The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming! Institutions Are Buying BIG!

Episode Date: January 29, 2025

I’m joined by Markus Thielen from 10x Research and James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, to dive into the latest crypto news and market insights. Markus Thielen: https://x.com/thielen10x James Butterfill: https://x.com/jbutterfill Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►ROUNDTABLE 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/uWB6ium ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://archpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin on exchanges is hitting historic lows and a lot of other indications that a likely supply shock is coming. Last I checked, when demand is rising and supply is dropping, the number should go up. But Bitcoin does seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment, while altcoins get absolutely decimated. We're going to talk about all of this deep seek, of course, and more with James Butterfield and Marcus Dillon, Texas West Capitol at 930. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we get Let's go. to see how passionate you are about an on-time start. We just never start on time. It's a rule on YouTube, guys. Anyways, going to go on, bring on our amazing guests.

We got James from CoinShares, Marcus from 10X Research, our crack team of researchers. You know, we used to do this alone. Now we're a squad. We're a wolf pack, if you will. So thank you for joining my wolf pack. Guys, let's talk about what's going on here. I actually want to start with DeepSeek because, James, you sent me some notes right before the show saying basically

no way, right? They definitely stole something from ChatGPT to train their models. There's no way they did this for $6 million. And literally four minutes ago, I found this story saying that OpenAI has evidence that DeepSeq illegally used their proprietary models to train its own open source, in quotes. I like that. Competitor, I guess no surprise here for you, but didn't take long for this trade war on AI, as they say here, to get going. Yeah, we've been quite close to CoinShare because we've been seeing a lot of Bitcoin mining companies recently, and they're all going headlong into AI. So naturally, we're looking quite deeply into it.

And there are two parts of AI. There's the reasoning, and then there's the training. And it's the training that takes a huge amount of GPU compute power. And on the face of it, when you see what DeepSeek's done, DeepSeek 3.5 or something, it is on a par to ChatGPT 4 or Claw 3.5 Sonnet. So it's quite impressive. And it seems like it's this kid in a garage spending $5 million or $6 million or whatever it was that's beating the ai titans and um but what we thought was it was highly likely that chat gpt was being used for the training part

of deep seek and so all the deep seats doing predominantly is just um inference right now the inference is when you go on to chat gPT, you ask it a question. That's the inference stuff. Obviously, the really heavy work is the training. So, yeah, it looks like it's just a kind of a clone of ChatGPT 4, but I don't think we should just purely dismiss it on that, because

it does look like it has achieved something quite impressive. So, ChatGPT uses what they call 16- floating pod calculations. And whereas sort of deep seek uses eight bits, floating pod calculations. So they essentially have the computer mind for, for doing actually a very similar thing chat GPT is doing. But this look in a way the way they've done it, you know, that's a great

innovation now. But this is classic China playbook of stealing information rather than developing the IP themselves. Okay, I guess the real question. Yeah, so that brings a real question. Marcus, maybe I'll direct this at you. We obviously saw this massive market dip on Monday. NVIDIA losing almost 15% at one point, hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap. But that was based on the fact that China or DeepSeek had allegedly done this on their own. If that's not the case, shouldn't markets just absorb this and continue right back up?

Well, I think the market is probably bouncing back and it has bounced back already. But of course, as James was saying, there's been some technological improvement here. And I think the market is probably bouncing back and it has bounced back already. But of course, as James was saying, there's been some technological improvement here. And I think it just lowers the cost, it lowers the spending. I think coming into this week, we actually were worried a little bit because of the tech earnings that we're getting on Wednesday, today and tomorrow, that there might be actually some kind of pushback from investors, from shareholders, about all the spending without any revenues really in clear sight. And maybe that's what we're going to get. And that's maybe why we had this aggressive sell-off on Monday,

because people kind of were front-loading this sell-off. But I think what we have seen is some of these Bitcoin mining companies that have know dipping their toes into mining or ai data center hosting uh i think they have dropped actually a lot on monday and they have not really yet rebounded so i think that's actually a great opportunity and you know maybe james has a couple of names there but i think something like terrell wolf has uh you know dropped i think they dropped like 30 on monday which is you know a lot more than you know than nvidia but it looks pretty cheap now relative to you know where the bitcoin price is well overhanging a lot of these mining companies is actually getting concrete deals with ai um so most of them have not got these deals

with um ai or hyperscaners yet so applied digital being a really good example. The only one that really has is Core Scientific and it did suffer quite a bit on Monday. It's the only one with actually a concrete AI deal with a contract with Core for the next 12 years. I think what's interesting in all of this is, let's say it is deep to genuinely have, has created a computer science breakthrough and half the compute power needs to do the same thing,

we could well end up with a supply glut of AI compute power. You know, if you look at what the kind of plans on the front has, you could argue that they might fill that glut very quickly, but you won't need as much hardware to do it. So let's talk about then the effect on Bitcoin. So obviously we've had some volatility, but in a very, very tight range here, in my opinion,

we can call it 90 to 106, you know, 99 to 106, whatever it is. Obviously we've seen consolidation here. And we saw Bitcoin drop and bounce very hard on Monday, sort of on this news. What's going on with Bitcoin? I guess we had some disappointment with the structure of the executive order. So we don't have clarity on a strategic reserve. Maybe that was going to be the next narrative that was going to send us. But I think a lot of people very disappointed with how the market is performing right now. I'm not one of them. Six-figure Bitcoin is a dream

to me. But I think it's because people are massively overexposed to altcoins. But I guess we should just take a step back here and say, what's going on with Bitcoin at the moment? What's going to send us clearly in either direction? Marcus, I know you take a deep look at seasonality, February generally good. So what's going on here? Is this normal or do we need some action? No, I think it's normal that we have consolidated basically after the FOMC meeting in December where Powell was hawkish. But, you know, we had Christopher Waller coming out after the CPI data release in January, really mid-January, and pushing back against really this hawkishness. So I think we're seeing that the fat becomes a little bit more more dovish i think there's still two cuts priced in so i think the market shouldn't be carried away and you know as you said you know we're coming into uh february where usually you have seven out of

the last 10 februaries being positive and average returns is around like 11 it's the third strongest months of the year so i really wouldn't dismiss it know, we look back at last year, we were also struggling in January after the ETF inflows, you know, started really. And then we had a strong rally in February. And when you actually look back that the ETF flows, they kind of like stopped after the December FOMC meeting. But after the CPI data release, they started to pick up again. And then when you can see, you know, they're on the top right chart with the white bars. So the second chart is really the February. I mean, you look at the bottom right chart is actually the Chinese New Year, which officially is today really. And if you would have bought Bitcoin the 10 days before the Chinese New Year and held it for the next 10 days afterwards for like a 20-day

holding period, you actually have done pretty well over the last kind of like 13 years. There's only one down year. And then on top of this, we have the chart on the left, which is sort of like another breakout level that we reached last week when we made a new closing high. And the last three closing highs had the minimum return of like something like 26% return over the next month. So I'm not predicting this, but the market has moved in the 16,000 increments. As you can see the bottom left chart, we really, where we had this trading range from, you know, 90,000 now to 906,000.

And then the next trading range, if we can go above it would be like, you know, 106 to 122,000. So I think, you know 106 to 122 000 so i think you know we are on the way there i think it's actually quite strong that the market is holding up so well and has really bounced back quite aggressively i think uh you know on on monday really so i think it's actually quite quite bullish right now yeah i think it's interesting how kind of uh when you look at it sorry the other one but uh, but how bad January's have actually been. Right. I mean, January is, as I can see it here, just visually the second worst month after September. So I guess there should be no surprises here. But James, I mean, what's your take on where

Bitcoin is? And then after we do that, I want to kind of talk about what's happening with the altcoin market. What's your take right now on Bitcoin? It doesn't matter what crisis is in the markets, regardless of Bitcoin. Bitcoin tends to react negatively to kind of bad news. And we saw that, but it's been remarkably resilient in terms of bouncing back very quickly. I think from a macro perspective, there are a couple of headwinds that Bitcoin faces. So today we've got FOMC. They may start to acknowledge the inflationary pressures that trump policies may cause um so if you imagine you're having a big crackdown on immigration

and therefore you don't find all the farm workers and other workers in some of these low-paid jobs that could be inflationary in that respect but on the other hand uh we could well see the uh the fed mentioning the market weakness uh such as nvidia and therefore they should be a little bit cautious i'm not saying i've got them there's no one-handed economist here or anything like that but um i think generally we saw the markets panic a little bit. We saw about $150 million of outflows from Bitcoin this week. But then yesterday, they started rebounding again. So it's $50 million of outflows. So generally, I think, given what's happened in the broader markets,

Bitcoin has been quite resilient. I do like the point you made about the executive order. I think the market's one reasonable to expect him. Issue an executive order which just said, buy Bitcoin now. Sure. And in fact, I would have been disappointed if that's what he created. What's incredibly encouraging, he's creating a working group that's got 180 days to come up with policies.

And one of those obviously is the bitcoin act um so we don't have yes they're going to create the bitcoin policy act now but you know cynthia lomas is leading this she was the one who proposed this it's her baby but if she can get this passed through congress that has far more greater longevity than just an executive order which says buy bitcoin right now so i actually think this is a really positive outcome what's happened from the executive order. And as time goes on, the markets understand that and absorb it.

And I think it will provide far greater credibility. Exactly what I've been saying. If you guys were there watching Nashville Bitcoin conference, Trump gave the large speech, he alluded to it, and they brought Lummis immediately out on stage to propose the bill, right? The strategic reserve bill. So there's clearly a structure and idea in place as to how this would pass and be pushed forward. And Trump was very unlikely to step on her toes when they allowed her to make that announcement there, right? I mean, they're working together to get this done the right way. Whether it will or not,

I obviously can't say. Trump's been remarkably consistent in his promises towards crypto. And in fact, a lot of things, he's been remarkably consistent this time around in delivering on a lot of what he's proposed in the election. So he's sticking true to his word for now.

Yeah. Yeah, and something, Scott, that you said earlier about the you know the supply squeeze really that all these ptcs are going to be removed from exchanges i think that's really an incredible chart and we have you know we look at this chart like every week basically and you know when we analyzed who is actually buying bitcoin it's really these wallets between 10 million to 100 million. They're really the most aggressive. You know, it's not really small retail. And maybe we don't really need retail in this move for BTC. And, you know, and these wallets between 10 to 100 million,

they don't need to sell. I mean, what we have seen really over the last, you know, couple of months, you know, 12 months really, that there has been, yes, maybe ETF buying has paused, but there have not really been a lot of liquidations really, you know, in the market. And I think that's really quite interesting. So I think it's really going to not only just stable hands, but there's no incentive for people to kind of like liquidate or sell ETFs. I mean, you know, we have Larry Fink, of course, going around saying this is a long term asset. And, you know, he looks pretty

good. 700,000. He had never given a price target before that I can recall. And at Davos of all places, right? Yeah. So I think it's, you know, really quite bullish. And I think it's actually quite constructive that we're holding up here. So I think we can see this squeeze higher. And I think there is an incentive to keep prices high. What you just described, though, might be the problem with altcoins and why this time has been different so far. I won't say this time will necessarily be different. I don't know what's coming. But in the past, if you had Bitcoin make an all time high and consolidate, you would have seen massive action across all coin markets, which we know is retail, right? We would have seen Ethereum following potentially certainly would not see coins returning to their bear market lows, which is what we're seeing right now. Literally, tokens down 60, 70% in a matter of weeks. But maybe that's because retail is not

really here and it is these institutions that are driving and they're driving strictly in Bitcoin. I mean, we do have some positive news on Ethereum. Their active addresses surged 37% as institutional and DeFi interest grows, but Ethereum continues to languish. I mean, James, what do you make of all this? Yeah, I mean, our investors are being a lot more discerning at the moment, this time around, this cycle. You see that in Ethereum, I think in the past Ethereum would have really rallied hard and it hasn't this time. I think it's addressing a lot of concerns around the Dengkun and the profitability on layer ones. And layer twos are really having quite a lot of great success, but it's addressing a lot of concerns around the Deng Kun and the profitability on layer 1s.

And layer 2s are really having quite a lot of great success, but it's not translating into any kind of value accrual for Ethereum itself. So actually, that news is really encouraging. I mean, Ethereum over the last three months has accrued around $4.7 billion worth of inflows. So investors are buying, and I think they're seeing this kind of – some of these challenges proposed by Dan Kuhn are going to be surpassed, particularly with this bean chain proposal where they're reordering some of the EIPs. I think investors are seeing that quite favorably,

and I'm seeing actually – Ethereum is kind of on sale at the moment. It's quite cheap relative to sort of the massive rises that Solana has seen. You know, I'm concerned. I mean, Solana has been very popular. And it's seen in the survey I've just written, I've not published it yet. It highlights that actually a big uptick

in Solana holdings by institutional investors. But, you know, don't forget Solana is 80% of Solana's volumes on meme coins. That is kind of a house of cards. And if you've got discerning institution investors coming in, I think they're much more likely to favour something like Ethereum over Solana because it's got much more substantive, you know, we see risk, I keep on calling it risk-based assets,

real-world assets are rising. We're at $16 billion and counting. So that's really encouraging. Is that what's driving this to active addresses? Listen, Ethereum still, for all the FUD around it, it's got by far the most developers.

It's got by far the most TVL. It's clearly got by far the most institutional adoption. Sol's clearly got by far the most institutional adoption. Solana has just become the casino. And I don't say that in a negative way, but it's a casino. I mean, at least now I did see this story, which is very important. You can now buy Trump sneakers and watches with your Trump meme coins. So we are getting utility from that very important meme coin.

But otherwise. that very important input but otherwise well i mean it may be so this the success that well the interest in at the end of the rise in the active addresses maybe an offshoot base so looking at github data and active devs base has just seen an explosion in devs it's like ten or a thousand active devs there's only a thousand active devs on Solana. And obviously, base is all on Ethereum. And that could have said that that growth, that explosion of growth and usage through base could be an offshoot of the rising active addresses on the layer one. Yeah, I mean, I think there's like a few interesting aspect

that maybe the the amount of ease that's being staked is actually sort of like peeking out. So I think that can be sort of, you know, a risk factor. But when we look at the fees that are generated on Ethereum, or within the Ethereum ecosystem, they, you know, had like a mini peak in December of like $240 million for the month. And this month, we sort of like have halved it. And I think we had like consecutive months since August last year of higher and higher. So that kind of like supported the rally in ETH basically.

But we are now, you know, in January at the same level basically as in, I think, in October last year when ETH was like at $2,500. So, you know, from that perspective, and I think the the ease fees being generated is more and more i think it's quite correlated actually to the price of of ethereum itself so we look at this quite closely and i think it indicates that the market is overvalued yes maybe the number of addresses maybe there's an uptick but not actually how much they're doing so when fees are lower it just tells me that there's not too much demand and And I think we're seeing this also in gas fees. I mean, gas fees are, you know, six, seven gray, right? I mean, we are like super low. Yes, it has to do with the upgrade last March, but I think there's just less activity. Unfortunately, I think that was kind of the big disappointment, you know, after sort of the Trump inauguration, where many people expect some DeFi, you know,

renaissance. And when you look at the derivatives markets, where suddenly actually this week there was a flippening where suddenly the implied volatility for puts has been rising above the ones for calls. So there is more demand for puts now than there is for calls. So people are actually more worried about the downside protection than really the upside opportunity here. So I think the market structure looks a little bit weak. And we all agree that there's huge potential, but more needs to happen. But are we at the point now

where most of these tokens may not ever catch a bid? I mean, we have the barbell, right? Memes on one side, Bitcoin on the other side. A few other things have gone up, but I think we had an encouraging moment when XRP and HBAR and Algorand and some of these dinosaurs had that moment of six, seven Xs

that gave people hope. But it definitely feels like altcoins should have been performing exceptionally well in this period. That's all. So how many altcoins now are revenue generating? And that's a question we should be asking ourselves. If you were to invest into a company

and seven years later, they're still saying, oh yeah, I'm not bringing in any revenue, you have serious concerns. And there are plenty of altcoins out there that fit in that category. How long does an investor have to wait before this altcoin is a success?

You know, Tezos is a really interesting example where technically it's brilliant, but it just hasn't had the kind of the user growth that you would require, you know, that kind of Metcalfe's law sort of thing, a growing number of users really to add value. And I think this is a challenge that many of them are facing. If they can't uh differentiate themselves against bitcoin

or ethereum or solana then then how are they going to have any kind of success in the longer term particularly you know particularly if you've been around for seven years then yeah it's time to throw the towel in as an investor and find something that's more interesting i think you know the crypto it's human nature to just get wrapped in up in a great story and all the hype around something but then at some point you know the time rolls out and you see who's naked and you know and this is where we are possibly right now in the altcoin space we need to see like true revenue generation and true user growth from something yeah and and to marcus i, and the money just doesn't trickle down, right?

You have the same degens who were trading these utility tokens in the past cycle, pretending it was about utility, but it was really speculation, right? And those people are trading memes. And there's no new people to buy the rest of these altcoins because they're buying Bitcoin ETFs. One of the best charts from last year is really how the Bitcoin dominance went from, you know, 40% to 60%. And, you know, we are still at 57%.

So it's still like, you know, like a smooth sailing for Bitcoin here. But I do think, you know, with the FTX implosion, you know, from a few years ago and some other, you know, coins going down. And I think we had this huge correction with Solana back then. I think a lot of the VCs actually got burned. And I think they didn't really come back where people sort of like moved on then to sort of the AI revolution, as you might call it.

So I think there's sort of like a lack of capital for a lot of projects. And they depend on some marketing budget and have like longer lasting themes. And I think this cycle, we're sort of struggling what is really the real narrative. The real narrative means, yes, maybe, but it's not going to bring in the big capital.

Last cycle, it was all about how DeFi is going to take over, TradFi, and it's going to take out the back office and middle office of these large banks and financial institutions. I mean, that was like a real story last time you know last time and there was also of course you know the advantage of really higher yields being paid in in crypto than in um sorry in crypto than in then in tradfi and when you look at you know ethereum staking yield it's just like three percent i mean it's literally you know 150 basis points lower than the treasury yield i mean why

would anybody risk you know capital into that and i think that's how the market has sort of like evolved where you know the the biggest narrative for you know for the outcomes i'll call altcoins with ethereum is really just like staking and staking is like three percent yield and then ethereum you know horribly underperforms bitcoin for the last two years. I think it lost completely its beta function. So I think investors are right to just focus on Bitcoin predominantly and just put some money into some speculative tactical moves. I think that was the trade last year and I think it's just a trade this year where we just need to be patient.

Yeah. I mean, on the Bitcoin side, James, just quickly, here was the story about the reserves plunging. We talked about that, right? And I just want to make sure we mention these things. MetaPlanet's going to buy 21,000 Bitcoin by 2026. We're going to definitely see more institutional adoption adding to the balance sheet. I have zero question about that. And you have the Czech Central Bank.

This is the chief, so not just some guy, proposing. It's actually going to be on the docket of five up to five percent of reserves to bitcoin now i'm not saying that's going to happen but this momentum the fact that this is on the docket in so many places seems really compelling for bitcoin i wrote an article called strategic reserve fomo and this is maybe what we're having it was on our blog you're welcome to read it we were kind of doing a, saying, you know, we were actually,

quite a few years ago, we wrote an article about value in Bitcoin and guessing that some central banks would buy it. It fundamentally makes sense that they will. And maybe they fund it through, say, some gold or something like that. So, you know, last year we saw $100 million of outflows from gold,

$44 billion of inflows into Bitcoin. So, you know, clearly people are, and we had clients actively saying, yeah, we're selling some gold to buy Bitcoin. So it kind of makes sense that a lot of central banks would propose this. I did an estimate looking at if they bought, if they took 5% out of their gold reserves and bought Bitcoin with it, that's $110 billion worth of Bitcoin demand of all the key central banks around the world. So that's a really positive outcome. And then, yeah, you've got in our fund and our blockchain equities fund, we have an active theme identifying what we call a Bitcoin yielding companies like Microstrategy, like Metaplanet. And there's some other really interesting companies such as Sema Scientific and others

that's starting to do this now. And I do think this is this trend is beginning to catch on and we'll just hear more and more news of doing this. A lot of these companies are doing it because they want to hedge currency risks and actually Bitcoin is quite a good hedge against fiat currencies that are printing more than one. And I think there's also like two stories that sort of like nobody really talks about right now is of course the ftx payout right it should be around 60 billion or maybe something like four to six billion will be paid out eventually i think that can be you know some some trigger but we also

think there's going to be you know several ip this year. I think the chance is quite high. And when you look at, there's like 10 companies that are probably could go IPOs, anything from Kraken to Circle, potentially maybe even Ripple or something. I mean, they could fetch something like 100 to 150 billion if all these 10 companies would IPO. So I think there is an incentive to keep the Bitcoin price high this year because that's how Wall Street has played the game during the previous cycles. The Coinbase IPO peaked out in, the Bitcoin price peaked out then in April 2021. And some other listings, the December 2017 BTC listing and the CME, I think there is some incentive. So I think we can paint a positive story.

It's just unfortunately that the higher beta currencies are just not performing where usually more the action is and more the fun is. I guess we'll see what's going to happen there. It's going to get crazy. I can tell you that regardless. I mean, we might get a Doge ETF, right? I mean, we're going to probably get us a lot of ETF. I think a very high chance we get

an XRP ETF. Maybe these could be catalysts for altcoins. I personally doubt it. I think altcoins will still do exceptionally well. You're just going to have to be more selective. But I do think later in the cycle, James, to your point, the ones that actually have utility may shine this time. I guess we will wait and see and pray because it's 9.31 and I've kept you guys a minute over your time. I'm sorry, guys. Everybody in the description, you can follow both Marcus from 10X Research and James Butterfield from CoinShares. I love the insight that you always bring. We were going to talk about the Fed, but I think it's just going to be kind of a nothing burger today. And maybe if Powell sneezes in the wrong direction, we'll call him too dovish or too hawkish,

and then we'll move on with our lives in the next few days. So maybe unpack that after it happens. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining. Thanks for having me. All right, guys, before we move on to Mr. Christopher Inks himself. I'm going to tell you all about Aptos. So Avery, the new CEO of Aptos, and I did an amazing podcast conversation, which is coming out this Sunday. They will unpack a lot of the reasons why I'm so bullish on Aptos, why I've accepted them as a sponsor, why I'm working with them on this long-term deal. Obviously, the price alongside all coins, we don't really usually talk about coin price, but a lot of people have pointed out that it's dropped. Also dropped when Mo Shake left and Avery took over.

But those are complete nothing burgers because they're doing exceptionally well. I mean, just to put some data to it, no ecosystem is really growing faster than Aptos factually. Over the past week, these are some of their milestones. 2.751 million new wallets in seven days, which is record-breaking. Total number of wallets now exceeding 49.8 million. I think it was literally like 100,000 in August. Daily active users increasing 1.43 million wallets using it,

39.4 million transactions in one week, and weekly active wallets an incredible six million setting another all-time high and seeing stories i don't really care about the price of the token but here's why aptos price may jump 85 as active addresses soar this just speaks to the uh idea that they just had that the platforms and the projects and the layer ones that are actually bringing utility and growth and seeing Dapp development and seeing increased adoption, those are the ones that should perform exceptionally well. We already saw a huge move on Aptos. The SUIs, all these kind of new blockchains everyone's talking about, I firmly believe are going to have a major, major move later in the cycle when people get done playing with their little meme coins. So, guys, that is what we've got for you on Aptos today. I really highly encourage you to check out the conversation that's coming out on Sunday because we dive deep into it.

And also just an incredible conversation on the future of AI and crypto, which seems to be what everyone wants to talk about. Without further ado, Mr. Christopheropher inks what's going on man we're dead again 102 000 is dead oh i know it's so awful every time you come on we're dead hey man you know i can only control what i can control right um i you know i like to start off with the DXY here because I do continue to believe it looks like that top may be in. And so you can see that we had this nice impulsive breakdown and close here below that support. Rallied up rejection, which is important and continued to fall lower here. You know, I think we get a bit of a bounce here, but overall looking for rejection and to continue down lower. And if we can get that, you know, I think we get a bit of a bounce here, but overall looking for rejection and to continue down lower. And if we can get that, you know, again, it just kind of puts toward

that idea that the dollar is going to weaken against the other currencies. But, you know, it's what we've been looking at for, you know, a year and a half here as we kind of develop what looks like a flat correction here before coming down. So, you know, we'll see how we can get with this follow through here. If it doesn't, it doesn't. You know, it is what it is. But right now, you know, we've been doing all this kind of just sideways. I mean, really, we've been sideways since what?

Since November of 2022. And now we've got this little deviation to the upside here, right back bouncing into it you know it's kind of uh it's been tough for people that are looking for instant gratification you know and not that i'm talking about anybody in crypto twitter or anything but you know is what it is right nobody could be um let me see here. We've got Bitcoin. Nothing's changed. Again, we had this. You can look here as a descending wedge here with a throw under. Again, based on the volume and price action relationship here, this does look like accumulation.

We had a slight thrust up here over the top as I continue to talk about, you know, most often what we have when we have an accumulation or reaccumulation range is once you print this spring, or sometimes it's just the last point of support, which means there's not enough to push it down below the range support. You usually get a rally up into the swing high area, a rejection and pullback, and then you get the big break. In terms of Elliott Wave, it's a first wave up, second wave pullback, and then you get your third wave, which is your participation wave, which is where everybody goes, oh crap, I shouldn't be shorting it. I need to get out of my shorts. I need to go long. And so that's why you usually

get that third wave as the longest, largest wave. But yeah, it looks like we've got a one up here and then we got an A and then a B as a triangle. C coming down here again. You know, great, you know, candle right here at the low. Another great candle at the low right here. Basically, guys, if you're looking at this, you need to get above whatever this is, whatever exchange you're looking at. This is the index, Bitcoin all-time index so This is

What day is that? That's January 26th. So that's swing high in this case It's 105 430 and 70 cents here you break out above that that should indicate that that low is in and you're headed up Wave 3 off this low here has a minimum expected target of 135,812. That'll give you five waves up around 148, 150,000. I don't believe that's the top though. I think we just get a decent pullback from there. And then we break out higher again. And that's when you can look, you know, potentially 180, 200,000, something like that. So nothing going on here that's freaking me out at all. Nothing when I should be freaking anybody out. Even the pullback right here, you can see is just right back to this low volume node acting

as support as we would expect. So, you know, if it drops down below this swing low here at about 97,738 on this chart here. Then maybe we can look at, okay, maybe something else might potentially go on, but even then, which it's still such a, you know, such a small pullback overall with this over, with this whole rally here, which does appear to be one, two, three, four, and five waves up. So looks pretty clean, looks pretty good. Not worried at all you can see the daily stochastic rsi has uh reset down and oversold here uh rsi remains bullish why are all coins dead why are all coins dead why are they dead why are all coins i will say some of these all coin slaughter has been pretty impressive i mean these things are like back to

their you know last, mid last year, summer lows. I mean, and it's, then they were like doing great at the beginning of December. It's down 70, 80% since December, some of these and Bitcoin's $102,000. That's not like previous cycles so far. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. But you know, again, I can't even act surprised here. You know, I said it last year around this time. I said it was likely to be a different style, a different look at the cycle this year because of the Bitcoin ETFs. We weren't going to see, at the time I said, and I still kind of think we're not going to see the same kind of cycling that we see. Or it may still be there with the crypto bros, the ones that are trading through the cycles. But the fact is, we've got all that kind of money flowing into Bitcoin, you know. I see some people saying, oh, it's just old holders of Bitcoin buying ETFs.

And I don't see that because we have a significant, you know, influx of money coming in, you know, into the ETFs. And Bitcoin itself is still going up. I mean, if all you were doing was moving from one to the other, I mean, you know, price isn't really going to do a whole lot. You need more money coming in to kind of push that price up. So I think that's a misnomer. I think people are, you know, kind of lying to themselves about that. You know, everybody's out there trying to find something to make them feel better about why they don't understand what's going on. But, you know, again, I think you talked to Matt Hogan over there bitwise, don't you? All the time. Yeah. See, I believe it was him that said the same thing a little bit after I said it,

when we were talking about this idea that this cycle would be different, that, you know, you're going to see alts go, but it may not be what you're used to with, uh, with cycling from Bitcoin into, into those alts, you know, and it's been what we've seen so far. Now, does that mean we can't have a, a similar off season to what we've seen in the past? I mean, that's still possible, but you know, I wouldn't necessarily hang my hopes on that. If I'm trading all, so I'm looking, I'm just looking for what's rallying. I mean, you know, everybody tries to do it, uh, you know everybody tries to do it uh you know tries to to be really um simple about it and go through the cycles and that's fine but you know if you're still sitting around going man where's alt season where's alt season and you haven't made money with alts over the last year what are you doing like you said there's been huge

you know meme coins were huge last year there'd be huge run-up in that right i mean you had the xrp that moment where xrp and algorand and hbar pulled six five to seven x's each you had these coins like aptos and suey and all these kind of the new shiny layer ones all had their huge moves that we you had everything that was ai related we just have had bubbles and they've been a lot quicker and there hasn't been the dart throw moment where everything just goes up. Yeah. And I think that's, what's throwing people off. And, um, you know, I was listening in with the earlier, the show earlier with the guys you had on there. And, um, yeah, you know, I think it's the same. I think, I think a lot along the same lines of what they're saying as far as, you know, retail involvement and, um, you know, what, what's going

on with all that, you know, and, you know, because of what I do and, and, you know, what, what's going on with all that, you know, and, you know, because of what I do and, and, you know, and I teach here, uh, you know, we still get a lot of the same questions, uh, from new retail participants and whatnot, uh, you know, about all season and all these things going on. Um, and you know, I mean, what are you going to do? You know, you're in the market. The idea is to find the trades. And there's always trades to be found. You know, again, we got we got 17 billion altcoins. Right. So, I mean, the hard thing is trying to go through all the charts, but there's always something to be found. As you said, even with the other ones coming down, look at things like, you know, look at how Solana's done. Look at how, you know, some of the others have done. So they're there.

You just have to pay attention and stop just waiting for all season because if all season, as we've known in the past, doesn't come, you've just wasted an entire cycle just sitting on your rear end waiting. So with that said, I've got a few charts here. CHZ is interesting to me. It looks like we might get a pullback a bit further, maybe to the daily S1 pivot at around 5.5 cents, somewhere between where we are in there.

I think that'll be about a 78.6 pullback. But it looks like we've got a leading diagonal here. It looks like we've got an A, a B, working on a C, so like it's somewhere between where we are in here. Looking for an impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance. That's going to be my first clue. That'll say wave two is likely complete. Breaking out above wave B, which just so happens to be right around the daily pivot.

That's about, it's just about 10 cents. If we can get a breakout above that, doesn't have to close. We can just get a wick above it on the 15 minute. That's fine. If we can do that, wave three minimum expected target up here at almost 38 cents, 0.387. So you can see here daily RSI just about to get an oversold. Stochastic RSI bottomed and oversold on the daily here. Looks good.

Looks like it may be gearing up for that move so but you know definitely want to at least wait till you break out here unless you're zooming in a smaller time frame and you see a reversal happening at this low um and then we've got you know if you we've got this kind of across different also i just picked some of them here we've got gala here looks like we've got a descending wedge you can see we're finding support right in this previous resistance area here right prior to the low volume node well wherever you're looking there um and then there is this above it here this support resistance area right here and so you know breaking out through that area that descending resistance should send us off. That would give us a pattern target minimally here of about 11.5 cents. So right now, you know, we're kind of sitting here at about just under 3 cents.

But breaking out through here, just over maybe 3.5 cents here. So that's a pretty good run up there toward 11.5 cents, if we can get that breakout there. But again, just kind of pulling back in wedge form to previous resistance as support. And like I said, you're seeing this across a lot of alts on this daily timeframe. So this one's GALA. Here's another one right here, TRAC, U-S-D-T, T-R-A-C. Again, descending wedge into this previous resistance support area, low volume node. So, you know, again, with this and finding some support right now here at that S1 pivot on the daily.

We did have this pump up on this current daily coin and drop back down. We'll see how the daily ends out. But if we can get it, you know, impulsive breakout and close above this descending resistance, minimally, pattern target again, get us a target up there of about $1.58. And that gets us right about, is that the all-time high? Yeah, right up there at that all-time high area on this KuCoin chart. So definitely some setup there for that as well.

And by the way, these pattern targets aren't necessarily like the high that I expect them to go. These are just quick, easy targets based on the structure. Let me see here. We've got this one right here. Again, same kind of idea. This is Crow, C-R-O-U-S-D-T, previous resistance support level area right here. And then again, it is that, once we pull this back here a little bit, it gives us that low volume node acting as support. So we're getting these wicks down into it. Again, though, descending wedge. So if we can get an impulsive breakout and close above that descending resistance,

that's a good indicator that the low is likely in there. And then we would look for, again, pattern target up here, around 35 cents on this one. So right now we're around 12 cents, about 13 cents. Could run it up there to 35 cents, maybe even higher on that. But, you know, it continues to look good here overall we just have to little patience wait for you know don't try to jump in before and get that done uh this one's deep this one i don't like uh uh it was setting up good here at the

beginning i was looking at maybe you know it could be at support to be fair yeah well everything's dumping again i said it could be at support to be fair but Yeah. Everything's dumping again. I said it could be at support to be fair, but I mean, you know, I think we're seeing dominance is rising again as we speak once again. So making another kind of new local high. So. Yeah. Which is why, you know, again, we're looking for, you know, we're waiting for the impulsive breakout, you know, and close above those descending resistances to kind of signal, okay,

maybe that lows in a lot of times when I post these charts, you know, people get overly excited. They're like, oh my God, that means I need to get in now. No, wait for the setup, right? That's why we end up losing a lot of money as traders is because we jump in before we get some sort of confirmation. But even when you get confirmation, it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to be successful, right? There are no guarantees in trading other than you're going to lose money. And the newer you are, the more money you're going to lose and the more often you're going to be successful, right? There are no guarantees in trading other than you're going to lose money. And the newer you are, the more money you're going to lose and the more often you're going to lose it. Other than that, there are no guarantees.

This one right here, maybe we got a deeper pullback here. But, you know, if we can get a rally back up through here without breaking down, this is KNC on the one hour, Break out above that 49.69 area. That would actually get us. I'm not sure we're going to get it because it dropped back here more, but 0.5181 would be the initial target there. That'd be the third wave, fifth wave up here at 0.05268. But importantly, what would happen from then would be, you know, you get this move up here for one, you get the pullback for two, and then you'd look for a three probably getting up there around 60 cents up here. So, you know, at the top of this kind of low volume note here,

but that's only if that holds, obviously, if that breaks down, you know, that gets invalidated. You could probably watch for a breakout of this descending resistance here, again, impulsive breakout and close, you know, to maybe say that the low may be in if it does break down here. But we did have, you know, we did have some bullish diver, or, you know, we got lower lows here with price. We got higher lows here with the oscillator. So we did have that bullish divergence. Just got rejected around that S1 pivot here on the hourly and the pullback. But

we'll see if this low holds here and we get the rally up, pullback and the rally up. Some of these might be slower rallies than what people are going to be waiting for. You know, a lot of people, they expect, you know, the V-shaped bottoms and recoveries. But these might take steps like I'm showing you here. You know, again, you get the kind of the, you know, the move up, the pullback, and the breakout kind of come down. And it may not move as quick as people might want it to. So it's just about paying attention but you know we're seeing the same similar structure there uh across a lot of different alts with those

descending wedges into potential um reversal points it supports so we'll see if we can get them love it i mean we just need to see something i think yeah we just need to see an ethereum pump and then everybody will be happy or will be like a disbelief then all coins will go yeah i mean still don't hate ethereum i know you're you're uh bullish on ethereum as well um i don't see any reason to freak out it's a gross chart but like you know like we're back to 2021 here i need to btc this i mean you know easily uh let go if you're wrong it's a great position we just saw 37 percent increase in active wallets institutional adoption it's got etf i mean i get it but man like i love i just love 99 of the time when everyone says something's dead that actually

has that isn't a beanie baby you you do well yeah yeah exactly you know it's that point where you know everybody starts finally giving up on it and throwing a fake, you know, we've had that on Ethereum a few times already, and then we've had the big moves from it. So, you know, the hardest thing I think as a new trader is to understand what you just said really means, because they'll look on their timeline, they'll go, oh, everybody on my timeline is bearish. And so we got to do it, but, or everybody's bullish. So this is going to happen. But, you know, we got to remember these these social media timelines are curated for you, you know, based on what their algorithm thinks you want to see, you know, which is based

on your post, maybe your direct messages to people, all that kind of stuff. So, you know, you don't want to directly go off that and go, OK, everybody's bearish. Everybody's bullish. Because you see algorithm full of you're right. Yeah. So yeah. Don't insult BB babies by comparing it to more of that. Give me more of that. Come on algorithm. Make me feel better with the, uh, you know, it's, it's, it's tough if you're, if you're new to trading, if, if, you know, there's one thing that you know, uh, that a lot of, uh, you know, people that have come into crypto really don't understand, you know, the newer to crypto is, man, when you have years in the market and you've seen multiple cycles, you know,

especially across multiple markets and you start seeing that, Hey, a market isn't, you know, crypto isn't really special compared to, you know, to stocks or whatever. It's the same type of people that come in and do the same things the same way we did when we first came in, uh, to the markets. And you just see it over and over again. And usually it takes a few cycles before you start catching on, but most traders are out before then because they lose all their money. They, they don't get it. They, you know, they don't prop, uh, practice proper risk management, know so uh oh look at that I love it I love it by the way my other biggest position is Solana outside Bitcoin Ethan slaughter right but at least Solana you've

got it going up so they can't give you too much check about that I can they can they can call me a shit coining degenerate something or other I don't know. But more of this. I have been saying it for a long time. I have believed that ETH would do well. But listen, to be fair, I didn't say it would do well during that time generally versus Bitcoin. And it has gone up. It's just underperformed Bitcoin. Yeah, no. I mean, you know, we were in the 2000s. Well, you know, where were we to, you know, beginning of 2024, Bitcoin was 20. I mean, Ethereum, $2,200. You know, two years ago, $2,300, we're talking Beginning of 2024, Bitcoin was 20. I mean, Ethereum, 2,200 bucks.

Two years ago, 23, we're talking about 1,200 bucks. So yeah, maybe it didn't outperform Bitcoin. But damn, if you were looking at stocks like a normal person, you wouldn't be like, shit, I only went up three times, but Amazon went up four times. I suck. Yeah. Right?

Exactly that. Exactly that, man. It's not that it hasn't done well. I mean, Ethereum, since it was under a thousand, you know, and holding it from 82 bucks from the last cycle. Yeah. I had a discussion with Juan Leon over there at Bitwise last Friday on my show. And, you know, he's really bullish on Ethereum as well.

He kind of holds the same, I think, thoughts that you and I hold. Bitwise is generally, yeah. Yeah. But, you know, looking at it, really, it's going to take off and it's going to leave a lot of people behind because they are of the sentiment that you're showing here.

And world, I mean, not that Trump, like not that World Liberty Financial is actually Trump. But listen, when you see how much he's involved in this market, he's buying tens of millions of Ethereum in a clip right now. Maybe that's because they're going to need it to see liquidity

for a new meme coin on Ethereum or something. But it's not like nobody's out there buying this stuff. Exactly. Exactly. I can be wrong, man. I can be wrong, but I'm still way up. I'm just not up as much as if I had done something else. I can live with that.

Yeah, exactly. See, I think it's the one thing that most people aren't getting here. Everybody's trying to get on the new shiny thing. And they're usually, as a result of jumping from shiny object to shiny object, most are losing money, right? The reality of it is, the way I look at it is that I don't worry about jumping on shiny objects. If I catch one, great. But all I care about is that my portfolio continues to do this, right? It just continues to go up. That's all I care about is that my portfolio continues to do this, right? It just continues to go up. That's all I care about. As long as it's going up, I'm good. I'm not trying

to turn a hundred dollars into a million dollars overnight. And because of that, it means that I take less risky trades. It means that, you know, I wait for my entries. I wait for my setups. I don't just jump in because there may be a chance. And yeah, so it means I take less trades throughout the year than maybe some other brand new people into trading. But it also means that the trades that I do take are more likely to play out. And with the great risk management anyway, even when they don't, it's nothing. So, you know, my portfolio continues to do this. And that's what, you know, what everybody should be looking for

instead of trying to get rich overnight. It's that getting rich overnight mentality that's breaking most traders. Yeah, totally agree. Totally agree. Someone said, check latest tweet from Watcher Guru. Now I got to see. I hope you're not trolling me, but it means we got some news.

Justin Trump. That's a pretty good story. Let me see. What do we got here? Show us, man. Don't keep us in Trump. That's a pretty good story. Let me see. What do we got here? Show us, man. Don't keep us in suspense. I'm working on it, man. We got a lot of screens. Just in Trump media to invest in

Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies. There you go. Corporate adoption from DJT. Take some of that money and put it in. I mean, that's pretty big news. That's good news. If you're looking for a reason that's not chart related to do it, I mean, there you go. I mean, that's putting Bitcoin and others on the balance sheet.

I mean, I'm looking now. I'm reading it. Trump needed to invest in Bitcoin as truth.fi is officially announced. Okay, we'll dig more into this, but there you go. Right? Everyone's coming. I'm looking now. I'm reading it. Trump needed to invest in Bitcoin as truth.fi is officially announced. Okay. We'll dig more into this, but there you go. Right? Everyone's coming. They're coming.

Ethereum's going to go up a billion percent. And if you missed it, you're going to come back here crying bare tears. I'm just kidding. Chris, everybody follow Chris at Texas West Capital. Chris and I are working on something. We'll get to it very soon. I promise we're going to have a very big announcement, but you're going to see a lot more of us together.

I can assure you of that. So get ready. But I'm not ready to announce it yet. Yeah, yeah. But the thing I love about it, all our birthdays, right? They're in that same area. I think your wife's, mine, and yours right there, right?

So. Yeah. But give Chris a follow at TXWest capital texaswestcapital.com i gotta run and get ready for spaces check out aptos check out chris thank you guys have a good one chris bye take care Let's go.