The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin & Stocks Crash, Gold Hits Record: How April 2 Tariffs Could Shake Crypto! | Macro Monday

Episode Date: March 31, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► 🔥 LBANK Exchange - No KYC Required! Claim up to 50% trading bonus! Join today & get rewarded! Start trading to claim up to 50% in trading bonuses!! 👉https://www.lbank.com/activity/ScottMelker-Cashback?icode=4M3HD ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The Trump-named Liberation Day for tariffs is coming on April 2nd this week, and markets seem to be holding their breath. As we know, markets hate uncertainty, and we have uncertainty in spades right now as to what the direction will be. What will it mean for our beloved assets, stocks, crypto, Bitcoin itself, and what is likely coming? We've got the best panel on this planet of Earth, Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and James Lavish

to discuss right now on Macro Monday. Let's go. Let's go. What is up everybody? I'm Scott Melker also known as the wolf of all streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel hit that like button for our three amazing guests here. Well, James just disappeared, but I'm assuming that he will be there is look, we got him. We got everybody here. And Mike, let's just start with the morning meeting, man,

because there is a lot to talk about this week in macro. Yeah, I really appreciate Ana's comments because she did work on the Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. And she pointed out in 2006, she was focusing on tariffs. And she pointed out when she first started, when they first started, tariffs were 1.5%. Trump moved them up to 3% on average US tariffs. And she pointed out when she first started, when they first started, tariffs were 1.5%. Trump moved them up to 3% on average US tariffs.

Now they're around 4.5%. And her view is they're going to go up to 10% to 15% by the end of the year. And she sees a lot of downside risks in the S&P 500 to the due to tariffs. So she addressed potential Fed put and Trump put. And she doesn't think they're going to be until another 20% or 30% in the stock market. And for a Trump put, and she doesn't think they're going to be until another 20 or 30 percent in the stock market.

And for a Trump put, she said you basically just need to see manufacturing payroll start to plummet. So overall, she expects a payroll number this week to be decent, 200,000, 4.2 percent to kick up, and doesn't really expect data weakness to kick in until the fourth quarter of this year, the week data. And she sees sentiment negative, pretty negative that way. Chris Crane, our technical guy, pointed out one thing that's really happening is we're seeing downward estimate revisions in earnings in 22 out of 26 industry groups. That's pretty serious.

And it's been one of the, in 20 years, one of the best years for low vow and worst years for momentum, and as he the, in 20 years, one of the best years for low vow and worst years for momentum. And as he pointed out in 20 years. So pretty significant shifts in sentiment in market stuff from the morning meeting. We have a bit of a interesting situation at the moment. I was gonna bring it up, but I gotta share the screen better. But we have futures pretty massively down right now.

This article now coming right on CNBC. Dow futures dropped 300 points. The jittery Wall Street races for Trump's tariff rollout. Right now, the S&P futures are down over 1%. NASDAQ futures down 1.5%. Bitcoin's up since this morning when this started happening. It's Bitcoin's down about 2% from the same mark. You have to mark them Friday. So I bet right now it's down about 2%. OK, it's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not.

It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not.

It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not.

It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. It's not. And nobody really knows what to expect because it changes on a day-to-day basis. I mean, James, what do you think? Is this kind of a moment? Yeah. Well, I mean, it may give us a little bit of clarity, but look, we've seen Trump in this role before.

It's just right now he just seems unyielding. And what is he going to do on April 2nd? Like, does he really lower the boom? And, and, uh, or is it just a starting point of negotiations and more uncertainty for for weeks and weeks? It's possible we get either or. So the market is starting to price in more uncertainty. That's it. Simple as that. And just like, you know, Mike said, tariff uncertainty means that you have

margin uncertainty, which means that you have, you know, like, I think the big, one of the biggest problems that the U.S. market is seeing is that if you can't, you can't have capital investment in these companies unless you have clarity on what's going to happen with that capital investment. If you hold off on that, that just pushes out earnings. So that's So that's one of the big problems. Dave? I think that the real question, and there's a bunch of themes through this, is will financialization come to an end and asset prices will go down at the same time as consumer prices going up, which is what happened when the stimulus checks were given out to people, et cetera.

They saw it, they looked into the abyss, and all the people on both parties and policymakers said this is an absolute disaster. We can't allow this to happen. Why do I say this? Because gold, at this price, where we are 3100 or so, more or less is slightly outperforming the CPI, but pretty close, but still over the last few decades, dramatically underperforming assets. And so the question really is, will that unwind? Unwinding that has massive implications that are negative.

And I honestly just don't think they're going to let that happen. It's really that straightforward. Because what does that mean? What does that look like? What that looks like, financial assets, not just stocks, but all financial assets going down, banks going back to 10% of the S&P financials as

opposed to 30 some odd percent, et cetera. It has very, very big implications. So when you look at this, that's what you need to understand or discuss. And the next question is, because all the Bitcoiners in the world think that that's exactly what should happen, but instead of the beneficiary being gold, the beneficiary should be Bitcoin. That's the Bitcoin eats the financial sector narrative, which James and I kind of roll our eyeballs at when the Bitcoiners talk about it, thinking that, well, maybe, but a lot of things have to happen along the way to get there. And so you have to look at what is actually going on.

And what is actually going on is you have an administration that Mike has correctly pointed out wants to reboot American manufacturing, full stop, that is willing to take consumer pain in order to do it full stop. Do they want to change anything else? Absolutely not. So the question is, can they navigate it? And can mark will markets let them navigate it? And, you know, I don't like words, I never liked the words bond vigilantes, I don't like anything market vigilantes,

like markets do what markets do. And so if the markets tell them, listen, you keep doing this, and we're going to keep dropping, and you're going to be out of power in 15 or 16 months, then they're gonna stop. And that's what they're worrying about. And so, you saw a couple of weeks ago, you could measure for whatever mark you were. Every time we get in Bitcoin around these levels,

there's buyers. Now, because there's buyers, because the same people who believe that Bitcoin is a better version or will be a better version of gold globally are the ones who are sitting here buying. And that's why you can say it's trading with risk assets and it is trading with risk assets to a point. But the bid has been here.

We were talking three weeks ago at Bitcoin was $4,000 cheaper than we are today. And we did it two weeks in a row. So it's important to understand. Now at the same time, crypto ex Bitcoin is getting hammered. And crypto ex Bitcoin is trading with beta to the downside of the NASDAQ. I mean, the S&P, the Bitcoin beta has vanished, but that's not surprising because it really never made any sense.

But when you look at Solana and Chainlink and all of the stuff that people say, oh, these are good cryptos, forget the crap. The beta is certainly every tick down in the Nasdaq is multiple ticks down in those things. And we have seen that over the last week, but that's because it should trade differently. So Bitcoin dominance, I was looking this morning, I didn't see your measure of it, Scott, but I'm gonna bet it's

pretty damn high. X stable coins. I think it's 62. I think it had just made a new cycle high once again. Right. And that makes sense because they're not, yes, they trade together in a sense because the crypto community has been selling Bitcoin and basically selling whatever they can because there are people who are panicking and that happens.

But the great washing machine, I keep calling it, of people who look like us, either thinning hair, no hair, gray beards, whatever, we're the ones buying, we're the ones buying, not buying Ethereum, not buying altcoins, buying Bitcoin. And that is clearly what's been going on. And so we see it. So as a macro show,

we need to understand what are the macro things. So that all matters. It's also worth pointing out over the last week that the battle lines are very very clear In what is a seismic battle in the regulatory space in stable coins You know why and why do I mention that in a macro show? Well, because the seismic battle is should fractional reserve banking be supported by government regulations and to protect them from competition It is no less than that Kirsten Gillibrand said the quiet part out loud over the weekend.

It's like, well, I don't know if we let yields on stablecoin to it gets eerily similar and you can look it's exactly the same thing when the money market funds came out earlier. Why does this matter? Because at the time money market funds came out there was genuine fear that the only way people could get mortgages and small businesses could get loans from their savings and loans were from banks, because that's where all capital was pooled. We have this thing called the internet, and it's changed the ability to source funds rather dramatically. This matters because if stable coins are allowed to give yield, which of course they should

be, otherwise you're hurting consumers, then you're going to see a move away from a risky fractional reserve banking system towards a system that is more fully collateralized with using the speed of information that we have on the internet. And that seismic shift will have huge implications to macro assets as well. So I just think it's worth talking about, but I think we should probably start today as I said before. James, you were talking about the basis trade this weekend. I think you should explain that too because that's a very big deal. I have that up here. Go ahead.

Yeah. So the basis trade, people started talking about last week about how Brookings Institution, the Institute was, Institution, I guess it's called, was looking at ways to, for the Fed to prepare itself and have tools to deal with a sharp sell-off like we saw, and, you know, like a rate spike like we saw back in 2019, when we've discussed this before, when there was a liquidity crunch for dollars, and, and the Treasury market was hit hard, and the overnight repo rate spiked, I believe was up over 7%, Dave, in one night, it was crazy. And so the Fed had to come in and rescue the, the bond market, the Treasury market, and they did that through straight QE. And that's that little bump you always see in that QE line of the Fed assets, the assets that are on the Fed's books. It started rising. It was, it was decreasing, decreasing, decreasing all the way into 2019 fall and then it started and there was a bump where it started rising before 2020, before the lockdowns, before we had that massive liquidity. It's because of the repo

spike and what had happened is there was there was a liquidity problem. So the basis trade is where hedge funds will go long US treasuries and then they'll short the futures, a similar Treasury duration against it. And there's a little bit of, there's a little bit of arbitrage there, you know, maybe 5 to 20 basis points, whatever it may be, at the absolute most. It's usually just, it's a few basis points. It's not a lot. And so what they do, though, is they'll borrow heavily in the repo market to do it. They'll buy the treasury and then borrow against it in the repo market in order to create this trade. And it's a tiny little spread. And then so what does that mean? Well, it means that in order for them to really make it worth their while and make profit on it, they have to lever it. And so they're levering these things 10, 20, 50x, you know, 50 times. And that leverage is what's dangerous. Okay, why does it all matter? It all matters because if you have another repo

spike, like we saw, this trade could blow up and there would be massive unwind of these trades and a massive hit to the repo market, which means that there would be another spike in the repo rates and there would be illiquidity in ultimately the treasury market. And this scares the bejesus out of the Fed and the treasury. And so much so that the Brookings Institution is looking at ways for them to mitigate this risk. And one of the ways

they're talking about, and the most insane thing that I think I've ever heard in my financial life, is they're talking about taking these trades right off the hedge fund books and putting on the hedged basis trade themselves. So instead of doing QE, instead of doing straight QE, where they just print money and buy those bonds in the market, they're literally gonna take these trades off the books. Now everybody can say, well, wait, wait, wait, this is the Brookings Institution. This is not the Fed saying this.

And that's true, but the Brookings Institution is really just a research arm of the Fed. I mean, they have done a lot of policy work and both Mike and Dave know this. They've implemented plenty of policy that came out of the Brookings Institute. So this is not something that's isolated. Fed knows about it. And they're quietly looking at ways that they can mitigate this. And this is one of the ways they're talking about, literally taking the trades off the hedge fund books and backstopping it completely and putting it on their own books. And that way, and the Brookings Institutions,

their rationalization of this would be, is that, well, this takes risk off the Fed's books because as these trades move up and down, they're hedged. So it's even better. So, I mean, it's like the epitome of QE, not QE. And this is where our, this is where we are in the, you know in the life cycle of the leveraged system. We are so leveraged and so scared that a

few big hedge funds could blow up and take down the entire market. We're talking about creating a special tool and backstop in order to prevent that. And that's just, in my mind, it's pretty significant. Anyone want to comment on that? I want to point out one thing. I remember in 1998, right before long-term capital management blew up, some of us with real money were able to nail that trade, partly by trading all the money calls and NeuroDollar options, because every single dime, remember the Fed was tightening back then, but these

all money calls, all the money just kept tickling down. I'm like, something's going on here. I remember buying some with customers and they're expiring worthless. And then finally, when we hit, we got 10Xs. And that to me is what I see potential is what James just described. If that's the case, you want to stick with the things I've been looking at and that's long bond futures and gold. And I want to tilt over some of the macro to point in that what Dave even mentioned, if you can just show my screen real quick. The biggest macro I think is it's happening in the US stock market. And I showed that on my screen a little bit. I'll show you.

I showed that on my screen a little bit. I'll show you is when you, anytime you get the, the S&P 500, I'm sorry, the price of gold divided by S&P 500, go above it's 50.5 threshold. I don't know if you can show that, Scott. Okay. We've just did that the last single specific time we really did it in 72 and then 2008. And we started doing it recently,

but we've got distorted by the pandemic and the biggest money pump in history. Now we're doing it again. This big trade here, it's got to stop. If it doesn't stop, there's a problem. And all it's doing is reverting. Also, and the main reason it's doing it is because just the stock market cap to GDP, it's just bottoming or peaking at 2x. I mean, that's only happened a few times in history in different countries. And I want to put that into the shorter term, that's only happened a few times in history in different countries. And I want to put that into the shorter term what's happening. We're seeing Bitcoin roll over at 100,000, at the same time Gold ETFs. We've had outflows from Gold ETFs for four years in a row. That's shifting.

That's pretty darn significant. To me, that's the macro that's kicking in. Is that going to shift? Sure. The number one prerequisite for that is the US stock market has to go up, and it's potentially going down. You know, demand estimate, earnings estimate, reversions are all tilting lower. We just get a normal 20%, 30% correction that gives us a 50%, 60% correction in Bitcoin. Not a big deal, but I want to keep tilting over to what we've talked about Dave mentioned too, Ariel. This to me is one of the most significant things that's happening in cryptos.

One thing about cryptos. One thing about cryptos is they're awesome for trading. Now I don't trade anymore by just watching like, oh, I look at things that would happen like last week. Again, when XRP bumped up against Flippin, the total market cap of Tether for a couple days, that was a sell signal again for all cryptos. It did it again. To me, the next big flipping is when Tether flippings Ether, meaning

it becomes the second most significant crypto in terms of market cap. And that would happen around 1200 in Ether. I don't see what stops Ether or Ethereum from going there. And we see it's a sell rallies market. It's failed at 2000. And we all know it's just part of that massive amount of the keyword I've been changed. I started using this and why I'm still quite really bullish gold. This is only four precious metals, but Bitcoin used to have just one now it has millions of dependence. Now I think Dave's right.

Bitcoin can go up and the rest of them can tilt down, but if Bitcoin goes down, they all go down harder. And to me, that's the key thing that's kicking in in all this market in terms of- That's not true. And it's just unstoppable right now. It's the thing that's just shifted. Also, there's one key trade we pointed out last week. I think this is a short,

because I probably would have been stopped out, copper. If you talk about basis, it's not so much basis. It's just our, this is LME traded copper. It's the widest spread ever. This is CME traded copper versus LME because of risks of LME Copper is equivalent of US copper around four dollars and forty cents a pound and US copper is above five dollars It's never happened and it's because of the risk of tariffs which haven't been Implemented yet on copper and which are still next to the regulatory stage. We've already priced for about 20%

What does that mean? There's a trade there and just a question of if you can put it on before it gets stopped. So I see the tilt all heading that way and I want to see what shifts it. Now, right, here we are Monday morning. Again, we beat up stocks on a Monday morning. But the key thing I want to point out about what's happening here is this is a shift in the post-World War II order. Remember, Mr. Trump did not get elected by the rich people who own property in Stockport. He got elected by the populace, the people who earn wages. If he can come to them in a year or two before the midterms and say, hey, I lowered the price of your mortgage, I lowered the price of gas. By the way, most of them drive F-150 pickup trucks.

I used to have a pickup truck. They care about the price of gas more than they care about the stock market typically. That is win-win. This is what's happening to me. And the main way to get everything to go lower to make the average person in this country who is the most expensive, it's most difficult ever to buy a home to go lower, is part of it is the stock market tilting lower and say, oh, by the way, see all those jobs coming back? This to me is what's happening. And

it's right now just early days. We just have to how do you trade it? So I think I'll end with this. I think the risk asset bear market started on January 20th and is accelerating from 100,000 Bitcoin. Now Bitcoin should outperform all its million of dependents, but it's still I think if I'm right and we're right about certainly me about the SMB 500 just having a normal one third correction, that means 60 to 70 percent for Bitcoin and 90 percent for other cryptos. I think you're discounting Mike and I hear everything you're saying and I've been saying that Bitcoin has been the tip of the risk spear for a long time and it has been. But I think you're discounting just the sheer amount of people who are starting to understand

Bitcoin that it is a better version of gold. And so if you bring that chart back up of gold versus Bitcoin that you had, and this is what's important about this, is that you can see that Bitcoin, if you look at it, if you can just squint your eyes and pull out the volatility, those blow off peaks, okay? And you just imagine a curve line from that left side all the way up to the right side and the curve line of adoption of Bitcoin. It's not, this is, just imagine right through the middle of all of that, okay? So it's not, it's not, you don't have the peaks and you don't have the valleys. It's just a curved line all the way up to the middle. That's the adoption of Bitcoin. And that's people understanding that this has a greater value than gold in many ways. And I hear you that gold can be worn on your on your, your neck and your wrist and your and you've got it, your watches and all that. And it does have some, it absolutely has, you know, use cases and utility. But

Bitcoin does too. And the base layer of Bitcoin has utility that people are starting to understand. And that this adoption is what's giving the floor that you're seeing here. And so when Dave talks about we're seeing a massive amount of buying in the, in the $80,000 level, that's mind-blowing. Because you're talking about massive buying of a, of an asset that's become $1.8 trillion, $1.75 or whatever it is right now. And this is, this is not going away. And so the question is, where is that bottom? And I, here's where you and I greatly differ. Do I expect volatility in this adoption phase to continue? Yes, I fully do. But do I expect volatility of 70% or 80% down from here? No, I do not. I think that's, that's absolutely ludicrous with the amount of people, the number of people who now understand this and will be standing there waiting to take advantage of these, these price movements and the volatility. If you have a 30% or 40%

drop, drawdown in the S&P from here, sure, all bets are off, because that's catastrophic for the entire financial market. We are so financialized that we would go into depression here. So my contention is that they won't even allow that, because they know, and the they is the Fed and the Treasury and it's the money printer because they Know that there's no way that we could pull out of that So my point is part of that is what helps Trump get elected and helps push things out for the midterms the key thing I want to point out is Dave always points out all the time is Leveraged what you're seeing from people like strategy, who Michael strategy and GameStop is they are borrowing and issuing securities and borrowing money to buy more Bitcoin. This is

the essence of the wrong thing to do when you have had massive price appreciation. So that's the key thing I'll point out. I've always said Bitcoin has the final diminishing supply and increasing demand and adoption. Now the point is it's so lever long, it happens if you ignore the rules of human nature and bull markets, maybe it's okay. That's what I think you're doing. You're missing how leverages is and how the wrong example people like him are giving to the rest of the world.

We're buying one asset and leveraging it up. I heard this from one of my friend's sons who was 30 who said, yeah, I've got 80% of my net worth in Ripple. I'm like, that's insane. I mean, good luck. I just remember learning in the trade. My point is we're so over leveraged now, we're deleveraging the system. And I do expect that I think I pointed out, we don't have a Fed put and we have the most

significant fiscal belt tightening ever. What's really pushed up risk assets for the last 10 years? So to me, all that shifting, we've only had a 10% correction. So here's the next test for Bitcoin. The next 10% in the S&P 500. If Bitcoin only goes down 20%, that's a great sign. Okay, so, okay, you go first, James, go ahead. Well, I mean, the whole notion of micro strategy being over levered is just problematic and it's incorrect. Micro strategy currently has $41 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

$41 billion and $7 billion of debt. 7.3 billion, I think it is. Or maybe it's a little bit more or maybe it's a little bit more. Actually, it's a little bit more. They've done more since the end of the year. The notion that they are over levered is just incorrect. This debt is stair-stepped very carefully in both price and time. And so it's not going to all mature at the same day.

It's going to mature years and years out. And so the Bitcoin would have to drop so catastrophically that there would be no buyers left for them to get into a leverage problem. It's just incorrect. And the main reason for that, Mike, is that because of the volatility of the underlying asset, they don't have to pay any yield for that debt. The

only thing that costs them is the volatility in the market, which the market provides for them. That's, that's literally the price of this, of this asset. And that's, that's how they've monetized it. Right. And if you look at GameStop with over $4 billion in cash by unless unless we find out it's actually six now Dave. Right. Because they did $1.3 billion on Friday. Right. So how much Bitcoin will they buy? My guess is not $6 billion. And you know, we'll see. So it's, the part that you said, which is really important about leverage is exactly why we've been bottoming since 70, since we've touched 77 and 78,000 now, and we've been going on it for three weeks. Because there is no leverage in the system on the long side.

There isn't any. Futures are not at a premium. The perpetual swaps have been trading perpetually at cheaper funding rates where they have to get people, they have to pay people or certainly pay less people, less than average, in order to go long. There is no leverage. What we see at tops is exactly the opposite. And that goes on for a while. mean you know when we get these rolling bull markets you see leverage dramatically higher than this I mean dramatically and so yes you're right if I was seeing a lot of leverage

I would agree I would agree with you but the point is we're not now as far as the the idiots who put all their net worth in shitcoins. I mean, look, you can do whatever you're going to do. I mean, I made a tongue in cheek comment to Peter Brandt, who said, okay, XRP, if it can't hold two, is looking really horrible, technically. I made the point about XRP, which is your catalyst for XRP to go higher and not the higher that people are talking about. I mean, Patrick Ben-David is just, his statements are so irresponsible. It's almost hard to fathom. But the catalyst for XRP is if and when there's real adoption on real financing things that have real total addressable market.

It's nice that you can use XRP to help Africa. It's nice that you can use cross border payments in third world countries, but the amount of demand for XRP that that creates is vanishingly small relative to the market cap. Stable coins. And stable coins are the use of that. XRP is not a stable coin anymore because it's not stable. It was- No, I'm just saying that I think that for Bitcoin as well,

there's nothing against XRP, but the cross border payments argument has been usurped by stable coins. Who would ever send something that's volatile and they can send something that's pegged to the dollar, which is what they want. Why do you need a token for something that's highly volatile when you can use a stable coin?

Right, so the use case is and you can use a stable coin? We're right. So it's the use case is is Real if it manifests and if it doesn't manifest it's not real and that is true for most of crypto when it comes to a theory I want to make a point right but Dave really quickly That's something you put one to two percent of your portfolio in because it may be an option, as you would say on its own future adoption, you don't put 80% of your net worth in something that maybe is going to do something maybe one day. And in point of fact, yes, you have gotten crawled inside my head and said, okay, Dave, what are you doing with this stuff? And that's exactly right. And I have a bigger bet on Solana for the same reason, not because of meme coins, but

because it has proven to be a pretty solid technological platform that could be used for trading things. And I know there are people who say the same thing about Aptos. I know people who say the same thing about Tzuyu, et cetera, et cetera. But none of these things are anything more than speculative bets on the internet of value accelerating and the need for those tokens. And whereas Bitcoin is a very different thing, and that's why it matters. Now a word about Ethereum because it needs to be said.

I was pissed at the time, but I kept my politics out of it. I thought that when Ethereum decided to go proof of stake, it was going to get crushed. And I'm not right, I wasn't wrong. I mean, I sold most of my Ethereum for Solana back at the time. It looked bad. And from a trade perspective, who knows how it will be. But long term, here's why. So at the narrative, which is the same narrative as Mike's gold narrative, was that proof of work used tons of electricity and

had no value. And so and so Chris Larson and others were trying to get Bitcoin to change when when Ethereum changed, you know, to proof of stake. But proof of stake essentially is just massive centralization of the chain. And yet proof of work, we now have definitive evidence I don't even you don't even hear Elizabeth Warren talking about it anymore, that Bitcoin mining, proof of work mining can be used to stabilize grids. We've seen it incentivizes production of energy, which would otherwise be unproducible from a monetary point of view, which includes lots of sustainable and renewable energy. It also includes dispersed energy. So you can't build plants in Africa. One of the reasons Africa has huge problems with their water supply and their power is because it's not economical to do big

energy projects there because of the geographic, you know, and topological, topographical, whatever. The topography of the land makes it really hard. But with Bitcoin mining, they're now able to do that. And people are seeing that Bitcoin is back. It's not just backed by energy, it effectively is energy, it translates energy into value. And that is something that matters. So Bitcoin versus Ethereum has a lot farther to go in my point. I mean, Ethereum would need to be adopted by the entire, you know, paid by trad by and be the winning chain. Right? You know, in the whole RWA thing, and it's not entirely clear that's gonna happen.

But yeah, you just made a similar this echoes the point we were talking about, from Mike being all in any coin, not only as you said, are you betting on the adoption of crypto as Internet of Value, you're choosing one of hundreds of them to be the winner in that battle for adoption of as Internet of Value, you're choosing one of hundreds of them to be the winner in that battle for adoption of the Internet of Value. And that is an extremely difficult value proposition. I want to point something out all this bluster about Trump's tariffs and volatility and pain and the stock

market because Mike likes to point out that we should get a much larger reversion. What was the SMP down in the path in the first quarter, two and a half percent, I mean, total from from opening to close. And I brought up the chart of how far Bitcoin is down and how poor poorly it performed. I mean, I keep getting between the screens here. And this was the worst quarter in Bitcoin since 2018 for worst first quarter. And this is supposed to be the good quarter of the four year cycle. Right. And actually, historically, q2, ain't that really that great in

the good years? That's kind of the bad quarter. So we've definitely departed, I think, from the four year cycle, at least in this regard. But Mike, even further evidence, right? So if the S&P is down two and.5, Bitcoin was down 11.6, Ethereum was down 45.7%. Yeah, it's going to 1,000, unfortunately. To me, Ethereum's been great for tacticlinic. So like I said, as an ex-trader, I just like,

oh, man, I'd be trading this or that. And I'm glad I don't, because it takes away your intellectual stimulation and property, and it makes me lose money anyhow. So I just learned that lesson the hard way. But I don't see what stops it from flipping in with tether. And there's a good reason for it. A fundamental good reason is we're all seeing

what's happening with the new Trump administration finding out this technology is awesome for tokenization. Why do we need highly speculative tokens that gone up millions of times and made a lot of people rich? That's the lessons I'm pointing out. We're missing the essence of human nature here. And what's happening is anybody who's buying Bitcoin now is finding out the hard way they have, as Dave loves, I hate to say that you don't like it, but it's leverage beta. It's been trading like leverage beta, and it's doing it more. Maybe it's doing it less so than less to cryptos, but just pointing out it's corrected 30%. S&P5 is corrected 10%. What's the next 10% in S&P500? That's going to be the tell. I think it'll drop another 30% for Bitcoin. Why shouldn't it? It's been doing that way. And we reach parity in ETFs

with gold and Bitcoin ETFs. So to me, it's the key thing that's, it's the rollover now. We're at that early stage of people don't usually get- Let me finish. We're at that early stage of the biggest bull market is most of people who've only been trading for 20 years is just ending. That's US stock market. Since the global, the world is like, all right, we know Trump is great for America, but we don't like the guy. We're out of getting out of America.

We're selling US stocks in every uptake. We're selling the dollar in uptake. It's what you're seeing now. What shifts that? It's going to take lower prices, the low price curve. We're looking for that put. I'd say it's not even close. And that's my point is what's the best leading in Canada and planet? Broad cryptos and Bitcoin may be outperform, but they're all heading lower right now.

What stops that? I just said to me, the trend is just getting started. Go ahead, Dave. All the talk about data misses the actual narrative. So what was Bitcoin up from November 5th to the peak? From November 5th to the peak? It was like almost 50%. Right.

Almost double. Well, no, it was in the 60s, right? I guess it depends on where you are. Yeah. Right. 72. But 110 was the peak. Right.

What did the S&P do from November 5th to its peak? It's its leverage bait on the way up and then a way down. It's less so because it can't go zero Yeah, I mean it looks that way. That's true. I mean, it's just the way it is I mean, it's like a train puts and calls leverage beta beta means that people were buying Bitcoin as a play on the S&P They were buying Bitcoin because Trump wanted is talking about&P. They would buy Bitcoin because Trump wanted, is talking about making a strategic Bitcoin reserve and it was Bitcoin specific news. It's like comparing Bitcoin to the S&P as leverage beta is, if you hedge your portfolio like that, you'd be out of a job. You just can't do it. You can't. They're not the same. It's not people bought the S&P when Trump got elected

said, he's not going to do the adult. He's not going to do all this terror stuff. He's to do this other stuff. And he's going to cut taxes and cut regulation. That's gonna be good for companies. Honestly, the trade there is go along the Russell versus the versus the S&P. But the Russell has not outperformed the S&P. In fact, today, it's down more, right? Yeah, isn't it? Yeah, Russell's down 2%. Why do I say that? The Russell the smaller companies many of which might reshore? haven't been able to do as much on off on shoring and That's where you would expect the growth to be if in fact you read you reboot American manufacturing. So By the way, yeah, just just to be clear

I ran a multi well a very large book at Two Sigma for many years, and we used 15 different forms of beta, we call them factors, to hedge our overall portfolio. I can tell you that size, Russell versus S&P, is very, very important and is incredibly unstable. Beta from individual assets is ludicrously unstable. And that's the reason. The reason I pointed out, no one, I think you were in a camp of a single human being

on the planet that I talked to, who thinks that the reason Bitcoin outperformed the S&P from November 5th into February was because of the leverage beta. Never said that. Everybody I know think- It's because Trump got elected. The world changed on November 5th into February was because of leverage beta. Never said that. Everybody I know think- It's because Trump got elected. The world changed on November 5th.

That's right. So don't, no one's ever said that. No, no, no, no, but what did he do? The point is people bought into it, they leveraged up, and now they're getting stopped out. Well, okay, so here's what did happen. So let's be clear, two things. What did he do and what did people do do what he did is he made Bitcoin?

investible for Institutions it has yet to kick in but he did that he called he got Bitcoin to be called a strategic Reserve asset that matters and every single firm I think that I think that the ETFs made it investable for institutions to be fair. Yes, they did. It's one thing to... Technically, but it took some of the... I'm not disagreeing.

I'm just... I think that's what Dave is saying. That is correctly right. So let's talk about the... No, hold on. Hold on. Let's just finish the point. So he did that.

What did happen, however, were people in crypto went nuts. You're right. They levered on the upside and then they got their assets handed to them and got liquidated. And you were right about that. That liquidation was over on the first liquidation cascade down into below 80. It then has been bouncing around since then ever since quite stably as more and more crypto people selling to pay for their taxes for last year, which is pretty much done now. No rational human being goes into April with tax liabilities that they haven't sold for. So that is what's going on. And so we've had that. And so that's been the fire alarm going off. So we got a fire alarm going off. So now's a great time to let Mike jump in.

Go ahead. That's not fair to me. I love one day brands. It's not fair to me, but I'll point out. He was getting the test at some point during this hour. You're edgy, Meketa is clearly and it's a good point. Tax law, not selling, but tax you pay your taxes, you sell some assets, so it's been happening this time of year. But if I can show my screen, I wanna show that Bitcoin gold ratio, it's heading lower, I think it's gonna go lower. Obviously I was early, might've got stopped out,

but 40 was the peak, it's at 26 now. What stops it from going back to 10? And that part is I'm just overlaying that with the S&P 500 divided by its 200 day moving average, it's just finally broke below it, finally. After you had such a long-stayed period, it's going to have to get cheap. Typically, cheap is 10% below its, or 10 to 20% below its 200-day moving average. It's this way. It's always worked. At least it used to work. The point is we have flipped the switch. This is an inflection point I think we're going to tell our grandkids

about. The election of President Trump and The amount of optimism is going to only go one way. It's always the way it's worked. In fact, he's already thinking about a third term means the guy is getting a little delusional how markets always work with sentiment for a human being who's in power and how great he made crypto. The point is, I think he picked the peak. It was a bit of a Faustian bargain, got him elected, and so far, everything's tilting that way. I'm waiting for signs for the opposite. I look at Ethereum, stay above two grand, I'll see it. Look at Bitcoin, stay above 90 grand,

it'll make points. They don't make sense. Maybe the S&P 500, staying above, it's 200 amperage, 200 day move amperage. Give me that oomph. I'm not seeing it. Maybe gold dropping below three grand. Give me that oomph. Otherwise, I stick with that. I think gold is going to be the best performing assets along with T bonds for quite a long time as we get a normal reversion of highly speculative, excessively priced risk assets. That's where it's tilting. Show me signs of otherwise. Like Dave keeps saying buy a big one. I'm like, okay, show me.

It's a lesson I learned in trading is show me at least get me above resistance starting with Ethereum at two grand. Now it's heading to one grand. I don't see the signs yet. All I see is people selling rallies and the world getting out of the US. I see a sign in the bond market. You can pull this up.

I shared this and this is the chart that everybody loves. It's Bloomberg's chart here. This is significant. What we see here is that we had just a week ago, this was like a 2.5%, 2.3, something like that, right? Cuts, if I remember correctly, Dave and Mike, I think, but over the last week, we now have, this is showing that we have over 3 full cuts in the Fed funds rate going

into December. And so we've basically added a cut in the last few days. Why is that? Well, is it because of tariffs? No. Is it because of uncertainty? Yes. Is it because of worries of stagflation? Yeah, it's because worries that this economy is rolling over and the Fed's gonna have to start dropping the rates pretty soon. And that's the question. And so you're seeing in the bond market now, if you pull up the 10-year, what would that be? Yeah, and this is, this is what's interesting is it's stuck here, 4.2%, right? So let's see that 10-year.

Let's see if it comes down under 4%, Mike, and then let's see what happens with risk assets. That's because the bond market is the tell, in my opinion. And that's where the Trump and Besant put is in the bond market. They want yields lower. I'm not messing with them Right and go they want yields lower exactly they want so they're gonna go lower But the number one way to make lowers needs go lower is a stock market has to give up some of his gains It added 12 trillion dollars of market cap last year the most ever it

Elevated inflation the Fed put is done. Now you pointed out a cut Here's the key thing that's gonna happen. When the Fed actually has to cut, they almost usually don't go 25 base points, as you know how that works. They go 50. They cut a lot because they need to. To me, that's the next big trade.

And it's just what's gonna be the trigger. If we have more stock market drop another 10%, maybe they start thinking about easy, but right now, their put's not there. Yeah, Goldman is really good, Jay. This is what's not there. Yeah, Goldman and Jury's gonna do Jan. This is what's so key. Right here is what you said, Mike, is what's the trigger? Is it a slow grind lower?

Because this was the fastest drop of 10% that we've seen in decades, if not ever, right? It's one of the fastest drops ever from the S&P. It moved down 10% very rapidly. Then it goes down another 10% in the same fashion, what triggered it? And if it's because of some sort of credit event, this V recovery is going to blow your face off. It's going to be so quick.

We had that already. We learned that lesson. We learned the lesson of V V recovery massive liquidity most ever Fiscal monetary and we covered and we got inflation We've already learned the lesson the hard way and now we got prices so high like two times GDP We've never been this high of course some of those who've been around more than a hundred years. We've seen it in Japan We've seen it in us in 1930s We sign seen in China 10 20 years ago and look what's happening

They're all deflating and trying to start all deflating. Japan's recovering a little bit. My point is it's our turn. You think the central bankers at the Fed understand that excess liquidity is problematic? Absolutely. That's why they had to stop easing because they eased. They threw alcohol in the punch bowl when the market was on a rally. They've had to stop easing because they eased. They threw alcohol in the punch bowl when the market was on a rally. They've had to stop easing and they will ease, but the point is get through the first iteration.

The first iteration is what's going to take for the next season. It'd be wonderful if we just stay like this and mine grind lower and have the big stay around 20% and stock market go down easy. That's great, but you should know how it works. Mike, you heard what I wrote about this weekend And I'm not saying I'm right on this. This is my opinion on this. It has a lot of facts in it. But the, the fact that the Fed is even considering or their, their research arm is considering, right, that it's a tacit connection, but you know, they are linked. That they're considering taking this basis trade off books of hedge funds.

It's even a thought in their minds that this is what I'm talking about. That's a backstop. That's QE without QE. So you don't even need- What's about a backstop? The ball has to hit the backstop first. It means the catcher misses it.

Those of us who played baseball, that's my point. You gotta have the market hit that backstop to trigger that. We're not even near that. We're at the point where if the ball's heading that way, the catcher hasn't missed it yet. That's the trade. And it's happening now. And it's down another 1% S&P 500 and probably bounced from there. What do you think? Get the next trade, maybe 20. This is my point. Okay, I hear you. I hear you. I hear you. But here's my point is where do markets go when they turn around and if this does happen

and they do turn around, something happens in the repo market and they turn around and take these trades off the hedge funds books and they don't, they found a way not to pour more liquidity into the market. What happens to the markets? Do they draw down 30% or does that backstop them before that even happens? It's after, that's my point. It's after the 30% back up. First things first, first iteration, drown 30%, then you get the backstop, and then you

recover. We're on the way down right now. And we're not at a backstop stage. Okay. Goldman today said 35% chance of inflation, by the way, and their economists here as that article that I brought up before saying they see now more cuts, which, you know, obviously supports what James was saying before, and we're looking at likely July, September, and November. And what you've seen from Goldman to downward estimate revisions in GDP growth, SMB 500 in earnings. That's a trend that's just getting started. And you're hearing out of Jamie Dimon, you're hearing out of Jamie Dimon warning Trump not to

crush the stock market and the economy with these tariffs. That's what you're hearing on the other side. You're hearing shots over the bow. Exactly. That's what this is. Goldman and JP Morgan are warning the government. They're jawboning. That's right. They're Goldman and JP Morgan are warning the government, their job owning. That's right. Their job owning and warning the government. Hey, you do not want to do this. I'm telling you. And so Trump, you know, that's the question.

Does he blink or not? And April 2nd, it's an indication. Who's not blinking. So, so I want to point one thing out because Mike went on his Bitcoin gold ratio. If you overlaid on that chart, the Bitcoin half rate, you need to understand. Now, you could laugh as much as you want, but the Bitcoin half rate is literally at an all-time high.

It is 5X where it was when the Bitcoin gold ratio was last down at 20 or so. And understand that if gold is backed because if people buy gold because they like it for jewelry as opposed to monetary asset Bitcoin is backed by energy and what it can do in the energy sector and it is non-trivial in the extreme to look at Bitcoin gold ratio without understanding that all the smart money and all the capital investment that's gone on to creating that hashrate. It is absolutely insane to ignore it and yet it you know when you look at technicals it would almost be because remember the Bitcoin price is not elastic to supply whereas with gold if gold mining was up

five times gold what would happen to gold's price we know what would happen. It's elastic to leverage and there massive, it always happens in bull markets. It's elastic to leverage. There's futures, there's options, there's everything. It's just when you get a market that's expended, you don't know how leverage is until it goes down. And it's just started. But I point out, I love the hash rate. Dave, I used that five years ago when I was really bullish. But the world's changed. Now Bitcoin has millions of dependents. Sorry, just a fact. Oh, dependents. I hate this notion. I mean, I just don't think they're taking any volume.

Most of the money that's gone into Bitcoin over the last year from people who actually wouldn't put, would basically rather chop off a body part than buy one of those, and buy something on Pumped.Fun. So it's not dependent. It is, and what happens is crypto people. And in case you're wondering Dave, crypto trading volumes plunge 70%. So that's my point is the bear market started. The ETF outflows and inflows have turned to outflows.

The ETFs in terms of market cap reached parity with gold on a risk adjusted basis. No, no, no, no, no, no. Let me finish. It did not turn outflows. It's not true. They've been outflows for the last two months. a market cap reach parity with gold on a risk adjusted basis. No, no, no, no, no. Let me finish. It did not turn outflows. It's not true. They didn't outflow for the last two months.

I'm sorry, my data and the terminal might be wrong. Ten days, last ten days they were out, but actually even. I'm looking at for two months, but they did reach period. The point is the lessons you've learned in commodities. Yes, I get the adoption and everything, but people, I remember hearing this in gold and 20 years ago from the hucksters trying to push gold and people like, no, I want the stock market. Sorry, I got earnings.

Same thing's going to happen in Bitcoin. It's already happening. You get caught in your little wedge of area. You think everybody's most people are like, yeah, great, but where's my earnings? And the point is the people who bought into it are finding out that if they had bought gold, right now they're doing much better on a 2025 2025 basis if this continues they will continue doing what's happening Selling Bitcoin and buying gold. That's what's happening now Yeah, it's not true

It is true. I showed it there's out to out flows for three months in the high four years I'll flow was look we have Scott and I have and James we have the ability to understand and talk to the ETF providers we know that the basis trade unraveled okay that the inflows if you took out the basis trade on both the up and the down what you would see is pretty consistent ever increasing adoption with a little bit of volatility you wouldn't have seen the whoosh and the down and the this. I mean, that's something that you have to do. You have the ability to look at data and normalize what's actually happening. You have to look at it that way.

There is no basis trade with gold. So it's not relevant. Now as far as gold ETFs outperform Bitcoin, yeah, I'm sure there's some adjustment and that's fine. People are generally wrong. It's like I made the comment today or over the weekend that skiing and Investing are very similar in skiing. The first thing you're told by the instructor is your body and your brain wants to do the wrong thing So when you start feeling yourself getting out of control Your body your brain wants you to sit backwards or pull back and when you do that you fall And investing when you're feeling the most gut wrenching need to sell. That's generally when you're panicking, puking and generally you want to

buy it is literally the same. And I'm telling you, that's what you're seeing now. Yeah, I tend to agree with that, Mike, I would consider the stake bet on $1,000 Ethereum personally. But it doesn't Oh, sure. Well, okay, there's gotta be Okay, sure. I have to think I do think it's in the realm of possibility. But I think if you're a betting man, the odds of that are lower than Yeah, I think it's a 26 versus a thousand. It's symmetrical.

Gotta be symmetrical, Scott. Sure. A thousand dollar Ethereum would be absolutely devastating. Yeah, OK, we can consider it from where it was just in 2019 before the biggest money pump in history that's just stored at everything. That's my point is we're reversing all that now. That's the lessons of the lessons of the price of time by Edward Chancellor and the lessons of Jeff Booth, the price of tomorrow are kicking in. Now there is an unlimited supply of an unlimited competition for technically advanced markets that go up. Look at Mag-7. Look what's happening out at China and AI and BYD.

I mean, we talked about this last time. You can't stop that. It's just what happens when you make a lot of money in technology, someone else will replace you. That's what Jeff Puth pointed out, but he did not point out it's this unlimited supply of cryptos that are better than Solana and Ethereum every day. It's just what's happening. The point is they've reached such a high plateau. All we have to do is explore some of the excesses. At least we see Dogecoin is less than $50 billion now. Where is it? $24 billion. I'll be happy when it maybe it's 240,000 market cap, but yeah, and then maybe but the key thing is I'll look at to me the next key signal for where and when to buy Markets will be when we see aetherium flipping with tether And maybe I should say if but I think that's gonna happen that would be a single get markets a little bit beat up

But right now we're in a bear market and we're seeing rallies that are being sold and everything. My point is that's what you're supposed to respect. And the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto index 200 move and it just rolled over. Gold is just ETFs are just starting to roll back upwards. And you're expecting that to stop with this major shift with this new president pointing out tariffs and doing the most significant fiscal tightening we've ever seen. At the same time, we've seen technology kick in and putting pressure on the Mag-7 from China. Yet, I just, to me, I see bear markets getting started and act accordingly. looking through that as longer, longer-term investors and trading versus investing, and that's a good point, you know. Diversification is always good, and it'll help mitigate the downside when you're, when you have short-term view and short-term duration of your trades. The one thing that, though, Mike, that you're, that you failed to point out, or you just did not point out when you mentioned Jeff Booth, is that there's two

sides to that barbell. One side of the barbell is tremendous deflation. And that's caused by, by, by the advances of technology. The other side of that barbell is the need for inflating the money supply to keep up with that because of the debt-laden society that we live in. We are so driven by debt and so overwhelmed by the amount of debt that we have on our books, that we must do something in order to combat all of that deflation that's occurring, meaning things are getting cheaper naturally through technological advance. So what do we do? We print money. We have to print the money to pay down the debt. If you don't, then we go under. That's the problem. We are mathematically, it's mathematically. Well, who cares about Doge? Oh, you mean the commission? You're talking about the Doge commission? Very confusing.

Well, I mean, the amount of fiscal austerity we're seeing in this country is something I've never even thought we'd do. And we're doing it. We just cut the entire Department of Education. Not, Mike, it's $250 billion. We are spending $7 trillion. This is nothing. It's not going to, this is not going to impact it. What is going to impact it? What's going to impact it is the rise in GDP. That's what's going to get us to fiscal. And the estimates are heading towards what, 1.5% now from 2% or 3% last year? All the estimate revisions for GDP are heading downward. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna write about GDP now. But the problem here is that we're talking about nominal versus real GDP. Nominal GDP is going higher.

It's just, it must. There's mathematically, it must. And if you think that it won't, then we have a bigger problem and Bitcoin will be adopted quite rapidly and it'll be pretty ugly. But that is the issue right there. That's the other side of the barbell. You must have monetary expansion. It's, it's written in the code now because of all of the debt

that we have. And I just don't, maybe I'm in the camp that I don't think we're going to be able to have austerity to bring this down enough. It's just, I just don't see it. I can't see the numbers working. The only austerity is inside the Beltway. Inside the Beltway, Doge is trying to take the ill-gotten gains from all the family members. Have you looked at Judge Boesberg's family, wife, aunt, daughter, brothers, sisters, cousins,

all making money from NGOs? Have you seen what's going on? Inside the Beltway, you're getting austerity. Outside of the Washington Beltway, they're not putting anything that matters. All the beltway you're getting austerity. Outside of the Washington beltway, they're not cutting anything that matters. All the money's going to go to the states. It's a tiny fraction. They've even said that it's the deregulation that matters and the fraud. He's trying to cut fraud and social security to extend the benefit and solvency of the trust fund and their fire bombing is dealerships. Why? Because people like the fraud, right?

So there's a fight over that stuff. And there's no austerity. They can't cut anything sizable, right? It's just, it's tiny. Department of Education. Department of Education is inside the beltway. You wanna look at the worst court, you like math, Mike, look at test scores and dollars spent

in the Department of Education. Yeah, it's not even close. Anyway, I know Scott, we're gonna run out of time, so I'm gonna stop. I love it, I don't care. But Dave, I love your rants, because every time you rant, I learn a lot and I appreciate it.

I just like, here's what I see when I started trading JGBs in 1995, Japanese government bonds. And everybody in the US told me, oh, I wanna be JGBs in 1995, Japanese government bonds. And everybody in the US told me, oh, I want to be short on them. They're going to yield. They're going to go up. And what happened? US yields went down.

I see the same thing happen in China right now. They bounced a little bit. I see 1.82 in the Chinese government bond. US 10-year-olds heading that way. All it takes is a normal stock market correction, maybe 30%. Just giving back some of the gains of last year. That's all. And my point is that I think you could be right and wrong at the same time, which is the yield is the yield,

I'm sorry about the beeping. But the stock market, it's lofty levels because of financialization, it is intentional. And that intentionality, if that's a word, is not likely to change. Now, do I think people are over levered? Do I think that we could have a really ugly fall if things come home to roost? Yeah, I do.

But I think that today is going to look a lot more like 2000 than others, which is they sell off in March, found by hated rally that extends into the summer and then sell in the summer because bad shit may happen in the fall, but it will depend on the policies and then sell in the summer because bad shit may happen in the fall but it'll depend on the policies and we'll see I don't want to predict the bad but I do see a relief rally heading into the summer you know when this this period is over I mean I suppose it depends on what happens on April 2nd I have a very hard time believing that he's gonna drop the hammer and destroy our GDP on April 2nd and be able to get away with and do that

I don't know but we'll see I mean to me it's it's a classic drop the hammer and destroy our GDP on April 2nd and be able to get away and do that. I don't know, but we'll see. I mean, to me, it's a classic buy the rumor, sell the news scenario in reverse, but we'll see what happens. Well, Dave said you can be both right and wrong, which means that you, like me, are married. With plenty of dependents, at least it used to be. I think Mike is right on the yield side. I think he's absolutely right on the yield side. I think that's because they want to engineer it that way. And I think you can trade accordingly, right? I think that gold is getting close to the top of its internal range, and a flip from gold into hated long bonds might actually make sense because then you're betting with

it. Yeah, I really thought it was already 100. I don't want to deal with it. Yeah, I think it was last week a couple of weeks ago, but I was like, we go a little bit above 3000. And then, you know, it's like, as Mike said, it's like Bitcoin at 100,000. I think we talked about that at market mavericks, right? Gold at 3000 kind of gets.

Gold's essentially right at these levels, essentially, that you said, second, the US stock market put. And just look at today, it's up about the same stock markets down. And it's not gonna do in a day trade, but it's it's extended, it's rich, it's everybody who's bearish gold, that's a problem. I get it. But right now, if stock market keeps going down, gold can keep going up. Bitcoin's hanging in there.

I'll take it. Guys, that's all we got obviously today. 10.06 AM. I like it. I've seen start canceling spaces and we make this a four hour like a church ceremony on every morning. It would be amazing. That's all we got

for you. Thank you to Dave, James and Mike. As always, incredible, incredible. Dave and Mike, I'm going to be in Miami next week. Oh, good. We got to go out. Yeah. Dave, Dave's muted. Yeah. Well, I'm in New York and Washington next week for two different. First time out of Miami in about about eight weeks. I'm actually coming for UFC and interview Dana White, which is pretty awesome. Believe it or not, quick, quick sneak peek. He's actually involved in crypto now, which will be official when we talk about it. So pretty, pretty crazy.

And that's all I have for you guys today. See you next Monday, but also tomorrow. Later, guys. Thanks.