The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Ready To Explode After Halving? | Crypto Town Hall

Episode Date: April 23, 2024

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Okay, Scott is, he can't join, so let me get him, let me get him down and get him back up. Okay, I guess in the meantime, let's kick it off. I mean, as I was speaking about earlier on my show, I guess the halving is now behind us. The leverage is flushed out. We've had a total market reset, so to speak, if you want to look at it from a leverage point of view.

If you want to look at it from the RSI point of view it looks like the rsis have cooled down um you know on the weekly uh the stochastic is probably very close to what is traditionally known as the the undersold level which is below 20 um and i guess probably what we need to talk about is you know whether people think it's time for the next leg up or whether uh this is just you know sideways sideways movement for now and potentially there is uh another leg down so i guess that's probably what we're going to be speaking about most of the time today uh i see mario's joined which is quite a good surprise i see scott's trying to join but i think while we are waiting for them uh peter maybe you can elaborate uh because i think you're more the charts man.

Yeah, I mean, this is just kind of a normal correction to me. I think that's my highest probability read. We're just kind of drifting in the sideways. Of course, I've really never felt like the move up above 70 represented kind of quote unquote a new high i just still see this market kind of stalled at where we were in april 21 and november 21 yeah a few thousand dollars higher but you know that's not a big big significance to me so we're back challenging the old highs. And so the question is, what's next? And of course, we've seen the halving. And in past cycles, the halving has been almost exactly the halfway point between the low of the bull market cycle and the eventual high of the bull market cycle. So we've seen the halving, which if we go by past script says that we'll see a final high in this bull market cycle somewhere in August, September of 2025. And we go up from here.

But, you know, on one hand, I'm bullish. I see nothing on the charts that would convince me either in a daily chart or weekly chart that there's big pause for concern. The only concerns I have is that we really have not made a new high as far as I see the market relative to the 2021 highs. And so we're right where we were three years ago. And despite the fact we're right where we were three years ago, the conventional wisdom is this market keeps going. Whenever there's a strong conventional wisdom and everybody's thinking the same way, for me, that's always a reason to step back, reappraise, and see if I can create a narrative which says that, well, maybe there's some bad men lurking in the shadows. And for me, I can create a narrative that says Bitcoin is not going to go straight up from here, but in fact, going to have a much longer corrective phase, possibly even all the way back into the mid 40s. But, you know, for now, as long as the moving averages remain up, I remain long.

But nevertheless, I created kind of a 25% probability that the markets have either topped or have close to top for this entire bull market cycle. And in fact, we will have for the first time a case where the halving is close to the end of the move and not halfway into the end of the move. So that's my read from here. Go ahead. Mario, I just want to make sure we can hear each other because it keeps kicking co-hosts down. Yes. Okay. Go ahead. okay go ahead did you but so peter just said the harbing is closer to the end of the of the cycle

rather than the middle of the cycle so peter you're saying that the cycle will be therefore shorter than previous cycles i cannot hear peter now can you hear him scott no he's muted peter are you there oh yeah scott are you there yeah you're over there peter yeah go ahead i mean in past cycles the having has been almost exactly if you go by a weekly or daily bar within a few bars daily bars of each other uh the halfway between the start of the bull market and the end of the bull market i mean right dot in the. And that's been true in every bull market cycle in 2010 to 11, bull cycle 11 to 13, 15 to 17, 18 to 21, right in the middle. And so, you know, whenever people just assume things are always going to be the same and the cycle is going to repeat. And then oftentimes the cycle does repeat. And that is my highest probability. In fact, for this current bull market cycle, it's how I'm positioned is how I'm invested, that we are only halfway to the end of this bull market cycle that we're in that

started back in late 2023. But I always get concerned when everybody's singing from the same page and the same verse of the hymnal. And that seems to be the case now. Peter, but why are you concerned? And I know everyone likes to say, you know, the kind of cliches. When everyone believes something is probably wrong, that's cliche number one. Cliche number two is this time it's different, but it never is. I just think both of them are just dangerous generalizations. So in this case, Peter, when

you say, I'm a bit concerned because everyone's expecting this to be in the early or mid stages of the bull cycle, but why would you be concerned? Doesn't that mean that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy? So if everyone thinks we're in the early and theages of the bull cycle. But why would you be concerned? Doesn't that mean that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy? So if everyone thinks we're in the early and the middle of the bull cycle, everyone will act accordingly, and it ends up materializing. This is how history repeats itself, is people kind of look at history and expect it to repeat itself. And because of these expectations, it repeats itself.

Ian, I'm invested know i'm invested i'm invested against that that scenario that's where my money is i'm i'm long bitcoin seven my i'm placing a 75 probability that in fact it does repeat history will repeat itself all i am saying is i'm at that stage where i'm willing to place 25% odds that it's going to be very different. So my question is, can I find the internal statistics, mathematics within the market that might even allow for a 25% probability that, in fact, it is going to be different this time around? I'm a Bayesian probability guy. I want to look at, you know, where can I be wrong? What's the scenario by which I'm wrong?

What's the narrative by which I'm wrong? And I actually have that narrative now. I can find the internal math within the market that suggests that maybe this time is different. Let me explain what that is. When you look at the 2010 to 2011 bull market, and you measure it from the very low price of that bull cycle to the high price of that bull cycle, we saw a gain during that bull market, which was about a 3200x move. Now, when we look at the 2011 to 2013 bull market from low to high, we had a gain of approximately 570x. It was a 570x move. Now,

so in other words, that move relative to a power ratio was at about 20% of the magnitude of the previous bull market cycle. Now we come into the 2015 to 2017 bull market cycle. And from low to high, we had a move which represented approximately a 120x advance. Again, approximately 20% of the magnitude on a power ratio of the 2011 to 2013 bull market. Now, 2018 to 2021, from low to high, we had an advance, which represented approximately a 22, 23x move. Again, the exact same power ratio, a move which represented approximately 20% of the magnitude of the previous bull cycle. So if I go by there and say, okay, history is going to repeat itself again. All of a sudden, I have a narrative,

which says that this bull market has already seen a move, which is consistent with the magnitude of previous power ratio moves. And we could see a high then, when we look at the low of this bull market cycle back in late 2022, which could top out in the area of $75,000 to $85,000. And so, yes, history does repeat itself. History does become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But suddenly, I can start building the building blocks, which says, okay, I'm going to leave myself open to consider another narrative. And so that's simply what I'm saying. So all of a sudden... of the previous bull cycle. Would you say that if history does repeat itself based on those exact numbers, would we hit a peak of 75% to 80%? Is that what you said? Would we get a...

No, I'm saying if we take that same... He just chopped out. Fuck. Can you hear him scott yeah he's here just yeah peter just again i want to ask you the question so when you talked about the 20 percent of the previous so so the upsides is each cycle is like 20 of the previous cycle if you go by that rule what would be the peak in this cycle if we go by that same rule because it seems to have repeated itself for the last

three cycles? Approximately a 5x move. 5x move from the low that we made in November 2022. So what would that be? What would that be? 5x of that? 75 to 80 grand.

Yeah, 75 to 85. And we've been there. That's a fair point. Okay. I want to go to Ryan because I know Ryan, you've been in Paris and Dubai and doing some crazy shit. Congratulations on Gummy. I've been launching meme coins, man.

Lighting the world on fire. I mean, that was like, that was like the craziest thing I've ever done in my life. Bar none, that was the craziest thing I've ever done in my life. Man, I think I have balls, but I would not dare launch a meme coin and put my name behind it. Just way too scary for me.

Yet you did it and succeeded doing so. You say that you wouldn't do it. We assessed the risks and we kind of broke down the risks quite well. So what we said is, look, I think the biggest risk of any coin, whether it's a meme or a project, is if the project fails, right?

And specifically if the project fails, then a lot of questions get asked to the people who raised cash. And they say, look, you raised, like you raised $5 million. What did you spend it on? So the first rule that we made was we said we're not going to take cash from anyone and we're actually going to fund the whole thing ourselves. So, I mean, what people don't know is that meme coins actually require quite a bit of funding. Like to distribute meme coins to,

we had to distribute to over 100,000 holders in an airdrop that costs money to create what's called the liquidity pool, which is effectively how the exchanges trade. Because remember, the exchanges have to have both sides of the trade. They need to have the coin and they need to have the other side,

which is the USD or the Solana or whatever it is that you're trading against. And someone has to actually front that money, put that money up. So it ended up costing us a couple of hundred grand, which we had to put up in liquidity across the various platforms. And so what we said is, look, rule one is no one's ever going to pay for this airdrop, this meme coin. Rule two is that we're going to no one at banter

is going to be no no banter no influencer no nothing is going to be given no tokens are going to be given to anyone at banter no one's going to earn no influences i mean you know testament is that you guys are my partners and i mean you could probably attest to the fact that you've never been offered any allocations and in fact if you on chain, no one got any type of influencer allocations or marketing allocations or any kind of allocation on Gummy. Not even me. In fact, the only Gummy that I have, I've got 500 tokens because I was farming on Banter Bubbles. I was using the Banter Bubbles app and that gave me 500 tokens. And that's to be honest, that's the net holding that i have in in gummy at the moment so that's the first thing the second thing is so we said look no raising money

so no one must ever pay for this uh no one at banta must ever get coins so they can never be like oh you got coins early and stuff like that and then the truth is when i launched a coin i actually went down a rabbit hole and i you know for me to be able to launch a meme coin, I had to go down this rabbit hole of how meme coins are actually launched. And what I realized is actually that even though meme coins are launched through a process called a fair launch, actually, the game is completely, completely, completely unfair. And it's actually completely rigged. And it's actually completely rigged against the retail investor. So I always thought that meme coins were a casino, except that the casino was like much more fair than being in a normal casino. What I learned when I went down the rabbit hole trying to launch the coin was actually learned that this whole game is rigged and i'll explain to you how the game is rigged um so what people do is they do a fair launch and what that means is they take a

hundred percent of the tokens and they pair it with a very small amount of solana so let's say ten thousand dollars worth of solana with a hundred million tokens just or a billion tokens and so the price of each token, if you can buy it directly from the liquidity pool, is 100 Solana or let's say $10,000 worth of Sol, divided by a billion coins.

And so what generally happens as soon as the coin launches, insiders, founders, normal snipers, insiders and founders, what they do is they deploy sniping bots and they snipe up a large part of the supply, sometimes even up to 80% or 90% of the supply. And they distribute it amongst like 100 wallets or 1,000 wallets.

So it just looks like it's spread everywhere. And then, it's not always insiders and founders. There's actually good businesses that are actually bots on Solana, which basically on every single block on Solana, they snipe all the new launches. They just snipe the tokens. They buy them first. And some of them sell them within 10 seconds. Some of them sell them within 10 minutes. Some of them sell them when the project matures.

And so, what I realized was that 80% of the big projects out there are actually sniped and sniped by insiders. And so then I had to go down a rabbit hole of actually trying to protect the community, our community or our token, well, not our token, but the token that we created from being sniped. And so that took me a couple of weeks to work out. And eventually what we realized was that the best way to beat the snipers was to snipe the token ourselves and then to give it back to the community.

So to be transparent about it and say, Hey, we, we, we employed a sniping technology. We snipe the token ourselves and we're taking those tokens and we're going to give them back to the community instead of the tokens landing up in the hands of bad, you know, let's, let's call it call it you know unscrupulous operators or whatever else yeah i was just gonna say how do you out snipe the snipers so you have i'll tell you quite simply you have perfect information as the launcher of the contract you have perfect information about when your block is going to be launched you know exactly yeah you have the information about when your block is going to be launched. You know exactly.

Yeah. We have the contract address. You have the timing of the listing and the liquidity pool. It's going to be added. So what you do, what you do is you basically snipe in the same block, which is what everyone does. It's everyone.

Everyone does it. It's just most of them are anonymous devs and they're not transparent about it. And then later on they use those funds to incentivize influences and whatever else. That was a lesson that I learned. And I took a lot of consulting and I spoke to some of the biggest launchers in the space. I'm not going to mention names because I just think that in this game, they probably don't want to be known.

And ultimately, what we did was we decided that the best way to beat the snipers was to actually snipe ahead of them and just hand the token straight back to the community and kind of say, look, we didn't want the tokens to end up in the wrong hands. And so, look, it was an amazing learning curve. The token is trading at $175 million fully directed market cap. It was $250 million yesterday. Now it's a community token. I mean, we don't have any tokens. As I said, I've got 500 tokens that I managed to claim from the claim portal. And now it's really up to the community to...

What's your business strategy? So two questions, but ask the tough questions where I'm not sure you can answer. And we haven't talked about this privately beyond like, hey, congratulations and fuck you for always being ahead of me. It's pretty much our whole discussion. The question I have for you is twofold. The first is what were the total costs for obviously the liquidity pool adding liquidity to the liquidity pool the distribution the airdrops very marketing costs and then the second very hard to say okay first question very hard to say and i'll tell you why number one so i put up over a hundred thousand

dollars in terms of liquidity number two i've paid some dev costs along the way and some of those dev costs were absolutely wasted. So it's not like I knew what I was doing and I devved with a good roadmap. We devved some stuff and then it fell away and stuff like that. Some of the devs, we agreed to just give them a very tiny allocation of the tokens with like 0.1% of the token supply for helping us

dev what we needed to dev. We didn't realize that it's going to explode to $200 million market cap. So, I mean, it's going to explode to 200 million dollar market cap so I mean it's very hard to say but I reckon if you want to do a proper job and you want to add the

liquidity yourself probably around 200,000 dollars and that's including liquidity including liquidity just for anyone anyone listening

number one of course I don't own any gummy no one got it privately and second I didn't buy any off the market because we don't

usually do that. We usually just come in and do private deals or OTC deals. That's our general rule. So that's number one. Number two is me and Ryan haven't really spoken about this much except, you know, congratulations, kiss, kiss, hug, hug, and finger.

The second question, Ryan, is what's the business model? You're a very smart business person, and we've known each other for a while. What's the business strategy behind this? So let me maybe just walk you through how Gummy started. And then I think once you understand that, I mean, I'll explain to you what happened. And Ryan, just one last thing. For the audience, Ryan launched a meme token called Gummy.

I've known about it for a while and watched the launch the whole process and I was sitting at just under $200 million FTV, which is pretty damn fucking good. So we're just kind of digging into this and we'll go back to the market discussions with our panel. But I'm just very curious on how Rand did it. I'll give you a quick background as to how Gummy was launched. It was a meme coin season. I wasn't a big

believer in meme coins in the beginning. I had an about turn when I realized that meme coins were actually a prediction market for culture and it's a it's probably the most accurate prediction market for culture and we had we've had many discussions about this i then you know went on a saturday i took i took a weed gummy i'll be honest for full transparency and i went to jump into a jumping trampoline park with my kids and just after we were jumping in the trampoline park, on the management group, on the banter management group, someone posted a video of how a guy went step by step

and created a meme coin. And the meme coin was called Hami, H-A-M-I. And the guy does a really good job of explaining how he launched a meme coin. So I was on the effects of the game. I was a bit baked. And I said, guys, wouldn't this be a great idea if we taught our community how to make a meme coin. So I was on the effects of the gummy, so I was a bit baked. And I said, guys, wouldn't this be a great idea if we taught our community how to make a meme coin?

And of course, the banter management group was split. Some of them said, look, it's controversial. People will create meme coins. Meme coins are bad for you. My attitude was, and maybe again, it was the effect of the gummy. It was like, look, learning to make an NFT in this day and age or a collection of NFTs is a skill. It's like learning to make websites in the days when websites weren't mainstream. And I think that meme coins are actually a better community creator than an NFT because an NFT is very exclusive.

So either you can buy it early or fuck you. Either you can have enough money to buy a punk or fuck you. But meme coins aren't like that they're an inclusive community where it says look you know like you want to be part of the community um uh you can just buy it for like one cent or whatever whatever the price you can buy a fraction of a token so to me i felt that just like i felt it was important to teach people how to make nfts i felt that meme coins were actually more important then we started thinking about a name and people said why don't you make it wise changing money, and why don't you make it this?

And then someone in a group said, look, since you came up with the idea and you're clearly on a gummy, why don't you just call it gummy? And we all loved gummy because gummy has got good connotations. It makes you happy. You laugh a lot. You laugh uncontrollably. You socialize. You eat.

You enjoy food much more than you're supposed to. Just a cool thing. All right, that's how we decided to launch Gummy. We went through, you know, then we were going to raise money, and then we decided not to raise money because we said, look, you never ever want to be associated with taking money because if you take money and your project fails, you can be a scammer. If you give your project away, then if you give it away,

then how can you be a scammer if you just gave away tokens and you kept none for yourself and it's completely auditable on chain, but you don't have a single token. But then we needed to find a way to distribute it. So initially I went on to Twitter and I said, hey, if you want a free airdrop of gummy, just put your Twitter address on the Twitter. But then I thought, hold on a second. How am I going to capture all these tweet addresses? So then what we said is, okay, you know what we'll do? We'll create some very basic things that you need to do so for example just use our banter bubbles app which is a free app and then just accrue points for using it so the longer you spend on the app the more points

you get and then we'll take the total number of points divided by the amount we're going to airdrop and then we're going to we'll just drop the total number we'll to airdrop. And then we'll just drop the total number. We'll just airdrop to the users of Banter Bubbles. And then we thought, hold on, what else can we do? So we said, look, if you can complete one of our modules of crypto school, we'll airdrop you some gummy. If you sign up to any of the, if you support any of the service providers that sponsor our shows, we'll just airdrop you free gummy. So we did that.

Like we said, like if you sign up to one of the exchanges, you get free gummy. In turn, they will list gummy for us. So we're one of the first meme coins to get a sex listing immediately in parallel to a dex listing. So we did a whole lot of these things where we needed to find ways to get addresses from people in our community. Yeah.

Sorry, just guys, one sec. Someone just walked in our community. Yeah. Sorry, just guys, one sec. Someone just walked in quite urgently, yeah? I'm on Twitter spaces. Sorry, guys. And just a heads up for people listening, the Twitter spaces is glitching, so a lot of people are not able to log in and stuff. It's crashed earlier today.

If anyone's been bringing it down, detect it. So we are having a lot of issues with this basically. Okay, so we just said, look, we just needed to find a way. And we just said, look, anyone who uses our app, which is a free app, anyone who signs up to one of our service providers, we'll just airdrop Gummy to you. So we landed up airdropping 10% of the supply originally. And that was one of the advices we got.

We got a piece of advice that said, look, don't drop all the airdrop at once. If you do, there'll be selling pressure on the token. Just drop it in multiple batches.