The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Is Going To $500,000 In This Bull Market

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

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Bitcoin is going to $500,000 in this bull market. Not according to me, but according to an article by Bloomberg, it's already that time, guys, where we're seeing hyperbolic targets, massive numbers, million dollars, 10 billion by 2030. Is this purely hyperbolic? Is this based on any sort of fact? They use the word super cycle, which triggers me already because that was the best signal that we were at the top last time. I'm going to hopefully discuss it with John Najarian. He hasn't popped in yet, but I decided to just start without him. And if he

doesn't show up, we'll just talk about the news, look at some charts. And I got Wick on the back end talking about some trading alpha. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we please subscribe to the channel hit that like button comments over here scott open your mouth in the thumbnail you are so close to instant youtube stardom yeah we change the thumbnails a little bit so i have a slight bit of emotion so i don't look like an emotionless robot going like this but yeah i still don't think i can get to the mouth open park. Good morning. That's dope. Says, right.

Is this it? Wait, nope. That's not it. That's dope. There it is. That's dope. Yeah.

We got that one. Hope you guys are all having a wonderful day. Kristen's been back of late. We see you there, girl. We see you. Good to see you. I saw Des in here.

All the usuals, Revy, FPL, wannabe, rusty bot, Colin, cosmic contrarian all the usuals, Revy, FPL, wannabe, Rusty Bot, Colin, Cosmic Contrarian, the P-Man, Van, everybody here, Gregory Russell. You can tell I'm a little bit off my game since I'm just reading a bunch of comments and words because John is not here. But that doesn't mean that we can't talk about what we're going to talk about because you know I got hot takes all day for you. So first of all, here is the article in question. Bitcoin is going to $500,000. Largest coin has notched a 2023 rally that few predicted. If you're wondering right here,

biggest token, this will push the super cycle, fresh super cycle, that will push the world's biggest token above $500,000. what adherents say is the new monetary order taking Wall Street by storm. God damn it. Are we really doing this again? We're a new order, new paradigm. Have you guys ever seen the Wall Street cheat sheet when you get euphoria, what it says underneath? New paradigm. We're already using all the words that signal every single top. That doesn't mean that I think it's a top, but damn, man, I really don't want to read about that. Such is the palpable sense of euphoria within the digital assets community right now, where

the largest token is coming off its third month of gains, adding another 11% so far. Yeah, we know. I'm going to show you guys something really quick. This is where we're at right now. Not that this is a guaranteed thing, but the crypto fear and greed index sitting at a cool 75. Greed. We've been greedy for a month. We were at 70 just a month ago, 68 last week. Currently, it's 75. I think 80 hits us to extreme greed. But the thing is, you can't just counter trade the sentiment of a silly indicator that says a number. It just does give us an idea that we are back, baby, and that people are really starting to believe. I'm going to bring up that Wall Street cheat sheet in a second. If I can find it,

we can talk about it right now because, hey, we're winging it, right? But let's take a look, right? You got depression. I think we were in depression. My argument was that we were still in depression, but I think we might have gone through disbelief and we might now be into this hope right now and heading into optimism. The rally is real, right? We're talking about it. 500,000 doesn't mean we don't have a long way to go until euphoria, but it is starting to concern me a bit that we're extremely greedy and people are talking about $500,000 targets. Do you guys think that we can really get to $500,000? Is that a thing? Listen, my estimate of the last cycle, because I was a complete and utter ridiculous bolt hard. Very, very guilty of being bullish at the top last time, guys. I'm not the only one, but I openly admit that I was very

guilty of being too bullish at the top. Bitcoin passed 65,000, went to 69,000, made a new high, clear skies, back down to 15, right? I thought we were going straight to 100. I thought every shit coin of the smallest variety micro caps were going to still 50x from there. I was posting charts. Went bad. Still holding most of those coins, by the way, in case you're wondering. But yeah, can we really get there? What's the catalyst that's going to do it? Why are we so far ahead of the four-year cycle right now? I think the answer is very obvious. And that is BlackRock. By the way, I think we go, my target, as I said, was 235 last cycle. And that was an average, parable of the ox, I've told you about it. That was an average of all of the targets that people had, like from a million dollars down to 10,000, all those things.

Right. But this is the reason that we're seeing this price action. Let's be honest, be real honest. BlackRock, Bitwise file updated spot, Bitcoin ETF applications with the SEC. Now I talked to Matt Hogan from Bitwise here on this very channel, very show last week, right? You were here, you listened. It was great. And he talked about how there's actually two different approvals that need to happen. The one that everybody talks about is the 240 days, the 19B4, I think, 2 plus 2B4. Y'all ever hear that joke?

Use it in a sentence, 2 plus 2B4. It was a joke from Truly Tasteless Jokes when I was a kid. I'm not sure I'm allowed to tell the rest of the joke. But anyways, right? We know that the S1 is the secondary thing that nobody talks about that also has to be approved for them to launch so they can get approved and still not launch if their S1 is not up to date or approved. BlackRock and Bitwise updated their S1 filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs with the SEC on Monday. And this comes with a slew of these announcements. Seemingly every single day we have a new filer, one of the big 12. Now I think it's 13. Call them the big 12 though, because it's a football conference. Every single one of them

updating their paperwork, meeting with the SEC, going in, refiling, changing the rules, having robust debate with the SEC about the structure of these things. The SEC would not, in my opinion, it's my opinion, would not be wasting their time, energy, and resources. The SEC is not just Gary Gensler, right? They would not be wasting all this time and resources directly engaging after 10 years of Bitcoin spot ETF applications unless they intended to approve them and likely approve them all at once. Obviously, everybody knows we've got that January 10th-ish date that week, kind of after Christmas, January 5th, 10th, whatever that week is, that relative timeframe roughly where we think we can see all of them approved. And then think about this. What I find interesting when you dig into that, okay, let's say that does happen. Best case scenario, 90% according to Balchunas and Safer from Bloomberg,

of course. Think about the competition for AUM. A, I think BlackRock wins, but a grayscale conversion, they already have AUM, that could also be interesting. But what we're going to see, even with the Ethereum spot ETF, which did nair nada, nothing, nair nada, if y'all can tell me what movie nair nada comes from,

then I will send you probably nothing. Thumbs up. Nairnada. But we saw a lot of the companies that were launching Ethereum spot ETFs putting up billboards and advertising in the subway and running commercials. She says, Queen says Friday.

That's close. Same genre, but it's not. It's how high? That's right. That's right. Baby powder. Baby powder. I've been pipping business, pipping, pipping, pipping.

Yeah, baby powder. My guess. Anyways, but he was also in next Friday, so it can be confusing. I understand that. But anyways, what we're going to have is 12 companies competing with their marketing dollars to aggressively market Bitcoin spot ETFs and by proxy to aggressively market Bitcoin to your everyday retail investor in financial publications, on the internets where some of them have just learned to use email because they're 75 years old, right? And so we are going to have a massive marketing campaign from all of Wall Street for our beloved asset for

the first time in history, assuming we get all these approvals. Popcorn playa. That's right. You guys know about that. Have you guys seen the movie How High? I'm a ghost. I'm a ghost. One of the most quotable movies of all time. You should watch it. It's my wife's favorite movie. It's my wife. It's Emmy's favorite movie, How High. Favorite movie. But we know that they're all updating's favorite movie. How hot? Favorite movie. But we know that they're all updating these. And one other thing we had rumor about in the past was, holy crap, if they're on the Delaware website and they're on the DTCC website

and they're getting listed, they need to seed. They need to seed their ETF. That means they need to get some money in there in advance of an approval. A lot of it, like checks, notes, $100,000. I could have sent that in. BlackRock received 100K seed fund for Bitcoin ETF SEC filing. BlackRock and other financial giants have entered the race to launch the first spot ETF in the United States. What's interesting here is they don't know who it came from. An investor agreed to purchase 4,000 shares for $100,000 in October

of 27, 2023 at $25 per share, acting as a statutory underwriter with respect to the seed creation baskets. Last time I read statutory in a story, it wasn't as positive. But we did have, I believe, now I'm thinking about it, Anthony Scaramucci on the show not long ago saying that he was the first guy to send some money in for the BlackRock ETF. You guys remember that? Take the test high, get high scores. They should not leave me alone on YouTube.

It's not appropriate. It's not appropriate. But they have seeded this ETF, but only with $100,000. We're not talking about millions and all the AUM in the world that's going to be needed. But yet another signal that this thing is likely happening. God, you guys are hitting me with the quotes over here. Some of them I can't read, but how high, man? What a good movie. Popcorn player, I need money. Robinhood says crypto, by the way,

there's going to be people who listen to this on Spotify and Apple Music and like, what is happening? Yeah. Robinhood says crypto trading surged 75% November from previous month. Not really a big surprise considering October was depressing and they were down like 4,700,000%.

But still notable, Robinhood said Monday that November crypto notional trading volumes were about 75% above October 23 levels. I would love to dig into this because the primary assets that were always being traded on Robinhood were like Doge, right? So I wonder how much of this is strictly Bitcoin,

how much is Doge, how much is just simply people paying attention again. But very clearly, if the numbers are up on Robinhood, we're seeing Bitcoin breaks 41,000, touches 42,000 in every financial publication. I think it's fair to say that for the first time in this cycle, for the first time in this cycle, retail's back. They're paying attention at least. I want to know, did any of your friends or family members ask you about Bitcoin over the past few days? I'm finally getting people asking. It is happening. And that's just the beginning, right? And I realized now I have to go. I'm just me that I don't have my producer yet. I have to go. I'm going to do it right now. I have to take John's name out of all this,

right? Because he didn't show up, which is fine. Which is fine. I'm going to do it right now. I have to take John's name out of all this, right? Because he didn't show up, which is fine. Which is fine. I'm going to do it right now, though, because I'm going to forget. Have you ever guys ever seen someone with ADHD do things live when he doesn't have a plan? Welcome to my life. No one's asking.

None yet. Nobody's asked me. I lied and said I sold it. That's funny. I don't think I have this sample. Hide your kids in here. Hydra Kids, they're raping everybody up here. I don't have that one. But yeah, you guys are remembering the things we used to do here like this. Yeah. So Robinhood up massively and all of this in a pretty shaky macro backdrop. I know that stocks only go up, right?

I mean, let's take a look. SPY opened. We're still on free market, obviously. It's going to open slightly down, but this isn't a huge move. Gold with the most savage rejection I've ever seen. Have you ever guys ever seen Dikembe Mutombo? No, no, no, no, no. This is just savage if we're going to talk about what's happening in macro markets.

I talked about it yesterday because Peter Schiff had a public orgasm about the new all-time high for gold. And immediately, immediately, it got just absolutely sent into the upper deck of the stands. Just a massive, massive rejection. I have a picture somewhere of me with Dikembe Mutombo. He's like this tall. I was DJing and he came into this place called The One Hotel in Miami. I used to DJ on the roof on Thursday nights. Soul House was the name of the party. Dikembe Mutombo came in.

He was like, no, no, no, no, no, no. You know, just jamming. Let me get a picture with you on the way out. And it's a selfie. And it's like the angle is up. He looks like he's 19 feet taller than me. It's wild. But this is like one of the ugliest candles I've ever seen on the quote unquote break of an all time high. Look at it on the daily. I mean, that is not only breaking the old range high from the all time high of July, 2020, but also breaking through the all time high from the all-time high of july 2020 but also breaking through the all-time high where it swept that top and look it swept the highs there at 20 came all

the way back down to 18 this looks to me honestly on that candle like gold wants to come back down to the bottom of this range i know that's crazy because it doesn't align with the doomers and and everything has to die and it's over. But it is what it is, man. That is a savage rejection of gold on a new all-time high. You would think that the world's oldest asset that's been trading, obviously, on the internet for tens of thousands of hundreds of millions of years. Okay. Thousands of years, not on the internet. I was exaggerating. For all these years, you would think that this asset makes a new all-time high and it's blue skies and we go straight to 3,000. No, not a thing that happened in the least at all.

Hugh says I had too much sun. There's no such thing as too much sun, my friend. Got to get that vitamin D all up in you. Let's check while we're here. I'm going to bring Wick on in a couple of minutes because I've yammered on myself and this was not planned. TLT, guys, about to pump to a new high. Remember the guy that said his biggest position in all equities and such outside of crypto was TLT and was buying aggressively from like 86 down to 83? What has two thumbs and is feeling really good about that trade? This guy. This guy. It looks so good. Back above this resistance. I'm just feeling really good about that. Yeah. No show to Jerry. And it's okay, man. I'm sure he had a christening or child being born or something. I love John. Love him. If he doesn't show up on me, man,

I've been rejected by much worse people than John and Jerry. And to be honest, he accepted the invite. We were good. We talked. This is what it is. Christopher Walker says, I'm driving right now. This is hilarious, Scott. I would like you to know that I really appreciate Christopher Walker for always being here, but it would be much better if it was Christopher Walker. The watch. I took the watch and put it in my ass. Pulp fiction. Anyways,

guys, since I've got some charts here and my plan was to talk to John for all this time, I'm hoping he's ready because I'm going to bring Wick up on the stage. It'll just be a shorter stream today. Are you there, Stream? Are you there? Hey, what's up, Scott? Sorry, John couldn't join you. I was looking forward to hearing from him,

but we can go on, man. I got some charts for you. Bitcoin's ripping and let's take a look at them. You're another John, so it's fine. There you go. One John's enough. Yeah. We once had a guest come on. I think it was Stacy recently, and she was like, the best guest is always first. And you took sort of offense to that. Well, we got the better John this time, and you're the only guest. There you go.

I'm here for you, Scott. Let's look at these charts. Let me share my screen. Yeah, pull up your screen. Let's see what you got. Guys, we're going to get into the trading alpha, of course, the soft pitch. It's right down in the description if you guys do want to use these indicators and sign up. I've told you over and over again, whether he's here or not, this is how I know. I know you have a screener coming, but this is how I now screen everything.

Before I go to my gray and blue charts, I just check where it's at at trading alpha first, because it's so much easier than pulling up all these fresh charts. And look at that thing, man. Yeah, absolutely. So, you know, as we can see, you can start with Bitcoin on the daily chart here. You know, Scott, I like to take a whole bunch of types of technical analysis and kind of marry them together, things that are synergistic with each other. So one of the things that I like to do is take what I call stage analysis, right? And then marry it with different types of setups, which are trending setups, volatility setups, which I'll show you now. But just looking at the cycle, right? We had a cycle where we keep having

these basing stage ones that break out above your resistance zone. It kind of base for a little bit, volume dies. It kind of, this was actually, in fact, I'll show you something here. This is our volatility indicator. And what happens is you see these shadings and they precede very large moves and you're kind of waiting for a breakout arrow after them. And they tend to happen in your stage three basings, which is this right here coming up from your stage two uptrend to a stage three basing. They also happen in your stage one basings that are just before your

breakouts. Okay. So what's really interesting to me is that even over here in your stage, you know, stage two, stage three basing, when you start to break down a little bit, we had a squeeze breakout to the downside and these kind of proceed these moves and they kind of give you a heads up. So you can see there was two squeeze breakouts before the actual move, right? So even over here, we could tell that we were a little bit, you know, bearish from the top. We needed to kind of pull back. After that, we went into a stage one basing. And what's interesting to note is the same thing kind of happened, right? We're in a stage one basing. We get that little shaded squeeze. We try to break

to the upside. We get rejected right at that resistance zone that we had up there, but then we form another squeeze shading. Okay. So when you have like consecutive ones like that, it's a very easy setup for us. You know, we're watching the squeeze shadings. You already had one, try to break to the upside, pulls back a little bit, doesn't even make lower lows. And then we have another squeeze shading, right? And then we break out to the upside. So if you marry that with, let's say a trend setup, right? We have some trend setups and we have some bottom setups. You can see the bottom started printing over here in the stage one basing. In stage one, we actually want the price action to go above and below what I call the track line, okay? So this is how we actually identify stage ones, okay? But then we kind of get ready. We're not taking any positions here,

if you're a trader and you're looking for this squeeze shading again, but then look what happens. We break out above this actual resistance zone and we actually close above it. Okay. And we also get green dots at the same time, right? Right after we had bottoming patterns. So this is a classic setup that I share with a lot of people, but this is what starts your stage two uptrend. And once you start that parabolic stage two uptrend, it's pretty easy for us because we have what we call these micro trend green dots and they show you the micro trend. Okay. So what I like to do is every time that we break into a parabolic move, I simply just follow the dots, right? As long as they keep printing, the trend is strong. And as soon as they

stop printing, you see your first sign of weakness and it picks it up pretty much sooner than anything, right? So what you have here is your stage two uptrend. Boom. We go into another stage three basing pattern defined by the resistance zone that I've had up here for quite a while. We tag it almost to the upside. We kind of make a range here. In a range, when we're doing this, there's really nothing to do. For those people that really want to trade, this is a place where you can take some scalp trades, trying to tag range highs to range lows. But for me, I'm more of a weekly and daily timeframe trader, which is your swing trades and your investing. Just like you, Scott, it's much easier to make money over the longterm than it is trying to be right a thousand times in

scalping, which a lot of people do successfully, especially people like Shardy. But again, we're in the stage three basing, right? If I'm reading the tape to you guys, we go into another squeeze shading. So over here, you should have already had the heads up. Okay. A big extreme move is coming. If you're reading the tape, we still have green dots. They just stopped over here, started again. This is telling you that it kind of wants to break to the upside. Again, we're having this bullish consolidation right under the zone, which I've talked about every time that we've had consolidation, right? Especially if you get green dots that break just above it, which is exactly what we did. The squeeze shading gets a breakout arrow, green dots above the resistance,

and we're in another stage to uptrend. Now, why have I told you this is because I see a lot of people setting targets, right? You just mentioned the $500,000 target and people that are seasoned like you and myself are used to this. Every time this happens, you find people that want some exposure, some attention, and what a better way to do it than just to throw out a huge, extreme number. So I'm not really a fan of setting targets as a trader. Yeah, because as a trader, Scott, as a true technician, you can't predict how high something is going to go. What you're supposed to do is look for a bullish setup, okay, AKA what I've shown you guys, and then ride this with a stop loss and keep managing your stop loss up until you're taken out. And when you're taken out, right, you don't be mad.

You don't be upset. You simply just wait for the next setup, right? It's a profit on the books and that's what you want. So right now where we are, Scott, on the daily, we're holding green dots. They haven't stopped. This is your parabolic move. This is all you got to do is just set your stop loss. If I had to set it right, I think there's a good chance that we could pull back to maybe 40,000. It's a good round number. Normally in this type of move, you can have a pullback to the breakout, but I don't think we're going to see that with Bitcoin. If anything, over the weekend, maybe with low liquidity, maybe we go to 40,000. That's your bearish argument, right? But right now as a technician, it's got green dots, right? On the daily. I find it really interesting. Sorry to interrupt, but I obviously have been

pretty deep in training alpha. Usually even in the consolidation, you see the green dots ceasing, but you see at least at some point, like they back off and maybe you'll even see like one or two red dots. But every single daily candle here has a green dot. At no point did this trend even remotely change.

Absolutely right. And that's what I like about marrying different types of technical analysis, right? We've got the staging you can see here up at staging below. So this is your base one, your basing where I expect it to go above and below the track line. I expect it to go from

red dots to green dots. But what I'm looking for is when we have the shaded squeeze, are we getting green dots? Is it trying to break out to the upside? And afterwards, do we get a lower low? And no, we don't. We get a higher low, okay? So for me, this whole structure to me was bullish, and I'm simply just waiting for that, that resistance to be broken. Okay. What we are right now, we're not even in that. We haven't even formed a little basing pattern.

We're simply still in a stage two uptrend. Okay. Now the issue is, and it's not really an issue, but if we go to the weekly chart, okay, I call this my, uh, my macro view. Okay. And the same thing happened, right? You have this basing here, this basing, uh, my macro view. Okay. And the same thing happened, right? You have this basing here, this basing, uh, range that we were in. Uh, you get a squeeze shading breakout arrow,

green dots again, same setup, right? Keep it simple. Ride the green dots all the way. Look, what would have happened if you wrote it on the weekly chart for the last cycle? The green dots didn't stop until right here. Okay. Went into your stage three, uh, sideways consolidation pattern should have gotten ready for, you know, possibly a stage four or continuation didn't stop until right here. Okay. Went into your stage three, uh, sideways consolidation pattern should have gotten ready for, you know, possibly a stage four or a continuation stage two, maybe take half profits, uh, start stage four, boom. Then you start another stage one basing. I mean, this is really simple, Scott breakout to stage two. What do we get? Another squeeze shading, right? To let you know, another extreme move is coming. We got green dots, breakout arrow.

And this was the blow off top. I think over here, if you look at RSI, we actually did get bearish divergence. And this was also a pretty big signal for a double top. Yeah. Then we get what? Another squeeze shading, letting you know extreme move is happening. We break below the track line. We have red dots.

We're now know that we're in stage four. We're out of this move. We don't care if there's green dots. Once you're in stage four, you simply just don't get into a move until we're above the track line. Okay. So stage four, you missed all of this. You start making your little bottoming patterns over here in stage one, double bottom, right? Which is identified by the bees green dot. Just like I said, break above the track line above resistance and you're in stage two. Okay. We go into stage three basing pattern. Just like I said, break above the track line above resistance and you're in stage two. Okay. We're going to stage three basing pattern. Just like I said, I expect us to go above and below the track line. Just like I said before, you got green and red dots. We get another squeeze shading to let you know, to pay attention to the breakout, either above resistance or below support

on a close boom, we break above another stage two, right? So just like you wrote the green dots up here, right? And they worked in the parabolic move. This is the best way to go about trading, especially if you're trading parabolic markets. And right now we're in a stage two. Now, where are we at and what can we expect? Well, if we do a little bit of fib work, and that's why you see these red outlines here, This is a fib retracement from the, uh, from the highs to the lows. Okay. And I really like a 50% retrace level. Okay. That means that it's yep. Dropped here, pulls back 50% of that move. And we're tagging that right here. Okay. Normally in a, in an environment that doesn't have a, uh, ETF a month away. Right. And I think that's,

what's really throwing everyone off. I mean, maybe that's why people don't even want to come talk about things like this right now, because it's so hard to predict if you're just going to go off of the news, right? Everyone's emotional. But this is tagging the 50%. Normally when that happens, if we don't break above it, if we do have some trouble here, normally it pulls back to the three, eight, three, two level. Okay. Again, I don't see that. I think that this is a really strong, uh, resistance that we were able to finally break. And I think it's going to hold. And again, I don't even think we get there. I think if anything, we, we maybe test 40 K before we try and go higher and retest the highs. Um, but nothing on this chart is, is, is bearish and there's simply no way to set targets,

right? This is, it's silly to set targets of a hundred, 200, $300 and $500,000. Everyone's saying that is not a true technician. They're just looking for attention. In my opinion, you simply just ride the green dots and that's what I'm doing, right? It's a stage two. This is what we look for. I find the word super cycle.

So triggering after last time, like to say, yeah, super cycle imp triggering after last time. Super cycle. Yeah, super cycle. Implying last time it was Dan Held, I think they coined it. But the idea of the super cycle last time was that no rules, no technical analysis, none of it applied anymore because of the supply dynamics. We were in a super cycle, the rules are off, right? And then you know exactly what happened after that. The rules were back. Yeah, absolutely. And let me ask you about this, Scott. I think a lot of

people are also having some, uh, uh, let's call it PTSD because I'm sure you remember what happened the last time the CME futures, uh, kind of got released and open, right. We had a, I think it was a big rally and then, and then it, then it, then it was kind of the top for a while. It was the dead top. It was the dead top. You and I both. Yeah. Yeah. So it was like December 17th of 2017. They approved... Well, first that was the approval of CME Futures. And we all know what happened then. The market that day literally topped the day of the approval at around 20,000, depending on the exchange. Then we saw sub 4,000 twice in the next cycle. And then I can't remember the exact date. It must've been 21. We had the Bitcoin futures ETF, BITO approved. And that was the local top for a very long time there too. But I mean, my sort of opinion here, maybe it's cognitive

dissonance, but I think that anyone who wants to short Bitcoin institutionally in size can already, and they don't need an ETF to do it. And I think those two products gave them very good ways to do it at the time. I agree. I agree. But I also think the dynamic of just this news event and what happened before, I think a lot of people are getting too emotional. And it's when I kind of sense this in the crowd that I tend to try and drown it out and just pay attention to the chart, Scott, because it's all in the price action. I am expecting a lot of volatility, but again, that's assumptions. I think what the ETF has until what, the 10th or the 11th of January, that's the deadline. Is that correct? Yeah, 10th, I think. Yep.

Yeah. So we still got a month to go to see what happens, right? But to me and all the other true technicians, we're simply doing what we always do is we're riding the stage twos and we're simply just setting stop losses and raising them as we go. And again, if we get stopped out, if the ETF comes and we get stopped out, we just go into the next trade, right? I think people need to understand that there's always another setup to come. And once these bull markets start, right? I mean, we have the having in, I think that's in April coming up. I mean, we're going to have some good times ahead. It's also an election year. So I don't get too worried about these moves. You know, I'm in my stage twos and I play my trade the same way every time, whether there's a news events or not, but I do see a lot of,

a lot of emotion in the market because of what happened last time and, and a lot of assumptions. And yeah. Do you mind? I mean, I don't want to put you on the spot, but a few people have asked if we could just take a look at ETH. I've looked at ETH BTC on Trading Alpha quite a few times. It just looks shattered. Yeah, yeah. No, absolutely. We can do that, right? And that's the issue, right? With this- ETH USD looks good, by the way. It's ETH BTC, I was saying, looks bad. But yeah, I like ETH, but go ahead. Sorry. I like ETH too, right?

But I think that the story right now is definitely Bitcoin. I think it's stealing a lot of liquidity away from a lot of altcoins, especially right now, right? And I think that's going to probably maybe continue the closer we get to the Bitcoin ETF possible approval. But looking at this ETH, we did form some bottoming patterns after your stage four coming down here, near your stage one, and it keeps trying to break out and being rejected at this, fake out at this resistance. In fact, if we turn on our reversals, this was actually a reversal

setup, but it keeps getting rejected. And we had another, if we take off this right here and we put on a more sensitive one, let me see. Was it under settings? Yeah, I was going to say, I was literally about to telegram you. I need to check my settings because some of your shadings don't show up yet in my indicator. Like I got some bigger ones, but some of the newer ones aren't showing up. Yeah, and it all comes down to putting that high sensitivity on. So what's interesting here is you actually had a shaded squeeze over here, but the breakout arrow didn't come to right here. And I told everyone that follows me and especially my discord that I thought that this breakout could be the one catalyst that got us past this

resistance. Once we were into week two, three, it seemed a little weak to me and I told everyone I was disappointed that we didn't see an immediate breakout. We finally did get that breakout above resistance and we are in stage two. This was the move that had held us down ever since April trying to retest it. So this is a big thing breaking out here. Unfortunately, Bitcoin is stealing a lot of the show, a lot of the liquidity. But I still think this is a great setup. I think that if Bitcoin starts to consolidate or after the ETF, I can totally see this retesting the breakout and continuing. I know a lot of people are disappointed in ETH's price action. So am I. I love it though. I mean, I have my chart. like I have to say, I just, I've been just drawing

weekly levels on things to keep people who follow me from freaking out. Like, you know, just kind of big levels. I have the same sort of area, 2159. Breaking above that to me, it was a really big deal. So, you know, I think even if we get a retest, I think you'd 2,500 in the cards. It was ETHBTC that looks so wrecked, but really appealing to me. It's only the fourth time RSI has ever been oversold on the weekly. And I really think that we're just going to make a slightly lower low here and get bullish divergence on weekly RSI. That's what I think is going to happen. I think this comes down somewhere in here. We get a higher low on RSI and we finally get that rocket. Just take some time. Yeah. Listen, I'm not bearish on ETH,

right? And I think everyone's looking to all the other assets that have performed well and they're wondering, I'm in ETH positions, why is it not performing? I mean, if you look at the structure, Scott, you got a low here, a higher low, a higher low, a higher low. Yeah. A higher high, a higher high now. So yeah, a higher high, a higher, higher high now. So ultimately the structure is turning bullish. Again, I just think that, um, you know, Bitcoin stealing the show and then you have things like Solana, right. Which a lot of people are comparing, uh, Ethereum too. And that's, you know, obviously you've, you followed my setups. That's, that's doing really well. It's kind of stalled around 60, $60. But, uh, again, I think that once we get into that people market, the euphoria phase,

I think we'll see Ethereum much higher by then. I just think that right now it's the Bitcoin show. And obviously for most people, for most large institutions, they look at the large caps. And what is that? It's pretty much Bitcoin and Ethereum. So right now, if you've got to choose between one of the two, you're obviously choosing Bitcoin with this super catalyst and this super cycle that everyone's talking about. So I think this is pretty much to be expected, but I do actually like that we finally broke above this resistance and I'm certainly not bearish on Ethereum. Yeah. I mean, it just feels like this is one of those brief moments in the cycle where alts should pause and we should focus on Bitcoin. A hundred percent.

I mean, think about it from an institutional standpoint, right? Any large trading desks. I mean, the story right now is Bitcoin. So all liquidity is being pulled from everywhere else. In fact, I'm surprised that alts have done as well as they have as they have this close up to the ETF possible approval. Right. this close up to the ETF possible approval, right? So yeah, I mean, this is general stuff here with liquidity kind of following Bitcoin right now. I don't see anything wrong with any of these charts, especially Ethereum, even if it's underperforming for now. I think anyone would be a fool not to

consider this as one of their plays, especially as we get closer into the full bull cycle, right? With the halvening and everything. Yeah. I see the comments. Okay. So Fran is correct. When Pepe pumps, it's the end of the Bitcoin run and we are all in for a pullback. I talk to Ran about this all the time. I think very important to understand timeframe. When meme coins go, you're usually about to see at least a small retracement, but we see that Bitcoin has continued to go up even though Pepe has had its moments. But I do think that's a good signal meme coins for when you're about to get a pause. Yeah, no, we see it all the time, right? I mean, that's funny that someone says that because it is,

I mean, that's kind of how it goes, right? The liquidity flows from large caps to medium caps to small caps, and then you get your blow off. And a lot of times that's a signal that we either got to pause for a little bit or maybe the market's going to continue taking profits. So that makes complete sense. Well, damn it. Pepe's pumping, dude. I'm looking. I just pulled it up on the daily. Nice squeeze arrow, guys. I mean, if this doesn't prove to you what he's saying here, that's from one 14 to one 69 in two days on the arrow. Well, look, no TA is magic. Okay. The whole point of TA and many different methods of TA work, right? I'm not here to say that mine's the only one that works. I do think that mine's probably

one of the best put together, if not the best I've ever seen. But what you're always trying to do is you're not trying to have, nothing is an absolute. You can't talk about trading in absolutes. This is definitely going to happen. So what you try to do in trading is you try and put all the probabilities in your favor. Okay. And that's all that, that's all that TA is trying to do to trying to put probabilities in your favor, trying to make sure that whenever you do lose, you keep your losses small and you ride your winners. I mean, it seems simple to do, but when you have emotion come into the game, that's when people make mistakes, right? But for me, this is a good probability setup, right? Not right now, because obviously Bitcoin is still in the show, but when alts rip again, I think Ethereum has a good chance of testing

the next resistance zone, right? And once you get- Yeah, it's even higher. Yeah, I said 25, mid 25s. I mean, that's the chance of testing this, this was the next resistance zone. Right. And once you get up, yeah, it's even higher. Yeah. I said 25, mid 25s. I mean, that's the bottom of that zone. So we obviously agree there.

Absolutely. Absolutely. 25, 16 is what I had. Yeah, absolutely. So yeah, that's it,

Scott. I think it's a, it's a Bitcoin show and, and really there's nothing to go over until we finally get, get that resolve in a, in about a month's time. Awesome. All right, man. Well, thank you as always for showing up on Tuesdays. Appreciate it. Guys, again, listen, I can't recommend Trading Alpha enough. Seriously, if you're looking for

a way to get a very quick overview and just really actionable information on how to trade this market if you are trading, I haven't found anything better and I've been trying for a really long time. So man, thank you for creating it and all you do. Thank you, Scott. And I want to say also that we have a yearly membership and we have the discounts like Black Friday and there might be another one coming up soon. The cool thing about this is that I've also given, I don't have any paid discord, so to speak. I hate that. But what we do have is we do have a discord VIP section. So whenever our members do sign up, they get that VIP access. And what that does is it gives access to me and all our other members. I think there's 50,000 members in our

Discord. And we all help each other and learn how to use these the most efficient way. So if anyone's looking at this thinking that they might be too new to kind of jump into indicators, the whole purpose of me doing this is that you can more so easily identify the setup. So if you're interested, come join us and I'll see you on the Discord. I'm there every single day helping people. Yeah, it's amazing, guys. All right, man. Thank you. I'll let you go. I appreciate you jumping on a bit early too since the inferior John stood me up. No worries. Always here for you, Scott. Take care. Thanks, man. All right, guys. That was awesome. Unexpected that I'd be talking to myself, but you know that anyone who has ADHD knows you can talk to yourself endlessly. Someone says the King of Qatar says he's pumping Bitcoin to a million. I don't know about that quote, but there has been a lot of

rumor that a sovereign wealth fund from Qatar has been heavily, heavily on the bid for Bitcoin, I think for half a billion dollars. Also, let me see. One second. I saw news and I actually own this token, hence the news. Exciting me because I had heard about, not about this specifically, but you hear the chatter. QAN, QANX is the coin, QANA-N-X. Platform signs 50 million VC deal for its quantum resistant layer one blockchain. And this is, if you're wondering, MBK Holding, an investment holding company with its main office in Qatar and a subsidiary in the United Kingdom

focused on investing in technology startups. The founder and chairman, H.E. Sheikh Mansour bin Khalifa Al Thani. God, I wish I had that many names. Member of the Qatari ruling family, formerly served for a decade as director of information technology. That's the guy, right? So this is the Qatari royal family. Forget this platform, doesn't matter whether they're buying Bitcoin. Countries in the Middle East like UAE, Qatar, heavily, heavily focused on winning the battle to be the most friendly regulator to get their money into this space. And I think it's absolutely huge, whether it's quarks or whether they're buying Bitcoin or any of these things. I still really want to dig in more deep to what a quantum resistant layer one blockchain means, even though I do own the token. But hey, yeah, Qatar, man. All right, dudes, tomorrow,

Udi Wertheimer means we're probably going to spend a lot of time irrationally dunking on laser-eyed Bitcoin maxis. Talk about ordinals and wizards and both being excommunicated from the Bitcoin maximalist grand council of level seven magicians who have decided who can and cannot be a Bitcoiner. It's going to be fun. It is going to be fun. Guys, love you. It's amazing to see you all in here. A lot more fun when prices are going up. Let's keep it going. I am out. Peace.