The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Rally, ETH Pump, El Salvador, SEC & MORE! | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: December 5, 2023

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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, bro. What's going on? How are you? It sounds quiet there. You're not in like a hyperbaric chamber or... I'm about to go into the sauna. Electrifying your eyeballs or something? I'm about to go into the sauna.
Starting point is 00:00:12 Just finished gym. Awesome. You sound winded. No, I'm not. By the way, I met a really... There's a high-profile journalist I met yesterday. No joke. I'll tell you who it is after the show. So a a high-profile journalist I met yesterday. No joke. I'll tell you who it is after the show.
Starting point is 00:00:26 So a very high-profile journalist. And she wants to go come do cryotherapy with me, the cold one. You're the odd one out. More and more people are doing this shit. Yeah. Well, I will tell you the one thing I do is I go stand in my freezing cold pool. Okay. It's not bad, actually.
Starting point is 00:00:43 It's not bad at all. No, it's not bad. It was 59 bad at all no it's like it's not that it was 59 degrees recently so it's not it's really just yeah you can't just make up your own your own metric systems in the u.s and expect us all to actually uh i don't know if you know this but everything the united states does is right and everything you guys do elsewhere is wrong you take the british language and the the British metric system and then just go create the US and then make up your own accent and your own metric system.
Starting point is 00:01:09 We literally don't even know how to speak a second language, any of us. None of us. It's because we're all your bitches. We have to learn your language. That's how the world works. I'm glad we've admitted that. Maybe American dominance will end sometime after I'm alive.
Starting point is 00:01:28 But for now, you know, whatever. Man, I don't mind American. The last thing I want is American dominance to end in my lifetime. Then I have to learn a whole new language just because American dominance. I have to start learning Mandarin again. Do you speak Mandarin? I learned it in university, but I don't i don't speak it and i started forgetting it you learned you learned mandarin in university yeah because i was smart man
Starting point is 00:01:51 i'm like that will help me in my life and then in the middle of the i was doing well and in the end of first year i i read a news article about google creating us years ago 11 12 years ago google was creating like creating something you wear on your neck that translates automatically. So I dropped out. I'm like, technology is going to solve it for me. And they never launched a product. So I'm still stuck without knowing that. But I used it in my e-com business because obviously I imported a lot from China. So I could impress them a bit. And don't tell me to speak anything. I don't speak anything. Don't try it. One of us. You're one of us.
Starting point is 00:02:25 Good job. Yeah. But do you want to kick off the show? Yeah, Bitcoin's still pushing. I think that's the big story right now. $42,200 at the moment. You know, there was that sort of strong rejection, strong in quotes because relative not at all.
Starting point is 00:02:43 When it hit $ 42,000 the first time, but buyers seem very, very intent on keeping this up. You know, you would have expected a key resistance like that, maybe some consolidation below, which I think we could still see. But the fact that it dropped so little and continues to push really, really encouraging, I think, for the market. And I think altcoins slowly will start to catch up maybe if it chills, but Bitcoin dominance just actually made a new high. I'm looking 54.58% right now. I think the last high was, I'm looking right now, 54.35%. And now we're back to levels of Bitcoin dominance we haven't seen since 2021, April
Starting point is 00:03:26 2021, which we already kind of were in general. But the fact that it's making even a new high from earlier in this cycle, pretty impressive. I think it's time to focus for now on King Bitcoin. And Rand, Pepe's pumping, dude. I tweeted you about it. Your favorite signal.
Starting point is 00:03:44 Pepe, so that means Bitcoin. means i expected a response to be honest well no no no uh that means that that in any day now the market will come down it's that i said your favorite signal that's my favorite signal that is my favorite signal the market will come down and there's a cme gap of 39 600 so kind of makes sense. Maybe we'll get Gareth to give us his thoughts on the market's reaction after the pump over the last 48 hours. Gareth? I bet you Gareth is short-term short. I bet you Gareth
Starting point is 00:04:14 is short-term short. He's super short $42K, but that would be rational. I don't know that he is, but that's what he has to do. I bet you Gareth is short-term short. You guys. Rational? Yeah. I try to be as rational short term short. You guys. Rational, yeah. I try to be as rational as I can. So basically, first of all, it's impressive, the move, right?
Starting point is 00:04:32 26,000, almost no consolidation straight up to about 42 here. I think we've talked about this before, that it could go as high as 48. Gareth dropped out. I lost him. Yeah, I lost him. I thought it was on my end. But he said, last thing I heard is that he wouldn't be surprised if it hits 48.
Starting point is 00:04:51 That doesn't sound like it. Then he got vaporized. The Bears took it out. Then he said it. He got taken out by the Bears' council. Well, Dusty, do you want to jump in and continue Garrett's sentence until he's back on? Unless you disagree with him.
Starting point is 00:05:04 I mean, I can't read his mind. I'm not sure exactly what he was going to say. I looked at a lot of the metrics before and I saw one guy, The Rational Root maybe or something, post about 47K per Bitcoin. And he basically showed where a lot of the shorts were lying. And I thought it was a really interesting theory about that, that 47 might be the big barrier. And we talked on the channel before about how 40 000 is kind of like a fake number in this case here how 40 is a very big psychological barrier but we broke through as it was like nothing like uh just air which is kind of interesting but right now i'm
Starting point is 00:05:34 just mostly looking at the brc coins like scott said bitcoin taken off and i'm noticing it's such a small industry but the interest is crazy i mean already have you seen the performance of noticing it's such a small industry, but the interest is crazy. I mean, Ordi, have you seen the performance of that? It's just absolutely wild. Dusty, I literally did a show about that now I spoke about it. Yeah, I was going to ask you guys. But it's traded in one narrative. It's really quick. Smart contract narrative, which is tokens like stacks, STX.
Starting point is 00:06:00 And the other narrative on Bitcoin is the ETF narrative, is the NFT narrative, which is Audi and all the Audi-related tokens. And they're absolutely flying. In fact, in the last seven days, the sector is up over 118%. Rand, can you hear me? I don't think you can hear me. I was going to say Dusty. I don't think Rand can hear me.
Starting point is 00:06:24 Yeah, I'm going to bring you down and back up, and you can't hear Scott. But Ordi can be traded as near C20. Is that correct? I haven't really dug into it. Dusty, do you know the answer, how and where you trade Ordi? Maybe not the most crypto answer out there, but I just traded on a centralized exchange, to be honest with you.
Starting point is 00:06:44 Why not? Right, I just find it interesting. It's a Bitcoin-related token, but it's trading on a centralized exchange, to be honest with you. Why not? Right. I just find it interesting. It's a Bitcoin related token, but it's trading on the Ethereum network. I mean, in theory, most coins. I might be a boomer here. I have no idea. Hold on. Scott, can you hear Dusty? Can you hear Dusty or no? Yeah, I can hear Dusty. I just really like interrupting him. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:07:01 You ask him a question and then you're like, why no one's answering my question? Dusty's trying to answer. No one's actually telling me this information. I don't know why no one's helping me out here. He said a centralized exchange, but that doesn't say fundamental. Most coins can be traded on Ethereum if you want to.
Starting point is 00:07:18 There's a wrapped version of it. Do you mean like... I just meant natively. I guess the answer is you just go trade. I guess Unisat, I'm not sure where else, but I don't know where you would use, where you would even do that. I've never tried. I'm not sure why. Rand, can you hear me now? We're just checking the Rand can hear, but I'm not sure.
Starting point is 00:07:37 Yeah, I can. I'm back. I'm back. Okay, great. Sorry. I apologize. Can anyone, can anyone give us a bit of a, a bit, a bit of an update on maybe Scott, you can, sorry to interrupt you, but just on the BRC tokens and the ordinals and the BRC ecosystem, the Bitcoin ecosystem. How's it performing since the pump? So there's two ecosystems inside Bitcoin that are running.
Starting point is 00:07:56 One is the smart contract narrative on Bitcoin, which is like the smart contract, DeFi, that kind of thing. And that is Stacks, is the STX, is the ultimate, Blockstacks is the ultimate winner there. And the second narrative which is running is NFTs or the Bitcoin equivalent of NFTs, which is called Ordinals or Ordi. Ordi is the protocol which does that. Now, both of those narratives are running really, really hard. I'm just quickly opening the numbers so you can see here.
Starting point is 00:08:28 So Audi is up 151% this week. It's up 636% this month, just to give an idea. STX this month is up 86% this month, but it's quite a big protocol. It's actually up 86% this week as well. So most of the gains have actually come this week. But yeah, that's the two narratives that are running it. So as Bitcoin runs, the two narratives on Bitcoin are running,
Starting point is 00:08:54 the NFT narrative and the smart contract narrative. Or just, I guess, the whole Bitcoin ecosystem. I was looking at you're saying specifically two narratives, but isn't it just anything associated to Bitcoin? Because even Bitcoin Cash, I think, was doing pretty well. So that's why Bitcoin Cash
Starting point is 00:09:19 actually isn't doing very well, which is why it's not like the BCHs and the BSVs, they aren't really running very much. If you look at BCH, I saw it early on today, 240. I don't know where it is now. 241. You're right. Which I guess makes my point
Starting point is 00:09:35 even more clear. It's Bitcoin's ecosystem doing well. And I guess in theory, you would expect an inverse correlation with Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV. And I guess it's kind of proven to be right. And anything Bitcoin natively associated is doing well. Yeah, I mean, the Bitcoin narrative is running. Bitcoin Cash.
Starting point is 00:09:54 Yeah, it's the miners, it's Coinbase. Yeah, it's not much. Yeah, it hasn't done well at all. Did you trash in my biggest holding, Bitcoin Cash? It's your... I thought it was BSV. I thought it was BSV well at all. Do you trust in my biggest holding, Bitcoin Cash? It's your... Oh, okay. I thought it was BSV. I thought it was BSV.
Starting point is 00:10:08 I was wrong about you. Yeah, so no, but I want to... I'm just very curious on narratives. I mentioned that yesterday, and I want to... Gareth is back, so we'll go back to just the market in general. But one thing I want to talk about is gaming. I've been talking about gaming for the entire bear market, and we're starting to see a lot of gaming projects do really well.
Starting point is 00:10:26 One of our biggest holdings is a gaming project that's been killing it in the last few days. And I'm just really, really bullish. And I want to see if anyone agrees that gaming could lead the next bull run. I know it's too early to talk about these different narratives now. And I think Ryan is saying, hey, more indicators, we're at the peak. But let's go back to, I don't know, Gareth dropped out again. But would you have Eric here, maybe get Eric we're at the peak. But let's go back to, I don't know, Gareth dropped out again, but would you have Eric here
Starting point is 00:10:45 maybe get Eric's thoughts on the recent pump? Eric? Yep. Can you hear me? Yeah, man. You want to take the pleasure in ruining our party or you agree that continue partying? Eric was busy go over
Starting point is 00:11:02 the main event boxing in Dubai, man. Did you go see him? I was there, man. It was a good fight. I didn't know that Eric was such a, like Eric, until I saw the pictures of you, I was like, I, we always talk through a screen. I had no idea you were so exactly. Then you would be a little more quiet up.
Starting point is 00:11:17 Maybe I only say nice things to Eric regardless. Thank you. It's good to hear from you as well, man. Yeah, so as far as the Bitcoin rally goes, my thoughts on it, I mean, I think it continues. I think December is going to be another general upside month. I mean, obviously, we've already seen some good upside, but the statistics for December are actually rather interesting
Starting point is 00:11:40 just because historically speaking, December has had one of the most, it is one of the most volatile months for bitcoin um especially on upside moves as the average return for positive decembers has been somewhere around um i think it was like 24 25 which is a really interesting number because it matches up um incredibly well with one of my other models that is suggesting that upside continues throughout again kind of you know the month of december and um and that one's kind of looking more like a 20ish percent move um but that's from like august or sorry not august but uh november um 27th uh day so anyways both of those things kind of lining up for me does say that directionality kind of
Starting point is 00:12:23 seasonality um you know bitcoin probably continues to the end of this month something like that i don't think that the rally is necessarily done i think that uh 45 000 is possible maybe even 48 things get really crazy that's however where i would start to be really um really just concerned uh i would kind of look at that that is a great area for you know bitcoin to put in a major high and then come back down but uh for now yeah i think that the rally continues and i think um it continues actually in the near term you know i would love to hear peter's thoughts i would love to hear peter's thoughts on that as well yeah i mean the the trends up i i don't want to pick a top to this thing i'm fully committed to alongside long side for me. Bitcoin is crypto. Crypto is Bitcoin. It's the only game for me. So there's no reason for me to be lightening up. the way down to 15, between 15 and 30. All those targets have been met.
Starting point is 00:13:25 Now, just because a market meets a target doesn't mean you turn around and flip the sides and go the other way. Because markets can proceed well past target areas. But for me, on the whole, for right now, that's the only way I want to play this. Is there any way, guys, is there any way that we could see new lows before the next bull market? Is there even still a possibility that's worth discussing? What's the probability of that?
Starting point is 00:13:53 Yeah, so that's what I mean. Possibility worth discussing. You're basically betting on a black swan. And so the probability is naturally pretty low. So, I mean, if you're looking at it that way, I mean, wouldn't be that wise. I're looking at it that way, I mean, uh, would it be that wise? I think that is quite unlikely in other words. Yeah. I think you'd have to see, you know, if you're looking at it,
Starting point is 00:14:14 certainly technically Mario, I think you don't even start thinking about that until you start breaking just a number of key levels between here and there. You know, I think that, uh, talk of that became n here and there. You know, I think that talk of that became nonsensical, really above 25, certainly above the 30s. But now in the 40s, I mean, imagine a 70 or 80% drop from here, it could happen. It happened kind of during COVID. In the last cycle, right, we saw Bitcoin basically go from 20 to 3000 ish, back up to 14. And all the way back below four. so you know that was a pretty major move
Starting point is 00:14:47 up off the lows and back down but uh i don't think there's a reason to be speaking about it at the moment like if we start trading back below 30 back below 25 or something certainly uh worth the conversation yeah but i think just based on what we're seeing then you know everybody's put out a story today the title is uh that Binance might be peak for US crypto enforcement cases. So we've kind of seen the worst. Yeah, I think what else could there be, right? I mean, having seen what happened with Binance,
Starting point is 00:15:13 it's the biggest platform in the world and they effectively got a slap on the wrist. It's a huge find. And CZ is certainly falling on the sword, whether voluntarily or not. But if you see the worst case scenario become that Binance is monitored and moves forward, what can possibly happen that would be worse than that? I mean, you know, the market was almost pricing in, Binance disappearing.
Starting point is 00:15:40 Matthew, is there, you know, any Black Swan events that could obviously Black Swan events can't be predicted, but is there anything that could happen in your opinion that could bring you back to discussion of hitting new lows for the cycle? Hey, gents and ladies. I mean, the last time there was a U.S. recession, Bitcoin dumped 60%. So if there's some type of hard landing accompanied by suddenly tightening liquidity, then I wouldn't rule out the chance of volatility. Let's say if the ETF flows are disappointing in Q1 ahead of the halving, that's a possibility on the roadmap. But I think what we're seeing here is just Bitcoin dominance reemerging as it usually does before and into the halving. The recent strength looks like it's driven by the spot market and regulated products like European ETNs, not leverage. So we can see these large accumulations on chain from New Wales. We can see $1.8 billion that has flowed into regulated products in the last 10 weeks.
Starting point is 00:16:44 That's the highest since October 2021. We can see Bitcoin NFT issuance is up 1,000% in the last month. So the NFT market is consolidating. Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana are taking share. Binance Smart Chain is getting smoked. We can see Phoenix Labs. This is an Abu Dhabi-based Bitcoin miner who IPO'd today. They raised more than $300 million. This company is now the largest
Starting point is 00:17:11 Bitcoin miner in the world by market cap. And the retail portion of that IPO was oversubscribed by 80 times. So you may have some retail demand that's flowing into the coins who didn't get allocated to that IPO in the Middle East. And the old hodlers are just not selling much into this strength. So until I see that start to pick up, it's hard to see much Bitcoin underperformance into the ETF narrative. So I think the fundamentals are what's different here. Like our subsidiary Market Vector, which is an index maker, has like three dozen digital asset indices. They just released a new product today, which is a fundamental crypto index. And, you know, Bitcoin's the largest component, right? So if you look at the fee market,
Starting point is 00:17:57 there was a time in October when Tron was the highest fee earning blockchain. I think I called it out on this space as being something that was unsustainable. And indeed, that did not last Bitcoin and Ether now ahead of the pack on that. So I think, you know, I like the large caps here into having. Do you think that any of that Tron giving up some of that market share has to do with the new sort of conjecture that Justin Sun or, you know, all the hats with Qualby and Tron certainly, but that he could be next for some sort of conjecture that Justin Sun or, you know, all the hacks with Paul B and Tron certainly, but that he could be next for some sort of enforcement action? The Tron fees have basically been a flat line.
Starting point is 00:18:35 Like if you look at the series, it looks just too stable to believe. So it's, the answer to your question is no, that hasn't shown up yet, but it very well could be. That makes sense. I want to ask you, obviously, VanEck, what do you think would happen? I know it's heresy to imply that the Bitcoin spot ETF could be rejected. So I hope I don't get speared for that. But what do you think would happen to this market if that did, since it's so priced in
Starting point is 00:19:05 that we're getting an approval and that we're getting an approval by January? I think that'd be very bad for the market. But I also think we've got nearly a dozen of these. And you can see from the volume of changes in these 19B4s and S1s that keep trickling out that the SEC is clearly engaged in active communication with nearly all the issuers to dot the I's and cross the T's on these applications. And if there's one or two stragglers who can't answer their questions, then maybe those don't get approved. But I think that would be a big and negative surprise if there were, say, if Black Rocker or, you know, was not able to come to market. Let's assume, obviously, then the flip side, which is we're seeing 90% chance of approval from the guys at Bloomberg, Daltunis, and Safer.
Starting point is 00:19:58 Let's say that they all sweepingly get approved on January 10th, eight to 12 of them, you know, by that rationale. Do you think that there will be a massive marketing battle for AUM between all the ones that are approved? That's something that you think these companies, I don't want to ask you specifically about you guys, but that companies are planning, assuming that you'll get the approval. Obviously, we even saw marketing campaigns for the Ethereum spot ETF three days before they were approved. Yeah, I mean, you're definitely going to see that I'm getting, you know, blackmail type emails from media companies, you know, telling me all my competitors are advertising on this platform, you better do it or not get left behind. So it's definitely going to be a marketing war. Our expectations are about $2.5 billion in flows within one quarter.
Starting point is 00:20:50 And we do that by looking at the flows in GLD in the first quarter and then adjusting for the change in M2, which is like 3x what it was in 2004. So I think there's a bigger demand for, you know, hard money regulated products, and Bitcoin will take incremental share from gold. And so we get to two and a half billion within one quarter. And we see the the medium term market size at $40 billion in flows over the first two years. 40 billion is a significant, I find it interesting you're putting those numbers on the first quarter. BITO, which was a futures ETF launch, obviously it's a subpar product, was the most successful ETF launch in history, not just crypto ETF launch, ETF launch period. They did a billion, I think, in 48, 72 hours very, very quickly. Do you think that was a function of the point when it was approved
Starting point is 00:21:45 in the market, the fact that we were at the peak of another sort of bull rally at that point? Because it seems like we're underestimating the power of a spot ETF if we saw a futures ETF do that much AOM so quickly. Yeah, I'd be happy to be pleasantly surprised. But I think what we're seeing in the spot market and on exchange is that retail has not really come back to this market yet. We're not really seeing the typical leverage frenzy that would mark the middle level market. So that informs our expectations. The other thing is talking to a lot of these regulated investment advisors and wire houses, you know, they're clearly doing the work on these ETFs. But I think it's a limited number that are that are going to
Starting point is 00:22:33 be ready to go from day one. Many of the larger players are kind of, you know, happy to miss the first month or two, if it means, you know, properly doing due diligence on which they choose. Do that. But that's interesting, because it seems like if you're not in the first wave of approvals, you have a huge disadvantage for AOM. I mean, even BITO, I think, you know, as I said, did that billion quickly, Valkyrie was approved within 48 hours and only did 10s of maybe 100 million, you know, 100 120 million, I don't want to quote the wrong number. Yeah, I agree with you. It's a winner take all market. Yeah, no, the on the issuer side, it's a winner take all market or winner take most. But I mean,
Starting point is 00:23:16 from the buy side, the Wall Street, you know, bank owned brokerages, you know, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, these types of players, they're kicking the tires on which ETF they may go with, and if they'll be ready on day one or not. And I think, you know, not certainly not all of them are going to be ready and allocating on on day one. But the ETFs that capture the flow and the liquidity will be the ones that they allocate to on day, you know, 30, 60, 90. Sorry to keep asking questions, but I find this really interesting and this is sort of different insight than we've gotten before.
Starting point is 00:23:49 How do you think on the buy side then that they differentiate? What will they be looking at as to where they sort of deploy as opposed to retail, which I think we'll just see the biggest name, maybe retail sees BlackRock and they're the first to a billion
Starting point is 00:24:03 and gets excited. Seems like that's not necessarily the case on the institutional side. I think in the secondary market, it'll come down to AUM and liquidity. And those who are the largest, this is how markets work is that liquidity begets liquidity. I think there's some opportunity to maybe pick up holders of GBTC who are looking for a cheaper product. So issuers are going to be looking for folks who can seed their ETFs on day one to get the AUM up. But just look at all these products over the last 10 years when two like products come to market, whichever gets the liquidity ends up being the winner. Anyone paying attention, Bitcoin just made a very slight for the moment, but new yearly high by about 30 or 40 dollars from, you know, yesterday.
Starting point is 00:25:00 But, yes, continuing to push around forty two thousand four hundred dollars. Let's discuss ETH, guys obviously scott can you yeah just be gareth is i think obviously he's still up yeah he is gareth was finishing that sentence about three hours yeah the bears they vaporized him when he tried to yeah so it's like last thing we heard you say is that you wouldn't be surprised if we you know there's still a possibility we could hit 48K before and then you're continuing that point. Yeah. I don't know what happened earlier, but all good. So for me, it's the potential that you could go up to 48K. You got your 618 Fibonacci there, and you also have converging trend lines. And you also have the 50,000 even number, right? So psychologically, 50,000 will be a little bit of a stopping point as well.
Starting point is 00:25:51 So for me, it's kind of expecting the approval to come, obviously, between now and January 10th. And then we likely have a spike up into that range. And then I actually think that puts in a short-term high in Bitcoin. And again, I don't know how long it'll be a high for, but I would expect a retrace back down to about 30 to 32 after that happens. It's amazing mentally how good 32 felt on the way up and how horrible 32 would feel after hitting 48. Yeah, I agree. I agree. That would be a shock to a lot of people out there. I think I think the sentiment out there is amazingly bullish that it's, you know, here we are and we're going to head towards the all-time highs in no time at all. And, you know, I wish it was that easy. I wish trading was that easy. I've never had it that easy in my life when I've been
Starting point is 00:26:33 a trader. Peter? Yeah, same thing. I mean, I'm just looking ahead for the next year or so. I think 29 to 32 should catch the lows if we even see that. But that's my buy back in or add point is down in the low 30s. So Matthew, before Scott moves on to ETH, I wanted to ask you, is there any specific narratives, anything that interests you
Starting point is 00:27:01 in the space at the moment? I've talked a lot about gaming and I was talking about it earlier. Social talks is something else that's been interesting. Anything in the Bitcoin ecosystem has been something we've been pretty excited about here. Anything specific you're looking at, anything not getting the attention it deserves? We're just about to put out our 15 crypto predictions for 2024. So you'll see that on the tape hopefully tomorrow. You know, on the on the Bitcoin specific side, you know, one of one of the predictions is that Argentina will become the fifth country to mine Bitcoin kind of at the state sponsored level.
Starting point is 00:27:43 I'm not sure everyone noticed that the state owner, sorry to interrupt you. Oman, Bhutan, UAE and El Salvador. Oh wow, I didn't know UAE is already mining at a state level. Okay, yeah, they own right, it's a JV that they have there with Marathon. So there's definitely state money. Also this Phoenix that just went public today uh the largest shareholder is is the royal family so uh i'm counting them um but in in argentina sorry i was sorry to keep interrupting you but just on the dubai front i'm based in dubai and phoenix was a talk of town for weeks if not months every event i i go to speak at phoenix is probably the highlight of that event. So how has the IPO been performing? It's now the biggest miner, you said earlier?
Starting point is 00:28:33 Yeah, the stock's up 30% this morning, first day of trading. It's now the biggest publicly traded miner in the world. The retail portion of the IPO was oversubscribed 180 times, overall 33 times oversubscribed. So it went quite well. I'm sure Javier Millet in Argentina is looking at this. And one signal that we have is that the head of exploration and production at Tech Petrol, which is Argentina's largest private energy company, who recently announced plans to mine Bitcoin and other crypto with stranded methane. He's becoming CEO of YPF, which is a state-owned energy company. So I think some of those pro-market and pro-Bitcoin energy story will translate to the state-owned level. So we're keeping an eye on that.
Starting point is 00:29:22 Any other interesting predictions that you have? Well, you know, we don't think Ethereum is going to flip Bitcoin next year, but we do think it's going to outperform every mega cap tech stock. But we just think Bitcoin is going to continue to lead this market rally into and after the halving and then value will flow into smaller tokens as they usually do um after that uh and you know ace will probably keep losing share to other smart contract platforms uh with less uncertainty around their scalability roadmap uh specifically referring to to solana there um on the bitcoin side we think nft activity there's been a huge rebound just in the last month. A lot of the larger cap NFT collections. Don't say that here. You know what that does to you.
Starting point is 00:30:11 Well, hold on. Hold on. Let me just finish, right? Since NFTs are a thing, ETH's issuance of NFTs is 50 to one versus Bitcoin in primary NFT sales since inception, five zero to one, 50 to one. In the last month, it's like one to one. So we're taking a shot at what 2024 is going to look like. Maybe there's some mean reversion. But if the ratio of ETH to BTC primary NFT issuance is, say, three to one next year versus the since inception 50 to one. That's going to drive, I think, a huge narrative for like some of the layer twos that you mentioned, like stacks,
Starting point is 00:30:51 a smart contract platform secured by Bitcoin. So, you know, bullish on those kinds of stories. Also think that staking to lightning nodes is going to become a thing. It's not really called lightning staking, but there is a way to allocate your BTC on lightning nodes and earn a return. It's very risky and low return right now, but we're starting to see some protocols emerge that abstract away some of the technical challenges of managing a lightning node.
Starting point is 00:31:20 And that, along with some federated self-custody solutions, it's possible that users will be able to participate in the remittance market from their cold wallet and earn some yield. And that would be a new narrative for BTC. Can we just let Matthew host in the future? Yeah, you're welcome to drop down anytime, Scott. Thank you. I'm done.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Okay, anything else? I'm literally taking notes, by the way. That's why you hear me pause. The Bitcoin and NFTs, the one-to-one ratio, I know they were picking up. I didn't know it was at that level. That was surprising. And what else? What other predictions do you have, Matthew? I've dropped enough off on this. You guys check for the piece. It's coming out tomorrow. What about we bring you on tomorrow, Scott and Ran or Kay? We can bring you on tomorrow and we can go through the piece together with someone from your team. All right. Catch me on DM me. Okay, cool. That's a nice way
Starting point is 00:32:18 of saying no. Have your people call my people and we'll do that. Yeah, exactly. We'll wait for the piece tomorrow. Yeah, exactly. DM me. Cool. We'll wait for the piece tomorrow. Scott, I think you were moving to ETH earlier.
Starting point is 00:32:34 Yeah, I think that Matthew actually just gave us a nice segue. His opinion there, I think, is probably very rational that we'll be losing market share potentially to other layer ones, especially Solana, but that we'll still move well. I think ETH is lagging here, but is a sleeping giant personally. So I do think that this is a great time to start looking at Ethereum because it's lagging. I think that's an opportunity and not really an indictment, but I would love some of the other analysts here or people who are watching it to give their opinions. Peter, do you watch ETH at all? Are you largely watching Bitcoin? Yeah, I'm watching ETH, but I just can't get excited about ETH. It just does not have the rallying power. I see a big rising wedge in ETH, which potentially could give us a spike down,
Starting point is 00:33:23 but I think, you know, Bitcoin would have to have a pretty good correction for that to happen. I'm not a big bull on ETH like so many people are. Ryan, are you there? Yeah, I'm here. I'm here. What excites you,
Starting point is 00:33:37 man? You've been pretty quiet last 48 hours. Um, I mean, look, I'm, I mean, Bitcoin obviously excites me because of an etf i think that
Starting point is 00:33:47 i think that so my thesis goes something like this the best way to get into an etf is with with prices going up because if prices are going up and an etf launches then it's like how can you not have the asset in your portfolio? Like, it is like the best performing asset ever. It's outperformed gold. It's outperformed the stock market. On my show today, I said Bitcoin's five-year price performance is better than the S&P's
Starting point is 00:34:15 30-year price performance. Bitcoin's obviously on a risk-adjusted return. There's only one stock that performed better. That's NVIDIA. And no other asset class performed better on a risk adjusted basis so when you get the price pumping because of the etf into the etf effectively when the etf launches it's very hard for an investment advisor to say look you know mario i didn't put this into your portfolio because because what are the because you know how do you not put the best performing asset the best performing asset on a risk adjusted basis
Starting point is 00:34:43 all of those into into a portfolio so i think the thing that excites me the most is going into a portfolio with the asset class actually increasing. Then obviously, I'm a little bit excited about ETH. But to be honest, I reduced 50% of my Ethereum holdings. And I put 50% of my Ethereum holdings into Solana. And the reason is i i use both i use this and i use solana and to be honest using eth is it's a horrible expensive experience and all these layer twos for me are just spaghetti there's just so many layer twos and i want to use an app but it doesn't talk to the layer to the app on the layer two on the other app and i have usdc on the one but i don't have i doesn't talk to the layer 2 on the other app.
Starting point is 00:35:28 And I have USDC on the one, but I haven't bridged them to the other. And it's just a shitshow. It's an absolute shitshow. And I believe that we're early enough in the cycle that Solana can still make huge headwinds or huge headway into the industry. So I placed a lot of my chips off ETH and into Solana. That said, I'm not stupid i do believe that the east narrative will run because as soon as the bitcoin etf gets approved the fund managers the big money is going to go into the into the etfs into the etf narrative and say look the next etf has to be east because there's an east futures etf which is already trading and if
Starting point is 00:36:02 if the sec didn't approve a uhTH ETF, they'd go to court again and the judge would call them nasty names. But then I'm a narrative investor. I don't recommend the type of investing that I do to most people because you have to keep your finger on the pulse when it comes to narratives. And there's multiple narratives which are always hot so like like um uh um example like like gaming right now is very very hot i don't know if it's going to be hot forever but i know that it's hot right now and there's a lot happening in the in the gaming narrative so so that that's one of the ones that I'm looking at. Decentralized physical infrastructure, or they call it DEEPEN, which is decentralized physical infrastructure. So that's like things like decentralized file storage,
Starting point is 00:36:55 decentralized computing power, anything where we can decentralize and we can create efficiencies through decentralization. So I'm investing a lot in that. The Solana narrative, as I mentioned, the DEXs, the staking protocols, the whatever else. Now, again, these are all the narratives that I'm investing in, but it doesn't mean that it's good for everyone,
Starting point is 00:37:15 for everyone, because I'm very, very, very active in this and I live this every single day. And if you're not and you catch a narrative, but then you don't trade out of the narrative, I think you could be caught a little bit with your pants down. Everyone else can just Michael Saylor it and laugh their way to the bank. One question, guys. Are you guys noticing as well that since we started this call,
Starting point is 00:37:36 Ordi is up another, I think, like 15% or something? I think 15% up. That's on you, Dusty. I'm going to call Gary and tell him. The last like 40 minutes. It's crazy. It's pumping hard. That coin is one of the craziest performances i've seen in a while i mean it just keeps on going every day and that makes me feel like like real bull run vibes where every morning you wake up and everything's pumped another 40 and you're thinking should i buy more or is it
Starting point is 00:37:58 gonna finally get a good correction and every day you wake up and think oh it's gonna go further again or is this finally yeah the give me fomo vibes so you know so like to be honest this is like my fourth cycle and probably my third altcoin cycle that i'm going into now and i've learned lots of lessons one of the lessons that i've learned is that the bees will come to a narrative they will suck all the pollen out of the narrative, and then they will leave to the next narrative. And right now, this Audi narrative is hot. And it can carry on running for a few more days, but I think to me,
Starting point is 00:38:33 it just feels like it might be a little bit too late. And I kind of want, like, I feel a little bit uncomfortable doing it, to be honest. You mean going for it now, for all the stacks and whatnot? Yeah, I mean, yeah, just it feels to me like when something's done 7x in a month. Scary.
Starting point is 00:38:51 Scary. Of course that's scary. But that's, again, what I said. In a bull run, you've got that similar type of behavior, though, where the prices just keep continuing on. I mean, now, if Bitcoin, for example, gets another rush going, like I think Gareth said earlier, and we actually see 48, I do believe things like Ordi will probably still get another crazy return going because it's still relatively quite small. I think it's like 60th position still.
Starting point is 00:39:15 So 1 billion market cap. And if Bitcoin doesn't hit 48k, if it doesn't hit any higher than where we are now, what happens to Ordi then? It's important to kind of mention the flip side of that yeah yeah so change your mic I got him too he was saying some bearish stuff people didn't like it they took him down
Starting point is 00:39:37 if bitcoin doesn't hit those 48k levels or 46k or even 44k we start retracing from now and what happens to audio they'd lead the way down significantly so i think it's important to mention that flip side as well i mean if you're worried about speculating on any single brc20 or bitcoin uh token you know why not just own bitcoin miners who are getting paid directly from this phenomenon and whose price has lagged the Bitcoin price since October?
Starting point is 00:40:09 That's how I would play it. Yeah, I started buying miners last week. I was having Mike Alford on the show. He came in and did basically a 30 minute pitch for Bitcoin miners. And he had come in to me about two days before. And I was a little late, but performing exceptionally well. I think that is a huge, huge opportunity going into the next market. But yeah, I think with miners, I mean, Matthew, maybe I'm wrong. Marshall, you're here as well. So great. I'm gonna ask Marshall.
Starting point is 00:40:36 You have to be pretty selective, though, coming into the halving, right? I mean, you have to fundamentally understand the differences between each of these publicly traded miners if you're going to actually allocate yeah look the the current landscape of mining is uh seemingly from the outside looking in uh they all trade as one however the market's starting to wake up there is fundamental differences in business models you're seeing um analysts like uh reggie over at j JPM doing a great job over there. You've got companies that are pivoting. So an example, Marathon doesn't own any of their own infrastructure. And so their margins are getting squeezed, but they know that.
Starting point is 00:41:17 So they're in a position for they've got heavy cash balances. They're going into the halving. They're going to be looking to pick up value M&A options, I'm sure. You've got other companies that have, frankly, bitten off a lot. You've got the US Bitcoin guys leading the Celsius charge, as well as HUD-8 picking up a fair chunk of data center allocation. Proof sees, the proof's going to be in the pudding if they can actually turn those things over from an operational standpoint.
Starting point is 00:41:42 It's a lot of work to do as your revenues get cut in half. So there's a lot of people taking shots right now. There's a lot of work to do as your revenues get cut in half. So there's a lot of people taking shots right now. There's a lot of people upgrading their fleets. Riot just announcing that they pulled down their option for some new micro BT devices to the tune of 290 million. I believe that's the largest purchase in Bitcoin mining history to date. So yeah, there's a lot of people placing bets right now. People with strong cash balances,
Starting point is 00:42:05 people that are good operators should be fine. Outside of that, I can promise you that come April, there's going to be a lot of blood in the water. I think that's guaranteed, which is why it's so important to be discerning. I mean, I think we saw a lot of people, massively, a lot of miners massively over allocate on the most expensive machines at the top of the last cycle, right? And have those delivered in the middle of the bear market and sit on the shelf and not even get turned on. So to your point, anyone who's actually has cash on the sidelines and is buying these depressed miners at 80, 90% off what they were at the top of the last cycle should perform exceptionally well. I know like the one that I looked at the most closely, just because I was speaking to him about it was Iris Energy. And pretty crazy. They basically the infrastructure that they own, the company was trading at a lower value than just the value of the infrastructure that they owned outside of even the mining capacity. Yeah. And even at the lowest, HUD 8 was trading lower than the Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
Starting point is 00:43:06 I mean, so the market's very clearly not pricing these assets correctly, but they're also pricing them as one, and they are not the same. Yeah, perfect. Perfect summary. Simon, I know you've been pretty deep in mining weeds here for a bit because of Celsius and others. Yeah, yeah. But one of the companies I invested in a while ago, and maybe Marshall will laugh this one away,
Starting point is 00:43:29 they're having another go. I don't know if anyone remembers the epic failure, 21 Inc., when they tried to do the home mining. There's another crack at that. There's been a lot of innovation happening in China around that. And I hope, I think in 2024, they're ready to bring that one to market where you could just have a little home mining device
Starting point is 00:43:51 that can repurpose some of your electricity. You can have a node in the device and then you can hook it up to a lightning network channel as well. So I'm excited to see whether we can have another crack at that one um on the eth narrative um i think so it was when when we were first discussing this a few years back mario i talked about how we i was well you know he had a decent proof of work
Starting point is 00:44:21 network there was the pre-mine, there was the constantly changing code and all of the issues that comes with ETH. But now they've switched to proof-of-stake. I think it's interesting what will happen when the ETFs start doing their ETH ETFs because the important part of that is the ones that own the ETH and stake the ETH becomes the one that owns the network. So currently most of the exchanges are the ones that own the ETH and stake the ETH becomes the one that owns the network. So currently, most of the exchanges are the ones that have the largest stake and control the future of Ethereum.
Starting point is 00:44:50 But what happens when the ETFs comes along? So BlackRock, Fidelity, the banks will own the network and essentially recreate the central bank network. And as new user cases come along, they'll be very incentivized in order to push that as the network for central bank digital currencies and various other stable coins and all the stuff that will be launched on the network and so it will it will become somewhat of another central bank with the ability for people to benefit on the side of the fringe networks of being able to stake some of it yourself as well so i think that's going to be an interesting
Starting point is 00:45:32 one to watch as the as the east etf start launching it's not a very exciting one it's not a very sexy one but i think it will come up in line with bitcoin and you'll have bitcoin the network that if you can get these home miners online and various other things and these will come up in line with Bitcoin and you'll have Bitcoin, the network, if you can get these home miners online and various other things and these lightning channels. There's still so much to do here, which is why people that think like we're like at the end of it,
Starting point is 00:45:56 once the institutions get involved, you know, there's going to be so much more to do here. There's so much more to build. There's so much more to invest in. And there's so many more cycles to go. Love it. Mario, what else? So we had El Salvador up here. I think quick story is they're in the black. You're a robot again, too. But El Salvador, much like Michael Saylor, sort of famously was dollar cost averaging and investing in Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:46:26 And once again, they are in profit. And Bukele took that as an opportunity to dunk on people, ask for retractions for people who criticized him. I think that's the story. Not much to discuss, I think, on that end. Wow, Mario. Am I robotic? You're not a robot, but it sounds like you just rubbed the mic
Starting point is 00:46:46 across your entire chest. I was dressing up. I came out of the sauna, so I was dressing up. But just quickly, Ryan, you were talking about the market, you're putting cash aside when the market dumps again.
Starting point is 00:46:59 How long do you think before we hit the highs, before we break the highs, do we just hit now? Which highs? 42K plus whatever we hit now before we hit the highs, before we break the highs that we just hit now? Which highs? 42K plus whatever we hit now before we retract. I mean, you'll get a 30%. If it's anything like previous cycles,
Starting point is 00:47:13 you'll get a 30% corrections and it'll take between two and four weeks to get to the price before the correction. That's it. Oh, that's it? Two to four weeks? Yeah, two to four weeks. That's usually what happens in the bull market. In the bull market, I mean, again, I've taken the last three bull markets. There have been between six and nine pullbacks in each one of them of 20% plus.
Starting point is 00:47:38 In the early days, the dips were much steeper. As we get later, the dips become less steep. The dips and the pumps. Well, yeah, the later, the dips become less steep. The dips and the pumps. Well, yeah, the dips and the pumps become less steep. And the recovery time for the market
Starting point is 00:47:53 is typically two to four weeks in a bull market. Scott, what's your stance on this? I've never asked you that question. Do you agree with Ryan? I know that, you know, like short-term predictions.
Starting point is 00:48:04 I mean, listen, it got gun to my head head i know what bitcoin should do here right but uh these things rarely do what they should if i'm looking at a four-hour chart for example uh bitcoin hit rsi topped at about 85 which is pretty extremely overbought and price continues to make slightly higher highs while rsi makes slightly lower highs which means we have significant bearish divergence. So like if I'm looking at this objectively outside of the news, I would say that it's due for some retracement, but Bitcoin rarely does what it should in a bearish trend. But looking at the chart naked, I would say, you know, if you were just a technical trader looking at it on shorter timeframes, this would be a time I'm not saying to short Bitcoin, but you would be looking to take some profit or looking to buy the next
Starting point is 00:48:51 rational dip. You know, people will panic if it goes back below 40, even though if it's not a significant level and dips back down to mid 38 or something, but hard to take that bet at this moment when it, when it's pushing as hard, but 42K, as I've said over and over, 40 was nothing. I think Dusty alluded to that earlier. It's just a number. But I think that kind of 38-ish level where you got above where we were trading when Luna collapsed, really erasing the contagion of 2022. And then 42K, I mean, that was the top of the entire move
Starting point is 00:49:22 in 2021 that ended January 2021 when Tesla bought Bitcoin. And if you look at a larger sort of timeframe chart, just draw a line across on 42, a horizontal line, it's sort of been a fundamental bottom of some big moves down and top of some big moves up. So it just seems like a very, very important level. Maybe it doesn't matter. Who knows? Bitcoin's going to do what Bitcoin's going to do. But it looks like there should be a temporary top.
Starting point is 00:49:46 We've gone up too much, too fast, too soon. And then we'll get a pullback. It's just, I mean, you know, it's kind of obvious. No one wants to talk about it. No one wants to believe it. But the pullback's going to come. And when it does, great opportunity to keep buying. Right.
Starting point is 00:50:00 The problem is timing it, right? Because the same sentiment was there at 38. The same thing I just said was kind of true at 38 to some degree. The idea is not to make money, but the idea is to survive. You want to make money and you want to keep the money. You want to survive the whole bull market. Now, truth is, as I said, the way that I'm playing this to do that is I don't touch my core holdings, but I'd rather take my risky fun bets
Starting point is 00:50:26 off the table now because it just feels like there's more downside than upside and give up on a little bit of profit versus lose my cash and not be able to play the next hand, right? Simon? Yeah, that's correct. Yeah, I was going
Starting point is 00:50:42 to go to the El Salvador side. Did you want to go back there or carry on? No, no, no. Bruce is here, so yes, let's do it. Okay, yeah. So obviously this is a project that's very close to my heart. I went out to meet the finance minister and Mr. Bichelli himself, President Bichelli rather, and it was around creating the ratios that could show that you could do something really interesting.
Starting point is 00:51:08 And so while everyone's looking at, you know, so the debt to GDP ratios in countries that have excessive IMF debt and excessive bonds. And at the time, the bonds were really trading at a discount because the IMF was downgrading them and saying that they weren't going to lend to them again. They needed to do a refinancing operation. So we were working on constructing a Bitcoin-backed bond, which was a product we launched at Bank to the Future in 2014, based upon geothermal Bitcoin mining in Iceland. And being able to do that with volcanoes and stuff. So those projects are going to take a lot longer to repurpose the electricity.
Starting point is 00:51:48 But the interesting thing about Bacalli is that he went through the cycle, he accumulated. And if you can start measuring the debt to GDP and then the debt to Bitcoin ratio is going to become a really interesting matrix to show the countries that took the IMF strategy versus those that accumulated hard money and are starting to get on the right side of a savings-based product rather than debt-based product. And I think that's the most interesting thing because obviously Qatar went over to meet Bokelli recently as well. We've seen a surge in a real push towards these alternative stock exchange with Abu Dhabi doing that large mining operation. And that's where all the activity is happening to try and diversify across oil mining and Bitcoin mining and stuff. So I think El Salvador is a really interesting first case.
Starting point is 00:52:47 There's so much more to build once you have Bitcoin as legal tender. You've got Bitcoin-denominated financial products, Bitcoin-denominated securities, and there's just so much more to build. Then you can have Bitcoin-denominated retirement plans as well. And if the country can prove that they can do it on the country balance sheet over time, it shows the rest of the world. And I think that's a trend that we should be looking at for the next 10 to 20 years of how much electricity do countries
Starting point is 00:53:17 divert over to Bitcoin mining, and how many of them actually accumulate a hodl position, and what happens to those hodl positions as we start to track those indexes. I've heard Qatar mentioned more in the last week with regard to Bitcoin than probably in my entire time in the crypto space combined before. You just mentioned, obviously, that they were over in El Salvador. I think there was a report and people sort of loosely tweeting that Qatar is on the other side of the bid of a lot of these traders, that they have a sovereign wealth fund that's putting, I don't remember if it was a half a billion dollars in. I saw news that a quantum resistant blockchain, QANX, I think is the token was launched uh or was uh i don't know exactly maybe it was
Starting point is 00:54:08 launched today exactly what the news was but that that was uh the primary investor was uh qatari prince of some sort uh is this going to be the next country that everybody's talking about does anybody have any insight here simon yeah probably and what what you need to be what having having worked with a fruit like since you know i've tried to do it in three different countries and the issue you get is that they start you try and get them into a bitcoin strategy and then suddenly as soon as you make an announcement you get all the all the shit coins trying to get them to do all sorts of stuff and then suddenly you go from like a decent risk management using Bitcoin strategy to
Starting point is 00:54:48 trying to launch all sorts of tokens. I think the first one that happened was Iceland with Aurora coin. And you tend to get people that just take you down that route. And the key is to just try and avoid that and maybe just create some kind of infrastructure to try and get the jobs and the tax that can come from that. But, yeah, you tend to get them starting with a Bitcoin strategy and then it just goes a little bit wacky and wild. Even we saw that with El Salvador, right? It started with a Bitcoin strategy. And then the first two licenses they approved was Bitfinex, which was going to be the securities exchange, but then did it with, you know, Bitcoin mining securities. And then Binance was the second one that was approved. And so it starts moving further down into, you know, deviating from that. But yeah, you'll hear a lot more from Qatar, I believe. tar i believe yeah it sounds like that's the case bruce any thoughts on this you obviously spend
Starting point is 00:55:46 quite a bit of time on that side of the world um what are you hearing yeah i've been excited about that part of the world for a long time and interestingly when i first got into bitcoin you know a lot of the big pools of money bitcoin just wasn't big enough you know these large sovereign funds it's really hard to conceive how much money the groups in the GCC, Gulf Cooperative Council, that's Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, UAE, they have way, way, way, way more money than most other countries. And El Salvador is actually quite small. So El Salvador has had an interesting impact and I think is a great, you know, case study for, you know, this can be done. It's kind of a bold, you know, first step startup sort of thing. But,
Starting point is 00:56:35 you know, these sovereign funds in the Gulf are, you know, astronomically larger. They don't even bother putting allocations into things often unless it's like a billion dollars. So the kind of smallest thing they're going to bother doing is something bigger than Saylor. And if they look at this as like something that you put a real allocation in, like, oh, let's put 1%, 2%, 3%, you're talking potentially, depending which fund, billions and billions and billions of dollars. And there's a lot of funds, you know, there's Qatar, there's Adia Adek Mubadala, the PIF fund in Saudi Arabia, you know, all of these funds are, you know, deca-deca or hundreds of billions of dollars. So, you know, I think that's interesting. I mean, it certainly makes sense. I think everybody is going to have to do it. I think there's going to be some FOMO.
Starting point is 00:57:25 There's probably some regional FOMO, too, as the, you know, lower money, you know, jurisdictions in that region try and pursue this, you know, so like Bahrain and, you know, part of the UAE, especially Dubai, where they just don't. Yeah, and you mentioned Oman as well. Yeah, Oman, you know, those three don't, they have extraordinary money, way, way, way, way, way more than El Salvador, but they don't have nearly as much money as Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia. And like the Qatar, you know, sovereign fund, you know, so it's so, you know, definitely has the potential to move. I would be feeling FOMO if I was one of the managers on those,
Starting point is 00:58:02 on those funds, you know,, there's only so many Bitcoin. You got to grab some. And they can obviously make much more quick and definitive decisions because of the structure, correct? I mean. Yeah. I mean, you know, compared to something like a, you know, California Teachers Pension Fund, which is also billions of dollars, you know, and especially depending where it comes from. And one of the interesting things you hear about in the Gulf, and there's
Starting point is 00:58:28 something just to keep an eye on, everybody's always talking about some prince. Some prince here, some prince there, or something. One thing to remember is that there's a zillion princes. So just because somebody's a royal doesn't necessarily mean they have power. There's thousands of them, depending which country. But on the flip side of that, at the end of the day, these organizations are quite hierarchical. So you have these boards, and they run things very conventionally, and they have investment managers for each group, the alternative investments, the PE group, the conventional stocks group, some kind of alternative things that will look at Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:59:03 And they have boards, and it's very structured, very similar to something like California Teachers' Pension. But at the very, very, very top, you know, there is rulers of these countries. There is, you know, very senior people, usually royals who are cabinet ministers and these kind of things, who run these, who ultimately run and chair these kind of things. Those people, particularly the rulers, have extraordinary power. If a ruler or somebody close to a ruler, kind of things. Those people, particularly the rulers, have extraordinary power. If a ruler or somebody close to a ruler, kind of top 10, top five people in one of these countries, really gets bullish the way that Bukele got bullish, you're talking about a whole different scenario. They have a power to override everything. They can just say, go, do it,
Starting point is 00:59:39 buy $20 billion worth of Bitcoin, and it will be done. Those managers will make it happen. So that's exciting. I think Bruce is right. I also think that Bitcoin is an interesting one because if you think about the Gulf nations, their fortunes are energy fortunes. And Bitcoin is a derivative of energy and it's a big consumer of energy and stuff like that.
Starting point is 01:00:04 So I think there must be a correlation. I don't think it's impossible for them to do it. And I think usually once one of those Gulf nations, sectors, quadrants start investing in something, it starts to, as Bruce said, everyone knows someone and everyone, it's like a big happy family, so to speak. Yeah, the energy is important.
Starting point is 01:00:28 Don't forget they're mining over there. You know, Abu Dhabi is mining with their nuclear power plant. And what they did when they, building a nuclear power plant is about the most non-trivial thing you can do in the world. It's the most dangerous, sophisticated, expensive, heavy engineering kind of thing you can do. And it takes many, many, many years and a lot of money and resources and know-how and top engineering and safety and everything. So when they do this, they build for the future. You know, they're building something that says, okay, let's plan for what the city's
Starting point is 01:00:57 going to look like in the year 2040 so that the power, you know, the nuclear power plant will still be online and be supplying that. So they build way ahead of capacity, especially with so much building going on there. So the nuclear power plant has the ability to produce way, way, way, way, way more energy. It's just basically sitting there. So they're going to keep – one of the experts who worked on it was telling me that he said they're going to mine Bitcoin even if Bitcoin was at $2. Because they're like, why not? You have just free energy sitting there for the next five, 10 years
Starting point is 01:01:26 until there's more building and then they need the capacity. So the energy angle is really interesting because it is really understood there. And a lot of people view it like, oh, okay, we mine oil out of the ground. Let's mine some Bitcoins with using the oil. Yeah, I think that's a great explanation of what's going on there guys we have a uh anything
Starting point is 01:01:47 left on the docket mario no i think it's it man covered it for today and we went uh deeper into mining than expected but that was great we got a lot of insight yeah yeah we're gonna go through that report maybe tomorrow's agenda we can go through the report that matthew was talking about yeah yeah i think that would be great we're gonna dm him and hope that uh he'll grace us with yeah yeah you know i did say though i did say to you in advance i was like every time i have matthew on my show or here it's like uh two hours worth of alpha in two minutes that rattles off more data than any human being when is ryan selkis publishing his 2024 trends report?
Starting point is 01:02:26 Because that's a big thing. Like, I look forward to that every year. We try, you know, didn't we try that all last year? Like, we tried it. Well, no, it was his mid-year one that we tried to get him on to discuss. But, yeah, I saw him tweet something to the effect yesterday of, I hope AI can do this next year because I'm never writing this thing again. Like, 180 pages of predictions for the next year that he'm never writing this thing again. Like 180 pages
Starting point is 01:02:46 of predictions for the next year that he does every year. It's absolutely astounding. But yeah, when that drops, I think it's got to be in the next two weeks. We got to have him on and do maybe a solo show and just discuss it. I think that would be great. Cool. All right, guys. We'll see you tomorrow.
Starting point is 01:03:02 Thank you.

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