The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Just Hit The 2022 Bottom Signal At $62K – 10M Underwater

Episode Date: June 11, 2026

Bitcoin just triggered the signal that has marked every previous bear market bottom — half of all circulating BTC supply (roughly 10.5 million coins) is now trading at a loss per Glassnode/K33 Research, the first time this has happened since the late 2022 cycle low. But realized losses over the last 30 days sit at just 187,000 BTC versus 1.2 million after the FTX collapse, meaning capitulation hasn't actually hit yet. Meanwhile, Japan just delivered the biggest bullish policy shift of 2026 — reclassifying crypto as financial products, slashing the tax rate from 55% to 20%, and opening the door to spot crypto ETFs. Add Wall Street dumping $10.8 billion of tech stocks last week (largest tech outflow ever recorded), SoftBank trying to borrow $6 billion against its OpenAI stake just to keep funding OpenAI, Warren's Hail Mary to delay tomorrow's $75B SpaceX IPO, and the historical reality that the 10 biggest IPOs in history dropped 35% in their first six months — and today's setup may be the cleanest historic bottom signal we've seen in three years. We break down whether the supply-in-loss signal actually holds, why capitulation hasn't fully hit yet, what Japan's bombshell means for the bull case, and which catalysts could trigger the real cycle bottom before $50K comes into play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Bitcoin bottom signal from 2022 is flashing with Bitcoin trading around $62,000. And that is that more than 50% of all Bitcoin purchased is now at a loss. Is it a bottom signal? I have no idea. And there's probably more interesting things to talk about with my amazing guest today. Sandy Call from Franklin Templeton. We're going to dig into that more right now. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? Happy Thursday. I hope that you're all having a wonderful day today. as I always am. As you can see, we are in low orbit celebrating the IPO of SpaceX tomorrow. I'm actually up here getting a firsthand look at the

new AI data centers. And that wasn't supposed to be up there when I did my intro, but we forgot. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Sandy right now. Good morning. How are you? Good morning. Scott. How are you doing? I'm great. I'm in space. Great. Perfect.

You should come join me in space sometime. It's really nice. There's actually a hot tub back there that you can't see. It's out of the frame, there's a hot tub in our spaceship. We love that. Yeah, everybody loves that. So listen, let's dive in first, just get the market out of the way. You know, Bitcoin sell-off leaves half of supply trading at a loss.

This specific metric, I don't think, is that meaningful. But I do think we're having a lot of things line up right now. People capitulating, you know, conversations around Bitcoin being dead, micro-strategy is going to blow up, all the things that I like to see when I'm buying Bitcoin, to be quite honest. Yep, I'm right there with you. You know, you always got to wait for the most bearish sentiment to expect the bottom and the most bullish sentiment when you expect to top. So it's looking like we're getting closer. When you're taking a look at this, I mean, does it impact anything that you're doing or building at all? And I guess actually, since you're on the institutional side, obviously you're running everything over at Franklin Templeton, do you see concerns about this when you're having conversations? No, actually just the opposite. I mean, I think that we feel like this is a great opportunity for us. It gives us a little breathing room to build out our capabilities further. It's giving us an opportunity to pick up great investing talent, which is something that we're building out at Franklin Templeton. We're building our crypto investing capabilities into a multi-strategy, multi-manager platform. So this is giving us great opportunities to pick up talent. And I think that it's giving us the opportunity to

really educate institutions because now, you know, institutions hate coming into bull markets. They like when things have kind of lost some of their shine. That makes them feel like they get better entry points. It gives them the confidence that they can put on long-term positions. So we're actually getting more and more incoming interest to be able to educate people, help them understand why these investments fit in their portfolio and where they fit. It's so interesting because every single time I have a conversation with someone who's actually on the front line of institutional adoption like you, Matt Hogan recently, even Hunter Horsley from Bitwise, they say the exact same thing. I don't think we've ever seen such a massive disconnect because we didn't have the level of institutional involvement in past cycles, but this level of disconnect between what I guess the smart money and institutions are thinking at this price point and what retail is thinking at this price point. It's absolutely, it's astounding.

Yeah, I think that's very common, though, if you look at, I mean, I spent my early years in commodity markets, and that was always the case, right? There's always a huge divergence between speculative and professional interest before you really see market turns. And that happens, as I said, both on the bull side and on the bear side. Yeah, so I want to zoom in more on exactly what you're doing. You kind of alluded to one of these, I guess, deal before. So I want to talk about it because it seems like you're doing a lot more now in this space.

And as you said, sort of acquiring interest as this goes, scooping up things in the air market. Franklin Templeton agrees to acquire liquid strategies from coin fund spinoff launches, Franklin Crypto. So I love Christopher Perkins and Sethkins, all those guys over there. So this was really exciting news. But there's a major expansion of what Franklin Templeton does, right? So can you talk me through this? Sure, absolutely. Look, at our core, what Franklin Templeton is, is an active investment manager, right?

We really believe in our expertise at analyzing investment opportunities, finding those that are going to outperform over time, and really delivering those returns to our clients. And to us, this is the biggest growth area that exists right now in all markets outside of AI. And the intersection of AI and blockchain is coming on so quickly with the growing adoption of AI agents that we think every institution in the world is going to want to have exposure to blockchain-based business models. And that requires investing in the tokens. And I think there's a growing understanding, right, that if I want to invest in a company, I invest in the equity. If I want to invest in a protocol or a network, I need to invest in the token.

And so I think that that is finally clicking for the big institutional investors. And we have seen this pattern many times in the past when institutions want to move money into marketplaces. They look for trusted names. They look for a manager who's going to be able to deliver a variety of investing techniques and styles. And they look to do this in a way where they look for a manager. they can deploy big tickets, right? I don't think anyone understands what it looks like. In the hedge fund

industry, in 2002, the entire assets under management in the hedge fund industry was 800 million. By the end of 2005, three years, Scott, later, it was over, oh, it was nearly three trillion in assets. I know that. So it is when institutions come in, they come in in a big way. And I think we are really coming up to the starting line on those types of flows. And what we need in our house here at Franklin Templeton is the undisputed talent that is going to be the preferred source of people having those funds managed. Also counter to what retail sentiment is, because if you read anything on crypto Twitter, I guess we call it X now, at some point that changed. But if you read anything there, all coins can never come back. It's over. Nothing.

is going to ever go up, maybe hyperliquid, I guess, or stellar on a random Tuesday can go up, but nobody believes in the thesis that you just presented. I hope they don't believe until I get positioned. That makes sense, but why do you think we have that disconnect? And I guess when, you know, working with coin fund, how do you decide what to invest in, what kind of protocols are you actually looking at and what things are just entirely avoidable? I think the sentiment is it, yes, select all coins probably will go up if we're being honest, but it might be a very select few.

Yeah. But look, nonetheless, right? We have already at Franklin Templeton with our digital asset investing team been doing deep fundamental analysis of these coins looking at where, how does the business model support revenue growth? How does that revenue growth get translated to the underlying investor via the token? And then which of these tokens do we? believe has the best business proposition that's going to be most successful over time.

And one of the reasons we were attracted to Chris and Seth and the 250 digital team coming out of coin fund is that they have a very similar deep analysis-based approach. And so we thought there was a lot of synergies there. I think we have great confidence that there will be amazing investment opportunities here. I mean, you really have the two intersections of the two biggest trends happening in the world right now. As I said, the AI agents, but also you're seeing increasingly the global financial market infrastructure be recreated on these new rails. And all of the protocols and all of the providers that are going to be providing this new infrastructure to trade every security in the world, to move every

money movement in the world, just think of the volumes that are going to go through that system. It's being built on these protocols. And therefore, they are going to be highly successful investments over time. We have 100% faith in this. I think the fear is that that value will somehow accrue to the institutions and not to the individuals. Maybe it'll be private blockchains, maybe it'll be a few of the ones that people missed. You still think that that's an opportunity for the layer ones that are relatively decentralized and publicly available that everybody loves. 100%, Scott. We are all, we are big believers in public blockchain at Franklin Templeton. We have deployed our internal management systems across 12 different public blockchains we keep records on.

We absolutely believe that this infrastructure that is going to be the foundation of the future world financial markets is accessible to everyone. That's one of the real appeals to us. Sentiment changes. Sentiment moves fast and sentiment gets discouraged. And this is why I think retail feels so washed out right now. is that I think there was a lot of optimism that the bull market was going to keep going. It turned on people. They lost money.

But believe me, as they start to understand how the businesses in this space are developing, and they see the markets begin to recover, I have full confidence that retail will be able to come back into these markets and really be a participant in gaining profits, just like they were able to after the dot-com crash, right? Yeah, exactly. You just have to be more selective this time. It's the trademark of a maturing market. I don't think that's necessarily bad thing. I do miss a days, but you could just throw a dart,

and your thing would go up 10x for no good reason. That was fun. Yes, I can't. I can't throw darts. Sorry. You are not allowed to throw darts, right? And another dart you definitely didn't throw. Franklin Templeton and Moonpay partner to expand institutional access to tokenize

money market funds. So I love those guys over at Moon Pay as well, had them on many, many times. Talk us through this one. Yeah, look, Moot Pay, I think, is building a super fascinating business. They really have a vision about how the world is going to operate. And I think of them as really creating the access layer that is going to allow us to manage all of the liquidity that is occurring in this space. We've published a big paper called the universal liquidity layer talking about how there's going to be this interoperability. between stable coins, tokenized deposit,

central bank digital currencies, and tokenized money market funds. And if you look at what's happening, we're really in a risk-off period. People have moved crypto profits or losses into stable coins, and they want yield on those stable coins. And a way to get yield on those stable coins is to move them into a tokenized money market fund.

And Franklin Templeton's tokenized money market fund is unique in that we are the only digitally native. money market fund. We pay yield every single calendar day of the year right into your wallet, and we calculate intraday yield. So if you even only own the money market fund for a portion of the day, you still get yield. That makes it a very unique product, particularly for this point in time. There is a guaranteed yield on the product. And so we're seeing a lot of movement from stable coins into our tokenized money market fund, and we really think that that that highway of movement is going to be accelerated through this partnership with Moon Pay.

And we think that they have a very strong vision about how on top of this liquidity layer, we're going to be able to build more and more new types of investment products. Okay. So one of the things I love about talking with you is you always have a broader vision, obviously, and you're sort of driving the, I guess, spaceship toward a very specific place. So we're closer to the conversations you and I have had about what the future looks like than ever, right? And people can go back and listen to those conversations throughout the years. But you've just described one way that people can earn yield or benefit from tokenization. But what does it look like when AI agents are transacting, when everything is in one wallet,

when you're not just earning yield on your money market fund, but you can then go in and out of equities in a tokenized manner? and crypto and everything in one place. I mean, what's the grand vision here now that you're working towards? Yeah. So we believe that the entire interface to your future financial life is going to be your wallet, right? That today, when I think about it, I have a checking account, maybe multiple checking accounts at different banks. I have different savings accounts.

I have different brokerage accounts. I have health care accounts. I have insurance accounts, right? I have accounts everywhere. So putting together my own financial picture, is difficult. Actually, optimizing the use of all my assets is almost impossible because they're so disaggregated. But when they all move into my wallet and my wallet becomes my interface to the world, all of those assets become interoperable. Not only are they aggregated and can I see my total

wealth picture, I'm going to be able to really look at every single holding in that wallet and think about, am I optimizing it? Can I lend this and get more? more fees for it? Can I put it into a liquidity pool? Can I stake this asset? There's going to be multiple options that I can do for every single asset in my portfolio and my operating cash, my savings and my investments are all going to be commingled. So I can have new goals. I can say maximize my buying power, which form of money should I use to pay for this transaction? I can say save for my college or my college retire or my retirement and I can look at every asset in my portfolio and think about how to optimize it to get as much yield as possible. So this whole concept

of what we manage and how we manage it is on the verge of a major evolution. And we are starting to see the first phases of that shift happen. And we're going to see from the DTC and New York Stock exchange and NASDAQ this year tokenization of regular equities and bonds. And that's going to be huge, even though it's a digital twin model and not the ideal digitally native model, it is going to force everyone that deals with equities and bonds in the professional financial markets to put a wallet system in. And having that wallet is going to open up so many possibilities and so much opportunity for improvement. Yeah.

The DTCC part is so interesting. I had a conversation. I think it's coming out this week, actually, with Carlos from Securitize. And he sort of poohed their model. He said, you know, it's just they're using our technology as the plumbing, but it doesn't really change much for everybody else in the world, right? The tokenization, if it's just DTCC settlement, that's not really that inspiring for all of us, which is not a way I'd thought about it.

It's sort of two versions of how. this proceeds. And you're kind of talking about the other one, right? Because it doesn't help. I mean, it's not in your wallet if the DCC is just using blockchain to move things around themselves internally. It's not, but I still need to build a wallet, right? If I'm going to buy the tokenized stock from the DTCC, even though I think Carlos is correct and it doesn't really change much about the current world, it still allows me to have a wallet. And I can tell you from all the incomings that we're getting at Franklin Templeton, every major. Every major. or financial institution is now talking about their wallet strategy. And that to me is the critical

outcome of what the DTCC is doing. Look, they're doing this to preserve their business and preserve their market. That's fine. I still think it's a bridge to the world that's coming, but it's an important bridge, and it's one that's going to accelerate the adoption, I think, of the entire infrastructure on which we're going to be able to have much more enhanced services. Yeah, so then is it, how does that work when everybody has their own wallet plan? Do we have wallet battles? Is that the next frontier? You can link all these wallets.

We link wallets all the time through our system. We can subcustody or we can link to someone's self-custody wallet or we can link to a third-party custodian. Linking wallets is perfectly possible. It's going to, it's an important first step and it's going to really make a difference. So when everything is tokenized, is it going to? to be an AI agent that's advising on how we manage that portfolio. We've talked about the AI agents transacting, but still what you described is pretty complicated for the average person. You can't ask your average person who now has a wallet to go in and say, do I want to earn

yield through staking or do I want to put it in some sort of vault? And is it going to be liquid tomorrow and I need to pay my rent? So I think it's still very complex, even once you get it into one ecosystem. 100%. But I think that what will happen is I will set my goals with my human advice. And then the human advisor will defer the day-to-day management of the portfolio to get me to those goals to the AI agents that can keep up with that and run the algorithms. So still actively managed by a human, but that human then has all the AI tools to make sure that's whatever exactly what we request. Some people's money, Scott. People don't want their money running on autopilot, right? I totally agree with that for 98% of the population. I think there's people.

who are crazy and think we can do a good job. I think those people are the best in the world, but most people do not have that kind of confidence. So I have to ask you, we've had this narrative that the SpaceX IPO and all of the IPOs that are coming, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are on the horizon, are sucking liquidity out of crypto and everything else. I think I actually saw a story that last week, which I didn't realize was the largest tech sell-off. I've got it actually here, which I hadn't really been paying attention to, but here we go. You know, investors dumped 10.8 billion worth of tech stocks last week, the largest outflows ever recorded. Personally, I don't think those are outflows. I think those are positioning for the Super Bowl of events here in markets.

But, I mean, what do you think of all these IPOs, where the liquidity is going to come from and what that might mean for markets? Yeah, look, I think that these IPOs are exciting. I think that they're really, you know, potentially, though, events you have to watch as does this start to signal that, the trend is very mature, right? You know, as we say, you know, bull markets always feel the most bullish at their top, bare markets always feel the most bearish at their bottom. So, you know, I think this is going to be a very successful period. I think that it probably has pulled liquidity from other places, including crypto. But, you know, IPOs are exciting events as they occur.

A lot of IPOs disappoint, right? And so we have to really watch not just what happens on the day they, but what happens in the few weeks after. And I think that will tell a lot of story. I don't think anyone would be surprised if this goes up massively on day one because so much money is on the sidelines, but then as people unlock, you know, I have a lot of friends who are, you know,

second, I guess, you know, secondary market investors in SpaceX, and I think most of them unlock their first shares in maybe July. Yeah. You know, I don't think a lot of people have the immediate liquidity to sell shares already tomorrow. So you would imagine that the hype, could at least be, as you said, temporarily positive. Yeah, for sure.

I mean, what do you make of this bear market in general? I mean, you kind of alluded to the fact earlier that everyone thought it was going to continue to go up, right? You know, 126K was an amazing high for Bitcoin, but very muted versus previous cycles, if you believe in the cycle. I then think that the downside should also be muted personally, and that could mean that we're near a bottom. I don't see why we need to go down 90%, like many people,

believe, but I mean, how do you just kind of view the cycle in this market right now? Well, this was something that we, I think we had even talked about this, wow, probably three years ago. But you cannot underestimate the impact of what the ETFs have done to the market patterns, right? When a market is going up, money comes into ETFs on a regular basis, and then the ETF issuers have to buy to make sure that they have the supply to back the demand for the ETF. So in bull markets, ETFs tend to be forces that continue and accelerate the bull market.

But when sentiment turns negative, that whole dynamic reverses. And so when people share itself, the ETF shares, these issuers do not want to hold inventory, and therefore they have to sell the underlying. And so, you know, one of the things that I've been watching is that we have been seeing record outflows from some of the, ETFs. And I think that is really the signal to watch. When that slows down, when everything looks like it's stabilizing on the ETF size, that's going to take away a lot of selling pressure in the market.

And then I think you can start to really wait for the bottom to be confirmed. But people forget, we go through these cycles all the time. Markets don't go in just one direction. So it's interesting to me how negative people have become. When certain... we have seen this kind of volatility and these kinds of patterns many times over in crypto at this point. I don't have all the data in front of me, but I did kind of a deep dive, I think, two days ago on those ETF flows. And it was really interesting because it's being reported that, you know, they've round-tripped back to Trump's election. That was a big headline, you know, that the total value was effectively the same. But that's in dollar value in a market that's down 50%. And when you

looked at how many coins actually had moved, which I think is a more reliable metric. It was like $1.37 million to $1.27 million. It was a 7% drawdown or something. I think flows on the account, even this huge 13-day negative period is only a 7% reduction in outflows. And then when you dug in even further, it was basically hedge funds and brokerage platforms that sold and institutions, so retail, and institutions and RIAs were only down like 4%. and institutions were up.

So you have to also consider how you report or think about these numbers because I don't think dollar value on a market that's down 50% is really the correct metric. Maybe I'm wrong, but that was my time. No, I think you're right. And that's the pattern we talked about at the top, right? Is that the institutions are using this sharp pullback to put on positions. And those are strong hands.

This is a concept that I think we need to start to really talk about more in crypto, is who holds the points, right? And institutions are strong hands. Most institutions buy positions and hold them for years, not just months, right? So I think that this is a very healthy rotation of ownership in the marketplace, and it should put into place a very solid foundation. So who do you think has been selling? Obviously, the narrative has been that the big whales finally,

who were diamond-handed forever since 2010, finally said, you know what, I've got enough billions now. So do you think we're seeing a transfer of sort of who the floor buyer is, right? Is it now like the OG whales have sold to the institutions who are the new diamond hands? I think that there's some of that going on for sure. I think it's also, you mentioned it, the hedge funds, right? Hedge funds make money when markets go up. Hedge funds make money when markets go down.

Hedge funds can short an asset just as easily as they can buy an asset, right? And so don't underestimate that this is basically just trading activity. Hedge funds have been huge holders because of the basis trade, right? And so them unwinding some of those positions could put a lot of pressure on the market, which we've seen. So I think there's trading pressure from the hedge funds. There's capitulation pressure from some of the OGs. There's discouraged sentiment from retail. And all of that is playing into very patient institutions.

capital that will just continue to nibble and buy at the market, even as it goes down. So we only got a couple of minutes left. Is there anything that you're dying to talk about that I missed that you're excited about that's coming that I wouldn't have flagged? I'm very excited about the amount of focus that we're getting on tokenization now. I think that there is a growing sentiment from nearly every regulator and every institution in the world that we are going to be using tokens as the wrapper of the future and that that means that we need wallets and that means we need to build on the crypto infrastructure and to me that is so positive right that is really what I saw first back in 2017 when I published my first report on tokenization

you know overtaking equities and bonds over time and it's so exciting to me Scott that we are here We are really at the point now where the idea has taken hold and everyone is shifting to the plans on how to make it happen. And that is such a critical milestone. I mean, really, we have not been at this point as an industry since the early 1970s. So over 50 years since we've been at such a similar point of transformation. Okay, so how fast does this happen? I think it happens a lot faster than people anticipate. I think within three years, you're going to see tokenization really starting to eat into traditional financial products.

It may take us 10 years to actually be the majority of financial products, but that would be half as quickly as it took ETFs to overtake mutual funds, right? So it took 20 years for ETFs to overtake mutual funds. I think it will take 10 or less for tokens to overtake the current financial wrappers. It's crazy to think about. This is just how incredibly fast is happening. But I agree. I think it's going to be just the lightning speed because, I mean,

and I think adding AI to it is just, you know, extra flames. Crazy. Run logs on the fire. It's going to be exciting. Yeah. I'm glad we have you building it. Well, thank you so much, Sandy. I know you got to run.

I deeply appreciate you taking the time. I guess we can all, like, dial in for the SpaceX IPO Super Bowl. It should be fun. Thank you so much, Scott. It'll be a good time. But everybody, please give Sandy a follow. And we'll be back, obviously, the Daily Wolf at noon and tomorrow for my show.

Thank you, Sandy. Thank you. Thanks, everybody. Bye-bye.