The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Stuck In Limbo! Here’s Why It’s Struggling To Break Through

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

I am joined by Joshua Frank, the CEO and co-founder of The Tie, a leading information services provider for digital assets, as we try to uncover what is holding Bitcoin back from a breakthrough! Joshua Frank: https://x.com/Joshua_Frank_ Andrew Parish from The Arch Public joins in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  ►►I POST NEW CONTENT ON ROUNDTABLE EVERYDAY!  👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/HIAzSBY ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

It is October, but Bitcoin still seems to be stuck in the mud, getting rejected every time that it tries to go up. It was trading over $64,000 yesterday, now back at $62,400. Where is the October we were promised? Where is the new retail interest? What is it going to take to get Bitcoin and the crypto market out of this stag nation and what is holding it back. I'm going to discuss this and a lot more with one of my favorites, Josh Frank from the Tide. Of course, we have Andrew Parrish from Archpublic on the back half. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button.

I hope that all of you are having a wonderful Tuesday. For those of us in Florida at the moment, not the most wonderful Tuesday. We're hurricane prepping for the second time in a matter of basically two and a half weeks. We're taking in all the family from Tampa and friends and trying to figure out where everybody's going to go and locking things down and you know the usual uh luckily I live a bit inland so hopefully we'll be a bit better but man that storm was having gusts over 200 miles per hour yesterday absolute insanity heading this way so uh keep keep everybody here in your thoughts. It could be really bad depending on where this storm hits. And this could be my last stream of the week, depending on if it hits my internet and my power, obviously. But let's talk about the topic at hand. I'm going to bring on

Josh right now. We have Bitcoin stuck in limbo. I think you'd say crypto stuck in limbo, right? And there's endless theories for why it's struggling to break through. We have all these articles here blaming China, basically saying that Chinese are going to stop their stimulus, therefore Bitcoin can't go up. I would have argued Bitcoin kind of wasn't even going up before we had Chinese stimulus on the docket. So it's just another narrative. I mean, let's dig into what's

happening right now with this market. Yeah. I mean, look, I think Bitcoin is, I mean, I think a good kind of, I don't want to say comparison, that's not the right word, but what I'm hearing from a lot of funds and a lot of folks in the industry is just uncertainty. A lot of funds that are going out and raising capital, they're like, we're really trying to get our first close for raising more capital and before the election, because we don't know what's gonna happen. Right. And I think that's kind of the consensus across the board. And I think that's part of the reason Bitcoin's in a bit of limbo is, you know, actually, you know, I think the reason Bitcoin recovered a bit the last few days is I think that that that the Harris campaign has had a bad few days. But then again,

the Trump campaign also had a bad few days. And before that, the Harris campaign had a bad few days. And before that, the Trump campaign had a bad few days. It's always something, someone having a bad few days. And so I think the market is still uncertain as to what's to come. Also, you know, it looks it looks. Yeah, I mean, you could see obviously Trump is up way higher on polymarket. But keep in mind, one person like market bought three and a half million dollars worth of Trump yesterday. And that like move the odds by like four percent. And, you know, people were like, you know, speculating, like, who was the person that did that. And it's actually interesting to think, does buying... Could you affect the election basically by making big bets on polymarket?

I mean, that's what people are saying. Yeah, I mean, if you're Elon and you're putting so much weight behind Trump, why not just buy $20 million worth of Trump at the money on Polymarket and just seismically shifting the odds? I mean, I don't know. I have no idea what that's going to... Maybe that makes the Harris campaign freak out, and then she starts doing more interviews and kills herself even more, as she did on 60 Minutes, if anybody watched that.

I've only watched clips, but the clips were a bit of a mess. But yeah, I mean, look, I think it's a matter of, look, what is the Fed going to do next month? I think the consensus seems to be 25-bip rate cut. But I think 50-bip rate cut was, I don't want to say it was a surprise, but the market reacted very positively to the 50-bip rate cut. And the majority of economists, even if the market thought it was going to happen, the vast majority of economists did not think it was going to happen. And so I think, you know, I think the market is waiting to see what happens with rates again and what happens with the election. Because I think if polling continues to improve for Trump, and I think it would need to, I think the market will rally a lot going into the election because Trump has thrown a lot.

Obviously, what he's going to do for the industry or not do for the industry comes down to when he's in office because politicians always make promises. But the promises have been very positive. His engagement's been positive. He was at PubKey buying hamburgers with Bitcoin the other day. What'd you say? Sorry. It wasn't the fastest transaction. It wasn't the fastest. We should talk about these things. We should have let him do it on a different chain, not Bitcoin. We should have let him do it USDC on like an L2 or something. But yeah, I mean, look, I think the market's in limbo because the market's waiting to

see what happens. I mean, it's- Yeah. But it's interesting that you talk about the Fed. We got the 50-bit, obviously, rate cut, and now yields are back above what the Fed says. It doesn't make much sense, right? There's so much confusion. You'd think that yields would be diving as things go down, and that has not been what's happened. And just so people see the story I was mentioning, I mean, China has said that they'll hit their economic goals, but it's basically said they're not going to do any more huge stimulus. And that's sort of what was the trigger for the title here. It's struggling to break through. This is a narrative we're seeing because China is not going to do much more stimulus. But I would

argue that Bitcoin is still in its own cycle here. And these things are just temporary noise, right? It may have gone up a little on China stimulus and the 50-bit cut, but we're still just in this range wondering where the new money is going to come from, which I think leads us down another path of what's going to happen with Ethereum and altcoins and all these other narratives if we don't have huge new money coming in somewhere. Yeah. I mean, I think something to point out, this is just about a year of data. Green line is the correlation between the Bitcoin and S&P's daily return. And it has been moving higher and higher over time. And so, you know, look, people always ask, is Bitcoin risk on?

Is it risk off? Right now, it's just moving with the rest of the market. And I imagine I imagine that's going to continue, you know, unless, you know, there's a Trump. I mean, I think the election actually is going to derail that one way or another. I think, look, a Kamala win might just derail Bitcoin temporarily. It all depends as to who she makes SEC commissioner and what happens in her term. But I think people are going to be nervous about the uncertainty. Yeah, I mean, we saw Dan Gallagher floated by the Trump administration. It's funny, at some point, I had read a theoretical take that Dan Gallagher could be the replacement for Gary Gensler if the Democrats win. Right. But he's a former SEC commissioner who is pro crypto and is at Robinhood, a theoretical take that Dan Gallagher could be the replacement for Gary Gensler if the Democrats

win. Right. But he's a former SEC commissioner who is pro crypto and is at Robinhood, obviously begs some questions because Robinhood is under investigation by the SEC that he would be running himself. Right. So I think there's a lot of obviously confusion there. His point that he made is like, they're getting attacked about like, they only have a very few tokens that are listed on their platform. He's like, we tried to do things the right way. We don't have lending. We don't have staking. We're not listing tons of random coins. We've forgone a tremendous amount of revenue as Robinhood. And we're still being attacked, which makes no sense. It's ridiculous. Go after bad players, not us, is the case he's making.

Okay. So we have to talk about this article because it leads us down the road of the next conversation. Ether ETFs see zero flows for second time as Bitcoin ETFs post biggest inflow in six days. Zero. The 93 ETFs in the US registered zero flows in either direction. The second time this is current, zero, zero, zero. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't mean- Where does this fit in the cycle? I mean, that doesn't mean there's zero trading volume to clarify. Of course, it just means it nets out zero, yes. Yeah, look, I mean, I think the challenge is that no one is interested in ETH right now.

And I think one thing that a lot of people forget, you know, ETH obviously is an incredible part of crypto's story and continues to be one of the most used chains for DeFi and other applications. But people forget, and Scott, I'm sure you remember this, but 2017 and 2018, when ETH moved to pretty much the same point it is now, that was all driven by ICOs. People forget this. This kind of blanked out of people's memory. But people needed Ethereum to participate in ICOs. When people were raising $2 billion ICOs, $150 million ICOs, $100 million ICOs, ETH was moving because ETH was a currency that was accepted to participate in the ICO. Then we had DeFi summer and we had tremendous demand for ETH for gas fees to pay for transactions. And we had other use cases. We had NFTs where people

were trying to trade. We had other use cases of ETH. The challenge that exists now is that there's no demand for ETH for transactions or to participate in ICOs. And so there's no natural demand. And on top of that, now ETH has become significantly less expensive to transact on. You have all these layer twos that are pulling out, you know, are pulling demand for ETH. And if you think about it, like if you're thinking about getting exposure to ETH, are you just going to buy ETH or are you going to buy ETH and Optimism and Arbitrum and other L2s? And so the problem is that's really pulling the attention away from Ethereum itself. And on

top of that, which is the thing we talked about very briefly before we came on, you have all of these other L1s and L2s coming to market now. So not only is Solana pulling attention, Avalanche pulling attention, other projects that are already in the market, and Sui recently, and Aptos recently, the move tokens are having kind of their time in the light right now. But you also have Monad launching. You also have Eclipse launching. You also have Movement launching. And so you have a ton of new projects that are also launching, having launches coming up. And I think the challenge is, and this is the challenge that's going to exist broadly in crypto, is how do you get somebody's attention and retain their attention? Because

I'd argue there's only been one project or maybe two projects that have done that. The first being Bitcoin. And the second, you know, Solana, I think has done a good job at retaining attention for now. So the challenge is, though, as more things come to market, it's really difficult. And as, you know, you know, we kind of have this mercenary approach to development that exists in crypto, where basically, whichever chain gives somebody the best incentives to go and build like Ethereum is not giving people incentives to go and build the incentive before was users. But if users are now fractured across other chains, because they're airdrop hunting and they're searching for points

and rewards. Then you have developers that no longer have that incentive and now they're just going to chase, hey, I got a grant by this chain and now I got a grant by this chain and this chain invested in me and I want to be cross-chain. And the challenge is, well, what does that mean for other L1s and Ethereum? And I think it's much more difficult to make the case for Ethereum among institutions as it is to make the case for Bitcoin because the case for Ethereum is just, and I'm not saying Ethereum isn't an amazing technology. I'm not saying it's not a core part of crypto.

I'm not saying there's not usage of Ethereum, right? And people aren't building on top of it, but the narrative is just a lot harder to sell now than it was before. Whereas Bitcoin kind of exists in its own universe because it's Bitcoin. I mean, the use case, and we can obviously talk about that, but it's very different. Yeah, I don't think we need to beat to death the use case. Listen, I've got like, here's a chart. This is SUI, right? And I actually had shared this down here. It's

pulled more than a 2X. But to your point, I mean, this has gone from effectively 46 cents up to over $2 and hit a new high on hype in basically two months, right? We talked about Aptos, another one. These are catching a serious bid as kind of the new L1 competitors. This was down at four bucks. It's trading at nine bucks.

You're talking about in two months, right? So I will say on the plus side, for the first time, we were seeing select things really show like alt season type movement. But it's very select and it seems like the same rotation and lends to the next, I think, natural question that you always have the data and insight on. It's kind of like, I mean, listen, at the time, you can see all of this, right? You can see what's happening on chain. Like, where is the new money going to come from that stops this rotation? Because this is clearly rotation, right? This is the people who believe what you just said about ETH moving into something else, but it's the same money. And it's the people who maybe just saw this suey trade and like, okay, it's at resistance, it's overbought, whatever, moving into the next thing, right? And it's just this game. And it's the people who are sick of trading memes on Solana. So they went to somewhere else, right? Am I wrong? Yeah. I mean, I think there's a couple of things that are worth looking at,

right? The first is how much funding is coming into crypto into projects, which I'll show you. The second is how much funding is coming into crypto into projects, which I'll show you. The second is how much funding is coming into funds. And the third thing is, is there actual applications and usages of crypto that pulls demand in from outside of our existing industry? So let's start with the first point here. So the first point, so here we're looking at the total number of fundraisers over time. And so you can see, actually, there are a lot of fundraisers that are happening in crypto. But the blue line is the total dollar value of those fundraisers. So the total dollar value of those fundraisers has gone down, as well as the average deal size over time. So this means there's more projects raising, but less money going.

There's more deals. There's certainly more deals happening, but there's less money. I think that can be explained in a few different ways. I think one of the ways that explains that is I think people have realized late stage growth investing in crypto is really difficult because late stage investing like Series B, Series C, and these aren't just tokens. This is crypto as a whole. This is companies losing money. People have realized investing in crypto at a later stage is very difficult because it's very difficult to get exits, right? Like if you think about crypto companies that have had serious exits, Coinbase has gone public, obviously, which has been an amazing success. And there have been miners that have gone public. But other than that, there really hasn't been an acquisition over a few hundred million dollars. And so if you're a fund and you're thinking about investing at a 500 million dollar valuation, a billion dollar valuation, which is where you see these very large check sizes, it's unlikely that you're going to get a return.

So most of the money that's coming into crypto is coming in at an earlier stage. People are realizing that's how I get major returns. That's how I can actually generate. I can generate capital back for my investors. And so I think what's happening is we're getting a much larger amount of early stage funding and early stage round. There's a lot of early stage crypto investors in that's, and that's kind of what we're seeing in the market. And that's what I'm hearing from funds. And those are smaller checks. So that explains.

Smaller checks at an earlier stage. Correct. Yeah. So that's number one. That's one piece of the puzzle. The next piece of the puzzle is our funds raising money. And so you can actually track if funds are raising money by looking at what's called form D and DA. So any fund that's based in the US has to file a form D, which is basically a filing that says, hey, this is who we are. This is how much capital we've raised. And then every year they have to do an annual amendment to that called the form DA. Can you pull this up? Yeah. And so here you can see, you know, we're tracking kind of every capital raise that's happening in crypto in terms of both

form Ds and DAs. And so you can see here, there's actually been a little bit like Pantera just raised another $23 million last month. ARCA raised another $4 million. They've raised about $197 million total. ARCA's still raising money? Yeah, I mean, there's- They still have my money.

I think we're down like 90% after Lunas, even here in the bull market. Okay, go ahead. Sorry. Trigger word. But you can see all of the different funds that are raising capital. Here's a $37 million raise from 1RT, $25 million raise from Blockchain Investment Group. But the thing to point out here is there's nothing huge yet. And if you think about the 2021 bull market, a lot of these funds were going out and they were raising $400 million fund ones. They were raising $300 million or fund twos, $250 million raises. We haven't seen funds raising those amount of capital yet. But I will say, and this is more from conversations, it sounds like funds are a lot more positive than some of the big allocators. And I've talked to some of the big allocators that were investing last cycle are coming back.

A few of them are going to re-up in the funds that they're already in. And so I do expect this number to start increasing. I don't think we're going to see funds like if somebody raised a $300 million fund last time, I don't think it's going to double and they're going to raise a $600 million fund this time. But I do think there's a chance they raise close to or a similar amount of money if they performed well to the last fund that they were in. Because I think a lot of their existing investors, even if it's not new investors, a lot of their existing investors come back into the markets. That's the second thing that you have to look for is how much capital funds are raising. I think there's two parts to look at. Obviously, there's the venture part, because that's going to lead to funds funneling into projects at an earlier stage

and seeding them. But I do think what's more important is the liquid part, right? Or liquid hedge funds raising more money. Because we want to, you know, we need to make sure that there's a bid, right? There's somebody, you know, you throw a bunch of fishing rods, is anybody going to bite, right? And so the question are, you know, are there funds ready to come in with new capital for all these new token launches? And I'm not sure what the answer to that is yet. You know, historically, venture funds have been able to generate much better returns. But I do think now that's going to be a lot harder, especially with unlocks. I think people thought their returns were a lot better than they're going to end up being because of all of these unlocks. Funds that were maybe up 10x or maybe only up 3x now because they're not fully vested out of positions? Paper gains are the killer of every portfolio in crypto. I'm telling you, every one of us who's been here for a cycle before, especially if you were an investor and not just buying tokens, you looked at what your portfolio is worth with tokens that weren't even

in your portfolio yet. Promised tokens of vesting investments made you feel like you were worth, but by the time they actually unlock, you're in the depths of a bear market. And now we have all of the rest of these unlocking into what promises to be a bull market. I mean, you saw the Celestia unlock, right? It's like 82% of their suppliers up there at once. Honestly, maybe that's a good thing because whatever's going to happen, it'll find true price discovery when those tokens are unlocked. I mean, I've seen projects that literally give a hundred percent of tokens up front and just say, okay, let it dump and we'll see what happens. Right? Yeah. Here's the, here's the T unlock. So it's coming up in a couple of days. Guys, how awesome is the Tide Terminal, by the way?

I can ask you any question and you can just bring up a screen and you've got all the data. It's nuts. I appreciate it. By the way, I did not pay him to say that, so I appreciate it. No, I use it. You guys have seen it. I show it on the show all the time. And honestly, I don't even know how to find 90% of this stuff, even though Josh has walked

me through it, because I'm a boomer. Yeah, so tons of unlocks. That's number two, right? And honestly, I don't even know how to find 90% of this stuff, even though Josh has walked me through it. So because I'm a boomer. Yeah. So, yes. So tons of unlocks. That's number two. Right. And I think I think it's worth it's worth tracking or, you know, like, I mean, I think I think it's worth thinking about. Like, I actually think liquid funds are going to do well now because the liquid funds have the benefit of knowing all of these upcoming unlocks, right? They have the benefit of being like, you know what,

I'm going to wait 30 days to get into TIA or any of these other assets after a lot of this unlock happens, after this vesting happens. And then when I get in, I can ride the momentum and I don't necessarily have to be locked for four years. So I do think there is a really good use case for liquid funds, especially long short. I mean, I do think there is a really good use case for liquid funds, especially long short. I mean, I think long only is obviously difficult because obviously your portfolio is only going to perform as well as crypto does. Obviously, there's some deviation there, but the market historically has been pretty correlated. But then the third thing is, is there any use case of crypto that's not crypto?

And I was talking to a friend yesterday who brought up this case and I think it's a really good point is like, is there somebody who's using a crypto protocol that's not just doing it for some financial reason or for liquidity rewards or whatever? Is there an actual use case of one of these protocols where somebody's using it and they don't even think they're interacting with crypto because that creates a lot of demand which should be theoretically a lot more sustainable and true and real demand as opposed to temporary, somebody chasing an airdrop or something else? Yeah, that all makes a ton of sense.

I still just struggle to understand what's going to capture that new inflow, but it always happens in a way that I don't expect every cycle. I mean, Bitcoiners love to talk about how it's Bitcoin and micro strategy, but it was literally Doge and NFTs last cycle that brought all the new money into crypto, right? Maybe it's meme coins on Salon. I literally have no idea. Maybe it's gaming on Ton. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I do think it's...

One thing that I think the market is really excited for is Gunzilla on Avalanche, which is now on Xbox and PS5. That's one of my bigger investments, like being transparent. I never share anything, but one of my friends investments like being transparent i never share anything but my one of my friends i won't go into names who's a vc who like definitely was in everything for the last few cycles has literally sold everything he has to like go all in on gun and their ecosystem

yeah so i mean i think that's really interesting and i think it's also really interesting to look at what that does for avalanche um so one thing that we do on the tie is we track not just Avalanche C-chain, but Avalanche has all of these L1s that used to be called subnets. And so we're tracking kind of an aggregation. And I do think you're going to see a tremendous amount of transactions and activity. And a lot of people do value or they look at the number of daily active users and transactions and fees and other metrics in crypto. I think those are all going to be in Avalanche's favor. So right now, the Gunzilla, Gunzilla is on testnet. It's not on mainnet yet. You're not yet seeing all those transactions. But I mean, I think it's in the millions and

millions of transactions that are occurring on testnet. And I imagine that's going to grow in mainnet. I mean, and off the grid is a game gunzilla games is the parent company but the game that everybody's playing is off the grid and this is like fortnite call of duty quality on xbox on playstation and has a token and nft element to it and it's it's. Yeah, no, no. I mean, what that means for the value of the token or the NFTs, I have no idea. Right. So I'm hoping that that's going to be exceptionally bullish. Like I said, it's one of my larger, one of the few things I've actually tried to actively get into OTC deals happening on it. I mean, there's a lot going on behind the scenes there, but it's exciting. I think gaming in general could be one of those things that we finally see this cycle. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, I think seeing a real AAA game is cool to see and seeing it on crypto. And I think the more important question is, do other game developers then think about crypto if this is successful? That's right. So we've kind of, you and I have discussed this. I know we're up against time, but gaming was sort of stuck in the middle, right? We didn't have any blockchain games being built that were quality enough to capture mainstream adoption.

And we didn't have any actual AAA game makers incorporating crypto in any meaningful way, right? So now if we admit, hey, this is someone who's crypto native making a AAA game, that could lead to number two, to your point, which is they see it and now you get the Epic Games or whoever these are. I don't know if gun token comes at a billion dollar valuation and somebody's like, oh my God, I can make 30 million or 50 million or 100 million on my game, but I can also make 200 million on the token. It's pretty compelling. Yeah, and then there's the NFT aspect, which are basically nodes

that you're staking the NFTs that are part of the game, and those accrue more tokens. It's very compelling. We'll just see if it can reach its promise and its value. But I think gaming could be really, really interesting. interesting guys this was completely an unintended conversation for those of you watching you know i never talk about anything i invest in because people are ever sensitive pansies um josh before i let you go anything else that uh is worth talking about here i mean just generally do you still think that we're kind of cycling up into into q4 if things go right with the election do

you think we will see the election well i mean right is subjective everyone views right i don't even know right if if trump wins i think the market is gonna rip i mean i think it's as simple as that um but you know you know i i you know I'm hopeful that even if Kamala wins, that the market also rips and that she puts a good SHC chair in like, hopefully crypto, you know, the whole promise of crypto is decentralization and breaking away from governments and the fact that we're concerned about who's president is not the greatest thing in the entire world. So I hope that no matter what, it's positive for crypto. But in terms of your bags and your money, my anticipation is if the polls shift more in Trump's favor and continue to do so, that's a good thing for prices. I'll take it, Josh. Thank you, as always, for your insight. It's always fun to get a very pragmatic data-driven view on what's happening with the market. And sorry we didn't catch up more in Singapore, but alas, another busy conference. It was insanity. It was great seeing you. Good luck with the hurricane. All right, man. Everybody follow Josh. All right, guys. That's what we got there from Josh. I tend to agree. And that was actually an interesting conversation. I will go on a limb and say that

when I start talking about Catalyst, and I've said this a lot on Spaces, but not here, I do think that gaming could have a fighting chance, whether it's Godzilla off the grid or any of the other ones. But there are quality games that are going to come out and they're going to have a crypto element to them. So let's hope that we have more catalysts this cycle than a bunch of hype and vaporware that ends up going to zero. I think that we have a real chance. More exciting than that though,

is I have your literal favorite person on the whole planet waiting in the wings. You guys love him. You love his beard. You love love his hat you love his shows you love his insight it's andrew it's andrew parish he's here listen listen this whole show the rest of this show has to be about gunzilla for the next like 15 yeah you don't give a shit about stuff like that and honestly man i like i saw it in comments like yeah right lol right. LOL. Haha. Like you're talking about.

I literally like make a point to never. But if someone like literally happens to bring up something that I think is awesome, I'd probably talk about it. I mean, just the name itself. I, you know, I envision a future. OK, I envision a future for Godzilla where Larry Fink is on CNBC and he's like, listen, the future of crypto is Godzilla, right? I see that in your future, in my future. Oh, dude, I pulled it up.

I pulled it up. Yeah. There's never been, real talk, there's never been a more ripe and one would think easy simple on-ramp for crypto at large than gaming it's already you know everybody from like age 8 to 48 whether they'll admit it or not play a game i'm one of the weird ones that don't play games but i watch my kids play games like crazy and i and i lord knows i've invested in these games more than i'll ever care to to uh to admit with you know buy these bucks or those bucks or this cat or whatever it happens to be it's it's already it's part of the process it's part of the ecosystem already they're just at some only one person one game has to catch fire that that this i know i know it's incredible

it really is it really is incredible and if there's just one game one that that also somehow connects a token or connects crypto or connects the next version of NFTs. Everybody hates that phrase now. That looks like Denzel. And this guy looks like King Harold from Vikings as I'm watching it. Anyways, my ADD,

you know. It will take off. It will take off one one would think that that would be the platform Godzilla or not Godzilla that that would that gaming would be the platform where things could really go nuts you know the the the thesis from like a guy like Jack Dorsey associated with Bitcoin is that you know know, the internet needs money, right? The internet needs a native currency and thus Bitcoin, right? That's his thesis. Well, this is a version of the internet and currency. Like right now, the internet kind of does have currency in gaming, right? So whether

it's Roblox or whether it's Fortnite or whether it's Call of Duty now, you know, there's you can't really play these games in a meaningful way without spending money on the platform itself. Yeah, I might as well get some value out of that. Yeah, right. So so at some point there's going to be I think your thesis is right, associated with gaming and crypto, having a moment. I don't know when that is. I don't know if it'll happen or not, but it is one of those few things that actually logically makes sense. Yeah, one would think, right?

One would think. This is not what I signed you up for, though. No, this is not at all. I did not come here for Godzilla. I was roped into this conversation. Look, Valerie has her Nintendo since she was a kid. Any advice for upgrade? I still just play Nintendo.

I mean, my kid has a Switch, so I play Mario Kart still, just to dominate and whoop them. But I also have not advanced. But I did check out this game because I was investing in it. Well, I mean, if you're any meaningful, respectable gamer, you're a PS5 guy. I stopped at Halo. That was the last, like, you know, we did, obviously, Goldeneye. Yeah, I think the last time I played games was PlayStation 2.

And I think... Yeah, people are asking. You cannot buy it yet. It's in test net. It hasn't been netted, but it'll be the gun. No. Yeah, you can't. Back to the been netted, but it'll be the gun. No. Yeah, you can't. No, you cannot.

Back to the issues at hand. Back to the issues at hand. Speaking of gaming and the gamification of returns, my friend, another 5% last week, the 10,000K portfolio. Look at that entry in that exit, dude. No human being can do that. No chance.

Like, okay, you're a human being. Maybe you can get the entry right there at nine 28, but there is no way you're pulling off that exit at the tippy top. And then literally the next candle slash candle and a half is a dead drop. Okay. That is what our products do right there. That's the picture. So you're in the market for three to 5% of the time that the markets are open every month.

And you go in and you grab that performance and you put it in your wallet, okay? So that takes the 10K portfolio to 47.5%, 47.2 or 47.5 since we started. It's almost 50%, man. And if I added up all the time, so to speak, in the market for that 47 plus percent to have happened in that 10 hours. Not even.

No, no. We're probably talking about a total of maybe four and a half hours. Dead serious. The Sharpe ratio with our algorithms is off the charts. And it's supposed to be. People that have spent time in finance that use our products, they really, really appreciate the fact that this is diametrically opposed

to the idea of passive investing. But on a day-to-day basis, the actual way that it plays out is passive. So you have a tool that's going in and extracting performance on your behalf, but you don't have to sit at a computer and do anything about it. You do nothing, right? You allow the algorithms to do what they're supposed to do. So it's incredible stuff. On top of that, the 10K portfolio at 47 and a half, if you're in our concierge program in the last two months, you've printed 30%. So, you know, people always ask us when they get on calls with us, you know, well, is the concierge program, is it better performance? You bet it is.

You bet it is. We're careful, you know, we're under promise over delivered type of type of folks. Um, you know, we're careful with how we talk about performance and, and, um, it's important to be conservative, but the numbers are the numbers. I have a comment here that is worth addressing from Wits is always here. If nobody ever lost money in this product, they would not need to sell it. Uh, there are times when it takes losses yeah yeah absolutely there are times when it takes losses in fact uh over the past two weeks i think there were like five trades and there were two down trades but here's the thing we have stop loss protection on the downside with 80

of our products meaning that if we enter a position you're not going to lose more than two percent on that position so we can show you show you a spreadsheet of the last four months of trades just in our ES and MES products. Those are S&P 500 products. You're looking at 14, I think 16 trades. Three of them are to the downside, but every one of them are less than 2%, 1. three one point four one point seven to the downside and then when you see to the upside you're talking about a factor of two or three to the upside versus those downside losses listen i gotta give a shout out uh to our guy that you know hasn't been on the show for a while tillman you know tillman is kind of the brain goes on the uh bitcoin he does

weird he never shows up here weird it's like like me he's gonna yeah he's gonna show up here in a couple weeks i told him but he listen man he's a math guy um he's a huge ex-football player but he's a lineman the linemen's are the smart guys on the football team and he you know he he's a he's he's a big brain behind our algorithms and does a lot of work with our research and development teams at the top end to create this stuff and he's created some really remarkable products that you know it's it's it's fun to watch people enjoy the process with us where they come in a little bit skeptical and then they realize that holy cow this this this stuff works the way this these guys say that it works and then they're like okay if it works with

10 grand does it work with more money yes it does if it works with more money does it work with even more money yes it does so yeah people follow people double triple quadruple i mean yeah yeah people follow the path right people follow a particular path so um meanwhile while you and i are on the show clearly our energy is pushing bitcoin higher i mean that's yeah it happened yesterday too and it went to 64 and i got all excited and then here we were listening. I don't know what to think of that, but there are, listen, let's talk about a few things though, like outside. So, okay, first of all, I'm going to just do the thing now because we,

I'm going to bring it up because people are going to ask and they're going to bother me. It's the arch public right here, the arch public.com, set a call to talk to you they'll walk you through it guys there's hundreds of you probably now that i know are using this uh and i haven't heard a complaint and i will say this so there was a time actually where i was like i need to make sure this shit is as good as i think it is and i literally called like my buddy at trade station you remember this yeah i do this is trades on trade station and I'm like, I don't want to like, you know, I'm pretty like diligent about what we do. I'm using it myself.

So obviously, like, and he made a comment. I'm going to say this like transparently ahead of crypto at TradeStation. And that's where this is trading. He said to me, listen, I'm going to look into this more deeply. I'm going to call the team and see what's happening. He knew you guys, obviously. And he said, these are the largest accounts that we've added to trade station and we haven't gotten a single customer service complaint yeah and he said if

these were people losing tons of money i would be hearing about it every single day guys this is fact i'm not lying to you i this is like part of the due diligence i have no idea what will happen in the future we could take 30 losses in a row anything could happen but i mean that you know and i and then i i vetted everything you know, and I, and then I, I vetted everything, you know, and it's pretty, uh, yeah. So then you get these people that say, is this stuff as good as Voyager and BlockFi? The natural comments. Yes. I've, I've learned to do a better due diligence guys, but, uh, uh, in my defense, I was being lied to by the CEO every day of my life. Yeah. Here's, here's the difference there is that we don't custody your funds. We don't touch your money, right? Your money is on a FINRA, SEC, US-based exchange

that competes with Fidelity and Schwab, TradeStation. It's your money. It's trading stocks, guys. Yeah. Your account with your name on it. You've got an app on your phone that's not an arch public app. It's TradeStation app. And you have access to your funds 24-7. You push a button and it sends it anywhere that you want to. You don't talk to us. You don't call us about your money. Our algorithms are overlaid on top of your account and they do what they're supposed to do. And again, we have an entry-level product, our gateway product, where effectively it's a prove-it type of product. It's 99 bucks a month

and you get to prove that liquidity. You get to prove TradeStation. You get to prove our algorithm. You get to prove our support and staff and all those things. And if people have the capital to move from 10,000 to 25 to 50, literally we've seen over the past six months within three to six weeks, people upgrade because they're like, okay, I've tested everything out.

This is what it is. So yeah, it's we love what we do. We love our customers and listen listen, there's risk involved in anything associated with money and capital and returns. But we've, I'll just say this again, we love what we do and we love our products. it's trading on an exchange you download it from the exchange like anything else i'm answering for you because i know the answer you go to trade station will give you all of your trades and you report it as such yeah it's actually from trading the futures contract so the tax implication is not as bad but none of that has to be handled by arch public you have an account on trade station if you were trading it or a bot is trading it all of the other things with it yeah it's a you is trading it, all of the other things are the same. Yeah, it's a place like TradeStation. They're required by the SEC, the NYSE, like 12 different regulatory bodies associated with finance. Where there's bottom line, there's like a button on TradeStation where you're like, give me my tax documents.

And it's downloaded to be a PDF in like seconds. Like they have to do that. Right. I mean, it's, it's like you trade or swap. Yeah. Well, you know, not crypto trades also. It's just not complicated. Yeah.

It's not complicated. This is not like trying to like go to some like foreign exchange and figure out your cost basis trading in and out of Bitcoin to altcoins and stuff it's pretty straightforward it's very simple it's hand a document to your accountant if you use an accountant i'd like to show you something important though this is important right based on our former conversation this is important ready the least attractive male hobbies one through five playing video games so someone was saying hey this guy hasn't played video games in 30 years but he's telling us about pool games. That's a fair point.

I know nothing about gaming. I just know that it's big. Number two, collecting figurines. Number three, crypto. Number four, online trolling. Number five, gambling. I would venture to guess there's some of you in the comments who are all of those and may also be women. So I don't even know.

Yeah. Well, you know, listen, online, online trolling. I mean, we, we, you and I have both. That's a hobby. That's literally a hobby. This is a hobby. When did trolling become a hobby? My hobby is bullying little kids. There's a reason why reply guys as a, as a moniker actually exists right um yeah online

trolling is a is a thing um you know i'll post something about bitcoin and inevitably there's a little group of people that will send me charts from the last five minutes that it's gone down by 0.5 and i'm like dude i just send that oftentimes i just ignore it because who cares but every once in a while i'm annoyed and i'll just send them a year-long chart and it's up 123 or whatever i'm like what are you what are you doing get off my feed i don't really buy people yeah what do you guys in the comments do for fun i want to know your hobbies we got trolling trolling hobbyist that's a reference from caddyshack right skinny skiing yeah oh he just said who got the caddyshack reference i did i know skinny skiing come on tuna colada trolling trolling hobbyist here that's that's outstanding yeah yeah i got the caddyshack reference of course i did uh smoke weed every day it's like the dog smoke weed every day

um and we got all these people talking about the video games they watched i saw somewhere up here at castlevania i love that that was the first nintendo game i had when i actually bought a nintendo was the original Castlevania. I saw some Tecmo Bowl people in here. Bo Jackson, literally unstoppable. If you want me to really date myself, I was a huge Double Dribble fan. Double Dribble was the shit. Double Dribble was amazing.

And it had a glitch in it where if you basically flew to the right-hand corner and shot like falling out of bounds. Falling out of bounds, corner three-pointer, cannot miss. It went in every single time. Did you guys ever play Nintendo ice hockey with skinny guy, medium guy, and fat guy? Yes. Ah.

God. Same thing with RBI baseball, right? Same kind of figures with RBI baseball, right? Yeah, I think the first version of RBI baseball I had was on a Commodore 64. Oh, yeah, that's embarrassing before we got an atari and played pong yeah i mean i was there for all of it don't tell me about my lack of knowledge of video gaming you kids don't know about video gaming yeah look at this see we've got people i this like as is proven when we see who signs up for arch public i know that my audience is us. That's right.

It's us. That is right. We are the avatars of your audience. That is absolutely true. Dr. J versus Larry Bird. My God, man. In my mind, that was Magic Johnson versus Larry Bird, but it was Dr. J versus Larry Bird.

You're right. Magic wasn't cool enough yet. Akari Warriors, Contra, ABBA, Select Start, Up Down, Up Down, Left Right, Contra, ABBA, Select Start, Up, Down, Up, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, ABBA, Select Start, Infinite Lives. Where are you people? This is so much better than a conversation about Bitcoin, man. I mean, obviously,

everybody that's listening to this and is on your channel played a version of and to the end of the original super mario brothers i mean that was that was like you know obviously they did that and and legend of zelda the original legend legend of zelda little hershey squirt dudes well yeah and the cool thing about legend of zelda is the the the cartridge was gold right that was like oh man this has got to be the coolest game in the world you know you put it in yeah this thing's not this thing's not working that's right who invented that by the way how did that become a ridiculous thing without the internet like how

how did anything go viral without the internet right right right how did we know to blow in the cartridge and that that was something everybody did, but nobody was connected to anybody, right? Yeah, it's wild. Yeah, that was not online gaming for all you kids. No. Oh my God. So anyways, guys, now that we've talked this to death,

anything else, listen, before I let you go, like anything else we should be watching. We have this conversation, Bitcoin stuck in limbo. Here's why it's struggling to break through, right? I mean, we get it. Are you looking for any catalysts here? We still have inflows into the ETFs generally. A lot of things I think to look forward to. We talked about the election. We know that you've talked about wire houses coming online. Does any of this China stimulus and Fed cuts and blah, blah, blah, Is that going to affect the cycle? Here's my messed up mind. I'm laying in bed last night right before I fall asleep

and I'm thinking about Bitcoin ETF inflows. That's right. Right next to Pornhub. Yeah, right. So I'm thinking about it and I'm reminding myself from a price standpoint that every time that any ETF inflows are of size 100 million or more at any ETF shop, whether it's BlackRock or Bitwise or whoever, they've got to go out and they've got to go buy Bitcoin. Well, what does that presuppose? Someone has to sell them that Bitcoin, right?

So we get a lot of conversations about, well, VTFs are buying so much and they keep buying so much and why hasn't price blah, blah, blah. Remember, when they've got to go out and buy Bitcoin, somebody has to sell them Bitcoin. So If you're wondering why price has meandered around in the 60s now for, let's call it six months, that's why there are equal amounts of sellers and buyers. At some point, that will adjust. At some point, there'll be a move higher. And a reminder that those moves higher happen between eight to 12 days every year. Probably the best guy that talks about that is a guy by the name of Tom Lee at Fundstrat. And he's a TradFi guy, a great research house. And, you know, he talks about the eight to 12 days every year where

Bitcoin, you know, really, really moves higher, five, 7%, 10% on any given day. You've got to be in it, quote unquote, to win it with Bitcoin. And are there any, quote unquote, catalysts? I don't know. Have there ever been massive catalysts associated with those 8 to 12 days? Or have they been borderline somewhat random? They've been pretty random, right? I subscribe to your ongoing thesis that we have this six-month lull after the halving because we always do.

And then there'd be a move higher and we're in that space right now. We're going to see, yeah, that Q4. Oh, by the way, since now Bitcoin is much more integrated into traditional finance, right? There's going to be, you know, late October, November into December. I think there'll be some rebalancing of portfolios, meaning hedge funds, family offices will add more exposure to the Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin in general, because they weren't exposed enough in terms of performance for the entire year. So the way that people try and catch up, so when they have their year-end reviews with their biggest clients, why weren't you exposed to Bitcoin? Oh, well, we are. Look, we have extra now. We have extra now. We figured that out. We

did our due diligence and we figured it out and we added more so that's how they cover up not being as exposed to it as they should have been so we're going to see that that would be considered a catalyst um it's just how does it play out you know as it relates to price and Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis I'm not sure I'm not sure I don't know how much we're allowed to say about what's coming, but I'm going to tell you guys, it's not going to be as of next week, but soon.

You guys, Macro Monday has obviously been my most popular consistent show. And I've talked to my audience about my sort of desire to do more panel-based shows. And so the idea here that Andrew and I have been tossing around and will be happening

is that the two of us will be a part of a three- four person panel on a Tuesday show. Yeah. The Tuesdays are going to morph into basically like me moderating a conversation between you and I'm not sure if we're supposed to discuss who. Yeah, I think we're good. Yeah, I think we're good. I think we're good. The documents have been signed and signed off on.

I think we're good. Yeah. So you can tell good. Yep. So you can tell them. Yeah. So yeah, our Bitcoin algorithm is going to launch on Gemini. And so we're going to have a bunch of conversations with Gemini folks. We're going to have a bunch of conversations with Bitcoin ETF folks. We're going to have a bunch of conversations with custody folks.

You know, I think the show on Tuesday is going to be fairly Bitcoin focused. And then as the ecosystem around Bitcoin continues to grow and grow and grow and grow, because it will, you know, there's going to be no shortage of things to talk about associated with Bitcoin. Not only, you know, as an ethos and as a cypherpunk movement, but also as it grows and eats more and more percentage of portfolios associated with traditional finance. It's at an inflection point and the opportunity to talk about our product and our work with Gemini, as well as the growth of Bitcoin as an asset or as an asset class even, there'll be no shortage of not only conversation but guests that we'll be bringing on over the coming months yeah so effectively a primarily bitcoin focus show around the power of dollar cost averaging but then obviously custody exchanges it's gonna be

fucking i can't we're gonna get everyone it's gonna be awesome awesome. Maybe even two really tall twins. That would be fantastic. Yeah, absolutely. Who you may know from hits like Founders of Gemini and The Social Network. But yeah, you guys get the idea. Not making any promises, but it's going to be awesome. Once again, guys, go check out thearchpublic.com

if you want to know what the hell we've been talking about the whole time. And you can follow Andrew, obviously, at ap underscore abacus on the x twitter machine you're going to be seeing a lot more of andrew's smiling face we got to go guys it's 10 o'clock thank you so much man you bet have a good one Let's go.