The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin SLIDES To $62K As Saylor Skips The Dip (Macro Monday)

Episode Date: July 13, 2026

Bitcoin remains stuck in its multi-month range as investors wait for this week's key U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony, which could determine the next move for both crypto and traditional markets. We also cover South Korea's sharp market selloff and why its housing market could become a bigger macro risk, rising oil prices as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt shipping, and why record-low cash on the sidelines may leave markets more vulnerable if selling accelerates. Finally, we discuss the recent pullback in stablecoin supply and why analysts believe it reflects slowing trading activity rather than the end of the crypto bull market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bitcoin sliding near 62,000 as Sailor skips the dip. Actually, he bought the dip on cash. Not on Bitcoin this week, but adding to his USD reserves up to $3 billion. We've also got a big week ahead at the Fed. And apparently we're back at war in Iran. We get a very special macro Monday today. And by special, I mean, you get just me and Dave. You're going to love it.

Let's go. Good morning. everybody happy macro Monday to those who celebrate. I'm going to give Dave all the time in the world today. Dave, what happened at the morning meeting? Can you please tell me what Anawang and Ira Jersey had to say? Can you tell me what the key thing is and why Bitcoin is going to $10,000 while leading crypto's down? Yeah, no, I can't. I have no interest in it. I mean, look, the most interesting thing today. And it's fascinating is we're back at war in Iran. They're firing at boats. They're doing everything that the oil bulls said would be, would send oil to 150 and beyond,

you know, kind of like Buzz Light Year, Infinity and beyond. We're doing all the things that should, should crush global markets and markets are yawning. I mean, yeah, the NASDAX down a percent. Okay. And Bitcoin's, you know, back at, was it 62-5 or something like that? I mean, that's the same price every hour for a month. It's, yeah, it's not, not much is happening. You know, effectively, it's all a bunch of theater and the only thing that matters. There's one thing that matters, Scott, and I'm going to keep selling this to people until I'm blue in the face. It's that they're printing more dollars.

They're printing more yen. They're printing more euros. And they're printing more remnivy. They're, you know, the only currency that's not getting printed as a Swiss franc. And the Swiss rank, the poor Swiss are like the people in the boat trying to bail as fast as they could to keep their currency from getting too strong. And that's what's going on in the world. And you can look at everything else. You know, I went back this weekend and I did just a stupid little analysis.

And I said, okay, show me since 2000, what's been the performance of housing and the performance of the stock market versus the, quote, performance of M2. And by the way, M2 underestimates the amount of monetary printing. It's only the money in circulation. It doesn't include all the debt that was facilitated slash encouraged by central bank policies. And if you look at that, housing is underperformed M2 and the stock market has outperformed, all of which, by the way, in the last couple of years, by less than a percent. And so you look at this and you say, okay, what's happened? well, you know, your whatever dollar, you know, whatever your dollar loaf of bread is,

or whatever your eggs are, whatever your stock is, whatever your house is, like, oh, my house has gotten worth so much more. It's like, no, my house hasn't gotten worth more. The dollars have gotten worth less. And that is the only effing thing that matters. And so in that world, the real question about as far as crypto is concerned, and you look at it, and Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin over the last few days. days, and there's a reason for that.

And you look at some of the others, and, you know, they're kind of holding in there. Zcash is outperforming. Everything else is underperforming. Where is the value? Where are people looking? Well, the new narrative on Ethereum is it's a safer network, and it'll be quantum resistant faster. And the network and the narrative on Bitcoin is there's a BIP 110 debate, and you posted a great

quote, great thing from Adam back. But, you know, there's some other really good, you know, people talking about this. At the end of the day, what matters isn't, I'm oversimplifying. What matters isn't BIP 110. What matters is the process, because what people really care about isn't spam. People really care about is quantum resistance. And can the Bitcoin network get it shit together to, you know, to defend against quantum? And can they get their shit together to defend against theoretical attacks such as that Duke professor that you you quoted or talked to last man right and I struggled hard on that one I was like he's the Bitcoin bull at Duke

because yeah because he's surrounded by morons well morons is too strong a word they're not dumb that one point out how hard it would be to build a short profitable enough to do that and to buy all that with out the market knowing and minors say but hey whatever It's always worth listening to the other side. Well, it is interesting, and we should, we could talk about that. But the fact of the matter is the whole point of the BIP 110 debate, the reason it scares people out and all of the, it's the same thing from the block wars. And we don't remember what happened after that is can the Bitcoin network prove to be non-suicidal, right? Can people work together and keep the network moving and running?

That's really all that matters. I mean, interesting that like as a corollary to that and I want to use it as the kind of bridge to the next story, which is obviously we have some sailor news. So strategy increase its USD reserves by 450 million. They didn't buy or sell Bitcoin. They used the strategy ATM. So now they're at $3 billion, obviously $843,000. But just because of what you just said, it kind of reminded me of my conversation coming out with Matt Hogan. I'll say, I can't remember he may have said it on the show.

We've done so many conversations. But he said the market just wanted to see that Sailor is not an irrational actor, right? Like that's what that's what was causing all the volatility and fear, uncertainty, and doubt because they didn't know if he would do quote unquote the right thing, you know, as a fiduciary duty to his shareholders because he was kind of buying a little Bitcoin and selling the convert, which they've now admitted was not maybe the best idea. But now that you've taken out the will he buy Bitcoin at all costs, will he be rational? And that's the same thing you're saying, I think, with BIP 110, right?

is like, can the developers get their shit together enough to be rational and protect the network? It's the same argument. And now I think, you can think whatever you want of Sailor, but I think the market is saying, okay, he's out. Like, now we can proceed without Saylor and we don't need to be concerned that he's an irrational actor. I think that is exactly right. I mean, look, my view on strategy will not change. It is that they had, you know, Sailor had an idea.

It was a good idea. I think it's the correct idea that Bitcoin will outperform soft assets. That hard assets will outperform assets linked to the dollar and the dollar only because, frankly, the dollar is a melting ice cube. That said, the notion that you can do things with Bitcoin on a collateral basis is premature. And so, you know, he did the perpetual preferred, which is no different than high yield debt, except that your credit worthiness is based on your belief on the future price of Bitcoin. That's it.

That's what it is. Now, to do that, you need to be able to go through down drafts and periods. And he didn't have the STRC in 2022. If he did, the bottom wouldn't have been 16. The bottom might have been 12. Might have been eight. I don't know. But it would have been lower.

that's absolute fact you know and people don't like hearing it the sailor bills don't like hearing it and the sailor bears who think he's going to sell don't like hearing the fact that if he didn't have to sell everything in 2006 and 22 why the F would you have to sell now

and given that he has years of interest coverage he doesn't and so you get really attached I mean it's two full years now to cover the preface but Scott here's the pot of line. What sells on X? It's tragedy porn, right? You know, it's like, I've literally watched the guy get hit by a bison at, you know, Yellowstone like 75 times. Every time I open it, it's a guy

flying through the air. It's, and so the takes people, unfortunately, it'll never happen, but it would be great if people who have horrendously bad takes actually suffered for those horrendously back but it doesn't happen so you know you get you get the opposite yeah you get the opposite they get the engagement and you know whatever so you know mcgloan seen his his stuff you know rise because of his constant carping but his constant carping is and look i like mike but there is no way there are two sentences that cannot or one sentence that cannot exist in a sane mind And that is that Bitcoin to $10,000 in $26 is a normal reversion. That is simply not true.

That is, it's like saying, you know, well, I normally would be six foot four. The fact that I'm five foot eight is just random. I mean, you know, it's almost as dumb, actually, the dumbest one. We have stronger gravity in 2020. I have a better example. It's the idiot coach Kenny Atkinson and the Cleveland Cavalry. who insisted that based on analytics, they were beating the Knicks in the series that they got swept in. You know, it's like it's the same shit.

Bitcoin at $10,000 in 2026 dollars is like Bitcoin at, I don't know, $2,000 in 2022 or $203, you know, given how many dollars have been printed and how much stronger the network is, whichever way you want to look at it. So the people who make these predictions are doing it just, you know, irrespective of, any of the factors that matter. I mean, when you're predicting oil, what matters the most? Well, there are two things that matter the most, right, in predicting oil price. Prediction number one, what is the cost to produce it?

Prediction input number two, what is the demand and what can people afford? That's what you have to care about with oil, right? Well, when the price of oil to produce it hasn't moved in, you know, actually it's gone down, if anything, over the last 25 years, right? Despite monetary inflation being somewhere, you know, depending on how you measure it, you know, being on average 6% per year for 25 years, and you do the math on that,

then you understand that technology has been deflationary to oil price. And so, yes, you can, you can look at that and that's important. But at the same time, there is no such factor with either gold or Bitcoin. And so understanding why gold is outperformed oil, by definition, it's the denominator of money. So when you look at a chart and say, well, the chart is looking based on what it used to do versus what it is now, well, it's fundamentally different now, not because this time is different, but because the denominator, the thing that you use to value it has changed. And so I will look at all these predictions as bullshit until somebody owns and normalized. is based on, you can do it on M2, it'll be close enough for government work, right?

It's, as I said, it underestimates the effect, but it's reasonable. But until you do that on a pure monetary asset, your charts are useless. They're not showing you anything in terms of magnitude. The direction, sure, you know, there are lots of good reasons why technical is good direction. So you ask about the morning meeting, it's that. You know, now, why is this matter? Why am I going on this rant this morning, Scott? It's because this is literally exactly core sailor.

His image of strategy, why it matters, is a melting ice cube of dollars. The fact that he has to champion dollars now is because the market has told him, you have this debt instrument, you need to prove that you have the ability to raise dollars. And so talking to my friend, Mike, you know him as grain of salt. And grain of salt talks about, you know, strategy. Well, what does he care about? Well, the market cares about two things. one, what's going to be the value of their Bitcoin Reserve?

And two, does he have access to capital markets? And all the doomsayers, Scott, every one of them assumed he had no access to capital markets and if he sold his Bitcoin, Bitcoin will plummet like a rock. What do we learn the last two weeks? We've learned that he could sell Bitcoin and the price could rise. Right, go up. Yeah, and he's not fine. And we learned that he could access capital markets without touching Bitcoin and, you know,

raise cash if he needs to. Basically, what he's done in the last two weeks is disproven the entirety of the mega bear case of the disastrous circle, you know, the flush down the drain, you know, the circle. I do actually wonder why, I mean, I don't really, but because I'm not in the border. But I wouldn't have been surprised to see them do nothing this week. Yeah, I think that this was. Screaming narrative right now that he's diluting MSTR shareholders. and that's one of the huge things that was pissing people off.

And he definitely just did that without adding any Bitcoin, right? So there's no question that what he did this week is reducing their Bitcoin for share. Right. So I guess he doesn't care of people say, I get why he wants to have more cash. But it felt like that, you know, $2.6 billion is not that different than $3 billion. And he could have just kind of done nothing. Look, I'm not in the boardroom. In fact, they probably should put someone like me in the boardroom to help them with their trading

strategies, but that I'm not there. But I will say this. If I was sitting there and having a conversation, I would have said, well, it's the summer. What is the, what is the narrative that's running against the stock and running against Bitcoin right now? Well, the narrative is you're going to be forced to sell and you will have no access to capital markets. And proving that he still has access to capital markets is a good thing because he's literally knocked out. It's like, you know, You can't argue. If the metaphor of you're building a bridge to prove that the micro-trategy is going to die and going to bring Bitcoin down with it, then he basically took out the two pegs that are holding the bridge, you know, up in place.

And so anyone who walks on that bridge now is going to fall into the chasm. Because the reality is there's no need for him to sell any more Bitcoin. And he has no issue with raising money if he needs to raise money right now. meaning that to even talk about a death spiral of strategy selling Bitcoin and selling its stock, at this instant, makes no sense. Now, Bitcoin drops to 20,000? Okay. Yeah, maybe it will be a disaster.

If the Bitcoin network collapses upon itself and fails completely, sure. You know, then it could become an accelerant. But by having $3 billion in cash, what he did is he basically said, listen, we've taken the accelerant and we moved it out of the building that might catch on fire because we're, you know, we don't want to be the one to cause it to die. If Bitcoin's going to die because of some stupid exogenous reason, sure, you know, we can't do anything about that. But if Bitcoin is going to survive, it's not going to be us that damages it. And for the next year, year and a half, they just did that. Yeah, totally agree. The other big narrative this week

that's worth touching on since we'll have a bit of a shortened show today, obviously. Will Kevin offer any clues on Fed rate outbook. I'll go ahead and outright say no. But I mean, just so people know what is coming this week, we have Fed Waller's speech today. We have Worse testimony to a House committee tomorrow. We have core inflation tomorrow. We have PPI Wednesday. And then we have Fed chairwors testimony in front of the Senate committee on Wednesday. And then retail sales on Thursday. So for those who are paying attention and watching what the Fed does, they're going to have a whole lot of ammo this week? Nothing's changed.

Yeah, he's not going to talk. For those who haven't watched this show before, you talk a lot, you say a lot, but what you're doing in the background is you're priming the pump on markets. Like, markets are doing well. They're not going to inject liquidity or do anything until one of two things happens,

until we're right at the run-up to the midterms and they want to start pushing the economic data. That's in two months. You know, that's basically end of August, beginning of September. But until then, unless the stock market does something negative, they're not going to do a damn thing. We all know what's happening here. You know, the Fed is in a box. There's no question they're in a box.

Warsh knows they're in a box. And the goal here is going to be to encourage investment in America because that's what the entire goal of this policy is. and how do they do that? Well, they need to lower rates, but they need to lower not overnight rates. They need to lower the rates at which business invests it, which means they're targeting, I don't know if it's the seven year or the 10 year,

somewhere on the curve, but it but it ain't overnight. Now overnight is a tool for that as are other things that they have in their toolbox. And the other big question is the Fed balance sheet. Warsh personally feels like you and I do, which is, they shouldn't have it. It was a terrible idea. It did bad things. It caused monetary inflation. It caused

capital to go over labor and it caused investment to flow out of the United States into other places. These are all bad things that we want to reverse. But at the end of the day, if you reversed it now, it's sort of like what happens if you take away heroin to a heroin addict without giving them something else. They die. And the one thing that you don't do, if you don't do, if, you're given stewardship over a patient who is a heroin addict is making gold cold turkey. And that is a situation that washes in. Call it whatever it is. We are addicted to debt.

You want a sound bite for the week? The United States, the entire industrialized world is addicted to debt and free and cheap money. And that debt and free and cheap money is what's sustaining everything. And the reason we Bitcoin is we understand that eventually, It has to end and hard assets are going to matter. But does that mean it ends today? And the answer is not on my watch if I'm Kevin Warsh. And by the way, Kevin Warsh is probably smarter than me,

but he agrees with you and I on most of these key issues because he's talked about them in the past. So I don't have to guess about it. Scott Besant agrees with you and I. Once again, smarter than I am, but understands what the thesis behind Bitcoin is and has articulated it fairly well. understand the thesis behind sound money.

But he, once again, is a steward of a country that has spent 40 years hollowing out its industrial base and doesn't produce shit and just finances shit. So they need to guide that transition. And the sole thing they can do to do that, the most important thing is to encourage business investment in new infrastructure. Now, the good news for them is we're in the middle of this AI boom. And AI is changing the way all business investment is happening. but it's not the magic wand that people think it is.

I mean, I know people, there are some people out there who think it's bullshit and it's overblown and it's a bubble. They're dumb. And there's others who think that you're going to flip a switch and every company is going to immediately automate everything and replace their staff with a bunch of robots. And they're dumb. The reality is in the middle. And depending on which country, which type of business you're in, you're going to have

new investment that's going to make yourselves more productive and more capital efficient and, you know, et cetera, et cetera. and new jobs come out of it and other things happen. It's a very complicated subject. But what is absolutely true is that business investment at a time of a rapidly escalating technology is hyperproductive. And so their job is to encourage investment. So what does that mean for your assets?

Well, it means that they know they cannot cut the liquidity spigot now. It would be disastrous to do so. And so, yeah, they're going to talk to the Congress people and say, yeah, we worry about the price of a loaf of bread. we worry about the price of eggs and all this stuff. And in his testimony, he's going to be bland and Pablam and, you know, we're data dependent and all the same stuff that got him elected. And it'll probably cause the market to sell off because people have irrational expectations. But the truth is nothing's changed.

Those two dissent and wars are working together to try to encourage business investment in the United States in as benign a manner as possible without triggering a round of inflation expectations. Sorry for the rant, but that's the only thing I think about of this. I mean, Jordy Visser articulated this way better than I can when we spoke, but he sort of made the point that this AI, you know, the AI infrastructure boom is going to require so much debt and already does that there's money printing liquidity and stimulus happening with these private companies beyond even what the government is doing. And you look at these projections like $7 trillion by 2030 just to build the infrastructure.

That's all debt too, right? As I said, M2 is a shit measure because it doesn't include all the debt creation that it has happened and is going to happen. And Jordy Visser's right. I agree with them completely. In fact, that is a large part of why I believe what I believe, which is that monetary assets will outperform. I mean, I find it amusing.

I mean, not to pick on Mike when he's not here, that I'm more of a gold and silver bull than he is. But the reason is because you can't make more of it. It's what's in the earth's crust. It's the same stuff. And, you know, you look at silver and yeah, okay, you know, we're sitting where are we, 58 and a half. I mean, whatever, we're below 60.

The days of $20 to $30 silver, based on Mike's charts, we should read back down to 20 or 30. The bubbles pop, boom, there's no speculative interest whatsoever. Well, I don't know about sale or buying. we might have been. What'd you say? So without sale or buying, we might have been in the 40s. I'm talking about silver. Oh, silver. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, look, silver and Bitcoin, I, that on this show, silver and Bitcoin would become more correlated over this. Yeah. I said it earlier, you know, in January or something. And by the way, the fact that the prices are

similar and you could confuse them. Yeah. Isn't, is not remarkably surprising. I think they will be correlated for a while because there's a similar thing. I mean, Bitcoin is a monetary thesis and silver is an industrial thesis, but it doesn't matter. You can't make more of it. I mean, you've just got to pull it out of the ground, and we only have limited capacity. But the point on all of this stuff is about credibility. And people, you know, look, we have a market of narratives. It's just that that's what we have, right?

You know, it's like if Jordy is right, and I think he is, then explain how some of the sectors that have been worse performing over the last month are infrastructure companies that not the ones that have to make money based upon people using AI, but the ones that make money by providing that infrastructure and have and have pulled position for monetizing that $7 trillion in infrastructure. Those companies have been doing terribly over the last two months, right? Explain the rationality of that because here's the question that nobody wants to ask is, is that money going to happen? Are people going to make these investments? And the answer to that is almost certainly yes. The harder question is, will OpenAI, XAI, Anthropic make the money that the private market is valuing them at? The answer to that is much more complicated.

Right. 100%. And the acceleration of the model, we were just joking about it before the show. It's like every day I turn on either chat cheap into your Claude and there's 17 new models that I don't know what to do with. Well, I mean, look, you know, I'm not a power user right now because I've been, frankly, on vacation.

I don't think I know what being a power user means. But you know what I mean. I mean, I haven't, I have not gotten into their Claude programming, et cetera. I mean, you know, Ian was showing me a coin route, they built their own AI model to do help desk and production support, not using open source models and building using their own hardware. Yeah. And by the way, that is unbelievably efficient.

I mean, comparing that to what Zendesk was a year ago, you know, or any of the other help tools, I mean, it's orders of magnitude more efficient, right? It really is. I mean, you could program, in fact, they did a Mandarin version of a help desk. And it actually works. I need that. I mean, you know, things like that are amazingly helpful for businesses. What is not helpful for businesses is doubling their IT expense because of, you know, having to have this model and that model and et cetera, et cetera, and having it not quite work.

So you still have to have the engineers to make it work. And people don't understand that a lot of the stuff around the edges isn't so easy. But they'll figure it out. agree well this is going to be the shortest macro monday ever because i got to catch a flight uh so that's why you get dave and i ranting for 30 minutes so dave thank you i will not see you on crypto town hall but i assume you'll be there today i will do that where are you off to is this vacation yeah just one day for for work yeah nothing nothing major i'll be back tomorrow okay okay and that's all we got so uh we missed mike james the ghost of James, but next week we'll be back. Mike, Mike just takes every year for those

who don't know. It takes two weeks off every year, turns off his phone, doesn't look at markets, which I highly recommend around this time of year for everybody, by the way. Yeah, I more or less did that over the last two weeks. I've looked, I've been, I blinked at it, but that's about it. That's great. I don't want to talk about poker right now. We're talking about that next time. Thank you, Dave. Thank you, everybody. We'll see you tomorrow. Bye.