The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Skyrockets: Is It Time To Buy Crypto?

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

I’m joined by Bill Barhydt, founder of Abra, to discuss the latest bullish sentiment in crypto and, of course, yesterday’s debate between John Deaton and Elizabeth Warren! Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital Bill Barhydt: https://x.com/billbarX ►►JOIN THE CRYPTO CONVERSATION WTIHOUT BOTS 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/uERNOst ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin continues to skyrocket, trading around $68,000 today. Is October upon us? We are on the back half of October when the cycle usually ramps up. Now, even though Bitcoin has been pushing higher, altcoins have been disproportionately getting wrecked by Bitcoin, as is tradition in this part of the cycle, leaving many to wonder, will altcoins ever outperform Bitcoin again? I've got a guest today who's been here for many cycles and probably has strong opinions on where we're headed. Bill Barheit, of course, and Christopher Inks from Texas West Capital on the back half. Let's go what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and hit the like button. I'm going to go ahead and bring on Bill right now.

Good morning, sir. Hey, good morning, Scott. Good to see you, bud. I'm looking for the piano behind you. It's not here today. Years of the piano background. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. It'll be back soon. I'm sure it'll be back soon. Yeah, exactly. So let's take a look at the market here. We got Bitcoin trading 67,968, up about 10% in seven days. Ethereum up 8%. Everything else, underperforming, right? And you take a look here at Bitcoin dominance. Not that I use the chart, but it's made a fresh high for this entire cycle now at 58.83%. So we know that when looking at that, Bitcoin's rising and altcoins are getting disproportionately wrecked by Bitcoin, still going up in dollars. But what do you make of where we're

at in the cycle right now? You and I have talked about this at length and things seem to be playing out as we predicted the last few times we spoke. Yeah. Well, it definitely feels or felt at least up until last week, like sideways fall. And, you know, it feels like the initial phase of a liquidity suck. So in other words, you know, clearly M2 is going up, clearly China is going to help. The US is about to start helping, I think, in a massive way. And we know what happens when the liquidity suck starts, usually Bitcoin dominates. And the alts, I think you'll see the major L1s act as a kind of a levered bet on that liquidity suck over the next 90 days, maybe 120 days, it'll start to catch up. Solana, SUI, Aptos are the ones that I'm looking at in

particular. I do expect Ethereum to start to move. But I still think that the Solana, SUI, Aptos are kind of the levered bets on Bitcoin. And just given the usage and the throughput numbers I'm seeing there, I'm not personal. This is my personal feeling, not investment advice. But I do think that those are going to have outsized performance versus Bitcoin over the next six to 12 months in particular. Yeah. People spend their time in this space constantly trying to find the next thousand X, but you really, if you want to just play it safe and probably make consistent money, you just buy the L1s and assume that you'll get a two or three X out of that thousand X that

happens to be built on that chain. Right. Yeah. I Yeah, exactly. Exactly right. It's not that hard. I think the government, like I said, the governments on a coordinated basis are starting to help. I think the news out of China this past weekend is helping Bitcoin tremendously right now. And I expect this is kind of the beginning of the move over the next kind of, I don't know, I think Bitcoin trails money supply changes by about what, six weeks, maybe 10 at the tops. So we should have a very good end of the year, especially with the uncertainty around the presidential cycle coming to an end in the next month or so. So much to unpack here. So I've made the point that you could have fallen on your head, had amnesia, been in a coma, woken up, gone back to sleep, and everything is exactly where it should be and

has been throughout this entire cycle, meaning we could have not talked about China and the Fed and COVID and all these things, and Bitcoin literally just ends up doing what it does in a halving cycle. Do you think that that's what's happening here? Or do you think that kind of as we've talked about with Raoul Pal, like that cycle happens to align with elections and happens to align with sort of this four-year global liquidity cycle? And maybe it's just the fact that all of these things always happen at once. My guess is it's the latter. And I think that, you know, look, I wasn't in the room when it happened, but I'm guessing when Satoshi looked at all of this and said, damn,

you mean that I can actually change the price or the circulating supply of Bitcoin, the new circulating supply every so often and have that coincide with an election cycle, which just happened to be, you know, happened to work out with when I was releasing Bitcoin. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that occurred to him or them at the time. But I think what's really playing out here is the broader money supply suck, which acts as kind of a levered bet on deflationary assets, right? That's why, anyway, we, we, we know this and we've seen it many times now, but, but I think the four year cycle is, is more of a, you know, is more about money supply than it is about Bitcoin supply.

Yeah. I think that makes perfect sense, especially as the asset matures and that supply reduction becomes less relevant because, yeah, because there's just so, so much more demand and institutional involvement and just becomes a little less relevant. I mean, you mentioned the election. Obviously, we have to at least touch on it. Polymarket here, absolutely skyrocketing. Every day we talk about it, it's up another 3% or 4%. It was over 60% this morning when I looked.

So Donald Trump at 59.1%. How much do you follow a polymarket versus normal polls? Do you think that it has more sort of pull because it's people actually betting their money? Or do you think, I mean, I kind of lean towards it's also not Americans and probably most people who use polymarket want Donald Trump to win. So maybe it's slightly- Yeah, I think there's two perspectives, right? Why am I betting in the first place? Am I betting to make money? Am I betting to state my views?

And when you get this much money in the system now, I tend to look at it more like people wanting to make money. I just find it hard to believe that this is a donation to say that, you know, here's my views on the election. So I'm actually looking at it first most days now. And I put a reasonable amount of weight on the idea that these folks are smart bettors looking at individual swing state polls, which clearly are showing Trump in the lead right now and Harris in a lot of trouble. So I don't look at this and go, oh, well, there's way more people that want Trump to win and therefore it's just widening.

I think people, I think 95% of the electorate has made up its mind and the 5%, maybe even less, has such a huge effect on things. And I think that, and by the way, we're talking about in the aggregate across what, eight states, less than 200,000 votes, right? And I do think that Elon's rally with Trump in, what's you look at the effect that it had, it almost didn't make sense, statistically speaking anyway. And so I think that was kind of the quote unquote beginning of the end for Kamala. Actually, I take that back. I think every time Kamala speaks, it's kind of the beginning of the end for Kamala. I don't know if you saw her interview on Howard Stern. It was just so bad. It was mind-blowing. But yeah, I think this is it. I think unless there's some last minute news, I think Trump wins. So what does that mean for crypto? I mean, that's the real question here.

I think a lot of people love it. I mean, I guess there should be a differentiation. We talk about it here all the time. But what does it mean for Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum? And what does it mean for crypto, you know, the broader industry in general? I would have three buckets, right? I would have, I would have Bitcoin, I would have crypto as, as kind of just assets and software. And then I would have corporate crypto where, you know, our companies are basically dependent upon kind of reasonable laws to operate. And I would say the one of the three buckets where this matters most is the corporate crypto. I think Bitcoin and the software pieces of this are going to be fine. And even if they had to play out SEC lawsuits, most of them would just win.

They have plenty of money to fight. It's corporate crypto that I think is going to be the big winner here and its ability to serve retail in a way that kind of democratizes access. And that's really been the big fight by the government players has been, you know, let's crush retail. We don't want retail to access stuff because when they lose money, they don't blame themselves. They blame the government. And that's, you know, and combined with the fact that which was clear on Deaton's masterful performance last night, that she just wants to socialize the banking system and will lie through her teeth. I'm talking about Elizabeth Warren now to get there. And if Harris were to win,

which I think she's not going to, it would be business as usual, except they would double down on their efforts to kill crypto access for retail in the United States. And anybody who thinks that's not true is delusional. Totally agree. So I have some clips from Deaton we'll play in a bit, but actually you talked about sort of the benefits that this will make to crypto companies. I mean, you're like a cockroach in nuclear war over there at Abra right now. Right. I mean, you survived this and you survived the entire contagion cycle.

You came out the other side with regulatory approval for novel new ways to do the business you were doing. I assume you have some insight into what this would all mean for companies like yours. Absolutely. Absolutely. I assume, you know, you have some insight into what this would all mean for companies like yours. Absolutely. Absolutely. I do. Yeah. So talk about while we're on it, before we move on, like what exactly, how have you restructured Abra? We've had conversations here before that will allow for people to do all the things that crypto has to offer in a safe and compliant regulatory, you know, regulatory approved environment. So we were attacked by both the states and the SEC for

the same things that Coinbase has been attacked. Coinbase chose to fight, you know, the earned product securities and things like that. And we chose to basically settle the matter and, and form a new wealth advisory that we registered with the SEC, I believe we're the first and only wealth advisory that's able to provide yield and lending services to retail investors. It has full risk disclosures as the SEC and Gary likes to talk about, you can read dozens and dozens of pages of disclosures, as the SEC and Gary likes to talk about. You can read dozens and dozens of pages of disclosures on how DeFi works and how you can lose your money investing in DeFi, which, by the way, I think is infinitely safer than investing in CeFi. And you're not actually taking counterparty risk to Abra when you get yield on your Bitcoin or yield on your

staked assets. Now, you can borrow against your Bitcoin holdings without having to worry about counterparty risk, meaning if Abra goes away, your loans are actually safe because the collateral is not sitting with Abra. It's you retaining title to your assets. And that's the way that this should have been done in the first place.

We just didn't have the tools as an industry to do it until the TVL, the total value locked in DeFi got high enough and the protocols were proven enough to be able to make these risk disclosures in the first place. Now we test a lot of this stuff with our own balance sheet and then kind of curate which protocols we can recommend to our clients. But again, the clients are effectively investing directly in those protocols. They're just using software that we provide in the background to make it easy to access. And again, that's the breakthrough, right? Easy to access yield, easy to access crypto-backed loans in a way where you're not taking counterparty risk to a company.

You're actually using crypto the way it was meant to be used. And that's the beautiful part is that you have the disclosure of the risk and the investor decides how much risk they're willing to take on. That's literally the SEC's job is to not tell you what you can and can't invest in. They're supposed to make sure that you know exactly the risks when you make that decision as a free human being on planet earth who's allowed to use their own brain to make financial decisions and then get out of the way that's right yeah well uh i don't know if they'll get out of the way if elizabeth warren wins or if kamala wins but we'll see i want to play this one clip you and i looked at right before the show about with john deaton talking about xrp i have so many of them but we're not going to watch them all man because one second

i'll run it back. Here we go. So, I mean, so good. I sued the government because the SEC had done something really bad to small retail investors. And a lifelong Democratic judge agreed with me. I did it all pro bono. And this token XRP was called legal because of my work. I won Lawyer of the Year, Consumer Advocate of the Year, year defender of freedom award because I did it for free and guess what last week that crypto billionaire that she's talking about that has supported me just donated millions of this XRP token to Vice President Harris campaign if I

didn't do what I did sue the SEC on behalf of small retail investors that donation to your candidate of choice, Senator, would not have happened. So, Madam Vice President, if you're watching, you're welcome. I mean, there's a ton of these clips. He eviscerated her. Yeah. And her only her only defense was calling him basically a MAGA Republican and saying that no matter what he says is a lie. Yeah.

I mean, look, she's going to win. It's Massachusetts. She could get up there with a picture of a body that she shot in the head outside the studio and she'd still be up 15 points in Syracuse, right? So look, and by the way, Chris Larson needs to be called out because he's the genius. And Chris, I know Chris is a friend,

but come on, Chris. I mean, what are you doing? I mean, these are people that have been trying to kill us and you're giving a billion in XRP or billions of XRP to these candidates. And so kudos to John. Why is he doing that then? If he doesn't believe that he'll be protected or that there's some upside. My theory, and it's just a theory, is that because Ripple basically sells through the banks, that they feel that they have a moat, a regulatory moat around their business, maybe. But when you've been attacked by the SEC the way he and Brad have, I just don't get it. I mean, like it would be the first thing I would do would be to call up John Deaton and say, what can I do to support you?

And he's doing the opposite. So he clearly feels that a democratic, controlled administration going forward represents a regulatory moat for the Ripple business of some kind. Or there's a couple of issues that I'm not aware of that are more important to him than his billion dollars worth of crypto. But John was just awesome. I mean, look, he's a national treasure and his ability to go to fight for retail investors in the background and prepare these amicus briefs the way he has is really what put him on the map. And he deserves all the kudos in the world for that. And I think, look, if you're going to chip away at democratic control in places like Massachusetts, California, New York, it might take a few election cycles,

right? And so he's doing God's work from my perspective in going out there and chipping away at this armor that she has around her and the lies that she's been willing to tell her constituents for over a decade now that have not only basically made us less safe from a banking perspective, the CFP consumer financial protection bureau is a joke of an agency has no oversight whatsoever, none. Right. And, and, you know, and she, and it's basically made her a gazillionaire. I mean, she came into Congress worth a few million dollars and what is she worth now over 200 million? How did that happen? Right. You know, let's, let's sit her and Pelosi down and have, have an investment advice to discussion, the discussion, because I would love to basically do what they do to make money.

Right. Because they are without a doubt, besides dead people, the two most successful investors in the United States right now, apparently. Yeah. It's, it's unbelievable, but you know, Larson obviously has given money to Harris. We've seen the crypto for Harris. I would say there's a select few that are in that. But the I mean, the bulk of obviously people to do what they want. I'm all for it. I'm all for hugging it out afterwards. But look, this is crazy. If you can't, if you're in tech and AI, crypto, any extension of it, and you don't understand the existential threats, right? The FTC, venture capital is dead. I'm an investor in VC firms. I haven't gotten a distribution check in so effing long that, that it's, I just basically consider it like a 501c3 donation now. Yeah. Right. It's out to zero. Yeah, exactly. And this is again, a function of this, this lunatic that we have running the FTC who AOC is doubling down on and says, if anybody tries to replace her, she's going to go to all out war. Well, AOC is, you know, she's just clueless. And so the quality of people that the Democrats are putting forward

right now is disheartening, truly disheartening. I have another clip that I have to play. This one's so good, too. Here we go. Just because it's really just optional. Warren would attack inflation the way she attacks crypto. I wish she would attack securing the border the way she's focused on crypto. You know, she's so focused on crypto. She had the CEO of JPMorgan Chase available for questioning, and they had financed the largest child sex trafficking operation in history with Jeffrey Epstein. And, you know, Senator Warren didn't ask a single question. She wanted to talk about crypto because she's so hyper focused.

Now, I know that because I was raped as a child for a period of two years, I might be a little more sensitive to those child rape victims. But I want to ask Senator Warren, why would you not ask one question? JPMorgan Chase settled for $290 million to these rape victims. They had to settle with the U.S. Virgin Islands. And Senator Warren doesn't ask the question. You want to know why? Because a former Democrat president's involved, because her donors are involved, because people that she knows are involved. Again, loyalty to an agenda, loyalty to a party. I come back, I come in and I want transparency on everything. I mean, eviscerated, eviscerated. And her response, I mean, oh, my God, the way she

she wouldn't even she wouldn't even acknowledge the question. Right. Because she literally had nothing to say. And she knew that she was had at that point. And she knew, well, first of all, she knows that all she had to do was show up for this debate. It's a rubber stamp anyway. And basically, like, not just not like, you know, just say, you know, I personally shot a bunch of people outside the studio and and, you know, helped helped get Epstein out of prison. She didn't have to say anything. Right. But yes, I mean, he is chipping away at the armor and, and God bless him for doing that. And, um, he, that, that, I don't know if that was a rehearsed, I'm sure it was rehearsed to some degree, but boy, was that beautiful. Yeah. The, the passion with which he spoke was incredible. But if anyone remembers that hearing, she sat there, asked Jamie Dimon questions. It was clearly scripted and rehearsed and that's

when he sat there and said if i was the government i would ban it that's right you know and you but it makes you wonder in the case of an elizabeth warren who made her reputation fighting for the little guy against the big banks and we know that her money comes from big banks and now she's lying in bed with jamie diamond. I mean, the hypocrisy is just... It's mind blowing. And look, I mean, the fact that she would probably choose an annoying Jamie Dimon as the king of the banks if she was able to socialize them under one or two banks is not a big surprise, right? Again, follow the money. This is not that hard. What is their incentive? Her incentive is to basically exert total totalitarian control over the financial system, turn it into a

socialized CCP, like, you know, People's Bank of Elizabeth Warren, and be done with it, because we're not smart enough to be able to make decisions as retail investors for ourselves. And that's been her MO since the beginning. She leveraged the 2007-2008 crisis to force this PBOC structure down everybody's throats that has no oversight. Sorry, not PBOC, that's China. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. I get my totalitarian societies confused sometimes, Scott. I'm sorry, getting old. But the CFPB was slammed down our throats with literally zero oversight. I've never seen a congressional hearing on what the CFPB does, what their oversight is, where the money comes from, what they're doing all day. Are they adding value? Who watches the watchers? That's always my first question when it comes to government. Who watches the watchers? That's always my first question when it comes to

government. Who watches the watchers? And these days, the answer is absolutely no one. And that's why we have this so-called deep state. We couldn't explain it very well six years ago when Trump was, we thought he was rambling and he wasn't, right? Many of us anyway, I'll at least put myself there. We thought he was rambling and he wasn't, right? Many of us anyway, I'll at least put myself there. We thought he was rambling and he wasn't, right? It turns out that this deep state is basically regulators who aren't elected run amok who get to decide on policy with minimal to zero oversight because the powers that be who enrich themselves via this deep state basically have no incentive whatsoever to tell the public that they're getting screwed yeah my problem is that i don't think trump really got rid of the deep state

whatever that is either if you guys are wondering what the deep state is by the way i'm not a huge fan i don't listen to the all-in podcast that regularly but i did listen to this panel that they did with john mearsheimer and jeff and jeffrey sacks If you want to understand what the deep state is, because you're probably wrong. It's not a bunch of like Illuminati in robes doing like eyes wide shut Fidelio parties in the back alleys, maybe. But really, really worth listening to.

I think it lends to, we have a situation where for our industry, certainly one president's better than the other. But I think for the, you know, if you're a Bitcoiner and you're concerned about money printing and inflation and such, that we're probably two sides of the same coin. And that's why we're Bitcoiners in the first place. Yeah, absolutely. And by the way, to the deep state point now, I think the big difference this cycle around, he's talking about the team that he's going to bring in, right, about Elon, about JD Vance, about Vivek, about Lutnik, from, you know,

also from, you know, the Bitcoiner, right, to come in and say, okay, right, what is the Doge department look like? What is the Department of Government Efficiency actually going to look like? And how are we going to start to shut it all down? You know, right, my three favorite words, shut it down. So I do think it's different this time. It feels different. It feels like there's a sense of urgency on this topic because they have a window of opportunity. I think before it was a little bit of a more rhetoric oriented before, it doesn't feel that way to me right now. I could just be telling myself what I want to hear. I, I readily admit that, but it does feel different. Speaking of Jamie Dimon, should we be concerned that we have a counter indicator here? JP Morgan bullish on crypto into 2025 considering a Trump win and other factors. I mean, honestly, they're

just pointing out the obvious here, right? The things that we've discussed, flows, Morgan Stanley coming in, the ETF, BlackRock, Larry Fitts, all the obvious reasons that you should be bullish on Bitcoin and crypto 2025. I have mixed feelings on the ETFs, partially for the reason implied by that title. I don't want Jamie Dimon and the big banks in the middle of my Bitcoin. I think that the ETFs have been amazing from a marketing perspective. You and I have talked about this before. I think the awareness they've created, this aura of acceptability because of people's over-reliance on deep state actors to make investment decisions and what's good and what's bad. But ultimately, people should be owning their own crypto. They shouldn't be using third parties to do that. I think if you

have a 401k or an IRA, it's fine to make allocations that way. Everyone else should be retaining title to their Bitcoin, either via cold storage or via services like Abra that lets you retain title to the Bitcoin and the crypto you own. The fact that he's starting to sound like Jim Cramer is a little bit scary, but I also think that it's a little bit different. I think Cramer is truly a counterpoint to the charts, whereas I think Diamond is just basically now touting the corporate Bitcoin line. Also, I mean, people forget these banks are huge, right? We get these titles that are like Goldman Sachs says, and you're like, no, it's like one analyst in one department at Goldman Sachs who said that. And the CEO has no idea he even said

it. JP Morgan doesn't know that this report probably came out from JP Morgan, right? I mean, there was a report from Goldman the last cycle cycle and I was on Peter McCormick's show. We spent an hour and a half eviscerating them for this ridiculous report slamming, like basically saying that Bitcoin was going to go to zero because you could just make an infinite number of cryptocurrencies. And it was just the dumbest shit that you, and of course it's labeled as quote unquote Goldman, because to your point, the person does happen to work for Goldman, but you know, probably doesn't know anybody higher than, you know, junior manager. And, you know, again, it becomes a Goldman report. Yeah, I know, it's almost time to go, but I'm not gonna let you.

We do have to talk about ETH, right? You mentioned it before. You kind of said passively that you think it'll catch a bid. I mean, regardless of who wins this election right now, even though flows have been slow and interest has been diminished, ETH is the only other one that has the ETF and a stamp of approval. It's the only one that has that level of TVL. It's the only one that Larry Fink is tokenizing real world assets on. I mean, I've long said that it's going to fly at some point. It's going to catch interest regardless. I mean, Matt Hogan, who's been on here a million times, kind of saying the same thing. He even went to

say that when they're out on their roadshow at this point, the interest is actually about 50-50 when he's talking to people. Makes sense. I agree with Matt on this one. I think Ethereum has got a big bid underneath it waiting to happen. I do think it's going to basically be in between Bitcoin and alt L1 performance, meaning Solana, Sui, Aptos, again, personal opinion, not investment advice. But that seems to be the way this will play out as the liquidity suck starts. People in the know will look at usage numbers and revenue generated via these L1s. And clearly, Solana is winning that race right now. The throughput race has Sui and Aptos coming on very, very strong with some very impressive

developer support. And I think Ethereum is still winning the hearts and minds of institutional investors. I think it will basically be the hearts and minds of institutional investors. I think it will basically be the platform of choice for real world assets. It will become the IBM of crypto. You don't lose your job by betting on Ethereum. And that's fine. I think Vitalik has woken up to this idea, in my opinion, I haven't discussed it with him, that, you know, it probably was a mistake to not focus on, you know, L1 performance versus roll-ups. And, and, um, I do think that this whole layer two industry is going to be gone in five years.

I don't wish, you know, look, I it's, it's amazing. Some of the tech that they've created, I hope it finds its way into other things. Uh, I'm working on some next generation stuff, which I'll be announcing soon. That's just takes advantage of a lot of the ZK technology and other platform technologies that these folks have been creating. And I think Vitalik now does regret to a certain degree, the original kind of scaling strategy for Ethereum. Not the proof of stake component. It's the throughput component that I think he's- Right. Not focusing on the layer one, when now you're seeing the solanas and suey's naphthys these things are so fast so cheap right yeah he could have done that on layer one with a theory absolutely absolutely and i realize i'm

oversimplifying here and and i may sound like i'm just poo-pooing all this layer two work i'm not i think it was necessary given what he did and what the l1 developers did i'm just questioning what they did and i'm not questioning proof did. I'm just questioning what they did. And I'm not questioning proof of stake. I think proof of stake was fine. I don't agree with the maxis on this. I think proof of stake is fine for a world computer type of environment. I think Bitcoin needs to stay proof of work for many reasons.

That's not the issue, right? I mean, obviously, the other L1s have shown that you can have high performance, high throughput L1s with a reasonable roadmap. The challenge that Ethereum has is that it can't suffer the downtime that Solana had the last cycle in order to get there, right? Now Solana is reaping the gains of that last cycle because it doesn't have any real downtime anymore. And it's becoming more and more decentralized over time, which is what you want to see, right? So I think they will, I think, I was about to say, I think they're going to recover. I don't think they're fully going to recover from this. I think that the roadmap will start to skew more and more towards the direction

of screwing the L2s. And I think that's probably a good thing. Yeah. One last thing I have to ask you about, since we talked about the election, we did have a World Liberty Financial officially launched. This obviously is the Trump-backed DeFi project. His children, I can't remember the terminology. Okay. He's the chief crypto advocate eric and donald are the web3 ambassadors and baron is the d5 visionary behind this it's a ave fork effectively i think a lot of people have said that why not just use ave or compound what's going to be different here but they did do the sale and it was targeted to accredited investors and i believe everybody even though% went to insiders,

I believe that's all locked up for a year, obviously, which is trying to be compliant with the SEC. I think he's going to have trouble if Gensler remains in power. If he wins, obviously, I think he'll be fine. But what kind of surprised me actually is they only sold 1.7%. Maybe that's because it's accredited

and they're not crypto people, right? Yeah. They only sold 1.7% of the target that they were looking for. You know, usually you would think that, especially now, this thing would have flown as NFTs sold out fast. And then the other question before I let you go. So why did it underperform so wildly so far?

And then B, why is he doing this within a month of the election? Yeah, so I have no involvement in the project at all, but I have spoken to someone who's a principal in the project. I didn't get to ask them why they're doing it this way from a fundraise perspective. I was just getting clarity on what it is they're actually doing, which is, like you said, the fork of Aave and the fact that it really is going to be a DeFi based, you know, lending and yield protocol, which I think is great. I think we need more of that. And if they can add value there, that's interesting. I think the problem is, is the way they launched this doesn't really

make a lot of sense, right? Aave and DeFi protocols are plumbing and you're trying to market it as a new banking system. So they should, what they should have done, in my opinion, is they should have basically had a seed funding, which, you know, in the background could have easily raised 25, $30 million. They could have done it with high net worth investors, VCs, um, and, and basically just, you know, kept it closed, announced it, got excitement over it, and then, you know, do a public auction for accredited investors in a second step. And don't don't raise don't announce the amount. That's the other thing. There's there's literally no point to announcing the amount you're raising in advance for the simple reason it's not up to you. It's up to the public. So I think the fundraise was handled and the announcement was handled very poorly.

I don't think that really has a lot to do with presidential candidate Trump. I'm guessing that the sons and I forget the last name of the real estate folks in the background that were helping, that I think they're friends of the Trump family. No problem with them getting into the crypto business, just not the correct way to go about fundraising for a project like this. That's really all. Yeah, it's interesting. Clearly, I mean, listen, he made the 15 second video, so he knows about it, right? My assumption earlier was it like somebody's tweeting from his account to support his sons. He knows about it. It'll be interesting. Listen, I would hate to see this fail, right? Regardless of politics, guys. Like, I don't care if you're voting for,

it just would be bad for crypto for there to be some huge grift or failure on this level. So my hope is that it slowly builds through time and people actually use it and it onboards millions of people who maybe wouldn't have been into crypto. I don't think that's necessarily what's going to happen, but that would be the silver lining, assuming that, you know, there's no rug pull or hack or any of those things. You know, I think it could be a net positive. It could be. Their white paper

calls for the creation of like a, you know, crypto credit card that would give you access to the DeFi rails for borrowing, you know, all clever stuff, all stuff that I would support. If I was building a neobank today, neobank meaning, you know, the digital bank that uses existing rails, I'd probably be building it on Solana and doing yield via Athena and debit cards via the existing banks and not use the banks for anything else. So the rails are there to replace the consumer retail banking system, especially outside the US, because people want to hold dollars in many countries. And so that's all interesting. And I think that they could have done this in a way where it says, we're going to build the plumbing. That's probably not very sexy or exciting.

No. But they probably would have raised a lot more money and it would have sounded a lot more successful by the time they had announced it. The problem is it probably would have come after the election. And I'm guessing they were probably trying to take advantage of the election cycle and the news associated with that to get more excitement for the launch. That strategy was just never going to work because most accredited investors don't understand crypto yet. Totally. All right. I kept you eight minutes over. I could talk for hours, Bill. Thank you so much, man. Always appreciate it. Guys, you should be following Bill. It's down in the description. Absolutely one of my favorite people in the space and

glad you're still here and kicking and doing what you're doing because it's really, really important. Thanks, bud. I'm playing my role as the cockroach of crypto and I'll continue to do so until they drag me out kicking and screaming in a rubber suit. You and me both, buddy. Thanks. All right. I'm going to bring Chris on in a second, but I just forgot about this story. I have not dug in so deeply to it, but it's so wild that I just have to show it. I don't know if you guys saw this. This, of course, is an account called AI Not Kill Everyoneism Memes. But Marc Andreessen sent $50,000 to an AI, effectively.

And this AI, apparently, which has an agent called Truth Terminal which is hilarious on Twitter started interacting with other AIs in their own AI environment and long story short created a meme called GOAT that's the token is GOAT but GOATSEYOFNOSIS which apparently is from an internet shock meme of a guy spreading his anus wide. This token that was spun up by the AI because it was funded by Horowitz Andreessen, but it had nothing to do, he had nothing to do with the token. This token has now reached a market cap of $150 million

that was created by AI talking to AI, discussing what kind of token to launch and then physically launched it itself and is now promoting it. Just in case you guys want to know if the future could be scary with AI, I don't know. I mean, Chris, I'm assuming you're not trading GOAT right now, but it's all the talk. No, you know, I can't say I am, but it just goes to show you there's money to be made, right? Dude, I mean, truth terminal, that's the thing.

It's like this account on, it's an AI, completely AI bot, like agent account on X has $300,000 of this token in its own wallet that it created. Like nobody set this wallet up for it. Nobody came up with this idea. I mean, this is bananas. It's definitely crazy stuff. I saw some of the comments people were making on it about how, oh, well, you know, it's not like it went there and traded its way up to that. It's because people were giving him money, blah, blah, blah.

I'm like, yeah, so it's like a professional panhandler. So it's an influencer. Good, good. Yeah, it works. It works. panhandler i mean it's an influencer good good yeah you know it works it works i mean that's i think that's the thing we have to you know we have to glean from it is it it figured out how to get people to give it money figured out how to get money itself i mean it's it's crazy unbelievable so for those of us who don't have ai brilliant ai agents creating anus memes and launching meme tokens we have to actually look at charts and try to figure out what the hell is going on. And right now, we did touch 68.

Man, some real volatility. I mean, yesterday, a high of 68, basically almost a low of 64.7. And in an hour, it basically went from that high to that low. So we're having some fun again. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Everybody's like, oh, well, hey, now it's finally doing something. And it's what we've talked about. People tend to get, again, all down and whatever the longer you're going sideways, but it's starting to get interesting. I'm still looking at the idea that we've got this leading diagonal here. right around 69,000 or so. Overextension kind of secondary target potentially up there around 71.6,

which still keeps it right below the WaveX. So, you know, if you're using Elliott Wave, if you wanna confirm that Wave, you know, four here is complete, you've gotta get above this WaveX at 71,943 and 26 cents. So, but right now, I mean, again, I think we get, I'm gonna see if we can get maybe a bit further push up here. We don't have to, um, we could actually be topped out here.

The important thing is when we pull back, you know, do we get about a 50% pullback right here around this daily pivot? And that's what we want to see. So if we measure out this run here. We don't, let me see here. Let me make sure I've got this all set up right here. Yeah. Okay. We don't quite do that there, which tells me, okay, so because we don't get the pullback to 50%, that's fine. This is a leading diagonal. Often a leading diagonal will only pull back about 38.2, 38.2%, because you get all the overlap in that area. So you have this overlap here, and then you have this overlap here, all in the same area here. And the idea, you know, structurally is that you're just going to pull back

into the previous area of resistance and support here. So, you know, we get almost a 38.2% pullback on there. That works out great. You know, we get up a little bit closer. It's still there here it's still there 50 is kind of close here so i mean to me it makes a lot of sense whether we get rejected here we do move up to one of these two targets that we kind of get this pull back down here to around you know 60 61 000 um which is what i've been talking about for a while and then we get the big the big breakout which is what I've been talking about for a while. And then we get the big breakout. Which is just another, I mean, I guess in the macro structure, we still haven't made a higher high, right?

So we got the high, low, lower, high, lower, low. And I was, my dumb head, I was still, like I told you, I was looking at 65 and then my brain worked. And I was like, no, it's 70. So we got to get above 70. But what you're talking about basically is if we drop down into here, in this new structure, low, high, higher, low, higher, high, higher, low, higher, it would just be another higher low before pushing up. So you have this sort of micro bull structure here that started down at 49.

And then that pushes us up through 70 and we really start to party. Yeah, exactly. Once we get through that macro structure, that 70,000 area, that then breaks know, that, that then, um, breaks that bearish market structure we've had since the all time high. And then we have bullish market structure coming off that 49,000 low. So, you know, I mean, it's, it's setting up perfectly. Um, again, I don't, I don't think we get a new all time high this month. Uh, I've been saying that I think if we do the earliest we get is the end of the month, but more likely, I think we get it sometime in November. And if we're going to actually, even if this is the top here, if we're going to pull back and then rally back up that,

you know, this should take probably a few weeks to get up here and to break out above, uh, way up here, you know, whatever that is, 73, 74,000 area to get new tall all time high high there so um i like it you know uh for those that are maybe getting a little impatient because now they're excited uh because they've been like all in the doldrums for so long now uh just you know be a little bit more patient we'll be good we'll head up there there's i mean technically we haven't broken through that bearish market structure but there's so much um when you look at the bullish side, but there's so much, when you look at the bullish side of it, there's so much compelling evidence there that the low is likely in that I think it just becomes just the next step, right? It's not even anything like, oh my

God, I can't go long until it breaks out above that. It's just that next logical step in heading up. So yeah, yeah, I like it, man. I like it. I'm excited about it. Yeah, I showed this earlier. What does it mean for alts is the question. Bitcoin dominance just made a new cycle high. So you can tell, listen, there's been some alts that have performed exceptionally well, Sui and Aptos. They're kind of like you have these cyclical things, but alts in general, you've wanted to just sit in Bitcoin for the last two years. Yeah, pretty much. I mean, look at that. I mean, it's from 39% to 59% since basically we entered 2023. Well, I was talking back there.

I was talking about rallying to 60 plus percent. And, you know, I got, again, you always get a lot of hatred online when you say something that goes against the norm. So I guess we're going to say it here again with Ethereum, because everybody loves to hate Ethereum right now. And everybody has to find're going to say it here again uh with ethereum because everybody loves to hate ethereum right now and everybody has to find a reason to do it so the reason to hate it are all saul's gonna do better than it okay fine it doesn't mean ethereum isn't going to rally right um but i'm looking at the weekly here we're looking like we're getting ready to kind of

break out through this resistance here and once we do uh again you know i'm still looking up here towards 61.60 at least you know and that's just based on this pullback right here so you know ethereum you know everybody can hate it and be upset about it and cry about it whatever but at the end of the day you know everybody was doing a solid nine everybody was doing it with link at four and five everybody was you know it's just the way the market is. And if you're going to be a trader, you have to get off that. You've got to stop listening to what the massive traders are, because the massive traders don't make any money. And I'm sorry, man, if you get one good trade, but then you're making a whole bunch of really bad trades. And so, you know, your equity curve kind of, you know, does this. uh, you're, you're not,

you're not making money trading. Okay. And that's what most of retail is. But, you know, I can't imagine having started today as a trader where we have social media, because then you get all that bad stuff that people who aren't making any money, who are trying to yell at the top of their lungs to be heard in social media. Um, know sometimes they have big followings and a lot of people come in they think oh they got a big following so they must know what they're talking about no they're just good at marketing um you know and you have that and as a new trader when you come in it's really difficult to kind of figure out what's the noise and what's actually actionable information what should you uh you know

uh be paying attention to which is what i speak about so you know so often throughout the years here uh on twitter and youtube and everything but yeah i think um you know ethereum sentiment is is like it just absolutely awful lows and um i i think we're gonna break out here we're gonna head up and you know at least 6160 at least coming up through there. So as far as – Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, no, I was going to say as far as the other alts that I'm kind of looking at the moment, a lot of them seem like they're probably topping out,

so they're probably going to get a pullback. Metis was a great trade. We had a 10.6R on this one, and as you can see, it's gone up a bit higher here. And I think it possibly could go up a bit higher here, maybe as high as $50 or so. But really just looking at a rejection between here and that $50 to pull back down here toward that $35, $36 area. And that would give us then this, this is leading diagonal again here, right? You'll see this everywhere across the crypto charts right now, but you got one, two, three, four, five. So this gives us one or a little bit higher up there. One, we pull back to that daily pivot

area there around 35, $36. That'll give us two and then three, and we're off to the races there. So if you're in Metis or you're looking to get into it or whatever, I would be cautious right now. Again, I think it's only got maybe a $50 push if it can get that. But ultimately, I'm looking to reenter again when it gets back down here around this $35 area and just really kind of take off on that. Shib, I think you got the mitt there, right? You got to pull out the mitt, man.

If you got the mitt, you got to pull out the mitt man if you got the mitt you got to pull there it is all right i got other shib stuff keep talking keep talking keep talking no dead air i got this thing i got this thing i got this thing so you're not you're not like all the other guys who have it all sitting right there behind you everybody can see it you gotta go grab it it's all hidden back here on my very messy desk that you guys can't see well shib looks like um it looks like we got a one a two a three and it looks like a four is done here so based on the height here of of wave four we should be looking potentially for a 26 74 target um so that's you know that's what i want to see here. If we can get this breakout,

especially if we get this breakout higher, we'll be looking out there. But then again, you know, we'll get that, we'll get a pullback probably right down around this same 1700 area, and then we'll have the big move up. STX here. Oh, let me see here. Yeah. So we had this, this slightly like took out the liquidity here, printed this doji candle, rallied back up through the, the pivot here. And on this, again, it looks like, you know, ABC one, two, ABC three, four. So again, ABC. Yeah, exactly. Right. That's what I heard. I heard the Jackson five. So, you know, we've got this target up here based on the height of this at around 2443 would be where I'm looking.

And you can see that's a great area for it. It's right here at this previous support resistance level right there in that low volume node makes a lot of sense on that. Now, none of this is going to hit overnight. These are daily charts, but this is kind of what we're looking for. So locally here, it looks like we've got one, two, three, four, and five. So we're probably done or just about. So we should pull back down here

toward the daily pivot at around $1.74 or so. And then we'll look for that next push up and again, continuing to head up toward that target area. And wax was another great setup we had. This move, we had the setup kind of coming over here and this just took off a lot quicker than we expected it to. But we were looking for a target right around this 77 cent area. So we got that.

And as you can see, it did rally significantly higher there. But it does, again, leading diagonal appear to be done here. So we're looking for some further breakdown below the R1 pivot. It's sitting here on the daily. And then a pullback, as you can see here again, that's a 50% pullback, around 60 cents here at that daily pivot. So looking for that pullback there. And then I'll be interested in looking for a reason to long it right around that area and kind of really take it off there. So, you know, that's what I'm kind of looking at. You're going to see, again, these leading diagonals, you know, we saw it on Bitcoin.

We're seeing it on these different alts, everything just coming off the swing low. So I mean, to me, it looks good. It looks good. You know, we still have the levels we have to get through to really kind of confirm all these things. But we're getting a lot of a similar movement here. And I think the rally will catch most people off guard because people still are, I guess, PTSD because we've been sideways for so long. But I like, you know, I like the charts. I like the setups. Finding ways to make money here.

Yeah. I mean, once Bitcoin settles in here, it's going to take a little time. But I think just like alts are going money here. Yeah. I mean, once Bitcoin settles in here, it's going to take a little time, but I think just like alts are going to fly. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely. Late this year, maybe 2025. I mean, usually it's like a January to May going into summer. They just go absolutely nuts. And then summer's miserable. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. If we look at the, you know, we often talk about what month, you know, Bitcoin and crypto is the worst and the best and whatever. But really, I saw some interesting research that said if you just bought into cryptos, you know, Bitcoin in October and held through basically April or May and then stayed out until October again, you would be up like significantly compared to, uh,

you know, if you were in the entire year and whatnot. So, uh, just, you know, again, some,

some interesting kind of, some research that, that people are putting out there that, uh, you know, so we're, we're coming into that, right.

October is right around the corner. Yeah. All right. Well guys, follow TX West capital on X. Obviously these setups he's talking about, you can get if you follow him and join up with him. And Fibo Suwani, who I say here, Scott Jackson, if you're nasty.

I guess that was more a response to my singing ABC. What's up, buddy? We met in person in Austin, so that was cool. Yeah, that's basically all I got for you guys today. Chris will be back next week right yes sir hopefully we'll be celebrating $70,000 Bitcoin and not $60,000 Bitcoin but both will be fine

you got my guys hanging here now just gonna stay there for a while good alright everyone we will see you next week I will see you tomorrow thank you very much later Chris appreciate it see you next week. I will see you tomorrow. Thank you very much. Later, Chris. Appreciate it.