The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin Surges Despite Crypto Chaos – Here's Why October Could Spark A Massive Bull Run

Episode Date: September 10, 2024

Join James Butterfill, The Head Or Research at CoinShares, as we break down the latest in crypto! James Butterfill: https://x.com/jbutterfill My friend from The Arch Public, Andrew Parish, is joining in the second part of the stream to provide an update on the $10K algorithmic portfolio.  Unleash algorithmic trading with The Arch Public: https://thearchpublic.com/  Andrew Parish: https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus  ►► WANT MORE? JOIN MY COMMUNITY AND GET EVERYTHING WOLF OF ALL STREETS! 👉https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ ►► ALSO JOIN US ON ROUNDTABLE! SIGN UP, INTERACT & EARN 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/tvQKLRn ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Investments The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Bitcoin had a big day yesterday, trading up as high as $58,000 before dropping now to about $56,900 as we are recording. Is this a meaningful move or just more sideways chop in the summer doldrums in a bad seasonal September? And if it is seasonality in September, what can we expect in October and November, which are historically the best months for Bitcoin and for crypto? When I want to unpack inflows and outflows and everything that's happening with institutions, we go to James Butterfill from CoinShares. And of course,

Andrew from Archpublic on the back half. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel. Hit that like button. Sorry, we're a bit delayed today. Sometimes we have technical issues and it happens, guys. And I know that you all waited patiently. I could tell in the comments that you were just very excited to be here. And we're not at all upset that we were late. No comments about that at all. James, good morning.

How are you? Hi. Technical issues are all my fault, but we're here now. So yeah, very good. It happens all the time, literally all the time. So nothing on your end unexpected here. Very quickly, just taking a look at prices here. I mean, we're down a couple percent for September.

I talked about the seasonality early. But to me, pretty much just chopping sideways through the 50,000s here. I totally agree. This is just sideways chop. I don't think we're going to see anything truly meaningful until we get some macro data that's going to allude to this 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut. So, you know, the best way of looking at this is CPI tomorrow

coming out, lunchtime UK time, I suppose, in the morning in the US. And I think it's quite possible it misses expectations. It comes in below expectations. And I think that will really build the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut being warranted. Probably will provide some sort of support to Bitcoin, but I don't think a huge amount. And I think the market's in a mode now where it's just really wanting to see actually the Fed do a rate cut. That'll be on the 18th.

So I think it's any true moves upwards, I think we will need to see. Well, we have to wait till the 18th of September. It's interesting, Nidig here, Greg said, Bitcoin retakes 57K, but potential positive catalysts are sparse. I disagree. I mean, we have a presidential debate tonight, and I think that we've seen Bitcoin literally move with the expectation of who may or may not win at any given moment. You know, there were price charts overlaid with polymarket expectations that were pretty

compelling in the early days, certainly when Biden was still the candidate and when Harris came on board. We have the debate. As you said, we have CPI, PPI this week, and then we have the rate cut. So I think that there are a lot of positive or negative catalysts, but catalysts, nonetheless, things that people will be watching to potentially get this market taken in one direction or the other. I think what's been disappointing is that we've had some pretty bad macro data. I mean, we had the huge revisions, downward revisions to payrolls for the prior month, and then the August payrolls missed expectations by quite a bit. And yet the market didn't even react. And in fact, last week, we saw $726 million of outflows in a week,

which is the largest on record, well, matches the largest on record seen in March. So investors aren't necessarily triggered by some of the events we've seen, which we usually expect to happen. And that's why I think if the market's really in kind of no mood to look for signals. They want to see something like the Fed cut. But yeah, I think you're right on the politics side. What's really interesting in the presidential debate, I'm definitely going to be watching this because it's going to be very entertaining. But regardless, I don't want to sort of adopt a position of who's going to get ahead. he's pulling market like trump seems ahead but you can look at this event this evening and we could see this in june as well when trump biden

event occurred you could see real time how markets were how investors were feeling about whether trump was getting the upper hand or whether biden was and i think tonight we'll see that particularly with kamala versus trump if trump really starts to get the upper hand think tonight we'll see that particularly with Kamala versus Trump. If Trump really starts to get the upper hand, I think we'll really start to see, you know, intra, minute by minute, a response by the Bitcoin price rising. And likewise, if we see the price decline, I think it's probably going to be people believe it's in Kamala's favor in terms of her comments. Yeah, I was trying to find the article as we're talking here, but I don't have it. But I know that there was even a betting market on PolyMarket as

to whether Trump would say crypto or Bitcoin or not, and seemingly a pretty low chance. If you remember at the Trump-Biden debate, because Trump had just come out so in favor in that month or two right before that there was actually a very high expectation betting that it would be a main issue mentioned at the debate. Obviously, there wasn't a debate, really. It was just two guys yelling about golf scores and one guy who was very confused. This time, it seems there's way less expectation that Bitcoin will be on the docket. Is that in line with what you think? Yeah, I mean, I definitely think the elections are a big mover. And these debates will have some sort of price impact. But it will be like a one-off. And I suppose if you get close to the

US election, we'll know either way whether Trump's going to win or whether it's inevitable or not. But for me, it's longer term. It's about monetary policy. And people have been talking about rate cuts for the last two years, and yet we've still not had one. It looks like it will start in September, and I think it will continue to go on. So we see further rate cuts in December and then next year as disinflation really kicks in. To me, that is the primary driver for all of this. And interestingly, this is when we might see this decorrelation between risk assets like equities and Bitcoin. I don't believe Bitcoin is classed as a risk asset.

Well, it's volatile and it's risky, but it's not a risk asset. I think it's a store of value, an emerging store of value. And when we start to see, say, equities really underperform because of a weak macro environment, I believe that's when something like Bitcoin might really shine. So we see that de-correlation between the two asset classes. Yeah. I'm in this interesting place where everybody seems to think a 50 basis point hike now is more bullish for risk assets, but isn't cutting more indicating that something's wrong and you got to get ahead of it? Historically, the yield curve unverts,

which it finally did, and then the Fed pivots and risk assets dump. I think it reflects the Fed is behind the curve on this one. And I think there's increasing consensus on this that actually the Fed should have cut a lot earlier than this. And quite often, if you look at, say, corporate defaults, the Fed rates, personal loan defaults, loan delinquencies, and corporate delinquencies, they lag by about a year and a half from Fed rate rises. So it takes those transmission effects of rising rates take quite a long time to filter through into the economy, which means actually the Fed has to be quite proactive to ensure they don't really damage the economy. But we're in a situation now where

the damage is already done. We're just not feeling it yet. But you're starting to see early signs of that happening. If you look at loan delinquencies on auto loans, they're now the highest they've been since 2010. That's an early signal of things to come in my view. Yeah, I agree. I want to talk more about volumes, inflows, and outflows. You kind of mentioned, obviously, that we had this massive seven or eight day, as much as 700 million, all the way up to 1.2 billion reported, depending on how, I guess, how many days you look at. Eight the way up to 1.2 billion reported, depending on how, I guess, how many days you look at. Eight days, it said 1.2 million was a big article yesterday. But we've actually had relatively high volume for Bitcoin. As I'm looking here,

Bitcoin trading volume surged 2.8 trillion in January to August period. So I understand, I guess, the first half with the ETFs, but the summer has been seemingly very slow. So I was surprised that this sort of pushed through August when they were giving this data. And we have now gone back, for what it's worth, to inflows, although very small, 28.7 million inflows. Inflows and outflows, to me, I think, are just going to fade into the background as narratives because they're just going to become assets that trade and they trade with the market like anything else. But I was surprised to see this level of volume. Yeah, those flows, I think, are suggestive. People might be bottom fishing at the moment and certainly seem to have seen a rebound in prices. So it could be an interesting signal in that respect. But in terms of volumes, yeah, earlier on this year and late last year, we were doing 20, $25 billion days on trusted exchanges.

So that's a select group of exchanges that we measure that don't do any kind of trade spoofing or wash trading. And now throughout the summer, we were seeing quite disappointing, maybe sort of $5 billion, $7 billion days. And just over the last week and a half we've seen it ramp up massively we had a 23 billion dollar day on friday and the average for last week every day was 20 billion dollars so really encouraging the markets waking up although we've not seen a really material impact in price it's just telling me there's a huge amount of polarization in the market a lot of buyers and a lot of sellers, essentially. And I think it's reflective of people's indecision about rate rises, whether it's 25 or 50. People are really debating this view. And that's why we're seeing a big pickup.

It's interesting, though. That's a big... So obviously, we know that the summer has been slow. But relative to previous Septembers, we would expect exceptionally low volumes in September, right? $5, $8 billion a day in past years. And now you're talking about 2025 in the first week of September. So the price action may be similar, down a few percent for September, but the interest, very different. Yeah. And to put that in perspective, they're big numbers. The S&P 500 trades around $30 to $40 billion a day. So Bitcoin alone doing those kind of numbers is huge, really. Yeah. And so, I mean, the next question obviously is if seasonality is particularly important.

And if it is, does that mean we're getting really excited for October and November I think seasonality is rubbish really it's very hard if you you know you can look at some sort of patterns visually but then if you decide to stick that in a portfolio and make some money from it it doesn't work sadly um some people say sell in May and stay away but you just need one year to wipe out all those games you've made over the prior five years. September, you know, is naturally just empirically looking numbers, not a great month. And I suppose so far we've fulfilled that. But I think this is like moving on to a similar sort of thing about cycles in Bitcoin, perceived cycles.

So the halving is one and everyone's saying now we should be seeing the price rises, and we've not seen them. I just think I struggle with this one because we've only got a sample size of four for halvings. And you can easily argue that the price rises we saw in 2020 post-halving were to do with the COVID stimulus checks, not necessarily to do with the halving. Therefore, you've got a sample size of three. And empirically, statistically, that's just not

enough really. And a wildly different market in 2012 or 16 as far as the participants than 2024 or even 2020. We're now getting much bigger institutional participation. Despite the outflows we've seen over the last couple of weeks, we're still at a point where we've seen around $16 billion of inflows year to date. So that's incredible. That marks it as one of the best performing ETFs ever of any asset class. So I still think there's a very positive story to talk about with Bitcoin. David Collum Individually, I think the top three or four are all the best three or four ever for ETFs. BlackRock and Fidelity certainly are the leading two, and the others come in very close.

I'll tell you what's not doing that great are Ethereum spot ETFs thus far. I saw a chart that was really wide, and then it kind of came in like a heartbeat dying, and now we've just got a flat line, right? Okay, let's take Grayscale out of the equation. So Grayscale have their incumbent Ethereum fund that has been around for years. And they also have created this mini trust that has just launched with all the other ETFs recently

and it's much lower cost, et cetera. And it's attempt by them to sort of mitigate some of the outflows from their incumbent because the incumbent fund is really expensive, et cetera. So people are shifting over to other funds. Exactly what I actually have with Bitcoin. If you just take those newly issued ETFs without Grayscale, actually it's about $2 billion worth of inflows.

So not bad, but the kind of depressing thing is that those inflows have dried up completely i mean last week we saw i think 10 or 15 million dollars of inflows into those funds specifically but that is offset offset by the grayscale incumbent fund which has seen about 2.6 2.8 billion dollars of outflows and also there's been a few little tricks they've taken they've been pulling money out successfully over the last few years to go into this new mini trust. So that mini trust has seen a billion dollars of inflows, but it's just seed from the old fund. Yeah, it's like the 10% of the old fund, basically. But yeah, it does. It's not looking great. And if you look at the

relative volumes between Bitcoin and ethereum uh there's huge bitcoin dominance and from a volumes perspective there so a quite disappointing price action um i actually fundamentally think ethereum is a really interesting and attractive asset um but it's competing or from a marketing perspective at least from something like solana which is still seeing inflows last week you know solana saw about $10 billion of inflows. Into what products specifically? Obviously, we're talking about the trusts. Yeah, actually, I think they're more European-focused funds that are seeing those inflows because there's not really much on offer in the US yet. Yeah, I found my witty chart of the Ethereum spot ETF flows.

That's exactly what they look like. That's the chart I saw. But that's actually a heartbeat, but it looks exactly like that. I mean, we're talking about dead, dead, dead, right? So I guess what's the catalyst? So, I mean, I don't think these are dead, by the way. So I think that this makes perfect sense and aligns pretty well with expectations. These launched in a sort of like panic because nobody's expecting the approval.

There's been no marketing. We're in the worst part of the cycle. I mean, just there was, these were so far behind the eight ball. And of course, I mean, Bitcoin's brand name and launched first, right? I mean, Ethereum is, it looks actually from a fundamentals perspective, quite attractive. At the moment, the gas prices are super low, so it's cheap to transact. You know, the layer two, we're arbitrary on optimism. If you look at transactions per second, they're really picking up.

They're doing about 380, I think, transactions per second. And if you look at something like developer activities, this is something i've talked about on various twitter spaces and people couldn't believe me when i was telling you developer activity has fallen like 70 percent in altcoins um and that's true um and so people are becoming devs are becoming much more discerning about what they're working on you know solana's got 700 to a thousand active devs ethereum has three and a half thousand active devs so there's a lot more developer activity so i think over time it should um outshine something like solana and don't forget solana i mean there were meme traders and they were all on ethereum because of the trading costs they've all moved to solana but i think that actually makes solana quite vulnerable you know if those if those meme trades fall away, what is left for Solana?

And that's what worries me for that asset class. And I think that's when perhaps Ethereum will start to outshine. Interestingly, we've seen a lot of that meme coin trading, although I haven't looked at the data in the last week or so, was moving to Tron. You had this pump.fund sun pump replica over on Tron and all of a sudden the Solana people were leaving for Tron because it was fast and cheap. And that's all a segue into this article here on Bloomberg that says there's a non-speculative crypto use case that's actually taking off. It's not meme coins, guys. It's stable

coins. Are stable coins the real killer app? I've been saying this years, literally in these words. Like the killer app of crypto is stable coin. Bitcoiners don't like that. Bitcoin also is a killer app of crypto, if you guys are wondering. But stable coins. And stable coins are happening on Tron, right? And so you can see on Ethereum and Tron. But as stable coins become larger and more of a killer app, Solana is going to probably lag behind since they don't really have the adoption of stable coins yet.

Yeah, and I think stable coin usage is very hard for us to figure out geographically where it's going because it's all in US dollars. But we suspect it is occurring to a lot of these emerging market countries like Nigeria, South Africa, Venezuela, those kind of places. We also believe it is the sort of gateway drug into crypto, if you see what I mean. People start trading or using stablecoins and then it is the same sort of portals that people use crypto for. So I think one of the sort of misunderstood things is actually stablecoins could be very positive for the broader crypto environment.

And they're very positive for the U.S. dollar. Yeah, I think so. I mean, definitely they're not sort of the biggest demand of the U.S. dollar by any means. I mean, Japanese government is, the Chinese government, et cetera, buying U.S. treasuries in much greater chunks. But it's something that the SEC is certainly thinking about and monitoring. It's actually a difficult thing for them to regulate in many respects, because if you say to stable coins like Tether, you can't buy US treasuries anymore, it's actually a

very hard thing to do. But I think that's one of the risks the stable coin market has at the moment is sort of increasing regulation particularly in europe at the moment it's so interesting though because the united states stable coin legislation that's been proposed there's been very little action but we've seen it from both sides from the senate and from congress and almost all of it focuses on the idea that a bank would have to issue stable coins, which effectively means Tether would not be allowed in the United States. And we could end up with this situation where only regulated US bank-issued stable coins could be on US exchanges used in the United States,

but Tether itself could still be the 18th or 19th largest holder of treasuries in the world. I just think people would use VPNs, to be honest. It's really hard to control these kind of things. But that said, market share in different stablecoins can shift dramatically. So BUSD, because of its incredibly low costs at one point, so that's Binance's stablecoin, was gains about 30% market share, 40% market share. In the space of a couple of months, it was quite incredible. And it does lead me to believe that if these regulations,

it would be whack-a-mole. I don't know if that's, you know, the bad- But they did, yeah, whack-a-mole. Yeah, we know whack-a-mole. Right, but if it's whack-a-mole, they whacked BUSD fast. Yeah. Right? So, like you said, it got 30% of the market share. And then a simple charges or an investigation into Paxos, which was unfair because they're just the issuer, killed BUSD in a week.

As fast as it went up, it was dead. Immediately switched into Tether. That's what happened very quickly. And so there are other stable coins out there that can be used. And I think that this is what will happen. People will immediately switch to another stablecoin. And you also now, I mean, with Tether, there was always so much FUD and all these theories and it was not fully backed and maybe it wasn't in the past.

But when you have Howard Lutnick, who's actually on Trump's transition team, out there from Cantor Fitzgerald saying, we have all the tether and we believe in this stuff, it seems like certainly I would say if Trump wins, maybe because Howard Lutnick is there and he's literally custodying the tether, the backing tether, that we could see a much better situation for tether specifically. Yeah. I mean, just broadly, the regulatory environment for crypto would be, seems to be much more accommodative under Trump administration than Harris won. And I just even, I think that we can also encompass

in that monetary policy. I do expect monetary policy to be looser under Donald Trump's regime. And actually, potentially taxes as well. I mean, that was, and when Trump won the first time, I think that's what a lot of people miscalculated. They felt that Republican administrations aren't good for risk assets, but he came in straight away and cut taxes. And that was incredibly positive for risk assets. And he could do similar sort of things as he's done in the past. And that would be very positive for risk assets. And he could do similar sort of things as he's done in the past.

And that would be very positive for Bitcoin, much more relative to a Harris administration. I think it's going to be very interesting to see what happens, obviously, with the debate tonight, if it shows us once again that Bitcoin is simply tracking potential election results. So you'll have to come back on in October and we'll see how we're doing with seasonality and if the elections had a huge effect, because I love talking about it, but I would love to see it actually in real time. All right, guys, follow James, of course, on X, everywhere else. We love what you do, man. Thank you so much. Thanks for having me on the show.

All right, guys. Now, obviously, it's tuesday and since we're not doing macro tuesday on a monday on a tuesday on a wednesday or whatever shows we do we've been doing a lot of macro mondays on uh tuesdays we've got andrew back and uh that's always exciting i'm gonna tell you a secret so when you're you know when your camera's on and you're backstage i can i can see what's happening in the window and you changed your shirt yes i did and i was i i can't tell you how tempted and close i was to just passively bringing you up uh on stage while james and i were talking while you were changing your shirt listen there there's a there's an inherent sexiness involved here so i can't do anything about it. I understand the reaction. I didn't want to trigger all the women in the chat.

There's so many. I understand the reaction. I really do. It's something that I can't control. It's my cross to bear, Scott. It's my cross to bear. We did a survey, actually, and we found that 99.7% of my viewers are females between the age of 25. It's the other way around.

Who really, who favor bearded men in their mid to late 40s. It was a weird survey. Yeah. You can't argue with science. No, you can't. Especially data science. You really can't argue with data science you really can't 2024 you have to believe it all yeah anyway so uh i'm glad we got through that obviously andrew here from arch public we've talked about it a million times what we haven't done because we didn't have a week is update you on the progress so you guys might remember how long we've been doing this now

four months uh about four and a half months? About four and a half months. Yeah. Okay. Four and a half months, $10,000 portfolio that we've traded with. As you know, this thing trades infrequently. It's very discerning. It makes its moves when the market is perfect. Where is our $10,000 today on September 10th? Yeah. So a couple of times, it's going to trade a couple times a month there's been a couple months where it's only traded once for the month um but as we stand today between the time that we started with you four and a half months ago until now we're up 37 percent um so we're almost we're almost cresting that that% number. And here's the thing. There's a couple of things in finance that talk about the internals of performance. One of those markers is the Sharpe ratio. And the Sharpe ratio

is going to take a look at performance versus the amount of time that you're actually risking your capital in the market. and that's a big area where our algorithms really really shine and for example this 10k portfolio our your capital is at risk about five to six percent of the time in the markets over this four and a half months and you've extracted nearly 40 percent of returns in that four and a half month period. That is a remarkable reality with what we do. A couple of folks that have been in finance a long time that are our clients, we put a video out with a gentleman by the name of Rob Beckham, who was a financial advisor for almost 30 years. That was one of the reasons why he signed on with us

and committed a lot of capital was because of that sharp ratio. He was of the opinion that we were going into a period where he wasn't sure what the market was going to do. So instead of just making a bet and hoping for the best, he's like, let me look for something where I'm not necessarily in the market all the time, but I'm still generating some sort of return. And it has worked out fabulously for him. The other thing to talk about is besides the portfolio that we talk about here, we have other levels of our products, our concierge program. And just two weeks ago, we had a week where the concierge program was up 10.7% in one week. So we had three different algos that traded three different times in that week and generated 10.7% of returns just inside of a four-day period.

In fact, that was, I think, the week of Labor Day, maybe, I believe. No, that's wrong. It was the week before Labor Day. So beyond just the $10,000 portfolio that we talk about here, our other subset of customers have been benefiting in a way that's pretty remarkable. You know, 10.7% return, again, with that sharp ratio where you're not in the markets for an extended period of time is really something. People love it. You know, people just- This is my favorite comment yet. So 4K, four months, 4K, and then he puked. Why? Guys, if you're making 40% trading stocks in four months,

if you extrapolate that forward, beating the market that badly, and you don't like it, I'm sorry, crypto people. By the way, how are you doing in the last four and a half months with your crypto portfolio? I'm not doing great. I'm doing bad. Yeah, exactly right. So, you know, it's like that meme, you know, Scott traded meme coins, you know, in the last six months. And it's, you know, before and after picture.

And they look the same. And he lost $45,000, right? So it's... Best way to make a million dollars in crypto is to start with $7 million. Yeah, right. So it is a... Our algos have significantly outperformed broader markets. We post that on the ARK public X account constantly. We talk about, okay, what is the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow done? What has Bitcoin done over that period of time? You know, the reality is, is that they've just simply significantly outperformed. There's the website.

It's thearchpublic.com. I prefer being mediocre. Let me hit it again. I prefer being mediocre. Thank you. By the way, if you sign on and you get that little book, that manual that we sent out, it's 90 pages long. There's real value and alpha there. So even if you don't sign up with us, we give you some stuff for free. You know, we have, you know, significantly outperformed just about every metric and every other asset that existed out there over that kind of sell in May and go away period. Right. That sell in May and go away period has been rough across all assets. NASDAQ has gotten bludgeoned on two different times.

The S&P and the Dow done next to nothing. Bitcoin has had a difficult time just sitting around in the mid 50s to inching up to 60 every once in a while. So the bottom line is, is there's consistency. It's hands free. You know, you're not having to do anything on any given day you just let it do what it's supposed to do yeah okay it's amazing we talked about it let's talk about uh seasonality because it's the main uh topic here and i just want your take on it although i should tell people that you've been giving well i mean on the website but here we are we're right now we were at 52 we're back to 57 hooray big deal up down volume inflow outflow catch phrase yeah my my thesis is um it it has been and it will be that you know people that are are have an issue with um you know bitcoin moving around the way that it's currently moving around.

They simply weren't here in 2021. They weren't here in 17, 18. They can't have been here because Bitcoin isn't acting at all like it did back then. If we're talking about a 25% move from the highs five to six months after those highs. And that's all the move that we've gotten down and we've stabilized at that level. Oh my goodness. What are we talking about here? We were down 60% plus at this same time period after the 21 highs. I mean, it wasn't even close. And so the change in volatility, the change in the way Bitcoin works in the way that it trades on a daily basis is there's simply a much, much higher floor and eventually a higher ceiling because Larry Fink exists. That's that's that's my thesis. You know, that guy is going to gobble up and BlackRock is going to gobble up every single sat that you can, that you're going to let go of.

If you let go, if you sell your Bitcoin somewhere in the system, BlackRock's got guts dipped, right? They're going to go and get it. If you've got a problem with 56, 57, 52, by the way, we're coming out with a now go that will help you with that. That will find a way to buy Bitcoin lower on your behalf and stack those stats for you. And you'll be able to compete with Larry and what they do. That's another conversation for another day. But, you know, the fact of the matter is, is that crypto, I think crypto is in a consolidation period. I think the meme coin stuff is over. It'll have its bumps, but I think that was the biggest part of the bubble. Well, here's the thing is that, you know, if meme coins bounce

up 30%, you know, crypto Twitter will go crazy, but they're down 90%, right? Don't do math. Yeah, so there'll be another wave that will happen. There'll be another thing that will happen in crypto, and you'll have an opportunity to make money, especially if Trump wins the election. There's going to be, you know, the floodgates will open from a regulatory standpoint. By the way, I do the other another thesis that I have is if Harris wins that that may not be good for crypto at large. In the aggregate. But great. Great. Great. Yes. Yes. If you're consolidating all of that crypto money and Bitcoin is the only thing that's thumbs up good from the regime. I don't see how that's not a good thing for Bitcoin. That capital is going

to consolidate into Bitcoin. People are going to freak out in the comments. We're not saying Trump's bad for Bitcoin. I'm saying that if you believe that Bitcoin is a flight to safety and that people who panic buy Bitcoin, which is literally the narrative for Bitcoin. Yeah. And they should be freaking the hell out, just like the guys are going to go buy ammo and guns and meals ready to eat and get their bug out bag and move to Puerto Rico and whatever. Those are the same people who should be buying Bitcoin if they're afraid of what the government's

about to do. Well, you'll get a... Your meme coins might not do that good. Yeah, there's going to be several groups of folks. But if Harris wins, you have that subset of groups of folks. But you also have another subset where, you know, crypto for all intents and purposes, meme coins and the like are not going to be allowed in the United States. So that capital will have to move to Bitcoin. That capital will be forced to liquidate and move to something else. And a good portion of it will move to Bitcoin. That capital will be forced to liquidate and move to something else, and a good

portion of it will move to Bitcoin. So not only will the survivalists who you just described buy Bitcoin, but crypto folks will be forced to become Bitcoin, not Bitcoin only. They won't want to do that, but they'll be forced to park their money somewhere, And a lot of it will move to Bitcoin. It's just hard to find a path where Bitcoin is not the kind of asset that you want to continue to acquire over time. There's not a path where you say to yourself, oh, no, I think I need to sell Bitcoin. That narrative just simply doesn't exist and hasn't existed for a while. We can shop and we can have 52, no, I think I need to sell Bitcoin. That narrative just simply doesn't exist and hasn't existed for a while. We can shop and we can have 52, 57, 61, 63. But again, those aren't meaningful adjustments in price. It's consolidation and it's waiting for the next coil and spring.

Yeah, you definitely never sell your Bitcoin, especially if you want to be a member of the Bitcoin maxing community. And the lesson that I learned very hard in the last cycle is never keep it somewhere that they're going to lend it out on your behalf. Yeah, yeah. Don't do that. Don't leverage or lend. You know, Caitlin Long is somebody that does a really good job of talking about the, you know, don't lend or leverage your Bitcoin because it will go away. Yeah, it's really magical yeah yeah it's it's be careful copper field worthy yeah there's a you know risk um risk is often associated with something that you don't think is risky right oh okay i just lend my bitcoin i can get it out. You know, I can do. Nope. When you leverage something, it's no longer yours. Yeah.

Dave Weisberger's in the chat. Awesome. Oh! This isn't a Bitcoin price, but rather the risk is a centralized co-option. Yeah. Okay. All right, Mr. Smarty Pants.

Use all the big words. You're cool. We're not, Dave. We're going to just replace Dave with us us i mean replace us dave remember imagine replacing dave with us no replace us with that's what i meant to say anything else that's on your radar right now before we uh i think that yeah i think that your chart of ethereum etfs is apropos. Not to pat myself on the back too hard, but I'm going to. You said it. I'm going to do it very, very hard. I said in the short and medium term that Ethereum ETFs would have a real, real hard time for two reasons. One, the grayscale problem, and the

grayscale problem is real. You get outflows every day from the biggest ETF in the Ethereum world. And I think they've puked up almost $4 billion of an $11 billion product so far in the first two months of the existence of that product, of that asset class. And then at the same time, it's a very, very difficult narrative to find to talk to boomers and Gen X investors who have never heard of it before. What is it? OK, it's digital oil. It's the digital app store. That's not Apple. But what are we talking about again? So when people think of crypto that aren't in this bubble that exists, that's crypto Twitter, the first thing they think of a Bitcoin,

and that's all they've ever heard about, and it still is around, and they've seen Larry Fink talk about it on CNBC. Okay, I'll buy some of that. I've got exposure. Now my kids will shut up, right? Ethereum, people call it ETH. People call it Ether.

People call it Ethereum. What word are we even using for it? It's just a difficult narrative. I prefer urethra. Yeah. Honestly, given that about half of the people that are talking about investing in it for the first time probably think that's what their advisor is saying. What? There's a new is this from Pfizer or Merck urethra? Is that a new prescription? What are we doing? So it's a tough narrative. And then on top of that, you've got programmatic outflows for all intents and purposes every day from Grayscale. So that narrative, even if you're interested in it as a client, you go and look at it and you say, well, wait a minute, everybody's selling this every day. Why do I want to catch a falling knife? Advisor, you've told me never to catch a falling knife. I'm going to wait. I'm going to

wait. Do you think that urethrium is the disease you're curing or the medication for the disease? And the follow-up question is why are the most high-profile commercials in the United States for medications that people can't buy individually? Why are pharmaceutical companies allowed to aggressively market medications to customers who need a prescription from the doctor? And why do they all make you have anal bleeding, insomnia, death by 17 knives when you read this small print? Listen, we started this conversation with me disrobing and changing my clothes. We're finishing it with urethrum. So I don't think this could have gone any better, honestly. Okay, perfect.

Well, I have to end actually with this because I have your face in other places that I need to show them. Yes. Not shirtless, but- Whoa, that's your face. Holy smokes. It is. The big one's my face. So this is the website, thewolfofallstreets.com.

If you guys haven't checked it out, I'm sad. Okay, but anyways, if you do check it out, it's more of what you get here. This is Into the Pack. See that guy right there? Can you see him? Yesterday, it's more of what you get here. This is into the pack. See that guy right there? Can you see him? Yesterday, we did another interview. And I, he's over here again.

There's Dave Weisberger right there. If you guys want more of Dave Weisberger right there, these are interviews I do. And then if you come over here, you got more Andrew. Yeah. Bitcoin short-term price catalyst. Ethereum faces difficult short-media term price cover. You were telling people that there's your pat on the back. Yeah.

I watched this video. Yeah. Right? Yeah yeah so you guys have there yeah it's it's it's a it's a great website it's it's full of alpha uh full of stuff that people don't get you know um the idea is to give people information before other people have it um so thus the definition of alpha and um i think it's great i think it's great that you're doing it i think it's great the contributors that you have um so yeah people should sign up and people should get engaged yeah people people should get engaged you know people should get engaged with your your site um again you do great work and i will say this again. I say it as often as I can. Your readers, your viewers, your listener, everybody that's in your community, they're fantastic humans.

Beautiful women. They're great people. All beautiful women. They're great people. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're all dudes like you and I who... There's a lot of women that were commenting when we were talking about the women. They're here. Oh, okay. I'm telling you guys.

And as we end this stream, first of all, follow AP underscore Abacus on X because that's Andrew. You can find more Andrew and everybody wants more Andrew. But I have to, on the way out, I have to, since we have now done a commercial for our website,

I have to give this disclaimer that if you use my website, you may have anal bleeding, die of insomnia, left foot pain, your right hip might explode. You may get explosive diarrhea, but otherwise the site is great.

Well, at our age, we should, you know, to end the conversation, we should always tell people to go get their annual prostate exam. Right. I mean, at our age. Dude, you have four times people to go get their annual prostate exam. I mean, at our age.

Dude, they put me up four times for it. Yeah. That's a thing. Colonoscopies, prostate. That's a thing. Yeah. Okay, I'm out of here. It's enough. It's enough.

We've had enough. Guys, check out the Archpublic. Check out the wallstreet.com. Check out AP underscore because that's it. See you, man. Bye. You bet. Let's it. Bye.