The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Reclaims $69K As Global Instability Ramps Up - Worst Yet To Come?

Episode Date: April 6, 2026

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Finance Bitcoin uncertainty is rising fast as global instability continues to build across markets. A critical week of economic data—including CPI, Fed minutes, and GDP—could determine the next major move, while oil prices surge, consumer stress increases, and warnings from major institutions point to deeper cracks in the financial system. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and shifts in global capital flows are adding even more pressure. Despite this, institutions are quietly accumulating Bitcoin as retail investors sell, signaling a potential shift beneath the surface. The question now is whether this growing uncertainty leads to further downside—or sets the stage for a much larger move ahead. 🎙 Guests Dave Weisberger – Former CEO of CoinRoutes https://x.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish – CIO & Macro Strategist https://x.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone – Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg https://x.com/mikemcglone11 🚀 Connect & Learn Join The Wolf Pack Community Channel (Free Telegram) – Daily crypto market updates + direct chat with Scott: https://t.me/+34ihhgJnZYRlOWU8 Join The Wolf Pack News Channel (Free Telegram) - Daily crypto news & technical analysis with Scott: https://t.me/+Jzsrl5Xp9NJmMDk0 Free Wolf Den Newsletter – Crypto news & market analysis every weekday: https://thewolfden.substack.com/ 📊 Featured Trading Tools OKX – Trade like a pro with 1:1 backed assets and industry-leading speed. Start your journey: https://app.okx.com/join/THEWOAS Arch Public – Hedge-fund-level algorithmic trading tools: https://archpublic.com/ Trading Alpha – Pro-grade crypto indicators (Code: 10OFF): https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker 📲 Follow Scott Melker Twitter/X: https://x.com/scottmelker Website: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3FASB2c 📩Promote your brand with The Wolf of All Streets. For sponsorship & partnership opportunities, contact [e-mail] ⚠️ Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Tellus Online Security. Oh, tax season is the worst. You mean hack season? Sorry, what? Yeah, cybercriminals love tax forms. But I've got Tellus Online Security. It helps protect against identity theft and financial fraud so I can stress less during tax season or any season.

Plan started just $12 a month. Learn more at tellus.com slash online security. No one can prevent all cybercrime or identity theft. Conditions apply. Bitcoin had a nice move over the weekend, but we know that we need to be skeptical of weekend pumps. But it did recapture 70,000 before dropping back down into the 69,000s. All of this coming, of course, while there are threats of further attacks in Iran, and global instability is arguably at an all-time high.

We're going to unpack all of this and what it means for market with Mike, Dave, and James. Right now, on Macro Monday. Let's go. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the simulation. uh because i saw what was happening this weekend i mean trump was tweeting praise to allah while threatening to annihilate an entire country and i really thought wow we must be in a simulation back if we're on mike david james right now we can discuss it all mike start with the morning meeting i mean that tweet was uh well wait before you before you even start with that you guys did see that there was a polymarket betting uh spot that what's that i think i think

that was fake news. I saw a tweet from the polymarket will Trump say praise through our Lord. I was going to start losing faith in humanity completely. Yeah, I think we're good there at least. Okay. Thank you. Not confirmed, but I think so. Mike, more than we can get.

Fake, not fake, not fake confirmed, but whatever. That's the world we live in, literally. It came to me in all of my, like, friend's facts. Like, can you believe this? They're just doing it, like, right out. in, you know, in the open, nobody's even hiding it. And I tried to find it on Polly Market. I couldn't.

Yeah. The best fake April Fool's joke that I saw that got me for about a nanosecond because I was so, you know, happy about it, was that Jerry Jones had stepped down from the Cowboys as GM. Important stuff. There was one that was going around with a big map of Hormuz closures and when oil would run out around the world. It said Asia April 1st, and it was retweeted and said,

shared by mainstream media everywhere. So, yeah, that's the got. But my cow is the Bloomberg viewing all this. Well, first time I've brought up with one fact, and I'll dig into the meeting, and that is based on what we were just saying, is we're seeing a very volatile world, we've a very mercurial president. And my base case hasn't happened yet.

I just look at 180-day volatility on crude oil and gold. They're both up about 45% and 180-day volatility this year, and the S&B 500 is down 3%. That, to me, is just not going to happen. It's going to change by the end of the year at some point. But to the morning meeting, starting with our economist Troy Dury was filling in today for Anna Wong. He thinks the Fed's minutes coming out will be confirmed the hawkish tilt. The data was late in this unemployment number and the payrolls number was strong.

Headline CPI is likely to be the largest since 2022 this week, 3.3% from 2.4%. obviously higher gasoline. Fed to see the flip side, though, the commodity spike. And one thing is is PCE still expects that to be the key thing that's still strong. The key thing that PC includes is financial services, which means the stock market. Ira Jersey dug in. He gave us some good quotes. The payroll report, he said the headline was good, but the unemployment, but was mostly from lower income sectors. Aggregate income actually fell. Hours worked was dropped. He pointed out The G3 main central banks are all focused on tightening with the exception of the Fed, the ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. That's his quite was this is probably not a good sign.

We're getting growth scare and a global slowdown from that. And Gieson rallying the short end yields. And two years is what he expects. Two years he thinks are fully valued. So he thinks the two years likely to drop in yield. Long end, he's still not a fan of. I am, but he isn't. And he thinks the key thing about the 30 years point out this 5% yield is seeing liability investor buying.

You think that's still very good yield ceiling for the long end. Chris Kane, our equity strategies pointed out the estimate 500 is below its 200-day moving average. It's typically a reason to buy it. 6-645 is that level. It spent almost 10 days, almost 11 days he pointed out, and point out the S&P 500 is typically good to buy after you get big spikes like we did last week. And that's really it from the morning meeting. Except for me, I pointed out my key theme earlier that this is just, we've never had gold volatility and crude oil volatility rallied this velocity with stock market volatility staying so low. So my base case is still risk assets will be going down by the end of the year.

And crude oil, I can dig into it later, but let's move on to the meeting. Yeah, I mean, I happen to have had this pulled up before because I was just checking. I mean, Bitcoin volatility is falling off a cliff still in the midst of all of this, which I find relatively wild. right i mean we get you know you look at the chart dave you joked about this last week i think when we are at crypto town hall and if you're zoomed in it looks like there's actually volatility oh my gosh we went from 67 we're at 695 and then you look it's actually like you went from 68 5 to like 68 9 right there's just i mean there's nothing happening here for bitcoin well yeah i mean bitcoin is as i said in the video i did this weekend and the article that i posted it stuck between uh the immovable

object and the irresistible force the immovable object in this point in this particular case is fear of quantum keeping graybeards out of the market. By the way, that's going to evaporate. And the irsustible force is the demand of the people who actually believe in it and the silent or quiet accumulation while people in the crypto world continue to sell. And frankly, that's also evaporating. We see that that seller's exhaustion. Now, what's important about this is this is going on and the war, Crude oil, yeah. I mean, look, Bitcoin moves with risk assets because the people who have to delever, delever, but you can only de lever for so long. And what Mike is missing and what Bloomberg is

missing is the fact that the reason stock market volatility is so low is because you can only delever so many times. All the people who are going to delever, delevered. And so you have a situation now where the entire speculative universe is de-risked. They're not going to change stance because Trump make sweet. You know, yes, some people might panic sell if we get a hyper-escalation of the war and the straits close, but nobody believes it's going to happen. And the fundamental most important point about that, about all of this stuff, is something that people always forget. And it's crazy how people forget this because it's so important, which is news doesn't make a damn bit of difference unless it changes people's expectations, right? Just let that sink in for a second. So if the

entire world thinks Trump is a lunatic. And the entire world thinks that the U.S., regardless of that lunacy, the U.S. and Iran are eventually going to figure out some way to de-escalate the conflict. Then no matter what he says, it doesn't frigging matter unless a gun start coming out and bomb start dropping. And people forget this every time. And they forget it in every single context. So this notion that it's priced in. There's a reason, Mike, James and I all agree with by the rumor sell the news. It's all about what do people expect and did the expectations change because that's what moves markets. When it comes to Bitcoin, I want to make this point on quantum really quickly. People say that Bitcoin will rally like hell when Bitcoin solves quantum. Bullshit.

Bitcoin will rally like hell when people believe that they're going to solve quantum. That's when you'll see a rally because that's what matters. The same thing is true on the the effect of quantum on the downside. If people believe Bitcoin is going to be cracked and is going to fall apart, that's when Bitcoin will see a massive fall. That's the reason that if a Satoshi coin moves, people will sell. Look, I've run the numbers in, there are lots of, we have lots of comparisons. That's the great news here.

There are companies that are huge companies that had well more than 30% of their supply offline because they were locked up. That lockups ended. We know this. And we know when those people actually start selling that the average over years, I mean, we're talking years of similar magnitude to Satoshi's coins, actually in percentage terms, larger. It's an average of 3% is when that's what the fall is.

And within six months, it's totally recovered and actually higher. Now, even if you take Bitcoin's volatility at three times and you take the size and this and whatever by another three, you end up with 27%, right? You know, is this just the math? So, you know, but we've already seen that. Bitcoin has seen, you know, 50% drop off the highs. Now, was it all from quantum? Of course not.

It was from de-leveraging. Maybe half of that was from quantum. Would it happen again briefly? Sure. But you need to be intensively. How to sell off as a result of quantum? I think that a lot of people stopped, didn't want to buy. And when their sellers and buyers are scared out of the market, what happens?

Things drop, right? You know, it's when Nick, if you do pick a point in the chart, when Nick Carter first started yelling. Now, he's not Chicken Little. He actually is making a lot of sense of what he said. He's doing the community of service, whether people believe it or not. But you pick a point in the chart. The day that he started selling was the next leg down from the low 90s down to 60.

So yeah, you know, is that the only causative factor? Come on, you know, we're adults here. There is no single causative factor in markets. So sometimes there is. I mean, a war might do it or, you know, Trump's Liberation Day nonsense last year did it. But rarely do you see a single causative factor, but it certainly was a major factor in the next the next slide because it's the kind of narrative that, look, Scott, how many people have told you they're afraid of afraid of buying Bitcoin because of quantum?

A lot, but not until Bitcoin was well into the 70s. That's why I, you know, I don't know how much. They told you, who knows when they actually sold. Yeah. Look, that's only my point. Anyway, the point here is everything Mike is saying about volatility, if you, you can look at the stock market the same way. The stock market, if you're invested in the stock market and you have very,

the wealth effect. You're not selling unless you have to. The war doesn't change that. But you sell is if you're for, is you need to raise cash for the next how many every years, months, whatever that you're comfortable with. And, you know, so people, where else are they going to put their money? I mean, the government has engineered. It's that there's no good yield. You can't live. Most people can't live on 4%. Right. They just can't. And so, you know, people are stretching for yield. That's why STRC is so popular. That's why high yield gets very popular at the end of every cycle. Now, does that mean, is that set us up for a crash? Potentially, because when people say, and they're reaching for yield, and that's why they're buying stocks and they start falling,

well, then it creates a vicious cycle. And Mike is sitting here scratching his head, I would say running his hand through his hair, but doesn't have any of that left anymore. But, you know, because he's saying, well, people haven't gotten upset yet or worried yet. And by the way, that's a very real concern. I actually share it, you know, because that's the kind of tipping point. If things go south, it could happen. I just don't think they're going to go south. I mean, but that's it. If I were dependent upon the stock market to live, I would be lighter now. James, what about you? I mean, well, yeah, I agree with everything you said about Bitcoin. And of course, yeah, that's why you have these perverse market moves when, you know, you see that you've got economic data is in a downturn, right?

but people were worried about Fed raising rates, so the market rallies in the face of it. It's all expectations. All of it is expectations. And so much of that is baked into the market. So they say that the market's efficient. It's not really, but it's forward-looking for sure. And so you just have to take every single day into account.

And what's interesting today is that Trump put a new ultimatum, out for Tuesday and the futures are rallying here you know bitcoin's rallying and it's kind of been doing its own thing a little bit gold is off a little bit you know the the yields are up it's kind of like i think the market is it's beginning to shrug off um trump's you know bombastic tweets about this and i don't know if that continues depends on you know the reaction from the middle east and from iran But it's just interesting that the market is not really reacting the way it would have two weeks ago to that tweet, in my opinion. It's what's at. Yeah.

And I mean, I had to check if it was real and I know everybody else did because we saw it on Twitter first and, you know, I went over to treat social, assuming that we were getting an Easter prank or some late April Fool's Day. But, I mean, he is who he is. That just blew my mind. The market is just numb at this point to it. It's kind of crazy. Yeah, well, it's actually, it's like, it's like everybody's heads are spinning with all this. And they're like, well, the best thing to do is just not much, you know, just not much. Maybe have some cash and sit back, but not, don't do too much because who knows what's going to happen next?

You just don't know. You know, he's been, he's been likened to a loose cannon for his entire career. And that's, that's, that's his MO. That's how he, that's how he negotiates is the perception being an absolute loose. can't you just can't you don't know what he's going to do and if it's threat it's if it's a threat it's probably not idle that's why he had you know that was the the whole thing when he had this reality show he's like you're fired you know it's like and then you fire people and is like you know it's that that's what that's the reality show that we're living in right now and so the market is

I agree it's it's becoming numb to it meaning that people's people like hold on just don't do anything let's see what actually but give me some hard gentlemen actually happen to anything. I mean, Mike, I assume you're looking at this as the eye of the hurricane. Oh, yeah. This is a combination of 9-11, 2008, 2020, 1990. I remember that one really well, and Crudeau spiked from 16 to 40 and went right back down to 10 within a few years. I want to point out some key facts is the number one measure of heat, electricity, and fertilize in this country, natural gas, U.S. natural gas,

in a year-over-year basis, since it's seasonal, it's only way to measure it, is down, 25%. That's how if you want to, in the U.S., when you talk about fertilizer, it's enhanced hydrolyst ammonia for corn, that's straight from there. That was precedent in 2022 and 23. I remember getting a lot of pushback when I was calling for Crudell that dropped the 40 then. Okay, low as 55, but people call it to be 150. I said, natural gas told you you were wrong. It's telling you right now what's going to happen. We're going to, we're in the pump that's going to do it.

And it's just a matter of time because it's what happens with now we're in the stage of natural gas. doesn't matter so much on the rest of the world. But when Crudel breaks, in rallies like this, it breaks things. And this is what's happening and what will happen. So I point out what's go to where the puck is going. So I just have to point out WTI Crudel in December. The December month, the December future is $72 a barrel. The high was 81, the low is 55 this year so far.

I was right around 55. 55 is the average cost of production. You all know rules and commodities. You always go to that average cut short production, questions, where and when. I think by midterms, it's going to be 50 or lower. Number one was Trump want. One number two, I think it's either case, certainly if the straight opens, it'll go there.

But if the straight stays closed, it means that global tilt towards a pretty significant depression. It's kicking in. And I just looked through all my other commodities. What were the indications? The rally we had in gold and silver this year, the velocity of that rally was the highest in my career. I only started in the business in 88,

exactly the highest since 1980. I don't think I'll ever be able to say that gold was reached the lowest ever versus the lowest in like 50 years versus a basket of treasuries, the highest versus the commodity index and silver reach the highest versus copper and the highest versus crude. That stuff lasts for years. These peaks are lasting for years. The key thing I want to point is the indications are all there. We saw cryptos have their collapse last year.

I think it's just a consolidating bear market and there's still too much hopium in this space like good luck. But they were indicating what's happening now and now the key theme is that stock market has to stay up. But my view from commodities is this stuff, always it's it's only worse it's worst enemy 2008 this was a trading year that worked very well for me but the bloomer commodity next and by july was up 7 percent or so i'm sorry 30 percent cp i was running 5.6 percent and the price of crude oil reached 147 dollars a barrel by then the year everything

had collapsed why was that obviously we had different reasons but the stock market now is twice as expensive as it won was then and we have a massive surplus of crude oil in this country versus a deficit back then. This is a rollover. I think that's going to kick in. And the whole world, this has to look over that U.S. stock market. It has to stay up. And I think that's the tilt that's going to go down. This is the big one. This is the macro. I might keep saying, you know, the levels I've been putting on it. They keep going below those levels. I'm using 75 Bitcoin now. It's just a number. Prove me wrong. And the market hasn't done it. And I'm afraid when it does prove me right that this is going to be the year for the T-Bond. And that's, I think, you know, that T-LT is maybe unshaping.

changed up 1% the year has zero volatility and Bitcoin's down 20% in year. By end of the year, crude oil is probably going to be down. I'll make the call. Natural gas is already down and bond yields will be much lower. Well, Mike, you'll be happy to know that when I did just a quick AI scrape of the headline news today for crypto, we got Bitcoin meltdown to 10,000, remains likely unless price replayed 75,000. The coin dust has got you now, man. Well, it's the key thing that I do love that symbol you just made, Dave, is people are

seem to getting angrier and angrier when I first made that call back in Q1 last year, 1H last year. And I have to do it. You have to do that when you see what's happening in the space. And that is, it's important to point out what's the hardest thing to do in human nature is no when to sell. And buying is the hardest time, too. And you don't want to typically to buy and expect a game.

without pain, I'm like, good luck. And all the buyers above 100 are expecting the gain without paying. The time to buy Bitcoin one's getting beat up. Now, you might say that. But the time to buy gold was when it was hovering below 2000 and 21, 22 and 23. It's not to buy it above 5,000. That's just the way markets work. The key theme, though, remember, is there's maybe 100 cryptocurrencies that matter,

but there's an unlimited supply of other cryptocurrencies. I look at some other things that have supplied demand elasticity. To me, this is all getting started. Like I say, prove me wrong. The indications are there, and the bottom line is we have stock market volatility, 80-day volatility, 180-day volatility, still trickling down in the year, yet gold and crude oil up 45%. That's just never happened. Okay. Maybe we'll get lucky this time.

So there's so many things wrong in there. Let's focus on a couple. Before you say what's wrong, Dave, let's look at price on the screen. Every time you say I'm wrong, your price has been going down for almost a year now. You keep saying I'm wrong. Anybody who's... Well, that's like...

What I'm saying is you're wrong, but the price is going the wrong way. If I'm wrong, why is the price going that way? Going that way and dropping 80% from here are two very different things. I mean, in 2022, with combined bankruptcies

and multiple combined bankruptcies off of the de-leveraging event, confirmed bankruptcies, ones like Voyager and Celsius, it still, Bitcoin went from, 69,000 down to 30 or so. It held in the 30s until FTX blew up. FtX blew up. It brought it down to 16,000. Okay. Now, since that time, roughly the amount of money and assets and everything else

would tell you that should be at least 50% higher than that because that's the denominator. So if you basically said 50% more than 16 or a call for Bitcoin to drop to 25, while that would still probably piss off most of the people, that at least you could make mathematical justification, but you're basically calling for a drop of, well, I mean, you do the math. I mean, depending on how you want to look at it, a drop of 70% more than what the math says, that's what people are upset about. Or that's what some of us, mathematically speaking, if it did exactly the same thing as it did in 22, you would expect the bottom somewhere between 25 and 30. That's where you would expect. That's just the math. And so let's just get, let's just focus on that. That's when I make the

statement, you're wrong. Not that you're wrong because Bitcoin can't drop, that it can't follow through, although I disagree with that. But the math is just the 10,000, the only way Bitcoin gets to 10,000, there's only one way it gets there. And that is if a huge percentage of people who are holders believe it's going to fail, there's only one narrative that can make that happen, and that's quantum, full stop. It's just, it's just not the math. The math didn't math. I mean, FTCS selling was an insane event and that didn't get anything close to that number. So that's the point. And at the same time, we have a lot more. Now, gold. Gold is really interesting because it's telling you what you don't want to listen to. Gold had been held down. Nobody gave a shit. And all the central banks wanted gold to be

lower. And gold was held down relative to, and you could see it in the, you know, vis-a-vis the stock market. You see the all financial assets. Financial assets were being printed, printed, printed, printed, and gold stayed around 2000. It didn't go anywhere. Then what happened? Well, then central banks started buying and eventually there wasn't anyone to sell to them at those prices. So what happens? Central banks start buying and then contract for differences took off and that hot ball of money started pushing it gold. Those two things are what did what it did. I mean, that's just factual. We know that that's true. We know, look, I told you, I talked to the head of market making at the literal largest global market maker who told us that their biggest single

business for a year was precious metals contracts for differences. And so this is not a joke. This is whatever. You could even ask Rock. They now know it. It is at the same size of the CME. So you take, you effectively double the amount of speculation that was going on in the precious metals at the same time central banks were buying. That is not any different than why Nvidia doubled, triple to quadrupled. It's the same thing, right? People, certain fundamental asset managers started overweighting Nvidia in their portfolio and then all the speculators got in and wham. So gold peaked at 5,500, but then you start asking yourself, where is that equilibrium? Now, you don't disagree on where the equilibrium is. I told you, I think we're right there.

And so it's a question of speculation from here. But gold was held down for years. And, you know, whether it's got or the World Gold Council, you look through, you can talk to any of them. I mean, look, there are people, of course, on the crazy side, you know, that think it's still undervalued, but, you know, whatever. I think it's fairly valued around these ranges. And as long as the governments keep printing, that fair value goes higher. So those are the two things that I think are most, that audience needs to understand the most. But if you stop saying 10,000 and start saying 25 to 30, that'll piss, believe me, you'll get just as much rage bait. But you want to people like James and I saying, but your math doesn't math.

You don't disagree? Well, of course I disagree. I fully agree. I just think the number is nonsensical. It doesn't make sense. Right. But that's fine. Here's the good news is that there are Mike McClones out there that really believe that.

That means that they are not in the market. They're going to wait. And, you know, and that's fine. And there are people who really truly do believe, and they're in my comments all the time, that Bitcoin's over. It's the boomer coin of crypto. It doesn't do anything. It doesn't have yield. It's not, you know, it's not flashing.

enough it's too expensive it's not going to go up a hundred x like some of these other things and it's not it's just not a lottery ticket and i get that you know and that's that's what a lot of younger investors are looking for lottery tickets we've talked about this before and so and it's not a lottery ticket it's a it's a it's a an escape valve from the system that is oppressing you every day with inflation that it's a way to not get poor slowly so you know um but that that's fine that you have a different opinion um just want you to be you know don't want you be disingenuous about it and that that's why dave is calling you out on it is that that ten thousand dollar level is just i mean come on we had every single thing happen and in like

you said back in 2022 2023 and you know it it never got below 16 000 or they touched maybe right there. And since that time, think about just the sheer amount, not just money printing, the sheer amount of, you know, expansion of money, supply and,

and debt in the entire system. So if we, unless we have a collapse of all of that and the liquidity, not, so you have to add the money and liquidity, all, and the debt together to get the liquidity, we're not we're not going anywhere near 16,000 in this and I don't know about gold but I can't imagine that going down to a thousand you know that that might be like saying gold's going to be

at what 500 I just it just doesn't make sense now you have a different philosophy and you've made that extremely clear on here that your philosophy is that Bitcoin is just one of thousands of options in the cryptocurrency space and I I hear you. I understand why you think that. You know that Bitcoin's different, but you believe that the perception of it, and please correct me if I'm wrong,

but the perception of it doesn't matter. It is the only thing it matters, is that the people out there are looking for something to put their money in, and the whole crypto space is, you know, kind of loop together. And part of that is true. And part of that is why that perception has to gradually change.

you know but you can't get away from the fact that this coin has also become extremely political and it's been made to be political and it's got caught up in so many different nonsense things um so Dave is right I agree that we've we've got to get through this this quantum fear uh and and that's going to take some time and some clarity but it's also going to be it's going to it's going to require a genuine um explanation from places like Bloomberg and CNBC and Fox and all the rest of them, genuine, Mike, that they understand how it's different and why it makes sense to be a store of value. Because you're going against the major banks who have been fighting it all along, who now agree.

And they're not using it just because it's just something that they can sell their investors. they're actually building around it. And that's a key, that's a key development that's happened over the last, you know, two years. And it's taken time.

And it's going to continue to take time. On mainstream, it's it, it's over. It's going mainstream. And that means something completely different. It means that it really is becoming something closer to digital gold. When it gets there,

we don't know. But I have a very high degree of confidence that it will. It's just, you know, we all have to be. truthful and your truth is a little bit different than mine is. So that's the difference between wrong and truth. I'm expressing my views and we disagree. That's fine. But to say I'm wrong means you probably need to judge that with price. And so far,

for almost a year now, I've been right on the price going down. So call me an idiot. Fine. I enjoy that. Maybe let me... I never said you're an idiot. I didn't say that, but it's like the key, that's the key thing you need to understand is this, This is the key thing, but this is not, this is my independent view, nothing to do with Bloomberg at all ever. I understand. So, but it's not, it's, it's the key thing that as a strategist and as investor and as someone who's running, maybe leverage money, which kind of a lot of us, you do and you do, you

have to do. When people disagree with you like adamantly, typically you're right. And also, you have a vested interest in doing what you believe is going to happen. But stores of value, don't trade at multiple. many multiples of volatility of SB 500 and treasuries and have unlimited supply competitors. Now, what are Bitcoin forks? I'm going to say Bitcoin has, I do know Bitcoin has unlimited, but I remember there was Bitcoin Go, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin's Associate Vision.

Those are a lot of other Bitcoins. This whole space is just massive speculation. Bitcoin was the first, and then it's just reverting now. And I just put where it usually goes. So I've been pointing out the normal rotation for a bell curve in crude oil for 20 years now. It's 120 to 40. That's something we really need. And there's a substitutes coming on every day.

Biofuels and technology, same things in Bitcoin. Fully expected get back towards 10,000, maybe even lower. And the number one thing I'm pointing out is it's only seen two years with the S&P 500 total return down. And Bitcoin got hammered the whole space. It's just getting started. So I did even make the call. I know people get upset about it. spend twice since the beginning of this millennium. In 2000, we've had two 50% drawdowns

the S&B 500. I'm marrying that with Bitcoin dropping around 10,000 and all the rest of the altcoins taking what were worth billions down to millions or even thousands. That's the key thing is there's, it's why I started really using that analogy between dubs and pigeons. And precious metals, I was really bullish mostly because they're dubs. There's really four that metal. There's only 10 metals that really metal. So it's really bullish. But they reached a two high plateau. Same thing in crypto's from many years ago, but they reached a two high plateau and they're all heading lower. But the purge is early days, and we still haven't had beta really accelerated. So when the tide goes out, that's when you're going to see.

We haven't seen right now it's leading. So on the year, Bitcoin's down 20 percent. I sense a lot of bullishness. That's really bearish to me because all you keep saying is about buying dips. How it usually happens in bear market. There's everything I'll remember. One thing I want to point out, everybody. Respect the bear.

Where are you during bullishness? no no headlines are bullish in in in just from the two your comments just pushing back in my call well but my my time i'm a contrarian i'm a contrarian statement i want to be very clear and then you you go because i'm not i'm just going to say this when i say the words you are wrong i am not referring to your direct the direction of your call although i disagree with it i use the word wrong once in make some math mistakes. I'm basically saying 10,000 is rage bait, clickbait bullshit. And the rest of the call, if you change that number to 30, while I would disagree with it, it would be an opinion and we'll see, yada, yada. It's not, but what I'm just talking about math, that's what

I'm talking about. Nothing more, nothing less. Okay. Exactly. Yeah, that's right. That's right. It just doesn't, it doesn't, it, it seems disingenuous. But I see how you, you, you believe how you got there. And that's what you believe. It's just a different belief. And that's fine. And we can have that. So I got here by being really bullish. I got to bearish gold by being really bullish because it was nice to catch part of a

rally. But when things get out of hand and bull markets reach peaks that can typically last for decades, if precious metals are example, if crude oil is example, just look at that high at 120 in 2008. We just got back there again this year. It's 2008. That's almost 20 years ago. What happens in commodities? It's elasticity.

Cryptos to me are the same. But so we can, we can, we, it's just a key thing though is I think it, go ahead. Let's pull back way back. Okay, Bitcoin's just part of this conversation. It happens to be like a central part of our conversation often, but we got to pull way back here. This time is different. It's not that it's different. It's that the waves are getting more violent in the markets.

And the reason they're getting more violent in the markets because there's so much more leverage in the markets. Why is there so much more leverage in the markets? because there's so much debt in the markets. We are literally running over 120 debt to GDP now. That is mind-blowing. And so if you step back, what's that? That's 1-30. Yeah, it's 130 now.

So if you step back, if you take all public in, if you step back and look at these markets and say, okay, do you believe that our economy is intertwined with the stock market and is how intertwined is it? I happen to believe it is critical to the health of our overall economy. That's what I believe. And maybe I'm overstating that, but I don't think I am. And I think that you guys would agree with me that it is critical to the economy.

So stock market is the economy. It's 2.3 times GDP. Thank you. It was 2.3 earlier in here. Okay. So if you believe, Mike, that we have a draw. down and we do have a violent move downward 20%. Now, you're saying just a mean reversion, but if we get a 10, 20, 30 percent drawdown and we get another 40, 50 percent drawdown in

Bitcoin because of it, okay, you're still in over near 10,000. However, you're looking at an economy that would create deficits that would they would explode. They wouldn't go to three trillion. They would go to four or five trillion. Do you agree with me on that? Just do the math. It's exactly what's happening in China now and what's happened in Japan for a less 30 years. Yes. And there was increasing deflation and yields went much lower.

It's oxymoron. What people keep pointing about is increasing supply and a recession means yields go lower. It's fuel. Right. So it always works. If then you go, okay. So then you're, but you're, you're running deficits now that are just, they're absolutely massive. Okay.

So who buys the debt? Fed. Fed buys that. Fed buys it. Yeah. So what's happening in Japan and what's happened in China and what's happened to the U.S. The Fed buys it. But it's a deflation in environment.

So I'll make a call. The history of the last like 20 years, CPI's bottom at 0%. The last time it got really low was in 2009 and got down the 2% after crude oil pumped and dump. I think by next year, CPI is going to be negative. Right, because you're saying to demand. It's a normal cycle. Yeah, it's normal cycle. And the stock market is the economy.

That's the right point is it's very difficult being long, that type of risk asset when everything's dependent on it going up. We've reached the end game. Bitcoin warned us. Gold warned us. Yeah, but the end game is the end game is the other side of that, which is a deluge of money printing. Massive, massive, massive liquidity dumped into the markets

because they cannot have the markets collapse like this and still sustain the debt. It's not mathematically possible. The math does not work. And so what you would see is collapses of currencies across the entire world. And that would be catastrophic. Right. The Chinese holdings of treasuries dropped to low since 2008. They've dumped half their treasuries in this period.

So we've got to get all the way. Yeah, you've got to go all the way back to, Like, it's, I, I hear you on cycle. Why don't we start with this? I hear you on, on mean reversion and all of that. But it's different this time. It's not that it's different this time. It's that we have, we have grown to a spot in, in leverage and debt to, to, like,

we're staring over a cliff. Like, that's, this is, it's not that it's different. It's that it's different from 1970, 1980 when we had debt to GDP of 30%. Like, this is an entirely different world that we've, that we have grown into. It's not like we're suddenly in a different spot. Like this is like we have taken the whole ship and gone into a completely different world.

And so that's the issue that we're staring at economically. And so where I push back on is there is no way that we can continue this charade without the charade continuing. You know, you must have, you know, you must continue to print money and dump liquidity into the markets. And what happens to every asset, when you do that. Well, they're going to save the market. They have to. If they don't, Mike,

we're in a world that's going to be pretty ugly. And forget about owning stocks and Bitcoin. You better own ammo and fuel and water and have backup, you know, for meal. No, James, but listening to this interestingly, so I think where there's a lot of disconnect, not with you at all, but when obviously people read Mike's V's. Mike, you say 10K Bitcoin, that usually gets picked up as a headline. But when you say, hey, the stock market's going to go down another 50, 60, 70 percent, well, you marry those two and I could actually see it. Right. So I don't think Bitcoin's going to 10K, by the way. But I think if Bitcoin media put your entire view, aka like the greatest of all depressions in the headline,

maybe they wouldn't get as mad because actually we focus, I think, on what you're saying about Bitcoin and its relationship to other coins, which obviously three of us disagree with. But if you're just putting Bitcoin as another asset in context of markets going down 60 or 70%, I guess you can see how you arrive at 70, 80. I'm just trying to kind of play devil's advocate. I disagree with it. I don't think it's going to happen, but I wish that people would say, hey, Bloomberg commodity analysts believes that all markets are dropping 50 plus percent and that Bitcoin will drop slightly more. Yeah, that's a better way to put it. So I've enjoyed this discourse in Crudeau last year, I reiterated a headline I put out for two years that the normal cycle

is for Crudol to get too expensive around 20 and get too cheap around 40. And I just reiterated the headline that's going to go $40 a barrel. I got a call that same day from a friend of mine in Texas and a friend of mine in Saudi Arabia. I loved it. It was great. And all it can never happen. But now that we spike, we had a pretty significant, you know, trend heading lower. It just got a great short covering pop.

And it just is going to increase the supply, demand, kicking the demand. construction and go back down. It's just how the world's changed. And it's increased the things I wrote about in 2022, just increased that ability of technology to replace crude. But that's the cycle. I put that in the same headline with Bitcoin and then 10,000, but that's the thing how people distort it. This is not a simple micro view where my math is wrong. I'm just pointing out normal reversion. The key thing to remember about someone's math being wrong is there is an unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies and they all have somewhat competitive nature with a Bitcoin. They all have some correlation. Just point that out, when Dogecoin drops to zero, that'll be a pressure factor. And it's just number one thing is

of what's tight with something that I really think is going to get. If Dogecoin drops to zero, a lot of that money goes into Bitcoin. Well, that's that point. It could, but that money just puff disappears. It's things that happens when markets go down. It's not because of selling spids out. I mean, I remember seeing in trading pitch. You get a bad piece of data bids out. Market drops a handle. It's not because they're selling. and then you reset. You just puff, you know, wealth disappears. And that's what happens with stuff that tracks nothing on a screen. And that's where you have all those millions of cryptocurrencies. Now, the key thing, I want to tilt over, the key thing, I still think it's going to continue to happen.

And it's one of the most bullish things I've been pointing out since 2018. And that's Tether flipping anything, everything. Right now it's behind, there's only number three. It was like 20, just a couple years ago. I'm pretty sure it's going to flip an Ethereum this year and then flip in Bitcoin. The space is awesome. But the speculating. just still needs purging and the purging to start. Mike, I find this actually really interesting. I know, Dave, you're dying. But just give you a second.

So this is Q1, 2026 change in Bitcoin ownership. You can see individuals dumped 62,000 Bitcoin. Businesses bought 69,000. Governments bought 25,000. Funds and ETFs added 3,000. This to me, listen, it's one quarter, but it's a quarter and arguably a bare market shows exactly why I disagree with you

because individuals are dumping Bitcoin business, governments, and funds are buying it, and they're not buying those coins. So these individuals are also the people who are retail, who own Shiba Inu and all of the long tail of garbage, and they've dumped, or as I said to you, I think last week on Market Mavericks, these coins are down so bad that your average holder of a random meme coin, it's too low to sell, but they've forgotten it as dust in a wallet. Those coins are never going to move again, and their market cap will remain where it is without any more selling. They are dead by any definition except for the aggregate value.

There's nobody left to sell these things. So I want to point out one other thing that is maybe this explains why the difference between Mike and I on some of this stuff. So Mike learned how to trade in commodities and in pits in commodities. And every one of those commodities exhibits the following characteristics. They are all, they have aggregate supply that is extremely, extremely elastic to price. They have holders that are somewhat elastic to price, and they have demand that is absolutely elastic to price. All of them have those characteristics. The price was always in dollars. You never had to think about exchange rates or denominators, et cetera, although it was happening in any trading scenario you don't care. So like if you watch,

but one of my favorite shows out there is I love Landman. Billy Bob Thornton, John Hamm was amazing. There is an, there is an incredible rant from John Hamm before he died, his character dies, where he's talking about the need of the oil industry to stop worrying about this climate change bullshit, that they all hate you anyway, et cetera, et cetera. And he talks about the need to keep price between, uh, was that 68 and 70 something. I mean, whatever it was. It was somewhere, wherever it is.

And the role, but, but what's happening is two massive forces in oil. One is the continued devaluation of all currencies because of printing. So each dollar is worth less. And so that changes your value of the price. And that pushes the price to be higher. And the other is a relentless push of technology, which is make extraction and the cost of producing oil to go lower. The net of it is, the technology is winning that fight, has been winning that fight. And so the cost of production at 55 isn't markedly different.

different than it was when there was, you know, 30% less dollars floating around. And so obviously, you know, by my estimation, then the cost of production in 2010 dollars is probably somewhere around 40, right? And, you know, whatever the number is, it's something around that. Now, flip that to my experience, trading equities in Europe in the 90s. And I watched as the currency crises unfolded around the Maastricht Treaty. And you, you, You trade Italian equities as the Italian lira is getting devalued and you learn, wait a minute, the stocks go higher when the lira gets devalued. Why? Because the companies, even though some of them are, a lot of them are earning their money in other places and it doesn't matter. There's

more lira so that that acts to push up the price of companies. We are in a world where the entire world is seeing what I learned in the Italian stock market, which is on nominal terms to expect things to drop or we're printing more money globally and we're doing it globally that's not even a question you know the last stalwart was there is no choice there's no choice so there's no choice to me we have got we have created a situation where we have no choice right so that that to me is a major difference in the way i look at assets now within that if you're expecting if you're calling for a deflationary collapse which is essential it mike's calling for right i don't want to care characterize you wrong. It's a deflationary collapse. Right, with depression,

call it whatever you want, where people expect lower prices, lower values, whatever, in a vicious circle because the whole world is falling apart. I think that that, it's not that it's impossible, but a inflationary collapse is dramatically more possible. In fact, almost certainly will be the response. And we saw it in COVID, which was a trial run. The difference in the other big difference, Mike, between you and I is you look at COVID as the as the as the policymakers learn their mistake and they'll never do it again. And I think they learned that they could actually succeed. And so they will absolutely fucking do it again.

And that to me is the difference. And, you know, yes, they probably won't give out Stimmy checks, although if they can think they can buy votes with it, they will. I mean, I don't think policymakers learn. I mean, Elizabeth Warren talking about wealth taxes is about as clear evidence that policymakers don't learn. There is not a shred of evidence. that has ever existed to show that wealth taxes do anything. So well with voters in a downturn. Well, yeah, because voters are ignorant.

Talking about it, talking about it. It's great rage bait, you know, against the billionaire class. Yeah, but it's not just about the billionaires. It's, you see this and you see people who are supposedly in positions of authority. The world has moved towards let's clickbait this shit. And, you know, whether or not she genuinely. believes it or not. I don't know. Is she a moron? Probably not. Maybe she knows she's lying. You know, to me that she should be permanently, you know, the entire notion. I mean, I think

Bernie Sanders literally is dumb enough to believe it. But, you know, I don't know, AOC is almost certainly dumb enough to believe it because, you know, at bartending school, that's what they taught her, right? You know, but the truth is when you, when you propose something that is so monumentally dumb and you say stupid things like that and it becomes part of the discourse, Yes, we're dumbed down. But can we get to, those are the people you think learn their lesson? I think that's wrong because I think there's a really good chance that they will be in power in 2028. And their playbook is going to be the thing they know they can do is print money.

Whether or not. Dave, and that's the point. It's not even their choice. It's the system is the way it's set up. The system rewards you for certain things. And it's going to reward the people who make the decisions with money printing. It's the expansion of the money and kicking it down the road. That's what they're going to get rewarded for.

You think anybody's going to want to drive this economy or keep the economy in a, you know, in a longstanding recession and drawn out recession, hell no. There's no, there doesn't, there's nobody who's incentivized for that. Nobody. There's nothing they can do about it. Here's the point. We've reached the end game. What you are all saying is stuff that people like me who are really bullish Bitcoin and gold many years ago.

It's expected. The point is markets price forward and price set in. Everything you're saying, if you look at the price of gold versus a basket of treasuries, it's the highest since 1982. Okay, so I don't think I want to be buying gold in that environment. You already bought it, did very well. Thank you very much. You look at the price.

We had this major arguments a year ago when it took almost 40 ounces of gold for one Bitcoin and Dave told me I was an idiot. I said, now it's like 14 ounces. Okay. And then we had that S&P 500. versus Bitcoin. It was running around 18. Now it's 10. That's my point is you get to a certain point and you have supply, demand, and price. Price shifts most. It's shifted most in cryptos. They got too expensive and gold. They got too expensive. All the fundamental things you're pointing out.

That's great. That's my point out earlier on. The hardest thing to do is to identify when that widely expected narrative, as Benjamin Disraeli said, typically doesn't happen, has reached an apex. So everything you're saying is what I hear everywhere. Thank you very much. What have markets done? They priced it in. Thank you very much. Now what do you do? Do the opposite, because the risk as an optional trade,

I'm obviously an option trader is what's the optionality? Everything you price, you're talking about is you wait for the opportunities. I've been pointed out all the year. Bitcoin around 900,000 was the first good level. It got to 96. Now we're at 75. Silver above 100 was a place to sell. Gold made me above 5,000 a place to sell.

Copper above six, like I keep saying, these are simple little things. You point out the nearest, I point, okay, prove me wrong. I'm doing the opposite because, markets already priced it in. And those are the key levels I stick with it. Prove me wrong. Get on some of these key levels. But you're worried about, yeah, my, I'm bearish fiat is what I am. That's what I am. I'm not, I'm not bullish on, on any specific thing here. I'm, I am bullish on Bitcoin as a part of the other side of that trade, which is, or that investment, that long term investment, which is, I'm bearish on fiat. I think they're going to

continue to destroy the value of the dollar and every single currency in the in the world. That's what I'm, that is my outlook. And it's not that I'm negative. I'm actually a positive guy. I'm just watching what they do and reacting to it and positioning myself for it. So then that's where that's how I differ from that from the way that you frame that. Yeah. I just want to say, you're not the only bear, Mike.

Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on a staggering $3.73 billion in cash, enough by 480 companies in the S&P 500. And then there is other negative data that's worth noting, right? I mean, we have a financial stress among U.S. consumers, the relinquency rate on subprime loans, up to 10% of outstanding debt the highest in 11 years. Not close yet to 2008, but kind of, you know, starting to ring of that. And of course, we have a high oil prices. And this was interesting.

We're at 91% right now for rate of change on oil. 100% has preceded effectively every single crash and we still have a hormone's close. So 9% greater rise there. And of course, the private credit warnings from Jamie Diamond. But I'm struggling to find where the bullish people are that are the indicator, right? I guess on the flip side, Mike, but there are a lot of people who are very bearish here. And a lot of this is pretty telling data. Well, the conversation. The distraction here. The point is, thanks to point out of Crudeau, when Crudel rallies like this velocity to break stuff, it's breaking stuff.

Maybe it's different, but that's why I think this is not a crash. I think it's normal reversion. So as we walked into this year, as we had this invasion happen, the stock market volatility is running near a 10-year low, and stock market cap the GDP is running 2.3 times near 100-year high. I'm just expecting normal reversion. Gold warned us. Cryptos warned us. I'm putting stops on it.

Prove me wrong. market tell market prove me wrong is your stop on bitcoin if you were short in theory above 75 well i'm using that as a level i mean that's a level to put out now here's a key theme about bitcoin at the point it's been too easy to be short honestly once you got above 100 it's been it goes down to levels and hovers and i'm not trade i can't trade anymore and it gets your little bounces it doesn't rip your face off and then go down crude well just ripped everybody's face off i mean it had a classic pattern that looked like was going to do something it did it had a good reason And now we're going to see what happens with that, you know, just simple pattern recognition.

That's for me, I think it broke everything. And it can't be easy. Remember, this is only, we've been talking about this for months. This is only April. And we get the summer joltrums coming. And, you know, it's got to be some time that's going to be difficult. And like I said, well, Bitcoin hasn't made it difficult yet. I'm just waiting for the people who have decided to hate me because I just put out views that they disagree with when they say, hey, Mike, it's about 70,000, you're wrong.

Or 75,000. It's like, okay. The thing is, we need some kind of cleansing, short covering. We just got that in Crudeau. We had it in natural gas in the beginning of year. Got up to 7. Now it's 284. That's the number one heat, measure, heat electricity.

The oil is pushing up, right? I mean, it's not like oil had to blow off top, right? I mean, we're still what... Well, it hasn't. The high was 120. It's still pushing up. It could go hard. That's the point.

It's going to break things harder. The higher goes, the harder it's going to fall. It's usually the way it works. Anyone? Dave, James? I mean, I think that the most important point here is nominal versus, you know, nominal versus adjusted terms. If we believe Fiat is going is being printed consistently and they're going to keep doing it, they're trying to keep the illusion going. There are multiple ways

this can end. But one thing that can't happen is you can't have a situation where you see the nominal prices of assets drop when they're continuing to print more and more money. That is really hard to do. It can happen. That's not true. That's happening in China for the last 10 years. It happened in Japan for 30 years. That's completely false. It's a fact. Dave, it's false. Look at what's having China right now. I mean, you're talking about their debt GDP is 300%. They're running their money supplies running two to three times with the U.S. is and yet they still have a property that's collapsing, property collapse. That's the point. One of it. There's nothing you can really do. Okay, fine. So you're right. I'm talking, but in gold terms, that's.

you know, golden wand. I mean, I don't know what golden one is done. You know, I think it's done pretty well. I think there's a difference between assets like real estate, like you build cities that have no occupancy. Those prices are going to crawl. Cratch. Banks that own the debt of those things are going to crash. Those, that is absolutely correct. In Japan, we had, you forget that when the Japanese market imploded in 1989 through 1990, whatever the hell it was before it hit the bottom. And I was there, right? You know, I was building Japanese program trading systems and building global program desks at the time. So believe me, I know. Japanese stocks companies were valued at 3 to 4x what the rest of the world was like.

And look at what they fell. They fell by that exact amount. Why? Everyone said, oh, the Japanese stocks, of course, there were headlines, and this is exactly where you and I agree. There were headlines day after day after day. The Japanese miracle, they should be valued more. But what was really true was there was a thing called Karetsu,

where they all owned each other's stocks and so the free float was really small. And so foreigners trying to buy into Japan had to deal with the fact that the free flow was tiny and they were pushing the price up. The same thing happened in the internet bubble. All those stocks, so many of them that people were trading that went absolutely insane

that insiders controlled huge percentages. What was the real pinprick? The real pinprick was insider selling and the free float's expanding and all of a sudden there was no there. And the ones that survived well like Amazon. actually built real models. At a certain point, assets have to be tethered to the real economy, right?

So looking at this stuff is important. Now, when we talk about, and so, yeah, I find myself agreeing with you on that. Bitcoin is something very different, and it's a bet. I have repeatedly said it. You can go back and reread the article. I retried to post it. You can re-post it again. I explain this.

It is an option. It is an option on adoption. And quantum is the biggest single risk to adoption right now. It's actually not a real risk, but it will happen. But that is why, what? It's the largest perceived risk. The largest perceived risk to adoption. That adoption curve based on power law, based on lots of other things, based on the fact

that the banks are in here is should be far more likely, but you have to value an option based on that probability. And that's the essence of our disagreement. It's not about the economy. It's not about this. I mean, yes, nominal prices of assets can go up. I mean, look at the things that we know. We know, like, as a no, we know that we've watched massive retracement. I mean, 50% retracements, 40% retracements of the entire

infrastructure to AI sector. Yet, there's not a shred of evidence that the spending on AI is going to slow down before 2030, right? We know that. It may be that AI companies themselves won't be able to make the kind of revenue, but the only thing that's going to hurt the AI infrastructure plays in the United States right now, there's only two real threats to it. One are politicians claiming to make data centers not get built. And the other is SpaceX. And we end up putting most of AI space. And the first one isn't going to happen because all you'll see, it'll be like a China mining ban. It'll move to friendly states. And you'll end up with data centers. And they're going to get built. And the other is five plus years out. And yeah, that will be a major thing. If you're

basically valuing, like I own iron, if you're valuing iron based upon earnings in 2040, you're probably out of luck. Not shit out of luck, but it's going to decelerate. If you're owning it based on what it's going to earn between now in 2035, you're probably okay. And you're probably okay and it's probably cheap. All of these factors have to get looked at. I mean, we like to talk, we always try to simplify this for our audience in the soundbites. But every single investment decision is multivariate. Like you brought a Bitcoin gold. Yeah, I was wrong. I thought gold was going to stay more of it. I completely missed the hotball of money moving into gold. 100%. Wrong. I own it. I've owned it many times. That is not the same thing when Bitcoin is trading vis-a-vis gold at the bottom of its range versus the top.

At the top of the range, I was too bullish. 100%. At the bottom of the range, you're too bearish. And that's all I'm going to say. I may be right. I may be wrong. I don't know. But you and I have had that conversation. I own it when I'm wrong. Those are the sorts of things that people should care about, right? And that's a good point. And I will. Exactly.

You got to own it when you're wrong. You're assuming it's the bottom of the range. If you just look at a few years, I go back for it. Yeah, if I'm wrong there, I will own it. But to me, that was the best indicator when I did that. But yeah, good point. But right now, it's just hovering at that level. That's why this is an orderly bare market.

I don't see why I should, you know, do anything. but stick with the, you know, don't just don't reject the bear. Just respect it. And so far I'm respecting, just waiting for it to prove me wrong. It hasn't yet. It just keeps accelerating. And we've talked about this before. If the market does turnover and it draws down 10 or 20 percent, Bitcoin will go down with it.

I fully expect that. I've been saying it all along. But James, is that it or when? I mean, do we expect we're not going to have another percent, 20 percent draw down the S&B 500? That's why I want to ask your question of it. because the last one he had to me was the classic case of pattern recognition. It went down so far, so quick and up so fast, almost the fastest in history. To me, that was a sign that that's the last one.

People think it's too easy now. The only thing you can do is you get to buy the dip. That, to me, is when the signal was over. And then kind of warned us that's over. So to me, the next correction is going to be the one that goes down and stays down. Yeah, and that's where we differ, because I think that correction will be, we will have a massive amount of liquidity dumped into the market to overcorrect the other side again. And that's just the natural way. And I don't think that we're anywhere near, like Dave pointed out,

the problems that China and Japan have structurally. I think it's, and especially because we are the largest stock market in the world, the U.S., not we, the U.S. stock market. And so it, it, it's, You know, you're talking about now, you're talking about global effects that are just that that none of us probably truly understand fully anyways. So, but the reality is I just differ on the outcome. And that's, that's where we sit. And that's fine. I have people. I think the funny thing is that for all the listeners, Mike, Dave and I agree on so much.

We agree on so much. those things. Yeah. That's the irony of all of this is that we can see you and have discourse and I like Mike and, you know, Dave and Scott, you're okay, but you know, we all can disagree. We have so much that we agree on. And wow, does that make a market or what? And that's the reality. Now you're hearing in real time how real investors look at markets and they may differ on the same exact information that they're looking at the same they may have the same exact thesis all the way up to the point of the outcome and that's just that's the difference i got people i know in real life in the chat that have been watching the show forever rage quitting so if you want any indication that like bottom of

sentiment and that people just can't take it i get it well this is a reality of the market right now too is that if you think that i i have conversations like this with other investors they're just like no i I think this. No, I think this. This is a difficult market. This is one of the most, if not the most difficult market I've ever been in. And, you know, and it's, that's, that's, that's the reality. And so hopefully what we do here on this show is help guide people to form their own opinions too, because that's the most important thing.

For you to have your own opinion when you're looking at these markets to decide what you need to do for your wealth and your investments in your family. That's the hope. Yeah, I mean, everybody's going to have to make their decisions. I mean, it's not like, it's not like Mike is selling your stocks for you guys in your portfolio. Jeez. Mike's not out there shilling gold and, you know, talking about anything. It's a big difference. It's just one of those things.

It happened to me in 2006. I was there. I see a hurricane coming and it's my duty to warn people. I totally agree. Well, that's what we got for you today at 10.05. We cooked it. We hadn't had that. And I see people like you said, you would move on.

from the 10,000. We haven't talked about this in months, I feel like. And I think it was good to actually have the conversation again because it's a reflection of exactly where people are at and where the emotions are. And the longer price stays where it is, the louder the bearish sentiment gets and it becomes a larger topic of conversation. And I think it's good to have it. Let's just hope that we don't get truth down to 10K in any given moment because God knows what possibly is coming next for us. At some point, we'll have to be talking about all the IPOs that that are supposedly coming, the SpaceX and the Anthropics and all. It's going to just be.

Yeah, that's the next way, my God. Very interesting topic once we get clarity on those. Yeah. I mean, look, nothing happens as long as this uncertainty is where it is. Just remember, every single one of these IPOs will get postponed until the straits are open and the world is at, or whatever, whatever. It will not help open until there's certainty here. That's just not going to happen.

You know, we know that. We've seen this movie before. And believe me, in boardrooms, people are scrambling. There is a reason why a lot of firms having seen this, and if you notice, there was a bunch of a big round of private financing right before this war started. It happened for a reason. Yeah, a big round.

That pretty, pretty nice valuations. So, yep. And we're sitting there. Good job. Well, Dave, we get to go do this again in nine minutes on space. Yeah, we'll have fun. Okay. Guys, thank you for your perspective. It's always intelligent and respectful discourse, even on the topics that we wholeheartedly disagree on.

And at the end of the day, we're just going to be here every week. Watch what the market does. It's not like we don't have a scoreboard. We do. And that's why we all have to admit we're wrong when we're wrong. And I certainly am raised my hand. Very easy. All right.

That's all we got. Thank you, guys. See you next Monday. Bye. Let's go.