeted but the defy ecosystem on august 18th with exactly protocol exploited for
nearly 7.3 million pennies while harbor's team is still estimating the amount stolen that line
right there is the one that just is the real kick in the nuts for me on crypto do you remember i
think it was the ronin hack like a year or two
ago with a bridge hack and they didn't realize it had happened for like six days. It was like
$400 million was missing and literally nobody even knew about it for six days because they were too
drunk to check. Like the problem here is that yes, it's smart contract risks, but there obviously
should be a human monitoring it to see when funds disappear, right? I mean, how do you not know how much?
The blockchain is really transparent.
Like, is it just that they can't calculate the ETH to USD value?
It might be.
It might also be that there are multiple different smart contracts that are vulnerable
and they don't know how many of them are vulnerable or not.
That seemed like that's been the case with Balancer, which happened yesterday.
Right, but the money disappears from the account. Here's Balancer, right? Okay. I mean,
from the wallet. Okay. Here's Balancer. Keep going. Yeah, no, no. I mean, like, you know,
it seemed like for Balancer, 1.9% of the assets, and if you scroll down on this story,
it seems like 1.9% of the assets ended up being at risk, not all of the assets,
1.4%. so $10 million.
But it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. I love DeFi. I love the teams building in DeFi. I'm close friends with a lot of them, but we're at a point now where it's just like Curve and Balancer
were two blue chip DeFi projects. And Curve is now, and I told you this today, this is the most ridiculous fucking stat curve is now further down from its
all time high than FTT.
What the fuck?
I,
how is like,
I don't understand.
Yeah.
It's further down from its all time high than FTT.
It's down.
Um,
we're down.
Yeah.
I mean the all time high,
if you count that way to the launch was $23.
It's at 46 cents.
It actually, yeah, it's23. It's at $0.46. FTT's popping.
Yeah, it's good.
It's all-time high.
It actually, at one point, hit $60 for a second.
But, yeah, it's down 99.24% from its all-time high.
Yeah.
As British soccer fans, English soccer fans say, it seems to be coming home.
I mean, this thing does not... I don't see any reason it's going to bounce massively here i mean uh wow i mean what
a joke and so balancer i mean like you said these are the blue chips right i mean curve balancer
these are the ones that have been around for a long time it's still at a one and a half billion
dollar fully diluted market cap so it's still still, I mean, it's still relatively huge.
I don't know what that means, but yeah, I mean, you know, you're talking to your point,
you know, large blue chip assets, you know, that are down 99% for their all time high.
Another crypto bridge collapses as DeFi lender on optimism suffers 7 million tech. Also didn't hear about this one. 7 million,
this is probably, this is exactly right. Okay. Yeah. It's on optimism. So I mean,
now we don't even hear about 7 million. This one's 10 days ago. So totally irrelevant at this point.
Zunami, literally who makes these names up. Protocol, that sounds like the name of like a
place you would keep animals in Black Panther or something. Protocol loses over 2.1 million
in price manipulation hack. DeFi yield farm aggregator promised the highest APY in the market. Turns out that when
you promise really high APY, maybe it's not that safe. I don't know. I mean, there's so many of
these. But who's hacking it? Let's go to the best part. Who has been part of a lot of these hacks?
There you go. We got that. up directly from the FBI? This is
specifically Bitcoin, but the FBI identifying the fact that, what is the total number here?
I don't know if they posted it, but- This is saying they're about to sell $40 million,
but we know that they've literally, I mean, so this story is that they're going to sell $40
million worth because it's being moved, but we know that they've already hacked billions and i think this year alone it's a few hundred million yeah i
mean it in june there was a hundred uh six 60 million dollar hack on june 22nd 37 million
dollar hack on june 22nd and 100 million dollar hack on june 2nd so within june they managed to hack 200 million dollars
i mean i guess we're paying for this is lazarus group to north korea uh yeah this is just lazarus
group and then there was this one atomic wallet is now we have this was an older hack but now
yeah there's an old hack but now they're facing a lawsuit of a hundred over a hundred million
dollar for their losses so now we're actually seeing people start to push
back. I mean, Thailand threatens Facebook with shutdown over crypto scams. Where's the news
that's good here? U.S. court hands three-year jail sentence to a SIM swapper. I've also been
seeing crypto scams on Twitter ads all the time now over the last couple of weeks. I mean, it's
been crazy. It's just very clear and obvious scams. I mean, it's been crazy. It's just very clear and
obvious scams. I mean, it's, it's, it's just, it's gotten to the point where there's just not
a lot going for us right now. And the question is what turns the tide here. Right. And so hopefully,
right. So hopefully, I mean, go look at, pull up the XRP chart, look at what happened to XRP since,
since both. So Bitcoin is also round-tripped, right?
I mean, Bitcoin is back to the same price that it was before the announcement
that BlackRock was filing, right?
And XRP has more than round-tripped its move.
It's down 26%.
It's down 26% over the last 30 days.
Yeah, I mean, it got to a high of 95 cents
on that move basically in
one week is the weekly chart. And then back down to 42 cents. And now at 51, I mean, this is tragic.
And this was like, imagine being an XRP. And I'm not saying this in a critical manner. Like I'm
saying this genuinely, like imagine you're an XRP holder and you're like, I'm going to hold for
years because we're going to win. And then you win and you get like a one day pump and full retracement. Yeah. I mean, the problem is it's
a very consistent problem. We need new money in the system. It can't be the same money. It can't
be the same users without new capital in the system. This market's not going to grow. It's
the same people sending money back and forth to each other, right? Everyone is fighting over the
same users. Everyone is airdropping the same users who are running in circles, catching those airdrops and then fucking off from the protocols.
Right. It's just there's you know, there's it's no new friends. Right. We need new friends.
And in order to get new friends, you know, we need new friends from two sides.
We need new retail friends and we need new institutional friends from an institutional perspective.
I am confident, which is good, that there is much better infrastructure being built,
right? From an institutional perspective, we're now seeing from an exchange perspective,
we obviously have EDX markets, which is backed by Citadel and Virtu and others that are separating
out a lot of the parts of the exchange that Gensler has gone after, from settlement to
trading and other things, right? We have improvements. I mean, Coinbase, to its credit, has not had any exploits or hacks or anything
bad happened to it for over 10 years at this point, I believe, right? So we have, you know,
we have, you know, we have that we have, you know, better custody solutions, we have Boney
Mellon taking custody seriously, we have State Street taking crypto custody seriously. Right. So there is infrastructure that is getting built for institutions. But they also, you know, they need to be able to raise money to interact in this market and they need to see liquidity. Without liquidity and without confidence that their money is not going to be stolen, it's really hard for them to interface. No matter, you know, you kind of have this problem where a lot of funds, there were a lot of funds, for example, that were trading.
So a fund has what's called the GP and the LP.
The GP is the general partners.
It's the people that own the hedge fund or the venture fund.
And then you have the LP.
That's all the investors in the fund, right?
That would be like if the sovereign wealth fund of a particular country put money into a fund, they'd be the LP.
But the person who owns the fund is the GP. So in 2021, 2022, we saw a lot of big hedge funds testing crypto trading with the GP, with the partner's
capital. A lot of them were trading on FTX. And then once FTX collapsed, they're like,
get my money the hell off of this exchange or the hell off of Binance or any other exchange.
Right. And so, you know what we need, we need to have for our own sake, like a month
of no bad news. I mean, I'll even take a week at this point of no bad news in crypto, but these
we're just digging our own grave at this point. Yeah. I mean, you just invoked the name of Binance
and this is a quote from the Wall Street Journal, which neither of us read.
Oh, this is also a fucking disaster. Yeah. The journal also said Russians made peer-to-peer transactions worth approximately
$428 million a month from October through March, according to Russia's central bank.
And Binance volunteers called Binance Angels reportedly told users over Telegram that the
exchange isn't imposing trading limits on Russian clients, a restriction it announced in April 2022
to accord with EU sanctions. So to be clear,
obviously, the United States and European Union have sanctioned. Listen, by the way,
I think Russians should be able to trade. So I'm not talking about my personal belief here. I think
it's insane that your average Russian person is sanctioned from the banking system and from crypto
in general. But if Binance is allowing sanctioned people and wallets to do transactions,
the United States is not going to like that very much.
Well, part of the article was that the DOJ is now going after Binance on that.
One more thing.
How do you think this Binance situation shakes out?
You know, how do I think this Binance situation shakes out?
I mean, I think it shakes out with Binance being shut down. I don't know how it shakes out any other way. It's just, I just, I don't understand
how it, how it, they clearly did business with US customers as I'm sure you and I have both used
Binance.com. I mean, not me, but maybe someone who looks a lot like me and has a different email
address. Right. Exactly. Exactly. So, you know, it's like they clearly interface with U.S. customers. They've also interfaced with sanctioned
countries. Right. They've kind of I don't know. I mean, it's kind of clear to me that CZZ has been
like trying to manipulate the price of BNB for the longest time, just talking about it publicly and,
you know, being bullish and saying it should
go up and things like that, which I can't imagine is appreciated by regulators. I don't know. Look,
I'm a fan of Binance and this sucks. I think it's a great product. And there's a lot of liquidity
in the market. I think it's a good product. I have nothing wrong to say about the product,
but they've clearly not taken regulation and operating within a legal framework seriously. And that's just not
going to work out. And it's not just that they pissed off the SEC, which, you know, we have
disagreements with. They pissed off, you know, I'm sure the FBI, the DOJ and more serious entities
and not just in the US, but in other countries as well. Yeah. I'm torn on the Binance one sort of for the same reason that you are saying is that I think a
lot of their lack of compliance was in the earlier years when the regulation was unclear. But this
is more recent and very clear if this is the case, right? The Russia stuff. I give Binance a pass for
allowing Americans with no KYC in 2017 and 2018 to
trade on the exchange because there were really kind of no rules and nobody cared. It was like
driving Model Ts before there were roadside speed limits and seatbelts. But if they haven't cleaned
it up since then, I imagine it's going to be very hard. I was wondering if maybe we would just see
a situation where maybe CZ steps back and they get shut down in the United States, but they continue to operate in other places.
It was really eye opening for me.
I was in I don't know where I was, but I was with Rand Neuner the last time we were hanging out.
And he was he had the same opinion as you.
And I know he's friends with CZ and I know he had publicly sort of sold BNB and CZ unfollowed him on Twitter.
But they're still friends.
But and he was saying, listen, there's
no other way this ends exactly what you said for Binance than DOJ action. And he's gone. I hope
that's not true. That's not necessarily my opinion, but that seems to be consensus.
Yeah. I mean, look, the thing is, the reason we said we want to air our grievances today is we
need to wash all the garbage out. Like we can't move forward until
everything gets cleaned out, right? We need to, we need to go out with all of the, all of the
garbage, all the market manipulation, all the hacks, all the rug pulls, all of the, you know,
trading with sanctioned entities, all of the things that are just going to put us in, you know,
the, the, in the, the, you know, view of the government from a, from a negative
perspective for, for, for lack of better ways to say that and, and, and, and clean up our act.
Right. And I think the frustrating thing is there are a lot of us that are trying to clean up our
act, right. And are trying to do the right thing and are trying to build infrastructure. And what's,
it's, what sucked is, you know, it's, we've just seen setbacks. Like for example,
I give a lot of credit to Cowen. So Cowen was an investment bank launching a crypto arm, building like a full prime brokerage solution. They got acquired by TD and TD shut them down, right, because they didn't want to have to deal with crypto and regulatory scrutiny and things like that. And there are other big firms like that that have kind of suffered from similar setbacks. And I don't think that would be the case if we had had the FTX collapse, Celsius, BlockFi, all of this nonsense that's gone on. So look, I'm hopeful.
I'm hopeful because, look, I operate a crypto company. I employ 80 people in crypto that have
jobs with me that have livelihoods that require, there's a requirement that I am able to bring
revenue and drive growth in the company for those folks' livelihood, there's a requirement that I, you know, am able to bring revenue and
drive growth in the company for those folks' livelihood, right? And so for us, you know,
we need the pie to grow, right? And we need to figure out what we can do as an industry to
move forward and to shut out and shun bad actors and not be afraid to say, you know what,
this is a fucking scam. This is bullshit. This needs to get cleaned up because we need that
in order to move forward
so that we can, you know,
look, this should be a step at like the ETF approval,
which sounds like it's going to happen.
I mean, look, I don't know.
I'm not an expert,
but it sounds like it's going to happen from all accounts.
Sounds like Grayscale is going to win this week.
All of these things are great.
So let's build on that momentum,
but let's also, you know,
there are too many people
that are defending bullshit in this space.
And I think we need to just stop defending bullshit.
Yeah. I think the problem, I think that the distinction there is it's going to become a
sort of Bitcoin, maybe Ethereum, I don't know, Bitcoin and institution and everything else.
So like, I like that. None of what you just said, I agree with a hundred percent with all of it.
None of that's stopping hackers from just crushing for years because there's no fix here for what's going on.
Someone had an interesting comment here that said, one week of no bad news.
Stock market has worse news every week.
Why follow all this media FUD?
Have you guys not learned this?
There is a huge FUD campaign.
So, A, there is a huge FUD campaign against crypto.
In the past, we've seen stupid narratives like environmental impact and only for criminals and all that. But what we're
showing you, this isn't FUD. This is literal news of people stealing money from you every single day
in DeFi. So yes, there is a FUD campaign, but that doesn't change the fact that we're shooting
ourselves in the foot repeatedly. Yeah. And again, we both have 90 plus percent
of our net worth in crypto.
We both believe in crypto.
We are very long-term crypto.
I am a long-term holder.
I have fucking diamond ass hands, right?
I'm here for the long run,
but, you know, we need to clean our act up, right?
And we need to, you know, look,
maybe we just don't ship DeFi protocols
as, you know, we don't make as many
updates to DeFi protocols and we make sure that we can't stop the beauty of decentralization.
And I say that without sarcasm is that people can do whatever they want, but you can choose
where to put your money. Right. And you can choose and you can choose to call for more transparency
into how they're doing their audits when the audits are done. Right. How frequently those
like how frequently they're being audited, whether or not they're making any code pushes post audit,
right? I think one of the things that we need to do as an industry is call for transparency.
One of the products that we offer at the tie to our clients is token unlock data. Basically
tracking every time a VC fund who invested in a project is going to unlock. So when VCs, for example, invest in tokens, a lot of time they receive what's called a one-year cliff for your best, right?
Where basically they receive, so let's say you invest $20 million into a project.
After one year, you receive one fourth of those tokens.
Then over the following 36 months, you receive 136.
The same thing goes a lot of times the teams have vesting and other entities that are involved have-
Can I show it? I have it on the tag.
I mean, you can show it. But my point with all of this is that a lot of these projects
we're asking them questions about upcoming token unlocks, like, hey,
what is your vesting schedule? What's going
on? When are your investors going to unlock? Because I think the market deserves to know
what the distribution schedule for these tokens are. And a lot of them are kicking us out of their
discord. They're literally kicking us from their discord for asking questions about what they're
doing with unlocks. And so I think calling for more transparency across the board is only a good
thing in this space. We're actually working with a project now to publish their token economics and all of
their vesting contract addresses.
So you'll be able to track their addresses on chain that are actually distributing all
their tokens.
And I think I think like things like that.
Right.
And that fits in kind of the guise of, you know, being transparent about your code pushes,
being transparent about your audits, all of that
kind of stuff. Transparency is key to moving the market forward here. Yeah, I'm clicking through
this. A lot of these are bullshit, obviously, which I'm not saying has anything to do with
you guys. It's just you track everything. But I mean, ApeCoin right here on September 15th,
8% of the total market cap is being released at once. That should go great because those people
are totally going to sell the minute they can because the market stay, which is sort of the total market cap is being released at once. That should go great because you know those people are totally going to sell the minute they can because the market stay, which is sort of the darling of this new market right now.
5% of market cap, 1% of total supply, same day.
SUI, obviously huge.
4.61% of market cap. If you click into SUI, for example, just click on it, you could see and not saying they have good or bad token economics, but you could see, I mean, they have massive, if you of tokens that are circulating? Scroll up to the top there.
730 million out of 10 billion tokens.
So only 7.2% of the supply is currently circulating for SUI.
But things like this, the projects need to be more transparent about that. Because you can have a situation in which a lot of tokens are coming to market.
All I'm calling for, broadly speaking, is more transparency.
I just think no one loses if there's more transparency,
except for people trying to scam. I was just say nobody loses except for the uh founders
their mansions yeah and i'm not saying suey is this is just an example of a token with a lot
of upcoming unlocks but there are a lot of projects and i think we might start calling
some of them out publicly that are literally refusing to talk to us and kicking us out of
their discord the second we start asking questions about when the founders unlock.
Man.
Okay, well, listen, I think I agree with you.
We need more transparency.
I think that for most people,
unless you just understand the risk,
DeFi is just avoidable right now, right?
I mean, we can focus on the positive side,
which is the ETF and institutional adoption
and maybe some clear legislation and just focus on the top few things that you know are safe. And if when in
doubt, just, I don't know, buy Bitcoin. You can also trade assets, right? So keep that in mind,
just because, look, just because everything is not the brightest right now. And look,
things look great 30 days ago when XRP got approved, right? So it's funny how fast things change. Even though things don't look the rosiest right now from a macro
economic and a crypto perspective, what I will say is there's still obviously a lot of opportunity
within this space. People are sloshing around their money in circles. You just got to figure
out where they're sloshing their money to next, right? So look at ThorChain, for example. ThorChain is up 63% over
the last 30 days, 41% over the last 90 days. So there are still things. Hedera on the back of
a tremendous amount of positive news and updates, whether it would be their partnership with Hyundai
or their partnership with a company called Drop, which got added to this FedNow page.
They've had some good news. So there are still things that are moving the market. There's still
opportunities to trade and there's still opportunities to play the market. But
my question is just what lasts, right? And how long is this FriendTech thing going to last,
for example? I don't know. I mean, I would have said less than a month after using it,
but there is an airdrop. So I'm assuming they're going to keep people. But I even just looked on it this morning and even like the top accounts, I think
are down 20, 30% and it's mostly selling and less buying. And talk about Frentech, when I was digging
into it, I understand they have a bonding curve, but they pitch it as 5% of every transaction fee
goes to Frentech and 5% of every transaction fee goes to the influencer, the person who's minted their token. But when you sell a token, you're not buying it from someone
else. It's being minted. So it's really 95% goes to friend tech and 5% to the influencer. Of course,
there's a burn mechanism, of course. And then they have to have a liquidity pool and the bonding.
But yeah, dude, they're making a ton of fucking money on basically influencers' egos
trying to pump the value of themselves
as unregistered securities.
It's great.
It's going to be great.
The SEC is going to love it.
It's going to make us look good.
Honestly, though, I agree with you.
I think we are headed in the right direction.
It just does seem that right now,
maybe it's because
we're in this bear market,
we're in this lull
that it's just easy to get these small exploits for people on these no name protocols.
But like, I will add one more positive thing.
I speak to a lot of founders of top products in crypto.
I'm talking top 20, top 30 projects.
A lot of them have told me we have a tremendous amount of positive announcements in the tank.
We just we don't want to announce them right now because the market is not good. Right. So we have a ton of, there's a lot coming
to the market. There are a lot of things coming out, but people right now, there's no new buyers.
Why are you going to make, or, you know, no new people interested in participating in the market.
Why are you going to make those announcements? So there's a lot of, I think there, I think,
you know, look, once the market turns, right.
Well, it's going to feed the good news is just going to start pouring in.
Right.
Right.
But so until that time, let's kill off all the garbage.
Right.
And let's push for more transparency.
The purge seven, Josh and Scott.
Yeah.
Love it.
We'll be more positive next time.
I'm on.
I promise.
Yeah.
Guys, you should check out the tie.
I didn't, most of you can't use it, but we do have the newsletter that you can use obviously the daily clothes which i will uh
show again later and then uh follow josh because he's awesome and uh provides me with a lot of
insights and really helpful always a pleasure to have you and go get what i don't can people get
these shirts they want them i see it in the description they can't they can't they they
they're not currently available right now but if if enough people message, uh, um, they were designed by a post underscore trad file on
Twitter. If enough people ping him, maybe he'll make, he'll sell them, but it's not the ties
design. It was done by, by, by Jordan. I don't want royalties for my amazing pitch here, but,
uh, you know, I got my free shirt.
All right, man.
Thank you.
We're going to move on to Chris.
Have a good one, Josh.
Talk to you soon.
Yeah, guys.
Well, listen, we have a whole lot of perspective on why DeFi is broken.
I do like the silver lining that was presented at the end.
But then again, we can switch gears at the back part of the show and just say none of that matters.
Let's look at the charts.
Right.
And I know that Chris and I are both firm believers in that. We missed you last week,
Chris, man. Sorry. No deal. Had some personal things, but I hope all is better. It's great
to have you back. Hey, I appreciate it, man. You can hear me, right? Oh yeah. You sound great.
You sound great. Great. Yeah. No, I mean, real quick, man, you know, when, when you get to the
bottom of the bear market and you know, and you start to get the rally back out, you know, when, when you get to the bottom of the bear market and, you know,
and you start to get the rally back out, you know, this is the way it is. It's the end of the world.
Everything's terrible. Every, you know, it can't get any worse or it's going to continue to get
worse. Right. Um, it's, it's just the opposite of when you're at the tops, you know, everybody
was laser eyes. The first, you know, the really the, the real top, right. It was laser eyes.
It can't stop going on, you know, It was $200,000 in three months.
If you'll remember back, man,
when we were talking in 2017,
as we got into December there,
right around December, oh God,
what was it?
Probably like the first or second week there.
Yeah, right when the CME approved futures.
Well, yeah, well, right before that,
there was somebody had said,
oh, I remember I was talking to you about it.
Somebody had said, oh, you know, Bitcoin to like 80,000 by February.
And I said, man, it was parabolic trap.
It was like parabolic trap.
Do you remember that account?
Oh, my God.
Yeah, it was something.
And I just said, man, I said, this is it.
I said, we might hit 20 right around there.
I said, but this is it.
This is, you know, and it's that it's that same idea where we're at right now.
Everybody's, you know, everything's terrible.
Everything's going down.
And so I'm not overly concerned about it.
It just seems to be, I mean, until it happens, it happens, right?
But it seems to be the normal thing that we usually get.
Yeah.
Well, let's talk about that.
Let's bring out some charts, obviously.
Since last we spoke, we had this sort of, I'll call it a correction,
down from that 28, 30, 31 kind of area we were hanging out, right back to just sub 25.
That, for me, I think even when we both talked about it, kind of, this is sort of my line in the sand.
I'm not saying it makes us like full bear market, but I really want to see the 25-ish area hold because that was that first higher high.
Oh, yeah, that makes it easy.
Yeah, if 25 holds,
that's easy. Then we're like, oh, okay. If it drops below all of a sudden, everybody's
uber bearish, you know, and it doesn't mean that it has to go down, you know, really far and,
you know, and new lows, but everybody's going to start feeling that way. So, um, interestingly,
you know, we've got this Gaussian channel here. And so if we go back on the BLX here toward the beginning of Bitcoin
time here, right? Every time it's gone to red and then to green, you know, that's kind of signaled
that the bottom's in here, right? So we did it, you know, that happened back here in August of 12.
It happened back over here, January of 16, happened again in here, July of 19. And it just happened again here at the end
of last month. So this is the weekly chart. So this doesn't mean that it can't, you know, drop
because as you see on the, on a, what is this? The COVID drop here, right? We we got we got a pretty big pullback um but it's never dropped below
that that low once that is turned green uh and so you know for everybody calling for lower lower you
know if it does okay things are different it is what it is but you know in trading i i think
people i think retail traders tend to get so caught up in this oh i've got to be contrarian
right uh well i'm a contrarian trader you know know, just to be contrarian, but not really understanding what that means. And so they automatically
pick, oh, it's going to do this. It's going to be different this time, you know, and
you just can't get anywhere trading doing that all the time, right? Basically, you do what
generally tends to repeat over and over and over again until it doesn't anymore.
So for now, this is yet just another
thing that suggests that the bottom likely is in. And what's happening now is just noise on
that bigger move, right? Yeah. Now it makes me want to bring this chart up real quick as here,
just really quick before you go on. Go ahead. Because what you just brought up, and I haven't
looked at the Gaussian channel probably since like 2017. So that was good to kind of bring that back. When you look at the having cycle, which I've said a lot of
times, this is just the plain four year cycle. You know, you have this bottom, we have it every
single time, right? And then before the having, you start to rise, but you get this shakeout.
That's the COVID one, higher low, right? And then you go back to this bottom way back here,
you know, you bottomed, you had this nice drift up, but you come down and make a higher low.
That last shakeout before really heading up into the halving and then out of the halving, right?
Happened here.
Happened here.
So we shouldn't be surprised if we get like a move down, you know, maybe 19, 20, something like that.
At some point, I'm talking about the next eight months before heading back up.
That would align with the cycle.
And that sort of aligns with what you were showing there. Even if it drops down to the bottom of that green band,
it's still a higher low in market structure. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so we've talked about
a few different kind of counts we're looking on here. The one I had this kind of way off here is
maybe this is a leading diagonal here. So you get a one one two three four five so this could still be playing out you know and if that happens i mean
you get a 50 pullback around 23 700 you get a 61 around 21 760 yeah i mean we're just at 24 2 on
most exchanges on that drop so i mean that's you know yeah yeah so i mean you the way i'm looking
at it right now at least on this coinbase chart here is uh you know we haven't broken down yet so potentially we've got this one
two one two and then one with a deep two here potentially rallying up right everybody's very
um very bearish right here they think it has to drop down and you know there's a good chance at
bay you know we're we've reached you know retr 90% of this rally up here, but here's my thing. If it does, all I'm doing is looking at this as a one,
two, and then a one with a flat here as a two. And at that point, you know, we're looking at maybe,
you know, this 24, four, or maybe 23, nine 36, that area right there, um, is where I'm looking
for it to potentially dip down to. Um, but you know, that's if this is a one-two
and then a one with a flat here and a two.
And so what I'm just trying to get across here is everybody's very bearish
about how it has to go down to the lows, but this happens all the time, right?
Remember, man, when we were talking back here,
well, back there in 2018, right,
when we were talking down around 3,100 being the low,
and everybody's like, oh, no, it has to go to 1,000, it has to go to 1,000, right? And then it started going up like,100 being the low and it was like, Oh no, it has to go to a thousand has to go to a thousand. Right. And then it started going up
like, Oh, it's definitely getting rejected at 4,000. It's going down below a thousand.
And I said, no, you know, it's going to rally it up there to 6,000. And that's what it did.
And they get 6,000. It was like, Oh no, this is it, man. Now it's going back down to a thousand
or lower. And you know, and that's just, it's the same thing that we see time and time again,
every market, um, nobody's special, you know, everybody kind of does that same thing that we see time and time again, every market. Nobody's special.
You know, everybody kind of does that same thing.
And so, you know, I hesitate when people are very, very bearish.
This drop here, I mean, I'm open to the idea that it could turn down.
We've got those targets, but I'm not of the mind that it definitely has to, right?
This is a pretty capitulative drop here.
And usually on a correction, you know, ABC correction, that's what we would expect is a bigger harder drop like that large candle spread large volume if we're breaking out here if we're breaking out above this uh 26
9 kind of area if we're doing that there's little reason to think that we won't rally all the way up
here to uh around 29 129 28 6 yeah kind of the area the breakdown this would
be the killer path right here man there's the one that gets them right we we kind of sweep the low
here head up to 40 42 then we put in that like uh 20 000 and that would be exactly what we kind of
saw here right yeah yeah way down and then probably into the habit i mean that's the one that that's
the killer so you get both the 40 and the 20, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Now, I don't think necessarily we're going to do that.
Me either.
I'm just saying that's the pain train right there as well.
Yeah, yeah.
Well, yeah, I mean, if it did, you know, again, just shaking people out left and right.
You know, people are getting in at the lows.
They're not very committed.
Most people aren't.
You know, they're kind of if they're willing to get in, they're scared, but they're getting
in anyway, which means that anything happens and they get freaked out.
They get short, you know, these close, close stop losses and everything.
You know, it's, it's just humans tend to be humans, right?
They tend to do the thing that they do.
So nothing's different.
Any, any, you know, again, doing this almost 30 years, every market, uh, every product, it's everybody,
everybody does the same thing. People act the same way. So, yeah, can we, that's it. So, uh,
your feelings that we could be putting in a bottom here, maybe we go slightly lower and
then back to sort of the bullish path that you talked about. Can we talk about BNB? I know we
were kind of, uh, I didn't even know if you had the chart, but, uh, Josh and I were talking about
it. So just to cover this really quickly from a fundamental perspective, this is the FUD. I have not seen any substantiated
information. There are some wallets out there. People are saying that Binance is not fully
backed, that they're illiquid and basically surviving on BNB, much like FTX did with FTT.
I am not saying that's true. I'm telling you what is being said. And that apparently if it
dropped below 220, which it already has, there was going to be this massive liquidation cascade
because that's where they were being defended. And so the rumor is that Binance is selling off
their Bitcoin to buy BNB to defend that level. But we're at 213 right now and I didn't see anything
die below 220, which was everyone was watching DeFi for this loan. So I'm not buying it. What I personally see is us sitting
on a major support. I don't know which way that's going to go, but major area of support.
Yeah, man. You know, again, that's why I was like, well, yeah, let's go and talk about,
you know me, I like to pick up this stuff, right? Like someone saw was down there, you know,
at the end of December was down there at $9. I was talking about that, you know, when GBTC,
everybody was like, oh my gosh, they're going to sell and they're going to dump all the Bitcoin
on the market. And I said, no, watch, it's going to go up and went up. Right. And I kind of see
this potentially is the same thing. Again, no substantiated claims, right? And there's a lot of,
oh, you know, this is what's going on. This is what's going on. But nobody's actually
been able to, you know, definitively prove that that's what's happening.
And so, you know, we come here and again, you know, deep pullback.
So we can't, you know, ignore the fact that, you know, that the count is in jeopardy here.
But, you know, I've got this possible, you know, this idea of this one, two here.
Again, around a 90% pullback.
We've got this great big bullish divergence right now showing up on the daily here from June, just prior to mid-June to right now.
So what's that, two months of bullish divergence on that?
We've basically got a bit of a bullish SFP over here on this drop down the other day below this June 30th over here of 22.
We've got that slight dip below, rally back up.
We want to see it go up.
For me, it has to go.
We need to break above 248 to really start going, okay, I think that maybe that bottom may be in. So I'm not saying, you know, it's definitely not going to go up
or it's definitely going to go down or anything like that.
I'm just saying, listen, I've got a count here.
It says that we could be good.
You know, there's a lot of stuff going out there,
but nobody's given any real evidence.
So, you know, for me, it's the chart.
If the chart breaks 248, I'm really interested in that thing popping out,
you know, above 400 and continuing up
yeah there's the look that i had on it the massive range basically from that all-time high back to i
don't know 211 it's uh 211 to 692 okay that's a really uh gratuitously large range you had this
sort of bear flag here which was pretty clear a little long breakdown but i mean you're at the
range lows with now a long wick down yesterday like literally a you know daily reversal type candle no bullish divergence there on the daily
at least locally but that big one you talked about and now popping back in there i mean if
candles start closing back in this range you gotta think this is heading back up to the mid-range
yeah i mean you know it's just it's just you know unless there is some fundamental thing
in this collapses like you could have been looking at the chart and then FTX collapses. So I'm not saying you buy this,
this is risky, right? With all the Binance fund. Right, right, right. Yeah, no, definitely. I mean,
it's not like you just kind of jump in there and you just go, Oh, well, and Hilly and do whatever.
I mean, um, you know, that's, that's not the proper way to trade. Um, but you, you get an
idea out there and you're looking, okay, well, here's an initial validation level.
If we get through that, well, then things start looking a bit more like this is actually what's happening.
If it breaks down, then it breaks down.
It's invalidated.
That's the way it is.
So, you know, it's a bit of a sit and watch game here.
Now, you know, a lot of traders that come in, they're not really comfortable with the idea that, hey, I can't just open up a chart and find a trade and jump right in.
You know, they don't like to sit around and wait.
But that's what a lot of trading is.
It's saying, OK, well, here's the structure.
Here's what we're looking at.
Now, what could potentially happen?
And at what point would I be, you know, more likely to enter than not?
It's not like, oh, I'm just going to buy right here because, look, it's possibly this.
You know, and so, you know, again, there are no guarantees in trading
other than you're going to lose money from time to time. the newer you are the more money you're going to lose and the
more often you're going to lose it right so risk management most important thing and we didn't get
to talk about this because uh we haven't spoken since uh last week but this is the four-hour
bitcoin i don't know if you saw but rsi in the four-hour hit five it's the lowest it's ever been
in history even yeah even though any, even though it was at two,
like on the push. If you weren't looking at the line chart, there was a point when RSI was sitting
at two. I mean, I've never seen that, right? I'm sure you've seen things. I've certainly never seen
it here. So listen, that means that bullish divergence is inevitable, right? Because you're
not going lower than five RSI again. You're just not, right? Probably. So you got this big bullish divergence, four hour, look at six hour. It's also there. Look at 12 hour. I don't think 12
hour has not made the lower low yet. So I would still be watching that. But daily, if this curves
up, this is a lower low on price and a higher low on RSI. You're talking about daily all the way
down effectively showing bullish divergence. But you also have hidden bearish divergence.
So to me, this right now is just,
and that's the newer div.
So for now, this is showing major indecision.
I think so.
But like, if I had to guess a path,
which who wants to do that?
But I think we do, you know, one of these.
So we'd make one more low
and then pop up with a really strong,
you know, back into oversold.
I don't know.
But like, this looks,
even with the hidden bearish divergence,
we are, it looks like we are bottoming. I'm not know, but like this looks, even with the hidden bearish divergence, we are,
it looks like we are bottoming. I'm not saying it's the bottom, but it'll be really hard. It'll be really hard to, you know, I mean, daily is now oversold for seven days. Yeah. And the daily
chart doesn't really stay that long. You know, all the times that you can, you pop out oversold
pretty fast on the daily generally. Right. And you had bearish divergence.
Yeah.
The level was from COVID low, right?
So yeah.
And to be clear, you had massive bearish divergence when it hit overbought.
So that was as toppy as it gets, right?
So I don't know.
I think that all things aside, the way you literally taught me to look for potential
bottoms, those indicators are showing.
Chris really taught me about bullish divergence, by the way. It was something I used, but he taught me how look for potential bottoms. Those indicators are showing. Chris really taught me
about bullish divergence, by the way. It was something I used, but he taught me how to use it.
Right. And it's the idea that it's a process, right? Tops are processes, bottoms are processes.
They're not the absolute lowest price, the absolute highest price are just events.
And yet, and you have very, very, very little chance of even getting lucky enough to actually
hit it. Yet that's what most retail traders go for, right? They're like, oh,, and you have very, very, very little chance of even getting lucky enough to actually hit it.
Yet that's what most retail traders go for, right?
They're like, oh, I need that.
No, just learn to identify when the, you know, when the price actually started to look like it's bottoming or it's topping.
And, you know, work with that.
If you do that, you're going to be a lot more successful.
Stop trying to get every little penny on there, right?
Is there anything else you're specifically watching now?
Or are you pretty much just waiting to see what Bitcoin does? I'm waiting to see what Bitcoin does personally.
So, yeah, I mean, well, I've got Ethereum real quick here. Ethereum is interesting. We've got
this, I've been talking about this for a while now. We've got this potential barrier triangle
or ascending triangle here. We've got this higher lows consolidating toward this resistance. You can see that volume.
There we go.
Volume has dropped off as you're consolidating.
That's what you usually look for.
And then we have this descending channel here,
of which we dipped just below it here back on Monday.
So maybe potentially a throw under here,
but we're not getting a lot of movement yet.
We want to see a nice stronger movement up here and rally back out.. But I mean, if we are all of a sudden, you know,
if we're breaking out through this, um, you know, this swing low over here. So back above the
weekly pivot in this, uh, 2159 area. I mean, there's little to no reason to think that we're
not, you know, heading up here to 45, you know, 40, 45, 50 up here toward the, uh,
the all-time high there. So it's large structure, you know, 40, 45, 50, up here toward the all-time high there.
So it's large structure.
You know, we're holding this support so far.
You know, we'll see what happens.
This is the weekly chart, by the way, here.
But, you know, again, we're looking to see, does this hold here?
It's looking pretty decent.
You know, the last week and this week, we're getting these wicks here.
Down into this, you know, this support. There's all this demand right here. So, WICs here. Down into this support.
There's all this demand right here.
So, I mean, high volume node, you know?
Man, I think the possibility is there.
But we'll see.
We'll see as long as that's holding there.
The only other thing I'm really kind of watching at the moment here is the S&P.
These are the E-minis for the S&P.
You know, I've been talking about this being an ABC since since we did this and the breakout we're doing all great here um it looks like
it's possible this is a wxy instead of an abc which would mean um or i'm sorry uh this abc here
gives it a one two three maybe a four and if so we. So, you know, still the 38-2 is right
around that 43-35 area. But I think that's it. You know, I think we're just about there. If we're
not at the bottom, four is finishing up. It could, you know, it could dip to 50% at 42-41, but
ultimately then rally back up for, you know, this is just four of three to get you up there around 48-11, which gets you, you know, right up there around that all-time high.
So, I mean, you know, it looks good still.
And, you know, everybody's worried about things happening and, you know, the economy.
And everybody's kind of like, oh, you know, all this has to happen.
But I don't know, man.
The count looks pretty legit at the moment with what it's doing there.
So I'm looking for the rally you know
the continue right from where we are or if we break on down looking at this you know 38 to 50
to get us that push up toward that all-time high there uh and then of course further up so yeah the
dollar was looking crazy strong actually i was looking at this morning it was at like 103.95
but i think it actually has dropped a bit today now i didn't even see that while we were on the
show so stocks obviously showing a bit of strength bitcoin just doing
its own thing yeah bitcoin just you know look at me over here absolutely all right man well i know
now we're up against time so uh looking forward to see where we're at next wednesday obviously
guys everybody please follow tx west capital on twitter and you you can join and really learn from him like I did. Is it how to trade to win still?
Texas West Capital.
No, it's TexasWest.Capital now.
Yeah.
TexasWest.Capital.
So guys, go check that out and you can learn from Chris like I did because I just stole
all my ideas from him anyways, guys.
You're just hearing my regurgitations, man.
Thank you.
I hope all goes well on the personal front and I'll talk to you next week, man.
All right. Take care, buddy. Yeah, man. man thank you i hope uh all goes well on the personal front and i'll talk to you next week man all right take care everybody yeah man it's fun to have these conversations right at the beginning we can tell you how everything's broken then we can look at a chart and say it might be fine for
price so that's exactly where i want to be and that's uh where where i stand at the moment too
i think my uh technical analysis aligns largely with what what chris is saying i just think we're
not going to get the huge huge move until afterving, and that's totally fine because we can be patient.
Otherwise, guys, heading over to Twitter Spaces right now to talk about privacy at 1015 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time. Really excited for that conversation. More important now than ever. So
I'll see you guys over there, and I'll see you guys back here tomorrow. Peace.