The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Is Falling | Crash Or Correction?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Bitcoin continues to chop downwards, testing the bottom of the range that we've been in for the last couple of months. Is this the time that support is going to break? Should we be concerned with the price action right now? Should we just be touching grass or should we actively be looking to buy this dip? We're going to talk about the market, but of course, all the news and everything that's happening at the moment in crypto and beyond. I have some of my favorite guests today. Tom Dunleavy from, I guess we're saying, from Master Ventures now. Tom Dunleavy from Master Ventures, an ex-researcher, obviously, at Masari, who comes on and gives us the alpha constantly. Then, of course,

Starting point is 00:00:39 on the back half, Andrew and Tillman from Arch Public to update us on the $10,000 trading portfolio, their high frequency bots, and how everything's going in the equity market there. You don't want to miss this Let's go. wonderful Tuesday and that you are not getting slap chopped away in this garbage, hot trash market that we call crypto in April. It's April 30th, which means it's about to be May. Was it sell in April ahead of May or is it sell in May and go away or is it moon in May and make hay all day? I don't know. I was trying to make something up and I failed. We know that we generally have very boring summers in crypto. We obviously have four to six months of sideways chop and boring generally after the halving. But for some reason, people thought this time

Starting point is 00:01:53 was going to be exceptionally different. I'm going to bring on Tom and we're going to talk about it. Should we have all just sold in April and disappeared until September, October, and then we go up only in the four-year cycle and call it a day? We should have just all sold the top, right? It was so obvious. How did we not? I mean, how did we not? I don't know how we didn't see it. I don't know how we didn't see it. Yeah, I know. But there's a few things that are kind of kicking in here, right? You have the macro side. So stagflation in the US, that GDP miss, hot wages, hot inflation figures.

Starting point is 00:02:28 We've had the outflows of the US ETFs, which haven't helped. Regulatory stuff with consensus, which is not what's going to play out over years. And that just kind of ate away at the market until this morning we had the Hong Kong ETF launch, which everyone was excited about. You have 150 million crypto users in Asia versus only 50 million in the US. So that should have been a huge potential influence to the market. People were expecting 100 million plus. We got, I think, 11. So not good. Not good. But longer term, things haven't changed. Things haven't changed. Yeah, perfect. So this was supposed to be a big event and it sort of fell flat on its face right now. States market. I think this is always more of a story of China's softening view on crypto and

Starting point is 00:03:26 the fact that these were even being approved and moving in that direction, and they could eventually become popular. But the fact is, in Asia, people trade spot Bitcoin 6, 7x the volume in the United States, and that's where the money is. They're not buying ETFs because they don't have the same advantages that we have here. Interestingly, though, Eric Balchunas, here's Hong Kong crypto ETFs volume breakdown, all told traded 12.4 million. He said a lot for that market, equivalent of 1.6 billion in US. Assets much stronger though. Right. He goes into it, but actually him maybe because he just ETF guy and wants it to look attractive, but saying this isn't as bad as we think. But is that why? I mean, I see people saying that's why we're dumping again.

Starting point is 00:04:05 We got up to like 65,000 yesterday and then these debuted and flat. Yeah, I think that's certainly the short-term reason. But we're up 4x on Bitcoin in the last year, 3x on Ethereum, 15x on Solana. So we're taking a bit of a pause regardless. You can't just go straight up forever. So any interim reasons people were looking to... We can, we can. Once we get the RIAs on board.

Starting point is 00:04:31 But I think the broader thing that I was looking for for this Hong Kong ETF was the Ethereum ETF. And those flows, yeah, still not super impressive. So I think it's probably just the less of a demand in that market. They also have a very underdeveloped RIA market, which is going to drive a lot of the flows here in the US, as we talked about ad nauseum. That's just not something that they have over there. Yeah. We've seen slow unlocks in the United States, obviously, for the RIAs. I spoke with

Starting point is 00:04:59 Peter Schiff on Sunday. He made the contention that these RIAs, because of the fear of litigation, would never recommend Bitcoin spot ETFs to their clients. I think that's nonsense, to be quite frank. But we are getting the RIA unlocks. The question is if we're actually getting them to recommend these or if it's just on an unsolicited basis where someone who wants to buy them asks their RIA for exposure. Yeah. So the RIAs need stability and they need to understand where this sort of sits in your portfolio. So there's been a lot of chopping crypto, obviously, the last few years, but we're starting to see things calm down. So if you look at the actual depth of the market, so that's how much you can trade on either side of the order book, those have returned

Starting point is 00:05:40 finally to normal levels post FTX, and those were blown out for a long time. Spreads, same thing. They used to be five, 10 basis points wide. Now they're less than a basis point. You still have a ton of those inflows that haven't even been turned online that we've talked about. So the markets, you can start to see how you can make a case for an RAA up and above just the price action that, hey, these things are starting to trade like normal markets. You can actually recommend them to clients because you're not going to have this huge amount of career risk when you do so. Yeah. I mean, that's my thinking on it as well. You sort of touched on the fact that we had disappointing Ethereum spot ETF. I don't think

Starting point is 00:06:18 there's any appetite anywhere for Ethereum spot ETFs, even if they get approved. They're not getting approved, first of all, in May, which I think we all know. Right now, I think we're having enough trouble. I shouldn't call it trouble, but it's a slow trip on getting everyone exposed to Bitcoin in the first place. In our echo chamber, we think everybody wants the next asset, but we forget that 99% of the people out there are still just getting comfortable with Bitcoin. Yeah. And there's the echo chamber, but we also have to realize the echo chamber is broadening. So if you just look at base alone, which is, I think, the best mechanism to see how people are onboarding into crypto, you have all the crypto curious people on Coinbase that are going over to the base L2,

Starting point is 00:07:02 and we're getting 50,000 users a day. And now we're over 8 million users. And those are continuous throughout this whole cycle, throughout the sort of drips and downturns. So I think there are more people kind of broadening and coming in. But even within our ecosystem, there's a lot to be excited about in the next quarter. I think people forget, like these... And Eigenlayer was just announced yesterday. We have these enormous points programs and all these are free money. So Eigenlayer is trading at a $15 billion valuation pre-market or whatever. That's 2 billion that's going to be airdropped to people. It's just the beginning. You have

Starting point is 00:07:39 Frentech, more Jupiter airdrops, Layer Zero, Scrolls, Eksync, Fuel, Shardium. There's so many of them. And this is going to be billions of dollars that is coming in. And where do you think it goes? Usually trades within the ecosystem on three to five X leverage. And you see a lot of these coins kind of pump up on that. They disseminate throughout the ecosystem to whatever projects are around there, but in aggregate, they raise the market value of crypto. And we're going to see that throughout this quarter. Side note, I thought it was kind of hilarious that Eigenlayer is banning all VPN-based users when they let everyone use a VPN to essentially... I was just going to say that. Everybody use a VPN. I didn't read so deeply into it, but they essentially let everyone use a VPN to farm the points,

Starting point is 00:08:25 lock up their coins to stake and earn points for this airdrop and then blocking Americans, Canadians, et cetera, and anyone using a VPN from actually getting the airdrop that they locked their funds up to farm for all of these months. And the tokenomics are complete hot garbage trash. And let's be honest, what you just described is the Ponzi washing machine of crypto. I'm not saying you're wrong, but like that money is going to go into fucking meme coins. Like, let's be real. That money that comes in free from those ecosystems

Starting point is 00:08:55 is not going to like meaningful building in crypto. It's going to go into base meme coins or Solana meme coins or whatever for now, because it's the same DJs doing the same DJ and casino activity. Agreed. And that's bad for the short term, but eventually those find meaningful use cases. So I like to think about all crypto investments as like half attention economy and half fundamentals. And that's like a starting point.

Starting point is 00:09:20 Like meme coins are obviously 99% attention economy and zero to 1% fundamentals. If maybe you're like turning it into a ZKL2 like Shiba Inu. But there's a spectrum there and that's how you have to think about these things. And you have to get the attention economy, especially with the amount of protocols that are launching today. So like as someone who's in the space every day, I'm sure you feel it. I'm sure like the users feel it. It used to be be you had this anchor of, okay, I know what the L1s are. I know which one or two are emerging. Oh, I know what the L2s are. Okay. I know which one or two are emerging. Okay. Maybe I know some DeFi protocols. Now, I mean, just in the past quarter alone, there is an explosion of each one of these things. And it's hard to keep an anchor of what actually the major protocols are

Starting point is 00:10:04 doing, what new protocols are doing, and where sort of the gaps are. So you need to drive attention to your protocol or it's just going to get washed away in the sea of all of these new protocols that are launching. Just looking this quarter, I mean, we're going to have, you know, 100 plus protocols go to their token generation event through all of the launch pads directly through exchanges and then directly going through um you know just amm pools and things like that it's it's going to be overwhelming um so it's I think you need to drive the attention and that's that's a meme you know that's what you got to do but you gotta do it somehow yeah I I totally agree so let's talk about investing in

Starting point is 00:10:41 this current market because that's what you're actively doing on a day-to-day basis so maybe that's the more compelling conversation. It's kind of different this time, right? I mean, we have this sort of like meme coin beta trade everybody's taking where anyone can get into a pre-sale and spam an address and hope for the best. We have the airdrop economy. It seems like there's a little luster off of the presale world, although that's still very active. But this pushback against VCs, I mean, what are the verticals right now and how are people sort of, or how should be people, I guess, approaching this market? So on the private market side, we're still seeing a lot of very richly priced rounds. Projects certainly have the power, but I think what is probably

Starting point is 00:11:26 interesting for public folks, folks who are investing in the public markets is that these VCs have to bid up these assets and are going to have to continue to bid up these assets for the foreseeable future because they're under allocated. I've had a few conversations recently with bigger VCs who are 20 to 30% allocated in their $100 million plus portfolio. So what does that mean for people? It's that VCs give these projects money at higher valuations. Those projects take the money at higher valuations and bring it into points programs and airdrop programs. So if I was a user today and actively engaged in trying to make the most money on the private side,

Starting point is 00:12:05 it would certainly be trying to engage in all these points programs. I don't think there's a huge amount of alpha to be made by trying to hunt down the next long tail L1. I would just do a barbell strategy right now, not financial advice, but hold the majors that you really like because you don't want to miss. If you believe Bitcoin is going to 3X or Ethereum 4X, Solana 5X, I mean, that's a pretty hard benchmark to beat. So build on that position. And on the other side, you can do your DGN portfolio. You can airdrop for them and take the VC money, right? That's what you're doing at the end of the day is you're taking all the VC money for the user activity you're providing. Do you think that the token

Starting point is 00:12:38 launches are more fair this cycle than they were in the past? Yeah. So I had a tweet about this. Yeah. I had a tweet about this this morning because it's been, I don't think people, and there's no like perfect model for token distribution. I think the token model that was probably best was actually the ICO model because it had the most distribution upfront, got the token out to the most amount of users. Now there's really a challenge protocols face. It's like, how do I get tokens out to the most amount of people possible without everyone just dumping my token on day one? So, you know, ideally you want to get like 10 to 15% out there and you're going to do that through like some

Starting point is 00:13:14 unlock upfront, some airdrop campaigns, and then, you know, some through your community and things like that. But it's a, it's sort of a muddy picture because there's only a few ways to do that legally and all the jurisdictions are still all over the place to try to figure it out. But in terms of distributions, I think 10% to 20% to investors, 10% to 20% founders, and the broad amounts of the community, that's what you want to do, 40%, 50%. And that's really what you should fund a lot of your ecosystem growth on. Yeah. So let's talk your ecosystem growth on. Yeah. So let's talk more on views on the market.

Starting point is 00:13:48 I kind of touched on it in the beginning, but we didn't really get into the cycle. I mean, we preempted the all-time high this time because of ETF demand, obviously. I mean, to your point, the ETF demand has slowed. Interestingly, IBIT is now only like $1.4 billion behind GBTC. So it's probably going to flip it and GBTC will become the second largest. 51.5 million outflows, as you can see here yesterday. I mean, it feels to me like we got that all time high because of the timing of the ETF. And now maybe we're back into a normal halving cycle.

Starting point is 00:14:19 Some think the top could be in. I still lean towards show me that we're not in the same cycle as always and thinking we have a boring summer again and go up in the fall. So how do you approach this? I mean, does Bitcoin, do we start to change opinion if Bitcoin, say, starts closing candles below 60? Because we're seeing some pretty serious altcoin bleeding here. I mean, what are your signals that the bull market's over if that happened? Do you have sort of an invalidation and what's your base case? This very much mirrors previous halving cycles. It very much mirrors previous election cycles as well. So election years previously. Yeah,

Starting point is 00:14:59 exactly. Exactly. So previously you see May to September just be completely flat and just chop. And I think the best thing is just not to get eaten up with leverage and trying to get over your skis and just have your fundamental positions and then layer on the sort of airdrops and other things you can do. You know, my base case is we're going to see that really, really boring summer. Then hopefully we're going to get some catalysts towards the end of the summer. So stable coin legislation is on the table. You know, if we actually get that, banks move from friends to foes, right? We have $200 billion in market and stables that banks could start taking advantage of.

Starting point is 00:15:40 And then we have that big sort of September crypto conference season, which is like token 2049. You have Breakpoint and you have Mainnet, which is going to be an enormous amount of announcements, I think, for a number of protocols launches, get the excitement going again for the back half of the year. And that's what I think we really accelerate. So Q4 is when you know, not only is Biden and team going to be doing everything they can to juice the economy, but you're also going to have the crypto economy have a lot of those announcements and things like that. If you're looking at just on the broader macro side, I mean, you have Biden trying to cancel, I think, over a trillion dollars worth of debt, which would be more than we've

Starting point is 00:16:15 spent on all of higher education before the year 2020. So there's going to be a lot of juice pumped into the broader economy to help the Democrats. And I think that's certainly going to filter into a lot of the crypto atmosphere. But that's a Q4 thing. So, you know, again, I think we just unfortunately, again, have to be a little patient and just not kill ourselves with getting too out in front of our skis with positions. Yeah, I keep saying the more I think about it, obviously, we know that there's sort of the crypto halving cycle. But as you said, that aligns with the election cycle, right? The election is always like four to six months after the halving, at least in sort of the modern era of Bitcoin. And then you have this sort of global

Starting point is 00:16:57 liquidity cycle and the refinancing of debt that kind of happens on that same cycle Raoul Paul talks about quite a bit. That said, to me, if you're the Democrats and we really do believe that they're going to sort of manipulate it to try to get a victory, you could let markets slip for the next three or four months. And then just by simply going back up by the end of the summer or early fall, it's erased. So you can maybe like rinse some of the froth or pull a rug, so to speak, and have a really bad summer and nobody would care as long as they're back up in October

Starting point is 00:17:31 before the election. Yeah, that would be a good master plan if you had any confidence that the government could master plan things like that. I'm of the opinion that they can barely tie their shoes most of the time. So like putting master plans in places is pretty challenging. I do have a smart friend in the industry who actually thinks the master plan is a bit broader. And it's that, you know, illegal immigration will, you know, rise, and then voter, voter registration and laws will be more lax, like they were sort of last cycle. And that's how the Democrats are going to broaden, broaden their base. But I don't know. There's a lot of speculation out there about how they're going to win this.

Starting point is 00:18:12 Because, I mean, if you're a college student right now or you're a younger voter, I mean, the voter turnout last in 2020 was the highest for the youth that it's been since, uh, the last 40 years. So do we think we're going to see that same turnout now? Like I can't imagine a college age student or a young professional being excited to go vote for Biden. Like how is he going to get him excited? I mean, I just don't think anyone wants to cares at all. I think that's the direction we're moving in, but yeah. Yeah, exactly. Uh, but I think the Trump people care more, right? Like the Biden people are just kind of like, eh, oh man, the best, care more, right? Like the Biden people are just kind of like, oh man, the best worst choice. It just doesn't really get people to run out and vote. Yeah. There's no like hard for Biden supporters. There's anti-Trump voters.

Starting point is 00:18:57 Exactly. Exactly. And how powerful is that base, right? I don't know if it's that big, but all of us being equal, we know, at least within crypto, a Trump victory, well, whatever you feel about him and his politics would be likely pretty positive for the industry. Up and above having a red Senate or a red house, that would be strong too. And our local Senator here in Massachusetts, hopefully she gets taken down by John Deaton, but very, very unlikely. Are you going to consensus by chance? Yeah, we have to meet up. I'm doing a fundraiser with Meta Lawman for John on the 30th. I'll send you the details, but yeah, I mean, listen, I don't know if it's a long shot or not. My opinion is that even if he loses, he spends a

Starting point is 00:19:42 hell of a lot of money making her look like an asshole for the next six to seven months. So that's good. That is all I've wanted for the past 10 years. Yeah, I sometimes forget that you're actually living under her thumb more directly than the rest of us, although I don't think your senator really impacts what happens in your state directly. But let's talk about actual narratives then. What are you guys, is it still RWA and building on Bitcoin? Are these still the narratives that are going to start popping off in the fall or did they preempt the cycle and they were kind of like a DeFi summer a year or two early. Yeah. So let's run through these quickly.

Starting point is 00:20:25 So almost everything that's being built on Bitcoin right now is essentially a cash grab and or a scam. There's like a hundred projects that are building right now. There's maybe three of them that are real. I was looking at the GitHubs the other day of like 10 to 20 of them and like three of them had active code. So it's really just like complete cash grab. There are things that are real. And a lot of those things that are real are being built on stacks, some real in chain. They have a lot of support. I was just going to say, I'm trying to remember who the guest was, but they said, I think it was Yago or something. He said, listen, like if it wasn't being already built in 2021 or 2022 on Bitcoin, or it wasn't an early seed,

Starting point is 00:21:03 then it's a cash grab and a scam. Maybe it was even before 2023. But anything that started being built after Ordinals popped off was just people coming over from Ethereum who thought this was a better chance to do a presale or something. Totally. Yeah, exactly. I mean, we've had projects that have reached out to us and have been like, oh, we're doing this like deep end focused AI thing. And you're like, okay, interesting. And then they come back to you like six months later and suddenly they're in Bitcoin. You're like, well, okay. So it's the same team, same project. It's like, it's amazing. But this goes back to what I said earlier, right?

Starting point is 00:21:37 There's this hot ball of VC money out there that's trying to find a home. And it's not even just like the bigger VCs. It's like the smaller guys who feel like they're missing out, like the VC syndicates and angels and whatever. So there's going to be a lot of shit funded and great. I mean, you throw something at the wall, it might stick. But yeah, a lot of the stuff in the BTC ecosystem, not going to work out. Some will, and I'm excited about that, but a lot of it won't. RWA's, bear market products, are you going on chain to get 10% to 15% private credit, taking smart contract risks, getting yields? No. Same thing with real

Starting point is 00:22:10 estate, which is why it hasn't happened in the past. Same thing with private equity, which is why it hasn't happened in the past. RWA's to me are a next cycle thing up and above treasuries. Awesome. I can get some treasury yield. And that's important for people who are not in the US. I can go open up a brokerage account and buy some treasuries in the US. You can't do that offshore. Great. I get that. The rest of the RWA stuff, no thanks. SocialFi, another big theme. People want the next social network on JNFarcaster. I thought that had died, by the way. I thought Frentech had died, but now they are dropped here. So we're back, right? Same thing, Frontec. It's a great way to, again, farm VC money, but I don't think... Growing a social network is ridiculously hard, as we know. I mean, we've seen a bunch try to integrate with

Starting point is 00:22:55 Telegram too. The Tani ecosystem is generally interesting. I haven't explored it enough, but SocialFi, extremely bearish on still. I mean, the most boring thing and the thing we're still bullish on is the thing that has very clear token incentives, which is Deepin. It solves the cold start problem for enormous networks that need enormous resources. And if that's where we are for now, great. And up and above that, hey, we're solving the problem of financial rails across the world through stablecoins.

Starting point is 00:23:24 Those are two enormous use cases. I think we're trying to attack everything at once. We're like, oh, we need to do every single virile. Every cycle. Every cycle. I guess then the question is, if we do have a repeat of the cycle, what will have the, whether long-term value, I'm not talking about, but short-term value i'm not talking about but short term what will have the huge like nft type pop or the huge you know metaverse when facebook rebranded to meta kind of pop i mean we saw it with ai i don't think ai and crypto are ready to be married i think they're literally still on their first date so and it's not going that great um but uh you know way down the road maybe they'll uh find a match together but the the narrative popped, right?

Starting point is 00:24:06 You had every coin that was even superficially AI because NVIDIA went up. They all went up. I mean, is that a real, like are we going to see more of those like sort of like buckets? You bought NAIF, didn't you? I did.

Starting point is 00:24:19 I was eyeing them and there was one that had the wrap jacket and I was like, at least that's kind of cool. And then it got bought and I moved on with my life. NFTs, I feel like we're so bad. They're good again. You had people talk about like, okay, PFPs and then no, these are the financial wrappers for anything and everything that can be traded in the future.

Starting point is 00:24:40 We're going to have movie tickets and plane tickets and land as NFTs, which maybe we'll get to someday, but we're not there yet. And people are trading now speculative NFTs on Bitcoin, on base, whatever. My thesis for buying an ape is one, they were the all-time low they've ever been. And if you think about us circling back to, okay, Ethereum is massively oversold. We're going to get back to the two or three things that are OG Ethereum NFTs, and that's Bitcoin, or sorry, Apes and Punks. They just seem like a decent place to be. I mean, at the end of the day, an NFT, a PFP NFT is just buying a digital Rolex.

Starting point is 00:25:22 And what other digital Rolex will be as OG as those two? So it was either between that or a punk. And I was not spending that much money on a punk. So hold on to the Ape for once. I'm literally looking at Apes right now. I mean, floors back down to 14 ETH with ETH obviously getting a little beat up. So you're talking about 40 grand.

Starting point is 00:25:41 I joked at the very, very top of the last bull market that Ape say to me, I said I'd buy one when they were 25 grand. So now we're like 41 or 42. So I don't know if I'm ready yet, but I don't think they're going to get there. I think I get front run by that. Yeah. I just think of these things still as like leveraged ETH right now. And if you think this is like a local low, it's a pretty compelling case. I don't know. They're doing some, I don't follow it too closely closely but i guess they're doing some changes with yugo labs and all that stuff it still seems like really weird to me that a company owns like these assets in ip but i don't know we'll see man fingers fingers crossed i gotta gotta pay for uh stuff for the kids somehow so your college got

Starting point is 00:26:20 paid for it then you're gonna have to sell your race then you're gonna have to sell your ape and they're gonna kick you out and you're never going to be able to ape again. You won't be allowed to be ape country club and you won't be allowed to start a band with three other apes that you own the IP for because, and you won't be able to join Timbaland's record label that was started with apes last cycle. If we want to think about all the insanity that happened with apes last year, or three years, two or three years ago.

Starting point is 00:26:41 Someone posted Justin Bieber's portfolio and it had like a bunch of apes and doodles and all this other stuff. And it was down like 99.9%. Not that he cares, but yeah, all these people who bought these things last cycle was just chopped up, brutal. But if you think we're going up, I mean, NFTs are plays, so.

Starting point is 00:26:58 Yeah, I think NFTs will do well. God damn, we ran out of time. That sucks. Guys, follow Tom. Everything that he's doing, as I said, one of my favorites always to have on here and one of the best analysts in the game. So when you talk about all these narratives being trash,

Starting point is 00:27:13 it makes me just pay less attention to them, which is good. So I agree. I think it's just like we're going to get these bubbles, but if we're having this same conversation three or four years from now, 99% of the stuff that everyone was excited about now will be down 90%, in my opinion. Agreed. Good chat as always, Scott. Sad, man. Thank you so much.

Starting point is 00:27:34 Catch you on Crypto Town Hall in, I guess, 47 minutes. Oh, yeah. See you in 45 minutes. Hear you in 45 minutes. Awesome, man. Guys, follow up. All right, guys. Tom, as as usual offering amazing perspective i like having guests who are pragmatic and aren't gonna blow meme smoke straight up your butthole and tell you how rich you're gonna be if you do the dog with face beans oh god we're so dumb in this crypto place. So fucking dumb. Like we can talk about Larry Fink on one hand

Starting point is 00:28:07 and then be like, cat with ball sack. It's the fucking future of community. Makes my brain hurt. But while we're shitting on things, I don't want to do that. I want to be super nice because I have obviously Andrew and Tillman in the back. We're going to bring them on.

Starting point is 00:28:25 They love meme points. Their favorite thing. Both of these guys are going to actually come on today as Solana PFPs. We won't see their face. It's going to be talking. They're a Bored Ape band. But before that, of course, talking to you guys about Debbie. Guys, they've been a sponsor now for three long months.

Starting point is 00:28:47 Amazing. We've talked about it endlessly for those who are forced into the esg narrative these guys have solved that with the world's fastest smartest most scalable and affordable layer one guys haven't been paying pay attention they've got adoption from governments huge license in france nobody else got working with some of the biggest companies in the world and founded by the former head of U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, the inventor of the Kindle, CIO of Starbucks, pretty badass. No affiliate link, no nothing. Just go look at them and make me look like you guys are awesome and that they're awesome.

Starting point is 00:29:20 All right, guys, now it's time to remove the board apes and bring on the other board where are your pfps guys you promised me i'm just i'm i'm instinctually a board ape i kind of look like one oh i'm good you know i'm good you've never seen that board but yes i yeah valid points if any if i had to ascribe uh theored Ape persona to anyone who wasn't a PFP. Yeah, I mean, guys, first, I mean, we're going to talk about obviously Archpublic. I dedicated an entire newsletter to it yesterday, something I've effectively never done in 960 something issues, which would show people how much I actually believe in it after seeing the results of the back testing.

Starting point is 00:30:07 But first, I mean, Bitcoin here is $61,000. Andrew, you were just pissed off at John Reed Stark on Spaces yesterday. You're just making fun of him for overseeing Madoff. You were ripping on him. We got some anger in the market. I mean, do you think that we could see some lower prices here as the ETF demand cools. I think I'm not surprised at all that the Hong Kong demand is tepid at best and kind of a joke at worst. I mentioned it a week ago that Larry Fink gets up and has more Bitcoin for breakfast than the entire Hong Kong ETF market in total. So that's not a surprise. I agree with you, Scott, that there's going to be chop probably for a few months, but the narratives don't change. The narrative still exists.

Starting point is 00:30:59 Larry Fink still exists. And Morgan Stanley is going to come online at the end of May. That's $2 trillion in assets. So the longer-term story stays the same. But your narrative about CHOP for a period of time, I think, makes sense. I'm literally dying reading the comments, by the way, now. So I have to bring one up, which has nothing to do with you guys gotta ask we're being compensated to talk favorably about Solana you guys were in the back did you think that I was

Starting point is 00:31:30 talking favorably about Solana was your take on what's happening on Solana that I was saying imagine thinking I get paid to make fun of their meme coins and shit on it and say it's garbage never a dull moment I look over there and it's so entertaining, but I'm like, are we doing the same show? I don't know. I don't know. Anyway. So yes, I think that the

Starting point is 00:31:53 chop narrative makes a lot of sense. I'll probably be wrong because anyone who's predicting things over more than a four to six hour period usually is, except for of course, your high frequency trading algorithm, which crushed it this month up 10.6% since we started talking in a single month. So the $10,000 portfolio would now be without compounding $11,600-ish, correct? Yeah, correct. We actually, let's talk about emotion for a second, because I want to chime in on the whole Bitcoin front. Every market

Starting point is 00:32:25 is nothing more than just emotions, right? And I love seeing where we are in the Bitcoin space right now, because there's a lot of emotions. And I think that's the indicator of why we're getting the chop. The rocket ship of Wall Street has to be fueled with the tiers of retail. And I read this. I love when people make comments too, Scott. Crypto Vega commented before the show started, I sold everything I had. Every coin I own is gone. I'm completely out of cryptocurrency. I can't take it anymore. Aggressive dumping, manipulation. Everything is so intense. Crypto is over. I am out.

Starting point is 00:33:08 I am very glad to meet you. Life has dreams. Each is wonderful. And so when you read something like that, you... That's favorable. Well, yeah, exactly. You go, man, the chop's working. Because that's the liquidity pool that Wall Street needs to continue to chop through so that it can take the bags to where they want to take them.

Starting point is 00:33:31 You have to have lots of chop before you have explosive moves is the point. So, you know, I look at it regardless of whether we go down or not. There's two systems at play here in the Bitcoin space. One system is greed, which is what we have been talking about this morning. It's investment in Bitcoin to try to capture a return. The second is necessity, which isn't going to wane as much as greed is. Necessity is if you're in a developing country and you need Bitcoin to run your business, that is going to continue to grow. And you're going to see a rising tide float all ships, which is going to bring in more speculation. And because there's a scarce commodity at play here, you have to create shakeouts. You have to have large periods of intense, violent

Starting point is 00:34:26 channeling so that people get lots of fear and lots of greed in them. So you have really a house divided right now. But what's funny to me is it's the highest price that we've ever seen this type of consolidation. I mean, you take that. Imagine going back three months, I'll give you six, and saying Bitcoin's at 61,000 in April. What would you do for that? Yeah, people would be freaking out. And didn't swing to 45,000 in a violent shakeout. In years past, in cycles past, we would have hit all-time highs, probably skyrocketed through it, but then crashed to 45,000. And we're getting much, much more controlled, measured moves, in my opinion. So good segue into trading automation, because emotion is the enemy here,

Starting point is 00:35:21 right? So when you're in a position and you're sitting in front of your computer and you have your finger on the mouse, you are in a bad place to be making decisions unless you have a blindfold on and you're not watching the charts, which keeps you from making the decisions and clicking the mouse when you need to, you know, all of the things that you have to be aware of when you're live trading. I've always joked that for the first few years in crypto, or trading specifically, but definitely in crypto, whatever you are about to do, do the opposite. Exactly. Counter-trade yourself.

Starting point is 00:35:57 That's the George Costanza effect. That's what it is. I do the opposite of what I think I should do. I'm going to be successful. Well, and to that point, we actually, we haven't taken a trade in either one of the gateway products, which is our lowest tier, our entry tier, which gets people to understand what trading automation is, that it resides on your computer. It's user-driven completely, that your money is yours. It stays in your broker account. You have complete access to it. We don't trade it. All those things are the intended desire of us to teach people by getting involved in the gateway program. But we have a lot of different strategies that you can, if you're a high net worth individual and you want to join our concierge program, we can expose you

Starting point is 00:36:40 to dozens and dozens of strategies to really give you a basket of automated strategies to play with. But like, for example, we took a trade this morning, oddly enough, and we're up in the trade. I don't know how it's going to go, but I'm here on the podcast with you and I do not have to be monitoring and I do not have to be emotionally vested in making sure that this goes well. I came up with the logic and the math of what I wanted from a parameter perspective months ago. And I set that into motion and I get to remove myself now because I have somebody that's disciplined in the form of automation sitting there waiting to make the right trade instead of getting bored. If I sit there all day, every day looking for the right setup, most of the time I get bored and start entering positions that I shouldn't have.

Starting point is 00:37:36 Or I start fudging my rules a little bit going like, hey, it fits three of the four criteria, but not the four. You know, because human nature is human nature. And that's the beauty of automation. And that's what we want to show everybody is you can set up what you want automation to achieve for you way before the emotion gets involved. And then you just let it run and you go and check afterwards. And if you want to tweak it, you can tweak it, but you're not doing it in the moment where the mistakes are made. So it's the true statement against any market is that emotion is the number one enemy, whether it's fear or greed, that's typically what's getting you in or out of positions. And that's a bad way to play any market because you can't be disciplined enough to stick

Starting point is 00:38:22 to your strategy. You can talk to the best traders in the world and they will say, I break my own rules and it always bites me. Every time. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You guys sent me some screenshots where I've got the periodical daily returns, the performance summary, and of course, this incredible equity curve. Yeah. So that's the equity curve. And as you can see, I like to show this because it's not a straight line. You can't go straight up. And that's the equity curve. And as you can see, I like to show this because it's not a straight line. You can't go straight up. And that's one of the things that people are upset about Bitcoin, for example, is that they want it to continue to just go straight up the whole time. And you have to have these pullbacks so that you can reassess, reconfigure, and start to move towards those big liquidities again.

Starting point is 00:39:06 So if you look right there, the drawdowns are where you take a couple of negative trades in a row. And then the green dots are the positive trades. And all we're trying to do is to remove the emotion, play by the same rules every day, and remove the time commitment that those typically come hand in hand with so that you can be doing what you want to do and you can set something in motion that you believe in and that you want to be acting on your behalf. And we've got now it down to a science where you can do this completely hands off. You can actually have another firm that's partnered with Trade Station manage your automated strategies for you. So you don't even have to manage the strategies themselves. You can have somebody that's a licensed person do that for you.

Starting point is 00:39:57 I can't believe you're admitting that there were down trades. What's wrong with you? Yeah. Yeah. All trading bots and all people who are. It's supposed to only all trading bots and all people who are selling things are supposed to only win. Like, yeah. If you don't show, um, you know, the negativity associated with any strategy, it's a scam, pure and simple. Um, if, if, if you don't show that, if you don't show days or weeks, um, that, that have, have down moments, um, it's a scam And listen, we've got it to a point with our company and people that sign up with us. And thank you to everybody that has. It's been an

Starting point is 00:40:34 absolute rush of folks over the last couple of months where you simply open an account, you deposit your money, and then you let the algorithm work for you. You don't have to buy a computer. You don't have to sit at it. You don't have to look at it. You don't have to monitor it. You don't have to monitor your Wi-Fi speed. You don't have to do any of that stuff. We have a situation where it's simply sign up and allow the algorithm to do what it was designed to do. So people are loving it. And what we're doing for our customers is we're getting them started with a couple of pieces of automation. And we're letting them learn a little bit about what that looks like. And then inevitably, we're having them, they're coming back and going, I want more.

Starting point is 00:41:17 And so what happens is, because the time commitment doesn't go up at all by adding another automated strategy to your portfolio, you can continue to add them and continue to add profitability without any encumbrances from the time side of things. So like if I said to you, Scott, I want you to trade 40 symbols every morning manually, that's impossible. You can't do it. No one can. But we could put 100 pieces of automation on 100 different symbols, and it's the exact same execution as if we were running one. So it's just a force multiplier that's really, really hard to ignore once you've had it in your possession and you've actually utilized it. So we encourage everybody at the very least, come in and try the $99 a month product.

Starting point is 00:42:10 The intention of that is to get you experiencing something you've never experienced before. Complete user-driven automation, US broker-dealer, complete sovereignty in that relationship. And the highly liquid alternative asset or vehicle. It's like you can pull your money out every single day. You sleep in cash every single night. So our automation has end of day exits. The futures market gives you incredible leverage for free. If you have ever traded on leverage before, most markets charge you for that leverage, and it's expensive. If you trade futures and you sell before the closing bell, all of the leverage that you use for intraday is at no cost to you. So there's this huge stick that

Starting point is 00:43:00 you can use to move the boulder for yourself at no cost. And automated strategies can have all those parameters set so that when the end of the day closing bell happens, it doesn't matter whether it's at your computer, it's getting you out of all the positions so that you can sleep in cash and wake up the next day with a fresh perspective of, do I want to turn it on or do I want to turn it off? It's literally your decision every day. That's how simple it is. Right. So it only took two trades last month. Is that common? That's low. Typically, we see about four to six with those two starting strategies. We have strategies that take 12 to 20 a day. So it just depends upon what your bankroll is and how much you can put in your

Starting point is 00:43:46 TradeStation account. It depends upon how many strategies you can run and how large those strategies are. It's all about whether you can afford to buy the futures contract and what those prices are. Jeff says it actually sounds complicated. It's not, I promise you. I mean, if you were willing to spend like an hour or two of your life to make sure that you know what you're doing before you let it run indefinitely, then I guess you can call it complicated. But they explained it to me and I'm dumb and I don't even have the right kind of computer. And Andrew sent me an email and five minutes later I was set up on a Mac when it was supposed to be. Yeah, it's not hard. Yeah, you don't even have to be truthful with you, it is complicated, but it's complicated like an iPhone's complicated. That's what I mean.

Starting point is 00:44:30 You just got to get the, there's a little slight learning curve, but once you're there, it's running, man. Yeah, exactly. And it serves you good the day you open the box and the day you open it up and turn it on. It's very intuitive and it's very hands-off is the point. I can't stress this enough because that's a really good comment that you brought up.

Starting point is 00:44:50 I can't stress this enough that over the past three months, we have effectively taken all the complication out. It's open an account, deposit your money, the algorithm works. Again, I can't stress this enough. There are no other steps. Okay. There just aren't. So you just, we were on with a, on a call yesterday with a guy, again, who came from your newsletter. And when I said, again, it's, it's completely hands-free. He's like, man, I was hoping that you would say that. And I just picked up my phone and I said, this is how you handle our algorithm. This is it. You just simply look at your balance each day. That's all you do. You do nothing else. And so, um, I don't know. It doesn't seem complicated to me. Once again, forgetting that people on Twitter can't see it in the description. First of all,

Starting point is 00:45:40 the arch public.com T H E A R C H P U B L I C.com. Uh, it-H-E-A-R-C-H-P-U-B-L-I-C.com. It's in the description if you're watching on YouTube, and that's how you spell it if you're watching on Twitter, or you can read my whole newsletter about it yesterday, which I highly recommend, which I'm now going to show you guys, which I wasn't intending to. But, yeah, it's not hard. And I saw a question just pop up that says, where can we learn about it?

Starting point is 00:46:03 We encourage each of you to schedule a Zoom call with us. There's links on our website whereby which you can, we can jump on a Zoom call. We can share our screens. We can get you really comfortable with what we're presenting so that you can see and ask questions and really get a deep dive. So we'd love to meet you one-on-one and we'd love to kind of hold your hand through learning about automated trading. Yeah, we want people to do their due diligence because we started this journey with a real

Starting point is 00:46:35 focus on liquidity, right? So the fact that you can deposit money into your account and two days later you say, I don't know if I'm ready to do this. Hit a button and your money comes right back to you. Trade Station is our broker dealer of choice. They are very supportive of what we're doing. I've been fortunate enough to speak with several of their C-suite executives at conferences. They believe in automation. Their entire platform is built to receive automation. So to say that you're going to have support is the understatement of the century and the fact that TradeStation knows what we're doing. You will go into a private customer queue where they know you're trading automation. They can help you from the back end like we can't. We are not the broker

Starting point is 00:47:23 dealer. We're the software provider. But they absolutely are US-based. And when you call them, there's somebody that speaks English that picks up and can serve you in the manners that are needed when money's on the line and you're in a trade and you're stressed out, those types of things. If you need them, they're there for you. Crying boomer Jeff, who hates everything and amazingly has four out of seven letters in his last name are vowels. He says, I have to admit, you guys seem pretty legit. If we got Jeff thinking about it, we're doing good. He's a boomer like us, and he's generally angry. He also wants to know if you guys ever used to do Duck Dynasty.

Starting point is 00:48:04 No, but I'd really be sort of an uncle psy character right you never know what's gonna happen what's gonna come out of my mouth you know i learned that on spaces yesterday yeah oh yeah you did realize that on spaces yesterday i look man that i can't i can't handle sec homers stuff i can't handle that, it was a tough morale moment when we missed that Madoff Ponzi scheme. It was a tough spot for us. I'm like, are you serious? Come on, man. Yeah, it was

Starting point is 00:48:33 pretty funny. All right, we got to go. I'll probably see you on Spaces. I won't bring John Reed Stark or anyone triggering for you. I'd hate for you to miss a night's sleep over the deep emotions that you're feeling. Guys guys once again it is thearchpublic.com just go check it out schedule a call with these guys you have nothing to lose you will literally talk to these guys yep right yeah thanks god pretty awesome yeah

Starting point is 00:48:56 pretty awesome all right guys that's all we got for you today see you on spaces at 10 15 of course back tomorrow morning 9 a.m eastern standard time till. Tillman, Andrew, have a great one. Thanks, guys. See you guys. You bet.

The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Is Falling | Crash Or Correction?

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