The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Rally Cools Down, Will 'Crypto Week' Trigger the Next Big Surge?

Episode Date: July 15, 2025

►► Discover Bitcoin Yield: https://archpublic.com/ Join us live as Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway from Arch Public, alongside Bill Barhydt from Abra, unpack Bitcoin's pullback from record highs amid cooling U.S. inflation data. With "Crypto Week" underway, we'll explore how landmark digital asset legislation could reshape the industry. Don’t miss insights into why major firms like Coinbase and MicroStrategy are betting big on crypto’s mainstream moment. Bill Barhydt: https://x.com/billbarX Andrew Parish: https://x.com/AP_Abacus Tillman Holloway: https://x.com/texasol61 ►► JOIN THE WOLF PACK - FREE Telegram group where I share daily updates on everything I'm watching and chat directly with all of you. 👉https://t.me/WolfOfAllStreet_bot ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #ArchPublic The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high around $123,000 before cooling off slightly, now trading around $117,000. But even with this very, very slight drop or correction, we have a lot of immediate and long-term catalysts that should continue to propel Bitcoin and the rest of the market this time upwards. Here to talk about it, of course, we have Andrew Entilman,

but one of our favorites, Bill Barheit from Abra. We're going to break it all down right now. Let's go. Happy Tuesday everybody. I'm going to tell you something that I've not told you in months. Like and subscribe. I did it. I'm a YouTuber now. I'm contractually fulfilled for the next month.

I've said my piece. Andrew Tillman, Barheight. Welcome sir, how are you? Good, thank you. Good to see you all. It's 6.04 in the morning. Only for you guys do I do this. Yeah, well, you know, we deserve it.

We're worthy, I think. Once a month, once every couple months. You sent me a hell of a text, by the way. I don't know if it was last night or this morning, because I probably texted you at 2 o'clock. know if it was last night or this morning because I probably think I'm a reader. Mother of all asset bubbles coming economy clearly slowing inflation subdued and interest rate cuts are coming. We'll make 1929 look like a mini bubble. Maybe good

topic for morning. Bring it. You bring it. You bring it. That's quite a claim. 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression. I mean, look, you where are we at, right? So the US economy is clearly slowing, right? Consumer spending grew at the slowest pace in a couple of years, right. We've got business activity cooling.

We've got unemployment claims that I think are ticking up now, although I've never believed the denominator for that number, which is a point I've made too many times. You know, I think inflation is coming down like a rock. Investment and business sentiment is somewhat suppressed, although I think the IMS is gonna pick up later this year. So all of this points to interest rate cuts, but in the meantime, asset prices are sky high. So if asset prices are sky high, we're injecting massive liquidity into the

US and Chinese systems, which really is the majority of the liquidity. If you measure global money supply, where's it going to go? It's going to go to assets, right? And so I don't know. I think given the de-dollarization of the the global economy the way we're devaluing the dollar it's just going to create a massive asset bubble right now and Just given the state of the global economy and the fact that the US has no choice at some point That's a institute some kind of austerity. This is not going to end well It's not going to end well. It's not going to end well. The best thing, unfortunately, I hate to say it, but the best thing that they could probably do for the global economy

right now is nothing other than getting the dollars act in order. But I don't think that's going to happen. I think Powell is going to capitulate and I think we're going to see a few rate cuts this year. And I think you're gonna see a big, big asset bubble forming going into next year. And I actually hope I'm wrong, but... Well, we all know that Powell is data-driven. What data that is, sometimes I have no idea. But if he is data-driven,

we have our fifth month of CPI coming in below the forecast. This obviously has happened. So to your point, by the metrics they're using, inflation is definitely continuing to drop. I mean, you can see the official report there. But this is kind of supporting the idea that we will get rate cuts, I guess, September. We will. Yeah. I don't know.

I'm kind of interested in signing on to an asset bubble. Sounds pretty cool to me. I mean, on the way up, it's pretty fun. You know, asset bubbles are interesting. And here's the thing about the United States. They've kind of outlawed recessions. You know, they've kind of outlawed, you know, big explosions to the downside. You know, the Fed and all the requisite abilities to to pull levers and move things around to avoid serious problems have have been kind of the way things have gone down

for several decades at this point. So asset bubble or not, you know, Bitcoin being part of that asset bubble sounds pretty good to me. Real estate being part of that asset bubble sounds pretty good to me. And again it's been a long time since we've had a meaningful downturn both in the economy and in asset prices that has been sustainable. Right, so yeah, we can talk about COVID in 2020,

that lasted about 60 days. We can talk about over the past three years, any number of oh no, something bad's about to happen and the market goes down by six, seven, eight, maybe 14% and then snaps back immediately. We've been in this pattern where there's some level of something bad could happen and everybody talks about it, the market goes down a bit and then it snaps back higher

than it was before the panic started. So, you know, that's the way that I see it. And that's the way that I've seen it happen now for basically 30 years. I mean, ever since the great financial crisis, we've been in a, quote unquote, secular bull market. And there's been really nothing that has quote unquote stopped that train. So there may be all sorts of data points pointing to potential problems. But we'll see. Yeah, we'll see. I had the benefit of growing up in a household with a dad that was a big gold bug.

And he used to talk about the sky falling every day back in the 80s when interest rates cracked above 20%. You know, everything's a cycle. Everything goes up, everything returns to balance, and then it goes down, and then it returns to balance. I mean, that's a frequency of life as far as I'm concerned that's never gonna change, especially when as I'm concerned that's never going to change, especially when you have markets that represent human emotion.

I think there's another thing that comes to mind. It says, you know, I used to hear this all the time. It's like the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It doesn't really matter if we think that the number is too big. The number will be too big when we are not able to force those dollars down the global economy's throat. And I don't see that happening anytime soon. I think that especially if we have a very directed effort, if we print a lot of new cash and direct that cash into innovation, into a new financial system like we're on the cusp of releasing to the world.

If we're the epicenter of that growth potential and we take an additional unbanked 1 billion people and turn them into banked people, that type of innovation and that type of expansion in our top line GDP globally can absolutely, in my opinion, absorb all the inflation risk that we're incurring right now. And the question becomes is when does it crack? Every fiat currency in the history of the world has ever cracked.

They've all failed at some point. I think the average, the last time I looked was like 300 years. So we're due. The question is, is, you know, politicians are really good at making sure the problems don't fall within their term. And if you keep kicking that can down the road, you know, how far can they kick it before it actually falls on somebody's term? And I just think that Donald Trump, I think he is the most underestimated man in the entire world. The guy had the entire media cabal basically blacklist him, and now he essentially has

every media outlet by the strings. It would be hard for me to think that him lowering interest rates or effectively getting them lowered coupled with a massive printing press burr isn't going to carry us for five plus. It's going to carry us through his term for sure, probably halfway through the next term. And so I'm just sitting here going like, with that coupled with legislation like the opportunity zone extension for eight years, I mean, there's a lot of money that,

to Bill's point earlier, it has to go somewhere. So the question is, where does it go? Well, if it goes into strategic development potential in the United States, and if it goes into strategic development potential in the United States and if it goes to strategic expansion of a new financial future or financial backbone in the form of crypto, I think we could see a very large return on that investment, something that would be worth borrowing a bunch of money for. But I don't think we want to borrow a bunch of money and do what we've done in the past,

which is basically give it away to people that we don't know what they're doing with it and we don't know where they are. I think the days of like, it reminds me of all of these congressional hearings where you see these people that have been given billions of dollars and they go, where is the money? We don't know. It was distributed to a lot of banks in the, you know, in the core of Europe. Okay, well, how much did you give to who?

We don't know that either. I mean, it's crazy. I mean, this is just nuts. So I think those days are gone I think that maybe if we could take some of that Those printed fiat dollars and redirect them into something that has a force multiplier attached to it like a mathematical You know scarcity curve I think that's that probably would be a pretty good thing and I do think that we could you know

Eventually if you just take the simple premise that I've used, and I think everybody that has Bitcoin in their life for any significant period of time realizes that debt becomes really cheap to pay back if you hold Bitcoin long enough. And I think the Trump family kind of gets that that becomes really cheap to hold to pay back if you hold debt long enough Bill I don't know if you have any final thoughts to wrap that good. Go ahead. Look, I mean It's very hard. I think the definition of us in what, you know, Tom is talking about is probably the key here, right? So yes, for all of us, we know Bitcoin and tech stocks, and to a certain degree, certain types of real estate, especially here in Silicon Valley, are still a levered bet on everything that we're talking about, right? Meaning, the dollars have got to go

somewhere that are being printed. Okay, we intuitively get that. We know that it's been on everything that we're talking about, right? Meaning the dollars have got to go somewhere that are being printed. Okay, we intuitively get that, we know that, it's been true forever, but I do believe now we're reaching a point of no return. Yes, you can avoid recessions, but at some point you can't avoid the depression. I think that right now 25 is starting to feel more and more like 27, 1927 I mean.

And you know, we know what happened within 24 months. So you know, I guess selling. The other problem is, is that when we say selling, if you're holding Bitcoin, we're reaching a point now where I don't really care about the value of Bitcoin in dollars, right? Because the dollar is losing its value at such a fast rate, we have to start looking at purchasing power parity for some of these assets that we're holding, right? And clearly Bitcoin will increase from a purchasing power parity perspective, say that three times fast. But what does that mean for the average person who's still at zero?

I think that's very difficult for those of us in our crypto bubble to understand. Most people are at zero. And it's my number one job is to get, that's our slogan internally, get people off zero. And so it's not happening fast enough to make a dent in my opinion in what's coming. So it's incumbent on all of us, in my opinion,

to help people get off zero as quickly as possible because it's gonna feel amazing the next 18 months. In my opinion, amazing. Oh boy, but what's coming next is what's really interesting. I couldn't agree more, and that is a mission of ArchPublics as well, is to get people off zero, is to get them trading, get them buying one unit of measurement into anything that they deem valuable.

Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, just start your journey is essentially the point. I think a good pivot from what you just said though, and I think where we could make the biggest impact and what we're trying to do at ArchPublic is aid and facilitate this Bitcoin treasury on the balance sheet type of a notion, especially for private small businesses, because there's nothing that preserves their purchasing power more. There are a lot of businesses that have to keep cash on their balance sheet or cash equivalents on their balance sheet for emergency fund type applications. And I think Bitcoin as that, if you look at the middle class and look at what's made America strong over our,

the course of our history, it's been having a strong middle class. And what's been weakening inside of our own system is the middle class has been weakening. And so how do you build that back? Well, if every entrepreneur, if every small business starts to adopt this notion that Bitcoin should be a diversification tool on my balance sheet corporately, I think that 10 years from now could have an exponentially large effect on America and the society as a whole. And I think we could do that. I think we're on the cusp of leading that innovation and that charge. I guess I hear you saying though, two years from now, the inevitable is going to happen regardless of- I hope it's two years. I don't know. I mean, look, we're clearly in the late stage debt bubble. It feels like a debt crisis to me.

It's not being basically touted as a debt crisis because nobody's incentivized for it to be touted as a debt crisis. Who wants to basically have the public believe that we're in a debt crisis? Who? Right? There's zero people on this planet incentivized for anyone to believe that. So my job is not to interpret what people believe that's part of it, but the majority is to interpret reality. And the reality is that no one wants our debt. We tried lowering rates in September, midterm, longterm rates went up. That's not supposed to happen. So the question is, if we're looking at a 12 month reprieve and this coming September, we lower rates again,

and Trump hasn't convinced anyone outside of Tether to buy our debt, what's going to happen? I wouldn't be surprised if we see another spike in long-term rates, exacerbates the commercial real estate problem, and Bitcoin goes to the moon in parallel. Okay, great. So we're fine, all of us. And what happens everyone else? That's what I think. Anyway, we're going around here, but I think we're in sync on this.

Yeah. In invoking 1927 respectfully seems a bit far fetched. You know, there are significantly different dynamics and different ways that things are handled than they were a hundred years ago. But everybody is, you know, have your opinion and thoughts on things. But yeah, I think we're far afield associated with that type of stuff. By the way, I wasn't there, believe it or not. I know it's hard to believe, but I read and I watch and I don't know. This type of wide sentiment though, the delta here tells me that we're just gonna have good volatility

which is good like if there's a lot of people out there that think that there's a crash that's imminent and then there's another large group of people out there that think we're going you know because I personally don't think we're pre-depression I think we're gonna inflate to the moon and I think we've not I mean when bananas are $350 a dozen then I'll start going hey we might we might start looking like we start looking like Mexico here pretty soon you know that's then Scott please move on but but you know 2007 2008 was caused by this this belief that we needed to inject massive money in the system after 9-11 attacks. Okay.

And we did, right? Interest rates basically fell precipitously and it caused the housing bubble, an asset bubble of epic proportions. And that brought down the global economy temporarily because, and I say temporarily because the US was still in a position to print a trillion dollars, which at the time was all the money in the world. Now we're doing that every few months. Right. And so to say that anyway, you get my point. So to say that, right. It's a big okie doke. It is just, it's not. Yeah, but it's kind of the, it's all relative, right? You go to the, if you're a gambler, you go to the casino.

I've been a gambler my whole life and you go there as a 20 year old and you can't fathom losing $10,000 in a night. But then you go into the high roller room and guys are betting a million bucks a hand. And you know, it's all just relative. The number, it's about the units, right? And so who cares?

Like our kids don't have the bias that we have. They haven't seen what we've seen in terms of the escalation of debt. It's all relative to the people that are alive at the time. So the question ultimately to me is can the can the innovation curve Outstrip the inflation curve and that that would be the question I have for you is That's a great way to put it and I think Robotics perspective Out we could have a depression for a couple of years while we dig our way out

You brought up, you up the perspective of the kids. I've got two kids that just graduated college in the last 18 months. They're actually very lucky and fortunate in that they're one of the few who actually are finding jobs. We have record unemployment for college grads in this country right now.

As a matter of fact, probably the highest since World War II. So, robotics and AI is not going to solve that problem. Right? So- Yeah, I just, I can't, depression is a serious word. It's a very, very serious word. And it hasn't existed in a meaningful way

here in the United States in 100 years. We've had significant recessions, 1970s, as an example. But just as a, you know, as a backdrop, from an investment standpoint, to put us into a depression, the amount of assets that would have to be sold off in a, I got to get out of everything. I'm panicking because I'm concerned nothing's going to be worth half of what it is now. That's not the mindset of every investor over the past 40 years. They've been taught time and time again, buy low, sell when you die, not buy low, sell when it's high. And so, you know, finding ourselves in a depression, very different than a recession. And I think we're significantly a ways off from any meaningful recession. I mean, remember in 2020, we had a guy like Bill Ackman,

irrespective of his tennis skills, getting on CNBC and saying, hell is coming, prepare yourself. And while there again was a dip in the markets to the tune of 25%, that dip was eaten up within literally 90 days. And so markets, market dynamics are very, very different to sort of find ourselves in a depression type of atmosphere would take almost unfathomable collection of actions that I can I just I can't that's a bridge too far for me. Rolling over. It's talking. It's like, I didn't think COVID could happen, but it did. I mean, I didn't think the world could get shut down for if you had told me that prior to it. I think that that's what's

great about the markets. It's the unknown. Could you be right, Bill? Maybe so. I don't see it. It's gonna happen eventually. Well, it will happen eventually. Yeah, in a few years, but it's not, I mean, nobody here believes that the path we're on is sustainable. 100%. By Bitcoin.

It's no different than what I tell treasury companies, every business fails. What would Dillard's look like now if they had bought Bitcoin the entire rise of their, and had a huge treasury? They'd be a different company, and they'd be able to change it. Yeah, they'd have no stores, and they'd own a lot of Bitcoin.

That's right. So we as a country have to do that too. But here's the thing that, you know, if we are able to, if at the same time the dollar being inflated is the reason for the crash, if we focus those dollars, we can change the value. We can essentially create a new economy inside of Bitcoin. And I do understand what you're saying, Bill, is like, yes, then that leaves most of the people out of the out of out in the cold. But it doesn't if it takes 15 years and it doesn't if we do a lot of things between now and then that get people included. I mean, I think Coinbase being added to the S&P 500, that's a big deal. That is exposure to crypto at some level for every US citizen that has a 401k. Yeah, and they just hit a hundred billion market cap for the first time.

So it seems like that has had a major impact, obviously, alongside this run and this, what I love to call alt season of crypto adjacent stocks and treasury. Yeah, it's extraordinary currency too, right? So equity in terms of share price becomes spendable, spendable denomination of currency, so to speak. And you've seen that with Coinbase. They're leveraging it with proximity. They've done a couple of with Coinbase. They're leveraging it with proximity. They've done a couple of smaller acquisitions. They'll continue to do more. And that will happen with the likes of Gemini and as terrible as I hate to say it. But I think, was it DCG or who?

No, it's the other company associated with with with Barry Silbert Genesis, Grayscale, Grayscale. Yeah. So Grayscale, quote unquote, confidentially filed to go public, right? So Grayscale, there you go. You're on it. Grayscale to go public gen Gemini to go public, there's going to be additional crypto companies that go public. So all of that capital wash in the space is going to have meaningful ripple effects across the board. Again, in terms of asset prices, right? So this space will see in one way or another a quote unquote

asset bubble. And as per my comments earlier, I'm more than happy to ride that wave to the upside. That's our job. Just know that. Listen, I think, you know, regardless of whose prediction and timing is correct, as long as you like keep your emotions in check

and have an exit plan, and maybe your exit plan is just Bitcoin and you hold it through the roller coasters, but as long as you're aware that it could happen because it has happened in the past and the current path is unsustainable, then I'd say you're better shaped than 99% of the planet. Yeah.

Yeah, and speaking of being in better shape, we've got Crypto Week and it's in the title, so we all talked about it. Crypto Week, set to be a pivotal moment for digital asset legislation. Matt Hogan, the most literally quoted man on the planet at this point. I went on Yahoo Finance yesterday and they asked me about a Matt Hogan comment. And I was like, he said that on my show.

I was like, he was on this one. So, but he's the most quoted person now on the planet. If Crypto Week bill passes, you can't get put the genie back in the bottle. Crypto is going mainstream, says Bitwise CIO. So what's on the docket right now, obviously is getting genius through and done. But they're also talking about the Clarity Act, which is market structure, which would sort of define what is a security, what is a commodity, and then strategic Bitcoin Reserve

interestingly not on there. The kind of third one that they've thrown into crypto week is a ban on central bank digital currencies. So I don't know if this is, you know, good PR, or if we're going to actually get these things done. But if we get the genius act done and meaningful movement this week on market clarity, I mean, we've pretty much removed all of the impediments that have existed for the past few years. And Bill, nobody I mean, nobody I speak to

on a regular basis that actually still exists has dealt with more of this shit than you. Yeah, I wish that was not true, but you speak it the truth. So I have, every once in a while, I meet a regulator that hasn't attacked me. And I do feel like I should hug them or, you know, like, and by the way, did you eat? A little fruit, fruitcake. Yeah, I mean, I'm still getting caught up you know, like, and by the way, did you read- I'm gonna fruit cake.

Yeah, I mean, I'm still getting caught up because it's 6.30 in the morning, but you know, Maxine Waters, like, you know, this, it just, did you read what she wrote about the genius act overnight? I mean, it's fucking crazy. You know, I mean, it's- It's gonna be the economic ruin of American families,

I believe, I don't wanna misquote her, but something to that. Yeah, unlike, say, dollar printing. If you could use stable coins. Every child in America needs that. Or political corruption or excessive term limits. So the most important thing that we can do as stewards of the space, besides getting everyone off zero, is putting a moat around this space right now

so that this shit can't happen again. And because as much as Trump may have been our short-term savior, he's not a king. Thank God. And who's coming next? I like Vance. He seems like a good guy. He could lose easily.

I hope guys like Bo Heinz, you know, I was pretty okay, Bo Heinz is not going to be president. No, no, no, I know. I'm just saying I hope that we've built a stable full of political horses now, we can lean on political horses, because they're going to have other problems. Right? I mean, you know, crypto is, believe it or not, not top of mind for every politician. What? So we think it should be, but it's not. And so, but when I say emote,

I'm not talking about the people, I'm talking about very clear legislation, tested Supreme Court cases, vis-a-vis tornado cash, that we can point to that make it crystal clear that not only are we not going away, but it's been codified into law, into, you know. 100%. Yeah.

You can't just depend on like a friendly regulator right now or an executive. No, the participant is being- Does those get reversed the next time someone comes in. 100%. So very clear legislation in Washington DC are basically an oxymoron. So that's a reality.

What also is the reality is two years ago, and again, Bill knows this, we were beyond crypto winner. We were crypto hell basically, like Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF. We're probably good to go. And then everything else was illegal. Like literally everything else was illegal. So now we're in a position where crypto week actually exists.

What do we get out of it? Probably some land of misfit toys at the out of it? You know, probably some, you know, land of misfit toys at the end of it, which may not be clear legislation, but it's, you know, 100 miles away from where we were two years ago. Now, what does that mean for where we are three years from now or five years from now? That's a different conversation, but you know.

It'll be a pendulum swing both ways and it'll become more rational as time goes on. That's how it works. So, you know, the reaction to the suppression that we've had is free for all. And you know, Trump coin, whatever you want to call it. But I mean, I'm a big fan of Bill's. I didn't know Bill from Adam until this podcast today, other than the fact that I've been a user of his product since 2018.

And I love, I love builders. I love people like Bill who are trying to make it easier for people. He made it easier for me on my journey for sure. And so the question is, is now that the the lid's been taken off, the innovation that's been that I've been personally seeing that's coming out of this community is jaw-dropping. You talk about integrating financial systems, we ain't seen nothing yet. Like I've told somebody this, this is the analogy, you know, we've we just drove across the Nevada line and we're at the gas station looking at the four slot machines in the back of the gas station going this has got huge potential Vegas hadn't even been built yet in my opinion.

So I just think that if we play our cards right, we're going to see the innovation take place at such a pace that's going to let VC money continue to funnel in. And I think Andrew made a very sly but very important point earlier about, you know, these new crypto fortunes that have been found and now are in the possession of companies like Ripple. Where do you think all that money is going to go? It's going to go into mergers and acquisitions. I mean, it's going to go into broadening the network. It's going to go into building infrastructure. It's going to be going into making it easier to get people to own crypto,

just like Bill's mission was. So it's just, it's no, like, honestly, in my opinion, and this is completely from an outsider, Abra was Exodus before Exodus was Exodus, and it would be bigger than Exodus if it wasn't for the fact that he had to cut through the jungle with a machete versus a bulldozer. That's how every market is birthed. Every market, point at it. Napster, now we got iTunes. You can't have this type of disruption in any market segment and not expect for legislation

to be very slow in their response. And then they'd be over aggressive in their response and then they realize the error of their ways if it's truly good and they'll be the other way and it's you know, We'll find ourselves, you know 20 years from now finally in the middle where we have common sense legislation that allows You know innovation and growth but without all the fraud and monkey business that we see currently going on in the space It all says the check is in the mail gentlemen, thank you for the I'm a user too. I'm just a geek at heart and I love crypto so much

that when I get to talk to people that I've been using their product for over almost a decade, that's pretty, you know, that's nice. That was incorrect. You're not a geek at heart. You're just a geek. It's okay. You can embrace it, all right?

You can embrace it. That's fine. That's fine. Listen, I want to talk about 630 in the morning is not a geek. Look, I think that the mode that I was referring to is a stopgap. Because I don't think any of this is going to matter in 10 years. Right? I think government's ability to regulate shadowy super coders and to regulate information freedom, whether it's crypto-based decentralized systems, the merger of crypto and AI, for better or worse, it's going away. I have a lot of concerns about how AI is basically becoming centralized,

and I wish that wasn't happening but I think that pendulum may swing as well but the bottom line is I don't think these governments are going to matter in 10 years because there's a few things happening now that have never happened before right we talked about 29 before we didn't have the internet in 29 we didn't have bitcoin in 29 we didn't have AI in 29 we didn't have nuclear missiles so we have's maybe a deterrent, if anything. So the things that are- They didn't print money. Right.

Yeah. So, yes, we've had these hundred-year cycles that I do believe in, but the structural differences this time are huge, right? That doesn't prevent the cycle from eventually exploding. The question is what happens after. I'm super interested and excited by what happens after. And it's what my life is all about. So yeah, I think this mode is that we're talking about is a stopgap because it's not going to matter in 10 years.

Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Oh, go ahead. I want to talk briefly about Bitcoin treasury companies, because I have to ask every new person who comes on their opinion every single time we have a show period. And so that means that Bill, you're now in the crosshairs on that. So listen, I've been somewhat critical of the Bitcoin treasury company model, at least

the potential future implications of it. I think it's fine right now. I've sort of differentiated Bitcoin balance sheet from Bitcoin treasury, Bitcoin balance sheet being those who just are like us, right, taller cost average into Bitcoin with some of your cash to hedge against it. And then you have the financial engineering side. So actually I've done a really deep dive.

I've called a lot of friends over the past few days who are very deeply in these guys who are launching them, raising billions of dollars. Actually, they've kind of said the demand is drying up. I don't know if you've seen that. But for the Bitcoin Treasury companies, we kind of had a few that raised almost a billion bucks. Now people are trying to raise a billion bucks and the money is not out there. I like actually

had a personal announcement today, which is ironic because of my sort of critic being critical of it. But my friend Todd Shapiro in Canada as a publicly traded company called Red Light Holland, which is an amazing psychosyllabic company, We've been friends for a long time. He came to me and said, listen, I want to adopt a Bitcoin strategy. And my adopting Bitcoin strategy, I'm their advisor because I said, let's slowly buy Bitcoin responsibly with the cash, not do any financial engineering. And you guys have been debanked because you're in the psychosilabing, you should own some Bitcoin.

He agrees he's a Bitcoiner. No announcements yet because it might be under embargo potentially, but if someone brings someone like me on an advisor, they might tell them to use a certain algorithm to do that buying for a Bitcoin treasury company so that that human being doesn't have to be responsible for it. That's not announced yet. But Bill, what's your take on all of these in general? I'm very happy to help anyone responsibly buy Bitcoin.

I have three, you would probably surmise I have strong feelings about this. I have three strong feelings about this. The first is the part that I love is we help companies put Bitcoin in their balance sheet. I've done it for mid-sized, mid-cap companies, nonprofits, and they use the Abra private model to have a vault for their Bitcoin. They can borrow against it, whatever they want. It's great. This is free marketing for that. Okay. And

I think that's wonderful. Second, I think that the market is not tapped yet. I think it's tapped for these me too companies that don't look any different than the first 150 that Cohen and Ken and others are out pitching me financing. So I do think you're going to see part of the second point, I think you're going to see some consolidation when a lot of the converts basically start getting sold in Q1. I do think that the third point is I do think you're going to see a second and third wave of companies that look very different than just the pure play companies might be baskets of crypto, could be operating companies in our space, right? That basically are generating free cashflow,

maybe generating yield on crypto, that can also take advantage of those markets and have very different set of measurements because it's not the sailor yield, which is basically cleverly using leverage to get more Bitcoin per share. It's real yield, either from a lending or DeFi perspective or leveraging other crypto assets that are stakeable

that ends up generating real yield. That hasn't started yet, that's coming. The chances that nobody tries that in mass are like zero. Yeah, and to your point number three, tell me, I know we have a lot of things under embargo, so I never know what we can talk about or not. But I will say that generally, I think a lot of different companies are going to unlock other pools of capital that are not yet involved in this insurance really state all those things. That's right. Why is this happening in the first

place? Because interest rates are so high that it's enabled the traditional debt markets, vis-a-vis what Saylor came up with to play. And even if the Fed lowers rates another 1% in the next six months, which that might even be aggressive, they're still historically high. So from a convexity perspective, bonds might be more short-term attractive than they were before, but my guess is they're still going to make more money on these converts with the right companies than they are on primary bond issuance. And if

that's true, that could give this model in some fashion, whether it's, you know, hybrid or whatever. Yeah, another year. Now, a, you know, court certified advisor on Bitcoin Treasury companies, which makes me an expert in obviously. What if, you know, like you said, you've actually been working with quite a lot of them. So on your side, it's more the custody, it can be the purchase as well, but the custody and then what you can do with it once you have it. So what if in a theoretical world, there was a really great algorithm that could optimize

the way people buy it on an exchange, but then those Bitcoin were moved from that exchange into the vault by another company that allowed things like this. Would that be something that would be interesting to a Bitcoin treasury company? Look at you, matchmaker, matchmaker. No, I'm just saying theoretically. Yeah, no, that's a Bitcoin treasury. Look at you matchmaker, matchmaker. I'm just saying theoretically. Yeah, no, that's a good point. I think to Bill's point, what really has happened with Bitcoin specifically,

but it's happening with other cryptos as well, is that it's being recognized for its collateral value. Collateral in the debt markets is a big problem. If you take a loan on a car The collateral is the car. It's a depreciatory asset. It's hard to repossess There's a lot of downside to being to having a bunch of debtors Or having a bunch of debt on your books attached to the things that are hard to repossess When you're a bank you're looking for the easiest thing to repossess

with the highest growth potential while it's being held and so Bitcoin and the digital age is opening up in my opinion a lot of people's eyes to the strength that Collapse that it provides as collateral and I think that entire debt markets are going to be forever changed based upon this notion and I think that entire debt markets are going to be forever changed based upon this notion. And I think what's stronger than what we're seeing today, which is essentially a debt cycle of borrowing on the back of the future potential of Bitcoin in these public zombie companies, is a notion where, and by the way, Scott, I don't disagree with you that there's a distinction or you can make a distinction between treasury companies

and Bitcoin balance sheet, just DCA companies, but I also think it's just a spectrum. It's like, how aggressive do you wanna use the collateral to borrow against the future, right? And so I think the strongest play is companies who are very profitable that are diverting a portion of their cashflow in net profits into buying Bitcoin. Why do I think that's the most potent?

Well, number one, there's a lot of profitable companies out there. And if they used it as a forced way to save money and it has the disproportionate upside, you could be talking about Started that's exactly Started with he was like I have a viable business and I don't want to hold cash like it turned into this But I mean that's where most people fall on the spectrum. That's where individuals fall on the spectrum

But here's the puns on reserve for a country falls on the spectrum The issue of Bitcoin reserve for a country falls on the spectrum. The issue is growth. That's right. Here's the punchline though. I think VC firms are going to understand that they can buy, if they can get a commitment from a company that is highly profitable and very quickly expanding to become a treasury company and divert 10% of their net profits into Bitcoin. They are better collateralized against lending them money and writing a bigger check against that expansion potential.

That is going to be a huge innovator, a difference in innovation pace. We're going to be able to innovate through that curve much more quickly because the capital is going to have better collateral to lend against. That is, I think, something that is going to unlock itself. And the companies that are going to find the sweet spot are the ones that say, you know what, we're going to dedicate, when we can afford to dedicate 40% of our net profits to Bitcoin, 50%. Why?

Well, because if I'm a VC and I go, okay, I want to own as much Bitcoin as I as I can What's the best way to do it? Well, it's to buy it incrementally over time Well, if I have this business that's producing cash and I'm buying quarterly or monthly with that net profit I'm DCA on the back of profits There's no downside and only large large upside and we've done a lot of case studies for companies that have even as high as a 25% profit margin. And then putting 10% of that net profit into Bitcoin doubles their profit margin in eight years if you play the last eight years out. So it's just too much upside to ignore for basically zero exposure.

I mean, very little. Yeah. basically zero exposure, I mean, very little. Yeah. I'd like to see higher growth companies starting to adopt this. The issue that we've had is, the only high growth companies adopting this strategy right now are crypto native companies. Everybody else is either zero growth, low growth,

regardless of where their profits are, right? Sailor included, right? I mean, he was on a zero or a low growth, regardless of where their profits are, right? Sailor included, right? I mean, he had, he was on a zero or negative growth trajectory when he started buying, buying Bitcoin, um, until now I have not seen any traditionally like what we would call high growth, fast growth companies adopting this strategy. And it's partially because the perception is they didn't need to, where they don't need to, or they don't need

to. And if that changes, then that's going to be... Well, it's changing, Bill. Forty percent of my time is spent talking to those types of companies now. In fact, we have, I think, the fastest growing franchise that we're going to be announcing here soon that has adopted a, we're buying $10,000 of Bitcoin per store and we'll keep doing that as many stores and they've you know they've got they're going public in six years and has a thousand store potential so these and these are cash flow positive from day one so we're going to

be announcing some really exciting stuff and if you put a Bitcoin treasury model and you put the last five years of historical performance onto these growth curves. It's exceptional. I mean, it gets you excited to write checks again. I can promise you. Yeah. The other thing that's interesting to me is outside of 21 million, which I think is mostly Tether's Bitcoin, the majority of these companies haven't bought the Bitcoin yet because they're still in S4 registration, right? Sorry if I'm using the wrong legal terminology. And that's all going to come to ahead in most likely in between now and end of Q1, as these SEC approvals roll off the nerve of your tongue and they have to start buying via these pipes.

I heard the same. I heard actually a lot of these quietly are having a lot of trouble with the SEC getting official approval, whatever the process is to change their business. Cause you can't just, you know, if you're a publicly traded company that, you know, as reported as a certain kind of company, you can't just change your entire business model outright without permission.

Right, so that's the back advantage because you can do whatever you want in theory as long as you document it correctly. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know what that looks like, but to your point, I think, you know, we've seen small buys, but when someone says I'm raising a billion dollars

and then they make an announcement, they bought $10 million worth of Bitcoin. Yeah. Where's the rest of that going? Right. Yeah. Andrew, any takes on this? My take is, you know, when the dust settles, balance sheet companies are gonna be the cream of the crop.

Again, we're going to see a bubble on the treasury side. It'll probably be fairly short-lived. I also don't think the fallout is going to be as, you know, world ending as some people think on crypto Twitter. I just think that shareholders of the ones that fail get rents. It's true. Yeah. Welcome to free market. Yeah, those are risks of investing.

If you're investing in anything, there's no guarantee of any meaningful return. But I think, again, the individuals, the entities that are left standing will gobble up what's left of some of these companies. And it's not a surprise to me your thoughts on hearing that some of the capital is drying up. Because people are, are again taking a look at the quote unquote fundamentals of what does this look like over a three to five year period?

Is it worth it? We're also competing with people who just wanna buy Bitcoin, right? You're trying to convince them to buy something else for Bitcoin exposure and you just buy an ETF for Bitcoin. So the realities of Nakamoto going from a dollar, pre-transaction to whatever it was at 27 or 30 and wherever it is now.

Yeah, that's meaningful, but at the same time, where is that going to be in six months? It's probably not going to be at $27. It's going to be at a fairly muted share price. So, you know, are people trying to capture, are there transactions trying to capture that 1 to 27 in this, you know, moment in time? Sure there is, but at some point that goes away. Bill knows this, Tillman knows this. The organizations that are also doing these transactions, doing these RTOs. Everybody on Wall Street knows that an RTO is about, it's about as based and as low a transaction as you're gonna find on Wall Street. These are not the kind of investment banks slash transactions that are being done at Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs. They won't touch any of this stuff. They won't touch any of this stuff because it's a reputational risk. RTO is a reverse takeover for people who don't know. That's what you're saying here is when you go take basically a zombie company and you plow yourself right into it and you become that company. Kindly, I'm doing that. You could do that to the tune of two or seven or even 10 billion dollars

and again Morgan Stanley Stanley Goldman Sachs, safety Morgan, they're not going to touch that transaction. They just won't. So there's a limited life cycle and capital available to this trend and the balance sheet idea is going to be. Yeah, I would agree with you guys. I really quickly tell them, I just don't wanna keep, Bill, I kept you like way over time.

So I just, you know, if you gotta go, let me know. Yeah, 30 minutes. Look, I think the, sorry, there's a pause. I think this entire kind of flywheel is simply perpetuated on these debt markets or convertible markets, being able to sell at a higher MNEP than you know what they're pricing These deals at which can incentivize them to simply convert and then you know

Most likely sell since they're not really motivated long term buyers at least not yet, and I don't think that's gonna change I don't think they're gonna become motivated long-term buyers So, you know, I think that right now they know that they have a much better chance of doing that with micro strategy, right, versus some upstart with a management team they've never heard of. But if that team is actually able to generate Bitcoin on their own, via profits or yield or lending net interest margin. That's, you know, and, and so I do think we're going to see a wave. And I don't think the stock price ultimately is going to be reflective of how

interesting that is over the next year, because there'll be a bubble and then there'll be a crash most likely in that stock price, but remember Coinbase listed at a high and was down for like, what, 18 months, two years? And so I wouldn't be surprised if some companies get kind of caught up in that, but if they have viable businesses, then see all time highs in three or four years. And my final point on that,

so in my sort of bearishness or skepticism about that, as I said, I called a bunch of people, I called Mark Moss yesterday, a lot of you might know, and he's pretty active in this. And he made a really good point that kind of made me feel a little bit better about it. He said, even if you're the dummy retail person who buys at 10X NAV on one of these at the top in FOMO, he's like, at least this time, A, you have disclosures, transparency, you

know exactly who it is, you know exactly what they did because it's public traded. He's like, but if you just wait long enough, you're only doing this because you believe the price of Bitcoin is going up generally. So actually you'll catch up. If you buy it at 4 to MNav and it goes to two, but Bitcoin goes up in three years enough, it's not a losing investment. So yeah, I hadn't really thought of that part of it. As long as they hang on and exist and you know The Bitcoin goes up with time you actually end up doing So yeah, I'm gonna let you go right now I'm gonna you're gonna get an email with all three of us and and yeah, they're not to be named people. All right, man

That's good. Thanks Obviously, we gotta do look look, I gotta do the, Hendry, you didn't send me a message to do the thing. Yeah, sorry. I'm doing good. Sorry, my bad. I'm terrible at this. Yeah, my bad.

I didn't tell me what to do, but I wanna show something. It's right here, one second. I'm gonna get there. This is you guys selling Bitcoin, the algorithm, not you guys, because you guys are idiot humans, but the algorithm that you idiot humans created that's much smarter than us sold Bitcoin, I don't know what price you got here, $112,300?

Yeah, it's $122,300. And also that happened at like 445 in the morning. So our stock arbitrage strategy, our six hour arbitrage strategy pulled that off yesterday. And again, just extraordinary work by our team and frankly from the mind of Tillman to have tools that again, any institution would be, to have tools that, again, any institution would be thrilled to have, the ability to buy at $77, $78, $79 when we're at the tariff panic level,

or to buy at $98, $99 when we're at the US just bombed Iran panic level. And then the temerity to be able to pull off, you know, we're at a pop off high of 122, 123. So let's take a sliver off and generate some cash yield. You know, those things, the ability to do all of those things, you may be a human and you may be able to say You know what this terror stuff's overblown i'm buying at 77 78 79 80 i'm going to get it You may be able to pull that off But you're not able to pull it off every single time you're not able to pull it off when you're sleeping You're not able to pull off a cell at 122 and change when everybody thinks

it's going to 125 to 130. So just extraordinary work that we make free for everybody. We always get questions like that on social media, like how is this free? What's the catch? The catch is we're just capitalizing on volatility in the crypto markets for you. And we'll give it to you free to use with 10 grand

every year for forever. That's the... we want everybody to own Bitcoin. And that's the best way we knew how. We charge institutions a fee, and we charge high net worth individuals a fee, but we make it free to the people who can't afford it. That's the best way to put it. We are men of the people. people well like bill was saying earlier. It's like, you know, we want more people to use automation Some people most people have never been exposed to it But if you pull that chart back up Scott, you know, the thing that I'm most proud of is the the curve So look at all the activity and say to yourself like am I taking some profits? This each one of

those sell points represents you taking some profits off the table. It's not selling your entire position. It's just reaping the benefits of large increases in price so that you create more cash during those volatile time periods that are choppy. But look at how many purchases and how many sells happened over that time period. And look at how all of the sells happen at the top of giant green candles and all of the buys happen at the bottom of red candles. So it's a forced discipline that allows you to set it and forget it and the market when it presents the opportunities that meet the criteria for the execution

There there goes it executes on your behalf. And so that little Sell point that we had at the very top of the market That wasn't all of your position That was just the position that was one half of one by and it was in half of one buy and it was in profit enough to take some of that profit and realize it as gains and then be able to roll it back into more Bitcoin purchases. So it's a more efficient way, we believe, to accumulate and accelerate your accumulation in your stack. Bitcoin's not always going up.

So when it's trending sideways, why not use the volatility to your advantage like Andrew was saying? Can we cover it? It is, no, I mean covering it. We're available now on Kraken and Gemini. We have more exchanges to come. You know, the amount of algorithmic opportunity that exists in our sort of universe, both in crypto and then in future. So traditional finance as well as crypto finance, we've got it covered backwards and forwards. So, you know, our team and the service that we provide people is second to none.

You know, we, whether you're on a free version or whether you're on the biggest version we've got, you're on a free version or whether you're on the biggest version we've got You're gonna get extraordinary service from us, which is you know separates us in the crypto space to be honest You can get a hold of real people. You can have meaningful conversations with real people on our staff They will walk you through the process and get you started so yeah, it's we love what we do and the way that we do it and providing people with things that they would otherwise not have access to

unless ArchPublic did them and created them and are now making them available to folks. Think we nailed it and it's 10.01. So let's go. We'll be back next Tuesday. I think I actually I'm gonna bring on Todd from Red Light Holland. Awesome. it All right guys, before I get myself in trouble, see you tomorrow. Thank you, Jenna. All right. See you guys.