The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Short Squeeze Or New Bull Market? BTC vs ALTs | Crypto Town Hall With Sidney Powell, Joshua Frank, Vinny Lingham, Dave Weisberger, Gareth Soloway & Others

Episode Date: June 21, 2023

Crypto Town Hall is a new daily Twitter Spaces hosted by Scott Melker, Ran Neuner & Mario Nawfal. Every day we discuss the latest news in the crypto and bring the biggest names in the crypto space to share their opinions. ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

I have to, it's a new Mario now. I've got the new profile photo, so I need to act different. I need to be more professional, I need to have music. And why is there a profile photo of Imran Khan? As soon as we announce our Imran Khan space, let me get Scott up. As soon as we announce our Imran Khan space, my followers from Pakistan just blew up. So I'm grateful for everyone from Pakistan. Didn't expect that. Yeah, I can see, look at the guy, gentleman. H Butterfly 33 sending me love hearts.

What's up, Mickey? You're making an enemy of David Sachs, man. I retweeted it and you ruined my relationship with Sachs. What are you doing, man? All right, Scott, how are you?

I'm good, man. How are you doing today? Good, man. Good. I actually read the agenda today. So I don't feel as unprepared. Even though it's not much today. So it's one of the few days where there's not actually read the agenda today so i'm i'm i don't feel as unprepared even though it's not much today so it's one of the few days where there's not much on the agenda but i read a lot yeah there's a lot to talk about i think it's just not necessarily new to today but

i think as each day passes with all of these sort of news cycles we're absorbing a lot more and there's definitely a lot to to go over yeah um and then okay can you invite oh there's joshua frank i just invited him i'm just sending out all the invites um but in the meantime just to talk shit for the beginning because we don't have music because i haven't prepared that yet um did you see the the tweet that we're getting imran khan i don't think me and you spoke about it yet yeah it's insane that's fucking mental it's gonna be bigger than the nolan musk. Yeah, I'm trying to get Elon. So I'll ask him again tomorrow, today maybe. Hopefully he'll join.

That'll be epic. Because it's like a perfect example of citizen journalism. But we're worried he's going to get arrested today. There's a lot of rumors about arrest pending today. So hopefully, because I got, what's his name? Me and Randall meant to chat too. Thanks to Randall meant to interview Tate, Andrew Tate. And then a few days before we had an interview with him,

he gets arrested. And now if Imran Khan gets arrested before he comes on our show, the rumors will begin. Nobody's ever going to accept our invites again, ever. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Like I invite Trump, he'd be like, bro, no way. No way. I'm being indicted. Once I accept your invite i'm gonna get arrested and i ran i've sent you a co-host invite

thank you you're welcome um all right i think i've sent out all the calls and advice so we're we're good to go we'll give it a bit of time for the audience to join mario you think you're gonna get every presidential candidate at some point i I mean... I don't know. Biden won't. Yeah, RFK. We did RFK's announcement of running for president. Sorry, I shouldn't have asked if you were going to do any living

presidential candidates, not zombies. Okay. Well, number one, with you saying things like this, maybe I won't. So, give us some water. water come on let's go and number two i probably won't get gensler either um but but um yeah we're trying we're working on it like grand by the way you guys have incredible an incredible network like we thought we've got a pretty good network and then when we we started working together it's like we can literally reach anyone in the world because we've got such different networks um like i don't know how the hell

scott is the master scott i don't know how scott gets the access to him i i seriously what's your what's your magic scott tell us uh i i don't know i'm nice to people i i literally don't know well obviously'm nice to people. I literally don't know. Well, obviously I have an amazing producer, which, uh, helps tremendously. And I think you just get momentum, you know, uh, you get, uh, one guy and then the other guy sees that that guy is there. But honestly, I think just, uh, general networking and, uh, long history of things. Okay. Okay. Scott, I've got another question for you, but Danish, I see in the audience, if you have five, what I want to do, Danish, if you have to finish up here, get get him up i don't know if you'll accept

but what we want to do now is we want to start doing like a quick so scott you do a quick crypto update in the finance space and then dan and then danish will come on here do a quick macro update in this space um just so we can cross pollinate plus it's also cool now danish has a habit of coming in the audience just ignoring our request to come up he does that sometimes but i want to start doing that from tomorrow of danish if you have time you could do it throughout the space as well but scott i want to ask you again while waiting for the audience to join how do you do it without just bullshitting around it saying yeah my team i love my team they're incredible genuinely well to be honest to be honest i i mean as a life policy my entire life i'm not afraid to ask for what I want from any person that I want it from.

And I think that that's generally been it. You know, talk to a girl, go talk to the girl. Talk to a celebrity, go talk to the celebrity. You know, I did it in my music career, and I think it works here. If you can't shoot your shot, you have no chance. How'd you meet your wife? She talked to me. I was DJing at a club in New York City, actually.

And we had a mutual friend who was a photographer. And she approached me and we started talking. And actually, then she left. And we reconnected like six months later through Facebook, of all places, because it did the people you know. And she reached back out to me on Facebook. That's exactly how it happened. Well, congratulations. How did we meet?

I think who introduced us? Have you met Scott's wife? Have you met Scott's wife? I haven't even met Scott in person because I don't travel and he doesn't come to Dubai. So we've never actually met in person, which is ridiculous. I would say that Scott is completely out of his league. By like 100 decks. I would say that Scott is completely out of his league, bro. If I were to be that... By like 100 decks.

Yo, oh, by the way, Ran, Ran, if you... So Robert Wolf is coming to South Africa December, and I might come with him. If I come, you got to host me. And I'm meeting you first. We are here, bro. We are here. We're not going anywhere. But I'll be meeting Fred before you. Just, I love you here but i'll be meeting fred i'll be meeting fred

before you just uh i love you but i'll be meeting fred first i'm coming you should come it's the best it really is the best place to be in december and i i say this i i having traveled all around the world in december is looking for the best holiday to places like florianopolis brazil um to mexico to you name it, Argentina, you name it. I went all over the world and I found that the best place in December was actually Cape Town. It really was.

Yeah, and just Danish joined up. I've brought up Umbrella as well. I'll get you guys to meet him quickly. Fred is the lock on Ryan anyway. Fred is the best. Fred never comes up. Fred is Ryan's business partner for everyone. I've been pushing him to come up.

He's been rejecting, so I've just sent him an invite. But look, you guys don't join here so we talk shit, and you don't care much about us. You just want an update on the market, what's going on. So we're going to kick it off with Danish. Danish does the finance space in the morning with Scott, and he covers macro stories. Danish, one of the best hosts i know give us an update

well you know five five minute update or longer if there's more updates really quickly well how i have to say that uh the it seems like the crypto updates are not going to be finance updates since all the financial institutions own all of the crypto so it's starting to become the same space. I have to say. Yikes. Yikes. Ha ha. Funny, not funny. Like you all have been working

for the past few years to make crypto retail and then Gensler nukes all the crypto bros and gives it to the Wall Street bros. I have to say, I'm not saying that Wall Street is winning, but it's kind of working out a little right now.

I just had to say that. I just had to say that. I'm not trying to start a rivalry. I'm just saying the truth. No, but when you say, so Dan, when you say Wall Street is winning, but that doesn't mean crypto is not winning as well. I think for crypto to win,

it does need Wall Street's adoption, whether we like it or not. Maybe, but like, I mean, you guys had your own exchanges right like i mean we we know about binance and coinbase and others now i know coinbase is powering one of the big uh exchanges that's coming up from wall street and maybe it might be a win-win but but let's to try to try to behave now like uh crypto essentially we're not picking winners and losers that crypto is really meeting up to its promise. Crypto is just going to become another

financial instrument for the fractional financial system. I'm pretty convinced that's what's going to end up happening. You guys can disagree with that. Short term? Hold on, short term or long term? 100% long term. It's essentially going to become a part of the existing financial system, and that's what's going to happen.

I agree. I agree with Danish. I agree with him. I think that it's just going to be integrated. I think the lines's going to happen i agree i agree with danish i agree with him i think that it's just going to be integrated i think the the lines are going to become so blurred that it's just going to be it's like the internet you know who cares what it's built on and who cares how it works all financial instruments are going to be traded on some kind of blockchain it's it's a fact it's just whether it's going to happen in 10 years or 20 and this concept of like decentralization and ownership and all of this other stuff that people were promising for the past few years,

unfortunately, it's just going to get financialized and institutionalized and essentially will become a part of the existing fractional system. That's just what's going to happen. I disagree. I think that the bulk of it will be exactly what you guys said, but that will actually push plenty of people

into DeFi and decentralized, just maybe less people in the United States. But I think that we're undervaluing or under discussing the amount of people who are unbanked and underbanked, which was the entire ethos of this in the first place, who will continue to use these products as they evolve, as their bank, as their transfers, as their payment method, as their wallet. That may not happen in the United States where we need it, but it's certainly going to happen with stable coins all over the world. So listen, I think they're two very separate narratives. I think we're always taking this United States focused approach to viewing this because that's where all the news is, as if the rest of the world doesn't exist where they actually need these things.

I guess. But I wanted to give a point of note to Mario. Yeah, before you do the macro thing, Danish, first, can you come with a better mood next time not sitting here shitting on us when you're the guest of honor? But as Danish shits on us, let me just

give an update for the audience. Number one, I want you to tell me in the comments, it's the bottom right corner, if you agree with Danish or not. And look, Danish, you have a point. When Web 1.0 came out, it was meant to be all about decentralization, and it did nothing but centralize our world further. So the whole concept of decentralization, while I believe in it, it is an experiment. I think it will succeed. I think now we've got the technology through blockchain for it to succeed um but it will be a process and they may be even more centralization before decentralizes but as a species we've always

opted for centralization and convenience but we'll see and hopefully i'm wrong and i'm betting on decentralization first first i want donish to give his update but then i want to go to sid specifically and dave who are actually building these things because i think they will prove that what I'm saying is correct. But Danish, let's get that macro update first. Yeah, before he does, let me just give a quick update for the audience. So in the bottom right corner, tell us if you agree with Danish or if you agree with Scott in terms of whether decentralization will work or not. That's number one.

Number two, tell me if you like my profile photo or I made a mistake moving away from the punk. That's a big debate. It's happening right now. So comments, bottom right corner. And number three, if you're an investor and have portfolio companies, there's the pinned tweets above as usual. You can email us if you want your project to come on the show. We'll get a shout out.

We'll work with our incubator. So just go on the tweets above. You can either email us through there or DM or comment. But preferable is email because Ryan will kill me. I mean, probably now is a great time to talk about the fact that we've got a sponsor. We do sell sponsorships and advertising on the show. There's a tweet.

And we've actually got a sponsor that's joined us, which we'll talk about, Matt Led on the show today. Yeah, so we'll talk about them. For now, what you need to know is that there is a tweet the the name of the sponsor is called planet and they've partnered up with i know who it is but i can't mention the name until they reveal it i'll say this fran let me let me say this about the name and i'll continue to talk about them just for the name ryan mentioned the name we had a fight today because i didn't believe it but obviously they proved it to me

so just to let you know that it is a pretty legit name and it took us we had a whole debate like holy shit is that true and we had evidence so that's it is a pretty impressive name um yeah sorry don't check it out it's a pin tweet the sponsor is called planet um they are doing something amazing taking care of the planet like we we do vet our sponsors you know we really don't want to be involved with anyone that we don't think is real. And they are really doing something amazing for the planet. And they're doing it with someone who is known as the goat.

As you can see, the meme that they've got is all about the goat. You can try and work it out. It will probably amount to the next two to three days who the goat is. And when it happens, I think it will all come together for you to know exactly who the planet is. But when the goat when it happens i think it all comes together for you to know exactly who planet is but in the meantime check it out um i think you'll be very very very impressed yeah it's on it's on there's a tweet on rand's profile so go to his

profile i've also pinned it above and just to give you a hint about the goat it's not me so just it makes it a bit easier for everyone to guess the goat is not not me. It's obviously Michael Jordan. Danish, Danish. Let's go through the update. So it was really interesting. You guys were talking about the plant. So the number one thing that happened today is a Kentucky congressman

is now introducing a bill today to ban funds from using ESG. And there's been this whole movement, anti-ESG movement, and say that these fiduciaries should focus only on profits. Now, as a reminder, this has happened before and was actually vetoed as part of another bill by Biden. But this is noting a shift in bipartisan perception. And by the way, that last bill had three Democrats that voted for it.

There's a high likelihood that more Democrats are going to vote for this. And so there's this anti-ESG movement that is, and we had a pretty deep discussion on our spaces at 8 o'clock Eastern around this. And a bunch of really big names came in and talked about why it's good why it's bad why it's irrelevant but it was very very interesting to go through that number two the so that ESG movement thing it keep to stay tuned because there are some people that believe that this movement towards ESG investing is actually causing a lot of the troubles that we're having with supply chain

in America. And there's a huge movement towards that. And Danish, Danish, just in 30 seconds, what is ESG investing? Yeah, so it's about environmental, it's about sustainability, and it's about governance. So what they're talking about is, you know, things that are supporting maybe climate related activities, and trying to be good for the climate, they get a higher score. If you're focused on sustainability and other measures, you know, local sustainability, other measures of sustainability, they get a higher score. And then governance wise, if you have, you know, more diversity on your board, more diversity in your leadership, you get a higher score. So it's the scoring system that allows people to be able to tell individual retail or ultra high net worth or institutional

investors, hey, by the way, you're making an impact. And here's the companies that we're going to. If you invest in this fund, we can we can do this. And what's what's interesting is there's been such a movement towards this that ultimately it's become the main driver. And one really interesting tidbit about this, most ESG funds have higher fees. So the actual Wall Street brokers and people that are making and the hedge funds that are running these ESG funds are actually making more money doing ESG, you know, pound for pound than compared to just doing profitability only. And if you're thinking about retirement funds, this place where they're starting is ERISA, which is the retirement funds. And they wanted to change the actual laws so that retirement funds

can't focus on ESG and should only focus on the pensions that they provided that they talked about for the retired retirees and any any beyond esg because we're going a bit too deep just general market update how the markets look and i think we'll move to crypto very quickly yeah so the market is 29 i'm sorry go ahead right we need We need to move to crypto because the market's at 29.5 and Bitcoin is ripping. Go ahead. We'll move to crypto. There's a lot to talk about. Yeah, go ahead, Ryan. Go ahead.

Ryan, anyone? Yeah, guys, who's giving us an update on crypto? Yeah, I'll give you a quick update quickly. So you've got Bitcoin now at 29.5, Ethereum at 18.45, Bitcoin dominance 51.29. So it is very much still a Bitcoin rally. Very, very, very interesting what is going on here. Initially, everybody said this was a short squeeze. Then Keyang Ju, who owns CryptoQuant and does a lot of on-chain research, said,

actually, Holtman, this is actually not a short squeeze at all. This is actually driven by spot short squeeze at all this is actually driven by spot buying and started there was a heavy spot buying which started yesterday specifically that's why happened on coinbase and specifically uh a lot of u.s centric spot buying now why do i say that that's interesting is because if you think about where the war on crypto was declared it was pretty much in the in the u.s and if you think about where all these institutions are actually making the moves it's also in in the u.s and so it feels like now there's a whole lot of u.s related FOMO to get back into bitcoin i'm not saying crypto yet although it is starting to go to to trickle down

into the into the into the crypto market. And now that spot buying has actually started to cause a whole lot of shorts getting liquidated. Only now, only in the last couple of hours, have the shorts started to actually get liquidated. Hey, Ryan, I want to add to that just really quickly. Oh, sorry. You can go ahead, Vinny. Hey, Ryan. So before I jump in, do you want to just tell everyone what you and I disagreed with on your show last year about Bitcoin dominance?

Yes, yes, Vinny's article. Vinny said that Bitcoin dominance will go through the roof. And I said it won't. And Vinny was right again. About 50% and Ryan, exact words were that'll never happen. But what was the reason you said it back then, Vinny? What was the reason you said it back then? Is that exactly what happened with the sec now well no

that was that was partial like the the belief after last year after the whole collapse that happened 2021 is that look um there's a lot of scams out there there's a lot of coins that are pumping dumps there's a lot of things which are just they're bad holdings and distribution levels like too many you know too many whales holding coins looking to dump and you know when these things that when you see the carnage in the market the safe haven is bitcoin i mean we know this people in crypto go to bitcoin and what's happening now is exactly that this is playing out to a different degree holding securities or deemed security by the sec will make compliance teams cringe right so if you're if you're an investment fund or bank or whatever, and banks in the US don't really hold crypto,

but if you wanted like a registered investment sort of advisor or fund, you're going to be having a second thought about anything that they've called out on that list recently as securities. And you're going to be dumping that stuff and you're going to dumping that stuff and you're gonna be like look i still want crypto exposure um you know bitcoin is basically market beta for

crypto let's just take the market risk and not worry about you know outperforming it right now and bitcoin looks pretty cheap at these levels and so even personally i've been buying more bitcoin you know substantial bitcoin um and and you know lightning my way to an alt because the the the risk is that these so first of all demand is drying up for alts um there's no new alts coming on the market which kind of helps a bit i think as people are consolidating their investments but um you know people are selling out of all the altcoins and especially the ones that haven't moved in a while there's no signs of life And you're going to see this decompression. It's like a seesaw effect, right?

When Bitcoin tanks like it did, 5,000, 20% nanny from its high, people can be like, oh, this looks cheap. Let's go and sell some other also or let's take cash on the sidelines and buy Bitcoin and ride it back up. Bitcoin is still raised. Vinny, question.

Before you go into it, is this not what happens every single cycle where we think that... I mean, I remind you, me and you actually had this exact same discussion in the last cycle. And I remember that when everybody else moved in, there was the altcoin reckoning, so to speak.

And that was the flush out of all the old narratives, all the Eos's and all those other uh old narrative coins and everybody went into bitcoin and eth was i think trading at 80 bucks at the time or 70 bucks or something like that and then eth emerged eth emerged eth emerged out of the cycle and all the other ones actually emerged out of the cycle so isn't this the same pattern just repeating itself? And what was the dominance back then compared to now as well, Vinny?

I can't remember. Dominance went up to 70. Dominance went up to 70. Guy, you have to remember, though, that back then, dominance didn't include stable coins because there wasn't $120 billion worth of stable coins in the market. It also didn't include the fact that we print 700

meme coins a day. Yeah, but Dominus right now is 55% excluding meme coins. Sorry, excluding stable coins, sorry. So, I mean, let's still pull that aside for just a second. People

trying to buy into crypto are not buying anything which is being deemed as security they are buying bitcoin and they're probably buying ethereum as well because the cftc and ccc can fight it out or whether it's a commodity or not but i think it's ethereum is reasonably safe that's it so you've got money flowing into those top two coins let's say bitcoin is probably taking 75 80 of the new money in if you're probably taking 20% at this point. And you've got the Bitcoin halving coming up, which has a psychological effect. The inflationary effect is minor this year, but it does take selling pressure out of

the market. So I think we're consolidating the 25 to 30K range for a while now. And we may not break 31,000 in this sort of movement in the range. It might go back down to $25K. But with people sort of lining up waiting for it to break, when it breaks over $31K, it's going to go on another run to the next level of resistance. Not sure where that is. But money is not flowing into, at least in the U.S.,

money is just not flowing into alt. And you can speak to the trading desks. There's just no one really buying alt. So you've got the DJs trading it, but that's about it. And they can't. They're being deemed securities here. But Ran, just really quick, I want to go back to your

original point, not only about the fact that this is being spot-driven, but something that is also worth discussing. Obviously, GBTC, because of the discount and because it still is the asset that's available to people who want to put this in their brokerage account, went up 17%, 18% while Bitcoin went up 5% or 6%. MicroStrategy, Riot, Marathon, everything Bitcoin adjacent that people can get their hands on in the United States, especially

institutions who can't buy spot Bitcoin yet or have a limit on it, has been absolutely pumping out of control the last 36 hours. So this isn't even just, if you want more evidence that this is spot driven and not short liquidations, everything Bitcoin adjacent is getting absolutely massively bought up. Yeah. I mean, I did my whole show today. A large part of my show today was actually on this GBTC discount because we've been telling our community to buy it since the GBTC discount was at 48%. And what we said is at some point,

this discount has to close when we get close to ETF approval, which means that anyone who did that would have made the 13% close of the discount plus whatever the upside of Bitcoin is, which was always the thesis. And today our thesis is actually starting to get vindicated. Now, the question is, close of the discount plus whatever the upside of bitcoin which was always the thesis and today our thesis is actually starting to get vindicated um now the question is would i be buying it now

um no and i'll tell you why i just think that these narratives change week after week after week so this week's narrative is this blackrock etf and that's why the etf related bitcoin etf related uh shares in this case, are moving up. But I think that next week it'll be a different narrative. And then the GBTC discount will drop back again. So I think, to be honest, I think a lot of people have missed this trade. My feeling is, you know, maybe a little bit more upside, but the risk return now is not a great risk return. There's still a long road between where GBTC is today and it becoming an ETF.

Dave, you're giving a thumbs down. Love to hear it. Yeah. I mean, well, I agree with the last sentence that Mario said. I do think it's a long road for GBTC to become an ETF. That's probably true. Most likely it will require some arranged marriage as as we discussed last week. But I want to go back to what you were saying earlier, Scott, because I think it describes the rally pretty well. And look, we do our Monday shows, and you've been hearing me say this for months now. The fact is there are two use cases in the world of crypto. And this is why you could be a Bitcoin maxi when it comes to money, but understand that

there's technological innovation when it comes to DeFi, and there could very well be future use cases there. But the money use case is extremely important. What captures the imagination of the average trader, the average not trader, the average investor, the Uber driver who every single Uber driver who hears me say something about coin routes starts talking to me about Bitcoin. I mean, it's literally 100% of the time. It doesn't matter. Normal people, what is the narrative they hear? They hear digital gold, digital gold, digital gold. Now, what does digital gold mean? Digital gold means that Bitcoin takes over for the monetary part of gold. And we can debate for the monetary part of gold.

And we can debate what the monetary part of gold is. I generally look at it as about 75% of gold's market cap, and I'm happy to explain why if anyone cares. But at any event, we know that gold demonetized silver because silver really isn't monetary anymore. And that digital gold narrative would imply a Bitcoin price of 20 times the price that it's at today, 20 times. So Bitcoin is really still trading like an option on that adoption. I've said that before in the show, but I want to be clear what that means. What does it mean? It has nothing to do with decentralization. It has nothing to do with banking the unbanked from the US investor's perspective, but Scott is is 100% right. There's two narratives.

So at the same time, we have people using it for other reasons and understanding for currency hedges, et cetera. We have U.S. investors. And the BlackRock announcement means something. What does it mean? Right now, the average person, and I talked about this on your show on Monday, Scott, my brother, the financial advisor, told me point blank, he can't do anything with Bitcoin despite him having read that follows you, Scott, and understands he can't put customers into it because he has no method to do so. There's a wall of money out there that it's not a wall going to come crashing into Bitcoin, but literally that is excluded from investing in Bitcoin. They can invest in gold through GLD, IAU, et cetera. There is nothing to invest in Bitcoin that gives them that ability. An actual ETF would do that. And just to what

we're talking about, the 60-40 portfolio at replacing gold or augmenting gold one two percent maybe as much as five percent of people who are really aggressive but that's a double digit trillions of dollars and so the fact is is we've been talking about the macro with bitcoin for a while then he used the words accumulation phase i've been saying the same thing which is pretty much every cell every you know sell-off is met by patient buyers who are averaging down. Now, what happens when the script flips and there aren't panic sellers for those patient buyers to buy from? Well, they average up and they don't chase FOMO, but they average up. Now, what happens when there's more buyers because now all of a sudden there's more people can enter the market?

What happens? That is the bull case for Bitcoin, period. It has nothing to do with financialization. I don't understand why anybody in the Bitcoin community would hate that. Where the bear case is, is do people start making structured derivatives and shorting into it? And I mean, who knows? I mean, I've heard people speculate that JP Morgan wants to short Bitcoin. I frankly doubt it for lots of reasons. I think maybe when it hits 250,000, they'll be shorting the crap out of it to make a quick trade because they may be able to crash it down to 100,000. But at these levels, I don't think anybody large is interested in shorting

Bitcoin. So I don't think that's as big of a deal. There is an issue of financialization, but that's kind of the point here. Really quick, Dave. Sorry to interrupt you really quick. We do have a bit of breaking news here. The US House Committee to Vote on Crypto Stablecoin Legislation in July just came out that that is actually going to happen and we are going to see a vote on that. So I think that that's actually pretty huge considering we've been waiting. Now, I'll believe it when I see it, but considering we've been waiting for an actual vote on any of these, I believe there's over 20 bills that have been proposed

with relation to stable coins and crypto. Seems like we're going to start to actually get some answers from Congress in the next 30 days. Can I maybe link this to Powell's comments about stable coins quickly? Yeah, and at the same time, I'm digging into it right now,

obviously, in the news, but Jerome Powell said that it would be a mistake to leave Fed with a weak role on stable coins. And we see stable coins as a form of money. I'm digging through the video right now and looking for a tweet that we can pin. But, yeah, I mean, this is it's pretty crazy that that Powell in his comments on the Congress floor tomorrow will be the Senate floor, is talking about stable coins effectively in the last few minutes and that we're actually going to start to see a vote on these legislations surrounding them.

And if someone could... Go ahead, Ron. Probably worth mentioning around this bill that I think the current bill doesn't allow algorithmic stable coins or non-fully backed stable coins in the US. I think it has negative implications on things like DAI. I think it would also have negative implications on things like USDT, because I think the stable coins that would be allowed in the US

need to be regulated in the US. I remember there was something like that. I don't know if there's anybody who can maybe shed some more insight on what the implications will be. Has anyone looked into it? If no one's on stage and looked into it, I'll try to get a speaker that could comment on that. And that kind of links to the next question. I see Capcos,

you're sending a lot of emojis. If you could DM us if you want to comment on this particular question, DM us and tell us what qualifications you have. We'll bring you up if you don't mind, instead of all these emojis. But Ran, are you holding, do you hold any USDT? Yeah, I hold approximately 50% of my USD reserves in USDT and another 50% in USDC. Yeah, I mean, I was all in USDC

and then what happened with the usdc if that happened and then i went all into usdt and then there was the usdt replay and i was like fuck it screw this i'm going into but i'm going into 50 50 and that's just the way it's going to be because i know the narrative or a small narrative that was being discussed earlier is that btc is the safest bet if you want to hold in anything that's closest to being stable or a safe haven in crypto BTC is a better option than stable coins with the current lack of clarity what do you think about I mean look the majority of my money that is allocated to crypto is currently allocated into the market and the majority of that into bitcoin but um with that said,

we do keep some dry powder that we can invest in the case that there is a market dip. Now, if there's a market dip and Bitcoin goes, I don't know, for whatever reason, if there's DOJ charges against Binance or whatever else,

if that happens, you want to have some USD reserves. Now, if you do want to have some USD reserves, you don't want those exposed to crypto so that you can use them to buy the dip, so to speak. Well, then where do you keep them? And I think for me, the safer strategy is just a basket of USDC and USDT.

Vinny, I'd love to hear what your view is. I have a question for you, Ron. Where do you think the tens of billions of dollars worth of USDT holdings are being held? Where do I think that they're being held? They actually gave a breakdown. Mainly in T-Bills, basically. Short-data T-Bills, mainly.

Okay. Obviously, they have to have some cash as well. Yeah, they gave a breakdown the other day. I don't have the tweet in front of me. I think it was actually yesterday when they gave a breakdown of exactly where their reserves are. My biggest concern with USET

is that the US government has taken basically an angle on going on war with crypto, right? And I don't think it's far-fetched to believe that they're going to hunt down and find whoever the custodians of these bonds, these treasuries and cash

are, whether it's banks or whatever, and try to seize it. And they've tried to do this in the past already. So USDT, the token represents the sum total of all the cash and cash equivalent these guys are holding in various institutions and places.

And if the US government is able to track down where it is and freeze or seize these assets, the value of USDT plummets. And so, yeah, it hasn't happened yet, but we've also have a meeting in this sort of regulatory environment where they're getting very, very aggressive. So I wouldn't personally touch USDT right now. So where would you put your money? Would you put your money onto USDC? Yeah, I think USDC is the safest option at this point.

Yeah, look, I mean, we were in USDC and the reason why we exited a little bit of our USDC holdings was because we felt that USDC was too exposed to the United States. And the problem is, you know, with the US regulatory attack, you just don't know what their next move is going to be. Yeah, but the US government can't, they cannot really freeze all the USDT assets and

take it away. They could sooner do that than they could do a USDT because the assets are regulated. They could have done it a long time ago. They could have done it so they could have had a bank run under. By the way, that would massively screw coinbase yes but but they and they wouldn't want to but they haven't done it

so that tells you the fact that they haven't done it means that they they like from a just a pure regulatory perspective uh constitutional right perspective they can't really do that okay but usdt is unlicensed it's out the country it's uh they can argue it's that. Okay? But USDT is unlicensed, it's out of the country, they can argue it's aiding and abetting terrorism, they can use the Patriot Act to go after them, whatever. It's a little different, Ron.

I'm just cautioning you that I personally don't hold USDT and I just don't like the rest of it. Look, I agree with you. I agree with you, Vinny. And to be honest, I'm uncomfortable holding USDT rest. Look, I agree with you. I agree with you. I agree with you. I agree with you, Vinny. And to be honest, I'm uncomfortable holding USDT or USDC,

but you need to have, like we have a very small percentage of our crypto portfolio, which sits in what we call cash. And that is to capitalize on any opportunities should there be a marketer. That's where we keep what we call our dry powder. I mean, I don't see any other option of where to keep it.

I'm not going to keep it in DAI. I'm not going to keep it in, because if USDC goes down, DAI is going down see any other option of where to keep it. I'm not going to keep it in dye. I'm not going to keep it in, because if USDC goes down, dye is going down with it. Where else do you keep it? USDC? I really think USDC is safe. Here's

my question. So obviously we just broke that news that we're going to get a vote on stable coins in the next month or so, but there's a consensus I'm seeing a lot of places. Barenberg major fund said today this was broken in CoinDesk. Stablecoins defy likely to be SEC's next target in US crypto crackdown. So if that's the case, if the SEC is going to come after stablecoins, but we also have Congress looking to legislate around them and somewhat at least protect some

of them, does that mean that stablecoins become the next sort of major battleground here between regulators and legislators for this market? In my opinion, the only stable coin that will stand up to scrutiny right now at scale is USDC. USDC is not going to stand up to scrutiny at all. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Let's just agree on one thing here. All of these USDT, USD back stablecoins are all securities.

We had this discussion on this space before. It's very simple. They're not backed by USD. They're not backed by USD equivalents. They're all backed by a basket of tables, bonds, and debt. No, but there's no expectation of a gain. That's not true.

Exactly. You're wrong. No, exactly wrong. You're both wrong. You're both wrong. You're both wrong. I'll tell you why you're both wrong. We had this discussion on the spaces last time.

There's two reasons why you're both wrong. The first thing is, if USDC deep pegs and I bought at $0.91 in the expectation that it's going back, that it's going to be $100. No, that's so false, dude. That has nothing to do with the actual asset. That has to do with traders trading it on an exchange. Yeah.

It's like in my Nike sneakers I paid $1,000 before it drops down to $800. Is it a security now? Jumping scene. Yeah, that wouldn't make the investment in a common enterprise type aspect of the Howey test. That's sort of pure secondary market trading.

It doesn't seem like it would stand up there. Yeah, but remember, folks, the Howey test is the only part of the definition of a security. All of these concerns about, is there an expectation of profit? Is there a group and everything? That's only a small subset of the overall definition of a security in the United States. The overall definition of a security is very broad. It includes all kinds of things, including debt, including stocks, equity, bonds, CDs,

and investment contracts. And then this thing called investment contract is defined. And then that was further clarified by this court decision called Howey, which sets up these prongs and everything. Most people focus on it and say, oh, if it meets Howey or doesn't meet Howey, that makes it a security or doesn't. But the definition is actually more broad than that. And it includes all kinds of instruments. You can look up the definition. It's extremely long and broad and courts have held up that it should be interpreted broadly. I'd also add, we had five lawyers over at our office yesterday. And one of the things that was mentioned is that the Howey test historically has only been used for primary issuance of assets. It hasn't been used for

secondary trading, right? So the idea that something started as a security and then became a non-security, right? And so if the argument is that, okay, if it de-pegs, I don't think that holds up to how, I mean, historically, at least how Howie's been used. And we've seen it argued actually in the library case that it's potentially, I mean, John Deaton, literally like American hero fighting for the little guy, making basically them say that the secondary sale there is probably not a security. They're fighting for the same exact thing in Ripple. And I don't think to Josh, to your point, people understand the implications. I was talking to James Murphy, meta lawman, and he said if these secondary sales are deemed securities, that's basically the that would be deemed retroactive as well. And think about all of the funds and VCs and everyone in the United States who has bought and sold these things, which would effectively be retroactively legal if all of the secondary sales were deemed securities.

So it's very unlikely they would be. yeah but so ryan just on your point regarding stables being securities you've made the assumption that there's a you know people would want to make a return if it de-pegs has have you spoken to other attorneys that share that same view i mean we've had multiple attorneys on on the spaces and on my show and they've made but they've made the same point that there's an expectation of a return. You can make that argument, legally make that argument, because it just seems... But what if it never de-pegs? That's ridiculous.

No offense, but that's ridiculous, because they're not meant to de-peg. That's something that's not... But even if there's any legal grounds to it, they could try to twist it in their advantage. For attorneys to make that point, that means it's even a valid discussion, which I surprised it is you're not investing in stable coins you're investing in a fund that is managed by a bunch of fund managers at tether and at usdc and they

sit there and they're saying investment but you're not expecting a return yeah and you're not expecting a return either you're using it as money you're not investing a return either. You're using it as money. You're not investing in it at all. They're investing, so potentially what they're doing on the back end, but yeah. Look, as I said, I'm not a lawyer. These are just opinions that I've got on the show and on the spaces. And to me, it sounds like they could easily be challenged as securities. I wouldn't be surprised. Let me ask you a question.

Why did the SEC go after BUSD and Paxos? To attack finance. And why did they not go after USDT, which is... But on what grounds? But hold on. On what grounds? On what grounds did they attack them? We don't know the grounds.

We just know that it was enough to scare Paxos and finance. But by the way... Right. Right. USDC was on its knees, literally, with the whole Silicon Valley bank debacle at 80 cents. They could have let them, they could have just let the whole thing collapse. They could have said, we're seizing USDC. That's not part of the recovery. We're not going to rescue it. You know, it's a... They can't, but how can they rescue Silicon Valley bank without rescuing? Yeah, exactly. How can you do... No, they could make students. They totally could.

But, Vini, if they consider it... Yeah, but there's also too obvious. If they call USDC a security, that's a better way of doing it. They're not in a rush. If they were, they would have taken action a long time ago. No, no, no, no. Guys, they could have easily said these stablecoins are, you know, securities that are facilitating money laundering and illicit trade and terrorist financing and we're freezing these funds.

They could have totally done that. No, but that wouldn't have been in context of the bank going down. They would have done it differently. And they can still do that today. And by the way, I had a discussion with a mutual friend of ours, but I'm not going to mention his name in case he doesn't want this discussion to be public. He called this altcoin rally, or this Bitcoin rally and this altcoin demise very early on in the game.

And he said to me, this is exactly what's going to happen. The SEC is going to come after all of these securities. And at the time, I thought, oh, come on, man, you're just becoming a Bitcoin man. Including stables? So he said, they will start off with these securities and inverted commas, and then they will go to stable coins. And I said, well, how the hell are they going to ban stable coins? And he says, look, they've got many, many tools in their arsenal. They've got many, many tools in their arsenal, including if an instrument is linked to the U.S. data, and that instrument is used for illicit activity or for funding terrorism or for whatever else,

it gives the U.S. a right to go after that instrument or that person or whatever else. And that's just one way that they could end these stable goods. But that's not as a security, though. That's a whole different argument now. Yeah, that's a different thing. That's what I've been saying. No, but I think your original point, I actually agree with you, Rand,

that it is a security. If you look at the definition, again, people are getting caught up on this, how are we saying that's only one, that's like one-thirtieth of the definition. If you look at the definition, you know, again, people are getting caught up on this. How are we saying that's only one? That's like one thirtieth of the definition. You know, if you look at the definition, I just looked it up here. It says a whole bunch of stuff. Security means any note stock, treasury stocks, your security, future base, swap, bond, venture, evidence of indebtedness, on and on and on.

Then you get down here. Certificate of deposit or group or index of securities. Treasury bills are securities. So if you have a group of treasury bills, that is definitely a security 100%. I will add to that. Hold on, but you're saying, but Bruce, are you saying that the Howey test

is 1 30th of the definition? The Howey test is not, the Howey test is only part of it. If you meet the Howey test, you're a security. If you do not, you could still be a security you know the idea like you you mentioned the thing about uh you know looking at the efforts of others for profits i'm assuming profit yeah if you're talking about how we that's relevant but but there's ways to be a security that you don't have to you don't have to meet those things

yeah i'm not a lawyer i'm not a lawyer but guys if you if you have a document, if you have a proxy, if you have a token that represents an investment, sorry, a holding, a holding in a fund that is actively managed, you cannot tell me that is not a security. I mean, it doesn't even have to be actively managed. Even, hold on, guys, guys, even if, I know we're not lawyers, but even if there's no expectation of a return something just Yeah Return is a Howie prong. That's a Howie prong Howie is not the whole thing. You can look up the whole definition I mean, it's really easy. Just you know definition for security in the United States. Are we I always Disagrees though. I mean if you look at the the March the March

finance the the March lawsuit that they brought against Binance, I'm going to read directly from the CFTC. Digital assets include virtual currencies that are digital representations, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Certain digital assets, including Bitcoin, ETH, Litecoin, and at least two fiat-backed stablecoins, Tether, USDT, and the Binance BUSD, as well as other virtual currencies, as alleged, herein are commodities as defined under Section 189 of the Act 7 U.S.C. So the CFTC... A commodity is a security. They did not mention USDT. They did not mention USDT.

No, no, but they did mention they did mention busd and usdt there a commodity isn't sorry just just to be clear a commodity is a security but in u.s law commodities have been carved out of securities laws but they are securities and you've heard gary game say that thing as well this is so confusing and look i want to to move it one step ahead, Sid. I'll let you answer, but also, if stables are considered securities, what does that mean for crypto? Go ahead, Sid. First, your thoughts. No, I was just going to say, I mean, conceptually, things like Tether and USDC are closest disney bucks or disney money right like if you think about the utility that we all get from using them it gives us the ability to trade you know to to to buy and sell stuff on chain without having to use fiat to do so so it's like an integral

part of the utility of any smart contract ecosystem and you know you you purchase it not with the intent of making any profit from it but with the intent of just using it for uh you know for buying other stuff so it is like i think if you look i know the howie test we've sort of gone past that but like looking at the reese test and family resemblance stuff it's just hard to say that anyone is purchasing this stuff with any expectation other than just using it to buy other things in the same way that you know we purchased stuff it's just hard to say that anyone is purchasing this stuff with any expectation other than just using it to buy other things in the same way that you know we purchase like disneyland tokens or things like that that give us purchasing power in a given ecosystem the idea that you have to expect profit to be a security is an incorrect assumption a lot of

people are making that assumption because they're familiar with Howey, but it's not the whole piece of it. It's only one little piece of it. That's the piece about investment contract. There's about 30, 40 terms in this definition of a security. A note, a stock, treasury stock, security, future-based swap, bond. Bruce, can you give us examples of securities that people don't expect to return from that exist today? Exactly what Rand is saying. Money market funds, anything that's not an investment contract. If something's not an investment contract, so if you go in front of a judge and the SEC says something's a security, the judge is going to look at this definition and say, what is the definition of a security? Does it meet the definition? And if it's something, I mean, you could have equity, for example, where you're not, well,

that's a bad example, equity where you weren't expecting profit or some other thing where you're not expecting profit. There's things that are designed to maintain level. There's things where you're actually designed to lose money because they're a hedge versus something else. You're shorting something. There's all kinds of different things that are securities. But the main one that I think is relevant to this is if it is a group or index of other

securities, always when you have a pool of other securities, including T-bills, that's a security 100% always. Because otherwise people could just put a bunch of securities in a thing and have a new vehicle and say, oh, this isn't a security. So if it holds T-bills like a fund, that's a security for sure. And money market funds are very similar to stable coins for those people who know TradFi. Every major firm, Fidelity, BlackRock, all these guys have their own money market funds and those just stay right in basically like a cash equivalent and sometimes have a return. Those are all securities. But the definition is what matters. Forget about Howey because you could just ignore

the Howey piece. Howey isn't part of the definition, by the way. Investment contract is part of the definition. And then a court case said Howey is how you define investment contract. But you could just delete that piece out. You could delete that piece from the definition. You still have all this. So Bruce, let me ask you another question and we need to get another space on this with with a bunch of attorneys guys because this is uh you know this is pretty surprising to me to say that something could be a security without an expectation of a return is something that i didn't know and something i've never heard mentioned but bruce and joshua my next question is if stables are considered securities, what happens to crypto?

Well, it would be bad. I mean, in the United States, I think, I mean, you know, a lot of these things are surviving outside the United States. The United States used to be the end-all be-all of the global economy and could kind of dictate things. And I think a lot of the people in power are living on the fumes of the past, and they think that they still have that kind of global power. But, you know, things like XRP and stuff like that, even if they're banned in the U.S., they still have worked elsewhere. So these large stables like Tether, I think, will still exist. But, you know, it's certainly a big problem. You know, and one of the big problems, by the way, when something is a security, whether it's Ethereum or a stable coin, in the United States, it severely limits how

people can use it. You know, it limits wallets, it limits application. You can't just custody it. Basically, no firm can work with it unless they're a registered broker dealer. So it's kind of the kiss of death in the United States, whether it's a stable or, you know, Ethereum or anything like that. If they're named securities, it significantly limits the, you know, we should be talking about that with things like Cardano too, because, you know, SEC is alleging Cardano is the security. That's, you know, very, very detrimental, at least in the U.S. You know, I think they'll be fine outside the U.S., but, you know, it does have a pretty significant impact

if something is named a security in the U.S. Yeah, I mean, Cardano, Sol mean, they said Cardano, Solana, they said Cardano, Solana, Coty, Matic. I mean, I think the message that they're saying is anything can be a security, or certainly any proof-of-stake token can be a security. I mean, they literally cannot use it, right? So if you have, for example, this Starbucks partnership with Polygon to use Polygon, if Polygon is a security, Starbucks would not be able to use Polygon, right?

It creates a huge problem. The same thing goes. The coin or the coin or the actual protocol, though, Josh? But you need the kind of both. I mean, you obviously have it for gas fees and stuff. Yeah, you need the coin. So you literally could not have any. And keep in mind that there are non-financial uses of blockchains, right? That just become totally, it's a huge problem for layer ones, but also it's a huge problem for stable coins because there are, you know, use cases of stable coins, which are, you know, obviously their financial nature because they're actually using stable coins, but there's no, you know, it might not even be a trade or an investment. You might just want to use stablecoin, I don't know, as an in-game currency to interact with something or anything else, right?

Which becomes completely impossible if they're named securities. All right, guys, let me, I want to ask, go back to discussing the markets. I don't know, we've got Gareth and Patrick here. Guys, can you, if you don't mind, can you give us an update on where you think the market is at now? And could we say that we've at least likely seen the bottom and we could see a reversal either ongoing now or in the near future? In the meantime, before you guys go... Sorry, just to be clear, Mario. Let's focus on Bitcoin, not all markets right now. Oh, man.

I think it's great that we got Gareth here because Gareth was on my show yesterday and on the show yesterday gareth said that if we broke above that 27 500 level or whatever it was then you would turn more bullish and if we broke through 30 000 then you then you're going into full bull mode bro and guys and guys before you respond scott said only do bitcoin um listen to scott but if you want to be nice to me as well just mention some alts as well at least eth and maybe soul and want to be nice to me as well just mention some alts as well at least eth and maybe soul and polygon would be nice to get an update i just didn't i just didn't want to dive in forex and stocks and uh you know gold oh yeah just i wanted i wanted bitcoin and maybe a bit of alts yeah oh perfect good thank you thanks guys being nice and before you sorry

vinnie go ahead yeah right now i was just saying i said the same thing. Once Bitcoin goes over 31K, basically, it's going to have a very big run until the next resistance level. I'm not sure where that's going to be exactly. Why 31K, Vinny? Because we've been range-bound in that range for a while now, right? So the bottom of the range is like 25,

the top of the range is like 30.5, and there's been a lot of sideways accumulation. And so the market's building up for a breakout through that. Now, do I think it's a 50-50 at this point? If it goes to 31, does it break above, or does it go back down and revert down to a higher low, maybe 26, maybe 27? Let Gareth have a shot here,

because Gareth's actually been super... Gareth, for me, is one of the most accurate chartists out there. I get him on my show quite often. He's called this rally very, very, very well. He told the whole community he's short of 30,000. Gareth, talk to me about what you see now, specifically after we had a show yesterday. Yeah, so like we said, per that show,

we did break through that 27,000 area, and that's led to this bigger pump where you get short covering, right? I mean, it was a bullish consolidation pattern down. We broke out above 27,000 and then the 30 to 31 is a huge level. So I'm bullish up to that level and then I'm a skeptic, right? So the way technical analysis works is that until proven, you remain a skeptic at supports, whether supports or resistance levels. So the reason why 30 to 31,000 is so, so key for Bitcoin is it was basically the mid cycle 2021 lows. So if you remember in early 2021, we ran to 65,000, we then dipped and we kept on hammering on 30,000 over and over again. And then we ran all the way to 69,000. So psychologically,

we're now at the underbelly of what was formerly support. It's now resistance. So that's the level that I'm watching for. Now, if we do break through 30,000, 31,000, and we hold above it, then I got to say that, yeah, I mean, I think at this point, the lows are in for the cycle at 15.7. A lot of people would argue that they're already in. I just remain a skeptic because again, I've seen rallies in bull markets, and I pointed this out, I think yesterday on your show, Rand, is that in 1929 to 1930, the markets fell 50%, and then we rallied back 50% before dropping 80%, right? So

we've had these type of big rallies, and you just have to let the markets kind of prove themselves before you jump on board. The only other thing that I would mention, and I know I was supposed to 100% keep it to Bitcoin, I will mention alt. I did take profits on a Solana trade. It ran into that $17 level. So I was long Solana. I'm still long Cardano as well as Matic looking for a little bit more upside. Why Gareth? Why? Especially with the recent news, I'm surprised to hear that. Yeah. So I bought them last week on the dip. There were some technical levels and just keep in mind for everyone listening, I'm a shorter term trader. So all I'm looking for is a little bit of a float up and then I'm grabbing my gains

off. For instance, on Solana, I bank 10% with members, right? So I'm not looking for mega moves. I'm not getting married to these things where I'm holding for a long period of time. It's much more of a shorter time frame trade based on oversold into technical support. And then also if Bitcoin is going up, the idea is that Bitcoin can lift all boats a little bit or rising tide lifts boats. So those were just a couple little tidbits there. So again, keep in mind, already out of Solana, already booked that, and then in the money on Cardano

and Matic, but looking for a little bit more here as we approach that 30,000 level on Bitcoin. Gareth, I just tweeted an ETH chart. Mario, i don't know if you can just go into my profile it's the last tweet on my profile um yeah and it looks like it looks to me like eath just broke out of a channel that it's been in for a long time i think we spoke about that channel yesterday on the show and i think yeah i i mean is i'm i'm very keen to hear from you if if that that that channel has been broken out of let me take a look here at east here um bear with me by the way while while waiting um i don't trade uh ran i don't know how you have the guts to trade scott are you a trader before we give the way back to gareth yeah i mean that's all i did for a good decade but now i don't as much because i have

no time because i'm talking to you idiots all day. We've saved you losing a lot of money, so you're welcome. Thank you, Mario. Thank you. Hold on. Which tweet do you want me to pin, Ryan? Hold on. I see it. It didn't actually tweet. I'm going to tweet it now quickly, but it shows the channel. I'll quickly tweet it for you guys now, and then you can pin it.

In the meantime, while Ryan is pinning this and Gareth is researching something just a good reminder for the audience to check the pin tweets um you have to scroll through them the last one the latest one is the sponsor which is planet which i know we'll talk about at the end again um so they're a sponsor of the show should definitely check them out they've got a pretty exciting announcement coming up and the other two are for any project that wants to come on the show as a sponsor or i'm trying to convince, we're going to do Shark Tank pitches as well if you want to join those pitches that we do

or you want to work with our incubator. So email us in the pinned tweets above. In the meantime, Gareth, Rad is tweeting his little prediction. He's tweeted it now. Let me just, while Rand's tweeting that, just let me point out one more thing is that one thing that I'm finding intriguing today is that today we are seeing a big sell-off in Nvidia, in Tesla, in some of these big cap tech. And we're seeing, it's almost like there's a rotation of capital.

And it does make me wonder if there was money that was hiding in things other than crypto and going into these tech stocks, which have made all-time highs ridiculously. And now you're seeing maybe some money flow back towards the crypto markets as people gain confidence in crypto, again, specifically Bitcoin and ETH. So, Gareth, just check the pinned tweet as well from Ryan, if we're seeing an ETH breakout. Would like to get your thoughts. It's tweeted by Ryan, so definitely take it with a grain of salt. Just a heads up. So, Ryan, your technical analysis is definitely getting much much better yes so so you are above that trend line so the key on that when i'm looking at that is to say okay

where does it close today right so intraday these levels can get pierced all day long it's where does it close at the end of the day if it it closes above, for me, I never chase this stuff, right? If you look at this, Ethereum's already up from $1,700 to $1,850 right now. As a technical trader, I'll never jump on board. But what I do do is I make a mental note and I say, okay, let me watch to see, does it make a bull flag and stay above this levels? If it does, bull flag signal consolidation or re-energizing the move. And then the next leg

I'll look to buy in. So you have a potential breakout here, but again, let's see where it closes today. But didn't you tell me that you always buy the breakout or the retest? Or was that Sheldon? One of you told me that you wait for the breakout, don't buy in the channel. If you're going to break out, you buy the breakout. Yeah, I don't buy in the channel if you're gonna break out you buy the breakout yeah i don't buy the breakouts i i i purpose purposely have lost way too much money thinking it's a breakout and then getting fooled so so i i instead i instead look for i say okay it's broken out and it's confirmed now i watch for the pattern to form afterwards which essentially think about this like you run a marathon that's breakout. You run that long of a marathon. You can't get up and just run another marathon right afterwards. You need to refuel your body. You need to rest your body. So when I look at charts, I look for

that sideways chop, which is the refueling process before the next leg up. And I'll buy that refueling process. Gareth, before we go to Patrick to get his thoughts on everything on the markets, everything you're saying excludes any black swan events. And in the horizon, there's so many black swan events, it's really difficult to use technical analysis. Yes. Yeah, no, it's very hard when you get these type of crazy moves, especially in crypto. Crypto is such an emotional asset, right? You know, the less institutional involvement, the more emotion because it's more retail investors. So people in crypto have to be ready for that, right? I mean, you have to allocate the proper amounts in a portfolio, knowing the volatility. So what I mean by this, Gareth, is this the announcement,

the SEC crackdown, what was the thing, the Senate hearing, Scott, is that what you were referring to? We saw the comments by the feds, by Powell. We've also got a lot of things happening in the background. We saw the ETF applications. There's so much shit that's going on. It's very difficult to use tech. So I was like, technical analysis plays a small role in what the markets are doing. Is that a fair statement? I don't know, Mario.

I will tell you, though, Mario, it was all in the chart. This time, it went right down to 25,000 area, which pretty much everybody was watching. And that got pushed there by the bad news. it went right down to 25,000 area, which pretty much everybody was watching. And that's the got pushed there by the bad news. And right at the perfect timing, the good news started to come in and that was the most predictable level for a bit. So you could make the argument. I love technical analysis,

but if I back here, so I used to look at people like Scott and think to myself, I'm going to be honest, Scott, like I used to think to myself, what a loser. Yeah. I still think that I agree. I still think that about myself. It's fine. Hold on. No be honest, Scott. I used to think to myself, what a loser. Yeah, I still think that.

I agree. I still think that about myself. It's fine. Hold on. No, no, no. They draw lines on charts, and they really think that the charts are going to come back their line. And you show, you take three chart lists, you show them the same chart, you'll get six

different opinions about where the price is going to go. And I'll always say this to you. I'll always say to you, if it goes up, then X. And if it goes down, then Y. Like they can never tell you, listen, it's going up now. They say if it goes up,

this is the level if it goes down. But the truth is that since I then started following people like Gareth and I did Gareth's course and I did Sheldon and Sheldon's course and I've been following Scott's stuff, man, you can't argue that there is something in this technical analysis. Can I make a counter argument? So studies have shown that trading in general, I don't know about technical analysis, but

there's a lot of studies that show that trading just in general doesn't work unless you have a whole team, you have algorithmic trading or you have behind the scenes information unless it's an inefficient market and crypto today is it still at least bitcoin is it still an inefficient market as it was before because altcoins are and there's a good argument to be made there but bitcoin is becoming especially when institutions coming in is becoming harder and harder and gareth i say this with all respect because obviously you're making a lot more money than me i don't even trade but it's just becoming harder and harder for technical analysis to work. And that will only become harder as institutions come in more and more.

Yes. So I would just counter that and say that I've actually found it to be more of an irrational market. Even the stock market's gotten more irrational because you've had more of these individuals ever since 2020 with COVID. People have just retail has just flooded in. And that's actually been dangerous for traders too, because it creates these kind of super spikes. We saw GameStop, AMC, we saw the crypto, all coins in 2021 and Bitcoin. And so you have to be actually very, very careful because things do get irrational very, very quickly on a trading basis. So I would just counter that my bread and butter is stocks and commodities, and I use technical analysis every day. And weirdly enough, it works. And I'll say this

last little bit here. The reason why technical analysis to me works on all asset classes that have volume is because you're not trading the asset. What you're doing is you're analyzing human psychology. Remember, every market is made up of millions of people and emotion doesn't change. 5,000 years ago, people were still fearful and greedy just like they are today. And that's really what you're trading when you're trading charts. Yeah, I kind of misspoke. Before going to Patrick, I misspoke. The more efficient markets become, the more likely technical analysis is going to work because then you've got enough data, you've got enough traders where herd mentality works.

So if anything, maybe technical analysis didn't work before because crypto was too inefficient but trading in general like the because i've had many discussions on this trading in general tends to work in inefficient markets because you've just got the opportunity to know information before others the competition is limited or you know have information that others don't have and whether that's right or wrong it's your problem now i'm a horrible trader even though i used to have a crypto punk i'm very you know very very traditional but let's get a quick update from patrick on the markets and in the meantime just for the audience let us know do you like those technical analysis updates i actually enjoy them um and i'm even though i'm talking against them i follow gareth's advice so i'll probably be buying into the market when we

break through 31k even though i'm a horrible trader. But Patrick, I would love to get your thoughts on the markets. Hi, guys. Yes, well, look, Gareth, I've had him on my show a couple of times. And a lot of what he says, it's true. It's like everybody. That's why I want to ask all you, the Bitcoin guys. Look, is the price going up in Bitcoin for you justifying your thesis? Oh, the price going up, my thesis is right.

And let's say Bitcoin goes to 5,000. Is that going to change your thesis about the utility of Bitcoin for like whatever you decide it is? Like I'm buying Bitcoin because it's the new money, whatever. That's something people have. It's confusing. I listened to the guys, the fundamentalists of Bitcoin has to go to the moon or it's the next best thing. And then after that, there's the traders of Bitcoin. So often it gets confusing. People think that thesis, the price has to go up to justify the thesis. But

at the end of the day, it all depends. What do you want to do? Do you want to be right on your thesis or you want to make money? So if you want to be right, you want to write a trend, right? Look, I nested some charts, but I guess they got removed from the nest so i put them in the tweet all right you can put them you can put yeah put them in a tree and just we'll pin it we can put it above this in one tweet it'll be good patrick okay good well i put them in the uh in the tweet in the twitter uh space tweet i don't know if somebody could grab them yeah i'll do i'll do it now for you patrick so look i don't want look i like Gareth on smaller timeframes

and I'm a big macro guy, you know? And this is what I tell often when I get into hiccups with the Bitcoin guys and I say, look, you got to be careful. Everybody says there's a halving cycle every four years.

Bitcoin, you know, it does its thing. But guys, you got to zoom out. We've been... The stock market has been there for a hundred years and you'll see their cycles. There's bull cycles in growth stocks. It goes up from 1980 all the way to 2000.

Then they hibernate for 10 years. And then after that, other asset classes take over, whatever, commodity, et cetera. So you've got to be really careful thinking that your shorter-term cycles, your halving cycles, will behave the same as those cycles go on because if a micro tidal wave, so the big tsunami wave of macro capital flows shifts, and because there's too much inflation, margins, they contract, PDE contraction, all that stuff, then you might not have the results that you've had previously in your cycles. But that said, I put a quarterly chart of Bitcoin quarterly, guys, reduce the maximum amount of noise. And on a small timeframes, yes, I know you guys are looking at 31K, which is going to be some good resistance, but the accordingly defined breakdown for Bitcoin was at 35K. So for me, I like to see the price

on a quarterly basis close above 35,000, either Q1, Q2, Q, Q, whatever, one of those Q4s. But look what happens after, guys. Once you've done that, you're above the wall. In the next year, there's probably going to be a retest of that breakout line from above. So while everybody's going to be buying above 35K, you got to be careful because after that, you could be going sideways for a year, two years. As a like chart trader, I want to wait until all that volatility moves away. I want, let that play out, get a higher low. And then once I get a beautiful breakout line and I'm probably, if ever I go back in Bitcoin,

it's probably going to be above 45,000 easy. I want to ride that crazy move. Remember you guys, that crazy move where all the lasers of ice start coming out when I think it was in 2020, when we broke out above 10,000 and we rocketed up to 65,000. That's what I want to play. Right now, it's too... Look, when you drop 70% from a peak and blow off top peak, there's damage, guys. You don't recuperate in a V v-shape you're gonna go up then it's gonna go down and once that settles then we're ready to uh to rock it upwards all right well i i don't know whether

to be bullish or bearish i i'm generally bullish because i just don't see any any more like i don't know what more blood could be in the waters uh they yeah let's see dave's trying to jump in go ahead dave and then right after And then right after this is, Scott, I really want to talk about the ETS that launched. That was meant to be the main point of discussion. We haven't even mentioned it yet, Scott. Yeah, those. Yeah, right.

Yeah, the things that matter, maybe more than charts and nice pictures that you like to do. Dave? I think it's really important to understand context of charts, right? You know, I think, look, I've studied, I've run stat arm desks for 15 years and pure charting doesn't work,

but what does work are people like Gareth who can put charts and what's going on in context of markets and correlation among assets, all sorts of things. Last year's price action was the result of forced selling. People who had, many people who had bought with conviction and put their place, put their Bitcoin on the wrong platforms and those, and Bitcoin as collateral had to get sold. And I use that word had to, because that matters. Every single one of them is now mentally short until they buy back in.

And it is really important to understand that context. So, you know, there's huge air pockets in the chart up to the all-time highs. Yes, of course, technical traders are going to trade around it. But remember something really, really important here. The amount of Bitcoin on exchange has been coming down. The amount of percentage of long-term holders has been going up basically for a year now pretty close you know pretty much after or that so that that context needs to be considered all right dave dave i'll just i'll just summarize before i go to vinnie i'll just summarize what he said technical analysis

does not work but i like gareth a lot to say that so you're welcome i'm joking i'm joking it's a tool like any other tool i agree i agree sorry i'll let you finish off and then before go to vinnie sorry dave no no i think i was finished i think the bottom line is is that you need to consider the context of where people sold i mean resistance works because people you know what happened but forced sellers is are different than non-forced sellers but you had to sell bitcoin because it was the only thing that created a lot of the i think i think the way i'd say it and then vina i've got a question for you just about edx before we go to the etfs scott wants to talk about the etfs i want to talk about edx i'll talk about edx but the thing i want to say is that there is a lot more important factors to

determine whether you should enter the market or not regulatory action that we're seeing now, scams, the list goes on. But then the question that I have, sorry, the point I have is that technical analysis comes in for timing after you make a decision based on other factors. Is that a fair statement? Yeah, it's a risk management tool, right? And so that's why I always laugh when people argue about their strategies or if they draw supply and demand, Ichimoku cloud, descending lines. It doesn't really matter. It's your way of managing risk. You can read tea leaves and piss on a unicorn if that gives you your interest.

As long as it gives you a definable area to set a stop loss and to take profit and to size your position, that's what it's used for. Scott, did you just say something tea leaves and piss on a unicorn draw on pv tea leaves yeah i mean you can use whatever strategy well i don't know what you guys do over there piss piss on unicorns man that's it's a state that's a comparison you've made but scott why so so we were talking me and you in the background and i'd like to get your thoughts on it we're talking in the background on edx and and you said, like, this has been covered already. I think we should focus on the new ETFs. But I made the statement that I just don't think it's given enough attention.

I think it's really, really big news that is underrated by the markets. Do you agree or disagree with that statement? I definitely agree with that statement. It's just that it's been news that's been percolating, I think, since last September and been talked about last November. It was something that was covered, and it's just the fact that it's effectively news that's been percolating, I think, since last September and been talked about last November. It was something that was covered. And it's just the fact that it's effectively starting to launch now. But I think it's huge because it's obviously Fidelity, Schwab and Citadel Securities. And this is really the first time you're hearing Citadel. We've heard Fidelity,

obviously, they've been mining since 2014 or 15. Schwab, we've heard the name Citadel is massive. When you put Citadel and BlackRock together in the same week of news, it's pretty astounding that you're talking about the Bitcoin space. What I find really interesting about the EDX markets is that A, they're having four assets available, which is Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash. I always laugh that Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash slide in because- They said that a lot. Effect effectively not deemed security. So they just go ahead and throw them in there as if anybody cares about Bitcoin Cash. And the fact that it's going to be non-custodial, I think that's the most interesting part, is that they're basically saying that it's a matching engine peer to peer from what I can read into. And they're not going to custody any coins and are not working with a third party custodian to do it so i don't know if anybody's looked deeper you've mentioned fidelity you can kind of use that to pivot to the rumors about fidelity acquiring grayscale is that am i right in saying that's the rumor that's been

circulating it is a rumor that's been circulating we had i think his name's andrew on the other day and he was the one who tweeted about it we can't really get much okay i can just tell you that i've spoken to four people at fidelity and i wouldn't wouldn't expect otherwise but they've all been very dismissive and sort of pissed off that rumor is going around to be quite honest but that could mean it's because but that'd be exactly exactly exactly exactly. Being pissed off is a good thing. Right, so I don't know necessarily how to read that. But listen, the bottom line is, Fidelity has been the most bullish institution in the crypto space, period,

if we're talking about large institutions. Like I said, they've been mining since the early years. They understand this space. They've been involved in almost any way, shape, or form. They allow their clients to buy and sell the assets. So that wouldn't be a surprise. But quietly, while we've been talking about what Fidelity is going to do, we saw WisdomTree file for an ETF, Invesco again, Bitwise refile. I mean, everyone's getting in line here, obviously, now that they see BlackRock.

The question is, do they know something that's up or is it just oh shit black rocks here we got to get in line for when these start to get approved and that that is a tougher question by the way bitcoin just hit thirty thousand dollars at least temporarily holy shit did it just hit thirty thousand dollars i don't even look at the markets i thought we're still back at like hitting 20 we just hit 29k or something maybe give us how much has it how much has it risen in the last 24 hours? And what are the alts looking like? Yeah, let me take a quick look, honestly, because I just happened to see it flash by on our...

What does that mean? Yeah, yeah, Gareth, what does that mean? Where's Gareth? And Patrick just dropped off. But Gareth, what does that mean? Bitcoin hit $30K. Are you more and more bullish? Is that a big thing?

You just mentioned $30K to $31K. Well, we just broke through 30k is that we barely just broke so I know it's too early but is that you know should we be celebrating should people in the comments be going yeah and putting these emojis of that stupid rocket going to the moon Gareth

don't leave me now Gareth is our rocket going to the moon Gareth Gareth our bags are gonna pump should I enter the market G now. Gareth, is our rocket going to the moon, Gareth? Gareth, our bags are going to pump. Should I enter the market, Gareth? Did Gareth just say buy all of the altcoins? Yeah, I think so. I think he said buy all the meme coins if Bitcoin goes across 30K.

If you want to correct that, Gareth, you've got to be quick and unmute. That's how I bait Scott. That's usually worse. He said something about Pepe. I'm not sure. Go ahead. Don't mention it. Scott is joking. We You said something about Pepe. I'm not sure. Go ahead. No, don't mention it. Scott is joking.

We all don't hold Pepe. Trust me, man. You don't want to mention a meme called his name or you'll get a lot of hate if it pumps. So none of us are on Pepe and Gareth did not mention Pepe. You're welcome, Scott. I'm covering your ass again. But Scott, give us a quick market update.

What's the market response the last 24 hours? And if Gareth doesn't jump in, we'll try to get Rand to give us his thoughts if that's massive news if we broke through 30K. But go ahead, Scott. I'm seeing Bitcoin now, 2098.76. But I'm just checking quickly, up about 12% in the last 24 hours, which is pretty major. And Ethereum now lagging pretty hard, 1848, up 7.35% in the same amount of time.

So obviously, all coins underperforming Bitcoin, which I think is largely expected. What about the rest of the alts? What about the rest of the alts? Axie, all the ones that are deemed a security by the SEC. Do you want to give us a cut there? I can't at this exact moment. If you give me one minute, I'll be able to pull that up. I just wasn't ready for it, man. Let me let me pull up going mark it is what it is let me let me get um

uh let me get uh sorry ryan if gareth is not here are you there look at all the technical guys suddenly freaking out suddenly they can't i'm suddenly glitching for them yeah well you're the other i'm here i'm here what was the question the way, you told everyone to buy Pepe while you were gone. Good job. No, no, you did not, everyone. You did not. Scott, stop it, man. Stop, bro. But Gareth, the recent... So did Bitcoin just break $30K or is that not true, Scott? It tapped it, depending on the exchange. All right, so if it... It happened at $29 29 before it broke through so gareth if we actually break 30k i

know you mentioned 30 to 31k what do you need to to start becoming more and more bullish like does it need to break it and stay there for a certain period of time how important is 30k not 31k and how long do you need to see it above 30k yeah so so the the high from the previous move up was 31k so you really want to see it get above 31k. And then you need to see a daily close there. And really what you want to see is even multiple days after it just staying there, it doesn't have to continue up. In fact, it would be better if it just goes sideways, that would create that bullish flag pattern that would then dictate that, that there's not a massive amount of sellers. So when a bull flag forms after a move, what's happening is that there are sellers right at that level because it is a level where it's had previous resistance, but there's an equal amount of buyers.

And that's the beautiful thing about it. When you can have a move up like Bitcoin has had and you have an equal amount of buyers still that are negating the sellers, that's a very, very bullish thing for the next wave of sellers to overpower those. Excuse me, the next wave of buyers to overpower those sellers and charge it up. And charge it up. Can you repeat again, where do you see Bitcoin? If we break 31k, close above 31k, assuming no black swan events, could we see the beginning of a new bull run? And how would the next two years look like? Again, assuming no, and we could kind of wrap the space on this final beautiful point that Gareth would give us on the markets. And before that, let me just remind everyone, the pinned tweets above, we do have our sponsor. We're now starting to accept sponsors. So the first sponsor is a project that's going to have a pretty big announcement coming in.

The project's called Planet. I'll pin it above again. You should definitely check them out. And they have the GOAT. We're calling it the GOAT because Rand is not allowing us. I'll be announcing who's going to be their sponsor, not advisor, but the face of the project. So they teamed up with a global superstar.

So you definitely check out Planet. That's number one. Number two, if you do want to shout out on the show or more importantly, what I really like, if you want to be incubated by us and have us help you out with whatever you need to build your project. We've been doing this since 2017.

Hit us up as well. The pinned tweets are above with the emails or you can just DM any of the hosts that you see. And lastly, we'll see you again tomorrow after Gareth gives us a final quick update. I gave you a chance. I gave you a chance. I gave you a chance, man. You can't just...

Come on, come on, come on. Yes, sir. Before you let Gareth finish, because we've got to do the right thing and let Gareth summarize this, but just give us finishing thoughts. But am I allowed to show one of our own products that I'm very excited about?

Yeah, man, of course. Go ahead. And I will not end the space as you shill it, I promise. There we go, five, four, three, two. Oh man, okay. So we have a product called Banter Bubbles, which displays all the tokens as bubbles. It's an app which is available on Android and on iOS.

And inside each bubble is a chat. So the idea is you wake up in the morning, you switch on the bubbles, you see which bubbles are big and which bubbles are red and which bubbles are green. And inside each bubble is a chat. So it shows you exactly why.

So people are chatting about why the bubbles are red and green. Now, we are running a promotion for the next 24 hours. Anybody that downloads the apps and is caught speaking in the bubble can stand a chance to win $1,000 and $2,000 if you

have been speaking in the bubbles. I just sent you a tweet, if you could pin it. It's also a tweet that's pinned. I've already pinned it. It's pinned on your profile. I've already pinned it just now. It would be cool to get this community talking in the banter bubbles as well. We really believe that that's the best way to drive the community.

So thank you, and I think now we should hand over to Gareth to give us some closing thoughts. Right, Mario? Should I? Ryan, how close are you to Gareth? You know what I mean. How close are you to Gareth? Be honest.

Gareth is part of the PC. Are you sure? Are you sure, yeah? La familia, la familia. All right. Well, based on your feedback just now i will give gareth the final word scott do you mind if i give gareth the final word just want to see if you know what i mean can gareth give us final feedback all right cool scott give me an okay so gareth uh scott and

ran approved this please final words on the markets everyone's waiting for it all yours all right all right final words watch 31,000 on Bitcoin.