The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Near Record Levels - Will The Crypto Rally Go Parabolic? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: August 12, 2025

Crypto is surging into CPI week – Bitcoin’s above $122K and Ether is up 21% to $4,300 on bullish macro sentiment, ETF inflows, and Trump’s 401(k) crypto push. BitMine Immersion now holds 1.15M ETH worth $5B, the largest corporate ETH treasury ever. On Macro Monday, Dave Weisberger, James Lavish, and Mike McGlone join me to discuss if this rally can survive Tuesday’s inflation print. Dave Weisberger: https://x.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://x.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE WOLF PACK - FREE Telegram group where I share daily updates on everything I'm watching and chat directly with all of you. 👉https://t.me/WolfOfAllStreet_bot ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin came within $1,000 of its all-time high nearing record levels while Ethereum made its highest close since I believe 2021, also pushing towards its own new all-time high. Crypto markets seem to be heating up. Once again, is it time for them to go parabolic? We're going to discuss that and everything in the macro, of course, today for Macro Monday with Mike, Dave, and James. Let's go. Good morning and welcome to another edition of Macro Monday.

Before we get started, I haven't said it a long time, but subscribe, hit the like button, do all the things that you need to do on YouTube to make the algorithm. Love us. Go ahead and bring on James, Dave, and Mike right now. good morning gentlemen how are we all good mike do we trust a sunday pump you know uh we got that move up uh i'm gonna let you do the morning meeting but man i'm always uh my spidey sense is go off what it happens on sunday right to get up to thousand bucks from the all time high and then of course markets start opening across the world and down that's how it goes right back to where it started

so mike what's happening with the morning meeting what do we got yeah It'd be nice to see risk assets still going up, but just starting with Anna Wong, accepts the, basically a synops to expect CPI and PPI'd come a little hot. CPI is expecting three-tenths, fastest pace since January. Expect that to be a headline, 2.8% annualized, which is still rising. From PPI, she's a bit concerned, expects core to run three to four-tenths as a pressure part of the PCA deflator. Quite hot due to financial services.

Not good for Fed Cut prospects. Expect retail sales to be stronger 1%. Stronger autos, front running the tariffs and Amazon Prime had a pretty good Amazon Prime period. The control group, though, you expect is running 0.2 to 0.3 real. It's not really a sign of a strong economy. Ira Jersey, our chief rate strategist,

as he expects the Bull Steepwinner to continue. The rates, the options were not so great this week. They all had tails. But he still expects rates to drop below 3%. I think he meant next year. I didn't cut the exact timing of that overall. He expects that Stephen Moran's not going to make a big deal on the Fed. It's just more that tilt towards doveish leanings.

Gina's key words I caught out of her comments three to four times. She mentioned deceleration and earnings and prices. Obviously, we've actually, you know, two full years of 20% gains and broad index is waning a little bit, but concentration risk, the things she's been pointing out forever. Her quote was the tech markets actually becoming stock pickers market. She pointed out that there's about a 5,000 basis point difference between some of the top best performances in tech and the rest of the bulk of the space. and so deceleration, here's their key thing. I started out with spoken on responding to Trump's headlines about soybeans. It's a wonderful thing, and that's called superabundance,

and that word soybeans should be in the same sentence. It'd be nice if Trump can help that happen, but there's just stocks to use in soybeans in the world about 33%. The average is close to 20%. There's a massive supply on the back of the big pump and prices. This is all kind of the lessons of Jeff Booth, than that is we can bring on more, you know, it's just technology's moving so fast. So that is kind of a pipe dream.

The U.S. only exports about 40% of the soybeans now. In the past, it was 50%. We don't because there's just too much supply in the rest of the world, most notably out of Brazil to put that in context. The latest numbers are Brazil and Argentina are going to be exporting over 100, about 110 million metric times. The U.S. exports half that, and our exports have been the same for about 10 years. It's just taking off more supply and demand from China's decline.

pointed that out. Same things happened with crude oil. It's a super abundance glut on a global basis. When's the last time we heard a demand estimate revision that went up for crude oil? When's the last time we heard a demand estimate revision for a global GDP that went up? They're all heading lower and yet supply is still increasing, although we're getting to that stage where the U.S. supply might be pertained a little bit because of one key factor, lower prices. And I point out we even have a superabundance and natural gas in this country. Every single time it pops up, it goes down and starting to do that again. front contracts below three. The January contract, the one that matters was around five a few

months ago. Now it's strapping down lower for natural gas to go up. You basically need the second year in a row of global, of a cold of the normal winter last year was amidst global warming. And I pointed out that I still pointed that the one thing that the gold market loves, it loves Mr. Trump. I think that August 1st firing of the BLS leader, when he didn't like the data will go down in history, maybe akin to the Nixon. shock in August 15th, Sunday night, 1971, when Mr. Nixon took us off the gold stand, it's just the shock. So anything Mr. Trump says is great for gold.

I think it's just big, basically, it's a matter of time that gold pops to 4,000 an ounce. It's holding good support of 3,300. And I think the one key catalyst for that could be is this little back and field risk assets, i.e. the U.S. stock market. And one of the top risk assets on the planet is Bitcoin. So let me get this straight, Mike. So firing the head of one of the most demonstrably incompetent agencies in American history is akin to the event that has triggered the greatest wealth inequality and greatest financialization spur in all of history. That sounds like you have some good opinions there, Dave. I respect your opinions.

I mean, wow. I don't have words, but I do think you said something which James should talk about first, which is the bond. auctions last week. Anything hugely significant there? Because obviously you follow that one like a hawk. Yeah, I mean, the tails are never good, but we have so much supply come to the market. It's, you know, they're trying to figure out where the demand is along that curve. And that's the challenge for the, for the treasury is to meet that demand right down the middle. So when the market knows what, what's coming to the auctions, and it's usually, fine. It's the, it's some of the unexpected sizes that, that, uh, that, uh, that usually push those around those, those yields around the tail's around. It's just the, the tail for the people who are

listening who don't know this. Um, all these bonds trade when issued in the market before the auction. And so, uh, investors have a pretty good idea of where they are willing to buy, uh, what, what kind of yield that they're demanding before the auction. And when the auction comes, and that demand is lower and the yield is higher, that's a tail. That means that the auction didn't go as well as, you know, the Treasury wanted or hoped or needed. So, but it was nothing, you know, out of, really out of place. I mean, we're seeing tailing auctions quite a bit. It's, you know, when we start getting big tails in the 10 year, big tails and really big tails in a 10 year or the 30 year, that's, that's problematic.

but because quite honestly the the treasury's got to move out on the curve soon or else they're just going to continue to pile on this the tea bills and eventually you know you're going to have to move out in the curve with so much so much supply to get out of the two week four week eight week tea bill market that it's going to it's going to push those right higher which is where I think Mike and I probably differed the most on our belief of where these yields go long-term. You know, short-term, yeah, we could have a contraction of rates and these yields come in, but that would be economic reasons. Structural reasons for yields to go up is that investors are demanding yield premiums. You know, demand, and they're looking for premiums on the, on the on the curve so rate premiums and that has to do with both inflation worries and worries

that we're just going to have a deluge of bonds that come to the market and the demand won't be there so i don't see i didn't see last week as being major warning signals but it's yet again just weakness that that is that's not welcomed by the treasury so let me open a little just a little bit of global macro here. Last week, Friday, Canada unexpectedly shed 40,000 jobs, and their jobless rate is running 6.9%. Now, obviously, when I traded treasuries, we looked at Canada sometimes leading and lagging. It's always just take 10 times Canada, and that's what U.S. is. So maybe that's something we have to, the whole world's focusing on and looking at. And then you look at world bond yields, I just, here's my simple indication, 1.7% in China, 10 units, U.S. 4.26.

percent, Canada, 3.35%. We were 442. I love 442 because before the unemployment number, because it reminds me of the Ovalbill car I loved in the 70s. But that to me is my indication of what to expect for U.S. bond yields. As long as U.S. stock market and Bitcoin stays high, maybe you're okay. But one thing I want to mention 442 is since we printed that U.S. unemployment number, U.S. 10 yield has been running around 426. So it needs something to shift that. Otherwise, to me, the risks are it files things like crude oil and soybeans and copper and goes down. Yeah, I mean, look, the, we're getting, we're clearly getting a softening in the employment market. You know, the question is, can we get that landing that is soft enough that the, that the Fed is going to lower rates before we hit that spike in unemployment,

before we hit a recession. And my worry is that this Fed is operating in such a lag that they're going to miss the mark again. You know, they missed it on the way up. They're going to miss it on the way down. And if that happens, you know, all of, you know, all of what you've been talking about, Mike, the mean reversion will be forced. I mean, that stock market will contract pretty rapidly. Risk assets will contract pretty right.

Everything will correlate to one again. We'll get a sharp drawdown. you know once we get this in this spike can happen quickly we've seen it before it happens in matter of weeks the problem is the Fed is lagging in matters of months and so that's what that's what the you got to get that sense in the on the bomb market like where are we going to shake out here and now you've got the the futures the the Fed funds futures are showing I'll share this you guys can see it share screen my window So you got this, Scott?

So now we're saying, so just go back a little over a week ago. Actually, it was before this, right? It was the week before. At the end of July, you were seeing a 67% chance of a rate cut in September, right? A 3% chance in July. We know that didn't happen. but now today that is back up to almost 90% it's 88% 90% 90% chance of a rate cut in September and then another one in October and another one in you know in December is so there's

there's somewhere around two two and a half cuts that are that are implied that are expected in the curve right now. So where do we come out? And that's a big question for investors this week. And we've got both the CPI and the PPI coming out this week. We've got CPI tomorrow and we've got the PPI then on Thursday and jobless claims. And then, of course, we get our soft indicators of, you know, University of Michigan. Here's the one that Michael, Michael, Michael, Michael,

500 people, baby. 500 of them are extremely liberal. And then, you know, you've got, you've got your unemployment numbers. And this is the one that, that I expect Mike and Bloomberg to hone in on that will be less talked about, but the retail sales and the import prices. So it's, it's a pretty big week, quietly a big week in, in the economic indicators category. So we'll see.

And yet the traders are all in the Hamptons. So, you know, what will happen? The traders are all in the Hamptons. That's right. And yet it's so quiet. It's, we're in the depth of August. I mean, Europe is not even, they're not even in the office. No, no.

I'll never forget, you know, trading Italian stocks and trying to get something done. It was the year of the pound issue. And we had some really big things. things to get done. And effectively, we started moving, we started selling, started moving the market down. I am told that what I was the trigger man for on behalf of a large hedge fund caused all the trains to be flooded from people coming back from the Amalfi Coast back up to Milan. It's actually kind of funny. But because you can look it up in the summer of 92 what

happened in the Italian markets in August. It was actually rather amusing. But yeah, I mean, You know, it's like when you look at this stuff in summer months and you understand that what's going on with the Fed is effectively, you know, a political tug of war, I have a more crass way of expressing it, but I'll try to be nicer for this show between Powell and Trump. You know, I think it's interesting. The question is right now, it seems like the consensus of a lot of economists is if the Fed cut rates aggressively that the long end would go up. up you know rates would go up i personally think they're wrong but uh and and i think that when you see 90% and you see rates trending down at the same time that the the likelihood of a cut goes up kind of puts paid to that as opposed to the you know the the last time everyone has recency bias and what they think is going to happen the one thing that i do know uh as far as

summer trading goes and that's why it's actually really interesting is that ranges don't tend to get broken in the summer. I mean, it can happen, obviously, but generally when you're in a trading range, it stays there. And so people get really excited as you get toward the top of the range like we did yesterday or at the bottom of the range

like we did last week, at least in Bitcoin. You know, it matters, right? You know, Ethereum is different because it was so down for so long. It doesn't have that same sort of trading pattern. But the most interesting thing I thought from your Sunday question, Scott, was if you look at liquidations

and go back 24 hours, they're even, and they're not that large. So we had a reasonably sizable move on a side. Even short and long, long liquidations, 203 million, short 208 million. So generally when you get that kind of a rip, it's liquidation fueled. It wasn't, which is surprising, or at least not hugely. I think it's just lack of supply on the weekend and someone buying dumb. I mean, I talk about this a lot, and I'll get on my soapbox for a second, because I've just done I'm waiting for compliance approval to publish an analysis of things.

But I can tell you that I've been looking at coin routes institutional TCA and on $200,000 minimum cutoff orders, which averages out to the millions, the market impact when you use good algorithms is in the single digits of basis points for, we're talking large orders, you know, multi-million dollar orders here. yet on the weekend you see these idiots buying or selling you know whichever way the move goes and it moves the market's whole percentage points which is like 10 times the market impact that a well-done trading strategy would do now it turns out that during the week there's enough liquidity that we don't see it as bad but the simple fact and i know i use those words too often but it is so obvious that there is a lot of dumb trading in the world

of crypto. Now, sometimes people do it for a reason, right? If you're trying to trigger a liquidation cascade, which by the way, in most markets would be considered illegal, but we won't go there. Obviously, market manipulation. If you're trying to do it, then you buy really sloppy or you sell really sloppy. But I think that's all we saw this weekend. We saw some sloppy buying, people saying, okay, I got to get in now. And, you know, I guess it's okay. So let's just do that. And they just got it done. And that pushes the market. And you see that sort of thing, you know, less and less. Does that mean somebody wakes up in the morning?

It was like, oh, these dummies just said price 4,000 high. I'm taking profit. Like, is that how you explain that the, uh, gets smacked down on a Monday morning? Well, it's not about people perceive it as a smackdown, but what you're actually seeing is a reaction. I was like, wait a minute. I didn't have time to get my offers in there. Let me.

So yeah, if I could sell it 122 here, I want to sell. What's interesting, what's interesting, Dave is that the, uh, and I, I, I, I tend to agree with you, especially on Sundays like this, late nights, Sundays, you know, it just, it just doesn't seem, it seems super sloppy from a trading perspective. But then the other side, it looked, look pretty sloppy on the way down. So, you know, but it was about the same, correct me if I'm wrong, but it looked like about the same volume on the way up as it was on the way down, maybe even more volume on the way down. Yeah, that could easily be. From just looking at the move from 119 to 122 and change back to 119, it looked like the move, the, the, the, we took an elevator up and we took an elevator down, but it looks like there was at least as much volume on the way down as it wasn't the way up, which is, which is interesting. So it's the classic Bart Simpson pattern, dude.

But, but, but the funny thing about the Bart Simpson pattern in is, is. It tends to be both the reverse and whatever. It tends to be a harbinger of things to come, right? Because there just isn't that much real supply out there. There's lots of, there are traders pushing markets around. And so, you know, we had a period last week of all coins, you know, led by Ethereum going up while Bitcoin stayed the same. It happens, right?

You know, it is what it is. But I've made it, I've been very clear about this. 112 to 12 has been our range. We're now going on, I don't know, what are we, nine weeks now, I'm losing track. And it used to be 100 to 112, so. Right. So, I mean, you know, we're kind of, we're here. It's nothing I'm going to get terribly excited about one way or another.

The news keeps on coming, right? You know, the news keeps on coming. And, you know, you see some really stupid things. I laugh, but, you know, I keep saying that Trump derangement syndrome is a clinical condition. And when people look back on it on this epoch, you know, historically, they're going to wonder what the hell were people thinking. There are people out there who, because I saw hundreds of posts about stuff like this and likes and whatever. People saying, well, if Trump's family is buying Bitcoin, then, you know, obviously Bitcoin's becoming a

political issue. And it's like, it's a first level of introductory logic, basically, you know, no, matter what you think of Trump, you know, broken, you know, you can come up with every analogy you want. It doesn't mean that Bitcoin is the same thing as Trump and Melania tokens, which I saw a lot of people making, you know, false equivalence on. And it's just funny, right? You know, you see that sort of stuff. I mean, the story this weekend, everyone got up in a froth about was Bo Hines resigning. You know, I don't know that we're going to know the story there. But the person replaces that they're going to have the same views.

Best trade of all time. I was going to say, here it is, White House Crypto Advisor, Bo Hines, to return to privacy. literally the greatest trade of all time he showed up i liked it i like bow hines by the way he showed up out of absolutely nowhere nobody had ever heard of him uh got this huge position became the mouthpiece for the administration and is going to go back in 10x his income in the private sector after less than six months who wouldn't do that yeah well i mean i'm not as i said i don't know they made him famous in six months and he can go now get get a job and leave but the point is the the thought that that whoever replaces him and i guess the guy who's moving

and is just as exactly the same views is going to be a cryptoskeptic or something like that is just silly, right? You know, it's just so you get these silly narratives and in this world. I think people are searching for a narrative. It's right. People are searching for it. It's like when Mike was talking about commodities, it's so important to understand the importance of what he was saying for people if you're trading commodities.

And, you know, you can call it super abundance. You can call whatever the hell you want. I call it elasticity. The fact is. is our technology is better and it continues to improve at extracting stuff out of the ground and refining it and processing it and reclaiming it and so when prices go up you can spend a little bit to enhance supply and that keeps a lid on price and that is so important in most commodities that it is is well it is well understood except for people ignore it and so people like you know

the straits or homoes are going to get closed for a week okay whatever and the price of oil doubles. It's like, are you kidding me? It's like, you know what's going to happen. It happens every time. And Mike, you know, it nails it every single time when you see these things. The only two exceptions are one when it's government imposed. So if we end up with massive tariffs on copper externally and the need for investment in the United States, yeah, okay, copper prices are going, input prices are going to go up until supply can come online. Yeah, Okay, fine. The other is Bitcoin, which has no elasticity of supply. And so treating it like a commodity in the same sense. It has elasticity, price elasticity from holders who sell it. But it's the same as gold out of the ground and gold coming out of the ground and gold that you pull out of the ground. That's the difference. There is no elasticity to Bitcoin coming, you know, being created. There is elasticity to Bitcoin holders. And we've seen that. The unique thing about Bitcoin, as we all know, is there what's piss off day without trying.

In 2009, there was one cryptocurrency. Now there's 19 million. Okay. Sorry, you can go with that we'd like. In 2009, there was four precious metals, and now there's still four precious metals. So I'm still bullish gold. I still think gold's going to outperform Bitcoin, and Bitcoin still needs its good test. But the key thing that's different about Biscuant now is there is no excuse if it drops what it does.

only doesn't drop 50% because now it's completely, I think, one of the most systematic. And I said systematic, not systemic, risky assets I've ever seen. We see treasuries jumping onto this asset. We see a high volatility, high correlation in the stock market. I mean, the whole thing is just what you expect that we're going to have to write about from the futures. Yeah, we got a little silly too silly expensive and market jumped on and did what I always did. Yeah, I get, and I love how Larry Lopold pointed that out.

I mean, we pointed this out a decade ago, but that's the. difference now. We have become extremely financialized. The masses are involved, all buying ETFs, and they're jumping on the last big trade. We've all seen this before. The key thing about Michael Sale, which I love is the prudent thing that typically do is when you get lucky enough to make a 10x on an investment. It's not double down. And he is. He's getting people to join him. So I just look at the risk is extraordinary here. And I think most risk managers are in a planner saying, you know, if there's going to be a problem in all markets, it might start with cryptos. And I might want to be careful and have some kind of protective put there because if they go

down, it takes the system down. And one thing you have to remember right now is we are completely dependent in this space on the success of the Trump administration. The puts are there. So hold on there. Just to be clear, elevated Bitcoin and eth options, open interest signals, cautious positioning ahead of Tuesday's CPI data. I don't know that that's anything to do with Tuesday's CPI data. But Mike, to your point, whether they're right or wrong, we have one of those rare moments where there's more puts than calls on Bitcoin and Ethereum might now. It's just insurance.

The football is going to arb that out. Look, I want to respond to two things. First, the four precious metals, you gave me the opening. I feel like Sequin Barker. Oh, I don't tell you after. Hey, come on. There were four precious metals. There's now one precious metal. Gold has demonetized

platinum, palladium, and silver. Now, there's one winner. And, you know, it's like, and it's, and it's intensely obvious. So there was, it was interesting, Lynn Alden had a chat going back and forth with someone, I don't know who it was, that it started talking about the gold silver ratio this week in which I read. And the gold silver ratio went from, you know, for thousands of years, it effectively it used to be silver was easier to get. And then, so it was closer to gold. It was like three to one

or whatever. But it's 15 to 1 in the earth's crust. And it more or less is between 10 and 15 to 1 for thousands of years. It started dropping, it started going, not dropping, rising to where gold was more valuable and effectively demonetized silver, as silver's portability became less relevant because the gold was being held and people were paperizing it. And ever since then, it stayed the same. Gold demonetized silver effectively and is trading a dramatic premium to, you know, based on its monetary value. Gold platinum is even worth talking about. Platinum is 30 times rare than gold, more valued in jewelry by most women, certainly my wife enjoyed, enjoys her platinum engagement ring, which was actually the 10-year anniversary ring because we upgraded her engagement ring instead

of buying landscaping. But it was platinum with larger diamonds. That was back when I was on Wall Street. You don't sound bitter about that at all. It seems like you really- Not bitter at all. You didn't want that landscaping. You definitely wanted that platinum. That house is long sold, Scott. Don't care. You know, we've been married for 26 years since then. I mean, believe me, it's fine. You know, that was the 10-year anniversary. But my point is, is platinum, despite being 30 times rare, used to trade at dramatically more expensive than gold.

In fact, to these, this day, if you look at the way conference sponsorship goes, you got silver gold platinum, except for the fact that gold is what, double to triple the price, between like two and a half times the price of platinum these days. So you're saying that's the natural evolution. Now, as far as Bitcoin versus cryptocurrencies go, Scott and I both have a, major problem i have a major problem with that because frankly none of the other cryptocurrencies in my mind are cryptocurrencies they're crypto assets they're digital assets but they're not cryptocurrencies they're not designed for that there's no there's no scarcity etc and and yeah the xrp people yeah

and the ethereum people you call them you can call them whatever the hell you want to call them ethereum literally if there is not if it's not going to be demanded if you're not going to need Ethereum to build platforms on top of crypto, then Ethereum's price is going to be lower than it is today. It's a $500 billion asset based upon the demand that people think for the world computer, not because it's going to be a currency that people are going to trust, because Joe Lubin and his company, you know, ICOed it. That's just not going to happen. And the same thing, I would make the same statement about XRP. But look, at the end of the day, most of the 19 million Hell, outside of the top one or two hundred, there's no competition.

It's not even relevant. It's no more of a competition than the local numbers rackets are to the stock market. Yes, they're both gambling. People gamble in the stock market. People gamble in casinos. People gamble with their local bookies. You know, there's all sorts of stuff. It's all gambling.

But no, it's not true competition in the sense that Bitcoin has demonetized everything else in crypto already. That's why Bitcoin dominance is in the 60s or whatever. But it's a kind of stupid thing because you're comparing apples and oranges. But we hear about it every week. I'm just tired of that particular statement. But I do think there's something very relevant here, which is when you start talking about, and you said it right, volatility matters. So let me see if the share screen is going to work.

Right. This is important. this is is it working the bitcoin volatility index it is now that's at six months and you can see it's at it's at a low you know one year low five years pretty close to a low we had a little nadir right here that got a little bit lower all and you're and you can see the wild swings when's the last time we saw this or you have to go back to 20 before you saw these things So we're in a totally different world. And if you look at any of these charts and you come to the conclusion that Bitcoin isn't maturing,

as you say it needs to prove, this is your beef, Mike. I completely agree. It's prove it's maturing, but I disagree with people say it's a risk. It's going to go up if the stock market goes down, like even that people are missing. But it depends how the stock market goes down. If the stock market goes down in a crash, you're right. Of course you're right. 100% right. No one's going to no one's arguing either. But so will gold. Yeah.

Everything will do that. There's I disagree. So in a crash, if you drop the stock market 10% in the week, everything goes down, but except for bond yields. But that's a key point. We're at the different stage now where we're seeing these correlations where it's like tick for take, Bitcoin going down and gold going up when the Bitcoin going down with the stock market, go going up. Now, sure, if you have a liquidation, sure. But in the big picture, that one set the stage for the stock market, the gold that is blast off and Bitcoin to continue lower. It's just to expect this whole space of highly volatile speculative digital assets to disengage and show negative correlation to the stock market. I think I just say good luck.

I just point out, we haven't seen the beef of that yet other than every single time. We have any type of plunge in the stock market. To quote Michael Saylor, Bitcoin will outperform S&B 500. Yeah, on the way down, too. He forgot to mention that. So, okay, I hear you, and we've discussed this many times, but again, just to be absolutely ultra clear, my if and when the stock market does, if it grinds lower, Bitcoin could grind lower as it's a lot of investors are still considering it just a risk on asset. Totally agree. That's just reality. We believe that it's different, but that's long term. Now, if we have a, if we have a sharp drawdown in the market. We are so financialized. These are your words. The U.S. economy is so

financialized and so tied to the U.S. stock market that it needs to be successful. It needs to go up to continue to have GDP going up nominally. It's a necessity. So in that case, the first principle says, what is the Fed going to do if we have a stock market crash? And you see, which you would, you would see dysfunction in the bond markets. What do you think would happen? Disfunction or lower yields? I mean, it depends on what the situation is, but if you have a sell-off like we saw in March of 2020,

you're going to see the Fed step in. They're going to be buying bonds. They're going to start QE again. The question is how big the QE is going to be. Is it going to be another $5 trillion, or is it going to be $10, $15, or $20 trillion? Depends on how bad it is. you know so and in that case what's going to have a v v shape recovery stocks bonds and obviously

bitcoin i mean stocks gold and obviously bitcoin those are going to have i think you're i think the order's wrong bond yields first if the fed's cutting that much and we're doing q e and they're buying bonds start with what's going to run first i'll see what's happening already in however in china china is running 300 percent deficit to GDP there's their pPI is running 3.6 percent and their bond yields are dropped to 1.7%. It's already happening. My point is the second largest country. It's just following what happened in what was the third largest country in Japan.

There's one thing holding everything up right now. It's a U.S. stock market. This in Northern and Burden is just not going to last forever, but knock on wood. It's great. It's August. So going to my first principle is the only thing I'm going to the first principle is there will be more liquidity. There will be more liquidity and the liquidity drives the prices of these assets because it's not the assets that are going up.

up in value. It's all the fiat currencies that are going down in value against the world and Bitcoin. Yeah. Describe the U.S. too. If you go back and look at, you could look at every asset. It doesn't matter. Look at the S&P versus M2. And M2 is a very flawed metric, but it doesn't matter. You get the same directionality. I mean, look, the history has been this. What we saw in the pandemic was a microcosm, right? You know, the correlation is high, but the beta is instable. So what you saw is a crash in both and then a, you know, where the beta was X. And then a rally in Bitcoin versus, you know, the stock market where the beta was 5x.

All right. So I have a, I have a big question. Give it or take. I just want to, so let if we can pivot a little bit, Scott, maybe you can bring this up, one of the headlines of this, but we do. need to discuss and try to untangle this the tariff situation because we have gotten into now we're in which one where we have we have trump is now he's he's issuing tariffs or imposing tariffs individually on companies with i mean this is like individual company tariffs now

which is a little bit mind-blowing so now you've got invidia and amd agreed to pay 15% Vig on sales to on foreign sales and exports. So this is, I don't know where this goes and what is the ultimate outcome of this, but I would be super interested to talk about it and think and hear what you guys think. Can I ask that he's terrifying, sorry, is he terrifying specific companies or he's just exempting others? I mean, he's exempting. He's exempting some

and he's and he's what he's doing is he's he's invidion amd agreed to pay 15% of their exports to get an exemption is how I understand it so the whole thing is it is you can understand the reasons I mean the reason is obviously you start with the big to try to get it's the 80-20 rule it's classic business management the very first thing you learn when you're running a big team is you go after the things that will net 80% of the value at 20% of the effort now obviously those numbers move around a lot right that's what he's doing the implication of what he's doing on the other hand is pernicious and i don't think he cares which is our country is already crony capitalist to a ridiculous extent where big companies are

advantaged over small this extends that so i can only imagine what small manufacturers are going through right now. And that's not a good thing. And I'm not going to, I'm not going to sugarcoat it. You know, I will defend the administration on multiple things that it's doing. I hate this aspect of what they're doing because they're making it for those emerging growth companies that are smaller competitors. They have no way to negotiate specifically. I mean, it could be seen as they're picking winners and losers. That's not exactly. That's kind of the same thing of what I'm saying, but it's a broad-based thing. The bigger gets bigger, smaller gets hurt and that's a bad thing for the economy i i just don't know especially the u.s economy

which is driven by small business uh it's it's been one of my biggest bugaboo's right you know it's it's interesting but yeah so my mike likes it when i when i when i when i flip over to his side and actually criticize the administration because i'm generally pretty supportive i think i think i'm the token i'm the most right wing person here although i'm not really all very right wing when's the last time you heard me criticize the administration here's a key fact All that matters. You started with the criticizing administration. You said him firing the head of the PLS.

Oh, okay, that wasn't a criticism. No, I'm pointing out. You took it the wrong way. Okay, let me have two minutes here. We went equal time. That wasn't a criticism. That was a fact of what I expect to happen in markets. The bottom line here is I think this, we have to look back from this in future.

And if what Mr. Trump is doing, we can all agree he's doing something that's very much unprecedented on global basis and certainly in this country, to look back. from this to future and say, yeah, we only had a 15% correction in the stock market. I believe it was fine. It worked out great. He ended up in Mount Rushmore. It would be wonderful. But it's very, very low probability event. To me, as we tilt past August and look forward to the future, all that matters to me is what markets. I'm a strategist. So it wasn't criticism as all. It was what I think gold thinks about Mr. Trump is wonderful. I love you, Mr. Trump, because you push back and some of these institutions have set the stable U.S. made America great historically.

Even the Fed independence. Now, go ahead, Dave, push back. But that's the key thing, remember, is what we all do. And with Bloomberg terminals, we can test and push back in every single piece of data from this government. I mean, we have an army of Bloomberg that does that. And if there's issues growing up, it's becoming politicized, it's fine. But all that matters to markets, and the bottom line to me is to look back from even five years or four years and say, we didn't get. We just kept running on this, you know, running the U.S. stock market hot at two times GDP, the most expensive ever,

as this very significant person came in the present, I'm pointing out facts of market. So here's the key thing I'm worried about. Now, he's completely emboldened. Now, we all knew that when he was stuck in exile for four years and got reelected. You don't mess with this person. These are the things we've been pointing out. He's going to completely stay emboldened, and he's completely emboldened by a higher stock market. Tariffs will not be reduced until stock market tells it.

The Fed, even potentially easing, would not be used much until the stock market tells us to. This is the stage we are in markets based on, and also, this individualized our presence. So I look for kinks in the honor. Okay, well, the gold to Bitcoin to gold ratio is stuck at the same level from 2021. That's probably not a good sign. We looked at, that we pointed out gold, the silver ratio reached a hundred just a few months ago. I pointed out that is expensive. But still, it's, it's, there's a major, seriously historic things happening in commodities like gold versus crude oil, just things like that. But the key thing is think about what it means for markets. This is not political at all. What it means for market is,

to shift the world or this much and not have some major discombobulation in this country, yes, the rest of the world's facing it, it would be unusual. And I would love to be able to put that in the book, but you've got to expect some volatility. Well, when you're talking about causes, I mean, James, you know, James, you could go and say this, but effectively when you're printing and printing and printing, you know, you get all these things that are linked. I think that you're half right. I think tariffs are going to be the stock market 100% is, is the only signal that he cares about in terms of tariff negotiations, full stuff.

I think when it comes to yields, you got it wrong. I don't think he cares about the stock market for yields. He's looking at real estate and he's looking at the housing market, and he's looking at getting reelected, and the mortgage rates owner's equivalent rent is so important in CPI, his economists are telling him, and they're probably not wrong. His economists are telling him that if you lowered rates, inflation would actually come down. And as I said last week, you know, you look over 25 years. And the fact that we've had 20 years of low CPI with negative real rates kind of indicates that the market's perception

just off of one rate cut is, oh my God, you know, the long bond. I mean, James, you talk about demanding risk premiums. I mean, yeah, there's some of that. But the reality is the data says 20 years of negative real rates with low CPI, because CPI has a lot to do. It's a recursive effect, right? When rates are low, owner's equivalent rent is low, and that makes up 40% of the CPI. At the same time, when rates are low, companies can invest more cheaply in things that bring prices down, whether it's on shoring or automation, et cetera. So there are multiple cross currents here.

There is a direct link between rates being low and asset prices increasing. absolutely 100% you're you're right there but there is no direct link from rates to consumers it is at best indirect and it is definitely there's cross currents and i find it amazing how so-called economists won't recognize that fact and you could argue and you could come up with models to say which side will matter most but people who think it's a linear correlation they're just fucking dumb i mean it's just it's dumb you have 20 years at a 25 that show the opposite So why the hell would you make that statement as de facto true? Now, you have it, to be fair, Mike. I am not talking about you. This is not about you because I haven't heard you say anything like this. What I think whenever you say is the stock market is the key. And by the way, if anyone who thinks Trump doesn't look at the stock market,

he probably has the stock ticker in his office. It's on it. It's on it. It's all day long. Yeah, it's there. But I do think that the key is real estate. And look, when it comes to. Bitcoin in particular. Bitcoin is going to be 10x these prices at some point. I genuinely,

I believe it from my, my, my, my, my, what? What's the decline in, Dave? I didn't say it's 10x in a minute. I said it's going to be 10x someday. Okay. I think that that, you know, this, the Bart Simpson pattern is going to be a hardener. I think we will be higher by mid-September, significantly higher. I do think all those things, but I think. So you just, My view is the stock market's going to hang in there between now and September, and then we're going to have an interesting October. I think October is going to get really interesting. And I don't know which way it's going to go.

But I think that it's, I'll tell you what, if I were trading volatility, I would be long, I would be long October volatility right now. And, you know, if there's all sorts of options strategies one could use now. I am not trading. So please, dear God, don't. don't interpret this as, okay, let's go buy puts in October. But, you know, there are trades that professional options traders who understand. And if people ask me why October, it's well, and I've said this before, but just to be clear,

October is the period of time when all portfolio managers around the world get their portfolio set going into year end. They don't wait until November and December. There are lots of fiscal years at end in October. So people who are taking money off the table, it doesn't take a lot. to move the market. There's a herd behavior in investment management based on risk factors and models that you get obscure and talk about Bara and other. And potential bonus payouts according to performance and where you are positioned for the next year on risk measures. That's right.

So October is always the most, it is not, it is not remotely surprising that the biggest stock market volatility downside moves have happened in October in history. It doesn't happen every year by any means, nor am I saying it's going to happen this year, but that is the riskiest month. And so if those things that you're talking about come to Roos, that's when it will happen, in my opinion. Well, just one, just follow up on that. Just one statement, if you think Bitcoin's hired by the end of the year or at any parity fully, probably should be saying that, yeah, I've expected stock market to be up to. That's my point.

It's all the same, though. It's just, it's the same trade. It's a magnitude. One thing that's somewhat different is gold and treasury bucks. Gold is wonderful because it's stable. but Bitcoin sealing, all I want to say, Mike,

is Bitcoin's ceiling is it's short-term ceiling, short-to-intermediate-term ceiling is gold. Is what is gold is telling you. As gold rises, Bitcoin ceiling rises. That's all I'm basically saying. I'm the year.

Would you make that point about Ethereum, even if you agreed on Bitcoin? No. I guess my question is we see Ethereum making this, obviously, this massive move. We have Ethereum almost 97, percent of all ether holders are now in the green. We obviously know that we're ramping up massively on the treasury side. Tom Lee is out there being Michael Sayler. Let's say Ethereum, which has not made a new all-time high this cycle. So let's say Ethereum is the equivalent right now to Bitcoin at 55,000, right? Because, you know, the all-time high was 69 and it was trading under it.

The Ethereum is approaching right now is well over half a billion dollars in market cap. That's the number that matters. So you're talking half a billion dollars. If you believe Ethereum is going to be as essential to the modern economy as NVIDIA, invidia is its cap, at least it today. I think that, you know, and I'm saying NVIDIA because it's considered the backbone of AI, you can pick any of those other stocks. Now that's a very long way.

But my point being, and I can see Mike's point very clearly with Ethereum and down for the correlation to tech or the stock market. The Ethereum has to be correlated to tech because it is tech. It's not just correlated it is. Bitcoin might be correlated to tech in terms of the way people trade, but it isn't tech. Bitcoin is a monetary asset, at least it's aspirationally a monetary asset and at least the vast majority of new buyers. believe it's a monetary asset. If you're buying Ethereum as a treasury company, you're basically saying it's not like you had the opportunity to buy a share in Linux when Linux was going to take over unit. I'm not kidding. It's a perfect analogy. The difference was there was no token inside

Linux. It's investing in the internet, not the internet companies. Yes. That's right. But I don't know anybody who thinks that Ethereum isn't correlated to tech. I mean, I agree with my, if Mike was talking about Ethereum this way, I'd agree completely because it is tech. There's no question that it's tech. You could put it in a treasury company, but it is what it is. I mean, if let's just say for the sake of argument, this is stupid because it didn't happen, but let's say for the sake of argument that Red Hat, which was the proxy for Linux back when us old fogies were trading, right? You know, because Red Hat was a company that packaged Linux and did whatever. If you could buy buying Red Hat own a share in the growth of Linux, there would have been Treasury companies

that would have adopted holding Red Hat. They couldn't because, in fact, it wasn't. It was just a service company. But there were people who talked about it in those sorts of blowing terms back then. But no one actually did it because it really wasn't the same thing, because there was no barrier to entry. The difference is, is Ethereum the token and the Ethereum in the ecosystem, there is no, I mean, yeah, I mean, the competitors to that are Solana and Aptos and Suey, et cetera. And so if you think that there won't be indices based on layer ones to power the new economy, they will be. But explain to me how it's different than buying a basket of tech stocks that are going to power the new chipsets that are going to power AI. If you can explain that difference

to me, I'm all ears. But I hate agreeing with Mike because it makes the audience mad. But Mike's right on this. Those, they are tech stocks or tech assets. I guess it's not a good idea to piss off our audience. But Dave, the stuff you nail about precious metals, you nailed it every time. So let's start with a hypothetical for this year. Right now, Bitcoin and gold are both up 28% in the year. This is year one of Trump administration 2.0. This is going to go down in history. It might change the world.

I mean, if he's right about what he's doing with tariffs, he has a spot in Mount Rushmore. If there's a little bit of a problem with a normal recession we're overdue, you know what we're overdue for. I'm looking for sparks for that. That's the big trade. So here's my point. So we have Bitcoin and gold up the same amount this year. the fact that the difference is, historically, Bitcoin's traded with three times of volatility gold.

So you're up the same amount, but you have three times of risk. And that's right now with the S&B 500 total, turn around 10%. And if you're holding T bonds, if you're holding the Bloomberg aggregate, you're making almost 45% treasuries. It's the end of the year that matters. To me, this is all that matters now. This could set the stage for the next big trade. So the market's complete assumption, markets price, yes, the stock market by the end of year

or next year just going to add another 10%. That's fine, that's wonderful, but it's completely set in stage. It's just the way markets and human nature works. To me, the next big trade is what could happen is, let's say we end up with the stock market up 5% on the home money, a flat on the year. Now, that's a huge trade. And to me, that's where I think it's going to be kicking in,

where we might get that stage where gold takes off continues. Bitcoin goes back down and just correct. So the whole cryptocurrency market and bonds take off and just catch up what they're doing, the rest of the world. Otherwise, we just have a normal market that's doing what it's doing. But in the meantime, year one, Trump administration, 2.0, Trump right now, I would say, is the golden present because this risk off low volatility asset is beating almost everything, including Bitcoin.

James, I guess my question. There we go. But let's share this one, one screen here. Just I was going to say, why can't Bitcoin just humor me for a second. Just humor me for a second. And Dave, I'll let you chime in on this. No, this is all you, baby. This is, this is, this is, this is, this is Bitcoin versus gold since the day of the election. Okay. That's, that's, that's, that's not, it's not, you know, it's not January 1st. It's the day of the election.

That's what really matters. Because effectively, you had a, you know, you had a, a, it's like an inverse head and shoulders. A lame duck president for the rest of the, I mean, he was lame duck for years, but, you know, I mean, he was plain, he was lame. for sure. I don't know. It was president by committee, whatever. I don't know what was going on. But the reality, I mean, come on, you can't, you can't argue that. But forget about the politics. Just forget about the politics of either side. It was, it was, you know, it was a charade. So this is the, this is what you have to be looking at. And this says that Bitcoin is at, you know, is at 1.41 of what it was to gold on the day of the election. And that's really, to me, what is more.

important measure and metric in this conversation? Well, I think that, but that's, but of course that's going to be true. I mean, and, and look, you know, Trump is good for gold because he is happily and needs to inflate away debt, just like any other smart president would have to. It doesn't matter. It's not just him. I mean, Bissent knows what he has to do. We have a $37 trillion debt.

They need to inflate it away and grow our way out of it with real, you know, nominal GDP needs to go up. has to. But the real story is whether gold, whether Bitcoin will gain that acceptance as a monetary asset. And I talk about this all the time. I know I'm a broken record, but I would say that it looks like it has reached critical mass and escape velocity towards doing so, which is why I think the trajectory is the way it is. But it will not happen in, well, I don't think it will happen in Omega Candles or whatever the, whatever the cool kids are talking about these days. I think it will happen slow and steady and you'll see range to new range to new range and it will grind higher

and we'll look back in a few years and we'll see it there and yeah it'll be some big rallies in the middle and yes if the stock market drops it will drop but its correlation even at its highest is like half it's like half a percent so it's only half the time that it goes down when it goes down but the magnitude it has been it's been a ratchet the magnitude of bitcoin to the stock market is when the stock market gets into a rally or bitcoin gets into a rally off of the bottom it it moves farther and it's the the then it does when it falls and it's been doing that since the pandemic it has it has my definition collapsing well volatility is is is collapse because it's becoming more mature but exactly that's my point

that the entire the point of if you ask me a question of what will the market do if at a date it's not that it's path dependent it depends how if the stock market becomes more mag 70 and the indices hold in there but there's dramatic degradation across the broader market that's incredibly bullish for bitcoin why because it means they're going to be forced to lower rates so it all depends on how these things go and the how matters as much as the what and so it's it's hard when you're sitting at a point in time and ask it but in general you're right if the If the market crashes, everything will crash. The aftermath of that will be incredibly bullish.

Now, the question is, if you know that or think that, will it actually happen, right? Or will people try to front run the recovery? And so, and we saw that earlier in the year when Bitcoin started dropping, you know, when the first tariff tantrum happened, Bitcoin bounced pretty quickly. It's the only trade I've made all year was buying Bitcoin when, you know, Scott, you know, I paid 78. I didn't. I wasn't as good as you.

Right. I paid 82 and 78 and 74. Right. I didn't get any at 7.4. Okay, I was done. I was just, I just, I just fired one bullet, boom, done. But I mean, you know, but so we've seen it. But, you know, we'll see. I mean, we'll be on here talking about it when this is happening. Right now, nothing is happening. Right now we're in the summer. Right now we're in a range. And, you know, right now the stock market is incredibly low volatility. I mean, I don't know what what implies are, but realize volatility later. Seven crazy low. Just just a week ago, 30-day realized on S&B 500 dropped about 7.2% on a, you know, on a number of days. I mean, for the number, it stayed at that level for the lowest, longest, longest period since about 2019. So it's just starting right over. That's crazy. Yeah.

It was low. I mean, but it's, it's July, right? It was. Now it's August. Yep. Hamptons. 10 o'clock. See, I had one more question.

Isn't there a world? Go ahead, James. No, I want to pull up. he had one more we've discussed this a long time ago but just one more chart to to emphasize a point of what Dave is saying this is why it's so important what's so important about this this is this is beginning of 23 right here is when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed right here and look at what Bitcoin did look at what it rallied hard because of the type of issue that was in the market people were really scared they were going to lose all of their money and they need to put it in something that the

government didn't control it wasn't in a bank it wasn't being held by institutions that could just siphon it away they were worried that they that the fdic insurance wasn't going to cover them that they were going to lose their life savings and so some people fled to what what you're calling you know a fantasy coin it some people fled to this asset because they have confidence that it couldn't be usurped. It couldn't be stolen. It couldn't be taken from. They couldn't be just confiscated. It's theirs. And so that this is a very, very important moment in Bitcoin history that's not talked about quite as much it should be. This is an important moment. So if and when we do get some sort of collapse, what is the collapse caused by? Is it a credit event? Is it a collapse in

regional banks like this, is it, or is it something else that, that people flee to not just this gold coin, right, the dumb rock, as you like to call it, Mike, you know, which is I'm, look, I have been, I have been a gold proponent for many, many years, but I happen to like Bitcoin better now. And that's just me, you know, because this is the future. Bitcoin is superior in almost every single way to gold. And people are figuring that. out and that's the difference so let me back that up go ahead mike i was very bullish bitcoin back when it was in the 20s and 2023 when i could look forward to ets um look forward to having look forward to the potential that mr trump financialization of it though that's really the issue is now it just

now now we've had the pile on and the masses are in it and we had we you know what happens when you get the pile on the masses are in it that was one once a lot of people hate it now when and everybody loves it, it's just my spying sense. How is that different than gold? How's it different than gold? Everybody knows about gold. It's been around as a financial instrument for thousands of years.

How is that different? It doesn't mean that there's not going to be more. It doesn't mean that it's not going to siphon. Mike, it doesn't mean that it's not going to siphon more assets out of the other categories of real estate, stocks, bonds, you know, art and collectibles. So here's one difference with all. All of the different assets that you're trying,

you're trying to, you're trying to battle. You ask the question. Expansion of liquidity and money supply. Where are you going to put your money? What's the best place to put your money? Here's the number and difference with gold. If Bitcoin does what it normally does and has a 50% backup, that's a huge systematic risk from his highly volatile crypto digital asset weight.

I've never seen. If Bitcoin drops a volatility weighted maybe 20 to 30%, it means nothing. That's the point. It's the risk of this asset, systematic risk of this asset. I've never seen anything like this. It's just too risky to be involved with. Okay. Do you think it's, okay, so I need to go.

I hear your point. However, I'll say there. Amazon dropped 95% in its adoption phase, 95%. And so this is typical of the adoption phase of an asset. This is typical. I agree. And that's why Bitcoin still has, potential it could drop 90%. I don't think it could drop 90%, but I do think it has potential

to drop 50, 60, 70%. I do. But I think it's going to go up quite a bit higher from here before that happens. That's my personal opinion. And I think it has to do with the liquidity expansion globally. And that's what you have to watch first and then position yourself from there. What you showed with Silicon Valley Bank actually articulates the point that I was going to make or ask you about, which is that I can definitely see a world, whether this happens or not, it's not my base case where, as Mike says, bonds do well, gold does well, but Bitcoin does well for the same reasons that gold would do well, like it did in a Silicon Valley Bank situation, and the rest of the crypto market goes to

Haiti's. I mean, I could dev alongside a dumping stock market, I could definitely see that as a situation that happens. And I think, you know, listen, there's only 94 metals, But we don't sit here and compare gold to aluminum. And I don't think we should sit here and compare Bitcoin to Shiba Inu. Right. I just think that it's an entirely different thing, even though they may share some characteristics. So, you know, we're going to see what happens.

But I do at least think there's a situation where Bitcoin completely detaches from those other millions that Mike talks about or that it already has. Looking forward to 10.5. Yeah, it's 10.05. We lost Dave. Guys, another great show. That was the easiest one I've ever done. I didn't need to say anything. I love Mondays.

Joked in the comments, I could do my taxes. It's amazing. Just listen to you guys, pass as we can get it done. Appreciate you guys. We'll see you next Monday. Thank you. Have a good. Bye.

Let's go.