The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin SKYROCKETS to $66K! Is $70K Next? Watch Now!

Episode Date: July 17, 2024

Bitcoin has jumped over 20% in the last week! I am joined by David Duong, the Head Of Institutional Research at Coinbase, to discuss this rally. Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  https://x.com/dav1dduong Chris Inks: https://x.com/TXWestCapital ►►INTERACT WITH ME HERE MOVING FORWARD 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/OBKErCO ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin bottomed below $55,000 just two short weeks ago and now is already back in the mid 60,000s hitting roughly 66,000. It has people wondering if new all-time highs are coming, if they're imminent or on their way. I'm going to be a spoiler. I think my opinion is that we're back in the range and it's still going to be a choppy summer, but I've got someone much smarter than me to unpack this and discuss what's really going on with the market and with the news. David Young, the head of institutional research at Coinbase. Let's go. And as I said, Bitcoin trading right now, roughly around 65,000. Personally, I think there could be some signals that we're topping here locally,

but we will get into that with Dave and of course, with Christopher Inks on the back half of the show. Going to go ahead and bring on David now. Good morning. How are you? Hey, Scott. Thanks for having me. So yeah, we've got this title, Bitcoin skyrockets to 66K.

It's kind of a skyrocket, you know, 10,000 bucks in like a week and a half. Is 70K next? Watch now. That was based on this article on CoinDesk. Bitcoin bulls eye 70K amid Donald Trump's rising chances of returning as president. So obviously, we saw somewhat of a move up after the failed assassination attempt. Trump doubling back down on attending the Bitcoin conference, which I think was in doubt. And of course, choosing J.D. Vance as his vice presidential

candidate, someone we know holds Bitcoin and has spoken favorably about the industry. So a lot of tailwinds here, if you believe they're going to be the winners. Do you think that's going to send us flying here? Or do you think this was the move? I think the first order kind of reaction to a potential change of the regulatory environment is kind of what markets have been anticipating for a while. And we did kind of get some changes over the last few weeks, I would say, even with a Supreme Court case that overturned Chevron deference, but markets didn't know really know how Court case that overturned Chevron deference. But Mark and Sidney really know how to take that because they're like, OK, these executive agencies are being exhausted of their power, but we're not actually sure how it's going

to look like with the courts kind of taking. So it was just too many variables to really consider, whereas the elections have been kind of waiting in the wings for a while. And we saw how the debate performance kind of occurred. But like, I think the weekend really kind of gave us a strong catalyst of like, hey guys, in five months time, there could be a whole new regulatory regime.

Like don't sell your Bitcoin if say you're a Mt. Gox claimant who's going to get these, you know, 142,000 Bitcoin coming soon. And that is a strong, both fundamental and technical factor because that fundamental really impacts the supply demand in the market at the moment. So I think that's what's really driving this. Let's talk about those supply overhangs. Obviously, we've had the German government selling. It's been widely reported. Seems they're almost done.

They don't have that much left, but now we have Mt. Gox coins moving yesterday. That was what caused the dip that we saw. I'm kind of with you. I think most of these people are early Bitcoiners. Most likely they're way up, so maybe they'll take some profit, I guess, but they understand the cycles and probably are getting this back and thinking, man, this is just going to fly. And it's also going to be sort of a scaled release of tokens, I would imagine. It's not like everybody's getting billions of dollars of Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin Cash is getting it done because they're getting that too. And I don't think anyone wants to hold that.

But maybe I'm wrong. I'm sure there's going to be some people who are going to consider the relative value plays between Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin itself. And there is going to be that dynamic that's going to play between like BCH and BTC. But I think overall though, for the most part, if anyone's worried about a sharp shock due to Mt. Gox, I think that is not going to happen.

At the very least, I think there are going to be considerations being made by the claimants who are receiving the Bitcoin to actually go, oh, you know what? This is the right price point. This is the volatility in the market. This is what I got to consider. I think it's going to be a lot more orderly if there is even selling that's going to happen. And there could be, but I think it's going to be fairly minor. I don't think it's going to have a large impact on the market. I mean, overall, just in general, these guys are OGs who probably had strong belief in Bitcoin, assuming they weren't one of the early, the guys who accepted an early payout or sold their claim to another third party. Most likely, they're not going to just kind of say like, oh, I'm completely indiscriminate towards the market and I'm going

to sell at any price. I don't think that's what's going to happen here. So we've had this sort of detachment, I think you can say, from stocks. Certainly, I don't know if you can say from macro, but certainly Bitcoin, steady downward trend since topping in March, while the NASDAQ and S&P have just continued to make all-time high after all-time high after all-time high. But I think it's fair to say, and when we were unpacking things before the stream, there's still a lot in the macro that's worth watching. Now, I know you guys obviously have to keep that context in mind. You have to sort of report your general feelings to customers and other institutions in your research. So how

are you framing Bitcoin right now and its potential and timing in context of rate hikes and the election and liquidity cycles and Ethereum ETF? There's so many things. Yeah. I mean, overall, I think that the next two months, probably like as we, the early part, the two thirds part of like Q3, honestly, it's probably still going to remain fairly choppy just because there doesn't seem to be a lot of catalysts coming on the crypto side.

I mean, there's the ETH ETF that's coming next week, but I think expectations for that are still fairly low. For example, we have this narrative on the political side that might be changing things. So I think that's the one variable that I don't quite have a firm grasp on in terms of potentially kind of moving things. But for the most part, the macro side also doesn't have a lot of momentum to it. Not until we get to September when I think Fed rate cuts are actually coming. And then I think things are going to rip. I think as we get into Q4, I would be very constructive on long duration assets, both stocks and crypto. And I think that is still contingent upon whether we're going to have a decent macro economic environment at

that period of time. I think we do. But honestly, Scott, I've been reading a lot more from other very smart people who are saying we could have a recession in Q4 or it starts in 2025. And like, I've never seen opinions on the economy like like vary so widely in my life. That's what I was going to say. Not only do we have varying opinions, but we have very smart people passionately taking both sides. Right. I mean, there's people I've respected for a very long time whose research I read and whose opinions I value who say great reset is coming and it's just been delayed. And then there's people who are just like, dude, we're going to get liquidity before anything breaks and it's just going to be an absolute moonshot, right? And so it's very hard, I think, to navigate that.

And then certainly to put crypto in context of it. For me, I just go back to the base case of the four-year cycle and think, okay, boring summer, we're going to chop sideways, and assuming nothing fundamentally breaks, it's going to be a great fall. Yeah, I mean, a big part of why the opinions are varying so much is that, honestly, we have so many macro variables these days. And it's not that we never didn't have them like before. It's just that like almost all of them seem kind of relevant at this stage. And, you know, you get your ISM, which, you know, like, like 10 years ago, I think like people were like, oh, this is still too young as an indicator to kind of rely on. Now

people are looking at it and saying like, well, this is suggesting that things are very wobbly at the moment. Unemployment rates are going up. And I'm like, yeah, but from super low levels. But I think like we're all trying to reckon with like what the actual scenario is. I tend to believe that for the most part, we have so many productivity led technologies that I think kind of came after the pandemic. You know, when we were all stuck at home, all of us learned how to pick up Slack and learn how... Well, that was an old technology, but pick up how to use...

Is that a pun? It was not, but it was not an intentional one, but it could be a dad joke. But yeah, I feel like everyone from your boomers down to whoever just picked up technology very quickly during the pandemic because you had to. And now that kind of feeds into this potential productivity boom that we've been waiting for since the end of the pandemic, but really hasn't materialized. And on top of that, we have AI and generative AI.

And there's a lot of articles saying that a lot of companies haven't fully integrated yet, or can't figure out how to integrate it. But I think that there are a lot more who have, and whose jobs have improved as a result of it. And I think that that could actually lead us to productivity, which has been dipping for the last 15 years. And that runs in a lot of cycles as well. Every 15 years or so, we tend to see a run-up in productivity that can move the economy up, probably starting as early as Q4. And I think that if we have that, we could see a lot more retail money in this space. Really interesting. As you were talking, something I thought of, right? We all know that the Fed has the dual mandate. They're balancing inflation with jobs. We've seen a slight uptick

maybe in unemployment, but not so significant. But a lot of people fear that when that starts going up, it's going to go up fast. But if they cut rates to deal with that and productivity is effectively replaced by AI instead of the humans, could the unemployment numbers going up actually have less of an effect than they would have in the past without all of this technology effectively doing these people's jobs? That's a really good question. So number one, I think- It might be a stupid one, but it just came to my mind. But imagine unemployment's up, but AI is doing five people's jobs in and out, right? Right. But the Fed's mandate is to actually have not just stable prices, but actually full employment as well, or up to

the NIRO, the natural rate of unemployment. So I would say that right now, the Fed is facing something of a Hobson's choice, and it kind of goes beyond its dual mandate, to be quite honest with you. And I think that's something that people are missing as well, because there's all these other realities that are going on in the economy. For example, the commercial real estate, which we've talked about for some time, it's probably suffering from a potential rollover that will cost up to around $1 trillion in debt in the next year to two years. This is all happening in 2024, 2025. They're going to have to do it at much higher rates than they have 10 years ago, 15 years ago.

And the Fed's going to say, like, if they are trying to roll over at 8% rather than much lower rates, like this could create a real crisis in the economy. And if we don't cut rates so they can actually start rolling that debt over because, you know, this all debt because unlike the personal debt that we have, which is all fixed rate debt, these guys all have it a variable rate debt. Like if we don't allow them to do so at lower rates, we're going to have our prices on our hands. So I think there are these economic realities that the Fed is actually facing and saying to themselves, crap, we need to cut rates regardless. But yeah, you know, it's supposed to be their problem. But it's interesting. I spoke to Lynn Alden yesterday, obviously, and that podcast is coming out on Sunday. And we dove really deeply. And she basically said, listen, like, it's their dual mandate. They have reason to cut looking at that. She's like, but look back at Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed didn't hesitate to step in with a bazooka and solve a fiscal problem. That wasn't their mandate, right?

And so as much as we can say the spiraling debt and the refinancing of that debt isn't their problem, we know that they're going to at least try. But she also believed that interest rate cuts are going to be basically useless in this environment, that we pay too much attention to the Fed. And that's all we talk about. But if the Treasury is over there, you know, just adding a trillion dollars every hundred days or whatever it is, that's not going to And I think in part, you know, like if let's say the U.S. elections happen and the choice that we make is someone who actually votes for or opts to actually increase the fiscal deficit significantly, adds a lot to the debt. Like that's potentially inflationary for the economy. What happens to crypto in that environment? I think that that's really the big question that I wrestle with, because I honestly can't really tell. It's very hard to tell what's going to happen to the dollar in that environment, because typically you would have expected the dollar to strengthen because in an environment

where you're concerned about that, except the source of the fiscal pain is coming from the US, which would directly impact that dollar. Like, what do you do in that scenario? Like, theoretically, I think you would buy Bitcoin. And I think that Bitcoin sits as a wonderful alternative to the traditional fiscal system and its deterioration. But this is also a longer term theme, to be quite honest with you.

Like, we talk about de-dollarization all the time, but de-dollarization isn't happening tomorrow. It is happening like in decades exactly even if they even if other countries aggressively start trying to do it today it would take decades yeah i mean there's a lot of effect of the dollar is undefeated right and like because there is no alternative for a lot of these companies, a lot of these countries, like they pretty much say, well, we all need to hold U.S. debt to some degree because we are trying to make the global financial system work. And we need an intermediary. to replace it because this the U.S. can't borrow at this level and it can't have a fiscal deficit at this like to this degree. And no one grimaces at all. Like there's no way that other countries are looking at it and saying like, yeah, we're totally OK with the U.S. borrowing as much as it needs to and spending as much as it needs to. Like that's not going to be the case. So at some point that will stop. And we're seeing that like slowly and slowly, slowly, like other countries are saying like,

hey, let me let's replace Swift with Sips, for example. And let's like, you know, you know, like look for other alternatives in our reserves. Let's hold more gold instead of like instead of the U.S. Treasuries, for example. So I think over time you are starting to see that happen. It's just we're at the very tip of that.

It hasn't materialized into a massive destruction of the US dollar, for example. But what I hear is if things go really well, buy Bitcoin because it'll be higher beta and it should outperform like it has in the past. And if things go really bad, buy Bitcoin because it'll be higher beta and it should outperform like it has in the past. And if things go really bad, buy Bitcoin

for the long term because you'll need to have it. So I see nothing but tailwinds in either direction when I really dig in. It doesn't mean it wouldn't go down in the short term, you know, on an event, but it seems like there's really no major bear case for Bitcoin in the long term. Certainly.

At least of the two main scenarios I see in a post-election scenario, let's say, let's assume the Republicans have a sweep, for example. Well, yeah, you know, like Trump and like his cohorts definitely have a very strong view of like the U.S. equity market, for example. And they want that to grow and they they're very pro business, that is probably going to be good for Bitcoin, because I think that for many Bitcoin is still observed, at least in the institutional space, as a technology play more so than, you know, like, as digital gold or however other narratives that we kind of put on it. But then also, like, if we're seeing like massive fiscal inflation, for example, you know, I think that there is the potential for Bitcoin to kind of reclaim its spot as an inflation hedge and actually do quite nicely in that environment as well. And so I look at those two scenarios.

I'm like either one of those actually say buy Bitcoin. There's other scenarios, of course, but those are, I think, the two main ones that I think are going to be there. Well, speaking of Trump, he says he wants U.S. in charge of crypto before China. We also saw, you know, maybe a month ago he said he wants to have all Bitcoin made in America, which was just a classic Trumpism. But also teasing another nft launch i believe his fourth collection i haven't looked at how well these have done maybe i don't know but i think they've actually done pretty well i think he's single-handedly keeping the nft market afloat uh i i i i don't know how well it's been doing, but like, I haven't really been hearing a lot about NFTs except by Ornals and other things, except because of like Trump's collection. I don't know.

Do you think, just totally, if we get the cycle, you know, and things ramp up, do you think that we see a big cycle of NFT, PFP projects again? Like, is that an indictment that right now you don't hear about them and they're dead or is it an opportunity? I mean, some things just die like beanie babies, right? I'm not saying NFTs are beanie babies. So something being completely dead at the moment is not always an opportunity. I have a feeling though that at least some of these more blue chip ones will probably see another huge rally at some point. I think they you know and i don't think the nft market is dead per se but certainly a lot of the meme coin activity that we saw uh in this cycle i think kind of supplanted nfts uh to some extent like at least the nft like you know movement that we saw in

same audience previous years yeah with the community arguments and all of that it's a yeah i agree but i think that uh we don't know what happens in 2025 if we get a proper cycle. Right. Yeah. What will happen? How much money? So let's say I want to pivot a bit to these ETFs. Pretty astounding numbers still.

Right. So the Bitcoin ETF inflows hit six-week high of $422.5 million. That was just yesterday. Right. Obviously, with Bitcoin, as I said, recovering 23% off the lows. We also went over 16 billion in net inflows, and that's in six months, right?

Yeah. And a lot of people think that's constructive for what would happen with Ethereum. We've seen Matt Hogan. He was on here last week. Bitwise CEO predicts Ethereum ETF inflows will push Ether prices to all-time highs above 5,000. He thought

that it would take basically 18 months to do what it's taken Bitcoin six months to do. So 15 billion or so in inflows in 18 months. So much like the economy we talked about, we have a very, I think, wide range of predictions for what happens when these things start trading likely next week. Yeah. First of all, I think on the Bitcoin ETFs, I agree. I was wrong as well. My expectations on the flows were much more conservative compared to what we've actually gotten in the first six months. And, you know, like I think that part of that over the last week has had to do with the fact that expectations on the German government being exhausting their supply of Bitcoin caused a lot of people to realize that there was going to be a bump up, even short term.

Because once they were done, that supply overhang was going to lead into fundamentals being supported again. But with the ETH ETFs coming next week, I, it's actually coming at a much more opportune time. I think initially when the Bloomberg Intelligence guys were expecting that was going to come the week of July 4th, I was actually very worried. Terrible. Oh my God. That's a week with two Fridays basically for legacy trading. So Wednesday was a half day. Friday was off.

So basically I had like two expirations. Thursday was off. Nobody around and market at lows. Yep. I think right now it seems like the ETFs are probably landing at like the best time they possibly could. And I think that that kind of goes for both what's going on in crypto as well as,

you know, you kind of mentioned us equities before. I think that that also is playing a theme because you have a lot of investors who are, they've been playing the AI theme for a while, but I'll be honest, it feels like the AI theme is starting to get not fully exhausted, but somewhat exhausted. There's been this rotation into small cap stocks, for example, we're now in the middle of earning season, or at least the beginning of earning season. And I think that, you know, even though for the most part, earnings have been supportive of the idea that maybe things aren't quite as expensive as some people fear. I think

the idea that people are looking now for other things, I think, you know, could actually suit crypto pretty well. And they might be looking at ETH and actually saying like, you know what, like this, this could be this interesting, this interesting asset that so far no one's really like spent the same time like marketing, right? Like we saw like ahead of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, like all the issues were really kind of out there and kind of pushing the product hasn't gotten the same treatment but yet i think a lot of people are missing the fact that like so much e-supply is locked up in a way that's not really true of bitcoin for example like 33 percent uh you know e staking ratio for example massive like i think that there are a ton of people sitting in the validator entry queue for example like outside like compared to the execute part of that has to do with the fact that like we saw the churn limit change due to the last upgrade for example the dinkum upgrade but for the most part i think the people are champing at the bit

to try to actually get in there and become validators that's only going to increase the uh the staking ratio even higher also a lot of people forget there is a ton of ETH sitting as collateral inside of DeFi. There's like $9 billion in Aave, for example. There's so much in all these platforms that are inside of ETH that really, if the value of ETH starts going up because inflows go up even just a little bit, because there's a little bit of demand for ETH. Like that means that there's going to be a multiplier effect of that collateral actually representing significant like amounts. If you're in like in DAI, for example, that's backed by ETH and now it's worth more like in dollar terms, like that DAI has a higher value. And like,

as it gets burned, people will be like, well, I got to do something else with it. That kind of gets fed back into the system. And that price ratio, like more ETH getting bought up, I think is going to increase its value. So I think that this is something that people miss when they think about this being a one to one kind of move of flows to performance. There's a multiplier effect built into that that could actually increase the value even more and push flows higher than what low expectations are.

Because when I talk to a lot of institutional clients, their views are that this is going to be like $1 billion on the low end, $3 billion on the high end. Honestly, I think there's a chance that it could surprise higher given expectations are so weak. And I think what you said is really important. It's just a much smaller market. So any volume of inflows coming into this is going to have a disproportionately large effect, I think, on the price of Ethereum. That doesn't mean it'll happen. We could see ETH unlock and Grayscale go with aggressive fees again and get $8 or $9 billion in selling pressure and see these things, see this thing sell off massively. But I think longer term, it'll follow the map of Bitcoin. And as it gets more education and people understanding it, you said people view Bitcoin

as a tech play. Wait till they understand the difference between Bitcoin and ETH if that's what they're looking for. Like, you know, high beta tech play. If they start to understand that that's what they can view eth as it's going to be pretty wild especially if this goes into the like we really start a bull market a month or two after yeah i mean like a lot of people suggest that like it's really hard to sell eth because like and you know i i think the people who view bitcoin as a tech play maybe are the minority but like they view it as like digital gold plus tech. I think like that's probably the optimal way a lot of people like are selling it to boomers, for example, but they haven't been able to kind of get the same messaging

across on ETH of like, hey, this is like web 3.0 and this is kind of what it represents and people are building on it. I think that like it's harder for people to kind of get around the idea of like an EVM and smart contracts and all this kind of stuff. But honestly, I don't think it should be. I think that they don't have to understand it completely. Right. Right.

I mean, like there are so many people whose conversations kind of spin to like, Oh, I like Bitcoin, but like, I wanted to do more. I'm like, well,

that's Ethereum. Like, what, what, what did you think Ethereum was built for? Because like someone came around and said, oh, I like Bitcoin, but like I wanted to do more. I'm like, well, that's Ethereum. What did you think Ethereum was built for? Because like someone came around and said, like, I like Bitcoin, but also we could do other things with Bitcoin. Let's do it. Like that should be an easily packageable message that I think we can get across to a lot of investors. So I think that like that's going to be there, but it's just just waiting for it to be unpacked. Absolutely. So listen, I think we share the same sort of base case, volatile couple months of chop and maybe.

Best chance of really serious upside price action, mid to late December, early October ish. Yeah, I think it's a prediction, guys. I have no crystal ball could be completely wrong. No, I think like the first two weeks, people are still just going to be figuring this stuff out. And it's not going to that's that's not you know, that probably will follow Bitcoin, because if you remember the spot Bitcoin ETF, that's what happened. Right. We had it. And then like the first week, nothing happened. First two weeks, nothing happened. And then it just kind of like broke out. And in large part, that's because no one knew it. No one knew how to react in the first two weeks.

And also we were getting like a lot of cross flows from GBTC into other funds. We won't see the same level of for selling pressure, by the way, for ETH because it's not it's not the component that was in a lot of these portfolios that were then forced to kind of sell. But I do think that, you know, you might see there's going to be some rebalancing in the beginning and then the flows I think will start to come in the weeks after. I like it. Remain stable. Let's my friends, David, always a pleasure to have you, man. Thank you so much. Everybody follow him on exits right down below. I won't regale you with the tales of how we got him to start using it again because you're sick of it.

But always great to have you on here. And we'll continue to do so so that we can keep up and see if we're right or wrong. Sounds great. Thanks, Scott. Thanks, David. Have a good one, man. See you. All right, guys.

Always amazing insight from David. Certainly one of the best minds we have in this industry and someone we should absolutely be listening to because he is the head of research for Coinbase and nobody has more information and insight than Coinbase. But now we can degen out a little bit, start looking at some charts, look at the market. We've got one of the three beards who make prominent roles on this channel, Christopher Inks.

I'm assuming that since I'm seeing you, your feet are not in water and that you have power. We have power. That's the big thing. We have power. That was a rough week last week, man. I ain't going to kid. How bad did it get there? Like how long were you out without power? Almost a week, man. And there's still people out there. There's still like 200,000 people, something like that, that still don't have power.

And it's just ridiculous for a Cat 1 hurricane to come through and put almost 3 million people out of power. But a lot of that vegetation is being cleared away now because there was a lot of vegetation that was falling on the lines and whatnot. It's taken up the poles. Trees hit the lines. So all that deferred maintenance that one of the energy companies had been putting off is getting done now at this time, which is what's taking so long. It's rough though, man.

It's been tough. Yeah, man. When I was in high school, we did two weeks, like mid summer in Florida with no power after one of the hurricanes. And that was not something I would wish on my worst enemy. Not at all. Not especially in the summers, you know, Houston's a lot like Florida. You get humidity, uh, you got the heat, you know, it's 90 degrees, but it feels like 110. It's, it's absolutely stupid. Yeah. For most of whatani says, hey, Chris. Hey, Scott. I am bullish as fuck. You? I am bullish as fuck, but it depends on timeframe. So I guess I guess I'll talk about there's one thing I want to show you, Chris, because and then we'll then we can start with you. There's the four hour Bitcoin line chart. You know,

we like to do that hit massively overbought at 81 RSI and has some pretty clear bearish divergence. Yeah. Yeah. And also you can see there that on the RSI, it's getting pretty close to a lower low on that and price will obviously be a pretty significantly higher high. So we might just see one of those things where it just kind of overlaps and continues up a little bit higher. You get the overbought, oversold or you know the uh bearish bullish bearish bullish kind of thing um as it finishes out so yeah yeah you know you got to pay attention to it but there's other good things we're looking at as well it's been a great to me it says like you know we drop one or two thousand bucks or something freak everyone out this resets back to like the half line and then continue back up like we go retest the bottom of

the range or something. I mean, the daily, obviously now these lines are all over the place, but we had the oversold bullish divergence, most gratuitous bottom signal you're going to find guys. Like, I'm sorry. Oversold, oversold. Exactly. And on the daily, we hadn't been oversold since 26,000 in August. Right. I mean, this is like, it's when it's even being oversold as a signal at that point that something's going to happen when you get bullish divergence. And we've only gotten up to 62. So maybe. Yeah. So maybe that retraces like this bounces back to 50 RSI type thing and then we continue.

But let's do something around there. Exactly. Yeah. You know, so, you know, me, I've been continue to continue saying this arrange. I've kind of expanded my range a bit as price actions played out. But, you know, again, for me, the volume and price action has told the story. You know, I've continued since the beginning, basically talking about this likely being reaccumulation. I haven't changed. It still looks like that. You know, as much as we've gone through all this, volume just continued to drop off. You know, there was no real significant volume at the tops here.

They were all volume was dropping off quite a bit as we got through there. So what that tells us, there is any real selling going on up here, which is what you usually get distribution coming down through here. We didn't have any like strong move up in volume. Usually you're going to see a really strong increase in volume as you're coming down because that's that that added sell pressure as it's going down. That's market acceptance, right? The market says, oh my gosh, we're going to go down. We all need to short. We didn't get that. We got down to the bottom here, printed this great looking pin bar right here on the S1 pivot on the daily. And so we say that the S1 pivot there held this support. Again, as you showed, we had that bullish divergence coming out of there locally. You know, we had this, depending on how you look at it, look at this through Wyckoff logic, this would be a spring. If you look at it through, you know,

just a channel, it's a throw under. And, you know, you get this great movement afterward, which is what you look for, right? When you have some kind of throw under like this, you're looking for a nice explosive movement up, which is what you look for, right? When you have some kind of throw under like this, you're looking for a nice explosive movement up, which is what we got. So, I mean, there's so little to be bearish about on this. And not only did we get this, but we had this spike of volume, large candle spread close above the daily pivot. Next day, we've got this, you know, again, similar volume, not quite as much, but similar. But the pullback was just to the channel EQ here and close back up above it. Here we are above it. So, you know, the way I'm looking, as long as we're above that daily pivot, we're targeting the R1 up there. We're targeting 70,000, 70 and a half up here toward this area. If we do happen to break down below this swing low

here, right around the 62, 460 kind of area, I'd be looking for 59, 60,000, which is basically the hourly pivot area there. It's basically be a retest of this descending resistance. But, you know, honestly, I don't know that we get that. I could see a scenario where maybe we kind of like dip a little bit lower here and then go up. But ultimately, I think we continue to be bullish. Again, I see nothing on this chart here that says that anybody should be bearish. The volume and the price action are really the big speakers here.

And it looks great. So, you know, I think we're still looking good. Hopefully some people got some buys down here, didn't sell down here and get caught in this bear trap. But, you know, again, you got spring here. You've got this test of that spring, higher, low, significantly less volume coming out of that. It's a successful test, rallied up, pulled back, S1 pivot, and then took off. I mean, I love it, man. Someone's asking, what about the CME gap? Is there a CME gap? I haven't- There's tons of CME gaps all the way down. I think Big Jonas has been talking

about it a lot. Well, I know there's some very far down, I know, but I think. But as I've talked many times before on here, just because there's a gap doesn't mean it needs to be filled. There's different types of gaps. Yeah, I've heard a lot of them once. Yeah. Weekend gaps are just gaps because the market's not open at that time. And so they rarely need to be filled or, you know, if they get filled, it's kind of like a toss up of what they do or not. And so I think if you just trade gaps, I think you're kind of really been kind of putting yourself in a bad position on this rally up from, you know, 20,000,

because we got multiple gaps in there. Yeah. I think he, I'm assuming he means this one from over the weekend. It gapped up basically from the close 57.7 to 61. But like you said, that's a pretty normal gap. There's a lot of kind of gaps. I literally wrote about an article on this in 2020. Yeah, I remember that article. Yeah. Yeah. Not all gaps are created equal.

If you draw that descending resistance that I've got on my chart there on that, you'll see the gaps right through it. So, again, that's the least of my thoughts is worrying about it getting back down there. It could, sure. But I think if you're trading just based on the fact there's a gap there, I think this cycle has been pretty clear that it's not a really great trade to make as far because again there's just multiple CME gaps as we come down now they could get filled at some point but I don't know you know we'd have to have a pretty big pretty big change in sentiment and

whatnot I guess to get us back down there toward 20,000. So, but yeah, I wouldn't really worry about a whole lot. Perfect. What else you got then? Let's see. I got quite a few charts. I've got Ethereum. So Ethereum, we had this great move up and I thought we were going to head up, but no, we came back and we dipped just below this range low here. So I've got this set up. It looks to me like it is a reaccumulation here based on the volume and the price action. So again, looking for this to rally up and break out. And so just based on the height here from the swing high to the swing low, that gives us a minimum target of 5170, which will give us a new all-time high. So I think if you want to be conservative on where you think it's going, I think you at least probably look at that especially if we break out above this uh swing high here around 39 73 90 on this chart

this is the ethereum usd chart on coinbase but if we break out above that that gives us three waves down so that becomes corrective you know it it uh confirms the correction and we should be heading out higher so i think ethereum looking good here. This is the weekly chart, by the way. And you'll notice, you know, down here in Stoke RSI, dip down and oversold, broke out, bullish cross. RSI itself finding support right around, so I get it here, right around neutral. Take it back up, nearing a bullish cross as well.

So the setup is there. You know, it doesn't mean it happens tomorrow or even this week that we break out, but I think that we will head up at least to that based on that right there. So Ethereum looking good. You're looking bullish just like Bitcoin there. Before we jump into some alts here, I want to just talk about two things. We've got FedEx here, which had a great, it's had a great, you see this is the monthly chart here so i had a great month uh last month it's having a good month this month we're at three about 312 319 19 is the all-time high so getting ready to break on out of that um so you

know i think uh you know if you're looking at stocks i think over the next few months fedex could end up doing pretty well here. We've got a lot of room here on Stoke RSI and RSI for price to rally up. You can see that we kind of pulled back to that monthly pivot there. R1 pulled back, breaking out higher now. So I think blue sky territory there looks like a good trade incoming on that. They're great with packages. Oh, yeah.

Yeah. And here's one, man. I love this one because this is one I've been talking with you about since last, gosh, at least last October. Um, you know, when we had this dip just below the range low here, I was talking about this being, you know, reaccumulate or accumulation here. And I said, if we got a good week after this, I said, then that would cement that this is likely a spring right here. We should be long to new all-time highs. And so, you know, that was less than nine months ago. We're up. Oh, geez. I guess we went up a little bit more here. We're up about, what are we up here? Almost 40% right now in less than nine months.

Small caps just doing a huge thing. And I was talking about back here, we would see that money would start kind of moving from like the mag seven into a lot of larger caps into the small caps. And so that's what we're kind of getting this, a bit of this rotation here. But we've got that target up there, 2339,

and we're almost there. So again, another great trade. I know it's almost nine months for 40%. Oh my God. But, uh, the pain, the pain for all crypto people. They want it in a day. Right. Uh, but for stocks, uh, absolutely fantastic move. It's huge. Um, and I saw something the other day, I think I even posted on, on Twitter there about, uh, I think it was the, uh, the Russell index, which is what this, this is the futures for the Russell 2000. But the Russell 2000 being at, I think he said like four standard deviations above the 50 MA or something like that, which was the biggest that it's ever been among any indexes. So S&P, anything else, the Dow 1900, all that kind of stuff. So it's really been significant, this continuation and move we've had in such a short period of time here. But ultimately, you know, again, looking up here around that 2339, we'll be looking for a rejection somewhere around there. Get the pullback probably down here toward 2000 or so to 2100.

And then we'll be looking for a breakout to new all time highs. So if you're into stocks, if you're into indexes, if you're into futures, I think that'd be something to continue to probably look at here. I think we might end up getting a bit higher here because, you know, we've got a one and a two. We're still in three here. We haven't even done a four yet. So we might actually head up here toward 2385 even, getting it pretty clear, you know, pretty close toward the all-time high before we actually get that wave one completion. All right, let's look here real quick. Oh, one of my favorite charts

I'm looking at right now. Look at this Adam chart, this weekly. Look at this. That looks just like the one you just shared, by the way. It does, right? When it was at the bottom of accumulation. Funny how that happens. Look at this, man. But june 20th uh the week of june 20th of 20 or june 13 2022 and uh we have bullish divergence bullish rsi divergence since then until july the week of july 1st here uh we've got what you know appears to be a spring here a low volume spring so we look at the volume over here on this candle.

Let me see here on this spring, on the selling climax over here. Oh, okay. Let me get in there. It's 42.65 million on this candle. And then we get the spring here, low volume, 14.841. That's exactly what we're looking for. I like this as a long, if we can get an impulsive breakout and close above this descending resistance, that would be even more kind of, you know, support for this idea of what's going on here. But I think, you know, I think we're long here at least to the weekly pivot, which is almost $11, $10 and 80 cents or so. But honestly, you know, I believe we break out and we, you know,

we continue to break on up here going toward that all-time high. So I really like the setup on it. If we jump into the daily, the daily itself has bullish divergence from back here on April 13th to that swing low. Again, kind of like Bitcoin. You see that the S1 pivot here on the daily is holding a support. You just wicked on down through it. Here we go and rallying up right now. That doesn't we're probably, I would think we'd probably get a rejection here right around this area and pull back first and then break out. But again, ultimately I think, you know, we look up at least

to that $10, 80 cent area that weekly pivot and likely much higher, that. But it just, it looks so beautiful on the weekly. Had to show that. What else do we have here? We have Injective. It's got this wedge thing going on here. We have a throw under of the wedge. We've got a strong rally up off that. Again, this is the weekly chart.

So, you know, we should cross through the weekly pivot and the descending resistance around the same time. Um, and if we can do that impulsively and close above it, that should indicate that the low is in, uh, you know, locally, we've got the, basically a $40 target and a $46 and 85 cent target. Uh, but really, especially if we're getting up there. We should probably be looking minimally up here around $107 based on the height of this pullback here. So,

you know, this is a great setup. I think again, right here, you just need to get that breakout through there and see some follow through should really kind of set us up. What else do I got here? I've got,

I've got ENS Ethereum Ethereum Name Service or something like that, I believe it is. Who cares what it's called? That's right. Who cares what it does? Just look at the charts. Isn't that coin that distributes cigarettes to children, right? There you go. There you go. It's all right. I'm not buying it right now. I've got this swing high and this swing low in the form of a channel here because the EQ works really good here as support and resistance. So we've kind of pulled back to the daily pivot here. So if we can get a break back out above this EQ, I think we're looking up here around $37.60 getting up there. And that would be the target that I would have for now. That kind of gets us right as well as this support over here.

Ultimately, though, this is just one big accumulation range here. Or you can even just look at here if you wanted to. You can jump here and just draw something like this real quick. And there's your, you know, there's accumulation right there. Yeah. Nice jump across the Creek, back up the edge of the Creek rallies, back up distribution, back down here into reaccum, or into accumulation again. And, you know, so it's just, it's a, it's really a beautiful kind of move support and resistance pulls back to. So it's really clean movement. I like it. So again, just looking for that rally up and breakout above that EQ there to kind of get us going up toward a $37 up there.

Let me see here. We got Maker. Maker is something we've talked about a few times. We got this nice, great rally. Again, S1 pivot doing the work on the daily. Nice pin bar. You see this a lot. You'll see this in a lot of these charts. So you got that with your spike of volume. Bit of a throw under of the wedge here. Popped up pullback retest. Again, much lower volume than what we had on that spring there.

And then it just shot off up through here. Volume picking up as we've gone through. I think we may be topping out right about now for like a third wave. It looks like a 1, 2, 3 here. If so, looking for a 26, 57, potentially 25, 26 target. And then looking for five waves up to get there at least to 3460 on that. But again, this to me is just the beginning of what would be, you know, what would ultimately be a breakout higher. So, but right now looking for that pullback and then to get that rally up to at least there, it could pop a bit higher, but at least 3460. And then, you know, basically we look for five waves up toward this swing high area.

Then we'll look for three waves back. And, you know, three waves back and then we'll look for five waves up toward this swing high area. Then we'll look for three waves back. And, you know, three waves back, and then we'll look for the breakout higher. So the setup is there. The money's to be made. Just got to believe in yourself and in the chart, I guess, right? Real quick here, VET. VET, I want to start with the weekly just because, man, look at that weekly candle. It is beautiful. Nice, large large bullish engulfing candle almost the same volume as the swing low there

uh we broke back out with that volume and that candle there above the weekly pivot as we can see just getting going on stoke rsi rsi broke out bullishly sitting around neutral now jumping to the daily. We got a little even better again. S1 pivot doing the work. Nice pin bar on it. Rally up, pull back, retest. Again, big volume on the-

Yeah, maybe Bitcoin's going to retrace a little bit here, but slowly and reset, we actually get some altcoin action. Looking at these charts, seems not unlikely. Yeah, yeah. No, but here's the thing also. I think, again, something I've been saying this year is that I think that we're going to kind of see, I don't think we're going to see that full rotation that we're used to seeing every other cycle. You've got all this- There's nobody new here.

Yeah, well, and you've got all this money coming in through the ETFs, right? And that's going to keep driving Bitcoin higher. I mean, hell, we had almost half a billion dollars coming into it yesterday. We had just over a billion dollars coming into it last week. And so I think we see Bitcoin continue to go up. And I think you see the crypto bros kind of just continuing to trade alts. It's just what is the particular, is it going to be memes? Is it going to be whatever? Really, I think you have to be a little bit more selective this time,

but overall I think that's what we get. But again here, you know, same story that we're seeing across a lot of these. You have the pin bar on the S1, big volume, retest, higher low, lower volume successful, leads to a breakout of descending resistance. We've broken out above the pivot. Ultimately want to see this stay above the pivot. If we break down, I expect to see this pivot area hold here on the daily, right there around, what is that, 20, 29 cents or so,

before we break out higher. But, again, looking pretty good at the moment here. We did get a pullback of just around 70.5%, which is my favorite retr retracement level it's that institutional level and um works out really well there so we'll see if we can get that pull back here and then break out higher or if we'll just kind of you know what happened with bitcoin here leading into this uh the last few days with the continued rally was that the 15 minute and the one hour kept resetting so your four four hour stayed kind of high, your daily stayed high, but your very small timeframes,

your 15, your 15 minute, one hour just kept resetting, which was what kept pushing it higher. So we could still see that on these as well. Um, but when we can see that rejection, you know, we would look for that target there at that, you know, pivot area and then look for the breakout higher. And finally- I'm sitting here obsessing over the Adam chart now on my side. The Adam chart's awesome, man. I love it. I love it. It's one of my favorite charts.

It's so clean. Long time ago. I have ADHD, so I get distracted. I'm watching what you're saying, but also charting Adam myself. Go ahead. It's fine. Yeah, Rose, we talked about this one a few times as well. Again, we had some accumulation here. And we had our jump across the creek and our back up the edge of the creek here. We're doing our thing. Looks like we're do that, impulsive breakout and close above that.

Local targets, 15.8 cents, 18.53 cents, and even up here at around 32.93 cents, especially once we can get that breakout there. So really kind of watching rows here to see how that plays out. That did have that bearish divergence here, which sent it down. As you can see, we have the lower lows here on RSI, higher lows in price, sent it down. But there's that range holding support here, right here where you've got all these wicks. You got these big candles overlapping. I mean, that's classic where you would look for support. And we got that rallying back up. So we've been talking for a few weeks now about alts potentially being in

a little bit further down and then in, but really saying start paying attention. And I hope people were because it's been some great opportunities here to get in. And these are just some of them. So many of them look the same way. So, yeah.

Yeah, I mean mean they all look like they're ready to explode but I think we're getting a little pullback and then everything is going to rip that's what I see when I look at most of these what do I know a little bit of patience right just don't get in there real tight stop loss and you know and then get all upset

that it hits that stop loss well guys you can get more of this by following TX West Capital, joining him and Fibbo Swanee over there. Guess he's on that side with the comments. Guys, they provide just great, great information. So highly, highly recommend that you participate there and follow and join. That's all I think we got today, right?

I think that's enough, right? That's more than enough. That's enough alpha for a month. So I think I think you nailed it. All right, guys. Thank you so much. See you on spaces and then back here tomorrow. Peace.

Bye.