The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Inflows SURGE Despite Market Sell Off! Shake Out Or New Lows Incoming?
Episode Date: January 19, 2026Markets are flashing warning signs as Bitcoin struggles to gain traction and stocks wobble amid growing concern that Trump’s latest policy moves could trigger a liquidity shock. In this episode we b...reak down the weak BTC price action, rising macro stress and why traders are suddenly bracing for a potential liquidity dump that could hit both crypto and traditional markets at the same time.
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Almost $800 million liquidated from DGens in the crypto market over the last 24 hours.
Last week, Bitcoin saw record inflows.
Everyone's talking about Greenland, yet silver continues to rise.
We're going to unpack it all with guest Lawrence Lepard on Macro Monday.
Let's go.
Well, let's get to it.
Thanks for joining us.
Do you like Lawrence or Larry?
No, I'm Larry at all you guys.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
But, you know, it's, you know, being a major book.
author with uh you know hardly it's important to show respect from time to time Mike it's great
that you're there I guess the office closed today for MLK day you can hear us right I don't know
we can't hear Mike good morning hello yeah day off today so obviously no morning meeting today so
let's let's I don't know where we want to start do we want to start with what's going on in
the precious metals world we want to start with the you know continuing
you know deficits all the other crap do i talk about greenland where do you want to go larry you're
the guest so what why don't you start this well i don't know i mean we probably should talk the
precious metals i mean if you kind of want to look at a market where there's a lot of stuff going on
and a lot of debate about what it is that's probably the top and that's an area i know a little bit
about so you know i can comment on it um yes i'll give my perspective from what i've seen and
then you guys can react i'd like to know what mike thinks too um i see it as the moves in gold and silver
are really quite historic. I mean, kind of stunning, you know, silver up 150 plus percent last
year, gold up 60 percent. And they seem to not be relenting. I mean, this morning, gold was up
another 70 or 80, silver, another three bucks. I mean, and I know a lot of people think,
well, this looks like a bubble. It's the same as the Hunt brothers and same as 2011. It's going
to collapse. It's a parabola. And I don't really see it that way. I see it as actually a, it's
funny. People call this the monetary debasement trade, and I get anger. I react to that
with it's not a trade, guys. It's a monetary debasement secular trend that's going to last for
decades. And so, you know, I had some Bitcoin friends saying, hey, should I short silver? It seems
awfully overextended. And my reaction was, boy, you ought to be careful because you don't really know
where the top is, you know. And what's really going on, and this is true. And the prices would not
be doing what they're doing if this was not a fact, is that there's a scramble for physical silver.
You can see the deliveries that are taken off of the comics and how they've grown this past year.
And then you can see the deliveries taken out of London.
Same story.
They're large.
I don't have the numbers right in front of me.
And, you know, you can see the premiums people are paying overseas.
I mean, the silver price in China and the silver price in Dubai are substantially higher than the comics price.
You know, I mean, like 10%, 8 to 10% to 10% higher.
And so this to me indicates a real tightness in the silver market.
Now, is it going to go on forever?
I don't know.
But I do know that silver was suppressed for a long, long time, and that 50 was a top that
held for, I don't know, 40, 50 years almost.
And when you break through a top that's been held for that many years, you know, you don't
just go up 50 percent.
You can go up a lot.
And that's kind of the process we're in.
And to me, I mean, both of you, I think, will agree that this is all occurring against
the backdrop of, you know, huge monetary debasement that only looks like it's going to get worse.
I mean, the most notable thing I've focused on is, you know, Trump's aggressiveness in so many areas,
and you can debate, you know, the good and the bad of that.
And I think there is some good and there's some bad.
But one thing's for sure is none of this is free.
You know, he said, you know, the defense budget has got to go from a trillion to 1.5 trillion.
Well, okay.
Where's that coming from?
I think we all know the answer to the printing press.
And so I think that's what the metals are reacting to.
So I'll lead off with that and then let Mike weigh in.
I mean, I just, it's funny.
When you watch the news flow, it's almost like if you're watched the news that there are,
there are two, there's two news flows.
They're equally insane.
And I think most of the actual rational people have no idea what the hell's going on.
It's, it's crazy.
I mean, Scott had a post a week ago saying, how could, you know, if you showed the same exact video,
to 50 million people, 25 million will be definitive that someone in the government murdered another human being,
and 25 million people will say that there was a crazy person trying to be, you know,
trying to kill a law enforcement officer, and he reacted in self-defense.
Exactly.
And that, but here's the problem.
One, irrational people, if you now, if you stripped it out and you tried to talk to people without their dopamine level,
mean levels going. We just tried to talk to people analytically. What you'd end up with is
if the Trump name had nothing to do with it, if all you were talking about was just abstract
and we did this before we got to this hyper-politicized era, and you said, hey, should people be
trying to obstruct law enforcement from getting rid of abducting criminals? And the answer is,
and what would happen if you did that? You know the answer and pretty much everyone would say,
well, that would be bad.
On the other hand, if you said to people,
could law enforcement officers be stopping people
to ask them for their papers without any probable cause,
would that be reasonable or would it ever?
And everyone, and literally, everybody would agree
that neither of these things make sense.
Yet that's where we are.
Now, why do I mention?
I mention this, because what is the dollar?
The dollar is a piece of paper backed by what?
full faith and credit of the United States government. What happens when the majority of people,
and we are way past the majority, have no respect for the government or fear what the government
could be, whether if you're a Republican, you're terrified of a president AOC or a president
Newsom and you think the whole thing's going to be a House of Cards. If you're a Democrat,
you're terrified that President Trump, President, you know, whoever, you know, Vance is going to
have jackbooted thugs knocking down your door. And all of this is a lack, is a, is a
wavering of confidence. And by the way, the same thing is happening throughout Western Europe. I mean,
UK is just is is is even a bigger dumpster fire. It's after. And the West has a lack of confidence.
And so all of that, you know, contributes. So that's the backdrop. Now that all said,
we still have to trade this stuff, but we still on people. You know, so without giving anything to do
about what's happening in the actual markets, I figured I'd let you go first, Mike, but you dropped
off. So that's why I was filling the space. But that backdrop matters. So, Mike, you know, look,
you know, here we are. We've been talking about silver since it first peaked its head above 70.
We had the CME do what it normally would do to break the bubble. It obviously didn't work because
we're now $13 above where it was with the CME first high margin requirements and then did it again.
What do you think is going? What are your people talking about?
I appreciate the way.
You start off.
You can't hear me?
Yes, you're able to hear me now.
Yeah, that's why I hopped off because I had to reset my stream, but everything you described to me describes an environment of discombobulation.
And the key thing that stands out is stock market volatility is too low for that environment.
And one thing that I heard already this morning on TV is the first person to say, buy the dip.
I love that.
Next quotes we should be late waiting to hear is healthy correction.
The stock record, we're so overdue for that.
And the bottom line is what we start out with Larry is we have the metals gone parabolic.
And most notably led by silver.
Silver's the devil's metal for a reason.
So first, Dave, let's have some fun.
Let's start out with a wage.
I will short to you silver right now, $1 worth at 93, and I'll bet to you by a year from now, the price will be lower.
The reason I say that is I'm just pointing out what happens.
when people say, oh, you're not focused on the fundamentals.
What was a deficit in all the metals now, within a year or even less, will shift to a surplus.
It's just a matter of time.
Because what you have is supply, demand, price model, and price just went parable.
To not shift your models to look forward from a deficit to a surplus would be silly.
History shows that way.
So people like us who've been had rocks sitting in their accounts forever, and finally they're giving you some major umph,
you lighten up. I don't say short. Now, I'm willing to suggest to shorten copper because I think it
reached a pretty good level. For copper to stay above $6 a pound or $13,000 a ton is a major statement
for demand pool global economic growth. And I think it's responsible to be kind of short against that
for normal one-third correction. I'm willing to say about Bitcoin, because Bitcoin and all the
cryptos have rolled over, 200-day mover in average, just the facts. They rolled over. We've had beginning
in the year euphoria. And as my point, the key focus, I think, for this year is volatility will go up in the
stock market, you should be seeking opportunities to take on good risk-adjusted positions.
And the only opportunity so far have been, I think, risk-award advice to me so far as to sell
a little Bitcoin in their rally, sell a little bit of copper in that rally.
And it's not a trade.
It's part of the macro.
If those trades work, the whole thing starts tilting lower for normal correction, which I
think it's the time for in the stock market this year.
Maybe down 10%.
It's a shocker to say that.
But what emboldens me to say that's what's happening in precious metals.
We have never had gold and all the precious metals, but those monly gold rally at this velocity with stock market value until they're staying this low.
So there's the indicators.
I look at it.
It's going to be a manner of time.
And now we have this completely emboldened president, as you can see, who has some, I'll say this delicately, some psychopathic tendencies.
And he's got a lot of psychopaths.
Psychopants following him who's going to be emboldened.
There's only one key force that will push him.
I think back. First midterms, he's got to hurry up before the midterms. That's probably what's
happening in Greenland and the stock market. If the stock market drops 10, 20%, he'll lighten up on all his
policies. And shouldn't say it. It just win. And I think that's what precious metals are
figuring out. So I look at that the ounces of gold equal to an S&P 500. Now it's right about
1.49. It's broken below that high that was set in 1929 in September, 1.54. That's scary stuff.
And so for now, as a macro strategist, I look at this market as a tremendous trading environment.
As long as you don't come on overweight long and be offset right away.
And I think this environment so far, the only two opportunities I see so far this year is kind of fading that euphoria at the beginning of the year,
sell little risk assets like Bitcoin and copper and make them prove you wrong.
If they prove you wrong, it's in a different environment.
If they keep tickling down from these resistances, to me, that's the done.
nominal slowing in for typical post-deflationary, post-inflationary cycle, which I think is starting in gold.
So warned us that last year.
Last year, Bitcoin, crypto's picking, warned us.
And so far I'm just going on with those flows and make them prove me wrong.
So I want to pick on two of the threads before I unleash Larry because there's something in there that I think that I've seen Larry use various.
letter words, expletive.
No, no, no, no, not.
But two things I want to say.
First, as far as the bet, I don't want to make a silver straight bet, although I think
I'd win that one.
What I will say is silver relative to gold will be higher.
And I think that it is, there's a big, there's a lot of reasons for that.
If you, and I keep saying this before, but if you look at the 70s, when all this shit
started when Nixon closed the gold window, silver to gold in the decade average around 35.
and we're still in the 50s, which tells me silver has farther to run than gold does.
I do think that there's a reasonable shot.
I've said it before.
I think gold will bang against the 5,000 level, probably fail there the first time.
I don't know where it goes to.
I think when you talk about these things, the only thing that really matters,
and this is where Larry I want to go in, is the denominator.
It's like, what are you saying?
What you're really saying isn't necessarily, in the case of gold, is gold going higher
is the dollar going lower? Or in fact, are all Fiat currencies going lower because governments are
just printing hysterically. You talk about Greenland. I mean, the one thing I want to say is it is
not psychotic to if people tell you, if your entire cabinet is basically saying that the most
important thing that China is holding over our head like a hammer every single day in the geopolitical,
I don't want to call it war because it's a soft war, but in the geopolitical, but in the geopolitical
power struggle is rare earths and the largest and the largest deposits of rare earths on on the
planet are in greenland that the united states thinks it is massively important for us to control that
and not for it to fall under chinese control that is what he's being told now would i do it the way
he's doing it absolutely not i think there are better ways to handle it but that is the backdrop and make
no mistake. That is literally, you know, Trump basically says has, you know, has two modes,
forwards and, and stop maybe. There's not a whole lot of backward. There's not a whole lot of side to
side. And so he's basically saying, listen, this is what we want. So, you know, when we call it
psychotic or deranged, I don't know, I would call it, the one way you could call it is incredibly
straightforward. I don't think that's particularly great in internet in geopolitics. But Greenland is
exceedingly important for the next century in terms of getting rare earths. And that's what it's
about. And so, you know, what all the other stuff doesn't matter. I mean, you can, you know,
you talk about NATO and blah, blah, blah. I mean, NATO needs us more than we need them. That's just
reality. And, and you can't, you can't get around that. And so you could throw it,
you could throw a hissy fit like a lot of the people are in politics, but frankly, that's not
what it's about. But let's, let's talk about gold and silver for a heartbeat. Silver's in structural
deficit. I just looked it up with all the plans that are announced, assuming every single one of the
miners and all the smelters that are being built come online in 2026, it's still going to end the year
in structural deficit. Maybe by 2028 we could catch up possibly, but there's no one who's projecting
that. And so the question when you talk about it is if the smelters are running full out and they're
pretty damn close to it, then even if I turn around and I hand them my pre-64 silver that I have
sitting in two different places, three different places, actually, and I bring it all in,
will that matter? Well, all I could tell you is this, two pieces of anecdotes.
Anecote number one is if you, the U.S. Mint obviously doesn't think they're going to have enough
because they can't sell enough of it. And the premium that they are selling silver at is
off the freaking charts. I've never seen anything like this before. I'm wondering,
should I go open an eBay store for my monster boxes for the stuff that they start selling tubes of
silver eagles? Should I? I mean, the answer is no, because I think I told you I think silver is going
higher. But the truth is it's not a bad idea. That premium might make a whole lot of sense.
But the other thing is there's way more ads. I once a few weeks ago actually asked for a quote
from Appmex what they would call it to buy a small amount of silver. And they gave me a shitty quote.
told them basically to go jump in a lake because they wanted me to sell it to them
in a discount and I told them to go to hell. Now I have since gotten three different outfits.
I'm not sure how they got it, but it's the internet. So, you know, you know we're all the
product. And now I get texts. I get emails. I get phone calls. Hey, do you want to sell silver?
We'll offer you this, that and the other thing from three different outfits. So it is not the same
as what happened when gold first made its run,
you know, the first couple times gold made its run, Mike, we all saw it.
Cash for gold was all you saw in CNBC and whatnot.
That's not what's happening now, right?
You know, I mean, that is what's happening.
They're advertising it, and it's not the other way around.
So we'll see.
Anyway, I've said a lot for you to unpack, you know, Larry.
I mean, obviously, the denominator is what I always say.
Yeah, well, let me just react to a couple things, both you said.
But, I mean, first of all, yes, we are in the fourth turning, we know it because everyone's screaming and everyone else.
And, you know, this is what happens.
It's when you break the money and make the system unfair, you know, everyone gets really tribal and gets pissed off.
And it's awful.
It's not what this country was all about for so many years.
It's gotten really, really bad.
And I think it really comes down to just a simple issue, which is the loss of trust in, you know, our institutions.
and the rules of society.
And it's because we've watched, you know, government and so many institutions abuse our trust,
you know, from, and just case after case.
I mean, the vaccines are effective.
The vaccines are safe.
I mean, the list is as long as our arm.
And so, you know, thank God for the Internet.
Thank God for people's ability to broadcast the truth and people's ability to discover the truth by doing their own research.
And, you know, people are pushing back.
and rightfully so.
Mike, I agree with you.
The stock market is an enormous bubble.
And I also agree with you, there will be a time
and the price of silver will come down
when there will be a supply response.
I would just add, and this tub deals a little with what Dave said,
it's unbelievably hard to start producing silver from scratch.
I mean, there's not, we've underinvested for 20 years in this industry,
particularly since 2011.
The Cappex going into this, Tabi Costas, got some great charts on it.
The CAPEX going into the silver industry has been completely starved.
And you can actually see Mexico and Peru, which are two of the biggest American producers,
or the American continent producers of silver.
I've seen their production decline substantially over the last 10, 15 years.
And so it's going to take a lot of time.
From the time when you find a deposit to the time you have silver coming out of the door,
that's 10 to 15 years.
So, you know, at the margin, yeah, everybody who's got a mine operating,
they'll try and, you know, they'll run at three shifts, they'll, you know, maybe drill a bit more,
they'll add some capacity. I mean, don't get me wrong. You know, supply will go up, but not as quick
as, you know, a lot of people think. And so I think it's a very hard, it's a fool's, it's a
mug's game to say, how high is silver going to go? I mean, if you want my opinion, I think it's
going to go to about $500 an ounce on this cycle. So, you know, if you're short it, good luck.
And I get there because I think gold is going to go to about $10,000 an ounce.
And I think you're going to have a 20 to one gold to silver ratio, which is a more,
which you were alluded to earlier day, you know, that silver is increasing vis-a-vis gold.
And, you know, the reason, and everybody listening to this probably thinks I'm nuts and probably
thinks, how can those numbers possibly be right?
And the only thing I would say is it's because of all the paper silver that got created.
I mean, it's really amazing to me.
You can go and look at the exchanges.
And we mine about 800 million ounces of silver a year.
The world, that's the entire world, minds about it.
And, you know, we get scrap silver equal to about another 200 million ounces.
And that still leaves us in a deficit because we're using about 1.1 billion ounces.
And, you know, we're running out of Grandma's T sets to melt down.
That's the scrap silver.
You know, and I know that because I go to my local coin dealer and he's got T sets stacked up.
And I think he probably pays Grandma 50 cents on the dollar.
And then he sends it to a smelter and they pay him 70 cents.
and the dollar or whatever for the market price.
But I guess the point I'm trying to make is, you know, silver is tight.
And I don't think anybody really knows how high it can go.
I'm not suggesting you buy it here.
And I'm not suggesting it's a lock that it goes to 500.
But I think it's a lock that it goes to 100.
Well, a couple things I will say.
We will never see 50 again, in my opinion.
Never.
50 is long gone.
We broke through it.
We could correct back to just above 50.
That's not unusual in any bull market, as you know, Mike.
you get a breakout somebody correct back and you test the breakout but i i think we're going to
live in a new reality where probably a hundred is going to be the low end and i don't know what the
high end is going to be so um and that's just because of the supply you know demand of subpoena back
to the back to the paper silver i want to make a point here so we mine 800 million ounces
so there are exchanges where you can see like the london they they trade 800 million ounces of
silver in three hours there are days when they trade twice the annual silver production now what
that tells you is that that's a lot of paper silver. I mean, we're, you know, there are a lot of
derivatives contracts betting on the price of silver that if somebody on the other side who thought
they bought a contract and said, great, give it to me. You know, it's been estimated there are four or
five times annual supply in potential derivative demand. And I think it could be even larger than
that. So, so I don't know. I mean, there, you know, I guess what I would say is I think the
shorts are playing with fire here. And I actually have gone further on Twitter. I said, and a lot of
people criticize me for making this statement because they thought it was hyperbolic.
But I said, wouldn't it be ironic if silver is the Lehman Brothers of this cycle?
As we all know, Lehman Brothers kind of was what truly made the 2008 go critical.
And, you know, what if there are some huge banks that, you know, are on the wrong side of the
silver trade and it will be wiped out and their governments will be forced to either bail them out,
close them out or do force majeure i mean and we've seen force majeure right in 2020 the nickel
market did going up two or three x you know in in the span of a week and you know the lmea the
london metals exchange was on the wrong side of it and there were 12 billion dollars of losses
among nickel dealers in london people who were short it and you know people had cornered it and
they pushed it up and what did the lmee do they canceled the trades they literally canceled the trades
and said sorry yeah you bought it and you should have 12 billion of games but we're not giving
it to you. Those don't count. And so, you know, you've got the U.S. government saying it's a strategic
mineral. You've got, you know, China competing for it, we're competing for it. We're all now in this
great power competition where there's China, us, and Russia all competing for our spheres of the world.
I mean, one of the things I actually worry about is one day the government wakes up and does a 60102
on silver and says, you know, we need this. We need it for weapons. We need it for other things.
SLV holders, you're in good, you know, you're in luck. We're going to send you cash.
at the last trade of SLV and all that silver that SLV holds,
that now belongs to the U.S. government.
It's a strategic stockpile.
So, you know, there's a lot of stuff going on here that makes this not an easy call
as to where silver is going to go next.
And I would take your $1 bet on lower than $91 in a year.
I don't think, I mean, you could be right.
There could be a pullback.
But I think that, you know, I really think that people who were thinking of shorting this.
I mean, it would be like sorting VW or shorting.
in GameStop. You just don't know how, in a short squeeze, you don't know where the top is.
I guess is the point. So, Mike, you want to, you want to respond?
But prudent investors who are on top of it?
Well, I agree with that. But prudent investors are on top of what you have.
Having said all that, I will add. I have a lot of silver and I'm starting to sell some of it.
I mean, I am starting to take profits. I mean, and this is silver that we bought it four,
four, six, eight, ten. Because you never, you don't know what the top is. You don't know what the
bottom. Yeah. And so, so yeah, I mean, I'm not a buyer of silver here, although I think it'll go
higher. And I've got so much of it that I'm probably a, you know, a marginal seller of it. But this is,
you know, I treat this the way I treat mining stocks. When I get up 5 to 10x, I start selling them,
even if I think they're going up 20x. Because you just, you have to as a prudent manager of
capital. So, so that's one thing I, we think our audience would prefer, we disagree. But we all
agree on this if you've been saying those kind of same bullish things that you said for over a decade which i have
and metals um you're supposed to light and the thing about silver that's changed it's 60% industrial demand now is no longer the old silver it's
much more in a bucket of copper industrial metals and never underestimate adam smith's invisible hand i did
enjoy whipping that book out back in 2022 when people fall in call for crude oil to stay above a hundred dollars a barrel and
corn to stay above $8.00.
Yeah, that's true.
No, it's the opposite.
Basically, it's silver similar to
crypto was a year ago.
And this could be an enduring peak for decades of history as a guy.
So don't underestimate.
And so if you're supposed to take all those little deficit things
you've read and heard about when you bought it at 28
at last year, which is lower than the peak in 1979,
and say, thank you what you're doing, you'll lighten up and be very equal.
50% corrections, 10% days in silver should be happening soon.
So what's kind of piggyback from there, it's the whole metal sector.
We launched the Bloomberg, Bloomberg Metals Index in 2018.
It's the best place to invest, but now it's like gone up too much.
And then you'll bring on that stuff.
All the things you're saying, there's always good reasons for rallies.
Then you have to look forward.
But I think what you said, Larry's the prudent thing, those of us who have been
long and forever and lighten up.
But here's a key thing I want to point out.
I got completely wrong last year.
I did not think that gold and silver ratio would drop below 80.
It's at 50 right now.
So Dave, I'll take the other side of that trade.
That's one key thing to remember about silver.
Like I mentioned, now more industrial than it's ever been,
is the bottom line for silver to outperform gold.
The U.S. stock market has to go up almost always historically,
and volatility has to stay low.
So you see my problem there.
I think that ratio is more likely to go back towards 80.
Is that 50 now than head towards 20?
Part because I'm bullish on the stock market volatility going to 40.
So let's unpack that for a second.
So silver is an industrial metal.
Check what industries.
That's the key.
And so, you know, we have a world where we have the administration, who still has three years,
wants to goose the defense budget.
Well, what are the industries that need silver?
Well, it's pretty straightforward.
Number one with a bullet is defense.
some crazy amount of silver goes into every, every tomahawk missile, et cetera, et cetera.
Number two is electronics, and number three is renewable power, right?
So, you know, battery production and anodes, et cetera, all your AI data centers,
the amount of silver that goes into all this stuff, crazy amounts.
The reason we're in a structural deficit, and the reason that we can't catch up is because
the newer industries are the ones that's demanding silver.
It's the best electrical conductor.
Well, you haven't really even mentioned, Dave.
I mean, the two data points that I think are very interesting.
One is that solar, I mean, you really can't.
I mean, the Chinese have talked about using copper and solar panels,
but they haven't proven they can do it yet.
Solar panels need a lot of silver.
And, you know, if Chinese solar demand continues the growth,
the way it has been growing historically,
China would consume like 60% of annual production in 10 years.
you know right so so that's that's one and the more important the other one that's really kind of on the
horizon but could be huge is toshiba samsung these guys have come up with a battery an automobile
battery that that requires silver that could charge rapidly and have a lot more mileage and and i mean
and and and so you know and it's going to need a lot of silver per battery and so um that's a source
of demand now they're not commercial with that yet so that's a little further out but but to that point
here's an interesting data point.
Samsung went out, one of the companies I'm invested in,
Samsung went out and at market rates put a $10 million investment.
It's a silver developer.
They're going to have a mine that'll be operating soon.
So we will invest $10 million in you,
privately locked up at today's market value.
And in exchange, you've got to agree to sell all your silver at market to us
for X number of years.
That's interesting.
Companies do that when they're worried about supply.
And so it's a real, you know, this is, we're not making this up.
I mean, this is a real supply demand issue.
And, and, you know, is there some froth in it?
Sure.
I mean, is there some speculation in it?
Sure.
But there's also a structural thing.
And it's, I agree with you, Mike.
I mean, the one that's the most interesting to me and it's kind of an enigma.
I mean, the stock market is way overvalued and the stock market should correct this year.
I think there's a likelihood it will correct this year unless, unless and less and less,
Trump quote unquote runs it hot.
And he's mentioned that he intends to run it hot.
I mean, you know, they know that if the stock market turns down, deficits go up,
he doesn't get reelected, all of the above.
And so this is why he's tried to get so much control in the Fed.
You know, he wants people in there that he knows will do things that will help him with his agenda,
which is to push the stock market up.
And, you know, I don't know how he's going to do it,
but I wouldn't bet, given how aggressive he is, I wouldn't bet against him doing it,
and I wouldn't bet against the stock market going up.
But what I take away from that is if that's the case and he quote unquote runs it hot,
there's no way to run it hot without having a lot of inflation, right?
I mean, you've got to have money to feed the beast and more money.
Which means you're not going to get elected.
Yeah, exactly.
Well, it's exactly what's going to happen.
I mean, you know, it's, look, there's only, right now it doesn't matter.
If people talk about, well, he needs to do this for the,
the news. The reality is from a news perspective, from the things that that might be, you know,
coming to a head between now and, say, the summer, because that's, you know, by September,
the midterms are more or less sealed. The things that are coming to ahead are actually quite a bit of
it is positive, but it won't matter. If people look at their standard of living and say,
my cost of food and X and Y, food, medical care, et cetera, what I care about is going up and my
salaries are not. The Democrats win. We get two years of impeachment this and this drama, that,
you know, and nothing happens in Congress. And effectively, everything grinds to a halt.
Now, as macro analysts, we have to ask ourselves a simple question. What is, what does Wall Street,
what does the stock market love more than anything else in politics? They love gridlock.
That's what they love. And we are, we are, and personally, I don't,
don't want to see gridlock as a human being. I think that there are certain things that need to
happen. But the God's honest truth, and we all know this, this goes back years, Mike, is gridlock
markets tend to like. And so the levers that Trump will have going out for the full three years,
you know, for the full three years are the people he's appointed to agencies, what they can do,
and the next Fed chair and the next what's going on there. That's it. Because you're not going to get
legislation if the Democrats win Congress because there is no such thing as bipartisan anymore
because you get people, you literally had 100% of all the Democrats willing to say they don't want
voter ID yet 85% of Americans want it. So there's no way, if you can't get bipartisan agreement
on something that 85% of America wants, you're not getting bipartisan agreement on anything,
which means you're going to get nothing done. So we're going to get gridlock. That is
anything other than gridlock would be a massive.
of surprise to the market.
We all agree on that, right?
I think that's right.
And so that's what you're going to see.
So, you know, we keep talking.
The reason I wanted to start with silver is because I think that it's going up for two
reasons.
One is what we said, which is just the industrial demand, but it's not just industrial.
It's the new industries.
It's what are, what's actually happening in this fourth turning.
What's happening is automation is increasing.
Yet, unlike oil, we have yet to come up with a,
better way of mining silver.
Correct. That's the difference. Whereas with oil, and the reason that oil has tended to,
you know, perform much more like, you know, oil is $60 a barrel. And, you know, it's funny.
I just finished watching season, whatever it was, to a Landman, which is one of my favorite shows
on TV. I just love the character with that.
Billy Bob Thornton is one of, I just, I just love the characters on that show.
Billy Bob's a great actor. He's a great actor, but the writing is superb.
But what you know is that oil technology continues to improve.
We continue to be able to drive down the cost of it.
And Mike, you've talked about this ad nauseum.
And so oil is a different commodity than something like silver,
which we really haven't improved our ability to get silver out of the ground and turn it into it.
So as a result, the denominator, i.e., the number of dollars in existence,
a number of euros in existence, yen in existence, etc., all continues to go up.
So in those terms, obviously the price has much more support.
And so you can't look back on a chart without factoring for the amount of global money supply in existence.
That's where you and I differ more than anything or anything else.
Now, speaking of existence of more money supply, I mean, Larry, I know you know a little bit about that.
I mean, how does that impact your way of looking at all markets?
Well, I mean, that's the debasement trade, right?
And as we all know, the big news there is that the Fed pivoted in December and started QE again,
started printing money again, $40 billion a month.
They call it reserve management, but it's really it's really QE or whatever.
And I thought it was interesting the way they did it.
They floated a few trial balloons.
They stopped QT in late October or late November, late October, I guess it was.
And then they floated a few trial balloons and said, you know, maybe we'll do $25 billion of QE and maybe it'll start in 2026.
and then December 2nd rolled around and bang.
It did $40 billion starting in two days.
So telling you that they really actually needed, you know, the reserves were too tight.
And I've got some charts that show that I've talked about them in other podcasts.
So basically, you know, the machine we've got, the monetary system we've got,
you have to continually grow reserves, grow M2, or else the debt collapses.
And that looks like 1929.
And that's unpleasant.
Nobody wants to have that happen.
And so, you know, I wrote a book called it the big print.
it's really the third big print.
The first one was 08.
You know, Brannacki printed three trillion over, you know, three, four years.
The second one was Powell in 2020, where he did, you know,
five trillion in 18 months.
And I think another one's coming.
And I think we just saw them, you know, we just saw them kind of capitulate.
I mean, it's a certainty that in December, they did not want to do what they're doing,
this reserve management, this stopping QT, this, all this.
They didn't want to do that.
you know, they're above their inflation mandate target.
You know, I don't know, it depends on how you measure it.
And of course, all the measures stink, but they're clearly at two, seven to three.
And their target is two.
I mean, it should be zero.
And so they, you know, they turned around and started printing again.
And my sense is, you know, all the stuff Trump's talking about, I mean, none of it's free.
You know, defense to $1.5 trillion.
Okay.
You can do that, but where's the $500 billion, the extra $500 billion to come from?
So, you know, I think we're just, you know, the printer is going to get turned on, you know,
Lynn Alden and I have kind of jokingly argued on Twitter.
And she's like, well, it's more kind of a gradual print right now.
And she's right.
I mean, $4.40 billion a month is $4.80 a year.
You know, that's not the trillions that happened in the last two big ones.
But I feel like mathematically, the next big one's coming.
And I feel like it's coming within, I think it'll happen this year, actually, because of the midterms.
I'd be shocked if it doesn't happen in a year or a year and a half.
I mean, and I think it will happen because of something, and this is, I'd be curious,
Mike's view on this, it'll happen because of the bond market.
And the other little alarm, you know, that's sounding in the bond market, I tweeted it out this morning,
is the yield on the Japanese tenure looks like a rocket launch.
And so that tells me that people are, you know, not too happy with holding long Japanese paper
and how long until that leaks into our long paper.
I mean, to me, it's amazing to me that anyone would buy a U.S. 10-year bond at 4% when we're clearly debasing the money at a much higher rate.
Yeah, it's funny that. Mike, you should talk, but I wanted to.
I go to that, Mike.
I don't know if Ryan could put up the screen, but I was just looking at the Japanese bond yield and boy, the set chart.
I mean, that's six months. You go to a year.
I mean, just look at that.
I mean, that is insane.
I mean, if you go back, breaking above.
I mean, we were talking on this show, Mike, remember about the carry trade, about, well,
as long as it doesn't break above 160, no one's going to care.
And now you look at what is done since November.
I mean, it's, it's, yeah, I mean, this is an alarm.
I don't know why people aren't talking more about it, but it's a very big move.
I mean, that's an alarm signal.
Because people like us who traded these things almost 30 years ago, been waiting for this
for three decades.
Honestly, I gave up on it.
Just like silver.
I was almost ready to sell all silver last year.
Because it's like, oh, about time.
Exactly.
So I think that it's happened.
I want to address what you're saying, Lair.
I think it's really important to remember the first part of a binary model for a big print.
Risk gases have to go down a lot.
The problem is we've already been through.
They pointed out this will be the next one.
And to me, that's what gold's figured out.
Now, silver made me too, but silver is a speculative risk acid.
It's called the devil's metal for reason.
So to me, those are the signals that were seen from the metals, certainly gold last year.
and to look back from the future and say, yeah, that gold grabbing the alpha at the greatest
velocity since 1979 didn't matter.
It's strange.
So I'm looking back from the future and saying, yeah, 2026 was a risk off year because we were
warned, volatility went up, and all risk gases went down except for one thing.
Treasury bonds and treasury bond prices.
And so, yeah, I've been taking the pain on that for three years.
But to reiterate what happens from the pain to the gain, we're seeing.
the gain in the medals. And Mick
retard, as some people
call me, I love that. I was expecting gold
to break above 2000 in 2021,
particularly when Russian was
a grade in Ukraine in 2022
and 2020. I was Mick
retarded in gold to go above 2000
for three years. Finally did it.
That was the pain. Now we're in the gain.
You pointed out the prudent thing to do. You lighten up.
We had pain in platinum. I remember
Brendan Clifford, I think, of the Platon Institute.
Every time I get his email, I'm like, yeah, I get it,
And I've been long platinum forever and bullish platinum forever finally breaks out.
The key thing that's happening is the pain I've had in treasuries the most ever, three years, completely wrong.
But there's one key thing.
There's a 10 on a global scale for everything.
I look at that treasury bond right now, 4.8 or so percent, almost 5 percent as a put on the S&P 500 that has positive return,
then actually gave you positive return last year despite the stock market going up.
So here's my scenario.
S&B 500 drops 10% and stays down.
Bond yields, which are on a four handle, go to three.
Mortgage rates, which are a five to six handle, go to four.
crude oil goes to 40.
The average gasoline price in this country, around 280, goes to two.
All those things that Trump needs and wants will happen.
It's one simple little thing.
But when you get this expensive in the U.S. stock market, you have to understand it.
It is the economy on a global basis.
It's all that matters.
And like I said, if we drop 10%, that's all going to, it's going to be all the matters.
The federal needs real fast.
But in this environment was all going up, everybody's got 10% gain.
I say, yeah, the fun thing this year is to just.
Mike, you're going to have to do something about your internet.
Yeah, you're breaking up a bit.
Mike, I don't disagree with you.
I mean, what you're describing is a deflationary impulse, which would put a bit into the bonds.
And I don't, you know, I don't disagree that that's a possibility.
I mean, if the stock market cracks, you know, and things start going down.
The thing is, we're running these record deficits and, you know, everything's completely where it is.
It's all messed up right now.
This is with a healthy stock market, right?
The last two times the stock market cracked, you know, you have all kinds of, you know,
spending goes up on social programs, et cetera, and tax revenue goes down.
So the deficit gets even worse.
And so, you know, my sense is the stock market, if the stock market cracks, maybe.
for a brief period it's a deflationary thing very much in March of 2020 you know the
10-year traded down in like 50 basis points for a few days remember that it was nuts right so you
can get a deflationary impulse for a brief period of time but then of course we know since the
fed has vowed to fight deflation and since they fear it more than anything else and they don't want
to have another 1929 we know what happens the policy response is you know print money full blast buy
buy everything in sight. We're not going to let that happen, right? And so, but that's, but that is
what makes trading this year very tricky and it's what makes, you know, things like Bitcoin as an
example. And I love Bitcoin. I love micro strategy, you know, but there's a model. I mean,
I rated about a 35% chance that we have what you described, Mike, which is a deflationary impulse,
and Bitcoin goes to 60. I mean, if it does, that's an enormous buying opportunity. I'll be
selling gold and silver and backing up the truck. But, but the point is, you know, we just don't
know. I mean, the system is so broken and the policymakers are so corrupt and stupid. But yet we know
certain things that are true, which are they will not let us fall into a long-term deflation like
1929 if they have a printing press available to them. I think that's the bet I'm making.
So let's talk about, let's pivot back to talk about Bitcoin because Mike and I had a, I had a
poke Mike, you know, post on action. Mike talked about it. So,
Mike posted again about $10,000 Bitcoin.
And my point on that is it's very simple.
I'm not saying it can't happen because God knows if Bitcoin breaks,
I mean, if it's literally deciding to go to zero,
if all the miners unplug and the network effects go down and it fails.
And look, the market is pricing.
Let's make no mistake.
This price of Bitcoin, the market is pricing a very much a non-zero chance that Bitcoin
will fail, full stop and just be in each product.
Because otherwise it would be, you know, somewhere between three or
400,000 right now. So clearly the market is pricing that that is a real possibility. So anyone who
says that it is, it's a possibility. If you don't believe it's going to happen, then you should be
in it and irresponsibly long, probably. But let's just leave that up for aside. Why do I say that?
Well, because in the case of 2022, when we had a significantly lower money supply relative to
every asset on the planet, it would be much, much lower, even after
forced selling from the largest exchange failure after multiple other failures,
they couldn't get Bitcoin to drop below $16,000.
So saying it's going to go below that now, 60% below that is basically saying it's going to fail.
And that's why, you know, I made that point.
But, but the real question is we're in a, Bitcoin is trading in this quasi-risk asset mode.
And I say quasi because lately the correlations are icky.
Today, the correlation is high.
If you look at the stock futures, people are expecting tomorrow to be a pretty bad day.
And Bitcoin is off like a little over a percent or so.
So it's more or less exactly in line with the S&P for where the futures are trading.
Still towards the top of its recent range, which was mid-80s to mid-90s, we got a little above it.
But people got excited and what happened.
They got wiped out.
There was almost 800 million liquidated in the crypto market.
Now, only a third of that was Bitcoin.
But it doesn't matter because the animal spirits in the crypto world are very, very much alive.
People continue to over leverage.
And every time they go for a breakout, they get, they get waxed.
And so we look at a market where there's just nothing sustainable, and it's sitting in this distribution mode.
What's interesting about Bitcoin in particular is traditional financial types are more and more not putting pinky toes in the water.
Now they're putting a few toes in the water, and eventually they'll be.
feet and more in terms of diversifying that part of the portfolio that might have been in gold
or might have been in silver. And so you're seeing more and more in the United States financial
types selling metals in order to buy Bitcoin. But over the overworld, the contract for differences
market, et cetera, and silver is still dwarfing anything that's happening in crypto. So I look at all this
as very interesting. I will continue to say that unless there is a major stock market correction in
first half of the year. Now, in years after strong markets, the March period when people have to
sell for taxes can be pretty iffy. Last year we had it iffy because of the tariff tantrum,
but that spring you could see that that sort of sell off. Could that happen again? Absolutely,
it could happen again. Is it going to happen again? I mean, I don't know. I'd say it's probably more like
60% that we'll see, and you said 10%?
I mean, a 10% sell-off, that's easy.
We had more than that last year.
I think that that could easily happen,
particularly if, you know, one of many macro things happen.
But the real question is, what does that do to Bitcoin?
Last year, it took Bitcoin.
They couldn't really get it below, very far below 80.
They got a little into the 70s, and that was it.
And at the same time, the fundamentals are different now.
Those marginal sellers that came out of the woodwork last year
from the long-term holders sold,
a lot. And the people that are buying it are people who have a cost basis where it wouldn't make
any sense for them to be selling it now because it's a long-term bet. And so the dynamic is different.
Now, that is not the same as the rest of crypto. Okay, I want to be really clear about that. I think
Ethereum has a narrative. Bitcoin is a narrative. Some of the larger cryptos have a narrative.
A lot of the speculative stuff in crypto will only take off if there's a sustained rally in the majors.
And until then, it's a bleed out. And that's what's been going on. And so when you talk about,
you know, competitors and all the other stuff. That's how I see it. So that's my mental model.
I personally, you know, think that there is a reasonable chance that there'll be a risk asset
sell-off at some point. But I think the overall trend is they're running it hot and they're going
to print more money and, you know, risk assets are going to go higher. And as long as risk
assets go higher at the same time that people are diversifying away, I think Bitcoin breaks out
to a new all-time high. That's my base case. Now, Mike, I know you disagree, so I want to give you a chance.
Quite correlation with the NASDAQ and as a risk on asset has been fading over time.
There were a few days last week where triple Qs were down and Bitcoin was up and that two days doesn't make a trend.
But the point is, in my opinion, it is a neutral reserve currency and it will become that.
And the sentiment in it right now is just absolutely dreadful.
I mean, you guys probably saw the New York Times article attacking Sailor.
And, you know, to me, I mean, we're, you know, we're only.
hundred and some odd days away from an all-time high of 124 we're still in the 90s and it's not like
it's not like this thing's been a disaster and yet the sentiment it feels to me you know i hang out
with a lot of bitcoin people it feels to me they're all you know crying in their beer like this is
it's just horrible that it hasn't gone up much quickly and you know if you look back at this thing
i mean the best way i think mike and you would agree this is having a lot of experience the best
way to evaluate any asset is to look at the long-term history what the asset's done in the past
And if you look at the long-term history of what Bitcoin's done, you know, it really rewards
patience and it rewards it in a funny way.
And just when you're about to give up, that's when it works.
And it, you know, it goes up.
I mean, you know, I mean, let's go back and examine the March 20 example, okay, because that
was the last kind of risk-off event and then a big print.
And so it's instructive when you're looking at that and you compare it to Bitcoin and gold today.
So when Powell pivoted in 2019, because the first of the rest of the event, you're, it's instructive when,
2019 because the repo stuff blew out.
If he stopped tightening, he started losing, he cut rates.
And then COVID came along.
And then he really printed and cut rates.
Gold went from 1,200 to 2000.
And everybody was happy in the old land.
My stocks all went up.
It's all good.
Bitcoin was just locked in between five and eight.
Just couldn't go anywhere.
And it stayed there.
And I remember very clearly because I own both.
I'm in both communities.
And the crypto people were like, where Bitcoin people were like, what the hell?
You know, gold's ripping.
Our thing's not.
And then suddenly, you know, July, August.
Bitcoin woke up and bam, it went from 10 to 60.
Went up 6x, you know, like really quickly.
Well, let's get it right.
It was October.
Okay.
Far enough.
Yeah, thank you.
That was the same year that Paul Tudor Jones made the fastest force comment.
And how quickly was that time?
What was the time frame day between the 10 and the 60?
Well, so here's what happened.
10 was where it was right up below 10 when Paul Tudor Jones said early May of that year.
It didn't do a damn thing until mid-October.
And then once it started rallying in mid-October, it got to like the 15 range, November, it got to the 20 range.
60 was in the following, by the following April, I think was when it hit it or March.
So really within six months, it did a six-bagger.
And so I believe that's what will happen this time, too.
I mean, gold is really good at smelling out monetary debasement.
It just knows when it's coming, I think.
And so here we are.
We know it's coming.
and when it hits, you know, Bitcoin's going to go from, you know, 8090 to 270 or 300, in my opinion.
So that's really, you know, the pattern that's shown in the past.
And I think that pattern will continue.
But, you know, you've got to have a very long-term perspective on it.
And there's never really been an asset like this.
I mean, Bitcoin, you know, Mike, you know, very prudently pointed out that silver, we can build, we can mine.
more silver. You know, we've got an algorithmically fixed cap on the amount of Bitcoin. So when
people decide they got to have it, we're not creating any more of it. The only, it's perfect,
in that respect, it's perfectly inelastic, right? Higher price does not create more supply.
And that's why it trades in this wild animal like fashion. And so I, you know, I fully expect
the next top will be two, three, four hundred thousand. And by the way, from there, it'll correct
another 50 or 60 percent again. Come back down into the 170 range or something. I mean, it's, it's like
Amazon when it was getting adopted. I mean, you just, you know, it's either, either Bitcoin's
going to the moon, everybody's all pumped up and crypto bros are driving you nuts, or Bitcoin's dead.
And, you know, it's, it's, it's on its way out. Like, I mean, right now, Peter Schiff is out
there doing victory laps. Like, see, the bubble's burst. I told you, gold's crushing it,
and Bitcoin's going to zero. It's like, okay, Peter, you know, let's give me another year or two.
Let's see where we are, you know. So you got to be patient. Let me look at the, simplistic
facts of Bitcoin. I've been waiting for the big test for a while. Let's see beta go down and Bitcoin
outperform. We did not get the test last year and Bitcoin failed. The whole crypto space failed.
Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index was down 20% after being up 20%. Starting in the middle of year,
I started putting that index in the year 1929 in the same sentence. I will continue to do that.
If you two and everybody's bullish are right, prove it. Let's see it stay above 100,000. I think it's
more likely to go to 50 in a normal correction and then move on from that,
particularly if we just get the, like you said, it's such a silly thing to say,
oh my gosh, if we get a 10% correction in the stock market,
people aren't ready for that.
It's the psychology of the space.
And let's remember what I loved about Bitcoin is it's so emotional.
As an ex-trader, that's the last thing you're supposed to be.
I mean, I put out comments about all other commodities,
and I don't get the kind of seriously silly pushback, you know,
like Mick Retard.
And that's a sign.
There's a problem here.
So right now it's failing.
The whole space is heading lower.
I'm willing to suggest you should be shorted.
And prove me wrong.
Stop mclone out.
Well, and being shorted for the next six months might be the right call, Mike.
What I would suggest to you, though, is if we could.
Maybe six years.
I think this is the biggest peak.
Well, let's see.
That's right.
I think this is a peak like Silver did in 1979.
Yeah.
Well, of course, we got to disagree or else we're not worth the shot.
Yeah.
But here's what you have against you right now.
It's a beer market.
Yeah.
Oh, no doubt.
No doubt.
But, I mean, it's a bear market where we were at an all-time high, you know, only, you know, 100 and some odd days ago.
I mean, it's not that bad a bear.
And in terms of Bitcoin bears, I mean, we've had.
Let's see you how they start.
Davis, you know, we've seen much worse than this.
I mean, to be at 90 when the high was 124, this is not really that big a bear.
So, but, but you're, you know, the facts have changed.
That's when Bitcoin is a baby.
What's that?
Bitcoin's not a baby now.
It's in this.
space and it's got horrible performance.
I mean, the Bitcoin performs absolutely sucks since 2021, high volatility, low performance,
any risk managers allocating to this space is going to say, yeah, so what do you need
for it to go up?
Well, stock markets to go up.
It used to be leveraged beta.
It is anymore.
Everybody's in this space.
And, you know, and it has unlimited.
Okay, I have to be careful using this word because Bitcoiners are sensitive and they get overwhelmed.
It's competitive.
I like to say, I like to say Bitcoin is like a gaggle of pigeons or, or, you know,
and the precious metals are doves.
There's just unlimited supply these.
So I'll look at my base case.
Doge coin.
We're two-thirds of the way there.
It peaked around $60 billion in 2004 when President Trump elected.
It's $20 billion.
Once it gets to zero, another third of that flush to zero,
then I'll probably turn bullish.
Or see signs of anything but divergent strength
other than horrible performance versus beta.
I mean, it just sucks now versus NASDAQ.
There's no earnings.
Just pointing out facts.
Almost five years now.
I pointed that out today.
the Bitcoin to gold ratio is flat now for five years.
I'll take gold and gold's expensive.
So I just look at it.
Good luck.
I mean, it trades over.
The whole crypto trade is over.
This is a fact you might find hard to believe, Mike, but it's true.
In the last five years, Bitcoin has outperformed gold.
Last five years, gold is up compound annually 20%.
Bitcoin's up 23% a year.
And in the last five years, the S&P is up 12%.
They both beat the SMP.
So, you know.
Bitcoin and gold ratio is 20 right now.
Five years ago, it was 20.
Yeah, well, that's, it's not quite right.
It's actually a little different than that.
It's a fact.
No, it's not.
Your data is wrong.
I just pulled the chart up and posted it on X yesterday.
Well, rather than arguing about facts,
and by the way, Bitcoin's not going to agree to a couple.
What we saw, part of this, this sample size is we've seen twice in Bitcoin's history,
euphoric rallies where Bitcoin traded dramatically higher than its network strength and all the various user adoption metrics dramatically.
The last one happened to be within this period of time.
It happened at the end of 17, beginning in December of 17, it happened again in a double peak in 21, right?
It was 21 that it did that.
your six-x rally to 60,000, and then it dropped and then went to 69 and then dropped again
and then stayed down. In both of those cases, the network compared to today was, well, in the
second case, it was about one-sixth to one-seventh to one-seventh the size in terms of strength,
in terms of the amount of the hash power that's being thrown at, the amount of money that's
being thrown at it on the network side. So the 2025, quote, rally, which was a immediate,
it reprice up from the Trump administration calling the dogs off from Elizabeth Warren's
anti-crypto army did never follow through it didn't follow through for a host of reasons I will
maintain it had to do with the fourth turning shit we were talking about earlier which is half the
country said well Trump likes it I have to hate it and you know that is a that's a very real
thing and we have three more years of that but the question is just just to go back no we never got
anywhere close to you for you ever so we're going to run out of time I just want to go back
one thing I feel strongly about in podcasts is we should be dealing with the same set of facts and the truth.
I would I would suggest everyone go to a site called case Bitcoin, C-A-S-E-Bitcoin, all-one word.com.
And what you will see is, and this guy updates this daily, what you will see is the rolling returns on a compound annual growth rate or on a total growth rate.
And yes, you know, Bitcoin, gold beat Bitcoin this year, last, last, you know, last year.
but on a five-year basis, Bitcoin's up 180%, gold's up 150.
And on compound, those numbers compounded, Bitcoin's been compounding at 23%.
I'm presenting that on the screen, Ryan, if you can put it up there, you'll get it, it's right in the middle.
Larry, can I ask you one question?
Yeah.
Larry, can I ask you one question?
Sure.
What's the volatility, average annual volatility of gold versus Bitcoin during that period?
I don't know.
The answer is much more than that.
answer the question. It's two to three times. And risk adjusted gold or Bitcoin should be up
two to three times gold. That's my point. Is a risk adjustment based performance absolutely sucks.
You don't allocate the trade is over. Maybe we'll get a decent dip to buy. And right now,
I'm just saying it looks like it was a rally to sell. Okay, fair enough. I mean,
yeah, if you want to put in the volatility as a measure, I hear your point. And that's valid.
but I mean, like you said, that it had crushed it in terms of performance in a five-year basis, and that's not true.
Well, the volatility.
It is.
Here, let me show you the chart.
Bitcoin to gold ratio.
I just posted on X.
It's 20.
And exactly on January 21st, 2021, 2021, it was about 19.8.
It's the same.
But it's the risk.
That's my point is any risk managers look back in this and say, okay, well, how many,
years now we have poor performance, a higher volatility. It's just, you don't allocate to that,
something like that. The back test, so actually before ETS, it's quite, so here's the thing.
So you like to talk about objective truth. So, okay, fair, except for the fact that the amount of
buying by people who actually understand that, as opposed to crypto bros, has been remarkably
tilted toward Bitcoin, not because of that, but because of the long-term optionality embedded
in Bitcoin. That's just fact, right?
You know, if you talk to
anybody from the ETF complex, any of the people,
whether it's a Black Rocket Fidelity or Bitwise,
I mean, you know, they'll all tell you
because they're not side analysts, perfect.
You're talking, that's where the money's going.
They're talking their books. They're selling products.
Well.
Hey, guys, we've got to wrap up. It's 10 o'clock
and I got to get going, but it was nice to see you,
Mike. We'll revisit the silver price in a couple of years
and we'll revisit the Bitcoin price too.
We shall see.
Hey, everyone enjoy the rest of your holiday.
And, of course, we'll be back next Monday.
I think Scott will be back and everything will be back to normal.
And so be it.
Take care.
Bye-bye.
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