The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Sell-Off: Why Crypto Markets Are Bleeding | Macro Monday

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

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It is Monday morning and Bitcoin is once again slowly dropping and chopping sideways while altcoins bleed. All of this in the wake of the largest hack in crypto history last week and some very questionable economic data coming in from around the world. I can't wait to unpack everything happening in macro here on Macro Monday with Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger and seemingly new regular Larry Lepard. Guys, it's gonna be a great show. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. What is up everybody?

I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. And if you're new to the channel, you can subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell. And if you're new to the channel, you can subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell. And if you're new to the channel, you can subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell. And if you're new to the channel, you can subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell. And if you're new to the channel, you can subscribe to the channel by clicking on the bell. And if you're new to the channel, What is up everybody?

I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel, hit that like button. I have regrets in there that I missed macro Monday last week, something I try not to do. But luckily, I only speak for about 30 aggregate seconds on this show each week and I can easily be replaced probably by AI but certainly by Noel Atchison and Larry Lepard who is here once again today. I call you Larry. I know you write Lawrence but you're always Larry. I'm Larry. I'm Larry to everybody who knows me. Yeah, I just, you know, formal name.

Congratulations. Thanks for having me back guys. Yeah, I have become a regular kind of strength. We love it. We love it. So James is out of pocket. Obviously, today, we'll all do our best to represent him well. So Mike, maybe we should start with the morning meeting quite a bit happening. I actually have quite a bit that I was pulling up on inflation in Japan. Maybe we can touch on that generally. But what's going on around the world in the macro?

Well, I'll start with the headline. thought is the most prominent this morning on Bloomberg. It's Trump targets China with biggest sell-off so far in second term. I mean, that was stuff we all talked about and completely was predicted by the no trade is free rubber. Lighthizer just getting started. But from the morning meeting, yeah, you're throwing that up there. From the morning meeting, Anish was focusing on Doge. Her conclusion is, yeah, they're somewhat overestim from the morning meeting that honest was focusing on Doge her conclusion is

Yeah, they're somewhat overestimating the cuts, but this is only been a month It's for some of us. This is the most shocking thing I've ever seen hopefully we were hoping for you know move fast break things But the disinflation air impact of Doge she thinks will be a pretty significant deflationary force quite substantial and it might a pretty significant deflationary force, quite substantial, and it might have marginal unemployment effect and Fed's going to be more likely to cut because of Doge was her key conclusions. The key thing from Gina who's been uniquely bearish on the equity market, she's pointing out US stocks are starting to lag the rest of the world this year and that's very rare for that to not continue.

Once it gets started, usually lasts for the entire year and she's pointing to operating margins are falling expectations expectations for earnings are just way too high Um are and that's kind of the main key the key things from the meeting my biases commodities are going down Larry what do you think except yeah, yeah, I speaking to larry No, that's right. I mean, look, I see continued, we're starting to see some signs of economic weakness last week.

I think we saw that PMI was soft and inflation expectations are higher. The Japan inflation number, which you just referred to, I don't have the number right at the top of my, yeah. Japan's about 4%. Japan's inflation rate climbs to 4% in January, highest in two years. And this is interesting what you just touched on,

the inflation expectations. Go ahead. Right, and I think that's just because people are seeing it everywhere. I mean, how can you not see it? My example this morning, I went to do, I just got returned to Twitter, so I wanted to do a proof of me.

I bought the Wall Street Journal. You know the Wall Street Journal and the printed edition now cost $5? I was shocked. I was just shocked. They still make a printed edition? I guess they do. I guess that's the more relevant question. Yeah, there's that too. But still, isn't that an amazing price? I just, you know, it's

an old fashion. Yeah, it's funny. I always argue. I always hated newsprint, so I'm perfectly happy to do everything. Yeah, well, I bought one in years. I only bought it for this one time per piece. No, I get that. I get that. You know, I always used to look on this show at something. I was just looking at it this morning.

One of my favorite economic indicator, you know, is the Baltic Dry Index, which is tripping. And what's fascinating about it is it looks like it really hit a pretty bad bottom at the end of January. And, you know, and in fact, if you go back even on a five year basis, what it was at the end of January was very close to it. We hit at the end in February of twenty three. We hit slightly lower than that. But it's still bouncing around the bottom. It's up a little bit from that actually, I mean, in percentage terms, fairly significant.

Yeah, there's a monthly chart I brought up, yeah. The point is, yeah, I mean, the point is, is that we're kind of at that place where over recent history, economic activity is kind of bouncing around the bottom. And, you know, when we start talking about starting to roll over, I get worried because you have to go back a very, very long way, going back to a very long way

to find it much lower than where it is. I mean, it did get lower in 15, significantly lower, like half of where it is today, actually less than half, 15 or 16. Before that, you're going back into the 80s. And so when I look at this, it's like the world in January was terrified of Trump tariffs, right? You had a bit of an acceleration.

So in December, people shipping stuff before the tariffs got hit, then January was weak, and now it kind of looks like it's normalizing. If in point of fact tariffs ended up being reciprocal, then it will end up being a nothing burger because it'll be a negotiating point. And it's really a question of how the rest of the world reacts. I mean, the thing that's interesting about Trump and the Lighthizer and this philosophy is it really matters on what the other side does. We don't know what the other side is gonna do, right?

We saw a little bit of a salvo with some China news over the weekend that they're kind of, well, we wanna be able to keep doing the tariffs and keep doing the things to promote our trade. And so they're looking at other stuff and they're whining a lot now. Now they're actually going into the press,

which to me is kind of funny. You know, it's like, you know, the political bedfellows nonsense, you know, where the Chinese are pushing Democrats to, you know, whine and complain and stir up people to try to get opposition, which will have as much success as the typical me arguing with my wife when I'm wrong. It won't work. Does it work when you're right? When I'm right, it worked very infrequently, but when I'm wrong, it never works. And since I'm wrong more than I'm right,

you know, when it comes to that situation, it's like... If you're wrong all the time, that's just by default. But my point is that we're... All the world's in negotiation. We have the chief negotiator in chief and an administration filled with negotiators. I mean, you look at that cabinet. You have a trader in secretary, a really accomplished trader

as secretary of the Treasury. We have a really accomplished negotiator in business building and the secretary of commerce. You look at the people he's staffing his administration with. Even JD Vance walks into Europe and basically Secretary of Commerce, right? You look at the people he's staffing his administration with, I mean, this is a team, even JD Vance walks into Europe and basically tells them, you guys suck in a speech, brilliant speech, by the way, just from a content point of

view as a, what do you call it, a rhetorician or a student of rhetorical history, that speech will actually be studied years from now. But the fact is this is a negotiating administration. And so we don't know what's going to happen because it really is going to depend on what Xi decides to do. And I don't think anyone cares what Europe wants to do because they can't figure out what they want to do themselves, so much less anything else. And who knows what Stammerer will do in the UK. I mean, he's like, you know, whatever, we could go down that rabbit hole. But the point is, is that what I kind of think

what Anna says is right. When you look at what Doge is doing, they are scaring the living crap out of all of the politicians and their families who are making money on the back of us in the business community. And they're gonna be talking about, yeah, there's gonna be a lot of unemployment in the Washington area, that's certainly true. Northern Virginia house prices are already looking really sickly.

But if that happens, then the Fed has some room. And we'll see how that goes. I mean, the other last point that I'll make, because Mike didn't make it, but should, because you usually do, Mike, is the ratio of the stock market capitalization to GDP continues to look ludicrous. And so that's why the US stock market is extended.

Now, none of this, in my opinion, has anything to do with Bitcoin, except for, I look at this this and the most important stat with Bitcoin is If you if you woke up three months ago to the day of where we are today And you said I'm gonna go to sleep for three months and come back. That's exactly where we are If you were did the same thing with all coins, you're like what the hell happened to my money If you did the same thing with all coins, you're like, what the hell happened to my money? Now, I think another interesting point that we should bring up is just that Friday was a pretty ugly day in the markets and the stock markets kind of all around. And I say that because I actually got a call from a friend who's a big fund manager and he was like, what is going on?

You know, it's and I don't know if it's the start of a trend or not but in the back of my head one of the things I'm thinking is You know these guys are running around and they are gonna break things and they are gonna try new policies there and and the market has been Oblivious to it. In fact has given them a lot of credit that you know They're gonna solve a lot of problems and I think maybe that will fade over time It's that that sentiment will start to wear off and people will start to realize that no this is actually going to be kind of messy and in a market that's price perfection from a risk point of view you know the Trump administration brings a lot of risks and you know so I think the stock market is very very vulnerable at this point in time. The important point Larry is, I don't know if you look at this stuff and Mike,

I know you do is the dramatic increase versus previous eras of ETF and passive investing. Yes. Matters a lot here because what actually is happening is, and I'm not plugging active managers. You know, I know, you know, people like Cliff Asmuth from AQR, if you were listening, I doubt he does. But if you were listening, he would be, oh, really, Weisberger is actually saying good things about us.

But the simple fact is that you have a very large set of changes that are going to be implemented in the economy. If you're a domestic manufacturer of healthy foods, you're going to do well. If you are a international manufacturer using agribusiness seeds with what Kennedy is likely to do to try to fix the American diet, you're gonna get screwed.

If you're a big pharma company that relies upon an FDA that's effectively captured, not going to do as well as you would. But if you are a biotech company who may find an easier path toward approval of actual drugs with real clinical science without the 10 years of bureaucratic delays, you're gonna be better off.

I mean, I could go on. Yeah, but Dave, the question is how much of the materials for those are going to be under tariffs that are coming from other countries, which is the nuance of being obviously in a global economy. I take this, like, Apple will add 20,000 US jobs amid threat from Trump tariffs. Larry, Larry, if you wanted some proof that people are taking this seriously, right? As you said, I mean, people are they're concerned and

actually making a move. That's not a small drop in the bucket reactionary move from Apple. That's huge. They really believe this. It's a key thing that I think that remind us about what's happening is Doge is a shocker, the world's largest employer and creation creator of excess liquidity. It's cutting back like something we've never seen before. and it's the fear that kicks in. And it's happening with markets most stretched by most measures when you can say ever, that's kind of scary. Certainly US stock market on a global basis versus commodities versus gold versus that,

but that headline's key. The key thing to remember about why has it been have the trend in most corporations offshoring things like towards China, everything is for profits and earnings. Poof, those are gonna be gone. And they're way over expecting, not gone, but they'll be pulling back. So that's the key thing to remember is

maybe the stock market can go up in the environment. So I'm gonna make some calls here. So first of all, we end the month this year. So far in the month, Bitcoin's up about 2%, I'm sorry, in the year. S&P 500 total returns about 2.4% and TLT is almost 3%. To me, those are trends that, as long as you have that little stock market go down 10%, TLT is going to drop really 30%. It's so overdue. So the key thing is also what's the best performing, one of the best performing this year

is gold's up almost 13%. And the key the key thing that'll I think it's kicking in is gold I make call gold ETF outflows for the last four years in a row we'll switch to inflows this year just getting started they're really kicking in I think people are seeing that yeah okay make American great again it's kind of how much greater is gonna get we have to get through discombobulation first so I'll make another call I think crude all made a peak this year around 80 think it's going to 60 you see that and, what's the key thing about a ceiling in all energy? It's our new administration. They want energy prices lower, which means a floor in bond markets. So I think we have more of a federal,

of a government put in the bond market now than the stock market. Doge is not good for stocks, and tariffs are not good for stocks. So that's one call. I think Crudel's more likely to head to 60 copper On valentine's day made a high of four dollars and 84 cents a pound very similar last year's high around 520 I think that's peaked for a year maybe heading down the four or lower natural gas is still bumping up in their form And we've had an extremely cold winter and only getting to four dollars I mean that's a probably against the trump administration We want lower energy costs and they can help get that by permitting things. And then you look at the agriculture. We mentioned food and energy.

Corn is up around 5%, and it's the longest I've ever seen. Speculators, open interest in futures, what drives the market are the longest ever. We've never seen futures this high, and speculators are net longs are 20% of that. So what I see in commodities is you need bullish fuel, but normal is they're stuck in ranges

and typically they go down. Really quickly, Larry, I know that you're a huge bond bull. They're your favorites. I think everybody should know that. Okay, guys, so I'm trying to start a fight with sarcasm, but what Mike just said there obviously, basically TLT outperforming, you know, big corner S&P obviously, no, it's depending on the timeframe.

But I know you can't agree that that's where to where. Well, no, no, I think Mike is right. And Mike is smarter and closer to the day to day, month to month, week to week movements in these markets. And, you know, if we get a big back off in the stock market, could could a bid come into the bond market? Absolutely. I totally accept that. You know, but but, you know, longer term, am I a bond bull? No way. Longer term, I just wrote a book about how, in my view, to keep this whole damn thing going, they've got to continue printing money. And as we all know, that's very negative for bonds.

But shorter term, big stock downturn, people looking for a safe harbor, sure, it could happen. Interestingly though, the safe harbor to date has been gold and Bitcoin. I mean, gold and Bitcoin have outperformed bonds massively since 2020. I mean, Bitcoin's up 2000% since 2020 in bond terms and gold's up 200% since 2020 in bond terms. And those are the two markers that I use to suggest that we really are in a sovereign debt crisis. Now, as I said in last week's program, Doge is gonna try to help that, and I applaud the help.

I applaud the notion of getting the waste out of government. But I also kind of say, all the people who think Trump is gonna solve all the problems quickly and that Doge can do what they say they're gonna do in terms of balancing the budget, in my view, they're living in fantasy land. 80% of the budget is Social Security, Medicare, interest, which you really,

unless it drop rates, you can't solve, and what's the fourth defense? And so maybe they can take something out of that. So Doge will take maybe three, $400 billion out of the budget, but we're running at a $2.4 trillion deficit run rate up from one eight last year. I mean, the first two months, first two calendar months or fiscal months of this year, the deficit grew 64% year over year in fiscal 25 versus fiscal

24. I mean, that stat just amazes me. I mean, you know, Washington is really out of control or was out of control and Doge is trying to control it. But I think the, you know, I think the trains kind of left the station. And so so so I'm with Mike I I don't dispute the shorter term he could be dead-ass right but I know what you know I'm all I make investments in one two and five-year time frames so I'm pretty comfortable being a bond bear over those longer time frames I'd be curious to see what Mike thinks if he agrees really quickly I think Larry it's reasonable to support transparency and finding where the government is wasting tax per payer dollars and believe that does a noble effort,

but also understand that there's just not enough money for them to find that's going to solve any of the major problems. I think those are two reasonable positions to have at the same time. I think it's definitely going to help. It's going to slow down the train. As Lynn says, nothing stops the train. Yeah. Lynn Alden has been spot on on this. I mean, the fact of budget situation is there are a few cross currents here. Cross current number one is entitlements are the boogeyman. And that's why it is so important to actually find out if Elon is full of shit or right. And honestly, I don't know which in terms of fraud in social security,

Medicaid roles, Medicare roles, et cetera. If he's right that there's a lot of fraud there and we actually can do something with entitlements, then we all may be under rest of any what Doge can do. I think that most people don't believe that that's a lot of fraud there and we actually can do something with entitlements, then we all may be under rest or any what Doge can do. I think that most people don't believe that that's real. I think that in defense, I think he's gonna find quite a bit, but you know, 20, 30%, you know, you're right. They haven't passed an audit ever.

The Department of Defense can only account for 35% of their budget, so yeah, I would imagine he'll find something. I believe that there's going to be significant savings. I think we'll get back down to where we were probably four or five years ago pre-pandemic. I don't think that without major structural changes, i.e. Congress deciding that they want to actually do their jobs

as opposed to continuing to spend to provide. Congresspeople believe their job is to campaign for the next session of Congress. And what's the single best way to do that is to give money to your constituents by pork things that you insert into the spending bills. Until you fix that, you don't get anywhere.

But they're going to make a lot of changes. But the one place where I dispute Doge being bad for the stock market is, I think Doge is not uniformly bad for the stock market. I think it will be bad for the largest companies in the stock market, which have been the single things driving the S&P. But small companies are going to find things to be different. If you're a big company and you're outshoring and you own the regulators and you've been setting up regulation for the last five years in your five years, probably 30 years in your favor, now we have an administration that says, oh wait a minute, we don't want to have these very complex, you know, regulations. It means that companies that don't have five, ten, fifteen, twenty million dollar compliance budgets can now compete. And so I think you're gonna find starting probably around the back half of this year,

significant outperformance of what will be the newly reconstituted Russell as of, you know, because Russell reconstitutes themselves every June. I think you'll find a small benefiting over large trend will establish itself. But it's, don't, do not, anyone listening. I'm not saying this is happening now. And in fact, the Russell fell more on Friday than the rest of the market. But I do think that this this trend toward regulation as a way of establishing competitive modes is going to go away. And oh, by the way, for crypto, that's going to

matter a lot for issuers who actually are creating value as opposed to extracting rent. And we can talk about that as well. That's a totally different topic. Did you guys see the Luke Groman tweet where he retweeted somebody who said that maybe they don't have the keys to the crypto that's the Bitcoin that's owned by the government? I never. Wow. Shady news organization and went viral and I saw a lot of people retweeting it so I could not verify that personally.

Yeah, I don't want to spoof. But nothing was, I mean, this is along the lines of there's no gold in Fort Knox, right? Well, let's actually talk about both of those stories. I want to hear Larry's opinion on the Fort Knox, but I have an opinion on the other. How could it be that everybody who was staring at the wallets owned by the US Marshals in December and in October? We're talking about large movements of coins from those wallets No, it is inside Coinbase and to now they don't have have it just the two are completely irreconcilable I don't know who leading report was but this is where I saw it

43,000 likes as you can see every Bitcoiner jumped right on the train to tweet that. I mean, I thought my first thought was it's a public blockchain. You can't have those two stories. The market gets knocked down because Biden is going to rush to sell his Bitcoin. And here's the forensic proof on the public blockchain and then a story oh Biden lost the keys the two things just not yeah no I agree those two thoughts can't be in your mind at the same time that's there's a lot of there's a lot of noise on the web we'll have to save it's not here's an

interesting question I personally think that I don't see how they would even know because you could have spray-p gold plated lead bars in there and they would have absolutely or tungsten, okay, whatever. But you would have kind of spray painted gold, whatever. And they wouldn't know whether it's real or not real. But let's just game theory it out. Let's say some of the gold is missing. I think that's highly unlikely what happens.

And let's say the most likely scenario, okay, great, US still has everything we said we're going to do. All is well. What happens? I mean, to me, the latter is far, far more likely, whether or not it's really true or not is independently irrelevant. But the fact that you'll get an all clear seems the most likely scenario to me. What about you? Well, it's interesting that the cent came out and said it's all there. My sense is he got read in on US national security

and what he had to say. They do audit that gold. No, they don't. Correct? No, they don't. They don't. They haven't audited it since 1953. So there was something called the London Gold Pool

that operated from the early 60s until 68 when it blew up. And that was an effort to keep the price at $35, which of course Nixon abandoned because the pool blew up. And it's very possible that we were using some of that gold to keep the pool in place because the US Fed was a party to it and the Treasury were a party to that gold pool. I don't know. Is the gold there? Isn't it there? I mean, I'm sure'm sure look there is gold in Fort Knox there's probably no doubt about that Mnuchin went down there with his wife and took pictures of him in front of gold bars you know so so there are gold bars there for sure are they all yeah right are they all there you know it's unclear and probably more importantly has it been rehypothecated you know what's that what is the exchange stabilization fund done in terms of selling paper gold in the marketplace?

So, and that would involve an audit of the Fed's exchange stabilization fund. Of course, you know, the odds of that happening are kind of zero. I mean, I think it's great when Musk says, oh yeah, we're going to send Ron Pauling to audit the Fed. Well, good luck. I mean, the Fed is going to push back so hard on that. The Fed's controlled by Congress. Until you get a congressional act, you're not going to touch the Fed is going to push back so hard on that and feds controlled by Congress until you get a congressional act You're not going to touch the Fed. So You know, I don't know. I mean Ron Paul told me told me personally He doesn't believe the gold's there if you think of all the bad things that the government has done over the years

I mean, you know as an example, you know, the Kennedy assassination story doesn't really hold together Doesn't it seem possible that somewhere along the line, we needed some money and we sold, you know, we rated that gold. It seems possible to me. Did it happen? I don't know. Did Rand Paul tell you that? It was Ron, but not Rand.

Did Rand Paul tell you that the physical gold isn't there or that they've actually sold? He told me it was his belief that it has been diminished over the years, that various administrations raided it. Let's just play out the game theory. What happens if 25% of the gold in Fort Knox is not there? And that comes out publicly. What does that mean to the price of gold? I think it goes rather higher. It does, but here's the thing about gold gold and this is why Bitcoin is so superior. I mean you know anyone could say they have an amount of gold but it's very hard to verify. Do you have a tungsten plated bar?

You know can we see the bars? Can we audit the bars? I mean you know China's gone the other way. I mean they claim they have a couple thousand tons and yet they have so many imports from Switzerland and London that it's almost obvious to any of us who are gold analysts that they probably have 12,000 tons or more, maybe 15 or 20. So I mean, gold's one of these opaque neutral reserve assets that's hard to see and hard to test and hard to verify, kind of unlike the Bitcoin blockchain, which is why Bitcoin

is a better chance of being the reserve currency in the longer run. So, so let me ask you the game theory piece and I'm sure Mike's going to jump in on this is if she actually has 10,000 tons more gold than he says he does, I think he does. What are

the odds that in his conversations with with President Trump that he doesn't say, you know, Donald, you know, one of these days that little, you know, this little fact could become public and this might not be really good for your fiscal stability here. You know, we probably should be working together. Kind of like, you know, I think it's clearly a negotiating chip that they have.

And the problem is that the yuan and their currency and their society and their system is no better than ours. In fact, it's probably more corrupt than ours. So, you know, back in the one with gold is not really a solution necessarily either until they get a better political system. So look, I think the bottom line is that the world universally everywhere is losing faith in fiat currency. That's the big picture trend, right? That governments have been shown, I mean, what did Satoshi say? There are lots of examples of abuse of the trust of not printing money. And so since nobody can really trust anybody else in this sound money game, and since the gold is hard to verify,

I know who has what, the Bitcoin ledger, which is very, very friable is actually quite a step forward in terms of solving the problem. So there's gold, silver, platinum and platinum. There's only four precious metals and there's 12 million crypto currency. So yes, I'm a former bull on Bitcoin. I am bearish. I think Bitcoin is more likely to go to 50 than 150. I think Ethereum is right to drop below 2,000.

And there's a massive simple reason. We've all seen it before in history. Humans created these highly speculated digital assets. And now we're doing like Fantasia. I forget what the German offer was. We're just creating way too many of it. And the key thing is, there's just an excess of supply and speculation.

So I just keep attracting this Bitcoin to gold ratio. Now we're down at 32 ounces of gold for Bitcoin. Why doesn't it go to 20? There's not a big reason why it shouldn't. And I think we're gonna get a little bit of realization that a space with unlimited supply, unlimited competition is not good for prices, particularly when you have massive hubris and speculative excesses, and depending on in US government to make it go up. So I'm tilting over to gold and long bonds, partly because one

thing is, first of all, we're talking about something before we're talking about is a very low probability hypothetical thing is a mess. As a trader, yeah, you might talk about it, but it's just not worth it from a pure position standpoint. Look at gold versus the long bond, the treasury bond. I go back 30 years and the Bloomberg 20 plus long bond index. Gold is most expensive versus long bonds ever compared to where it was in 2000 when the stock market peaked. And this is where I think we are right now. I think we're very similar to where we were almost exactly 25 years ago. We do have the earnings in the equities. We're much more I think we are right now. I think we're very similar to where we were almost exactly 25 years ago. We do have the earnings in the equities.

We're much more expensive when we are in terms of GDP in the rest of the world, but we do have massive speculation and unlimited supply in cryptos and everybody's bullish. Not everybody, some rational people. The insiders who got in early are probably smart enough to sell out with the ETFs and so far they have. So to me, this macro is everything is dependent, bottom line on this US stock market staying lofty, which might do that, might stay up. But I just point out, give us a little 10% correction, and that's a massive trading environment. We're already seeing, I just point out in commodities, you're seeing pretty

severe deflation with the exception of some of the equator commodities, but crude oil at $70 a barrel, copper looks like it's peaked. This space is, there's a lot of hopium, but the reality of a very limited supply of precious metals and gold, an unlimited supply of cryptos is starting to show up in like the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto index. It never made a new high and it's ticking down. I need to respond to this.

Yeah, and that's true. You go first because I always talk to you. Yeah, next to you. OK, go first. You go first, because I always talk to you. You go first, Dave. OK, so first of all, the most important trend in the crypto market, which I started this show with, Mike, is a dawning realization that there are two markets. That to actually even talk about Bitcoin is the same as every other altcoin out there is dumb.

Now, I'm not Eden Yago, although I do agree with Scott, but he is a brilliant man and there are many things that I've learned from him. I've been on the stage with him. I've talked to him. He's a smart guy. I don't necessarily agree that the entire world will go, that all the rest of crypto will go to zero. In fact, I definitively don't agree with that, but I do think all the rest of crypto is going to suffer like the NASDAQ did in 2000 and 2001 and 2002. I do believe that that is in the cards. I do believe that we don't know what coins

are gonna be the ones that win, but the winners are gonna look more like Amazon than they're gonna look like Pets.com. But there's going to be, you said, oh, there's 11 million crypto, there's going to be 10,900, oh, there's 11 million crypto. There's going to be 10,000,000, 900 and 9,900, 900 cryptos that are going to look like pets.com. And the rest of them are the ones that are going to look like things

that are going to really do well. I've been beating the drum about meme coins for, you know, months now, ever since the election. And I said, listen, we've had four years where the only way you could create a token in the United States and not have the SEC bang on your door is to literally pass on no economic value, which meant either do mean coins or bullshit governance tokens. Now the smart governance tokens are talking about where there is actual economic value talking about changing that. You're talking about changing that or your framework to do it. That's why Ondo has done okay. Right. But most of these tokens are going to go to zero.

They just are. There's no value there. The ones that can actually pass on value are going to do well. That's going to be a very small percentage of them. I don't know which are the ones that are going to happen, but none of that impacts Bitcoin. If you look at the market, just look at Bitcoin's outperformance to non-stable coin altcoins.

Just look at it. You know, we at an all time high right now, Scott, we must be, I would say. I only have, I don't have the, I have Bitcoin dominance coincidentally pull up right now, but this is not without stable coins. It's obvious probably around 70% if you take stable coins out of it, you've got to imagine.

Yeah, it's very high and it's going higher. So this argument that other things are competing with it, the only community which claims to compete with Bitcoin is the XRP army. And I will take, and look, I own some XRP, okay? I understand the investment thesis. It's nothing close to my Bitcoin position, but it is- It's not hard money and digital gold that's there.

It's not. But I digital gold. That's there I'm telling you you got You got to stop with that one. You want to use that to talk about a theory of the galaxy, you know Bloomberg index Yes, I totally understand your point and there's there's logic there But but I really you know after Lawrence, you know talks I really do want to hear your opinion on the whole gold thing because you know You've been talking about gold have been a gold bowl for a long time here. I'd love to hear what you think about the whole Fort Knox and confidence and paper gold and what that means. Let me just address you covered it pretty well, but I just want to emphasize the point you made, Mike.

I mean, Mike, I think a mistake you're making in your head is you're conflating Bitcoin with all the other cryptos. And you're right, there are thousands of cryptos and they're bullshit. And there's all kinds of speculation and they don't have legitimate use cases. And they sadly really confuse the whole story a lot. They've heard a lot of people, people who lost money in Sandbank and Freed, all these guys. And I actually address all this in my book as well that sadly it's sent a lot of people away from the track of Understanding what Bitcoin really is?

Bitcoin is a technological invention Bitcoin is legitimate immutable digital scarcity So just go through that slowly. It's truly a number of units of digital units that are only 21 million of them ultimately will be produced. And, and therefore, in a sense, it really has become a digital form of gold, people are buying it, because it's the hardest money around right now, it's stock to flow ratio is higher than anything else. It's the flow ratio is higher than anything else. It's twice the ratio of gold and it'll get higher higher every four years. So so I think it's very important to separate that away

from all the crypto noise and nonsense. And you know, I mean, look, in a big downturn, everything's going to go down in the liquidity crunch. You know, everything's going to go down in March of 2020. Bitcoin got hit. They all got hit. Gold got hit. But by the way, when Powell turned on the printing press You know that Monday morning They all recovered very rapidly gold and Bitcoin kind of the fastest gold actually gold the fastest and Bitcoin followed. So The point is I just I think it's don't don't confuse the two they really were talking I mean Bitcoin is a completely different animal than crypto Unfortunately the market and most people don't understand that.

But that will become clear over time, in my opinion. I wanna go down and this podcast is the dumb one. I love being the dumb one. No, I wanna be the dumb one. You can't steal my job, you cannot steal my job. Those of us who worked in the trading pits and from big families, I love being the dumb one when it comes to market calls.

And what you just said, Larry, I love it. I said that 10 years ago, I loved it then, but now we have 12 million. You as humans are messing this one up. And I just wish you luck. I'm still bullish gold and I still think long bonds will be the next big trade, been completely wrong, but I gotta be considered really dumb

before I get it right. It's usually the way it works. And I wish you luck, but how many times in times in my career? I've said what you just said What's just not waste time with that? Oh divinable divinishing supply. I get it all that silly stuff, but now it's not it's sisters unlimited competition of this Firstborn crypto and I wonder what so Satoshi would think about 12 billion copycats now He probably really apparently he's that Dorsey by the way in case I think it was one assessment because I agree Sassman, I think it was Len Sassman. I agree with you, Mike.

I think it was Len Sassman, too. Let me just say really quickly, in context of the Trump token, I think that Trump put in a ceiling for all of those 11, 12 million cryptos that you talked about by launching the Trump token. I think that was sort of the beginning or the top of that trend for a very long time.

And I think Libra destroyed it almost entirely. Although it's good. It's like a little wave going on, yeah. It could take a long time to bleed out, but I mean, I don't know if you have seen, but meme coin launches were down from like 62,000 two weeks ago a day to I think sub 20,000 now. I think volume on,000 now I think

volume on pump dot fun down about 40% from pre Libra I'm not saying it's dead but I'm saying a lot of people finally had it with that nonsense Mike listen I'm not saying that it's gonna go anywhere the meme point casino will thrive but I do think that judging by what we've seen in the volumes and the outright grift, people are a little more skeptical and it's hard to argue that those are competing directly. So again, I agree with that. I just say there's certain things sometimes a bell rings at the peak. That was the bell. I think that it's look, the bell that rang, and I agree a bell rang,

the bell that rang is people are starting to learn that value and economics matter. And understand what that means. What that means is that you can't just be a rent extractor and take as much money. You still can extract rent, you can still play for it. There are a few bells that got rang in meme coins. Number one, the notion that you can have something

that you'll have value and you can call it value. The idea of building a community that doesn't pass on any of its value to its members is gonna get harder. I mean, the attention economy, and Rand talks about this all the time. When your attention is, I put my finger in this fire, it hurts, I say ow.

The second time, you don't put your finger in the fire. If you put your finger in the fire, and it's like, ooh, this feels great, right? You know, which is what was happening with meme coins on the way up. Then you keep doing more. Well, we've got a lot of people put their fingers in fire and that's not gonna help them.

And we have a complete change, a 180 in the world's largest regulatory market, which says, which is going to, it hasn't physically changed yet. People, the only thing that's changed is people know they probably won't get sued if they do something that isn't horrible. But the second bell that rang is,

there are a lot of people out there saying, wait a minute, these rules against market manipulation are probably a good thing. What is this sniping anyway? What's the difference between this and what we accuse HFT traders of doing back when Michael Lewis wrote Flash Boys, which by the way, by that point, was mostly bullshit? And there was still

60 minutes talking about it. It was a major news story. We have not invented a new grift here. We just have a faster technology to do it. That's exactly right. So, you know, speaking of someone who ran a high frequency trading firm at the time of Flash Boys, I can tell you that the most likely scenario is going to be that and that if you're a defy market your code has to be open-source and people have to understand what's going on and Publish what the grift is so people can know it and if you receive by market You're not going to allow market makers have special access anymore That is literally what's coming people and if you don't see that, then your heads are in the freaking sand.

So the difference here is that it wasn't presidents that were tweeting them the second that they launched. You know, it's not very clear. It's not clear at all. Whatever. My thing, they just wanted to create it. I don't I think they were ignorant of What people were doing on the back of it and it's extremely clear that me lay was ignorant Oh, he's on the question there. And by the way, if you want to know when the real top comes It's when Kanye West launches lost this week. We're not gonna talk about that because my brain just can't But the meta point here matters the meta point there are two meta points meta point Bitcoin different than the rest of crypto and the medical the and losing activity and some of which is external. Where- I wouldn't make the argument, Dave,

I don't think we're gonna see a serious purge of bullshit. I just think that most of it will fall completely flat because I think we're actually gonna see on a percentage basis a lot more bullshit because of great news like this. I'll show you. SEC ends investigation into Robinhood, right? We haven't even talked about the fact

that they dropped the investigation against Coinbase. They dropped the investigation against OpenSea. We now have an environment which is much better where it's been deregulated and people can innovate and we can build things in the United States and entrepreneurs will be led free. We also know that that means that scammers are going to go absolute wild and the casinos are going to are going to go nuts and I'm not saying that's a bad thing this should be the environment people should be able to do what they want to do but like I don't think we get less bullshit what I can hope is that we get less attention on the bullshit and it comes back to utility.

So one key thing remember about places like Robinhood and Coinbase and certainly what you said Dave is let's remember what this space is. It's the best casino on the planet for being the clicker button and trade. Remember what it's wonderful trading. Those of us who came from the day trading environment and trading pits and just remember it's wonderful for that. People should do it and continue to trade and have fun doing it but probably better off selling rallies and when we not lop off zeros and most of most of these cryptos, Bitcoin will suffer a lot.

And I think that's just getting started. It's going to continue to diverge, just like Amazon did. And when the big crunch happened down to the peak, the bottom in 2002, it dropped like 90%. Now that's picking a point in time. I get that. But this is things only happen a few times in history and in a lifetime I'm saying to me this whole market looks to me exactly like it did 25 years ago

And those of us were considered dumb then for wrench recommending 30 year long by I'm sorry actually zeroes back then I remember I was at a trading desk and I was told that a few times but it just emboldened his review like yes I know you pretty much made a lot of money I just wish you luck, but sometimes you got to just come out and point out that there's value. Where's the value? Yeah, I was around in March of 2000. And it has the same feel to me. I mean, it has the exact same feel.

The speculation is just absolutely out of control. And it is not going to end well for many, many, many people. And there's no doubt if all that liquidity goes away and all that paper wealth and fake wealth isn't there you know some people they're gonna have to sell the Bitcoin they have just to you know to sell gold too right always sell what you have to and not look at it. You know everything will go down it's just that in five years you know and particularly after the big print occurs which we know mathematically kind of has to occur you know then everything will go back up again.

For five years, a long time, if you were dumb 25 years ago, that was the year after I graduated college, stupidity of my entire life. So Larry, you made the point here. And you have explained what's happened for three months. And what seems to be hitting a crescendo soon, which is the washing machine of crypto is exactly what you just said. The people who are diversified in crypto or who speculating crypto have been selling Bitcoin to people who look more like the three of us. the three of us then look like the original Bitcoiners who take the Bitcoin either stick it in cold wallets or have it in their ETF in their 401k and are leaving it sitting there. So you've seen the great washing machine from weak hands to strong hands where the weak hands are the crypto bros who, oh crap, I will, I, you know, 10 X leverage Solana bought

it at 250. Damn, I just lost all my money I need to sell some my Bitcoin collateral just got got flushed. Right. I don't think those guys get Bitcoin. Then it's getting sold to ETF holders and boomers and pools of money sovereign funds and that's. And by the way guys that's why when I recommend Bitcoin to people and to my clients and to others,

I say, you know, folks, let's study the history of this asset class. This asset class has had three or four drawdowns that have been 70%. So, you know, whatever you buy in Bitcoin today, you have to be ready, you have to understand it. In a four year timeframe or five year timeframe, you'll be fine, but you have to be prepared

for that drawdown and you're not gonna get blown out because the way you get hurt in Bitcoin Is you buy a peak and then the drawdown comes you think you're wrong and you sell it. Okay. Here's a question. Laura Larry MicroStrategy, excuse me strategy has acquired 2356 Bitcoin for 1.99 Billion dollars, so he just spent another two billion. Is he prepared for a 70% drawdown? What's he doing to do?

He's borrowing money to buy a highly speculative digital asset. History proves, I just learned this in a trading pitch. You always learn, oh, everybody wanna be a trader and you've learned that one out of 10 do okay. You just don't hear the stories about those who affect, get the Ds, the death and divorce. It's just good luck.

If the amount that he's borrowing relative to total enterprise value is very light, it's like 10% or less. And a lot of it, the cost of it is close to zero on an interest rate basis because he's selling converts. So I don't think he's at great risk of having to sell anything to repay those loans. And even if there was a time when he was underwater on his average basis when it was down to 15, and he had some loans that were secured and he was able to turn those out into unsecured. And so I think he's executing a strategy that's rather brilliant actually. He's borrowing in the shitty currency and he's buying the sound currency.

And you know. To your point, that's a brilliant strategy as long as your downside is protected if there's a 70% draw down. Well, that's right. And I'm assuming it is. I think if a 70% drop, he would be fine. I mean, his stock price would come down.

Obviously the stock price just, I mean, really it's a holding company. It's just a holding company for Bitcoin. And the reason it trades. If the stock price would come down, obviously. The stock price just, I mean, really it's a holding company. It's just a holding company for Bitcoin. And the reason it trades- If the stock price comes down, you just have a lot more problem raising money to buy more. Well, that's right. Then it becomes more difficult to sell new stock

and to sell converts. But the point is that he's not ever at risk of going BK because the amount of debt he's got is so small relative to the total asset value that he could sell 10% of the assets and be totally out of debt. But could it come down to trade at book value? Sure it could. I mean, trade's kind of a two times book right now.

That's a result of the fact that he's got kind of a, the volatility in the asset provides him with a low cost source of capital. That volatility might not always be there. And if that goes away, then he'll have to stop, he'll stop growing, you know, and so be it. Mike, how do we square a new inflationary trend in Japan and now fear again of another carry trade sort of explosion? We show that inflation in Japan is 4%,

which could put pressure on risk assets. We've had the Japan conversation over and over again. How does that square with what's happening in China being deflationary and then what's happening in Europe? We've got hikes in some places and cuts in other places. We are turning Japanese. Let's see, we're tilting towards recession in Germany

and UK. They have to cut rates, but only one bank in the middle, ECB is doing it. Japan's getting some inflation. It took three decades. I traded JGBs in the 90s, early 90s. I remember I worked nights to do that in New York. To me, this is what's happening with CGPs right now in China by seeing this before, severe deflationary forces.

What they did do, the US cut them off from just outright exporting to US, made and build here. They still allow them to have a massive surplus with the US, but that's what's happening in China. China's just 10 times the size. This is the key thing I want to point out. Yeah, we're getting a little rebond in Japan, but their GDP at $4 trillion is the same it was 30 years ago. China's GDP is doing the same thing, except it's worse. It's from much higher levels. And then only that they enabled the war in their neighbor's backyard. They pissed off the world's most significant demand pull force in the US and Trump's coming down hard. So I see what Larry mentioned as far as you choose the example of debt to GDP and pumping your system liquidity.

Look what happened to JGBs. They got to near like 1% or so. Look what's happened in CGBs. We have a higher debt to GDP, major significant in China than like 300% by some measures, because all local debt is all national. It's only one person. There is no automatic check in that country. You want corruption? It's just one human being making all decisions. We know how that works out. So I'm pointing out this is a global Deflationary force which is the lessons of all history. I'd Lurtz Chancellor wrote about in his book the price of time It always happens. It's happened in Japan. It's happening in China Significantly, it's just starting to happen in Europe. They made mistake of you know Having that war in the background and just a matter of time to get to us That's why I pointed us bond market

I'll end with this the average of the top five bond yields in the world, including India and China, Japan and Germany, is about 120 base points below the US. That's the bond market rally I've been looking for. I've been wrong for two years, but I was able to say bullish Bitcoin for a while. Now to me, everything's tilting towards there's only one asset I think is going to go up, and that's treasury bonds, because it's the cheapest on the planet and historically versus gold. But Japan's good to be roped in. Just remember, it took 30 years to get there.

That's where China is now. So in your opinion, Japan is the outlier. Oh, they're coming out. They're finally coming out of it, but they still have to export. And what's happening with Japan is they still have a focus on internal combustion engines and they're getting crushed by China. BYD, what's happening in Germany? Just the technology is moving beyond them. So to me, this is the part of the severe deflationary forces that Japan pushed a little bit on. Now China's kicking in. I just hear from, I was at this mining and money conference last

week. So Larry, you get a lot of gold bugs there. But the key thing I hear out of that is the deflation coming out of China with their renewable vehicles. That's what's part of what's crushing Japan. At least they're getting a little inflation in the meantime. But think about their auto exporters. They have to defend. They're still focused on internal combustion and markets moving away from these vehicles. Yeah.

I just will continue to say something. internal combustion and markets moving away from these vehicles. Yeah, yeah. I just will continue to say something. I mean, I know probably you say this in your book multiple times, to be my guess. When you use the word deflation, I always talk about this. There's a difference in consumers, consumer inflation and asset inflation. You know, if you're printing money constantly and the entire G20 is running at this massive yearly deficit with this huge debt backlog and debt to GDP that's over 100 on a global basis,

to talk about deflation without considering what's happening to the denominator, which is that fiat money, I think is misguided. Now, if you're talking about deflation in the sense of relative from one place to another, right, I mean, Chinese cars are kicking the crap. The only reason we don't see it in America is we don't let them hear. You know, my son, Ian, and CoinRoutes, who's expanding in Dubai, we see that. And so you see the Chinese cars and they go, Oh my God, these things are great. Really well made, much, much cheaper. We don't see it here because we don't have it. The Japanese carmakers actually have a serious problem. Mike, you are 100% right, and they are cheaper. And so, yes, there are deflationary forces driven by technology in consumer goods,

where technology can impact that. But what it can't do is change the fact that the denominator, i.e. the supply of fiat money, is continuing to increase. So based on that denominator, something has to give. And that really is the essence of the Bitcoin argument for sound money. And oh, by the way, it's the same argument for gold, but you know, which is why gold is continuing to move higher. Eventually, the selling from crypto people will be overwhelmed by the people who believe that Bitcoin is a better version of gold. And that's when the next big rally in Bitcoin happens. Yeah, I also just think that most honestly, I think we have such a bifurcated market. better version of gold. And that's when the next big rally in Bitcoin happens.

I also just think that most honestly, I think we have such a bifurcated market. I know, and this goes back to the argument that we always have about how many millions of Bitcoin competitors there are. I've done surveys on X. I know it's an echo chamber, but I think that these people don't own Bitcoin. Like when you talk about this person who got liquidated on a Solana trade or the people trading memes, I literally don't think they,

these are not the people who came in through Bitcoin and are speculating, these are people who came in through the meme coin casino, came in through NFTs, came in through Doge and never bought Bitcoin ever and are most of them are not being driven there. I think it's a totally separate market. Yeah, I don't know. I'm not close enough to that whole marketplace to know.

But I'm sure you have an opinion about the denominator being the fiat currency side. Oh, absolutely. Yeah, and I'm with you on that. I mean, it's, look, they, you know, I wrote a book about it. They can't stop printing. Math just dictates that they will continue to print. That sometimes they print more. Sometimes they print less less I Mean, it's interesting to me one of the big macro things that happened last week was the cent said thank you Thanks, Scott for the plug. Hi the book guys. It's on Amazon the big Macro things percent said last week is you know that maybe you know it would I think he had a conversation with Jay Powell and and he indicated that you know, it would be helpful if you know, he wants to turn out more of the debt if

the Fed stopped reducing their balance sheet and selling into the market and competing with the new debt that's going to get sold. To me, that's a clue that very soon quantitative tightening is about to stop, which makes sense because the reverse repo has been drawn down to a very small level. They've got a real problem here. I mean, I think this has got to come to head in the next six to 12 months. But that's the cap on why TLT. I mean, look, I believe, I've been saying this, I've been pounding the drum on, James will tell you this, that the Senate and Trump

care more about bringing down, you know, and having that rally that Mike wants in TLT. I just don't think that the amount that they have to refight is they can get an explosive rally. I do think, however, that those who are selling it and shorting it, and the expectation we're going to see long rates go between five and six or seven percent are going to be poor. And so, you know, I think that there'll be a happy place and that happy place is anywhere where we have close to a flat yield curve where he can turn out the debt. Correct. But I think that the need to turn out the debt more or less caps the upside to the TLT trade to where the short end of the curve is.

And so you're not going to see, you know, short rates at 4.2 and the long bond at 3. That isn't going to happen because they're engineering it. Now, I don't want to use the word yield curve control, but honestly, because that's backwards. It's not that they're trying to control it, it's that they have to, they want to turn out that debt. That's what they want to do. And they need to, honestly, for a lot of very, very important reasons.

And arguably these tariffs are a club to do international yield curve control. You know, hey China, stop selling our debt or maybe buy more debt or we're gonna put tariffs on your goods, right? I mean Don't be surprised people don't they got a lot of lovers they can pull and I suspect they're pulling them behind the scenes I mean you probably are closer to it than I but I

None of that would surprise me. The point is is that I generally agree with Mike on the notion of technology driven deflation I certainly agree with Mike on the notion of technology-driven deflation. I certainly agree with Mike about the recessionary forces, but I don't believe recessionary forces are what triggers inflation and deflation. I never have. I've been arguing from a monitor's perspective at a Keynesian school. I went to Northwestern and looked longingly at the Chicago economics department and agreed with them and actually got into arguments with my professors at Northwestern about it. That will surprise anyone on this call. You put them wrong, Dave.

It is, well, yeah. I mean, you've been very successful. But we're in a situation where when the government wants something and they have the tools to make it happen, expect it to happen. And they have pre-existing trends in their favor That's why I say anybody who's bears like you said you're supposed to be selling energy and rallies in buying bonds and dips Right. I mean to the extent that you're a trader and if you're a long term I would say you know, there are better things to be in and that's where I'm with Larry so what you know, it's sort of like that charting the course, but

things to be in and that's where I'm with Larry. So it was sort of like that charting the course, but people really need to understand that there's a supply demand dynamic going on in Bitcoin. And a fact is that it is, we are being given an opportunity because of what's happening. And, you know, we look just the largest hack in the history in crypto.

Yeah, we didn't even talk about it, but yeah. And, you know, a $ just the largest hack in history in crypto. We didn't even talk about it, but yeah. And, you know, a one point four billion dollar hack, which the exchange, because they're so damn profitable, we help. Biden's paid a four billion dollar fine. It didn't blink. You know, by the had to pay a billion and a half dollars, you know, their own profit to restore the eat to make their customers whole. But, you know, hey, they did. And, you know, hopefully they'll And hopefully they'll learn from their mistakes,

et cetera, et cetera. The people who are out there, and there are people this morning and on the weekend and whatever last night saying, oh my God, this is gonna be another FTX. I gotta get ahead of it. They're all gonna buy back in at higher prices, right? Yeah, I mean, that's over six billion in outflows

from I think 16 billion to16 billion to $10 billion on buy of it in 24 hours. So I'll say the prerequisite for anybody in crypto is to buy back at higher prices based on facts of the last couple years of trends is the US stock market has to be higher. That to me is a problem. It's the elephant in the room for everything now. It's just so expensive on most measures. Got to go up. It's okay if it goes up, but now. It's just so expensive on most measures got to go up

It's okay if it goes up, but what if it just has normal back up and fill? That's what the cryptos are way overdo to see the normality of when you just don't create unprecedented wealth every day Thank you very much, I appreciate that You know the I wrote it to try and explain to the average person why they're getting screwed by inflation. And then that's the bad news. And then the second half of the book is the good news, how to deal with it. So it's written at a very basic level and I hope it helps people. My purpose behind the book was to try and spread the word about inflation. And I actually have a policy response in there where I call for ending the Federal Reserve, which I think will make our world a lot better place.

You know, as a final story, as we wrap, Caitlin Long and I interviewed RFK at, I think it was at Nashville, at Bitcoin Miami. And I was meeting with the team about the interview and kept meeting with Kennedy about it. And we almost had him committing to say that it would be a policy position of his. This is when he was still running to end the Fed. But then he kind of at the last second said, that's probably how my uncle died.

And maybe I want to make it through this election. So we'll just stop short of saying that the Fed is a corrupt organization needs to be looked into. But. It was not interesting. Yeah. It was a pretty big thing. I think it grounds well.

I mean, the system is so broken, so many people are hurting. I think, you know, people read this book and they continue to see they're hurting. And this inflation problem doesn't get solved. And I think what's gonna ultimately happen is it's gonna, the Fed's gonna end itself. I mean, it just, it's gonna become obvious. Right?

So I see that way. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Larry, always I think James will be back next week. People think he's just gone forever. He's not. Yeah, no, I'm not. Yeah, I can't do this every week. Jay, James will be back. But thank you very much, guys. Buy the book. Follow Dave, Mike and Larry now that he got his X account back and we'll see you guys next Monday, of course Thanks all, bye bye Bye guys