The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin On Edge As Trump’s Policies Rattle Markets! What Comes Next?

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

Markets are flashing warning signs as Bitcoin struggles to gain traction and stocks wobble amid growing concern that Trump’s latest policy moves could trigger a liquidity shock. In this episode we b...reak down the weak BTC price action, rising macro stress, questions around Fed independence, and why traders are suddenly bracing for a potential liquidity dump that could hit both crypto and traditional markets at the same time.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:01 Bitcoin is on edge hanging out at 90,000, seemingly perpetually, while Trump's new policy proposals rattle markets. I don't know if you guys saw this, but Trump posted a truth social of himself as the president of Venezuela. He said that Greenland is going to be ours, whether you like it or not. He floated an idea of not letting institutional investors buy houses anymore and said that for a year we're going to lock in credit card interest rates at 10%. Markets are all over the place, wondering what could possibly come next. We're going to unpack this and everything else in the macro with Mike, James, and Dave right now. It's another macro Monday.
Starting point is 00:00:39 Let's go. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday and happy silver and gold again, all-time high day to those who celebrate. We have a lot to unpack. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Dave, Mike and James right now. Good morning, gentlemen. Mike, I can't even imagine a morning meeting. where you have all these things happening at one time,
Starting point is 00:01:17 and they're all focused on the words of President Trump. I did not have Mike, but there you go. Mike, you're up. Mike, you're muted. Yeah, so I need to take myself off. Should I go through the meeting first, and then we can move on? Because we started with our litigation analyst, Elliot Stein.
Starting point is 00:01:36 Elliot was great. He nailed a lot of the stuff that was happening with all the cryptos and ETFs and stuff. He got that stuff. But he just pointed out, this is just a subpoena. It may not move further. It's difficult to establish Powell intended to lie about the renovations. I mean, that's what they're shooting at. But this could bolster, he thinks from a Supreme Court standpoint,
Starting point is 00:01:56 they looks like they're already leaning towards preserving Fed independence. He said, this could bolster Lisa Cook's pace. And he's the one case. And he said, Tom Tillis, the senator said the independence of the justice part might be a greater question than the Fed. And he says it'd be hard for us in all due conscience to actually. prove any Fed chairman while litigation is under on their on their being you know in this process which might actually this delay the whole process so on one came in on here a key quote was unattended consequences of Fed her quote was Trump antics remember she worked for
Starting point is 00:02:33 Trump in administration one her quote was Powell is angry expects it to backfire on Trump the key thing she pointed out is this is a disorganized White House and obviously Powell explicitly pointed out that Trump's want lower, once lower rates. But she said Powell was clearly angling with we stated, and you said you might show that video later, but she pointed out, now just thinking today, into the data, the CPI coming out this week, and I think it's tomorrow, will actually further rattle the bond market, what was her quote. She thinks the quirks of the recent data means that 2.6 core will pick up.
Starting point is 00:03:06 There was 20 basis points of understatement. She expects the core CPI to be around 0.4 month-a-month. the expectation is for less than that. And the year-of-year core to be 2.8 and the year-year headline would be built with 2.8. Last month was 2.6. So pick up there and expects a month after that, next month, too, February, to also be strong due to shelter. And April and for this, basically continued to April. Ira Jersey pointed out, 420 in that 10-year-old.
Starting point is 00:03:37 We're 419-19 right now. Significant resistance. Next level is around 5 of 440. He does not think we're going to get much above these levels now. His quote was he doesn't expect real yields much above 2%. And he mentioned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He says they have the money to buy the mortgages that Trump mentioned. Michael Caspar, our equity stratage remains quite bullish.
Starting point is 00:03:57 He points out the double digit pace for earnings growth. Energy earnings have been in recession. I think for, I don't think he said 10 quarters. It seems a little bit high. But expects that to pick up and actually maybe lead next year. but everything's generally favorite for stocks from his view. And CPI might be the key number this week. Audrey Child Freeman came on and spoke about the Fed independence
Starting point is 00:04:20 and de-dollarization trend. She's going to expect to continue. Her favorite call is the Aussie dollar. It's still bullish. And I'll save my comments for later. I just want to mention one thing about silver. These kind of moves are awesome if you're in it and you're supposed to be in it years ago.
Starting point is 00:04:35 The other bus have been investing in silver for decades. But when you get moves like this, typically they put in peaks for not years, but decades. So silver can easily get to 100. Gold, the trend is towards 5,000, but just the facts are, it's different.
Starting point is 00:04:49 These highs typically can last four decades. I'll just give you the example of silver. I use this in the meeting. I've been giving silver coins with silver one ounce coins forever to friends, family, guests, and everything. I'm just thinking someday to say they'll put it in a drawer and see it increased 10 times.
Starting point is 00:05:05 But last year, the price of silver at the low was $28 an ounce. That was the same. were closed in 1979. So I see what's out, and I want to mention one key thing I pointed out is on a supply, on any type of model, there's supply going up, demand, the lines pretty down, price and quantity. And when price shifts like this, most parabolic, it shifts its supply demand situation. You saw that's happening in energy going down, saw that happen in grains going down. And I think that's going to be the problem in metals going down next year. So I actually,
Starting point is 00:05:38 this as of yesterday i did recommend outright what recommend i have to tease shorts and bitcoin around here around 94 you know stops above 100 000 and shorts in shorts and copper in a six handle it stops where you define them the difference is bitcoin's the bear market heading lower so you can define your stops easier copper is still a bull market back here i i would find it very difficult to defend a position in either direction on bitcoin at the moment if you're actually looking at it short term i mean it's been locked in, as I said, at 90,000 for so long. But listen, I want to stick to the Fed. I don't want to take for granted that people
Starting point is 00:06:12 know what happened or have seen the video. So I'm just going to play you the video of Fed Chairman Powell. The story is that the DOJ has is investigating Chairman Powell for criminal charges purportedly about the building. Obviously, we all saw the most amazing memeable
Starting point is 00:06:28 clip of all time when Trump and Powell are standing there in their hard hats. The most awkward interaction I've ever seen between two human beings, arguably. Well, now it's gone beyond rhetoric, but Powell's response is all the quiet parts out loud, and I'm actually quite shocked that he actually said this. So let's just watch it really quickly, and then we can get the reactions. Good evening.
Starting point is 00:06:50 One second. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve. Okay, we're going to try that again. Threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi-year. year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader
Starting point is 00:07:24 context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role, the Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.
Starting point is 00:08:01 This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation i have served at the federal reserve under four administrations republicans and democrats alike in every case i have carried out my duties without political fear or favor focused so all right you get the idea um this is fourth turning stuff right here could i just could i just start you know look at it every single time people have tried to even audit the Fed. They can't get political support to do it. We have a, if Fed becomes a lightning rod issue, then they still won't be able to. But the truth is,
Starting point is 00:08:49 the Fed is the most unaccountable power in the United States. And it's not even close. And so, you know, while I personally tend to feel that, you know, I think Powell is a good person in a sense. I think that he's done under the circumstances a reasonable job. I think that the cutting of rates in the July before the last election was a political hack job. And at that point, his credibility in my eyes went boom. And by the way, his credibility went to boom in a lot of people's eyes, which is, I think, where this is coming from.
Starting point is 00:09:22 You might remember on one of these shows, I actually predicted some version of this that Trump would use that in order to try to push him out. I didn't say it would succeed. And in fact, it's pretty obvious that Mike is right. It's going to backfire. But the real essence of the problem is, and I don't think this will happen, but it should, is will this entire situation create an actual debate, an actual public discourse about why the hell have we made this assumption that an unaccountable group of bureaucrats that are, you know, 900 PhDs basically twiddling their noses and throwing darts at a dartboard? so much for their evidence stuff and i'm going to tee you up james because i know what you think on this
Starting point is 00:10:04 subject uh is is are the people who should be the most powerful people in the american economy because to be to be blunt uh it is insane it makes no sense it's never made sense it should be if if you want to have avid as an as an element of your economic policy okay that's fine but you know that kind of dresses up fiat by by doing what they're doing having the quote independent Fed is putting lipstick on a pig. The Fiat system is still fucked. We still have this notion, I'm sorry for the F-bomb, but we still have this notion that it's okay that we can print money to infinity and have the world's reserve currency and all the other stuff that we talk about. And here we have the Fed who's been behind the curve on every single major decision they've made
Starting point is 00:10:49 for the last, what, 30 years? And with all of that, it's hard not to look at an owl and say, this is a man of integrity standing up to a bully. And so from a rhetorical point of view, he will win in the sense that the Senate in particular is going to be more sympathetic to him. In an actual sense, if you look at the data, there's no reason to think that the amount of money that was spending on the Federal Reserve, the amount of the withholding given the banking system makes any objective sense. People will say it does because they believe that the Fiat system makes sense.
Starting point is 00:11:26 and we should have this. But the truth is, it's all about credibility. So let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, that's, let's, uh, that's, I think he believes that. Um, I think he believes that. Um, I also think that he believes fully in this system that we're in. Now I'll hear, here, uh, that the, uh, here's the first principle why do we even have the fed what are they doing and what's their what is their real function well the real function is to establish and and continue to enhance and emboldened the world's confidence in the u.s dollar why are they doing that they're doing that because the united states
Starting point is 00:12:16 is running massive deficits and they have to continue to float more and more debt and they need a market for that so the the it goes like this congress sets the budget they clearly do not have a way to balance it it's between fraud and just wasteless spending like wasteful and and senseless spending they're not going to balance the budget we've gone through this ad nauseum that's number one the treasury is charged with facilitating that spending so the treasury has to float enough debt in order to continue this charade. And then the Fed is there as the backstop to install confidence in U.S. treasuries and U.S. dollars and to control the flow of the money in a way that they can continue to print it without the entire world revolting and saying, you're printing so much money,
Starting point is 00:13:16 it's worth less and less and less every single year. I don't want to hold these bonds anymore. But we're already seeing cracks in the system with central banks around the world saying, we don't want to hold the U.S. bonds for various reasons. One of those reasons that we've talked again about so much is that they don't trust that the U.S. won't, they won't freeze their assets, kick them off swift. And if they don't do exactly what the United States wants them to do, that was Biden's massive misstep. And then the second one is we don't trust that there's not going to be massive inflation
Starting point is 00:13:49 and massive money printing in the future. and so we're getting out of the U.S. treasuries and buying gold instead. And that was that was Powell's misstep. He printed $5 trillion in 2020. I mean, that was a massive misstep. And he's been trying to recover from that mistake ever since. And so it's not an easy recovery.
Starting point is 00:14:13 I think he has done pretty well like Dave said after that mistake. You know, I mean, it was a big one. And so here we are trying, the Fed is trying to instill confidence and hold that confidence in U.S. dollar that they feel is already breaking. You can see the charts, and I don't have one in front of me, but you can see the charts of central banks holding treasuries versus central banks holding gold. And it exactly. And it is inverted. So that is the problem. And he's going to be fighting that until his last day here in, I believe it's April.
Starting point is 00:14:50 and that's and that's where he's going to be fighting but this is all political theater this is all this is this is the this is for the entire world to see that the fed is pushing back they're pushing back on political pressure they are independent they're making decisions that are going to be the best for the u.s dollar and the us economy and it doesn't matter what the president say and it's it's full theater you've got trump from one side you know hitting Powell saying we're going we're threatening you basically with uh criminal on lying to Congress about the renovation of this multi-billion dollar renovation of federal buildings. Then you've got the other side of Powell hitting back saying,
Starting point is 00:15:31 you just don't like where we've been standing with the interest rates. And we're not going to be bullied into changing our policy just because of the whims of this administration. And so it's full theater. I mean, we're surrounded by theater every single day, but this is like front and center main stage theater. I'm sorry, Scott. What was that?
Starting point is 00:15:53 Full theater, but I can't even imagine what it took for Powell to sit down and decide to actually make this statement and say that the DOJ is being weaponized against him because of his independent decisions on rate policy. I mean, this is like, this is the end of the line. You can't put that shit back on the horse. Wow. Yeah. I mean, it's gotten to this point. That's how broken down communication is in our politics. And that's not, I mean, this is, this is just one spot of where the, where one side can't talk to the other.
Starting point is 00:16:32 And Powell. But it's not supposed to be a sign for Powell. That's what makes this even crazier. It's not like he's going after Joe Biden in an election. Right. Exactly. And that's why, well, I mean, Trump has clearly put him on the other side. I mean, he patted him on the head, basically.
Starting point is 00:16:47 when he was staying in the construction area of that federal building and, you know, admonishing him for overspending. And so that was clearly humiliating, you know, for Powell, much smaller guy, standing in their suit and a hard hat looking very uncomfortable. And Powell basically takes him by the small of the back like you would have, you know, a lady to go to the next room. And it's like, it was, wow. That was truly humiliating.
Starting point is 00:17:18 I mean, he's a master of humiliating people. And so that's where we are. And, you know, but go back to first principles. This is all theater. And it's all for the benefit of the world to think, oh, don't worry, the Fed's independent. But let's be clear. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points. And they cut them twice, basically, before the last election.
Starting point is 00:17:43 And then they just held steady from there on for another. year. I mean, you saw what the 10-year bond did when they did that because it was the wrong move. But they did it to basically get ahead of the election and say, hey, we have conquered inflation. Everything's great. The economy is holding steady. And we feel it's the right time to lower rates here because we have tackled inflation. Of course, inflation has been persistent ever since because of the massive misstep that they made. long before that, years before that, and printing $5 trillion. That's my take on it.
Starting point is 00:18:20 Mike, you get your shot here at what's going on between Powell and Trump. Well, I think, let's reiterate first what James is saying. It's absolutely positive. It's Trump theater. But what's happening, I think, now is what markets are figuring out and know from the very beginning. Certainly precious metals are going to this human being has been so emboldened. His personality is he will not stop until something. breaks. This is the things he's so emboldened about doing. We see the aggressiveness with what just
Starting point is 00:18:49 happened in Venezuela and pushing back on the Fed. And what's think about some generations from the future. Laws will change to prevent these things because some of these things he's pushing back on laws are put in because it's the right thing to do. You have to have an independent Fed. And pushing back on Dave a little bit, I just remember reading The Courage to Act by Ben Bernacki in 2009 after the crisis. I was so grateful the Fed did the right thing there then. And James pointed out, they did do the wrong thing during COVID. Now, we all potentially could have died. They kept, they should have kept pump, they should have raised rates in 2021 a year before
Starting point is 00:19:21 for one key reason, the stock market needed a new high. It told them inflation is coming back. Everything's fine. And I think from the future, we're going to look back and say, yeah, the Fed's going to watch the stock market a lot more because it matters. And they've hinted at it. But to me, it's now matters. All that matters, we can talk and complain all we want, but what does it mean for
Starting point is 00:19:36 markets is what matters? That's why I want to go with this. And to me, the bottom line, a big picture for me and everything with, obviously my commodity, background. We've never had a rally like we're having in the metals, most notably gold, with such a high velocity, with stock market volatility staying low. Now, obviously, it's been a broken record forever, but that's another key thing we all completely assume. We assume Trump's going to be emboldened until something breaks. We all can get that. We can see it. Market's showing that. And I just don't think anything matters until we have a normal 10% correction in the stockpark,
Starting point is 00:20:07 and then we can reasset. So I look at it as a trading opportunity, this is a year where volatility the stock market almost is guaranteed to go up. And so you look at as a trader account, come in flat, sitting on off-risk-off assets like treasuries and look for opportunities. To me, you've already had an opportunity to sell Bitcoin at $494,000. That, to me, is a worthy short. We've had an opportunity to sell copper above six. That, to me, is a worthy short.
Starting point is 00:20:29 Where they go, I don't know, where you stop? Very simple. $100,000 Bitcoin, copper staying above $6,000. How you manage it? Now, that's the hard part. I'll let the traders do that. I'm just a sayer. And then let's look at the rest of the markets.
Starting point is 00:20:38 We're so overdue for 120-day volatility in S&B-500, just to popped in there's 17% it's historical average and it's running closer to 11% or so. To me that's the amount now it's just finding a reason to do that.
Starting point is 00:20:50 Like silver is up almost it's four and a half dollars premarget here. It's up six percent and exactly did the exact same thing in 2011. I was long at then. I wasn't old enough to be long
Starting point is 00:21:04 at 1979 or 1973 but it's got good fundamental reason. My point is some of us have been invested in silver for decades and talked about these fundamental reasons I remember when silver was just silver solar demand was less than 10% of total demand. Now it's pumping in closer to 2030 or 25%. That is just things it took, but they take forever to kick in.
Starting point is 00:21:24 And the point I have to remind you is what you're seeing and hearing from people who are bull of silver now, things have been pointed in case for years and they're just kicking in. The key thing to remember as a trader, as an investor, when prices go parabolic for fundamental reasons, it shifts the balance. And that's what's going to happen. And it's just a question of when for where. So I'm not going to recommend any type of short and silver or gold yet. Now, obviously, you're saying I just did in copper.
Starting point is 00:21:49 I just did in in Bitcoin because I think I have the edge. I still think silver can get to $100 this year. I still think gold can get to $5,000. But from a long-term investment standpoint, buying and holding these metals at this level has proven wrong thing to do because of the elasticity. Don't ever forget the elasticity of price. People can bring silver supply from their underwear drawers, and they will. And history they always have.
Starting point is 00:22:12 So looking forward to market what this means for markets, my base case akin to last year was overweight gold and overweight treasuries. Now, kind of not on that gold camp anymore, just overweight treasuries. And right now I consider myself short cryptos and short copper. I'm not a trainer, but that's the way to look at it. I think we should break this into two pieces. Let's talk about gold and silver before we talk about Bitcoin. The first thing to keep in mind is this theater that we're talking about in the U.S.
Starting point is 00:22:41 is there's geopolitical aspect to gold and silver. And you can't ignore it. If you do ignore it, then you got a problem. Because we've created a ton of more dollars. We've created a ton more fiat currency in the rest of the world. And the question is, there's a bifurcated sort of buying in both. There is central bank buying in the case of gold, and there is industrial buying in the case of silver.
Starting point is 00:23:07 In the central bank case, the only sellers at scale enough, for that is massive in the market. So it is very hard to accumulate. It has a monetary premium, but there are speculators that are on the other side of this. And so you look at the most obvious chart, which we've been talking about for weeks, months even, which is foreign governments replacing treasuries as they're backing with gold. And that's just an actual, that's a freight train. And there is no reason to believe that that's going to change, like none, zero. Certainly not for the next three years that Trump was president. I mean, he's doing everything he can to give people reason not to buy U.S.
Starting point is 00:23:48 treasuries outside of the United States, you know, in terms of foreign governments and central banks. Not to mention the fact that the Trump name is associated with Bitcoin, which I think is one of the reasons why Bitcoin isn't a beneficiary of all of this. And as a result, that's a big. So that's gold. Now, silver is something slightly different. There are two factors at play here on the buying side. There is, as you say, the industrial deficit, which has been structurally in massive deficit for five years,
Starting point is 00:24:18 and that deficit is increasing. There are trends that are different, and the marginal change of having even more shorts, more of a shortfall where the only thing they can do is wait for it to get out of an underwear draw, but smelting capacity is running full out is a problem. So we have more new battery technology, and batteries are becoming more and more. Solid state for cars, yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:45 Solid state for cars, more solar, et cetera. There's more electronification going on in the global economy than any point in history, and silver is the world's best conductive metal. So that demand is increasing, not decreasing. At the same time, the revival of the notion of silver as money or value, is very big outside the United States and starting to get big in the United States. If you pull up, if you go to appmex.com,
Starting point is 00:25:13 which is the largest dealer of silver coins, I just did right now, I'm staring at it. Do you want to buy an American Eagle silver coin? Now, we think that the price is $84. They're saying as low as $98. Yeah, if you actually want to get your hands on physical gold, you're paying over $100. Physical silver.
Starting point is 00:25:34 I mean, excuse me. Yeah, you can, you're, you're, you're, paying a tremendous premium. And the discount about which you can sell it at is obviously shrinking. Now, we talked about this a couple of weeks ago and I said after the CME raised their margin requirements that you guys all have it wrong, that it's not going to prick the bubble, that in fact it's going to make market makers have a much more difficult time hedging. What is the second source of demand in gold and silver? And that is speculation. through the contract for differences market.
Starting point is 00:26:05 So I'm going to take my victory lap on this one and say this is exactly what I expected to happen, and we're not even close to done yet. And I think that people need to understand that speculators are flying into this stuff, and inevitably, they're going to get hurt. Whenever you start buying at a 10 or 15% premium, at some point, that premium is going to vanish, and you're going to lose two ways. You're going to lose because you top-picked it and because the premium is going to vanish.
Starting point is 00:26:32 But that time isn't now, right? It's still relatively early in the process. And it's important to understand that, and I've said this a million times, but just don't ignore the fact that culturally, for thousands of years, the Chinese people have believed silver is money. And yes, China as a government got hurt by adopting this policy in the past. But to think that that's going to change, it's not. And it's one of those things. Oh, eventually. No, price.
Starting point is 00:27:02 You're missing one key thing of there's a supply demand model and has one key metric that puts it all the other price. You're missing one key thing, Dave. When you talk about these past things that are known knowns that have been in the markets for decades, definitely the last couple years, those have been long bullish metals, is once the price shifts, the fundamental shift. That's my point. And just there's time to be overweight and long and hold these things. Like those silver coins, you said, I've been giving those out for a year. Now finally they're jumping. I looked like an idiot for, I'm giving out for decades.
Starting point is 00:27:33 Finally, they're jumping. Now I'm just pointing out. Be careful with that fundamental mirror. It will shift. Just the reason why cryptos are going down, the right reasons. Energy is going down. Why the reasons grains are going down is because the price went up too much. To put an accident on that point, I agree with you in a sense here, Mike, in that,
Starting point is 00:27:51 look, it's the same thing happened with the Bitcoin. You had, oh, geez that were waiting for 100,000 to sell. And a million coins came out, or more than a million came out in 2025 because of it. And that's why it's, you know, been grinding down to 90,000 here. But Dave is right. There's a different fundamental demand for silver. And it's not like this is the problem. And yeah, you can have people come in with the silver from their sock drawers
Starting point is 00:28:17 because they have all these coins that were given to them that were worth $15 or $20 just a couple of years ago. And now they're worth $80. And maybe they'll take them down to, you know, the exchange and, sell them. But to ramp up the mining is not, it's not a simple process. This takes time. They can't just turn on, you know, more mining to meet the demand from all of the, from all of, you know this, Mike. So it does take time. So the question is, is there enough, are there enough issues with people, with the markets and economically and politically
Starting point is 00:29:00 for people to keep moving into gold and silver as a flight to safety on top of all of the demand for solar and now solid state batteries for EVs. Like where does that, where does that even out?
Starting point is 00:29:16 And long, long, long, long term, what do you want to be holding? Again, these are trades and I do appreciate the way that you lay this out for people to understand where we are in the cycle to best protect yourself in this moment in the cycle. But that's more of a trade that you're talking about than a long-term holding. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:37 I mean, Dave, I think Dave's very good to lay out the fundamentals. But I think Mike makes one of my favorite points of all time that I make about markets all the time. Those were the same fundamentals when silver was $25. That's right. So that's not $24.60 or wherever at all-time high today because the fundamentals changed. start talking about them as a case for coping our way up to the cop. But it's the same with Bitcoin and crypto. No, you know, all the NFTs and defy and all the things that we saw bubbles in. We would see the bullish narratives that were no different than when price was down. All of a sudden coming out,
Starting point is 00:30:12 and by the way, it works the same way on the way down as well. I would offer a slightly different take. I think that the speculation side is the bigger chunk than the fundamental side. And certainly with gold and I think silver is just catching a bid because of gold. So I think Silver's just riding the coattails like Ethereum would have with Bitcoin in the past. But I think that people don't want the dollar A, but B, they're starting to see things like this more often, like Donald J. Trump posting himself as the president of Venezuela. I don't know if you guys saw that, but if anyone would- Do we just go back to one thing? You know, look, I want to be very, very, you know, laser-sharp on this. My long-term view of silver relative to gold is that silver will outperform and we will
Starting point is 00:30:58 end up in the 30s as a ratio. I've said that last week. I will continue to say that. That's where we were in the 70s. There's never been an economic reason for silver gold, silver, which is 20 to 1 in the earth's crust, it's actually 19, the same above ground, et cetera. So all those, the sock drawers, all the other crap, you know, the same thing is true with gold jewelry. You know, I will tell you, I believe, the silver will be in the 30s versus gold and it could actually easily correct back to the multi-thousand-year mean you know we like to go back 10 years later as we call that old season well i just believe that there is no reason that that gold should have a premium over silver uh at some point 100 years from now it won't happen because i don't think gold will be the
Starting point is 00:31:45 monetary standard i think it will be a monetary standard i think bitcoin will have its place in the the monetary standard. I think that is that is my long-term view. Now, relative to inflation, relative to dollars created, because we're talking about dollars as the denominator, uh, do I think that we're going to be much lower than this when all of this stuff is done? Probably not. Will we see a much larger rally than people think and then a much bigger bust than people like who follow what I'm saying thinks? I don't know what just happened with the looks like I went up and down. Can you guys still hear me? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And my, Mike will at some point be correct.
Starting point is 00:32:21 I don't know at what price to blow off top in silver will reach before we see a 30 to 40% correction. But that is baked in the cake for all the reasons Mike said. So I want to be, it's important because people listen to this and they go, oh, great. I'm going to buy silver on leverage. You're going to go to their contract for differences broker, 50X lever, play it out. Long's you're getting that to squeeze. If you do that and it goes to 125, you might be in great shape. But if he keeps levering up, which most idiots will do, then when it goes from 125 back down to 90, they're all wiped out.
Starting point is 00:32:55 And so there is going to be enormous volatility. And that is what you're seeing. And at the exact same time that this is happening, Bitcoin's 30-day projected volatility turned down again. And it back down to even the implied volatility is down to lows of the recent, you know, basically decade. and its realized volatility is way below that implies are way above. I mean, Bitcoin's actual realized volatility is unbelievably low. And so ask yourself what is happening. Oh, by the way, one more fun fact for you,
Starting point is 00:33:29 because I think that when we're talking about all this bullshit, you know, if you look at the yield curve right now, it is fascinating. James probably knows where I'm going. Right now, the market is pricing in virtually nothing. One month to two year is 10 basis point, not even 10 basis points of cuts. One month to three years is not even is what is it, two basis points of cuts. Two in three years.
Starting point is 00:33:58 It's basically flat. And in five years it's flat. Basically, it's four basis points. Right. And five years is flat. So basically the market is looking at this saying Fed Shmed, Trump's not going to be able to do what he's, what he's blunderbussing about. And so understand when you trade off of the, quote, volatility of Trump and Powell, the market's already decided that nothing is going to happen, that the Fed is not going to be a tool of this administration. But it's not going to cut.
Starting point is 00:34:27 When I was making before, I mean, I think we all agree that gold and silver, well, specifically gold tend to sniff out what's happening underlying, right? I mean, gold. And a natural yield curve, you know, you can't really go out further than two years. to be looking at where you expect the Fed to be going because then you're demanding premium beyond that. That's right. Dave, let me finish. You can take your political view and throw it out the window. I don't care because there's facts.
Starting point is 00:34:58 And I think when people see an unstable United States, they tend to want to buy things like gold. Right? And you have obviously, like I just showed you, for anyone who is arguing with me that, you know, it's for the people of Venezuela. And I'm like, the guy's literally posting pictures of himself as the president. of Venezuela. And then let's hear what he had to say about Greenland. Okay. Like if you're a foreign government, wait, I'm going to play the video. If you're foreign government yet, I might talk about that. But right now, we are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not,
Starting point is 00:35:30 because if we don't do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland. And we're not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor. Okay. I would like to make a deal, you know, the easy way. But if we don't do it the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way. I'm sorry, like there's, you're described. We're agreeing, Scott. Yeah. We're absolutely agreeing.
Starting point is 00:36:03 What I'm trying to tell you is the market is right now pricing in the following scenario. The market is pricing in. Republicans losing the midterms, meaning that what happens in the next year, which will be increasingly. less and less of real market, you know, legislation or changes. Markets like gridlock. And the expectation is you're going to get two years of impeachment shit in the House and
Starting point is 00:36:27 gridlock. And the administration, basically whatever they're going to do is going to be done through executive action, executive action only. They're going to get nothing done. Markets tend to like that. And that tends to be, we may personally not like that for a lot of different reasons, but markets tend to like it. And that is the odds on favorite.
Starting point is 00:36:44 The odds on favorite is that. Trump's not going to be able to get his Fed to be able to do what he wants them to do because that's what they're pricing in. And it's just important to understand that because when you start, there are people out there this morning or less over the weekend saying, oh my God, markets are going to do this, markets are going to go crazy one way or the other. And yet we're seeing another muted opening. Why?
Starting point is 00:37:05 We'll be really interesting to have to see happen here, Dave, as if Trump floats a million dollars per per citizen of Greenland. I think you're still in either vote to secede and be and fold into the United States, secede from Denmark and fold into the United States. And then we get a bidding war. That would be that would be interesting. But look, I mean, he does say these things that are quite inflammatory. But you can't discount them because he then goes through with some of it.
Starting point is 00:37:42 Yeah, but I did it in Venezuela. So I don't think people are discounting it so dramatically anymore, but you can't have a conversation about the price of gold without having a conversation about what foreign governments are looking at when they see Trump's statement. Can I pivot? I think that's a key thing. Let's remember the back row big picture here. We have the second largest economy on the planet decisively enabling a war in its best customer's background. Mr. Z, the unlimited friendship. I just remember the Maltaf-Ripentoff agreement from 1939, I think.
Starting point is 00:38:14 That's accelerating, but they're losing dramatically. And to have the world's largest economy provides the security for all of Europe, to look for a greater security environment, it makes sense. Now, obviously, we're using Trump's methods, but the bottom line is this aggressing group is losing, too. They lost Syria. They've lost Gaza. They lost Venezuela. And now they're potentially losing on a global trade war.
Starting point is 00:38:43 And the thing about Trump is his methods, love them or hate him, but I think he's pointing at what's happening. The world's getting there is a third world war going on. That's part of the reason golden silver are rallying. U.S. stock market hasn't figured out yet. I don't think U.S. bond market has figured it out yet. But maybe Trump has. Let's remember that macro that's happening. It's not getting better yet.
Starting point is 00:39:03 Now, if we had some kind of major detente right away, a ceasefire in Ukraine, sure, that would matter. But every day that just gets worse. At some point, I keep waking up to hear about fall. out, nuclear fallout. That's how bad things are getting. And that's right. But I want, exactly, but that's just a normal, that's a cycle that's happening globally. And it's all because of two human beings unlimited friendship. Now, if that cracks, I don't know, but that to me is the macro here, but then prices adjust.
Starting point is 00:39:32 They look forward. And that was a key thing I was pointed. I feel the conversations we're having right now very similar to what we had in cryptos last year. Yes, McGlone was wrong for months. And then finally that kicked in. That price, that sentiment I've always seen from the selling when you're yelling kicked in. Now, I was buying when they're crying for 19, 2000 and 21, 22, and 23 in gold, saying it's going to go above 2000.
Starting point is 00:39:55 So I was definitely wrong for a long time. But now it's gone that, gone shift. I have to look at a prudent running managing standpoint. When everybody's yelling, you got to be careful. And that's where we are now. That's why I stay away from markets and look for opportunities. So right now I just signed two great ones so far. And it's like told you, shorts in Bitcoin, short in cryptos, any one of them.
Starting point is 00:40:15 You pick which one you want, maybe a broad market. And shorts and copper. And the bottom line is the first, what's the first signal to be wrong in that? Okay, they close above your levels for a couple days. Or you get just final, you'll pick up and say the VIX goes to 20. We know it's going to get there at some point. Say the 120-day-mover and average gets at 17. It's just a madden to win.
Starting point is 00:40:32 And then you move on the next trade. But right now it's a good time to be away and not just be overweight and long things, except, well, everything's been going up. So to me, the macro is in heating up every day. And the key thing that's missing is stock market volatility is way too low for this environment. Okay. So I'm going to, you basically contradicted yourself. So I'm trying to figure out why.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Because if you said short silver or start legging into shorts. Copper. I said copper. Did I say copper and big coin? I said if you said short silver if you're letting in the stops. At six bucks. I get it. I'm not going to argue about.
Starting point is 00:41:10 copper. I do think you're wrong there only because inflation adjusted copper at this price is, I mean, it's at the high end of its range, but nothing crazy. And it is such an incredibly strong predictor, King Copper, as you called it, of real economic growth. Our GDP is going to come in much higher than people think. We are deregulating. And we'll see. Well, we'll see. We'll see. I don't, I'm not bullish copper. I'm kind of neutral there. I think maybe slightly on the short side, because I think you're right, it's a little overheated, but it's not a big deal. Silver is definitely overheated. I think it will get more overheated as time goes on.
Starting point is 00:41:46 Gold, same thing. And the markets will have a crescendo. There will be a blow-off top. I don't think that these moves are the blow-off top yet, but we're closer. I think we're closer to a blow-off top than we're closer to the other side. But at the same time, with all of that said, when you look at Bitcoin, and since this is macro Monday, we are talking about. crypto, we are talking about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is exactly the opposite of that. It is literally stuck
Starting point is 00:42:14 in amber. It is at a price with its lowest volatility in a decade. And what you're seeing is smart money accumulating and people selling out and traders getting rinsed. You're seeing rinse repeat. Traders lever up when they think it's going to break out. It doesn't. They get crushed. and you see it time after time to the point where we're seeing interest on YouTube, we're seeing searches, we're seeing every single sentiment indicator is bottoming. Is it bottomed? Probably not because you never anticipate the bottom.
Starting point is 00:42:50 By the way, YouTube views on crypto content are at the lowest since January 2021. And people are fighting over the X Twitter album saying they're not, algorithm saying they're not seeing X content. That's another data point to everything. It is. So prove it. So prove it. Scott wasn't admitted to it.
Starting point is 00:43:09 It was that they were. But this, but people were up in arms about that. I think it makes a hell of a lot of sense to not have an algorithm. He could absolutely, Mike could absolutely be, I 100% agree with Mike that if we have a drawdown in the market,
Starting point is 00:43:23 and I've been telling my investors this, we have a 20, 30% drawdown on the market. Bitcoin is going with it. It is not going to sit here at $90,000. Like everybody is understanding. is going to correlate to one along with gold and silver unless it's for some un, you know, foreseeable reason. And Mike is right about some sort of escalation of nuclear threats, then that, that, all bets are off and maybe gold goes to, you know, 10,000. So who knows.
Starting point is 00:43:53 But that, that is a risk for sure. But I agree with you, all things being equal here, Dave, the sentiment is abysmal. But now ask themselves the question. But let's just let me say one thing. When you say smart money, Dave, and you're being selectives, I would have to propose to you the smart money has been getting short in the leverage money, the leverage money, Bitcoin, for months now. And they're making money and they're doing it cost effectively and they're doing
Starting point is 00:44:23 a risk-adjusted doing well. So smart money, if you're saying buying Bitcoin has been wrong for a little while. The people who bought Bitcoin a long time ago, like everybody in this call, did very well. A lot of them are getting out. Let's be careful with using those views. The bottom line is prove it. Show the strength. That's why I say very simply. I look at it as an ex-trader.
Starting point is 00:44:40 All right, you gave me the first week of the year, gave me a chance to sell at 94. Thank you very much. Stop my out at 100. Stay above there for a couple days. Boom, prove it. Otherwise, look at the market's telling you. We have a bare flag volatility very low.
Starting point is 00:44:52 The means it typically breaks down. We've already had the first head fake. He gave you a chance to sell. That's technical. But the thing is Bitcoin is all technical because there's no basis. Now, I trade copper futures. There's a basis. I find a mental.
Starting point is 00:45:03 Wait, wait, wait, wait. What do you mean? I had to you off on that. I knew that would see up my goat by the case. How did you get that there's no bait? Because when you trade, I'm coming of futures background, and you always trade basis. There's a basis for treasuries, for corn, for copper, for all commodities. It's the underlying commodity and you trade that basis.
Starting point is 00:45:22 Now, that's what's going to happen in tokenization. There's going to be a basis for all those tokens. You'll be able to trade the base for gold of jewelry? No, the basis for gold futures. is the gold contract, the physical gold. The basis for Bitcoin is there isn't one. That's why the only basis for the whole crypto space are crypto dollars. And that's my point is as we tokenize, as the market sees that on the same chain.
Starting point is 00:45:44 We won't get into that debate. Okay. Let's just go with this. All you have to know is that we're still in the same period of time. We're relative to its own network, Bitcoin is the cheapest it's ever been. That's the basis that I care about. But yes, if you have the Petership view that nothing virtual has any inherent value, then fine. You know, you can't convince somebody who believes that.
Starting point is 00:46:08 So let's just move that aside. Let's understand something. When we're talking about stock markets, your own analysts thinks that 2026 will be a good year for the market because corporate earnings will go higher. I tend to agree with them. Consensus. If you don't see a massive correction, if, in fact, the trend toward corporate profits being at an all-time high relative to GDP continues, then there's no reason to believe that.
Starting point is 00:46:34 So let's unpack this. James, I agree with you. If we get a massive correction in the stock market, and look, we could easily get a tantrum because it's saying Trump did. It happened a year ago. I mean, hell, in April, what happened? The stock market went to plume. Bitcoin dropped 30%. What happened was Trump got moderated. The stock market went back up. We've been at all-time highs. and Bitcoin at first recovered and then stuck in its current range. So there's a lot that's going on here, but you do have to gain theory out what happens if the stock market doesn't break. What happens if financialization doesn't end.
Starting point is 00:47:06 What happens in that scenario? And that's the scenario that I'm talking about, which is we will go. Markets can stay like this. I remember it wasn't even all that long ago. It was not as highter ranges were in now that we've been in for the last two months. But we saw eight months of this. for. One possible scenario is the four-year cycle bros are half right, that we are in crypto winter.
Starting point is 00:47:30 And crypto winter, in this case, is really crypto apathy. And what happens in apathy? The people who are making long-term allocations are just quietly stacking. And the people who are selling are quietly getting out in desperation. And eventually that desperation ends. And when it ends, the number goes up and then you get a very, then you get a change. There's an argument to be made that that there's a whole generation of of investors, traders who were interested in crypto just you know, 12 to 18 months ago are not interested in it now because they can make bets literally from second to second in polymarket. You could be betting on Green Bay or on the, you know, the Bears all the last moment. And you could have made massive money if you were betting on the
Starting point is 00:48:19 bears in the last two minutes of the game. You can't. do that in Vegas. You can do it on your phone now. And that people are out of the, if you want to be on the risk curve, there's, there is availability for you to be on the risk curve everywhere now. It's not just in the crypto market anymore. And so that's right. It's also in the golden silver market. The point that I keep making is outside the U.S., it's also true in the silver market. And a lot. And so you, you're seeing alt season isn't all, all coins. It's, it's precious metals. Yeah, I want to make it, I want to make it clear that I'm talking about alt season,
Starting point is 00:48:55 not about Bitcoin and not about just gold. And, you know, like there's a difference. But the point that I was trying to make is Bitcoin is boring. Bitcoin right now is boring. It's in one of those cyclical downtrends, which, you know, the cycle bros will talk about it. But what we're seeing is it's not dropping. It's basically kind of stuck.
Starting point is 00:49:19 And that will change. And Mike could be right. could easily see a head fake lower before it goes higher. We could easily see more headpakes. Every one of the technical analysts I followed basically said, this is, Bitcoin's going to hit 100,000, sell it then. In fact, it only got the 94. And so, you know, who the hell knows? But, you know, think of what 94 is. You're literally talking about three or four percent, five percent. You're not talking about a 15 to 20 percent rally anymore. The scale, the order of magnitude of the movement is so much lower.
Starting point is 00:49:50 And that tells you saying, now, look, here's the, here's the, here's the, here's the, here's the, like, this is insane. The Bitcoin for the amount of negativity we've had in this space for the last three, four, five months, this asset is still the eighth largest in the world. And it's down like 24%. And it's down like, yeah, it's been down over 30. It is, it's still the eighth largest asset in the world. So, you know, right. I mean, you have to, that, that is telling you something. It's, it's larger than Facebook.
Starting point is 00:50:29 It's larger than Saudi Ramco and Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway. Like, it is not going away. It's like you make one more point, which will, which will, this will definitely get people's hackles up. But I don't care. Go, Dave. Go. I like sharing the shit. Yeah, let's do it.
Starting point is 00:50:45 What if, what if the fact that Bitcoin was so strongly associated with, you know, with the letters, T-R-U-M-P is why it stuck where it is. Yeah. Because I actually... It's been co-opted by this administration. There's no... I'd rather... The sentiment, the sentiment, you can feel the negative sentiment still there from the Democrats.
Starting point is 00:51:12 You can still feel that. And it was strong before the election. So... Right. So what happens in a world where... where you know which we know three years another one thing we do know regardless of all the the the the four-chan people is there will not you know trump will not be president in four years we have a pretty good idea that after a year we're going to end up where he is is effectively made politically
Starting point is 00:51:39 impotent but that of course makes it more dangerous on the executive side we know that that is the most likely scenario now do i want that to be the case no i don't but i'm just calling balls and strikes here. So, you know, that is where, what the most likely scenario is. Now, in that scenario, let's talk geopolitics. If you're outside the United States and you're one of the countries that are buying gold and silver, at what point is there a rotation? At what point do they say, okay, Trump's been defanged already. I'm going to make a crazy contrarian take, which is if it becomes obvious that Trump is not going to have as much power, that at that point is when the next level, the next big rally in Bitcoin could take place.
Starting point is 00:52:21 Now, look, it will, that will in turn make Eric and Donald Jr. very wealthy because we know that that's where their bets are. But the truth is that whether it's Bitcoin as a bet or whether it's crypto rails as a bet, that's the winning trade. It is absolutely true. Now, it may be that for years, it gets, you know, delayed because we can't get a clarity act done because the Democrats are insisting on ethics. By the way, just to be clear, I agree with the ethics stuff they want to put in.
Starting point is 00:52:51 There's no reason. There's no way that a standing politician could issue inequity against their own name. So why the hell should they be allowed to issue a meme coin against their own name? I mean, I agree with that. I just want because a lot of people think that I'm a stomping Republican. I'm much more closer to an unaffiliated voter, even though I am, quote, a Republican. But there are certain positions that are just untenable. I mean, I don't know a human being in the crypto space who thinks that,
Starting point is 00:53:17 select that a politician should be allowed to create a meme of themselves and profit from it while they're in office i don't know anyone you know and so i well i mean this is where we are you also have you also have a politician who was making on average about a hundred to twenty hundred twenty thousand dollars a year on on her salary and she's worth over four hundred million dollars because of her stock trading oh absolutely well i mean look there the amount of really good options if we talk about ethics phenomenal the biggest deal is a manestry Look, Elon has put his finger on the pulse of it. The reason that Tesla cars are getting keyed and all of the other stuff is because he was getting close.
Starting point is 00:53:55 And he was abandoned by the Republicans who make probably not quite as much, but the whole NGO complex is massive. The fact that they just caught bags of cash at the airport in Minnesota trying to smuggle those bags of cash out to the Middle East or Somalia should tell you something. The entire non-governmental organization funding is the biggest scandal in our lifetime. And unfortunately, both parties are involved, which is why Elon was not allowed to do anything about it. Now, maybe all this shit will resolve. We haven't talked about any of that. But when it comes to Bitcoin, right now Bitcoin is painted as political, eventually that will fade. And eventually it will be what it really is, which is apolitical.
Starting point is 00:54:35 That's the point that the next hour. It'll also stop being associated with just a mere risk on asset at some point. But right now, it is a risk on asset with no risk. Its volatility is the lowest of all of them. It's crazy, but Bitcoin's volatility compared to all the Mag 7, I think it's below all of them. Maybe there's one that isn't there, but it's literally lower. And so when Mike and I used to talk about beta and this and that, because beta is one or less than one to the Max 7 right now.
Starting point is 00:55:03 Yeah, also we have a rotation happening just quickly from the Mag 7 into small caps anyways, which should be a risk-on sentiment in general. I mean, this is the IWM, the Russell, making a new all-time high, breaking out of a range forever. So if you're bearers on the stock market and you think that you see tech stocks going down as a bad thing, that would only be the case if you saw money leaving, but it's finding a new home. And actually, you would imagine that right now we're in an extreme risk-on environment based on this. Yeah. And so my overall point is the sentiment and the concept that Mike is saying, selling when you're yelling, when they're yelling, buying when they're crying, is those are words to live
Starting point is 00:55:43 buy. And if you're a trader, and yes, this is a great trading market for Bitcoin if you're a short val trader, and it is a great trading volume for silver if you're a long vol trader. And what do I mean by that? There are two types of trading strategies on the quantitative and trading side. People who sell volatility, who basically are looking for a range and capture the long and short. I used to call this channelingstocks.com. Back in the internet bubble, there was this service that was advertising on CNBC that says, we're going to tell you where the bottom of the ranges and the top of the range and you're going to sell it and you're going to sell it and you make money. And those strategies, by the way, are enormously profitable over 90% of the time.
Starting point is 00:56:24 The problem with those strategies are when they're wrong, they're wrong by a factor of 20. You get absolutely buried. And so what Mike is telling you and he's right, just understand, Mike is totally right, is if you set your stops right and you're disciplined, those strategies make money. That's a short, short volatility strategy when I say that. Long-val strategies. You're buying, expecting the market to go either parabolic up or crash, and you're going to capture that.
Starting point is 00:56:53 Those strategies lose money, literally lose money 90% of the time. But they make money. It's more like a VC. You make 20x your money or more. That is the difference. Now, I'm over-generalizing it. Obviously, there's hybrids and there's lots of option strategies and market makers could do it. But, you know, I will always remember having these conversations.
Starting point is 00:57:14 And that's something to keep in mind. So, yes, these are great trading markets. And we have something today that we almost never have. Normally, one of the two makes money and the other doesn't for all assets. Today, we have assets that are comfortably making money for one and comfortably making money for the other, different assets. So it's a very interesting trading market. And that's something that people need to understand. So on a macro show, understand, if you,
Starting point is 00:57:40 you believe that something macro is going to break, well, you have ways to do it. If you think that the macro is going to stay stuck in amber, there are ways to trade it. And that's the way. I know it was a long soliloquy, but I think that's important for people to understand because we always get caught in these simple up-down conversations. It's not that simple. That makes sense, Scott. I mean, you talk about this all the time.
Starting point is 00:58:01 Yeah, it makes a ton of sense. I know we're like right up against time. I did want to at some point talk about, maybe we'll get into it next week, but Trump's saying a cap, you know, into trade on credit cards at 10%. Obviously, that was to the title here, rattling markets, banking stocks and credit cards.
Starting point is 00:58:19 Banks are all reporting this week, so it's going to be interesting if they have any comment about it. Yeah, and then, of course, saying I want to ban institutional investors in housing. And I was looking forward to a good debate on whether that would be a good or a bad thing, but I think we got to touch on another time. Could I just say one point?
Starting point is 00:58:36 In the history of, man in economic history in peacetime, there has never once been a successful implementation of price controls. Never once. Expect, you know, it's like, what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing, expecting a different result. Never once. It's never worked.
Starting point is 00:58:59 The closest you could come to are some of the third world countries who impose capital controls and then dollarized. and even there, there was all sorts of distortions, black markets, etc. So, I mean, look, I understand the populism. I mean, you know, it's, it is amazing. From the political side, yeah, I get it. Let's just be, let's be honest. We are, we're in a fake capitalist, you know, system.
Starting point is 00:59:28 It's not really fully capitalist. That's the problem. And you've got, you've got, you've got socialists and, and, you know, aspiring communists railing against capitalism, but they're not railing about, again, they're railing against nepotism and cronyism is what they're doing. And that's the reality. And that's the system we live in. And we talk about it all the time, the K-shaped recovery, the two economies, the cantalent
Starting point is 00:59:56 effect, all of that, which I wrote about this weekend. It's all wrapped into the fake capitalist system that we're in. And that's what people are railing against. And that's why ultimately, I truly believe, and I think you do. And, you know, Scott, I think Dave, you and Scott do believe this. I'm not sure where you believe this, where you stand on this anymore, Mike. But I do believe that's why Bitcoin ultimately wins out. And that's because of the failed system that we're in, as simple as that.
Starting point is 01:00:30 I think we all agree on the failed system. I think there's just disagreement as to what to buy it. The Alchemist, sure. right but yeah we'll continue to debate that every week again in in the in you know kind of in the framework of what is going on in the world for that week and yeah there there hasn't been a week and for as long as I can remember that there was wasn't something just astounding going on and this week we had like four or five things that we we couldn't even touch on all of them so someday what's the expression some weeks not
Starting point is 01:01:05 Nothing happens. Decade. Yeah, decade happens in a week. A week happens. We're in a crazy geopolitical time. At the same time, market volatility is as muted as we've ever seen it. It's wild. That's probably wild.
Starting point is 01:01:21 How long can that last? It can't. It can't. Mark, it's never going down again. Never. Never going down. Never going down again. An outlawed, dude.
Starting point is 01:01:32 Trades like that. Well, we're getting to the end. I just want to show you one chart that I featured this a couple years ago, but it started breaking down. Now it's probably the most significant chart in the planet. And this is just the S&P 500 measured an ounces ago that just below that high that was put in 1929. This is a monthly chart. Right now it's 1.151 ounces. I think it goes to one-to-one.
Starting point is 01:01:55 And the question is maybe it goes to 5,000 and gold in 5,000 to be 500. Maybe it's 6,000. Maybe it's four. I don't know. But it's breaking down. And volatility is still very low. Typically, this only happens in volatile is up. So that's me, there's so much more room.
Starting point is 01:02:06 And that's why I look at things at crypto. It'll be a chance to buy Bitcoin when the VIX pops to, who knows, 30 or so, when S&B 500 breaks down. But right now, it's just telling you to hang on, wait for the breakout and then look to move. But buying it here, I'm like, yeah, good luck. Yeah. We'll talk about it in a few minutes. We have crypto downhaul to continue the conversation for the time.
Starting point is 01:02:28 Yeah, at least in terms of the crypto side. I just think on the macro side, we have the, The markets believe that all of this is saber rattling and nothing major is going to happen. That is what's being priced in right now. And you can make your bets based upon that. And honestly, there are so many that we'd even mention the largest story geopolitically by far. Iran. Is Iran.
Starting point is 01:02:49 And we don't know what's going to actually happen there. We don't. But all I will say is this. Iran, a democratic Iran is the biggest geopolitical change of the last five decades. It changes everything in a way that people don't truly appreciate or understand. At the same time, the biggest change that could happen in the United States is if the NGO and deep state stuff gets people pissed off enough and we actually get change there, that would be the biggest single thing that could happen in the U.S. in terms of if the estimates of fraud that Elon is making are right. And I think that he's,
Starting point is 01:03:32 I think he's not just directionally right. I think he is exactly right. That could change things dramatically. These are things that the market is betting will not change. Just think about them. And if you want to understand how to bet on that, I mean, there are lots of ways, but we're not going to get to it here.
Starting point is 01:03:50 This is a macro show. But that is, that is, but those are macro, massive macro forces. I'll just take Iran. Who cares? I mean, it would be, there's so many, Alaska, like whatever, man. I'm not take Iran. I was kidding. I was making a joke.
Starting point is 01:04:06 No, no. But it is, but it looks God. Debilitating TDS. It's a big deal. It is. It is. I have debilitating TDS according to the comments. I would argue that when someone says we're going to take a sovereign nation easily,
Starting point is 01:04:20 either the easy way or the hard way that you should look at that objectively and have on it that's not based on your politics, but here we are. I am granted as the local Trump supporter in this program. I think that comment was irresponsible. Maybe that may be the softest way I could express it. I think it's insane to think about using military there. The only thing I can say is if we can't convince NATO to make sure to gate Greenland away from China, it's not Russia is the issue.
Starting point is 01:04:50 Russia doesn't have the economic ability to use the rare earths that are in Greenland. Make no mistake. Greenland is about rare earth minerals. Of course. That's what it's about. It is about dominance in the electronification of the world. That's what it's about. And it is incredibly important geopolitically. It is not any different than Alaska was with regard to oil.
Starting point is 01:05:11 All the good news for you, Dave, is now that you have joined me in the contagious form of debilitating TDS, there's a pill that's being approved by the FDA that can cure that for both of us. Well, I have no TDS. I actually, it, I look, I'm, I think that many of the things this administration is doing are correct. I don't want to go there right now. You and I should have that conversation. I think it would be our, it would you be a non-ficto YouTube.
Starting point is 01:05:35 We could get there. It would be great. I value my life more than that. Okay, that's all we got for you guys today here on macro Monday. Man, I can't even imagine what we'll be talking about by next week. The same issue. Annexing and what type proposals will have. But we got through most of it.
Starting point is 01:05:52 Thank you, gentlemen. Dave, James, Mike. Dave and I will be on Crypto Town Hall on X in about eight minutes. We will see you there. Bye, everyone. Please. Everyone's looking for smarter ways to build their Bitcoin stack. Well, here's one most people overlook.
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