The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Pump Ahead, Stock & Bonds Are Overvalued | Macro Monday

Episode Date: August 14, 2023

It's not just Monday, it's Macro Monday with James Lavish, Dave Weisberger, and Mike McGlone. We are talking about recent news in macro, why stocks and bonds are overvalued, why we can expect Bitcoin to pump in the coming weeks, and more! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish ►►MELD MELD will bring to bear the full power of decentralized financial instruments to the masses. Banks are at the heart of the economy, MELD will become a new set of banking tools that are by the people and for the people. 👉 https://bit.ly/meld-early-access  ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Traders, investors, and pundits have been largely optimistic about markets over the past few months, saying that the bear market is over, nothing bad can happen. Bulls have been celebrating and dancing on the graves of anyone with a negative opinion. But all of a sudden, it's starting to feel like the news cycle is turning more negative. There are problems in China, problems in the option market, billionaires coming out and saying that both bonds and stocks are overvalued and actually using data and metrics to prove it. The kind of stuff that Mike McGlone probably really likes. And speaking of Mike McGlone, we have him and Dave Weisberger.

And now a fourth guest who's going to be joining us hopefully every week or most weeks if we can get him up on the West Coast. James Lavish, who I guess has been very, very popular with you guys. And it'll be exciting to have him here. We have a lot to talk about today, especially after taking an entire week off. Let's go. What is up, everybody? Let's go. vacation. I always take that last week off before my kids go back to school to spend time with them before the mayhem of the school year starts. But the highlight, don't tell my family this, but the highlight was that I actually got to sit down and have dinner with Raul Paul. We had one or two too many drinks and talked about markets, the world. It was really awesome.

We had a great time. It was great to finally put a face to a name. And he continued the trend of everybody that I meet seemingly in person is way taller than me. The guy is like 6'4". He looks like he could play professional basketball. He's absolutely huge. And I looked like basically a dwarf standing next to him. But let's actually go ahead and talk about markets. We'll have the public conversation outside the private one I have with him. I'm sure Dave will be joining soon, but we've got Mike and James here already. James, it's dark over there.

I know we get you up again. I'm sorry. I say it every time. That's going to get bright here soon. I imagine it will. So listen, right before we started the stream, obviously we have some data showing that Bitcoin likely might be undervalued. We'll see. And we have quite a bit of data that stocks and bonds are overvalued. We're going to talk about that and we'll get to it. But also you pointed out some bad news coming out of China,

and that seems to be pretty consistent. This is China finance giants, mispayments, alarm regulators, markets. Zhang Ji, we're going to call it that because we don't speak Chinese here. But Zhangji Enterprise Group, a secretive financial conglomerate that manages about a trillion yuan, surged to the fore after several of its corporate clients disclosed overdue payments by a trust unit. And they're saying this is a property crisis has spread to the 2.9 trillion trust industry. Mike, does this matter? Oh, yeah.

Unfortunately, it's a tree in the forest, and those trees are getting more significant every day. So that's just the latest of what I see as a train wreck imploding, resetting economy. I don't say these things lightly. I don't wish bad things on anyone, but my job as a strategist is to point out my views undeterred by other people's views. And another headline I just saw in the Bloomberg Journalist says,

three trillion reasons a trust industry shock is not over. That's the trust industry. But the key thing to remember is that on a Bloomberg headline, you can't put a journalist's name because this has happened to us. People, my colleagues can get detained for quote unquote detained up to a year if you write the truth about what you think. That to me is the macro that's happening. I view China as early days of something similar to what we saw, peak Japan, when the Nikkei peaked around 40,000 and it's still below that level and 30 years ago and peak China and peak Soviet Union I like to every data you set you see is just the exact opposite that we saw in the beginning year so it was only eight months ago so maybe it's leaning too far to the pessimistic side but I

asked myself is what's going to stop this remember what's happening now is the reshoring on shoring and get out of China mode is accelerating. The U.S. now imports more from Mexico than it does from China for the first time in 20 years. The Chinese leader, one leader, it's not China anymore. It's one person. It's so significant. Even during the Soviet Union, you had some checks and balances. They don't even have those anymore. And he has completely upset his top customers. The U.S. is one of them, but Europe. So I see things as just a normal correction in an economy that grew too far too fast.

And it's not upset the country that brought it out from being mostly country of peasants. So in the macro, what I see here is it's August. And, yeah, we're seeing the little flows in markets. But to me, this is really going to accelerate into what I view as one of the biggest resets of our lifetimes. China in decline. That's way overdue and normal. I look at commodities right now. Crude oil has just had its bounce and it should go lower.

That's normal. Copper is starting to tilt back down. And the number one factor is the stock market has to stay up or else everything trickles down. Housing, yields, interest rates. And still, the problem is that in my lifetime, I've never really seen is even if it drops, let's say, 10% from here, which is not supposed to matter, the Fed is still not going to ease. They might start pricing for it because the metrics they watch, personal consumption, expenditures, employment costs, and NICs, will stay sticky.

But some of the key things I like, like PPI, just dropped at its fastest pace in history, and it's starting to bounce a little bit. Back to you. James, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, China has a – they have a housing issue because they – the Chinese people, their savings are, it's in real estate. They don't have 401Ks and IRAs. They save their money in real estates.

And these trusts, like the one that missed the payments this morning, neither can I pronounce the actual name. We're going with Shang-Chi. Shang-Chi. That's what we're going with. Yeah, I just don't want to butcher it. So but they missed payments. And the thing is, they call it the shadow banking industry there. So we don't really know what's going on.

And like Mike said, you can't really report on it truthfully or else you could be detained. So that's the issue here is that what how how big does this get and what kind of contagion is it? And does it spread outside of China? And that that's a likely yes. And so it's a question of how you know, when does that that next domino fall, you know, to to to knock something into that contagion crisis kind of, you know, category. And so that's what we're watching for. And it does worry me because they have so much leverage tied up in the real estate market that missing payments because of the way that they were investing, they were investing in unfinished real estate units that they were expecting to get filled up and pay back some of that principle. That's the problem. Yeah, I haven't dug into it that deep, but you see these over the years.

You've seen these images of full cities that they've effectively built just to show whether you think they thought they were going to be filled or it was just artificial growth, effectively stimulus, but millions and millions of units in these towns that not a single person has ever moved into. I mean, David, is that cooking the books? I mean, is that what's happening in China? And finally, you know, it's coming due? Well, yes and no. I mean, cooking the books for sure. Coming due?

I mean, what will actually happen? I mean, you know, James, who I love many of your threads, but the way I look at this, I'm amused by it. I think that that the federal government in this country and in a lot of countries, but certainly in the Western world outside of Germany, are entering debt spirals. You know, we don't have the money. There is literally no way to pay back the debt if you take in unfunded liabilities and Medicare and Social Security in this country. It's literally impossible without one thing. The one thing is inflation. Now, what kind of inflation do we need? And I've said this for four years. People need to keep missing the boat. Inflation. Yes, I despite going to Northwestern, I believe in the Chicago school. We get that. OK. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. So what kind of inflation?

We've had raging inflation for 30 years, but it's all been in assets. And asset inflation is exactly what the government needs, because the only way they're going to pay back this debt is for the economy to grow in nominal terms, for assets to go up in value and people to be continuing buying treasuries. Mortgage rates in this country hitting 8% is a big freaking deal. And there is no way of the long, just think about that for a heartbeat. So now we have mortgage rate at 8% and the long bond at what? Four, give or take? Is that sustainable?

That's 4.16, yeah, I think. Sure. What happens if the long bond goes to historical averages in the six and a half to seven range? And what's our debt? James, you tell us. The deficit grows by so much. It's no way out. So now ask yourself the question, you know, Mike is like, you're convinced the fed's going to fight inflation i'm calling bullshit the fed can't fight inflation when they actually want inflation they just don't want consumer inflation and they absolutely need the long bond to to stay here or go lower they can't afford it to keep creeping up and they're going

to use what's going on in china and the contagion as an excuse, for sure. And the real issue is how do they do this at the same time as restraining CPI? Already, you're seeing the lapdogs of this administration out this weekend starting to talk about various forms of price controls. You're already seeing it. And, you know, you're going to see more of it. It doesn't work and it will never work. And it's amusing how people keep thinking that, you know, we've had we've had 5000 years of human history and never once as a central planner ever been able to set prices in a way that's worked, but they're going to keep trying. I just look at all this stuff and I think, look, follow the money. The Fed can't afford long rates to go that much higher. And I just think that that's where the things break. So

they're hoping to break inflation and and then be able to get back to what they were doing. And as James reports on very well, I just don't see how they can. I mean, I'm curious what you think. I've been looking forward to this ever since I saw the tweets you were joining us, James, because I know you have an opinion on this. I do. Look, our interest payments are up almost 50% year over year on the debt at the federal level. That's inconceivable for everybody. And the Treasury puts out reports regularly.

And what they do is they're telling you what they expect to happen. It's always a pretty optimistic report, in my opinion. They never expect a recession. They never expect a long period of increased rates. But you've got interest payments on treasuries now. They're reaching about a trillion dollars annually. And so we're going to pay more on interest on our debt than we're going to pay for military spending in this country this year. Which needs to come down about 50% itself, but yes. So you're talking about $800, $850 billion of defense spending that we know of, right?

And then you've got almost a trillion dollars of interest payments. And, you know, we we had we through the whole debt ceiling crisis, we drew down the Treasury General account and we ended up having to refill it with a trillion dollars. Right. So how do you do that? How do you how do you fill up? Well, we've been sucking money out of the reverse repo facility. And so we've taken what, Mike, about six hundred billion dollars out of that, something to that effect. And so it's gone from like two point three to one point seven ish last time I looked. And so, you know, where else can you go? There's only so much you can take out of that. And then, so they just keep, the treasury just keeps issuing short-term debt that's expiring in a month or two months or three. And so it just keeps having to, they have to re-up. And at some point here, they have to issue longer dated

treasuries. And that's where interest rates start to move on the long end. So you get the 10-year moves and the 20 and 30 year that and now you're seeing, you know, mortgage rates up over 8%. And because what happens is and you sent a Scott, you sent them a Twitter thread, read Yeah, from from Congress. And this is this a great thread. And it's and I agree 100% is that cash has to come out. Money has come out of risk assets to meet that demand, you know, that treasury demand for longer dated paper. And so that just means that it's going to be a little bit of a crack on on on risk assets. So these things all add up like Mike, like Mike said. And Dave, you're saying it's just that there are trees, there are signals,

there are stop signs, and we're just kind of blowing right through them. And what worries me, what has worried me up to now and still is that we have some sort of credit event. You can't raise interest rates 500 basis points in a year, which is, you know, it's over 20 times what the interest rates were at a quarter of a percent. So you can't just raise them that much without expecting something to break. And it did. We saw what happened in Silicon Valley. But I don't think that's the only thing. There's something there. There are other things out there. There are other companies or other either whether it's an insurance company, whether it's another bank. There are other institutions out there that have this interest rate risk that it's not going away. And they're

hoping they're making the bet that they get through this. They kind of step through this field of landmines and they get get through it okay but the the rate staying up here for another few months again three months six months nine months something's gonna break here and and the fed's gonna have to swoop in and that's so you're watching the risk assets gauge that and and wait and and and see can we actually soft land? You know, do we have soft land? So, yeah, there's a lot of push and pull. For me, this is one of the most difficult markets to gauge that I've seen. Mike, I'm going to let you go one second.

In layman's terms, basically that means stocks should be topping. Right. I think that Mike's been saying this whole time. But the gist there is that when the Treasury was effectively releasing these shorter-term duration, people viewed them as risk-free. As they become longer duration, people don't view them as risk-free. And to hedge, they have to actually sell things and match risk assets. I use short-term bills instead of cash in lieu of cash because they're sure they're yielding so much but i'm not buying long data paper no way so the risk is not

the same so that means that people have to hedge use cash which is sucks liquidity basically they've been saying that they're doing qt for all this time but the QT is really just starting because they've had all of these sort of low key behind the scenes, quantitative easing happening with the bank facilities and reverse repo and all these things. Is that the gist? Yeah. And all this has happened, exactly 100%. And all this is happening at our favorite time of year, which is coming right before window dressing season. And so as Mike and Dave know very well, this is when we get sell-offs, September and October, period. And here we are.

And everybody's just like, it just baffles me that we do this every time. But here we are. I look at this as one of the most straightforward asset allocation environments ever. The U.S. government, to your note, gives you 5% approximate right now. Okay. Talk to you later. Call you from the beach of retirement. And to me, you're supposed to look back and say, okay, I do think that's just logical,

historical. The S&P 500 is supposed to get closer to three. It's 44 right now, 44.4 or 4 500 it's just normal what we described is a train wreck that has to happen and then you look at on an international basis u.s okay natino you get around five percent in china you're getting two percent oh good luck with that one not much happening there in japan you get nothing maybe a couple basis points in germany the third largest economy you get three percent you're still getting 200 basis points more in the U.S. And in England, you get about the same. What's the safest asset in the planet? It's still U.S. Treasuries.

You can get those dollars back. Then, of course, you have 11 aircraft carrier battle groups protecting you. So I look at this as that environment, Bud, that heard it, seen it, and I just lived with it from 30, 40 years ago when I was trading U.S. Treasuries. It's just so mute. We're all turning Japanese. But that's to me, the credit event will come and almost never don't. They always happen. You have to have risk assets go down. And they've gone up.

So you take out the tide a little bit, and then you see who's not wearing clothes. And to me, that's where we're heading. And that's the key question I ask is, what stops us? So what we're doing now is the greatest rug pull in liquidity ever after the biggest pump in liquidity ever. And the fact that I can say that and show the data is still shocking to me. I can go back and give you examples from the 1920s when the U.S. created massive supply of liquidity they shouldn't have. So money supply is still negative. PPI year over year is still negative. And the Fed is still hiking rates and price for that. So I look at it, everything else is going to trickle down from that. And the

Fed's not going to stop. They will. I fully expect yields, bond yields, everything to drop after the stock market does. And the question is, what stops it? It's all trickling there. So on our call this morning, even our main economists said, yes, they've been early. They've been a little bit wrong, but they're still maintaining the year-end recession view. So let's picture ourselves in December. Recession's kicking in. People are hoping the Fed will ease and they'll probably go home and say, no, we're not because we still see high inflation. That's something we haven't seen in a while. That's the great reset I think happening in early days. And then you tilt over to what should be early indications of that? What was the biggest liquidity pump indicator new

technology ever for the last 10 years cryptos the best indication should be bitcoin and that's why i'm looking for the lead indication from bitcoin and it's still kind of showing what i expected it got to near 30 and it's just not been able to get much above there at some point dave was going to go at some point that's going to change i know but right now it's a stable coin i mean i've been laughing i was gonna say i'm laughing not only can it not get above 30 it can't move 200 in a week that's significant that's the key thing is that's what i really pointed out writing this so bitcoin has become a stable coin and stable coins are clearly globally becoming crypto dollars and that's what i really i loved writing about that when Fitch downgraded U.S. debt.

If you use the S&P when they downgraded U.S. debt in 2011, that was a great time to buy the dollar. The trade weighted dollar index is up 40% since then. Every asset in the U.S. on a trade weight basis is up 40% versus every other asset

in the planet since that downgrade. So I look at it as, thank you for pointing out the obvious. Thank you for pointing out how strong we are because we're debating in this and facing this. You can't do that in China, in Russia. The dollar's pumping. I mean, look, there's a lot to unpack there. First of all, Bitcoin is far from a stable coin. Bitcoin is a little bit off. This week, this week, come on, Dave, we resume in here. Most volatility ever. It is the lowest volatility it's ever had.

Have you ever heard the expression rock in a hard place? So you have people, it doesn't take much. The market size of Bitcoin is tiny compared to the investors who have professed interest in it. We have two huge news events that have not happened that people are waiting for. One negative, one positive. Negative is Binance, which is, I don't know, 40% of global liquidity in crypto, going to get shut down by the DOJ and Interpol. And the other is, are we going to get BlackRock and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs approved, which unlocks double-dig digit trillions of dollars potentially and almost certainly at least half of at least the market current market cap of Bitcoin in demand for Bitcoin?

I mean, at least that within a year, which is which takes Bitcoin. There's just simply no way you don't have. There's not enough sellers with 70 plus percent of Bitcoin as people who believe it should be worth a quarter of a million or more. You're not going to see a lot of it's going to take a lot to get that demand. That demand will come in slowly. It's going to it won't be easy. It's not going to be a straight line, but that's a big deal. So you have this rock and a hard place. You have people who are willing to accumulate dips and you have the speculators are finally exhausted. So we have, you know, tops in a normal asset.

You would look at Bitcoin and say, well, look, when do tops happen? Tops happen when the long speculators get exhausted and the buyers aren't there. Well, that's not what's happened. In Bitcoin, what's happened is the long speculators are exhausted because every time they get there, and I'm going to use Mike's word because I love it,

every time their hopium gets to certain levels and they inject the hopium into their bloodstream and they start pushing it past 30 to 31 within minutes they they look around it's like wiley coyote you run run run run run run run and hope for other people behind you and you look around and there's nobody there and it's like the puff of you know the the smoke cloud goes away and all of a sudden you start falling but of course course, what does it do? It falls right back into the current level where there are long-term buyers who are willing to DCA into it. And so you have, that's why volatility has gotten low because there's no, I mean, zero long-term, you know, positive speculation. When there's zero positive speculation, that is when rallies start. So, you know, you have this dynamic going on in Bitcoin and the dynamic in Bitcoin is literally the polar opposite. The macro that we're talking about for, quote, risk assets is exactly what

Bitcoin was designed for. Almost everybody who owns it in those 70% of all Bitcoins that are being held are holding it because they think that dollars, yen, euros, remnibi, all these pieces of paper, these governments are going to have to competitively devalue and print their way out of a debt crisis that they literally have no other way to get out of. And so that is interesting. Now, sure, on the margin, do you expect the correlation of the downside? Look, if there is a massive stock market sell-off and we do get a crash in the fourth quarter or the third quarter, excuse me, I think that Bitcoin's beta will be historically low, just like volatility is historically low. Why? It has been.

Because there's no speculation. The reason Bitcoin's beta is high is because of all the speculation that's been going on. And there isn't any right now. There's also no liquidity. I mean, to the point of the tightening, there's just zero liquidity. And where's that going to come from? Well, be careful, Scott. I mean, we track this. I mean, we track this extremely well. You know, liquidity is real. It's just liquidity has left the U.S. dollar pairs. I mean, would it surprise you? I mean, I don't know if I can. I have a I have some interesting charts that I could show. But at the end of the day, I'm looking at the cost of a million dollars of Bitcoin liquidity in the market and the cost for if you go back six months, for dollar pairs, Bitcoin dollar on the Bitcoin dollar exchanges,

it was pretty much between four and six basis points for a million bucks. It has been very volatile over the last few months. Now it's kind of at five, give or take. The Bitcoin tether pair liquidity, on the other hand, is very different. It's half that. The liquidity is moving offshore, hand, is very different. It's half that. The liquidity is moving offshore, which is not terribly surprising. And so, you know, there's a demonstrable, we're actually writing a paper for the Journal of Investing on this. And I'm going

to talk about this in our midsummer recap. But the fact is, liquidity in the markets, the reason people are willing to buy tether, get no yield, is because they want to be able to trade crypto. And it's global, and it's big, and there's demand for it. Those crypto dollars, the reason for those crypto dollars are because the direct result of the U.S. authorities cutting off crypto firms from the banking system. And so, you know, we're seeing very interesting, you know, cross currents going on here, but, but be careful when you talk about liquidity because liquidity is there. It's just not there for, you know, it's just, there's no deep, no people doing really dumb ass trades.

And the reason you get the, seriously, I mean, there are people who are newer. I've seen Frentech and Pepe. No, I know you. We saw XRP on Gemini last week. Yeah, that's a 50 bucks. You know, people in crypto, I mean, look, my whole company is based on trying to help people execute better, right? You know, here's another fun fact for you. Bloomberg produced a, and I asked Larry Tabb for this, a thing that talked about U.S. equities versus foreign equities, the cost for institutional orders. And they showed the cost to buy less than 5% ADV, average daily volume, for U.S. equities around 11.5 basis points, whereas in Europe and UK, it's like 7.5.

Everyone's like, ooh, the U.S. is the greatest capital markets in the world. Well, not anymore. And there's a reason for that. There are lots of reasons for that. But what's interesting is the U.S. is overregulated and under intellectual. But here's the fact that no one knows. Our clients, CoinRoute's clients, over the last, since January, January through the end of July, their costs for $200,000 orders or more across crypto, you know, is under seven basis points. So actually, this deregulated Wild West market of crypto, it's actually cheaper to do institutional size, even in the U.S., even including all this, these volatility issues. It's actually cheaper if you trade intelligently.

Now, part of the reason for that is, is our clients benefit from other people's stupidity. I get that. So it's not necessarily a market-wide phenomenon, but it is important to understand all this. So be really careful when you talk about liquidity. What's happening is, yeah, there is not enough liquidity for a major buyer. So if there was a major buyer did an asset allocation towards Bitcoin, yeah, its price is going to go up because of supply and demand. But liquidity for short-term trades and for people who are in the ecosystem, it's actually fine. It's just in the US that it's been a disaster. Sorry, that was a very long-winded rant. I'm sorry about that. Not a bad thing at all you're allowed uh and i wanted

to go just circling back specifically to talking about really what james is talking about uh dave you as well that treasuries effectively have to go up one of the reasons that we said stocks and bonds are overvalued in the title here is bill gross the long uh bond known as the bond king in the past was a co-founder of pimco he says that 10-year treasuries and that stocks are both overvalued. We're at 4.16%. He says 4.5% is fair. How much would that, I mean, that's almost a 10% increase, right? It seems like it's not much, but how much would that rock the market if it actually even just rose to that level, James? We're talking about 6%, 7%, 8%, but how much would it change from 4.16% to 4.5% matter in the current environment? Remember, you're talking about a piece of

paper that has a number of years of duration, right? So that kind of multiplies that effect. So it also depends on how quickly you got there. If it happened in a day, it would destroy markets. If it happened in a couple of months, I mean, it would just stair-step it. So it really, really matters on how you get there, right? But it's a huge move. And that's right. They are overvalued. And that's the concern is that where is all this capital going to come from that's going to fund these massive deficits?

Where's it going to come from? Well, there's only one way. It's printing. But, you know, we've made the argument here. Before that, though, before that, it's got to come out of risk assets, right? Right. Exactly right. Which is that entire thread. You've often made the point here that the days of easy liquidity are over. The government does not pivot back to the same sort of aggressive QE and printing that we've seen in the past. James might disagree, so this could be a good conversation. But where is it going to come from if they're not going to do that, Mike? I mean, we know that it will short term, it will come from risk assets, but eventually those sell off.

If you have a crash, there's nothing left to sell. Where does it come from risk assets, but eventually those sell off. If you have a crash, there's nothing left to sell. Where does it come from? Well, that to me is, I think the key thing we need to look forward to is, unfortunately, is there's plenty of times in history, money just leaves the system and you just poof, it goes away. And that's what I think is going to happen in the equity market. Remember, we've had this, it's really since been since the low in 2009. But what's changed? The key thing is also is that's helped boost equity market to highest levels ever versus housing, versus GDP, versus sales, you name it. And and versus the rest of the world, the U.S. stock market. That to me is where it's the train wreck I see happening is the Fed's not going to be there to save the equity market. Right now, it's doing the equity investors a favor, particularly people who are retired and flourished. Turn off CNBC. Stop trading stocks.

I mean, it's the biggest casino in the world. And just put your assets into these treasuries that the government has pumped up to these high yields. When you get to that deflationary trajectory, I didn't say if, because it always has happened that way. You get deflation after these type of events and this type of action. And particularly now we're in an environment where we're in the most, in terms of technology, pushing prices down, one of the most deflationary environments ever. Book of Price Tomorrow by Jeff Booth, Super Abundance, another book I've read, they're all tilting that way. To me, that's what's going to happen is the Fed's not going to save you the first move,

that first 20%, 50% down, and then it gets over to potential depressionary levels. That's what I'm afraid of. The key thing is right now, that's the current trajectory. We've had the bounce. We know the Fed's not going to save us. The market's still living this hope in, which is not my word. I stole from someone else, I think, on your program, but I appreciate it. It's a classic crypto term. So thanks for the mention, David. It's a classic crypto, but it's great. I stole it from someone else, I think, on your program. But I appreciate it. It's a classic crypto term. So thanks for the mention, David. It's a classic crypto, but it's great. I love mentioning that with people.

Like you mentioned boomerocks to people in a gold conference. They had no idea. I'm like, you didn't know what a boomerock was? Okay, but back to the key things. That's the scenario I think we're going to. That's my base case. It's been my base case for over a year. I know it's early.

It's been wrong, but it's tilting that I know it's early. It's been wrong, but it's tilting that way. I can show you it's happening in commodities. It's happening in inverted curve, leading into economic indicators, still at minus 8%. You look at the potential for recession from the New York Fed's probability recession from a yield curve. It's the highest since 1982. Great. Maybe that stuff doesn't matter. But then you have to put this in the context of rational human nature and economics and history. What we've done is distorted all the models. And now we're going back to normalization. And I think we're going back to that world where bad news is going to be bad news and good news is going to be good

news. It's going to take a while for that transition. But Mike, we haven't done this for something like how many years has it been since we've had 130% debt to GDP, right? So the leverage in the system is so great. What concerns me, it's not as much as, okay, so it's like landing that plane, right? Where you gradually take that, you decompress that cabin, right? So you can take oxygen out of the room. But if you have a credit event, which I would liken to one of the windows popping out of the airplane at altitude, you've got to drop the oxygen masks. There's absolutely no choice. And so we saw it happen just a few months ago. And everybody's just shrugging off the bank failures that are happening, like the one that happened in Kansas last week. They're just like, ah, it's just another bank.

It didn't even happen. It's like it didn't even happen. It's just another bank. No worries. But when we have some other credit event, I don't know what it's going to be. I cannot call it. But I strongly believe that we have a very high risk of another credit event because of just the nature of how quickly we have skyrocketed

rates and we haven't seen the effects yet. And so, yeah, so that's where I think the Fed has to, they have no choice. The Fed and the Treasury have to rush in and stabilize the market because what they cannot have is the Treasury market becoming illiquid. If that happens, the entire system falls. So we have to keep the treasury market liquid. And that's when that money printing occurs because they have to monetize their own debt in order to keep that engine going. So that is something we should look forward to as a potential iteration. I completely agree. Remember, we have good example for what's happening. We're all turning Japanese. Now we've kind of got away from that short term, but we're all going back there. But I do, I have to just, one thing I did appreciate a column that was written by my colleague, Niall Ferguson this week, and the economy is not a plane,

it won't land gently. And I just wanted to use that because people use that landing analogy. I love it, but this is why I think I agree with you, but that's what's happening. We're going to, I think it's just a matter of time. We get a reset in risk assets that have gone up and created an exceptional amount of wealth and inflation, and then the Fed will save us, but not in the pace they have. The point is we're not there yet. We're still in that point. We need to see that happen.

And that's why I look at it. That's why I say just there's certain times in life you're supposed to say, thank you, U.S. government, and, you know, good luck. People invest overweight the stock market. I mean, we're still a thousand off the S&P lows. Right. I mean, it was what was it last September, October? Yeah. Last October, we were at like 30, just sub 3500 on SPX, still at 4450. Maybe that was a shot across the bow. That's the way I look at it.

This is things how things have happened in history. And it's also the things that we all remember them with markets. And yes, I use 1930 as a good example. You had to have that big bounce, but it also, we all know human nature. You got to get people with that hopium and then give up. And I will think we're going to have a period. I've seen only twice in my career. I'm only almost 60 where you have to have that elongated period of people give up and you read headlines that it's no longer a place to invest in the stock market.

At some point, that always comes. I have to ask ourselves, when is that going to be? To me, this environment is one of the best ever. Fed's still tightening and the back of liquidity is still plunging. The whole world's tilting towards recession. What stops it? I'm looking at a, I just happened to bring this chart up because you were mentioning 1930. It's a chart I'd made a long time ago, but it's Dow Jones,

basically showing what a blip every single panic or crisis has ever been. When you look at it, even the great depression looks like a blip, but when you look here, I mean, COVID it's like, it didn't happen of course, but seeing where we are now, how little effect we've had to the downside on the stock market of any of this, even relative to these other ones, it's scary. Nothing's happened yet. When you look at it like, you know, zooming out, these are years, each of these candles, nothing's happened. Normal reversion of an excessive extended asset appreciation period on the back of liquidity when that liquidity goes away is what happens at almost every example in history it's just a question of when and like we discussed it's

credit events going to happen but he typically takes that tide to go out a little yeah a hundred percent absolutely that's a great point is that it takes it takes risk assets uh being repriced at least you know what it whatever it is, 5%, 10%, 10% to 15% before something does, before the emperor has no clothes and it's revealed, right? I mean, the real crash comes after the pivot anyways, historically. Yeah, historically. That's right. So that's what I'm saying.

They might pivot, but that's when the real crash comes. Here's the interesting part, is that all this timing is just, it's mind-boggling, right? So here we are's when the real crash comes. Here's the interesting part is that all this timing is just mind-boggling. So here we are heading into the window dressing season. For your listeners who don't know what that is, it's the asset managers and investment managers. They dress up their books to realize their profits for the year and their P&L so they can get paid on it. And it typically happens. Yeah, to get their bonus. It typically happens.

It's in September. And they want to get losers off the books because they don't want to have the convert the tough conversations at the end of the year. Why we why do we still hold this? And so and so that's where you have typically inequities. But it's all happening right as the Fed's about to not necessarily pivot. But once they pause, that's that's a signal that they're worried that rates are high enough above that neutral rate, which is, it's contractionary, right? So if it's above a certain rate, they feel like it's contracting the economy or it's pressuring the economy to contract. And so once they get to that point, they're signaling we're there.

And now we're going to hold it here for a while. And right as we head into the fall. Yeah. Listen, you guys, we've got some ex-hedge fund managers, traders here. Mike describes, obviously, the low risk of just being in short-term treasuries right now why wouldn't every hedge fund just make their five percent on the year by sitting in treasuries and just have nothing to do with any of this because if they do and the s&p goes up six percent it's the reputational risk of missing out yes but i mean look at the end of the day there's but hey hedge

funds are supposed to underperform in a good market right right? Isn't that what's supposed to happen? When things go up, hedge funds are supposed to do a bit worse. But when things go down, they're supposed to protect your ass. Absolute return. Absolute return. But the absolute return is benchmarked to the risk-free rate. Of course. And if you want to get your...

5% is a zero. Yeah, it's problematic. But I mean, look, at the end of the day, the fact is that we have a bunch of, two huge cross currents here. We have what we believe in nominal terms is overvalued assets. The one thing I would point out on your chart, Scott, is if you do the exact same chart,

but divide it by the purchasing power measured by any reasonable measure of adjusted for inflation yeah but not necessarily the inflation that we've manipulated do it the way you used to measure inflation if you just go on shadow stats you know shadowstats.com and and look at the difference between inflation yeah john guy named john williams founded it basically, the CPI has been adjusted a couple of times, a couple of big ones. The way it was in the 80s, the way it was in the 90s, the way it was even, you know, earlier this year, they keep doing things like substitution effects and all sorts of things. Real CPI is much higher than the actual CPI, which explains why, by the way, every human being that's looking at their bills.

If you're not, you know, you can't eat your TVs, your calculator. 3% my ass. You're hearing people that are upset, they're frustrated, they're angry. They know they're being lied to. They know. They're like, inflation is not 3% or 4%. You cannot tell me that your grocery bill is up 3% from last year. Come on.

It's just not possible. It's, you know, everything that is, at the end of the day, anything that you buy, whether it's a good or a service, that capital couldn't substitute for labor, that you can't offshore instead of onshore, that technology isn't driving the cost down. Because Mike is right. We have a huge deal in technology has been hugely deflationary. And it's allowed us to have this massive looking at one it's like basically trying to capture a three-dimensional space with with like a line graph you know you can't do it it's not even the two-dimensional picture we're talking about a lot we're talking about looking at one

point or one thing but dave isn't that the whole isn't that the whole point is to is to just bamboozle everybody including all of our international investors in our bonds, to believe that inflation is not bad. It's OK. And then quietly inflate away that debt by, you know, allowing there to be long term higher structural inflation, which is what Mike was talking about. And I agree. Right. It's their only way out of this high long-term inflation. Exactly my point. Thank you. So let's bring something in on that. And from a commodity standpoint, I really enjoy when people get bullish commodities when they go up, because the rule in commodities is you're supposed to sell them when they go up.

And because that's just a fact. Crude oil price right now, you see on the screen, was first traded in about 2007. So let's look at the three Cs of commodities, crude oil, corn, and copper. All of them, the first time they traded these levels was over 10 years ago, almost 15 years ago. So there's clearly signs of deflation. I published recently is the only thing that makes things go up is the overlay all these assets with money supply, as Dave points all the time, that big pump we had of money supply during COVID, that's going away. So I like to point out, yes, a lot of these things have changed for CPI, but if you just look at raw commodities, what you eat and what you use for fuel, the actual core price of that commodity goes down every day,

which I like to tilt over. I mean, people call me McGlum. I say, well, that's why I'm so bearish in commodities because of human innovation, but so bullish on the companies that create those. They can do more than every day. So I'll just give you a little hint. I just came back from the Corn Belt. Every time I go out there, I meet with some people I know who create, who are farmers and produce. They say the same thing everywhere. The technology is going so fast, I can't keep up.

Right. But think about what you just said, because it's really important. You mentioned the three Cs. I mean, copper, yeah, sure, fiber optics have taken some of the demand for copper out of wiring. But the reality, copper, I don't know what the mining technology is. But crude oil, we had one of the biggest single events in the history of crude oil production called fracking, which made us dramatically cheaper to get oil out of the ground. We had the one when it comes to corn. I mean, just forget about it. I mean, you're right.

That technology, there's too much of it, not just GMOs and farming and better fertilizers and whatever. Those are massively deflationary to the price of that in real and nominal terms. It's so strong in real terms that it's in nominal terms. The issue is, is a lot of what the what the if you think about go back with the government wants and what James was just saying, the government wants inflation in financial assets and what they don't want is inflation to creep into people's demands for wages and inflationary expectations i mean powell talks about this just listen to him he understands this i mean you know i give him a lot of props he's done a great job given the fact given that fact but he cares about people's inflationary expectations that he

loves the fact that technology is bringing down oil prices. Of course, also using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also brought down oil prices. You know, it's like there's a lot of things going on, but that's what he cares about. I mean, if he could do what he's done, and James, you weren't on this, but I used to do this all the time. Say you learn, you distract the audience, look at this hand and all the real stuff happening back here. Wants people to be looking at nominal inflation on things that technology is driving down while he pumps the economy up here and pumps up asset prices and

helps make the long debt more sustainable. That's what they want, whether they can do it or not is a different story. But the argument here from that thread and what we were mentioning before is that the Fed has basically, maybe they don't, but there's effectively run out of bullets, and it's really the Treasury that we need to look at for what's happening with liquidity and not the Fed. Go back to what Dave was saying before we even get to that. Another thing that has impacted crude prices is we've drawn down the strategic petroleum reserve by hundreds of millions of barrels.

So you can't ignore that. Like the fracking plus that it is it is impact those prices. Right. So when does that turn? I don't that's another that's another impact that we're not even discussing. There's a, there's a floor there for the U.S. to refill that, that, that, those reserves. Don't need it anymore. So I appreciate you going there. I did write a piece about a year ago when former, a friend of mine, Jeff Curry, was so bullish in commodities, and I wrote Facts and Fantasies of Crude Oil. And that is we don't need an SPR anymore because the only reason we really need it

is for hurricanes because we have a massive excess of supply. We need less. And here's two statistics. One, first of all, unleaded gas consumption just recently is about 5% less than it was before COVID. Okay, so we know what's happening there.

That trend in unleaded gas consumption in this country peaked years ago. Work from home. Yeah, not only that, but efficiency. EV sales on a global scale are now about 15% total new car sales before COVID. It was around 3%. What accelerated that?

This little invasion. Who supported that invasion? Unlimited friendship. That to me is all that big picture kicking in and just accelerating the technology. So I look is i like how yes i like to say by president biden might go down in history as one of the best crude oil um traders ever and i also pointed out you're supposed to sell your inventory when you're in backwardation you buy back futures now you haven't bought back the futures yet but that's just normal inventory management but now it's just not needed

particularly if you include Canada and all that. Crude oil up north gets kind of locked down and stocked in the U.S. with pipeline issues. We're running excess of 4 million barrels a day of crude oil. That's 4% of global supply. That makes, you know, that's probably what is that a third of Saudi Arabia's total crude oil production. Right. But we don't know how much of the reserves are actually usable too, right? Because there's slosh around the bottom of these tanks, and we don't know how much is actually usable. But what's that, Dave?

I said salt domes. Yeah, exactly. Sorry, Scott. Go ahead. Yeah. No, I was going to actually ask you guys, because this is, I guess, sort of breaking. If anyone's following what's happening in Argentina, there's been an election surprise. And I just read Argentine peso plunges 18 percent is like in a matter of hours after election surprise yesterday because the only market open was crypto.

Obviously, Tether was trading at an insane like 15% premium in a matter of an hour for people rushing into Tether. But basically, this is a huge shift, it says, in policy as President Alberto Fernandez's government has held the exchange rate steady through a web of capital controls, price freezes, and exchange restrictions. And now kind of all bets are off. I think the guy who's surprising is a libertarian. Actually, I've heard he's potentially a Bitcoiner. Not that that's relevant here. But I mean, it seems to be cracks all over the place here. I mean, look, at the end of the day, everyone in the United States who hold on to boomer rocks as opposed to

as opposed to a digital form of money ignores how important having sound money is, and ignores how bad it is to be in a place where the currency is there. If you end up with a libertarian in a place like Argentina, Argentina is a bit larger than El Salvador. Imagine what happens to the price of Bitcoin if Argentina goes the way of El Salvador. Imagine what happens to this president if he's actually a Bitcoiner and gets in control in Argentina and the IMF gets wind of it.

Well, the IMF basically, you know, the IMF to pound sand. You know, eventually, you know, people are going to realize in these countries that the IMF... El Salvador could tell the IMF to pound sand because the dollar is their currency. Right. Right. Right. Yeah, that's harder to do when your currency is the peso and is already hyperinflating. But, yeah.

Right. But, look, the bottom line is that austerity is not the way forward for these countries. The way forward is to actually unleash the economy. And we've seen it. I mean, look, we've seen it so many times over the course of the last 60 years. I mean, all these people in our schools who are learning that capital, 57% who think socialism is better than capitalism, look at this. Now they're doing it because they're looking at our system, which is more cronyist than capitalist. But the fact is the only way forward for these countries

is free markets. We know it and they'll figure it out eventually every single time they end up becoming debt slaves they get nowhere you know it's like the only countries that succeed at being debt slaves and getting where the only one i know of that's actually gotten anywhere is greece and why it's because basically you're all staring no europe is carrying them because the germans will subsidize the greeks that's what's happening because the Germans are subsidizing the Greeks. That's what's happening. Germany is subsidizing the Greeks. Get Greece off the Euro and we can go on really cheap vacations to the islands again.

Listen, I know we only got like seven or eight minutes left and I do want to talk about Bitcoin obviously and get an opinion because we know, Mike, I know we only got like seven or eight minutes left, and I do want to talk about Bitcoin, obviously, and get an opinion because we know, Mike, I know where you stand and we'll talk about it. But obviously that it's been sort of a leading indicator. It's been stale, likely to obviously crash. Dave, you haven't made an opinion on when, but believe, which we all do, that it could clearly untether and it could be decoupled and perform differently. We have it in the title, Bitcoin Pump Ahead. I just want to show you guys that was based on this article, Matrixports Bitcoin Green Fear Index indicates upswing ahead. It's historically inaccurate, blah, blah, blah. But yeah,

we know that these indicators don't matter that much. James, I want to ask you first, do you think that if we get this great reset that we see this major correction in stocks, that Bitcoin could either stay where it is or go up in that environment? I think that, you know, all assets correlate to one when we have, if you have a credit event or you have a strong market sell-off, strong market move, that's just reality. But I do believe that Bitcoin does decouple from that bottom and it leads the way forward back up. 2020. Yeah, I do believe that it, yeah, exactly. I mean, Bitcoin went up 17 times from the lows while the stock market doubled.

Right, and then, but the real decoupling is when it stops being the leading risk asset and starts being an asset that investors are hiding in rather than long bonds. And that would be the interesting turnover. But I don't think it's going to happen in a period of days. This is going to take a while. It's going to demand over a trillion dollars of assets in that one protocol in order for it to have enough liquidity not to continue to have the volatility that it has had prior to the last few weeks.

That's my thesis as well, except I think the timescales are getting compressed. I mean, if you look in 2008 at the bottom, gold bottomed three months later. Gold went on an epic bull run while the rest of the market was it was was still languishing and and dropping but it took three months it took three months for gold to be linked from the market if you look in the great depression home state mining uh and which was because they had outlawed gold so home state mining was the

was the biggest gold company was the the proxy. Same thing. It went down with everything else and then went on an epic bull run throughout the 30s. The fact of the matter is, I think we're setting up for something very similar to that. I also have a bit of a conspiracy theory in my head, which I think you probably would find amusing, Scott. I would actually be surprised, would not be surprised if the DOJ was trying to time what they're doing with Binance for when the SEC post their newest comment period, whatever, decides to approve BlackRock and Fidelity in the fall. I would not be surprised to see those both things happen, in which case what you would see is Bitcoin dominance going crazy uh to the upside uh everybody sells all their all their altcoins into bitcoin i don't like i don't think all coins are as monolithic as as most people in the crypto community i think there are some projects and some things which

have i just mean for dominance to skyrocket oh yeah but in an environment where we have a washing machine of liquidity that means the altcoins are going into Bitcoin historically. Yeah, that's right. But I think that that's definitely a possibility. But I think that it's really important to understand the dynamics of this volatility drop that we've seen in Bitcoin mean that there's much less to be sold. I think the beta to the downside will be less than the beta to the upside. 100 percent agree. 100% agree. Yeah. That's the one thing that I do think. And so if you put the probability of a 25 or 20 to 25% correction at 50%,

then basically what you're saying is there's a 50% chance that Bitcoin, I think, drops 10%. And a 50% chance that Bitcoin goes into a big rally mode when these decisions happen. That's how I sort of handicap it. And it'd be very difficult to time that. So if you do is to have your is to have your stink bids down low, like way down there. And because these exchanges will they'll go offline.

They will there will be massive liquidity, you know, push and pulls. And you will not be able to get in there and execute these trades. And, you know, we've all heard it. Don't get cute. Just don't get cute out there. Mike's point is there. I mean, look, if you look at just, I mean, we keep talking about this in the concept of risk assets but the truth of the matter is you really have to look at evaluation ratios price to sales price to free cash flow price to earnings if earnings aren't massaged as much and where they are and we are at highs if you want to look at affordability you

look at an asset like housing uh there you want to look the fundamental is affordability we are at lows yet you know which of course is inverse, you know, an inverse thing. I mean, these are the things that, that, that Mike always wants to point to and he's right. I mean, but it depends on where, but even housing, it's different here in South Florida or in Florida in general than it is in New York and still San Francisco and other, and in big cities. So fundamentals matter at some point. And we've had a market where fundamentals have really been, I don't want to get all cliff assness on this to say fundamentals have gone totally off the rails, but the fact is- Largely ignored?

Largely ignored in liquidity. And fundamentals do matter in the long run. And that's what Mike, that is the constant drumbeat that we hear from Mr. McGloom. But he's not wrong. I don't disagree. Well, so that's a key thing also. I want to point out two facts. Completely agree. It's a one-to-one correlation we all worry about. I'm not really so much worried about it crass. I'm just looking about normal historical retracement in value of all these assets that are elevated.

But here's the key thing I want to leave you with. Bitcoin and cryptos are very, very bullish for treasuries. And here's why. Stablecoins, where's all that money going? That's one thing I love pointing out. Since 2018, you look at the amount of crypto dollars, it's up like 4,000%. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index is unchanged. All that speculative money, if you're smart smart enough you made some money on some of these bogus coins where's that money going it's going into stable coins look at tether 83 billion dollars now it's more than some countries holding news treasuries and they're getting five percent like okay cryptos are great for treasuries i think our just our leaders need to figure that out well that's true that's where that money's going it's not going to treasury it's not going to stable coins to hold the yuan it's going to key bills yeah i think all right i think the bottom

line is everyone here is bracing for something to come and doesn't want to put a time or a price where it heads right that's how i feel about it okay it's 10 o'clock but i want to ask a very quick question go around the horn not expecting it necessarily to fill, but if you were trading this, where's your bottom Bitcoin bid right now for the next year? I'll put mine at 20. I think if everything goes bad, Bitcoin still makes a higher-ish low. That's what I think. So I'd say 20.

That's interesting because I was going to say 19,500 because 20 is what everybody expects. Well, yeah, 20-ish, 20-ish, 20-ish. I'd say 20. That's interesting. Cause I was going to say 19,500. Cause 20 is what everybody expects. And 20 ish, 20 ish, 20 ish. I agree. If you're expecting 20, you get 20,500 or 19,500. You never get 20. Exactly. Exactly. Dave, where would you be? I'm more bullish than you. I think that's going to be very hard to push it for any, at any size between 24 and 25. Yeah. Yeah. That, that, that, that's so the 24 25 is the i would give it a 50 probability of filling the 20 is the holy shit i can't believe we got

here bit of filling but uh mike what do you think double bottom which is around 15 15 yeah i wouldn't be surprised at all but i assume do you believe really quick if we double bottom on bitcoin do you believe that stocks have made a newer low or also double bottoming? Yeah. Oh, yeah. No, I think that's going to be the tide going out. Bitcoin will show its divergent strength eventually. But right now, you have to admit, the last few months, it's showing divergent weakness. We have to get to that point. At least show me the beef. Yeah, totally, totally agree. Power Blaster would like you guys to know that I've never been correct. And I would like to confirm that my crystal ball is broken. It sucks.

Just, I try it. I do the magic eight ball. It says 20K. And then it, yeah, fine. Anyways, yeah, it's hard to make predictions. That's why. There's a very real chance that we've seen the lows for this cycle. I really do.

I think we've seen the lows for this cycle. And really do. I think we've seen the lows for this cycle, and even if McGlone is saying we match the low, that means we've kind of seen the lows for the cycle. And in past four-year halving cycles, we generally make a slightly higher low at some point after this lack of volatility before shooting up. So I do expect that we will see some retracement at some point. Guys, James, it's so awesome having you here.

I'm not saying that the three of us weren't amazing, but it's nice to have some new blood and get some fresh opinions shared, obviously. Everybody knows the three of us, what we think at this point, right? So, guys, thank you very much. James, it did, in fact, get light behind you once again. I told you, the sun always rises. It is. Hey, guys, it's going to get better.

Perfect. Thank you, guys. Follow all three of them, please, on Twitter, of course. And, Dave, I want to say your YouTube rants or reviews on CoinRats are criminally under-watched, right? Do you do that every Friday? I literally just – I was watching it. Pretty much every Friday on YouTube on uh on youtube on the coin routes channel yeah i generally focus on

twitter as well and linkedin you know i i tried i know you weren't around this weekend and i often watch your 9 a.m rant and try to make sure i have every one of the cool stories friday rants have been less less aggressive than in the past those you know my my rants have been less aggressive than in the past. My rants are less volatile like Bitcoin these days. Anyways, guys, that's all I got for you. Thank you so much and we will be back. I'll be back, of course, tomorrow, but the quad here will be back

next Monday. Thank you, guys. Thank you.