The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Is the PUREST AI Trade | Jordi Visser

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

Bitcoin remains resilient, but the key question is whether the current move has enough real spot demand to continue, with futures activity once again leading the rally. The show also looks at NVIDIA��s $500 billion AI financing push and what it means for the ongoing rotation of capital into AI, while CoreWeave’s strong earnings add to the momentum. On the macro side, Trump is considering major tax and housing policies ahead of the midterms, while the yen intervention appears to be losing its impact and could force the U.S. and Japan into another response. We also cover the CFTC stepping in to protect Kalshi as its regulatory battle with New York escalates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Also, of course, we'll cover all of the news of the day. Excited to have Jordy here. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. I never know what the background's going to be. My producers, they kind of just surprised me. This is some, it's very ethereal. I feel better now knowing that I have this amazing background.

Welcome to the show. Hope you're all having a wonderful Wednesday. Going to go ahead and kill the suspense and bring Jordie right on. Good morning, sir. Good morning, Scott. How are you? Better now, as I said, that I'm here on the lakeside, hazy house. I don't really know what this is.

So listen, let's get started. So the title here, Bitcoin is the purest AI trade. this is coming from your recent substack. And I kind of just want to dig into the thinking here and bring it up. I suggest everybody subscribe, of course, the age of abundance, intelligence, and scarce Bitcoin. Maybe just start with the premise. Then we can wrap in how today's news about Nvidia raising 500 billion and all these things play into this. So I think to, you know, as people get to know me, I try to use words that have a lot of meaning.

And the purest day I trade frustrates people because they think, think that means that when quote unquote AI trades are working, then Bitcoin should be working. That clearly hasn't been the case since October when Opus 4.5 was released and the agentic revolution started. I only think in three to five years down the road and I try to find secular trends and where AI and Bitcoin merge is actually on the disruption side. And this is the, you know, the intelligent abundance piece was really the fact that we have clearly reached a point where the model releases are happening so fast around the globe, and the cost of compute is dropping to where, as an entrepreneur,

you can effectively use AI for next to nothing, as long as you have enough hardware for that. The disruptive phase of AI, I think people have to get used to. Any company that exists today that has any amount of employees, you and I both worked in bureaucracies at some point in our careers, bureaucracies are any Fortune 500 company to make decisions are slow. AI moves at light speed and it's only getting faster and faster. And so we've reached a point now where all businesses over the course of the next five years

will go through a disruption phase from AI. And so when you think about what Bitcoin fits in, Bitcoin is not an innovation. It's a belief at this point. It has made itself into something that people believe in as a store of value. Store of values are what people are going to be looking for within five years. because the disruption from AI will be extreme. It will hit every business. And the only thing that I envisioning being left by the time we've reached five years from now

with humanoid starting to grow rapidly across the planet is to actually be something that isn't disrupted by innovation or by humanoids. And that only leaves things that have a store of value. So it becomes less about finding things that are going up in value. The deflationary side of AI will be driving the cost. cost of things down near zero. And so to keep your value in the future, it's actually about beating deflation, not inflation.

And that's where AI and Bitcoin intersect because of the scarcity side. Any other crypto you're interested in in that same lens? You know, is it Bitcoin only because obviously of the scarcity? Or do you think that there's another role that crypto will play in this, you know, AI-driven future? Well, when we start the next rally in, let's start with Bitcoin. I do think beta is going to outperform. I do think Ethereum,

Solana, the parts that are going to benefit from the network effects, I believe will be the leading ones. I think the Tradfai world is going to need revenues. They're going to need value accrual. They're going to need something to basically invest in. tokenization is going to open up some of that word. So I have personally started to put more money into things like that. If you ask me what I'm watching every single day and we finally got you and I both grew up traders I believe I'm I'm interested in in breakouts um dogecoin which is not something I would ever put money in but I do look at it for the energy of crypto if I think that something is going to have a sustainable run I want to see dogecoin have a little bit of interest it broke above the 20 day moving average for the first time in

months over the weekend um it fell back below and then as of when we started this it was still above it And I like to try to find things that had just broken out after long-term periods underneath. So I'm watching Dogecoin and I'm watching Ethereum, Salonnasui, things like that. Yeah, I'm of a very, very similar mind. I think, obviously, that tokenization and the adoption of the technology are too difficult to ignore, but that Bitcoin's a completely separate beast, right? And so I view it through almost the exact same line. So I want to talk about the actual news to that AI abundance, right?

Nvidia partners with Wall Street Giants to raise $500 billion for AI build-out. Last we spoke, you, which was in New York, I think, at Pomp's conference. You basically told me that this is where the stimulus was coming from. There was never going to be a cease in this appetite for compute, and the amount of money that was going to be needed to build this infrastructure was effectively infinite, right? Because it would have to continue to scale what the uses. I mean, Nvidia is one of the largest companies in the world worth trillions of dollars.

and they're still needing to raise $500 billion, right, to build this out. And basically they've run out of using their own balance sheet. And luckily, you know, the $500 billion, when you go on CNBC and you have Blackstone and you have Apollo and you have Goldman Sachs, you have BlackRock, you have KKR, you're pretty much, anyone who doubts that this is a good investment or that this is going to be money good, they're not borrowing money from, I think, you know, meta borrowed money through Blueout. Right. For their Hyperion one.

We're now further down the road and everyone believes this is going to happen. Compute is an asset. I will continue to say with every single interview I do, but also in all of my own writings, compute demand is infinite. And if people don't understand that yet and they're reading bear porn on this, they ended up losing money not being involved in stuff that has just gone up parabolically this year. We've had a correction, which markets still operate the way they should, which is when things go up in a parabola, they should have a speed crash. It should go down as fast as it went up.

It should give back 38 to 62 percent of the rally, and then we should start the next one. And I think that's what we did. But if I leave people with one thing that they should write down, keep for the next whatever. We started with pre-training. That was where we needed compute to get the intelligence and the IQ up to a level where it could start to be used. The next thing was using the language of coding. So we have coding agents that are just starting to run 24-7-365. We have earnings growth of the S&P at 30 plus percent year-over-year right now. And as I keep trying to tell people, when you have employees that work 24-7-365, everything about year-over-year earnings is a time component, which is based on human time. That's 34 hours a week. So agents basically cut the amount of time

to do stuff from a calendar year into about three months. So you have to start realizing that that means if we were generating earnings at 15% a year and we're doing twice the amount of work in the same amount of time, theoretically you should see earnings in GDP go up significantly. And that's what is starting to happen. But once we get through the language part, the coding agents, which is really for the enterprises, we get into consumer agents. That is where assistance are going. That takes a lot more memory and a lot more compute than the coding agents do. Then you're going to start to get into real world models. And by the way, I would just take the transcript of this, upload it into an LLM and ask it to do the work and see whether A, it believes me, and secondly,

get the actual numbers because the numbers are staggering about how much more. So when you get into real world models, which means cars that can make decisions, you have to understand if you try to hit a fly with a fly swatter, you don't have the latency of, oh, let me put this into chat GPT and wait for the response. You need to respond instantaneously to get that. A humanoid is going to need that. The amount of compute that we need for each of these workload stepups is just thousands of times more than a chat bot. And so we won't have enough compute. We're in the very early stages. And that's why so many of these companies are willing to lend Nvidia money because they see it as there's endless demand.

So it's not just me saying this. It's the actual smartest people on Wall Street that are willing to go out and do the lending. Yeah, I mean, they're putting their money where their mouth is. To really argue with it. When you say we won't have enough compute to specifically mean the United States or the planet, because it seems like China is way ahead in that regard. And I kind of wanted to use that as a segue as you keep up bringing up, obviously, the humanoid and that being maybe the future.

maybe that's going to be the next big trade. I mean, I think everyone's seen this unitary IPO, absolute frenzy. I mean, subscribe by many thousands of times over or whatever the number was. I don't have it in front of me. But maybe this is going to be sort of the next, you know, fomo wave of investment. Well, here's the thing that's funny about it. So when I say compute, it's power, its chips, and then it's the hardware needed to actually do the data centers. So think of the data centers as Jensen Yuang says as factories and we're producing

tokens. The tokens are what's needed for everything. China and the U.S. are in the exact same situation, but from different perspectives. The U.S. leads and chips. Invita is way far ahead of anything that China has at this point. China's ahead of us on power. So that kind of normalizes that. At the same point, we're ahead on other things like software. They're ahead on things right now like rare earth. They have the supply chain in there. They have the hardware size. So we're kind of working together on this, even though China's game plan is clearly to flood the market with the cheaper open source models. And the U.S. is focused on frontier models. And frontier models are going to be massively necessary for science, for the real world models, for all of this stuff.

People probably saw Jeff Dean leaving Google and Demis Sassabas kind of moving into another part. This is clearly a situation where Google has needs for compute for their business. is to get the revenues in the door, while Demasasas and Jeff Dean are focused on science and on real world models and all of the things that come with legacy as scientists. And the reason that's important for this discussion is China and the U.S. have different goals in mind here. But the one place where they all align is they both need power, they both need compute in terms of chips, rare earths, cooling. And that's why when I put together my website for there's a hundred names that I I have in there, they're very correlated, but there are cross sectors.

They're in the industrial space, the mineral space, the energy space, the semiconductor space, the technology space. This is why it's having an impact on GDP. This is why it's having an impact on the stock market. And so far, it's mainly the infrastructure state. We're going to start seeing the profit margin benefits and the productivity gains are coming over the course of the next year and a half. And circling back to the AI agents and potentially these humanoid as well, it's hard

not to focus in on what they'll be using for money. Well, that- But when we're talking about the purest probably argument for the future of crypto. Now, listen, I think the challenge is how do you capture that as an investor? And that's the question mark for many people. Will that value actually accrue to the chains that we mentioned before? You know, are they going to transact in Shiba, Inu, doubtful, or Dogecoin? Right.

But I think it's very clear that digital money will be the preferred medium of exchange. for agents and humanoid effectively being run by agents. This is an important point, particularly while we're in a bare market in crypto, because I know people that reach out to me, like it's great to talk about how this is all going to work out, but it's not working. And I just want to take everyone back to 15 months ago. When I started kind of my writing and I really started to do a lot more work publicly, I kept talking about Micron.

And Micron at the time in March of last year was trading it, you know, between 60 and 100 continuously. It could not break out. The chart looked a lot like the Bitcoin chart does now all of crypto. And the reason I bring it up is to me it was obvious, meaning the same thing you're saying about the network effects and the fact that we're going to need digital money to be transacted on this. But at that time last year, people didn't believe in the AI trade. They couldn't think that far ahead of what would happen. We're already calling you in a bubble. the way. Exactly. And here we are. And I'm saying there's not enough compute now. So the memory trade

was easy. It's not many times in your life you can invest in something and literally make eight to 10 times within a year. But I was able to do that Micron and the people that I talked to. It was obvious by about the time we got to October of last year. So it literally took six more months. And I think what you're describing, and I talk about this too, I'm a mosaic investor. I look at the entire picture and I look for signs that this is going to happen. So I spend a lot of time listening to Jesse Pollock at base and I listened to a lot of what's going on with volumes of stable coin, what's happening with transactions. I'll go and I'll look at what Stripe is making investments in when they look to buy PayPal. And I'm like, well, here's a merchant company

that is looking to connect the consumer company. They have bridge. All of these puzzle pieces are being put together and everyone's worried about the Clarity Act. And I have honestly don't care. And the reason I don't care is the same way in AI. It doesn't stop the inevitability of crypto. Crypto is not a U.S. thing. If we want to be the leaders for the country of crypto, just like we are for AI, then we have to get the Clarity Act in, or the CFTC and the SEC have to make the necessary changes to allow the entrepreneurs to lead the business here and worry about the next election when it comes. The reality is it's no different than AI. You have to think ahead. And your point, which I agree with, we are just beginning the consumer agent side.

I did a call with a crypto fund the other day. And we talked about it. Like, we're just not seeing the agentic transactions yet in any big way. They're growing slowly. That's great. That was the same thing with memory. Memory demand was not going through the roof. But the thing everyone underestimates with AI is once those agents are plugged in and they start

transacting, which will be happening by the end of this year, the numbers grow parabolicly. just go look at the token growth and the inference numbers that happen beginning in May. Everyone's going to start to realize this. That's why I think 2027 is the year of consumer agents, which also means it's the year of crypto. I mean, human beings have two major issues with seeing parabolic things. But they think it's going to happen too soon, and then it doesn't, so they sell. And then when it does happen, we handicap how fast it happens and how fast that parabolic hockey stick goes. And we're in between.

Right? We've done this in crypto every cycle. You know, every four years like, oh, institutional adoption. And then that doesn't happen in 2021, but it does happen in 2025 and 26. And I think that's the story of the agents. It's really inevitable. Like I said, maybe it won't happen on Ethereum or Solana. But none of that's going to be impacted to your point by the Clarity Act.

I mean, your AI agent is not going to go KYC on a centralized exchange to figure out if they can trade in stable coins compliantly, right? It's just going to do things, and nothing's going to stop it. Yeah. And did you grow up in derivatives? You did, right?

I traded for quite a while, yeah. Derivatives weren't my focus, but yeah. I always used to say, because I grew up in the derivative world, that, you know, one of the benefits of taking calculus in college and understanding where you were going to start to run to this and differential equations

was this whole concept of the inability to think in a parabolic manner. or human beings think in a linear function in their brain to make sure that they know how the spear is going to hit the animal when we were hunters. Well, now we're at a point where as things speed up and they compound, it's such a fast pace. And that's the point about Bitcoin. I'm writing a new paper now because the Bitcoin Policy Institute and I were talking the other day. And they were interested in what I kept talking about with time. In Washington, D.C. to get the Clarity Act through, it's just a painful process to watch.

AI agents are not waiting. They're not waiting for human beings to set up the infrastructure. They're just going faster. We've been slow in getting data centers built. We've been trying to delay things. That hasn't stopped the capabilities of AI because that functionality is happening because agents are making things more efficient. They're figuring things out.

The same exact thing is going to happen for consumer agents with consumption. It's not going to wait for swift transactions. Like I don't even know how people don't see this. We're actually so far behind right now in crypto and where we should be with financial guardrails. We already are there. In fact, Cloudfair put out the other day that internet traffic is already more agents than it is humans. The same thing will happen with transactions. That's what we're waiting on.

So when meta says they're upset with the progress in the agentic side, it's not about coding agents. It's about their ability to get people that are on Facebook, that are on Instagram and figure out ways for them to consume things so they can sell average. We're going to get to that very, very soon. Yeah. Interestingly, I think everybody has mentally comprehended the power of the stable coin, obviously, for transacting. And even what that does for the United States dollar around the world, I don't think they're remotely comprehending what tokenization does for U.S. capital markets.

Completely agree. And I think that bridging has huge implications down the road for that purest AI trade theme. I built a, I'm going to start a second YouTube, a weekly YouTube that's going to do the same thing that I do connecting the macro world to the AI side with a little bit of crypto, but this time it's going to be in reverse. Everything is going to be about crypto to make sure that Tradfai understands what's happening in crypto and they start thinking about all the different components. Now, this gets back to the point you made about, well, how do you invest in this? So how do we invest in stable coins? Stable coins to me are no different than AI agent traffic. So there's going to be businesses that deal with the energy that are taking taxes on this.

They're going to be much lower. But you have to understand that when we transact in the, you know, and when we buy a home in the U.S., how many hands take their fees out of this all the way through? Well, AI agents are going to demand that the fees be next to zero or close to zero. So it's not going to be about the spread. It's going to be about the volume and the transactions. So the velocity of transactions, the velocity of money is going to change. When Caitlin Long has talked about this, she and I are completely aligned on this, that you're dealing with a world that's going to move much faster in much shorter period of time. And if you speed up the velocity of money, you're going to speed up the velocity of transactions, there'll be less fees for the middlemen.

But the numbers we're talking about are massive. So when people always ask me, so what do you see the size of the crypto ecosystem, you know, a decade from now? And I go, well, 100 to 200 trillion, because right now the middlemen have created value of 7.000. hundred trillion in assets in the Fiat system. And over time, if those are not growing anymore, and that's the one thing I like to say to people, I find myself to be the most bearish person five years from now on the Fiat assets. I don't think they're going to grow anymore. Right now, we've seen it with bonds. We've seen it for the most part with VC and private equity and private credit. The equity market is still growing, but the equity market should be the last place to grow.

But the ecosystem of entrepreneurs, the atropics, the stripes, the open AIs, well, they're not public yet. They're growing. Those companies will need to go public because they need the capital. But entrepreneurs like myself, like you, that are running businesses that are not public, you know, Fortune 500 companies. With AI, you can create another business in a day. You don't need capital for it. So you're going to see massive amounts of businesses pop up. And this is the whole thing is you have to think in speed. Human speed is going to become less relevant in the friction and the taxes than the spreads that people take out. Just like we saw in the stock market when you took computer trading and you move the spreads down close to zero,

the same thing's going to happen in the entire world. And that's a deflationary outcome for the middleman and it's positive for crypto. I mean, we talk about the theoretical future size of the crypto market. I mean, you can just look at the DTCC, which settles $4.5 quadrillion dollars in volume the year and they're tokenizing everything. Once again, that maybe doesn't benefit me as a holder of Bitcoin or Salana, I have no idea. That's really them improving the plumbing in a walled garden of a system that already exists. But if they're doing it, everybody's doing it. And a lot of that is going to happen on the blockchains that need, you know, at the most simple level, tokens for gas. Right. So I agree with you. I mean, you're talking about hundreds of trillions.

So let's go through it. Because another thing aside from the purest AI trade, I've said Bitcoin is the S&P 500 of the future. Now, when people try to figure out what that means, I always say, so if I asked you what the S&P 500 was, and if you describe it, like how it's been around this long, the names inside the S&P change all the time. They change based on the ability of companies to disrupt those businesses. So if all of a sudden disruption happens overnight and you can replicate someone's idea, then you stop their growth. The S&P 500 is about, growth. If you can't grow earnings, then you're dropped out of the S&P. So it's a store of value. It is a place where people put money based on the companies that are working today. If competition

goes to infinite speed and there is no, what does Bitcoin become? Bitcoin becomes a store of value when you've invested in another innovation. So the reason I say, okay, Ethereum, Solana and Sui, I'm looking at all of the tax takers, the energy groups, the parts that are you, the parts that are going to be there for the volume side that's going to happen. But we know there's going to be 10 other tokens that could come and do it better than they could. And if that happens, then they're not growing anymore. Where are you going to put your money when something doesn't grow? You only invest in things that grow. If they don't grow while you're waiting, you put it into Bitcoin until you find something else that grows. That's the way the S&P 500 goes. S&P 500 is the safest place for people to

keep their money if they want to be involved in the global stock market because it has the best and the biggest companies in the world. If they stop growing earnings at any point because of AI, the money will shift to the fee out to the crypto side and they'll be looking for things that are growing. And that's where I think these links come together between the purest AI trade, eventually driving it in. And this is why for my index that I've created, which is a 40 name or almost 50 names now of public companies and private companies. So the merging of the tokenized world, that index when you equal weight it looks exactly like Bitcoin. And so I've kind of proven my point, that if you take an index of the ecosystem of crypto

and you overlay that chart with Bitcoin, you pretty much get Bitcoin. I would love to see that. I want to pivot slightly to another newsletter that you recently wrote that aligns exceptionally well with the news cycle. So we have why the historic U.S.-Japan intervention has failed to halt the N slide.

So for people who missed that, the United States did intervene with the N recently. I don't know why it was sort of missed, but I didn't hear many people talking about it, to be quite honest. but you did. The N-Signol and AI agent macro nexus point. So you obviously think that this is important and inflection point.

So let's talk about it. Yeah. I mean, this is, for me, this is a fairly long post for Substack. And I released it to institutional, my institutional clients and then decided that it was important enough, particularly since most of the things I do in Substacked or for the crypto community, it's an important inflection point. So first of all, for a little bit of history, I moved to Brazil in 1997 when I was with Morgan Stanley. And I opened an office for the firm there in my 20s.

I was there during LTCM. I was during the emerging market crisis. And I came back in 1999. So I was there a little over two and a half years. And during the time that I was there during the emerging market crisis, the currencies around the globe were falling. And famously, the U.S. in a coordinated, the last coordinated intervention in the yen with the BOJ occurred while I was there in June of 98. Later that year, we had LTCM blow up.

We had the rush and default and we also had basically a massive devaluation in a revaluation in the yen, which caused the collapse for the most part of Tiger of Tiger. So all of that happened during that period. And so there's two things about it. The week that they intervened in the yen, they did it on Friday after the close. Now, that week was a situational awareness week. That was also the week that basically Kevin Warsh decided that we weren't going to raise rates. And so I took all of those because we have a Fed chair that has been questioned for independence.

And he left that meeting basically saying, well, rates have done the job for us, meaning he implied that long rates were going higher and that was the tightening of financial conditions. so the market was already doing what he kind of wanted. Nobody really liked that. And then all of a sudden, the Treasury said, we're going to intervene in the yen. And the only logical reason, without them saying it, is the fact that the Japanese are one of the largest holders of treasuries

and treasury yields had just come up to effectively 20-year highs. And so this inflection point, when I put it into context, and that's what I wrote about, if you just look at it on the surface, it wasn't a big deal, it wasn't a big intervention. I think that's why it's in. get enough news. If you put it in the context of what's happening, which is, number one, it's connected directly to AI because we see that these companies need trillions of capital.

So they've reached a point now where they can no longer spend out of free cash flow. And so they're tapping the markets. Intel this week, tap the market for 15. They upsized it to 20. Google tapped for $25 billion. You mentioned the Nvidia going out and finding $500 billion. Morgan Stanley announced that they're going to put $1.5 trillion into AI innovation and infrastructure. No matter where you go, the numbers are staggering, and we haven't been raising money for a long time on the long end. So the government didn't have any competition. Basically, they were the only ones issuing long-term debt because the MAG7 never needed debt. Now all of a sudden they do.

So this capital needs are pressuring the back end of the curve. At the same time, that nominal GDP is growing year-over-year right now, it's six and a half, percent. Let's take it down because that includes some bounce back. It's still 6 percent. And we have nominal 10-year yields, not even at five. Historically, they've been above nominal GDP. So we're at a point now where the market is pressuring this. And what that says is they're trying to not let rates go higher. And this is where it brings us back to the problem we have with the deficit and the debt. We have enormous debt. Our deficit's not getting any better. Their goal was to try and run it hot. They can't raise rates because if they raise rates, they make the interest expense, which is already more than defense.

You go through this whole thing and you realize AI is pressuring the situation. The capital needs are growing rapidly. We're right now this year about a trillion. Next year we need more than a trillion. The year after we probably need more than a trillion. You're pressuring the long end. CDS is widening. And so he steps in.

I think the issue is this is the beginning of the printing. And if people didn't see it, Besson came out publicly and said the Fed should increase the cap on FEMA, which is basically a repo facility to allow the Japanese to intervene in their market and not have to sell our treasuries by posting it. This sounds a lot like what they did after SVB, just a different version of it. So regardless of how you go through it, guys, the intervention in the yen is a signal that the U.S. is in trouble. and I don't think the pressure on the yen is going to go away. And I'll end it with one more thing. We currently have a 50% chance, even after the CPI today, of Warsh raising rates in September. The BOJ has a 60% chance of raising rates in September.

I think the Fed probability is closer to zero, because how can you have the Treasury intervene in the yen when we need the rate differentials to be towards yen's strength? us tighten the same month they do. So I believe this was the beginning and gold was up 7% and it was the fourth time in the last 17 years that gold had a 7% week. Two of those were the crisis time period. So I think we got a message from the Fed with the yen

and I think it's a much bigger story than people realize. There's 0% chance that Kevin Warsh is raising rates. I don't care. If you can get that on prediction markets, just take the know. it's not happening. That's not why he's there and he can't for all the reasons that you just said. But I find this really interesting and it's something that, you know, once again, you sort of alluded to in our most recent conversation in New York. We have this idea that, you know, the Fed has sort of been neutered, right? And we're in this fiscal dominance situation, right? And obviously we have Lin Alden out there telling everybody that nothing stops this train.

And I think we all agree. I think the real story now is that maybe the, the government itself has been sort of neutered, and we have this AI-CAP-X dominance that you've sort of alluded to, right? I mean, it seems like the incremental, you know, dollar of economic growth now is not really relevant to the government monetary regime. It's just where it goes in big tech. So everything that you just said, and again, I even referenced Lynn in the paper, because nothing stops this train is, I mean, it's critical. On the intelligence abundance piece, I referenced two things. One was actually in both cases.

I referenced Natalie Brunel because her book and the whole thing about monetary debasement, AI is a printing debasement. And it's forcing the government to make a decision. And I think if we've learned one thing from, let's just take Besson and Trump, but we'll throw a wash into it based on what he said in his testimony to Congress, the only solution that they've come up with with this problem of the deficit at the level it is, When you say run it hot, you are basically betting on productivity and you're betting on AI. Now, we need to do this for military reasons as well.

But if you're going to basically start a war in Iran that is never ending where the deficit is going to increase because you're increasing defense. And at the same time, you have to run it hot on the AI side and you're collecting tax receipts. And now the Fed independence is being questioned because. because with the fiscal side so big, how can he actually raise rates at the same time that Iran is the war is not ending? So this is why at the end, I believe in markets. So I can say as many things as I want here. Bitcoin has not rallied the same way Micron did not rally last year for a period of time. When Micron finally broke above the 110 area for me, that was a clearing point for me that now it's time to be long.

I've been talking about silver for a long time because silver is not only positive from the gold perspective. It is massively positive from the rare earth slash mineral perspective because it's a huge part of solar. It's a huge part of drones. It's a huge part of data centers, meaning it's needed for them to work. You don't need a lot of it, but you need it in every single thing. So when you go through all this, Scott, and you take about what you said for people, we're watching a train wreck of epic proportions of spending and the solution. solution we have is to let AI take care of it down the road, which means that Bitcoin and gold and silver, when you see them all break out as a group, that's the moment. And I think we're

close to it. Let's see when Bitcoin gets above the 200-day moving average. If that was the moment that Micron was last year, I think it will be. Daily, right? But I'm the popped up the chart as we're talking, because I talk about this all the time. I love your chart. Here's the, you know, Bitcoin, this is the Coinbase dollar on the weekly. It's sitting on the 200, 200 week. Moving average right now, it's been testing it effectively for the last two months. And the only time we ever spent meaningful time below it in the history of Bitcoin was after FTCS. And that was still only nine months and was still the bottom. Right. And you pair this with, I don't know what your favorite technical indicators are, but the fourth time ever it's been

oversold on RSI on the weekly. There's bullish divergence, which only happened during FTCs. and sentiments in the dumpster. Yep. Right? And so that, that to me says exactly what you're saying about Micron. Give it six months, right? And when we bottomed, when we bottomed in, was it February, that we did the first 60,000-ish test, I said, yeah, we're going to do probably,

I don't know anything, but we're going to probably be really boring for the next nine months, and people are going to capitulate based on time instead of price. Yeah. And I think that's hardly what we're saying. You just, they get bored. They see money being made elsewhere, and they move on and think it's dead. But these are the signals of a incoming bull market in my mind. So there's two more parts.

One is if people go look up Charlie Munger and what he said about the 200-week-moving average, his exact quote was, if you just go through life buying really good companies when they hit the 200-week-moving average, you're going to make a lot of money. And his point was that all securities go through these periods where they need to normalize back to a rate. That was the same thing I said with the AI trade. You can't stretch that far away. In 50 days, the index that I put together, which is 100 names, was up 50% in 50 days.

That can't last. Like, do the compounding. Like, the earnings don't grow that fast. So, of course, it needs to correct and go back. And then eventually it got to where the rolling 50-day rate of change was minus 10%. So the first thing is, Charlie Munger said famously, 200-week moving average, just buy good companies. And I view Bitcoin as a good innovation.

The second thing is I'm an Elliott wave person. My whole theme on Bitcoin is that we're entering the third wave, the biggest wave that should happen. Now, for me, I match up the sociology with it. So you mentioned something. The sentiment is bearish. Okay, yeah, that's the crypto sentiment. I wrote a paper last year called the silent IPO. One of my beliefs in looking back on this is the fact that if you would have said,

you and I grew up in the markets, there's a buy the room or sell. the fact event that occurs in everything. If you would have said to everyone three years ago, here's what's going to happen over the next three years. Number one, we're finally going to get an ETF done for Bitcoin and we're going to have ETFs for Ethereum, for Solana, a whole bunch of things. Number two, the U.S. government is going to accept crypto. They're going to be the leaders in the regulation. They are going to promote this thing. And the president of the United States is going to go speak in a Bitcoin event. Okay, all of that happens. To me, that should have been a, by the rumor, sell the fact event.

But Bitcoin was able to continue to move higher. And actually, even after he released a meme coin and did this whole garbage, it still found a way to go up to 126. And now it's gone through a correction. If you just look at this, that the last two years has been the sell the fact scenario. I believe that the third wave is about the fact that the Tradfai sentiment has actually actually gradually improved. They're accepting of it much more than they were before, but they're not buying it. So eventually you will get to the point that Michael Saylor said,

which is when the third wave should happen, which is why the AI agents matter so much and why I say it's the purest AI trade, which is Michael Saylor's quote, which I use time and time again, you don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you. You jump on when you need to buy something. Momentum is literally the thing that drives investors to buy anything like tulips, like anything. They haven't bought Bitcoin because they haven't needed to because they've been able to buy the Mag 7. They've been able to buy the AI trade. At some point here, none of that stuff works. Bitcoin becomes the fastest horse in the race.

And I think that'll happen by the time we get to 2030-ish, which means this is the beginning of a long bull run that starts. I mean, you know, it's the greatest meme of all time. You can interchange the numbers, right? I was just going to keep on you're here. But I've constantly said that for any asset, but very, I think, specifically to Bitcoin just because of the mechanics and who the audience is, there's no better marketing than higher prices.

Right. And so when price starts to go up, all the things that you're talking about that we're talking about and pounding the pavement on here in the bear market where we sound like unapologetic bowls that should be, you know, capitulating, all those things are going to become the obvious narratives

that everybody points to it and said, Oh, we knew it. We knew it all along. We knew AI agents were going to be there. We knew that the ETFs were going to matter. And we knew that we'd get a strategic Bitcoin, whatever all these things are. Right. And I would actually like to further that. We're at a point right now where bad news is not impacting the market because there's no sellers left, which to me is a great bottoming signal. You can talk about the fact that good news isn't helping, but that will be solved by prices going up. But you know, you have a strategy selling Bitcoin every week. Like that was the worst case possible scenario for the fudding bears that you could possibly have that he would be

a quote unquote fourseller, which is not the case. A cold card hack. BIP 110. These are the kind of things that, yes, they're echo chamber narratives within crypto, but they're the kind of things that in the past could have absolutely rocked price or sent us down into the low 50s or 40s or something like that. And price is just sitting here. Yeah. We also have the clarity. Good when prices for nothing. Yeah, and the Clarity Act fell to less than 20% before the end of this year. So all of those events occurred while it rallied from 59 to where it is and literally just sitting there. So I talked about that this week. And I agree with you. When bad news isn't bad news in price, that's usually a good sign. The only thing we need now is it to respond positively to bad news

in a way that drives more people in. And again, I hate to say it because I would never trade it, But I look at Dogecoin as kind of the energy of retail, feeling that there's a good story there. We just destroyed memory stocks. We just destroyed all of the AI trade. And people have this memory. In fact, my first, everyone has their own momentum side to them. I'm 59 years old. And I can remember asking my mother to get me swayed pumas when I was in grammar school because that was the cool shoe to have.

That was my first momentum like mindset of. going through. Everyone has one. And that's why I keep saying 200-day moving average, after we've held the 200-week moving average, all of the things that we've talked about that are positive for this with the AI agents. Those narratives will be in place a year for now. I feel very confident. It's so interesting because people always ask, what's going to be the next catalyst? You know, like I have Mike McGlone on every single week from Bloomberg. He's like the most apologetic bear in the world. And when we met, he was a bull. You know, but he says, like, you know, you got Trump. You got the ETF. You got all the things. And price is down.

right? But we never know what the catalyst is going to be. And interestingly, you sort of pointed maybe we just need an event. I mean, Silicon Valley Bank, which people didn't know was coming and none of that, people forget that that sort of sparked the last bull run. I mean, Bitcoin jumped from like 19 to 25, I don't know, 17 to 24, whatever it was, that weekend, which was sort of the unexpected. And that was when the bottom was formed. You know, so there could be any one of the, it could be the yen, or it could be any of these things, one little event that, like you said, you get a negative news and Bitcoin reacts positively because that's what Bitcoin is built for. That could be the catalyst for this entire next third wave.

Well, why was gold ups? I mean, gold had its best week. I mean, it's fourth one of the only four weeks in the last 17 years that it was up 7% in a week. And if you ask a bunch of people why that happened, oh, central banks are buying, blah, blah, blah. We don't know what the catalyst will be, but I know that price knows the story before we all do. And so when the price of something is moving, I never fade the market. I assume the market knows information. I don't know. Anything can be going on behind the scenes.

You could have central banks around the globe buying. We've had news items that have come out from Korea, from Japan, from Russia. All of these things, they could be accumulating it right now. We have no idea what's going on. But when gold is breaking higher, that usually means there's an SVB type thing that happen. And I don't think the yen pressure is going away unless the U.S. is dovish. And right now, it might be as simple as we have a 50% chance of the Fed raising rates in September, despite payroll numbers. I posted on X.

I can't believe how much people don't realize the weakness in the labor market. And again, I'm a contextual guy, meaning earnings are growing in the S&P at 30% this year. and we've created no jobs over the last year. That has never happened before. We are not hiring people. Everyone was wondering if there'd be some kind of job apocalypse. Well, maybe the apocalypse is the fact that we're not hiring anyone, but we also didn't have agents, which has just come here.

I'm going to say time and time again, the reason you want to watch Ethereum, the reason you want to watch Salana, the reason you want to watch Suey as Bitcoin Maxis is because when those are going, the ecosystem is, benefiting. That is the catalyst I'm telling you. Bitcoin will be a benefit with it. So if you subscribe to my, it's lower beta, when Bitcoin is leading the way up and the all coins or any of the

infrastructure stuff is not benefiting, let's learn a lesson. That is not when the true bull market is. You actually need the ecosystem to be going up as well. And I think the ecosystem is going to lead. I could not agree more. And that was the missing thing from the previous four-year cycle. is that all coins didn't benefit from what was happening. I agree with you 100%. Even if you're a Bitcoiner and you don't believe in any of those things, that doesn't mean they're not a valid symbol. A signal.

Excuse me. Anything else I missed? I know I kept you way over when we were scheduled. I don't know. If you think of anything, you let me know. But I have anything. I have exciting news stories like, you know, Trump wing, called capital gains tax cuts.

as midterm boost. I love that they just go ahead and gratuitously just call it the midterm boost now that's not happening, which I just find very funny. And this was the other big one today. CFTC orders CalShi to continue offering prediction markets in New York after state lawsuit. I was going to make a quip when you said that the, you know, when price is going up, the market usually knows something that you don't know. Well, in prediction markets, somebody probably actually does something, know something you don't know. But I found it interesting that, you know, the federal government here with the CFTC actually invoking emergency powers

and forcing Kalshi to keep the lights on in New York when they're being told not to. I mean, there's a tough position actually for the prediction market's companies. You've got one regulator telling you to stop and one regulator telling you to keep going. Who do you listen to? Well, this would theoretically be the importance

of the Clarity Act. But I think there's one more thing that maybe we haven't talked about that you brought up, but I just want to emphasize because when I talked about the signals that are out there, if you go through all of the events that have occurred with the Morgan Stanley's, the Goldman Sachs, the JP Morgan's embracing Bitcoin at this point, like that's what's been happening over the last three months. They all realize they have to be involved in this. They're all betting that this is going to be a part, that they're outspoken, that they want the Clarity Act to go through. I spent a day at the New York Stock Exchange. tokenization is happening.

People need to realize it is happening and it is going through. So for all the worries over clarity, I think this is a weird phenomenon that is different than the capital markets. In the capital markets, the Tradfai world, price tends to lead before retail gets involved because we don't know what the catalyst is. In the crypto world, we don't have that kind of sponsorship, meaning there's really no big dollars to go. into this to lead the market higher because the people that own the money in the world, they don't believe in crypto. So it's a weird dynamic that you actually need this quote unquote catalyst, but all of the things who we're talking are going to be the stories a year from now. That is the one thing is very obvious. When I go meet with people, I don't care what it is.

An NFT person who I got become very friendly with who got involved with the business, the really smart business people that made a lot of money in Tradfai running companies, they are buying businesses with inside crypto at dirt bottom prices because they know it's going to be a part of the future. I see all of these signs. They all line up to me. Everyone just needs to wow down and just realize that a year from now, you will look back and you will be like, wow, there wasn't really this one catalyst. It was just a bunch of catalysts that were happening. and AI agents transacting more is a huge, huge tailwind that is going to lead to the growth. And that's what it's going to look like. So hopefully along the way, Scott, we talk about this.

And it's not just tokenization. It's not just NFTs. It's not just the ecosystem. It's also Bitcoin. Yeah. I mean, it's the best it's ever been except for price. Yep. That's great.

The reality of it, right? I mean, I keep saying that, but I think it's so obvious. Jordi, thank you so much. That was one of my favorite conversations. You know, I'm glad we got a chance to do it and to dig in for 45 minutes there because sometimes he's only ended up being very brief conversations during the week and we don't really get to dive in so deeply. It was a great day to have very little news so that we actually have important conversations.

So thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thanks, Scott. All right, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow. Nine am Eastern Standard Time. Thanks. Bye-bye.