The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Rally Confirmed As Institutions Prepare For ETF Approval

Episode Date: November 1, 2023

I am joined by Mike Alfred and Noelle Acheson to discuss the impending ETF approval and the FOMC decisions today. ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin is rallying as we speak in a pretty major move in a five-minute candle, wondering if there's some news that somebody is Atchison as well to talk about the Bitcoin price action. If this is a further indication that the institutions are indeed coming in an ETF is going to get approved. And also, of course, to talk about a bit about what we might see today from FOMC. I'm stuttering today, guys. It's been a long morning from FOMC and of course, the Treasury's new announcement on what they're going to do with bond issuance. We've got a lot to talk about today. I've got the two best guests to do it. Let's go. Let's go. to a party, which rarely ever happens. I was up somewhat late, but about 1230 at night, I was kind of getting ready to head home. And I got a message from Misha, who you all know, my producer, many know him as Mike, that he was crossing from Mexico to the United States to see

some friends. They stopped him for a random reason. And then because of some sort of paperwork glitch, I'm not really sure, they decided to deport him to Estonia. So trying to figure out what is going on with him. Unfortunately, that's obviously bad news for him. And that also meant that I had to figure out how to do a YouTube stream by myself. So if you're wondering why I'm mumbling through my words and was up late, it's because I was sending out invites, gathering news, and working on thumbnails and such. Really challenging. Hoping that we hear from him soon and that everything resolves okay. I know it's not a huge deal, but pretty disruptive

for his life, obviously. So hoping that that changes. I've got two amazing guests today, though, who've woken up to come talk to us. I've got Mike and Noel. Good morning, both of you. I hope you're doing great. Though, Noel, I guess it's good afternoon for you, right? Good afternoon, indeed, Scott. How are you today? I can't believe that about Misha. I hope he's okay. Yeah, I haven't. Obviously, I think he wasn't too communicative at the point. He was literally dealing with it at that moment. uh yeah i'm waiting to hear was kind of up all night uh worried about that and hoping i have to ask scott did you go disguised as halloween for halloween i did not go disguised my on on actual halloween we wore costumes last

night i actually just wore a bitcoin over my shirt kind of a big foam Bitcoin. So I guess I was disguised as a Bitcoin. It was a pretty funny costume. I wore the same one last year for a bit. But let's actually dig into the topic here. I guess, Mike, we could talk about Invesco Galaxy getting their DTCC listing up today as well, because as I said, you actually were well ahead of even, I think, Cointelegraph are the ones here, I've got the article that first talked about it that people saw. Invesco Galaxy spot Bitcoin ETF joins BlackRock on DTCC site. But you actually, you were a breaking news site, buddy. I never knew that you did that in your spare time.

Yeah, it's kind of funny, right? All of us influencers sometimes use the term breaking for stuff that somebody else broke before you. But in this case, there weren't that many people that saw this one. And obviously, everybody's sort of jaded now because BlackRock, their ticker and QSIP showed up on the site. And then we were notified after the fact that it was there the whole time. And so I think everybody's a little skeptical. There's about 10 or 20 X the breaking news stories is that that are actually breaking. Right. And so in this case, though, it looks like

it was not on that site. It was not on the DTCC website a few days ago. So it looks like in the background, Scott, all of these ETFs are being lined up on the runway to be batch approved by the SEC. I think the SEC wants to be very careful about not giving any specific firm first mover advantage, although I question that because Grayscale has been there for years and they probably should have been approved first, given that there's tens of billions of dollars of mostly US investor capital in that product. But the SEC got slapped on the wrist here. There's no doubt about it. They were playing politics. They were overstepping their mandate to be a rulemaking, sorry, an enforcement body as opposed to a rulemaking body. And they really are just there to enforce the laws of Congress. They're not there to

make new laws, but they've been behaving in a way that they're basically the kingmaker of the space. And obviously, Gary Gensler's spooky tweet on Halloween gives you some insight into just how weird of a guy he is and just how strange his thinking is. So we'll see what happens. While he was talking, while you were talking, I was like, I got to get the Gensler tweet. And that's literally what I was doing, which I brought up right here. If Satoshi Nakamoto went as Satoshi Nakamoto for Halloween, would we be able to tell happy 15th anniversary to Satoshi's famous white paper that started crypto? Any crypto companies that are tricking investors to start treating them to compliance with the securities laws.

The guy couldn't even say how excited he was about Bitcoin without making sure to make a point that he thinks everyone else is not compliant and that it's a problematic industry. The guy is just. The joke is pretty good. The joke itself is not bad. It's what comes after the joke. That is just so cringe. I mean, what? Yeah. So but Noel, I mean, do you agree? I think we have somewhat of a consensus. Is there even a contrarian view here that we're going to see a slew of these approvals, whether it's BlackRock first or or GB or Grayscale?

I mean, are we really just going to get eight or 10 of these lined up by January 10th and we're going to move on? I mean, it's my feeling at this point that it's actually, Gary will find a way to skin it as a positive, a win in his favor that he gives us this Bitcoin approval and then he'll probably continue his same sort of tactic against the rest of the industry. Yeah, or just pretend that it's a big nothing burger. Let's move on and tackle some more of these crypto frauds that we hear so much about. Right. I do hear from quite a few of the TradFi people I speak to that no way in hell are we going to be getting a Bitcoin spot ETF. I disagree, obviously.

And I think the signs that we've seen just over the past few days are definitely pointing to the direction of an approval. And I think it's going to be quite soon. I've heard a lot of feedback of what you posted this morning, Mike, that this DTCC thing is, you know, it's nothing, no one should get excited, there's no big deal, doesn't mean anything. I disagree. I think it does mean something. It doesn't mean that approval has been given, but it does mean that both Invesco and, of course, BlackRock, you know, which are massively massive for this, but then this is even more trivial. It does mean that they are very confident that this is coming. And we know that they are in dialogue with the SEC, which itself is a huge change from the last time we were in this situation.

They are in dialogue. I don't think they would have gone through the hassle and the expense, it's not a huge expense, but it's still an expense, of getting these listings on the DTCC without being pretty darn sure or without even having had a nod that approval was coming. They are not about to start trading, but they're getting ready to start trading. I don't think that is nothing. It's definitely a major change in tone, even to be asking these companies for updates, to be interacting with them, to be engaging. You just wouldn't waste your time doing this if you didn't think you were going to get approved. There's definitely a difference now in the

current tone and approach. Go ahead, Mike. Sorry. Yeah, I was just going to say, I think what's going on behind the scenes is a tremendous amount of maneuvering and political stuff going on. So the SEC staffers who sometimes are operating on their own, right? Because I hear feedback increasingly that there are staffers that believe one thing and they think Gensler is sort of out on a tree branch somewhere with a slightly different view than what's held by most people at the agency. And so I'm sure these large firms have longstanding relationships with people that are not Gensler who actually do the work. And those people are telling them, look, this is going to get done, right? And so go ahead and start filing. And of course, quietly, they're probably

saying, hey, you should get this done now because when we approve these, we're going to approve a bunch of them, including yours at the same time. Because again, we want to be very careful to not be too political, even though everything they've done up until now is political. It's quite ironic, the entire thing. So I hear people's points that occasionally there's a ticker at a QSIP created for a product that never launches, but it seems to be quite rare. And for this many firms to be doing it all at the same time, especially firms of this size, I agree with Noel. I think it's just a matter of time. I think Q1 of next year is sort of the latest. If we don't have a spot ETF by the end of q1 um i'll admit i was

completely wrong on this but it could happen you know even before that yeah and still in the camp is going to happen sometime this year because even gensler's tone has changed when he's interviewed about this these days what he says is i await staff commentary or basically it's not my problem anymore he is getting ready for the public relations, the public relations whitewashing, that he has been overruled by his staff, because after all, there's five commissioners, they vote. Yeah, and they used to say nothing, right? They used to just take the can down the road, you know, and then get to that third time and reject, right, without really any commentary without really any interaction. So I think we have consensus here that the ETF is going to come. The next question, this is, I had Matt Hogan

yesterday, Eric Balchunas, and Steve McClurg, all very deep in the ETF world, and actually ended up with a vibrant debate that went about 20 minutes over time about what it would actually mean when this thing is approved, right? There was sort of the camp that was, oh, we get to a billion fast, just like BITO. This is the most popular ETF launch of all time. Then there was the, it'll be a slow trickle. And somewhere in the middle was, it'll be happening over a month, but we'll still be the best month ever, right?

So we get to 10 billion in a month, but we're not the first to a billion. I think it's all semantics. Yeah, so we can call this the Goldilocks ETF then, right? Either too hot, too cold or just right. That's right. But I guess the question here is the narrative we're trying to figure out isn't whether it will be approved, but what it actually means when it is approved. And that seems to be where there's some disagreement.

Will it fall flat because we're in more of a bear market than the Bitcoin futures launch? I tend to believe that if Larry Fink is out there calling Bitcoin a flight to quality, that he's got a whole lot of AUM lined up for this launch. I see you guys both agree with that generally. Mike, what do you think? Yeah. So I don't think any of what you just said really matters. I think what I've dubbed on Twitter several times, the hand of God, the BlackRock hand of God has sort of been on the bid multiple times this year, both in June when they originally announced the filing. And then again, a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Bitcoin sort of the way it was trading just changed.

It was like a phase shift. And that's before there's a single dollar actually going into any of these products. So I think the perception shift here might be more significant. The flows, let's say the flows are 5 billion or 10 billion or whatever in the first year, that could be quite significant on its own, just given the low level of liquidity in the market over the last year or two. But I think more importantly, everybody in traditional finance globally now has to take it seriously. I even saw Mohamed El-Aryan on CNBC the other day saying, it's quite curious that the 30-year bond is not behaving well,

right? But Bitcoin has now become a flight of safety. He's echoing Larry Fink's words. Did you see what else he said? Two days ago or yesterday, he said he prefers a barbell strategy of cash and Bitcoin. Flat out said it. So this is a guy that you could not imagine saying this two or three years ago. He's echoing Fink's words. Stuff that we've all been saying for five or 10 years in the Bitcoin community is now being echoed and it's reverberating into the halls. And the financial advisors look up to the asset managers and the end retail clients that look up to the asset, look up to the, to the retail financial advisors. Right. And so it's a chain and this approval, if it happens, I think is so much more significant for the broader perspective

of how people view Bitcoin, how they view the entire ecosystem. I think miners, custodians, infrastructure providers, payment providers, they'll all be worth 50% to 75% more on paper the moment it's approved with no flows. And then you have to say, okay, what will the flows actually be? I think they'll be more significant than people think. This argument that Canadian ETFs didn't get flows does not pass muster with me. Canada does not matter. US investors, especially hedge funds, do not care about what happens in Canada. It's like basically a barren wasteland from a finance standpoint. So that argument, I love that argument because it shows you the bears have literally nothing

left in their gun. They're going down. Bitcoin's going to 40, maybe even 45K. And all of the flows from the futures ETF are going into the spot ETF, by the way. Because the futures ETF is completely worthless. Basically, it's what, like 40, 45% of the return of Bitcoin and GBTC, which was an inferior product for a year or two there, now wildly outperformed BTC. That was somewhat predictable in advance. And going forward, there's no reason to own a futures product. It's really expensive to roll those futures every month. Yeah, I totally agree. And the flows, I think, will be considerable to start with. I mean, we saw yesterday CoinShares' latest weekly funds flow report show that the flows into Bitcoin funds

now are the largest since July of last year or something outrageous like that. But more importantly, it's what comes afterwards once the ETF is approved. And suddenly RIAs across the United States don't have an excuse to not offer this to their clients. And that is going to have value from day one. But going forward, even more importantly, and each investor that adds a small percentage, perhaps, of Bitcoin to their portfolio by the ETFs for diversification purposes, because why not? Well, we don't know to what extent they're going to be talking to their friends about it it's an entirely different so level of social acceptance in having an etf that people can easily buy through their traditional channels and keep in their usual in their usual manner and i think most importantly even if rias weren't recommending it before because they felt it was their fiduciary duty not to do so because the product didn't exist now they get paid exactly and let's face it the story is interesting now it's not just gold it's

a sort of a new digital gold which has the speculative appeal and it also has the safe haven appeal that everyone's hearing about which now matters more than ever let's face it so it's an entirely different water that bitcoin is swimming in this time around compared to the last time we were on the way up in a cycle. And that's what people are front running, right? So like a lot of this trading is people thinking that that's all going to happen. But I just want to call out one thing real quick. Over the last three or four months on days of the FOMC meetings, Bitcoin's been quite quiet. It's sort of sitting and waiting. And of course, nothing's really happened since July. We have these meetings and

Jerome Powell basically says the same thing every time he answers the same set of generic questions from the journalist who are in the room. And then we close up and then the market goes down. That's essentially the story of the last four or five months. And today there's a major shift in the way Bitcoin's trading. It's trading up quite substantially in front of the FOMC meeting. It looks like it wants to crack 35. I think it's nothing but air between 35 and 38. And so there's a possibility that we're at 38 a lot quicker than people think, because I don't expect Bitcoin to be trading like this if it doesn't intend to rally going into, again, this is a nothing burger meeting. Jerome Powell is going to say the exact same thing he said since July. There's going to

be no change in the rate and we're going to watch the data and we've got to make sure inflation comes down to 2%, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Everybody watches it. Completely irrelevant. In the meantime, Bitcoin is 35K as I'm speaking. And so this is different. This is totally different than anything I've seen since July. But what if he sneezes at the wrong time or if he coughs with his head left instead of right? I mean, how are we going to know? It's seasonality, Scott. I think people are underestimating how much of Bitcoin is sort of pre-programmed. If you just draw fractals over the Bitcoin price for October and November, like you get the same thing we're getting now,

even with no news. So people use the news afterwards to explain price movements that literally are sort of like pre-programmed. And I don't know if that's the stars or astrology or whatever, right? I'm sort of joking there. I don't know what that unicorn does.

But you can sort of like guess that this was going to happen without knowing anything about the news a year ago. Yeah. And to pull on what you were saying there, Mike, I mean, just look at what the US yields have been doing over the past month. And Bitcoin has been steady. In theory, higher yields should be really bad for risk assets, especially for Bitcoin, which doesn't have any fundamentals to support it other than sentiment. But no, Bitcoin has been steady and trending up. That suggests that there has been buying support for some time now. And what we are seeing is that accelerate

in a relatively illiquid market. Yeah, I don't care if it's BlackRock or someone else on the bid. There's nobody selling. That's just the reality is that there's clearly demand and there's very few people that are interested, I think, in selling at this price, especially with any sort of size. And so we're seeing this major movement up. I mean, seeing Paul Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller, L. Arian, Larry Fink, I mean, you're talking about, you know, four of the 10 most respected economists slash institutional investors on the planet all coming out in favor of Bitcoin within the last two weeks. Something's changed here. But what's changed on the other side is that we're getting more of an uptick from politicians

against it, right? Which I think gives you all the signal you need to know that this is probably going to continue rising. Of course, we've talked this story to death about Elizabeth Warren, the Hamas funding, that it was all fake, chain analysis. I made that very clear. Last week, Cynthia Lummis, a very pro-Bitcoin senator from Wyoming, came out, sent a letter to the GOJ, said, you need to wrap up this investigation of Binance and Tether. We need to see some charges. Then she lost me. Can you hear me? Good. She tweeted yesterday, effectively saying this was a false report and everyone's saying she apologized but i've read this tweet 10 times and she did it she kind of actually doubled down she said basically she made it political she said the democrats are

wrong this was false but after reading that uh i still want the doj to go after Binance and Tether, right? And so we have Elizabeth Warren out there with 105 senators and congresspeople saying that the United States government needs to go after crypto in general to stop illicit financing. And then Lummis specifically saying Binance and Tether, right? So there's clearly a uptick here, I think, from politicians in the United States against the industry. Now, she made it very clear to say it's all. I think it's

a popular thing to do with an election coming up to try to impute politics onto things that are fundamentally apolitical, Bitcoin, for example. So I would have probably preferred as a fan of hers to stick with Bitcoin-related commentary and stay out of the Hamas funding, which has now been proven to sort of be kind of a lie anyway, right? Like there's no substantial amount of funding. The most substantial funding for criminal activity, terrorist activity globally is the US dollar. It will continue to be the US dollar, especially because they keep printing so many dollars. It's a lot easier to get your hands on dollars in the first place. And then it's a lot harder to track them. So I don't know why if I was a criminal, I would ever use Bitcoin for fundraising if

I can use dollars. So I don't know what that's all about, candidly, Scott. I think a lot of these politicians are working at the behest of the banking system. The bank lobby is quite strong. Bankers are going to get squeezed going forward because of the US fiscal situation. The US government and the Fed are going to require squeezed going forward because of the u.s fiscal situation the u.s government and the fed are going to require banks to to keep more of their capital uh on on reserves with non-interest bearing reserves with the fed in order to fund itself and then they're also getting squeezed by this alternative financial system which sucks liquidity out of banks because

if i'm a saver and i'm getting paid nothing and i can move to bitcoin and generate a 50 or 100 percent kegger across the decade why why would I leave my money with JP Morgan? So I think a lot of this is not really the politicians. They're not really that smart. It's the banks and the bank funding and the bank lobbyists that are working in the back room, trying to convince the politicians to attack this thing. Because they can't attack the Fed, but they can attack Bitcoin, right? At least they think they can. Right. I totally agree. Noelle? Yeah. I'm going to come at that from a different vector. What I took away from

Senator Loomis' tweets was, well, I'm hearing a lot of crypto people echo as well. We finally, thank God, or please God, have the end in sight of the SBF trial, one can hope, right? But we all know that there are still a couple more shoes to drop when it comes to bad news for crypto market infrastructure and the sooner we get those shoes dropped and soon as the sooner we can all move on and while i don't have any information you probably might are better informed in this than i am finance and tether are the ones that people in the industry even are worried about so get it over with. Let's move on, rebuild the reputation that this industry actually does deserve.

Well, the good news is that, yeah, I was going to say, Mike, the good news is that Binance is being marginalized. I mean, they're about to literally be passed by the CME as the largest open interest for institutional investment for futures products. So it's good to see them becoming a bit less relevant if they are going to have trouble. They've been completely defanged. I mean, the Binance US entity was revealed to just be a shadow organization of basically offshore moneymakers. So people were sending money, they thought, to a US-based exchange, and they were literally shipping the money to CZ's fully controlled market makers offshore. Very similar to people who thought they were

depositing in FTX and the money was actually going to Alameda directly. So all these things that I said basically a year ago, they've all ended up being true. I never said I thought Binance was going to go down the next day. I just said people, expectations and perceptions of Binance were wildly different than reality. And that's actually ended up being the right call. And if it's the best way for it right call. And people are all over- The best way for it to happen. Yeah. I mean, you're right. It would have been horrible if that had happened overnight. Right. So Binance US is essentially gone. Their stablecoin BUSD, which they admitted later, again, after I made these allegations,

they admitted later, yeah, we will actually, there was about a billion and a half dollars missing. We're sorry. We're better. Their argument on everything at Binance has been, yeah, you're right. We did every single thing you said, but we're a better company now. And it's like, well, that's not the way governance works. If you don't change the fact you have no board of directors, if you don't change the fact that you have no named executives, if you have no internal controls, no audit, et cetera, nothing's going to change. So I'm glad they've been de-emphasized. Tether's a different beast because I'm confident there's massive amounts of nefarious activity that have gone on there over the last five years, but there's no mechanism to easily attack it. And in fact,

I think they're essentially using their liquidity to attack other stable coins, right? Because they're not a real escape hatch from crypto back to fiat. Because if you and I want to redeem our tether, it's quite hard to do it. There are some favored parties who can do that, but most people can't. But you can print tether and then use it to exit via USDC. And I think they're attacking other more legitimate stablecoins. Essentially, if you follow the rules in the stablecoin world, you're getting shellacked by tether because tether doesn't have to follow any rules because they've gotten so large and there's no easy redemption mechanism. Of course, these New York

based hedge funds have tried to short it. That hasn't worked because there's no way to move it off its peg without doing something probably illegal to try to perpetrate that yourself. So Tether can probably continue doing whatever it wants. And I thought it was odd that their so-called CTO, who was basically CEO for years, was promoted to CEO. I mean, Tether to me is not that much better than Binance, but I think it's harder to attack. And so it may take a long time to find out what's going on. I have a funny feeling that though, like you said, Tether did a lot of things in the past, but they're just crushing it so hard right now that they've been able, on the back of massive profits and all of

investing in treasuries to get pretty clean and pretty well backed, at least at the very least. Maybe. Yeah. So listen, I know that we only have a couple of minutes left, but I do want to talk about what's happening at the treasury because it's pretty wild. We all know that the debt has gone over $33 trillion just since they lifted the debt ceiling. The US Treasury cuts October, December borrowing estimates to $76 billion cuts. I love that now they're only going to do $176 billion. But at the same time, the Treasury just detailed their plan to step up size of bond sales to manage growing debt load and higher rates, admitting there's a

price. There's a great tweet here from Jeff Ross. It was a quote, stealth QE by the Treasury. Treasury continues to make significant progress on its plans to implement a regular buyback program in 2024. This last quarter, Treasury received important feedback from the primary dealers with regard to scheduling buyback operations for liquidity support and cash management purposes. Treasury intends to provide an update on the... Okay, you get the idea. Right? So is this... I mean, are we just quietly doing QE here in the background on the fiscal side while the monetary side claims that we're doing QT. Noelle?

Well, not really, because what they're doing is they're retiring some of the most liquid issuances and they're replacing them with, in theory, more liquid issuances. So it's a little bit of housekeeping there. But what is astonishing is the emphasis on issuing now, today, with rates of where they are, long-term bonds rather than the the short term ones, which hopefully you'll be able to roll over at lower rates in a couple of years. That is an absolutely astonishing stance on the fiscal management of the US budget deficit and something that she will be held accountable for in years to come. I imagine I understand in a way why they're doing that. She

doesn't want to have the short terms more than 20% of the overall outstanding, but still with the rates where they are, that is a misuse of taxpayers funds in a way, because this is going to mean more and more of the revenue goes to pay interest in years to come. I mean, Druckenmiller, I can't remember his quote, but he said that this was literally like the worst fiscal decision in the history of mankind ever right mike it wasn't he said specifically every tom dick and harry refinanced their mortgage and the biggest uh borrower of them all the u.s government didn't do anything essentially it's the worst snap food in the history of the world they're still taking out long-term debt at high rates, which is astonishing. And they have to. They have to,

because when you run deficits at this size, they get ballooned. They get bigger and bigger and bigger. And I think that's why the long end, the rates keep going up. And people at first were like, I don't understand what's going on. And then all of a sudden, a light bulb went out and traditional trad fight people are like, wait a second, maybe the debt actually does matter. It's like they're willing to suspend disbelief with the government for some reason. And they won't do it with anyone else. If a company gets to six or seven turns of leverage, right, of EBITDA, and then their EBITDA starts getting squished, what do they do to the equity? They drive it to zero in the traditional markets. But with the US government, the same people look at it and say, oh, it's no big deal. Just the government. That's because modern monetary theory says that

that's a public good and that it's not the same for the government as it is for us. There is some limit to the shenanigans. And I think we may have reached that. By the way, TradFi markets open and Bitcoin retraces from 35.1, 35.2, all the way back down. It's almost like the only thing Bitcoin is that's actually holding Bitcoin back is fears about what's happening in the traditional market. And that's why every time there's a close or an open in TradFi, it affects Bitcoin's price.

It almost seems unnatural, but it's obviously doing that, right? Yeah, and the pickup inactivity in the derivatives market is going to be a big influence as well and going to deliver us quite a few inexplicable moves in weeks to come. Noelle, I have to ask you then, how do we get out of this debt mess? I mean, I see there's a question right here. Ask your guests, how do we get out of this debt mess? Actually, I would say we don't.

But to be honest, we just keep printing money. So this is long term, very bullish for hard assets such as Bitcoin and gold. There is no other way. And what we have different now that we haven't had in previous situations where the debt has been a concern is a weakening confidence that the U.S. can continue to pay its bills. Obviously, it will because the alternative is unthinkable. But it does mean continuing to depreciate the currency. I think it was on Spaces yesterday, but somebody made the point that every time a country has ever gotten above 130 percent debt to GDP, which is where the United States currently is, they've eventually defaulted on their debt 100 percent of the time. Exactly. The confidence is certainly weakening and the political dysfunction in the United States, the polarization isn't helping.

Mike, any thoughts how we get out of this situation? Or is it just a money printer go burn? By the way, it's not really a solution. Yeah, but I think it's more of the same. And this is why I've been harping on the kid analyst and the macro doomers and stuff, you can put up all the charts you want of how bad it's going to get. But if you don't immediately recognize that it means more liquidity coming for Bitcoin and that Bitcoin becomes more valuable and you don't focus on that, but instead focus on how bad it's going to be, this debt spiral and stuff like that. I think a lot of that stuff is doom porn and it convinces people to not invest at all when they should be piling into Bitcoin. So that's my criticism of it. It's not that those people are wrong with all the charts that they're posting. I just think it's backwards looking and it doesn't help anyone make money.

I would rather focus on getting to the end of that analysis and saying, okay, great. We know that. We know the US government sort of fucked. We know they're going to have to keep printing. We know they're going to have to take on more debt. So buy Bitcoin as opposed to, oh my God, it's this terrible debt spiral. Everything's going to crash and collapse and over and over and over again. It's like tweet after tweet after tweet for weeks and the whole time Bitcoin's going up and they're not mentioning that. Yeah, I think you're right. And I think hopefully that this will be the cycle where that narrative finally sort of solidifies in the mainstream. Noel, Mike, thank you both so much for joining. Always a pleasure.

Wonderful to see both of you. And we will do this again very soon. Loved having the two of you together, by the way. Incredible. It was fun. It was fun. Thank you so much, Scott. And great to see you back.

Yeah, thank you. There's also a quick video clip when we were talking about the politicians. I just want to show you guys. It's been going around very recent. If you're wondering if Elizabeth Warren really wants to kill this, check this out. Last year, you wrote that, quote, in their attempt to avoid being traced, illegal actors have adopted ever more sophisticated cryptocurrency technologies, such as non-custodial wallets. So sophisticated. So basically saying here that self-custody is the enemy. I wonder if she knows in this ever sophisticated technology that it's literally just 12 words that people are writing

down on a piece of paper and hoping they don't lose it. Very sophisticated. Very sophisticated this self-custody thing. But this is an all-out war. But at the end of the day, I think it's one that they're going to lose. Now, this is perfect timing for Chris Inks to show up today because we've got some pretty exciting and I would say interesting price action. People might not know while we were doing that, Bitcoin actually just made a brand new yearly high by about an inch and then immediately got rejected and came down. But it did just make a high. It looks like it went to about 35207 when the high was 35157. Pretty interesting price action here, wouldn't you say?

Yeah. I mean, nothing we haven't been looking for. Everybody, I think, pretty much saw the consolidation coming in over the last week, whatever it's been there. And that should be expected because we had such a strong move up coming out of the sideways here. So, you know, again, big move up, some sideways, big move up, some sideways, big move up, a little sideways there. I mean, you got to give the market a chance to kind of breathe. You know, I like that it's above the uh the daily pivot there uh you know for november um you know i i still think we just kind of keep rallying from here i think it's just a uh stair

step on the way up i don't think we get the retest of the range but even if we did uh even if we did get this retest back over here um it's not a terrible thing but i think if we do we kind of find that pivot area there, which is right around 32, 170 or so on this chart here. But I think this is just kind of sideways here and look for it to kind of continue its way up. Same thing I've been talking about for a while. So I think we're still good on that. Yeah, I tend to agree. I mean, do you think that it's meaningful that it just got rejected sort of at that yearly high like that? Or do you think it was just a quick push?

Mike made the interesting point that it was basically at 35 markets opened, which, you know, usually we don't see necessarily that quick correlation and immediately it dropped. I haven't even looked at what stocks are actually doing. It appears SPY is up slightly. So I think it's just i think it's more along the lines of it's the top of the range there um and usually you know usually you don't get this um this straight up breakout usually it's a rally into the top of the range a pullback and then a breakout so i tend to look at it more that way potentially yeah so basically the first test consolidates and then head up so uh what mean, have any of your targets thoughts here changed with any of the price action? I also did see that there's a bit of a sort of bearish divergence and overbought territory on the daily.

I don't know if you saw that, but it doesn't look that concerning to me, to be quite honest, the way that it's sort of forming up. I think it was fine to chart, but you can see because inevitably you're going to end up with hidden bullish divergence when it drops. So, to me, that didn't really matter too much. You can see because inevitably you're going to end up with hidden bullish divergence when it drops so to me that didn't really uh didn't really matter too much how you can see it there yeah yeah i mean you know and it's just now kind of getting there so it's always that thing of you know i think uh people tend to kind of jump the shark basically they kind of they get to go oh my god it's bearish divergence right away you know and especially on the larger larger time frame it takes a little bit more time to play out um you know and so we can often see this where we kind of see that divergence, but then price continues to head up and it invalidates that divergence or, um, it just makes it bigger as

it continues to go up a bit higher. But yeah, no, I mean, I think, you know, 38, 40, 40, I think we just continue to kind of push up here. I think there's a, I think there's an off chance that November might actually turn out to be even better than October was. And so I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen, but I can see some really good possibility that it may. And I think that's what Mike just said. That's what Mike just said. He said, listen, it's seasonality, October. I think this was our best October since 21, which was obviously massive and our best month even.

And I mean, just doesn't look like it wants to stop. No, no. Like I said, I think I think we kind of just continue pushing up this consolidation right here. But like I said, worst case scenario, I think you get the daily pivot there. Thirty one seven hundred and some change. And, or even the top of the range. I mean, you know, people are like, Oh, you know, the minute it pulls back, it's dumping, it's dumping the, the verbiage used, uh, in, in, uh, social media is so terrible. Um, I really feel bad for people who are just starting to get into trading and trying to figure it out. Uh, and emotions we all know are really terrible in trading, you know, and, um and it's hard, you know,

when you deal with those really emotional words put out there very emotionally. So yeah, yeah, a pullback and then, you know, worst case scenario, we get a pullback and then further upside. There's absolutely nothing happening on this chart. I guess what I'm trying to say, there's absolutely nothing happening on this chart that's bearish. And in the grand scheme of things, this is an uptrend. It's been an uptrend since last November, told everybody to get on board at 15 and a half. People have argued the entire way up and there's still people out there arguing that this is some sort of bear market rally. And I think if you're thinking that at this point, you know, I can't guarantee, nobody can guarantee anything, but I really think,

you know, 30 years doing this, that at this point, if you're arguing that you're really just don't really understand what's going on with the markets and it's tough, you know, it's tough. Do you, how do you approach days like this? I know the answer by the way, but you can give everyone else the answer. How do you approach days like this where we have an FOMC meeting or some sort of announcement? I mean, you and I have talked through trading Forex through non-farm payroll and things like that, where you see sort of announcement? I mean, you and I have talked through trading Forex through non-farm payroll and things like that, where you see sort of this potential of heightened volatility. Do you pay attention to it at all or you just sort of sit on the sideline and wait? No, you know, here's the thing. The trend itself is already in and usually the knee-jerk reactions

we see with news events are just that they're just knee jerk, temporary reactions, people go, Oh, look, price, you know, dropped after that, well, it was already in a downtrend, you know, it's like, it didn't make it reverse, right. And so, but the thing is, with the volatility that comes in, depending on how much volatility it is, you can still get knocked out, right. So usually, I try to not be, unless the position's already been in for a while, so I've got some room for it to pull back on me or something with that volatility. Usually I just wait for the event to get over with and wait for that to all settle down before initiating new positions. You end up taking, I know some people out there trying to make a living off trading news events, but man, that volatility is so bad. You get caught so often.

It's just not worth it in my view. So listen, I think we're all of the assumption that the most likely path for Bitcoin continues to be up. We know that historically when it goes up like this, it rarely gives you that perfect dip or retrace that you want to buy. It leaves everyone behind, kind of gives the max pain scenario of leaving you on the sidelines. What do you make of that for the rest of the market now? We've seen some sort of select altcoins outperforming. Obviously, Solana has gone rather nuts. We talked about the inflows actually yesterday. And today, Noel brought up the fact that CoinShare said there was over 300 million in inflows into crypto funds last

week, which was as much as the entire year just in a week, mostly into Bitcoin. But the other one was Solana massively from institutions. And actually, there's been, I believe, like an 8% or 10% decrease in inflows or actually significant outflows from Ethereum. So it seems like maybe there's a narrative flipping there, at least in the short term. But how are you looking at altcoins right now? I know you're not really viewing them fundamentally, but it seems that we are actually seeing some outperform, which has not happened in a long time. Yeah, I mean, exactly. We had Sol, we had Link, some other ones really did great. We had Ethereum, which, but again, when you think about Ethereum, Ethereum was the one that it bottomed in June of last year, right? And so right when, you know, at this point here is where Ethereum

bottomed and it's continued up. That's been the low, right? And we had the extra shakeout here, the terminal shakeout for Bitcoin in November. So, you know, everybody's kind of like, oh, you know, doom and gloom for Ethereum and whatnot. But the fact is, it was rallying before, you know, it led. He's rallying before Bitcoin here. And so I don't see anything wrong with it at all. I see people just kind of being people and, you know, emotions and not really understanding what's going on. But I think overall, I think the markets are just kind of a lot of these that haven't necessarily rallied really strong yet. I think they're starting to find bottoms in here. I wanted to talk about Ape real quick here, because Lord knows that thing just kept on going, right? I mean, if we zoom out here, there's Ape. I love when we talk about it. It is laughable. We say, look at these big moves

and altcoins. Then you zoom out and it's like, you can't even see it. Yeah. We waited here, but you can see high volume node right here. We we got this we got this dip down here on the uh on the weekly we got this uh bullish divergence uh right here on the weekly coming up at the swing low with that pin bar candle and huge rally up i mean i think that's i think it's probably the bottom there uh for ape uh locally here i'm just looking for it if we can get a breakout above 1.398 i'm looking up here around 1.669 locally as a target. I think if we get that, I think we just kind of pull on back here kind of to where we're at here, about $1.30, $1.28 around there. And then we just rally up higher from there as well. So, you know, probably something along the lines of, I don't know, maybe up here toward $, three 60 or so would be an excellent.

So just kind of up here toward that are to pivot on the daily pull back down toward the pivot and then rally up here to about three, $3.60, which as you can see is this a great little support resistance area right there. Um, so, you know, if ape is bottoming, I mean, I, I think, you know, it's, it's probably a lot of the market is looking the same way. When the completely worst dog shit garbage starts popping, I'm just kidding. Ape, actually, for those who actually follow Bored Apes and believe in NFTs, might have a lot more upside potential, at least than outright scammy meme coins.

Yeah, exactly. upside potential at least than like outright uh scammy meme coins yeah yeah exactly you know you know it's it's it you know at least we've got a bounce at the very least for ape um you know i think we should be at least looking up for a while um you know is it going to hit a new all-time high we'll see but uh right now most things never do versus bitcoin right exactly they might on the dollar there but most of these uh it's very hard to beat bitcoin long term after a cycle so yeah yeah yeah but um i like this um ethereum classic here for those that don't know you know it is it is the original ethereum it is the the one you know the one we all watch is the branched one where they rolled it back um But man, ETC, everybody loves to hate on it. You know, we did good on the rally here up to this hundred plus and it's come back here, but you notice right here, this, this support that we had back here in June of last year, you know, I mean, it's just this amazing area of support

resistance right here, rallied up strong pullback. And then we see all this volume. Now, if we look here on this pullback, when you get down toward the low here and here and here, that's where your volume starts picking up. So you've got this buying kind of going on in those areas as you get to the lows. And significantly here as it tried to push down, he just let this long wick went sideways and now we're breaking out higher. So, I mean, you should be looking up on that. We're about to break through this, what is this, descending resistance from September of last year. I think initially we easily have a target here at $21.80. But I think we go beyond that. We hit $41.37. And then I think we're up here at around $108.54. And I do think it breaks out. If Ethereum is breaking out, ETC should follow with it. And so I think it's just a great setup here on this weekly, how clean this was.

High volume node right here, getting in through that, get ready to pop out higher. Yeah. I want to really quick talk about that ETH BTC chart. Just something worth pointing out, because this can be sort of a bellwether for what's happening with the market. First of all, I think we've seen whether you like ETH or not, I don't really care. I'm not going to speak to that. But it does feel like there's been an uptick in max FUD against ETH, sort of the same narratives that we see in the cycle. The merge failed, whatever. It did. None of it worked. It's not proceeding. It's still expensive. All those things. I don't give a shit about that. But looking at the chart here, this is the fourth time ever that it's actually hit oversold on the weekly in RSI. Just does not happen very often. And actually, it's barely a tick. I think this

is actually, except for maybe right here, is the lowest it's ever been on weekly RSI for oversold. So I don't care how you feel about it emotionally. You don't have to trade it. You don't have to touch it. You don't have to believe it's a great long-term investment. But I would say it maybe is giving a signal that it can still go down, by the way, but that relatively soon there is going to be a pop and an opportunity, whether you believe it or not, but as a trader to make some money probably getting long ETH, especially if you think that Bitcoin is going to continue up in that period. Yeah. I mean, nothing's happened here that didn't happen back when GBTC hit the low, back when Facebook hit the low, back when, I mean, just all these, right?

Solana hit the low. And every one of these, I kept saying, listen, and I felt like a broken record. I was like, this is the sentiment. People come out here, new traders, they come out here on social media and they're like, oh yeah, you know, everybody in my feed is bearish or bullish. And so that means it's this, no, what you want is what you're hearing now, this where it's just absolutely everywhere. Everybody's kind of given up on it. It can't possibly rally. It has to go into, into nothingness. This is the time where it's usually marking the lows, um, in the charts. You know, again, it was Bitcoin at 15 and a half. It was Solana at, you know, eight, nine dollars there. It was, you know, Link on the drop back

there this summer when it dropped below the range, five dollars. You know, Facebook on that big move down, which has basically retraced everything now. GBTC at its low. You know, everything I kept saying, listen, this is the time. Bye, bye, bye, bye. And then, you know, people didn't really listen, but it's hard to, because you're emotional, right? You're emotional and everybody's, oh my God, the sky is falling. That's such a big thing with social media. Every time something happens, the sky is falling. Um, but you know, once you, once you've been through it, you know, sometimes when you're really paying attention, you start to notice those are the actual sentiment, you know, indicators that you're looking for. Um, and not, not the, not the algo done, you know, algo driven. These are the accounts you should pay attention to on social

media things, you know? So yeah, I think Ethereum, uh, is probably gonna rally up here. Um, I, I don't, I mean, could it drop down a little bit lower? Sure, it could. Ethereum, Bitcoin, sure. But I think overall, it's probably much closer to a rally than not at this point. And I think when it does, it's going to catch a lot of people on surprise. I've been watching the dollar at all. Actually, I just happened to bring it up. Someone said it was going parabolic in the chat. So I decided to look. I don't know what people's definition of parabolic is, but they're saying it, but it does look like the dollar is actually breaking out, kind of have this bull flag here. It's pushing up. But interestingly, it seems to be an everything rally. SPY is up

at the same time. QQQ I've got here way up at the same time. I usually don't see the dollar rallying alongside stocks. So sort of maybe this is one of those weird FOMC day scenarios, but a bit surprised to see that. Well, again, as I always point out, they don't always... It's not like, oh, the second one turns, Bitcoin turn or the second, the dollar, the DXY turns, then stocks turn or something. There's always some overlap in there and as people are changing money in and out, right. You know, right here, we're still kind of, you know, we had that initial target right up here. If we do break out higher, we got another target up there about 108.6 or so. No big deal at the end, you know, at the end of the day, we're looking at,

you know, we basically hit a 50% retracement. So I'm looking at this as a, as a one, and then an A, a B and a C here is a two, but that's even if we break out here, we haven't even broke out here yet. Um, from that swing high back there, uh, beginning of last month. So worst case scenario, we move up here a bit, 70 and a half is 110 and a half. 78, six is 111.68. Um, still very valid wave two targets. Um, but you but you know again big picture is still nothing's changed here it's still the same thing that i've been talking about seems like forever in a day um you know looking at potentially a one two here but if we did happen to get up toward the top of this range i'd start considering the idea that we still have one more push higher to

about 125 or so uh to finish out that wave C of B there. And then we get the move down. But until we do, if we're getting rejected here, you know, this is just one, two, three down here at around 75. And, you know, most people have a hard time seeing that, have a hard time accepting that. But, you know, everybody had a hard time accepting that this was the low down here when I was talking about that, gave that 114, 115 target. Again, people, we're humans, we're full of emotions. Most of the time, we don't even recognize that we're acting emotionally. And so as a trader, that can be really difficult to make money with because you have to recognize when it's going. If you're trading emotionally, you're going to lose money, right? Yeah, absolutely. Anything else that you're looking at at the moment?

Let me see here. I've got this back over here. I do have Gala. Gala looks kind of interesting here. So Gala did this big move back down and retraced more than Ape did. But as you can see here, we've kind of got this range right here. We have the dip below the spring here. We've got the volume on the breakout, large candle spread, large volume. So looking for us to break out higher here, that gives me this target up here, but around you know, six to seven cents area up here is initial target. And I think if we hit that honestly,

I will probably pull back, but I think we break out higher as much, but for now I think we do out higher um as much but for now uh i think we do a bit of a pull back here and then we look for this rally breakout higher and kind of head up toward there um oh this was uh something i hadn't heard about but i just saw the chart um w-e-m-i-x-u-s-d-t it's on kucoin never heard of it we're yeah we're deep down the curve now i like it though there's a market's actually we mix i think that's something that djs do yeah exactly right with a speech impediment a we mix yeah um i think if we break out above the swing high here at uh 1.3198 i think we break that i think we're probably looking up here about 1.868 on that so a little bit more local target there um but i'm sorry all i can think about when you just

said that is the princess bride marriage oh no i mean uh uh excuse me uh oh god my brain not working not uh wait you you guys know anyways uh space balls there you go um yeah egld here is something we've talked about before and uh we were looking i was looking for a rally up out of this green area here and we've gotten that we've got a uh again uh volume strong volume spike expansion here as we broke out big candles resistance there yeah so i think we kind of continue up higher at least to 38 dollars um and then i think we hit that obviously we're going to just kind of keep on going up here toward 51 and then break out there really kind of gets us on this move through all this here up there potentially toward 130 on that so again you know all these i think a lot of these are starting to get those bottoms done and starting to get some rallies off them.

Um, so yeah, you know, I don't worry about a whole bunch of the, you know, what's talked and what's going on and, you know, everybody talks about supply and all this other stuff, but it's funny cause the people are talking, I don't think they paid attention. You know, it doesn't have, it doesn't have a lot. I mean, look at XRP, right? Look at the, look at the supply out there of XRP and it rallied up there well over $2.50, $3 back there, right? No, it's not possible. It's not possible. And yet it did, right? So I think people worry too much about metrics that don't really matter a whole lot when

you're in a speculative market here. People are buying because they expect it to go up and uh you know sell it to somebody else at a higher price i'll take it i i'm just mad at myself i i i'm on so little sleep that i questioned the princess bride uh quote which was correct obviously it is the prime marriage is what brings us together today but there is a great uh wedding scene in space balls also at the beginning where he's like, holy match. He's like about to say holy match. Holy shit. Yeah. Right.

Anyways, two great classic scenes from our younger years of classic movies there. But the princess bride one is definitely better guys. Everybody follow TX West capital on Twitter. Check out his discord. Amazing stuff. As always. Not discord anymore. Oh,

sorry. What is it now? I what is it now we got a new platform man members.texaswestcapital.com uh we get it's even better discord man absolutely fantastic wow the new a new custom platform in which you can interact with chris and fibbo swanee yeah i see you over in the chat man you know we got to get you back up here maybe maybe one of these wednesdays we'll do do the we'll bring the whole team together again. Awesome, guys. I got to run. Get ready for Twitter spaces and try to figure out what's going on with with Mike, who's see if he's going to make it to Estonia.

You missed at the beginning of the chat, Chris, but my producer got deported today trying to cross the border. So somewhere between here and Estonia. So, yeah, by the way, border security, I don't know what's going on down there, but they're definitely they're definitely checking on Estonians. So, yeah. So we're trying to figure that out. All right, Chris, thank you so much, guys. Thank you very much.

We will see you back here tomorrow. Peace. Let's go.