The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Is Flying - Is Uptober Finally Happening? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: October 14, 2024

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be Monday. It's always a better show and a lot more fun when Bitcoin isn't sucking. And today Bitcoin is back above $65,000 lending to our title here. Bitcoin is flying is October finally happening. So if we look historically, October, obviously, as you know, is the best month effectively, or the starting of the best month of the year for Bitcoin, if you believe in seasonality, September usually being the worst, although we had our best September ever at about 7% up. And generally, especially in the election years, which coincide with the halving cycle, obviously, we never really get a down October after green September in history. And so our best September, obviously, as we've talked about here, would lead if you believe in seasonality again, to a huge upside in October. And of course, we started the day sub 63,000 and now Bitcoin trading over65,000. So is it finally happening here?

I think it's the question on everyone's minds. Nobody here is a fortune teller or a mind reader. So it's all just opinions and not financial advice. Obviously, Simon, having been through so many of these cycles, do you think that maybe we're actually starting to ramp up here in context of being 170-ish days after the halving, election happening, global liquidity increasing, all the reasons that we look at this four-year cycle? Yeah, so I don't want to get ahead of myself because having been around for so long, I can see that these things come and go. But yeah, you've given, I think, all the compelling reasons why um we would believe

that this is a normal cycle and i do think the cycle has prevailed um we shall see whether that turns out to be exactly month by month um but i think what we're seeing is the traditional financial markets um trying to decide and understand the narrative of whether they see Bitcoin as risk on, risk off. I think those that hold it in self-custody see it as a lifeboat in an environment of complete geopolitical uncertainty and escalation. And so I think there is a competing narrative that's happening around the normal supply and demand economics. At the same time, central banks all around the world are stimulating. So we know that Bitcoin has historically benefited from stimulus. But the real question is, what happens if we enter into an escalatory, which is more and more increasing.

Do they see Bitcoin as risk on? Do they see Bitcoin as risk off? Or is Bitcoin just an asset that plays a four-year cycle? So it's all about what is the demand shocks, what are the, that we've got coming and how do people react to it based upon their understanding of what Bitcoin is for them. And you've got the election as well as you quite rightly said um it looks like yeah you know the market interpreting trump as positive for bitcoin

um and whether harris will actually react and then also um the scale of the escalation in the israel side as well you can't rule that out. That if you wanted to get a Trump election, then Israel could do a more aggressive election. It would make the economy look bad. It could create an oil shock. It could create inflation, a turnaround. We got the CPI print last week, 4.3 percent rather than I think the 4.3% rather than, I think, the 4.2% expected. And so all of that is playing in. But all I know is that there's nothing that I would rather be in right now than Bitcoin.

And I think others think like me. Actually, listen, we have a lot of crypto natives here. Nancy, it's great to have you here. Obviously, you have a much greater focus on macro and you're a part of the morning shows quite often. When you hear us talking about all of this, what do you think? Well, I recently attended the Bitcoin conference at MIT. And, you know, my expertise is in fixed income markets and volatility, but I really love just being part of the community and embracing, you know, sort of everything that's out there in terms of diversification for investors' portfolios. I think you just, you can't really count on, you know, even the CPI print last week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics are always tweaking the calculations.

We saw that with the payroll numbers that have been revised. So I think it's just important for investors to have diversification. My specialty is interest rate volatility, which I think most people have no idea that they're short fixed income vol in their bond portfolio, and that's just because of the rise of passive indexing with 26% of the ag index, which is what people use as core fixed income in the United States sheet, 35% of it is mortgages because as interest rates have moved higher, homeowners are rational and they don't prepay as quickly. So I'm happy to be a resource here and participate. And thank you for having me as one of your guest speakers. You don't think we sound like insane cultists when we talk about October and halving cycles and such? Well, the only thing I would correct is the CPI print last week was

2.4. Not any, I think. Oh, my bad. Did I get it backwards? It's all good. I just wanted to correct for everybody. I mean, inflation expectations in the US are priced to be around 2% in the future. So it's not even like all markets, like crypto, like Bitcoin, like stocks, all markets move off of future expectations and that's how they're priced. So you can look at the breakeven curve to look at inflation expectations as measured by CPI expectations in the Treasury Inflation Protected Security Market. But yeah, just being the OCD meticulous person that I am, I just wanted to, for the record. Yeah, it was 2.4 down from 2.5, but the expectation was 2.3. So it was one of those. As I was saying, it sounded weird in my head.

Inflation came down, but not as much as expected. And that gives the market a hell of a lot to unpack because... And you have to, to your point, CPI is just an index, right? It's a consumer price index. A third of it is what they call owner-occupied rent in the form of shelter. So it's just, you know, nobody would measure the equity market with the Dow Jones or the Russell or the NASDAQ. And it should be so much easier to measure the stock market because there are only, you know, a handful of publicly traded stocks these days. So measuring inflation with one index is just kind of nonsense to begin with in my opinion there are a lot of ways like everybody has their own personal inflation basket which doesn't necessarily

look like the cpi and i think you know the fed has done a good job of you talking about the cpi is not the only way to measure inflation but that's what that's the reason I created our products was to access another measure outside of just CPI. Guys, yeah, sorry. We had a glitch there. Josh, can you hear me now? Josh Frank, because I just got your message again. I can hear you. Okay, great.

I was in a glitch. I was actually speaking directly to you, but to nobody. You obviously, when I'm trying to sort of like, see what's going on under the hood, I use your dashboard, the tie. And I'm wondering if you're seeing anything specific at this moment that would be driving this. I mean, I think Bitcoin dominance obviously rising. So Bitcoin is still generally outpacing altcoins. But we are seeing, I think, over the past few weeks for the first time, increased confidence and liquidity into altcoins as well. I mean, what do you think is driving this move right now?

We're at $66,000 as I'm speaking. We're up $1,000 since the show started, basically, on Bitcoin. I mean, I don't have anything materially different to add than anyone else here. I mean, I think a lot of this move is being driven, is macro driven, you know, as, you know, people talked about, you know, conversation around Chinese stimulus, I think is part of this. I mean, I think a huge part of this is Trump polling at this point. I mean, Trump is now, you know, with and I think that polymarket is a reflection of a little bit of crypto perspectives, not just of broader market perspectives.

Obviously, you have to look at broad market polling as well. But I mean, Trump is now about 10% up on Kamala. He's winning in every single swing state as of now, except for Nevada, where he's about a point behind. So I think a huge part of what's going on is that I think there was also the pushback in Mt. Gox creditor repayments of about $3 billion, or probably a little bit more given prices have moved to next year. So I think it's a combination of macro, the rest of the market moving. And I think crypto natives want alts to move.

And I think we're latching on to narratives. And I think it's a rotation of capital within this space. But I don't think there's any new money coming into alts or anything more crypto native at this point. Yeah, I agree with that. I think it's we haven't even remotely seen any moment where all coins like writ large move up at the same time right uh we just have uh going from memes to aptos and suey to whatever the next thing is but but i will say dispersion and returns is a good thing for crypto right like you want to get to a point where things that are you know know, have usage, have activity, have real

narratives and push behind them are performing and other things aren't. I think that's a good thing for crypto, right? I mean, you want to have, you know, the best assets perform and the worst assets lose. And I think we're starting to see a little bit of a little bit of dispersion where there's some momentum behind what I would broadly define as higher quality projects over the last couple of months. But obviously there's exceptions to that. Are those higher quality products like Moogang and Hippo, Buttface or whatever? Yeah. Yes. Yes.

If we remove meme coins from this conversation, then that's it. Sorry. I had to take my shot. Bitcoin did just hit 66,000 for at least a moment there. Alex, I'm to take my shot. Bitcoin did just hit $66,000 for at least a moment there. Alex, I'm glad you're up on stage. How are you personally in Galaxy sort of viewing this latest move or where we are in the cycle and what our expectations can be sort of moving forward here? Yeah, good. Good to be here with everyone. Look, I think there was a headline this morning that Harris is going to pledge to be more supportive to crypto.

The context in Bloomberg, the actual headline in Bloomberg was Harris highlights capital access crypto in bid to woo black men. I think we view Harris as marginally positive in relation to the Biden administration. I think some market participants are starting to wake up to that. Obviously, Trump is more supportive. I think one thing when you talk about alt Scott is that a Trump administration would certainly be supportive of Bitcoin, but a material easing in the regulatory frameworks in the US would uniquely be supportive for altcoins. So I think the big catalyst for alts would be a Trump victory. Whereas, you know, I think Bitcoin is like downside protected in a Harris win and has the potential for explosive upside if Trump or Harris

win, frankly. I think that so that's playing into it, that headline this morning. I think, you know, from a pure technical standpoint, everyone probably has been looking at this chart for months. Like we've been in this sort of descending channel, which, by the way, looks like the flag portion of one of the largest bull flags in Bitcoin history. I think you need to break 66.5 here to make a higher high in that channel and about 67.5 to actually break out of that channel. So there's some technicality here, I think. I don't think there's a particularly unique thing. I mean, CPI relatively in line. China appeared to be easing that a lot and then sort of pulled back a little bit. But global M2 is rising. I think we're entering an environment of rate cuts worldwide. I think it's the first time that the US and China have simultaneously cut rates since March and COVID. So there's definitely support for risk assets happening now and on the horizon. the economy breaks down sufficient to justify big cuts but then the economy breaks down and you get some kind of recession it doesn't no one's really uh predicting that now but we know how um

bad predictions have been in the past i think in general though like the big takeaway for me is that you really have to think about it mostly being noise between now and november 5th it's very hard to see past the election i think the good thing for crypto is that I do believe that on almost every issue, Harris is going to be slightly more supportive than the Biden administration. So you're looking at no matter who wins, either an explosively more supportive presidency out of the Trump campaign, or at least slightly more supportive. And I do think that hasn't been fully priced in yet. Yeah, we discussed this actually on my Macro Monday show this morning. There's an argument. First of all, when it comes to crypto

and altcoins, as you said, if you're talking about non Bitcoin, and maybe not ETH, because it's sort of been institutionalized, but you can be pretty sure that President Trump is not going to deem NFTs and altcoins unregistered securities when he's literally launching NFTs and altcoins. Right. So regardless of your belief, he's certainly not going to make the thing he's doing remain illegal or unclear. Right. And then from the other side, I keep hearing the argument that, you know, if Harris wins, Bitcoin would crash. But the presumption is that Harris wins, we'll see a hell of a lot more stimulus, money printing and spending, which historically is a supportive environment for Bitcoin's price. Specifically, if you look at a chart of global M2 in Bitcoin, it's very clear that when the money supply rises, Bitcoin rises with it.

I mean, it's scary, I think, to say the narrative, Alex, where you say, listen, if Trump wins, good for Bitcoin, if Harris wins, good for Bitcoin, because it sounds like you're not making a downside case. But you have one who from a fundamental perspective is saying it's going to be a strategic reserve asset, will protect self-custody, will not sell the Silk Road Bitcoin. And the other, if you believe that that's what the policies will be, has policies that are supportive of Bitcoin price. Yeah, if you look at the policy by policy, I think it's clear that Harris is trying to signal a bit more support for innovation on the regulatory side,

which could be slightly marginally better for altcoins than Biden has been. But that's not concrete at all, right? I think we're, if you think about Bitcoin, it has very little business before the federal government and regulators, right? It doesn't have a lot. I mean, right now it's what options on the Bitcoin ETF basically the only thing, maybe some custody clarity from the SEC would be useful. But it's basically a commodity that's that's through I think the only issue we looked at where we think Harris could be bad is on Bitcoin mining. She did sponsor the Green New Deal in as a senator, one of the few bills that has her name on it. So there is that risk.

But I think in general, like, it's not even so much that they would print, they're both going to print, I think there's no, I don't know anyone credible who thinks Trump is going to, you know, be a fiscal conservative. So I think in either case, you're looking at, you know, fiscal dominance increasing or continuing, which, you know, could be supportive if you view Bitcoin as a hedge against, you know, federal government and even Federal Reserve, you know, profligate spending and printing. So, yeah, it is basically I think Bitcoin's pretty well set up. I think it can rise modestly over the next, you know, 12 months, even if Harris is in office. I think the real the real trade maybe to do would be to long Harris on prediction markets,

simultaneously paired against a long of, you paired against a basket of altcoins. And where your downside is relatively capped on the Harris long, but you have the potential for explosive altcoin upside if Trump wins. That's a really interesting trade. Alex, other Alex, go ahead. Yeah, that's a super interesting trade. My biggest question would be, could you get some liquidity depending on how big a play you want to make on it yeah because a basket of all coins has not necessarily performed well so i think you'd actually have to be specific and choose right well here's one specific i don't know without looking at them

all but you could look at the 60 that the SEC has claimed are securities and bet that this space was downloaded via spaces down.com. Visit to download your spaces today. Those get, you know, those determinations are rolled back in a Trump administration. Yeah, that's definitely very possible. I think the other thing that's interesting if you're comparing the two is, I mean, I think the general idea that Bitcoin's fine under either of them, probably do better under Trump for the exact reason of if he's launching a shitcoin, he's not exactly going to go try and ban shitcoins. I think the biggest potential downside even for Bitcoin with a Harris admin

is probably more of the like subtle attacks, you know, the Operation Chokepoint 2.0 attacks on it. The more I look at it, the more I'm unconvinced that like for administration will be the publicly headlined, particularly negative against crypto. But I think there is definitely still the risk on just whoever is in office of the currency controller and the FDIC, just whoever else is running kind of the background plays. I think the interesting thing, though, also on the inflation part is when it comes to inflation money printing, I think actually a Harris administration would be much better

for any kind of risk or growth asset for the simple reason of they're both going to drive inflation through the roof. But Harris is going to do it by printing money and giving it to people, whereas Trump's going to do it by putting 20 percent taxes or tariffs on all imports. So both of those are going to be massively inflationary. All of the economic analysis I've seen is it's likely that Trump will be more so, except that's money out of consumers' pockets as opposed to Harris putting it into consumers' pockets. And so I think if you're looking at driving the demand side, it's actually Harris who will likely drive more of it.

Anybody have specific thoughts on that? Nancy, I would love your thoughts on that, actually. Yeah, if you could repeat the question. My connection, I don't know if anybody else's was lost. He was effectively saying that... Alex, I can let you reframe it for her. I just want her macro perspective. I was just saying that if both Harris and Trump

are going to drive inflation up, Harris by printing money and doing a bunch of demand side stimulation and giving people handouts, but Trump by putting 20% tariffs on all imports, both of those are going to be strongly inflationary. It's just that Harris is doing it by putting money into consumers' pockets.

Trump's doing it by taking money out. That putting money in people's pockets is more likely to drive not just crypto, but all kinds of assets. Nancy, were you able to hear him? I can hear you fine, but I can't hear him for some reason. Yeah, this is you.

Welcome to spaces. It's a wonderful place where you never know which guests can hear which other guests. But effectively, he was saying that both potential candidates for president will drive inflation, but it will be largely put in the hands of consumers if it's Harris, which could be good for risk assets. And it will likely be, you know, in the form of tariffs with Trump. Basically, I think we're trying to get down to the bottom of who's going to print more and whether if they're both going to print, where is that money going to land and what's that going to mean for markets? Oh, yeah, I really strongly agree with that. And it's kind of wild because inflation markets are

pricing inflation to fall in the future. So like we were talking earlier about the last CPI print last week, inflation expectations are right around, you know, 2% in the future. And I think that to me is a crazy buying opportunity. Like the one year break even is 1.37 right now. The two year is 2.1. The five year is 2.28. So the market is already pricing that inflation is going to be lower than the last CPI print. And I think, you know, obviously it's going to be spending on different things, but the fiscal situation is going to be pretty dire, I think, in either scenario. So I think, to me, inflation is just something, however you express inflation, I think it's something that investors need to own as part

of a diversified portfolio, especially the closer they get to not being in the labor market. Because then, you know, if you think about your personal balance sheet, you're not going to have wage inflation, you're just going to have a higher cost of living. And yeah, I think it's... How does your average person own inflation, Nancy? I mean, I think we all know that like rich people own hard assets and, you know, they benefit from inflation, but how does the average person own inflation? Well, you know, anyone can buy, you know, really anything these days because of, you know, I think ETFs have been a fabulous wrapper to democratize the financial markets, to give access to a lot of different asset classes, including, you know, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. And what I specialize is interest rate vol and inflation,

the rates market. So I think it's really a question of like, what you think in the future, like personally, the inflation protected bond market only started with the US Treasury in the late 90s. So I think a lot of people look at the 70s and the 80s to say what worked during that period. For me personally, I wouldn't want to own, say, only commodities in the future. I would want to have a more diversified inflation basket. But I think the question is, it's very personal for everybody's risk tolerance. But I do think however you own inflation, I would have it a couple different ways. And also look at valuations, because to your point, hard assets, you know, real estate has gone bonkers with the rate increases because of the lack of supplies. So

that's a pretty expensive asset class to own. Whereas other markets like interest rate volatility, the market that I specialize, it's down over 50% since Silicon Valley Bank. And you kind of want to scratch your head and say, why is that? Like the fundamentals, if anything, have gotten worse, not better. All the same problems exist. It's just been a huge way that people are trying to cut carry around the world in this, you know, kind of very tight credit spread environment. That makes a ton of sense.

Dan, how are you looking at this right now? Oh, I didn't realize my microphone was on unless you opened it. No, it was on. So I figured that meant you were really excited to say something. No, I didn't realize my microphone was on unless you opened it. No, it was on, so I figured that meant you were really excited to say something. No, I didn't realize it was on. Yeah, good to be back, everybody.

Yeah, I think it's interesting. I think I'm getting less worried about a Kamala victory. I think market price, I think, well, I can't even really see it in my head, which is kind of worrying. And there's a Bitcoin going up. I think, you know, we've been talking for a while about this cold spring. I just think it's time. I've been looking at the funding rate on perps, and that has exploded.

Over the last two, three months, the funding rate on perps has been really low, like abnormally low. It's even been negative on Deribet, which is where I trade quite a lot. And then the last couple of days, it's ripped over 30%. So I think something is moving. I'm kind of annoyed at myself because I was going to buy some call options on MicroStrategy, but my bank didn't approve my loan in time, so I wasn't able to execute it. Other than that, yeah, not much more I can add. It's been a great, great space today. So, yeah.

DB, Andrew, either of you have a particular – go ahead, Andrew. Yeah. rates and all that stuff. There's probably not a massive meaningful difference in where quote unquote inflation goes. I think there is a difference in how that actually gets played out. I don't think tariffs is as meaningful a narrative as the previous guy stated. Those tariffs have been around now for more than eight years. They really weren't rolled back by the current administration. I don't think they'll be rolled back by whatever next administration exists. It's a difference between printing money and just handing out free money, which is more so a democratic, you know, sort of process, democrat process, as opposed to a massive

reduction in rates, which is already in process, but under Trump, I think would be accelerated. I think he'd put, whether it's public or private pressure on's been publicly stated to some extent by Trump, either short term or long term. His his statements have been that lower interest rates are a good thing across the board. So I think one way or another, you're going to get money supply bubble again. I think that will be helpful to crypto overall. But I think there are much, much bigger and more important narratives associated with elevated Bitcoin and crypto prices having to do with the likes of a massive change in the architecture and the way that people have access to these hard assets, right? So obviously spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot Ethereum ETFs.

I think one major difference associated with crypto prices is if we get a Trump administration, I think we see, you know, a Solana ETF, an XRP ETF, and heaven only knows from there, um, you're going to get, you know, massive opening of, of regulatory processes that will be a, a, an enormous change from what we've seen over the last three and a half years. Um, and, um, uh, an enormous change from what we've seen over the last eight years, because previous to that, it wasn't even part of the conversation. It just crypto had not gotten to that point. So it's hard to find downside. I've said this for six months. It's hard to find legitimate and meaningful downside to Bitcoin in particular, but then crypto. The only meaningful downside associated

with crypto beyond Bitcoin is if a Harris administration remains as anti-crypto as this current administration is. And I don't think, at least I'm not in the camp that believes that there's some material shift that will happen if she wins the election and somehow Gary and Elizabeth become different human beings. I don't think that's a reasonable stance to take. But the polls and, you know, all of the what seems to be where things are headed, there's a, you know, a material shift coming. I mean, think about it this way. You know, you've got a guy like Elon Musk who's as pro-Trump as anybody of his scale has ever been. You know, is there a world where things like, you know, Doge and the like, you know, have real, they just really move in a big way. You know, is there a world where meme coins, you know, find their way into some level of

the traditional space? That's hard for me to conceptualize, but stranger things have happened. I think more to the point, you know, this doesn't get talked about enough, but it should. You know, Larry Fink, BlackRock, Citadel and others, you know, have designs that are in the process of creating an entirely new stock exchange that runs 24-7 and is probably tokenized in Texas. I think that's the door that opens that will, you know, really, really move this space into a different stratosphere in terms of overall market cap. DB. Hey, good morning. I know there was at least one person I couldn't hear like Nancy, gotta love Twitter spaces. But one thing I found interesting is how strong the cycle has really stayed true, like we've been saying for the entire year and beyond.

Regardless of whatever's happening macro-wise, we got war threats or assassination attempts or change of candidates, whatever it may be, legal issues. We've been talking about it the entire year. The cycle has done exactly what we've said it was probably going to do. The four-year cycle is still on track, still in play. And it almost seems like no matter what happens, it's really not setting it off. Whether that's just people playing off of expectations, or it's just how the cycle really works, which is kind of interesting to me.

But it was interesting hearing also the differences in the candidates. Obviously, I agree with the majority of them that regardless of who wins, it's a good look for crypto and Bitcoin. Hearing that something that Kamal is going to have a better or a more of an impact on direct prices, especially in the short term. That's definitely interesting. But the case, I don't know who was it that was saying it, maybe Alex or whoever, that how the money would come into the ecosystem was definitely interesting. So it makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I think the Josh, I mean, we obviously see what Bitcoin is doing. I think DB is correct in that this is where we should be in the cycle. Assuming

actually that it continues up from here, right? But what does that mean for how you then proceed into all coins? What are the things you're watching now for what might actually move if we're not going to get sort of that all-coin season all the way across the board? I mean, we've seen, I think you and I talked about, obviously, Gunzilla launched off the grid. I think right now that's the number one game effectively in the world by certain metrics.

And I think it's on Avalanche. And that's a AAA game on PlayStation, Xbox, that's blockchain crypto native, right? So maybe gaming could be it. Is it going to be the sort of suey aptos narrative we've been seeing right now, where it's, you know, new layer ones competing? I mean, or is it just going to continue to be the washing machine that you described earlier? I mean, I think I think that's a good question. I mean, I think the things that I'm looking out for, I mean, the biggest problem that altcoins have right now, is that there are too many of them and too many more of them are launching is just a challenge that exists in the space, right? I mean, you have coming out soon, you have, you know, just on just from an L1, L2 perspective, and this is just a sample of them, you have Monad launching, you have

movement launching, you have Eclipse launching. So there's more and more assets coming to this space. And there's not more and more capital that's, that's, that's involved, right? So, I mean, I think, I think, and we spoke about this, I think, I think before, right, but, but one of the biggest things, right, is, you know, in order for this space to move, in order for alts to move, we need to see more capital rotate into the space. Right. And the folks that are coming into Bitcoin, a lot of these large institutions, you know, maybe they're doing a basis trade. Some of them are going long, but that money is not going into spot necessarily. And so you ask yourself, well, where is the money coming into spot that that's going to move alt? And I think that's a challenge, right? Because retail is not here now. Obviously, if things start moving, maybe they'll come. I think the biggest thing is, you know, can prices maintain themselves as unlocks continue to happen across the board for venture backed tokens? Because I think the biggest thing is like I was speaking to a fund yesterday, and this is just an example of one of their positions, they had put $125,000 into a

token, that $125,000 position at launch of the coin was $300 million. But by the time they got their money out, it was actually less than 30 million. Right. And so you know, when they go out and they go and they try to raise more capital, obviously, that's a great return, right? And that's actually going to return the fund, right? But like, in order for people to want to invest in venture funds, which funds funnels more money into the space, at kind of the earliest stage, which I think is needed to continue a lot of the growth of crypto, right, those funds need to be able to return money to investors. And if you know, there's these massive unlocks that are just, you know, sold and sold and sold, and there's more and more assets coming in, those assets are taking people's attention. I think that's going to be a challenge. I think we also

need to see, you know, you know, we need to see more money flowing into the venture space, we also need to see more money flowing into the liquid space, right? Like, you know, most of the capital that's flown into crypto has flown into early stage venture funds. We do need to see some of like the liquid venture style hedge funds that are created to kind of hold crypto from like a long venture style perspective, seeing more inflows of capital, because those are going to be some of the buyers of the assets. I mean, obviously, you either need one institutional flows or two retail flows in order to upkeep the market.

And so, you know, obviously, I think you'll see some dispersion. I think you'll see some assets outperform others. But I think, you know, for the entire industry to see massive growth, we do need to see more capital flow into it. That makes perfect sense. Alex Thorne, is that aligned with sort of how you guys are viewing this right now when it comes to the altcoin market? Anyone else? I'm not sure Alex can hear me. Yeah, I forget if that was Josh speaking or her, but yeah, he's spot on. And this is something I've been talking about for much of the year this cycle as well as the next couple of years

because of the amount of tokens that are going to be unlocked compared to previous quarters and years there's so much that is still to come and unlocked and a lot of these tokens are still massively underwater from the valuations that they initially launched with. If we remember, some of that launched with 10, 20, even $30 billion valuations, and only 10, 12% in supply, circulating supply. So I think this is going to have a big impact on the next year or two at minimum due to all the unlocks. And like Joshua was pointing to, the capital that these VCs kind of need to get back, I guess, out of the ecosystem. Yeah, I mean, just to add to that, you know, like in this space, right,

like the vast majority, so a lot of the early stage crypto funds, like the 2017-2018 launch funds or vintages, those VC funds did really well. They returned a lot of capital. And on the back of that, they were able to raise a lot of capital in 2021 and 2022. The vast majority of those funds have returned little to no capital to their investors. And in order for those guys to raise money again, they're going to have to return capital investors. And I think what you're going to see is with some of the winners that they have in their portfolio, naturally, they're going to need to sell down on those positions in order to start returning capital so they can raise more money again in the future. And I think that's going to come from losers as well, just trying to get out of their money.

But I think from winners, you're going to see on some of these new launch low you know, low flow tokens, you're going to see sell pressure no matter what. So just something to be aware of. I think that makes a ton of sense. So I think, guys, we've pretty much covered it today. Loving this Bitcoin price action here at 66,000. I think it remains to be seen over the coming weeks if this is just more sideways chop and getting've been getting excited about our, if this is really the catalyst to finally get things moving to the upside. Once again, since I'm here alone, I like to say, follow everybody on stage,

please. If you're listening to this, there's 3,636 of you. So I expect that everybody on stage will get 3,636 new followers today. Okay. So go ahead and follow everybody on stage. We love them all. And otherwise, we will be back, of course, again, tomorrow, 10, 15 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Everybody have a great day. Let's hope that we're talking about $70,000 Bitcoin tomorrow. Have a good one. Bye.