The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To $113K? Citi Just Raised Its Target By 38% | Matthew Sigel

Episode Date: October 1, 2026

Citi raises its Bitcoin target to $113K as institutional demand returns, even as Treasury yields hit 24-year highs. We also cover MetaMask’s staking security incident, Open USD launching with $1B in backing, and VanEck’s thesis that Bitcoin miners could become major winners from the AI power shortage — a key topic we explore with Matt Sigel. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you were someone you know is concerns about gambling, visit connectsontario.ca. Or call 1866 5 through 1,2600. Terms and conditions apply. City has raised its Bitcoin target by 38% to a $113,000, largely on the back of historic ETF inflows and changing macro tailwinds, which is an interesting take considering many

would view the macro situation as headwinds. Right now, I'm going to dig into all of that and much more with Matt Siegel from Vanek. Let's go. Good morning, everybody. And happy October to those who celebrate. those who deeply believe in the four-year cycle, Bitcoin should go up 40% today. Because if you remember, October's of the past in the four-year cycle, this is when things got massively ramped up. But I have a feeling that maybe we preempted that move over the past

couple months. We go ahead and bring on Matthew right now. Good morning, sir. How are you? Scott, how are you? I say that you also wore the crypto guy uniform today, which is the black shirt, although yours has sleeves. So, you know, we're not at not, not, Exactly the same. Okay, so let's let's just start from the beginning here with this first story. Citigroup raises 12-month Bitcoin target to 113,000 as ETF inflows resumed. They also raised 12-month target for ether from from-from. From-from. They wrote from there twice. From-from-240 to 3,028. So clearly the broader idea here is that we've entered a bull market or that we're seeing some shift after that large, you know, 24%

candle a couple months ago and entering a new bull market. Now, you and I have talked about this before, by the way, that we were kind of not four-year cycle believers, but it's certainly starting to feel like the four-year cycle is back. Yeah, what is that? A price target for ounce? I mean, you know, I don't think 113 is too much of a stretch over, you know, any investors' time period, which should be a year or so. So, you know, we had mixed views on four-year cycle. Jan actually called it perfectly and called the bottom as well. And so we looked for periods of Max Fear and added. And so we did end up adding some in the 60s.

But I'd say across the firm, once the gold correlation spiked, right, BTC gold correlation. So right after the Bessent move, that's when, you know, there were a lot of folks who were interested in that breakout. out and that correlation has held. So, you know, we're feeling a lot better in the four-year cycle. It definitely helps as well. Yeah, what I find interesting, I'm trying to bring up the chart right now. I looked at this the other day, but there's obviously the Bitcoin chart, and that correlation obviously has spiked since that time.

But, you know, you take a look at the Bitcoin chart here on the weekly, and it's breaking above the 50MA, making a new higher high right there, obviously. So the bare market structure is dead. And then you actually take a look at gold on the weekly and it's breaking down below the 50MA and making a lower high. So, you know, even though that correlation has been stronger, Bitcoin to me relatively looks like it's entering a new bull market where there could be fear that gold is, you know, heading down or going to have a long period of consolidation, maybe like Bitcoin did for months. Yeah, there'll be oscillations. Like the daily correlations are super high.

But then I think you can take a lot of comfort from the BTC gold ratio, which is still like 19, right? And maybe it bottomed around 15, all-time high, closer to 40 or 50. So that's how you can, you know, you can end up with a Bitcoin thesis of doubling in a year, even if kind of gold treads water. But, you know, let's see. You mentioned October. I was just looking at the seasonality charts. it's definitely the best month of the year going back here to 2011 average return uh wait a minute sorry august is the best year so august is the best year typically uh no october up 28

percent, excuse me, October up 28 percent, November 34 percent. So, yeah, it's a seasonally good period. I know there's a lot of election fears and, you know, definitely the higher rates are probably going to break something, but we're starting off a much more constructive price than at 60. If you have it pulled up, can I ask you, what about October's in 2026, 2022, 2018, 2014, this part of the theoretical four-year cycle? because my memory has it. Like in 2022, like we were 20, September sucked and then all of a sudden we popped really big right when the clock hit, you know, midnight on October 1st, but maybe my memory serves me wrong. October 2020 was only up 5 percent. So it was a relatively weaker one. 2018 was down 4 percent, 2014 down 12 percent. So good, good point. Like at this point in the four-year cycle, October is, you know, better than meltdown, but it's more of a, like, relief bounce to flattish.

Yeah, okay. That makes sense. And I kind of mentioned this before, but, you know, Bitcoin just posted strongest Q3 since 2017. And what I find very interesting here is that Bitcoin in the last three months, that's a quarter that people would not have thought it would have done well, right? So maybe that's the preempting of the pump that people were expecting for October. But up 40-something percent, I think,

and all of that happening while bond yields have been raging and are hitting basically a multi-decade high here. So in theory, you know, I think people believe that if bond rates are rising, that would put pressure on risk assets, specifically Bitcoin and Bitcoin would probably underperform. But at the same time, it's basically had its best Q3. So you could say that, as I kind of mentioned in the beginning, we're pushing through major headwinds, not really tailwinds here. Yeah, I think it was a positioning story. You know, we could just see people were paying up so much for protection in inputs versus calls. And so the first two legs of the rally were really more short covering driven.

That positioning is much more balanced now. So, you know, a future's open interest is not high. But when you look at funding, it's been positive for a while. when you look at what people are paying up now for calls, which are dominating. It's hard to say that short covering is going to move it. You're going to have to have to see real buying in order to get the price higher. Yeah, I guess there's two ways to sort of frame higher yields. I mean, as I can just show the story here, but, you know, this is just so people know how bad it is.

10-year treasury yield hits highest level since 2002 as global bond route gathers pace. So I was kind of taking notes on what my thinking on this. I mean, if you have higher yields that are driven by stronger growth and tighter monetary policy, you would expect that to be competition for Bitcoin, maybe, you know, risk assets underperform. But if the higher yields are going up and that's driven by deficits and debt supply and legitimate fears, that's an environment where Bitcoin might thrive because people are buying it for the debasement trade or is a hedge against that. So it's almost not really whether yields are rising, it's why people perceive they're rising and what the answer to that would be. Yeah. Like if the higher yields choke off the AI story, which is, you know, a legitimate bear case that people are grappling with, then, you know, there's a capital rotation where, you know, you had all that.

The whole debt market was primed to absorb a bunch of supply, right, and build out these data centers. Let's just say if the bears are right and Mag 7 cuts CAP-X because the bond market is like, no, you know, we're just not going to fund this. Well, you know, they may take 1% of that and fund a Bitcoin position instead. That would be like the rotation story. And then in terms of a, you know, higher yields causing something other than AI to break, let's say it's a financial. people have the Silicon Valley Bank episode in their memories where, you know, it's a one weekend or short dislocation quickly followed by a policy response that reinforces, you know, why Bitcoin exists in the first place. So, you know, I think there's, I mean, that's my bull case, which I believe in and I'm putting capital behind. Obviously, there's risks to that.

Yeah. I tend to agree with all of that, but there's totally sort of the other interesting part is that maybe Bitcoin is just kind of doing its own thing and it's following its cycle. And if you zoom back, you know, regardless of what everything else is doing, it seems like it's just right on schedule, which I, by the way, I find that crazy. Once again, I didn't think that was going to happen at all. But imagine if, you know, stock sell off and gold kind of sells off and Bitcoin just does its four-year cycle thing and, you know, it goes to $200,000 in the next couple of years.

people are confused as to why, and then we talk about the super cycle and how there's no four-year cycle, and then we get a 50% drawdown for a bear market and continue on. It just feels that way now. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I hope that the mining ecosystem can get a little bit healthier, you know. Hash rates are off. There is still off the highs.

You know, these Bitcoin miners can't even get wafer allocation to build ASICs. So they're, because they're competing with the AI companies for that, for those wafers. And it's actually not even economical for some. So, you know, I think you'd want to see that ecosystem get healthier that there's going to be people who want to commit multi-year CAPEX to combining this stuff. Because, you know, it does make the network less fragile over time if you don't have that kind of healthy, profitable ecosystem. But I'm probably nitpicking on that because higher price will solve a lot of those issues pretty quickly. Yeah, I mean, here you guys had this report. You wrote Vanek mid-September, 2026 Bitcoin chain check.

And the summary from as I read it was that miners are positioned exceptionally well for AI, right? Yeah, exactly. Which is, as you kind of just said, is sort of pressure. on Bitcoin itself because if they can go to greener pastures and just convert a data center to an AI data center rather than a Bitcoin mining, especially in a world where there's pressure to not launch any more data centers. They're uniquely positioned to benefit, but does that hurt Bitcoin? Yeah, so we had laid this out in a piece like four years ago predicting that 20% of Bitcoin publicly traded Bitcoin miners, electricity would go to AI instead.

that ended up being like more than 50%. So there's, yeah, there's just almost no one left who's able to, you know, still put resources behind it or wants to. It's just not economic at this level. So, you know, as you, then you come back to the tenure like, okay, well, if that business crashes, will they just pivot back? And I kind of like having that flexibility from an operator perspective, but that could be a very bumpy ride.

So basically the premise there that if AI comes under pressure, but Bitcoin's up 50% from here, they just flip the machines back over. It's exceptionally profitable to mine Bitcoin, and they weighed it out. What a nice position to be in is a up. Coin miner. Yeah, I mean,

there's tradeoffs to that because if you've already invested the 10 million bucks per megawatt to bring in all the cooling and this and that, like the Bitcoin mining is not going to solve for those economics. If you have sites here and there where you can move the machines and like some of the miners are talking about that, you know, then perhaps you can offset a bare market by doing other things. And definitely you can make your development pipeline. Maybe you can pay more than the developer who, you know, isn't interested in mining Bitcoin because you can do something for the first couple of years while that land is like fallow waiting for permits, waiting to be upgraded. We've seen these pipelines stretch out so long in terms of getting interconnect. So I do think that that's an optionality. I think that if you look across the entire digital

assets ecosystem, it's one of abundance. There's a million choices for everything. The second, you know, there's one interesting innovation. Someone else copies it. And most of these proof of state coins, you know, the inflation is is pretty consistently high. So that's where I find the pricing power. It's in, you know, Bitcoin itself. It's in the power to generate proof of work coins. So, you know, I do think proof of work is a really important thing. What if AI continues to explode and these miners effectively just become AI data centers and cease to be Bitcoin miners, or it's a very, you know, a fraction of what they're doing? What does that mean for hash rate and who picks that up and what does it mean for the security of the network? Yeah. I, I, I, I,

I think there'll be more privately held miners who are doing things for geopolitical reasons or other reasons. So that's why I always go back to that, you know, data set that we track of the number of countries that are mining Bitcoin is because they have a use case beyond just the pure economics, which is diversification, which is energy optimization. But it makes it harder as an analyst to track what the heck is going on, right? you probably saw like headlines in the earlier part of this year that Bhutan, which is one of the largest state sponsored mining, was selling their coins. Then a couple quarters later, they deny it. They've never sold anything. Like it's harder to figure out with with companies that aren't that aren't publicly traded. So I would just be looking at hash rate, you know, if it's going, as long as it's going up with the price, which largely it has done, you know, then we shouldn't be too worried. but yeah, I think it makes hash rate more important.

And maybe there'll be new capital formation overseas, but U.S. probably lose a share of hash rate. How do you consider this for your funds that are marketed as Bitcoin miners or Bitcoin adjacent? We've kind of hinted at this before, but is there a point where you have to take some of these out of those actively, you know, managed funds because they're not truly Bitcoin miners anymore? Yeah. So most of our digital assets, equity indices, the main one has a kind of a pure play element. So you basically have to have more than a certain percentage of your revenues and assets exposed to digital assets. And some of those names are going to come out. You know, there's still enough. You know, my strategy is more flexible. And as long as the company has, as kind of demonstrably either making money or saving money from the adoption of digital assets. It's in our universe and we have a lot more latitude. And I think that, you know, diversification and flexibility has helped us here to, you know,

not make too many mistakes in the bear market, you know. And then at the moment we've got the highest correlation of Bitcoin that we've ever had since the strategy launched. So, you know, much more concentrated. much more bull market focused. And, you know, I think these, a lot of these AI names are, they're already down 50%. You know, it's like it's not the time to sell them. There's actual valuation support. I mentioned looking for scarcity.

Like these names, these AI miners, you can value on just the leases that they've signed. You don't even have to assign much to terminal value of the data center itself or any ongoing development platform. So, you know, I think there's just a ton of negativity ahead of the election, Dario, yields, et cetera. I actually think that, you know, those stocks are really going to work here in Q4. You know, hopefully that's, hopefully that's with Bitcoin, too, but we'll see. I remember, you know, Iran was probably down in three, four dollar range or something. Mike Alfred was on here, and he made a similar point. He said, he said that, like, the, the equipment they own is worth more than their market cap.

this thing has to go up, right? And obviously it made it run into the 70s or whatever it is. I think it's now in the 40s. But I think if you dig below the surface, there's probably, as you said, just a ton of value in these things that people aren't seeing. I mean, literally. Yeah.

You know, there's two different business models. There's the business model of buying the GPUs and putting them on your balance sheet and competing with core weaves and nebiuses of the world. That's what Iron is doing pretty distinct from all the others. much more capital intensive, lower multiple business, frankly, because the contracts are shorter, but maybe more absolute upside if that business model really emerges to compete with hyperscalers. And then you've got the powered land names like the ciphers and the wolves and the huts

that, you know, look and to sign 20-year leases. They pass through all of their expenses. So very, you know, easy to model income stream. And, you know, that's where, you know, that's where, I think the valuation support and over time re-transition. And as you mentioned, come out of these crypto indices will probably happen for most of them. And yeah. They were just the most well-placed businesses ever for this AI boom. I don't know how much of that was luck or how much of it was intentional. But as I said, you know, in a world where it's become politically unpopular to even talk about data centers

and these guys can, you know, invest a bit of money in like a switch and they're just there. Yeah, I tweeted the other day. Like AI, AI investors are just waking up to regulatory uncertainty. Like Bitcoiners were forged by it. Like those companies have been facing hostile environment for many years. So it is that kind of hand-to-hand community relations, which kind of becomes a moat in an environment like this. Yeah, so let's talk stable coins because we had a major launch yesterday. Obviously, this was announced recently.

But now it's actually happening. OpenUSD takes on Tether Circle with a different stable coin model that's building money. I can't tell you what they're specifically referring to there. But the overwhelming majority of open standards equity will be distributed over time to partners based on how much they help grow the stable coin CEO, Zach Abrams said. I believe Zach also runs tempo, right, which is the, or one of the, he's related to Stripe in some way, shape, or form. And this is basically being led by Stripe. and he's also the CEO. So, yeah, I mean, from tempo, which is their chain.

But this is novel because, you know, you're talking about MasterCard, Stripe, and Visa, who are arguably three of the, you know, top four or five payment giants on the planet, launching a stable coin themselves and having all of that yield and value accrue to those companies. Right. This kind of flies in the face of, like, Circle being a publicly traded company, Tether, a privately traded company. And then you have announcements of bank consortiums launching their own coins, and you have announcements of regional and community bank consortiums launching their own stable coin networks in the world.

So I think we're just seeing a multitude of different stable coin consortiums and strategies launching and a huge arms race for who's going to win this. Yeah, absolutely. And we're in that mix backing Agora, which has a similar model, which has basically been returning all the economics to partners rather than keeping that float that supports. circles stock price, right? Because that is the profitable part. I think it's a, you know, it's a world of abundance for the, for the end user. This is speaking broadly about tokenization. The barriers to entry are are pretty low. It's easy to launch a stable coin. So liquidity is, is fragmenting to start. And there'll be a number of winners, but they'll probably be more losers than

winners and consumer surplus is going to capture most of the benefit. So, you know, I have, I have positions in kind of some stable coin oriented. We're, we're participating at the firm level more on the venture side of Anag Ventures, Wyatt, and Juan have written, you know, more than 10, 10 checks to founders since launching a couple years ago. And I'd say probably a third of them are like stable coin distribution layer companies like denari you know which is doing a lot of the back end of tokenization for for securities so it's a just super competitive space and yeah i think that i for for my conviction that's reflected in pretty small positions across across that rather than you know with things that are easier to to value you know yeah they do seemingly have

an interesting edge, right? It doesn't mean that they'll be the most successful. As I kind of read into this, you know, initially they announced 140 partners and it was every institution on the planet. And I think it was sort of hilarious because some of those partners came out and said, we don't really know what this is. And it kind of became a joke that maybe they weren't really partners and they were just logos on an announcement. But I think they answered that by consolidating down to five founders, to my understanding, which is MasterCard, Stripe, Shopify, Visa. and Coinbase, right? And then there's the curious Coinbase USC Circle Connection and then participating in OpenUSD. But yeah, so I think those five now are the founding partners who receive initial equity and actually

based on how much they participate and how much usage there is, that equity, I think, you know, is earned to some degree. And Zach Abrams, by the way, was the CEO of Bridge, which was the stable coin company that Stripe had acquired. But they seemingly have an edge here because I think Stripe also was using USDC for settlement on weekends and at night, and now they're going to use OpenUSD. This just seems like a lot of pressure on USDC. Well, every, every, I mean, I think every stable coin is going to need a USDC pair. So they just have that kind of original moat and first mover advantage when it comes to the OCC bank charter. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't count them out. I'm just, you know, waiting to see like,

what's the thing that makes the consumer want to use these? You know, like, you've probably been using the agents, but they ask for, you know, I'm comfortable handing my Amex number. I don't really feel comfortable handling them a stable coin address yet, right? Right. And which is funny, but you're like, American Express will help me if there's a fraudulent charge. Exactly, exactly. So these alliances, as you note, they're shifting.

They're very complex. Historically, the JV consortium structure just loses out to a very focused pure play. And so, you know, that highlights to me, again, that kind of 30,000-foot view that it's a world of consumer choice. There's going to be capital formation at venture level, but a lot of uncertainties and probably more losers than winners. because of the margin pressure across financials and fintech. I mean, can some of these, an open U.S.D and OUSD could succeed just as plumbing without it ever becoming popular with the masses, correct? I mean, if they're just using this internally for all their transactions and settlement, it could still become huge. And by the way, these five companies have committed $1 billion to liquidity in a $300-plus billion market.

So this thing is still a rounding error. Right? I mean, this is, yeah. There's no size here yet. I think we'll have to see, uh, who wants to put their balance sheet to work on the weekends. Um, because some of these promised like one to one conversions at the bank level, they've had to back away from, uh, because they were getting picked off and arbed. Uh, and I think that's an open question is it, you know, if, if the weekend settlement,

And if banks put their, put balance sheet behind that, then, you know, staple coins like this have a better shot. And, hey, a bunch of these crypto companies are banks. So they are wired to just move faster. Yeah. Interesting, I guess, convergence there of the ones that are getting those trust bank, OCC charters and what they'll be able to do to capital. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

And they can do custody. They're not, it's a very limited, so they're not allowed to extend any loans, for example. But maybe that changes over time, which brings us to the politics and the rulemaking and all that. Do you think that all these stable-quite issuers can succeed? I mean, is the pie just increasing large enough that everybody can find their niche and have a business, even if it's a boutique business and do well? Or do you think it will see? No, sir.

No, sir. And some death. Yeah. I mean, just look at the IPOs that from the second half. of last year. You know, they were largely unprofitable companies and stock prices are down generally 70 to 80%. So, you know, that's what that's what capital markets are eventually looking for. So that's, again, just sorry to repeat, to go back to that 30,000 foot view. It's like everything's fragmenting first. Eventually it may consolidate. When everything is fragmenting like that, you probably

have winners more at the venture side, you know, than. in, you know, the public markets where everyone's kind of facing disruption and margin pressure, and then the pure play is very expensive. So that's why, you know, we've been kind of underweight that space. That's, that's helped us. There's no specific news on it today, but I keep seeing these takes that tokenized equities will be, you know, multiples larger than stable coins. So stable coins are kind of giving us the first hint of what's coming when everything is tokenized.

So, I mean, how do you view it right now? The trend towards tokenization, things are happening very fast, obviously, with DTC talking about settling on these things. I mean, I think we all agree that largely things will be tokenized. The question is, how big will that market be? And I guess will it be investable by us? Well, we have to see, like, the thing is that the regulated companies have picked up their pace of product innovation, right? Like, if you look at how CME has responded to the perps challenge, yes, on the one hand, they're suing them, but suing their own regulator. But on the other hand, like, you can just look at their press release of new products, and it's fast and ferocious.

So the regulated side is kind of going to fight back a little bit. And for the end consumer who needs to live into their regulated perimeter and developed markets, unclear who's going to have the better mousetrap. I'm kind of sympathetic to both sides. Like the AMC guy who doesn't want things. Well, what's an SPV? Like, you know, his private companies already have the stuff essentially tokenized in tradfai form, right? As we saw from the SpaceX IPO, you know, we're going to see this thing in anthropic.

Like, do you actually own the shares? So, you know, I don't think I'm not religious that you need to only have the issuer sponsored mechanism. I think there's a market for the SPV model. And then on the issue or sponsored side, that's where they're going up against DTCC. It's still not a T0, right? So they've got this T1 model. So then that goes back to my point of like, are the banks going to work on weekends? You know, that's one of the major questions.

I think they will. The AMC question is really interesting because obviously he went, you know, head-to-head with Vlad from Robin Hood. That was one of the funniest tweets ever. I don't remember exactly what Flats said. But what's your concern or whatever it was? Well, should be memed into the future. But basically saying, you know, that you have no right to tokenize Robin Hood in this manner.

We didn't give you permission. And there's no dividends and no stock rights, no voter rights. The SEC actually very quickly came out with the innovation exemption that really explained what would be viewed as a compliant, tokenized asset and how they would trade and really answered a lot of his questions. I mean, they said, you know, these are going to have to be backed one for one. They're going to have to have all the rights that accrue that a normal stock would. They'd have to be custodied in a certain way. I would imagine in that world, an AMCCE CEO would say, thank you for the liquidity and thank you for the volume.

And I encourage this, right? So the SEC, I think very quickly answered that question, at least for what's going to be available on platforms in the United States. I'm sure Robin Hood's going to pivot very quickly to be compliant with that. Yeah. So, I mean, yeah, it's an inferior product for the U.S. investor because in their e-trade account, they do get those rights and privileges. So that makes it like a niche product for emerging markets. And then if, and then on the issue or sponsored side, it remains to be seen, what's the incentive for the consumer? Like, why are they going to prefer that to just going into e-trade? Obviously, Robin Hood looks like a winner kind of.

either way here, right? Because they're taking share among the younger generation, like, tokenization, uh, optionality. That's better than any of these existing tradfi. Uh, but I'm kind of just, I believe it when I see it in terms of like putting, uh, there's not tons of ways to, ways to play it in the, in the public markets anyway, beyond a very kind of fragmented, uh, exchange ecosystem. Yeah. Yeah. And, really, we have this race towards the everybody do everything all the time for all of these exchanges both from tradfi i think and from the crypto side robin had had some pretty major announcements i think you know over the past few days at the hood summit i mean coinbase is offering Pokemon rips now right i mean

they announced that these guys all of these guys are going to do quite literally everything exactly exactly they all yeah so market i mean i think they do because it's easier tokenization makes it kind of easier and faster to spin up these products and they're going after the, you know, memetic kind of waves. But I think it makes it very hard to underwrite the durability of any given platform. You know, we saw that kind of like agentic bank run note from Apollo on Monday, you know, very interesting. These companies are going to be cat and mousing to build like moats within a boat that's getting flooded all the time. And yeah, it's just consumer switching costs are lower.

You know, that should bring margins down. There'll be a few winners, but many more losers. Yeah, it's like, it kind of takes the shine off of the alt coin market to me that you can speculate on everything all of the time anywhere and probably with leverage. Right. So, like, how do you right now view the alt coin market and what's coming on? Obviously, I think we've seen a consolidation and interest into those that have some sort of valuation model and utility, maybe, right? And maybe there's going to be a have and have-nots like that.

But, I mean, do you think that we're going to, you know, if we're entering a new cycle, do you think we'll see an alt season? And if we do, what would it look like versus those of the past? Yeah, great question. And if you look at my exposure in Node, and I'm trying to outperform Bitcoin over the cycle without taking much more risk than Bitcoin. So in other words, have a volatility profile, which is comparable to Bitcoin. And most all coins are like, you know, 2 to 3x that. And we've learned over the years, institutions, advisors who are kind of an end market. for node. They don't want that type of volatility. Very few people do. And, you know, arguably,

these public companies from Robin Hood to Circle to Stripe, who, you know, maybe someday will be public, they're internalizing a lot of the function that the open source chains, so-called open source chains, used to do or used to promise. And then you still, because clarity didn't pass, There's no investor protection in terms of unbundling the related party transactions that go on in the token world, the token versus the equity versus the foundation, all that nonsense where you're never quite sure who is doing what unless you're an insider. Right. So with all that caveat that I think the regulated market has taken market share legitimately from the open source chains. I like, you know, I like proof of work stuff. So largest allocation by far, Bitcoin, it's like 16% of this fund. Zcash is like 2% through appreciation, you know. You can hit the click more.

If you scroll down there on the yellow, show more, yeah. So Zcash is 1%. And then even lower, I have, you know, like 1.5% ETH. 70, 80 basis points, hyperliquid, 50 bibs canton. So add all that all coin exposure up. It's like 6%. And that's because the experience I want to provide is not one where, you know, you can be down 90% and a 10% position is just not acceptable to most allocators.

I can ask you. So ZECATs naturally became 2% of the portfolio because of performance. Yes. Right. Okay. So that you didn't necessarily allocate 2% versus an ETH at 1%. I think we put in like 40 basis points. Yep. Five X as a percentage of the portfolio. So that just shows you how. But that, I guess that's my point, is that there is some sort of alt season going on. It's just very selective alts. Yeah, it is. I'm not going to like pump any, any individual here. It's just my conviction level.

expressed through the, you can see it. You can see it right here. But you're obviously not. So I guess the next natural question is you're also limited because it has to be publicly traded, right? So you're not buying pure all coins, these are ETFs of all coins. So maybe you're limited to how long the tail is. If you had access, are there, you know, would you consider things that are, you know, number 25 or 50 on coin market cap? I guess there's like, for example, there's a near ETF just launched, right?

So is that something that, in theory, could be on the waiting list? Yes. So anything that has an ETF, we can buy. We can hold up to 25% in such products, so kind of ETFs on coins. We can also own DATs, but we've been negative on DATs. Like, if you want the leverage, go take it yourself. You don't have to pay for unpredictable leverage and executive comp and all that and all that stuff. Although there's, you know, there's times when it makes sense.

Interestingly, State Street, yeah, State streets are custodian for this fund on the equity side. They may soon have a token custody product. So we may change the, we're thinking about changing the rules and allowing us to just own tokens directly if it could be through something like a state street. And then, you know. Through what ticker? How would you actually get that exposure? I understand the notion that if they're custodying, that you then could theoretically do it. But what would be the actual vehicle that you would do it through?

or you would just own the token and they would custody and it would be in the fund. Yeah. So this fund has a Cayman subsidiary, which holds the crypto ETFs because they're commodities. So that Cayman subsidiary can hold up to 25% of the assets of the fund. So it would sit in the Cayman sub. But it could be actual tokens, which is interesting. Yeah. Very pretty big change.

I mean, not the case now, but, you know, counterparty like State Street's a big deal for, for the institutional world. What's the timing on something like that? I mean, we've been hearing about that. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. Like AB-121 kind of prevented the state streets and BNY Mellons from being able to custody because they had to obviously have assets, cash on the other side of the balance sheet to offset

these because they were going to be viewed as liabilities. That's gone. So in theory, you'd think they'd be able to do this. Yeah, they're, they are now able. It's just a matter of, like, getting it totally. buttoned up. Do you think that we're sort of at the tail end of the individual asset crypto ETFs? I'm still waiting for the boom in indexed products because I do that as the way that people invest, you know, like a defy index, a top 10 index, a meme coin index. I don't know what they would be,

but, you know, I was actually surprised to see that near launch from, I guess it was bitwise, right? Because I've, you know, last I'd spoken to Matt, he was like, I think we might be, you know, hyperliquid might be the end of that, what the market can sustain. Yeah, I mean, there's always going to be some alt, which, whose performance is so great that they're sitting on a massive treasury and willing to kind of see these things to the point where there's no downside for the issuer. But the market share changes in this space. Like, I have the Zcash. I've followed the near, you know, intent. logic. I'm just not entirely convinced it's a it's a durable moat. You can see some my tweet replies on that in the last couple days like so I'm just yeah we've been more we've been pretty cautious on the on the single token ETFs. I've seen here or you know and I own near one of the very few things I do own from previously but you know I think it's writing a narrative more than something fundamental and to your point

right so like if a i crypto crossover really becomes a thing there's nothing stopping anyone else from doing what nears doing i guess is sort of what you're saying there right yeah it was around like the zcash um you know it's not that's not a permissionless swap there of zcash like they're able to stop it uh or the lps who kind of execute those intents i guess you know they do their own kind of sanctions monitoring and just uh Yeah, just not for me, risk reward. Anything else on your mind before I let you go? Anything I might have missed?

We did it all, brother. Good. I love it. I love it, man. Well, thank you so much. I'm going to stay on for a few more minutes after you leave. Appreciate it. Next time, we'll wear white t-shirts together. Catch you later.

Okay, catch later, man. Thank you very much. All right. Cool. Matt's gone. There it goes. I mean, do you like my New York City? You show that camera so I can show the, does it look like, does that, it's a screen.

But it's not a green screen, it's a real screen. I think it looks pretty sweet. I vibe-coded that. What do you guys think? ChatGPT made that for me. Next, we got to go into Higgs field and add the movement in the clouds, but every time we do that, the building starts moving. I was like, oh, this is really cool. And then I saw the top of the building was moving with the clouds.

I'm not good at the AIs. as I say. So since I have your attention still, and that is gone, and we kind of brought up those charts. We haven't really run through a couple charts in quite a while, so it's a good time. Listen, you'll know that my channel originally was a technical analysis and trading channel, and then I realized that providing technical analysis and trade ideas to people was really great idea in a bull market and really horrible when things go wrong because they blame you for not being able to pay their bills and their kids being sick and their car breaking down.

Right, you're responsible for everything, but I do still like to, every once in a while, dabble in the charts. I'm going to once again bring up the Bitcoin chart here on the weekly, and once again remind you that, first of all, it bounced off the 200 M.A., which is exactly what's supposed to happen at the bottom of a bear market. It launched absolutely from it on volume

and eventually broke above the 50MA here on the weekly with the 200 M.A. moving up, and is now currently on the week, holding above that former humongous resistance as support, which is a higher high, which is the end of a bare market. Take a look at it on the daily. It's even kind of more clear, right? This was the last high. It's above it. And we have one, two, three, four, almost today, the fifth day that it's been tested this week as support and has held. And you have the 50MA rising rapidly and the 200 MA has rolled over to the top, rolled up, right,

when we had that huge move and is headed up, which is extremely, extremely encouraging. Now, take you a look at the macro charts, as I mentioned before. I mean, you have gold, which looks like it's rolling over below the 50MA. So the gold correlation, I think, is going to become weaker and weaker. And then, as I mentioned to McGlone and others the last few days, I mean, TLT, this is the long bond, making new all-time lows and cap down even further today.

I mean, it's in the 76 range. Bonds are absolutely getting slaughtered, and that's because of the tenure. I mean, if this was an alt-coin, you would be retiring. You just bought down here. Someone's funny. Someone somebody was like,

how do I long this chart? I'm like, you short TLT. Right? But I mean, this is, in a world where we got an inflation print, what, yesterday? PCE came in soft on every metric yesterday, if you recall, with a strong labor market, meaning that there should have been less

pressure on yields because you would think that the Fed's not going to hike. And this is absolutely flying. I don't understand how nothing has broken yet, but here we are. And to take a quick look at ETH, I really like the Ethereum chart. This is ETH versus Bitcoin, by the way. Right? So it had this very clear breakout back in July. Once again, this is on the Daily You have the 50 MA up, 200 MAA up. These are bull market things and very clearly you're making higher lows up into a flat top, an ascending triangle. So this looks like itchap. You take a look at it versus USD and it clearly had a massive breakout here, right?

Which happened on the daily back in August and now has pushed up to the next key kind of level around 2,800 and is just chopping sideways and is kind of leveled up from here. So I just take a look at all of the market right now. I haven't looked at Salana. I just brought it up. Salana looks, uh, see, Salinas actually made a death cross there, which usually to me is a good sign because that the bear market is ending. But Salana, too, like broke out from, you don't need to be a genius to draw this chart. I mean, take a look.

Just pop something in right around here, you know, or you can call it here. It doesn't matter. It has broken out of that consolidation, much like everything else, and is popping. And look, high, low, lower high, lower low. Lower high, lower low. Breaking above it. Same thing. These are bull market charts. Take a look, or new bull market, entering a new bull market chart. I mean, look at that. That's kind of what I was just talking about with Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin broke out. Take a look. Bitcoin breaks above this level, consolidates against it. Salana breaks above this level, consolidates against it. That was down to 87, 97 bucks.

and pops, right? Listen, charts don't tell you the future. I think they're kind of astrology for men, but what a chart does is it tells you where people are likely to make bad decisions, and you can use them. And I think that that is a very, very compelling stuff right here. And most notably, if you are trading Bitcoin or selling it to fun things, you don't actually have to. We have an incredible sponsor today on Thursday, which is Nexo. The link is down on the description. You're all in one digital asset platform. We do not live in a world anymore where you need to sell your Bitcoin to fund things. You can very simply take a reasonable interest loan against it. If Bitcoin continues up from there, by the way, these loans effectively become

free. And if they go down, you need a major downside move to even start talking about being liquidated or having any sort of negative situation. I mean, I think these things are only maturing and as there's more competition, the rates are going to come down. But you can do this right now and you can do it in the United States, including California on NXO, who survived all of the fun and all of the down markets that we've had before and continuing to do this. Great product. I highly encourage all of you to check it out. That was fun doing charts. Do you guys remember Chartapalooza?

Is anyone still here from Charter Paloza? My first streams, I'll never forget. I was sitting in my house. I knew nothing about streaming. I had a podcast. It was audio only. And I pushed some button and I figured out how to use Stream Yard. And I freaked out for like three minutes that I had figured out how to stream. That was the first three minutes of my first stream ever was me just in shock that I actually figured out how to do it.

No producer, no thumbnail, no nothing. And I just sat there and charted. Yeah. Yeah. Awesome. All right, guys. That is all that we have for you today on this Thursday. I'll be back tomorrow. Now I can't remember who our guest is, so I'm not going to tell you.

I know I'm interviewing Hunter Horsley tomorrow for the Sunday podcast, the CEO of Bitwise, which will be, of course, predictably amazing. And tomorrow we'll have the weekly reckoning as well, which we missed last week when I had the recorded interview with Joseph Shlome from

Sharpling. All right, guys. It's all I got for you today. See you on The Daily Wolf. Wow. Let's go. My reg league goalie says he plays for the love of the game. You gave up six goals last week, Steve? Maybe play to win, huh?

Like with Bet365. I get paid the second my team goes up big with early payout and can cash out at any time before the game ends. Steve, Bet365, the home of winning early. Must be 19 and older. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you were someone you know is concerns about gambling,

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