The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Nears $100K! Is An Explosive Surge Coming Next?

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

►► Sponsored by Aptos, check it out here: https://aptosfoundation.org/ Bitcoin is inching closer to the $100K mark as progress in the U.S.-China trade deal boosts market optimism, and the Fed is expected to keep rates steady. I'm joined by Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities, to break down what this means for Bitcoin and what could be coming next. Peter Tchir: https://x.com/TFMkts Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond. Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Discover Bitcoin Yield! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment. 🎙️ New to streaming or looking to level up? Check out StreamYard and get $10 discount! 😍 https://streamyard.com/pal/d/6319316098351104

Bitcoin made a beautiful push up to about $97,700, leading many to believe that $100,000 is inevitable and that new all-time highs are coming soon. As usual, people want to search for a narrative as to why price pushed. Was it the fact that India attacked Pakistan? Was it higher hopes that the United States and China are going to have a trade deal? Is it because of the Fed meeting today? I think we all agree that nobody knows exactly why it happens. But we can paint a macro picture for what's happening with Bitcoin. When I

want to do that, I bring on amazing experts like our friend Peter cheer was here today to break it all down. Let's go. What is up everybody? I am Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Yeah, Bitcoin pushing up near 100,000 as I said. So people wondering if that means it's about to absolutely fly. Peter, I have very measured optimism here,

to be quite honest. I think that we're kind of in a range. We were just at 98,000 like a couple days ago. I don't think that this is big news particularly. I think, yeah, I mean, on Friday, May 2nd, we were higher. Yeah, I think though, at least people like myself are starting to look at this administration. They kind of pivoted a little bit from tariffs to other things and clearly high on their list is something to do with crypto. Not quite sure what and you know, I've been out around

talking to a lot of you know, different states in particular. I think you could see a lot of red states in particular adopt crypto if the could see a lot of red states in particular, adopt crypto if the federal government sets kind of a precedent. So I think that could be this next wave. And I don't know whether that's what's starting to get built in, but I'm starting to look at ways to participate in that. I think if that comes true,

we should push through those 105 or $107,000 levels in terms of breaking you high. Yeah, so you obviously mentioned the states. It's definitely worth mentioning the fact that we finally got one. New Hampshire becomes first state to pass strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill into law. This is actually huge news because this week,

we had Arizona pass it through the House, Senate, committee, everything, and then get vetoed on the desk of the governor. So there was a lot of optimism that Arizona was gonna to be first. And then Florida, obviously a very Bitcoin forward state, Ron DeSantis has been very anti CBDC. There was a lot of tailwinds said this isn't going to happen in Florida as well. New Hampshire

actually the perfect breeding ground. It's kind of its own animal, the libertarian spirit and you know, but it happened. I mean, this is real and maybe that should be the reason that we saw price go up at least a little bit. Yeah, live free or die I guess wins. So it's again I don't think it's the direction the government should take especially at the federal level where we have a lot of debt so I don't see this whole magic bullet. I think you know the government should stay out of investing but having said that my job isn't to tell the government what to do it's to figure out what the government should stay out of investing but having said that my job isn't to tell the government what to do

It's to figure out what the government seems likely to do and they seem likely to be on this push So I think you kind of have to embrace it and it feels like it's really gonna be dedicated towards, you know Bitcoin maybe a couple others. I don't think you get this big alt rally if anything I think it probably continues to separate the alt coins that's kind of just play and junk versus things that might become part of a, you know, proper infrastructure conference or con. I don't necessarily disagree at all. Right? I think that this

and I think that there will be select altcoins that do exceptionally well and even probably outperform Bitcoin. But I think it's going to require Extreme knowledge great selectiveness and a bit of luck to to pick them The safest bet is going to remain by Bitcoin and wait Yeah, and you know, I've got to say you know the Trump coin whether that does well or not It's kind of interesting right that they are trying to use that and of all the altcoins It feels like the first one right what we haven't had a

Movie star or something say hey the top 200 holders get to meet me every two months or something like that It's kind of neat. I'm not sure I agree with any of it I think it's kind of very questionable from a political standpoint But it does seem like it's attracted attention and kind of maybe shifting the use case Okay, so we had the meeting obviously on the Congress floor yesterday. I don't know if you watched any of it, but Maxine Waters is all over the place.

My friend Alex Miller testified, but this was yet another opportunity for the industry to make its case on the floor of Congress for why we should get sensible legislation. And now the Anti-Crypto Army has pivoted to, okay, crypto is fine, but Trump shouldn't be participating in it, right? And as a family, which it's hard to disagree

with that, to be honest, just to some degree, I can see that argument, at least for the first time. And check this out, you mentioned the Trump coin top Trump crypto buyers vying for dinner seats are likely foreign data shows. So you can tell who's buying these things and what accounts and they're doing it all on foreign exchanges that are blocked to Americans. So a bunch of foreigners are basically bidding up Trump to get the opportunity to sit down with him.

I could see why that would be a point of contention. Yeah, and I think, again, I think that's gonna be something we try, I think as a country to kind of restrict know restrict donations and try and you know keep some track of campaign finance and These altcoins and things like that seem to be a way to get around that and I don't know that The legal side of the political campaign donation has figured out anything on that front. So we're probably way behind I suspect it is one reason you get so much support because there are ways I think to you know influence people in the crypto community has probably become

To me one of the biggest kind of lobby groups there is in terms of right It's three trillion dollars market cap and everyone in that community is pulling the same direction Right when you look at big pharma not even all the big pharma companies necessarily agree what they want and they're certainly competing with big oil Etc for different, you know rationale you've got the crypto community that just wants one thing more and more embracement of crypto. So I think it's a very powerful lobby group. And I do think those, some of these altcoins make it easier to do stuff that wouldn't pass

through necessarily typical campaign finance rules. Okay, so let's dig into the macro, obviously, which is where you specialize. I think the most obvious place to start is with the Fed today, because today is where you specialize. I think the most obvious place to start is with the Fed today. Because today is FOMC, we're going to get Powell, I think everybody expects a Fed to hold rates steady as as pressures mount here, as they say. But I would be very

surprised if we get a rate cut today, I think we had pretty positive job numbers again on Friday, which probably gives Powell some more cover. And you can say what you want about Powell. But he tells you exactly what it's gonna do. And he always has like you don't have to agree with what he does. But he's been pretty consistent in telling you so I would lean that we're gonna get a bit more of a hawkish continued tone from him. Yeah, I'm kind of the same way. I think there's no chance of a

cut today, and he may push back on June because I do think, listen, he does not want to cut while Trump tariffs are kind of so uncertain, right? I think his biggest fear is he cuts preemptively trying to help with the tariff issues, and then Trump completely backs off all the tariffs, we get inflation spiking. So his, you know, his predilection is not to cut anyways. And the jobs number, I think gave him the air cover. But I think the jobs number was heavily overstayed. I think, you know, I look at the birth death model and I don't know how much you get into the weeds on it. But what that tries to do

is estimate how many new businesses were formed. 400,000 of the jobs came from new businesses. They tend to look at EIN. So the employment identification number to figure that out. And I think five years ago, that was a realistic way to do it. The reality is to me, I think people are getting laid off or concerned about their jobs and they set up EIN so they can join the gig economy. And to me, that's very consistent when I look,

the number of law school applications are skyrocketing. And that to me is always, well, grad students are like, hmm, can't really find a good job. They get a job. Right, so to to me like that was such an outlier So I think in a couple months when we get some of these revisions will turn out this job report was way overstated Right so this I mean for the last three years Yeah, and I think this is a big part of it They still don't know how to adjust for things like the gig economy and what

that means in terms of jobs. So I think that'll get adjusted down, but it gives Powell all the air-covering needs coming into this. And he does view energy prices as transitory. I think if Trump would make better arguments and get away from eggs and energy, maybe he'd have a more compelling story for the Fed.

But he just seems so simplistic in his battering of the Fed. Which, by the way, he's done his entire career as president. There's nothing new there. But he's always wanted cut, cut, cut, right? And then, to be honest, in the first case, maybe he was right, because we overshot probably in the other direction. But the question is, I guess, if you take all the politics

and all the job numbers and everything out of it, and you're sitting in Powell's shoes, if we have theoretically, if you believe them strong job numbers and inflation kind of sticky where it is, I guess, some would say it's coming down if you look at true inflation, but from their perspective, you wouldn't cut anyways, right? And so like the numbers give you cover, but the tariffs certainly give you cover because the majority of people believe that tariffs and trade wars would be inflationary. Right, and you're starting to see more and more reports

that the ports are emptying out, right? That there's fewer ships coming in, freight traffic is dropping in the US. So the worst thing you could do is cut rates and increase demand if we are having a supply shock, right? So I think it was very different in COVID. We had a supply shock, but we had an economic shock. Jobs were getting shut down everywhere.

So he needed to cut to support that. I think right now you have the supply shock potentially that if he cuts, that would just drive the price of everything higher. So I think he has to wait to see where this plays out. Yeah, I mean, even if Trump is totally right here and the people who are saying to cut, the most pragmatic decision for the Fed probably

is to wait a few months and see what happens. And it's just like, there's no real rush to cut because like staying here is not gonna break anything. Right, and you go back historically, we're not at levels that are particularly punitive and it lets people make some money. And you keep hearing what it does to credit card debt or something that to me is the silliest argument credit card rates at 19 or 20 or 25 percent whatever they they have

nothing really to do with bed funds right and so I think they can just leave it here it's prudent if you start getting deflation or you know real risk of that they can cut quickly they can implement QE I think it's harder for them to stop inflation once it starts which which we saw kind of last time. So they are much more prudent, just wait, let's see how this plays out and see what these tariff deals look like. Like, hey, we might get some great tariff deals, in which case rates are probably fine. So let's talk about that. We have obviously Bitcoin rises as US China trade talks spark bullish crypto bet. So I find it very interesting that markets react so quickly to headlines from China when we know that you

can't trust China. And the words that are coming out are from random ministers and confirmed or denied by another random minister a day later. I don't think we've had clarity, maybe I'm wrong, from the top, from anyone in China that you can firmly trust and believe that said, yes, we're entering trade talks. Maybe I missed it, but the headline I saw was that the Ministry of something or other, you name it, confirms that China intends to maybe

have trade talks with the United States. Yeah, we're happen to be in Switzerland, you're in Switzerland, why don't we connect? It's probably, I suspect that we reached out to them. So this reminds me a lot of the GFC. And I think we all forget, you know, everyone talks about the Lehman moment, which happened October, 2008.

But from early 2007, you saw cracks in the system and it would break, then fix, break, and then fix. I think it was 2007 when Merrill had to cut their dividend all those things and this reminds me a lot of that where people seem to be so desperate to believe that this is going to get solved and that Trump is going to back down that China is going to come in and I remember it was the hardest thing to ever trade because you wake up one morning market selling off your short and I think it was you know Bush would announced some sort of thing to help homeowners and like The market would rip 3% you cry with your shorts

You have to cut some and then four days later you'd be lower again So it feels like everyone's grasping at straws here and I don't think anything has changed about tariffs And what concerns me more and more is I'm completely convinced I could be wrong but that we had a vague plan We took some steps. People didn't respond to us the way we thought. We doubled down. They did not respond again, and now we're just scrambling. And I don't think we hold the cards.

And I think every other country has now seen us back down, jumbo things. Even the Ukraine minerals deals was weak. If I'm the other side, I'm playing much harder than I would have otherwise. Yeah, I mean, I think China is very transparently being vague with the United States and being very direct with other countries. I don't think you can debate that.

We've seen movement between China and Europe to circumvent what's happening in the United States. It's not conjecture. No, and I think you even saw Carney, you know, again, I'm Canadian. He sat there and kind of listened to some things that I think are nonsensical about, you know. Again, somehow we've converted trade balance to subsidizing. And, you know, I really wonder sometimes, like,

if history would be different, if trade balances included goods, where we are crushing most nations, and if they had any measure of profitability, right? We tend to export high-profit margin stuff and import low-profit margin. So we've been fixated on this. We push people away. And I think we have set in motion something where the rest of the world profit margin stuff and import low profit margin. So we've been fixated on this. We've pushed people

away and I think we have set in motion something where the rest of the world doesn't view us as the same quality of trading partner we once were. Who would? Right and maybe that's part of the plan but like if the person you're trading with changes the deal every week you can't obviously view them as a reliable trade partner. Once again I don't think that's a political take. I think that's very clear. If you if you and your friend are making a deal, if you're buying a house and you go into contract, and then they try to change the price can't because there's a contract, right? But imagine if there wasn't and you sent the money

in and they said no, actually, 30% higher. Yeah, I've traded in this business for a long time been a market maker. And you know, you have a client makes you go to the tape. So I think I said this, okay, makes you just agree client makes you go to the tape so I think I said this okay makes you just agree maybe you go to the tapes the second I met by then I don't want to deal with this person if everything's going to be an argument if everything's going to be questioning this is not it that's not how our business world works that's not how trading works and I think we're translating this and I think countries are right to say something but here's I think the issue. China companies in China, you know, the government are one in the same. Just China

Inc. is a real thing. US corporations, the US government are not one of the same things, right? 40% of earnings in the S&P 500 come from overseas sales. First, they have constituents over there. They've got lots of reasons to do things in various countries. I think we're going to see a pushback on sales of US brands globally. I think we've seen it in tourism. We saw it look like in Tesla. I think that's going to gain momentum. And that's going to be really problematic for US corporate earnings and push the S&P 500 further down, I believe. I think you're muted, Scott.

Yeah, I tend to be with all that. Sorry, I've got a little bit of the post-conference crud. So every time I'm about to sneeze or cough, it's happened to me multiple times here. But so I think one of the big risks as you sort of alluded to though is what happens with the dollar? If people don't trust us anymore,

our main export is the global reserve currency. This could put a lot of pressure on the dollar. Now given I think people want a weaker dollar, but maybe all weaker dollars are not the same. It matters the path that we take to get there. Dollar faces 2.5 trillion avalanche of Asian sales, right? And this isn't just from Asian countries, this is largely from Asian exporters and investors alone. So this isn't even talking about China or Japan as countries selling off our debt, which I

think we know that China is probably, I mean, that Japan is definitely probably doing that to defend the yen. I think that's pretty clear. And that's why we've seen some dollar weakness to some degree. But if exporters are trying to get out of the dollar and talking about 2.5 trillion dollars, this is a pretty meaningful number. Yeah, I think it's exporters. I think it's pension funds, it's insurance companies. You look at Taiwan, right?

Taiwanese insurance companies have been huge buyers of US debt. It's not just government debt. It's the corporate debt as well. When these large pension funds or insurance companies sell corporate debt, they sell it on a yield basis. If they don't sell it to a person who buys it on the yield basis, if they sell it to the street or to the hedge fund That person goes puts on a rate hedge. So it doesn't matter whether they're selling treasuries or corporate bonds It's gonna put upward pressure on US yields as a whole. I think that's occurring I think it's gonna occur out of the equity markets It's gonna be slow not everyone has to rush out today or tomorrow

But you know Moran has talked about putting fees on foreign holders of US government bonds, potentially corporate bonds. I think the huge benefit of all these trade imbalances was we funded ourselves cheaply, both at a corporate level, but at a government level, and our stocks traded at higher multiples because people wanted to invest here. I think that's going away over time. I'll once again address briefly the fact that every time we have a conversation that involves politics the people in the comments say that we hate Trump you can disagree with a

Economic policy from a president without having without extrapolating that to your feeling about that president I've never met I've never had met a politician where I agreed with everything that they did Yeah, I've been taking some heat and I have to keep going back It's you know I hammered on the inflation reduction act because the inflation reduction act was not Reduction of inflation at all. So, you know, I think if anything probably have a bias to be anti-establishment But to be honest back in January, I was so positive and I like what Besson was saying the other day We talked about the three-legged stool where it's you know, build baby build right those

Everyone loves that right? I thought Trump was coming in, it was gonna be deregulation, it was going to be aggressive policy, like, hey, we will commit to buy a billion dollars of lithium dioxide in 10 years, so you now have a 10 year runway to produce, refining of lithium into lithium dioxide. That was what we were looking for for Trump,

and I think that's where he excels. We went down this really weird path. And to be honest, too, we had worked with 20 some odd retired generals and admirals at Academy Securities. We had come in so focused on China's and national security rights, right? We are all on board for, we need chips at home,

we need medicines, all these things made at home. But we felt that it was gonna be us versus China and kind of aligning with our closer allies including Canada Mexico probably NATO and instead we picked a fight with the entire world So I saw a huge path of opportunity it changed and I backed off I don't know that we're headed towards depression because at least we backed off some of the worst of the terror policies It's still very uncertain Yeah, and we know that markets hate uncertainty. So it's going

to be interesting. I mean, we just did just have a face ripping rally of the shape recovery right off the lows right to back before Liberation Day. So markets still are looking for any excuse to go up, it would feel but you also have to be sort of measured and honest about it because we see that when things are bad as well. These huge moves to the upside can come in bear markets. Makes me a little hesitant.

Yeah, I think I'm with you on that. And again, I think Liberation Day is the right sort of target because they've launched those things that kind of cut out everyone by surprise. They've largely pulled back. So it doesn't make sense to me that we're somewhere back around where we were on Liberation Day. I think it's probably a bit overextended. And the longer this drags on, I do think we are going to start seeing

those supply issues and that probably sends the market a bit lower. And I also think we're going to see things like tourism stuff aren't temporary and that's an economic hit to this country. Yeah, and you have a unique perspective I think that's worth diving into because of who you work with, right? People probably don't know, but you work very closely with a huge swath of the ex military. And we're not talking about random people who were, you know, out on the front lines, admirals, generals, that's basically your

business. They've got a actually, maybe you could just tell me I don't want to make any assumptions, but seems like geopolitical risk is increasing right now. Yesterday, obviously, India attacking Pakistan. Pakistan saying they're going to retaliate. Russia, Ukraine clearly not resolved yet, although I think maybe they're working towards that. But it doesn't seem like we're in a place

of geopolitical stability right now. No, not at all. I think you also had China kind of actually put foot in some of the reefs or shoals that have been contested with the Philippines, so that's escalating. You're seeing, I think we're having to try and work with Israel because Israel wants to ensure that Iran has no capacity for nuclear weapon production.

I think we're trying to negotiate something. There are so many hotspots going on. I think I get lost with what's going on in Africa. There is fighting in Africa as well. And I think the one big risk is as we kind of pull back a little bit and the US kind of tries to focus on what is most important to the US, that these hotspots continue to erupt, right?

It's kind of scary that you have two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, now actually aggressively attacking each other. Way scarier in theory than Ukraine and Russia if it escalates. Way scarier. Way scarier. And we have far less control over it.

Again, I think with Russia and Ukraine, you had NATO there. And we are pretty good in Europe. It's very hard for us to do anything in that part of Asia. Again, that's always one of the, they call it the tyranny of distance. Whenever we do war games or look at China versus Taiwan, that tyranny of distance is hard. Guam is further from, you know, out of it than, you know, China versus Taiwan. And we're so far away from Guam even, which is our main base. So yeah, these things have that real risk of escalating. and it's unclear to me what President Trump

thinks about various things and countries may wanna test that uncertainty. Are we willing to risk US troops? I think the general conclusion is probably not very much. Trump does not like to clear about. I mean, he's been pretty clear that his policy is to end, deescalate foreign wars. I found it kind of curious when we had the rhetoric about bombing Iran

with, you know, with with that be being the focus. But I think, you know, we know that that's just, you know, flexing, which United States probably should at certain times. But like, it definitely feels like we just always have these endless existential risk, I guess, to focus on markets here to markets in the US and just more uncertainty than uncertainty still. And again, that to me is one reason, you know, again, we should be building up more domestically, we should also be looking to South America, right? It's when you kind of look at the supply chains of the world, why do you want things going in and around China?

And, you know, so many of our suppliers from Asia Pacific, they have to go through territorial water or what China likes to think is territorial water pretends of is territorial water. We could do so much more with South America, Central America, Canada, Mexico, and domestically that takes away those things, right? We have much better line of sight,

much better naval capacity in South America than China. It's a huge win for us. That's where I think our policy should be figuring out as kind of this, you know, almost it's a Monroe doctrine where you go back to a North-South alliance within the Americas. There's huge opportunity there. And then we also have to figure out how to get back

into Africa, because that is gonna be a key source of these rarest and critical minerals. China has done a much better job than us. And part of this, this is one thing I would say, I agree with Trump is we put so many restrictions on our businesses in Terms of dealing with these foreign countries and it's hard, right? we want to tell them well you can't you have to have all these human rights things a Dictator doesn't want to do that

And if we want their minerals we have to do this and the other thing one of our generals who did work under Trump points Out China's all over South America and they've got you know pictures of G every mile of road because China's helping to build the road China's all over South America and they've got pictures of G every mile of road because China's helping to build the road. But we put billions and billions and billions into the country, but not just from the US perspective, but from US companies. And we got to do a better job of harmonizing

just how much US corporations spend in these countries and from fry jobs. I mean, that's always been sort of the partnership between the United States, CIA, World Bank, IMF, through the 70s and 80s, certainly go into a country, get rid of the dictator, replace them with them with somebody favorable, give them a huge predatory loan from the IMF and send in American corporations to spend the money that you gave them. This isn't like that there's no that's not for debate people. It's not like tin foil hat. Right. And I think I'm

trying to do the same thing now is Is China just stepping in and basically saying, ah, we'll give you that big loan. We'll spend the money. Just put our friendly dictators face all over your streets. Yeah, I think that's what's been happening for years. We had one general who was working with the country in Africa to get their cobalt. And he went in and said, hey, we want your cobalt,

but you have to do this and say, I said, no, no. And two years later, they come back trying to negotiate. No, no. Two years later, he comes in like, oh, no. And two years later, they come back trying to negotiate. No, no. Two years later, it comes in like, oh, don't worry about it. We already signed a deal with China. So when we were competing with the Soviet Union, so when we look at this at the Academy, we get what they call the dime framework, diplomacy, information,

military, and economics, the four main levers of power. Soviet Union had nothing on economics. I don't think we are prepared at all to fight on economics. And China figured out through this Belt and Road Initiative, how they can get their tendrils into all these countries and up the ante for us there. I guess the next question then is where does China get all this money because China seems to be heading much more aggressively

into a major recession while they're in a major recession, I would say and maybe into a depression than we are. And they're definitely a perfect recession, I would say, and maybe into a depression than we are. And they're definitely perfect example of how stimulus has a higher lows each lower highs each time, right? Do they continue to stimulate it has less of an effect each time, we know that that's how this works. But I mean, China is in trouble economically. They are definitely in trouble. And you know, we've been talking

about this, my view has been that with China is trying to do a switch from made in China to made by China So they used to just make goods particularly primarily for us and let us sell those goods and they are trying to sell their brands They've actually had a lot of success across the globe the top three sale Cellphone sales and India are Chinese brands I think to some degree this actually unfortunately what we're doing plays well into that because they are now going to go and aggressively offer their brands to these countries. Because the only way I think they can get out

of their economic malaise is to make the profit margin that comes with making your own brands. So manufacturing our brands isn't sufficient for China anymore. They need to sell their own brands to kind of dig themselves out of their hole. And some of what Trump's saying is all great, but people have not been investing in China for years in terms of manufacturing, right?

The US kind of figure that out post covid certainly and you know the IP theft everything Most US companies have been pulling out of China or certainly not putting new amounts of money when we talk to corporations They're running it as bare-bones as they can in China. So that's already been happening I'm a little bit afraid that this kind of accelerates China's ability to say, well, you know what? Now that we're in a trade war with US, we're gonna push really hard to sell our brands. And that's where they have that advantage of China Inc that they can put government policy

in line with corporate policy and push these things much more aggressively and coordinated than we can. It was interesting. I was in Dubai last week and I had never seen BYD cars driving around because obviously I'm in the states and I don't see them. They were everywhere. Listen, there were a lot of Teslas too. There's not a debate but I'm just saying it was very clear that outside the United States, Chinese

automobiles are all over the place. Yeah, and it's literally a brand that until probably three years ago I don't think I ever heard of and had really no minimal curiosity up until about a year and a half ago. Now I'd actually like to see one because clearly they are taking the world by storm. Yeah, they're cool cars. So listen, let's take I know we got to let you go in a second. But taking the opposite view, if China is in deep economic trouble, is Trump maybe actually playing 40 chess here by putting pressure on them and breaking them?

I guess it's one of those things for short-term pain for long-term gain? It could be. My biggest fear there is, I think, twofold. One is, I think we run certain mistakes because we have a very tight time frame, right? He has to get things done quickly so that we can see the results by the midterms.

So we have to act aggressively, which I think puts some risk to our own strategy. Two, I think we're massively understaffed. We't have, you know, we have too few cabinet people and it seems there's a select people trying to handle all these global, you know, that makes me concerned. And to be honest, I just feel like who's more willing to go through six months of absolute pain, China or the U.S., right? I, I was years of it. Correct. So like, you know, information is so low and if anything The one thing I keep hearing from our China contacts I think this is fairly public anyways is it feels like the Chinese citizens are rallying around G

Because they're positioning Trump as being so evil so that even gives him possibly more staying power So I think they might go through more pain than us I think their willingness to bear through is much, much higher, much, much greater. And that to me is the risk with that strategy. So to summarize, we've still got a lot of uncertainty, a lot of uncertainty, I think a little bit more downside from here on the markets again.

Yeah, that seems to honestly like from the most people that I trust that seems to somewhat be the consensus that we kind of had this big bounce and even the most bullish people think maybe it'll be very choppy for a few months before we get resolution before heading way up which by the way means either like we crashed terribly or we like go to new all-time highs next week and surprise everyone because yeah and it just feels like I thought best in speech was really good markets couldn't really rally on that and nasdaq's barely up this morning after this talk. So I think people have hit the point.

Let's see deals. We can't talk about deals anymore. We need to see something on the table and maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised by the deals on the table. Yeah, absolutely. Peter, always a pleasure to have you. Thank you so much.

We had to keep doing this more often. I love, you're just like, you just nailed point by point. You know, you make this very easy on me. Awesome. Well, thanks again for having me. Love your show. Of course, man. Everybody give Peter a follow on X.

It's pinned down below. Thanks, man. Thanks. Take care. All right, guys. Awesome. I'm gonna let Peter go now. And before we move on to Chris, which has been a while,

it feels like I haven't gotten the opportunity to talk to Chris for quite a while. Just gonna give the brief update on Aptos. So I got super lucky. I was in Dubai. I was shooting a few pieces of content for the street, which you guys know, and Avery from Aptos happened to walk by.

So I got the opportunity. I was like, let's sit down for 20 minutes and just record. So I got the full update on everything that's happening with Aptos and every time I talk to him, it makes me so much more bullish, not even more specifically on Aptos, which is great, obviously, but on the space in general, which was the feeling that I got in token. It's crazy when you dig into the metrics on how fast Aptos is growing and how fast the industry is growing, even if prices haven't been reflecting it. There's a great thread here from from about a week, about a week, week and a half ago summarizing 2024 on Aptos. This is from Nansen. So complete third party that uses AI to analyze blockchain data. I mean, 700% TVL growth, major

RWA integration, stable coins going cross chain and out the three major stable coins all in Aptos and a surge in real world adoption. I mean, you guys can dig into these network activity massively up DeFi growth, stable coins, all in Aptos and a surge in real world adoption. I mean, you guys can dig into these network activity massively up. DeFi growth, stable coins, real world assets, payments, and user experience. They go through all of it. So definitely a thread worth checking out and Aptos worth checking out, especially if you're trying to build in this space right now. It makes a whole lot of sense to go to the fastest, cheapest, and most secure chains, and they're clearly one of them. Now I'm gonna go ahead and bring on Mr. Inks. How are you buddy? Been a while going on, man. Been a while, you know,

just just hanging in there working working through the post the post conference COVID situation, which is always I'm like every single time I think I've ever had COVID that I've actually officially known that I have COVID. It's been after a crypto conference. Miami 2021. Yeah. Singapore 23, Dubai 25. I think there's even another one in there somewhere.

Good times. Good times. Man, I'll tell you. Yeah. Remember that. I remember you can, you know, it seems like every time you go out there, you know, you're a man of the world. You travel a bit, you meet Dana White and others, you know,

many handshakes. It's too many many too many handshakes. I don't know if it's that well, I think it's the combination of like, you're beat down from jet lag and travel, you know, so obviously like it but like, everyone shakes your hand and then you get into loud places and people just scream in your face. Like I definitely get it from someone pitching me some terrible project at like midnight while there's a DJ playing every time every time anyways let's talk about the charts because bitcoin had a really nice move obviously it was funny I was kind of watching it uh last

night because I was laying around doing nothing and I was like 94 95 96 97 all in like two hours yeah yeah I mean um you know, it was good. You know, the chart looks pretty great here on the weekly. Again, we had this nice, you know, this held here at the yearly pivot. Something I had talked about was likely to happen. We did dip down a little bit lower here. I expected it to hold here, but hey, you know,

swept the low again, rallied up, nice breakout. You know, we have this accumulation range here that we cleanly broke out of. This is what we call a jump across the creek, which is basically just your breakout above that, uh, overhanging resistance. And so now here we come up right into this area where we've got all this other previous kind of resistance, right? We've got that 100,000 area. And I think, um, you know, again, I've been telling the guys over there

and the gals over there at the Academy that we should be looking toward 100,000 regardless. We kind of try and watch the interior movement and whatnot. But ultimately, you should at least be looking at 100,000. And so as we jump on back here to the daily, again, we had this, you see this nice clean, just accumulation range here from March 11th to we finally broke out here April 22nd. So a month long there.

Nice move up here. And again, we get some sideways here. And then there's that move you were talking about yesterday. I was looking for it to likely come on down here and sweep this low here. But we didn't get that. But now we're getting kind of stopped up here. So the way I'm playing this right now is if we're going to continue to get rejected here, I'm going to look for it possibly to sweep this low here, still come on down here toward, let me see here. I'm going to pull up this weekly pivot area here. Yeah,

so we've got the weekly pivot here. So potentially, you know, if we lose this right here at around 95,000 or so, 95,100, I would look for potentially to get on down here toward about 92,240. And that was where I was looking for it to get to here to originally. But, you know, this is a pretty strong move up and through here. As long as we're staying above this 95,000 kind of 100 area here, I think we continue looking up. 100,000 should be just that generic kind of target that we're looking at. Yeah.

Why not test the most obvious number ever? Yeah, exactly, right? But overall, everything else aside, just based on the height of the pullback here, we've got a pattern target at 138, 864 and a half on this Bitcoin all time high index here. So, you know, I mean, I'm minimally looking forward to get up. I think we get higher than that. I think we do like, like a wave one up here, maybe to around 110,000, 111,000, then we get a wave two pullback. And then we kind of bust out. And if we're doing something like that,

around that area, we could actually be seeing this going up to, oh, I don't know here. Let me say, just take kind of a little guess here. Potentially up here around 200,000, a little bit more than that. And if you get more of a blow off top, if we got that, you know, you could see that even pop up to 300,000, which is kind of crazy to say today, because people were talking

about that, you know, I was talking about that possibility a year ago. But at the time, we were like, but you know, we're way off, we have to see how this kind of goes. And now my target last cycle was 235. Oops. Yeah, yeah. So I mean, we're kind of there, things are where they're at. Everybody and their grandmother these days talks about global liquidity, which is great because that's really kind of the driver of all things risk asset wise, right?

Because I don't think people ought to kind of sit there and understand why, but the easiest way to understand is, listen, if you've got money flowing in, if you've got, you know, all this extra kind of cash coming in there, it's got to go somewhere. So yeah, it's going to go toward your more riskier assets, you know, and then you get it, you know, in stocks, you get it in crypto and whatnot. And, you know, I don't think I don't think we're near the top at the moment here. I still see some people, amazingly, still saying that the top is in. But, you know, I've been pretty steadfast. That doesn't mean we have to test it immediately, right? Just so people know. That doesn't mean like you're not calling for 125 or 200,000 next week. Right, right. Yeah, yeah, exactly. You know, we've still got probably toward the end of the year. You know, Q4, probably toward, you know, the end of the year, you know, Q4,

that's been what I've been talking about. Usually summer sucks. Usually summer sucks. Like especially even in the cycle, when we're in the bull cycle, I mean, people don't even like, if you go back four years, I think it was 20, wasn't it 2021 that we went to 65,

back to 28 to 69 in the same year over the summer? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, you know, and it just is what it is, right? And the one thing, you know, again, that we've been talking about this year, but you know, we're always careful in the markets to say, you know, well, this time is different, but legitimately with Bitcoin, this time is different.

Up until, you know, January of last year, Bitcoin was retail driven. It is now an institutional product. And whether you like it or not, it is the way it is. A lot of people are gonna, they're out there and they argue and they complain about it because it is, but at the end of the day, if you're here to either make money and or protect yourself, become more sovereign,

I guess you could say, you have to understand what's going on and you have to You know trade invest and whatnot with those ideas in place and you know, that's not we're always talking about You know Andrew and Tillman and myself there on Wednesdays on the Beards of Bitcoin show, you know And sometimes it upsets people when we say things About the way that things are likely headed And it doesn't mean that we necessarily agree with it. It doesn't mean that we're big fans of it, but the idea is always to just give people real information

because most people that are in the market have no clue. They have no clue about TradFi and what's going on. They have no clue about markets and what's going on. And the thing with Bitcoin is, this is a once in a generation type thing. And, you know, and we're smack dab in the middle of it and people are scared. They got unit bias and they're scared of 97,000, a hundred thousand. I think they have to go put all their money into, into some shit coin because, you know, that, that, that makes them feel richer. They can own

10 billion of whatever the latest shit coin is versus, you know, partial, you know that that makes them feel richer they can own 10 billion of whatever the latest shit coin is Versus you know partial, you know a few sats of Bitcoin Yeah, I literally just yeah I literally just pulled up the chart just for 2021 just just to mess with people just cuz it's gonna make them feel uncomfortable And be fun. I'm gonna trigger people Yeah So if you go back to it was April of 21 so four years ago if you're lucky at the cycle that we topped at 64, and then had a 55.62% drawdown

into the summer, and finally kind of started going back up in July, still only back up to 40 at that time, and then obviously raged into November. If we just did that, right now, you're looking at going back to the 50 ma there on the monthly and hitting $49,000. And it would be and that went on to make a new all time high just in case you guys are wondering, I do think by the way, this time is different. I think we had shallower drawdowns. I think there's a

just a very different bid under Bitcoin. But like nothing's crazy in this thing. Yeah, yeah, no, it's it's I you know, I don't think we get a you know, another double top. It usually doesn't happen like that. That was before the double top. That was low between the tops. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And so, I think a lot of people, they pull that up. And this is another thing you'll see with a lot of amateur traders online is they kind of say, oh, well, look what happened this time. We're gonna do it again this time. And I always like, well, that was one time. You can't base something on what happens one time, right?

You know, you're kind of looking for, does it happen consistently? So, you know, obviously we can't guarantee it won't happen, but you know, the odds are usually what you don't get is a double top and then another double top following. You know, usually it's kind of an alternating type thing that we have, that we happen. So, I mean, I'm like- Right, and you knew what we had before as a double top, you know, 108 and's a, it's kind of an alternating type thing, um, that we have that we happen. So, we had before as a double top, you know, 108 and 109 or whatever. We've already more than exceeded

the topic. Yeah. The, the targets from that. So yeah, yeah, exactly. We've gotten the double top. Yeah. Right there. It's going back down the seventies. Yeah. I mean, 74 was like, literally, I mean, it never plays out this way, but that's exactly like the previous all time high getting almost retested as support and then up. I mean, that was as gratuitous a tradable bottom as you can find. Exactly, exactly. I mean, there's so many more reasons

to believe that this was the low here. What I was talking about the pivoting here, what you're talking about, testing that previous swing high, all time high there, low volume note. know what I mean? We can look at so many different ways to look at this. The fact that here on the weekly, something I've been pointing out as well

was that every time on this cycle that we got a major pullback, it was always to this 42, 43 area. So right in here, you know, the first sideways we had, and then over here, we had the touches here, and then again, right in here, have it here. And so, you know, it's hard. I think the only reason you'd be bearish at this point is just because you're just like stuck on being bearish.

Or, or if you are like a super like global doomer, like if you just believe that the world is coming to an end and that all markets are gonna crash, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, that can come a little bit further down the road. I don't think that comes for at least another, at least after this year or something. But yeah, so we're sitting here. What else do you want?

Oh, lost your mic there. Yeah, we obviously know where we stand on Bitcoin. We talked about for 15 minutes. Where does that put everything else in context? Yeah, so, you know, when it comes to alts, you know, again, I've been very adamant about this since, you know, Bitcoin came in, the ETFs came in January last year.

And again, I'm really cautious about this idea that we have an alt season like we're used to having precisely because the mechanics have changed now. We had the all seasons before because it was basically retail for the most part and they ran Bitcoin up, they cycled into mega caps, large caps, mid caps, small caps and whatnot and they cycled through it and back. And that's why we would get that all season. Um, I'm, you know, again, I'm really cautious about saying that we're going to get it, you're going to get select alts, you know, they're going to continue to go. Last year,

we had a lot of memes, memes were the big thing. But you're going to get sectors or specific types of alts that will go I think, but in all alt season, I mean, I'd love to see it, but I'm not really sure that we're going to get that. So'd love to see it, but I'm not really sure that we're gonna get that so that said right now What I'm looking at This is loka USD Loca we got the nice pullback to the s1 pivot. It's about a 68 a 61 8 pullback I think you know, that's a 2 so we're gonna look forward to breakout further If we can get out of both wave X here at point zero nine nine two that's gonna look forward to breakout further. If we can get out above wave X here at 0.0992,

that's gonna add confidence to that count. If this is just an ABC, we'll look for a 1506 to 1801 target. If it's a 123, we'll look for a 2405 target. So it just makes it easy. You know, if you're going long on that breakout, you know, 1506, 1801, then 2405 are your targets. And if we get up here, this is great

because then we pull back to 15 and then we're up here around 32. And so, we're kind of looking at that GTC USD, same idea here. I'm looking for this to potentially come down a little bit further here to this 25 cent mark at the S1 pivot on the weekly But regardless, um, if we're breaking out above 33 cents here, we should be on our way up Again, if it's an ABC we'll look at 46 cents and then 52 cents

If it's a wave three, we'll look up here at 65 cents. So there's your three targets um With any of these, if you can get an impulsive breakout and close above the pivot, in this case, it's 30 cents here, that's going to indicate the lows likely in. But as far as the count goes, we got a breakout above like in this case, 33 cents to kind of add confidence to that count to have it going. Pire for a while, there was pretty exciting, you know, back in the day, you know, a year ago, a few years ago, something like that.

Shocker. There was an altcoin that was hyped at some point. It's down. Exactly. Exactly. But here we are again, pull back to the S1 pivot here on the weekly. We've rallied up into the pivot. We're looking for a breakout above this swing high here at a dollar 24 and a half or so

And if we can get that once again, uh Five a dollar 53 a dollar 69 and then a dollar 99 or so are your targets coming up through that So, uh, but it looks like the setup may be there. It's looking pretty decent. Um Let me see here. C98. There's another one here. Again, same here. You've seen this. I've never heard of this one. I can firmly say I have no idea what this is. I can say it about most of them. I have no clue. This is coin 98 though. But again, we're getting the same structural movement here. You got the pullback into that weekly S1 pivot, looking for a breakout above a 0.0655. That'll give us targets of 0.0813, 0.0903, and then 0.1071 here would be the targets on that.

But again, if you can get an impulsive breakout and close above this 0.059, this weekly pivot here. That's probably an earlier indication than breaking out through here to say that that low is probably in and we're headed up higher. And finally, I've got, what is it? Sand here, again, same structure. Dude, the metaverse is coming back in a big way.

We all know it. Do what now? I said the metaverse is coming back in a big way. We all know it. You know, everything's coming back all the time, right until it's not a man on sand go get my mansion next to Snoop Dogg There you go But once again same structure we've got the pullback to the s1 we need a breakout above, you know 3107 point three one. Oh seven gives us targets of.3926.4321 and then.5408.

But again, impulsive breakout and close above the weekly pivot here at.287 is probably an earlier warning heads up than you're breaking above way B to say that Lowe's probably in and we're heading up. But you know, none of these say, listen, you need to jump in right now and trade, you know, on any of these, if you were to just not be patient enough to at least wait for the impulsive breakout and close above the pivot or the breakout above, you know, the wave B or the wave X, if you're gonna trade it,

absolutely the only way you would trade this would be something like this. You put your stop loss just right below. People get crazy and they're scared to lose money. So they'll stick it down here or down here. No, there's no reason to do it. Listen, do it here. Right. Get your target up there. I mean, that right there is already almost a 10 hour trade right there. Worst case scenario is this thing breaks down lower and then you wait because what's going to likely happen then is you can get a chance to get in lower and so like if it let's say it did end up sweeping down here instead of putting this way back here because you're scared to lose you

know if you're using proper risk management just 1% you can get it down here and you get this move up here and you're looking usually at more than what you would make on your initial one anyway. But it's the hardest thing to get new traders into is this idea that, you know, I'm going to be losing money as a trader, I'm going to lose money. And so they put these really big stops in there just because they're scared to and then it hits the stop. And even if it didn't, if they're using proper risk management, you know, they limit their upside profit potential. And it just, it gets really kind of crazy out there. It makes it difficult for people to,

to live the life that they want to live as traders. You got to, you got to be ready to lose money. Not that you need to make big, huge losses, but you have to understand proper risk management. And you have to, you know- Be able to take a loss. You have to. It should be a small loss. It should be a small loss. Absolutely.

You shouldn't be ready to take a big loss because you should never be in a position to take a big loss. 100%. Exactly. Really quickly, before I let you go, even though I know we're like at time here, with this V-shaped recovery in the market in general, I mean, do you think that this is one of those sort of like we had a big dip and it's over? Or do you think that this was one of those face ripping nine day rallies where maybe things are still a bit uncertain and bearish? Oh no, no. I think the low is in. Obviously, you know, I don't have a crystal ball. I can't guarantee anything, but if I'm looking at it, everything seems to be screaming that the low is in. So that's how I'm playing it. You know, what is it? Peter Brant that says, strong opinions loosely held.

Yeah. And so, you know, it's really important to be, you have to have an opinion strong enough that you can trade it, but loose enough that if new information comes in and tells you that you're wrong, well, then you do that. For me, if we were to lose, you know, right now, the monthly pivot, I'd be more cautious. If we lose the yearly pivot, I'm definitely thinking, you know, there's a good chance the top is probably in But you know that does those are my big kind of more macro looks at what we're looking at here And so for me, I believe that 74,000 was kind of that low and we'll be heading to you know, break out higher here

You know with any luck we'll get a nice big new all-time high You know prior to maybe the end of June and then we'll kind of pull back through the summer and then q4 We'll really just kick it up like we're used to doing in the past So let me start buying land in the metaverse again. That's right. That's right Guys TX West capital on X give him a follow check out his Academy and everything that he's doing elsewhere Gotta run and get ready for X spaces. I called it X. I just did it for like the first time I think last time Twitter spaces Good feel pretty good about that. Alright guys. Thank you so much. Thank you, Chris. We'll see you guys tomorrow later guys Let's go.