The Wolf Of All Streets - Bitcoin To $150K, Ethereum To $8K By The End Of The Year | Is This Target Achievable? | Mark Yusko

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

Mark Yusko, and, of course, his brother, join me today to unpack the latest in crypto. And there is a lot: Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chattered's year-end predictions, Do Kwon's and CZ's cases updates, and more! Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/markyusko Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►► Sponsored by DevvE DevvE is a next-generation cryptocurrency - DevvE addresses Bitcoin’s most significant weaknesses—regulatory compliance, energy consumption, costs and speed! 👉 Follow DevvE on X for Updates: https://twitter.com/DevveEcosystem   👉 Join the DevvE Telegram group to stay in the know! https://t.me/DevveOfficial   ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘25OFF’ FOR 25% OFF WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading  Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:30 Peter Schiff 3:00 Bitcoin to $150K? 12:50 IMF report 24:40 BlackRock & Ethereum ETF 29:00 Devve 30:00 Chris Inks: are we dead? 31:20 Bitcoin chart 38:45 Ethereum 40:50 Algorand 43:00 HUT 45:05 Solana 47:40 Dogwifhat 49:00 Wrap up The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Famed hyperbolic price predicting financial institution Standard Chartered says that they still believe Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2024 and that Ethereum will hit $8,000, but retracting their bet that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved by May. Seems pretty obvious that's probably not going to happen in the coming weeks, but maybe Gary Gensler has a surprise in store for us. I'll just say that I have my doubts. I have one of my absolute favorite guests, as you know. Today, Mark Yusko, we're going to talk about this, a proposed bet with Peter Schiff, and who knows? Never know what topics we're going to get into. And of course, Texas West Capital on the back end. Really excited for today, guys. Let's go.

What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of All Streets. Before we Let's go. interviewing Peter at noon today for the podcast. Yeah. Yeah. But look, I don't want, I don't want you to buzz kill your time with Peter. Yeah. He doesn't want to take the bet. He won't even respond. Um, and so, but you know, someone tweeted at me that, look, if he took, if he took all the bets that people threw at him, you know, all I do is manage best. I'm like, then them just be quiet. Right. Don't talk nonsense. you don't want to put up your capital where your mouth is. But I wouldn't ruin your discussion with you. The odds of gold outperforming Bitcoin, very slim. Anything's possible, but very slim. Anything's possible, but here's the thing. This whole idea that there is this small group of people that use this nonsensical idea that this technology that's going to be foundational to the future of financial services is somehow going to disappear and go to zero for engagement farming is kind of silly. I mean, it's just tiresome. It's just tiresome. Yeah, he's just a troll. He uses it, like you

said, for engagement farming. At some point, you just kind of laugh and, you know, but he does have a huge audience. So maybe it's not the best thing for us. Just a really quick look at the market before we get into this prediction. I mean, Bitcoin's up 7% in seven days, basically since the halving, right? So actually looking pretty good, ranging sideways, but we are up since the halving, more than gold is, by the way, if we're going to take that to bait. And altcoins looking relatively strong. But here's that prediction. We said anything can happen right there talking about gold beating Bitcoin. Can we really see $150,000 Bitcoin this year, $8,000 Ethereum? I think we would both agree, definitely possible by cycle end. 2024 could be relatively early in the cycle. Well, yes and no, right? I mean, the history tells us that the 12 months following the halving are the hyperbolic move cycle.

And that makes sense, right? Just logically, what does the halving do? Well, it cuts the supply of block rewards that pay the miners for securing the network. So if the miners costs are relatively fixed and their revenue goes down, in theory, a whole bunch of them would go away unless the price were to move. I think it's one of the most ingenious parts of the code. And there's a lot of ingenious parts to the code.

But the fact is in every previous having, basically what happens to the code. But the fact is, in every previous halving, basically what happens is the fair value of the network doubles. Now, there is one nuance this time. And, you know, I don't know if you've been following it very closely, but, you know, there's the whole development of ordinals a year plus ago. And now as of the halving, there was this development of runes, basically meme coins or the technology to do meme coins on, on Bitcoin. And,

you know, everybody's talking about it and some people hate it and some people love it. The reality is what it does is it generates a lot of transaction fees and transaction fees also reward the miners. So I think this time, instead of the fair value today, Tim Peterson would tell you somewhere in the low 50s, I'll even round down to be conservative to 50.

Normally in a halving that goes to 100. But let's say this time it only goes to 80 because the transaction fee offset. You know, that's just that's made up math. But but it sounds it sounds right. And then in a normal cycle, we go to 2.3 X fair value because of the FOMO and all the momentum and the leverage. But I think leverage is lower this time. So do we get to 150? Yeah, I think we get to 200. Fair value is 80 and we, you know, two and a half exit, we get to 200. I think we double this time. So let's say 150, 160,

and that would be by April, May of 25. So by the end of this, now, I think it all depends. I've been saying that this can be the best Thanksgiving ever, right? No more, you're not welcome because you're a crypto person in the family. People are gonna be like, oh, come on, come on, come. It's gonna be awesome. And people are gonna celebrate the crypto people in the family this year. And so if that FOMO period is like the previous two, where from November to December, you know, go up orders of magnitude. I mean, remember, we went from 10,000 to 20,000 in eight weeks. And very quickly to 42 once we eventually broke it the next time.

Yeah. Right. I mean, with the Elon Musk buying Tesla news, I think sent it to 40 that time in that cycle. So we have the four-year cycle. It's been reliable. The halving has been reliable. Doesn't mean it will happen this time. There is a few other differences besides the transaction fees that you mentioned. Obviously, we've preempted the halving with an all-time high,

which we've never done before. And this time, I think the halving, when you actually look at how much supply is reduced in dollar terms relative to the amount of volume we're getting from ETFs and other factors is minimal, right? I mean, you're talking about a few billion dollars in supply reduced over the period of a year, which now becomes 10 days of outflows in GBTC, right? Or like five days of strong buying on IBIT. It's a really important point, right? There are multiple factors in markets. And the biggest one really is supply and demand, basic econ 101. And we had a pretty significant demand shift. And it hasn't fully played out.

In fact, it hasn't even come close to fully playing out. The math that always amazes me, I believe in the next 12 months-ish, so we're a couple months, about three months into the ETF, and we've gotten about 10% of what I believe is coming into this space from the registered investment advisors that control all the boomers cash so the boomers have 30 odd trillion with these financial advisors not all of them will my ubs still hasn't said i can buy gbi uh ibit in my in my account right it's my money my account i can't buy it because they know what's good for Vanguard, same thing. So there's gonna be 300 billion, I believe that's 1% of 30 trillion that comes in to this space. Scott, that's actually more money than has ever converted to

Bitcoin in 15 years. That's a pretty amazing thing. Because what people forget is that multiplier effect of the bid ask, right? I convert some fiat into Bitcoin, but then I don't want to sell it. So someone's got to bid a higher price to get me to sell. And so you get that multiplier. And I don't think the multiplier is whatever Bank of America says, 118. Yeah. When we were talking pennies or dollars or $10 or $20, the multiplier was really, really big. Today, I'm going to say the multiplier is probably more like 20-ish.

So $300 billion would add $6 trillion of market cap. Yeah, it's add six trillion of market cap. Yeah, it's a 5x on market cap, you know, and this demand isn't stopping. Right. So I I kind of shirk at the notion that that means price has to go up always because it pretends that the having is the only supply that there is. And we know that there are plenty of Bitcoin whales who will happily sell massive amounts of Bitcoin into any demand. But I just think with time, as you described, it can really only go up, right? Eventually, the sellers run out and these RIAs haven't unlocked, these individual platforms haven't unlocked. And I would make the contention, actually, that the people who buy into the ETFs are likely doing it in a retirement account and not even aware of these 10 or 15 percent retracements or corrections or crashes that we discuss ad nauseum. I look at my stock portfolio maybe once every six months.

They're not. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. If this is just in your stock portfolio, they don't need to be diamond handed. They just have to literally fall on their head and not look. Well, no, here's the crazy thing. In your 401k, not yours personally, but in people's 401k, they set the allocation on the day they start their job and they choose one over X. So if there are seven choices, they put one seventh in each and they

never change and they never rebalance, not ever. So people putting this in their 401k, I mean, not the 401k, in their retirement account, their IRA, it's over. And to your point, they're not going to stare at it. They're not going to stare at it they're not going to look at it and this idea that number go up that's not the point the point is the utility is going to continue to go up the embracing of the technology is going to continue to go up and at the end of the day, it is a finite asset. People say, well, you know, Satoshi could show up and add more. No, Jameson Lopp showed us the lines of code that prohibit that. It's like five lines, by the way. It's five lines of code prevent that entire narrative. But yeah.

And the thing is, fine, could 51% of the participants change that? Sure. But the likelihood of that happening is really low. And the reason behind it, why it might happen, could be really interesting. So it's kind of like a stock split. But all of that aside, the demand for blockchain technology, of which Bitcoin is a blockchain. I love this whole debate, right? Bitcoin, not blockchain. They're the same thing, right? We have the Bitcoin network that is a blockchain network. And the Bitcoin token, is a blockchain network and the Bitcoin token,

which secures the network through block rewards. I don't know why we debate this. It just makes no sense to me. Because it's fun for people to create any sort of narrative they can to hate us. I'm not sure if you saw this story. I completely missed it, I think, while I was traveling. It was on the 19th, but this one blew my mind. Did you see this? IMF says Bitcoin has become necessary financial tools for preserving wealth and financial instability. They wrote an entire report. You guys can check it out.

It's a very, very long PDF. But the IMF, World Bank, obviously, these have been public enemy number one, you know, outside of perhaps some legislators in the United States government that we don't need to name. They've been public enemy number one, you know, outside of perhaps some legislators in the United States government that we don't need to name. They've been public enemy number one. Every country that's even mentioned Bitcoin, they've said no more loans for you, no more soup for you. If you go for Bitcoin, we know that Argentina was very ready to follow in El Salvador's path and the IMF basically and World Bank threatened to withhold loans. I mean, listen, this isn't exactly a ringing endorsement necessarily if you read it, but they're admitting at least that here's what they said.

Bitcoin is increasingly serving as a critical channel for cross-border financial flows amid global financial instability. And the report highlighted significant transaction volumes originating from countries like Argentina and Venezuela, where citizens face hyperinflation and stringent financial controls. This is this blue absolutely blew my mind that I'm even reading something like this from the IMF. What's the angle? And and, you know, I I did what I normally do on those types of things. I do the hashtag probably a fad.

Right. It's probably a fad that one of the largest global lenders that is acknowledging that, yeah, there's this new technology. And it kind of threatens our hegemonic control of, look, if you want to impoverish a nation and control it, you lend them a bunch of money that you know they can't pay back, and then you seize their assets. China's really good at it. Look what they've done. And then you force them to use that money to hire American private corporations to do all of the work. It's a shocking system. And it's worked really, really well. And it works really, really well because the dollar has been this hegemonic currency. But that's now under threat. And threat has a negative connotation. It's evolving. And the reality is the dollar has not been the global reserve currency for the entirety of the world's existence. It just hasn't.

In fact, it's only been the hegemonic currency for a very short period of time, about 80 years. And, okay, yes, all of us who are living right now, that's our life cycle. But the reality is history is replete with examples of other countries, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, UK, having the upper hand, and they use the same process. Look, I think it's interesting. So if you lend money to people, individuals, it's a good business, right? The Medici's kind of invented it. They stole it from the Portuguese monks. And, you know, the nice thing is you can influence people to pay you back if they don't pay back, right? But it's not really that profitable relative to if the person defaults, what do you get?

You kind of get their stuff, and that stuff's not that valuable. So then you can lend to corporations. And if the corporation defaults, you can get the company. And some companies are actually worth a lot of money. Well, the Rothschild clan figured out, if we lend to governments, now we're talking. Because when the governments default, we get power and power creates massive wealth. And so lending to governments has been how you control things for centuries. And the fact is, if I want to send money to, I say, my mythical mother-in-law in El Salvador, who happens to be here in Chapel Hill, she just came from Tulsa to visit. But

if she were in El Salvador and I wanted to send her money, I would send a dollar and Western Union and the Bank of International Settlements and a whole bunch of other people would take their cut, and she'd get 70 pesos. Think about that, a 30% slippage. If I used the Strike app and sent her across the Bitcoin blockchain, she'd get 100 pesos. That's better than 70. Faster. And faster.

And, you know, I shameless shill, right? So I am getting involved with this group over in Japan. We want to create the, you know, micro strategy of Japan, this little company called Metaplanet. And I needed to fund my investment. So I called UBS and said, I'd like to send this money over to Tokyo and say, oh yeah, that'll take two days. What do you mean? It'll take two days. I need it there this morning. They're like, no, two days, you know, cause we got to convert the current. I'm like, you push a button. And, but no, I said, well then just give me the money and I'll send it with a stable coin. Like, oh no, you can only withdraw $25,000 a day.

Yeah, I can't do that. Scott, it was insane. So we did get it done. It happens all the time. And then to the, I think even the more specific point of this IMF piece, if you're looking into it, is that it solves the micropayment issue to some degree. Now, listen, I'm not going to pretend that everybody, you know, it can talk about wealthy people not

being able to get access to their million dollars in two days. But what about someone who needs to get money from the United States to Africa and it's 10 bucks or from two countries in Africa and it's 10 bucks, right? But the reality is the IMF is correct here. I think people are using Bitcoin because it's uncensorable. But most people who are not at least in fear of their government are using Tether on Tron. That's what's happening. I think now $53 billion of the Tether market cap is on Tron because it's cheaper, faster. And those people aren't fearful of their government, maybe, and don't care about the decentralization. I'm not saying it's right. I'm saying it's a fact. No, look, and I mean, speed and low cost are really, really important. I mean,

I've had this debate with people recently. The fact that the Solana network crashes all the time and it gets overloaded and transactions fail, yeah, that's a problem. But the reality is when it works and I can send USDC instantaneously for fractions of a penny anywhere in the world, that's better. And someone asked a question I thought was interesting, said, if Ethereum didn't exist and it was invented today, would anybody use it? Okay. That's interesting, right? Because it is slower and more expensive than Solana and others. So why would you go that way?

Well, the reality is it wasn't invented second. It was invented first and has a larger installed base of developers. So it's not the best technology that wins. It's the technology that gets critical mass first. That's how winning wins. Right. But it's got the TVL, right? So the money's there. And so it's easier for larger players to move. But that makes the building on Bitcoin argument compelling. I think it's going to take a long time. People keep asking for this. You don't even have a stable coin. I mean, look, this is huge. This is huge. And that's why I went down the runes rabbit hole

and the ordinals rabbit hole and I set up a node and I wasn't very successful. I couldn't do the command line very well, but I did. I went total DGN and I just, you know, I kind of worship at the feet of the real degens like Trevor and Casey and those guys. But because they're brilliant and they can code. I can't code. But the bottom line is why? Why did I care about this stuff? Well, because you and I have talked about this. I keep going back between the, you know, are we going to look like Web 1, Web 2 with a protocol stack?

Are we going to have all these L1s? And then you've got a bridge. L7s, yeah. And the bridges are really crappy, except the Chainlink guys go, no, no, no, we're great. We've solved it. And I'm like, okay, I'll take your word for it. And then you got the Algo people and you got, I mean, there's all kinds of people saying they've solved this, but the reality is I keep kind of coming

back to the Lord of the Rings, one chain to rule all chains, which is proof of work is better than all the others. It just is. It's more secure. And if I'm going to have an asset that I want, I'd rather have it on chain than a pointer to an AWS server. So if you think about what ordinals and inscriptions and runes do, that they're superior, I think, to traditional NFTs. So we're starting to get to the point where you could have L2s and L3s on Bitcoin. And we really do have one chain to rule all chains, but it'll take a while because there are other things out there. It's going to take a long while, but it lends to this argument that whether intentionally or not, these other chains ended up being a bit of a test net for what can be built on Bitcoin. And perhaps they went through some

of the struggles that people could avoid, you know, sort of looking at the mistakes of other chains. But that said, I think this is a really long process. We don't even have a stable coin on Bitcoin. No, but look, that's how technology evolves, right? People forget, right? There are five protocols. And really, the one we're using right now, TCPIP, is the one that most of us use all day, right? You got SMTP and HTTPS, and we use those too. But again, there's only five. There were 80 in the 60s and 70s and 80s. And no one was sure which ones were going to survive. And people made bets on, but we ended up with five. And the same thing's going to happen now, right? Is there's going to be a lot of experimentation and a lot of innovation and

some scams. But there's always scams. There's scams in every technological evolution. Part of the reason is where does technology start? It starts on the fringe, right? It doesn't start at the center because the center is ruled by the incumbents and the incumbents don't like the people on the fringe and so they keep them out there. And I go back to pagers, right? Drug dealers. Drug dealers. Internet. Yeah, internet. Yeah.

Well, you know what's funny, Scott? Yeah, Big Point Silk Road. Ross is still paying for that one. You know, it's. Well, no. So I bought this house in Chapel Hill, you know, 15 years ago. And we walked in. And there's this giant server room like with air conditioning.

And we're like, what the hell is that? What was the guy doing before? I can only surmise what he was doing. So I'm assuming it's a nice house and whatever he was doing paid for it. So yeah, exactly. Exactly. Assuming it was legal. Nothing bad to say there. So I have to ask you a question. We've run out of time so yeah, exactly. Exactly. Assuming it was legal. Nothing bad to say there.

So I have to ask you a question. God, we've run out of time so fast, Mark. It's ridiculous. So I talked about the Ethereum spot ETF before. I don't think many people are expecting this approval in May at all. Nope. The thing I need squared here, though,

is BlackRock never loses and they're a filer here. So, you know, we're getting comments on BlackRock. They could retract the application and not take the loss, by know, we're getting comments on BlackRock. They could retract the application and not take the loss, by the way, for people who are not counting. But how do we sort of, how do we reconcile that? I mean, they've only been rejected once. They're 576 and one, I think. I know. It's a great point. It's a great point. And I don't, I actually don't have an answer for it. They don't lose ever. Well, one time. And I was surprised that they kind of stuck their head in given how vociferously Gigi has spoken out against it.

The problem here is there's no legal precedent pressure like there was with BTC. I mean, he said, look, I wouldn't have approved the BTC, but I – I'll follow the law. Yeah, I'll respect the courts. So I don't think – I don't know. It's hard for me to see BlackRock taking a loss. I'm with you. Yeah, maybe there's just a way this continues to get delayed beyond Gary. And, uh, I, you know, I don't, I don't know what the process would be,

but I think they'd need a decision earlier than that. I mean, Larry Fink is really walking the walk right now. And I'll even make a theory that, uh, he does it just to piss Gary Gensler off. Maybe he filed for this just because he doesn't like the guy, because if you watch every time Gary Gensler, the sec comes out strong in something, that's when Larry Fink, all of a sudden, two days later is on TV contradicting everything the SEC is saying. You know, I like that theory a lot. I do. Because it's kind of like why Jamie Dimon always takes the other side, right? There's this, this coordinated tension because it, it, one, it creates engagement, but I like that theory. Yeah, it works.

Yeah. I mean, I don't, I don't know why that would be, but it, it feels like nobody likes Gary in my mind, my, in my dreams, nobody likes Gary Gensler. Well, the only people that like Gary are the people. and again, we don't have time to finish this conversation, but Operation Chokepoint 2.0 is all about installing Gary as the heavy. And it started five days after the inauguration of Biden with the creation of FTX and a series of related. Remember, Gary worked for Caroline's dad. Let's just always remember that. Let's always, always remember that. It's not an accident that all of those things are tied together. It's not an accident.

It never is, Mark. Any final thoughts before I'm forced to let you go? I know. And look, I mean, it's great to see you. Great to see you back in the States. Are you doing Consensus or Bitcoin Nashville? I, I, I'm, I'm not, I shouldn't say mad, but I'm, I'm, I'm frustrated because, you know, I, I love Nashville and I'm totally fine with them moving the show to Nashville, but don't move the dates because the dates they picked happened to be our summer vacation. And my wife is not letting me not go on summer vacation. So, so I'm going to miss it, but maybe consensus in Austin, the end of May,

maybe that one, that one's more likely. I'll try to convince you. Everybody, please follow, follow Mark. Of course you already do, but Hey,

if there's one of you out there that doesn't follow Mark, you just go yet. Please do that. Mark, always a pleasure. Look forward to seeing you soon. Hopefully. Thanks.

Talk to you soon. Later. Mark was the first person, actually, who ever howled on my podcast when it was audio only. I remember it was in the COVID days. I was locked in. Man, it was terrible. We used to howl when we would do podcasts. Mark and I

have been chatting for a long time. Listening to him has taught me more than listening to most, I have to say. Before we move on to Texas West Capital, the man, Christopher Hanks. Speaking of people I've learned the most from, two of them on the show together today, Mark and Chris, of course. But I got to talk to you guys about Debbie Igniting, a brighter future, unmatched performance, unmatched value. Guys, I've been talking about them.

Wow. See, I didn't even size my screen today. Look at that. Doesn't that look better? I've been talking about them now for months. The world's fastest, smartest, most scalable and affordable layer one, obviously being adopted by governments now and large corporations, fighting the fight on ESG for the places that are required to do that. I'm going to hopefully get Ray, the CEO, on very soon. I think I mentioned that I met him in Paris. We had a nice chat on the escalators in the Louvre and then sort of strolling through the Louvre. But absolutely monster team that's building this thing.

And the adoption and licensing is real. There's no affiliate link, no anything. Just want you guys to check them out. So click on that website when you get a chance and you're going to put on the little uh banner here at the bottom boom there it is and now the other guy who's taught me so much bear market right dad we're dead going to zero always right i mean you know it's only been since november of 2022 that we've been rallying. So, you know, we've only been dead for, what, a year prior as it went down there. And now, a year plus.

I think Bitcoin's been dying since the day I got here. Oh, it's dropping right now. I see people in the nothing but blood. It's like down like a few hundred bucks. You know, now, it's funny. Like, you can't have the same reaction to a $500 move when price is $66,000 as you did when price was $3,000. But they're going to try though. Logarithmic charts, people. That's why we use logarithmic charts instead of linear charts because the percentage move matters a hell of

a lot more than the actual amount. That's right. That's the way we think. I used to always explain it as when you get into trading and you enter enter you're looking to make you know x percent you're looking to make you know five percent or ten percent you're not looking to make a hundred bucks you know a hundred bucks at a thousand dollars is ten percent you know at ten thousand you know it's one percent so um for the math that's one percent we're gonna be at two hundred and fifty thousand dollars like somewhere in the next cycle it's gonna go down go down 1,000, and we're going to have people in the comments, it's over, man, selling everything. Blood.

Yeah, and it'll do it in 15 seconds or something at that point. Nobody makes me bleed my own blood. All right, let's look at the charts. We're going to obviously, I'm assuming, start here with Bitcoin and what we can look at. Listen, we're just ranging to me, right? Same thing. Some will say it's distribution. To me, it looks like reaccumulation,

but a break of the range in either direction will tell us eventually. But what are you looking at? Yeah, I mean, you know, again, same thing, but talking about 40 plus days. Now we're just in this range. So you can't even really say that it's a pullback. It's a range.

It's just sideways. You know, I've been yelling since the, since we, you know, started pulling back off the top here that we needed to break down below this swing low. That's the last lower or the last higher low off that, um, bear market swing low. So the, you know, we were in this bullish market structure, uh, macro, uh, coming off that, that, that 2022 November low, this is the point we actually have to break, but it's not even just break. We have to break down, close below it. We have to, um, rally back up and then we have to break down below that low

to actually say, okay, now we may get a pullback. Um, you know, and, and so people get caught all the time with their, you know, they, they try to, to, you know, get the breakout or the breakdown and they get trapped. I mean, this is a 12 hour chart, got trapped here, got trapped again. You know, it's just, it looks to be a spring here below the range low and we've rallied back up mid range. So for me locally right now, you know, as I've been talking about there on Twitter, if we get a pullback, I'm looking for the hourly pivot here to hold the support. That's around 63, 800, 63, 810. If it did happen to go through that, okay, we'll look down here at

the S1 pivot at the range low again, back down here around 60,760, but would still be a higher low off here. But ultimately, you know, we broke out above wave four here, which is what I've been talking about we needed to get. So if my count's correct, if this is a flat, which it appears to be in Elliott wave terms, ABC down, ABC up over 90% retracement of wave A and five waves down ending in any diagonal here, actually wave five, you know, it, you know, it does seem to be what it is. And so our first thing was impulsive breakout above this wedge resistance. We got that, we retested to be what it is. And so our first thing was impulsive breakout above this wedge resistance. We got that. We retested, we rallied up. Second thing was a breakout above wave four here. We got that. And really what we have to get is a breakout above wave B up here at

72, 756 or so. If we do that, that's going to add confidence to the account. It's going to say, we're going to new all-time highs. You know, I give all the bigger highs over 100 grand and people like, either they're like, yes, or they're like, oh my God, they have a cow, right? So if you're in that latter group, feel free to use the 84-236 target if we get the breakout there. But there, you know, again, I think we've talked about this before. It's not that high. What was that?

We were at 74-84. I know it sounds talked about this before. It's not that high. What was that? We were at 74, 84. I know it sounds crazy to people. It's not that high. It's really not. And here's the big thing. You know, according to the CME cot report, you know, CME is the largest Bitcoin futures market. You know, for a while now, for quite a while now, institutions have been increasing their long positions. Hedge funds have been increasing their short positions. And there is a record number of

shorts up here around the 73,000 area. So, you know, this is something I continue to talk about. If we pop into that, I see no reason why we won't just rock it on through 80,000. Yeah. I mean, it just, with that kind of short, with the number of shorts that are there, it should be quite a significant push through that. I haven't looked, but I think funding is actually still negative right now. Yeah. Like, which it hasn't been for, yeah, I mean, I'm looking right now. So, you know, red is usually when it's positive. So, I mean, it's very slightly, but people are leaning short right now and have been now for a long time. You don't usually see that for a sustained period of time. You really don't.

If you're looking for significant movement, that's usually the setup for the big reverse the other way. So, you know, again, we've been 40 somewhat days here sideways. Everybody's been convinced that this is the top. And for whatever reason that it's the cycle top, I just, it's a completely emotional response. There's just, it makes no sense in any way you look at it. People talk about triple tops. I'm not a big believer in triple tops. In terms of how low we would have to go to confirm that, what, 16,000?

Yeah, I would do that. The target of negative. Yeah. The target of- You know how low we would have to go to confirm that? What, 16,000? Yeah, I would do that. With the target of negative 20? It's ridiculous, right? But again, people are very emotional. This is the thing. If you're retail, you most likely don't have very much understanding of what's going on in markets as it is. And so a lot of people get on here and they have big followings and they'll say things that sound like they make sense because you don't know. Right. And it's unfortunate because, you know, I've been talking about, you know, you've been around me for quite a long time now. I've been talking basically since I got in this space in January, 2017, that this is going to be, this is this once in a generational type thing. This is your chance to go up multiple levels

of tax brackets, basically. You're able to go from nothing to generational wealth with Bitcoin. If you just do all right, if you learn, but again, most people come in and they don't want to learn. They just want to kind of, the way we all kind of started out, I think, you get in there and you try to get rich overnight. Very few people actually get beyond that mindset. Well, a lot of them get rich overnight and they get poor overnight. It's funny.

Well, yeah, exactly. So listen, we got Bitcoin sideways. When we're supposed to... When Bitcoin goes up and goes sideways, we're supposed to see massive, exciting alt seasons. Seems that this time we get like categorical alt seasons. I mean, coins run or AI coins run or RWA coins or whatever it is. Yeah. But again, I think that has to do with, I mean, we're cycling through narratives,

you know, on alt coins. But again, it's the same thing I've been talking about. I know Hunter and them over at Bitwise have been mentioning the same thing. You know, this idea that it's like an everything kind of season, right? Like Bitcoin is going to continue to go up and alts are going to continue to go up. And I think if you're playing alts, maybe pay attention to the narratives, but just understand getting out of Bitcoin to get into alts, you're likely not going to have a chance to get back into Bitcoin where you got out or lower or lower, which is what we've always done. Right. I mean, if you're looking at the weekly here on Bitcoin, the fact that we've got, let me just kind of pull this out here. The fact that we've got all

these very large wicks, these doji's coming off here, um, you know, and it's still holding same area here. You should not be anything but bullish seeing this. And look at Stoke. I don't even use Stoke RSI, but then, uh, you know, from here, I'm assuming that Stoke RSI at the bottom. Yeah. Yeah. And so, I mean, really, if you just look at the channel coming up here, we're really just more or less retesting that channel resistance off the, you know, off the swing low, the bear market swing low. I mean, there's, you look at this, you're like, there's absolutely nothing here that's bearish, but people are going to be bearish.

So, you know, I'm still looking for higher highs for Bitcoin. So it does make it- All right, so what does that mean for the rest? I see you got Solana and ETH up there. Is that what I'm seeing? Yeah, I've got a few here. I've got Ethereum real quick here.

Some people are freaking out about Ethereum. We had this we have this nice taking longer than we want chris isn't it always though especially ethereum this cycle so long it's taking so long uh let me see if we zoom out here to the daily uh as you can see we just got this great looking bull flag here um so we're through the eq we look for a target up of the channel resistance. If we can break out impulsively above that, which we should, that'll carry us above wave B. That'll confirm. And that gives us a target of about 5100. Still the same target I've had for months and months and months now.

So still looking up there toward 5100 on Ethereum. So, you know, if you've got Ethereum, if you've, you know, been worried about it because, you know, it hit this, the low prior to Bitcoin, right? So it hit its low over here. Bitcoin hit its low over here. But again, all this consolidation and then everybody's freaking out.

Remember this? Everybody's freaking out over here. They get, oh my God, it didn't go anywhere. And it just kind of ranged. We talked about it a few times and then boom, took off to get up to, you know, this, this kind of previous resistance area here. So, yeah, I mean, and that's just three of three of, of, of the larger three. So again, 5,100 and then 63 50 are kind of the, um, basic targets I'm looking at once we get a breakout above wave B here.

Uh, let's see here. I've got, I'll go real quick. I'll go ahead. By the way, I had just really quickly. I hadn't even looked. I just happened to pull up Eve here,

but look at the wicks in this, uh, and the candle, the last weekly candle. Yep. Yep. I mean, this is,

this looks ready to go. It's almost tweezer bottoms. It's like a, you know, dragon fly down here, tiny bottle bottom too long way upset. That looks ready. Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, again, it's just, you know, it's not moving fast enough and that becomes emotional and people, you know, when things go sideways, people start questioning whether it's going to continue going up.

So what are we going to do, though? Right. I'll go. I'll go. Good move. This is a three day daily. Can you zoom in there a little bit? Yeah. Just zoom in on the current price action. Yeah, let me get up there. So, yeah. So we had, you know, again, rally up to the daily pivot here. Get a little bit of a pullback.

Lot of volume coming in. It does appear to be three waves down. So if we're breaking out above 2903, so 0.2903, that should get us going for wave three. And wave three is up here at $1.39 or so. Minimum expected target. So the idea is we've got one wave up. We had almost a 61.8 pullback for the second wave. Third wave up there, 139.8. Looks good. That doesn't mean it goes right from here,

but there's going to be pullbacks along the way. But if you were to get in right here, you just put your stop loss right below the swing low. I'm looking on Binance and I'm just scrolling back to daily. I think that was the highest daily volume in history on ALGA. It's hard to see here, but if I bring it over, this one right here, it's slightly higher than this candle, slightly higher than this. Yeah, I think this is slightly higher than that, actually. So yeah, the highest or maybe the tide for the highest volume in history in a day. I mean, guys, you do need to look at the volume on a move to confirm what's happening behind it to some

degree, you know, so I just hadn't looked. That's pretty crazy. Yeah. And if you've been paying attention here, this dip right here, the bottom of wave uh actually ends up creating that bullish sfp below this uh whatever this is here what's this day uh january 23rd so you got that dip below close back up and then uh you know again you have this descending resistance here right at the s1 pivot i mean if you're paying attention to this you should have been looking to go long on a breakout here um and so you know again we got that rally i'll pull back i don't unless we break down below wave two i don't see any reason why wave three doesn't hit at least a dollar 39.8 hope um target what else we got here i know somebody was asking about hut a few people

have been asking about because they're into miners i've been talking about miners and everybody's kind of freaking out because they haven't just jumped up yet. I think miners still looking good. Right here, it looks like we've got a leading diagonal. So we've got like an ABC for one and then an ABC for three. And then we'll get an ABC up here for five. So based on the hideaway for here, we could see five rallying up to about $50.40. But locally here, looking for $20. 45 cents followed by 26, 35. I think that gets us then the pullback down here toward this weekly pivoted around, uh, around $13 and

35 cents. So we'll get like an a, a B, and then we'll get a C potentially as high as that $50 and 40 cents. And that'll just get us then a one we'll pull back for a two and then with three, because this is already a one two right here um so a lot of good movement off this um this march 16th of 2020 swing low good movement up three waves on the pullback so we're clean we're good there we've broken out above the uh the second wave so you know a b c broke out above that should confirm that we're heading up higher there so uh i had actually had juan leon uh from bitwise the senior crypto research analyst on my show uh well i think it was last week um and he was mentioning uh you know because somebody

asked you know why would you want to have miners instead of just bitcoin itself and he said you know one of the the reasons that you may think, but do I kind of similar with when you're looking at gold, right. And gold miners is that you're going to get a higher return play on that, right. You're going to get like a leveraged play. Beta. I beta. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, again, um, if, if you look at this goal, man, well, why the hell would I want to do, you know, miners? That's why, but you still got to look and see, okay, well, why the hell would I want to do, you know, minors? That's why, but you still got to look and see, okay, well, what minors are doing good. I still really like clean spark myself. Um, Wolf W U L F is looking good as well. Um, buddy, but you know, again, I got a lot of

questions about hut. So here's how it looks like. We're just kind of getting that leading diagonal heading off at low there. Um, I do have Saul here and i got saw because everybody freaked out on the pullback but when you put it into context when you put it into perspective this is the weekly chart uh it's really not a really huge move continue you know compared to the moves up and all we did was pull back to the previous resistance as support large lower wick closed back above the r1 pivot next candle look at this right here man i love this man you know i'm big on volume and volume and price action but you had this pullback right this this three-way pullback last the low candle here large lower wick big spike of volume

compared to the few previous few weeks right so it tells us there's a ton of demand showing up what happens on the next week last week little doji candle looks like you uh we'll do it can you zoom in it looks like eve did i was saying weekly i should yeah yeah so show people the beautiful candles you get this you get this beautiful reaction right so you get to a higher low but on bigger volumes so candle spread here. So the size of the candle body here, significantly larger than this little tiny candle spread here. Yet the second one had more volume. So what does that tell us? Guys, are you listening? It's telling us, it's telling us, this is free education right here. When you're seeing this,

it's telling us that you're producing more effort and getting a much less result here. So supply, looking pretty decent here coming in here, but demand is showing up with a large wick. Next one, supply is pushing even more effort. Very, very little result compared to here. So what does that tell us? That tells us we're going to get a flip. Most likely.

It tells us demand should then take out supply. And what are we getting this week? We're getting this rally up. So, you know, based on this local pullback here, price action targets about $302. Uh, but again, for me, I think easily we should hit 405 easy. Um, I don't think the reason why we don't break out above that overall, but I think right now we at least hit the, uh, three Oh two on this next move. Um, if you want to get more, less risk in it, uh, wait for a breakout above, uh, this interior swing higher to two, $204 and 46 cents. We break out above that, that locks that in as three waves down. That's corrective and we're rallying back up so but saul i mean you know for everybody freaking out about it looks like an amazing opportunity to get up here make some money

and then what else do i have here oh i've got a whiff here real quick you got the dog with hat with that right with uh this is the usd one on bin So, you know, it's this price action rate is as much as we got. But basically, based on this pullback here, again, one, two, three waves. So if we're breaking out above $4, I got to see on my chart here. What is this? This thing has a $3.5 billion market cap, by the way. $3.5 billion market cap is now 33rd. It's above $3.5 billion market cap, by the way. Yeah, crazy, right? $3.5 billion market cap is now 33rd. It's above Cosmos, Stellar, past Pepe.

Oh my gosh. Yeah, I'm just looking on the quarter market cap swap. Yeah, it's absolutely crazy. But once we break out here above this second wave, we just continue rallying here without breaking down. We break out above that $4.34. We should be looking minimally at about $8.41 up here on that move. So, you know, again, I think we've got a lot of opportunity. Do it.

We're never going to stop hearing about beam coins if WIF goes to $8, man. It's crazy, man. It's crazy. But, you know, we talked last week about how it was looking like the alt had probably altered probably bottomed out was starting to look good this week. We're getting a lot of confirmation on that. Um, so I, you know, I think, um, if you're really looking to trade, you know, just make sure you know what you're doing, make sure you do your proper risk management. But I think there's a lot of opportunity out there right now. Loving it guys follow Texas West capital. Of course, everything they're doing over there.

Amazing. So check out his Twitter, but then also check out the, what's the website now? I've actually got links where we're changed up the way we do it, the way we get people into it. So it'll be at texaswestcapital.com. That should be up here in another day or two. And then we'll have a lot more information about what we do and how we do it. And the reason why you should come in and really learn to actually understand why markets move the way they do and how to trade them effectively, proper risk management, all that stuff that people kind of gloss over. If it can work for an over an emotional dummy like me, and it can work for you too. That's my commercial. Everybody knows I learned at Texas West Capital,

just like the rest of you probably should. Guys, that's all we got for you too. That's my commercial. There you go. Everybody knows I learned at Texas West Capitol, just like the rest of you probably should. Guys, that's all we got for you today. See you on Spaces in 20 minutes. And then this afternoon with Wick for Trading Alpha. All right, guys. See you soon. Thanks, Chris. Bye. Let's go.