The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Officially Enters Bear Market! Fake Out Or More Pain Ahead?

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

Markets are spiraling as Bitcoin crashes back into bear-market territory, erasing all of its 2025 gains and triggering more than $1.1B in liquidations while digital-asset products bleed another $2B in outflows. Analysts warn the extreme volatility and cascading liquidations resemble the conditions leading into past market breakdowns, raising the question: Is a modern “Black Monday” brewing for crypto and possibly equities? With weakening support flows, rising macro tension, and a spike in fear across derivatives markets, today we break down whether this is just another correction or the beginning of something much bigger.

Depending on what indicator you use, Bitcoin has officially entered a bare market that is with a break and close below the 50 MA on the weekly chart has been a bare market indicator for 15 years with no exceptions. But maybe this time is different. Of course, it could be a fake out, but we could be entering a much, much deeper correction. Of course, we have James, Mike, and Dave to unpack all of that and everything that's happening in the macro. including a whole lot of insiders cashing out on their huge tech positions. We've got a lot to talk about today on Macromed. Let's go. uh-oh we don't uh scott you're on mute you guys hear me i was trying to do

catch that you know my mic uh stream yard is having a lot of glitching lately we couldn't end the stream the other day anyways welcome to the bear market uh dave mike james and and mike you you went all the way in yesterday with this sell on black monday november 17th 2025 starting sunday in cryptos we definitely had a bit of a black sunday although it was just kind of a black few weeks, but what do you got for us here? You really think that we're going to see it all come crashing down today? I certainly hope not, but it's the term I learned from you. I love that word spidey senses, and sometimes I feel it's my do. That's not the kind of thing I've ever put out. But when you sense major shifts in market, and it's my duty to warn people.

And so we did see the collapse in crypto's again on Sunday. They've bounced Bitcoin just dropped to Unchanged in the year. Right now, it's hovering around Unchanged on the year. Our mark is right below 94,000 on Bloomberg. And we'll just talk about what's happened this morning. The S&B 500 was up a percent for a while this morning. Now it's down to three-tenths, two-tenths, two-sense percent. And we've had, it's just a perfect storm set up for some post-inflation, deflation, or volatility into the end of the year. First of all, the key things are now, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index ended down 10 percent on Friday, on the year. after being up 30%. So all that's kind of tilting lower. The space that was supposed to go up is going down.

That's where markets really shift. And that's happening in the barn. But the stock market volatility, absolutely buried. You know, you have 120-day volatility running around 10%. If we end the year here, it'll be the lowest since, like, 2017. That's kind of a rare thing. So I'm worried that now that we've had this major almost two-month period of no data, where most people who really act who aren't not just like bots and algorithms who trade cryptos, that's just more automatic, are waiting for this data to move. And everything's starting to tilt negative. Now, it's early.

Certain the cryptos are showing problems. And this is happening with stock market volatility very low, gold going parabolic, and it's towards the end of the year. It's where, okay, you just look at the average for this year, the average price of Bitcoin is $103,000. So anybody who's bought it on averages here is losing money. Are you going to buy, are the dip buyers going to win or people are going to be more hitting stops?

I'm more sitting towards the ladder, and I'm fearful if we just get a, let's say, maybe a 5% drop in the stock market. It's still a great year, up 10%. That means things like copper have a big problem, should go lower. Crude oil is already showing the deflation. Cryptos are already showing the problem. Bond yields have been declining. Yes, they've picked up since the first Fed starting news. So I'm really worried as we get towards the end of the year of a decent, I hate to say the word crash, but mean reversion can be a crash.

1987 was a mean reversion bent. The stock market ended up 2% that year. That's what I think is going to happen. I need to be dissuaded from then. I suspect Dave and James and you might help me. But right now we have a bear market, I think, is accelerating in cryptos. And I think the problem is the dominoes are going to follow. Yeah, I think since we have the title here, Bitcoin officially enters bear market.

We have a lot of takes on what a bear market means. Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise was going viral this weekend for saying he thinks we've basically been to bear market for six months on Bitcoin. I mean, you take a look at the weekly chart. There's that break below the 50MA on the weekly. like I said, it's never closed below and not gone down and tested the 200, which is rising, but at 55 right now, not saying that will happen. This time could be different, but this time has to be different at this point.

And you could argue going back, I mean, this is this time last year. Bitcoin was the exact same price. We're down now in 2025 calendar year, if that is meaningful. And Mike, I think I asked you that's a market mavericks along those way. People will love to say that we're correlated, but gold's way up and stocks are way up. and Bitcoin's actually flat with some volatility up and down. So it looks wildly uncorrelated to me if we're talking about a few percent off the highs of gold and stocks. And here we are with Bitcoin completely flat or down, right?

Yeah, so it's what happens towards the end of the year. And obviously guilty was wrong, was early, but I got that sense that gold was the place to be last year. And now the same signals I was similar. It's just as things you get within the markets from one time, you sense extremes and see them. I get the same thing in gold now. That's why I think everything is just bad. That's why I look over to good old treasuries is, yeah, the one I've been most wrong on, but if we just get some normal, just a 5% back up in the stock market.

The bottom is it's completely, the in-Norpe burden, it has to go up now. I even look at that in things like copper and crude oil and natural gas and bond yields. The stock market assets and certainly cryptos, it has to go up, but we're going to just get this continued tilt down. And that's why, you know, this week and next week, as we get into the holiday, I just remember having P's and Ls that would have major flips this time of year, and I used to have hair, too. Sometimes it can get kind of nasty. So the danger of using three, four, five data points when trying to make a statistical analysis is not about this time as different.

This time is different is when you have something that has hundreds or thousands of data points and expected to be different the next time. So I'm sorry, but there's not – and look, I've tested every one of these. technical signals, you know, over 10 years of running prop trading, you know, prop trading on the quantitative side, and not a single one of them has statistical significance. Yes, they are guideposts in terms of human behaviors, and that's what you're seeing, but you have to understand. I mean, you know, we keep focusing on Bitcoin, but if you want to look at the person and everyone's saying that Sailor should be panicking, and if, you know, we watched Grant's

interview with Sailor, he looked like the opposite of panicking. I don't think he gives a F. And thinks, you know, he has the asset. It's either you believe it or you don't. And I'm going to, and that's going to be a really interesting, that either you believe adoption will continue to accelerate. And by the way, outside of price, the metrics do show that. So that's okay.

For the record, quickly, not to interrupt you, David, I want to point out that last week there was legitimate FUD going around Twitter that Michael Siler and strategy were selling because some wallets had moved. Honestly, and that actually went viral. And he bought 835 million more while that. So here's the deal. Carolyn Pham is going to need to sick the CFTC on this because honestly, that is, if that was done in the stock market, I guarantee you that whoever did it would be up for and looked

at for manipulation. And I think that that was true. And there's a lot, been a lot of that. It's accelerated. And generally, FUD accelerates towards the bottom, but not the apex, you know, the bottom, you know, not the PICO bottom, as you might want to call it. But you see an acceleration of FUD as bottoms are happening. It always happens.

And we'll talk about that later. But I do want to make the point that if there's one human being who should have sweat on his brow, it's Tom Lee. Because Bitcoin is still, you know, middle of its range from its bounce from the tariff tantrum to now. Ether is below that level. I don't think Tom cares. Well, whatever. I mean, you know, I'm just saying, well, then his investors should care because it was either last week. Like 10 days ago, he was calling for 9,000 to 12,000 or 8,000 to 10,000, ETH by New Year's.

I mean, the Ethereum, the bottom, I guess, that's 22. Didn't we have, I'm wrong. The bottom of the tarotanchet was 1,600. So it's done a 50% retracement because it went from 1,600 to 4,600. And now it's, it's just above, you know, a 3,100. So it's down a significant amount. And, you know, it's, if you look, if you look at what people will consider levels, if it, if it fails 3,000, you know, the question is what's going on there. And, and if you, and if you think ether is bad, look at the, then you go start going down into, to more and more into the all coin season. And you see absolute cataclysms. You see things that happen in crypto winters, right? Never. There was only a bear market there and it's been there for, uh, since that is correct. So, so whenever Mike talked to at the galaxy, you know, Bloomberg Crypto Index, which is a little bit old and long in the tooth in its construction,

but still, when you look at it, you're talking about most of the components are undeniably in a bare market, have been in a bare market with a couple of blips for most of 25. You had the rip in ether and from a very specific liquidity drive. And so you see that. But that's not really the point. The point here is the fear, the fud, the selling. is crescendoed. And we know that that's true. The other point, and it's a very simple one, and I titled My Relight of the stream, you know, buy when they're crying. I mean, this is a

crying. But on the other hand, if you look at what's happened with the stock market, I agree with Mike. I mean, one of the things I always look at is insider selling. And insider selling in the stock market is extremely hot. The difference is people are still buying stock, so the insiders are selling, and there's retail that they can dump on. In Bitcoin, the OGs were selling, and you know, you could claim that they're insiders, although I think in there, it's more of a political and or, you know, lifestyle shift. And they, you know, it eventually ran out, you know, the demand was overwhelmed, not by a lot, but by a little. And that's why I broke below 100,000. And that's why it's kind of sitting in this very tight range over the last few days

because it's really a question of even James's partner came out and made a comment that he's raising cash. And we don't know if he's selling Bitcoin to get to his cash. I have no idea. But when you start seeing people like the big print Larry saying that, that's definitely closer to a bottom than the top as well. That's that old word capitulation coming in. Now, honestly, it's always makes sense to have cash if you're in you're a trading firm.

because you always want to look for the extreme opportunities to goose your performance. But that's a different story. Anyway, I'd love to hear James' thought on that. But before we leave, and you didn't do the morning meeting, I am really curious about what you guys are looking at in Japan. Because Japan had two things going on. We have a massive stimulus package announced, not surprising. But at the same time, we're ticking levels on dollar yen and JGBs

that should be panicking the carry trade folks, people who are borrowing in yen. in order to fund their their trades elsewhere i'm curious i mean i haven't heard the word carry trade over the weekend and i'm looking at the numbers and it seems strange to me so what what are your guys thinking about that let's go to james first and that can i'm we've ever reiterate because they think it's james turn well i mean look i'll tell you what mike what did uh what did they say in the morning meeting um and then because uh because that kind of frames up everything that we're looking at this morning. Okay, so I'll start with, Dave nailed it, our FX strategy,

Audrey Child Freedom, focused only on the yen, point out the path of the resistance is further weakening in the yen, point out the macro policies favor weak in the yen, and Elsa's flare from China. So she's pointing out that that might see more weakening in the yen, which obviously means more carry trade. So Ana pointed out that payrolls, we're going to get the September number. She thinks it might see 54K. but it's edging towards 4.4% unemployment.

The key thing she pointed out, the small business estimates have been quite more improving in September. She said the pure home-based forecast might actually be boosting up a little bit. And she says the chances from this number to make the Fed lead torns in ease, which is all tilting out to less than 50% is unlikely from this report. And then she dug into that, we're going to see the FOMC minutes. And from the last meeting where Powell turned Hawkins,

she fully expects that you're going to see several, world officials backing him up and some actually turning towards tightening. And she gave the example of looking back at some of those minutes in 1995. We had similar situation. Greenspan tilted the bias towards easing partly because you saw the pretty significant productivity improvement nailed to him. She doesn't expect Paul to do that. And then just from Ira Jersey, our FX strategy, I'm sorry, our interest rate strategy is a point

on the market's the market expecting the Fed to cut at a slower pace and he disagrees. right now it's less than 50% for December. He thinks that's too low. The front end, a bit of a tightness in funding markets, which thinks is part of the reason when we stopped the QE. And he pointed out, Besson said it's going to take a long while to increase coupon issuance. But he does fully expect that the Fed will be cutting at a greater pace

and what's currently priced in. He says, we're not priced for a full, 25 full cut until March at the moment. And then our equity strategies point out, there's still quite bullish trends and things like that in equities. That was Michael Casper. Interesting. So we're not going to get the unemployment rate, right? Because that apparently is, it can't be calculated.

It can't be presented. I mean, you know, you know, it's hard. You're going to divide numbers. It's really, it's tough. It's really difficult. It's pretty. If you just come back and pull all the way out, the most important thing to realize is that markets hate what?

uncertainty. They hate uncertainty. And if the markets hate uncertainty, they, they go to cash. They get, they get liquidity, you know, they need to take some exposure off the table. And by and large, we're seeing a massive amount of exposure being taken off the table in cryptos, in Bitcoin and the other, you know, whatever is is not Bitcoin. So that's not surprising at all. What is surprising is that, you know, we had a lot of chatter last week about, you know, problems with the just the sheer amount of, of, I guess, the multiples that are in these AI stocks and the exposures in the AI stocks. And then you had Michael Burry come out and I'm not sure we didn't talk about this last week. He shorted heavily and closed his hedge funds. Wow.

He closed his hedge fund. Now, it's unclear whether he just closed it and he's just managing his own money and he just doesn't want to hear the noise like last time. Because remember, he almost got liquidated last time. Like, he was right up against the edge. And he just may not want to hear it. He thinks the markets are irrational and they're not making sense. And so he doesn't want to hear it. He's going to do his own trade and get away from the noise.

and that's probably smart for him. You know, then you had all the articles about just the incestuous revenue counting inside the open AI and NVIDIA networks and whether or not that is a problem, it's difficult to pull apart. You know, are we looking at? And so this is on people's minds in the market. And it's on institutions minds in the market. And you saw some of this. in the price action last week in stocks, which was, hey, do we have a problem here that's looking

like Enron 2.0? Now, I don't think we do. That's my personal opinion, but I have not dug deeply enough to give a fully informed opinion on it. I want to make that clear. I am not exposed to that stuff, except tangentially because of the hedge fund that I run and the assets that we have are, they they are exposed to that in some beta and because of the way that the market moves and how these things are correlated but you know especially things like the the energy uh stocks and they used to be called bitcoin miners right so um but once upon a time once upon a time until mike alfred got involved but the uh you know the but the if you're looking at bitcoin and wondering what the heck is going on it's I mean, it's just not, it's not rocket science to see this have risk taken off the table on the weekend in a name like Bitcoin because there's large holding in it and it can, you can raise a lot of liquidity in it really quickly at a time of the markets, the rest of the markets are closed.

Like nothing's open and Bitcoin's trading all weekend. It's not a surprise. So it's nothing that we haven't seen before. You know, to Mike's point, look, Bitcoin has drawn down 25% from. from the peak already and does that shock me no of course not you know we we've we've said it could draw back to 100,000 now that's under 100,000 that's a little bit surprising for this time of year but again like dave said it's not surprising for people to be doing window dressing and moving their portfolios around this time of year it's actually it would be

surprising if they weren't um so that's just the way that the that wall street operates I guess what really does surprise me more is, and I didn't expect quite this, the sheer amount of selling we've been seeing, is just the absolute massive amount of old coin selling. The OGs are apps. They are dumping and dumping and dumping. And you know, you can say what you want. Maybe they're moving wallets. They're not. Ractualize in any way you want. It's now it's an IPO. It's like And, you know, it's like the post-IPO activity where the first players get out. You can say whatever you want. The reality is they're cashing in and they're going to cash and yachts is what they're doing.

And again, I will reiterate, I don't blame them. I mean, if you've held on for this long and you've done this well and you've become a billionaire from holding a thousand coins, God bless you. And people have to remember this for some of these guys, this is a 10, 20, 30 percent of their coins. is you can't make the assumption that they're unloading everything. A lot of these guys are literally driving Toyota Corolla is living in a one-bedroom apartment and are finally thinking, hey, it's been 15 years. Let's go. I said this to Matt Hogan yesterday, though, and I've said it repeatedly, James, is just

exactly what you did. I'm surprised they have so much and I'm surprised they continue to just keep going. Unload. It just to amaze me how much supply there is in the market. I am, you know, I honestly think that, and look, they were far, more sophisticated in their understanding of Bitcoin than I ever was. But, you know, I would, I would guess that a lot of them are not sophisticated investors and are just like, I just want to, I want to now get out. I have held on this long and they've done better than any Wall Street, you know,

executive in the history of Wall Street. And so well done. But I think a lot of them had in their mind 100,000. They're going to ride this cycle as far as they can. And they think, well, it's four-year cycle. It's over. It hit 125. It's done. And I'm going to cash out anywhere between $100,000, it's good enough for me because I've made a billion dollars, you know, whatever it is. The second thing is, and this is the crucial point, and this is what's really critical to what Mike is talking about, is and to put an accent on Dave's point, which is we have. We have a, have three or four data points in Bitcoin. Like literally, we can't just keep looking at these charts and saying, oh, it's a four year cycle. The four year cycle in my mind is dead. I don't see this under

a four year cycle anymore. It's not driven by the having and the, you know, the reward that's coming from mining anymore. It just doesn't make any sense. That does not make sense to me. What does make sense is it to be on more of a four-year cycle because of political noise or adoption or, you know, political hate. That, that does make sense to me, you know, antagonism from the Biden administration was real. The adoption from the, from the Trump administration, well, we saw a large benefit from that right after the election that we've talked about, went from 65,000 to 100,000. thousand in a nanosecond. And so we have seen it gone up 50% from that. Real adopt, you know, real support from Trump administration.

Well, you're seeing it behind the scenes because of things like the, you know, a lot of different things have happened on the regulatory front, which have been positive. It's not from Trump. It's from the whole, you know, the whole Republican, you know, Congress and all of that. and more support in that in in the conservative side so you're going to start seeing banks adopting it like we've been seeing jp morgan is is doing you know they're they're coming up with uh products and lending products and collateralized products and and other banks are following suit and morgan stanley and you're you're going to start seeing more and more banks doing this have we seen the benefit in the

price no uh we saw the benefit in the price from ets and a lot of a lot of you know adoption from institutions. We just saw that it's the iBit is is one of, if not the largest single position that Harvard owns, the Harvard Endowment. That's a big deal. You know, that's not, like, we can't just ignore these things. But what is surprising with all of that positive momentum and all the positive developments, again, is just the sheer amount of selling that's coming from the old coins. And until that's done, we're going to continue like this. Yeah, there brings some big outflows from those digital asset products as well. So do the math.

You got it, we got to do some math. For Bitcoin to become the globe to replace gold or at least make inroads on gold, gold is held incredibly widely, right? Gold is held by central banks. Gold is held by by, you know, by pools of capital. Gold is held by individuals. It's used. It's the way for wealth building in India. you know, via, you know, whatever gold.

But gold is in the financial system. Bitcoin was 70% in the hands of a bunch of people who were outside the financial system, you know, several years ago. Until that number shrinks to 10, 15, 20%, Bitcoin can't approach gold. It just literally can't. The numbers don't work. And so you need to have distribution phases.

We did see a fairly sizable distribution phase in 2021, or is it 2020? I get confused. After Paul Tudor Jones made his point, around 10,000, there was a very sizable distribution phase where the market, Paul Tudor Jones said this, other hedge funds started talking about it. People like me managed to finally get my retirement fund put into Bitcoin. And from the day that he made his statement for five, months, it did nothing. It dropped a little below. It went a little above. It dropped a little below. It stayed there. And five, six months later, it started that epic run. And it started very slowly on

the epic run. It went from, you know, 10,000 to 12, to 14,000, you know, over a couple months. And then, you know, it, the selling stopped completely and whoosh. We saw massive exuberance at the end of that, a huge speculative, you know, impulse, kind of the same thing we saw. with silver over the last, you know, over the summer. And, you know, the difference is there's just less selling. Once the selling stopped and people say, oh, you know what, I'm going to wait for the next round number, which is 100,000. All of a sudden, there was no coins. Woosh. Now, am I saying that's going to repeat? Yes, it's going to repeat. Is it going to look exactly the same? No, of course not. You're in that period. The difference is, is 100,000 is a really meaningful number because

it effectively sets people up for life as opposed to making them feel happy. There's a difference. So if you owned a thousand Bitcoin at 10,000, that's a lot of money. But at 100,000, that's game over. I don't have to work again. And to be clear, I've heard from a few OGs that have sold because, and not Larry, but I have heard from few OGs who have sold. And their answer is, I want to have a, you know,

I want to be able to live to exist the next two years without losing sleep and knowing that I've at least secured my family's future. Exactly. That's it. For 50 generations. Right. But yeah. But, you know, for generations,

although they'll blow it in the second generation. We're talking about generational wealth, right? But it doesn't, but the thing that matters is that there is a group of, of those people who want to who that's true and there's a group of those people who say why can't we be the next jeff bezos why can't we be the next uber you know whatever and and they'll hold out for a million and and look markets are complicated but the point is when you look at it do it by holding something he did it by building something but yeah building well building and being when you take a financial risk and you with significant conviction

And you're right, you can catch you, you, you, most people will cash out. I mean, I don't know about you, Mike, but when I buy something that's speculative and it goes crazy, I sell 25. I generally, my first, first reaction is always, it hasn't been in all cases. Playing with the house is money. Well, that's what Mike, Mike, you're saying that all along, you're saying like, just takes them off the table. Right. But here's, but the thing that I'm trying to get at here is what is, what is funny is the stories. So all like the whole Zcash narrative and you know I had a whole conversation with Donish about this yesterday because I jumped on the coffee with Donish thing and we we had it we had some fun this weekend just chatting among a few of us. But you know with like 800 or 900 people watching it was kind of amusing. But the interesting thing is when you look at it, the narratives from a lot of the OGs are like oh well it's can you know Simon Dixon. Now Simon and I don't see I die on a lot of things. We do see on others.

But when he says, well, BlackRock having IBIT means that it's captured by the financial system, which means Bitcoin isn't what I thought it was. Well, what did you think? How do you think you're going to get Bitcoin? That is one of that is actually a very important point, is that someone like, it's been captured by Wall Street. It's not the freedom. Get around it.

That, you know, self-sovereign money that we thought it was going to be. Except it is. You got to go through it. Like there's no path to global adoption without. That's right. But the point is that that's been my point all along, yeah. What matters, what matters to those people, and I will keep saying it is, yes, if it is an, if it, as long as it is an option, and there are places like Britain that are

talking about banning self-custody or the UK or Europe, which is kind of insane, but they're going to try. I don't know how you're actually going to do it. But the truth is, as long as it is an option to be self-sovereign, as long as on-demand settlement, which in everything out of our, our. C, everything out of our government has always been a feature of every single attempt at legislation. The fact is, as long as you have the ability to hold it yourself and it's portable, you haven't lost anything by having others.

They'll make it near impossible. They'll make it near impossible. The way they'll do that is that they, the Europe is already, they're already going down this road. They're going to regulate every single app that's on your phone. They're going to, they're going to regulate every single rail that you have from a, from a financial system into, exchanges and they're going to say that you're you know they're going to limit either the amount you can hold the amount you can spend or where you hold it how you hold it and it's got to be on exchange like they're that's that has nothing they're literally talking about if you if you want to

if you want to change you can go on the rant but focus on the fact differentiate why or how could you have any crypto asset or any asset that would do better job than bitcoin at self-sovereignty in that scenario i agree a hundred percent i'm just saying they'll make it very difficult the the barrier to getting will be it'll be like the you know going into the in in 2010 or 2010 where you're going into a parking lot with a suitcase of cash to get you know bitcoin on a thumb drive well i've been there yeah it's uh it wasn't a suitcase in that's where they're headed that's all i'm saying yeah you'll end up with it europe is in a very slippery self you'll end up with a black market right you know you'll end up with all sorts of stuff.

But you notice that... That's not a bare case for Bitcoin. I'm saying it's a bare case for Europeans. Yes, exactly. It's not about Bitcoin. But the point about the OGs is what's happening in the United States is it's an option. There is no... Let's be very clear here.

There is zero. And I mean zero chance that some people will ever trust or do self-custody because they don't trust themselves. They're too sloppy. They don't have the technology. They're going to want to trust an intermediary. of course gold you can hold in a necklace try selling gold in size and using it for and using it for something you're not working with gold savings to a store these days let's get back let's get back to like the macro because this is what the macro show is not just about pick yeah yeah we really do talk about japan you're right there's a lot to talk about wait yeah like we need to talk about the fact that you had a slew of fed governors come out last week and absolute like you you they could not be more hawkish saying that We're not having a rate cut in, you know, in December.

And to Mike's point, that's got the market more than split now. Now you've got the the probability went from 70% of a rate cut using Fed Fund futures, not a 41%. You know, it was at 69% just a week and a half ago. And, you know, two weeks ago before the Fed meeting, it was at 67%. you know so here we are you know here we are this is we're we're we're we have a lot of uncertainty in the market trying to figure out what rates are going to be and just how hawk is the fed is going to be at the same time you came off the back end of a really sloppy repo market at the end of the end of the month last month so that's got people a little bit jittery and wondering just

how much liquidity is out there wasn't there a crap auction last week too it wasn't terrible it was just another not great you know i mean but you've got the you've got here's the thing that you do have and this is really important the the government's reopening you've got over a hundred billion dollars probably closer to 150 billion dollars that's sitting there in the treasury general account that it's just been locked up for months now you know over over a month that the Treasury General account is supposed to be at $850 billion. And right now it's it's bumping up against a trillion, you know? So yeah, that's I did write about that last week.

So, you know, the, the, this is liquidity that's coming. And you could see the markets needing more liquidity in, in, like, let me share this, Scott. You tweeted about this. I treat about that. Oh, yeah, do you really believe the government's going to curb spending the Fed and asset prices are going to stop rising forever? Exactly. But here's, you know, if you just share this, this is the SOFA spread, right?

So this is the overnight lending spread. This is a secured overnight, you know, repo rate, basically, right? So it's a funding rate. SOFR secured overnight funding rate, which means that if you're a financial institution and you've got treasuries that you need, but you need cash, you can go ask your buddy, hey, can I borrow some cash and I'll give you my treasuries overnight? And they'll give you a rate to do that. Typically, it's right on the Fed funds rate. You could see right here, it's typically right about the Fed funds rate or a little bit below. Why would it be below? Because you're

giving them treasuries so it's secured it's not like an unsecured loan you know so but you're seeing here that this has gotten a little bit more volatile that the going into the end of 2025 and now it's it's you can see that the trend is higher that the the rate is going up that people are charging each other there used to be a really big stigma to go into the overnight window because it meant that you were you were illiquid it's like using your it's like using your visa card to you know pay off your master card pay off your master card yeah basically it's like it's like using your visa card to pay your you know your auto loan like taking a cash advance from your visa card to pay your auto loan it's like that's not that's not a great move that's kind of the way it used to be looked at in in wall street

and in you know and Dave and Mike know what I'm talking about it's like you didn't want to go to the overnight window it had a bad stigma to it but now you've got this thing you know you've got the standing repo facility that the Fed created and they're like nah come get some cash anytime you need it so you can keep the liquidity there but banks are still reluctant to do it they're they're borrowing from each other but the funny thing is reserves are going down it's getting a little bit tight and people are nervous about this too right here And so if they're nervous about this, it doesn't surprise me that they're selling assets they can get their hands, some cash from that have been quite volatile over their life, something like Bitcoin. Doesn't surprise me at all. So, James, two questions and their questions. Question number one, it has been asserted by a few people that there have been lots of emergency meetings. And so they're pointing to stresses or they think that there's something underneath the surface that we don't know. ever see i i never believe conspiracy theories i'm curious what you take on that i saw that from the financial times i you know until i until i see it from a reputable source you know um i don't i don't i agree with you about the financial times i don't consider financial times a reputable source anymore no used to um so you know if i i don't i i haven't heard in in my in my circles that there's you know massive uh like anybody's running around their hedge cut off like like they did

back in long term capital management kind of thing or back in the repo crisis i'm not hearing that stuff okay is it possible sure maybe it's quiet that they're just quietly meeting but i don't think these are like well let's ask this isn't like a mid meeting oh let's start q e tomorrow kind of meeting is not what i'm hearing i'm relating asking to the no i understand that but Swap lines to Tokyo, on the other hand, is a different question. So with the JGB's definitively breaking above that, you know, the, where are we? Let's get it exactly. Where are we right now?

Bonds. Sorry, I'm just trying to get to. Yeah, exactly. You know, definitively, the JGB over 1-7, it wasn't all that long ago that we said if it gets over 1-6, that people are going to start panicking on the. carry trade, right? And, you know, the carry trade hasn't vanished. There's still an absolute ton of Japanese liquidity. You know, people got to get on. Yeah, we got to get Mike in here on Japan. Yeah, exactly. As I keep, I keep asking, I want to know, why is it that nobody's covering

this today when the JGBs are now a full 10 basis points above what used to be considered a critical level? Right on that. Yeah. I guess I'm jaded by JGBBs. The question. I was on live TV a couple of years ago. I said, JGB, and the young anchor did not know what I was talking about versus those of us. I figured they'd make your laugh. I mean, because those of us, you know, 30, 40 years ago, this was everything. And now it's just such a saturated part of markets. Yeah, the carry trade, like I get it.

I just don't know how it makes much of a different anymore. I'm more focused on really, okay, there's obviously volatility going on in Japan. And now we have any issues with China. To me, it's that, you know, we still have that 10-year-note yield. in the JGB at 7.2, but in China, it's been one of the biggest bull markets the last five years is that 10-year-note yield at 1.8. And I just think of ways what's going to stop it from going there. So I definitely want to go there, but I like to show you a few charts if I can to rope in what I'm thinking on the macro with, if you can link this, Scott, with everything you're talking about.

First, we're down to 43%. James, you mentioned that for the next cut. But it's one key thing. Remember then the Fed cut in September. We looked at the September Fed funds a year out. It was at 3%. Now it's 3.17. So what's happening? The Fed cut, the cut twice, and bond yields are going up. Duh, guys, sorry. It's wrong. You're not supposed to be cutting rates. Markets telling them that. So we've got to go out to way into next year, like June, April to get 3%. And then it starts going up again. That's the problem. It's the lose-lose. Stock market's telling them you can't cut anymore. Cryptos might be in a problem. But I want to tilt over to key. thing, the macro things that have really got me scared. And this is a chart. I can go back 50 years if you take the S&P 500 divided by GDP, divided by the MSCIX World and UX and divided by gold. It's all the same chart and gold versus gold, it leads. But gold's broken down. It's breaking down through this key support. And this is why I like to point, okay, so you might say versus GDP doesn't really matter. Yeah, it's all this antiquated. But versus the rest of the world, they all might just be reverting a little. Just a little reversion is what I'm worried about. Just starting to

kick in in next few months. And what is the same chart of that? It's Bitcoin to gold. It's the same thing. The key thing is this thing has never gone up when volatility is this slow. It's just the way it works. Maybe it's different this time. Every time we get volatile slow, the Bitcoin gold goes down. Of course, our model shows it should be at 13 when it's at 25 and 23. It's just heading that way. So I'll end with one key chart that really struck me. And when we did at X spaces on Friday and CJ was pointed out how bullish she was because of the chart and Bitcoin, I just look at an annual chart in Bitcoin. It's just on the cost of going down. What stops it for going 50,000? Nothing. It's just man. It's not a big deal. That's when I like to maybe get re-bullish again and maybe some other

reason. It's just if, you know, you take out some of the speculative accesses, you flush it out, and that's what Bitcoin always does. And then it resets. But right now, I don't see, I don't see a stop in the macro until things tilt over. And Bitcoin's leading way until it maybe gets back to 50. And we just start this green on the year. If it starts turning red, I don't know what stops it now. But you have to have it. You have to have a structural event for it to go to 50 in my why. But forget that for let's first of all it's the it's the denominator I don't want to go down that road. You said something that's the most important point that is actually happening and to not acknowledge that is problematic. You said we need to flush speculative access. It's not done.

Don't get me wrong. Not done. But if you go through coin market cap and you start looking at at the speculative excesses that were in actually potentially good coins, coins that people like the sizes are down. I mean, just over the last 30 days, you're talking 20, 30 percent corrections in a slew of assets. In a five-year period. Just the last 30 days and over the last 60 or 70 days, you're talking 50, 60, 70 percent down. You are seeing a huge flush and speculative accesses. Well, Bitcoin is down 20 percent from its all-time highs. These things are down. down 50 to 70% in many cases from not all-time highs, from intermediate highs, or whatever. So you're seeing a lot of speculative exits.

You're seeing the crypto community effectively pull themselves into a turtle shell and not buying. So you ask yourself who's selling. I don't think there's a lot of selling right now except for people taking profit, traders taking profits. I don't think the OGs are selling at these levels. It's just not what you're seeing. What you're seeing is the crypto community isn't buying. The only people who are buying are people who look more like us, and that is focused on Bitcoin

and I'll look to some degree in Ethereum. You don't see, you know, people in institutions running into hyperliquid, even though hyperliquid has some pretty good fundamentals. You know, you don't see them running into suey, you know, you don't see them into, you know, whatever, BitTensor. Those people got liquidated on October 10th as well. That's right. There's a huge liquidation who are no longer in the market who would have to find.

So there was a massive excess. flush that happened. And now we're seeing the after effects of that. In order to get another alt season cycle, you need to see a serious bull market of new money into it. And you may never see it. You may never see, you know, fart coin go to a billion dollars again. You may never. I hope, I actually hope it doesn't happen. But to say that there hasn't been. Now, as far as Bitcoin and 50,000, whatever numbers you're picking, you're actually, if right now, you are at one, of the most stretched points it's ever been in in or are we it or the most stretch points it's ever been the most stretched it ever was you're it's it's pretty close to now it was on september

of 23 at bitcoin at it you know it was sitting at 25 000 compared to the net the bitcoin network might have been the most stretched on the downside relative to hash rate but it's pretty close to where we are now. And, you know, I'm not going to, I'm just going to say that that's just reality. The hash rate's continuing to churn higher. There continues to be adoption. You can't ignore adoption metrics when you're talking about an asset that I haven't said in a few weeks is essentially an option on its adoption. Future adoption, its own future adoption. That's right. So as long as that, that is your, until that model is broken, you have to assume it's still there. Now, there are some lunatics out there that talk about S-curves and power laws

which say, well, it should be whatever. You can say whatever you want. We are right now somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% below where you would think that that model would say it's worth. It was 35% low in September of 23. You can't ignore that. That doesn't exist in any other crypto. there are some that have real that have real cash flows i mean you could argue and that that get distributed like bnb you know as long as finance is healthy and doing well you can make that argument but that's done very well and yes it's fallen in line with everything else but it's still it still looks healthy but you can't the problem with with looking at crypto as 21 million or hell even 200 i would go so far as to say 10 is you have to distinguish

between the fundamentals and there are fundamentals or you can just say bitcoin and everything else what you said or just say bitcoin and everything else to varying degrees many many times i got i got a i got a phone on that one david's sick those few little lessons i learned was number one was for this one was just translate praise that bitcoin god i say pass the ammunition because it's going down and then another thing i learned from charlie d francesca charlie d some you might remember him. He was in the first market wizards. I remember him from the trading pits. His key quote was, all that matters is what's on your, was on, as on your statement. Now we get the statements real time. This is before the statement. I'm just telling you that this

asset's going down is going to continue to go down. It might go down a real lot. The whole space, which is like the total market camp of Shibuino and Dogecoin. It's still $30 billion. You can take that down to $30, which flushed it out. To me, this is what the process is starting. So I'm looking at now, I'm putting in that inflection point here. Now, obviously, any type of crypto, So just to recover, you need the stock market to go up first. Now, I'm pointing out, we might just have that 5% drop into the year end. And that's the thing is just getting started. That's my fair.

So if you look at the five-year chart, and that's what's telling you Bitcoin should be at 50, since the money supply is essentially doubled in that period of time, why is that not relevant when that is? Because there was one cryptocurrency in 2009. Now there's 27 million. There's unlimited supply these things. I know you say it's different. We not have the same debate again. We got to point out that's what's happening.

So I'll point out one thing. So I appreciate the push back on the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. You should push back on it, partly because I'm biased because I help create it. The thing I like about it is part of we created is it's market cap. It's top 12, but it caps at 35%. So that means it's 70% Bitcoin Ethereum. Almost every other index is not market cap. The one I have right next to it is the market vector is a 100 index.

It does not cap. of its market cap, which means about 70% is Bitcoin. So why bother? I mean, because Bitcoin is a different asset than the rest of crypto. That's the short answer. Guys, I don't think we're ever, I don't think we're ever sorting this one. And so we are the next 10 minutes. And I want to talk about one more thing specifically. Okay, James, go ahead. And the point I was trying to get to before all of this was that we're not on a four-year cycle anymore. You know, Dave, I appreciate the the hash rate uh you know differential because that is that is a good point um but let's face it bitcoin is the leading barometer for global liquidity and there's just nothing has been like it

it's been it's been the tip of it for a long time here for many years you can and you just just study michael howells uh reports and understand how and why that works and so i look we what you've what what mike says is absolutely true that we could have a market drawdown here whether or not bitcoin has already front run that or will go down with it another 10 percent 15 percent because of it up to debate yeah whether or not that's me before the show he said smart money would be selling socks to buy bitcoin here to exactly that example but go exactly the point inside are selling a dog is very very high that's right and that's always a really good indicator but but i do want to one point on the stock market that's important.

Yeah. There are lots of people making an absolutely horrendously bad analogy. Actually, there's two hugely bad analogies that are being made. Okay. The two are comparing what's going on in various companies to Enron and comparing various companies going on to Global Crossing and WorldCom. Okay. There are terrible analogies, and I will tell you why.

It's, Enron was fraud, pure and simple. Straight up. If there's fraud in any of the MAG 7 or any of the high flyers, yeah, they're going to get crushed. Hold on. Hold on to that for a second. The reason that the reason that Wall Street and hedge funds got nervous last week was because of that interview that Sam Altman did that completely dismissed any questions about revenue without and just. what's his name who was a gun like Gershner he said he said tell me your shares yeah Gersner who was yeah Gersner was interviewing he said look something like I've got a million people lining up who want myself the reason that that hit a note and they hit a raw note for investors in who have been around the block who remember this who were sitting at their desk when they had the Enron call

on and Jeff Skilling he he he responded. to an analyst question with listening little asshole and you could like the entire street went silent you everybody was like I remember and Enron just like we're like my my my my head's manager at the time very fair point but okay I mean at the time we worked across the desk and said do we have any exposure in the book to Enron anywhere get it off the like get it out now like you could see it selling in real time as like It was nuts. So that's true.

And that was the same feeling that I got watching that interview. Well, that's a very fair point, James. Yeah, the corollary, the one that everybody here will remember is when CZ tweeted about FTT token and Carolyn Ellison went on Twitter and said, I'll buy it all from you for $20. Right. Oh, yeah. You're right. So, but the difference is this is Sam Altman in a private company. and the question of how much of their CAP-X is locked in

and how much of their CAP-X is in the price. So if Open AI went- When you answer a question with, we've done the research and we see a lot of revenue, that's not an answer. Right. But here's the difference. X-AI, the various Chinese companies,

Google, and Microsoft aren't making those statements. Okay, well, there's something I want to talk about with us that we're trying to get to here. Because this is important when we're talking about risk or risk-on and risk-on. and where the market's heading. Peter Thiel dumped his entire Nvidia position worth over a hundred million. He also sold, I believe, 75-ish percent of all of his Tesla. Bill Gates Foundation sold 65 percent of their Microsoft last time I checked. That was his company for $8.8.8 billion.

But on the flip side, Mr. Cash himself, Warren Buffett, bought Google. Right, bought Google. So here's the thing is for Nvidia and, you know, and Open AI, the problem is the perception and the just the the sheer amount of complexity around these special purpose vehicles that people don't understand they're like wait it this revenues come from that revenue like how is that working is it double counting the revenue how's this working and to not answer the question is the problem right but but it would happen with Enron it's effectively what happened on the street that day when he said listening to a little asshole rather than actually answering a question and that was the end of Enron that would literally mark the end of it that was

It's it. You're 100% right. And as far as Open AI is concerned, and Sam Altman, I would, I don't even want to go down that road, but let's just say that it couldn't happen to a nicer guy if it all falls apart. Well, it's just complex, and it's, I have not been able to study it closely enough to understand. There's a huge but. The but is, the difference is, and the WorldCom and Global Crossing are more important. When Global Crossing built out and WorldCom was building out all that fiber optic capabilities, they admitted, and everyone knew that at that instant, there was only demand for 5%. As it was, in other words, they built 20 times more fiber than was needed at the time. that time on the theory expecting, demanding, in fact, needing exponential growth for it to even

get to a reasonable capacity utilization in five years. Now, it turns out it took 10 and, you know, et cetera. But those companies went, went boom because people said, well, you cannot get able to deal with that. Five percent. That's insane. Right now, we are so under capacity and underpower in compute in AI. It wouldn't matter if open AI and chat GPT literally vaporized, which is I don't think what's happening. I think his arrogance is his arrogance. It would have crushed his stock price, yes. But they're not getting vaporized anytime soon.

There's still enough capital for them to operate. But even if they didn't, you have X-A-I, multiple others. There are many, many others, and the demand is huge because it found product market fit immediately. And we're under capacity right now. When you see people like Peter Thiel selling, Nvidia, why? Because he remembered. And he was there. He remembers this stuff. It's like, if I don't understand, it's

prices to perfection, you know, it's just too much. So it's a really good point. Does that mean that there's fraud? No, not necessarily. But I remember, I remember a woman I worked with at Carlson Capitol whose husband was at WorldCom and had all his retirement, his retirement in WorldCom. They lost everything vaporized overnight. They lost it. It was awful. So Nvidia right now is trading at a P.E of 53. That's after today's, you know, a little bit of a drop. Fifty-three. It is, it is one thing to buy a growth company at a very high, you know, price to earnings. It is another to buy the world's largest company at a high price to earnings. This is, this is the sort of data that, that instantiates Mike's signal. It's like 2030 earnings, right? I mean, it's crazy. Which,

which might very well grow into it because it's a huge trend. But what if, this is technology, what if other tech creeps in and Invidia doesn't have the hammer lock that it does now. That's right. The bigger you get, the harder it is to grow. It's as simple as that. It's one of those things, trees don't grow to the sky, right? Now, we're all sounding like Mike here. So we're all putting on our mic guys, but, you know, so you can enjoy that.

This is what the market is trying to digest. This is the back of what the market's trying to digest and figure out. Mike, you're scratching your head relentlessly over here. I want to know what you think of the quote-unquote insider selling. but over all of this. Well, when you, that's just, you know, to me, it doesn't matter who sells. It's, there's more sellers. And that's why I'm a lesson I've tried to learn in the market.

Try not to figure out the nuances of the, in it work on the macro bigger picture down. So as you pulled that up, I can show you real quickly. I just pulled up on my screen. You mentioned the video, you know, 50 something times. I pulled at Walmart 40 times earning. Okay, it's a retailer. I'm sorry, but I just not going to be excited about Walmart at the highest P in 24 years. And then I tilt over to I have to just keep pointing out the key thing that you mentioned, James, is Bitcoin is the liquidity indicators.

It's one atopous one. If you overlay it with gold, it's a much better indicator. And you know, I've been looking at this chart, Bitcoin to gold ratio has broken down. And my point is, I fully expect to continue breaking down. I mean, I have to admit, I got tripped up a little bit before Trump was elected, but now it's below those levels. And it's the key thing is if you want an indication now, it's where markets are going now. I just say sometimes it's best to panic first. And that's what's happening in cryptos.

I say any type of bid, hit it. And I say, and I hear you. And I get it. And that is a choice for people, whether the long term, short term, whatever it is. But long term, here's what I, here's the whole, here's the punchline, what I was trying to say about we're out of the four year cycle. We're now on a liquidity cycle. The liquidity has been, has been tight for a while here.

And, you know, even though global liquidity, liquidity is expanding. It's been a little bit tight here. And next year, I just cannot see liquidity not expanding next year. So here's out. I don't see it. One key thing. Stock market going down. The number one source of liquidity on the planet. Biggest amount in history is the U.S. stock. In the tip of that iceberg is cryptos. And the tip of that iceberg is micro strategy. And it's already broken down. It's a bare market. So to me, this is the beginning. That's my job. It's a look forward. So I think this is a, all going to pan out by the end of the air. If it doesn't, then I'm going to have to eat

something, eat some crow. But it's all pointing that way. Right. And I do agree that there's a lot of uncertainties of questions about where the Fed is poised or where they're, how they are positioned and what they're going to do next month. There's a big, there's a big question. Okay. So we're stopping QT. They've already said it. When do they, when do they start adding reserves? We don't know. Is that going to be QE? No, it's going to be QE, not QE. It's going to be, you know, like short term treasury, short, short term T bill kind of purchases just to keep more liquidity in the system. It's going to be more like a steady stream than than a fire hose, you know, but when does the fire hose come? I don't know. Does it

have to have a market breakdown to occur? I don't know. Does it have to have a credit event to occur? I don't know. But if anything, any of those things do occur, it's coming. There's just no way around it, it's math. And this is where you and I, you and I are aligned on so much of all of this, but one of the things that we're not aligned on is it's not the Fed has learned their lesson. There's no lesson to learn. It's over. The math is the math. There's no way that can avoid having to create more liquidity. There's just no way. And if you, that's the question. Do you believe that they're going to just draw liquidity out of the system, let the stock market crash, like everything crashed and then deal with the fallout? My answer is no, especially

because next spring we're getting a government, a chairman of the Fed that's going to be a lot less antagonistic to this administration than the current one. So let's remember who appointed the less chairman of the Fed. Mr. Trump, what you get happens when you get into that position. You do not want to go down in history of. Not everybody, not everybody. It doesn't remember. It doesn't remember doing it though. Look at what, look at what this happened. Yeah. Like, look, not everybody keeps a relationship with Trump, you know, and he had, Trump has been hammering this guy for now. It's been years. And so, you know, he's beaten down. He made him look like a little boy when he was standing in the construction site and he handed him that, that piece of paper and said, you're over. But like,

it was just, it was, you know, if that was me and I was, I was the chairman of the Fed, that would be, that would be humiliating. and infuriating. It doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is self-interest. And the self-interest now for getting to, for avoiding a impeachment two-year cycle from enraged, you know, leftists, the only thing that matters is the midterms. That he'll probably, may very well lose anyway, but he's not going to do it with, with, with, with any bullets left in the fringing, you know, any arrows left in the river.

They're all, yeah. He's going to fire. every bullet and if you don't understand that you're not paying attention so you're not understanding here's what you're missing if i were him i would do exactly here's what you're missing the number one issue in the last election even the one before was cost of living in inflation if you pack the fed you get them the ease to get the stock market to keep going up and those 10% and the 20% who make more money and the rest of people who really vote for him are deep in inflation you're going to lose the midterms and the next election too it's inflation is all that matters now

the stock market's the key thing and Trump has just found the lose lose Mike the correlation the stock market and the CPI is virtually non-existent over the only if you go go back to 1928 29 it's not no no no sorry false last 25 years five years of that 25 have we had anything other than negative real rates we had a massive that's right stock market it's basically think of it is a waterfall, a water flow, a big stream, and they basically say, let's push all this inflation into assets away from consumer inflation and do things that are consumer deflationary. The far bigger worry are tariffs and the lack of ability to onshore and the lack of ability to produce. The supply side is where they're going to focus. All their efforts

are going to focus. They may fail. I'm not saying they're going to succeed, but I'm telling you that the school of thought that's running this administration believes what I just said to be true. And they're finding out the hard way when you put in a person in the position where the whole rest of legacy is going to depend on their name getting this right like Volker did and Mr. Martin didn't, they're not going to do just what the rest of the Fed may be at first they'll cut, but what's not missed the first. There's a binary model here. First iteration for massive massive liquidity fiscal monetary is the stock market has to go down. That's the way it works. Let's get through that first iteration first. Okay. Well, you know what? And then we go to the next binary model. is, we'll get to see you in 10 months. We'll get to see. So Dave won the first bet. Dave won the first bet when he was Bitcoin going to 15 or 40, I think, right? Something like that. Quietly, Mike smashed us in the second bet where he said, that's right, perform Bitcoin and we just kind of never brought it up. So we need a third bet.

It's all fair. Tiebreaker. I think another way, but when you go through report cards and we should all be accountable, the reality is, is if we think that interest rates aren't going to surprise to the and liquidity isn't going to surprise to the upside, I mean, I think that's going to happen. Now, Bitcoin has been delinked from the stock market over the last few months for reasons that are unique to Bitcoin. That doesn't mean that it's delinked if the stock market drops because there's different sellers.

The sellers who own Bitcoin now will sell if the stock market gets crushed. So there is a dynamic at play here, but time does tend to change these things. I've said this many times. I know we're running, we're way over time. Betas and correlations are notoriously unstable for a reason. And so we have to analyze. You can't interpret the delinking as bullish.

That's all I'll say. And that is true. Listen, even if they all go down, I've made this argument a thousand times go back to March of 2020 and COVID. Bitcoin bottomed under 4,000 right before the stock market, 12 or 13 days, bottomed. Which asset did you want to be in from that bottom? the one that went up 17 next to 70,000 or that doubled. Yeah, right. It'll happen again, but listen, I'm buying all of the dips just in case.

Yeah, I understand. Okay. Well, we have crypto town hall in eight minutes. No, we did. That was great. I think this might have been the most people that were ever watching the show. Certainly close. It's amazing what a market crash will do.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with price here. The four-year cycle debate is never. ending, obviously. But James, I definitely default to there was, there's no cycle. And, you know, the people pointed October 6 as the top when the Reddit post said it would be and that's when it should have topped. But everything else about this has been different. The ETFs made Bitcoin make an all-time high way too early if you believed in the cycle. There was no alt season, which was always a part of the cycle with the filtering down. And 2025 has either been a sideways or bare market when you start zooming back into everything that happened. It's going to be tied more

tied to global liquidity and, and continued adoption. And that's just going to take, that's going to continue to take time, which, you know, that's just, that's just, that's just reality. It's just going to take time till people understand that it's not, you know, one of 10,000 cryptos, that it's the only one. Mike, I'm not sure how we're going to be able to do this when Bitcoin's at 10,000, you know. It's going to be very hard for the three of us. 50, 50 would be brutal enough. All right, guys, we do have to go. Thank you, everybody for to get an incredible show as always and we'll see on crypto town hall in seven minutes we're back for macro monday next monday thanks everybody have a good one let's go let's go