The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Supercycle Still Ahead? Institutions, Banks & Governments Accumulate!

Episode Date: November 13, 2025

The first-ever U.S. spot XRP ETF has been approved and begins trading tomorrow, marking a historic moment for altcoins and opening the door to a new wave of institutional inflows. Meanwhile, Taiwan is now considering adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, signaling that global governments are beginning to view BTC as a strategic asset. In the U.S., regulators are moving fast: SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled a new “Token Taxonomy” that could redefine how digital assets are classified, Coinbase is reincorporating in Texas to align with pro-crypto state laws, and the Senate’s draft bill is pushing more oversight toward the CFTC.

As we endlessly debate whether the four-year cycle is over, many are still looking for a Bitcoin super cycle ahead, pointing at the incredible level of institutions, banks, and governments that are either accumulating assets or passing favorable legislation and regulation for the industry. The United States is no exception. Obviously, with the government reopening, we have the tailwinds returning for the crypto industry. Bitcoin Supercycle ahead, or is it top it? Let's go. Good morning, Thursday, faithful, and welcome to Bitcoin and, of course, the bullshit with myself and, And, Yago, man, there's a lot more Bitcoin and a lot less bullshit at the moment, actually, which is kind of nice. But we still have some of the latter all around the world. But let's first focus on what I would say is some positive news. We obviously have the government reopening, which means that crypto is back on the docket, both with the regulators and with the lawmakers.

We've discussed quite a few of these things this week here already. So I just want to touch on them. but we have bipartisan legislation being floated in the Senate to largely move crypto regulation to the CFTC, which is something certainly in the Gensler era that the crypto industry deeply wanted because they viewed the CFTC as a more reasonable regulator, less staffed, I think, less aggressive. Well, now actually, from the other side, we have some really interesting news here. So SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveils plan for token taxonomy to redefine crypto regulation. they're looking at basically putting all tokens into one of four buckets from what I can

understand. There's not that deep of reporting on this, but payment tokens, utility tokens, commodities and securities. So effectively, only the latter would probably really be the purview of the SEC. So even the SEC now effectively saying once we get this taxonomy, if I'm reading this right, most of this is going to fall to the CFTC. Yes, that's right. And look, this is not a new idea. Even back in 2017, we started to see countries that wanted to encourage the development of the crypto industry within their borders adopt a similar type of taxonomy. And basically, Atkins is borrowing from their ideas. So it was a lot of European countries, some Central American countries had this taxonomy of payments, security, and utility.

sometimes there was a mix between payments and utility and then what the SEC is here introducing is a new component of that which is commodity which is basically what Bitcoin fell into across all of these different regimes and was non-regulated so this I think is very encouraging It means that the majority of these assets, the vast majority of these assets will not be considered securities. That is going to allow a lot more free trade, a lot more borderless. Transactions is going to allow people who usually aren't allowed access to trade in securities because they're not so-called qualified investors. They don't have enough money to qualify under U.S. law to be engaged.

It comes with all of the disadvantages of opening access, right? So you can have more scams and less reporting. But the industry itself, the crypto industry itself, I think, has matured a great deal over the last 10 years. And people are expecting more mature projects. They're expecting greater disclosures. They're expecting greater investor protections anyway. And so what we're seeing in real time is the evolution on the one hand in the crypto space of people figuring out how to use the free market now they've finally, you know, had over the last 10 years opportunity to experience it. And at the same time, the regulators backing down.

This is another, you know, the other I think really important thing here is that this means that they, the SEC and the overall Trump administration are looking to introduce changes which would effectively be permanent or very, very hard to reverse even under a change in the regime or if Democrats sort of took power again. And so, right. And what that does besides, you know, a lot of people think it's favorable for the ecosystem, you know, for the industry and the actors in the industry. but it has a deeper meaning, which is it brings stability, right? You can start, the industry is not going to be lashed back and forth by, you know, completely arbitrary changes in the mood swings of politicians as much anymore. And the SEC is much larger staff, arguably at least currently more political. The CFTC is very much more rule-based.

They have a very clear mandate on the way that they have. regulate things. So I think that to your point, if the Democrats come back in, or not even the Democrats, even a less favorable Republican regime, who knows, right? Whoever's running it, they're putting hopefully more structure in place to make sure that changes made now are not just like executive orders that can be overturned, right? Which also leads to the argument that we still need market structure, because it's still just regulation and not law, right? So we still need it to be based in law, which says is coming. There's some really interesting quotes here, though, Because he says this will be based on the Howie test, which everybody kind of poohs, obviously, because it's from the 1930s or 40s.

But he says, in the coming months, I anticipate that the commission will consider establishing a token taxonomy that's anchored in a longstanding Howie investment contract securities analysis, recognizing that there are limited principles to our laws and regulations. But then he says, networks mature, code is shipped, control disperses, the issuers role diminishes or disappears. At some point, purchasers are no longer relying on the issuers of central managerial efforts, and most tokens now trade without any reasonable expectation that a particular team is still at the helm. So he totally gets it. He says, we're going to say, what's still a security is he going to say a lot of these started as securities but evolved into something else, which kind of reeks of safe harbor from Hester Purse, but it's still going to get weird.

I think, you know, in a way, what he's saying is favorable, but I'm not sure he gets it, because how many significant projects no longer sort of rely on the managerial efforts, right? If you, you know, if you look at the biggest coins even, right, XRP still requires managerial efforts, Solana still requires managerial efforts, Tron still requires managerial efforts, BSC, B&B still requires managerial efforts. So in reality, I think to the extent that securities laws was, designed in order to mitigate the

imbalance of information available to the people who are purchasing the securities and the people who are managing the securities. None of this addresses any of that. The SEC have completely failed at that from the beginning of crypto and one could argue since before that. But, you know, just from the perspective of free markets and having a more libertarian view on what makes successful markets if we can get the SEC out of this because their involvement

has been absolutely horrendous and they've protected no one from anything so yeah i mean he goes on to say you know fraud is fraud this is not meaning lax enforcement it just means that we're defining it and i think those are the right things to say because you know the uh fraud from a Nigerian prince emailing you is no different than fraud from crypto or fraud from a Ponzi scheme you know like made off. So fraud is fraud and that's the SEC's job. What I find interesting here, you kind of brought up Ethereum. I was joking, right, as you were kind of saying that, people to some degree are always going to look to the Ethereum Foundation or see what they're doing or what they're building. XRP, I got into, you know, the usual argument with the XRP army.

And I was like, what's the main pitch right now? And they would keep showing me, Brad Garlinghouse literally tweeting XRP is central to everything that we're doing. I'm not saying being a security is bad, but by this definition, like the CEO, is telling you what he's going to do to make the asset appreciate into the future. I think the real question is, why is being a security so bad, or could there just be levels of it? The fact is that they've weaponized the idea of being security against the industry, so now nobody wants to be a security. Yes.

And to the extent that they've done this without actually achieving benefits or protections for anyone. So fundamentally, I think the SEC have. failed in regulating crypto and to the extent that we can get them out of the business of regulating crypto it's to the benefit of everyone involved speaking of i think uh the xr ptf launching uh today which i think i don't know how it will do today i don't know what it will mean for the underlying xrp but uh having interacted quite frequently with the xrp army i think this thing should do quite well because it right now right isn't isn't uh mostly crypto just trades on lind you know like you kind of just uh you get the effect of the crowd and they buy and they're

excited and that breeds more buying and excitement i think this thing should do quite well salon has done well the eGF yeah um it might do uh hard for me to say um certainly i think um sort of the tread investor um tread like the traditional investors i don't think are heavily in XRP, but retail investors who like sort of tread, things that feel tread, they are the ones who are heavily in XRP. And so they may very much enjoy an ETA. I think some of the biggest news coming out of the U.S. right now is Donald Trump's 2000 Stimmy package. $2,000. I can hear the helicopters starting to gather out there. So I don't, you know, we don't really have any news on this except for Trump saying that he's going to do it and best in trying to

walk it back. But this is very, very big news in my view, if it goes through because it's a massive stimulus similar in magnitude and in order of the stimulus that was introduced under Trump for COVID. Under COVID, every family or every individual got $1,800 here. It's $2,000. It is estimated that 10% of that flowed into Bitcoin and crypto. It's, in fact, you know, Coinbase at the time, for example, we were reporting that they suddenly saw an uptick of people smash buying exactly $1,800 and exactly the same day that the checks went out. So it's so nuts.

I remember when the Republican pitch was fiscal response. And they still say they're fiscally responsible while at the same time floating $2,000 stimulus checks. The smoke and mirrors of our government on both sides is just astounding to me. Well, I don't think there's any party which is in favor of a spending less. You don't get voted in by spending less. You get voted in by spending more. It's just a question of how you're going to spend it. I think the great trick of the Republicans is they manage to do it while still claiming it the party of fiscal responsibility.

It's a cool narrative. Whether or not this will happen, I don't know, but if it does happen, it's extremely big news and could kick off a wave of retail excitement on the order of GameStop, you know, crypto and 2020, 2021 boom again. So, you know, unfortunately it's your tax dollars, your government in debt, but everyone in the world is important. I'm fiscally responsible. I've literally no idea what you're talking about. I mean, but you kind of alluded to the fact that the United States leads, right, in all of these things, and people tend to follow. So this is not the biggest country in the world, but Taiwan lawmaker pushes government to consider Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. As I dig into it, it's probably like one random guy in one random place showing a bill and we

jump all over it. But we did have Kazakhstan saying they're going to steal a billion dollars worth of crypto from their citizens to start their strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the spirit of the United States. But this is already gaining momentum and traction, even though the United States hasn't technically bought any Bitcoin or passed a law about this. Of course, we do have an executive order, and we do have the government, I won't say stealing, accumulating from criminals in other jurisdictions that have nothing to do with us, a Bitcoin Reserve. But this is happening. That's right. Look, Farage in the UK introduced a bill to Parliament. And he's back, right? He's back.

He doesn't have a great deal of power in Parliament right now. But the Reform Party in the polls is the leading party and where the polls to happen today would dominate and become likely the next government in the UK. He's pushing a bill to do two things, eliminate taxation on Bitcoin and Bitcoin transactions and introduce a Bitcoin strategic. Reserve into the UK. And at the same time, another country which did something similar, the Czech Republic a year ago introduced law, which was that should you hold Bitcoin, if you become a hoddler and huddle your Bitcoin for three years or more, you pay no capital gains taxes in the Czech Republic. That's already established law for a year now. And their central bank recently announced that they had purchased a million dollars worth of primarily Bitcoin

and crypto, which was stable coins, as part of a pilot program to learn about how they can purchase, hold, and manage crypto assets with the ultimate goal being that they could potentially then choose to add Bitcoin to their reserve. I mean, they're not the only people that are looking at Bitcoin. We've got 61% of institutions plan crypto allocation boost into Q4. this very like oddly specific timing like immediately um it's just another report but i think it just speaks to the same thing is that we have this clear accumulation of crypto assets clear interest still in the class and i think maybe the bigger story is this blip and price action is not in any way

stalling that anywhere governments institutions none of them we don't have a single report that even like our spastic retail crypto Twitter community saying it's all over bare market for your cycle it's finished you don't hear any of that from any major institution or serious player they're all like oh cool prices are cheaper let's go I think you and I Scott should create the super cycle watch right so I think we spoke about this a little bit last week My current sense of it is that the entire Bitcoin crypto world is holding its breath to find out whether or not we're still in a four-year cycle. We're currently November 13th. The cycle should end within a month, certainly by the end of this year.

If Bitcoin's price is holding up in the new year, then we are in totally new territory. And no one, I think, will be able to still argue that the four-year cycle is playing out at all as expected. And I think at that point, all bit so often we're into pure discovery. Yeah, let's see. Supercycle watch. I love that. I had the Supercycle title and someone's like, Supercycle. I saw it over in the comments.

Price is going to go down today. Like, good thing the Supercycle wasn't based on Thursday, November 13th price action. Well, I don't know. It really is a window into like how. on top of, and listen, part of that's our fault. Okay, I'm going to admit it. Like, I show up every single day and we talk about what the price is doing. And sometimes the title is like, Bitcoin loses 103.

Will it hold 102? And it's like, I'm an idiot. That's done. Makes no difference. But we got to do something. No, but it does. It has a real, I mean, look, no one can deny it has a huge psychological impact. And the markets are the aggregate of people's psychological activity and people's

hopes and dreams and greed and fear. And if people fear, which they do, that we're at the very, very, you know, the end of the ninth inning of the four year cycle, then people don't want to come into the market right now. And the price of Bitcoin having hit $126 today being $100,000, let's call it $3,000, $103,000, a bit of a difference, is encouraging to people who believe that this is, you know, we're already passed. We're already in the bear market. And maybe the bear market looks a bit different. Maybe it's a slower deflation, right? We usually see significant crashes in the price. But it doesn't disappear. You know, even in previous bear markets, the price doesn't immediately drop. It deflates. And so we might be deflating. We might

be in a world where another four-year cycle has come and gone. And we're already past it. We're into the next cycle, cycle number six, and we're at the beginning of that cycle, which starts with the bear market. That's one possibility. The other possibility is that the four-year cycle is dead. And that would be remarkable because it would mean that nobody knows anything anymore. We don't know how to navigate this market because we've been navigating this market according to cycles for the last 12 years um so we'll see i don't know nobody knows that's why the whole world is holding its breath yeah because if you believe deeply in the four-year cycle and you read reddit post that predicted years ago that like october 6th was going to be

the dead top and then you know price hits the dead top at october 6 superstition is a it's a mother yeah yeah meanwhile uh in the privacy arena i have not looked deeply into Zcash, I'm going to be honest, but Rand Nooner made kind of the case for it to me, and I see a ton of interest in it. Well, now the Winkle Vi, that's plural for Winkle Vosses. Back to Cypherpunk targets 5% of Zcash supply with 58 million treasury seeds. So listen, we actually have had a pretty crazy stalling of digital asset treasury announcements, right? It was like five a day for six months. This is the first one I've even heard of. of launching in quite a while that we've bothered to report on, but focusing very heavily here on

Zcash, I wonder if this is about the money or is it actually a deep belief in Zcash as a privacy token? And to that end, then let's talk about privacy on Bitcoin. Well, so before we get to that, I'm very, I don't know what's going on with Zcash. It's been on a real rip. I don't know why. There doesn't seem to be a clear catalyst. The closest thing might be their decision to try and move to proof of stake. Do you have a theory on it? My theory is that a bunch of people got together and like, what's a really dead token? We can buy a bunch of and then create a narrative and say it's being built on and privacy is important and whatever.

But listen, if they're going to pump something, privacy coin is the best thing. That's true. I mean, if they're all making a ton of money, but like actually putting some sort of spotlight on privacy as an important aspect of what's happening in crypto, then I'm. I'm here for it. I missed it as a investment or trade so far. You weren't part of the right alpha group. You went on the right on the right. You went on the right WhatsApp channel. But I mean, you know, meanwhile, UK floats 20,000 stable coin limit in tougher regime than

U.S. So like, yeah, I can see why people would want privacy tokens. We had all kinds of news. The UAE with a digital Durham CBDC test. I mean, you know, non-private government back type coins are coming. um i look i obviously i would like to see privacy built into more of crypto i think that would be in line with the cypherpunk roots of why we've built out these tools in the first place i think also anyone trying to spend uh small money to buy medicines uh or or big money to do significant trades

on an institutional level absolutely needs to have confidential transactions um it's obvious why governments have been pushing against it. It's less obvious to me why the value of privacy hasn't been more obvious to people who are in the industry up until now. As for Zcash, you're right. To me, this feels like very, very much a pump and dump. Some people were able to corner enough of the liquid supply to feel like they could, you know, move the price meaningfully

and then cash out. that cash out point has probably already happened about a week ago or we're currently in the process of it. And the part that I hadn't thought about, which I really like, he said, yeah, you know, this is the perfect coin to do it with. The big problem I see with Zcash from a technical perspective is it doesn't really integrate very easily into anything else. And so it's not easy to, you know, if you've, there is no defy ecosystem. It doesn't integrate with Ethereum. It doesn't integrate with Bitcoin. You, it's cumbersome to move your other crypto assets into Zcash and out. And it's those entry and exit points which really are

defining for privacy. So I think, you know, the ZK technology that is at the basis of Zcash and that Zcash helped promote incredibly important, whether or not Zcash is going to be the primary sort of asset which benefits from it. I'm skeptical. I bought Zcash and have held and used it for almost 10 years now, 2016, I think. Over Monero or both? I've never been particularly fund of Monero, to be honest. I think it's got a great community, but I think the tech provides less at least from a technical perspective you get less sort of

privacy assurances with Minero but I don't you know I think both are very good projects have done important things have substantially moved the field forward I think what we're doing now with zero knowledge proofs

is bringing them into Bitcoin we're starting to see more use of them in Ethereum as well And we're starting to see privacy being developed. And at the same time, what's happened with samurai wallet, what's happened with the tornado wallet dev has, I think made it, has had a very, very clear chilling effect. And so, you know, we're going to need to hope to see or become sort of the kind of cypherpunks who can introduce technologies into this space without, without,

doxing ourselves if we're going to want to see more privacy technology. You just have to dox yourself when you go in and out of it. Once you're in there, I was kidding. So that's one possibility. The other thing is we're in the process at Boss. We're in the process of building out the tools for confidential transactions with BTC natively on Bitcoin and across multiple different chains. But the way we're doing it is we're focused on building.

it in a way that will be useful to institutions because, first of all, there's a huge need there. And second of all, if you can build it in a way that is useful into institutions, then it's very, very clear why that needs to exist. You're less likely to be hounded by the, you know, feds for doing that. And that technology can also then be useful to individuals who need to, you know, maintain their financial and economic privacy just as much as any institution. Yeah.

Listen, this is actually just announced today. I don't know if I saw a Czech National Bank becomes first central bank to buy Bitcoin with one million test portfolio made up of crypto, stable coins, and tokenized deposit. So there you go. They're not even stealing it. They actually took one million hard-earned check dollars.

What's the check currency? Euro, their euro, I assume. No, I think it's the Zlotti. No, no, Lottie is Poland, chick. I've been there, too. I can't remember what it used to be, but I thought they were on the, Krona. Corona, yeah, ZZK. Crown, wow, see?

I thought that we were educated people. But this is happening. But listen, I know we got to go in a couple minutes, but I've seen that there's been a pretty big uptick in, like, volume around BOS. Obviously, guys are starting to gain some traction. So maybe just talk about quickly, you know, what's, what's coming next? Well, we've seen significant trade volumes over the last couple of days in the hundreds of millions. Growing activity across all metrics and work.

191 million in the last 24 hours. I'm looking at it right now. That's a lot. Yeah. It's good. days here at bus we've been um we've been seeing um you know a lot of interest strong development um very very early days but but very very exciting awesome all right well that's what we got i got to run and go get on serious thank you yago as always the people are asking

if you were wearing a hex hat or a pulse chain hat it's a boss it's a bOS this is the boss logo Imagine if you showed up in a HX hat, though, that would be awesome. If someone sends me when I'll wear it. Just for fun. Why not? Huge supporter. Anyways, we've got to go before we go down that rabbit hole. Yago, thank you very much.

Everybody, obviously, give him a follow on X and check out false Bitcoin OS. That's all we got. Have a good one, man. Have a good one, everybody. Thanks, Scott. Have a good one. Cheers. What's up, Wolfpack, Scott Melker here.

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